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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #451
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    FOREX NEWS: CONSOLIDATION PHASE STILL UNDERWAY. BREAKOUTS WILL SOON FOLLOW


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair remained in a relatively tight range for the most part of yesterday’s trading session and this can be attributed to the lack of major news releases. The European Final CPI came out with the expected value, so the impact was low.



    Technical Outlook

    The bulls are still struggling to break 1.1960 resistance but the bears cannot keep the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so we can say that control doesn’t belong to either side. The next direction will depend on the economic data released today but as long as price is hovering between 1.1960 and the 50 period EMA, our outlook is mostly neutral, expecting a strong break of one of these technical hurdles.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is today’s highlight for the Euro. This is a survey of about 300 German professional analysts and investors regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy. Its impact has diminished lately, but higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro. The release is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and the expected reading is 12.3 (previous 10.0).

    On the US Dollar side the most notable event is the release of the Building Permits, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 1.22 Million new permits. Higher numbers show increased activity in the construction sector and usually strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is often mild.


    GBP/USD

    The pair retraced lower yesterday, as it was expected after the strong climb seen Friday but the overall picture remains strongly bullish.



    Technical Outlook

    The pullback seen yesterday didn’t bring the Relative Strength Index below its overbought level, so we may very well see more downside movement or consolidation. To the upside the first barrier remains the high at 1.3616, while 1.3450 is the first potential support but this is still a distant target for one day unless surprising developments take place. Of course, the pair is in a strong uptrend so we will probably see upside movement once the retracement is over.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The economic calendar lacks any major releases for the Pound today, so the pair’s direction will be mainly dictated by the technical aspect and the U.S. data.

  2. #452
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    FOREX NEWS: FED IN THE LIMELIGHT: POTENTIAL BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION ON THE HORIZON


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was mostly bullish, due in part to a better than expected German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (forecast 12.3, actual 17.0). The key resistance at 1.2000 was touched but it pushed price lower almost immediately.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the pair moved higher yesterday, the trading range was lower than 50 pips at the time of writing, so momentum is clearly lacking. This is likely to change today with the FOMC Rate Meeting but until then we will probably see choppy movement, capped by the resistance at 1.2000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If a breakout happens before the FOMC events, it may trigger additional movement but to a limited extent.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The main event today is without a doubt the FOMC Meeting scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT. They will release a set of Economic Projections for the next two years, as well as the Rate Statement that contains the outcome of their vote on the interest rate (no change expected) and insights into the reasons that determined the vote.

    The Fed is expected to start shrinking their balance sheet and if they announce it today, we will surely see very strong US Dollar movement. Also, at 6:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision among other things. Audience questions are expected and volatility is likely to surge.


    GBP/USD

    The pair continued lower yesterday and approached the support at 1.3450, without threatening a break. The picture remains bullish and this behaviour can be considered a normal retracement, not a reversal.



    Technical Outlook

    Today we may see a drop into 1.3450 support as the Relative Strength Index is descending below its 70 level after spending a long period in overbought territory. To the upside the first resistance is located at 1.3616 but today we have important economic releases for both currencies, so the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamentals.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Retail Sales are today’s main event for the Pound. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 0.2% (previous 0.3%); the report tracks changes in the total value of sales made through retail stores and has a high impact on the currency. Higher numbers show increased economic activity and usually strengthen the Pound.

  3. #453
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    FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR IS BACK! BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: As expected the Fed kept the rate unchanged (<1.25%) and announced that they will begin balance sheet reduction in October, which was perceived as hawkish by market participants. As a result, the pair tumbled through several support levels, on the back of US Dollar momentum.



    Technical Outlook

    Newfound US Dollar strength took the pair below 1.1900 after a near touch of 1.2040 earlier in the session and the momentum is likely to extend throughout today’s session, so we expect at least a touch of the support located at 1.1840. However, it must be noted that sharp moves tend to retrace a little after the initial momentum wanes, so we may see a move up that will find resistance around 1.1900. Despite the recent move, the pair is not in a downtrend so we cannot rule out a stronger move to the upside.

    Fundamental Outlook

    ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt. The impact if the speech is uncertain and will depend on Draghi’s attitude but caution is recommended whenever heads of central banks speak publicly. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT.

    The most notable event for the US Dollar will be the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows how many persons have asked for unemployment related benefits but it’s a weekly release and this means that it has a rather low impact. However, higher numbers than the expected 302K usually weaken the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound benefited from much better than anticipated Retail Sales numbers early in yesterday’s session and the pair jumped higher. However, US Dollar strength generated by the Fed meeting erased al gains and took the pair into support.



    Technical Outlook

    After a short lived break of 1.3616 resistance, the pair dropped to touch 1.3450 but at least at the time of writing, the level was not breached. If a break occurs, the drop will probably extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once that mark is hit, we expect to see moves north, based on the fact that the pair is still in a strong uptrend. On the other hand, a break of the 50 EMA would show increased bearish pressure and would weaken the uptrend.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The economic calendar for the Pound is blank today, so price direction will be determined by the technical aspect but also by the effects of yesterday’s events.

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