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    Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
    Date : 17th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th September 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    The trade war appears to be ratcheting up once again amid contradictory signals from the Trump administration. Last week a WSJ story suggested that the Chinese had been invited back to the negotiating table by a trade team headed by the more moderate Mnuchin, though Trump later tweeted that there wasn’t any pressure to make a deal with China. Wall Street responded bullishly to the apparent olive branch and shrugged off the tweet on balance, even after Trump indicated his advisors would be instructed to proceed with the $200 bln in tariffs. This has “increased tail risk” according to JP Morgan analysis in terms of the range of possible outcomes, which will dictate just how much growth may slow, if implemented, and inflation may increase – from nominal changes to significant swings. Fed policy is seen remaining on track in the meantime, as the two effects tend to cancel each other out and US employment and inflation mandates continue to punch in roughly on target.

    United States: The US economy remains firm hurtling toward the end of Q3 after a strong 4.2% GDP growth pace in Q2. All survey participants are forecasting another quarter-point tightening in December, too, and most recent Fedspeak has been comfortable with quarterly hikes heading into 2019 as well.

    The US economic calendar kicks off with an update on the Empire State index, seen declining to 22.0 in September (Monday), from a 10-month high of 25.6 in August. The NAHB housing market index is forecast (Tuesday) to rise to 68 in September from 67 in August. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday), and along with housing starts are expected to rise 4.5% in August, to a 1.220 mln rate, after a 0.9% gain to 1.168 mln in July. August building permits are estimated to rise 0.9% to 1.315 mln, following a similar gain in July. The current account balance is forecast to narrow to -$103.3 bln in Q2 (Wednesday), from -$124.1 bln in Q1 reflecting strength in exports but a flat import figure. The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September (Thursday), from a 2-year low of 11.9 and initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 8k to 212k in the week ended September 15, following a 204k reading in the week of September 8-lowest since December 1969. Existing home sales are anticipated to rebound 1.1% in August to a 5.40 mln pace (Thursday), after declines in the prior four months. Sales declined 6.6% in Q2, after a 6.1% drop in Q1, amid lopsided hurricane rebuilding comparisons the year prior. And the leading economic index is expected to rise 0.5% in August, after a 0.6% gain in July and a 0.5% increase in June.

    Canada: Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to expand 1.0% in July after the 1.1% gain in June. CPI (Friday) is projected to be flat (0.0%) in August (m/m, nsa) after the 0.5% surge in July, slowing the annual growth rate to 2.9% in August from 3.0% y/y in July. The three core measures are expected to remain near a 2.0% annual growth pace in August. Retail sales (Friday) are seen rising 0.5% in July after the 0.2% decline in June. Retail sales excluding autos are projected to expand 0.6% in July following the 0.1% dip in June. Existing homes sales for August are expected on Monday. The ADP employment survey is due Thursday. Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Freeland is expected to return to Washington to resume high level NAFTA talks, which could reach a provisional framework.

    Europe: Last week, ECB confirmed the tapering of net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and still intends to phase out QE by year end, but with ECB maintaining its stock for now and redemptions becoming more important, comments from ECB President Draghi on Wednesday are likely to stress again that the central bank is still maintaining a still very expansionary policy. Meanwhile, the data calendar focuses on preliminary PMI numbers for September (Friday). The German ZEW came in a tad higher than expected, but German orders numbers were pretty dismal and the geopolitical risk backdrop has not improved significantly. Against that background Eurozone readings are expected to slightly change from the August round with growth and job creation ongoing but slowing down as respondents increasingly note the uncertainties surrounding the longer term outlook. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and the services reading is expected to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend. Final August Eurozone HICP (Monday) inflation meanwhile is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 2.0% y/y, but comes with a slight bias to the downside, after some downward revisions to national data.

    UK: Brexit negotiations, now very much at the sharp end, will continue, and will also no doubt continue to be a source of turbulence for sterling markets. Talks will continue this week. The EU’s 28 leaders are due to discuss Brexit at a summit in Salzburg this Thursday, where they are expected to agree to hold an extraordinary meeting in November to sign off on a deal on future relations. Another key event to watch will be the Conservative Party conference, which will take place from September 20 to October 3. The data calendar will be highlighted by August inflation data (Wednesday) and August retail sales numbers (Thursday). The headline CPI is anticipated to ebb back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, with core prices seen similarly nudging lower, to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% y/y. As for retail sales, a 0.2% m/m contraction in August should be reported, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior.

    Japan: BoJ announces policy on Wednesday after its two-day meeting. The Bank will likely leave its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and leave YCC (yield curve control), which guides the 10-year JGB around 0%, in place. The data calendar doesn’t kick off until Wednesday, when the August trade report is due. August national CPI (Friday) is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.9% overall, and at 0.9% y/y from 0.8% on a core basis. The July all-industry index is also due Friday.

    China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.

    Australia: Another sparse docket is highlighted by the minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting (Tuesday). RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent discusses “Money Creation” at the Reserve Bank’s Topical Talk Event for Educators. The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to decline 0.6% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% drop in Q1.

    New Zealand: GDP (Thursday) is projected to expand at a 0.6% pace in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% rise in Q1. The current account (Wednesday) is seen moving to a -NZ$1.0 bln deficit in Q2 from the NZ$0.2 bln surplus in Q1.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #642
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    Date : 18th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    FX Update: Forex and stock markets are taking the as-expected news of Trump’s trade war escalation in their stride. The tariffs will start at 10% from next Monday before rising to 25% on January 1. Trump has also threatened to tariff the remaining $267 bln worth of Chinese imports into the US if Beijing retaliates, which looks likely to be the case. USDJPY dipped to a low of 111.66, the lowest level seen since last Thursday, before recouping to the 112.00 level, putting the pair at net firmer levels on the day. Even the AUDJPY cross, which has proven to be sensitive to the worsening Sino-US trade war, rebounded out of a three-session low to net higher levels on the day.

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.994%, after pulling back from levels above 3% yesterday. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.1 bp at 0.107% after coming back from yesterday’s holiday. Japanese markets rallied in catch up trade and Topix and Nikkei gained 1.90% and 1.63% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is down -0.76%, and while Chinese equities initially seemed to shrug off the confirmation of additional Trump tariffs worth USD 200 bln, they have now pared early gains and are little changed – the Hang Seng up 0.01%, and the Shanghai Comp down -0.04%. PBOC’s alarm bells are clearly ringing louder and the bank has injected 200 bln Yuan with reverse repos today, on top of MLF operations that added 265 bln of new one year loans. Bloomberg highlighted looming challenges in the form of quarter end cash demand, and huge maturities in Q4 for MLF loans and corporate debt. At the same time, some feel that after the sharp correction in Chinese equities and with mid-term elections looming for Trump, a sustained recovery for Chinese stocks may be on the horizon, especially since markets do not appear to have priced in much of a risk-fallout for US equities. US stock futures are heading south today and oil prices are down with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.54 per barrel.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * US Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to come out at 0.4% MoM in August, compared to 0.5% in July.

    * Japan Merchandise Trade Balance – Expectations – This important figure for the Japanese economy usually has a large impact on the currency. August’s trade balance is expected to deteriorate to YEN-468Bln, compared to YEN-231.9Bln in July, despite an expected increase in exports.

    * Canadian Manufacturing Sales – Expectations – Sales in Canada are expected to have slowed to 1.0% m/m in July, from 1.1% in June.

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 19th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    European Outlook: Global yields continue to trend higher as stock markets shrug off the latest escalation of the US-Sino trade spat. 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.480% in early trade, the 2-year is up 0.4 bp at -0.531%. 10-year Treasury yields pulled back from yesterday’s highs, but remains above the 3% mark at 3.0465% and 10-year JGB yields rose 0.5 bp to 0.112% as stock markets continued to rally during the Asian session after a strong close in Asia overnight. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher with US futures ahead of key inflation data for the UK today, which is expected to show the headline rate falling back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. The data calendar also has Eurozone current account data and a German 10-year Bund auction.

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.7 bp, but are still holding above the 3% mark at 3.05%. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.5 bp at 0.112%, despite the BoJ decision that, as expected, left policy unchanged. Yields remain elevated as stock markets extend their rally and investors look past the latest round of the US-Sino trade spat that saw Beijing announcing retaliatory tariffs on USD 60 bln of US goods and Trump threatening duties on virtually all imports. China’s Premier Li Keqiang said he won’t let the currency devalue to stimulate exports. With traders buying into the belief that a negotiated solution will be found eventually, Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 1.53% and 1.33% respectively despite the uptick in yields. The CSI 300 is up 1.54%, after already rising more than 2% yesterday, and the Hang Seng gained 1.25%. US stock futures are narrowly mixed, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading just under USD 70 per barrel.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK Core Consumer Price Index – Expectations –Inflationary pressures are expected to have eased a bit in the UK and consensus forecasts estimate inflation to stand at 1.8% y/y, versus 1.9% y/y.

    * US Housing Starts and Building Permits- Expectations – Housing starts should continue to move upwards according to consensus forecasts, while building permits are expected to remain at the same level as last month.

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 20th September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th September 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 3.061% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.110%. Yields have come quite a way over the past week and Treasury yields are still holding above the 3% mark, but the stock market rally started to stutter during the Asian session with indices turning mixed. The Dow Jones still managed a solid gain yesterday, but the NASDAQ closed slightly lower and in Asia stocks drifted. Japanese indices traded near three-month highs, but at these levels it seems investors are getting cautious as trade concerns continue to cloud over the outlook. Nikkei and Topix are down -0.045 and -0.12% respectively. It would not be the first time that Chinese indices rebound late in session, but it seems for now markets are consolidating and waiting for further news. US futures are also narrowly mixed, oil prices are higher and the WTI future is trading at USD 71.63 per barrel.

    FX Action: USDJPY has drifted lower, posting a two-day low at 112.07 in a moderate move driven by a softer Dollar. Risk appetite has continued to hold up with Asian stock markets gaining, albeit modestly, for the most part, and the main Chinese indexes lifting out of negative territory in the first hour of trading after the lunch break. Japanese PM Abe won a leadership challenge by a landslide, as expected, which puts him on track to becoming Japan’s longest serving prime minister. In the bigger view, USDJPY is currently trading in the upper reaches of a broadly sideways range that’s been unfolding for some 10 weeks now. Great odds have been placed for a sustained move downward rather than a sustained move upward as China looks to be digging for trade war escalation (at least until after the midterm elections in the US), which could lead to an increased safe haven premium being put on the Yen. USDJPY has resistance at 112.44-45, and support at 111.77-80.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * SNB Rate & Monetary Policy – Expectations – The SNB is widely expected to maintain its expansionary policy, with the deposit rate to be left -0.75% and the 3-month Libor range Libor at -1.25% to -0.25%. The central bank is also expected to reiterate that it will “remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary while taking the overall currency situation into consideration”.

    * UK Retail Sales – Expectations – The Retail sales are anticipated a 0.2% m/m contraction in August, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior.

    * US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September, from a 2-year low of 11.9.

    Support and Resistance Levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 21st September 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st September 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets continued to rally during the Asian session after a record close on Wall Street yesterday. Risk appetite is back after robust US data yesterday added to hopes that the fallout from the latest round of US-China tariffs can be contained and that there will eventually be deals on trade and Brexit, despite little progress at the informal EU summit yesterday. Improvements in emerging market assets have also helped to underpin confidence with investors buying back into the rout. 10-year Treasury yields moved up 1.3 bp to 3.076%, 10 year JGB yields jumped 1.6 bp to 0.125% and 30-year yields rose 4.4 bp as BoJ cut bond purchases. Topix and Nikkei are up 1.01% and 1.06% respectively underpinned by a weaker Yen, the Hang Seng has gained 1.13% so far and the CSI 300 is up 1.80%. US stock futures are equally broadly higher, Oil prices are slightly lower and the November WTI future is trading at USD 70.25 per barrel. Today’s calendar includes Eurozone PMI readings as well as public finance data for the UK.

    FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to a fresh two-month high at 112.80 amid a backdrop of a coursing risk-on theme in global markets. The USA30 and USA500 hit record highs yesterday, and Asian stocks have rallied robustly across the board. JP225 hit a 4-month high, and the Shanghai Composite a two-week high, with both showing gains of 1% or more. Expectations for China to turn the fiscal stimulus tap, among other measures, have been helping underpin sentiment in Asia, while the unexpectedly low starting tariff rate of 10% in Trump’s latest move on Chinese imports this week, along with tech sector exemptions, have helped buoy sentiment Global fundamentals are otherwise solid, despite the threat from the trade war escalation (with Beijing not expected to negotiate until after the mid-term elections in the US).

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * Eurozone Sep. PMI – Expectations – The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and expect the services reading to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend.

    * Canada CPI & Retail Sales – Expectations – CPI is expected to hold steady in August after the 0.5% surge in July. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.9% y/y pace in August, easing slightly from the 3.0% pace in July that was the top of BoC’s 1-3% target range. Canada retail sales values are expected to rise 0.5% in July after the 0.2% drop in June.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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