Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

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  1. #1241
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    Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
    Date : 21st September 2021.

    Market Update – September 21 – Evergrande worries weigh.



    Market News

    USD (USDIndex 93.17) holds gains but down from 20 day high at 93.43. CAD recovers after Trudeau gets minority majority and 3rd term.

    Yields collapsed yesterday (10yr down to 1.309% from 1.37% on Friday.)

    Equities tanked globally, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -75 (-1.7%) at 4357. USA500.F ticks higher 4375. Some recovery into close was evident & Tuesday calm is following Monday’s carnage. (Tech giants down around 3% – TSLA hardest hit -3.86%). DAX worst of majors -2.3%. Nikkei down 2%. China, Taiwan & S. Korea still closed. VIX spiked to 26.80, highest since May.

    USOil breached under $70.00 yesterday to $69.69, since recovering to $70.50.

    Gold tested down to $1742, recovered $1750, trades at $1763 now.

    Overnight – RBA minutes – nothing new – Delta variant has “delayed, but not derailed, the recovery”, the economy will “bounce back”, “conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024”. AUD back to 0.7275, AUDJPY up to 79.75 from test of 79.00 yesterday.

    European Open – December 10-yr Bund future unchanged on the day, US futures slightly lower. In Europe, Riksbank kicks off this week’s round of central bank meetings, which include Norges Bank, BoE & SNB on Thursday. There is also news from central banks in Japan, Brazil, Hungary, Indonesia, Norway, the Philippines, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan & Turkey this week.

    However, FOMC will take centre stage & while stock markets seem to be stabilising after yesterday’s rout, volatility is likely to remain high ahead of tomorrow’s announcement DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, while a 0.5% rise in the Dow Jones is leading a pick up in U.S. futures. In FX markets both EUR and pound gained ground as the dollar struggled with the strengthening of risk appetite. EURUSD is at 1.1735 and Cable at 1.3675. USDJPY dropped to 109.30 yesterday recovering to 109.56 now.

    Today – Riksbank rate decision, US housing starts & building permits, ECB’s de Guindos



    Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.85%) Trudeau result lifts CAD. From 87.00 on Friday to under 85.00 Monday and back to 86.00 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying. RSI 60 and rising. H1 ATR 0.170, Daily ATR 0.70.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #1242
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    Date : 22nd September 2021.

    Market Update – September 22 – No Turnaround Tuesday.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    Market News

    USD (USDIndex 93.25) holds gains, Evergrande will pay some local debt on Thursday, but major doubts remain. Strong Housing data helped USD. AUD recovers lifting NZD, JPY slips post BOJ. CAD holds gains. $3.5bln infra. bill goes to Senate, Biden doubles climate crisis investment.

    Yields moved two ticks higher (10yr closed at 1.32%) trade at 1.33% now.

    Equities remain weak, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -3 (-0.08%) at 4354. USA500.F flat at 4358. No Tuesday turnaround. ; Dow -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.22%. Nikkei & China down VIX cools to 23.42.


    USOil continues to recover broke $71.00 earlier – inventories to come later today.
    Gold also recovers to $1780 but remains shy of key resistance at $1788.

    Overnight – BOJ – no change – if anything a more Dovish outlook ” economy picking up as a trend, although it remained in a severe state due to the impact of the pandemic.” No sign of tapering any time soon. AUD back to 0.7250, AUDJPY up to 79.50. Evergrande will only pay local bond holders tomorrow but that was enough to ease concerns, at least for now. PBOC injected more funds into the local credit market. FT report there are enough empty apartments (new & unsold) in China to house 90 million people (30 million Chinese families) …-FT

    European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -22 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In FX markets both EUR & GBP corrected against USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1718 & Cable at 1.3647. USDJPY recovered to 109.56 from 109.10 pre-BOJ. Risks from China & realization global supply chains will take longer to recover from Covid disruptions (BBG report chip shortage getting worse, lead time now 21 weeks, Honda in Japan working at 40% of capacity for 2 mths) have seen investors scaling back tapering concerns & we expect Fed to stick with a cautious wait and see stance for now, which should help keep stock markets underpinned.

    Today – US Existing Home Sales, FOMC rate decision & Chair Powell press conference, more new supply from UK & Germany.



    Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.65%) The oscillations continue capped at 86.00 and back to 85.00 yesterday trades at 85.75 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying. RSI 61 and rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #1243
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    Date : 23rd September 2021.

    Market Update – September 23 – FOMC talk November Taper.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    Market News

    USD (USDIndex 93.52) rallies following FOMC – Taper possible from November, first rate rises now brought forward into 2022, Evergrande due to pay local bondholders today, shares rise in HK.

    Yields flattened as 5yr up 30 yr down – (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) trade at 1.329% now.

    Equities rallied over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). USA500 +41 (+0.95%) at 4395. USA500.F flat at 4396. Dow +1.00%, Nasdaq +1.02%.

    Nikkei (closed) & China higher. VIX tumbles to 21.62.

    USOil continues to recover broke $72.00 – inventories in line (-3.5m barrels). GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter.

    Gold dropped to $1760 but has recovered to $1764.

    Overnight – FED Highlights – We now have 9 forecasts of a 2022 rate hike instead of 7, with 9 instead of 11 now expecting no change. From the dots, it’s clear that the large majority of policymakers want to start raising rates in late-2022 & get back to near-normal by 2024. GDP, saw trimmings for the Fed’s 2021 central tendency to 5.8%-6.0% from 6.8%-7.3%, 2021 headline and core PCE chain price central tendency boosts to 4.0%-4.3% and 3.6%-3.8% respectively. 2021 jobless rate central tendency boosts to 4.6%-4.8%. POWELL – “substantial further progress” has been met for inflation, but there is more uncertainty surrounding the maximum employment goal. Powell noted a split among the FOMC whether employment has improved satisfactorily. He thinks it has “all but been met”. Tapering “could end around the middle of next year.”

    AUD PMI’s stronger than expected but remain very weak (Services only 44.9).

    European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 21 ticks, the 30-year future meanwhile has moved higher with Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.5% with risk appetite strengthen post-Fed and amid easing concern on Evergrande, at least for now. In FX markets both EUR and pound strengthened against a steady to lower dollar. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the local central bank announcements from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank today. EURUSD at 1.1715 & Cable at 1.3653. USDJPY recovered to 109.86.

    BoE Preview: Expected to keep policy settings on hold, but minutes will be watched carefully especially with 2 new MPC members – Catherine Mann (Centrist) & Huw Pill (Hawkish). The central bank already signaled a more hawkish outlook on rates at the previous meeting, which to a certain extent pre-empted the jump in inflation and tightness in labour markets that were the key message of last week’s economic reports. However, retail sales numbers were pretty dismal & consumers are facing higher taxes as well as a phased out wage support, with the phasing out of the furlough scheme a key factor for the BoE’s policy decision going forward. On top of this the country is facing an energy crisis that is having unexpected knock on effects also for the food sector. The central scenario at the moment is for the labour market to remain tight & wage growth strong, as companies are increasingly forced to up wage offers to attract staff. Against that background, the first rate hike could come in H1 2022, depending on virus developments & how the energy market gets through the winter.

    Today – SNB, Norges Bank (rate hike likley), BoE, CBRT & SARB rate decisions, Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB’s Elderson.



    Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.38%) 3 days in row! Breaks two day high t 86.00 and rallied to 86.32 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 72.96 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #1244
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    Date : 24th September 2021.

    Market Update – September 24 – Yields Leap higher.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    Market News

    USD (USDIndex 93.10) weakened to Wednesday lows (92.94) post BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, CBRT, weak PMI’s & Claims and Evergrande missing interest payment deadline – AND no comments from the company. US Federal budget – stand-off continues.

    Yields stormed higher overnight (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) jumped 10bps to 1.434% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020)

    Equities rallied again over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +53 (+1.21%) at 4448. USA500.F lower at 4433. Dow +1.48%. NIKE & Costco beat Earnings. Asian mixed – Nikkei +2%, China lower.
    VIX tumbles again to 20.50.

    USOil continues to recover breaches $73.00 – GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter.

    Gold dropped to $1737 (31 day low) has recovered to $1755 now.

    Overnight – NZD trade balance tanked, JPY CPI & Manu & Services PMI all missed, UK Consumer Confidence halved (-13 vs -7).

    European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -24 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures. Norway kicked off rate hikes in Europe, BoE is also inching towards reduced stimulus which together with Fed tapering hints this week seems to have triggered a market shift. Stocks weren’t too spooked by the yields rise, but uncertainty over Evergrande’s USD coupon payments and lingering concern that China’s property boom could implode and the growth engine running out of steam has seen equity markets turning more cautious once again. DAX future currently down -0.1%, FTSE 100 future little changed. FX markets flat – Sterling holds up, JPY weaker – EURUSD at 1.1732 & Cable at 1.3725 USDJPY recovered to 110.50.

    Today – German IFO, US New Home Sales, FedSpeak Williams, Mester, Clarida, Powell, George, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Tenreyro.



    Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.22%) 3 day rally from summer low at 149.40 continues after Hawkish BOE. spiked to 151.70 earlier. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 74.50 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #1245
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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Date : 27th September 2021.

    Market Update – September 27 – Yields, Evergrande & Oil.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    Market News

    USD (USDIndex 93.25) weakened on open but holds as reflation trade gains momentum. Scholz (current Fin. Min. & leader of the opposition SDP) likely to be next German Chancellor, (overall EUR positive). BOJ Mins “will not hesitate to add to easing policy”.

    Yields hold at recent highs (10yr closed 1.46% from 1.48% high) Now at 1.447% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020).

    Equities rallied but closed flat, Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +6.5 (+0.15%) at 4455 & over a key technical level. USA500.F higher at 4468. Asian equities higher, ASX leads at +0.6%. VIX closed below 20.00 Friday – trades at 19.32 now.

    USOil rally continues (October 2018 highs) +1.0% today & gapped at open, catalyst – Supply disruptions & inventory drawdowns – $74.88 – GS raised year end target to $87, higher, if there is a cold winter.
    Gold up from Friday lows, $1740 (touched $1760) to $1755 now.

    FX markets USD bid – CHF & JPY weaker – EURUSD – 1.1715, Cable 1.3660, USDJPY 110.70.
    Week Ahead – Month & Quarter end, US Senate vote on Infra & Fiscal budget, 2nd Evergrande interest payment ($49.5m), Japan to have new PM Wednesday. Dozens of Central bankers on podiums worldwide.

    European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 27 ticks, DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.6% & 0.7% respectively, suggesting Friday’s bout of risk aversion is abating, although China risk & surge in energy prices will remain in focus.

    In Europe investors will try to assess the impact of yesterday’s election in Germany, which signalled the end of the Merkel era & brought a shift in the balance of power, but no outright majority, which means the country is now facing a period of uncertainty while party leaders try to hammer out a coalition agreement. With the Left Party failing to clear the 5% hurdle though the threat of a participation of the party in government has been avoided, which may be enough to boost confidence today & EUR in the longer term.

    Today – US Durable Goods, ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, Fed’s Evans, Williams, Brainard, BoE’s Bailey, 2yr & 5yr US supply.



    Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF (+0.58%) 4-day rally from September low at 71.80 last Tuesday, next resistance 0.7350 & 0.7375. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, RSI 71.00 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.00095, Daily ATR 0.0064.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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