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  1. #601
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    Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
    Date : 16th July 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th July 2018.




    Main Macro Events This Week

    Politics will continue to dominate the landscape in early Q3, pretty much as it’s done for most of the year amid escalating trade tensions. Of course, President Trump’s meeting with President Putin in Helsinki (Monday) is anxiously awaited and follows his meetings last week with PM May and NATO. While the political uncertainties have left the markets choppy, signs of strengthening US growth have overshadowed potential drags from trade and have provided global support to equities.

    United States: Fed Chairman Powell’s Monetary Policy testimony (Tuesday) would normally be the key event. However, with the FOMC unlikely to divert from its gradualist policy path anytime soon, and especially amid trade uncertainties, attention will shift to earnings announcements and data. The end result of the testimony, however, should support expectations for another 25 bp hike at the September 25, 26 FOMC meeting, while the chances for another tightening in December will be assessed, though that will depend largely on data. Powell will reprise his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday).

    In terms of economic reports, it’s the June Retail Sales report (Monday) that’s the star. Also due is June Industrial Production (Tuesday), seen rising 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, based on the rise in hours-worked from the jobs report. The Empire State index (Monday) should fall to 20.0 in July from an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) is expected to rise to 23.0 in July after falling to a 19-month low of 19.9 in June. Slated too are Housing Starts (Wednesday), estimated falling 2.2% to 1.320 mln in June, following a 5.0% surge to a new cycle-high of 1.350 mln in May.

    Canada: June Existing Homes Sales report is expected Monday. Manufacturing Shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in May after the 1.3% drop in April. Retail Sales (Friday) are seen snapping back 1.0% in May after the 1.2% loss in April that was blamed on poor weather during the month. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after a 0.1% dip. The CPI (Friday) is expected to slip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the surprisingly slim 0.1% gain in May, as falling gasoline prices impact in June. The annual growth rate is seen at 2.2% (y/y, nsa), matching the 2.2% y/y clip in May. The three core CPI measures are expected to maintain the 1.9% annual rate of expansion in June.

    Europe: Politics have been dominating the agenda last week and this week is unlikely to be different, with Europe not only looking nervously to President Trump’s meeting with President Putin, but also once again to Brussels. So far the focus has been on PM May’s battle to sell her “soft Brexit” vision at home, but she still has to get an agreement with EU leaders. This week’s calendar includes Eurozone trade and current account numbers, which generally don’t have too much market impact, although a strong export number would underpin the central scenario of still robust growth, while at the same time, will fuel the debate on the EU’s and especially Germany’s trade reliance against the background of rising protectionism. The highlight of the data calendar is the final reading of Eurozone June HICP inflation.

    UK: Political developments and Brexit will remain sharply in focus. President Trump’s apparent walking back on Friday of his criticisms of Prime Minister May — after championing Boris Johnson’s credentials as a potential PM in an interview with a Murdoch-owned tabloid newspaper that is wanting to topple PM May — lifted both the Pound and UK yields.

    The data calendar this week is pretty busy, highlighted by monthly Labor data (Tuesday), June Inflation data (Wednesday), and June Retail Sales (Thursday).The labor report expected to show the Unemployment Rate remaining at 4.2%, and Average Household Income also remaining unchanged at a rate of 2.5% y/y in the three months to June. June CPI is expected to tick upward, to 2.6% y/y from the unexpected dip in the prior month to 2.4%, which would be consistent with BoE projections made in its May Inflation Report.

    Japan: The markets are closed Monday. The June Trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 580.5 bln deficit turn to a JPY 580.0 bln surplus as exports likely outpaced imports on a 12-month basis. June national CPI (Friday) is penciled in accelerating to a 0.9% y/y clip overall, from 0.7% in May, as oil prices firmed and JPY softened. The latter has also likely helped push the core rate to 0.8% y/y, from May’s 0.7%. The May all Industry index (Friday) is forecast to fall 0.1% m/m from the prior 1.0% gain.

    Australia: The Employment report (Thursday) takes top billing, where a 15.0k gain is expected in June after the 12.0k rise in May. The Unemployment Rate is projected at 5.4%, matching May and down from 5.6% in April. The minutes of RBA’s July meeting are due Tuesday. To review, RBA held the cash rate steady at 1.50% at the meeting this month and maintained expectations for no change for an extended period.

    New Zealand: The calendar has Q2 CPI (Tuesday), expected to rise 0.6% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. It is expected that the next move will be a rate increase — but the current expectation is for steady policy well into next year. The next meeting is on August 9.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #602
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    Date : 17th July 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Long yields continued to move higher during the Asian session, with 10-year Treasury yields up 0.5bp at 2.864% and 10-year JGB yields up 0.4 bp at 0.033%. Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japanese bourses outperforming after returning from yesterday’s holiday as the Yen declined. Chinese Equities meanwhile sold off amid lingering trade jitters and with investors not convinced that earnings can compensate for the rise in protectionism. Markets are looking ahead to Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony to Congress. Nikkei is currently up 0.78%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.06% and -1.25%. US Stock Futures are narrowly mixed, and Oil prices are little changed at USD 67.99 per barrel.

    FX Update: The Dollar majors have been holding narrow ranges for the most part, with EURUSD, USDJPY, Cable, AUDUSD, and other pairings, showing respective net changes of less than 0.2% on the day so far. EURUSD has been making time in the lower 1.1700s, and USDJPY in the lower 112.00s, after edging out a two-session high of 112.57. The Sterling has held up after the UK government scrapped through four parliamentary votes on its Customs Bill late yesterday, which was seen as a litmus test of the so-called Chequers plan (the Cabinet rubber-stamped plan laying out what it wants out of Brexit). There is another parliamentary vote today. While some hardline Brexiteers MPs are agitating for a no confidence vote in the prime minister, so far they are reported to lack sufficient support, and Boris Johnson, the Brexiteer with the most political weight, has remained on the side lines. Sterling market participants will be watching developments closely.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * BOE Gov Carney Speech

    * UK Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings– Expectations – The Labor report is expected to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, and average household income also remaining unchanged at a rate of 2.5% y/y in the three months to June.

    * US Industrial Production – Expectations – to rise 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, based on the rise in hours-worked from the jobs report.

    * Canadian Manufacturing – Expectations – to rise 0.5% after the 1.3% drop in April.

    * Fed Chair Powell Testimony – Expectations – The Fed chief will likely be grilled on the impacts of trade, but he’ll have to take a wait and see approach there, while noting there are risks to the downside.

    Support and Resistance levels



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #603
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    Date : 18th July 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2018.




    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury and JGB yields moved slightly higher, as is appetite improved and stock markets advanced across Asia with the Fed Chairman Powell injecting fresh life into equity markets with an upbeat assessment of the US economy. Positive leads from the US and a record high in the NASDAQ helped to underpin sentiment in Asia amid mixed earnings reports this week. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.48% and 0.71% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.20% so far and the CSI 300 0.59%, while the ASX is up 0.61%. Improved risk appetite saw 10-year Treasury yields rising 0.5 bp to 2.866% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.7 bp at 0.035%, while yields declined in China, Australia and New Zealand. US stock futures suggest further gains in US markets today. The WTI future is down on the day and trading at USD 67.68 per barrel.

    FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer for a 2nd day, buoyed by an upbeat prognosis of the US economy and outlook by Fed chair Powell yesterday at his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. EURUSD descended to a 3-day low at 1.1631 while USDJPY ascended above 113.00 for the first time since January. AU-USD printed a 1-week low at 0.7363 and USDCAD a 3-week high at 1.3227. Powell’s remarks seemed to hit a sweet spot, having expressed optimism on the growth outlook while being somewhat circumscribed on inflation, which leaves the Fed on course for another 25 bp hike in September, and another in December, but not to the displeasure of equity investors, who have also been encouraged by positive Q2 corporate earnings announcements, and expectations for more to come. In the UK, the Prime Minister once again survived a key vote on a Brexit-related bill by the skin of her teeth last night (although lost one concerning the regulation of medicines after Brexit). So the PM and her government survives, but Brexit process is looking borderline disorderly.

    Charts of the Day



    Main Macro Events Today

    * UK CPI & Retail Sales – Expectations – June CPI is expected to tick upward, to 2.6% y/y from the unexpected dip in the prior month to 2.4%, which would be consistent with BoE projections made in its May Inflation Report. As for Retail Sales, growth of 0.2% m/m in June is anticipated, down from the strong 1.3% m/m growth that was posted in May.

    * Eurozone CPI – Expectations – Eurozone HICP inflation reached 2.0% y/y with the preliminary release, thus hitting ECB’s upper limit for price stability. However, with French as well as Italian HICP rates revised down by 0.1 percentage points with the final numbers, there is the chance of a downward revision to the final reading. Even with a slight downward revision we don’t expect ECB to be changing its key policy parameters which include the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year.

    * US Building Permits – Expectations – estimated to be falling 2.2% to 1.320 mln in June, following a 5.0% surge to a new cycle-high of 1.350 mln in May.

    * Fed Chair Powell Testimony for a 2nd day

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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