Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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    Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen
    EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Remains At Risk


    EUR/USD started another decline below 1.1820. EUR/JPY is also declining and it broke the 129.80 support zone.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

    • The Euro failed to clear the 1.1880 resistance and started a fresh decline.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1820 on the hourly chart.
    • EUR/JPY also started a fresh decline from well above the 130.00 level.
    • There was a break below a declining channel with support near 129.50 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis



    The Euro started a major decline after it struggled to clear the 1.1880 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1820 support zone to move into a bearish zone.

    The pair even traded below the 1.1800 support and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed near 1.1769 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a break above the 1.1800 level.

    The pair even spiked above the 1.1820 resistance level and a key bearish trend line with current resistance near 1.1820 on the hourly chart.

    However, the bulls failed to remain in action above 1.1835. A high was formed near 1.1845 and the pair declined once again. It traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1769 swing low to 1.1845 high.

    It is now consolidating near the 1.1800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. An immediate resistance is near the 1.1820 level. The main resistance is still forming near the 1.1840 and 1.1850 levels. A clear break above the 1.1850 resistance could push EUR/USD towards 1.1900.

    On the downside, the 1.1800 level is a major support. Any more losses might lead EUR/USD towards the 1.1750 support zone in the near term. The next major support sits near the 1.1720 level.

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    Gold Price Nosedives While Crude Oil Price Extends Rally



    Gold price started a major decline and traded below the $1,785 support. Crude oil price is rising and it is broke the $72.00 resistance zone.

    Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

    • Gold price started a major decline from the $1,800 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
    • There was a break below a short-term bullish trend line with support near $1,793 on the hourly chart of gold.
    • Crude oil price started a fresh increase from the $70.00 support zone.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $72.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.


    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    Gold price failed to stay above the $1,800 support zone against the US Dollar. As a result, the price started a fresh decline below the $1,800 and $1,790 levels.

    The price gained pace after it broke the $1,785 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below a short-term bullish trend line with support near $1,793 on the hourly chart of gold.

    Gold Price Hourly Chart


    The price declined below the $1,750 level and traded as low as $1,745 on FXOpen. It is now correcting higher and trading above $1,750.

    An immediate resistance is near the $1,760 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,808 high to $1,745 swing low. The first major resistance is near the $1,775 level.

    The main resistance is near the $1,785 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A close above the $1,785 levels could open the doors for a steady increase towards $1,800. The next major resistance sits near the $1,810 level.

    Conversely, the price might resume its decline below the $1,750 level. The first major support is near the $1,745 level. A downside break below the $1,745 support zone may possibly spark a sharp decline. In the stated case, the price could test the $1,720 support.

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    GBP/USD Remains At Risk, USD/CAD Gains Momentum



    GBP/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.3850 support. USD/CAD rallied and it was able to clear the 1.2750 resistance zone.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

    • The British Pound started a major decline below the 1.3850 and 1.3800 support levels.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3770 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • USD/CAD started a major increase after it cleared the 1.2700 and 1.2720 levels.
    • There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance near 1.2680 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    After struggling to clear the 1.3900 resistance, the British Pound started a major decline against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3850 support level to move into a bearish zone.

    The bears gained strength and were able to push the pair below the 1.3800 support. The pair even broke the 1.3750 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, it spiked below 1.3720 and traded as low as 1.3701 on FXOpen.

    GBP/USD Hourly Chart


    It is now consolidating losses near the 1.3700 zone. An immediate resistance is near the 1.3725 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.3812 high to 1.3701 low.

    The first major resistance is near the 1.3755 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.3812 high to 1.3701 low. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3770 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

    If there is an upside break above the trend line, the pair could recover above 1.3780. The next key resistance could be 1.3800 and the 50 hourly simple moving average, above which the pair could gain strength.

    On the downside, the first key support is near the 1.3700 area. If there is a break below 1.3700, the pair could decline extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.3640 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3600 support.

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    US Dollar Flexing Muscles Ahead Of The Fedís Decision



    The US dollar ended the previous week with a bang, rising to new heights and outpacing its main peers. The new trading week saw a continuation of this march of triumph.

    Meanwhile, investors are preparing for what may prove to be the Fed meeting of the year. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce the tapering of its asset purchases, a move already communicated to markets via its forward guidance model.

    Yet, even with this information in mind, it is quite hard to predict the marketís reaction. One of the things that bring uncertainty is the dot plot.


    Fed members are required to project the federal funds rate for the years ahead. The sum of their forecast is displayed on a chart in the form of dots. The number of rate hikes and, more importantly, their timing is what affects the way the financial markets move. Should the Fed members reveal an unexpected hawkish outlook, the dollar may grow even stronger.

    Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates

    Ahead of the Fedís meeting and outcome announcement, a risk-off sentiment seems to be dominating the markets. Evergrande, a Chinese property developer, is on the verge of collapsing, and the government has no intention to bail the company out. The big question for financial market participants is: Will the collapse of Evergrande have an impact on the international financial system, or will it end up being a local event?

    In any case, part of the US dollarís strength rides on the back of lower equities in the States. Moreover, futures markets are showing renewed weakness at the start of the trading week, so the dollar's growth prospects are good.

    All in all, this trading week will be packed with political events (i.e., Canadian and German federal elections) and central banksí decisions (i.e., Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, etc.). In other words, volatility is guaranteed to reach new record levels.

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    Natural Gas Prices Soar To New Heights. What Is Driving the Climb?



    One of the sharpest rallies in 2021 is taking place in the commodities market. Natural gas, seen below as XNGUSD, has doubled in price since late May, and the bullish run may continue into the winter season as it is about to start in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Before discussing some of the reasons why natural gas has entered an uptrend, letís look at the technical state of things. Below is the daily timeframe of the XNGUSD pair which tracks the price of natural gas in US dollars.


    The bullish run started in 2020 as the market made a double bottom within the $1.50 area. By the end of 2020, the price action stalled, and consolidation began. A contracting triangle finally acted as a continuation pattern, and the bullish breakout that followed led to the sharp rally mentioned above.

    Why Is Natural Gas Rallying?

    Different countries charge different prices for natural gas, but now, the prices have one thing in common: they are rising all over the world. In Europe, for example, the natural gas price jumped to record levels, driven by factors such as Russian supply bottlenecks or lack of wind in the UK.


    The trend is likely to continue because natural gas is used for electricity generation, plus winter is coming soon. Additionally, Russia announced recently that it wouldnít increase gas supply to Europe, so the pressure on higher prices remains.

    Letís not forget that rising demand from Asian economies drives the price higher as well. As the post-COVID-19 economic recovery continues, the higher demand will result in more bottlenecks and shortages.

    In the UK, the situation is dire, too. The country uses 40% natural gas to meet its energy demands. This week, the UK natural gas wholesale price settled at the highest-ever closing level. If we transform the price of natural gas expressed in mBtu (i.e., million British thermal units) into oil equivalent, we get $150 per barrel of oil.

    All in all, while the rally in the natural gas price is nothing short of impressive, we may see more of the same in the months to come. As winter reaches the Northern Hemisphere, the pressure on natural gas prices remains elevated.

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    EUR/USD Faces Hurdles, USD/CHF Could Extend Decline



    EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.1800 support zone. USD/CHF is declining and it might continue lower below the 0.9220 zone.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

    • The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.1800 and 1.1750 support levels against the US Dollar.
    • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1735 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • USD/CHF failed to clear 0.9335 and started a fresh downward move.
    • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.9290 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro struggled to continue higher above the 1.1840 resistance zone against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline below the 1.1800 support zone.

    The pair traded below the 1.1750 support level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below the 1.1720 level. A low was formed near 1.1700 on FXOpen before the pair started an upside correction.



    The pair recovered above the 1.1720 level, but it failed near 1.1750. A high is formed near 1.1748 and the pair is now moving lower.

    There was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1701 swing low to 1.1748 high. It is now consolidating near the 1.1720 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. An immediate support is near the 1.1718 level.

    It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1701 swing low to 1.1748 high. The next major support is near the 1.1700 level. A downside break below the 1.1700 support could start another decline.

    On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1735 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1735 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

    The main resistance is near 1.1750. If there is an upside break above the 1.1750 resistance zone, the price could rise steadily towards the 1.1800 resistance zone.

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    AUD/USD and NZD/USD Could Eye More Upsides



    AUD/USD started a fresh increase above the 0.7260 resistance zone. NZD/USD also climbed higher and it might continue to rise towards the 0.7150 level.

    Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

    • The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above the 0.7260 barrier against the US Dollar.
    • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.7260 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • NZD/USD also gained pace after it broke the 0.7020 resistance.
    • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.7020 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.


    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    After a steady decline, the Aussie Dollar found support near the 0.7225 zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair formed a base above the 0.7220 level and recently started a fresh increase.

    The pair broke the 0.7250 and 0.7260 resistance levels. There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.7260 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The pair even cleared the 0.7300 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

    AUD/USD Hourly Chart


    A high was formed near 0.7316 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. It is trading near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7223 swing low to 0.7316 high.

    An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7285 level. The next major support is near the 0.7370 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7223 swing low to 0.7316 high.

    If there is a downside break below the 0.7370 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7325 level.

    An immediate resistance is near the 0.7315 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.7320 level. A close above the 0.7320 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.7365.

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    GBP/USD Remains At Risk, EUR/GBP Could Extend Gains



    GBP/USD is trading in a bearish zone below the 1.3750 resistance zone. EUR/GBP is rising and it could gain pace if it clears the 0.8600 resistance.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

    • The British Pound declined below the 1.3800 and 1.3765 support levels.
    • There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3685 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • EUR/GBP started a decent increase and cleared the 0.8550 pivot level.
    • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8565 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis



    The British Pound started a major decline from well above 1.3800 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded below the 1.3720 and 1.3700 support levels to enter a bearish zone.

    The pair even broke the 1.3650 support and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.3609 and recently started an upside correction. The pair climbed above the 1.3700 resistance, but the bears were active near 1.3750.

    A high was formed near 1.3750 before the pair started a downside correction. There was a break below the 1.3700 support level. It traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3609 swing low to 1.3750 high.

    It is now consolidating near the 1.3665 support level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3609 swing low to 1.3750 high. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3685 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

    If there is an upside break above the triangle resistance, the price could surpass 1.3720. The main resistance is near the 1.3750 zone. Therefore, a proper break above the 1.3750 resistance could open the doors for a steady increase. The next major resistance for the bulls could be 1.3800.

    If not, the pair could break the 1.3665 and 1.3660 support levels to continue lower. The first key support is near the 1.3620 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3550 support zone.

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    Oilís Rally Continues Ahead of the OPECís World Oil Outlook Release



    The rally of oil prices continues and is getting threateningly close to reaching a new high for the year. With just a day left before OPEC releases its World Oil Outlook, the WTI crude oil price trades with a bid tone, up over 1% at the start of the trading week.

    The WTI crude oil price has grown over 85% in the last year, moving in a steady, bullish trend. It corrected over the summer months, but found strong support at the $60 level.

    Goldman Sachs Remains Bullish


    The price of oil was driven higher by strong demand following the coronavirus lockdowns and OPECís swift reaction to the pandemic. As we get closer to the end of the year, Goldman Sachs remains bullish on the price of oil. More precisely, Goldman sees Brent oil at $90/barrel at the end of the year, and it also lifted its price targets for 2022 and 2023.

    Oil is a commodity, and, as such, its price is affected by the imbalances between supply and demand. For now, demand is strong as economic recovery from the pandemic slump continues. Because OPEC has cut production below the demand level, the oil prices recovered from the negative territory in April 2020 all the way to $77, the 2021 high for the WTI crude oil.

    The Vienna talks are seen as the biggest risk for the price of oil. Iran is ready to come back to the negotiations table after the local elections ended, and the markets expect them to be successful. If the Iranian oil hits the market, the price of oil will have to reflect the extra 2 million barrels or so per day. But the negotiations are yet to startÖ and they usually take a lot of time.

    Therefore, the bias remains bullish for the price of oil for the end of the trading year. If the market manages to make a new higher high above $77, more upside is likely to come.

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis Ė 28th SEPT, 2021



    BTCUSD: Grinding above $40K Support

    Bitcoin is currently struggling to keep itself above the $40k support and the price is oscillating between the Fibonacci levels of $41472 and 100-day moving average of $42834. It remains in accumulation mode in the London trading session. BTC bullish sentiment was seen at the opening of this week when it touched a high of $44304. Long-term outlook for bitcoin appears bullish and the short-term decline currently reinforces a mild bearish trend formation.

    • The relative strength index (14-day) and ultimate oscillator are both indicating a SELL at the current market levels of $41745.
    • A short-term correction below $40000 is expected before the continuation of the bullish trend.
    • Simple and exponential moving averages indicate a strong SELL.
    • Average true range (14-day) indicates high volatility.


    Bitcoin Short-Term Bearish Formations



    Bitcoin saw a mixed start this week and there is no sign of a bullish momentum. The 100 day moving average is indicating a strong SELL.

    The immediate targets would be breaching the classic support levels at $41243 and further moving towards the next major support located at $35819.

    Bitcoin is witnessing increased volatility after China banned all crypto transactions during the previous weekly closing on Friday. The support that is holding this week could be broken and bitcoin could start a further decline this week pushing below the psychological support level of $40000.

    In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has dropped by -4.76% (+2087$) and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 31.47 billion.

    Bitcoin Sell-Off Continues

    Bitcoin is facing selling pressure after the China ban and the trading volumes are high at the Asian exchanges today.

    Also, many crypto currency exchanges are closing their Chinese accounts, leading to a withdrawal of funds in the US dollars and putting a selling pressure on BTCUSD.

    Technical Indicators:

    Relative strength index (14-day): at 32.442 with a SELL

    Ultimate oscillator: at 40.38 with a SELL

    Moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at -370.10 with a SELL

    Price of rate change ROC: at -2.31 indicating a SELL

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