The US Economy || US rate hike cycle concludes in 2022
Last week was very active for global rebirth in risk appetite despite a run of data which pointed to deteriorating US economic growth. This is because the softer tone of US data and the FOMC’s acceptance of it implies a reducing risk of the rate hikes in excess of those already increased.
Increasing the rate hike for the second time to a mid-point of 2.375%, Chair Powell showed a greater degree of comfort over the outlook for inflation in the July press conference. In part this stems from 2.375% being within the 2.3% interest rate range th FOMC believe to be neutral for their economy. However, the greater comfort of inflation is also a consequence of building apprehension over the outlook for growth. The press conference also made clear that the FOMC wish to undertake “just the right amount of tightening” to bring about below trend growth, not to make mistake by creating the pre conditions for recession.
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