Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

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    Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
    Date : 12th April 2021.

    Quarterly Outlook: 2021 Q2.



    The start of the second quarter has been characterized by a cooling in demand for the USD caused by a rise in demand for US Treasuries as the yield also slips. The first quarter of 2021 saw a continued recovery in the US economy and improving data flow, the confirmation of President Biden’s $1.9tn fiscal stimulus bill and the proposed additional $2.25tn Infrastructure bill. The weaker Dollar narrative that greeted the new year did not materialize as the USD rallied throughout Q1 and time will tell if the current weakness at the beginning of Q2 will persist.

    CLICK HERE FOR THE .PDF VERSION OF THE QUARTERLY OUTLOOK

    The Quarterly Market Outlook offers an in-depth overview of the major events and expectations around the globe, recovery path, massive government stimulus programmes, and vaccine developments, and most importantly the shape of the economic recovery.

    The Quarterly Outlook is an essential reading for any trader or investor wishing to gain a thorough understanding of what is expected to take place in the market over the coming months.

    Click the button above for a FREE copy of our Quarterly Insights for 2021 Q2 and get an overview of some of the key events for the months ahead.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    HF Market Analysis Team

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 13th April 2021.

    Q1 Earnings Season – The Banks.



    This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest with many of the major US banks reporting. Q1 earnings are seen as key for setting the tone of company performances as the post-pandemic timeframe gains momentum as the vaccination rate continues to climb and states continue to open up. Overall the US equity markets closed at all-time highs again last week, with a strong close on Friday just shy of those inter-day highs. The USA500 closed at 4,123, the USA100 at 13,800 and the USA30 at 33,751.

    The Financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the $1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed $2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to benefit the banking sector in particular. So far 20 of the S&P 500 companies have reported and on average they have beat expectations by 11%, which is over 1.5 times above their average over the last 3 years. Overall expectations for the S&P 500 is for Q1 Earnings to grow by a very significant 25%, which would be the best performing quarter since President Trump’s tax cut inspired Q1 2018. Additionally, what is more encouraging is that estimates have been rising as the Earnings Season arrives; normally they start to decline as the data starts to emerge. Back in late February/early March consensus was for 22% Q1 growth. This enthusiasm is tempered by the high valuations the S&P500 is running currently; forward earnings are currently projected at 22.3 times whereas in a normal economic cycle the historical average is 15 times earnings, hence the scepticsim over further growth from here. However, overall 2021 earnings growth remains very robust and is penciled in at 26.5% versus a -12.6% decline for 2020. Another key drag on future growth in 2021 is President Biden’s proposed increase in Corporation Tax to 28% from 21%; estimates suggest that this could reduce earnings by 7.4% for 2021.



    Earnings season kicks off significantly tomorrow, (April 14) with big banks leading the charge. Reports are due from JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and First Republic Bank. Later in the week there will be data from Bank of America, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial.


    Whatever the outcome, much is anticipated from the numbers and tomorrow (April 14) JP Morgan are first up at 12:00 GMT with expectations of an Earnings per share (EPS) of $3.10 and revenues increasing 5% to $30.10 billion, this is followed by Goldman Sachs at 12:25 GMT with consensus numbers of an EPS at $9.79 and revenues also up to $11.71 billion and also before the bell tomorrow is Wells Fargo at 13:05 GMT with an expected EPS of $0.69 on revenues of $17.41 billion. Last time JPM and Goldman Sachs both beat on both revenue and EPS numbers significantly whilst Wells Fargo missed, disappointing the markets. All three key banks remain technically Bullish trading north of their respective 20-day moving averages. On Monday (April 12) JPM closed at $153.07, a few dollars shy of the March 18 high at $157.18, Goldman Sachs closed down 2% at $324, some $23 below the March 18 high, whilst Wells Fargo closed at $39.98 off 1.93% for the day and $0.89 below the close on March 18.



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 14th April 2021.

    Market Update – World stocks hit record high.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    Market News Today – Treasuries erased early gains, but bond markets across Asia remained supported, after investors shrugged off the hotter than expected US inflation number yesterday and focused on the successful 30-year bond auction. Global stock markets rose to a record high on Wednesday as bond yields eased after data showed US inflation was not rising wildly as the economy reopens.

    As Reuters reported, Johnson & Johnson’s shares slid 1.34% after US federal health agencies recommended pausing the rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine for at least a few days, after six women developed rare blood clots. Setbacks to vaccination rollouts have raised concerns about the global economic recovery.

    New Zealand’s RBNZ left policy settings unchanged and confirmed its commitment to an expansionary policy, which helped to underpin the rise in Australia and New Zealand bonds. A sharp sell off in one of China’s largest bad-debt managers attracted attention and rekindled concerns over credit markets. Bloomberg also reported that Tencent Holdings Ltd is holding off marketing a planned dollar bond deal.

    Central banks remain focused on providing stimulus and the hotter than expected US inflation number hasn’t re-booted reflation trades so far, as negative vaccine headlines added to the already concerning outlook for EU supply.

    In FX markets, the USD was steady to lower after yesterday’s decline in Treasury yields and USDJPY fell back to 108.96. AUD and NZD gained. Both EUR and GBP lifted against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD currently at 1.1964 and Cable at 1.3777. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $60.73 per barrel. Bitcoin hit a record above $64,500, extending its 2021 rally as Coinbase shares are due to list in the United States. Gold held up well against the USD.

    Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the overall outlook, but include Eurozone production data for February and inflation numbers out of Sweden. Comments from ECB’s Guindos will also be in focus. US calendar has March trade prices but earnings to headline with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS.N among the companies reporting.



    Biggest (FX) Mover – (NZDUSD @ 07:30 GMT +0.61%) The NZDUSD spiked higher on the largely USD weakness and after the RBNZ statement. The asset broke its 1-week resistance and turned above R2 and the round 0.7100 level. Currently fast MAs and MACD lines are aligned higher but RSI and Stochastics have started turning lower, suggesting a potential pullback. ATR (H1) at 0.00119 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00566.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 15th April 2021.

    Q1 Earnings Season – BAC and Citigroup.



    This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with many of the major US banks reporting and expected to massively beat consensus, something that could please the bulls. But will this be the case? And if yes, then what? As Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan stated, Q1 is the peak in terms of earnings growth; even though the absolute level of growth will still be very healthy, deceleration is a powerful force in the market.

    Nevertheless, investors seem to be waiting for new catalysts before pushing valuations out much further and the earnings season provides a major focus against the background of conflicting virus and vaccine headlines.

    Hence the earnings slate remains busy for the remainder of the week, and will include reports from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Pepsico, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, PPG, Delta Airlines, J.B. Hunt, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Kansas City Southern, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial.

    Hence the focus today turns to Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. and their first Quarter earnings release for 2021.

    The Bank of America (#BankofAmerica OR BOA) consensus recommendation is “Buy”, even though revenues are expected to miss as earnings are likely to exceed according to the majority of the consensus recommendations from the Eikon Reuters terminal. According to Zacks Investment Research, the report for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2021 is expected to experience a near quarter rally of its Earnings Per Share (EPS) compared to last year, at $0.65 from $0.40. Reuters Eikon predicts similar EPS, while the company’s revenue is seen depreciating slightly from a year ago to $22.03 billion (Eikon) with a mean change at 3.63%.



    The BOA has surpassed earnings forecasts in the last two quarters, driven by a positive decline in provisions of credit losses on a sequential basis, while its revenues have suffered due to weakness in core banking, which it is strongly dependent on. As Forbes stated, the company witnessed an 11% y-o-y drop in net interest income, which contributes around 50% of the total revenues. Despite the fact that the financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the $1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed $2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to continue benefitting the banking sector, the net interest drop led to a drop in the full year 2020 BOA revenues, despite a 20% jump in the Global Markets segment driven by higher sales & trading and investment banking revenues.

    In regards to Citigroup now, things are slightly different as the bank’s pandemic reserves are worth almost 10% of the bank’s market capitalisation. However as more and more Americans are vaccinated and the government releases more stimulus, the more the pressure from the banks’ credit models will be for the banks to release some of the cash. This means Citgroup will face less pressure than other big banks. On top of the above, Citigroup is in general in a better setup as higher trading activity in the securities market and a jump in underwriting deal volumes boosted trading and investment banking revenues for all the main banks and Citigroup was no different. Further, with the stimulus and possible vaccination development (so far 119 million people have received the Covid-19 vaccine in the US), provisions are expected to see a further decrease in Q1 2021, boosting its profitability.

    Hence Citigroup is expected to report adjusted earnings of $2.60, in comparison with the $1.06 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $18.82 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, nearly 9% lower than Q1 2020.



    From a technical perspective, whatever the outcomes are, much is anticipated from the numbers of Bank of America and Citigroup, both banks are expected to outperform the consensus estimates for earnings, while revenues are likely to fall short of expectations. Both banks remain technically Bullish, trading north of their respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. Today #Citigroup is at $72.90, below its 2021 highs at $76.13 but still in 3-year high territory. #BankofAmerica is at $39.86, just a breath below all record highs with next Resistance areas at the Fibonacci extensions, at the $42 and $45.30 levels.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 16th April 2021.

    Market Update – Pricing in a solid global recovery again.



    Treasuries posted strong and very surprising gains, overlooking robust data and a solid rally on Wall Street. It was something of a buy-the-fact trade as hefty data was the well advertised risk (Retail sales surged 9.8% in March and climbed 8.4% excluding autos & Initial Jobless Claims tumbled -193k to 576k). The 10-year yield dropped 10 bps to 1.530%, the lowest in a month. The break of key technical levels added to the bid, with some haven demand too amid virus and vaccine worries, along with some geopolitical risks.

    The USA500 and the USA30 reached record highs thanks to strong data that supported the recovery narrative, along with hefty earnings, and the drop in yields. The USA100 outperformed with a better than 1% jump and is back over 14,000 for the first time since mid-February. As Refinitiv reported, USA100 traders were all bulled up buying the tech breakout yesterday after the USA100 rallied 10%. BUT we should keep an eye on technicals as RSI has reached overbought levels. Elsewhere, Asia markets were largely steady after China reported a sharp acceleration in first quarter growth, though the reading slightly undershot expectations while retail sales bounced strongly last month. For Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

    In FX markets, EURUSD is little changed at 1.1968, while GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3761. USDJPY is little changed at 108.79. AUD and NZD fell slightly below yesterday’s peak. USOIL extended gains to 63.84. Gold held steady near a more than one-month high on Friday, en route to its second straight weekly gain, boosted by a drop in US Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar.

    Today – Today’s data calendar focuses on final Eurozone inflation readings for March and February trade data also for the Eurozone. US Building permits, housing starts and Michigan Index are also on tap.



    Biggest (FX) Mover – (EURGBP @ 07:30 GMT -0.43%) The asset rallied to 0.8710 retesting the 7-week highs for a 3rd time. Intraday the fast MAs aligned higher, RSI is at 66, while MACD is positive but signal line holds at neutral. ATR (H1) at 0.00061 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00488.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 19th April 2021.

    Market Update – April 19 – Equities at highs, BTC hit from weekend hiatus.



    Market News Today – US Equities at new closing highs on Friday, (4 consecutive weeks for USA500), USD remains weak with 10-yr yield now well under 1.60% at 1.56%. Asian markets higher and European FUTS up too. JPY seeing some buying in Asia – EUR weaker. BTC weekend collapse (65k – 51K) reason? – US regulators preparing move on money launderers? Power cut in China’s crypto mining hub Xinjiang? (Trades down 14% at 57k now). AUD-NZD air corridor open, European Football in revolt, Biden to reduce Corp. tax demands to 25%?, $5.4tn global savings stockpile – FT

    Week Ahead – ECB, BOC, & PBOC rate decisions, more CPI data, PMIs, and more key Q1 Earnings reports. – including Netflix, AT&T, Johnson & Johnson, Intel and American Express.

    The Dollar has remained soft in concert with heavy US Treasury yields. Ranges have been narrow, though the USDIndex still edged out a one-month low at 91.05, extending the decline from the five-month high that was seen in late March at 93.44. The 10-year Treasury note yield has at the same time settled on a 1.560% handle, just a couple of basis points above last week’s five-week lows. The benchmark yield remains down by nearly 20 bp from the 14-month highs that were seen in late March. Amid the dollar softening theme, which lifted EURUSD beyond 1.2000 to seven-week highs at 1.2036, there , was a side theme of moderate yen outperformance, which aided USDJPY to a seven-week low at the key 108.00, while EURJPY and AUDJPY printed respective 11- and five-day lows.

    Asia stock markets have remained underpinned, though the MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained off recent highs. S&P 500 E-mini futures was showing a 0.3% decline in early London trading, correcting after the cash version of the index closed on Wall Street at a record peak on Friday in what was its sixth consecutive weekly gain. Incoming corporate earnings will remain a focus, especially those of cyclical businesses.

    European stock markets are mostly higher, although the DAX is slightly lower and overall moves have been muted as investors look to the earnings season and this week’s central bank meetings for fresh catalysts.

    The global Covid vaccine supply capacity continues to ramp higher, and continental Europe seems to be past the point of peak pessimism, with infection rates steadying and the vaccine rollout set to accelerate in the weeks and months ahead. The sharp spike in Covid cases in India and, increasingly, Pakistan, are cause for worry, however, as it’s been driven by variant B.1.617, which has two ‘escape mutations’ that make it able to dodge antibodies. This variant has been detected in 77 cases in the UK.

    Today – Highlights include ECB asset purchases and earnings from IBM, Coca-Cola and United Airlines.



    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) BTCUSD (-14.00%) Gapped on open – see news item above. Technically stalled at S3 56,150 from a close on Friday at PP 61,850. MAs remain aligned lower although 5 EMA now above 9 EMA, RSI OS (29 and rising), MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and under 0 line from Friday morning. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 970.00, Daily ATR 2860.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 20th April 2021.

    Market Update – April 20 – Weaker USD & JPY Today.



    Market News Today – US Equities slip (TSLA, Nvidia and Peloton) all hit by news (-0.5%) as Yields & USD move from lows. EUR, GBP & AUD bid, JPY pressured. Asian markets at 6-week high on weak USD, Nikkei down, German PPI and UK jobs data both beat expectations. Xi cautioned against “meddling in others internal affairs”, Kuroda no change to ETF purchases and cautions on recovery.

    The Dollar has diverged from US yields, with the greenback, as measured by the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex, extending yesterday’s steep decline in posting a fresh seven-week low at 90.82. The index is now down by a cumulative 2.8% from the five-month highs that were seen in late March. Today’s decline marks a break from the recent correlative pattern, being concomitant with rising longer-dated Treasury yields. The 10-year note yield is up 2.2 bp on the day, at 1.627%, as of the early London morning, which is the loftiest level since last Thursday, while marking an 8 bp rebound from the recent low. The 10-year yield remains some 17 bp down on the high seen in late March, and clearly the currency market is anticipating limited risk for a return to a sustained yield ascent, similar to what we saw during the first three months of the year.



    Instead, markets are running with a similar dollar-bearish sentiment that was prevailing over the final quarter of last year, with the greenback weakening amid a backdrop of buoyant global equity and commodity markets, with optimism running high for global economies to rise strongly from pandemic hardships on the back of vaccinated-assisted reopening of societies, along with massive stimulus policies and an expected unleashing of consumer ‘lockdown savings’ in major economies, all alongside a benign outlook on inflation, particularly in the US where the fiscal stimulus is the largest, both by contemporary global standards and by post-second world war standards. We suspect this won’t last, and markets will return to pricing in contingency risk that the Fed may be forced to tighten much sooner than the 2024 start point for tightening that has been signalled by the central bank.

    Today – Highlights include still to come on a quiet day CB’s de Cos, & Earnings from Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Phillip Morris, P&G & Lockheed Martin.



    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.84%) Rallied on open from PP & 200MA at 83.90 to beyond R3 at 84.60. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI OB at 77 but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and over 0 line from earlier. Stochs OB zone and rising. H1 ATR 0.1260, Daily ATR 0.6050.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 21st April 2021.

    Market Update – April 21 – USD gets safe haven bid reprieve.



    Market News Today – US Equities moved down again (-0.68%) (Netflix subscribers fell – shares down 11% after close) USD move off 7-week lows (USDIndex at 91.20) & JPY gain safe haven bid as commodity currencies trade mixed. EUR holds 1.2030 & GBP at 1.4000. 10-yr Yields down at 1.56% mid-march lows. Asian markets down 2.0% and European FUTS off after DAX -1.55% & FTSE -2% yesterday. USOil holds at $62.00, Gold up to $1784 and the VIX up 15% to a 21.55 high. Virus rebounding in Asia (Tokyo & Osaka in lockdowns, India record daily cases 200k+ per day as cases double every 13 days) and LATAM (Brazil, Peru, Argentina & Uruguay lead infection spikes). ESL collapses after the 6 English cubs withdraw. Overnight data – AUD Retail sales beat significantly, NZD CPI was a tick better & UK CPI a tick worse. Xi to attend Biden climate summit for first meeting and Powell is planning to “limit inflation overshooting too far”.

    European Open – Bunds slightly higher in opening trade, and the 10-year rate has dropped back -0.2 bp to -0.265%. Peripherals are outperforming for now, which is encouraging, but if risk appetite continues to wane, that will also rely on ongoing ECB support. Treasuries have held yesterday’s gains overnight and are still at 1.56%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, while US futures are paring some of their earlier losses, which suggests somewhat improved sentiment. Data releases at the start of the session included UK inflation numbers, which showed the headline CPI rate rising to 0.7% y/y in March, up from 0.4% y/y in the previous month, but actually slightly lower than feared. Core lifted to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% y/y with base effects playing a role. PPI data meanwhile showed sharply higher input as well as output costs, with the former reaching 5.9% y/y, the latter 1.9% y/y.

    Today – Highlights include Canadian inflation, BoC rate decision, BoE’s Ramsden, Bailey, Earnings from Verizon, ASML (already out – a big beat) Ericsson, Baker Hughes, Halliburton and NextEra.



    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+15.00%) Gapped on open after strong day yesterday following stock market weakness and lows of 16.82 on Friday. Rallied to 21.55 highs. Faster MAs remain aligned higher from yesterday, RSI OB at 73 and cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and over 0 line from Friday. Stochs OB zone and cooling. H1 ATR 0.47, Daily ATR 0.98.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #1149
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    Date : 22nd April 2021.

    USOil – Increase in stockpiles and infections lowers oil prices.



    USOil, H1 – US crude oil prices fell for a second consecutive day to below 61.00, as the USDIndex posted a two-day low at 91.00, extending the decline from yesterday’s high at 91.43 and returning focus to Tuesday’s seven-week low at 90.86. Weekly US Stockpiles came out much higher than expected and was the first increase in as many weeks at 600,000 barrels. In addition, the number of people infected with COVID-19 is skyrocketing globally, raising concerns that lockdown measures may be reintroduced. In Asia, Japan is preparing to announce lockdowns in Tokyo and Osaka, while India is now recording near 300,000 daily infections as the number of people infected every 13 days in Latin America also increases.

    In technical view, Daily timeframe, the price has made a new high lower and begins to see a downward Channel that has the potential to become a Bullish Flag in the future. While prices can now break below the 50-DMA line, MACD is lower, and RSI is mid-range, so it’s possible that the prices will remain unchanged.



    As for today’s oil price outlook, H1 sees a Falling Wedge pattern where prices move in a narrower and lower frame, indicating the possibility that prices may lift again. This time, however, the 50-period MA is moving closer to the 200-period SMA, where, if it crosses, it could confirm a short-term downward trend in oil prices. Today’s support is at the psychological level of 60.00 and resistance is at the MA line at the 61.80 zone.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Chayut Vachirathanakit
    Market Analysts – HF Educational office – Thailand

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #1150
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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Date : 23rd April 2021.

    Market Update – April 23 – Equities and Bitcoin Lower; USD Flat.



    Market News Today – US Equities down again (-0.92%), USD (91.20) & Yields (1.55%) flat, BTC tanks under $50k on Biden proposal to raise capital gains tax to 40%. ECB nothing new, Largarde talked up strong 2H recovery, June meeting likely to see some changes. Claims at 13-month low. Overnight AUD up on good PMIs, JPY CPI lower PMIs ease higher too, Big jump for credit card spending in NZ and UK Retail Sales much better 5.4% vs 1.5%. AT&T & Intel beat expectations. Earth Summit – Biden cuts US emissions target by 50% for 2030, Japan, Canada and UK also cut targets.

    European Open – Asian stock markets traded mixed, after Wall Street was hit by proposals for a higher capital gains tax for the wealthy in the U.S. as a way to pay for the government’s social plan. U.S. futures are already moving higher again, but Asian markets struggled after the weaker close in the U.S.. Topix and Nikkei lost -0.6% and -0.8%, as inflation came in a tad higher than anticipated, although at -0.1% y/y the headline rate remains stuck in negative territory. The ASX lost -0.1%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The U.S. 10-year rate has lifted 2.0 bpo to 1.56% and bonds were also under pressure across Asia. In FX markets the dollar struggled, while CAD and AUD were supported. EUR-JPY dropped back to 107.89. Oil prices meanwhile pared a weekly loss, as the focus shifts back to recovering demand at the end of a week that was dominated by concerns over the resurgence of virus cases and rising stockpiles.

    Today – Highlights include Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, ECB’s Lagarde. Earnings from Daimler, Honeywell and American Express



    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.34%) rallied from 0.7060 low yesterday and open today. Moved over 20- and 50-hour MAs, next resistance 200-hour at 0.7096. Faster MAs remain aligned higher from open, RSI 53 cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remain under 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0058.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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