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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #531
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    FOREX NEWS: BULLISH RUN CONTINUES. OVERBOUGHT LEVELS SIGNAL PULLBACKS

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Price action remained bullish yesterday but without any major developments coming from the fundamental scene. The pair reached the long term resistance at 1.2280 and bounced lower.




    Technical Outlook

    The massive bullish rally seen last week and yesterday has brought the pair into the resistance at 1.2280 and the Relative Strength Index in deep overbought territory. These two facts will most likely trigger a pullback today but after its completion, we expect the pair to break 1.2280 – 1.3000. If that happens, the pair will be in “uncharted” territory until it reaches the zone around 1.2600.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Both the Euro and US Dollar have a slow economic day ahead, without any notable releases, so the technical aspect will take center stage.

    GBP/USD

    The US Dollar couldn’t make any advances against the Pound, although some attempts were made, so the pair continued higher. This was a continuation of the momentum started last week, not the result of new developments on the fundamental scene.




    Technical Outlook

    The bulls are in clear control but the possibility of a retracement lower is higher than it was yesterday, due to the long distance travelled upwards in a short period of time. The RSI and Stochastic are extremely overbought, thus increasing the chances of a pullback. The levels to watch are 1.3745 as potential support and place where bullish movement may resume and 1.3860 as resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The day’s main event will be the release of the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a yearly change of 3.0% compared to the previous 3.1%. This is the main gauge of inflation, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. The indicator usually strengthens the Pound if it posts readings above forecast.



  2. #532
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    [/i]FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET ENTERS CONSOLIDATION PHASE. STRONG BREAKOUTS ON THE HORIZON

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Final version of the European CPI was in line with expectations, posting a 1.4% change and the pair remained inside a range for most of yesterday’s session.



    Technical Outlook

    Price spiked above 1.2280 but immediately retraced below the level and dropped into the support at 1.2195. This type of behaviour means that the pair is likely to spend an extended period of time in a consolidation phase between 1.2195 and 1.2280 but once a clear breakout occurs, price will likely move in that direction for a longer period of time.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 1:30 pm GMT the US Building Permits come out, showing how many permits were issued during the previous month. This is a good gauge of construction activity because getting a permit is the first step in starting a building and usually higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is not always notable. Today’s forecast is 1.29 Million, very close to the previous 1.30 Million.


    GBP/USD

    Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable showed mixed movement yesterday and remained confined in a relatively small range after a failed attempt to break resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    The overall bias remains clearly bullish but it seems the pair is taking a breather and is consolidating between 1.3745 and 1.3820. Until a breakout occurs we expect to see choppy movement and once it does, the pair will extend into 1.3860 or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, depending on the direction of the breakout.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected by major economic data today so the technical aspect will be the main price driver.


  3. #533
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    FOREX NEWS: UPTREND STALLS. BRITISH RETAIL SALES EYED FOR POUND’S NEXT MOVE

    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair continued to trade in a range yesterday and showed a bounce at resistance followed by a failed break of support. The US data was mixed and didn’t have a notable impact on price action.



    Technical Outlook

    The uptrend is still strong but for the time being the pair remains in consolidation phase until 1.2195 support or 1.2280 resistance is broken. It must be noted that the bulls have tried several times to break 1.2280 and each time the attempt resulted in a huge pin bar candle (very long wick, small body), which is a sign of strong rejection. If the pair descends again below 1.2195 we expect to see an encounter with the 50 EMA.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today’s only notable release for the pair will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. This survey gauges the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. Higher readings indicate optimism and usually strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is limited if the actual number comes close or matches expectations. Today’s forecast is 97.0 while the previous was 95.9.

    GBP/USD

    The pair created a new top at 1.3942 but retraced lower and at the time of writing it is hovering close to the previous resistance at 1.3860. The outlook remains bullish but short term action is mixed.




    Technical Outlook

    The Relative Strength Index is moving lower but price is still moving higher. This is a bearish divergence that warns of a potential move south, which will have increased chances of happening if the pair moves below 1.3860. Such a scenario will have 1.3820 – 1.3800 as first target but if the pair stays above 1.3860, we expect another move towards 1.3942.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:30 am GMT the British Retail Sales come out, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail stores. Such sales represent the main part of consumer spending, thus higher numbers can have a positive impact on the currency. Today’s expected change is a drop of -0.8% from the previous 1.1%.


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