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  1. #201
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    Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com
    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Downtrend Intact Amid Consolidation

    EUR/USD TECHNICAL STRATEGY: NET SHORT AT 1.2153
    Euro locked in familiar congestion area capped near 1.17 figure
    Dominant trend trajectory continues to favor broadly bearish bias
    EUR/USD short trade in play, looking for downtrend resumption
    The Euro remains locked in a choppy consolidation range after a rebound from support near the 1.13 figure stalled below resistance capping gains since early June. In fact – a brief swoon in mid-August notwithstanding – the pair has barely budged from the same congestion area since late May.
    Breaking above the outer layer of that barrier – now at 1.1702 – is needed to neutralize the near-term bearish bias. If that were to happen, the next resistance threshold would emerge in the 1.1840-52 area. Alternatively, a reversal back below support in the 1.1530-54 zone opens the door for descent back toward 1.13.
    Pulling back from near-term price action to size up longer-term positioning on the monthly chart, it seems clear enough that the dominant downtrend stretching back over a decade is intact. Furthermore, the most recent leg of that move – launched in April of this year – shows no apparent signs of having ended.With that in mind, the EUR/USD short position initially triggered at 1.2407 and subsequently scaled up, first near 1.19 and then once again at 1.1660, remains in play. A stop-loss will be activated on a discretionary basis, although a daily close above 1.1702 seems like a compelling reason for an exit.
    Read more:Forex News Archives - Market News & Analysis

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    Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 17/09/18

    It’s been a mixed start to the day, the majors giving up gains from earlier in the day, key levels needed to be held on to in support of an afternoon rally.
    Bitcoin Cash Steadies

    Bitcoin Cash gained 0.6% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 0.29% rise, to end the day at $450.7, with the weekend’s minor recovery leaving Bitcoin Cash down 6.4% for the week.
    A particularly choppy day saw Bitcoin Cash take a tumble through the day’s first major support level at $440.03 and second major support level at $431.77 to an intraday low $425.1 before bouncing back to $440 levels. A boost late in the day saw Bitcoin Cash move through to an intraday high $452, coming up short of the day’s first major resistance level at $459.53 before easing back to $450.
    At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 1.8% to $458.7, with Bitcoin Cash rallying at the start of the day to a morning high $463.4 before easing back. The moves through the early part of the day saw Bitcoin Cash test the first major resistance level at $460.1, while leaving the first major support level at $433.2 left untested.
    For the day ahead, holding on to $450 levels would support another run at $460 levels and the day’s first major resistance, with a breakout to test the second major resistance level at $469.5 in play should Bitcoin Cash avoid a late in the day reversal.
    Failure to hold on to $450 levels could see Bitcoin Cash fall pullback to $440 levels, while we would expect the day’s first major support level at $433.2 to be left untested barring materially negative news hitting the wires,
    Litecoin Up for a 4th Consecutive Day

    Litecoin gained 0.87% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 0.57% rise, to end the day at $56.84, the weekend moves giving Litecoin a 3.53% gain for the week.
    Tracking the broader market, Litecoin fell through the day’s first major support level at $55.22 to an early morning intraday low $54.45 before recovering. Support through the rest of the day saw Litecoin move to a late in the day intraday high $57.45 before easing back to $56 levels, the day’s high falling short of the first major resistance level at $58.4.
    At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 0.11% to $56.84, with an early move to a morning high $57.85 hitting reverse, Litecoin sitting just above a start of a day $56.8 low, the moves through the early hours leaving the major resistance and support levels untested.
    For the day ahead, a move back through to $57 levels would support another run at the day’s first major resistance level at $58.04, while we would expect Litecoin to fall short of $59 levels and the second major resistance level at $59.25, resistance expected to materially build on any moves through $58 levels.
    Failure to move back through to $57 levels and the morning high could see Litecoin hit reverse later in the day, with any pullback through $56.25 bringing sub-$56 levels and the day’s first major support level at $55.04 into play, more material declines dependent upon the news wires on the day.
    Read more:Cryptocurrency News Archives - Market News & Analysis

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    AUD/USD Rallies After Release of House Prices Data, RBA Minutes

    TALKING POINTS – AUD/USD, RBA, EQUITIES, TRADE WARS
    AUD/USD pares losses after mostly in-line housing inflation data, September RBA minutes
    However, AUD/USD is still engaged in downside momentum near Dec 2016 support levels
    US-China tariffs, equities’ performances, and Fed rate decision in the spotlight next two weeks
    The Australian Dollar strengthened against its US namesake after local economic data crossed the wires early into Tuesday’s Asia Pacific trading session. Second quarter year-on-year housing inflation came in at -0.6%, a slight uptick from economists’ forecasts of -0.7% and a decrease from the 2.0% prior. The gauge measured quarterly was -0.7% in line with both the estimate and previous figure of -0.7%. AUD/USD’s ascent helped pare losses sustained earlier in response to the Trump administration announcement of 10% tariffs on $200B worth of Chinese goods, rising to 25% in 2019.
    The rise in Aussie Dollar was further compounded by the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September 4th meeting minutes. The central bank noted that while there was no strong case for near-term adjustment in policy, the next move in the cash rate is more likely to be an increase. The monetary authority also stated that while risks remain from uncertainty abroad and low wages growth, the modest decline in the Australian Dollar has been helpful for domestic growth.
    As the RBA highlighted, the sentiment-linked unit has been steadily weakening against the US Dollar for the majority of 2018. Recently, the pair broke May/December 2016 support levels near the 0.716 figure, but slightly reversed its bearish momentum. AUD/USD traders should look to signs of possible RSI divergence and confirmation by breaking the downtrend channel before next moves.
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    EUR/USD Back to Key Resistance as the Nikkei Breaks Out Ahead of BoJ

    Talking Points:
    – Global equities remain on the move and the Nikkei has broken out from a big level of resistance over the past few trading days, adding a bit of resolution to an ascending triangle formation that’s been building over the past few months. Later tonight/early-Wednesday brings a Bank of Japan rate decision with very few expectations for anything new. Will the BoJ provide any hints or clues towards future changes towards their QE policy that just so happens to buy ETF’s of the very same indices that have been breaking out ahead of the meeting?
    – In FX-land, the week started with haste but has since calmed, as both EUR/USD and the US Dollar are holding at key areas on the chart. In EUR/USD, prices have returned to the big resistance zone that we’ve been following that runs from 1.1709-1.1750. Bulls don’t look to soon let up, so at this stage a resistance break is starting to feel more likely. In the US Dollar, on the other hand, prices have built into a descending triangle formation as the Dollar continues to sit on support.
    EUR/USD BACK TO CONFLUENT RESISTANCE: WILL BULLS FINALLY BREAK FREE?

    At this point the primary hope is that EUR/USD is earning frequent flyer miles for all of these trips back to resistance, as we’re now seeing the third such visit to this zone over the past three weeks. We’ve been following the resistance area in EUR/USD that runs from 1.1709-1.1750; looking for a topside break to re-open the door to longer-term themes of continuation.
    This area had helped to hold the highs in the latter-portion of July, but it also contains multiple Fibonacci levels in the same range. This is a confluent area as there are multiple reasons for sellers to come-in and respond, and that’s largely what we’ve been seeing over the past few weeks. But following each response, we’ve seen an increasingly strong response from bulls as buyers have started to come-in at higher-lows. On the chart below, we’ve added a blue bullish trend-line underneath the higher-lows that have printed over the past week, following last week’s support test at the 1.1530 level
    Read more:Forex News Archives - Market News & Analysis

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    Gold Price Prediction – Gold Edges HIgher but Cannot Break Out

    Gold prices moved higher on Thursday, buoyed by a drop in the dollar, as yields pulled back. US 2-year yields hit a decade old high on Wednesday and appear to have pulled back despite robust economic data. The dollar tumbled through support levels giving a boost to commodities like gold that are priced in US dollars.
    Technical Analysis

    Jobless Claims Drop Following Hurricane Florence
    The commerce department reported that US Initial jobless claims, fell by 3,000 to 201,000 in the week ended Sept. 15. Expectations were for claims to rise by 4,000. This marks the lowest level since 1969. Continuing claims also declined by 55,000 to 1.65 million. They have fallen to the lowest level since 1973. The drop in jobless claims was mostly attributed to the disruption caused by Hurricane Florence. Since those without jobs were unable to file a claim or pick up checks, the numbers dropped more than expected. The numbers show that the jobs market remains tight and wages are on the rise. This continues to point to the Fed increasing interest rates when they meet later this month.Gold prices edged higher but were unable to push through resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,307. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,200. Prices are trading sideways which has pushed the Bollinger band width to the lowest levels seen since June which reflects declining volatility. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast-stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...orex-forecast/

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    Dow Leads an Indisputable Risk Advance; Dollar, Pound and Kiwi Top FX Movers

    Talking Points:
    There was little missing the risk advance this past session with the Dow notching its first record high since January
    Is the Dollar following its safe haven role, trade wars or something else with its critical technical breakdown Thursday?
    Brexit talk doesn’t deflate the Pound, Kiwi earns a few key breaks on GDP data, Oil drops after Trump calls out OPEC
    There was an unmistakable advance in risk assets this past session. Where the previous bouts of enthusiasm were concentrated on certain assets or regions, what we’ve seen develop this week seems to span all assets with a sentiment connection. US indices took up their lead again with the S&P 500 jumping to a fresh record high while the Nasdaq’s own bullish gap fell short of a new historical milestone. The most impressive showing in this group however was earned by the Dow. The ‘blue chip’ index marked its first fresh peak since January on its most remarkable three-day run in a month. The enthusiasm didn’t stop at the borders of the US equity market. European and Asian shares earned substantial gains of their own without the same US milestones. Emerging market contagion fears have clearly faded into the backdrop with the EEM advancing into trendline resistance. The HYG junk bond ETF, the Dow Jones commodity index, US 10-year Treasury yield and Yen crosses (as carry) all pulled higher. Seeing such a wide array of assets climb in tandem is a strong sign that risk appetite is responsible. However, such a cue does not guarantee follow through. What is motivating this advance beyond loose, after-the-fact justification and FOMO (fear of missing out)? It isn’t about the break, it’s the follow through that stages profit.
    DOLLAR POSTS A KEY BEARISH BREAK WITH A QUESTIONABLE FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
    If we were applying the most facile interpretation of fundamental motivations, the Dollar’s drop this past session would make sense. We have long labeled this currency a ‘safe haven’, and that is still a position it occupies today. However, the Greenback is more earnestly a ‘haven of last resort’ with its sensitivity to investor appetites significantly muted at present. If anything, the benchmark currency would rise alongside risk trends. The Fed is the only major central bank that has raised its interest rate consistently (even if gradually) since before the Great Financial Crisis. Further, the Fed is expected to hike its benchmark rate again as soon as next Wednesday. So if that is written off, where is the pressure behind the USD that could lead it into a sustainable bear trend? Thematically, trade wars were waning and real rates were slowly painting a more favorable picture. On the data side, the disappointment in existing home sales was moderate but the climb in net household wealth furthered the confidence that only comes with a cash buffer. Motivation is likely arising from a collective improvement in critical counterparts, but that is a hit-or-miss driver. In short, I am a medium-term Dollar bear; but I don’t presume conviction and run from the market just because it aligns to my own beliefs.
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    Dollar Support Kicks in as Market Risk Appetite Sinks

    Trade war jitters return, weighing on the equity markets and commodity currencies, Trump’s 2nd general assembly speech tomorrow of little comfort.
    Earlier in the Day:
    There were no material stats released through the Asian session this morning, with China and Japan on holiday, leaving the markets to consider geo-political headwinds and key events and stats scheduled for the week, along with the rollout of tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods later today.
    At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was flat at ¥112.59, pinned back by a stronger U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar also in the red, risk aversion at the start of the week hitting the pair as trade war jitters return to the markets ahead of Trump’s address to the General Assembly at the UN on Tuesday.
    In the equity markets, the ASX200 was down 0.27%, with over half of the 200 listed in the red in at the start of the week, sliding mining and metals stocks doing the damage early on, an rally in crude oil prices providing little support. Things were not much better for the Hang Seng that opened down 1.07%, the shift in sentiment hitting the tech sector once more, with Tencent down 1.5% at the open, with bank stocks also seeing heavy losses early on.
    The Day Ahead:
    For the EUR, key stats scheduled for release are limited to August business sentiment numbers out of Germany. The Ifo Business Climate Index is forecasted to soften, with both the Business Expectations and Current Assessment numbers also forecasted to be on the softer side, which would be in line with recent stats out of Germany that have disappointed.
    Outside of the numbers, ECB President Draghi is scheduled to speak this afternoon that could influence direction should any references be made to policy, Draghi having skirted the subject in speeches following the latest ECB press conference.
    At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.03% to $1.1745, with today’s stats and Draghi to provide some direction, while risk sentiment will likely be the key driver through the day.
    For the Pound, it’s a quiet day on the data front, with stats limited to CBI Industrial Trend Order figures for September that are forecasted to be Sterling negative. While we can expect a reaction to the numbers, stats are likely to continue to be overshadowed by market sentiment towards Brexit, the British Prime Minister meeting the cabinet later today for the first time since last week’s Austrian debacle.
    Outside of the stats the BoE Financial Stability Report due out later this morning will also provide some direction, as the FCP identifies key risks to the global and UK economies, with the prospects of a no-deal exit from the EU likely to be a key component of the report released by the FCP. With BoE Governor Carney amongst the Committee members, it may not be pleasant reading if his last session with Cabinet ministers is anything to go by…
    At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.08% to $1.3083 with Brexit and the BoE’s Financial Stability Report the key drivers for the day.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/

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    US Dollar Presses Recent Low But Lacks the Punch

    US Dollar tests recent lows just below 94, but cannot punch through with force. The Elliott Wave counts are mixed so be mindful of a rally.
    The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from September 24, 2018. We focused on the Elliott Wave and patterns for Dollar Index, EURUSD, NZDUSD, Gold, and Silver. The patterns may subdivide into complex corrections though we are anticipating another round of round of dollar weakness over the medium term.
    DOLLAR INDEX TESTS 3 WEEK LOW
    US Dollar Index keeps probing its recent lows. The jury is still out as to whether this is circle wave ‘c’ lower or a complex circle wave ‘b’ that will shoot higher to finalize. With DXY yet to meaningfully break 93.63, we need to respect the potential for circle wave ‘b’ to continue higher and retest 95.25 and possibly 96. Otherwise, a meaningful break below 93.63 opens the door to 93.26 and possibly 91.72.
    The bearish view is valid so long as dollar index holds below 96.98.
    EURUSD ELLIOTT WAVE CHART POINTS TO MULTI-MONTH RALLY

    The EURUSD chart is the opposite of DXY. The upper key level is 1.1862. Until a meaningful break of this level occurs, we are considering the move higher as a ‘b’ wave. This suggests a correction lower in a ‘c’ wave to 1.1550 and possibly 1.1450.
    Since August 20, we have been anticipating a multi-month rally in EURUSD as the Elliott Wave from February 2018 concludes. If EURUSD does drop to 1.1550, then we will be looking for bullish symptoms as an ensuring rally may drive it above 1.18 towards 1.20-1.22.
    Sentiment has certainly fed a movement higher in EURUSD as traders dropped from being 41% long to 37% long earlier today. This is not a meaningful move either way to offer clarity to the patterns.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/

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    EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro softens ahead of FOMC

    The Euro fell a bit against the US dollar were to kick off Wednesday, as we awaited the FOMC statement. Quite frankly, I don’t think there’s going to be much in the way of surprises, but this always causes a bit of volatility and concern. Perhaps there was a bit of profit taking ahead of the announcement.
    The Euro fell towards the 1.1725 region ahead of the FOMC statement, which isn’t much of a surprise, and unfortunately you can’t read too much into, as a lot of traders would have chosen to be on the sidelines heading into that announcement. Long gone are the days of news trading, especially on the retail side as it has proven itself to be almost impossible competing against the computers. However, longer-term decisions could be made after this announcement, and I think it will show itself in the form of whether we are above the 1.18 level are not at the end of the session. If we are, then I think the market breaks out and reaches towards the 1.20 level above.
    If we were to break down below the 1.17 handle, then I think will probably go to the 1.16 level, and then eventually the 1.15 level after that. Expect a lot of volatility, but I do think that over the longer-term we are probably looking towards a breakout given enough time. That doesn’t mean that is going to be easy, and there is also the possibility that we stay within the longer-term consolidation area, but we have seen so much in the way of bullish pressure as of late that I think eventually the breakout is a foregone conclusion. That could send this market towards the 1.0 level next, which is an area that has been important in the past.
    Read more:Forex Forecast Archives - Market News & Analysis

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    Gold Price Prediction – Prices Drop as The Dollar Rallies

    Gold prices tumbled on Thursday, as traders buoyed the dollar following Wednesday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. What was clear from the Fed decision is that looking forward the Fed will continue to raise rates until 2020. When rates hit 3.375%, the Fed believes they will have hit neutrality. As the yield differential moved in favor of the greenback, the dollar rose weighing on the yellow metal. Since gold is priced in dollars, a strong dollar makes gold less attractive in other currencies. US pending home sales disappointed as supplies rose but not where demand is available.
    Technical Analysis

    Gold prices dropped on Thursday hitting a fresh monthly low, as the dollar gained traction. Target support on the yellow metal is seen near the August lows at 1,160. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,198. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.
    Read more:Forex Forecast Archives - Market News & Analysis

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