ForexMart's Forex News

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  1. #401
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    ForexMart's Forex News
    September 27. Iraq: oil may rise to $150 per barrel​​​​​​​

    The price of oil on the world market may reach $150 per barrel in the coming months. This was stated by Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein in an interview on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

    And there are significant risks here: if oil prices rise in winter, it will hit the economies of countries that do not produce oil. In addition to the seasonal factor of rising prices for hydrocarbons, the Iranian politician noted the impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the cost of oil.

    On Tuesday, the commodity asset is steadily growing after yesterday's fall to the level of $82.46: the current Brent quote is $85.54 per barrel. The driver of growth is concerns due to a reduction in supply on the market.

    Also, traders continue to monitor the gathering strength of Hurricane Jan in the Gulf of Mexico. Chevron Corp has already announced the suspension of the operation of two production platforms, the total production volume of which is about 120 thousand barrels per day. British BP also intends to close two platforms in the region, the production volumes at each of which exceed 100 thousand barrels per day.

    In addition, the decision of the OPEC+ countries to reduce the volume of oil production, as previously repeatedly stated by representatives of the alliance, can support oil prices. In particular, in order to maintain prices at $90 per barrel, OPEC will need to reduce production by 1 million b/d. In the meantime, the organization can reduce production by at least 500 thousand b/s.
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    October 3. The pound rose sharply after the British authorities rejected the budget plan​​​​​​​

    The pound jumped sharply on Monday after the British government announced the cancellation of a plan to reduce taxes for the rich, which was a shock to the market and scared investors.

    British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said today that the government is ready to abandon the plan to abolish the 45% maximum income tax rate. Against this background, the pound reached $ 1.1263 in a pair with the US dollar.

    Last Monday, the British currency fell to a record low of 1.0356. Investors were scared by the fact that tax cuts would spur inflation and lead to an even faster increase in the interest rate. And this will undermine the already struggling UK economy.

    Several members of the ruling Conservative Party also opposed the tax reduction program. Citizens themselves also spoke out against it, judging by the results of public opinion polls.

    Earlier, the International Monetary Fund also sharply criticized the new fiscal package, which includes the rejection of the planned increase in the social security tax rate and a reduction in the tax on the purchase of real estate below 250 thousand pounds. Representatives of the IMF said that this would contradict the tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of England.
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    October 4. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the base rate by only 25 bps​​​​​​​

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly reduced the pace of tightening its monetary policy, noting a deterioration in the global economic outlook. This time, the regulator raised the interest rate by only 25 basis points, to 2.6%. Most analysts expected an increase of 50 bps.

    Recall that the RBA raised the rate by 50 bps in June, July, August and September in an attempt to slow down inflation, which may peak by the end of 2022 at about 8%.

    One of the sources of uncertainty is the prospects for the global economy, which have worsened recently, said the head of the Australian Central Bank, Philip Lowe.

    In addition, the RBA fears that the tightening of financial conditions will have negative consequences for consumer budgets and spending.

    Earlier, the Australian central bank has already stated that it intends to slow down the pace of rate hikes at some point, as it expects a rapid weakening of inflation in 2023 along with falling commodity prices.

    The Australian dollar reacted with a decline to the news about the rate: the AUD/USD pair fell to $0.6470 during trading on Tuesday, compared with $0.6514 at the close of the previous session.
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    October 6. Oil rose above the level of $94 per barrel​​​​​​​

    Oil quotes on Thursday remain in the area of local highs reached after the announcement of the results of yesterday's meeting of OPEC+ ministers.

    The organization decided to reduce quotas for oil production in November by 2 million b/s. Analysts note that this decision signals that Saudi Arabia and the alliance as a whole are striving to stabilize and support oil markets.

    At the same time, it is noted that the actual decline in production will be less, since at the moment OPEC+ lags behind the maximum permitted production levels by about 3.6 million b/s. About 1.2 million b/d of the total underproduction is accounted for by OPEC countries, and 2.4 million by OPEC+ countries.

    Yesterday, after the end of the ministerial meeting, Brent jumped to the level of $93.90 per barrel. Today, the asset continued to grow and reached $94.44 per barrel. The last time such price values were observed was in mid-September.

    Additional support for the oil market was provided by data on fuel reserves in the United States. According to the Ministry of Energy of the country, commercial oil reserves decreased by 1.36 million barrels last week, while analysts predicted an increase of 1.8 million barrels.

    Gasoline stocks decreased by 4.73 million barrels, distillate stocks by 3.44 million barrels. Analysts expected a decrease in gasoline stocks by 1.1 million barrels and a drop in distillate stocks by 1.5 million barrels.

    October 5. The New Zealand central bank raised its key rate to a seven-year high

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has raised interest rates by 50 basis points to a seven-year high of 3.5%. The regulator also announced its readiness to further raise the rate in an attempt to contain stubbornly high inflation.

    The central bank's decision coincided with analysts' forecasts. The current increase was the eighth since the beginning of the monetary policy tightening cycle, which started a year ago. RBNZ accelerated the step from 25 to 50 points in April and has now brought the rate level to the cyclical highs of 2014-2015.

    It also became known that the monetary policy committee discussed an increase even by 75 bps, but eventually stopped at half a point.

    It remains appropriate to continue tightening monetary policy at the same pace to maintain price stability and ensure maximum employment, said the representative of the regulator.
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    October 10. Gold is trading below $1700 amid a strengthening dollar​​​​​​​

    At the beginning of the new trading week, the price of gold shows a steady decline: on Monday, the precious metal quotes fell below the psychological level of $ 1,700. The current price of gold is $1,673 per troy ounce.

    Gold prices have been declining for the fourth consecutive session on the back of the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by strong data on the labor market. Friday's Non-Farm payrolls report showed that unemployment in September fell to 3.5% from August's level of 3.7%, although markets did not expect a change in the indicator. The number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy increased by 263 thousand, while analysts predicted an indicator of 250 thousand.

    Such macro statistics reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy, which traditionally supports the dollar and restrains the price of gold.

    The dollar index reached a more than 7-day peak (113.225), making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

    Silver for December delivery lost 3.4% in price and fell to $19,538. Palladium prices fell to $2,216 per ounce, platinum fell to $899.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    October 11. The yield on German government bonds has reached its highest in 11 years​​​​​​​

    The yield on 10-year German government bonds rose to 2.346% per annum, which was the highest since 2011. The reason for the growth was the statements of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the sidelines of the EU summit in Prague.

    Scholz expressed support for the joint placement of debt obligations by the countries of the European Union in order to raise funds to help the members of the bloc in the fight against the energy crisis. The funds raised should be distributed between countries in the form of loans, not grants.

    Such a position suggests that the German leadership is significantly changing its rhetoric. Previously, Germany resisted the idea of raising funds together with countries that the German authorities consider more wasteful financially.

    The change of position came after Scholz was criticized for the announced plan to support the national economy by 200 billion euros due to the energy crisis. Some countries were outraged that this plan is aimed solely at supporting the German economy, without taking into account the interests of other EU countries. And this can cause an imbalance in the block.
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    October 17. The EM government bond market faces a crisis​​​​​​​

    Analysts suggest that the authorities of countries with developing economies that have been actively borrowing on debt markets during a period of low rates are now facing an increase in debt refinancing costs. Experts fear that some Emerging markets may face a debt crisis similar to the situation in Asia in the 1990-s.

    In the current period, the yield of government bonds of a third of the countries included in the EM Sovereign Dollar Debt Index exceeds the yield of US Treasuries by more than 10 percentage points. And this is already a generally accepted indicator of stress in the debt market. For example, the yield of government bonds of Kenya and Egypt exceeds the yield of U.S. government bonds by more than 10 pp, Argentina and Ghana by more than 20 pp.

    Earlier this week, the Finance Minister of Nigeria announced the attempts of the authorities to agree on the extension of the maturity of a number of bonds, stressing that we are not talking about Eurobonds. Some other EM countries intend to default and restructure their debt, as the growing debt burden leads to an outflow of investments and slows down the growth of economies.

    A few years ago, many developing countries began to place bonds in local currencies en masse in an attempt to protect themselves from the risks associated with an increase in the cost of debt servicing in the event of a fall in the national currency.

    However, over time, they have again increased activity in foreign capital markets against the background of extremely low interest rates in the United States and the eurozone. And in 2020, the volume of placements by developing countries of government bonds in dollars and euros reached a historic high and amounted to $747 billion.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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