Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
    May 07 | USD / CHF technical analysis: H4 chart, Pivot levels

    The US dollar against the Swiss franc at today's trading has rewritten the minimum since February 26 at around 0.9057.

    Bouncing off the lows, the USD / CHF price is correcting towards the daily pivot level.

    The medium-term trend is directed downwards, therefore, upon completion of the correction, it is more likely that a further decline can be predicted, but, most likely, this will happen already next week.

    Daily Pivot - 0.9094;
    Daily Resistance 1 - 0.9119, DR2 - 0.9169, DR3 - 0.9194;
    Daily Support 1 - 0.9044, DS2 - 0.9019, DS3 - 0.8968.

    Weekly Pivot - 0.9129;
    Weekly Resistance 1 - 0.9180, WR2 - 0.9231, WR3 - 0.9281;
    Weekly Support 1 - 0.9078, WS2 - 0.9028, WS3 - 0.8977.

    Monthly Pivot - 0.9226.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    EUR/USD. May 11, 2021 | Dollar continues to decline after Friday's Payrolls report

    The US dollar accelerated its decline after the release of Friday's Non-farm Payrolls report, according to which the number of new jobs created was almost 25% lower than forecasted – 266 thousand against 1 million. The unemployment rate rose from 6% to 6.1%. The latest statistics turned out to be an unexpected shock for market participants, and the quotes of the EUR/USD pair rose to the level of 1.2180.

    In total, during the pandemic, the American economy lost 22 million jobs, and about 8 million are still not restored.

    Today the pair continues to fluctuate slightly below the 1.22 level. The economic calendar is of little interest. All market participants' attention is directed to the upcoming statistics: on Wednesday the US will publish statistics on consumer prices, on Friday – on retail sales.

    The oil market on May 11, 2021

    Brent quotes on Tuesday decline from the area of ​​local highs above $69 per barrel. The current price of the asset is $67.50 per barrel.

    Black gold is declining amid the gradual reopening of the Colonial Pipeline Co. pipeline system, which suspended operations last Friday due to a hacker attack. This pipeline system is the main source of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel supplies to the US East Coast.

    The rapid spread of the coronavirus in India continues to put additional pressure on investor sentiment. The government of the country came face to face with the need to introduce a harsh isolation regime.

    In the near future, oil prices can only be supported by data on crude oil reserves in the United States. Analysts expect that statistics from the Ministry of Energy (May 12) will show a decrease in reserves by 2.3 million barrels per week. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by about 400,000 barrels. Today you should pay attention to the monthly OPEC report, which will include data on production in April.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    EUR/USD. May 12, 2021 | Euro is correcting after strong growth

    The EUR/USD pair declines slightly on Wednesday after a sharp rise to the level of 1.2180. The current quotation of the asset is 1.2125.

    The statistics from the eurozone published the day before, as a whole, pleased investors: the index of sentiment in German business circles in May rose to 84.4 points from the previous 70.7. The forecast assumed a rise to 72.0 points. The same indicator for the entire euro area soared to the level of 84.0 points from the previous 66.3. Such data speaks about the attenuation of the third wave of coronavirus in Europe and has a positive effect on business prospects.

    Today you should pay attention to the report on the volume of industrial production in the eurozone for March. The indicator came out worse than expected, rising only 0.1% against expectations of 0.7% growth.

    In the US, the most anticipated indicator of the week will be published – the consumer price index for April. Median forecasts assume only 0.2% MoM gain is possible after the 0.6% rise in March. If the data is in line with expectations, the dollar will have a chance to strengthen and return to the area below 1.21.

    GBP/USD. May 12, 2021 | The pound sterling breaks all records

    The pound sterling remains the leader of the foreign exchange market, demonstrating a sharp rise to 1.4170, which was the highest since the end of February. In general, the pair is approaching the level of 1.42 – the last time such values ​​of the British currency rate were recorded in April 2018.

    The pound received strong support on the results of the regional elections. Scottish National Party SNP won 64 seats in the Scottish Parliament, one less for the majority. Analysts note that calls for a referendum on independence will continue, but this is unlikely to lead to increased political risks for the pound sterling.

    Additional positive was brought by the report from the BRC chain: the volume of retail sales in April on an annualized basis increased by 39.6% after increasing by 20.3% a month earlier.

    A busy news day awaits the UK today. The country's GDP contracted by 1.5% on a quarterly basis (which turned out to be better than the forecast of -1.6%). Industrial production statistics in March showed an increase in the indicator by 1.8% (against the forecast of growth by 1%). The data on the trade balance reflected a decrease of 6.55 billion.

    It can be said that the strong statistics were the result of successful mass vaccinations and the relaxation of quarantines.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    EUR/USD. May 13, 2021 | Dollar remains strong after inflation data

    The EUR/USD pair has weakened noticeably after the release of yesterday's statistics on inflation in the US. The current quote for the pair is 1.2050. According to the US Department of Labor, in April, consumer prices rose at their most in almost 12 years due to increased demand amid the opening of the economy. Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the highest since April 1982. Annualized inflation rose to 4.2%, the highest since 2008.

    There is a logical reason for this rise in prices: as the American economy recovers, the consumer is faced with a noticeably reduced supply, which pushes prices up.

    Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by macroeconomic reports from the eurozone. According to Eurostat, industrial production in the region rose 0.1% in March, after falling 1.2% a month earlier. Experts forecast an increase of 0.7%. On an annualized basis, the indicator grew by 10.9% against the forecast of 11.6%.

    Today we should pay attention to the report on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits and the producer price index in the United States.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    GBP/USD. May 17, 2021 | Sterling weakly declines after rising to 1.41

    The British pound suspended its gains in the 1.4100 area and the GBP/USD pair bounced back to 1.4090. The pound is under pressure from concerns about new coronavirus outbreaks in the country. On Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the weakening of the lockdown is in question due to the risk of the spread of the Indian strain of the coronavirus.

    Earlier, the dynamics of the dollar was influenced by economic reports from the University of Michigan: the consumer expectations index in May fell from 82.7 to 77.6 points, while the forecast assumed an increase to 85 points. The consumer sentiment index was 82.8 points against the forecast of 90.4 points. The index of current conditions fell from 97.2 to 90.8 points, experts had expected an increase to 99.6 points.

    Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. Only the statements of the Bank of England and FOMC representatives can arouse interest.

    The RSI indicator weakly declines from the neutral zone, which indicates further moderate weakening of the pound sterling.

    GBP/USD. May 14, 2021 | Sterling rises moderately towards 1.4100

    The British currency continues to show signs of strengthening against the US dollar, recovering from 1.40 to 1.41. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.4080.

    The economic calendar for the UK is empty today, all investors' attention will be drawn to the statistics from the US. In particular, we are waiting for a report on retail sales, data on imports and exports, as well as on industrial production in April. Of particular interest will be the consumer expectations and sentiment index from the University of Michigan in May.

    In general, the pound sterling retains potential for growth, as the growth of the UK economy in March was better than forecasted: the economy grew by 2.1% compared to the previous month, while growth was expected by 1.5%.

    Moreover, yesterday the chief economist of the Bank of England Andrew Haldane said that inflation in the UK will exceed 2% by the end of 2021. He also noted that it is quite possible to expect double-digit GDP growth over the year.

    During the day, market participants will analyze statistics from the US, which will allow the GBP/USD pair to determine the direction of movement before the weekend.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Brent. 18.05 | Oil market reached new highs

    The oil market again demonstrates significant growth: Brent quotes rose today to $70 per barrel.

    The prices for «black gold» are supported by the improved forecasts for the demand for energy resources, despite the rather weak statistics from the USA and China. For example, in the Celestial Empire, the report on retail sales showed an increase of 17.7%, which is significantly worse than the expected 24.9%.

    Investors are quite optimistic, expecting that demand this year will still reach its peaks in the second half of the year. Similar forecasts were presented to OPEC and the International Energy Agency. It should be noted that analysts ignored the difficult epidemiological situation in India, the world's third largest oil importer.

    In addition to fundamental factors, Brent quotes are supported by the decline in the US dollar. Greenback is being sold amid the Fed's wait-and-see attitude, as well as weak US macroeconomic reporting. Recent reports indicate that the US economy will not recover as fast as previous forecasts suggested.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Brent. May 19, 2021 | Oil declines after local highs

    Oil prices are falling for the second day in a row amid concerns about lower demand due to a new wave of coronavirus in Asia. Additional pressure on Brent quotes is exerted by fears that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates due to rising inflation, which may limit further economic growth.

    On Wednesday, the price of «black gold» fell to $67.38 per barrel, although on Monday Brent was trading above $70. This growth was driven by optimism about the lifting of coronavirus restrictions in the United States and Europe. However, it did not last long as India, Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand reported a sharp spike in Covid cases.

    Moreover, the uncertainty due to inflation has also forced investors to withdraw from riskier assets such as oil. Analysts note that the US Federal Reserve may raise rates due to fears of inflation, thereby affecting growth prospects and demand for commodities.

    A report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was released yesterday, according to which US oil inventories rose by 620 thousand barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell sharply last week. Today investors are awaiting the release of similar data on reserves from the US Energy Information Administration.

    GBP/USD. May 19, 2021 | Sterling is correcting after strong growth

    Yesterday was marked by a sharp rise in the pound sterling to the level of 1.4220. However, today the GBP/USD pair started to decline to the level of 1.4160.

    The British currency received support amid the improvement in the epidemiological situation in the UK, where quarantine restrictions have been significantly eased since May 17. An additional positive was brought by economic statistics, according to which, in April, the consumer price index rose by 0.6%, which coincided with expectations, and the producer purchase price index rose by 1.2%, which turned out to be better than the 1.1% forecast.

    At the same time, the pressure on the dollar was exerted yesterday by data on construction in the United States: the number of permits for building houses issued in April amounted to 1.76 million, while expectations were 1.77 million.

    Today, the American currency is strengthening as part of the correction and in anticipation of the evening publication of the FOMC minutes. The pound sterling still has strong upside potential as economic data show a strengthening UK economy: the UK labor market is on the rise – 84,000 new jobs were created in March, benefits applications fell by 15,000 and unemployment fell from 4.9% to 4.8%.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    EUR/USD. May 20, 2021 | Euro is recovering after yesterday's drawdown

    The EUR/USD pair is recovering its positions on Thursday after yesterday's drawdown to the level of 1.2150. The current quote for the pair is 1.2190.

    Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve released the minutes of the last meeting. The document says that the US economy is still very far from the regulator's goals, and supply problems continue to impede its recovery. At the same time, it was noted that economic activity has nevertheless increased sharply recently.

    Regarding the state of the labor market, the Federal Reserve is confident that the growth rates of employment in certain sectors have become lower than they were before. The global outlook for inflation has not changed, and core inflation remains weak and insignificant.

    The US dollar weakened somewhat after the publication of the minutes, as the regulator did not clearly indicate its position on stimulating and supporting the economy. As a result, there were rumors in the market that a strong labor market report for May could be a signal for a $ 120 billion reduction in the asset purchase program in June.

    At the same time, the European currency is supported by the improved prospects for the economic recovery of the eurozone. If the situation continues to improve, the ECB may consider the possibility of reducing the volume of the quantitative easing program at the end of this year.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    EUR/USD. May 24, 2021 | The pair is in the range of 1.2150-1.2250

    At the beginning of the new trading week, the euro continues to trade in the range of 1.2150-1.2250. The current price of the EUR/USD pair is 1.2200.

    The European currency was supported by the publication of the composite index of business activity (PMI) in industry and services of 19 eurozone countries in May. According to preliminary estimates, the indicator rose to 56.9 points in May from 53.8 points in April. At the same time, analysts had expected the indicator to rise to 55.1 points. Such figures became a record for three years and three months.

    The index of business activity in the service sector of the euro zone in May, according to preliminary estimates, rose to 55.1 points against 50.5 points in April. Experts predicted growth to 52.3 points.

    It is worth noting that many financial institutions are beginning to revise their forecasts for the euro area. For example, the Bundesbank believes that Germany will reach pre-pandemic levels in the fall of this year, and consumer prices may rise by 4%.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    EUR/USD. May 25, 2021 | Euro is correcting after strong growth

    The euro rate accelerated its growth on Tuesday, breaking through the upper boundary of the sideways trend 1.2150-1.2250. The European currency continues to be supported by the optimism of investors regarding the imminent recovery of global economies. And against this background, the demand for the «safe» dollar is declining, which is putting strong pressure on the American currency.

    Additional support for the euro was provided by economic data from Germany. According to the final estimate of the country's Federal Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the first quarter of 2021 declined by 1.8% against a projected decline of 1.7%. On an annualized basis, the GDP of Europe's largest economy fell 3.4%, while experts had expected a decline of 3.3%.

    The index of business expectations in Germany in May rose to 102.9 points (from 99.2), the forecast assumed the indicator at the level of 101.4 points. The business climate index was 99.2 points (forecast – 98.2 points).

    However, the RSI indicator bounced off the resistance area, which signals a weakening of the euro and the return of the EUR/USD pair to the range of 1.2150-1.2250.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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