Forex News from InstaForex

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  1. #931
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    Forex News from InstaForex
    Gold has good prospects in the long-term



    Gold suddenly went out of the way after starting 2022 positively. However, experts consider the current fall short-term, expecting the yellow metal to rise in the long term. The current.

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  2. #932
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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar still dominates other major currencies



    Europe's single currency cannot outperform the US dollar. This was stated by Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank. One of the main reasons is that the European regulator is the most static central bank in the world. Thus, the European Union's benchmark interest rate has remained at zero for quite some time, i.e. has not changed since March 2016. Furthermore, ECB head Christine Lagarde sees no reason to raise interest rates in 2022.

    According to Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation rose to 4.9% in November, the highest in 25 years. Jakobsen believes that the EU economy can grow faster than the economies of other countries or show a current account surplus. The surplus is falling due to obvious difficulties in the services sector. This also applies to Germany, the eurozone's largest economy.

    As for the US dollar, according to the SWIFT, it was still able to hold onto its position as the main currency in the international settlement ranking in November. Thus, the US dollar gained 39.16%. That means it rose by 1.53% in 12 months. It has strengthened due to the widening interest rate gap as well as inflation dynamics in the US compared to other major markets such as Japan and Europe.

    The euro was clearly underperforming. It gained 37.66%, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.22%. Among the leaders were the British pound, Japanese yen, and Chinese renminbi.

    A monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, which is expected by analysts in March, will give the dollar the strongest support, making it extremely difficult for most currencies to rise against the US dollar in the coming months.

    It is the interest rate differential, not the coronavirus, that will determine sentiment in the major currency markets in the near future. The vast majority of analysts polled by Reuters are confident that fluctuations in the currency markets will become noticeably greater over the next three months. Notably, this confidence applies not only to the currencies of the major markets but also to emerging market currencies.

    After an interest rate hike already in the first month of spring, the US regulator is expected to start reducing its assets. The dollar could then feel superior to the other major currencies. By the way, financial markets expect at least three rate hikes in the US this year.

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  3. #933
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    Is the EUR/USD pair preparing for a new battle?



    Some analysts explain the short-term lull in the EUR/USD pair by grouping before a new surge. First of all, this concerns the US dollar, in the shadow of which the euro resides.

    The US currency started the current year with a rise and is trying to consolidate in an upward trend. It already succeeds in this without huge efforts, contrary to the euro, which is still lying low. However, the US dollar remained inactive, weakly reacting to what was happening. On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1341. The pair is now dominated by a bullish mood, which can change anytime. The possible targets for the bulls are 1.1364, 1.1385, and 1.1442.

    Currently, the US dollar is moving in the middle of the current range against major world currencies, as markets are waiting for the Fed's decisions on the timing and pace of normalization of monetary policy. The regulator keeps the markets in suspense, continuing the "hawkish" strategy launched at the end of December 2021. Experts are worried about the Fed's excessive enthusiasm, which is ready to use every fund to curb the powerful inflation.

    Amid the Federal Reserve's high activity, the smoother actions of the ECB seem unnecessarily slow. Analysts fear that the European regulator will lose time to normalize the economic situation in the region. This development of events will seriously weaken the euro, which somewhat looks neglected right now. Experts consider Europe's sharp rise in gas prices to be an additional negative factor for the euro. The strengthening of this trend contributes to the further decline of the euro and the strengthening of its rival in the EUR/USD pair. After all, the US currency is given a head start in anticipation of a rate hike in March 2022 and an accelerated transition to cut stimulus.

    The cycle of key rate hikes launched by the Fed in the middle of this year will clearly strengthen the US currency. According to experts, the main factors that support it are the tightening of monetary policy and the potential outflow of capital from emerging markets. It can be recalledd that the continued stimulus from the regulator and the negative US trade balance contribute to the weakening of the US dollar. Analysts said that the US dollar strengthening is impossible without tightening monetary policy.

    The current instability in the world is pushing experts to negative forecasts. Many of them admit that currency battles will emerge in the near future. The implementation of such a scenario will lead to the devaluation of national currencies in relation to foreign ones. The "core" of such a war can be the US dollar, around which the entire financial world revolves. It is possible that this currency will take the victory again or share the throne with the euro. Moreover, excessive inflation could be the catalyst for the financial battle. According to analysts, the EUR/USD pair is highly likely to converge on the global markets.

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    Did the Fed cause the US dollar to collapse?



    The US dollar dropped after the Fed's statements about the duration of the normalization of monetary policy. During this process, the indicated currency risks losing its advantages as the main safe-haven currency.

    On Wednesday, the US currency collapsed to its lowest level since November 2021. The main reason for this was the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who allowed a gradual increase in interest rates amid the continuous high inflation in the United States. The regulator's management believes that it will take several months to make a decision to cut the central bank's balance sheet by $ 9 trillion.

    In a similar situation, this currency found itself in a slight stupor state, trying to cope with the current losses. Powell's statements that the US economy "does not need aggressive monetary stimulus measures" exerted additional pressure. The central bank is ready to start normalizing monetary policy, but this process will take time. During the speech of the Fed chairman, the markets expected to find signals about the possible timing of the first rate hike. However, the situation remained unclear, as the head of the regulator stressed that the Fed did not focus on the timing of amendments to the monetary policy and did not make decisions on reducing the balance sheet.

    The tension of the general background of the global financial market shocked the US dollar. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was in the range of 1.1373-1.1374. At the same time, the Euro currency has slightly risen since the close of the previous session, in which it was trading at the level of 1.1364.

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    EUR/USD: Euro's gradual movements are more effective than the US dollar's surges



    The US currency, which has fallen again after some macro statistics, finds it difficult to maintain balance in the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the euro is having a hard time keeping up with the US dollar, so it prefers to move slowly but surely towards achieving its goal.

    Currently, the market is evaluating the US inflation data released yesterday. According to the report, consumer prices in the country in December 2021 increased by 0.5%, accelerating to 7% year-on-year. The key index gained 0.6% over the month, rising to 5.5% year-on-year. As for the prices excluding energy carriers and food, more than 1.7% was added in three months.

    Based on the data obtained, economists concluded that high inflation penetrates into the very core of the economy. In this situation, the Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates in March 2022. The regulator fears not only soaring inflation but also the "overheated" US labor market. The Fed officials consider high inflation a significant threat to a full economic recovery, so they are ready to raise interest rates since there is no longer a need for emergency monetary support.

    As a response to the published macro data, the US dollar sharply declined. It is worth noting that the EUR/USD pair passed through the upper border of the range 1.1200-1.1350 again before the release of the report. To date, the upward movement of the pair continues. The EUR/USD pair rose by 0.5% immediately after the release of inflation data, leaving the level of 1.1400 behind. On Thursday morning, it was trading at the level of 1.1444, trying to break new borders.

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    US dollar is trying to resist the decline amid statistics and high inflation



    The US currency has to fight the collapse again at the end of the week, resisting the negative impact of several factors, including the problem of macro statistics. Nevertheless, experts are confident that it will recover without much loss.

    For a long time, this currency remains hostage to high US inflation. It can be recalled that the December macro statistics showed the highest core inflation over the past 40 years. The recent US CPI excluding food and energy in annual terms was 5.5%, which is higher than November's 4.9%. Current macro reports have shown that the expectation of the Fed's decisive action has reached a peak. The current situation practically sharply affected the US dollar, which is trying to resist the impact of negative factors.

    It has now suffered significant losses, including a key technical breakthrough in the EUR/USD pair. On Thursday, the classic pair broke the resistance line around 1.1386, which limited the actions of the EUR/USD pair since November 2021. The reason for this is the sharp weakening of the US currency, recorded after the release of the December CPI. On Friday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1477, trying to keep its won positions.

    Experts consider the level of 1.1500 to be the next important resistance area for the pair. This is the previous low of the EUR/USD pair recorded before its massive collapse last November. The current situation is much the same. Today, the US dollar hit its biggest weekly drop in eight months. The reason for this is a sharp reduction in long positions on the USD and the markets taking into account several Fed rate hikes in its price.

    According to analysts, expectations of decisive action from the Fed do not matter much for the US dollar. Earlier, the US currency collapsed amid a sharp rise in the price of a number of commodities. The only "trump card" it has now will be another search for a safe haven if risk sentiment changes dramatically. The dynamics of this currency are significantly affected by inflation, and most often negatively. The Fed keeps the need to outpace its growth, and this tension has a negative impact on the American currency.

    However, many experts are optimistic about the US dollar's medium and long-term prospects. Specialists believe that it will systematically strengthen, alternating ups and downs. Analysts summarize that this is facilitated by the continued growth of commodities and the global asset market.

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    Musk says Tesla to accept dogecoin

    On Friday, Musk announced on Twitter that Tesla Inc would accept Dogecoin as payment for its products, such as the Giga Texas belt buckle and mini-model electric cars.



    The news sent the value of Dogecoin soaring more than 14%. The move comes a month after Musk said Tesla would test out the digital token as a payment option.

    Musk had already hit Bitcoin prices hard in the spring of 2021 with the same announcement, promising that the company would accept Bitcoins to buy its cars. However, he later changed his mind. So, some analysts believe this is Elon Musk's way of covering up the slump after the postponement of Cydertrack.

    Thus, production of Tesla's much-anticipated Cybertruck will start in the first quarter of 2023, pushing back plans to start production in late 2022.

    However, Tesla products, including the recently launched Cyberwhistle and Cyberquad for Kids, have been in steady demand and typically sell out within hours of being put up for sale, even when paid for in regular currencies. But some analysts are predicting a new surge in popularity for Tesla merchandise once token payment is introduced.

    Due to Musk's tweets about Dogecoin, the little-known digital currency, which began as a social media joke, has become one of the most recognizable and well-growing tokens. Its price has risen by around 4,000% in 2021.

    Last year, Tesla said it had bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoins. Musk also mentioned that he had Bitcoins and Dogecoins. However, as early as May, it was revealed that Elon had gotten rid of many cryptocurrency assets. This information confuses investors.

    This may be an attempt to put competitive pressure on rivals, as traditional carmakers such as Ford Motor Co, as well as start-ups including Rivian Automotive, are set to launch their electric cars this year.

    However, it is not yet clear how this trade move will be received by lawmakers, who have recently become concerned about crypto regulation.

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  8. #938
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    Stock markets up as China lowers interest rate

    On Monday, global stock indices posted robust growth on positive news form China. It was reported that the People's Bank of China lowered its key interest rate in an effort to support the country's struggling economy. Today, the US stock market is closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Therefore, trading activity in Europe and China was rather low. Despite this fact, major stock indices still managed to reach local highs and lows.



    Thus, China's stock market closed the session with notable gains: the Shanghai Composite Index jumped by 0.6% to 3,541.7.

    Dalian Haosen Equipment Manufacturing Co Ltd and Beijing Baolande Software Corp. topped the list of best performing shares.

    The shares of Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co Ltd and Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co Ltd. Were among the losing ones.

    A confident rise in the SSE Composite Index is attributed to higher-than-expected growth of the country's economy in the last quarter of 2021. At the same time, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, its GDP in Q4 was the lowest since mid-2020 (+4%).

    In the third quarter of 2021, China's economy expanded by 4.9% compared to the same period in 2020. This was the reason why the central bank of China has unexpectedly cut its interest rate. Market analysts expect that in 2022 the measures taken by the central bank will help protect the economy against a significant slowdown.

    As a reminder, at the beginning of 2021, the Chinese economy showed a steady rise after the coronavirus crisis. Yet, falling consumption in the last quarter of 2021 limited the pace of recovery.

    Meanwhile, European stock markets opened another trading week in positive territory. Again, the data from China served as the main growth catalyst.

    At the time of writing, the STOXX Europe 600 index increased by 0.35% to 482.8, the French CAC 40 added 0.42%, the German DAX rose by 0.22%, and the British FTSE 100 Index gained 0.61 %.

    The worst result was posted by the largest food manufacturer - Unilever: its shares lost 6.7%. Meanwhile, the Swiss financial conglomerate Credit Suisse Group AG also showed a noticeable decline in share prices (-2.1%).

    Among the leaders were Spanish bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., with a rise of 0.5%, and European airline group Air France-KLM, whose shares added 0.8%.

    According to analysts, the policy of China's central bank and its effect on the global economy will remain the main driver for markets this week.

    Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to earnings reports from the largest US corporations. Goldman Sachs will publish its data on Tuesday, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble on Wednesday, and American Airlines and Netflix on Thursday.

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    Will the euro sharply rise again?



    The Euro continues to compete with the US dollar, trying to leave the outsider levels. However, these attempts are most often unsuccessful. The euro's short-term growth does not have a significant impact on its overall pessimistic mood.

    Over the past year, the price of the EUR/USD pair has declined by 6.9%. The weakest link of the pair, which is the Euro currency, got the most blow. Experts said that the euro should not count on major achievements this year. Its weakness contributes to the excessive caution of the European regulator.

    Currently, the Fed and other central banks have expressed their readiness to normalize monetary policy as soon as possible. Experts stressed that this contrasts sharply with the ECB's inaction. This strategy of the European regulator contributes to the further decline of the euro and increased inflation.

    Markets have high hopes for the upcoming changes in the Fed's strategy, which include cutting stimulus and raising the key rate. The currency market is now under pressure from the growth of the USD and the increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The US dollar's strengthening prevents the euro from rising, but the latter does not give up.

    Moreover, the growth of the yield of US government bonds supports the US currency before the Fed meeting. On Wednesday, it strengthened its position after a sharp rise in the yield of US government bonds. Markets are waiting nervously for the Fed to raise interest rates, and this sends the EUR/USD pair to new frontiers.

    In the current situation, the pair found itself under bearish pressure, while the US currency strengthened amid the rising treasury yields. On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair managed to reach the level of 1.1400, but further gains stalled. Experts said that the pair failed to develop an upward movement. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1331, trying to rise higher, but failed.

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Pound's growth contains a downward reversal



    Experts found signs of a downward movement in the dynamics of the British currency, which rapidly increased after the publication of economic data in the country. Analysts say that a potential reversal to low values will create a price fluctuation for the pound.

    At the end of 2021, the pound rose intensely after the Bank of England's interest rate hike. This year, the British currency tried to stay in an upward trend, acting with varying success. Analysts are afraid of negative changes in the dynamics of the pound, which the British regulator is able to influence. The revision of the current monetary policy is possible after the release of disappointing macro data on the UK economy.

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