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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #471
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    FOREX NEWS: FULL DAY FOR THE POUND: INFLATION DATA AND BOE GOVERNORíS TESTIMONY


    EUR/USD


    Yesterday the pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and approached the support at 1.1775 but overall the session was pretty slow. The Empire State Manufacturing Index posted a value of 30.2, higher than the expected 20.3 and this helped the US Dollar to some extent.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the pair descended below the 50 EMA, it lacks momentum and seems like neither side is in control. However, if the support at 1.1775 is not broken soon, this will show that the balance is tilting towards the bulls and 1.1840 will become the first target. Until an important level is broken, our view is mostly neutral.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today at 9:00 am GMT and will show the opinions of about 300 German professional analysts and investors regarding a 6-month economic outlook for the German economy. Usually a higher number than the expected 20.3 is beneficial for the Euro but the impact is often low if the actual number matches the forecast.


    GBP/USD

    The pair remained in a tight range for most of yesterdayís trading session mostly due to the lack of economic data releases for the Pound.



    Technical Outlook

    Although yesterday the pair moved sideways for the most part of the session, in the afternoon we saw a drop into 1.3250 and into the 50 EMA, followed by a bounce higher. This shows that 1.3250 is still a good support level, thus a break will show increased bearish pressure. As long as the pair is trading between 1.3250 and 1.3350, our bias is neutral but a lot will depend on the British economic data.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today is an important day for the Pound, due to the release of the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the BOE when deciding interest rate changes. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 3.0% (previously 2.9%). Higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound because high inflation eventually leads to a rate hike.

    At 10:15 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify in London, before the Treasury Select Committee. This testimony may have a strong impact on the Pound, so we recommend caution until volatility settles down.

  2. #472
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR REGAINS ITS SWAGGER. SUPPORT BROKEN AND LOWER PRICES TO FOLLOW


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Euro weakened yesterday after a disappointing German ZEW survey and this allowed the pair to break support and to move south for almost the entire trading session.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1775 so the short term outlook is bearish, making us anticipate a move closer to 1.1700. However, it must be noted that the last few candles are showing long wicks in their lower part and the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold, which are signs of rejection. This means that the pair will probably retrace higher before reaching 1.1700 but as long as it remains below the 50 EMA, the bias is bearish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:10 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the ECB Conference held in Frankfurt. The impact on the currency will depend on his attitude and matters discussed but cannot be anticipated beforehand. However, volatility is likely to surge and caution is always advised when heads of central banks speak publicly.

    At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Building Permits will be released, showing how many construction permits for residential buildings were released during the previous month. This is a gauge of future construction activity and usually the greenback is positively affected by a number above forecast, which for today is 1.25 Million (annualized number).


    GBP/USD

    The Pound pushed slightly higher at the time of the British CPI release (3.0% change, as anticipated) but it came under heavy selling pressure and dropped for more than 100 pips, breaking the key handle at 1.3250.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair broke with ease the confluence zone created by 1.3250 and the 50 period EMA, showing increased bearish pressure. However, at the time of writing, the drop is showing rejection at 1.3160 so a move up cannot be ruled out. That being said, our bias remains bearish as long as price is trading below the 50 EMA and below 1.3250, so we expect a drop to 1.3100 or even lower.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The main event for the Pound today will be the release of the Average Earnings Index, which shows changes in the price that employers pay for labour. Higher wages lead to increased consumer spending and this in turn strengthens the Pound, so the indicator has a hefty impact. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected change is 2.1%.

  3. #473
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR FAILS TO BREAK SUPPORT. BRITISH RETAIL SALES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: After dipping into the area around 1.1735, the pair recovered and moved higher, breaking 1.1775 and reaching the 50 period EMA. The U.S. Building Permits came out lower than expected, facilitating the climb.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is currently at a crossroads: if the bulls can break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the climb will probably continue until 1.1840 is reached. Otherwise, we expect a drop through 1.1775 into the minor support at 1.1735 and possibly 1.1700. The oscillators are showing upside momentum but recently the US Dollar is showing signs of strength so the overall bias is still unclear.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today at 12:30 pm GMT, showing the opinions of manufacturers from the Philadelphia district regarding the general level of business conditions. The survey has a medium impact on the currency, but higher numbers than the anticipated 21.9 usually strengthen the greenback.


    GBP/USD

    British earnings data came out above expectations yesterday but despite this bullish signal, the pair only showed a small climb, which was quickly erased and overall the entire session was choppy.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterdayís trading session doesnít offer a lot of clues for the next move but itís clear that 1.3160 is offering good support and is tough to break. For the short term we expect a climb into the 50 period EMA but if that mark is not surpassed, the pair will probably return to attempt another break of 1.3160. A lot will depend on the British data released today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will be heavily affected today by the release of the British Retail Sales, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator draws its importance from the fact that sales made at retail level represent the main part of consumer spending, so a higher number means that economic activity is picking up and this strengthens the currency. The expected change for today is -0.1%, while the previous was 1.0%.

  4. #474
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    FOREX NEWS: CHOPPINESS CONTINUES AS THE US DOLLAR IS SHOWING MIXED SIGNALS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Despite better than anticipated US data, the US Dollar remained in the negative territory and the pair climbed after a spike below the 50 period EMA and below 1.1775 support.



    Technical Outlook

    Price has reached again the important resistance zone between 1.1840 and 1.1875 but the Stochastic has entered overbought and the Relative Strength Index is approaching that territory. This is usually an early signal that the pair may be rebounding lower in the near future, and we expect that bounce to happen around 1.1875. The bias remains bullish as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period EMA.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Existing Home Sales are released, showing the annualized number of houses sold during the last month. The forecast is 5.30 Million but the impact is usually low-to-medium, with higher numbers strengthening the greenback.

    At 11:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will deliver a speech named "Monetary Policy Since the Financial Crisis". Caution is always recommended when heads of central banks speak but the late hour will probably diminish the impact on the market.


    GBP/USD

    The British Retail Sales disappointed yesterday and this generated a sharp drop but soon after, the pair reversed and erased all the losses. Overall price action remained choppy and without clear direction.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is still ranging and cannot move above the 50 period EMA or below 1.3160. As long as it remains between these barriers and is showing choppy movement, our bias is neutral but a breakout will probably generate an extended move in that direction. The oscillators lack strong momentum but we can notice a candle with a very long lower wick, which is a clear sign of rejection at support.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didnít schedule major economic data releases for today so the technical aspect will take center stage.

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