Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

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  1. #651
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    Default U.S. Dollar Index Overview

    Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com
    The USD was the most strongest currency yesterday, supported by rising US yields and softer import/export data. And whilst the prices paid component of the ISM services PMI softened to a 20-month of 68.8, it remains historically high relative to its long-term average of 59.8- which suggests the aggressive Fed tightening is yet to make an impact on the inflationary forces of the robust services sector.

    The main economic event for the dollar this week is tomorrows NFP report. There was some excitement that it may come in soft due to the notable fall in job openings, but ADP employment came in slight above expectations at 280k yesterday. But it is all to easy to get caught in the noise of individual data prints, so best to take a wider broader view of underlying trends.

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    Default A Turning Point for Policy

    The RBA surprised markets this week by slowing the pace of rates increase, opting for a 25bp move against expectations of a 50bp increase. Meanwhile, the RBNZ continued to show a heavy hand against domestic inflation pressures, having delivered a fifth consecutive 50bp rate hike.

    In explaining their decision to raise the cash rate by only 25bp to 2.60% at their October policy meeting, the RBA referenced the considerable amount of financial tightening that has already been implemented, a total of 250bps to date. While the Board were cognizant of the domestic risks around inflation; consumer spending; housing and the labor market, a greater emphasis was placed on concerns around the deterioration in the global economy, likely in response to recent volatility within financial markets. As discussed by Chief Economist Bill Evans, we saw that developments in the global economy actually favored a larger increase at the October meeting, given the strength of US consumer inflation and its expected consequences of a more aggressive tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve, and hence further upward pressure on global interest rates.

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    Default EUR/USD trades below 0.9535 as US dollar recovers

    EUR/USD updated another 20 years low last month, lowest at 0.9535. This was followed by a correction, and the pair came close to the equality level on Tuesday, October 04, rising to 0.9999. However, the happiness of the bulls was short, followed by another reversal to the south and the finish line at 0.9737.

    The depressed state of the economy against the background of continuing inflation suggests the threat of stagflation in the Eurozone. The increase in energy prices adds to the negative. And it is likely to continue, as the OPEC + countries decided to seriously reduce oil production. Recall that these prices were one of the most powerful triggers for the global wave of inflation. Another negative factor is the proximity of the EU countries to the theater of Russian-Ukrainian military operations, especially since Russian President V. Putin constantly threatens to use nuclear weapons.

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    Default Currency Pair of the Week: GBP/USD

    GBP/USD is one of the most popular pairs to discuss over the last month. When Chancellor Kwasi Kwantung announced the plans for Prime Minister Trusss new mini-budget program, markets were concerned as to where the money would come to fund it. The Bank of England had been slowly raising interest rates and investors were weary that the government would now have to borrow money at much higher rates. As a result, the Gilts and the GBP got hammered. A few days later, the BOE intervened in the Gilt market, which brought yields lower the value of the Pound higher. Th Central bank said it would continue to intervene in the market as necessary, buying up to 5 billion GBP per day worth of Gilts through October 14th, in order to keep liquidity in the markets.

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    Default AUD/USD falls to new 18-month low

    AUD/USD continues to lose ground and cant find its footing. The Aussie started the week on the wrong foot, with a decline of 1.0% on Monday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6266 down 0.52%. Earlier the day, the Australian dollar fell to 0.6247, its lowest level since April 2020.

    Australia has posted weak numbers this week, adding to the downward pressure on the ailing Australian dollar. The Services PMI fell into contraction territory with a reading of 48.0 in September, down from 53.3 in August, as the uncertain economic outlook is weighing on business activity. Business confidence levels are down, with NAB business confidence slowing to 5 in September, down from 10 in August. Westpac Consumer Sentiment indicated that consumers are also in a sour mood, with a reading of -0.9% in September after a gain of 3.9% in August, which was the sole gain over the past 11 months.

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    Default FOMC Minutes show Fed is serious about inflation

    The September 21st FOMC meeting chose to hike the Fed Funds rate by 75bps for the third consecutive meeting to bring the key rate to 3%-3.25%. The Minutes from that meeting noted that the cost of doing too little outweighed the cost of doing too much. They also noted that the labor market would need to weaken to bring down high inflation. Some also said that after rates reach a sufficient level, they will need to hold this restrictive rate for some time.

    After the Minutes were released, the CME Fed Watch Tool showed that markets were pricing in an 84% chance of a 75bps rate increase at the November 2nd meeting. However, this may change after the US CPI data is released tomorrow.

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    Default EUR/USD displays a rangebound structure around 0.9700 ahead of US Inflation

    EUR/USD moved sideways along the 0.9700 horizon as markets waited for the release of US inflation data last week. October 14th the Department of Labor Statistics of the country published fresh values of the Consumer Price Index, which exceeded the forecast values. In monthly terms, the September CPI reached 0.6% against the forecast of 0.5%, in annual terms 6.6% against the forecast of 6.5% and the previous value of 6.3%.

    The dollar began to lose its position rapidly: DXY fell to 112.46, and EUR.USD broke through 0.9800. On the contrary, the S&P500 was positive by the end of Thursday and grew by 2.6%. Analysts cite the strong oversold stock market as the main reason for this change in sentiment and the sharp increase in risk appetites. It is believed that stocks lose about 30% during recessions.

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    Default NZ CPI Review: OCR Now Expected to Peak at 5%

    It is expected that the official Cash Rate to reach a peak of 5% for this cycle and also a 75 basis point hike to 4.25% at the upcoming November Monetary Policy Statement, a step up from the 50 basis point increases in the last few reviews. Inflation in continuing to run red-hot across the economy, and core inflation is yet to show signs of easing despite the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year.

    It is also seen that ongoing firmness in domestic economic conditions, including a drum tight labor market and resilience in household demand.

    Todays inflation figures were unexpectedly bad. Prices are not only rising quickly but across the board, which increasingly points to a common cause rather than special factors. And even though forecasters were braced for a strong number today, the result beat all expectations. Combine that with a sense that domestic demand is holding up in the face of the interest rate hikes that weve seen to date, and it looks like the Reserve Bank has more work to do yet.

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