Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-23-2016, 09:41 AM

Sterling continued its low trajectory on Wednesday amidst negative economic data, terrorism attacks in Europe, and rising worry surrounding the Brexit.

The Bank of England announced a stagnant 0.3 percent inflation rate, missing the projected 0.4 percent rise. The news was paired with a looming interest rate cut, which has been standing at 0.5 percent since 2009. The nearest rate increase is in another three years, while the US is expecting at least two rate hikes this year, pushing the dollar upward.

UK?s controversial 2016 budget was also bad news for the ailing pound. Many were disappointed with budget cuts, with Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Duncan Smith resigning on Friday over lower disability benefits.

The pound fell further from its 1.4251 after the inflation announcement.

The first support occurred at 1.4094 and 1.4024 subsequently. The first resistance was at 1.4304 and 1.4375 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at positive location. The price is falling.

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**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-28-2016, 03:50 AM

The efficacy of the stimulus measures held by the European Central Bank is drawing near its boundary as stated by the president of the Netherlands Bank, Klaas Knot. He thinks that the ECB monetary policy instruments have been worn out.

The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

The price is along the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a descending motion creating a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

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**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-28-2016, 11:01 AM

The British pound slightly recovered from last week?s trading as it hit a daily high at 1.4180, taking advantage of the dollar?s respite. However, the pound?s strength is expected to be short-lived as the uncertainty of the Brexit looms over the market.

A bearish outlook on the pound remains leading to the EU referendum in June. On the other end, a stronger dollar is anticipated in the following days as investors remain hopeful for a rate hike in the near future based on Fed officials? vague remarks.

The first support occurred at 1.4098 and 1.4028 subsequently. The first resistance was at 1.4149 and 1.4220 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a negative location. The price is falling.

GBPUSDH428.jpg

**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-29-2016, 04:28 AM

The dollar managed to recover most of its losses which is an aftermath of the Federal Reserve meeting, and is being in demand continuously. In the midst of the Catholic Easter celebration, the traders' activity was inferior. We are hoping that today the volatility shall resume as the traders' return from their holidays' activities.

The Gross Domestic Product forecast of the US is somewhat strong and is quite surprising which of course sustained the dollar as well. The GDP was altered upwards. In the fourth quarter, the US economy increased by 1.4% contrary to the previous estimate of +1.0% and an increase of 2% in the third quarter. In favor of an early rate hike, these figures became another cause of disagreement which was consistently uttered by the Fed's representative in the past week wherein it also turned out to be supporting the demand for the dollar. The US has issued the Pending Home Sales for February wherein the data occurs at the level of 3,5% and the report was 1.0%. The EUR/USD pair slightly increase by the end of the trades on Monday.

The GBP/USD was still weak and continuously move down in the midst of concerns regarding the effect of Brexit. High risks in Brexit effect enkindled growth in volatility for the pound and the pair. The GBP/USD grew by the end of the trades.

In favor of the United States, the inflation forecast for February between Japan and US modified their differential of CPI indicators. In January, the spread was 0.1% and grew by 0.43% in the last month of winter. The USD/JPY pair reduced by the end of the trades.

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**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-29-2016, 09:43 AM

The Australian dollar edged up in today?s trading after mixed US data weighed down the dollar.

The US? core PCE in February posted a dismal growth of 0.1 percent, missing the 0.2 percent forecast. The core PCE price index also performed below expectations as it rose annually by 1.7 percent. Meanwhile, consumer spending was went up by 0.1 percent, meeting government forecasts.

The US economy experienced a 1.4 percent growth in Q4, topping a 1.0 percent forecast, which carried the dollar slightly.

The Aussie dollar, which has risen by about 3.7 percent this year, is expected to continue a slow climb as talks of the currency?s overvaluation is still in the air. Investors are still waiting if the RBA will cut interest rates to keep it from further ascent.

A speech by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen later today may sway investors to buy back the dollars.

The pair is now facing a ceiling at 0.7572 and can be seen testing 0.76.

The first support was at 0.7519 and 0.7481 subsequently. The first resistance was 0.7585 and 0.7623 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a negative location. The price is falling.

AUDUSDH429.jpg

**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-29-2016, 10:17 AM

Uncertainty on the Brexit was offset by the US? less than impressive consumer spending, prompting the Euro?s upturn earlier today.

However, the dollar regained its footing as buyers wait for Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen?s announcement that will hopefully clear up if Fed will move to increase the benchmark rate.

The pair hit a daily high of 1.1219, but pulled back to 1.1200, eliciting a bearish sentiment from investors.

The first support was at 1.1175 and 1.1119, subsequently, while the first resistance was at 1.1243 and 1.1299 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is falling.

EURUSDH429.jpg

**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-30-2016, 07:14 AM

The extensive demand for the dollar reinforced the pound/dollar pair. The Manufacturing PMI will be issued on Friday and so we propose to focus on it as well as we wait for Bank of England Chairman Mark Carney's performance on Thursday.

The price's first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. Meanwhile, the first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A non-confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display an ascending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending motion will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is increasing.

GBPUSDH430.jpg

**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-31-2016, 06:13 AM

The dollar experienced remarkable losses. The tremendous tender eloquence of the Fed oppressed the US currency. The external and internal risks has given emphasis by the regulator and stated that there would be a probable policy easing if needed. The statement of the regulator implies an essential enfeeblement of the dollar in coordination with its viable return to the economy stimulation. The ADP for March was issued on Wednesday wherein the report was 194,000 while the previous value was 214,000. The data occurred at the level of 200,000.

Disregarding the growth of risk appetite is not possible which is an aftermath of the growing long positions and high-yield cross-rates of the traders which gave pressure to the euro as a funding currency. The EUR/USD pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

The debt market dynamics correspond to the British currency rectification. In relative with their counterparts, United States and Germany, the 10 years UK government bonds yields decreased which also caused to diminished the appeal of the British assets. On Thursday, the performance of the Bank of England will be the center of attraction. The GBP/USD pair reduced by the end of the trades.

The United States and Japan's yields differential on government bonds reduced from November to February. In Japan, the Retail Trade revenue diminished by 5.4%. The 0% retail sales differential indicator of the Japan and US at the end of January managed to extend as far as level of 2.2% in favor of the latter in February. The USD/JPY pair slightly grew by the end of the trades.

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**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-31-2016, 07:21 AM

The Japanese Yen expanded in today?s early trading as Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen?s dovish remarks on Tuesday prompted investors to sell their greenbacks. The currency pair hit a daily low of 112.25.

Yellen?s speech on Tuesday to the Economic Club of New York said that caution must be exercised in hiking interest rates, lessening the possibility of a rate increase during Fed?s upcoming meeting in April. However, Yellen is optimistic on the growth of the US economy.

The dollar experienced a rally in the past weeks due to other Fed officials? hawkish statements that implied they are eyeing to raise the numbers.

The speculation of a rate increase is now expected in Fed?s next meeting in June.

Yellen?s announcement put the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a more difficult position, which is battling stagnant deflation amidst strong currency. BOJ?s negative interest rates set in January did very little to help the situation.

Eyes are now on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to see what monetary tools he will use to ease the problem. The BOJ may be forced to further lower the interest rates during its policy meeting in April.

The first support was at 111.82 and 111.26 subsequently. The first resistance was at 112.62 and 113.19 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is falling.

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**Andrea ForexMart** · 03-31-2016, 10:31 AM

The Australian dollar is riding the bulls while the greenback is too weak to follow owing to the sell-off after Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen?s speech on Tuesday. In fact, the Aussie dollar is gaining too much for the Reserve Bank of Australia?s (RBA) liking.

AUD has now reached the level of 0.77, its highest in two weeks. Investors are selling their dollars and opting for Aussie ones as the latter has a better yield. However, questions are aloft on the RBA?s next move over the currency?s overvaluation.

RBA officials had previously said that the Aussie dollar is ?getting ahead of itself? without significant signs of slowing down. Banks are also aiming for a lower domestic currency to successfully transition to a services-oriented economy from a mining-oriented one.

Yellen disappointed many central banks including the RBA after saying on Tuesday that tightening monetary policy should be approached with caution, slashing the hopes of many that they will see a rate hike in its policy meeting in late April.

Earlier this month, the RBA was forced to revise Aussie dollar expectations by the end of the year from US70? to US75?. Furthermore, the current inflation is at 1.7 percent, missing the bank?s target of 2 to 3 percent.

If the RBA is to take a hawkish stance during its policy meeting on Tuesday, only two course of actions are in the horizon: to jawbone the Australian dollar or to cut bank rates, which now stand at a record low of 2 percent.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 23, 2016

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: March 28

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 28, 2016

Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2016

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: March 29, 2016

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: March 29, 2016

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 30, 2016

Fundamental Analysis: March 31, 2016

Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 31, 2016

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: March 31, 2016

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