Forex News from InstaForex

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  1. #891
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    Forex News from InstaForex
    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Inflation release provoked a sharp growth in the US dollar



    The long-awaited report on consumer inflation in the United States provoked a rapid growth in the US dollar. The impressive macro data turned out to be great support of the US dollar, which took advantage of the situation.

    On Wednesday evening, it became known that US inflation accelerated to a maximum in 31 years. According to preliminary forecasts, the growth of annual inflation in the country was expected by 5.8%, and in October, by 0.6%. However, US consumer prices came as a surprise: they soared up to 6.2% in annual terms, and by 0.9% in October. As a result, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States showed a record growth compared to the same period in 2020.

    Analysts drew attention to a significant increase in the base CPI (by 4.6%), which does not include the cost of food and energy. In September, this indicator was 4%. Experts expected the overall CPI to grow by 5.9%, and the base CPI by 4.3%. However, both indicators showed a sharp increase. Economists emphasize that this is the most significant annual rise in inflation for 31 years.

    It can be recalled that the target inflation rate set by the Fed does not exceed 2%. however, the current inflation is far from it. This raises the concerns of investors, who are concerned not only about the rate hike in 2022, but also about the specific timing and scale of this increase.

    The US currency has benefited from the current situation. It has risen rapidly on the inflationary wave and is now trying to maintain its position. Experts believe that the main reason for the strengthening of the USD is the increase in market rates. The chain of events here is as follows: shocking inflation reports provoked an increase in the yield of treasuries and contributed to the further expansion of spreads between US and German government bonds. An additional factor in this issue was the recent statements by the ECB about the inexpediency of raising rates. The divergence of the rhetoric of the ECB and the Fed led to the expansion of government bond spreads, providing significant support to the US dollar.

    Meanwhile, the Euro currency has lost ground unlike the American one. And although it is trying to catch up, it will be difficult for it to surpass its rival. On Thursday morning, the EUR/USD pair traded at the level of 1.1477, leaving the previous range of 1.1500-1.1550.

    According to analysts, the problems associated with the acceleration of inflation in the United States are shaking the national economy and the US dollar. The situation is heating up, as the economic difficulties provoked by the COVID-19 wave, especially the delta variant, remain in force. Experts pay attention to long-term problems with the supply of goods. The pandemic has turned global labor markets upside down, causing a total shortage of workers. This had a negative impact on production processes and the slowdown in global transportation. Supporting payments in the form of trillions of dollars received from the government stimulated demand for goods. This has led to an overload of supply chains and provoked additional problems in the global economy.

    Despite the Fed's assurances about the "temporary nature of inflation," the situation is getting worse, and the market is less and less believing what has been said. At the same time, the prerequisites for further growth of the US dollar remain. The specified currency is supported by the reduction of the asset purchase program launched by the Federal Reserve. Experts said that this is the first step towards raising rates.

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    US stock indices finished trading with multidirectional dynamics

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158.71 points (0.44%) to 35921.23 points. Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 2.56 points (0.06%), that is, to 4649.27 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 81.58 points (0.52%) and amounted to 15704.28 points. Tesla Inc. Stock Quote decreased by 0.4%.

    Tesla CEO Elon Musk this week sold shares in the company for a total of about $ 5 billion. On Monday, he exercised options to buy more than 2 million Tesla shares, which he received as compensation, for a total of $ 2.5 billion. options amounted to about $ 13.4 million.

    Lordstown Motors Corp. rose 23.2% after rising more than 20% in additional trading on Wednesday. The electric car maker has struck a deal to sell its plant to Foxconn for $ 230 million.

    Twitter Inc. Papers decreased by 0.7%. The company is creating a team that will develop a strategy for the future use of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general within the social network.

    Walt Disney Co. decreased by 7.1%. The world's largest entertainment and media company posted weaker-than-expected earnings and revenues in its fiscal fourth quarter and saw a significant slowdown in subscriber growth for its Disney + streaming service.

    Beyond Meat shares fell 13.3%. The American manufacturer of plant-based meat substitutes increased its net loss 2.8 times, while its revenue was worse than forecast.

    Yesterday, traders' attention was focused on the statistics published the day before, which indicated a significant acceleration of inflation in the US last month.

    According to the Department of Labor, consumer prices in the United States in October rose by 6.2% compared with the same month last year - the highest rate in almost 31 years (since November 1990). A month earlier, inflation in the US was 5.4%, and experts expected it to accelerate in October to 5.8%.

    The jump in energy prices in the United States last month amounted to 30% in annual terms, gasoline rose in price by 49.6%. The rate of growth in the cost of food, which amounted to 5.3%, was the highest since January 2009.

    According to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, inflation remains steadily high, surprising many who expected prices to return to normal more quickly. He also added that it is impossible to close the $ 20 trillion economy and not feel obstacles in the process of opening it, but we hope that supply chain problems will be resolved in the coming months, and inflation will stabilize.

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    US stock indices finished trading with multidirectional dynamics



    The European currency, finding itself behind the American one, seeks to increase its potential. However, these attempts have been so far unsuccessful. Nevertheless, experts believe that the situation.

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    EUR/USD: US dollar is rising, but the euro is not



    It is increasingly difficult for the Euro currency to keep its position, pretending that its decline is an annoying misunderstanding. In the EUR/USD pair, the euro has to act at the limit of its capabilities in order not to collapse.

    Analysts believe that the catalyst for the euro's collapse was the "dovish" statements of ECB President Christine Lagarde. Representatives of the European regulator still consider it inappropriate to raise the rate and tighten the monetary policy. At the same time, the ECB, along with the Fed, significantly reduced the volume of the asset repurchase program. However, the similarity with the strategies of the leading central banks ended there. With regard to the rate hike, the European regulator disagrees with the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. The ECB hed is confident that the tightening of the monetary policy will harm the European economy.

    The response to Lagarde's stubbornness was a sharp plunge of the euro, which has lost its position, trying to consolidate at current levels. Meanwhile, the US currency continues to test the highs. According to experts, the US dollar received a new impetus after another statement by C. Lagarde regarding the "temporary" nature of inflation. The ECB believes that it will return to the target 2% in the near future.

    It is possible that the European regulator repeats the mistake of the American one. Earlier, the Fed claimed that high inflation in the US is a temporary phenomenon, and now the ECB is "persuading" itself and the markets in a similar way. Experts consider this a dangerous misconception, for which they will have to pay with holes in the economy. Inflation is considered the main way to normalize the MP, and statements by central banks about its temporary nature increase price pressure.

    In view of the euro's weakening, the US dollar felt a surge of strength and became the leader once again. The US currency was helped by inspiring data on US retail sales. According to reports, this indicator increased in October much faster than experts expected. In the medium term, this will force the Fed to accelerate the reduction of the asset purchase program due to persistently high inflation.

    Analysts are concerned about the long-term downward trend of the EUR/USD pair, recorded since the summer of 2021. Currently, the pair has broken through the 200-week moving average and is headed lower. This is extremely negative for the European currency, which is now more vulnerable to inflation than the American one. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the level of 1.1301, hoping to win back a series of falls, but without much success.

    Experts consider geopolitics to be another reason for the weakness of the euro, in particular the problems of the UK related to Brexit and Northern Ireland. Moreover, the expectation of the final estimate of annual inflation in the eurozone also exerts additional pressure on the euro. According to preliminary forecasts, consumer price growth increased to 4.1% in October. This is the maximum price turn in the last 13 years.

    Analysts believe that the euro has currently no growth impulse. If the ECB does not change the current monetary strategy, the indicated currency will remain in the outsiders and test the bottom. At the same time, inflation fears contribute to the growth of the yield of treasuries, providing significant support for the US currency. In such a situation, the euro has a very low chance of recovery. However, possible changes in the ECB's policy will give a head start to the EUR. If the regulator considers the possibility of raising rates in 2022, the situation will change in favor of the euro.

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    Demand for all types of metals dramatically exceeds supply



    The world's six most significant industrial metals are demonstrating supply shortages for the first time in more than a decade as logistical shocks and high demand cause anxiety among buyers.

    Spot prices for base metals (from aluminum to zinc) on the London Metal Exchange are rapidly exceeding futures, a condition known as backwardation that has occurred for the first time since 2007. Buyers are paying a premium for access to metal amid a slump in inventory exchanges, delays in the supply chain, production disruptions and rising demand for industrial goods from construction to consumer electronics.

    As for copper and tin, the magnitude of the reversal development reached record highs in recent months, provoking panic among industrial consumers, who have faced escalating supply problems since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

    Signs of tight physical supply in the metals market also act as a counterbalance to growing nervousness about the broader macroeconomic outlook for major industrialized countries and especially China, the largest consumer of commodities. Spreads have reduced considerably over the past month, regarding aluminum, despite prices having fallen from multi-year highs.

    Oliver Nugent, a base metals analyst at Citigroup Inc. said that taking into account diverse use and supply dynamics of individual metals, the unusual synchronized tightness of the six major LME contracts was a sign of the logistical shocks and demand growth widely distribution since the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Nugent noted that this aspect was obvious. He said that consumers mostly faced logistic problems. Nugent highlighted that this fact indicated very robust demand.

    Evidently, complete tightness may not last long. Backwardation in copper and lead markets is disappearing, even as aluminum and nickel spreads reduce. Nugent stated that one of the consequences of supply chain disorder was that price spreads on other global exchanges could reduce further, even as the LME market softened.

    As for copper, for example, there is a growing backwardation of contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, despite LME spreads retreating from the record highs observed during last month's unprecedented supply contraction.

    Copper futures fell 0.9% to $9,472 a tonne at 11:57 a.m. in London, with metal shipments to LME warehouses in the United States helping to partially dispel supply fears after the cuts.

    Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $2,594.50 a tonne on Wednesday, compared to a high above $3,200 last month.

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    JAPAN OVERALL INFLATION RISES 0.1% ON YEAR IN OCTOBER



    Overall consumer prices in Japan were up 0.1 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday.

    That was in line with expectations and down from 0.2 percent in September.

    Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, also rose an annual 0.1 percent - unchanged and matching forecasts.

    Individually, prices were up for food, housing, fuel, furniture, education and recreation; prices were down for clothing, medical care and communications.

    On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall inflation slipped 0.3 percent and core CPI dipped 0.1 percent.

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    HONG KONG INFLATION DATA DUE ON MONDAY



    Hong Kong will on Monday release October figures for consumer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

    In September, the annual inflation rate was 1.4 percent.

    Taiwan will provide October numbers for export orders and unemployment. In September, export orders surged 25.7 percent on year, while the jobless rate was 3.92 percent.

    China will release the prime rates for one-year and five-year loans; previously, they were 3.85 percent and 4.65 percent, respectively.

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    SOUTH KOREA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IMPROVES TIO 107.6 - BOK



    Consumer confidence in South Korea picked up steam in November, the latest survey from the Bank of Korea showed on Tuesday with a sentiment index score of 107.6 - up from 106.8 in October.

    Consumer sentiment regarding current living standards was unchanged at 92, while the outlook was one point lower than in the previous month at 97.

    Consumer sentiment related to future household income was unchanged at 101, and the outlook was three points higher at 115.

    Consumer sentiment concerning current domestic economic conditions was one point higher than in the previous month at 81, and the outlook was unchanged at 96.

    The expected inflation rate for the following year was 2.7 percent.

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    EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



    Business sentiment survey results from Germany and France are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

    At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office Insee publishes business sentiment survey results. The business confidence index is expected to drop to 106 in November from 107 in October.

    At 3.00 am ET, business sentiment data is due from the Czech Republic.

    At 4.00 am ET, Germany's ifo Institute is scheduled to issue business sentiment data. The confidence index is seen at 96.6 in November versus 97.7 in October.

    At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Industrial Trends survey results. The order book balance is expected to improve to 13 in November from 9 in the previous month.

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY REVISED GDP, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



    Revised quarterly national accounts and consumer sentiment survey results are due from Germany on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

    At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's GDP data for the third quarter. According to initial estimate, the economy had expanded 1.8 percent sequentially, after rising 1.9 percent in the second quarter.

    In the meantime, the market research group Gfk is slated to issue Germany's consumer confidence survey results. The forward-looking sentiment index is seen at -0.5 in December versus +0.9 in November.

    At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE is slated to issue producer prices data for October. Prices had advanced 23.6 percent annually in September.

    Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank announces its monetary policy decision. In the meantime, Statistics Sweden issues producer prices and household lending data. At 4.00 am ET, Poland's unemployment data is due. The jobless rate is seen at 5.5 percent in October versus 5.6 percent in September.

    At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Distributive Trades survey results.

    At 7.30 am ET, the European Central Bank publishes the account of the monetary policy meeting of the governing council held on October 27 and 28.

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