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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #401
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ERASES LOSSES. SUPPORT TARGETED


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair climbed before the Federal Funds Rate release, on the back of disappointing values for the U.S. CPI and Retail Sales. However, the Fed increased the rate to <1.25% as expected and Fed Chair Yellen was mostly hawkish during her Press Conference, so the US Dollar erased most of the previous losses.



    Technical Outlook

    The resistance at 1.1280 was breached yesterday but the bulls couldn’t break the barrier at 1.1300 and a hawkish Yellen press conference fuelled the greenback, erasing almost all losses. Strictly from a technical point of view, the pair is showing clear rejection at 1.1280 resistance and this makes the short term bias bearish. If the pair remains below 1.1240 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect a break of 1.1170.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The pair will not be affected by major economic indicator releases today, so the main focus will be on the technical aspect. The impact of yesterday’s events will likely extend to today’s trading session.


    GBP/USD

    Both the Pound and US Dollar were affected by disappointing data during the first part of yesterday’s trading session and this created a lot of back and forth action. Later in the day, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech was the catalyst for a move lower.



    Technical Outlook

    After breaking 1.2770 resistance and breaching the 50 period EMA, the pair reversed and is now trading below resistance once again. The pair remains volatile and without a clear direction but we believe that the hawkish stance adopted by Fed’s Yellen will generate additional downwards pressure. As long as the pair is trading below the Moving Average and below 1.2770 resistance, our bias is bearish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Retail Sales are released at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. Usually this indicator has a high impact, and numbers above forecast, which for today is -0.9%, strengthen the Pound.

    At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%), along with the Monetary Policy Summary, which contains insights into the reasons that determined the rate votes. Volatility is likely to surge, especially if there’s a notable change of stance in the MPC members’ votes.

  2. #402
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BACK WITH A VENGEANCE, FINISHING THE WEEK LOWER


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar continued the momentum started a day before by the hawkish Yellen press conference and the pair had a strongly bearish session, breaking support decisively.



    Technical Outlook

    The bears are definitely winning the short term battle on the back of US Dollar strength but the pair is approaching an important hurdle represented by the support at 1.1120. Last time the pair touched this support, it bounced strongly to the upside, so the same scenario may happen again. If that is the case, we will probably see a move into 1.1170, which may turn into resistance. As long as the pair is trading below 1.1170, our bias is bearish, anticipating a move into 1.1075.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Euro will be affected today at 9:00 am GMT by the release of the Final version of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. This is the least important version of the CPI, but still, numbers above the forecast 1.4% can strengthen the currency.

    On the US Dollar side we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, a survey that gauges the opinions of consumers about overall economic conditions. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 97.2; usually a reading above expectations strengthens the greenback.


    GBP/USD

    The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged as expected, but surprisingly, 3 out of the 8 MPC members voted for an increase. This generated Pound strength but some of the gains were erased soon after.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair continues to show choppy price action and although volatility is pretty high, the direction is unclear. Yesterday’s price action shows rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the pair is trading below 1.2770 resistance but on the other hand, the Pound is fuelled by the hawkish change in stance of the MPC voting members, so overall the pair is in neutral territory. As long as price remains below the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bearish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for today, so the main focus will be on the technical side but the pair will be influenced by the U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey.

  3. #403
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    FOREX NEWS: PRICE REACHES DYNAMIC RESISTANCE. BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday the US Dollar was weakened by disappointing values for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Building Permits, so overall the pair showed bullish price action, reaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



    Technical Outlook

    After coming close to 1.1120 support, price started to climb and stopped at the 50 EMA; however, this happened because the markets closed for the weekend, so we cannot say for sure if we are dealing with rejection or if the pair will continue upwards. The question will be answered today: a break will make 1.1240 the first target, while a bounce lower will take price into 1.1170 and possibly 1.1120. We slightly favour a move lower because lately the pair has been under bearish pressure.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The economic calendar lacks major events for both currencies in the pair, so the technical aspect will prevail. It must be noted however that FOMC Member Dudley will speak at 12:00 pm GMT and FOMC Member Evans will speak at 11:00 pm GMT and this could generate increased volatility but the impact depends on the matters discussed and cannot be anticipated.


    GBP/USD

    Price continued its choppy movement Friday and breached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average only to return below it almost immediately. Overall we didn’t see clear determination from either part, and the pair is mostly ranging.



    Technical Outlook

    The last candles are showing long wicks, mostly in their upper side, which is a sign of rejection. This makes us anticipate a drop below 1.2770 if the 50 period EMA is not broken. However, the pair lacks clear direction so we cannot rule out a bullish move, which will probably find resistance at 1.2820. Overall, we expect a slow trading session today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the main focus will be on the technical side.

  4. #404
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS RECOVERY SIGNS. SUPPORT IN DANGER


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the fundamental scene lacked any major releases and Mondays are typically slow days, so all this translated into slow trading, with price confined in a 50 pip range for most of the say.



    Technical Outlook

    Although yesterday the pair didn’t cover a lot of distance, it is now clear that the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is providing a strong resistance, rejecting price lower. If 1.1170 support can be broken decisively, we expect to see a move into 1.1120 but we cannot exclude the possibility of a bounce at 1.1170 and a move above the 50 EMA. If this is the case, then 1.1240 will become the first target. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA the bias is slightly bearish but neither side is in clear control.

    Fundamental Outlook

    FOMC Member Fischer will speak today at 12:00 pm GMT and later at 7:00 pm GMT, FOMC Member Kaplan will speak at a different venue. These speeches are the only notable events for today but we don’t expect them to trigger huge movement unless surprising matters are discussed.


    GBP/USD

    Trading remained choppy yesterday, as the pair continued to print candles with long wicks, showing indecision. However, later in the day the bears managed to take control and to take the pair below 1.2770.



    Technical Outlook

    The bearish momentum started yesterday is likely to continue during today’s session and we may see a move closer to 1.2690 but that target will not be reached during the course of one day probably, considering the lack strong movement seen during the last period. The Pound is under bearish pressure but it remains high-risk due to Brexit negotiations and an uncertain political scene.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today at 7:30 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Mansion House dinner, in London. The Pound is likely to show increased volatility at the time and as always, caution should be used when heads of central banks speak publicly.

  5. #405
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RULES THE ACTION, POUND WEAKENED BY CARNEY’S COMMENTS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair had a choppy session yesterday but overall the bears won the battle and broke 1.1170 after the bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



    Technical Outlook

    The next destination seems to be the support located at 1.1120, followed by 1.1075. The market has a bearish bias and the US Dollar is strengthening but a clear trend is not in place, so we will probably see moves to the north when price encounters support and the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold. As long as these potential rallies don’t extend past the 50 period EMA, our bias remains bearish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The economic scene remains slow today, with the U.S. Existing Home Sales being the only notable release. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the reported month (excluding new houses) and has a medium impact on the US Dollar. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 5.54 million.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound was weakened by dovish comments made by BOE Governor Carney during his speech at the Mansion House, so the pair showed a strongly bearish session yesterday, breaking the first support and even breaching 1.2635.



    Technical Outlook

    The minor support at 1.2690 was easily broken yesterday and the pair continued through the more important 1.2635. Now the next destination is 1.2570 and once price gets there, we anticipate a move higher due to the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and the fact that the pair traveled a long distance south in a relatively short period of time, without retracement.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today’s highlight for the Pound will be the release of the British Public Sector Net Borrowing, an indicator that shows the difference between spending and income for the public sector. A negative number shows excess and a positive number shows deficit; today’s forecast is a deficit of 7.3 billion, while the previous was 9.6 billion and usually a lower number strengthens the Pound but the impact is often mild. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT.

  6. #406
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    FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS EXPECTED, AHEAD OF BRITISH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Eurozone’s Final CPI that came out yesterday, matched the market consensus and the pair remained mostly unfazed by the release. Overall the session was mixed and the pair remained in a tight range.



    Technical Outlook

    After a brief dip below 1.1450, the Euro rallied and nullified the early losses. Now the pair seems headed towards the resistance at 1.1490 – 1.1500 but once that zone is reached, we expect to see a bounce lower. If the zone is broken, the extent of the move above it should be limited, mostly because price is overextended and the bearish pressure has increased. To the downside, if 1.1450 is broken, we expect a touch of the 50 EMA.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 275 German professional analysts and investors regarding the health of the German economy, as well as a 6-month outlook. The anticipated number is 17.6 and higher values usually strengthen the Euro but the impact of this survey has started to decrease.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound wasn’t affected by important economic data yesterday and the pair retraced lower, mostly due to technical reasons that we mentioned in yesterday’s briefing.



    Technical Outlook

    Bearish pressure has increased and we expect to see a move lower, possibly into the zone around 1.3030. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are turning down, coming out of overbought territory, which is a fact that supports a move lower. However, the pair still has strong upside momentum so after this potential pullback, the chances of a break of 1.3100 resistance will increase.

    Fundamental Outlook

    A high-impact indicator will affect the Pound today: the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the Bank of England when they decide on where to set the interest rate. Higher inflation eventually triggers a rate hike and this strengthens the Pound. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 2.9%.

  7. #407
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL THE WEAKEST IN THE BUNCH, POUND TUMBLES AFTER DISAPPOINTING CPI


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Despite the overextended condition of price, the pair made another strong push yesterday, approaching 2016’s high at 1.1616. The German ZEW data came very close to forecast and the market remained mostly unaffected.



    Technical Outlook

    Most of yesterday’s climb was triggered by US Dollar weakness and the pair now seems headed for last year’s high at 1.1616. The Relative Strength Index has entered overbought territory on a four hour chart, so we expect to see retracements lower once the mentioned resistance is reached, or even before. To the downside the first potential support is located at 1.1490 – 1.1500 but if price climbs to 1.1616 it will not retrace so low probably.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The U.S. Building Permits will be released at 12:30 pm GMT and will be today’s only notable data. The indicator shows how many permits were issued for the construction of new residential buildings during the previous month and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it posts a higher than expected value, which for today is 1.20 Million.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound took a big blow from a weaker than expected Consumer Price Index, so the pair posted a huge drop after initially breaking 1.3100 resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair was overextended even before the British CPI came out, so this is a classic case of fundamentals in agreement with the technical side, hence the strong drop. We expect the current move to reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that the US Dollar is still weak and is taking a beating from most of its counterparts so we cannot rule out a climb above 1.3030 and closer to 1.3100. First important level south is 1.3000 and the way price behaves here will reveal more about the future direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The economic calendar for the Pound lacks any important releases, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for price direction.

  8. #408
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    FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR INCREASED VOLATILITY: ECB INTEREST RATE, BRITISH RETAIL SALES IN THE SPOTLIGHT


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: After reaching a top at 1.1583, the pair started to retrace lower and most of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears. The U.S. Building Permits posted a better than anticipated number and this helped the US Dollar to some extent.



    Technical Outlook

    The current move down is considered a normal and much needed retracement in an uptrend and once it finds support, we expect to see a bounce higher and a possible trend continuation into last year’s high at 1.1616. Potential support is located around 1.1490 – 1.1500, while the first resistance sits at 1.1580, followed by 1.1616, but keep in mind that today the technical side will be overshadowed by the ECB press conference.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today’s central focus will be the ECB rate decision, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and followed by Mario Draghi’s press conference at 12:30 pm GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the press conference is usually the time when the Euro starts to behave erratically, depending on Draghi’s attitude and answers to journalists’ questions. If he will hint towards some form of QE tapering, we expect to see increased Euro volatility.


    GBP/USD

    Price action was choppy yesterday and the bears couldn’t continue the momentum started a day before by the weak British CPI. The pair is now trading above and below 1.3030, without clear direction.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is likely to range between 1.3030 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average until the release of the British Retail Sales. The reading for this indicator will probably decide today’s direction and the technical aspect will be secondary. A bullish breakout will make 1.3100 the first target, and a move south will have the 50 EMA as first target, followed by the support at 1.2975.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Retail Sales come out at 8:30 am GMT and are expected to show a change of 0.4% compared to the previous -1.2%. This is a very important indicator because sales made at retail levels account for the majority of consumer spending, so we expect to see Pound strength if the actual number surpasses analysts’ expectations and Pound weakness if it comes out below forecast.

  9. #409
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO POSTS MASSIVE GAINS, MOVES PAST 2016 HIGH, BACKED BY DRAGHI’S COMMENTS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: As the market expected, the ECB maintained its interest rate unchanged but during the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that a hike in autumn is possible. The Euro responded positively to the comments and the pair rebounded from session lows, breaking resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    After completing a retracement that almost touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair pushed higher, breaking last year’s high at 1.1616 fuelled by Draghi’s comments. The uptrend is now resumed and the pair is headed for the next resistance located around 1.1700 but it won’t move there in a straight line and pullbacks will most likely occur. For today we expect small bounces to the downside or a ranging session with a bullish bias.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today the Euro and the US Dollar have a light economic calendar, without any major news releases, so the deciding factor will be the technical aspect.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, first breaking below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then returning to the line. The British Retail Sales came out slightly above expectations but this only created a brief period of volatility.



    Technical Outlook

    If the pair will break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside, the outlook will become bullish once again and we will probably see a break of 1.3030, followed by a move into 1.3100 next week. On the other hand, a bounce lower from the 50 EMA will confirm the initial break and will make 1.2900 the first target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for the final trading day of the week, so the technical side will prevail.

  10. #410
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO HOLDS ABOVE 2016 HIGHS AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES DATA


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday the fundamental scene was calm, without any important economic releases and this translated into a choppy session, mostly controlled by the bulls.



    Technical Outlook

    Friday’s price action shows that the pair is running out of steam and that it’s preparing for a retracement but we don’t expect to see very strong movement today. It is highly likely for the pair to re-test the recently broken resistance at 1.1616 but it will probably remain in a relatively tight range unless the fundamental side offers some surprises. To the upside, resistance sits at 1.1713, which is a level last reached in August 2015 but we don’t expect a break today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Eurozone Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes will be released today at 8:00 am GMT. These are surveys that act as leading indicators of economic health, focused on their respective sectors, so higher than anticipated numbers suggest optimism and usually strengthen the Euro. The forecast is 57.3 for the Manufacturing PMI and 55.5 for the Services PMI.

    The US Dollar will be affected today by the Existing Home Sales, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold, excluding new construction but the impact is usually low-to-medium; however, numbers above the forecast of 5.59 Million can strengthen the greenback.


    GBP/USD

    The Cable remained in a range Friday, moving above and below the 50 EMA for almost the entire session. All directional moves to one side were quickly reversed and the pair lacked determination.



    Technical Outlook

    Friday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints for future direction. Currently the pair is in a consolidation phase below 1.3000 and we can see several candles that tried to close above this resistance but failed and resulted in long upper wicks. This is a sign of rejection, so we can expect to see downside movement if price doesn’t move away from the 50 EMA and above 1.3000 key level.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British economic scene is calm today, without any notable releases. The technical aspect will be the main deciding factor for direction.

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