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Date : 30th May 2022.
Market Update May 30 Month-end Rebalancing.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Risk appetite continued to surge with Wall Street closing sharply higher on Friday ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend. Worries that an aggressive FOMC policy posture with officials intent on destroying growth to curb inflation have been dissipating. USD down from Fridays highs (USDIndex 101.39) as Fed bets ease. Today, Stocks had a very strong start to the day as concern over aggressive tightening in the US and Chinas virus lockdowns eased somewhat. (NASDAQ +1.4%, Nikkei +2.2%). Shanghai said on Sunday unreasonable curbs on businesses will be removed from June 1, while Beijing reopened parts of its public transport as well as some malls. US markets will remain closed for a holiday today, but across the Eurozone Yields are rising as confidence improves and the German 10-year has lifted 4.7 bp to 1.00% in early trade. The Swedish economy contracted -0.8% q/q in Q1, a much weaker than expected result. Spanish HICP inflation hit 8.5% in May, and German import price inflation came in at 31.7% in April readings, up from 31.2% y/y.
* USDIndex extends declines and trades at 101.39. Chair Powell confirming that a 75 bp hike is not on the table for now has helped stabilize investor sentiment and encourage bargain hunters.
* Equities Nikkei up 1.8% at 27,263.37, a level not seen since April 21, Topix was up 1.59% at 1,916.88. Shares of shipping firms such as ISHIP.T fell 4.3 which was the worst performer. GER40 and UK100 are up 0.9% and 0.4%.
* Yields German 10-year has lifted 4.7 bp to 1.00% in early trade.
* Oil & Gold up USOil rallied to $115.80, and Gold retested the $1863 barrier, holding over $1850 at $1854. Markets waited to see if the European Union would reach an agreement on banning Russian oil ahead of a meeting on a sixth package of sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
* Bitcoin holds on the back foot below 31K.
* FX markets EURUSD up to test 1.0770, USDJPY retests up to 127.34, Cable pull back to 1.2634 from 1.2656 this morning.
Today German HICP, Feds Waller speech, New Zealand building permits and Japanese labor data and retail trade.
Biggest FX Mover @ (08:00 GMT) CADCHF (+0.39%) jumped to 0.7550 on EU open, and retook a place above the 50-day SMA. In the 1-hour chart, MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & holds 0 line, RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00099, Daily ATR 0.00747.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
HF Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 31st May 2022.
Market Update May 31.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Stock markets traded mixed. Overnight Chinese data showed a slowdown in the pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector. Beijings new policy support, which includes cash handouts for hiring graduates and support for internet companies offshore listings, supported the sentiment a bit. In the rest of the world though, inflation jitters returned and yields spiked, with Australias 10-year up 8.5 bp and the German Bund yield lifting 1.0 bp to 1.06%. US Dollar stabilized as Treasury yields spiked.
European open: Swiss economy stronger than expected at the start of the year. Official GDP numbers beat expectations and showed a quarterly growth rate of 0.5% q/q up from 0.3% q/q in Q4 last year. Services were still held back at the start of the quarter by virus restrictions, and the impact of Russias invasion of Ukraine wont show in these numbers yet. SNB head Jordan warned that the fallout from the war and sanctions against Russia could mean stagflation risks globally, but still, with these numbers, the SNBs negative interest rate environment will also be challenged.
* USDIndex recovered slightly to 101.79.
* Equities Nikkei and ASX meanwhile closed with losses of -0.3% and -1.0% respectively as inflation jitters returned and yields spiked. GER40 and UK100 up 0.9% and 0.4%.
* Yields US 10-year rate has jumped 9.4 bp to 2.83% as markets return from yesterdays holiday.
* Oil USOil spiked to $119.20 per barrel as demand expectations pick up and EU leaders agreed a partial ban on Russian oil.
* Bitcoin extended gains above 20-day SMA for the first time since April 7.
* FX markets USDJPY lifted to 127.33, EURUSD down to 1.0734, Cable below the 1.26 mark.
Today GDP from Switzerland and Canada for Q1, German unemployment, Eurozone HICP. US housing index, Chicago index and Consumer Confidence. The Biden-Powell meeting is also on tap.
Biggest FX Mover @ (08:00 GMT) EURUSD (-0.39%) declined to 1.0730 due to USD strength. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram zeroed, RSI 35 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00117, Daily ATR 0.00942.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
HF Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 1st June 2022.
Market Update June 01 European stocks advance despite data.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Wall Street was generally lower, but off its worst levels. Bond and stock bears returned refreshed from the Memorial Day holiday and got right to work, pushing Treasury yields higher and Wall Street lower. Treasuries underperformed globally after comments from Fed Governor Waller on Monday where he supported several more 50 bp rate hikes to curb inflation. Additionally, record high Eurozone inflation and hawkish ECB speak from Villeroy and Visco added to the concerns over central bank tightening. US data were mixed with ongoing record strength in home prices but worsening in consumer sentiment. Today, European stock futures are advancing as Bunds move higher at the open, despite the plunge in German retail sales data at the start of the session, which flagged the impact of rising inflation on consumption trends.
Overnight: President Biden stressed he would not interfere with the Feds independence, in comments after meeting with Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen. Biden said his plan to address inflation starts with a simple proposition, respect the Feds independence. He also said Powell has noted he has a laser focus on addressing inflation. So as expected this was largely a photo op for the president as he tried to assure that he and Chair Powell are addressing inflation.
* USDIndex at 101.97, after 102.17 highs. The buck found renewed strength after comments from Fed Governor Waller who said on Monday, he favored several more half point rate hikes until the inflation rate is brought back toward the 2% target.
* Equities The USA30 and USA500 closed down -0.67% and -0.63%, respectively, while the USA100 fell -0.41%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.43% and 0.36%.
* Yields 10-year rate spiked 13 bps to a high of 2.88%, and the 2-year climbed 10 bps to test 2.58%.
* Oil USOil drifted to 114.05 from 120.45. Oil prices rallied on the economic hopes and news the EU would ban some Russian imports, but then collapsed into the close on reports OPEC+ was considering exempting Russia from production quotas, thus opening the door for increased output from the likes of Saudi and UAE.
* Bitcoin steady at 31,550.
* FX markets USDJPY spiked to 129.35, with EURUSD at 1.0716, and GBPUSD has dropped below 1.2600, although Sterling is nudging higher against the EUR.
Today Eurozone unemployment rate, ECB Lagarde speech, ISM Manufacturing Index & PMI, BOC Rate Decision and Statement and lots of Fed speeches.
Biggest FX Mover @ (08:00 GMT) XAUUSD (-0.70%) broke the 20- and 200-day SMA. Intraday MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line well below 0, RSI 34 but flattening, H1 ATR 3.16, Daily ATR 21.92.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
HF Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 2nd June 2022.
Market Update June 2 USD Ticks Higher, Stocks Slip Yields Firmer.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD moved higher (USDIndex 102.43) Stocks had a weak US session (NASDAQ -0.72%) and Yields rallied to 2.931%. Asian markets followed US lower (Nikkei -0.16%, Hang Seng -1.10%) with China closed today. European FUTS are lower (Italy, Spain & France closed & UK closed until Monday). Central bank outlooks and Chinas virus lockdowns remain in focus (Shanghai open but zero policy still in place) amid concern that aggressive monetary policy tightening will weigh on growth outlook. BOC increased rates by 50bp & Bullard remained very hawkish, both expected. Oil prices bounced ahead of OPEC+ today Saudi Arabia ready to boost output should Russian production fall.
* USDIndex rallied to 102.72 from 101.28 & one-month lows on Monday. Back to 102.40 now.
* Equities USA500 -31 (-0.75%) at 4101, US500FUTS at 4100 now. Walmart & Meta -2.49% (Sheryl Sandberg to leave Meta after 14 yrs as COO)
* Yields 10-year yield higher (2.931% at close), trades at 2.91% now.
Oil & Gold had mixed sessions USOil sank to $111.60 before correcting to $113 now following SA news ahead of OPEC+ meeting, Gold rallied over $1850 to $1852 from $1830 yesterday.
* Bitcoin slipped back under $30K after 3-day move north. Trades at $29.8K now.
* FX markets EURUSD down under 1.0700 again to 1.0670, USDJPY breaks over 130.00, Cable trades at 1.2500, from 1.2450 yesterday.
Overnight AUD Trade Balance significantly better than expected.
Today ADP Employment, Weekly Claims, Weekly Oil Inventories, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Mester & NY Feds Logan.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCHF (-0.54%) A surprise spike in Swiss CPI puts pressure on SNB to act. Pair dived from 0.9640 to 0.9575. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram negative & breaks 0 line, RSI 35 & falling, H1 ATR 0.0013, Daily ATR 0.0070.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head HF Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 3rd June 2022.
Market Update June 3 Wild Swings Continued.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Trading is rather directionless this morning in the lead up to the jobs data. USD moved lower (USDIndex 101.70). Stocks extended gains overnight (NASDAQ +2.69%) and Treasuries bounced from red to green and back again. Asian markets managed pretty broad gains, with tech stocks still outperforming after they led yesterdays rally on Wall Street (Nikkei +1.2%, ASX +0.9%) with China & HK closed today. European FUTS are lower (Italy, Spain & France closed & UK closed until Monday). Treasury announced a $96 bln package of coupon auctions for next week. Yesterdays data showed strength in jobless claims and weakness in ADP private payrolls and factory orders.
* USDIndex pulled back to 101.70, reverting all the gains from Wednesday.
* Equities USA500 (+1.84%) at 4189, while the USA30 was 1.33% firmer. The GER40 future is up 0.8% while US futures are looking more cautious as key US payroll numbers come into view.
* Yields 10-year rate was up 0.5 bps to 2.91%, with the 2-year 0.2 bps lower at 2.64%.
* Oil USOil spiked to $116.27 before correcting to $114.60 now, following the bullish EIA inventory report that overshadowed the boost in production announced by OPEC+ in July and August, only to tumble on reports OPEC+ was considering excluding Russia from production quotas which suggested increased output from Saudi and the UAE to make up for the loss.
* Gold rallied to $1874.
* Bitcoin back above $30k.
* FX markets USDIndex is slightly lower, EURUSD managed to move up to 1.0755, USDJPY is still holding close to 130.00, Cable is at 1.2574.
NOTE: NFP is unlikely to make any difference in terms of the Fed but the labor market into Q3 will be an important determinant for the FOMC. Meanwhile, the markets continue to vacillate on risk-on, risk-off flows, and waver on inflation/growth uncertainties, as well as the outlook for the responses from key central banks, while volatility in energy and the ongoing distortions from supply chains also continue to impact.
Today EU Retail Sales, US NFP, ISM Services PMI and Speech from Biden.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Cocoa (-1.55%) dipped to 50-period SMA at 2470 from 2537. MAs aligning lower, MACD lines decline but hold above 0, RSI 46 but pointing higher, H1 ATR 19.07, Daily ATR 51.92.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
HF Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 14th June 2022.
Market Update June 14 Is the ugly Monday over?
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD spiked (USDIndex 105.10), Stocks plummeted once again (NASDAQ -4.68%, Dow -800pts & S&P close to -151pts). Fridays hot CPI report; low consumer sentiment; stagflation worries continued; and global uncertainty over how hard the FOMC will have to slam on the brakes to slow demand and bring down inflation. Yields higher on fears of aggressive interest rate hikes would push the worlds largest economy into recession (US 5yr & 10yr back over 3.57% & 3.48%, 2yr at 3.33%). Asian markets have sold off in catch up trade, (Nikkei -1.30%). Oil up, Gold remains pressured by rising yields.
* USDIndex rallied to 105.10.
* Equities Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 1.0% and 0.8%, while a 1.6% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher.
* Oil & Gold had weaker sessions USOil struggles to break $122.00 handle, Gold is slumped on the Fed outlook and the strength in the USD, to $1809.
* Bitcoin TANKED to $20,796. Major cryptocurrency lending company Celsius Networks freezing of withdrawals delivered the latest jolt to investors in the asset-class.
* FX markets EURUSD down at 1.0458, USDJPY tested 135 zone, Cable trades up at 1.2200, from 1.2120.
Overnight ILO unemployment rate jumped to 3.8%. German HICP inflation was confirmed at 8.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number. The national CPI rate stood at 7.9% and inflation is at the highest level since 1973, during the first oil price crisis. Chaoyang kicked off a three-day mass testing campaign among its roughly 3.5 million residents.
Today German ZEW, US PPI and ECBs Schnabel speech.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCUSD (-7.02%). Drifts to 20781. Next key resistance is at 2017 peak, 19470. Intraday, MAs flattened, MACD histogram negative, RSI 23 but rising, indicating some temporary bounce but overall downtrend.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 15th June 2022.
Market Update June 15.
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD down (USDIndex 104.70), Stocks mixed (NASDAQ +0.18%, Dow -0.5% & S&P -0.38%). A boost to Australias minimum wage and RBA pledge to do what is necessary to meet the inflation target fueled the jump in yields. Expectations are now for 50 bp hikes in July as well as September and Australias curve shifted more than 20 bp higher today. Yields extended higher as dip buyers have thrown in the towel for now, leaving sellers in control as the market adjusts to the potential for a very hawkish FOMC. (US 5yr & 7yr rates up to 3.606% and 3.59%, 2yr at 3.43%). US PPI increased 0.8% in May and the core rose 0.5% bearish for the markets. ECB to hold emergency meeting to discuss current market conditions. A Bloomberg source story yesterday suggested that the ECB remains tight lipped on new plan to keep spreads in.
* USDIndex pulled back to 104.78.Against a backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising rates, and growing recession concerns, the S&P 500 has had its worst start to the year since 1962, noted analysts at Goldman Sachs.
* Υields have extended higher, at the highest rates in well over a decade. The 10-year cheapened over 12 bp to 3.488%, not seen since the spring of 2011.
* Equities Nikkei and ASX lost a further 0.9% and 1.3% respectively. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.6% and 2.7%.
* Oil drifted to 116.55 before settling at 119.58 amid FED and reports that US Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden plans to introduce legislation setting a 21% surtax on oil company profits considered excessive.
* Golds near its lowest area in a month, now at $1,820.
* Bitcoin steady above $20K.
* BOJ offers to buy unlimited sum of JGBs with 7 years left until maturity.
* FX markets EURUSD rebounded to 1.0498 from 1.0396, USDJPY back below 135 zone, Cable settled at 1.2040.
Today The focus will be on the ECB meeting but also on the dot plot and the terminal rate, as well as how Chair Powell assesses the outlooks of inflation, growth, and the labor market.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDIndex (-0.35%) down to 50-hour SMA, 104.72. Intraday, MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram neutral, RSI 41 & sloping. H1 ATR at 0.14 & Daily ATR at 0.79.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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