Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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  1. #1091
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
    Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 30/05/2022​​​​​​​

    Although the single European currency demonstrated good activity on Friday, showing a movement of fifty points, first up, then down, in fact, it was a stagnation. Which, in general, is not surprising, given that macroeconomic data was not published. And there were no serious news reports that could somehow affect the market either. The beginning of the new trading week will be much less active. And it's not just a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. After all, it is a holiday in the United States to honor Memorial Day. And in the absence of American traders, activity in the market is coming to naught. Like it or not, American investors control most of the capital circulating in financial markets. So the stagnation will become more pronounced, and the magnitude of the movement will be noticeably smaller than on Friday.

    The EURUSD currency pair, despite the scale of the correction, adheres to an upward move. During this time, the euro exchange rate has strengthened by more than 400 points, which is considered a strong price change.

    The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates an upward interest among traders. RSI D1 settled above the 50 line, this is a signal of an elongated correction.

    Alligator H4 is signaling an upward trend, MA moving lines are directed upwards. The Alligator D1 indicator has changed direction from a downward cycle to an upward one. The moving MA lines are directed upwards.

    Expectations and prospects:

    There is a resistance area of 1.0800/1.0850 on the way, which can hold back the bulls. For this reason, the tactic of working on the rebound is considered as the most optimal strategy. In the future, this may lead to the completion of the corrective move.

    An alternative scenario considers the prolongation of the correction. This signal will be relevant only if the price stays above 1.1850 in the daily period.

    Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the correction. In the medium term, indicators changed to buy indicators due to a protracted correction.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  2. #1092
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    Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 31, 2022

    Economic calendar for May 31

    Today, traders are focused on the preliminary assessment of inflation in Europe. It is predicted that the consumer price index will continue to grow from 7.4% to 7.7%, which is a negative factor for the EU economy. Further inflation growth may stimulate the ECB to more aggressive tactics of tightening monetary policy. In simple words, the regulator may still move to an interest rate hike based on the growth of inflation. Thus, based on the logic of the ECB's further steps, this news may lead to an increase in the value of the euro in the medium term.

    A short-term reaction to rising inflation could lead to a weakening of the euro.

    Time targeting

    EU Inflation - 09:00 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 31

    The area of resistance 1.0800/1.0850 is still putting pressure on buyers, which may lead to the completion of the corrective movement. If expectations are confirmed, the euro rate may return to the value of 1.0636.

    An alternative scenario considers the prolongation of the correction. This signal will be relevant only if the price holds above 1.0850 in the daily period.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 31

    In this situation, special attention is paid to the stage of stagnation within the amplitude of 1.2600/1.2700. This fluctuation may indicate the process of accumulation of trade forces, which will eventually lead to a local acceleration. Based on the assumption, the best trading tactic is the method of breaking through one or another stagnation border with confirmation in a four-hour period.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  3. #1093
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    Oil holds steady in positive territory for six straight months and extends its rally into summer​​​​​​​

    On Wednesday, global oil prices are steadily increasing after a short decline a day earlier. The fall in oil prices on Tuesday was caused by speculations that some producers want to suspend Russia's participation in the OPEC+ production deal, as well as by new sanctions against Russia.

    At the moment of writing, August Brent oil futures have gained 0.36% and are now hovering near $116.02 per barrel. A day earlier, Brent lost 1.7% and declined to $115.60 per barrel.

    WTI oil futures for July rose by 0.44% to $115.17 per barrel on Wednesday. Yesterday, the futures contracts fell by 0.35% to $114.67 per barrel.

    So, on Tuesday, oil depreciated by about 2% after a report that some OPEC members are exploring the idea of suspending Russia's participation in the deal over the conflict in Ukraine. The key factors in this case are the Western sanctions imposed on Russia and the partial embargo on Russian crude imports. This step will notably limit Russia's ability to ramp up oil production. The next OPEC+ meeting will take place on June 2, 2022.

    In 2021, Russia, one of the world's top three crude producers, made a deal with OPEC and 9 other non-OPEC members to gradually increase output every month. Yet, amid anti-Russian sanctions, analysts predict an 8% drop in oil production.

    Oil quotes were steadily rising until the news about Russia's possible suspension appeared in the media. In the early trade on Tuesday, Brent futures for July jumped above $124 per barrel for the first time since March 9.

    Experts suggest that if the cancellation of Russia's membership is confirmed, the price of oil may drop to $100.

    Today, markets are focused on supply prospects amid a ban on Russian oil imports to the EU. On May 31, the EU members agreed on the sixth package of sanctions which includes a partial embargo on oil and petroleum products imported by sea.

    The sanctions ban local companies from providing insurance to Russian oil tankers. This means that from now on, Russia is isolated from the largest export market.

    Restrictions will deal a heavy blow to oil deliveries to Asia which may disrupt Russia's plan to refocus on exports to China and India.

    This ban can seriously hit the economy of Russia as the majority of European companies will refuse to transport oil without insurance. The effectiveness of this restriction was previously tested on Iran and proved to be successful.

    Many European countries involved in shipping have already expressed concern about the ban on insurance for Russian oil tankers. So, the EU decided to implement it gradually within the next six months.

    The official statement about the new restrictive measures against Moscow is expected in the coming days.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  4. #1094
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    Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 2, 2022

    Economic calendar for June 2

    Today is a holiday in the UK, but this will not cause a decrease in volatility in financial markets. The focus will be on the ADP report on employment in the United States, which is predicted to grow by 295,000 in May. This is a positive signal for the labor market if the data is confirmed.

    Almost simultaneously with the report, ADP will publish weekly data on jobless claims in the US, where they predict a reduction in their volume. This is a positive factor for the US labor market.

    Statistics details:

    The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.346 million to 1.308 million.

    The volume of initial claims for benefits may remain at the level of 210,000.

    Time targeting

    ADP report - 12:15 UTC

    US Jobless Claims - 12:30 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 2

    In order to confirm the signal to sell the euro, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.0636 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, traders will have high chances of moving towards the values of 1.0570–1.0500.

    Otherwise, the market may experience another stagnation with a local pullback relative to the pivot point.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 2

    A stable holding of the price below the level of 1.2500 may lead to a subsequent decline towards the value of 1.2350. This move will indicate a gradual process of recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent correction.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  5. #1095
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    Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 3, 2022

    Economic calendar for June 3

    Retail sales data in the euro area is expected for publication today. Forecasts assumed growth in figures, which may provide local support for the euro before the American trading session.

    The main macroeconomic event of the outgoing week is considered to be the report of the United States Department of Labor, which predicts by no means bad indicators. The unemployment rate could drop from 3.6% to 3.5%, and 325,000 new jobs could be created outside of agriculture. We have a strong US labor market, which could support the US dollar.

    Time targeting

    EU retail sales - 09:00 UTC

    US Department of Labor Report - 12:30 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 3

    Based on the recent price change, we can assume that the market has a local signal that the euro is overbought in the short term. This can lead to a slowdown in the upward cycle followed by a rebound. The price area of 1.0770/1.0800 is considered as resistance on the way of buyers.

    The scenario of the prolongation of the corrective move will be considered by traders if the price stays above 1.0850 for at least a four-hour period.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 3

    In this situation, traders consider two possible scenarios at once:

    The first one comes from the preservation of rising interest in the market, where holding the price above 1.2600 can return the quote to the resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720.

    The second scenario considers the possibility of completing a corrective move, where holding the price below 1.2530 will lead to another attempt to break through the support level of 1.2500. The largest increase in the volume of short positions will occur after the price holds below 1.2450, which will confirm the signal about the completion of the correction.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  6. #1096
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    Trading Signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) on June 14-15, 2022: buy above $1,812 (2/8 Murray - oversold)​​​​​​​

    XAU/USD came under bearish pressure after falling below the 200 EMA (1,849) and ended the American session reaching a low of 1808.93

    In less than 24 hours from the high of 1878.74 to the low of 1808.93, gold fell by approximately $70. This is a sign that risk aversion is increasing and investors will continue to take refuge in the US dollar.

    Investors are worried that the Fed may hike the interest rate by 0.75%. As a result, the stock markets declined along with gold and cryptocurrencies.

    A technical rebound is expected in the next few hours as gold is in an oversold zone. However, as long as it fails to consolidate above the 200 EMA located at 1,849, it will only be a pullback to resume the downtrend correction.

    In the early Asian session, XAU/USD is trading at 1,824 and after having found a strong bounce above 2/8 Murray. The technical bounce is likely to continue in the next few hours and may reach the 21 SMA around 1,838.

    In case of a test of the level of 2/8 Murray, gold is likely to return to the zone of 1,812. We should wait for a consolidation above this level to buy with targets at 1,830, and 1,838. It could reach the 200 EMA at 1,849.

    In the Asian session, the eagle indicator touched the oversold zone. It means that a technical rebound will occur in the next few hours. it may be an opportunity to buy above 1,812.

    On the contrary, if gold resumes its downtrend and trades below 1,812 it could continue its downward movement and could reach the psychological level of 1,800 and the low of May 16 at 1786.70

    Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold at current price levels around 1,824 or in case of a bounce at 1,812 to buy with targets at 1,838 and 1,849.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  7. #1097
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    Storm warning for USD/JPY

    USD/JPY went on a rollercoaster ride yesterday after the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 75bp. Don't loosen your belts as more course turbulence is expected in the coming days

    The US central bank's decision did not come as a surprise to the markets.

    The latest jump in the US consumer price index to 8.6% made it clear that the Fed intends to tighten its grip.

    As predicted, at Wednesday's meeting the central bank raised interest rates by 75 bp.

    The fact that the Fed went for the biggest increase in the rate since 1994 sent the dollar skyrocketing in almost every direction.

    However, a little later on the charts, the opposite situation was already observed. The greenback dipped just as steeply as investors weighed in on the US central bank's rate plans.

    Politicians lowered inflation expectations for both the current year and 2023, and also hinted at the next rate hike by either 50 bp or 75 bp.

    The Fed's rejection of the possibility of a 100 bp rate hike literally plunged the dollar. The USD/JPY fell to 133.75, after hitting a new 24-year high of 135.50 in previous deals.

    This morning, the yen turned around again and took the already familiar downward route. The Japanese currency returned to the lowest level since 1998 at 135.

    Meanwhile, currency strategists note that in the short term the dollar-yen pair will remain highly volatile, and warn of even greater exchange rate turbulence.

    Ahead and after the 2-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, which will be held on June 16-17, the range of fluctuations of the USD/JPY pair may be at least 7 points.

    According to experts, during this period, the yen will trade from 131.05 to 138.08 per dollar. Thus, its weekly volatility will approach the highest level since 2020.

    The jumps in the rate will be due to the ambiguous expectations of the market regarding the further policy of the Japanese central bank. As you know, BOJ stands out among its colleagues with its ardent commitment to a soft monetary rate.

    BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to insist that it is too early to cut stimulus and raise rates, because inflation in the country remains relatively moderate.

    In April, consumer prices in Japan exceeded the BOJ target of 2% for the first time in seven years and reached 2.1% year on year.

    Nevertheless, in the future, Kuroda does not expect a significant increase in inflation. And until recently, this confidence has helped him stick to a dovish line, despite the global tightening trend.

    However, can the head of the BOJ continue in the same vein amid the ongoing depreciation of the yen?

    The decline in the Japanese currency has already significantly worsened the position of the world's third largest economy and overshadowed its prospects.

    This morning, the Japanese government announced that in May the country faced the largest increase in the trade deficit in eight years.

    Imports rose 48.9% year-on-year last month, outpacing exports by 15.8%, according to Japan's Ministry of Finance data. This resulted in a trade deficit of 2.385 trillion yen ($17.80 billion).

    The trade balance with a negative balance testifies to the widespread consumption of foreign goods, the value of which continues to rise steadily.

    This exacerbates the already sad situation of Japanese consumers, suffering from rising energy and food prices. Therefore, it is possible that Kuroda may change his mind dramatically and throw out a surprise tomorrow.

    Given his behavior in the past, this is quite likely. As a reminder, before settling on the current policy, which is known as yield curve control, in 2016 the official shocked the markets with an unexpected move to negative interest rates.

    Some analysts do not rule out the BOJ's surrender in the near future. If Kuroda gives even the slightest hint that he intends to reduce his asset purchases or raise rates, this will further increase the volatility of the market.

    In this case, we should expect a big sale of Japanese bonds, a sharp increase in their yield and, as a result, an increase in demand for the yen.

    According to experts, a change in the yield curve control policy could lead to a fall in the USD/JPY pair by 3-4% from the current level.

    And if Kuroda declares on Friday that he remains true to his position, we will be able to see the continuation of the rally of this currency pair.

    Analysts at Credit Suisse expect the greenback to rise to 142 against the yen.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  8. #1098
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    The steep rise of the franc and the crushing fall of the yen

    Yesterday, Switzerland made a knight's move, unexpectedly raising rates by 50 bps. Against this background, expectations of the Bank of Japan's capitulation sharply increased. But the BOJ still decided to stand on its own.

    In the outgoing week, two major central banks, whose monetary policy remained super-soft in the face of total tightening, decided to go their separate ways.

    On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank made a shocking decision to raise interest rates. And this morning, the BOJ finally dispelled rumors about a possible rise in the indicator.

    Franc rejoices: SNB takes a hawkish a path
    Yesterday's decision by the Swiss central bank on interest rates produced a bombshell effect on the markets.

    Of course, many expected that the SNB could decide to increase the indicator in conditions of increased inflation. But did anyone think that it could literally turn from a quiet dove into an aggressive hawk overnight?

    The Swiss bank immediately raised the rate by half a percentage point, to 0.25%. The central bank has tightened its monetary policy for the first time in 15 years, hoping to contain inflation, which threatens to get out of control.

    Currently, inflation in the country is 2.4% and, according to SNB forecasts, may reach 2.8% by the end of the year. This is significantly higher than the agency's target range of 2%.

    The shocking rise in the rate by 50 bps provoked the sharpest growth of the franc in the last seven years. The Swiss currency has risen by almost 3% against the dollar.

    The franc also strengthened significantly against the euro. The single currency dropped to 1.0131, showing the strongest drop since June 2016. Recall that the results of the Brexit referendum were published then.

    Now analysts expect a further rise of the Swiss currency against the dollar and the franc reaching parity with the euro, as the SNB said that further tightening may be required to combat inflation.

    The yen is stormy: BOJ chooses a dovish route
    Interestingly, the rise in rates in Switzerland not only triggered the franc rally, but also gave a short-term boost to the yen.

    Yesterday, the Japanese currency rose more than 1% against the dollar and reached a 2-week high. The increased threat of a global recession partially contributed to the strengthening of the protective asset.

    Investors fear that a series of rate hikes, which this week has been remembered for, will provoke a slowdown in global economic growth.

    Recall that on Wednesday the Fed raised rates by 75 bps, and on Thursday the Bank of England (by 25 bps) and the SNB (by 50 bps) reported an increase in the indicator.

    The most unexpected, as we have already noted above, was the decision of the Swiss central bank. After the surprise it presented, speculation increased significantly that the BOJ would go the same way.

    However, this did not happen. On Friday morning, the BOJ announced that it continues easing monetary policy and keeps interest rate targets unchanged.

    This choice left the BOJ completely alone. While other major central banks are tightening their policies to curb rising inflation, the Japanese central bank decides to focus on supporting the economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The market's reaction to the BOJ's dovish tactics is absolutely logical. Today, the yen is falling as rapidly as it rose yesterday.

    At the time of preparation of the material, the yen plunged by almost 1% against the dollar and was trading again at a 24-year low of 134.

    Experts predict that in the near future we will see a further depreciation of the yen, which may cause even more damage to the economy, which is heavily dependent on imports of fuel and raw materials.The fact that uncertainty about the Japanese economy is extremely high is also stated in today's BOJ statement. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the regulator decides to turn off the beaten track at its next meeting...
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  9. #1099
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    AUD skyrockets post-RBA Minutes​​​​​​​

    Two weeks ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly lifted interest rates by 50 basis points. AUD/USD soared after the announcement. No wonder, the Minutes of the meeting triggered a similar reaction.

    The Aussie dollar went up even before the release of the RBA Minutes. Yesterday, the currency strengthened by 0.3% to 0.69675 versus the US dollar on hawkish expectations.

    According to the June report published on Tuesday, the central bank considered a 0.25% or 0.5% rate hike. RBA policymakers voted in favor of the latter one to curb inflation faster.

    AUD/USD extended gains following RBA Governor Philip Lowe's hawkish comments.

    The RBA chief saw inflation at 7% by the end of the year, well above the long-term target rate. He reaffirmed further monetary tightening due to growing inflationary pressure.

    "As we chart our way back to 2% to 3% inflation, Australians should be prepared for more interest rate increases," warned Lowe in a speech. "The level of interest rates is still very low for an economy with low unemployment and that is experiencing high inflation."

    At the same time, the official made it clear that the RBA would not follow the Fed's suit. Last week, the US central bank lifted rates by 0.75% for the first time since 1994.

    "At the moment, the decision we will take is either 25 or 50 again at the next meeting," Mr. Lowe said.

    By the end of July, the Australian regulator will see the release of Q2 inflation. Therefore, the RBA may well stay hawkish in August.

    The bank will also update the economic growth forecast by the August meeting.

    Some analysts say these data could affect the pace of rate increases needed to tame inflation.

    The interest rate is now seen at around 3.7% by the end of the year. To reach the target, the central bank should go for the most dramatic monetary tightening in its modern history.

    Such a scenario would hit consumer spending hard and even lead to a slowdown in economic growth, thus harming the Australian dollar.

    In addition, global recession risks are growing as the world's biggest central banks are hiking rakes.

    A slowdown in global economic growth could be a serious obstacle to the commodity currency in the long term.

    "We forecast AUD/USD will spend most of the next twelve months in a 0.60-0.70 range," the Commonwealth Bank Of Australia said in a note.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

  10. #1100
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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Technical analysis recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for June 22, 2022​​​​​​​

    EUR/USD

    Higher timeframes

    The area 1.0539 – 1.0582, which united many significant resistances of the higher timeframes, continues to hold back the development of the upward movement. To gain new targets, bulls should eliminate the daily death cross (1.0501 – 1.0522 – 1.0573 – 1.0624), enlist the support of the weekly short-term trend (1.0583) and enter the daily cloud (1.0558). For bears, the targets remain the same, which are the local lows 1.0339 and 1.0349.

    H4 – H1

    Bulls are still having a hard time developing their advantage on the lower timeframes. For several days now, they have been interacting with key supports, being in their zone of attraction. Consolidation below and reversal of the moving average (1.0500—weekly long-term trend) will change the current balance of power, and then bullish interests may be replaced by opportunities for strengthening bearish sentiment.

    GBP/USD

    Higher timeframes

    Bulls fail to develop a rebound. As a result, the pair continues to consolidate in the zone of attraction of the daily Ichimoku cross (Tenkan 1.2225 – Kijun 1.2300). The most significant resistance of this section is now at the level of 1.2388 (the final level of the daily cross + weekly short-term trend). The reference points for a bearish trend are 1.2000 (psychological level) – 1.1933 (local low). Overcoming these levels may change the current balance of power.

    H4 – H1

    Bulls had been in possession of the key levels of the lower timeframes for a long time, but failed to develop their advantage. Today, an attempt is being made to change the balance of power, perhaps the opponent, having seized the key levels 1.2232–79 (central pivot point of the level of the day + weekly long-term trend), will be more effective.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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