Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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    Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen
    GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Fresh Increase



    GBP/USD found support near 1.3825 and it is now showing positive signs. GBP/JPY is stable above 149.40 and it is now facing hurdles near 150.00.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

    • The British Pound tested the 1.3825 support zone and it is now recovering against the US Dollar.
    • There was a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • GBP/JPY is holding the main 149.40 and 149.20 support levels.
    • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 149.65 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    This past week, the British Pound saw a steady decline below the 1.3950 support zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3880 support level.

    However, the pair found support near the 1.3825 zone. A low was formed near 1.3823 on FXOpen and the pair recently started a fresh increase. It broke the 1.3850 and 1.3880 resistance levels.



    There was also a break above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. Moreover, there was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3949 swing high to 1.3823 low.

    The pair is now trading nicely above the 1.3750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.3949 swing high to 1.3823 low.

    If there is a clear upside break above the 1.3900 and 1.3920 levels, there are chances of more upsides. In the stated case, the pair is likely to accelerate higher towards the 1.4000 resistance.

    If there is a fresh decline, the previous resistance near 1.3880 or the 50 hourly simple moving average might provide support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3850 level.

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    GDP Growth Follows Success In Vaccination Efforts



    The week ahead is marked by two important central banks delivering their monetary policy statements – the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve in the United States. While the two events are crucial for Japanese yen and U.S. dollar traders, the market is also interested in what the GDP data in the United States and Canada will reveal.

    Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world, the GDP or Gross Domestic Product fell sharply in all countries. For the first time, the entire world was in an economic recession.

    Last November, the world found out for the first time that vaccines have promising results. Since that moment, a race against the clock started, with the price being not only the defeat of the virus but also a quick economic recovery.

    Chinese GDP Growth Signals Strong Bounce in Developed Economies Too

    Unfortunately, there are not enough vaccines for everybody at this point, but the situation gets better by the day. The more time passes, the more vaccines will be delivered throughout the world, and the faster the economic recovery will be.

    However, because of the inequalities in vaccine deliveries, some countries will experience economic growth faster and stronger than others. Hence, their currencies will likely benefit from it, as well as the stock market.

    The Chinese GDP grew by over 18% in the first quarter of the year, when compared to the same quarter a year ago. The bounce was much stronger than expected, and the chances are that the U.S. economic growth will also exceed expectations.

    Next Thursday, the advanced GDP in the United States is expected to show that the U.S. economy grew by 6.5% in the first quarter of the year. Judging by how the Chinese economy performed, the chances are that the U.S. economy will also beat expectations.

    One day earlier, Jerome Powell will have a hard time explaining to market participants why the Fed is not preparing to taper its asset purchases. As the chart above shows, America is one of the nations that lead in the vaccination race, and so the economic recovery is much stronger – why the need for easing?

    To sum up, the bigger the economic expansion, the more difficult for the Fed to keep its policy unchanged. The tapering may be closer than market participants expect.

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    BTC and XRP – Strong bullish momentum seen



    BTC/USD

    The price of Bitcoin has been decreasing from the 14th of April when it reached $64,735 at its highest point. From there we have seen a decline of 27.56% measured to its lowest point made on the 25th which was at $46,896. A recovery of 16.8% followed as the price came up to $55,000 area on its highest point of the week so far. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory.



    On the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a three-wave decrease from the 14th of April which was most likely an WXY correction of the higher degree count. It ended with a double bottom with an impulsive rise that followed.

    This could be an early indication that the price decrease ended and that we are seeing the development of the next starting impulse. However, we could have seen another corrective ABC to the upside from the 23rd which would be the corrective WXY continuation wave leading into a lower low.

    We are now seeing the price looking for support above the significant horizontal support at $53,369 with a minor triangle forming, so from its breakout direction, we are to see which scenario gets validated.

    If we see a breakout to the upside it could mean that the starting impulse is on the move, but if the price starting impulsively moving to the downside it could be an indication that the corrective ABC to the upside ended.

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    EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Remains Well Supported



    EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2000 and 1.2050 resistance levels. EUR/JPY also gained momentum and it is now trading well above 130.00.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

    • The Euro formed a base above 1.2000 and started a fresh increase above 1.2050.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2075 on the hourly chart.
    • EUR/JPY is also trading in a positive zone above the 131.00 zone.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 131.25 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    There was a steady increase in the Euro started above the 1.1950 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.2000 and 1.2050 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

    There was also a break above the 1.2100 zone and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.2116 on FXOpen before there was a downside correction.



    The pair traded as low as 1.2056 and it is now attempting a fresh increase. There was already a spike above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2116 high to 1.2056 low. However, the pair is struggling to settle above the 1.2085 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

    The next major resistance is near the 1.2095 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2116 high to 1.2056 low.

    Any more gains could set the pace for a fresh high above the 1.2116 level in the near term. The next key resistance could be near the 1.2140 level. On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2075 on the hourly chart.

    If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.2050 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.2000 support zone in the near term.

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    LTC and EOS – Breakout seen but would it be confirmed?



    LTC/USD

    The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since the 26th of April when it fell down to $211. From there we have seen an increase of 26.4% as it came up to $266.6 at its highest point. It started moving sideways from yesterday’s high and is currently sitting slightly lower but is in an upward trajectory overall.



    On the hourly chart, we can see that the price has started breakout out from the symmetrical triangle in which it was since yesterday’s high. This could be an early indication that the price is now headed further up. However, a confirmation is needed which could come as the hourly candle close above the territory of the symmetrical triangle and then a successful retest of its resistance for support

    The previous descending move has definitely ended as a five-wave correction however it is still unclear how the current rise would end and which type of structure it could form. There are three possible scenarios in play. The first being that we are seeing the starting five-wave impulse in which case its third sub-waves 1st wave has developed. The next one is slightly negative and considered the rise from the 26th as the ABC correction with more upside potential for the C wave. The third one is the most negative one and implies that the ABC correction to the upside already ended in which case we are now seeing the start of the next descending move with the symmetrical triangle being its 2nd sub-wave.

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    Gold Price Remains At Risk, Oil Price Extends Rally



    Gold price failed to clear the $1,800 resistance zone and started a fresh decline. Crude oil price is rising and it is showing a lot of positive signs above $64.50.

    Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

    • Gold price failed to clear the $1,790 and $1,800 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,788 on the hourly chart of gold.
    • Crude oil price climbed higher nicely and it even broke the $65.00 resistance zone.
    • There is a crucial bullish trend line forming with support near $64.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.


    Gold Price Technical Analysis



    Earlier this week, gold price climbed higher above the $1,780 resistance against the US Dollar. However, it failed to clear the $1,790 and $1,800 resistance levels.

    A high was formed near $1,789 on FXOpen before the price started a fresh decline. There was a break below the $1,780 and $1,765 support levels. The price even settled below the $1,780 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

    A low was formed near $1,756 before the price recovered. It climbed above the $1,765 level. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,789 high to $1,756 low.

    However, the price failed to clear the $1,780 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It also struggled near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,789 high to $1,756 low.

    Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,788 on the hourly chart of gold. The price must clear the $1,780 resistance and the trend line to start a strong increase in the coming sessions.

    If not, there is a risk of another decline below the $1,760 level. The first key support is near the $1,755 and $1,750 levels. Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,720 support.

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    GBP/USD Turns Red, EUR/GBP Eyes More Upsides



    GBP/USD failed to test 1.4000 and started a fresh decline. EUR/GBP is showing positive signs and it is trading nicely above the 0.8675 support zone.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

    • The British Pound topped near the 1.3975 zone and started a fresh decline.
    • There was a break below a key contracting triangle with support near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • EUR/GBP started a fresh increase and it settled above the 0.8650 pivot level.
    • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8695 on the hourly chart.


    GBP/USD Technical Analysis



    After a steady increase above the 1.3900 level, the British Pound faced sellers against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair failed to test the 1.4000 resistance zone and started a fresh decline.

    A high was formed at 1.3976 on FXOpen before the pair declined. It broke the 1.3920 and 1.3900 support levels. There was also a break below a key contracting triangle with support near 1.3885 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

    The pair settled well below the 1.3850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.3801 and it is now attempting an upside correction.

    An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3840 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3976 high to 1.3801 low. The first major resistance is near the 1.3860 level.

    The next major resistance is near the 1.3885 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3976 high to 1.3801 low is also near 1.3885. A successful close above 1.3850 and a follow up move above 1.3885 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4000 resistance.

    Conversely, there is a risk of a fresh decline towards the 1.3800 support level. The next major support is near the 1.3780 level. Any more losses could initiate a drop towards the 1.3720 support zone.

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    Weak Dollar Despite Strong U.S. Economic Performance



    The U.S. economy grew at 6.4% in the first quarter of the year, and it is in line to exceed the pre-pandemic growth level. The good news goes even further, as the growth in the first quarter exceeds the previous quarter’s growth of 4.3%.

    However, the U.S. dollar did not rise on the news. In fact, for the entire month of April, the dollar traded with an offered tone. For instance, with the exception of the last trading day of the month, the EURUSD moved only higher, from 1.17 to over 1.21 in less than thirty days.


    Fed Keeps the Accommodative Measures

    One day before the GDP release, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) announced that it keeps the monetary policy accommodative despite the remarkable economic performance. As such, the Fed continues to buy $120 billion worth of assets every month, putting pressure on the dollar.

    The households’ savings rate at the end of the first quarter was 21%, up from 13% in the last quarter of 2021. The uncertainty generated by the pandemic continues, as households keep stashing funds and postpone consumption.

    However, the more people get a vaccine, the faster the U.S. economy will come back to normality. As such, the savings rate is expected to decline in the second quarter of the year, pushing the GDP even higher.


    It all comes down to the stimulus checks received by households. As the chart above shows, the stimulus checks played an important role during the pandemic, but yet the U.S. consumer is not spending it entirely, as suggested by the high savings rate.

    Moving forward, the trading month starts strongly with the Non-Farm Payrolls release scheduled next Friday. The market expects 975k new jobs to have been created in April and that the Unemployment Rate will decline to 5.7% from the previous 6%. However, the risk is that the data will be much better than expected, as suggested by the steady economic growth seen in the first quarter.

    As for the dollar, at one point, it should start reflecting the economic reality. Moreover, if the NFP exceeds expectations, the Fed will have a hard time keeping its current monetary policy stance and will be forced to announce the tapering of its asset purchases sooner than expected.

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    BTC and XRP – Retracement seen but further upside expected



    BTC/USD

    The price of Bitcoin has been on a decline from yesterday’s high at $59,000 and has made a 6.69% decrease measured to its lowest point today at $55.084. Now it is sitting slightly higher but is again looking like its struggling to keep up the recovery.



    On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Bitcoin was on the rise since the 26th of April when an ascending triangle was made. Yesterday, we saw a breakout to the downside from the triangles support, which could imply that this ascending move ended as the five-wave increase. If this is true then the five-wave move was most likely a leading diagonal from the next impulsive move to the upside as the previous correction of the higher degree ended.

    Now we could be seeing the 2nd sub-wave of the next move to the upside which would retrace the price of Bitcoin to around $53,000 area most optimally where the 0.5 Fibonacci level is. This Fib level is standing in the vicinity of the significant horizontal support at $53,300 which might hold the price, but we could see the price going further down to the $51,221 area where the next one is.

    After this retracement ends, according to the primary count, we are to see further uptrend continuation and new highs for Bitcoin.

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    EUR/USD is Facing Hurdles, USD/JPY Remains Elevated



    EUR/USD failed to stay above the 1.2100 zone and corrected lower. USD/JPY is trading in a positive zone above 109.00 and it is now approaching a major breakout.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

    • The Euro started a fresh decline from well above the 1.2100 pivot level.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2040 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • USD/JPY started a decent increase above the 108.50 and 109.00 resistance levels.
    • There is a major breakout pattern forming with resistance near 109.38 on the hourly chart.


    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    After a spike above the 1.2125 level, the Euro faced a fresh round of selling against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair started a fresh decline below the 1.2100 pivot level.

    The pair broke a few key supports near 1.2080 and 1.2050. It even spiked below the 1.2000 level and settled well below the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.1999 on FXOpen and the pair is correcting higher.



    There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2075 high to 1.1999 low. The first major resistance on the upside is near the 1.2035 level.

    There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2040 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2075 high to 1.1999 low.

    The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the 1.2035 zone to act as a hurdle. If there is an upside break above the 50 hourly simple moving average and the trend line, the pair could rise further towards the 1.2100 pivot level.

    If not, there is a risk of more downsides below 1.2010. The main support is near 1.2000. A close below 1.2000 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.1920 support.

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