Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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  1. #171
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    Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen
    Financial Markets Turn Their Attention to Jobs Data



    Financial markets reversed their initial reaction after the latest FOMC Statement and press conference. In the two days that followed the June Fed meeting, the US dollar gained ground significantly against its peers in the developed world.

    As such, the EURUSD fell from above 1.22 to 1.1850, the AUDUSD dropped a couple of hundred of pips, while the GBPUSD was strongly rejected at the 1.42. Also, stocks dropped in the United States and triggered a sharp decline in other equity markets too.

    But it all lasted only two days. The week that just ended has seen the market participants changing their minds. Stocks reversed sharply, the US dollar weakness resumed, and overall risk-on outperformed.

    What changed in the meantime? The answer comes from the Fed. Last Tuesday, Fedís Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, and he downplayed the hawkish statement. Moreover, Fed members held speeches the entire week, reassuring markets that the accommodative measures will remain in place for quite some time despite the hawkish dot plot.

    Furthermore, the Fed still sees inflation as transitory. Food and energy prices are expected to come down past 2021, even though right now inflation exceeds the Fedís target.



    Focus Turns to Job Creation

    Now that the inflation has reached the Fedís target, the only chance the US dollar bulls have is for the job market to show significant improvements. While the strong economic growth and improvements in the labor market should bode well for the currency and the stock market indices, further developments in the labor market will bring the Fed closer to its job creation mandate.

    Therefore, the Fedís hawkish message will have greater credibility if the US economy is able to create more jobs. We will find out as soon as next week the current state of the labor market as the Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month of May is due.

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  2. #172
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    EUR/USD Eyes Fresh Increase, USD/JPY Could Extend Losses



    EUR/USD is likely to start a steady increase if it clears the 1.1920 resistance zone. USD/JPY could extend its decline below the 110.40 support zone in the near term.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

    • The Euro is consolidating losses above the 1.1880 support zone.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • USD/JPY declined below the 110.00 and 110.60 support levels.
    • There is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 110.85 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis



    After a close below 1.2000, the Euro saw bearish moves against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even tested the 1.1850 support zone before starting a decent upward move.

    The pair climbed above the 1.1900 resistance zone. It even broke 1.1950 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair failed to clear the 1.2000 zone. A high was formed near 1.1974 on FXOpen and the pair corrected gains.

    It tested the 1.1880 zone and it is now rising. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1974 high to 1.1877 low.

    It is now facing resistance near the 1.1915 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The next key resistance is near the 1.1925 level.

    The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1974 high to 1.1877 low is also near 1.1925. A close above 1.1915 and 1.1925 could open the doors for a steady increase.

    An intermediate support is near the 1.1880 level. The next major support is near the 1.1850 level, below which the pair could drop towards the 1.1800 support.

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  3. #173
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    Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim Higher



    Gold price started a decent recovery wave from the $1,750 support. Crude oil price is rising and it is now trading nicely above the $74.00 level.

    Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

    • Gold price started a fresh recovery wave after forming a base above $1,750 against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,780 on the hourly chart of gold.
    • Crude oil price climbed higher and it even surged above the $75.00 resistance.
    • There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near $73.65 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.


    Gold Price Technical Analysis


    This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,750 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,760 resistance zone.

    The price even settled above the $1,765 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the price seems to be facing a strong resistance near the $1,780 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,780 on the hourly chart of gold.

    A high is formed near $1,782 on FXOpen and the price is now consolidating gains. An upside break above the trend line could spark more gains above $1,782.

    An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,795 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,800 level. If the price breaks the $1,800 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,840 zone.

    Conversely, the price might resume its decline below $1,775. An initial support is near the $1,765 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $1,750 low to $,1782 high.

    The first major support is near the $1,760 level. The next key support is near the $1,750 level, below which the price might continue to move down towards the $1,720 level in the near term.

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  4. #174
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    GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Strong Recovery



    GBP/USD is slowly recovering, but it must break 1.3850 for more upsides. Similarly, GBP/JPY could gain pace if it clears the 1.3850 resistance zone in the near term.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

    • The British Pound is attempting a decent recovery wave above the 1.3800 zone against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3835 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • GBP/JPY seems to be forming a base above the 153.00 support zone.
    • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 153.40 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis



    In the past few sessions, the British Pound saw bearish moves below the 1.4000 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded below many supports near 1.3900 and 1.3850 to move into a bearish zone.

    The pair even traded below the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.3731 on FXOpen and the pair is currently correcting losses. There was a break above the 1.3780 resistance zone.

    The pair recovered above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3999 high to 1.3731 low. The pair is now trading above the 1.3800 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

    On the upside, an initial resistance on the is near the 1.3835 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3835 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major resistance is near the 1.3850 level.

    The main resistance is near 1.3865 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3999 high to 1.3731 low. The next key resistance is near the 1.3900 level, above which the pair could rise towards the main 1.4000 resistance.

    On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly SMA. If there is a break below the 1.3800 support, the pair could test the 1.3750 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3640 level.

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    Crude Oil Price Diverges from US Dollar Strength



    One of the most interesting divergences in financial markets formed recently. The price of oil remains stubbornly elevated, closing the previous week above $75 per one barrel, despite ongoing dollar strength.

    Since April 2020, the price of oil has come a long way. It dipped below the zero level for the first time ever, as the futures market settled close to -$40 twelve months ago. But from that moment on, it ripped higher, recovering all the pandemic losses and some more.

    Because oil remains a big chunk of energy consumption in the United States and the rest of the world, higher oil prices fuel higher inflation. Higher inflation, on the other hand, pressures central banks to act and raise the interest rates, as most of them have a price stability mandate given by an inflation-targeting framework.



    Commodities vs. Interest Rates

    A classic correlation in financial markets tells us that commodities tend to underperform when interest rates are rising. It is not the case this time.

    While the interest rates are not off their lows, the Federal Reserve of the United States started to talk hawkish. At its last meeting, the Fed signaled more rate hikes in the near future than the market expected, triggering a move higher in the US dollar.

    As such, the EURUSD pair fell from above 1.22 to 1.18, the GBPUSD from 1.42 to 1.38, and the AUDUSD from 0.78 to below 0.75. But the strength in the US dollar did not bring a correction in the price of oil. Just the opposite.

    A couple of things may help explain the divergence. On the one hand, the recent Iranian presidential elections have postponed the likelihood for Iranian oil to hit the market anytime soon. On the other hand, the OPEC+ recent meetings failed to commit new supplies for the second half of the year, despite the fact that demand is forecast to rise by 3 million barrels/day in the second half of the year.

    Hence, the imbalances in supply and demand point to further upside in the price of oil, despite the Fedís hawkishness. Many voices in the market suggest that the Fed will signal the tapering of its asset purchases at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium in August.

    Therefore, until August, the US dollarís strength will likely persist in expectations of the Fedís message. Yet, as long as it remains above $70, the price of oil remains bid too, threatening with a move above $80 and beyond.

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    BTC and XRP Ė Breakout from the range will dictate the next trend



    BTC/USD

    The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 26th of Jun and made it back to the $36,000 area on the 29th. From there we have seen a descending move with the price moving sideways after. Currently, it is being traded at $$33,893 and made a lower high today compared to yesterdayís one and is moving to the downside.



    Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that a triangle is being formed which could be the 2nd sub-wave of the higher degree descending move. Considering that the prior move ended most likely as the ABC correction to the upside with the price falling back inside the territory of the lower range of the 1st wave from the 22nd. this is currently more likely. In this case, the price is to form the 3rd wave from the descending move that started on the 16th of Jun when another three-wave ABC to the upside completed.

    If this is true, then we will see a breakout to the downside below the $31,000 mark, which served as a strong horizontal support level. However, this sideways movement that formed a triangle could be a consolidation range before another move to the upside that is set to break the $36,183 horizontal resistance. This is why the validation will come as a breakout direction from the mentioned triangle and will dictate the next dominant trend.

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    EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Remains At Risk of More Downsides



    EUR/USD started a fresh decline and it settled below 1.1900. EUR/JPY is showing bearish signs and upsides are likely to remain limited above 131.00.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

    • The Euro declined below the 1.1920 and 1.1900 support levels, and tested 1.1800.
    • There was a break below a short-term ascending channel with support near 1.1865 on the hourly chart.
    • EUR/JPY started a major decline after it failed to stay above the 131.50 support.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 131.80 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.2000 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1920 and 1.1900 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

    The pair even settled well below 1.1900 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Recently, there was a break below a short-term ascending channel with support near 1.1865 on the hourly chart.



    A low was formed near 1.1807 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating losses. An immediate resistance is near the 1.1828 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1894 high to 1.1807 low.

    The first major resistance is near the 1.1850 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1894 high to 1.1807 low.

    Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the 1.1900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1950 level. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.1800 level.

    If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.1760 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.1700 region. An intermediate support could be near the 1.1720 level.

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    LTC and EOS Ė Further lows expected



    LTC/USD

    The price of Litecoin reached $148 on the 4th of July which was the same level as on the prior high. From there we have seen the start of a descending move and is currently being traded at $130 and is still in a downward trajectory.



    On the hourly chart, you can see that the price broke out from the ascending support level from the 22nd of June. This is the first signal that the prior recovery ended and now we have seen the start of a descending move of the same degree as the one that lasted from the 22nd of June till the 4th of July.

    July 4th high came up to the descending trendline which is the upper level of the descending triangle which formed from the 23rd of May. As the price found resistance again this validated that the previous recovery was corrective in nature in conjunction with the wave structure. This is why it is counted as the 4th corrective wave with now most likely the 5th one to the downside developing.

    If this is true then we are to see a lower low compared to the one on the 22nd of June when the price of Litecoin fell to $105 area. If the descending triangle is still in play another third interaction with its support level could be seen which brings the price target to $90.

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    AUD/USD and NZD/USD Remain At Risk of More Downsides



    AUD/USD started a fresh decline from well above the 0.7550 level. NZD/USD also declined heavily and it even tested the 0.6920 support zone.

    Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

    • The Aussie Dollar started a major decline after it failed to clear 0.7600 against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7435 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • NZD/USD also started a major decline from well above the 0.7050 level.
    • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6975 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.


    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    After struggling to clear the 0.7600 resistance, the Aussie Dollar started a major decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7550 and 0.7520 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

    The pair even broke the 0.7480 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It spiked below 0.7420 and traded as low as 0.7409 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating losses above the 0.7400 level.



    An immediate resistance is near the 0.7430 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7533 swing high to 0.7409 low. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7435 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

    The next major resistance is near the 0.7465 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7533 swing high to 0.7409 low is also near the 0.7470 level.

    To move into a positive zone, the pair must settle above 0.7470 and the 50 hourly SMA. An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7410 level. The next major support is near the 0.7400 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7400 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7350 level.

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  10. #180
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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    GBP/USD Recovers Ground, USD/CAD is Facing Uphill Task


    GBP/USD started a decent recovery wave from the 1.3750 support zone. USD/CAD must clear the 1.2500 resistance zone to continue higher in the near term.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

    • The British Pound started a fresh increase from the 1.3750 support zone.
    • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3775 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • USD/CAD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2450 and 1.2500 resistance levels.
    • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2480 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    The British Pound formed a strong support base above the 1.3750 level against the US Dollar. As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a decent increase and it broke many hurdles near 1.3800.



    There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3775 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair gained pace above the 1.3820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

    The pair even spiked above the 1.3900 resistance zone. A high is formed near 1.3909 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3875 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3755 swing low to 1.3909 high.

    The main support is now forming near the 1.3830 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3755 swing low to 1.3909 high.

    On the upside, the pair must settle above the 1.3900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.3940 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.4000 barrier in the near term. An intermediate resistance could be 1.3980.

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