Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

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  1. #511
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    Default The NZD/USD is in command as the US dollar strengthens

    Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com
    NZD/USD is trading 0.23 percent down on the day at 0.6944, having fallen from a high of 0.6963. The US dollar is up in the morning after posting its sixth weekly rise in the last seven. The DXY index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is up 0.3 percent to 99.100. The dollar has benefitted from its role as a safe haven, and the situation in Ukraine has increased hopes that the Fed would raise interest rates. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar has settled into what appears to be a comfortable “groove” around the mid to high 0.69s, according to ANZ Bank strategists.

    “There is really little going on domestically, but markets are now fairly completely priced for impending rises (while 50bp hikes aren’t entirely priced in, the risk of them is). Rates are unlikely to move much more (either for themselves or the NZD) until the RBNZ decision on April 13th.” “But it’s a different picture across the Tasman, as probabilities of RBA hikes continue to rise, with a full hike priced in by June and “612” rises factored in by year end,” the analysts wrote. This appears to be pushing the NZD at the moment, and it appears that the question is, will the NZD/USD break higher?”
    In terms of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and market pricing, Westpac analysts suggest that markets are currently overpricing the expected scope of OCR rises over the next couple of years.

    “However, if we’re accurate, what would cause the market to correct?” We believe it will come down to proof that monetary policy is already having an impact – cooling the housing market and eventually lowering consumer demand to more sustainable levels,” the analysts concluded.

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    Default GBP/USD falls from 1.3080 as the DXY declines on improved risk appetite

    The GBP/USD pair has seen some hefty bids at 1.3080 as investors’ risk appetite improves and risk-perceived assets acquire more demand. Previously, the cable underperformed despite the Bank of England’s tightening monetary policies (BOE). To counteract rising inflation, the Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.75 percent. The central bank increased its benchmark interest rate three times in a row, each time by 25 basis points (bps). In addition, the UK’s Office for National Statistics published the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 6.2 percent, which was much higher than market expectations and prior readings of 5.9 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively. A higher-than-expected report of UK inflation may drive the BOE to raise interest rates again in May.

    The US dollar index (DXY) has hit a roadblock after failing to set a new nine-month high and is on the danger of falling below 99.00. The DXY has been pounded at 99.30 due to an increase in risk appetite following the absence of three major Moscow demands: denazification, demilitarization, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield is hanging around 2.46 percent ahead of the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. The early estimate of US NFP at 475K is a considerable decrease from the prior print of 678K.

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    Default XAU/USD pair remains bullish as the US currency continues to fall

    The gold price is rising as the US currency and US yields fall. The 10-year yield is down almost 2% on the day, while the DXY index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is down about 0.3 percent at the time of writing. Russia has promised to pull back military activities near Ukraine’s capital and north, while Kyiv has recommended that Ukraine join the EU while remaining neutral by not joining NATO.

    “Talks were fruitful enough for Putin and Zelensky to meet,” said Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak. “We have documentation ready today that will allow the presidents to meet bilaterally,” he added. However, overall, movement has been very subdued. This suggests that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not as priced in as some may have expected, or that markets are not fully buying it. Markets have been up and down in the previous 24 hours. The most important event, however, was the increase in 2Y UST rates to 2.45 percent yesterday, as well as yield curve inversions.

    Market investors have pounced on gold (XAU/USD) as safe-haven assets lose attractiveness as peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue. This week, the precious metal fell precipitously after failing to hold above the $1,950.00 level. Despite a response purchase just below $1,900, gold prices have risen to about $1,920.00. The Russian government has ignored the opening step of a ceasefire with Ukraine and has evacuated its soldiers from northern Ukraine and Kyiv. While Ukraine has declared itself neutral and has elected not to join the NATO alliance.

    Moscow and Kyiv’s opening move toward a ceasefire plan has lifted market mood. Risky assets are gaining momentum in the midst of a strong risk-on drive. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) has been subjected to a barrage of selling in safe-haven assets. The DXY is retracing to approximately 98.00, its low from Tuesday, and is expected to continue its losses once the latter is violated. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has a better chance of raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) despite weak US JOLTS Job Openings data. The JOLTS Job Opening number was 11.266M, slightly higher than the prior result of 11.263M and the projection of 11M.

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    Default GBP/JPY recovers from 160.00 as the BOJ blames rising commodity prices for the yen’s

    The GBP/JPY pair has received some considerable offers at 159.50 amid widespread selling in the Japanese yen as a result of the Bank of Japan’s unlimited bond-purchase program me (BOJ). The cross is soaring, having risen over 0.7 percent on Friday from its previous close at the time of publication.

    After the completion of the four-day bond-buying spree on Thursday, the aftereffects of the excessive purchase of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to cap yields at 25 basis points appear to be gone. It appears that market players were waiting for the conclusion of JGB distribution from market participants to the BOJ, and that the pullback was just a result of investors capitalizing on a firmer rally.

    According to Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno, the economy is improving, according to the BOJ Tankan survey, although difficulties from the Covid-19 outbreak linger. Furthermore, BOJ officials have stressed growing commodity costs, indicating that Japanese firms have primarily highlighted the impact of rising raw material prices and part shortages on present business circumstances.

    Meanwhile, the pound has been supported against the yen by the UK’s GDP’s strong performance (GDP). On Thursday, the quarterly GDP came in at 1.3 percent higher than the market consensus and previous number of 1%.

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    Default In Asian markets, the XAU/USD bleeds out, falling below $1,920

    The price of gold, XAU/USD, has been under pressure this week due to conflicting mood around the Ukraine issue against anticipation of a rapid-fire response from the Federal Reserve following last week’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

    XAU/USD is down 0.26 percent at the time of writing, having fallen from a high of $1,926.86 to below Friday’s low of $1,918.32. The dollar got off to a strong start on Monday, boosted by a surge in US Treasury rates on anticipation of a series of Fed rate hikes.

    Following the release of the NFP report, US 2-year bond rates hit a new all-time high in the North American session, while US 10-year yields also climbed, indicating a drop in investor demand.

    After a large upward revision to the February statistics to 750k, non-farm payrolls gained 431k in March. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.6 percent, while average hourly wages rose 0.4 percent month over month, bringing annual growth to 5.6 percent. The report was mixed, with hourly wages for February reduced down to 0.1 percent, indicating that, together with the March number, the pressure on the US labor market may be fading.

    Overall, the report has bolstered the Fed’s case for using aggressive rate rises to keep inflation under control. Fed funds futures have a nearly 4/5 likelihood of a 50 basis point rise next month built in.
    Despite this, economists at ANZ Bank believe that demand for safe have assets would continue robust because to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. “Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the disparity between fair value and current gold prices has jumped from zero to USD300/oz, implying a significant risk premium. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict’ indirect effects will give a considerable degree of support. The wider isolation of Russia will result in an inflationary structural change in the energy industry.”

    In other markets, speculation about further penalties kept the general tone cautious in early trade, but this, too, bolstered the US dollar. After Ukrainian and European authorities accused Russian soldiers of crimes, Germany’s defense minister suggested on Sunday that the European Union should consider restricting Russian gas supplies. Ukraine has accused Russian soldiers of carrying out a “massacre” in Bucha, which Russia’s defense ministry has denied.

    “Haven flows are expected to keep the yellow metal sustained as long as significant progress on ceasefire discussions and de-escalation remains elusive,” analysts at TD Securities said. “At the same time, the 2-year and 10-year curves flirting with inversion has fanned rumours of a coming recession, providing yet another favorable dynamic for gold.”

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    Default XAU/USD is expected to drop to about $1,900 as aggressive Fed officials dampen market

    After a massive sell-off on Tuesday, gold (XAU/USD) is struggling in the Asian session. Given the adverse market movement and aggressive tone espoused by Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, the precious metal is anticipated to drop to around the psychological support of $1,900.00. In a speech on Tuesday, Fed Governor Lael Brainard stated that the Fed is prepared to act aggressively if inflation data and expectations indicate that such action is warranted. While Fed President Mary Daly has underlined the need for the Fed to reduce its balance sheet as quickly as possible. Furthermore, increased oil costs will not cause a significant downturn in the US economy.

    On the other hand, on negative market mood, the US dollar index (DXY) has risen to almost 99.60. Fed members’ hawkish positions suggest that, in the future, rising interest rates will limit liquidity influx throughout the world. The risk-off impulse has been triggered, and the greenback is now climbing higher. Aside from the DXY, increased prospects of a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate hike have injected steroids into US Treasury rates. The 10-year US Treasury rates have surpassed 2.6 percent and are on the verge of setting a new three-year high.

    The price of gold fell somewhat as the US currency gained strength. The DXY index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies, reached its highest level in over two years. The benchmark 10-y++3fear Treasury yield has risen to 2.55 percent, while the two-year yield has risen to 2.56 percent for the first time since March 2019.

    Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,916 per ounce, but was trading in a tight range, while US gold futures down 0.1 percent to $1,931.20. XAU/USD is down 0.2 percent at $1,921 at the time of writing, pressured in Asia after comments by Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard.

    In advance of tomorrow’s hawkish minutes, the Fed member mentioned the possibility of forceful action by the central bank. Brainard stated that the Fed might begin lowering its balance sheet as early as May, and that it would do so at a “rapid pace.” Interest rate rises might be more aggressive than the usual 0.25 percentage point increments, according to Brainard. Meanwhile, during the March meeting, Fed policymakers began the process of policy normalisation by raising rates 25 basis points to 0.25 percent -0.50 percent, and the minutes of that meeting will be issued on Wednesday.

    “Gold prices have remained remarkably robust, indicating strong ETF and comex inflows into gold trumping withdrawals linked with a hawkish Fed,” according to TD Securities analysts. “Because actual rates may be less effective as a barometer for evaluating gold’s relative price, we look at gold flows to see how long interest in the yellow metal will last.” ETF flows have tended to be more significantly connected with changes in market expectations for Fed hikes than real rates, the yield curve, or even price momentum, according to our study.

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    Default US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

    AUD: AIG Services Index, Survey of about 200 service-based companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories

    AUD: Trade Balance, it measures difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

    JPY: JGB Auction, it measures average yield on a 30-year bond the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction.

    JPY: Leading Indicators, it measures Level of a composite index based on 11 economic indicators. Forecast 100.9%

    CHF: Unemployment Rate, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic. Forecast 2.2%

    EUR: German Industrial Production, Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Forecast 0.1%

    GBP: HBOS (Halifax Bank of Scotland) HPI (House Price Index), It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity.

    CHF: Foreign Currency Reserves, It provides insight into the SNB’s (Swiss National Bank) currency market operations, such as how actively they are defending the franc’s exchange rate against the euro.

    EUR: Retail Sales, It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

    EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, record of the ECB Governing Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates

    GBP: MPC Member Pill Speaks, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

    USD: Unemployment Claims, it measures number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Forecast 201K.

    USD: FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, about the economy and monetary policy at an event hosted by the University of Missouri, in Columbia.

    USD: Treasury Sec Yellen Speaks, about cryptocurrency policy and regulation at an event hosted by American University, in Washington DC.

    USD: Nat Gas Inventories, it measures Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week. Forecast -28B.

    USD: Consumer Credit m/m, It’s correlated with consumer spending and confidence – rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money. Forecast 18.0B.

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    Default

    vớ vẩn Tin nóng đây

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    Default Market News: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/JPY

    NZD: International Travel and Migration, it measures change in the number of short-term overseas visitors who arrived in the country

    GBP: Like-for-like Retail Sales, it measures change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level.

    JPY: Bank Lending, it measures change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses.

    JPY: Producer Price Index, it measures change in the price of goods sold by corporations.

    AUD: NAB Business Confidence, It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

    EUR: German Final CPI m/m, it measures change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

    EUR: German WPI m/m, it measures change in the price of goods by wholesalers.

    GBP: Average Earnings Index 3m/y, it measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses.

    GBP: Claimant Count Change, it measures change in in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

    GBP: Unemployment Rate, it measures percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months.

    EUR: French Trade Balance, it measures difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

    EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment, it measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.

    EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.

    USD: NFIB Small Business Index, it measures level of a composite index based on surveyed small businesses.

    USD: Consumer Price Index, it measures change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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    Default NZD/USD higher after the larger than expected interest rate hike from the RBNZ

    in ro ham eslah kon:
    NZD: Food Price Index , It measures change in the price of food and food services purchased by households.

    JPY: Core Machinery Orders m/m, It measures change in the total value of new private-sector purchase orders placed with manufacturers for machines, excluding ships and utilities.

    JPY: M2 Money Stock y/y, It measures change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks.

    AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment, It measures change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.

    NZD: Official Cash Rate, Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. Forecast 1.25%

    NZD: RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) Rate Statement, It’s among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

    GBP: CPI (Consumer Price Index) y/y, Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Forecast 6.7%

    GBP: Core CPI y/y, It measures change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco items.

    GBP: PPI Input m/m, It measures change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers.

    GBP: PPI Output m/m, It measures change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

    GBP: RPI y/y, It measures change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption.

    JPY: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks, As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has important influence over the nation’s currency value. Traders scrutinize his speeches as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.

    EUR: Italian Industrial Production m/m, It measures change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

    GBP: House Price Index (HPI), It measures change in the selling price of homes.

    USD: Producer Price Index (PPI), It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. Forecast 1.1%

    USD: Core PPI m/m, It measures change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy.

    CAD: BOC Monetary Policy Report, It provides valuable insight into the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation – the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.

    CAD: BOC Rate Statement, It’s the primary tool the BOC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

    CAD: Interest Rates, Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. Forecast 1.00%

    USD: Crude Oil Inventories, It measures change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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