Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

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  1. #1041
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    Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
    Date : 13th October 2020.

    Equity markets rally loses some momentum in EU session.



    Risk aversion picked up again, underpinned by negative vaccine news amid reports that Johnson & Johnson halted its Covid-19 trial due to “unexplained illness”.

    The December 10-year Bund future is up 1 tick, while in cash markets Treasury yields have dropped back -1.2 bp to 0.76% after yesterday’s holiday. In FX markets EUR and GBP both declined against a largely stronger US Dollar. Negative vaccine headlines weighed on sentiment overnight, but tech stocks remained supported and the prospect of additional monetary and fiscal stimulus should help to underpin sentiment.

    European stock markets are narrowly mixed in opening trade, with the UK100 up 0.04%, GER30 down -0.14% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.03%, while US futures are narrowly mixed, with only the USA100 future managing fractional gains.

    The ECB is clearly readying a strengthening of the PEPP program, the BoE is stepping up the preparations for a move towards negative rates and ECB President Lagarde also stressed again the need for fiscal stimulus to support the wave of monetary stimulus as the renewed surge in virus cases is threatening the still fragile recovery. An ongoing salvo of dovish signalling from ECB policymakers has resulted in outright Euro and GER30 declines, though has likely been contributory in offsetting dollar weakness recently. Aside from the Fed itself, and partly in response to, many other central banks have been conducting similar messaging campaigns.



    Further pressure has been added to both EUR and GER30 despite after the release of German HICP inflation earlier. German HICP inflation confirmed at -0.4% y/y in the final reading for September. The national CPI rate was confirmed at -0.2% y/y, with the temporary cut to the VAT rate as well as the decline in energy prices the main reasons for the negative headline rate. Excluding household energy and petrol, CPI would have been 0.6% y/y. Still, while is not real deflation, the officials are clearly concerned that a prolonged period of negative headline rates against the background of new virus restrictions and rising unemployment will lead to a more permanent shift in inflation expectations that could lead to a deflationary spiral down the line. For the dovish camp at the ECB, the numbers will provide further ammunition in the push for additional stimulus measures and a further extension and strengthening of the PEPP program.



    GER30, despite a decline on opening, retains the support at the 50-period SMA in the 1-hour chart. Although the asset has reversed nearly all the year’s losses and is trading clear above 12,500, the outlook is still not decisively positive, but neutral. It has been in a new uptrend since the beginning of October but momentum looks neutral with bulls struggling for a second day to move above 13,200 (76.4% FIb level) after a weak close yesterday. The improvement in momentum indicators will clear the strength level of the trend, as MACD is being tested around neutral as RSI slips lower towards 50. Immediate Resistance is in place at yesterday’s high, and the 13,200 at 76.4% Fib. The bulls need to show a breakout of this area. A pullback below 61.8% Fib. level at 13,027 but more precisely below the round 13,000 would seriously challenge whether bears are slowly taking the control again.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #1042
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    Date : 14th October 2020.

    Big Bank Earnings & PPI lift sentiment.



    USA500, Daily

    Bank of America (BoA) and Goldman Sachs (GS) both reported third-quarter earnings earlier that beat estimates.



    BoA reported net income of $4.9bn, or 0.51 cents per share (EPS) compared to the consensus estimate of 0.49 cents EPS. Revenue in the same quarter last year was $5.8bn and only $3.5bn for the second quarter of 2020. Like JPMorgan and Citibank yesterday, the recovery in Q3 was the reduction in provisions for bad loans down to “only” $1.4 bn from the colossal $5.1bn in Q2. Total revenues were lower at $20.3bn. Shares closed down 2.84% yesterday at 24.95 and are down a further 2.9% in out-of-hours trading today at 24.21.



    Goldman Sachs (GS) figures were significantly better than consensus, with EPS at an impressive $9.68 versus expectations of just $5.57 – a beat in excess of 73% and a record for a quarter. Net revenues for the quarter were $10.78 bn versus $9.45 bn, a beat of some 14% and 30% better than the same quarter in 2019. Shares closed down 1.55% yesterday at 210.81 and are up 2.0% in out-of-hours trading today at 215.10.

    US headline PPI rose 0.4% in September, with the core rate up 0.4% as well, both hotter than forecast, following respective August gains of 0.3% and 0.4%. The core price ties with August for the firmest since April 2019. Prices have recovered from big and record drops in April of -1.3% for the headline and -0.4% on the core. The 12-month pace climbed to a 0.4% y/y rate from -0.2% y/y previously, and the core rate surged to a 1.2% y/y clip versus 0.6% y/y. Goods prices increased 0.4% on the month from August’s 0.1% gain, with food prices jumping 1.2% from the prior -0.4% decline, while energy prices fell -0.3% after slipping -0.1% previously. Services prices were up 0.4% from 0.5% in August.



    The Dollar edged lower following the September PPI print. USDJPY hit near two-week lows of 105.21, down from near 105.30, as EURUSD headed to intraday highs of 1.1764 from near 1.1755. The Dollar has been on the decline generally since before the open. Equity futures remains mixed with USA500 trading at 3519, up from earlier lows at 3502 but down from European session highs at 3532.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #1043
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    Date : 15th October 2020.

    European Equities Heavy on Covid-19 Resurgence.


    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    GER30, UK100, H1

    European stock markets are selling off, with the GER30 now down 3%, the UK100 2.3%, as investors price out stimulus hopes in the US and prepare for fresh economic setbacks as the second round of Covid-19 hit Europe and leads to increasingly strict restrictions. France has announced a curfew for Paris, that confines citizens to their homes between 9 pm and 6 am for four weeks, in the U.K. regional lockdowns are widened with London moving to tier 2 (No household mixing indoors anywhere from midnight on Friday. People are discouraged from using public transport. Schools, universities and places of worship remain open. All businesses and venues can continue to operate) and in Germany Chancellor Merkel has urged citizens to stick to the rules while signalling that official measures will be tightened if cases continue to rise at the current rate. Officials are eager to avoid full lockdowns, but despite the respite over the summer, they failed to prepare appropriate alternative measures to deal with the spike in cases that is now starting to show up in hospital admissions. Central bank officials continue to signal the willingness to do more if needed, but that hasn’t prevented Eurozone spreads from widening this morning, as peripheral bond markets feel the pressure from the pick-up in risk aversion. The Italian 10-year yield is up 3.4 bp, although still below the 0.7% mark, while German 10-year yields have dropped back -3.8 bp and -3.2 bp so far today.
    The GER30 spiked below 12,600 from a close yesterday at 12,970, the UK100 pushed below 5,800 from highs yesterday over 6,000.



    The GER30 spiked below 12,600 from a close yesterday at 12,970, the UK100 pushed below 5,800 from highs yesterday over 6,000.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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    Date : 16th October 2020.

    Election2020 – Only Three Weekends Remain.



    A little over 2 weeks – 12 trading days – until the US Election, and the Town Hall meetings co-hosted on the two main US national TV networks provided nothing really new with regards to policy or outlook. However, it did provide the opportunity to have both meetings running consecutively side-by-side. President Trump was in Miami, in the must-win state of Florida (29 Electoral College votes) with NBC, while former Vice President Biden was in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, another key swing state with 20 Electoral college votes available to the victor, with ABC.

    President Trump said “I know nothing about QAnon”, that he WILL accept a peaceful transfer of power, ”Yes, I will. But I want it to be an honest election, and so does everybody else.” and commented on whether he took a coronavirus test on the day of his last debate with Mr Biden, saying: “Possibly I did, possibly I didn’t.”

    Candidate Biden continued to avoid answering if he would move to increase the size of the supreme court (the third arm of US government) with judges if, as seems likely, the Senate confirm judge Amy Coney Barrett to the court before election day. “I have not been a fan of court packing. I’m not a fan.” He admitted that the 1994 crime bill, which he helped draft, which the Black Lives Matter Movement has claimed is one of the reasons for mass jailings of African Americans, was a “mistake” but continued to defend his record “It [the bill] had a lot of other things in it that turned out to be both bad and good.”

    So attention is turned to a weekend of high intensity campaigning, the final two-week onslaught of media messages and no-holds-barred advertising. The pair are still expected to meet face to face for the final time before polling day on Thursday in Belmont University, Nashville, Tennessee (a strongly Republican state with 11 electoral college votes, almost guaranteed for the President).

    The Pandemic, Economics, Foreign Policy, and even the environment are likely to be key topics in what is expected to be a much less raucous and chaotic affair than their first encounter. The most powerful job in the world is up for grabs, and it impacts us all, regardless of where we live.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #1045
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    Date : 21st October 2020.

    USD Down, GBP & Crypto’s Higher, CAD data.



    Sterling has rallied quite strongly, showing a 1.0%+ gain on the Dollar at prevailing levels, as it rallied to test 1.3100. EURGBP is back under 0.9100 and down over 0.5% and testing 0.9050. The market reacted to remarks from EU trade negotiator, Barnier, that talks with the UK could continue “day and night.” There was also news that US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said that a trade agreement with the UK would come “reasonably soon.” The currency market evidently remains bullish on the EU and UK reaching an agreement, although the game of chicken between the two sides is continuing. Boris Johnson’s position is that the EU must fundamentally change its stance, while France’s European affairs minister Clément Beaune asserted yesterday that there would be “no new approach.” USDJPY tumbled under 105.00 en-route to printing a one-month low at 104.55. EURUSD lifted to a one-month high at 1.1868.



    USDCAD posted a new low for a fourth consecutive day in pegging a six-week low at 1.3080 before recouping back above 1.3100 amid a near 2% drop in oil prices. USOil fell from the $41.88 highs seen on Tuesday to a low of $40.86 in London morning trade. The API reported a 600k bbl weekly inventory build after the close yesterday, versus expectations for a 2.0 mln bbl draw, which weighed on prices some. Inventories at the Cushing, OK storage hub were up by 1.2 mln bbls. Concerns over Covid related demand destruction, along with increased crude production from Libya, should keep a cap on prices for now. The EIA weekly inventory report is due at 14:30 GMT.



    Canada’s CPI accelerated and retail sales grew, but both measures were on the tame side. CPI rose 0.5% y/y in September after the 0.1% gain in August. But CPI dipped -0.1% on an m/m basis (nsa) after the -0.1% slip in August and flat (0.0%) reading in July. CPI last rose on an m/m basis in June, rising 0.8%. The average of the three core CPI measures was 1.7% y/y, matching the 1.7% average seen in August. The CPI report remains consistent with ample slack in the economy, with a long way to go before activity returns to pre-pandemic levels across all industries. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 0.4% in August (m/m, sa) after a 1.0% gain in July (revised from 0.6%). Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate is for little change in September retail sales. Sales have returned to more typical growth rates following the initial pop that followed the reopening of the economy — sales surged 21.2% in May after plunging -24.8% in April and falling -10.0% in March. Retail sales jumped 22.5% in June, an all time high growth rate. The ex-autos sales aggregate gained 0.5% in August. Both measures undershot expectations for stronger gains. Tame annual CPI growth along with the deceleration in retail sales is consistent with steady, accommodative policy from the BoC for an extended period.



    Elsewhere, BTCUSD moved to 2020 highs after Paypal confirmed it will allow cryptocurrency buying, selling and shopping on its network.¹ The press release stated it “signaled its plans to significantly increase cryptocurrency’s utility by making it available as a funding source for purchases at its 26 million merchants worldwide. The company is introducing the ability to buy, hold and sell select cryptocurrencies, initially featuring Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin, directly within the PayPal digital wallet. The service will be available to PayPal account holders in the U.S. in the coming weeks.”

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #1046
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    in ro ham eslah kon:
    Date : 22nd October 2020.

    Volatility and US elections.



    US Elections had been and always expected to be an event historically extremely volatile globally. Elections similar to other political or banking sector events are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation. As discussed in our HF Markets Q4 Outlook, markets look to have already pricing in the possibility of Biden’s victory even though they overall maintain an increasing cautious optimism, holding US Dollar basket to 2018 low territory.

    Historically, it has been noticed that during election years, market participants due to the heightened uncertainty, shift their investments into Money market funds instead from the safety of stock and bond funds, AS THEY waiting out. The 2020 is not any different but it’s been a unique one as we have seen an extreme money flow into currency assets in comparison with past election years, due the sluggish US and worldwide economic activity as the Covid-19 crisis resumes, the truce with China again which is under scrutiny, the lockdowns in several areas, the lack of additional fiscal stimulus from central bankers, Brexit frictions and the fear of double dip recession in Europe.

    That said, cash balance into money funds spike to $980 in 2020 as of June 30, given the large risk premia. However as soon as uncertainty recedes we might see equity market’s volatility and volume to spike again since they consider to be attractive and more stable assets in period which there are historically low interest rates. If we emphasize on the medium term thought it is expected that if current conditions sustained, market volatility will extend beyond Election days with any potential outcome, i.e. a Biden win and Democrat majority in Congress, a Biden win but split Congress, or a Trump victory with split Congress.

    Meanwhile, a very chart from Wells Fargo Investment Institute, shows the USA500 implied Volatility index along with USA500 index performance prior and post the Election Day based on the election since 1988 with 2008 recession year excluded. This chart interestingly suggest that typically the USA500 tends to eased/consolidate a bit a month prior elections despite a extremely high volatility, while USA500 price continue their upwards move after the election day even though volatility declines significantly.


    WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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