Forex News from InstaForex

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    Forex News from InstaForex
    EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: SWISS GDP DATA DUE



    Quarterly national accounts data from Switzerland is due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

    At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's import prices for October. Import price inflation is expected to climb to 19.6 percent from 17.7 percent in September.

    In the meantime, retail sales and household consumption figures are due from Norway.

    At 2.45 am ET, France Insee is scheduled to issue consumer sentiment survey results. The confidence index is expected to fall marginally to 98 in November from 99 in October.

    At 3.00 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, releases Swiss GDP data for the third quarter. Economists forecast the economy to grow 2 percent sequentially after rising 1.8 percent in the second quarter. In the meantime, economic tendency survey results are due from Sweden.

    At 3.30 am ET, Statistics Sweden publishes retail sales for October. Sales had dropped 0.3 percent on month in September.

    At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank releases monetary aggregates for October. M3 is forecast to grow 7.4 percent annually, the same rate as seen in September.

    Also, business confidence from Italy and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results from Austria are due.

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    DUTCH PRODUCER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES IN NOVEMBER



    Dutch producer confidence improves in November, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

    The producer sentiment index rose to 12.7 in November from 12.3 in October. This was above the average score of 0.7 seen over the past twenty years.

    The latest reading was the strongest since 1985.

    Producers were particularly positive about the order position, while assessment of stocks of finished goods improved, the agency said.

    There were more entrepreneurs who expected their production to increase in the coming three months, the agency said.

    The producers in the electrical and machine industry were more positive in November.

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    ESTONIA RETAIL SALES RISE IN OCTOBER



    Estonia retail sales increased in October, data from Statistics Estonia showed on Tuesday.

    Retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motor cycles trade, rose 10.0 percent year-on-year in October.

    "In October, turnover increased in grocery stores and in stores selling manufactured goods as well as in enterprises engaged in the retail sale of automotive fuel," Jaanika Tiigiste, leading analyst at Statistics Estonia, said.

    The biggest increase was seen in stores selling manufacturing goods, by 16.0 percent and stores selling household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials rose 21.0 percent.

    On a monthly basis, retail sales fell 2.0 percent in October.

    On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales gained 1.0 percent monthly in October.

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    CHINA MANUFACTURING SECTOR FALLS INTO CONTRACTION - CAIXIN



    The manufacturing sector in China slipped into contraction territory in November, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.9.

    That's down from 50.6 in October and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

    Chinese manufacturing output rose for the first time since July during November, though the rate of expansion was only fractional. Panel members indicated that firmer market conditions and a relative improvement in energy supply had supported higher production. That said, subdued customer demand, rising costs and limited power supply at some firms dampened overall growth.

    Total new work fell marginally in November, following two months of expansion. Some firms linked relatively muted demand conditions to the pandemic and high output prices. New work from abroad also fell, albeit at the softest rate for four months, amid reports of reduced foreign demand due to the ongoing pandemic and challenges in shipping items to clients.

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    AUSTRALIA HOME LOANS SINK 4.1% IN OCTOBER



    The value of owner-occupied home loans in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 4.1 percent on month in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at A$19.84 billion.

    That missed forecasts for an increase of 1.0 percent following the 2.7 percent decline in September.

    Investment lending was up 1.1 percent to A$9.73 billion after gaining 1.4 percent in the previous month.

    Overall home loans were worth A$29.57 billion, down 2.5 percent on month.

    On a yearly basis, owner occupied loans were up 15.1 percent, investment lending skyrocketed 89.6 percent and overall lending surged 32.2 percent.

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    FITCH LOWERS TURKEY'S SOVEREIGN RATING OUTLOOK



    Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook on Turkey's sovereign ratings to Negative from Stable, citing various risks to macroeconomic and financial stability and potential external financing pressures.

    The rating agency said the central bank's premature monetary policy easing cycle and the prospect of further rate cuts or additional economic stimulus ahead of the 2023 presidential election have led to a deterioration in domestic confidence, reflected in a sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira and rising inflation.

    These developments create risks to macroeconomic and financial stability and could potentially re-ignite external financing pressures, Fitch noted.

    Further, the agency viewed that the proximity of the 2023 electoral cycle will have an impact on policy direction and expectations of economic actors.

    The sovereign ratings were affirmed at 'BB-'. The credit ratings reflect weak monetary policy credibility, high inflation, low external liquidity in the context of high financing requirements and geopolitical risks.

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    AUSTRALIA DATA ON TAP FOR MONDAY



    Australia will on Monday see November figures for job ads and inflation, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

    In October, the job advertisement survey from ANZ was up 6.2 percent on month, while the inflation gauge from TD Securities was up 0.2 percent on month.

    Also, the markets in Thailand are closed on Monday in observance of the late King Bhumibol's birthday; they'll re-open on Tuesday.

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    EUR/USD: Euro believed in itself and pushed the US dollar aside

    The European currency was under strong pressure at the beginning of this week, fluctuating on the verge of a serious collapse. However, it found balance and tried to rise, pulling the EUR/USD pair to a new level.

    In view of a relatively volatile US dollar, the euro steadily fell, occasionally rising to an acceptable level. Experts did not give it a chance, because the ECB's "dovish" strategy was acting against it. It can be recalled that the European regulator adheres to the position of non-interference in the current monetary policy, refusing to curtail incentives and raise rates. It seems that the ECB is following the path of the Fed, which until recently insisted on the "temporary" nature of inflation. Now, its European colleague is doing this.

    The US currency retains its basic strength against the European one. It is supported by market expectations about the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and the prospect of a rate hike in May next year. According to preliminary calculations, three rate increases are expected in 2022, starting from the last month of spring. This decision is facilitated by the revival of inflation expectations in the United States, which recovered after falling to the highs of November 2021.

    Analysts explain the current strengthening of the indicator by the "hawkish" attitude of the Fed, whose representatives ignored weak data on the US labor market (nonfarm payrolls). The focus is on the upcoming report on US inflation, which may cover the negative impact of Nonfarm data. According to preliminary estimates, US consumer prices in November increased to 6.7% year-on-year.

    At the moment, there is a situation in the market that is not too favorable for the US currency. Experts have recorded an increase in risk sentiment and a departure from the "safe haven" currencies, primarily from the USD. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1294. The euro managed to make an upturn and catch up a little. A day earlier, the Euro currency was trading in the range of 1.1263-1.1266.

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    AUD/USD: Australian dollar is on upswing



    The Australian dollar is growing on increased risk appetite, pushing new highs. However, it could be a short-term rise, analysts warn.

    AUD started the week on an uptrend and extended it on Tuesday, making the biggest gains in six weeks. AUD/USD added 0.6% on Tuesday and reached 0.7091. The rally was triggered by the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which left the key interest rate at the record low level of 0.10%. On Wednesday, the Australian currency reached the weekly high on increased risk appetite. AUD/USD slightly rebounded but remained on the upswing, hovering near 0.7135.

    The Australian dollar rose on positive news regarding the new Omicron strain of COVID-19, which could be less severe than previously anticipated. According to Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the emergence of Omicron is "a new source of uncertainty", but it won't obstruct the economic recovery.

    A preliminary outlook suggests that Australian economy would reach pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022. By downplaying Omicron risks, the regulator hinted at an earlier interest rate hike. Earlier, the RBA warned it would not raise the rate until 2023. The markets have already priced in a possible rate hike, as market players expect a change in monetary policy by July 2022.

    Improving business sentiment in Asia and rising iron ore prices also gave support to the Aussie. AUD was also boosted by improved outlook of the Reserve Bank of Australia on economic recovery. According to Philip Lowe, household consumption and the labor market are expected to recover by the end of 2021, along with a further rise of salaries and increased investments. The high level of vaccination in Australia and the resulting collective immunity is the likely reason to Omicron's low impact on the Australian economy. As a result, the country could avoid new lockdowns and put its economy back on track.

    Decreasing unemployment is another positive factor for Australia - in November, the amount of job vacancies exceeded the pre-pandemic level by 44%. An outlook by ANZ sees unemployment fall to 4% by the end of 2022, while wages growth would rise to 3%. Thanks to relaxed quarantine measures boosting the Australian economy, the amount of job vacancies soared by 7.4% in November, as companies actively increased their spending.

    AUD has also found support in rising inflation expectations. The RBA expects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2023. Currently, the base inflation rate is near the lower end of the inflation target range of 2-3%. Given the current situation, the regulator is open to revising its bond buying program, as well as potentially cancelling it in February 2022. The end of QE stimulus and positive economic trends push the Australian dollar up.

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    - - - Updated - - -

    AUD/USD: Australian dollar is on upswing

    The Australian dollar is growing on increased risk appetite, pushing new highs. However, it could be a short-term rise, analysts warn.

    AUD started the week on an uptrend and extended it on Tuesday, making the biggest gains in six weeks. AUD/USD added 0.6% on Tuesday and reached 0.7091. The rally was triggered by the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which left the key interest rate at the record low level of 0.10%. On Wednesday, the Australian currency reached the weekly high on increased risk appetite. AUD/USD slightly rebounded but remained on the upswing, hovering near 0.7135.

    The Australian dollar rose on positive news regarding the new Omicron strain of COVID-19, which could be less severe than previously anticipated. According to Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the emergence of Omicron is "a new source of uncertainty", but it won't obstruct the economic recovery.

    A preliminary outlook suggests that Australian economy would reach pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022. By downplaying Omicron risks, the regulator hinted at an earlier interest rate hike. Earlier, the RBA warned it would not raise the rate until 2023. The markets have already priced in a possible rate hike, as market players expect a change in monetary policy by July 2022.

    Improving business sentiment in Asia and rising iron ore prices also gave support to the Aussie. AUD was also boosted by improved outlook of the Reserve Bank of Australia on economic recovery. According to Philip Lowe, household consumption and the labor market are expected to recover by the end of 2021, along with a further rise of salaries and increased investments. The high level of vaccination in Australia and the resulting collective immunity is the likely reason to Omicron's low impact on the Australian economy. As a result, the country could avoid new lockdowns and put its economy back on track.

    Decreasing unemployment is another positive factor for Australia - in November, the amount of job vacancies exceeded the pre-pandemic level by 44%. An outlook by ANZ sees unemployment fall to 4% by the end of 2022, while wages growth would rise to 3%. Thanks to relaxed quarantine measures boosting the Australian economy, the amount of job vacancies soared by 7.4% in November, as companies actively increased their spending.

    AUD has also found support in rising inflation expectations. The RBA expects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2023. Currently, the base inflation rate is near the lower end of the inflation target range of 2-3%. Given the current situation, the regulator is open to revising its bond buying program, as well as potentially cancelling it in February 2022. The end of QE stimulus and positive economic trends push the Australian dollar up.

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