Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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  1. #1131
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
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  2. #1132
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    Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on August 9

    Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

    When EUR/USD tested 1.0178, the MACD line had just started to move below zero, which was a good signal to sell. Surprisingly, the quote did not decrease, but rose and tested 1.0195 instead. At that time, the MACD line was just beginning to move above zero, which was a good signal to buy. It prompted a 20-pip increase, while its second test did not bring significant profit.

    As expected, the report on investor confidence in the Euro area was ignored by the market.

    Today promises to be another calm day as investors are likely to be preparing for tomorrow's release of US inflation. The data will set the direction of the market, right before the end of this month. In the afternoon, reports on small business optimism, labor productivity and labor costs will be published in the US, all of which will affect EUR/USD. Expect it to trade horizontally.

    For long positions:

    Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0215 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0248. However, there is little chance for a rally today, especially considering today's lack of statistics and tomorrow's inflation data in the US.

    Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0193, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0215 and 1.0248.

    For short positions:

    Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0193 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0161. Pressure will return if buying pressure decreases.

    Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0215, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0193 and 1.0161.

    Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on August 9

    Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

    When GBP/USD tested 1.2094, the MACD was far away from zero, so the upside potential was limited. But in the afternoon, its second test happened when the MACD line had just started to move above zero, which was a good signal to buy. This prompted to a price increase of more than 40 pips. Sadly, the target price of 1.2140 was not reached.

    Today promises to be another calm day as investors are likely to be preparing for tomorrow's release of US inflation report. The highest value GBP/USD could reach is yesterday's local resistance level of 1.2135. In the afternoon, data on small business optimism, labor productivity and labor costs will be published in the US, all of which will affect the direction of the market. Expect the pair to trade horizontally.

    For long positions:

    Buy pound when the quote reaches 1.2092 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2132 (thicker green line on the chart). There is a chance for a rally today, but only after the breakdown of 1.2092.

    Take note that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.2068, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2092 and 1.2132.

    For short positions:

    Sell pound when the quote reaches 1.2068 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2031. Pressure will increase if the attempt to continue the upward correction fails.

    Take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it. Pound can also be sold at 1.2092, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2068 and 1.2031.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  3. #1133
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    EUR/USD. The euro bear trap

    The EUR/USD pair remains sensitive to the release of inflation data today. Will there be a surge of interest in one direction or another, or will it remain trading in the current range for quite a long time? Payrolls, although they turned out to be far off from the forecast, failed to stir up traders of the EUR/USD pair.

    In the coming sessions, only the dollar will do the weather in the pair, since the calendar of European data is very disappointing. EUR/USD is influenced by geopolitical factors, statistics from the United States and the Federal Reserve press conference. However, no major changes are expected. According to ING, the euro will continue to trade in the middle of the 1.0100-1.0300 range until the end of this year. There will be small bursts, but they will not break the range limits.

    Even if an exit does happen, it is more likely to go down than up. The strongest CPI data, especially in detail, may change the forecast for US rates for September, which will put pressure on the quote. Meanwhile, a surprise downside inflation is likely to have traders betting on a less hawkish approach from the Federal Reserve next month.

    Euro bulls are pulling like a magnet towards the August high of 1.0293. Pushing the euro beyond this value, bulls will return the upward dynamics for a short time. The exchange rate, under the most optimistic scenario for the euro, may be around 1.0386.

    In general, you can't argue with the trend, a bearish view of the pair remains relevant. While EUR/USD is trading below 1.0913, there is no chance of a change in direction.

    The picture is that the dollar will continue to receive support, and the euro, on the contrary, will be bombarded with new negative factors. The 1.0100 area is a strong support, but with a steady and strong negative, it may not be able to resist and then hello parity again!

    Catalysts for the Dollar

    Rabobank believes that the Fed seems to be going to announce another rate hike of 75 bps. Such a decision may be supported by an impressive report on the US labor market for July, published last week.

    In addition, the US currency will find support from the demand for safe assets. The dollar is a widely used billing currency in the world by a wide margin. This means that the growth of the exchange rate tends to have a depressive effect on trade.

    Another risk to the global recovery is a decline in demand for commodities from China.

    The dollar will remain stable until the situation with risky currencies improves. Consequently, there is a potential for further growth not only this year, but also next year, bank analysts write.

    Catalysts for the Euro

    A steady sell-off, according to Rabobank, will provoke a number of factors. Firstly, it is a harsh winter for Europe. Cold weather plus the possibility of a complete shutdown of the gas supply via the Nord Stream-1 will do their job.

    High energy prices are a serious obstacle for businesses and consumers. The chances of a recession in the euro bloc are high, this is the opinion of most strategists and economists.

    As we can see, the euro does not have the slightest hope for growth. In such conditions, how not to fall lower than expected.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    SEC on a new form of cryptocurrency regulation​​​​​​​

    Sentiment to increase regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies continues to gain momentum after it was revealed on Wednesday that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked major hedge funds to report their exposure to cryptocurrencies.

    Under the proposal, the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are seeking to amend the Form PF process to require accurate reporting of digital asset strategies that involve an amount of at least $500 million.

    Form PF was created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis to help regulators identify asset bubbles and other potential risks to financial market stability by bringing greater transparency to the opaque private equity landscape.

    Both agencies cited the rapid growth of the hedge fund industry as the main reason for the proposed changes, as well as the fact that cryptocurrencies did not yet exist when the form was originally introduced. Consultations have been held with the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve to ensure that there are no risks to the private fund industry as a result of the changes.The number of private funds increased by about 55% from 2008 to the third quarter of 2021, according to a newsletter published with the offer, with IBISWorld data showing that there were 3,841 hedge funds in the US as of early 2022.

    SEC Chairman Gary Gensler noted that under this form of regulation, which includes business practices, complexity, and changes in investment strategies, the gross asset value of the private fund industry has risen nearly 150 percent.

    As to why he supports the proposal, Gensler stated that "if passed, it would improve the quality of the information we get from all PF form fillers, with a particular focus on large hedge fund advisors, which will help protect investors."

    The proposal requires comments from the investment community on whether the funds should disclose details of the cryptocurrencies they hold, such as their name and characteristics.

    Members of the Securities and Exchange Commission voted 3-2 in favor of passing the motion, with Republican commissioners Hester Pierce and Mark Ueda voting against. Concerns raised by those who disagree included whether the government really needed all the information the new PF form would collect.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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  6. #1136
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    The music did not play for long, the yen danced for a short time

    The dollar is getting up from its knees after a crushing fall on Wednesday. The yen is currently feeling the greatest pressure from the greenback, which showed the strongest growth on the US inflation data the day before.

    The market freaked out
    By the end of the week, investors continue to digest the July statistics on US inflation. Recall that the data turned out to be cooler than forecasts, which caused a large-scale sell-off of the dollar.

    Last month, annual inflation in the US fell from the previous value of 9.1% to 8.5%, although economists had expected the CPI to fall to 8.7%.

    A significant easing of inflationary pressures has increased fears that the Federal Reserve may reduce the degree of its aggressiveness with respect to interest rates already at the September meeting.

    The reaction of the market was lightning-fast and very emotional: the yield of US government bonds fell sharply, followed by a plunge in the dollar. The DXY index sank 1.5% to a low of 104.646 on Wednesday.

    The dollar's weakness provided support to all major currencies, but the yen gained the most in this situation. The yen soared by more than 1.6% against its US counterpart, to a mark of 135.

    The dollar is gaining momentum
    After a loud fall on Wednesday, the yield of 10-year US government bonds turned towards growth yesterday. It rose by 3.41% during the day and reached a new high of 2.902%.

    The sharp increase in the indicator again widened the gap between the yields of US treasury bonds and their Japanese counterparts.

    The yen, which is very sensitive to this difference, could not resist the pressure and moved to decline.

    The USD/JPY pair managed to recover by 0.12% to 133.19 on Thursday. It was also supported by the general strengthening of the dollar.

    The greenback grew by 0.1% against its main competitors. Its index remained almost unchanged and stayed at 105.2 during the day.

    Yesterday's comments by Federal Reserve members contributed to the reversal of the yield of US government bonds and the dollar. Despite the slowdown in inflation in July, the tone of officials still remains hawkish.

    Neil Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that the latest CPI data did not change his expectations about the Fed's future course.

    In addition, he stressed that the central bank is still very far from declaring victory over inflation.

    The head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, was in solidarity with her colleague. She also does not rule out the continuation of the Fed's hawkish policy, unless, of course, the next portions of macro data will favor such a sharp increase.

    Recall that the key Fed's goal is to bring interest rates from the current level of 2.252.5% to 4% by the end of the year.

    Some analysts believe that the central bank will try to solve this problem as soon as possible, and predict another rate increase of 75 bps at a meeting in September.

    Why does the yen have no chance?
    This year the dollar index rose by 10%. The greenback received such a solid increase thanks to the aggressive policy of the Fed.

    Since March, the US central bank has raised interest rates by 225 bps. This makes it the undisputed leader: none of the major central banks can compete with the Fed in the pace of tightening.

    But the biggest divergence in monetary policy right now is between the US and Japan. Despite the global increase in rates, the Bank of Japan is still bending its line and continues to keep the rate at a low level.

    The priority for the Japanese central bank is not to fight inflation, but to restore the economy, which has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Unlike the US and EU, which have already managed to get out of the crisis caused by the coronavirus, the Japanese economy is just beginning to show signs of recovery.

    According to preliminary estimates, in the second quarter, Japan's annual GDP could show growth of 2.7%, which is in line with pre-pandemic indicators.

    Statistics on the gross domestic product will be published on Monday. But even if the data turns out to be positive, it most likely will not affect the policies of BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in any way.

    Many experts are inclined to believe that the head of the BOJ will not give up his commitment to a super-soft monetary rate. The main argument in its favor now will be the low wages remaining in the country.

    At this stage, salaries in Japan are far behind the rate of inflation, which undermines the purchasing power of citizens.

    Another big reason to keep rates low is the coronavirus statistics. Japan is at the epicenter of a new COVID-19 outbreak, posing a major threat to the world's third largest economy.

    According to economists at the Japan Research Institute, the BOJ's position can be changed to hawkish only after Kuroda leaves his post.

    Given that he is due to retire no earlier than April 2023, one can estimate how long the downward trend promises to be for the yen.

    Analysts at the Finnish bank Nordea predict that the USD/JPY pair will continue to strengthen on the tight policy of the Fed and reach the level of 140 in the foreseeable future.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    GBP/USD: How deep could GBP fall?

    The pound encountered support after the release of better-than-expected data. The fact that the British economy is not in its best state ahead of the winter season is clear. There are great risks of a recession in the country as monetary tightening along with high energy prices are posing a threat to the economy.

    Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics sees Q4 GDP rising by 0.3% from the previous period.

    "A winter recession can't be ruled out, given that the rise in Ofgem's energy price cap in October will boost CPI inflationand hence reduce real incomesby nearly four percentage points. But with fiscal support likely to be scaled up considerably by the next PM and high income households still possessing substantial savings, we think that GDP will flatline through the winter, rather than fall," economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

    In the second quarter, the British economy contracted by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%. Overall, the economy expanded by 2.9% year-on-year, above the market forecast of 2.8%.

    The pound saw an increase in volatility, but traders made no attempts to trade in any direction. In light of a rise in the dollar, however, a sell-off occurred. At the beginning of the trading week, the pair is trying to consolidate. Demand for the pound is decreasing and the currency is edging down amid gloomy forecasts made by the Bank of England.

    On Monday, bearish pressure on the pound increased, and the price fell below 1.2100. So, GBP/USD was unable to rise on better-than-expected macro data.

    At the same time, the dollar does not show steady growth either. Traders are now uncertain about the Federal Reserve's further monetary stance. The hawkish comments of some policymakers hint that the regulator will remain aggressive. Yet, there are still questions. The situation will get clearer when the FOMC Minutes are released this week. Should the Federal Reserve stay aggressive, the greenback's rally will extend.

    Therefore, the dollar is unlikely to be bearish at the beginning of the trading week although its growth potential will be limited. So, GBP/USD may recover eventually.

    Weekly outlook for GBP

    This week, the focus will be on the retail sales report scheduled for Wednesday as well as US weekly jobless claims and the FOMC Minutes.

    "Next week's FOMC minutes will contain some discussion of the FOMC's apparent desire to slow the pace of hikes soon. But we do not expect it to be a lasting relief," Goldman Sachs said.

    Analysts now see a 50 basis-point hike as the unlikely outcome at the September meeting.

    US macro data will surely be of great importance to the GBP/USD quotes. Still, macro results in the United Kingdom could affect the Bank of England's interest rate forecast.

    On Tuesday, traders will see the release of data on the UK labor market report, which will influence the Bank of England's monetary policy stance.

    Meanwhile, the inflation report published on Wednesday will be of primary importance as it will affect both the BoE's monetary policy and the pound's short-term potential. At this point, it is unclear how the market could react to a possible increase or decrease in rate hikes.

    Therefore, in light of a busy trading week, the pound is likely to trade in a trend in the coming days after consolidation.On Monday, bullish demand for the pound is falling. In the short-term, the pair is expected to be bearish, with targets at 1.2050 and 1.2000 (psychological level).

    Resistance is seen at 1.2200, 1.2265, and 1.2315. Support stands at 1.2080, 1.2030, and 1.1965.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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