Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Page 124 of 124 FirstFirst ... 2474114122123124
Results 1,231 to 1,235 of 1235

Thread: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

  1. #1231
    Senior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    977
    Thanked: 0

    Default

    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
    Rally in euro and pound may end quickly

    The unexpected crisis in the US banking sector has crushed all hopes for a new acceleration in the pace of interest rate hikes. Goldman Sachs economists said they no longer see the Fed raising rates next week, even after US authorities took steps to contain the crisis caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. This caused two-year Treasury bond yields to fall by 18 basis points to 4.34%, reaching its sharpest three-day drop since October 1987. Expectations of a less aggressive policy stance and sharp demand for German bonds also affected the euro.

    Most likely, Fed officials will announce a pause in interest rate hikes this week ahead of their meeting on March 21-22. Economists were expecting to see around 0.25% to 0.5% increase earlier, but everything changed since last Sunday, when US authorities had to act very quickly in order to contain the spreading of SVB's problem to other US banks. The Fed had to open an emergency line of credit, allowing banks to pledge a range of high-quality assets to obtain cash for a period of one year. They also pledged to fully protect uninsured depositors in SVBs, as well as relax lending conditions through the Fed's discount window. These measures should provide liquidity shortages to banks.

    Now, the Fed is expected to raise the rate by a quarter point next week, which means that the peak will be around 5.1% in six months, slightly lower than the previously projected 5.74%.

    The current situation is quite negative for dollar as it most certainly raises risk appetite. However, market players should keep in mind that if the crisis in the US banking sector is not solved quickly, it will spread to other regions, which will result in a collapse in other currencies such as euro and pound.

    Ahead is an important US report, that is, the inflation data for February this year. Economists are predicting that the index will show a 0.4% increase, slightly lower than the previous month's 0.5%. Yearly data should be 5.5%, which is also lower than the 5.6% earlier.

    Demand for euro has intensified after all the news, so buyers have a chance to continue building the new upward trend. However, the quote needs to stay above 1.0700 as only by that will euro go beyond 1.0730 and head towards 1.0770 and 1.0800. Should the quote decline below 1.0700, EUR/USD will slip to 1.0666.

    In GBP/USD, bulls also control the market, but the quote needs to stay above 1.2130 so that pound could have the chance to break through 1.2170 and head towards 1.2215 and 1.2265. If bears manage to gain control, the pair may dip to 1.2080 and 1.2050.

    Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 15/03/2023

    The US media has already found the culprit in the banking crisis, and of course it is the Federal Reserve. They're saying that everything happened because the Fed has aggressively lifted interest rates. Supposedly, the main reason why two banks went bankrupt was because of the central bank. Now they are demanding that the Fed immediately start reducing interest rates and switch on the printing press and put out the fire with money. Furthermore, critics of the Fed have another reason to celebrate. Yesterday, we learned that US inflation slowed from 6.4% to 6.0%. It is decelerating for the eighth straight month, and in such circumstances, it will be very difficult for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to explain the need not only to further raise interest rates, but also to do anything other than lower the refinancing rate.

    Inflation (United States):

    The dollar, on the other hand, will continue to be under pressure, as it loses ground not only because of the banking crisis in the United States and the clouds gathering over the Fed. Apparently, the banking crisis is already starting to spill over to Europe as well. We're talking about macro data, which are starting to point to more and more problems in the United States, and the stabilization of the situation in the euro area. In particular, the rate of industrial production decline in Europe should be replaced by growth from -1.7% to 0.5%.

    Industrial production (Europe):

    In the United States, the growth rate of retail sales should slow down from 6.4% to 4.3%. And if all of these forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will have no choice but to keep losing ground.

    Retail Sales (United States):

    The euro continued to rise against the U.S. dollar after a brief pullback. It passed 1.0700 earlier, which played the role of support, strengthening the bullish sentiment in the market.

    On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the upper area of 50/70, which indicates bullish sentiment among traders. On the daily chart, the RSI recently climbed above the 50 midline, which indicates a change in sentiment.

    On the four-hour and one-hour charts, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle from the middle of last week. On the daily chart, the primary signal will show change in trading sentiment, as the moving lines are intertwined with each other.

    Outlook

    The technical signal that shows change in sentiment, which indicates that the euro will gradually recover against the decline in February, will emerge if the price stays above 1.0800. Until then, that level will act as resistance, relative to which it is possible to reduce the volume of long positions on the euro.

    The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the intraday and short-term periods, technical indicators are pointing to bullish
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  2. #1232
    Senior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    977
    Thanked: 0

    Default

    Trading Signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) for March 17 - 20, 2023: key level $1,921 (21 SMA - symmetrical triangle)

    Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,927, above the 21 SMA, and within a symmetrical triangle formed in the last 48 hours.

    The outlook for gold remains bullish. If it consolidates above the daily pivot point (1,920), it could continue rising to reach 1,945, the level which coincides with the third weekly resistance.

    A technical bounce around the 21 SMA located at 1,921 could give us the opportunity to resume buying with targets at 1,937 and 1,945.

    On the contrary, in case gold breaks the uptrend channel formed since March 10 and consolidates below 1,917 in the next few hours, we could expect a further bearish movement and the instrument could reach 5/8 Murray located at 1,906 and finally could fall towards the EMA 200 located at 1,882.

    According to the 1-hour chart, gold has upside potential. It is likely that if it trades above 1,920 (21 SMA), we could expect it to reach the resistance zone of 1,945.

    Our trading plan is to watch a key level of 1,921 which could set the trend for gold. If it trades below this level in the next few hours, it will be considered an opportunity to sell and could accelerate the bearish movement until the price covers the gap left at 1,867.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  3. #1233
    Senior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    977
    Thanked: 0

    Default

    Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 20/03/2023

    The US industrial production report turned out to be much worse than expected and the previous data was revised from 0.8% to 0.5%. And instead of slowing to 0.2%, the industrial production showed a decline of 0.2% year-on-year. These results made it possible for the pound to fully recover its losses, which the pound suffered right after the Credit Suisse announcement, which triggered the euro's fall and eventually pulled the pound down. The single currency has not returned to its previous values and it will probably do that during the day. Moreover, we found out that Credit Suisse has been purchased by another Swiss bank - UBS. So it looks like Europe managed to save the emerging bank crisis, which gives investors optimism of course. Anyway, the GBP has won back its losses, and now it will wait for the euro. So, a temporary stagnation is the most likely outcome. Moreover, the macroeconomic calendar is totally empty today.

    Industrial Production (United States):

    GBP/USD ended last week with growth. As a result, it came close to the local high of the uptrend, which indicates the bullish sentiment prevails.

    On the four-hour, one-hour and one-day charts, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the upper area of the indicator, which confirms the signal of growth of the volume of long positions on the euro.

    On the four-hour and one-day charts, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the bullish momentum.

    Outlook

    We can assume that keeping the price stable above 1.2200 will strengthen long positions in the market, which in turn will open the way towards 1.2300. However, falling below 1.2100 may lead to another move towards the psychological level of 1.2000.

    The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the intraday, medium-term and short-term periods, technical indicators are pointing to bullish sentiment.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  4. #1234
    Senior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    977
    Thanked: 0

    Default

    EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading plan for beginners on March 23, 2023

    Details of the economic calendar on March 22
    The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the eighth time in a year. During the March meeting, the regulator expectedly raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.755%. The central bank also stressed some additional policy firming ahead.

    As for the banking sector, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly said that the U.S. banking system is reliable and stable. According to him, recent events are likely to tighten credit conditions for households and businesses and put pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

    Analysis of trading charts from March 22
    EUR/USD broke through the 1.0800 resistance level during the inertial movement. As a result, there was an increase in the volume of long positions, which indicated the recovery of the euro relative to the decline in February.

    GBP/USD jumped above 1.2300 during the general sale of dollar positions. This move indicates a subsequent price recovery from the fall in February.

    Economic calendar for March 23
    The Bank of England will hold a meeting today, where interest rate is expected to be raised by 25 basis points to 4.25%. Of particular interest will be the regulator's commentary on future actions. Note that inflation data released yesterday showed an acceleration in growth to 10.4%. This may serve as a basis for a further interest rate hike.

    Time targeting:

    Bank of England meeting results 12:00 UTC

    EUR/USD trading plan for March 23
    Based on the technical signal that the euro is overbought in the intraday period, we can assume that a pullback will appear on the market. During which, there will be a regrouping of long positions. However, speculators may ignore signals from technical analysis in vain. In this case, the price may move towards the local high of the medium-term upward trend (1.1033).

    GBP/USD trading plan for March 23
    A stable holding of the price above the level of 1.2300 allows the further growth of the British currency up to complete recovery. However, it is worth taking into account the technical factor of overbought, which can reach a critical point in this price move.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  5. #1235
    Senior Member KostiaForexMart's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2019
    Posts
    977
    Thanked: 0

    Default

    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 27/03/2023

    At first glance, preliminary estimates of PMIs in Europe turned out to be very good. At 55.6, the services Purchasing Managers' Index hit a 10-month high in March, up from 52.7 in February, with a forecast of 52.3 points. In other words, it should have declined, but instead it rose. Due to that the flash composite output index, which should have decreased from 52.0 to 51.3 points, rose more-than-expected to 54.1 in March. Only the manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low of 47.1 from 48.5 in the previous month, though it should have increased to 49.8 points. To a certain extent this was what prevented the euro from rising further.

    Composite PMI (Europe):

    And after the opening of the US trading session, the euro fell, because in America, not only were the same PMIs better than forecasts, in fact, they turned out to be much better. The US Manufacturing PMI in March was 49.3 points, up from the previous value of 47.3 points. It was expected to have fallen to 47.0 points. Meanwhile, the Services PMI jumped to 53.8 points instead of increasing from 50.6 to 51.0. As a result, the composite purchasing managers index rose from 50.1 points to 53.3 points, with a forecast of 49.0 points.

    Composite PMI (United States):

    Today, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty and the market is likely to consolidate around the reached values.

    The euro entered a bearish correction after it sharply rose last week. The pair broke through a resistance level of 1.0800. As a result, the volume of short positions increased.

    On the four-hour chart, the RSI downwardly crossed the 50 middle line, thus reflecting bearish sentiment among traders.

    On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are intertwined, signaling a slowing bull cycle. On the one-day chart, the Alligator's MAs are still headed upwards.

    Outlook

    Based on the corrective phase, its scale has already reached the possible limit. Therefore, the euro can still recover and climb above 1.0800. However, in case the bearish sentiment persists, and the quote stays below 1.0700, the market situation may still change.

    The complex indicator analysis points to a correction in the short-term and intraday periods.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

Similar Threads

  1. Daily Market Analysis by FxGrow
    By FxGrow Support in forum Daily Market Analysis
    Replies: 79
    Last Post: 10-14-2015, 04:52 PM
  2. EUR/ USD Daily Market Analysis 10 August
    By Emmafx in forum Daily Market Analysis
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08-10-2012, 09:54 AM
  3. EUR/ USD Daily Market Analysis 9th August
    By Emmafx in forum Daily Market Analysis
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08-09-2012, 09:08 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Join us