Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

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  1. #681
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    Default RBNZ seen raising rates by historic 75 bps

    Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com
    Whilst there has been some less expectations that inflation around parts of the world have topped out, recent data for New Zealand is remining us that inflation can remain at elevated levels for longer than anyone would like.

    CPI rose 2.2% q/q, up from 1.7% and well above the 1.6% consensus. Annual CPI rose 7.2% y/y – slightly below the 7.3% peak – but if the quarterly is trending higher then it can send the annual higher too. Labor costs have risen to a record high of 3.8% y/y and, whilst the quarterly read pulled back from its record, at 1.1% q/q labor costs remain quite elevated from its long-term average of 0.01%.

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    Default FOMC Minutes, Fed Hiking Rates slowly

    At the November 2nd FOMC meeting, members unanimously agreed to hike the Fed Funds rate by 75bps to bring the key rate to 3.75%-4.0%.The statement from the meeting said members agreed that ongoing rate hikes were necessary until rates were “sufficiently restrictive”. In addition, the statement noted that “in determining the pace of rate hikes, we will consider cumulative tightening, policy lags and economic and financial developments”. However, during the press conference which followed, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the incoming data suggests that the ultimate level of rates will be higher than previously anticipated.

    The FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday showed that a substantial majority of officials said a slowing in the pace of rate hikes would be appropriate soon.

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    Default EUR/JPY Eyes Breakout – Xtreamforex

    The US out on holiday, there’s not much point in discussing the dollar. Instead, something that could move during the Asian hours. The Japanese yen.

    After being the weakest of major currencies for an extended period this year, the yen has stormed back against the dollar, along with equities, gold and other risk-sensitive assets. Wednesday’s publication of less hawkish Fed minutes and weaker-than-forecast US business activity data further fueled speculation the Fed is going to slow down its rate increases and potentially pause in early 2023.

    As the USD/JPY slumped, other yen pairs have started to move lower with it – including the EUR/JPY – albeit to much lower extent. This is because nothing has changed in terms of the Bank Of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy. Thus, the USD/JPY has been hit because of dollar weakness than yen strength.

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    Default This week’s currency pair, USD/CNH

    This week will bring a lot of US macroeconomic data and speech from US Fed Chairman Powell, which should give the markets a clearer direction of where the Fed may be headed next regarding monetary policy. Powell speaks at the Brookings Institute on Wednesday. The topic is the economy and labor market. The statement after the November 2nd FOMC meeting stated that “ in determining the pace of rate hikes, we will consider cumulative tightening, policy lags, and economic and financial developments”. The markets took this to be dovish. However, in the press conference that followed, Powell said that the incoming data suggests that the ultimate level of rates will be higher than previously anticipated. However, the pace of tightening is not as important as the terminal rate. Markets took this to be hawkish, Traders will be looking for Powell to clarify these statements and try to determine if the Fed will hike by 50bps or 75bps at the December meeting. In addition, the US will release the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Core PCE. Expectations are for a YoY print of 5% vs a September reading of 5.1%. If this number is stronger, the Fed may feel comfortable leaning towards a 75bps hike in December. The US will also release Non-Farm payrolls on Friday. Expectations are for a print of 200,000 vs a previous reading of 261,000. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.

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    Default Australian inflation fell but just ‘weight’ a minute

    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Australian inflation rose only to 6.9% y/y, down from a peak of 7.4% and lower than the 7.5% expected. Housing, food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport were most significant contributors. CPI rose 0.2% m/m, below its long-term average of 2.5%.

    The RBA will be happy to hear that inflation was much lower than expected, even if it does remain historically high. But the ABS report also highlighted that they performed their annual weight adjustment to the CPI basket, and that inflation would have been 7.1% if last year’s methodology was used. But even a move down from 7.4% to 7.1% is noteworthy as it leaves the potential that inflation has in fact peaked.

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