Forex News from InstaForex

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  1. #1081
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    Forex News from InstaForex
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    American stock indices change weakly and in different directions



    As it became known from the report of the US Department of Commerce, the number of houses, the construction of which was started in the country in July, decreased by 9.6% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.446 million in annual terms. The figure was the lowest since February last year. According to the revised data, in June the number of new buildings amounted to 1.599 million, and not 1.559 million, as previously reported. Experts predicted a decline to 1.54 million from the previously announced level in June.

    US industrial output rose 0.6% month-on-month in July, doubling the 0.3% rise expected by analysts. According to the revised data, industrial production did not change in June, while a decrease of 0.2% was previously reported.

    Production in the processing industry increased by 0.7% compared to June, while experts expected a more moderate growth of 0.2%. A month earlier, the indicator fell by 0.4%, and not by 0.5%, as previously reported. In addition, investors are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the report on retail sales in the US on Friday. Also this week, many leading US retailers publish quarterly reports.

    AJ Bell financial analyst Danny Hewson noted that many US investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude, hoping to get new information from the Fed's minutes and retailers' reports, on the basis of which it is possible to understand what exactly consumers are saving on during a period of high inflation.

    The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 16:47 GMT+3 increased by 0.05% - up to 33930.76 points.

    Standard & Poor's 500 has fallen 0.11% since the market opened to 4292.49 points.

    The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.35% to 13,081.46.

    Shares of Walmart Inc. jumped by 5.5%, being the leader of growth in the Dow Jones index. The largest US retailer posted a strong quarterly report and improved its full-year outlook. Walmart's adjusted earnings for the fiscal quarter ended July 31 were $1.77 per share, above analysts' forecast of $1.62 per share. Revenue increased by 8.4% and reached $152.86 billion, while experts on average predicted the figure at $150.99 billion.

    Quotes Home Depot Inc. increase by 1.4%. The US-leading home improvement chain posted record revenues and net income in the quarter, even though the number of purchases at its stores fell by 3%.

    Target and Lowe's will report on Wednesday, while department store chain Kohl's will report on Thursday.

    World Wrestling Entertainment's share price is up 3.2% after the wrestling tournament organizer increased net profit and revenue slightly more than market expectations in the second quarter of 2022.

    Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery shed 0.3% on rumors of new cost-cutting measures. In particular, the staff of the subsidiary streaming service HBO will be reduced by about 14%.

    Zoom Video Communications' capitalization fell 5.6% after Citi analysts downgraded the recommendation for the company's shares to "sell" from "neutral" levels.

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    Wall Street stocks closed lower



    The minutes also indicated that Fed officials saw no convincing evidence of easing inflationary pressures in July, suggesting inflation could take longer than expected to slow down.

    In an effort to curb inflation, the Fed has already raised its key interest rate by 225 basis points this year. After the release of the protocols, traders in futures linked to the Fed rate estimated its increase by 50 basis points as more likely.

    Before the release of protocols, the market was already trading with a significant decline. Growth indices were under pressure due to the weak results of Target's retail chain.

    As a result of trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 33980.32 points, the S&P 500 - 0.72% to 4274.04, and the Nasdaq Composite - 1.25% to 12938.12 points.

    Target Corp. stock quotes. decrease by 2.2%. The company, which owns the second-largest discount store chain in the US, posted a nearly 10-fold drop in net income in the second financial quarter due to forced markdowns that hurt its margins.

    Shares of TJX Cos. rise in price by 0.4%. The American chain of discount stores in the 2nd quarter of fiscal 2023 increased its net profit by 3%, but revenue fell short of expectations.

    Price of Lowe's Cos. grows by 2.1%. The company, which owns the second-largest home improvement store chain in the US, saw a 1% drop in net income in the second quarter of fiscal 2022, but the per-share figure was better than market expectations.

    Papers Krispy Kreme Inc. cheaper by 11.9%. The American chain of coffee shops, known for its donuts, cut its net loss in the 2nd fiscal quarter by 4.5 times, increasing revenue by 7.5%. Meanwhile, the company noted that consumers faced unique economic pressures in the past quarter and downgraded its forecasts for the current fiscal year.

    The share price of Endo International Plc increases by 0.8%. An international pharmaceutical company has filed for bankruptcy in a US court to deal with its debt load due to litigation related to the so-called "opioid case".

    Published by the US Department of Commerce, statistical data indicated that retail sales in the United States in July did not change in monthly terms.

    Analysts polled on average predicted an increase of 0.1%.

    Sales rose 0.8% in June, up from the 1% previously announced, according to revised data.

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    Yen - cover: the dollar broke the chain



    Yesterday, the greenback showed a parabolic growth against the yen. The USD rocket rise continues on Friday morning. Dollar aims to renew monthly peak against Japanese currency.

    Hawk fuel for USD

    The greenback showed convincing growth on all fronts on Thursday. Its index rose by 0.12% and reached the highest value for the month - a mark of 107.6.

    The Federal Reserve minutes, which were published on Wednesday, served as a powerful driver for the dollar.

    The minutes of the July meeting of the FOMC showed that at this stage the majority of the members of the US central bank are in favor of continuing the aggressive monetary course.

    The greenback received even greater impetus yesterday after an interview with the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly.

    The official told CNN reporters that it is still too early to declare a victory over inflation and it would be appropriate to raise the interest rate by 50 or even 75 bps in September.

    Recall that after the release of the minutes, futures markets took into account the fears of FOMC members about the impending recession and reduced the likelihood of raising rates by 75 bps next month up to 40%.

    However, Daly's comment stirred up the water again. For many, it has become obvious that we should not completely rule out the possibility of a third consecutive increase in rates by 75 bps.

    Despite the risk of a slowdown in economic growth and an easing of inflationary pressures in July, the Fed may once again deliver a hawkish surprise. Such a scenario is very fertile ground for the dollar.

    Increasing pressure on the JPY

    The discrepancy between the US Fed's aggressive stance and the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan has led to a serious drop in the yen this year.

    The JPY has fallen 15% against the dollar since January. This is the strongest decline of the Japanese currency against the USD since 2013.

    Despite the recent recovery, the yen is still struggling to come off a 24-year low. And apparently, in the near future it will not shine.

    Strengthening hawkish sentiment on the Fed's future strategy pushed USD/JPY yesterday to a 3-week high of 136.38.



    This morning, the asset continues to move steadily upward to a monthly peak of 137, as additional pressure on the yen comes from the release of inflation statistics in Japan.

    As the report showed, inflation in the country continues to remain above the BOJ target, which is 2%. In July, the core consumer price index on an annualized basis jumped to 2.4% against the June value of 2.2%.

    This is the highest figure since the end of 2014. The inflation rate in Japan has risen for the past four months in a row.

    Despite the fact that price pressure continues to increase, this is unlikely to force the BOJ to change its rhetoric.

    Today, the Japanese central bank is the only one among the major central banks that still adheres to dovish tactics.

    While its peers are actively fighting inflation by raising interest rates, the BOJ keeps the figure at an ultra-low level of 0.1%.

    The head of the Japanese central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, has repeatedly stated that the current inflation is due to rising commodity prices, which indicates its temporary nature.

    In addition, inflation in Japan remains relatively low compared to other major countries. For this reason, Tokyo is in no hurry to raise interest rates so as not to harm its already fragile economy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Fighting inflation Japan is now helping government measures to limit price increases. Through this, and through planned wage increases, the authorities hope to generate robust consumer demand that should help the economy recover.

    Nevertheless, experts believe that wage growth, no matter how strong it may be, will not be able to catch up with inflation, which risks accelerating to 3% by the end of the year.

    Japan is forecast to see further depreciation of the yen, an increase in the cost of living and a significant reduction in consumer spending until the BOJ begins to take really effective measures to combat inflation.

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    US stock markets opened 0.5-1% lower



    In the absence of important statistics, investors are looking at quarterly reports and other corporate news, as well as statements from Fed officials.

    The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 16:54 GMT+3 fell by 0.71% - to 33758.39 points. Among the leaders of the decline in the index are the shares of Boeing Co., Walt Disney Co. and Salesforce Inc., depreciating more than 2%. Merck & Co. papers are the growth leader, rising in price by 1%.

    Standard & Poor's 500 has fallen 1.03% since the market opened to 4239.44 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.58% to 12,760.13 points.

    Shares of Deere & Co. fell by 2.9% after the world's largest manufacturer of agricultural machinery and equipment reported a net profit growth in the 3rd financial quarter, weaker than market expectations and worsened its full-year forecast.

    Quotes from US sportswear and footwear retailer Foot Locker Inc. soared by 22%. The company published a strong statement for the past financial quarter and announced the resignation of the chief executive officer.

    The market value of General Motors Co. rises 2.1% on news that the company will resume paying quarterly dividends, suspended in April 2020 due to uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Bed Bath & Beyond plunged 42% after reports that prominent billionaire investor Ryan Cohen sold his entire stake in the retailer for a profit of more than $58 million.

    Capitalization of Home Depot Inc. declined 0.6% despite the fact that the board of directors of the home improvement chain has approved the launch of a $15 billion share buyback program.

    The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Ballard, said on Thursday that he could support another rate hike by 75 basis points at the September meeting of the US Central Bank. At the same time, he added that, in his opinion, the economy has not yet overcome the peak of inflation.

    Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed colleague Mary Daly said that to curb inflation, the rate needs to be raised to just above 3% by the end of the year, but opposed an aggressive tightening next year.

    The market is still waiting for a 50 basis points rate in September, however, there are growing fears that the rate will be raised by 75 basis points.

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    org Up lên cho bạn
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    US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.91%



    At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.91%, the S&P 500 fell 2.14%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.55%.

    Procter & Gamble Company was the leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, shedding 0.40 points (0.27%) to close at 149.33. Quotes Johnson & Johnson fell by 0.59 points (0.35%), ending trading at 167.59. Chevron Corp lost 0.79 points or 0.50% to close at 156.90.

    The losers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 1.54 points or 4.35% to end the session at 33.84. Salesforce.com Inc. shares rose 3.69% or 6.79 points to close at 176.98, while Walt Disney Company shed 3.50% or 4.20 points to close at 115.94.

    Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were The Mosaic Company, which rose 3.44% to hit 55.36, Albemarle Corp, which gained 2.12% to close at 275.75, and shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 2.07% to close the session at 105.64.

    The biggest losers were Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which shed 7.43% to close at 12.71. Shares of Aptiv PLC lost 7.28% to end the session at 96.22. Quotes of CarMax Inc decreased in price by 6.66% to 89.86.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Bright Minds Biosciences Inc, which rose 72.80% to 2.16, Anpac Bio Medical Science Co Ltd, which gained 66.01% to close at 0 .36, as well as Summit Therapeutics PLC, which rose 48.18% to close the session at 1.63.

    The biggest losers were Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc, which shed 39.78% to close at 3.86. Shares of Pharvaris BV lost 34.07% and ended the session at 12.14. Quotes of Golden Sun Education Group Ltd decreased in price by 29.18% to 36.01.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2581) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (554), while quotes of 112 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,905 stocks fell, 867 rose, and 206 remained at the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 15.53% to 23.80.

    Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.84%, or 14.75, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 0.06%, or 0.05, to $90.49 a barrel. Brent oil futures for October delivery fell 0.07%, or 0.07, to $96.65 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.90% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY was up 0.42% to hit 137.50.

    Futures on the USD index rose 0.72% to 108.88.

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    US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.47%



    At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.47%, the S&P 500 fell 0.22%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.03%.

    Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 5.09 points or 3.24% to close at 161.99. Quotes of Caterpillar Inc rose by 5.45 points (2.84%), closing the session at 197.21. Dow Inc rose 1.21 points or 2.22% to close at 55.62.

    The biggest losers were Procter & Gamble Company, which shed 2.88 points or 1.93% to end the session at 146.45. Home Depot Inc climbed 1.70% or 5.31 points to close at 306.90 while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shed 1.61% or 8.77 points to close at 535 .80.

    Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Halliburton Company, which rose 6.95% to hit 31.22, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, which gained 6.90% to close at 73.79, and shares of Schlumberger NV, which rose 6.61% to close the session at 39.36.

    The biggest losers were shares of Twitter Inc, which shed 7.32% to close at 39.86. Shares of Pool Corporation shed 3.72% to end the session at 360.63. Quotes Healthpeak Properties Inc fell in price by 3.16% to 26.93.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc., which rose 53.04% to 1.49, Windtree Therapeutics Inc, which gained 52.21% to close at 0. 70, as well as shares of China Index Holdings Ltd., which rose 42.86% to close the session at 1.00.

    The drop leaders were WeTrade Group Inc, which shed 39.02% to close at 3.22. Shares of Golden Sun Education Group Ltd lost 38.06% and ended the session at 21.99. Quotes of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc decreased in price by 38.43% to 1.33.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,552) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,531), while quotes of 123 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1897 companies rose in price, 1846 fell, and 197 remained at the level of the previous close.

    Shares in Occidental Petroleum Corporation surged to a 3-year high, rising 6.90% or 4.76 points to close at 73.79.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 1.30% to 24.11.

    Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.71%, or 12.35, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 3.62%, or 3.27, to $93.63 a barrel. Brent futures for October delivery rose 3.81%, or 3.68, to $100.16 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.28% to 1.00, while USD/JPY fell 0.51% to hit 136.76.

    Futures on the USD index fell 0.47% to 108.47.

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    GBP/USD: "Disappointing" pound at the peak of undervaluation



    There is a paradoxical situation in the dynamics of the British currency. The pound, which is teetering on the brink of failure and periodically tests low levels, is considered by many experts to be undervalued. This factor helps the pound "float" out of the deepest price drops.

    This week, the British currency was actively declining against the USD, trying to develop a bearish rally. As a result, the pound traded near two-year lows, stepping over the 1.1700 support level from time to time. GBP/USD managed to move towards consolidation later this week, breaking a four-day streak of declines and climbing above 1.1800. However, in the short term, pound bears will lose out due to lack of appetite for risk. At the same time, many investors prefer selling GBP, fearing the strengthening of energy problems in the country.

    After the release of reports on inflation in the UK, short positions on the British currency intensified. According to reports for July, the consumer price index in the country reached 10.1%, being the highest since 1982. Citi Bank analysts estimate that inflation in the UK will soar to a record 18.6% in January 2023. The reason is a significant increase in prices for blue fuel. According to experts, British inflation will be the highest since the 1979 oil crisis, when its level corresponded to 17.8%. Under such a scenario, the purchasing power of the population will drop sharply. This will trigger a further economic downturn, hurting household finances in the UK.

    However, many experts believe that Citi Bank's forecast is extreme, and even the intensification of the energy crisis in the country is unlikely to lead to a sharp round of inflation. This scenario is at odds with the baseline consensus forecast, which assumes inflation to rise to 11.9%, and the Bank of England's estimate (which assumes inflation to rise to 13%). The latter option is quite possible if the new British prime minister introduces another fiscal stimulus.

    The current situation has a negative impact on the pound's dynamics, which remains under pressure. The GBP/USD pair cruised near 1.1835 on the morning of Thursday, August 25, gaining momentum. The pound is looking to recoup previous losses with varying degrees of success.



    Additional pressure on the dynamics of the GBP has increased fears about the onset of a recession in the UK in the third quarter of this year. In such a scenario, the BoE will have to revise its current monetary policy and slow down the key rate hike. Analysts estimate that the pound is now negatively correlated with interest rates, as the risk of a recession is more important than the potential tightening of monetary policy by the BoE.

    On the side of the bears of the British currency - a long-term strengthening of the greenback, which is fueled by the confidence of market players in the further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In addition, investors are convinced that the central bank is set for a significant rate hike in September (by 50-75 bps). The Fed's hawkish stance on this issue will send the dollar to new highs. However, risky assets, including the British currency, will come under pressure. Against this background, experts recommend holding short positions on the GBP/USD pair with 1.1500 as the target.

    Currency strategists at the investment bank JPMorgan also adhere to the downward trend against the pound. Analysts expect the pound to fall against the dollar to its lowest level in two years. The reasons are the strengthening of the recession in the UK and the aggravation of the energy crisis due to problems with gas supplies. Against this background, the pound risks falling to 1.1400, the level that was recorded in March 2020.

    According to JPMorgan economists, in 2022 the British currency fell by 12% against the US, and this is not the limit. The current situation has made the pound one of the worst G10 currencies in terms of spot returns. However, JP Morgan does not rule out a further recovery of the pound in 2023.

    According to experts, risk appetite, the decline in the role of the USD and a fair assessment of the pound stand out among the catalysts for the potential growth of the GBP. Many analysts believe that the pound's undervaluation is a key factor that can prevent its further fall. Over the past 15 years, the deviation of the GBP/USD pair from fair value did not exceed 20%. Currently, the pound is at the peak of undervaluation (by 19.3%). According to experts, the pound may fall even more and remain underestimated for a long time.

    According to analysts, the pound retains the potential for further decline, which is possible in the short and medium term planning horizons. The pound may be supported by increased risk appetite and the withdrawal of the greenback from its leading position. However, in light of the strengthening USD, this is unlikely. The pound's appeal for investors is possible amid falling real rates in the US, but now this is unattainable. At current levels, assets denominated in GBP look very cheap for foreign investors, experts conclude.

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