Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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  1. #1011
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 3, 2022

    February 3 economic calendar:

    Today is the busiest day of the week, as two meetings of the Central Banks are expected at once.

    The Bank of England intends to accelerate the pace of tightening monetary policy by raising the refinancing rate from 0.25% to 0.50%. This step will definitely affect the exchange rate of the British currency in terms of its further strengthening. It is worth considering that the pound has already grown by 200 points, after the news appeared on January 28 that the regulator intends to raise the rate once again. Thus, there is an assumption that the market has already considered the decision of the Bank of England in the quotation.

    Following the meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) is highly likely to leave everything as it is. Therefore, market participants will pay attention to subsequent comments, where we expect to hear specifics from the regulator in terms of further actions. In simple words, the ECB intends to adhere to an ultra-soft approach or follow the path of its colleagues and start tightening monetary policy. The first option of development will lead to a weakening of the euro, but the announcement of an early tightening of monetary policy will provide an opportunity to strengthen the euro noticeably.

    Time targeting

    Bank of England results - 12:00 Universal time

    ECB results - 12:45 Universal time

    ECB press conference - 13:30 Universal time

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on Feb 3:

    In this situation, traders are considering a temporary price fluctuation within the resistance area of 1.1270/1.1320, but everything can change if new speculative surges amid informational noise.

    Trading recommendations remain the same, where acceleration is considered after the breakdown of one of the control values.

    The signal for the prolongation of the upward cycle will be received if the price holds above the level of 1.1330 in an H4 period.

    The signal about the end of the correction will be considered by traders if the price holds below the level of 1.1260 in an H4 period.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on Feb 3:

    In this case, there is overheating of long positions, where the level of 1.3600 can act as resistance. This will lead to a gradual recovery of downward interest. It is worth considering that traders might ignore the overbought status due to upcoming events. In this case, holding the price above the level of 1.3600 will lead to a subsequent growth.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Pound aims to reach new highs

    The pound gathered strength for the next breakthrough, which occurred after the results of the Bank of England's meeting on the rate was announced. Its nearest goals are to consolidate in the reached positions and conquer the next highs.

    On Thursday, the Bank of England discussed the current monetary policy. The key issue was to raise the interest rate. The markets expect five rate hikes from the regulator this year, the cumulative increase of which will be 125 bps. Following the announcement of the results of the meeting, the pound noticeably declined against the US dollar. On Thursday evening, it was trading at the level of 1.3577 and then made a short-term breakthrough to 1.3628. However, it lacked the strength to hold on to the gained positions. On Friday morning, the GBP/USD pair was near the round level of 1.3600, trying not to further fall.

    Experts consider the Bank of England one of the most "hawkish" among the world's regulators. The actions of the monetary authority confirm this definition. It can be recalled that the British regulator is expected to increase the interest rate from 0.25% per annum to 0.5% while maintaining the volume of asset repurchases for 895 billion pounds. Along with this, the Bank of England revised the forecast of the country's economic growth downward to 3.75% from the previous 5% calculated in November 2021. The Central Bank of England considers a reduction in aggregate demand as the reason for the slow growth rates of the national economy. At the same time, the regulator raised the forecast for UK inflation for this year to 5.75% from the previous 3.5%.

    The current situation had a vague effect on the pound's dynamics. On the one hand, the rate increase gave impulse to it, helping it to increase, but on the other hand, it keeps it in a state of uncertainty. This condition prevents the pound from reversing and it has to be content with short-term growth.

    In relation to the Euro currency, the British currency also showed growth. Analysts noted that it surged to a 2-year high against the euro amid the interest rate hike by the Bank of England. The regulator expectedly raised the key rate to 0.5%, and this is not the limit. According to Jane Foley, Head of Foreign Exchange at Rabobank, the Bank of England will raise rates again in May 2022.

    "Against the backdrop of falling household incomes due to rising energy and food prices, market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England are exaggerated. However, another rate hike is expected in May," J. Foley believes.

    The British regulator has increased the interest rate to curb rampant price pressure. According to the estimates of the Central Bank of England, the inflation rate in the country will soon exceed 7%. The off-the-scale indicators not only concern inflation. According to BoE's representatives, consumer price growth in April 2022 will reach its peak values over the past 30 years and will amount to 7.25%. Based on the preliminary forecasts, the UK inflation will remain above 5% in a year. However, the ministry believes that inflation will be below 2% in three years and will amount to 1.6%. At the same time, the British regulator believes that investors have put too many rate increases in prices this year.

    Because of this, the pound remains at risk but does not give up. It is slightly imbalanced against the US dollar due to a decline in global risk appetite and a drop in the stock market, but it strives to overcome price barriers, despite inflationary pressure and several negative economic factors.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    European stock markets closed lower on Friday

    The ECB did not change the main parameters of monetary policy. The regulator left the base interest rate on loans at zero, the rate on deposits - at minus 0.5%. The rate on margin loans was kept at 0.25%.

    Meanwhile, in a post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that consumer price growth, which reached historic highs in January and December, could remain elevated for a longer period than previously expected. At the same time, she expressed the hope that inflation will begin to gradually slow down during 2022.

    When asked if Lagarde was ready to repeat what she said two months ago about the low probability of a rate hike in 2022, the head of the ECB replied that she does not make promises without certain conditions, and that much will depend on the March revision of the central bank's macroeconomic forecasts.

    In turn, the Bank of England raised its key rate for the second time in a row, from 0.25% to 0.5%, against the backdrop of record inflation in the UK in 30 years.

    The volume of orders of industrial enterprises in Germany in December increased by 2.8% compared to the previous month, the country's Ministry of Economics reported. Analysts on average had expected a rise of 0.5%.

    Retail sales in the euro area in December 2021 decreased by 3% compared to the previous month, data from the European Union Statistical Office (Eurostat) showed. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected a decline of 0.9% on average. In annual terms, retail sales increased by 2% instead of the expected growth of 5%.

    Retail sales fell the most in Ireland (-3.2%), Spain and Finland (-3%). The most significant growth in retail sales was recorded in Slovenia (+44.1%), Lithuania (+16.2%) and Estonia (+12.6%).

    Traders continue to follow the reporting season and analyze the results of European and American companies.

    The composite index of the largest enterprises in the Stoxx Europe 600 region by the close of trading fell by 1.38% and amounted to 462.15 points. At the end of the week, the indicator lost 0.73%.

    The British FTSE 100 fell on Friday by 0.17%, the French CAC 40 index - by 0.77%, the German DAX - by 1.75%. The Spanish IBEX 35 and the Italian FTSE MIB lost 1.15% and 1.79% respectively.

    The French pharmaceutical company Sanofi SA increased its net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021, but the rise in revenue was worse than market forecasts. The company's shares fell 1.1%.

    Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo SpA turned profitable in the fourth quarter of 2021 and plans to return Ä22 billion to shareholders by 2025 as part of a new business plan. Bank papers, meanwhile, fell 2.2%.

    Enel SpA shares lost 2.1%. The Italian energy company boosted revenue in 2021 on the back of better business segment performance, but profit growth slowed.

    Capitalization of the Swedish biopharmaceutical AddLife AB collapsed by 26.3%. The company said its CEO Christina Wilgard plans to retire this year.

    The value of Swedish door lock maker Assa Abloy AB jumped 7% after the release of the report. The company posted a net profit of SEK 3.04 billion ($334.2 million) in the fourth quarter, which was higher than the market forecast. Assa Abloy also increased its dividend.

    Shares in British tech Oxford Nanopore Technologies PLC rose 1% after analysts at Berenberg released a positive report on the company's outlook following the Festival of Genomics 2022 event.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Cryptocurrency theft funded North Korea's nuclear and missile program

    United Nations report says that cryptocurrency theft remained an important source of income for North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs last year.

    Cryptocurrency theft was carried out through cyberattacks on cryptocurrency exchanges around the world. North Korean hackers stole millions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency.

    In general, the report notes that more than $50 million worth of digital assets has been stolen between 2020 and mid-2021.

    Moreover, according to the UN report, cyber-attacks represent the main source of income for Pyongyang's nuclear and missile program. The findings were submitted to the UN Security Council committee on sanctions against North Korea.

    The UN report describes an analysis of how North Korea's cyberattacks could have raised $400 million worth of cryptocurrency last year. These attacks primarily targeted investment firms and centralized exchanges. Last year was the most fruitful for cybercriminals. According to calculations and analysis of UN data, criminals launched at least seven attacks on cryptocurrency platforms.

    The UN Security Council banned North Korea from launching ballistic missiles and conducting nuclear tests.

    In addition, it has tightened sanctions against North Korea since 2006 in order to limit funding for Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

    The report noted that North Korea's missile tests have increased over the past year. According to a US statement last week, North Korea carried out nine ballistic missile launches in January despite sanctions.

    And one of the last launches of a medium-range ballistic missile took place a week ago. The most popular test site was Alsom Island, located 11 miles off the northeast coast of North Korea. Since 2019, Pyongyang has launched more than 25 missile strikes on it.

    According to 2019 UN data, North Korea managed to secure about $2 billion for its nuclear and missile program despite existing sanctions pointing to state-sponsored hacking groups.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    European stock market up on strong earnings

    Strong quarterly reports on corporate earnings of European companies supported the stock market on Wednesday, but concerns about the aggressive steps of major central banks are limiting growth. Thus, the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose by 1.0%. The UK FTSE 100 advanced by 0.45% to 7,600.4, the French CAC 40 was up by 1.06% to 7,103.08, and the German DAX rose by 0.88% to 15,376.34.

    Investors expect the European companies to show strong financial performance. This week, such companies as Metro AG, Societe Generale, and Total Energies will issue their corporate reports.

    Shares of some European companies have already posted gains. For example, the securities of the French asset manager Amundi added 2.5%. This rise was facilitated by reports about a significant increase in the company's quarterly profits.

    Equinor, the largest oil company in Northern Europe, published strong results for the previous year. Its shares were up by 3.7%.

    Shares of Danish jewellery maker Pandora also rose by 5.1% today. The expected growth of sales in 2022 was certainly a driving factor. In addition, Pandora's results came in line with the preliminary forecast released in January.

    Shares of the Dutch payment system Adyen were the top gainers in Europe: their price surged unexpectedly by as much as 11.0%.

    The worst performers of the day were the stocks of the Swedish online casino developer Evolution Gaming, which lost 6.8%, and the shares of the Norwegian financial corporation Storebrand, which fell by 5.8%. Shares of the Dutch insurance company Aegon NV also slipped into negative territory with a drop of 4.86%.

    In general, on February 9, global stock markets were quite optimistic. In addition to strong corporate reports, the macroeconomic data from Germany was also of key importance. Thus, the volume of the country's exports in December in monthly terms rose by 0.9% and imports - by 4.7%.

    Investors hope that the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe will soon be resolved, especially after French President Emmanuel Macron has visited Moscow and Kyiv. European and American officials are convinced that the only way to handle the conflict on the border with Ukraine is to implement the Minsk agreements.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    European stock indices continue to grow steadily due to multiple positive factors

    During the trading session on Thursday, European stock exchange indicators are permanently increasing against the background of strong financial statements of major corporations.

    So, at the time of writing, the British FTSE 100 indicator increased by 0.03% to 7646.1 points, the French CAC 40 also gained 0.03%, reaching a level of 7133.12 points, and the German DAX jumped 0.2% to 15514.1 points.

    The main impetus for the growth of European stock markets was the optimism of investors regarding the published corporate reports of Siemens, ArcelorMittal, and Societe General. The value of the securities of these giants rose on Thursday by 6.07%, 0.72%, and 4.8%, respectively.

    The focus of attention of market participants this week is data on the inflation rate in the United States. According to preliminary forecasts of analysts, in January, this indicator will rise to the highest since February 1982 - by 7.3%. Recall that in December 2021, the inflation rate in the United States reached 7%.

    Following the results of the trading session on Wednesday, European stock indices reported a spectacular rise against the background of a decline in the yields of government bonds of the eurozone states.

    Thus, the key Stoxx Europe 600 indicator closed at 473.33 points, gaining 1.72% over the day. France's main stock index, the CAC 40, added 1.46%, stopping at 7130.88 points, the German DAX gained 1.57% and rose to 15482.01 points, and the British increased by 1.01% to 7643.42 points.

    The yield of 10-year German government bonds lost about 5 basis points yesterday, dropping to 0.22%. The declining yield of bonds stimulates the attractiveness of securities for investors as a reliable investment tool.

    The most popular stocks among traders on the eve were the securities of technical corporations. As a result, the quotes of the Dutch manufacturer of microelectronic products ASML Holding jumped by 4%, ASM International - by 4.7%, AMS-Osram - by 5.8%.

    Another important growth factor for European stock markets was the corporate reporting of the region's leading enterprises. Thus, the shares of the Danish jewelry manufacturer Pandora increased in price by 8% against the background of the company's management statement about the expected sales growth in 2022.

    The quotes of the Norwegian oil and gas corporation Equinor ASA jumped 1.4% after the company reported a return to profit in the fourth quarter. In addition, Equinor ASA representatives announced an increase in dividend payments and an increase in the securities repurchase program.

    Shares of the Danish transport and logistics company A.P. Moller-Maersk AS on Wednesday closed with an increase of 7.2% on the background of a report on record revenue and net profit in the fourth quarter of last year.

    The quotes of the British pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline sank by 1.4%, despite the growth in net profit and revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021.

    Securities of the leading Dutch bank ABN Amro Bank NV fell by 9.1%. In the fourth quarter of last year, the net profit of ABN Amro Bank NV increased 10 times, however, the size of the new program for repurchasing its securities did not meet market forecasts.

    Shares of the German manufacturer Siemens Energy AG gained 1%. The company's stock quotes showed growth, despite reporting a net loss in the last quarter against profit for the same period in 2020.

    The securities of the Dutch manufacturer of paints and varnishes Akzo Nobel NV soared by 5% on the back of better than experts predicted quarterly reports of the company.

    Experts say that the current optimism in the stock markets of Europe and the world is explained by the absence of meetings of the largest central banks and positive financial reports of manufacturing giants.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Forecast for USD/JPY on February 11, 2022

    The dollar's effort to settle above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart of the USD/JPY pair was not in vain - yesterday the price jumped by 86 points, closing the day with a rise of 52 points. Now the way for the dollar to the line of the price channel of the monthly chart in the area of 117.17 is open.

    On the four-hour chart, visually stable growth continues in the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator is in no hurry to grow, which allows the price to reach the lower border of the price channel either by a small correction, or by a sideways movement - by consolidation. Next, we are waiting for a new wave of growth.

    Forecast for EUR/USD on February 11, 2022

    On Thursday, with the release of data on inflation in the US, the euro traded in a range of 120 points, marking the target level of 1.1496 with an upper shadow. To be precise, yesterday's peak was 1.1495, but one point can be neglected as a fluctuation effect. Inflation (CPI) in the US increased from 7.0% y/y to 7.5% y/y in January, and this is the highest rate since 1982. Market participants are now waiting for the March rate increase immediately by 0.50%. We are now waiting for the euro to go into a correction in the area of the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, to the target level of 1.1300 (August 2018 low). At this level, the question will be decided - will the price turn from it into further growth, towards the target 1.1700/22, or will it consolidate below it and continue to decline to 1.1060.

    On the four-hour chart, the price went under the balance indicator line, visually getting ready to attack the MACD line (1.1355), overcoming which will make it possible to get ready to take 1.1300. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned down from the zero line (arrow), which is an additional confirmation of the price's intention to develop a downward movement.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Rising tensions in Eastern Europe have brought down US stock indices

    At the close of trading on Friday, US stock exchange indicators showed a steady decline against the background of negative dynamics on the part of technology companies, as well as the consumer goods and services sector. An equally important downward factor for the market was a sharp increase in tension in eastern Europe.

    As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.43%, closing at 3,4738.06 points. The main favorites among the DJIA components were the securities of Chevron Corp (+2.04%), Verizon Communications Inc (+0.53%), and Dow Inc (+0.23%). Stocks topped the fall list of Salesforce.com Inc (-4.49%), Nike Inc (-3.20%), and Boeing Co (-2.95%).

    The high-tech NASDAQ Composite fell by 2.78% to 1,3791.15 points. The growth leaders among the components of the Nasdaq stock index were the securities of Y-mAbs Therapeutics (+25.95%), Kaival Brands Innovations Group Inc (+23.08%), and InterCure Ltd (+21.84%). The shares of ProQR Therapeutics NV (-75.35%), Enveric Biosciences Inc (-49.03%), and Surgalign Holdings Inc (-45.57%) reported minimal results here.

    The Standard & Poor's 500 broad market indicator sank by 1.90% to 4,418.64 points. The securities of Newell Brands Inc (+11.07%), Baker Hughes Co (+6.20%), and Occidental Petroleum Corporation (+5.65%) demonstrated the highest results in the S&P 500 stock index. The main outsiders were the shares of Under Armour Inc A (-12.49%), Under Armour Inc C (-11.37%), and Advanced Micro Devices Inc (-10.01%).

    On the NYSE stock exchange, the number of securities that lost in price (2,266) exceeded the number of those that increased in value (987), and the indicators of 136 shares remained at the level of the previous close.

    The Cboe Volatility Index, which is formed based on options trading indicators on the S&P 500, rose by 14.43% to 27.36 points.

    Geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe remained in the focus of market participants' attention on Friday. Thus, the United States authorities called on Americans to leave the territory of Ukraine within 24-48 hours, explaining their concern about "the possibility of Russian troops invading the territory of a neighboring state at any moment."

    Another important downward factor for the stock markets of America was the weak statistics on the US economy and the growing concerns of investors about the acceleration of inflation. Thus, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, this month the consumer confidence index in the United States fell to 61.7 points from 67.2 in January. The value of the indicator was the lowest since the fall of 2011. At the same time, market experts predicted an increase in the index to 67.5 points.

    Meanwhile, the announcement of a higher-than-expected increase in inflation in America brought additional tension to the markets due to the expectation of an imminent tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

    Amid expectations of decisive steps from the US Federal Reserve, stock market participants began to rotate investments between its sectors. So, traders invest in shares of cyclical companies, getting rid of the securities of the giants of the technology sector.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Forecast for AUD/USD on February 15, 2022

    Over the past day, the situation on the Australian dollar has not changed. The price tried to reach the target level of 0.7065, but returned to its original positions. Now we are waiting for a second such attempt, the target of 0.7065 remains relevant. The 0.6950 level is a promising target, which coincides (at the moment) with the lower border of the descending channel of the Marlin Oscillator.

    On the four-hour chart, just like a day ago, the price is gathering strength to overcome the support of the MACD line at the price of 0.7120. Consolidation below it will reopen the target level of 0.7065. The Marlin Oscillator is in a downward position.

    Forecast for EUR/USD on February 15, 2022

    Yesterday's decline in the euro amounted to 44 points. The lower daily shadow reached the MACD line, but there was no consolidation either under it or under the price level of 1.1300. Well, since the delay occurred in the range of the monthly consolidation of December 2021, then a sideways movement is likely for another one or two days. Overcoming yesterday's low (1.1280), which will correspond to the breakthrough of the MACD line, will open the target at 1.1060. A reversal of the euro into growth is possible, but the signal level is very high - this is the high of February 10 at 1.1495. Before crossing this level, strong chaotic movements in the range of 1.1300-1.1496 are very likely. But such movements in themselves will already be a sign of further growth of the euro, to the target range of 1.1700/22. Downward movement is expected to be smooth.

    On a four-hour scale, the price is consolidating at 1.1300. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator also lies sideways. Price and oscillator in downward trend zones. A change in trends may occur when the price goes above the MACD line, above 1.1364. This will be a sign of its further movement towards 1.1496. But, based on the situation on the daily chart, such a local growth may turn out to be false. We are waiting for the development of the situation.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Bitcoin rises sharply and crypto investors buy lesser-known altcoins

    On Tuesday, Bitcoin soared by 5% overnight and jumped above $44,000. According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of digital asset data, the capitalization of the flagship virtual asset rose to $833 billion in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin's main competitor, Ethereum, followed the trend of the crypto market's leader and rose by 6.73% to $3,112 in 24 hours.

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $44,168.

    At the end of last week, BTC rose to January's high of $45,800. Since then, the main cryptocurrency has been recovering from January's collapse to a low of $32,900 last seen in summer of 2021.

    Experts say the main reason for the strong growth of the cryptocurrency market and other risky assets is the weakening of geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

    On Tuesday, the market surged amid the Russian Defense Ministry's announcement that the Russian Armed Forces had returned from the exercises to their permanent home bases. At the end of last week, the White House said that Russian troops were concentrated on the border with Ukraine and claimed that Russia was preparing an invasion.

    Since the beginning of 2021, the crypto market has been showing high correlation with other risky assets, in particular - with securities. Thus, due to the decline of global stock markets on Monday, Bitcoin also plummeted significantly, despite the high oscillation of quotations throughout the trading sessions. According to analysts of the crypto market, this situation occurs due to the growing institutionalization of the sector.

    At the same time, many crypto-experts still perceive digital assets as a safe haven that can preserve its value in times of high volatility.

    By the way, last week institutional investors, while continuing to invest in BTC and Ethereum, began to actively invest in little-known altcoins. Thus, Terra, Tezos and Cosmos tokens were among the favorites of the cryptocurrency market. As a result, traders invested $2.2 million, $0.9 million and $0.6 million in the above-mentioned assets, respectively. The cryptocurrency market added $75 million thanks to large institutional investors.

    The highest share of $25 million was invested in BTC, while the leading altcoin - Ethereum - unexpectedly received $21 million from institutional investors, thus interrupting a two-month period of capital outflow.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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