Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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  1. #21
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    Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen
    GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Gains Bullish Momentum


    GBP/USD started a strong increase above the 1.3500 resistance zone. GBP/JPY also gained traction and it gained pace above the 140.00 resistance zone to move into a positive zone.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

    • The British Pound climbed higher above the 1.3500 and 1.3550 resistance levels.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3555 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • GBP/JPY also climbed higher steadily above the 139.50 and 140.00 resistance levels.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 140.30 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    This past week, the British Pound saw a strong increase from the 1.3300 support zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3500 resistance zone to move further into a positive zone.

    The upward move was such that the pair even broke the 1.3550 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.3618 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating gains.


    It corrected lower towards 1.3520 and traded as low as 1.3522. Recently, there was a minor increase above the 1.3540 level. The pair climbed above the 1.3550 level, and tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3618 high to 1.3522 low.

    The first major resistance is near the 1.3580 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3618 high to 1.3522 low.

    On the upside, a clear break above the 1.3600 resistance level is needed for more upsides. The next major resistance is near the 1.3650 level, above which the pair could rise towards the 1.3680 and 1.3700 levels.

    On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3555 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the pair could continue to move down towards the 1.3500 support level in the near term.

    GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

    The British Pound also climbed nicely from the 137.50 support level against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair climbed above the 138.50 level to start a steady increase.

    It gained pace above the 139.20 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It even spiked above the 141.00 level and traded as high as 141.21 before correcting lower. There was a break below the 140.50 support level.


    However, the pair remained stable above 140.00 and a low is formed near 140.07. The pair is currently rising and trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 141.21 high to 140.07 low.

    The pair is now facing hurdles near the 140.50 and 140.60 levels. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 141.21 high to 140.07 low is also near the 140.60 zone.

    A clear break above the 140.60 resistance could open the doors for a fresh increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise above the 141.00 and 141.20 resistance levels.

    On the downside, there is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 140.30 on the hourly chart. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, GBP/JPY could retest the 138.50 support level.


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    EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Gains Bullish Momentum


    EUR/USD gained bullish momentum and traded to a new multi-month high above 1.2290. EUR/JPY is also showing positive signs and trading nicely above the 126.80 support.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
    • The Euro started a strong increase above the 1.2150 and 1.2200 resistance levels.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2235 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • EUR/JPY followed a similar pattern and broke the main 126.65 resistance.
    • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 126.35 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    In the past few days, the Euro remained in a positive zone above the 1.2080 and 1.2120 levels against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.2200 resistance zone to move further into a positive zone.

    It settled nicely above the 1.2220 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was an upside continuation above the 1.2250 level. The pair traded to a new multi-month high at 1.2294 on FXOpen and it is currently consolidating gains.


    An initial support on the downside is near the 1.2280 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.2236 swing low to 1.2294 high.

    The first major support is near the 1.2270 level. The next support is near the 1.2265 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.2236 swing low to 1.2294 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2235 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

    Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2220 level in the near term. On the upside, the 1.2300 zone is likely to act as a major resistance. A clear break above the 1.2300 zone could open the doors for a steady increase in the coming days towards 1.2340 or 1.2350.

    EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Euro also followed a bullish path above 126.00 against the Japanese Yen. The EUR/JPY pair broke the main 126.65 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

    There was also a close above the 126.80 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. To start the current increase, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 126.35 on the hourly chart.


    The pair traded as high as 127.23 before correcting lower. It traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 126.04 swing low to 127.23 high.

    There is a currently a contracting triangle forming with resistance near 127.00 zone. A clear break above the 127.00 and 127.10 levels could open the doors for a sharp increase. The next major resistance for the bulls could be near the 127.50 level.

    Conversely, there could be a downside break below the triangle support at 126.85. The next key support is near the 126.65 level (the breakout zone). It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 126.04 swing low to 127.23 high.

    If the pair breaks the 126.65 support zone and the 50 SMA, there are chances of a push down towards the 126.20 support zone. The next major support sits near the 126.00 zone.


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    AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signaling Upside Continuation


    AUD/USD remained in a positive zone and climbed above the 0.7700 resistance. NZD/USD is also showing positive signs and it is likely to continue higher above 0.7220.

    Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD
    • The Aussie Dollar extended its rally above the 0.7600 and 0.7700 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7695 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • NZD/USD climbed higher towards the 0.7240 level before correcting lower.
    • A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7160 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.


    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    In the past few weeks, the Aussie Dollar remained in a bullish zone above the 0.7500 pivot level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even broke the 0.7650 resistance level to move further into a positive zone.

    The pair followed a bullish path and it even broke the 0.7700 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A new multi-month high is formed near 0.7742 on FXOpen and the pair is currently correcting lower.


    There was a break below the 0.7720 support level. The pair even spiked below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 0.7557 swing low to 0.7742 high.

    However, the pair is finding a strong support near the 0.7700 zone. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7695 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The 50 hourly simple moving average is also following the trend line at 0.7690.

    If there is a downside break below the trend line and the 50 hourly simple moving average, there is a risk of more downsides towards the 0.7670 support. The next major support is near 0.7650 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 0.7557 swing low to 0.7742 high.

    On the upside, the 0.7740 level is a decent resistance. A clear break above the 0.7740 and 0.7750 levels may possibly open the doors for a larger increase in the coming sessions.

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis

    The New Zealand Dollar also followed a bullish path above the 0.7100 region against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair remained well bid and it even climbed above the 0.7200 resistance.

    The pair traded close to the 0.7250 level and a new multi-month high was formed near 0.7241. Recently, there was a downside correction below the 0.7220 support. The pair traded below a connecting bullish trend line with support at 0.7220 on the hourly chart.


    There was also a spike below 0.7200, the 50 hourly simple moving average, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7139 swing low to 0.7241 high.

    However, the pair remained well bid near the 0.7180 level. It also remained stable above the 61.8% 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7160 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

    If there is a downside break below the trend line support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7140 and 0.7120 support levels.

    Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7220 and 0.7225 resistance levels. In the stated case, NZD/USD might even test the 0.7300 level in the coming days.

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    Bitcoin Rollercoaster Price Action Continues


    Bitcoin held the headlines into the end of the trading year. It rose from $10,000 in October to $35,000 in late December, tripling in value in less than two months.

    Much of the advance, though, came in low liquidity and when “no one was looking”. Just like in 2017 when Bitcoin reached close to $20k, the advance in late 2020 happened during the thin trading environment caused by the end of year holidays.

    What Causes Bitcoin Bullishness?

    Recently, more and more institutional investors turn to Bitcoin. Viewed as a safe-haven asset and a store of value that competes with gold, the digital alternative investment opportunity offered by Bitcoin appeals to more and more people.

    Scarcity is one attribute that many investors value. As the number of Bitcoins is limited, the scarcity makes it possible for the price of it to advance so fast and so aggressive.

    But the same is valid in downturns. As 2021 just started, Bitcoin is down 15% from the highs, trading below $29k at the time of writing this article after it was as high as $35k in late December. Anyone happy with such drawdowns should not have any problem in owning Bitcoin – though few investors are willing to take such an asset into a professional portfolio.

    Risks for Bitcoin

    The risks for Bitcoin moving into 2021 trading come from regulation. We saw at the end of last year’s trading that Ripple suffered from the SEC in the United States initiating a lawsuit against its founders, causing the price of Ripple to collapse instantly. If the allegations of illegally selling securities are extended to other crypto assets, the risk is that Bitcoin will suffer from collateral damage too.

    Already at this point, many public companies and institutional investors announced huge investments in Bitcoin. We talk about billions, as MicroStrategy is just an example of a company that invested most of its treasury in Bitcoin.

    Should the price of Bitcoin continue to retrace from the highs, some weak hands may be forced to liquidity. This may also be exacerbated by a possible reversal in the USD. If that happens, then Bitcoin has more room to correct.

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    BTC and XRP – Consolidation developing but for how long?


    BTC/USD

    The price of Bitcoin has been in a decline since Sunday when it reached $34,716 at its highest point. We have seen a downfall to $30,367 but the price spiked further to $27,774 at its lowest wick before snapping back above the 0 Fib level. Currently, it is being consolidated above it and is moving sideways, sitting at $31,901 and is in an upward trajectory.


    Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the price completed another five-wave impulse to the upside that started on the 21st of December. This rise was most likely the ending wave of the higher degree count which is why now we are seeing some consolidation. The price action may continue to move sideways for some time now but if the 5th wave of a higher degree is in, then the price is now likely to decline further in a corrective manner.

    From Sunday’s high, we have seen a three-wave decrease which could have been a local correction which would mean that another minor higher high could come, but in that case, the current move should be the developing lower degree impulse which doesn’t look like one. This is why it is more likely that now we are seeing a corrective increase before further impulsive moves to the downside.

    XRP/USD

    The price of Ripple has been in a recovery attempt since the 29th of December when it fell to the $0.18 area, but it hasn’t moved that much to the upside, only reaching $0.2588 on yesterday’s high. Since then another move to the downside was made to around $0.225 level, slightly above which it is currently being traded.


    On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Ripple is moving around its significant horizontal support zone as its attempting to establish support. This lookout for support is being made after a sharp and impulsive decline ended which was the Z wave from the complex correction count.

    This is why now another wave to the upside is to start, but it is still uncertain whether or not it’s going to be an impulsive move or another corrective increase before a further decline. Considering the amount of decrease we have seen prior it is more likely that the price is now going to make a recovery but the bearish sentiment is still holding it behind the general market. This is why the price now has to establish a new bottom, potentially revisiting the lower range of the support zone in order to activate buying and chasing of the price that could cause a recovery.

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    GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Could Correct Lower


    GBP/USD extended its rise towards 1.3700 before starting a downside correction. EUR/GBP is showing positive signs and it could surge if it breaks the 0.9050 resistance.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

    • The British Pound traded towards the 1.3700 zone, where it faced a strong selling interest.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3580 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • EUR/GBP started a fresh increase and it broke the 0.9000 resistance zone.
    • There is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near 0.9045 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    In the past few days, there was a steady increase in the British Pound above the 1.3500 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3600 zone to continue higher.

    The pair gained momentum above 1.3620 and it even spiked above the 1.3700 resistance. A new multi-month high was formed near 1.3703 on FXOpen before the pair started a downside correction. It traded below the 1.3650 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.


    There was a break below a key rising channel with support near 1.3680 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. It opened the doors for more losses and the pair dived below 1.3600. It traded as low as 1.3540 and it is currently correcting higher.

    There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3703 high to 1.3540 low. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3580 on the same chart.

    On the upside, the pair is facing a strong resistance near the 1.3620 level, the 50 hourly simple moving average, and the 1.3650 zone. A clear break above the 1.3650 zone is needed for a fresh move towards 1.3700 or even higher.

    Conversely, the pair could break the trend line support and continue lower below 1.3580. The next major support is at 1.3540, below which the pair could test the 1.3500 support.

    EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

    The Euro traded as low as 0.8931 before it started a fresh increase against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair broke the 0.8980 and 0.9000 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

    The pair gained pace above 0.9000 and it even settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key downward move from the 0.9092 swing high to 0.8931 low.


    The pair even tested the 0.9050 resistance zone, and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the key downward move from the 0.9092 swing high to 0.8931 low.

    On the upside, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near 0.9045 on the hourly chart. The main resistance is near the 0.9050 level. A clear break above the trend line resistance may possibly increase the chances of a strong rise towards the 0.9100 level.

    Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline. The main support is forming near the 0.9000 area and the 50 hourly SMA. If there is a downside break below the 0.9010 and 0.9000 support levels, the pair could continue to move down towards the 0.8950 level in the near term.

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    LTC and EOS – Establishing support before new highs


    LTC/USD

    The price of Litecoin has been increasing since last week and came up from $124.2 at its lowest point on Saturday to $170 at its highest on Monday. This week has started with a pullback to $147.2 but the price is back on the same levels as on Monday.


    Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made an interaction with the horizontal resistance found at the $170 level and fell back to its ascending trendline. As it found support there again it is currently making another breakout attempt.

    If the price makes a higher high and continued moving past the $170 level it would serve as an early indication that the price is going to continue its bullish trajectory past the upper ascending trendline as well.

    But if it fails to do so we might be seeing the completion of the higher degree ending diagonal which formed on the 24th of December. If this is the case then the currently seeing breakout attempt might end as a slightly higher high just making an interaction with the upper ascending trendline before we see a downturn.

    However, currently, there are more signs of bullishness than bearishness which is why the uptrend continuation looks more likely.

    EOS/USD

    From the start of January when the price of EOS was sitting at $2.55 we have seen an increase of 35.68% measured to its highest point at $3.4617 made yesterday. Since then the price made a minor pullback to $3.11 but is now back above $3.315 again.


    On the hourly chart, you can see that the price action made a cup and handle formation since the 20th of December and has now made a higher high compared to the one then. We are now seeing the formation of the handle pattern which is set to consolidate the price and establish support before it can move to the upside again.

    From the start of the year, the price has moved parabolically to the upside so its upward trajectory would be expected to continue, but not before it makes a revisiting to the zone below $3.27. It could continue to its more significant horizontal zone at around $2.9 but that doesn’t look as likely considering the bullish momentum seen. More likely we are to see another spike to the downside like we have from yesterday’s high potentially coming to the $3 mark which is both a psychological level and the local horizontal support.

    After this, a further upside would be expected for the price of EOS in the same impulsive manner as it did from the start of the new year. The next significant price point would be at $3.84 where the price made the previous high on November 25th.

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    Gold Price Trims Gains While Oil Price Turns Bullish Above $50


    Gold price started a downside correction after surging towards $1,960. Conversely, crude oil price is following a strong bullish path and it settled above $50.00.

    Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
    • Gold price started a fresh increase towards $1,950-$1,960 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.
    • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $1,920 on the hourly chart of gold.
    • Crude oil price surged above the $48.00 resistance and it even broke the $50.00 barrier.
    • There is a key rising channel forming with support near $50.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.


    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,910 resistance level against the US Dollar. The price broke the $1,925 and $1,950 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

    The price even traded close to the $1,960 before it faced sellers. A swing high was formed near $1,959 on FXOpen before the price started a downside correction. There was a sharp decline below the $1,950 and $1,940 levels.


    During the decline, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $1,920 on the hourly chart of gold. The price traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,872 swing low to $1,959 high.

    It even settled below the $1,920 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It seems like the price is approaching the $1,905 and $1,900 support levels. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,872 swing low to $1,959 high might also provide support.

    Any more losses could lead the price towards the $1,880 support level. Conversely, the price could attempt a fresh increase above the $1,915 and $1,920 resistance levels.

    A successful close above the $1,920 and the 50 hourly simple moving average could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions. The next major resistance is near the $1,950 level.

    Oil Price Technical Analysis

    Crude oil price started a steady rise after it broke the key $48.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price broke many hurdles near $50.00 to move further into a positive zone.

    The price even broke the $51.00 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded to a new multi-month high near $51.26 before starting a downside correction. It declined towards $50.50 level and it is currently rising.


    There was a break above the $50.80 resistance. The price recovered above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $51.26 high to $50.43 low.

    It is now trading above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $51.26 high to $50.43 low. Therefore, there are high chances of a break above the $51.20 and $51.50 resistance levels in the coming sessions.

    On the downside, an initial support is near the $50.80 level. There is also a key rising channel forming with support near $50.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

    If there is a downside break below the channel support trend line, the price could decline towards the $50.00 support level. The next major support sits near the $49.55 level.

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    GBP/USD Could Decline Further, USD/CAD Is Eyeing Upside Break


    GBP/USD started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 1.3700 resistance. USD/CAD is rising and it is currently eyeing an upside break above 1.2750.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

    • The British Pound started a major downside correction from well above 1.3650.
    • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3610 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • USD/CAD started a fresh increase after forming a support base near the 1.2660 level.
    • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2700 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    After a decent increase, the British Pound faced resistance near 1.3680-1.3700 against the US Dollar. As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a fresh decline and broke a couple of important supports near 1.3650.

    The pair gained bearish momentum below the 1.3600 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It even broke a major support zone at 1.3540 to move into a bearish zone. It traded as low as 1.3496 on FXOpen, and the pair is currently consolidating losses.


    An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3525 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3635 high to 1.3496 low.

    The first major resistance is near the 1.3540 level (the recent breakdown zone). The next resistance is near the 1.3565 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is also close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3635 high to 1.3496 low.

    Finally, there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3610 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. Clearly, the pair is likely to face many hurdles if it starts an upside correction from the recent low of 1.3496.

    On the downside, the first key support is near the 1.2500 area. The next major support is near the 1.3470 level, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline.

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    The US Dollar traded as low as 1.3629 before starting a decent upward move against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair broke the 1.3650 and 1.3665 resistance levels to move into a short-term bullish zone.

    The pair gained pace above the 1.3700 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Moreover, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2700 on the hourly chart.


    The pair even broke 1.2720, and climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2797 high to 1.2629 swing low. It is now attempting an upside break above another bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2750 on the same chart.

    The next key resistance is near the 1.2760 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2797 high to 1.2629 swing low.

    A clear break above the 1.2750 and 1.2760 resistance levels may possibly increase the chances of a strong upward move in the coming sessions. The next key resistance sits at 1.2800.

    Conversely, USD/CAD might start another decline if it fails near 1.2750. An initial support is near the 1.2700 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The main support seems to be forming near 1.2665.

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  10. #30
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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    The USD Reverses Course as the NFP Misses Expectations


    Last week brought some troubling events in the United States, as protesters took the Capital by assault. Lives were lost, and the nation faces an identity crisis.

    Shortly after the order was restored, President Trump recognized President-elect Biden’s victory and ensured people that there would be a peaceful transition of power on the 20th of the month when the new administration takes charge.

    But it was too little too late. In the meantime, Twitter suspended the President’s account, and America is on a race to identify each and every one of the protesters.

    As such, the economic data paled in the face of the political events. However, the USD did move, as it seems that it reversed course, easing from the highs.

    What Did the NFP Show?

    The NFP report released last Friday showed the data for the month of December 2020. The U.S. economy lost 140k jobs, much worse than the expectations of adding 60k.

    Unsurprisingly, the leisure and hospitality sectors were responsible for most of the job losses, as the pandemic continues to take its toll. However, the November numbers were revised higher, and the unemployment rate remained stable, somehow diminishing the impact of the December report.

    ISM Manufacturing Above 60

    One of the most striking pieces of economic data released last week was the ISM Manufacturing. It climbed above 60, and most of the time, when it did so in the past, the dollar strengthened in the following one hundred days.

    The thing is that all investment houses predict a lower dollar in 2021. Whenever such a consensus exists, the danger is that exactly the opposite happens.

    So far, the dollar reflected the risk-on environment, as it moved hand in hand with the U.S. equities. As the new administration prepares to run America, the dollar may be in the grasp of a sharp reversal.

    The EURUSD is already down two big figures from the highs, and AUDUSD and GBPUSD correct as well. If the dollar’s strength continues, the world risks being caught on the wrong side of the market, as most traders are positioned for a weak dollar.

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