Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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  1. #191
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    Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen
    Crucial Week Ahead for USD Traders



    The week ahead is decisive for USD traders as three main events will dominate financial markets – the FOMC Meeting, the Advance GDP, and the Core PCE Price Index.

    Last Thursday, the European Central Bank revised its forward guidance on interest rates to reflect the new strategy. It delivered a more dovish forward guidance, but the euro did not react. Summer trading conditions, plus the fear of a wrong positioning ahead of the important US data next week, resulted in tight market ranges.



    FOMC Statement and Press Conference to Move the USD

    This week it is all about the FOMC Statement and how the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the Fed’s message. He will likely reiterate that the tapering of asset purchases, currently running at $120 billion/month, is still far away into the distant future.

    But inflation is pressuring the Fed. The sharp rise in inflation, and specifically in house prices, will likely pressure the Fed into sticking to its tapering prospects.

    The market expects that the Fed will announce the tapering of its asset purchases in December this year and to effectively start the process in January 2022. A possible rate hike is seen only in December 2023, and so the short to medium-term focus is on tapering.

    This coming Wednesday, the market participants will focus on how the Fed sees the Delta variant and the possible impact on the economy.

    US Advance GDP

    The US economy is expected to have grown by 8.5% in the second quarter. The report, released Thursday, will show the degree of economic reopening and how the fiscal and monetary stimulus has impacted the recovery.

    The Fed will likely choose to stay deliberately behind the curve. Yet, there is room to surprise markets by, say, announcing the tapering decision at the August Jackson Hole meeting. The only way the Fed will do that would be for inflation to overshoot the target even more.

    Core PCE Price Index

    On Friday, the Core PCE Price Index in the United States is expected at 0.6% MoM, but the bias is that we will see a higher print. Given the sharp rise in inflation lately, which is running at rates not seen since four decades ago, the market expects inflation to keep rising. Supply bottlenecks caused by the economic reopening are the cause for the sharp increase in prices.

    All in all, the week ahead is critical for the USD traders. Now that the ECB decision is behind, the focus will be on the USD, seen as having more room to gain against the euro and the Swiss franc.

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    BTC and XRP – Upward move likely ended



    BTC/USD

    The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 20th of July when it fell down to $29.316 at its lowest point. From there we have seen an increase of 38.7% as it came up to $40,679 at its highest point yesterday. Today the price fell down to $36,500 area and is now moving to the upside again, but the downfall of 10% might be indicative of the completion of the prior upward movement.



    You can see that the price almost reached its most significant resistance zone at around $41,000 but failed to make interaction. The upward move from the 20th of July was impulsive in sections but the wave structure doesn’t imply a five-wave pattern. Instead, we could be looking at an ABC correction to the upside before the next downward move. The upward movement looks completed either way so now at least a retracement would be expected if not a start of a new downtrend.

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    EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyes More Upsides



    EUR/USD formed a support base above 1.1780 and corrected higher. EUR/JPY is also rising and it could gain pace above the 130.00 resistance.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

    • The Euro extended its decline towards the 1.1750 level before recovering higher.
    • There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.1805 on the hourly chart.
    • EUR/JPY climbed higher nicely and it even settled above the 129.50 zone.
    • There is a major contracting triangle forming with support near 129.70 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro extended its decline below 1.1800 against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair remained well bid above the 1.1750 support zone.

    The pair formed a base near 1.1760 and it recently started a decent upward move. It surpassed the 1.1800 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.1805 on the hourly chart.



    The pair traded as high as 1.1841 on FXOpen and it is now correcting gains. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1770 swing low to 1.1841 high.

    The pair is now finding bids near the 1.1810 support zone. The next key support is near the 1.1805 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1770 swing low to 1.1841 high.

    Any more losses might call for a move towards the 1.1780 support. Any more losses might lead EUR/USD towards the 1.1750 support zone. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1830 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.1850 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the 1.1900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1920 level.

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    Bitcoin May Reach ATH



    On July 27, Reuters released a rebuttal from an Amazon spokesman regarding the company’s plans to implement Bitcoin.

    “Notwithstanding our interest in the space, the speculation that has ensued around our specific plans for cryptocurrencies is not true,” the source said.

    On the backdrop of this new turn, the Bitcoin rate fell, but what is important, it didn’t fall lower than the July 26 level, when London’s City AM newspaper cited an unnamed insider saying Amazon had intentions to accept Bitcoin payments until the end of the year.

    The fact that the official clarification did not bring the price back to the starting point suggests a bullish market sentiment.

    Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s Intelligence senior commodity strategist, is of the opinion that BTC quotes are more likely to return to the $60,000 mark than fall to $20,000.



    The price of Bitcoin fluctuates around the psychological level of $40k. The level of $36k — the base of the July 26 large-volume candlestick — is important. As long as the bulls keep the price above this level, the situation looks encouraging.

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    LTC and EOS – Corrective movement seen



    LTC/USD

    The price of Litecoin has been on the rise from the 20th of July when it fell to $104 at its lowest point. From there we have seen an increase of 35.9% measured to its highest point today at $141.83. This last rise was made after a sharp impulsive decline in a slowly moving manner and even though it is still moving to the downside it barely made it past Monday’s high.



    These two signs – slowly moving price after a sharp decline and failure to make a significantly higher high are considered signs of weakness which is why soon a move to the downside would be expected. From the 20th of July have likely seen the completion of the five-wave impulse to Monday’s high. If this is true, then from Monday we have seen the start of the descending move with the rise from Tuesday being its 2nd sub-wave.

    This can be a minor three-wave flat correction with the price continuing its upward trajectory after as it made a slightly higher high compared to Monday’s one. Another possibility could be that this descending move is going to be larger but there aren’t still signs on how it can play out.

    Considering the fact that this move is counted as corrective this structure can be labeled as the A wave from the higher degree ABC count.

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    Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Eye Additional Gains



    Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,820 resistance. Crude oil price is also rising and it is showing positive signs above $70.00.

    Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

    • Gold price started a fresh upward move after forming a base above $1,780 against the US Dollar.
    • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,805 on the hourly chart of gold.
    • Crude oil price also gained pace and it broke the key $70.00 resistance zone.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $72.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.


    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,792 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,800 resistance zone.

    The price even settled above the $1,820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,805 on the hourly chart of gold.



    Finally, the price spiked above the $1,830 resistance and it traded as high as $1,832 on FXOpen. The price is now consolidating gains near $1,828. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,823 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,793 low to $1,832 high.

    The first major support is near the $1,818 level. The main support is now forming near the $1,810 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,793 low to $1,832 high is also near $1,812.

    If there is a downside break, the price could test the $1,790 support. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,832 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,840 level. If the price breaks the $1,840 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,850 zone.

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    GBP/USD Turns Green, USD/CAD Faces Hurdles



    GBP/USD started a fresh increase and it broke the 1.3880 resistance. USD/CAD is recovering, but it is facing hurdles near 1.2520.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

    1. The British Pound started a steady increase above the 1.3850 and 1.3880 resistance levels.
    2. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3875 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    3. USD/CAD started a steady decline below the 1.2550 and 1.2520 support levels.
    4. There was a break above a short-term declining channel with resistance near 1.2455 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis



    After forming a base above the 1.3620 level, the British Pound started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3750 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

    The bulls gained pace above the 1.3850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 1.3950 resistance level. A high was formed near 1.3981 on FXOpen and it is currently correcting lower.

    There was a break below the 1.3950 support level. The pair traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the 1.3843 swing low to 1.3981 high.

    On the downside, the first key support is near the 1.3875 area. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3875 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent move from the 1.3843 swing low to 1.3981 high.

    If there is a break below 1.3875 and 1.3860, the pair could decline towards the 1.3825 support zone. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.3720 support.

    On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3940 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.3980 level. The main resistance is now near the 1.4000 zone, above which the pair is likely to accelerate higher towards the 1.4050 and 1.4100 levels.

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    The US Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations



    The new trading month started with the market participants focusing on Friday’s NFP report. Because the Federal Reserve of the United States has a dual mandate, one that focuses on both price stability and job creation, the way the labor market performs is viewed as decisive for the future path of monetary policy.

    While inflation has reached the Fed’s target, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the labor market. Fed’s definition of full employment leaves room for more strength before the rates could be lifted.

    In the middle of last week, the Fed signaled that it is in no rush to lift the rates. Most likely, it remains intentionally behind the curve, wanting to see more strength in the labor market before acting.

    But inflation and economic growth may trigger action from the Fed sooner than the market expects. We’ve seen the Gross Domestic Product released last week coming out much stronger than the expectations.



    US GDP Grows Much Faster Than Forecasters Expected

    The chart above shows a projection for the US GDP made by various institutions in the last quarter of 2020. All of them, including the FOMC, IMF, and OECD, have underestimated the growth of the US economy.

    As it turned out, the actual growth path out of the economic recession is much steeper, with positive spillover effects for the main US trade partners. Because the United States is the largest economy in the world, a stronger economic recovery there is enough to add one percentage point or more to global growth.

    Before the passage of the America Rescue plan, most forecasters expected that the economy would grow by 3/4%-4.2% in the four quarters of 2021. But the data released last week shows that the economy grows at an annualized rate of 6.4%, much higher than expected.

    The solid growth should support the equity markets and keep the US dollar offered. Because most central banks in the developed world have adopted similar monetary policies, which are still loose, the market is dominated by risk-on/risk-off gyrations. Until we see central banks lifting rates, the chances are that the markets will remain correlated.

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    EUR/USD Eyes More Upsides, USD/CHF Turns Red



    EUR/USD started a decent increase and it broke the 1.1850 resistance zone. USD/CHF is declining and it could extend losses below 0.9020.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

    • The Euro started a fresh increase from well below 1.1800 against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1840 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • USD/CHF failed to stay above the 0.9120 support and extended its decline.
    • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9070 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis


    The Euro formed a support base above 1.1780 and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1820 resistance zone to move into a positive zone.

    The pair even surpassed the 1.1850 resistance zone and it settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. Finally, there was a spike above the 1.1900 level. A high was formed near 1.1908 on FXOpen before the pair started a downside correction.

    There was a break below the 1.1900 and 1.1880 levels. The pair declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1772 swing low to 1.1908 high.

    It is now consolidating above the 1.1850 support zone. The next major support is near the 1.1840 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1772 swing low to 1.1908 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1840 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

    A downside break below the 1.1840 support could start another decline. The next major support could be near the 1.1780 level.

    On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1875 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The main resistance is near 1.1900. If there is an upside break above the 1.1900 resistance zone, the price could rise steadily towards the 1.1950 resistance zone.

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Google Green-lights Crypto Ads



    On August 3, Google rolled out its new policy, allowing advertisers to officially offer their cryptocurrency and wallet exchange services online.

    The latest set of rules is quite tough. To weed out shadow advertising and crypto fraud, Google requires advertisers to register with the Financial Crime Enforcement Network (FinCEN). ICOs, banned from advertising back in 2018, are still a no-go.

    Thanks to this step, the corporation is expected to boost its revenue in the developing sector of digital currencies.

    Meanwhile, Ethereum masterminds have begun a countdown to the Thursday launch of the London update on their website. The update will affect how the network handles transaction fees.

    Ahead of the update, ETHUSD is showing more positive dynamics compared to BTCUSD.



    On July 31, the BTCUSD market had very small trading volumes (see fig. 1) around the 42k level, and the next day, the price showed bearish dynamics with growing volumes. This indicates a weak demand for the coin at a price of 42k and the dominance of supply. The current decline can be stopped by the level of 36k (or something close to it), where, on July 26, the bitcoin price was growing aggressively under pressure from buyers.

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