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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #491
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE AHEAD OF INFLATION AND RETAIL SALES DATA


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Selling pressure around the greenback increased yesterday and the pair broke above the resistance at 1.1670, a fact which triggered additional upside movement.



    Technical Outlook

    Yesterday the pair moved about 100 pips higher, which can be considered a huge move given the lack of volatility seen lately. Strong moves are usually followed by a pullback before price can advance further and this view is also supported by the fact that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both overbought. After this potential retracement, we expect the upside movement to continue towards 1.1825 resistance but a lot will depend on the U.S. data released today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Itís a big day for the greenback, with two important releases: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Sales, both scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase and acts as one of the main gauges of inflation. The forecast for today is 0.1% and higher numbers usually strengthen the currency. The CORE version of the indicator, which excludes food and energy from calculation will be released at the same time and expected to show a change of 0.2%.

    The Retail Sales are expected to show a change of 0.0% from the previous 1.6% and because this is the main gauge of consumer spending, higher than anticipated numbers strengthen the US Dollar and the opposite is true for lower numbers.


    GBP/USD

    The pair remained relatively choppy yesterday, with some bearish movement generated by the worse than expected British CPI value (actual 3.0%, forecast 3.1%). Most of the action took place near 1.3100, without substantial developments.



    Technical Outlook

    Price action is choppy lately and all moves result in candles with long wicks, which is a clear sign of indecision. The ranging phase will continue until a breakout occurs. The levels to watch are 1.3100 (a break should be confirmed by a re-test), followed by 1.3030 to the downside. To the upside the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first potential resistance, followed by 1.3175.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:30 am GMT the British Average Earning Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by employers for labour. A higher number indicates that inflation may increase in the near future because if businesses pay higher labour costs, this will usually translate into a higher price paid by the consumer. Todayís forecast is 2.1%, while the previous was 2.2%.

  2. #492
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR POSTS MINOR GAINS, POUND BOOSTED BY RETAIL SALES NUMBERS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The Final version of the Eurozone CPI matched analystsí expectations yesterday so the release didnít have a substantial impact and the pair showed choppy movement throughout the day, with a bearish bias.



    Technical Outlook

    The last few candles show very long wicks, especially in their upper part, which is a sign that bullish pressure is not yet high enough to resume the upwards movement. Today we may see a move lower, into the support at 1.1735 but overall the pair remains in a short term uptrend and the Relative Strength Index has cleared its overbought condition so after the retracement finds support, we will probably see a move up.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today at 8:30 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. The impact of the event cannot be anticipated but caution is always advised when heads of central banks speak publicly.

    On the US Dollar side we have the Building Permits, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 1.25 Million. The indicator shows the annualized number of construction permits and acts as a gauge of activity in the construction sector; numbers above expectations usually strengthen the greenback but the impact is medium.


    GBP/USD

    The British Retail Sales came out above expectations yesterday and this was the main reason for the climb seen early in the session. However, the pair remained in a range overall.



    Technical Outlook

    Price is currently testing 1.3175 from above and if this level will turn into support, rejecting the pair higher, then we will most likely see an encounter with the resistance at 1.3225. A break of that level would show that the pair is ready to exit the range that confined it during the last period, and head into 1.3280. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA our bias is slightly bullish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will not be affected by economic data today, so the main focus will be the technical side and the U.S. release mentioned earlier.

  3. #493
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    FOREX NEWS: EURO IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI TESTIFIES TWICE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Fridayís price action was characterized by a sharp climb that nearly touched 1.1825 resistance but soon after, the pair slowed down and consolidated below 1.1800. The U.S. construction data was better than anticipated but the impact was limited.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair has now printed a lower high and failed to break the resistance at 1.1825, which shows that upwards momentum is fading. This means that we will possibly see an encounter with Fridayís low at 1.1756 but overall today we expect the pair to remain between 1.1825 and 1.1756 support unless Draghiís testimony offers surprises.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The dayís only notable event is the double testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi, before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. The topic is economy and monetary policy, so volatility is likely to increase during his speech, which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT.

    Two hours later, at 4:00 pm GMT, the ECB President will testify again before the same Committee, but this time the topic will be the European Systemic Risk Board. Caution is advised during both speeches.


    GBP/USD

    The pair accelerated to the upside early during Fridayís session, only to drop abruptly soon after without apparent reason other than fresh sell orders.



    Technical Outlook

    Price is advancing higher but the pair is prone to sharp moves to either side. As long as 1.3175 support remains intact, the upside movement is likely to continue but overall we expect choppy price action. The levels to watch are Fridayís top at 1.3260 and the support mentioned earlier, together with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didnít schedule any economic releases for today, so the technical side will take center stage.

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