Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

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  1. #1251
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    Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
    Date : 3rd October 2021.

    Oil market hold near 7-year high.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    USOIL is trading just over $78 per barrel, while UKOIL has spiked to $82.70, both above the highs seen yesterday after OPEC and its allies confirmed that they will be sticking with previously agreed output increases, rather than extending production further in the light of global energy constraints. However that wasn’t a surprise even though markets initially felt threatened by it! USOIL prices are at 7 year highs while UKOIL is at 3 year highs.

    Given the spike in natural gas prices ahead of the European winter, oil prices will likely also remain underpinned. In the meantime, China angst and stagflation concerns continue to linger, but there are fears that price jumps in wider energy markets will push up oil prices, while capping the recovery not just in the manufacturing sector. Central bank officials are doing their best to calm nerves, but investors remain jittery. OPEC+ will meet again on November 4 and some expect the allies to meet again beforehand to discuss demand.



    Oil prices have already surged more than 50% this year, a rise that has added and could continue adding to inflationary pressures that oil-consuming nations such as the US and India are concerned will derail recovery from the pandemic.

    USOIL’s recent bullish pressures have been extended, breaking the upper weekly Bollinger band at 78.00, and upwards pressure is keeping the outlook bullish. The simple moving averages (SMAs) are extending northwards (20-, 50- and 200-day) endorsing medium term direction, with the overbought condition in the near term indicating a possible correction of the 2-month rally.

    The daily MACD and RSI are positively configured, presenting the possible advent of further bulls, while the short term Stochastic is struggling to be sustained into bullish territory, promoting a near term pullback. If upside defences keep sellers at bay, the price may pullback to test the previous resistance (converted into support band of 68.00-70.00).



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #1252
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    Date : 4th October 2021.

    Oil market hold near 7-year high.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    USD (USDIndex 94.00) recovers key handle after 93.65 lows on Monday & 94.50 10-mth highs last week. Better than expected (61.1) ISM Services PMI data.

    Yields moved higher (10yr closed 1.5290%) now at 1.569% in Asian trades – Yields very much “on notice” following RBNZ. (30-yr at 2.14%). China closed until tomorrow, no new Evergrande news, clock ticking.

    Equities turnaround Tuesday, led by Tech (Nasdaq+1.25%; NFLX+5.21%) USA500 +45.0 (+1.05%) at 4345 (but remains weak) USA500.F lower 4311. Asian equities mixed. VIX closed at 21.45 – trades up 2% at 22.15 now.
    USOil holds record highs $78.95 amid supply bottlenecks & inventory drawdowns. EIA Weekly data later.

    Gold slips on higher yields down to $1752 from $1770 highs yesterday. 20-day MA $1765.

    FX markets USD bid – EURUSD under 1.1600 significantly at 1.1580, Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again at 111.75.

    Overnight RBNZ increased intertest rates by 0.25% to 0.5%. NZD ticked higher but is now the weakest. German factory orders -7.7% M/M (largest decline since April 2020); EST. -2.2%, last month +3.4%. Biden spoke with Xi to cool tensions over Taiwan, pushed additional $3.5tn infra budget on tour of mid-west and backed Powell as criticism grows.

    European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down 33 ticks, US futures also selling off after the RBNZ rate hike cemented tapering fears ahead of key US NFP Friday. Stock markets are concerned by stagflation scenarios & risk that reduction of monetary support will hit the global recovery. DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.7%, US futures also in the red.

    Today – EZ Retail Sales, US ADP Employment Change, Oil Inventories, Fed’s Bostic, US congress to vote on raising debt ceiling, UK PM Johnson speech.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.53%) Initially reacted higher on interest rate rise, to 0.6980 zone only to reverse to 0.6920 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram trending lower & under 0 line, RSI 30.7 & testing OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0068.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 7th October 2021.

    Market Update – October 7 – Stocks Recover, USD Holds, Oil dips.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    USD (USDIndex 94.25) holds at highs, Stocks recover and ADP beat as debt ceiling is likely to be extended to December. Biden & Xi to hold summit before year end, Oil dipped after surprise build in inventories.

    Yields eased a tad (10yr closed 1.5240%) now at 1.54% in Asian trades – Yields very much “on notice” following RBNZ. (30-yr at 2.14%). China remains closed.

    Evergrande news – investor to go private , clock ticking.

    Equities moved higher into close. USA500 +17.0 (+0.41%) at 4363 (but remains weak) USA500.F higher for 3rd day 4375. Asian equities mixed. VIX closed at 21.20 – trades lower at 20.87 now.

    USOil down from record highs $78.95 to $76.50 as inventories surprisingly rose by 2.3 million barrels.

    Gold slips on higher yields down to $1745 now back to $1760; 20-day MA $1765.

    FX markets USD bid – EURUSD 1.1565 from 1.1525, Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again at 111.35 from 111.85 yesterday.

    European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -14 ticks, US futures are also lower. There was also some relief on the energy crunch in Europe and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of more than 1%, outperforming versus US futures, which are also moving higher though, led by a 0.6% rise in the NASDAQ as tech-stocks are back in demand.

    Today – US Weekly Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, ECB Mins & BOC’s Macklem, Fed’s Wiliams.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.33%) Rallied from 0.7225 lows yesterday to test 0.7300 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 63 & moving higher. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0068.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #1254
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    Date : 8th October 2021.

    Market Update – October 8 – Yields Drive Higher Pushing USD & Stocks too.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    * USD (USDIndex 94.30) holds at highs, Stocks & Oil move higher testing key technicals – Yields the driver (5yr at 1.0416% – Feb 2020 high) US debt ceiling extended by $480bn, Weekly Claims and Challenger Job cuts both better than expected. China back at work & big beat for Services PMI (returning to growth at 53.4 from 46.7) – adding to the bid but Taiwan tensions increase. No Evergrande update.

    * US Yields (10yr closed 1.571%) now at 1.596% in Asian trades.

    * Equities moved higher into close. USA500 +36.0 (+0.83%) at 4399 (testing 20-day MA) USA500.F higher for 4th day – but below cash close 4386. Asian equities higher supported by China. VIX closed at 20.00 – trades up at 20.17 now.

    * USOil back to test highs, trades at $79.12, despite inventory surprise on Wednesday.
    * Gold slipped on higher yields down to $1752 now back to $1759; 20-day MA $1765.
    * FX markets USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1546 Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again ( todays biggest mover) at 111.90 from 111.20 lows yesterday.
    Overnight – Mixed JPY data (Earnings Higher, Econ. Sentiment & Spending lower), GER – trade balance; a big miss (exports lower imports higher) +13.0b vs +17.9bn

    European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -22 ticks, slightly underperforming versus Treasury futures, after EZ bonds outperformed yesterday. Markets will now be focusing on the NFP this afternoon, as markets adjust their rate expectations. UK Inflation warnings saw Gilts underperforming yesterday & while Asian stock markets managed to mostly move higher, DAX & FTSE 100 futures are down -0.2% & -0.1% respectively, while US futures are narrowly mixed, with the NASDAQ underperforming.

    Today – US & Canadian labour market reports, ECB’s Panetta & BoE’s Tenreyro.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.28%) Rallied from 111.20 lows yesterday to eye 111.95 once more. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 71 OB zone & moving higher. H1 ATR 0.068, Daily ATR 0.606.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 11th October 2021.

    Market Update – October 11 – Yields, US Dollar, and Oil on bid.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    * The Treasury market and the Fed is closed today for Columbus Day, but Wall Street will trade.
    * USD (USDIndex hold 94.00), Bonds and Stocks under pressure as the job report kept the door open for the FOMC to potentially announce QE tapering this year, even though it looks unlikely given the weakening in US and global growth due to supply chain disruptions, as well as from the concomitant surge in prices.
    * Capitol Hill is likely to still be hotly debating fiscal policies, while more debt limit drama could be in the works for early December.
    * Oil prices continued to rise to the highest since 2014, as China’s coal futures jumped as flooding shuttered mines Currently $80.30. Gold back to $1750 area.
    * US Yields rising (10-year rising 3.5 bps to 1.616% and 2-year up 1.2 bps to 0.318%)
    * Equities are mixed. JPN225 +1.5% (supported by comments from Prime Minister Kishida, who said he isn’t considering changes to the capital gains tax at present), GER30 & UK100 +0.7%, USA500 -0.19% & USA100 -0.5%.
    * FX markets – USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1580 Cable spiked 1.3670, USDJPY higher again at 112.74 ( highest since December 2018)

    European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red, while European stock futures are narrowly mixed. Comments from BoE officials over the weekend backed market bets for an earlier than expected lift off on rates. UK inflation is rising sharply against the background of delivery problems and rising gas prices, which are impacting ever wider areas of the economy. The Eurozone is also struggling with similar problems, although they are much less severe than in the UK, where the fallout from Brexit seems to be adding to the difficult picture. Fueling demand with a very expansionary monetary policy clearly is not helping in this situation and it seems the BoE is gearing up to reduce stimulus earlier than previously anticipated.

    Today –ECB’s Lane & Elderson.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.88%) Rallied from open at 152.67 lows to eye 154.08. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 83 OB zone & started slowing down . H1 ATR 0.199, Daily ATR 1.312.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 12th October 2021.

    Market Update – October 12 – Risk off sentiment dominates!


    LONDON

    * Risk off sentiment dominated the Asian part of the session & European bourses are also set to open lower.
    * GER30 and UK100 futures currently down -0.6%. US futures are posting losses of -0.3 to -0.4% as markets fret about rising yields, the spike in oil prices and stagflation risks amid ongoing supply chain constraints that are increasingly keeping a lid on the manufacturing outlook
    * Equities down. JPN225 -0.9%, ASX corrected -0.3%.
    * Oil prices continued to rise to the highest since 2014 currently $81.06. UKOIL to $84.58 – adding to inflationary pressures in recovering economies.
    * Gold prices could reach $1,850 before retreating in 2022 – ANZ Research.
    * US Yields held above 0.6%, yields continued to rise in Australia and New Zealand, although China’s 10-year rate dropped back slightly.
    * News: South Korea’s central bank left its Base Rate unchanged, as expected, while in data Japan’s PPI rate jumped higher, and the UK’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5% in the 3 months to August.
    * FX markets – USD and GBP remain bid, Yen splits– Sterling is benefiting from rate hike speculation.
    * EURUSD, 1.1565, Cable stuck at 1.3600, USDJPY broken 113!

    European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 10 ticks, US futures are also slightly higher, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield is holding above the 1.6% mark. Central banks seem split on how to react and while the BoE is clearly laying the ground for an earlier than expected lift off on rates, ECB officials continue to do their best to keep rate hike speculation under control. The latter is keeping a lid on the EUR, while so far Sterling is benefiting from rate hike speculation, although that could change if the focus turns to growing supply chain and delivery disruptions and the impact of the spike in gas prices, which is also causing problems in areas such as food and drink production.

    Today – German ZEW Sentiment



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.14%) Retreating from 113.47 and currently back to 113 border. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram trending lower but well above 0, RSI 43 slowing down, all indicating a correction after OB condition. H1 ATR 0.123, Daily ATR 0.669.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 13th October 2021.

    Market Update – October 13 – All eyes on CPI.



    * Supply chain disruptions are increasingly hitting production targets and adding to stagflation concerns.
    * The bond market is overlooking Wednesday’s CPI data and the prospects for a hot report and the FOMC Minutes tonight.
    * Global Yields grab helped underpin the long end- reflected in the solid 10-year auction results, while the 3-year evinced weaker metrics. The 2-year is 3.2 bps higher at 0.350%, the cheapest since mid-March 2020.
    * Equities down. JPN225 dropped back -0.2%, the ASX declined -0.1%, although other markets looked somewhat better. Hong Kong remained closed due to weather warnings, but mainland China bourses outperformed amid strong export growth and stabilising sentiment on property developers. Japan’s machinery orders unexpectedly contracted and sentiment hit a 6-month low.
    * Oil steadied in the $79.00-$81.00 area.
    * FX markets – USD eased against majors, GBP strengthened
    * EURUSD is ranging 1.1522-1.1560, Cable rebounds to 1.3614, USDJPY 113.30-113.60.

    European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 6 ticks, but the 30-year has rallied while US futures are little changed. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are up 0.2% and down -0.1% respectively, with US futures also lower, after a cautious session across Asia overnight. China angst eased somewhat, but elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions and delivery problems are keeping stagflation fears alive.

    Today – US inflation data will be in focus today, as markets assess tapering risks. The EU calendar includes monthly GDP numbers and production data for the UK as well as final German inflation readings for September.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.43%) Rebounded from 1.8435 to 1.8557. Currently faster MAs started pulling back, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 43 and slowing down, all indicating a correction after rally. H1 ATR 0.00184, Daily ATR 0.01096.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by AllForexnews; 10-13-2021 at 04:37 PM.

  8. #1258
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    Date : 14th October 2021.

    Market Update – October 14.



    * Traders continue to mull recovery hopes and central bank policies, after the Fed minutes yesterday signaled tapering could start as early as November.

    * The market is starting to price in a Fed rate liftoff into September 2022 from December previously.
    * BoE officials no longer seem concerned that the spike in inflation will be temporary and markets are concerned that an early move would stifle a still fragile recovery, especially as Brexit Britain is facing severe delivery problems and shortages of staff in key areas that could have longer lasting economic consequences.
    * Yields: US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. A stellar, record-setting 30-year bond reopening evinced continued strong demand for yields.
    * China: Record high PPI number & a slight drop in headline CPI readings.
    * Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.4% gain. GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.4% and 0.5% respectively and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.5% rise in the USA100, which already outperformed yesterday.
    * Earnings season got off to a very strong start after a big beat by JPMorgan.
    * Oil lifted above $81.00.
    * FX markets – USD dropped, Yen corrected.
    * EURUSD is eyeing the 1.1400 mark, Cablerebounds to 1.3668, USDJPY 113.30–113.60.
    * TRYslumps over Central banks shuffle – USDTRY at 18. Erdogan dismissed three central bank monetary policy committee members and named replacements.

    European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -10 ticks and US futures are also lower, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. EGBs rallied yesterday, led by Gilts, although yields closed up from session lows yesterday, as the move was mainly fueled by stagflation concerns with money markets increasingly pricing in an early liftoff on rates, especially in the UK.

    Today – Today’s data calendar includes US PPI and US jobless claims.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.70%) Breached 79.45. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 73 and sloping up, all indicating further upwards move. H1 ATR 0.107, Daily ATR 0.748.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 15th October 2021.

    Market Update – October 15 – Stronger equities dampened the safe-havens!



    * Q3 earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, with big banks largely shooting the lights out on revenues and earnings.
    * Incoming data was constructive as well, with jobless claims coming in at pandemic lows, while the rate of PPI growth slowed. All 11 S&P sectors are higher.
    * Bulls are in control, both in the bond market and on Wall Street. – Overlooked the hawkish Fed implications from the record strength in PPI and the lowest claims readings since before the pandemic.
    * Yields declined and Treasuries are in the green on short covering and dip buying, recovering from the recent aggressive selloff. US Treasury yield has lifted 1.8 bp to 1.53%.
    * China: will loosen restrictions on home loans and boost lending & bank added enough medium term funds to keep liquidity in the system steady.
    * Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.6% gain and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.4% rise in the USA100.
    * Oil lifted above $81.99. – Prices quickly backed up after a larger than expected stock build in the US.
    * Improved market sentiment, which has lifted global stocks, commodity prices and bond yields, is also weighing on the safe-haven Dollar.
    * FX markets – USD dropped, Yen declined.
    * EURUSD retests 1.1600 mark, Cable at 1.3689, USDJPY touched 114.16.

    European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, US Treasury futures slightly in the red, as stock futures move higher in both Europe and North America after a good session for equities across Asia overnight. Market sentiment improved and GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while a 0.4% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures. EGB yields had dropped back markedly yesterday, but in the UK money markets are still bracing for an earlier than expected lift off on rates, which ironically is actually helping long rates to come down.

    Today – Today’s data calendar is unlikely to change the overall picture, with only eurozone trade data for August and some final HICP readings on the agenda.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Breached 80.55. Up for 7 days in a row. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI at 82 & Stochastic at 94 but both sloping down, all indicating further upwards move in the medium term but possible pullback in the short term. H1 ATR 0.123, Daily ATR 0.810.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #1260
    Senior Member
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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Date : 18th October 2021.

    Market Update – October 18 – China Slows – Risk-Off to start the week.



    * USD (USDIndex 94.10) holds at highs, Weak data from China (Q3 GDP 0.2% vs 0.5% & Ind. Production 3.1% vs 4.5%) Big misses, Risk-Off tone to start the week. Oil continues to move higher testing key technicals – Yields the driver (again) US 10yr at 1.6%. NZD moves higher – (CPI 2.2% vs. 1.4% & Services PMI’s 46.9 vs 35.6) Auckland lockdown extended.
    * PBOC breaks silence on Evergrande -“can contain contagion”: Risks are (1) other Real Estate Co’s & (2) Wider Economy.
    * US Yields (10yr closed 1.576%) now at 1.60% in Asian trades.
    * Equities moved strongly higher into close. USA500 +33.0 (+0.75%) at 4471 (Dow +1.0%) – Big movers AMZN & MasterCard +3.3%, TSLA +3.0% & BAC +2.8%, FB -1.15%, MRNA -2.31%. USA500.F dips to 4446. Asian equities lower on China news. VIX closed -2.56% at 17.00 (8 week low) – trades up at 17.35 now.
    * USOil back to test new 7-yr highs, trades at $82.75.
    * Gold slipped on higher yields down to $1763 now from Thursday’s test of $1800.
    * FX markets USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1573 Cable holds 1.3720 (Bailey ‘will have to act’ to curb inflation) & USDJPY higher again at 114.25.

    Week Ahead – Inflation and PMI data dominate the economic releases, Earnings highlights include: Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, (Squid Games to add $900m in Revenue?) Verizon, IBM, Intel, Tesla, (Musk joined 200+ VW exec’s over weekend) & AT&T.

    European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -53 ticks at 169.05, underperforming versus Treasury futures and pointing to another sharp rise in cash yields at the start of the session. Comments from BoE’s Bailey, will add to pressure in the European part of the session. UK money markets are increasingly pricing in a move from the BoE this year, which is leaving bond market traders worrying about stagflation risks. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.1%.

    Today – US Industrial Production, Fed’s Quarles, BoC’s Lane, & BOE’s Cunliffe.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCAD (+0.28%) Rallied from 1.2335 lows on Friday to test 1.2400 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 64.00 & moving higher, Stochs. 95 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.00826.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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