Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

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  1. #1001
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    Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 19, 2022

    Here are the details of the economic calendar on January 19, 2022:

    The only news in the macroeconomic calendar yesterday was the indicators on the UK labor market, which came out not bad at all. Here, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%. At the same time, the number of applications for benefits in the period of December fell by 43.3 thousand, with a forecast of 38.6 thousand.

    Only the employment data have a different result. It only rose by 60 thousand against the predicted growth of 125 thousand. Meanwhile, the growth of wages slowed down from 4.9% to 4.2%, which is noticeably worse than the forecast of 4.3%. This served as clear negativity in the report.

    As a result, the overbought pound did not react in any way to the report on the labor market and continued to decline.

    In terms of the information flow yesterday afternoon, reports began to arrive about a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in Germany. This was the impetus for speculation in the market, which led to a sharp weakening of the euro.

    January 19 economic calendar:

    The UK's inflation data was published today at 7:00 Universal time, where it rose from 5.1% to 5.4%, with a forecast of 5.2%. Rising consumer prices once again prove that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates.

    During the US trading session, the construction sector data of the United States will be published. The number of building permits issued, as well as the volume of construction of new homes, is expected to fall.

    This is not the best signal for the US economy, but it is still unknown whether this will be a signal for the US dollar to sell-off.

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on January 19:

    There is currently a small pullback, which is more like a price stagnation in the range of 1.1310/1.1335. Therefore, it is worth considering an acceleration strategy, where the current stagnation will serve as a lever in the market.

    We concretize the above details into trading signals:

    Sell positions should be considered after holding the price above 1.1340 with the prospect of moving to 1.1370.

    Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.1310 with the prospect of moving to 1.1280.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on January 19:

    In this situation, a stagnation-pullback relative to the level of 1.3600 is possible. This move is still considering the possibility of resuming upward inertia, which will lead to a complete change of trading interests.

    At the same time, to prolong the correction, it is enough to stay below the level of 1.3570. This step will open up the possibility of a recovery move towards the level of 1.3450.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Most Asia-Pacific indicators show growth

    Today most of Asian indicators demonstrate growth. The Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng indices were up by 0.29% and 2.34% on the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges. Meanwhile, another Chinese indicator - the Shenzhen Composite - declined by 0.35%. The Japanese index Nikkei 225 increased by 1.15%, Korean KOSPI climbed by 0.53%, Australian S&P/ASX 200 went up less than others by 0.14%.

    China's central bank decided to reduce the interest rate to 3.7% from 3.8%. In December 2021, the reduction of the rates occurred for the first time in almost 2 years. This was done in order to reduce the costs of companies and support the economy of the country.

    Chinese companies Country Garden Services Holdings Co. gained 15.76%, Meituan climbed by 8.49% and Haidilao International Holding, Ltd. increased by 7,67%. Xiaomi Corp. and Geely Automobile Holdings, Ltd. also gained 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

    Investor sentiment was also positively affected by the release of economic data from Japan. The data showed that Japan's exports increased by 17.5% in December 2021. At the same time, analysts had expected an increase in exports by 16%. Economists attribute export growth to increased demand for steel, automobiles and semiconductors, as well as settlement of supplies. Imports increased by 41.1%, but according to expectations, their growth is estimated at 42.8%.

    Among Japanese companies, Konami Holdings Corp. increased by 6.02%, Nexon Co. raised by 5.96% and Itochu Corp. gained 5,17%. Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. and Nintendo Co., Ltd. rose by 2.3% and 2.9%, respectively.

    At the same time, traders remain concerned about the spread of coronavirus in the world and the tightening of restrictive measures, which many states are forced to take. The closest attention is focused on China's attempts to reduce the number of COVID-19 infections to a minimum on the eve of the Chinese New Year and the Winter Olympics.

    Following the growth of the Korean stock exchange, Kia Corp. increased by 0.1% and Hyundai Motor Co. gained 0.3%, as well as LG Corp. climbed by 1.3%, while Samsung Electronics Co. fell by 0.1%.

    Australia's unemployment rate fell. According to the latest data released last month, unemployment fell to 4.2% from 4.6%. This was due to the removal of restrictive measures aimed at preventing of the spread of COVID-19. Notably, this figure is the lowest for the last 14 years. According to forecasts, it should have decreased only by 0.1%, to 4.5%.

    Amid this positive news, BHP Group securities increased by 3.1% and Rio Tinto - by 3.2%.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Robinhood will launch cryptocurrency wallets

    The company's blog posts on Thursday revealed that Robinhood Markets Inc is deploying cryptocurrency wallets for 1,000 users, allowing them to send and receive cryptocurrencies through their brokerage accounts.

    Last year, the Menlo Park-based online brokerage laid out plans to start testing cryptocurrency wallets with a goal to wider use in 2022.

    Out of the 1.6 million people on the crypto wallet waiting list, the top 1,000 can now exchange their cryptocurrency from Robinhood for external crypto wallets.

    The new feature also connects digital asset owners to the blockchain ecosystem.

    According to the company's terms, Beta testers will have a daily limit of $2,999 for total withdrawals and 10 transactions. They will also need to enable two-factor authentication.

    Robinhood plans to expand the program to 10,000 customers by March 2022.

    Robinhood's customers have long been asking for cryptocurrency wallets, which allow them to participate more broadly in blockchain-based ecosystems to be able to buy virtual assets such as non-fungible tokens (NTF) on the Ethereum network.

    The company will be required to report fourth-quarter earnings on January 27.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    CFTC report: US dollar's massive sell-off before the FOMC meeting. Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP

    Monday's focus is on PMI reports from the US, the UK, and the Eurozone, which will answer the question of whether inflationary pressures are weakening or increasing, as well as what impacts the sharply increased speed of the spread of COVID-19 has had on the economy.

    According to the CFTC report published on Friday, the US dollar underwent massive sales during the reporting week. The cumulative long position decreased by 7 billion, which is one of the largest weekly dollar drawdowns since the summer of 2020, and fell to 13 billion the lowest since September.

    Almost all currencies, except the Swiss franc, increased their positions against the US currency. The pound and the euro are having the largest surge.

    Markets show mixed dynamics. Stock indices ended the past week in the red zone, a number of industrial commodities (oil, copper, iron ore) were also slightly in the red zone, and UST yields declined and dragged the global yield indices with them. So far, it can be said that the markets are noticeably losing enthusiasm as the Fed meeting approaches, which means an increase in demand for defensive assets.

    EUR/USD

    ECB President, Christine Lagarde, said at the virtual conference in Davos that the Central Bank did not expect GDP growth, labor market recovery, and high inflation at the beginning of 2021. However, she does not see a threat due to rising inflation and assumes that it will decline to 2% by the end of this year.

    The CFTC report showed a sharp increase in demand for the euro, whose net long position increased by 2.627 billion to 3.48 billion during the reporting week. The estimated price continues to grow steadily.

    If we compare the plans of the Fed and the ECB, they are clearly not in favor of the euro. The Fed is likely to start raising rates in March and raise them 4 times by the end of the year, and then start reducing the balance sheet by the middle of the year. On the contrary, the ECB is expected to complete the PEPP program in March. The APP program will also end within a year, but the ECB rate increase is not expected at all until the end of 2023. Accordingly, the rate differential will increase significantly in favor of the US dollar, which will lead to a decrease in the EUR/USD exchange rate in the middle and long term.

    But why aren't investors frantically buying up the US dollar then?

    Nordea did a bit of research into the impact of the Fed's rate hike cycle on the euro and came to the surprising conclusion that there was no direct correlation. If there was a direct correlation (the Fed raised rates by a total of 175p and the euro fell from 1.20 to 0.90) in 1999/2000, then in the 2004/06 increase cycle, there was no connection at all between the rate and the euro rate. Moreover, after the end of the Fed cycle, the EUR/USD rate turned out to be higher than before the start of the cycle.

    Accordingly, it is too naive to expect that the euro will react strictly according to the rule. The increase in the settlement price so far only indicates that there is no growth in demand for the US dollar, despite the tightening of rhetoric. Technically, the euro did not manage to go above the channel border, which means a signal for an attempt to update the low, but the CFTC report and the dynamics of GKO rates indicate the opposite. Focusing on investors' behavior, it can be assumed that a decline in the EUR/USD after the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting will not happen. The support level of 1.1186 formed at the end of November will remain. A movement to 1.1484 is more likely.

    GBP/USD

    The pound is under short-term pressure after the release of weak retail sales data on Friday, lowering inflationary expectations. On the contrary, the CFTC report turned out to be confidently bullish for the pound, the growth of long positions by 2.465 billion allowed to completely liquidate the net short position. The settlement price is directed strictly upwards.

    The possibility of Boris Johnson's voluntary resignation did not arouse any interest among traders, since it is such a small event in the current realities. It can be assumed that if the downward correction ends, the pound will try to find support in the 1.3520/30 zone and continue growth with the target of 1.3830. The breakdown of this resistance will technically mean an upturn.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    European stock markets posted their worst drop since November 2021

    The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 3.81% and amounted to 456.36 points.

    The French CAC 40 index lost almost 4%, the German DAX - 3.8%, the British FTSE 100 - 2.6%. Spain's IBEX 35 and Italy's FTSE MIB were down 3.2% and 4%, respectively.

    Dutch consumer goods and medical equipment maker Royal Philips NV fell 4.6%. The company in the 4th quarter of 2021 reduced net profit by 75%, revenue - by 6%, which turned out to be worse than expected.

    French Kering, which owns several luxury brands, fell 3%. Kering will sell Sowind Group SA, which owns Swedish watchmakers Girard-Perregaux and Ulysse Nardin, to the company's top management.

    Meanwhile, Unilever Plc rose 7.3% after The Wall Street Journal reported that hedge fund Trian Fund Management LP, led by billionaire Nelson Peltz, bought a stake in the company.

    Bicycle maker Accell soared 25% on the news that the company was bought by a consortium of investors led by KKR fund for 1.6 billion euros.

    Vodafone Group's market value rose 4.5% on rumors of a possible merger with carrier Three in the UK and Iliad in Italy.

    The main attention of the market is drawn to the meeting of the Committee on operations on the open markets of the US Federal Reserve, which will begin on Tuesday and end on Wednesday. As expected, following the meeting, the Fed may signal its readiness to raise the key interest rate as early as March.

    Also a negative factor is the growing tension in Eastern Europe. The US State Department on Sunday recommended that American citizens in Ukraine leave the country immediately, citing an excessive increase in Russia's military presence on the border.

    The UK on Sunday also accused Russia of trying to bring a leadership loyal to the Kremlin to power in Ukraine.

    Meanwhile, NATO is putting its military on alert and sending more ships and fighter jets to Eastern Europe as Russian forces build up near Ukraine.

    Renne Friedman, senior economist at Exante, said the poor start to the week follows a fairly bearish week for risk assets. Investors were unimpressed by US banks' fourth-quarter quarterly reports, and besides, fears about the Fed's tightening policy and high inflation in various regions of the world put significant pressure on risk appetite.

    In addition, investors are evaluating the latest batch of statistics on the change in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the euro area in January.

    The consolidated PMI of 19 eurozone countries fell to 52.4 points this month from 53.3 points in December, according to preliminary data from Markit Economics. Analysts at Trading Economics on average expected the indicator to drop to 52.6 points.

    The PMI in the services sector in the euro area fell to 51.2 from 53.1, while in the manufacturing sector the indicator rose to 59 from 58 last month.

    The consolidated PMI of Germany in January rose to 54.3 points from 49.9 points last month. The indicator is again above the 50-point mark, which separates the growth of business activity from the recession.

    In the service sector in Germany, PMI rose to 52.2 from 48.7 points, in the manufacturing industry - up to 60.5 points from 57.4.

    The January value of the consolidated PMI of France amounted to 52.7 points compared to 55.8 points in December. The index of business activity in the service sector fell to 53.1 from 57 points, in the manufacturing industry - to 55.5 from 55.6 points.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Most Asian stock markets are trading in the red

    The Federal Reserve may signal to markets that it is ready to start raising interest rates in March following its January meeting, which ends on Wednesday, analysts say. This will be the first rate hike since 2018.

    The easing of monetary policy was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. But now the Fed may also say that it is considering other options for tightening monetary policy to combat rising inflation, CNBC notes.

    A growing number of Fed officials and Wall Street economists see the possibility of more than three hikes in the base interest rate by the US Central Bank this year against the backdrop of a significant rise in consumer prices. They explain these forecasts as signals that inflation in the US, which is at a maximum for almost 40 years, affects all segments of the economy, while the labor market is growing rapidly.

    The Japanese Nikkei fell by 0.4% by 8:36 GMT+2.

    Among the components of the index, the shares of Idemitsu Kosan Co. are the leaders of decline. Ltd. (-8.8%), Shionogi & Co. Ltd. (-5.9%) and Ricoh Co. Ltd. (-4.9%).

    Shares of the metallurgical company Japan Steel Works Ltd. lose 2.5%, shares of IT company Rakuten Group Inc. grow by 0.7%, investment SoftBank Group Corp. add 1.8%.

    The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell by 0.1% by 8:45 GMT+2, while the Shanghai Shanghai Composite rose by 0.3%.

    Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd (-7.4%), Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. are the decline leaders in Hang Seng. (-6.5%) and Li Ning Co. Ltd.(-3.08%).

    Shares of automaker Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are cheaper by 2.3%, technology company JD.com Inc. - grow by 1.4%.

    South Korean Kospi lost 0.15% by 8:45 GMT+2.

    Shares of automaker Kia Corp. (KS:000270) up 1.8%, shares of Hyundai Motor Co. decrease by 2.1%.

    The cost of chip and electronics manufacturer Samsung Electronics Co. is down 0.8%, its rival LG Corp. grows by 0.1%.

    Australian stock exchanges are closed due to the holiday (Australia Day).
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Powell pushed the dollar up

    The US dollar rose after Jerome Powell's rather harsh statements during a meeting of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Operations Committee on Wednesday, which cannot be said about the stock market, whose indicators have noticeably declined.

    So, the American regulator, as expected by analysts, left the interest rate in the country unchanged. The first and, perhaps, the main thesis of the meeting sounds like this: the right time to raise interest rates is about to come. The completion of the asset purchase program will take place a couple of weeks earlier than expected, namely in early March. The reduction of the balance sheet will occur from the beginning of the rate hike cycle. The situation in the economy and labor market of the United States is already noticeably better. The unemployment rate has finally significantly decreased, so there is no point in delaying the tightening of the PEPP.

    It is worth noting that Powell, in an uncharacteristic manner, spoke rather harshly about the economy during the meeting, and did not calm the already noticeably fallen market. He finally admitted that inflation in the US is too high and its growth can no longer be called a temporary phenomenon. Powell stressed that the US economy no longer needs such large support from the Federal Reserve.

    Bank of Singapore strategist Moh Siong Sim said that the market expects rates to rise at least four times this year, that is, one increase per quarter. At the same time, J. Powell noted in his speech that he does not exclude more than four stages.

    After the meeting of the American regulator and the subsequent press conference, Powell's dollar exchange rate fluctuated for a while, but eventually returned to the levels that preceded the announcement of the results. On Thursday, greenback quotes are trading at the highest level in many weeks. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies by the time of preparation of the material increased by 0.92% to 96.81.

    Paired with the single European currency, the dollar rose to a two-month high of 1.1195. Against the Japanese yen, it was able to maintain growth at the level of 114.81. Paired with the kiwi, the dollar rose to its highest level in more than a year, and against the Australian dollar rose to a seven-week peak.

    The pound sterling fell against the dollar by 0.29%. At the time of preparation of the material, it is trading at $ 1.3422, while being in a delicate balance. The movement of the pound is limited by the situation with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is under pressure because he attended parties during the general quarantine in the country. Traders' close attention is also focused on the meeting of the Bank of England, which will be held next week.

    Speech by Powell had a strong impact on risky assets. So, Thursday morning was marked by the fact that in Asia, the leading indexes are falling within 3.1%, futures for the main American indexes fell by more than 1%.

    The Fed's harsh rhetoric on Wednesday also had an impact on US stock indices, which fell sharply last night. On Thursday morning, futures on them lost more than 1%.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Crypto analysts doubt Bitcoin's bright future

    Last week, the leading digital asset declined to $32,900 for the first time since the summer of 2021. However, by the end of last week, BTC increased by 7.3% reaching $37,700.

    The recent growth of the US stock market triggered the rebound of Bitcoin. This growth has interrupted the negative dynamics for the first time after three weeks of steady decline. In addition, this once again emphasized the increased correlation of exchange and virtual assets lately.

    The leading altcoins followed the growth of the flagship digital asset. Thus, during the week Ethereum jumped by 7%, and Binance Coin increased by 4.6%. At the same time, the total capitalization of the crypto market rose by 1.7% to $1.79 trillion.

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering at $37,000 and its capitalization stands at $706 billion, according to CoinGecko, the world's largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregator.

    Despite a temporary stabilization, the situation in the crypto market remains extremely unstable, with BTC risking a third consecutive month of decline. Thus, in January, the first cryptocurrency has already lost about 20%, and the collapse from the November highs exceeded 45%.

    The unpredictable trading of the crypto market makes experts give mixed forecasts. The former head of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes said that in the near future, Bitcoin may collapse to $20,000 once the support of $28,000-$30,000 is broken through.

    This level is important for market participants, as it prevented the collapse of BTC in the summer of last year when the value of the coin fell to $28,000. The reason for Bitcoin's large-scale collapse was the largest hash rate drop in the history of crypto-assets amid the mass relocation of miners from China.

    By the way, crypto-enthusiasts began to feel more pessimistic about the endless growth of bitcoin. Thus, analysts at JPMorgan, one of the world's largest banks, reduced the fair valuation of BTC to $38,000 from $150,000.

    According to JPMorgan, the main reason for such a negative outlook on the future of the main cryptocurrency is high volatility, which limits the use of digital assets by institutional investors.

    Experts stressed that the recent sharp pullback by 50% in bitcoin from its November all-time high was a signal to cancel the addition of BTC to the investment portfolios of many institutions, funds, and organizations.

    Earlier experts of the bank were betting on the convergence of Bitcoin volatility with gold volatility and the equation of their shares in portfolios of investors. According to the bank's scenario for 2022, the volatility ratio of the main cryptocurrency to gold may reduce by two times.

    However, in their latest report, analysts at JPMorgan lowered the price of Bitcoin to 1/4 of $150,000, that is, to $38,000. In addition, the bank's experts did not rule out a further drop in the value of the main cryptocurrency in the absence of market buy signals.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 1, 2022

    February 1 economic calendar:

    Europe will release its labor market data today, where the unemployment rate may decline from 7.2% to 7.1%. This is a positive factor that can support the euro locally.

    The final data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Europe, the UK, and the US for January is unlikely to put pressure on the market.

    JOLTS data on open vacancies in the US will be published during the American trading session. The total number of which may rise from 10,562 thousand to 11,075 thousand. If the data is confirmed, the US dollar may receive support.

    Time targeting

    The index of business activity in the European manufacturing sector - 9:00 Universal time

    The index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector - 9:30 Universal time

    EU unemployment rate - 10:00 Universal time

    The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector - 14:45 Universal time

    The number of open vacancies in the US labor market (JOLTS) - 15:00 Universal time

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on Feb 1:

    According to the correction structure, the price movement is still relevant in the market, but its scale indicates the possibility of early completion. So while working on the euro's growth, it is worth preparing to reduce the volume of long positions, which will lead to the resumption of the downward trend. The area of 1.1270/1.1300 is considered as a variable resistance level.analytics61f8de57430a4.jpg

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on Feb 1:

    The pullback stage is still relevant in the market. As a result, traders do not rule out the pound's slight strengthening towards 1.3500. At this moment, a gradual reduction in the volume of long positions is possible, which will eventually lead to the end of the pullback stage and the continuation of the downward cycle.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 2, 2022

    February 2 economic calendar:

    Europe will release its inflation data today, which may slow down from 5.0% to 4.5%. Given the ECB's vague position, the decline in inflation is in no way a bad factor, but in this case, tomorrow's meeting may remain unchanged since the European regulator sees a decline in consumer prices.

    ADP's employment report in the US will be published during the US trading session, which may increase by 207 thousand. On the one hand, the figure is not small, but compared to the previous month, where there was an increase of 807 thousand, speculators may be afraid. This will negatively affect the US dollar.

    Time targeting:

    EU inflation - 10:00 Universal time

    US ADP report - 13:15 Universal time

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on Feb 2:

    The correction is still relevant in the market, despite the resistance area. Therefore, the quote may continue to move within 1.1270 /1.1320, locally leaving the resistance zone.

    The signal for the prolongation of the upward cycle will be received if the price holds above the level of 1.1330 in a four-hour period.

    The signal about the completion of the correction will be considered by traders if the price holds below the level of 1.1230 in a four-hour period.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on Feb 2:

    The corrective course remains in the market, where traders do not exclude a subsequent increase in the value of the pound if the price holds above the level of 1.3530. In this case, it will likely move in the direction of 1.3600.

    Traders will consider an alternative scenario of market development in case the price returns below the level of 1.3480. This step may indicate the primary signal to the end of the correction.
    Regards, PR-Manager ForexMart

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