Forex News from InstaForex

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  1. #1121
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    Forex News from InstaForex
    US stock market closed mixed, Dow Jones down 0.43%



    At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.43% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.21%, and the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.25%.

    The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components today was Salesforce Inc, which gained 2.57 points or 1.76% to close at 148.89. Quotes Dow Inc rose by 0.40 points (0.92%), ending trading at 43.79. Home Depot Inc rose 0.79% or 2.11 points to close at 268.69.

    The losers were shares of McDonald's Corporation, which lost 7.06 points or 2.90% to end the session at 236.70. Procter & Gamble Company was up 2.75% or 3.73 points to close at 131.98 while Coca-Cola Co was down 2.57% or 1.49 points to close at mark 56.38.

    Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 6.10% to hit 95.87, Mosaic Company, which gained 4.15% to close at 48.44, and also shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, which rose 3.88% to end the session at 45.75.

    The biggest losers were Digital Realty Trust Inc, which shed 3.98% to close at 97.73. Shares of Organon & Co shed 3.54% to end the session at 24.26. Quotes of Global Payments Inc decreased in price by 3.39% to 108.02.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 106.25% to hit 7.26, Scienjoy Holding Corp, which gained 47.90% to close at 2.47, and also shares of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 40.18% to close the session at 1.25.

    The drop leaders were NLS Pharmaceutics AG, which shed 25.07% to close at 0.72. Shares of Midatech Pharma PLC ADR lost 20.77% and ended the session at 2.06. Quotes of Fednat Holding Co decreased in price by 18.22% to 0.18.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1634) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1527), while quotes of 136 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2048 companies rose in price, 1751 fell, and 295 remained at the level of the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 1.05% to 32.60, hitting a new 3-month high.

    Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.18%, or 2.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 2.29%, or 1.76, to $78.47 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 2.35%, or 1.95, to $84.81 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.14% to 0.96, while USD/JPY rose 0.06% to hit 144.84.

    Futures on the USD index rose by 0.09% to 114.12.

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    USD/JPY: When will Groundhog Day end?



    The USD/JPY pair continues to tread in the 144-145 range, in which it has been stuck since the beginning of the week. Consolidation is pretty boring for both bulls and bears, but there is no trigger on the horizon yet.

    This year, the Japanese currency has fallen in price relative to its American counterpart by more than 20%. The reason for the weakening of the yen was the strong monetary divergence between the US and Japan.

    Last week, the dollar-yen pair set another high-profile record. After the Federal Reserve raised rates again, and the Bank of Japan left the indicator unchanged, the quote jumped to a new 24-year high at 145.90.

    The sharp fall of the yen forced the Japanese government to intervene in support of its national currency for the first time since 1998. As a result of the intervention, the USD/JPY pair went into a steep peak. However, the asset did not stay as a loser for long. It only took a couple of days for it to get back on track leading to the main goal for today level 145.



    Since the beginning of this week, the dollar-yen pair has already come close to the cherished mark several times, but each time it rolled back.

    According to analysts, the main deterrent for dollar bulls at the moment is the risk of repeated currency intervention.

    Given the huge number of warnings from the Japanese authorities, traders still prefer not to get into trouble. However, the situation may change dramatically if a particularly powerful trump card in favor of the dollar appears on the market.

    You may ask: isn't it here now? Indeed, the dollar received strong support from the Fed last week. The US central bank not only raised rates, but also made it clear that it intends to tighten its monetary policy in the future.

    This week, American politicians have further intensified hawkish rhetoric, which contributed to the explosive growth of the dollar. The greenback has reached a new 20-year high, showing impressive dynamics in almost all directions, but not paired with the yen.

    The psychologically important 145 barrier still remains impregnable for the USD/JPY asset. This suggests that the market has already taken into account the further growth of discrepancies in the monetary policy of the Fed and the BOJ.

    Now traders need specifics: how big the gap in US and Japanese interest rates can become.

    If in the near future American officials again talk about raising the indicator by 100 bps, perhaps this will be the very impetus for the dollar, which will move it from the dead point.

    Of course, the Japanese Ministry of Finance is aware of the current vulnerability of the yen. Probably, the authorities will continue to intimidate traders with interventions to deter speculators, Rabobank analysts warn. Nevertheless, we are still guided in our 3-month forecast for the USD/JPY pair to the level of 147.

    As for the short-term dynamics of the asset, do not expect miracles in the coming days. Most experts believe that the dollar-yen pair will remain in the zone of broad consolidation.

    The technical picture for the USD/JPY

    200-day exponential moving average at 141.20 scales higher. This indicates that the long-term trend is still stable.

    At the same time, the relative strength index (RSI) fluctuates in the range of 40.00-60.00, which indicates that the movement continues within the current range.

    For a decisive bearish reversal, the asset needs to fall below the previous week's low at around 140.35.

    Dollar bulls may push the pair higher after overcoming the previous week's high at 145.90.

    This may lead the quote to the August 1998 high at 147.67. And its breakthrough will send the dollar even further upward to psychological resistance in the area of 150.00.

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    US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.54%



    At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.54%, the S&P 500 fell 2.11% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.84%.

    The leading gainers among the components of the Dow Jones index today were The Travelers Companies Inc, which gained 1.76 points (1.15%) to close at 154.68. Visa Inc Class A rose 0.88 points or 0.49% to close at 180.06. Merck & Company Inc shed 0.14 points or 0.16% to close at 86.64.

    The losers were Boeing Co shares, which lost 8.11 points or 6.08% to end the session at 125.33. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 4.97% or 1.65 points to close at 31.55 while Apple Inc was down 4.91% or 7.36 points to end at 142. .48.

    Among the S&P 500 index components gainers in today's trading were Everest Re Group Ltd, which rose 3.07% to 267.41, STERIS plc, which gained 2.76% to close at 167.29, and also shares of W. R. Berkley Corp, which rose 2.73% to end the session at 65.18.

    The biggest losers were CarMax Inc, which shed 24.60% to close at 65.16. Shares of SolarEdge Technologies Inc lost 8.27% to end the session at 235.56. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 7.91% to 43.64.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Senti Biosciences Inc, which rose 50.71% to hit 2.11, Avalon Globocare Corp, which gained 25.85% to close at 0.70, and also shares of TuanChe ADR, which rose 25.31% to close the session at 3.07.

    The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 54.82% to close at 33.95. Shares of Lion Group Holding Ltd lost 49.25% and ended the session at 1.01. Quotes of Twin Vee Powercats Co decreased in price by 29.01% to 2.52.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2631) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (530), while quotes of 112 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,842 stocks fell, 956 rose, and 224 remained at the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.50% to 31.84.

    Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.07%, or 1.20, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 0.55%, or 0.45, to $81.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 0.55%, or 0.48, to $87.57 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.70% to hit 0.98, while USD/JPY edged up 0.21% to hit 144.46.

    Futures on the USD index fell 0.36% to 112.11.

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    US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.71%



    At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.71% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 1.51% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.51%.

    Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated were among the leaders of gains among the components of the Dow Jones index today, which lost 3.79 points (0.74%) to close at 505.04. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc fell 0.15 points or 0.48% to close at 31.40. Dow Inc shed 0.23 points or 0.52% to close at 43.93.

    The drop leaders were Nike Inc shares, which lost 12.21 points or 12.81% to end the session at 83.12. Boeing Co was up 3.39% or 4.25 points to close at 121.08, while Walt Disney Company was down 3.20% or 3.12 points to close at 94. 33.

    Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Charles River Laboratories, which rose 3.57% to hit 196.80, Weyerhaeuser Company, which gained 2.92% to close at 28.56, and shares of Twitter Inc, which rose 2.74% to end the session at 43.91.

    The losers were shares of Carnival Corporation, which fell 23.31% to close at 7.03. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd lost 18.11% to end the session at 11.35. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 13.14% to 37.91.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were FingerMotion Inc, which rose 82.16% to hit 3.37, SAITECH Global Corp, which gained 43.36% to close at 3.24, and shares of Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 39.03% to end the session at 10.08.

    The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 39.91% to close at 20.40. Shares of Aterian Inc lost 37.06% and ended the session at 1.24. Quotes of Edesa Biotech Inc decreased in price by 34.66% to 0.92.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,758) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,354), while quotations of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,139 companies fell in price, 1,583 rose, and 228 remained at the level of the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.69% to 31.62.

    Gold futures for December delivery added 0.11%, or 1.80, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 1.87%, or 1.52, to $79.71 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.13%, or 1.86, to $85.32 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.08% to 0.98, while USD/JPY advanced 0.23% to hit 144.77.

    Futures on the USD index fell 0.09% to 112.10.

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    USD/JPY: May the force be with you!



    Yesterday, bulls again pushed the USD/JPY pair above the key 145 mark, but failed to gain a foothold there. The yen turned out to be a tough nut to crack, which is still too tough for the dollar bulls.

    For a penny of ammunition, for a fragment of ambition

    Trampling the USD/JPY pair, which lasted all last week, unexpectedly gave way to a decisive upward movement on Monday morning.

    Lacking a new fundamental catalyst, the dollar miraculously managed to hit the 145 peak it tested in September again.

    Recall that the last time this barrier was captured turned out to be a disaster for the greenback. In response to the strong fall of the yen, the Japanese authorities carried out the first intervention in 24 years to support their national currency.

    Having touched a potentially dangerous line, this time the greenback was more cautious and without intervening in the market, it bounced back as if scalded.

    This served as yet another confirmation that USD/JPY bulls are still wary of intervention and do not want to draw fire on themselves.

    Of course, the dollar still has a strong amulet in its pocket that will almost save it from a steep plunge. We are talking about the growing monetary divergence between the US and Japan.

    But the market is well aware that this is no longer enough for the USD to rise. With the Japanese government continuing to threaten to intervene again, the dollar needs a big boost in the form of strong economic data.

    A strong US economy will definitely allow the Federal Reserve to satisfy all its hawkish ambitions, and weak macroeconomic statistics, on the contrary, will prevent this.

    Recall that at the September meeting, the US central bank raised interest rates by 75 bps and reaffirmed its willingness to raise the rate more aggressively if inflation continues to be high.

    Nevertheless, many analysts believe that the 75 bps step is the ceiling for the Fed. The US central bank is unlikely to decide on anything more, given the uneven economic data.

    This opinion was supported by the latest index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The ISM reported a reading of 50.9 in September, lower than its forecast of 52.2.

    After the release of pessimistic statistics, the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 14 basis points to 3.66%, and the dollar significantly fell.



    Flat may drag on

    Today's portion of US economic data is also unlikely to please the USD/JPY bulls. Tuesday's key report will be the release of the index of business activity in the services sector from ISM.

    Economists forecast a decline in September to 56 compared to the previous value of 56.9.

    The data on the index of new orders for the last month may also turn out to be weak. The indicator is expected to fall to 58.9 against 61.8 recorded in August.

    Preliminary estimates are putting significant pressure on the dollar-yen this morning as it struggles to break out of the consolidation phase to try again to break through the defenses at the psychologically important 145 mark.

    At the time of release, the quote jumped almost 0.2% and traded around 144.80.

    The trigger for the asset was a dovish statement by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The day before, the official said that the government will continue to stimulate the economy, while trying to make the most of the weak yen.

    The geopolitical factor also provided significant support to the dollar - the escalation of tension between Japan and North Korea.

    At the beginning of the day, it was reported that Pyongyang, which had already tested an unprecedented number of missiles this year, had fired another short-range ballistic projectile.

    This time, the target of the North Korean military appeared to be the Hokkaido area, which is considered the second largest Japanese island.

    In response to the missile launch over Japan, the Hokkaido authorities issued an air raid alert and urged the people of the region to take shelter.

    Meanwhile, Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada has signaled that Tokyo is considering all options for strengthening its defenses, including a counterattack.

    If the conflict between the countries continues to escalate, the Japanese yen may weaken even more. In this case, bulls on the USD/JPY pair will finally have a real chance to settle above the 145 level.

    However, we recommend that traders do not force things yet and be patient, especially since most forecasts for the USD/JPY pair point to further movement in the flat.

    Most likely, in the coming days, the dollar and the yen will continue to pull the price rope in the 144-145 range.

    Technical picture for the USD/JPY pair

    The short-term trend is neutral, but has a tendency to the downside. As the quote fell below the 20-, 50- and 100-EMAs yesterday, this could spell further losses.

    If the bears manage to take the asset below 144, this will open a fast route to 143.90.

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    European stocks decline after previous sharp rise

    On Wednesday, key European stock indices declined dramatically amid the release of fresh statistics on the EU countries. At the same time, stock indexes have been actively rising over the last three sessions and closed Tuesday's trading with a record six-month gain.



    By the time of writing, the STOXX Europe 600 index of Europe's leading companies had dropped by 0.9% to 399.40 points.

    Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 fell by 0.73%, the German DAX lost 0.79%, and the British FTSE 100 declined by 1.15%.

    Top gainers and losers

    The stock price of Britain's largest grocery retailer Tesco Plc rose 2.5% despite a 2.8-fold decline in pre-tax profits in the January-June 2023 fiscal year. In addition, the day before, the company worsened its full-year outlook due to changing consumer behavior and continued uncertainty in the trading environment amid record inflation.

    The Finnish airline Finnair rose 1.2%. Earlier the company reported that it carried 890,500 passengers last month, 1.1% more than in August. At the same time, in September 2021, the number of Finnair passengers was only 298.2 thousand.

    The market capitalization of the Danish manufacturer of audio systems and other electronics Bang & Olufsen A/S fell by 2.6%. The company's revenue fell by 8.2% in the first fiscal quarter.

    Share price of the Swedish Avanza Bank Holding dropped by 6.4%.

    The stock price of French auto parts supplier Faurecia SE dropped 6.2%.

    Swedish cloud technology provider Sinch AB soared by 9.7%.

    Meanwhile, the market capitalization of the Swedish airline SAS AB is steadily increasing. Earlier, the company's management announced about the changes in the contracts with 10 lessors providing 36 aircraft. According to the preliminary expectations of the SAS AB management, it will help to save about $700 million a year by 2026. Market sentiment

    The focus of European investors on Wednesday is fresh statistics on the region. So, according to the final estimation of experts, in September the business activity composite index (PMI) in industry and services of 19 Eurozone countries was 48.1 points down from 48.9 points in August. Meanwhile, earlier the market forecasted the decrease of the index down to 48.2 points only.

    The final September PMI was the lowest in two years and eight months. Traditionally the value of business activity composite index in industry and services above 50 points indicates an increase in economic activity, below its decline.

    In addition, on Wednesday morning S&P Global reported that the euro region's services purchasing managers' index was 48.8 points for the month, compared to August's 49.8 points. The September total was the lowest since February 2021. At the same time analysts predicted a less noticeable decrease in the index - down to 48.9 points. By the way, the fall of purchasing managers indicator in the services sector below 50 points traditionally indicates a decrease in business activity in the sector.

    Meanwhile, in Italy PMI in the service sector fell to 48.8 points in September from 50.5 points in August, in Germany - to 45 points from 47.7 points. Meanwhile, in France the index rose last month to 52.9 points from August's 51.2 points.

    Germany's foreign trade surplus decreased to 1.2 billion euros in August from 13.7 billion euros registered a year before and 3.4 billion euros in July. This tangible reduction in the country's trade surplus was a striking signal of a slowdown in external demand for goods produced by Germany's key manufacturing sector.

    The volume of German exports in September, adjusted for calendar and seasonal factors, rose by 1.6% (EUR 133.1 billion) compared to August.

    Meanwhile, imports rose 3.4% to 131.9 billion. Meanwhile, industrial production in France soared 2.4% in August compared to July's drop of 1.6%. At the same time the August figure was the highest since January 2021.

    Previous trading results

    On Tuesday, European stock indices closed in the green zone, gaining within 4%.

    Thus, the composite indicator of Europe's leading companies STOXX Europe 600 rose by 2.01% to 403.03 points. By the way, the index exceeded 400 points for the first time since September 22.

    The French CAC 40 advanced by 4.24%, the German DAX gained 3.78% and the British FTSE 100 added 2.57%.

    The value of shares of the German automobile concern Volkswagen rose by more than 1%. The day before, the head of Volkswagen Oliver Blumet told local media that he plans to lead all subsidiaries to an IPO after the success of the initial public offering of Porsche.

    Quotes of the Swiss banking group Credit Suisse Group AG soared by 8.9%, recovering from a 9% plunge the day before. The key pressure factor for the shares of Credit Suisse on Monday was the announcement of the bank's management that it is considering cutting 1,000 jobs over the next few years as part of a new anti-crisis program. The business reorganization plan will be unveiled at the end of October.

    The market capitalization of the British insurance company Legal & General Group rose by 5.9% on the report of further support for pension fund clients affected by the sharp rise in interest rates.

    The share price of British bakery chain Greggs PLC strengthened 10% on total sales, which rose 14.6% year-over-year during the past quarter.

    Swiss vacuum equipment maker VAT Group AG gained 6.9 percent.

    Quotes of the French IT company Atos SE rose by 6.8%.

    The market capitalization of Made.Com, an online furniture retailer, soared more than 20% on news that its management had begun negotiations with "a number of interested parties" about selling the company.

    The share price of Swiss chemical group Sika AG soared 6% on the back of an improvement in its revenue forecast for 2022.

    The value of securities of Spanish banks Santander, BBVA and Caixabank rose by more than 7%.

    Quotes of the British marketing company S4 Capital increased by 10%.

    Market capitalization of Norwegian fish company SalMar ASA dropped by 10.3%.

    The main factor of growth for the European stock exchanges on Tuesday was a strong outcome of the last trading session on the U.S. stock market. Thus, The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.7% in the first trading session of the fourth quarter, reaching a February high. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index gained 2.59% and the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.27%.

    In addition, Asian indices were up significantly the day before, as the Hong Kong stock exchange opened after a holiday.

    Experts attribute the surge of optimism in the European stock markets the previous day to the weakening of investors' concerns over the further aggressive monetary policy of world central banks. The high recession risks for the global economy, analysts say, may force the regulators to follow a softer course.

    According to the statistics published on Monday, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the United States in September fell to its lowest level of May 2020. This state of affairs was perceived by investors as confirmation that monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve is beginning to suppress economic activity.

    Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing index fell to 50.9 points last month from August's 52.8 points, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). At the same time, the market on average expected the index to fall only to 52.2 points.

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    US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.14%



    At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.14%, the S&P 500 fell 0.20%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.25%.

    The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Nike Inc, which gained 2.46 points or 2.78% to close at 91.10. Visa Inc Class A rose 2.02 points or 1.09% to close at 187.67. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 3.90 points or 0.75% to close at 527.07.

    The biggest losers were Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which shed 5.87 points or 1.86% to end the session at 309.00. Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 1.38 points (1.23%) to close at 110.39, while Dow Inc shed 0.56 points (1.20%) to close at 46 .06.

    Leading gainers among the S&P 500 components in today's trading were Illumina Inc, which rose 6.56% to hit 218.52, Schlumberger NV, which gained 6.26% to close at 41.57, and Gap Inc, which rose 5.19% to end the session at 9.72.

    The biggest losers were Lumen Technologies Inc, which shed 9.45% to close at 7.28. Shares of Enphase Energy Inc shed 9.25% to end the session at 261.60. Quotes Vornado Realty Trust fell in price by 6.38% to 22.47.

    The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Chardan Nextech Acquisition 2 Corp, which rose 102.63% to hit 21.54, Nauticus Robotics Inc, which gained 96.27% to close at 6.32. , as well as shares of Pineapple Holdings Inc, which rose 93.01% to end the session at 2.76.

    The biggest losers were Bit Brother Ltd, which shed 42.97% to close at 0.18. Shares of Avenue Therapeutics Inc shed 41.59% to end the session at 8.47. Quotes Scienjoy Holding Corp fell in price by 36.99% to 1.38.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2102) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (991), while quotes of 107 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,313 companies fell in price, 1,443 rose, and 198 remained at the level of the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 1.79% to 28.55.

    Gold futures for December delivery shed 0.28%, or 4.90, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 1.76%, or 1.52, to $88.04 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 2.07%, or 1.90, to $93.70 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.96% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY edged up 0.35% to hit 144.60.

    Futures on the USD index rose 1.00% to 111.08.

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    co Tin nóng đây
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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    EUR/USD. Bearish cocktail for the euro



    The contradictory dynamics of the euro is somewhat alarming. Despite the unfavorable picture of the eurozone with pessimistic data and forecasts, where the cherry on the cake is the energy crisis, the single currency looks quite stable. Should we wait for lows at the level of 1.9000?

    The German authorities reported unpleasant economic forecasts. A recession is expected in the country next year. The GDP of the European economy, according to the preliminary autumn estimates of the government, will decrease by 0.4% in 2023.
    In addition, the growth forecast for 2022 was lowered to 1.4%. Inflation will be 7.9% this year and will reach 8% in 2023. The figures are not final, adjustments may be made next week, the government said in a statement.

    Retail sales in the eurozone sank by 0.3% on a monthly basis in August against the expected 0.4%. On an annualized basis, the indicator fell by 2%, which is higher than the forecast value of 1.7%.



    Both macroeconomic factors did not cause an immediate reaction in the euro, which continued to trade with small losses on Thursday. The decline of the EUR/USD pair intensified only in the US session amid a growing dollar index.

    What is the reason for the paradoxical stability of the euro?

    At the beginning of the week, there was a clear rebound from the lows as a result of the emerging risk appetite. Bulls on EUR/USD aiming to break through the parity upward. Everything seems to be logical, but... At this point, other currencies such as the Canadian, Australian, New Zealand dollars and even the Swiss franc could not recoup, that is, they almost did not rise against the dollar.
    It turns out this way: when the dollar rose, the euro fell slower than other currencies, and when the dollar adjusted down, the euro grew most vigorously. Although the same Canadian dollar had a good factor for recovery in the form of a sharp rise in oil prices.

    The behavior is strange, however, it does not change the overall picture for the euro. From the point of view of the trade balance, budget stability, the level of public debt to GDP and taking into account the high risks of recession, the euro still looks weaker than other currencies of developed countries.
    If, as a result, the recovery in the markets resumes, the euro should not be ahead of everyone, but behind. The future of the bloc does not bode well for the single currency a recession and a debt crisis are on the horizon.
    Yes, the euro has recently received support due to harsh statements by representatives of the European Central Bank, but this phenomenon is temporary. It is not a fact that the central bank will decide to raise the rate by 75 bps at the October meeting. Maybe it will cost a step of only 50 bps.

    If inflation does push the ECB to tighten policy more aggressively, then the question will arise about government debt yields. The national debt of Italy, as you know, is a time bomb that will explode according to the Greek scenario. Last week, yields on Italy's 10-year debt tested the peaks since 2013 at 4.8%. Then they rolled back, then went up again. The moral is that as a result it will be possible to see at least 5%.

    If we turn to history, the euro's fall amid the debt crises has always been significant. Economists, analysts and strategists each time started talking about the possible collapse of the euro bloc. This was the case during the Greek crisis, when the euro collapsed from the area of 1.4000 to 1.2000.

    Now everything starts in a new circle of the current Italian scenario. It is possible that once again they will begin to "bury" the eurozone, especially since Italian problems are much more dangerous than Greek or Spanish ones and occur at such a difficult time for the world as a whole.

    Forecast

    The EUR/USD pair is highly likely to test the 0.9500 level, and even the growth of risk appetite is not an ally here.

    The eurozone is on the verge of recession, the deepest recession is expected in the winter months, so the EUR/USD pair may well aim for the level of 0.9000.

    "Three-quarters of negative growth and the still hawkish position of the Fed is a strong bearish cocktail for EUR/USD," according to ING economists, who also adhere to the scenario of a drop in the quote in the area of 0.9000.

    "The increase in gas prices this winter will put pressure on the trade balance of the eurozone. This could lead to the euro falling to the lower limit of the 0.9000-0.9500 range over the next three or six months," ING predicts.

    A potential reversal is possible in 2023 if the Federal Reserve starts to stick to dovish rhetoric, and the eurozone comes out of recession.

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