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EUR/JPY Price Prediction: Bulls need to break through the 200-EMA to move higher; 130
Despite the bearish opening gap on Monday, the EUR/JPY has been following the primary component of Dow Theory by remaining above Fridays low of 128.73. The cross continues to form the higher high and higher low structure, but more filters are needed to complete it. On Monday, EUR/JPY opened at 129.16, close to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement (the distance between Fridays low and high of 128.73 and 130.30). This is typically used to provide significant support for an asset following a correction. These pullbacks are frequently viewed by investors as a good time to buy. The cross is trading in a narrow range of 129.15-129.43, indicating that the volatility bands are being squeezed.
Despite a higher high and higher low structure, EUR/JPY is trading below the 50-period and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on a 15-minute scale, indicating a lacklustre move ahead. After trading in a bullish range of 60.00-40.00, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has dropped sharply near 30.00.Bulls are keeping an eye on the 200-EMA at 129.51, as a break of it will send the cross higher towards Fridays high at 130.30 and Wednesdays high at 130.71, respectively.
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XAU/USD is expected to fall below $1,900 as it loses its safe-haven appeal
Gold prices are aiming for support below $1,900 as the markets risk-off impulse returns. The precious metal has been trading in a range of $1,890.92-1,911.00 as investors await a new catalyst from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, Russias invasion of Ukraine appears to be escalating. According to Maxar satellite images, the Russian military perimeter around Kyiv has grown to 40 miles, rather than the 17 miles initially reported. This could rekindle interest in the yellow metal.
Furthermore, the US dollar index (DXY) has been vulnerable as market participants have diverted funds away from the DXY and into riskier assets. The greenback has established a short-term ground near 96.80, reducing the precious metals exposure to the greenback. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which will fly under the radar. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powells testimony on Wednesday will be the key event to watch out for, along with another round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the coming days.
The price of gold has risen as demand for safe-haven assets has remained strong. After rising as much as 2.2 percent earlier in the session, spot gold rose 0.6 percent to $1,898.25 per ounce. Gold futures in the United States finished 0.7 percent higher at $1,900.70. Gold, which is frequently used as a safe haven of value during times of political and financial unrest, has risen about 6.5 percent in February, reaching an 18-month high of $1,973.96 last week.
Russias ongoing aggression against Ukraine has weighed on risk assets such as US and European equities, as well as bond yields. Investors are grappling with uncertainty, with bank stocks plummeting as a result of tough Western sanctions imposed on Russia as it continued its invasion of Ukraine. The DJI and S&P 500 fell, but the Nasdaq managed to claw its way back to the top.
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AUD/USD rate stages another attempt for 2022 opening range breakout
AUD/USD appears to be unfazed by the RBAs dovish forward guidance as it clears the February high (0.7284), and it remains to be seen if the update to Australias Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report will derail the recent advance in the exchange rate amid expectations for a slowdown in economic activity.
Australia is projected to grow 3.7% after expanding 3.9% during the third quarter of 2021, and indications of a slowing economy may keep the RBA on a preset course as the central bank pledges to not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.
As a result, the advance from the January low (0.6968) may turn out to be a correction in the broader trend with the Federal Reserve on track to normalize monetary policy ahead of its Australian counterpart, but recent price action raises the scope for another run at the January high (0.7314) as it clears the February range.
In turn, AUD/USD may continue to carve a series of higher highs and lows over the coming days if it shows a limited reaction to Australias GDP report, and a further appreciation in the exchange rate may fuel the recent flip in retail sentiment like the behavior seen in 2021.
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GBP/JPY stays depressed below 155.00 as yields ease on Ukraine fears
GBP/JPY remains sidelined around 154.70 during Thursdays Asian session, mildly offered after bouncing off a 10-week low the previous day. The cross-currency pairs latest weakness could be linked to the markets anxiety ahead of key data/events, as well as a lack of major catalysts. Cautious optimism from an anticipated round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine battles increasing hopes of a faster rate-hike trajectory by the Fed to test the market sentiment of late.
A Russian negotiator was quoted to share the news of a probable round of diplomatic talks on Thursday. On the same line, Interfax also mentioned, A potential ceasefire will be discussed in upcoming talks with the Ukrainian delegation. Its worth noting that a jump in the probabilities of a 0.50% rate hike in the March Fed meeting, per CMEs Fed Watch Tool, also challenges the markets optimism. On the same line were the US inflation expectations that rose to a 15-week high, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data.
Elsewhere, global rating agencies like Moodys and Fitch cut Russias ratings and contribute to the offbeat sentiment. At home, the Daily Express quotes data showing a jump in the EU nationals in the UK to shrug off Brexit criticism. Further, UK PM Boris Johnson spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and said, he will publish full list of all those associated with the Putin regime per The Guardian. Additionally, Bank of England (BOE) policymakers, including Silvana Tenreyro and Jon Cunliffe, cited economic risks emanating from Russias invasion of Ukraine.
On the same line, Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy board member Junko Nagaya said in a statement on Thursday, Japans economic outlook remains highly uncertain from January onward. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields also drop 1.2 basis points (bps) to 1.85% by the press time.
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Gold is surging and breaking records. $2,000/oz
At the start of the week, the price of gold in fast markets has just surpassed $2,000 per ounce. The catalyst is oil, as well as concerns about global stagflation. Oil prices have increased by 10% on Monday as a result of the threat of a ban on Russian products in the United States and Europe. Delays are also occurring in Iranian negotiations. Brent was quoted at $130.84, up $12.73, while US crude was up $9.92 to $125.60. At the time of writing, it is reported that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is considering legislation that would prohibit Russia from importing oil. This was a topic that roiled markets right away.
Pelosi stated last Thursday that she supports a ban on Russian oil imports into the United States. Biden has been hesitant to restrict Russian oil shipments to the US or impose energy sanctions, despite the fact that prices are already hitting US citizens pockets. However, the sanction has already received widespread support from Republicans and an increasing number of Democrats.
Commodity prices in general have had their best start to a year since 1915. Among the many movers last week, nickel increased by 19%, aluminium by 15%, zinc by 12%, and copper by 8%, while wheat futures increased by 60% and corn by 15%. This makes this weeks US Consumer Price Index a critical event for markets, with an annual growth rate of 7.9 percent and a core measure of 6.4 percent expected ahead of the European Central Bank meeting this week and the Federal Reserve meeting next week.
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With peace talks on the horizon, the XAU/USD remains below $2,000 per ounce
On Wednesday, gold suffered greatly as risk sentiment improved. After reaching a 19-month high at the start of the week, the precious metal fell back below $2,000 per ounce. Spot gold fell 3.3 percent to $1,976 per ounce, capping a rally that had taken it close to the all-time high set in August 2020. Gold futures in the United States fell 2.7 percent to $1,988.20. Profit-taking, as well as a sharp drop in oil prices, fueled the reversal, allowing buyers to scoop up bargains in the stock markets on stocks that had previously been hammered by concerns about Russian sanctions.
On Wednesday, a Russian airstrike severely damaged a childrens hospital in the besieged Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. However, risk sentiment improved as oil prices fell sharply after the United Arab Emirates said it would support increasing output as an OPEC member. Brent oil dropped from $131.50bbls to $105.91bbls. The price had reached a high of $138.03bbls at the start of the week in a market that was in disarray due to supply disruptions caused by sanctions imposed on Russia as a result of the conflict.
The price of oil is critical for gold. Oils rally has been a major source of concern as markets assess whether the global economy will face a stagflationary or inflationary shock. The conflict in Ukraine has serious and obvious implications for commodity prices. Will the implications for inflation, however, be more long-lasting than those for growth? Certainly, global central banks are concerned about one particular channel of self-reinforcing inflation inflation expectations could be de-anchored if the shock permeates the worlds psyche, analysts at TD Securities explained.
While the direct implications of the conflict on growth are more limited in the US, indirect implications may be more relevant as ongoing disruptions to supply chains may have a spillover effect, while inflation is also likely to act as a tax on consumers, the analysts added. If the shock depresses consumer sentiment at the same time, the Fed will have to walk a tightrope between its unemployment and inflation targets. As a result, the market has concluded that the Fed will remain nimble in order to avoid tipping the US economy into a recession for the time being, but the subsequent rate path and the path for quantitative tightening are less clear.
In this context, gold bugs are more likely to profit from a subsequent increase in central bank demand for gold, having observed the events unfold as potential vulnerabilities for national accounts.
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EUR/USD seeks to break a four-week downtrend near 1.1000, with a focus on US data and
The EUR/USD is licking its wounds after the ECB while making its way to 1.1000, up 0.15 percent intraday during the mid-Asian session on Friday. The pairs recent movements could be attributed to the markets uncertainty about the key risk catalysts, as well as a USD pullback. Nonetheless, the major currency pair is on track to end its four-week losing streak.
The US Senates passage of a $13.6 billion aid package to Ukraine and a $1.5 trillion bill to avoid a government shutdown could magnify Western aid to Kyiv, as seen in todays United Nations (UN) Security Council, which weighs on EUR/USD prices. Concerns about a new surge in Chinas covid cases, as well as fears about Russias invasion of Ukraine, are all on the same page. The quote was under downward pressure as a result of this. The previous days US inflation data and subsequent hopes for faster Fed rate hikes may also have contributed to the pairs weakness.
Alternatively, uncertainty over Russias military position in Ukraine, as well as a lack of major data/events in Asia, appears to limit EUR/USD downside. Having said that, reports of a Russian military attack on a Kharkiv institute containing an experimental nuclear reactor initially shook the market before the news of no negatives quelled fears. Similarly, reports that Moscows forces are gradually dispersing and may be retreating favoured the optimists prior to the US Satellite company Maxars update indicating more troops being redeployed.
Among these bets, the S&P 500 Futures fell 0.5 percent on the day, while US 10-year Treasury yields fell 4.4 basis points (bps) to 1.965 percent by press time. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains undecided around 98.50 but remains determined to reverse the previous four-week uptrend.
Its worth noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) cited inflationary challenges while releasing details on faster Quantitative Tapering (QT) the day before. Euro traders, on the other hand, focused on the eurozones currencys downwardly revised growth forecasts and upwardly revised inflation expectations. The ECBs statement, which left the door open to raising interest rates before the end of 2022 because soaring inflation outweighs concerns about the fallout from Russias invasion of Ukraine, The euro rose briefly before market sentiment turned negative, according to Reuters.
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The AUD/USD is expected to fall further towards 0.7200 as China and the Fed join the
As market sentiment deteriorates ahead of Mondays European session, the AUD/USD reverts to an intraday low around 0.7250, down 0.48 percent on the day. The risk barometer validates the markets recent pessimism, as well as its apprehension ahead of this weeks key Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC).
The improved progress in Ukraine-Russia peace talks was not enough to entice AUD/USD buyers, as the latest Russian shelling and demands for Kyiv to back down, as well as Ukraines push for more sanctions against Moscow, did. On the same vein, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated on CBSs Face the Nation programme that Russia may default on its debts as a result of unprecedented sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, but this would not trigger a default.
In other news, China has reported the highest daily covid infections since May 2020 and has imposed strict lockdowns in two states, bringing back the virus woes and weighing on the AUD/USD. The strength of US Treasury yields is also a challenge to the quote, as the 5-year bond coupon renews at an all-time high above 2.0 percent amid record inflation expectations, according to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data.
Among these bets, the S&P 500 Futures and the ASX 200 both pared early Asian session gains. Furthermore, Chinese stocks are falling, despite market expectations for a rate cut by the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC). As a result, risk aversion may continue to weigh on AUD/USD prices until commodities regain upside momentum, which is less likely given Chinas challenges.
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XAU/USD is approaching $1,935 as a result of Chinas commodity woes and Ukraine conce
Gold (XAU/USD) re-establishes an intraday low around $1,942, down 0.45 percent on the day, as COVID-19 concerns about China add to the yellow metals recent weakness during Tuesdays Asian session. Bears are also aided by mixed concerns about the Russia-Ukraine crisis, as well as higher US Treasury yields amid expectations of faster monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Nonetheless, the yellow metal began the trading week on a negative note, owing to a stronger US dollar and uncertainty over the Ukraine-Russia standoff.
Following the largest daily increase in covid infections, the latest virus numbers from China did not provide any relief. Mainland China reported 3,602 new confirmed coronavirus cases on March 14, according to the national health authority on Tuesday, up from 1,437 the day before, The dragon nation also declared a virus-induced lockdown in Langfang, a city near Beijing. Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyys office, was quoted by Sputnik as saying that a Moscow-Kyiv peace treaty could be reached as soon as two weeks or before late May. On the same vein, Ukraine President Zelenskyy recently stated that peace talks with Russia will resume on Tuesday, following an abrupt halt on Monday. However, reports of a Russian drone over Poland and sanctions imposed on Moscow, as well as Russia-Belarus refusal to pay for energy supplies in USD, cast doubt on the mood and weighed on gold prices.
Among these bets, the S&P 500 Futures pared an early Asian session gain, while US 10-year Treasury yields hovered near the highest levels since July 2019, around 2.14 percent at the time of publication.
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