ForexMart's Forex News

**KostiaForexMart** · 01-19-2023, 06:23 PM

January 19. The share of the pound in international settlements fell to a June low

According to the SWIFT international system, the share of the pound sterling in international settlements by the end of December fell to 6.08%, which was the lowest value since June.

During the month, the British currency lost 1.01 percentage points, while retaining third place in the list of the most popular settlement currencies. The last time when the value was much less than the current one, it was noted in June: then the pound accounted for 5.96% of international settlements.

Analysts note that the dollar and the euro have strengthened their positions in the rating of currencies – they took first and second places with a share of 41.89% and 36.34%, respectively. The «American» for the month grew by 0.51 percentage points, and the «European» — by 0.22 points.

The Japanese yen is still in fourth place at the end of December, the share of which increased by 0.34 percentage points to 2.88% over the month.

The Chinese yuan closes the top five with a share of 2.15% and a decrease of 0.22 percentage points over the month.

**KostiaForexMart** · 01-23-2023, 04:58 PM

January 23. Retail sales in Britain showed a record drop since 1997

According to the UK Bureau of National Statistics, retail sales in December 2022 decreased by 5.8% compared to the same period in 2021. This was a record drop in the entire history of observations since 1997.

According to the ONS, retail sales in Britain have declined for the second month in a row. In December, they unexpectedly fell by 1%, which is twice as much as the 0.5% predicted by analysts. In November, the drop was also 0.5%.

The State Bureau also reported that the sales volumes recorded in December were 1.7% less than in February 2020 before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Total retail sales fell by 3% between 2021 and 2022.

Analysts note that after the start of the special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the West increased sanctions pressure on Russia. As a result, the disruption of logistics chains has led to an increase in fuel and food prices in Europe and the United States. In the UK itself, the rising cost of living has hit millions of households.

Recall that the Bank of England raised the base interest rate by 50 basis points – from 3% to 3.5%. The regulator also announced the beginning of a recession in the country, which will last the whole of 2023 and the first half of 2024. Annual inflation in the UK at the end of December was 10.5%.

**KostiaForexMart** · 01-25-2023, 07:54 PM

January 25. Microsoft shares fell amid the release of a weak report

Microsoft shares jumped 5.26% to $254.79 in postmarket trading. However, then the dynamics changed, and according to the results of the postmarket, the IT giant's securities fell by 1.02%, to $234.64.

On Tuesday, Microsoft released its financial report for the second fiscal quarter, which ended in December 2022. The company reported a 7% decrease in adjusted net profit to $17.4 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) fell 6% to $2.32. At the same time, analysts predicted EPS at $2.29.

Microsoft's total revenue grew by 2% and reached $52.75 billion, while Wall Street forecast $52.94 billion. This was the lowest increase in quarterly revenue since 2016.

Experts also note that Microsoft is increasingly becoming cloud-based. The share of various kinds of cloud services already accounts for 40% of revenue and more than 40% of operating profit. At the same time, the corporation began to earn less in other segments. Thus, revenues from PC products, including the Microsoft Windows operating system and Office software, decreased by 19% to $14.2 billion.

The corporation also gave a forecast that disappointed investors: it is expected that in the third fiscal quarter revenue will be from $50.5 billion to $51.5 billion, which is about 3% more than a year earlier. Analysts predicted that revenue in the current quarter would be $52.43 billion.

**KostiaForexMart** · 01-26-2023, 02:57 PM

January 26. Brent crude oil exceeded the level of $87 per barrel

On Thursday, the oil market shows steady growth: Brent quotes rose to the level of $87.50 per barrel. The North American grade of WTI oil is trading today near the level of $81.50 per barrel.

Traders continue to evaluate data on fuel stocks in the United States. According to the report of the Ministry of Energy, commercial oil reserves increased by 533 thousand barrels last week. The growth of reserves was recorded for the fifth week in a row.

Gasoline inventories increased by 1.76 million barrels, while distillate inventories decreased by 507 thousand barrels. Analysts predicted an increase in oil reserves by 1.5 million barrels, an increase in gasoline reserves by 1.5 million barrels and a drop in distillate reserves by 1.6 million barrels.

Experts note that the data of the Ministry of Energy reflected what the market has been putting into quotes in recent weeks: the growing premium of Brent compared to WTI since the end of December leads to an increase in exports, which limits the growth of stocks, despite the weak workload of American refineries.

Investors are also assessing the risks of a recession in the global economy and the prospects for fuel demand in China. Fears of a recession and the weakening of hopes for a «soft landing» for the economy remain negative factors for the market. At the same time, analysts expect that optimism about a sharp recovery in demand in China will support oil quotes in the near future.

**KostiaForexMart** · 01-27-2023, 02:54 PM

January 27. Central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace in half a century

According to a report by economists of the International Monetary Fund and the University of California at Berkeley, gold not only did not leave the international reserve currency, but also significantly increased its performance, as the gold reserves of the world's central banks increased after the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Experts note that in the third quarter of 2022, leading central banks bought more gold than in any other quarter for 55 years. The main buyers at the same time were banks of developing countries, such as Russia, China, India, Turkey, Argentina, Hungary and Belarus.

Among the main reasons for the increase in purchases, analysts note the popularity of gold as a traditional and safe means of saving at a time when a number of countries are subject to financial sanctions.

An interesting fact is that Russia, Iran and other countries that are subject to US sanctions can now combine blockchain technologies with gold to launch a digital currency that can compete with the dollar. Blockchain will allow these countries to make transactions with gold without actually redirecting coins or bullion.

Moreover, gold today is the only significant asset that is not controlled by any country and that cannot be forged. It is also the only asset that largely guarantees financial confidentiality.

**KostiaForexMart** · 01-30-2023, 06:42 PM

January 30. The main economic events of the day: January 30, 2023

At the end of last week, the dollar managed to finish trading in positive territory, and its DXY index showed a modest increase of about 20 points. Last week, which was the last full trading week of the month, turned out to be extremely volatile and saturated with the publication of important macro statistics.

The current week promises to be no less interesting: meetings of the three largest world central banks (Fed, Bank of England, ECB) are expected at once, at which decisions on rates will be made. Market participants expect an interest rate increase of 0.50% from the ECB and the Bank of England, but only 0.25% from the Fed.

The week will end with the publication of key data from the US labor market: the US Department of Labor will present a monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report with data for January.

The main and only event of Monday, January 30, will be the publication of preliminary data on German GDP for the 4th quarter. Since the German economy is the locomotive of the entire European economy, a high value of the GDP indicator is considered a positive factor for EUR, and a low one is considered a negative factor.

Analysts predict that German GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2022 amounted to 0%, and in annual terms – 0.8%. The previous values were marked at the levels of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively. The data is better than the forecast may strengthen the euro in the short term.

**KostiaForexMart** · 02-01-2023, 05:18 PM

February 1. Experts predict an increase in ECB rates by 50 bps

Tomorrow, February 2, the first meeting of the European Central Bank in 2023 on the rate will be held. Market participants are confident that the ECB will raise key interest rates by 50 basis points, to the highest since 2008.

If the market forecasts come true, the base interest rate on loans will be raised to 3%, the deposit rate to 2.5%, and the rate on margin loans to 3.25%. At the previous meeting, the ECB increased all three rates by 50 bps. In total, they were raised by 250 bps in 2022.

Following the results of the December meeting, the head of the central bank, Christine Lagarde, said that the regulator intends to continue raising rates at a rate of 50 bps, and already in January, some representatives of the Central Bank confirmed the relevance of these plans. Now the main question for investors is whether the ECB will continue to increase rates by 50 bps in March, or will consider it necessary to slow down the pace of their increase.

It is worth noting that the European regulator usually makes a decision on rates not in advance, but directly at each meeting, taking into account the emerging data.

Today, data on inflation in the eurozone were published, according to which the growth rate of consumer prices in January slowed significantly – to 8.5% in annual terms (from 9.2% in December). This indicator has become the lowest since May last year, but it still significantly exceeds the ECB's 2% target.

**KostiaForexMart** · 02-06-2023, 05:08 PM

February 6. Oil has stabilized after a sharp drop last week

At the end of last week, oil prices showed a sharp drop from the level of $84 per barrel to $79.70. On Monday, Brent managed to stabilize, settling within the narrow sideways range of $80.00-$80.30 per barrel.

North American WTI oil shows similar dynamics: the current quote of the asset is $73.60 per barrel. Last Friday, WTI was trading at $77.75. At the end of last week, Brent fell by 7.5%, WTI – by 7.9%.

Pressure on the market was exerted by the weakening of investor optimism about the growth rate of demand in China after the lifting of anti-bullying restrictions, as well as strong data on the labor market of the United States. According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector increased by 517 thousand, which is significantly higher than the forecast of 187 thousand and December growth of 260 thousand.

At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 1969 (3.4%). Data from the US Ministry of Labor showed that the Federal Reserve System still has room for maneuver in terms of tightening monetary policy.

Additional pressure on oil quotes was exerted by the statement of the head of the International Energy Agency that the economic recovery in China after the rejection of strict quarantine measures may be more powerful than expected. According to the IEA forecast, the Chinese economy will account for about half of the growth in oil demand this year.

It is also worth recalling that on February 5, the decision of the European Union and the G7 to impose an embargo on the import of petroleum products from Russia came into force. Market participants are closely monitoring the consequences of these measures.

**KostiaForexMart** · 02-08-2023, 08:36 PM

February 8. The oil market is on the rise in the middle of the week

Oil quotes accelerated growth on Wednesday amid hopes for a recovery in demand in China and fears of supply disruptions due to earthquakes in Turkey.

In addition, risky assets, including oil, were supported by statements made yesterday by the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell, which turned out to be not as «hawkish» as the market expected.

The current price of Brent crude oil is $84.80 per barrel. Yesterday, the asset quotes were located at $81.60 per barrel. North American WTI crude is trading near $78.30 after yesterday's decline to $74.80 per barrel.

Additional support for the oil market is provided by the words of the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, that the recovery of China's economy may proceed at a more active pace than expected. And this, in turn, will lead to a global increase in demand for oil and natural gas.

Today, data from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country will have an impact on the market. Analysts predict an increase in oil reserves by about 2.5 million barrels. Yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated a reduction in reserves in the United States by 2.18 million barrels per week.

**KostiaForexMart** · 02-15-2023, 04:30 PM

February 15. The Floki token rate jumped by 46% after Elon Musk's tweet

The Floki token (FLOKI) exchange rate increased by 46% after the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, published photos of his Shiba Inu dog named Floki.

On February 15, the billionaire posted a photo of his pet on the social network and called him the new CEO of Twitter, noting that Floki is well versed in numbers. «The new CEO of Twitter is amazing,» the billionaire wrote.

As a result, Floki – the management token in the ecosystem of the same name, which includes the gaming metaverse, the NFT marketplace, the FlokiFi DeFi project and the educational crypto platform – has sharply jumped in price.

Other meme «dog» cryptocurrencies also reacted with a slight increase. Dogecoin has risen in price by 6% over the past day, Shiba Inu – by 4.5%.

Elon Musk announced that he will name his puppy Shiba inu Floki on June 25, 2021. Then the billionaire's tweet caused the Shiba Inu cryptocurrency quotes to rise by 9%. In December of the same year, after the billionaire published a photo of Floki, the value of the Santa Floki token increased by 4000%, but since then it has fallen to zero values.