Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

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  1. #721
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    Default Currency Pair of the Week: EUR/USD

    Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com
    The pair started on a positive note thanks for Spains Harmonized CPI, which came in at +5.8 YoY vs 4.7% YoY expected and +5.5% YoY last. Today, Markets will get a look at CPI from France and Germany, ahead of the Eurozone January Preliminary CPI tomorrow. Expectations are for a print of the headline CPI to drop to 9% YoY from 9.2% YoY in December. The Core rate is expected to drop to 5.1% YoY from 5.2% YoY in December. Expectations are for 50bps rate hike, which would bring the key rate to 3.00%. Many members of the committee, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, have already indicated that a 50bps hike is a done deal. Anything different will disappoint the markets. But traders will be watching for signals that another 50 bps rate hike is in the cards for March.

    Last week, the US released one of the Feds favorite measures of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index. The print was 4.4% YoY, as expected, vs a prior reading of 4.7% YoY. Today, the US will release another important gauge of inflation which the Fed relies heavily on: The Q4 Employment Cost Index. Expectations are for an increase of 1.1% vs a Q3 reading of 1.2%. How will these prints affect the FOMC when it meets tomorrow ? The markets are already pricing in a 99% chance of a 25bps hike, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to 4.75%.

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    Default The Bank Of England Preview

    The Bank of England has a decision to make tomorrow. It is not to hike or not to hie. It is to hike by 25 or 50bps, thats the question. As well as the rate decision itself, the BoEs comments on the economic outlook and future tightening, as well as the vote split, will have a big impact on the pound. Barring a big sell-off in risk assets due to the Feds policy decision taking first, on Wednesday, the GBP/USD could be heading to 1.25 if the BoE does not deliver a dovish surprise.

    An already-split Monetary Policy Committee is unlikely to be unanimous as they consider whether to step down a notch or keep going at the 50-basis-point pace. The markets are about 65% confident of a 50-bps hike to 4.0%, owing above all to high underlying inflation, stronger-than-expected wage growth and surprising resilience of the domestic and European economies.

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    Default FOMC Hikes Rates and Signals More to Come

    As universally expected, the FOMC raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the conclusion of its policy meeting today. But the tightening cycle likely is not over yet as the FOMC noted that it anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.

    The FOMC said that inflation has eased somewhat which Chair Powell reiterated in his post-meeting press conference. But he also noted that the committee has more work to do in terms of monetary tightening to bring inflation back to the FOMCs target of 2% on a sustained basis. Powell also stated that policy will need to be restrictive for some time.

    We look for the FOMC to hike the fed funds target rate by 25 bps each at its next two policy meetings. That said, we do not have a high level of conviction regarding the exact amount of tightening that the Committee will need to deliver. The FOMC is in the fine-tuning stage of its tightening cycle, and future rate hikes will depend on incoming data in coming weeks and months.

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    Default Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex

    in ro ham eslah kon:
    The National Bureau of Statistics China released PMI data this week which shows both the manufacturing and services sector are expanding.

    Appetite for risk has enjoyed a great to start to the year, mostly thanks to China reopening and abandoning their covid-zero policy. It was a key reason as to why the International Monetary Fund chose to not downgrade global growth forecasts for the first time in a year, and tentatively call for a turning point in the global economy. And that is so far being backed up by data coming for China.

    This week we have seen four headline PMI survey released covering manufacturing and services, three of which have beat expectations and expanded. If PMIs are above 50 is denotes expansion and I favorable for growth prospects in the future. Admittedly manufacturing is the laggard as the NBS print only expanded by 50.1, yet both service PMIs accelerated higher.

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