Instaforex Analysis

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  1. #381
    Senior Member IFX Yvonne's Avatar
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    Instaforex Analysis
    Forecast for EUR/USD on November 15, 2019


    On Thursday, due to new difficulties in relations between the United States and China (China is resisting the signing of a clearly unprofitable trade agreement for it), investors chose to close their positions due to the uncertain economic data for Europe and the US that are coming out today, right before strong technical support (1.0985). The price exceeded the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator showed a reversal, but these are not yet sufficient conditions for significant growth, the situation is typical for correction. With the return of the price under the MACD line, the next wave of activity in euro sales is likely. We do not expect a correction above the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1073).



    On the four-hour chart, the Marlin signal line entered the growth zone, while the price remains below the MACD line. The exit of the price above the line (1.1035) will allow the euro to develop a correction. This can be prevented by economic indicators; The eurozone trade balance for September is expected today to fall from 20.3 billion euros to 18.7 billion, US retail sales are projected to grow by 0.1% in October from -0.3% in September. Concern is caused by industrial production in the US for October, the forecast is -0.4%.



    So, after the correction is over, we are waiting for a new round of euro decline. Overcoming the first support at 1.0985 opens the way to the second goal 1.0925.


    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  2. #382
    Senior Member IFX Gertrude's Avatar
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    Control zones USDJPY 11/18/19

    The pair tested the WCZ 1/2 108.48-108.38 last Thursday. Consolidation below the zone did not occur, therefore, the upward medium-term impulse remains a priority. The first growth target is the November high. Its achievement will make it possible to close part of the purchases and transfer the rest to breakeven.



    Closing Friday trades made it possible to form an absorption pattern of the daily level, which confirms the bullish momentum.

    Re-absorption of Friday purchases will be required to implement an alternative option. The probability of this is below 30%, which does not make it possible to consider sales. The main goal of the bullish impulse is the weekly control zone 110.15-109.94, which gives a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for any purchase made from current levels and below. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the possibility of adding to a long position.



    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  3. #383
    Senior Member IFX Gertrude's Avatar
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    Pound breaks the rules of the game

    The unwillingness of the Brexit Party to continue the struggle for seats in the renewed Parliament was the catalyst for the GBP/USD rally in the direction of the psychologically important mark of 1.3. In 2017, out of 43 seats now owned by Nigel Faraj's followers, 17 were held by the Conservatives, 11 by the Labour Party. The chances of the Tories' victory on December 12 are growing, and according to a poll by Bloomberg experts, their win will allow the pound to fly to $1.34. In such conditions, bulls will find it difficult not to fall into euphoria.

    According to a Savanta ComRes poll, the Conservative Party has a 10-point lead over the opposition Labour. Studies by Ipsos Mori showed that 25% of respondents believe in the Tory victory, a third of respondents believe that Boris Johnson's supporters will lead the coalition in the new Parliament. The prime minister himself claims that Conservatives will end the uncertainty that is hampering Britain's economy. Indeed, weaker GDP growth than Reuters experts expected, job cuts, inflation slowdowns and disappointing retail sales statistics indicate that Great Britain is in pain from market uncertainties.

    As a result, the 5% sterling rally for the last quarter runs counter to the principle of fundamental analysis "strong economy - strong currency". I would not be surprised if weak data on business activity in Britain lead to a continuation of the rally of the analyzed pair, because in this situation the chances of the Conservatives winning will increase.

    Theoretically, the volatility, growing like a yeast, should also exert pressure on the pound. Due to the volatility of quotes, GBP has often been called the "Great British Peso" recently, comparing it with the currencies of developing countries. In fact, the current level of volatility suggests that after a month the sterling will either rise to $1.32, or fall to $1.25. The first option seems more plausible than the second. Pound Volatility Dynamics



    The pound is able to restore the bullish trend before December, however, to begin with, it needs to be tested by the publication of the minutes of the October FOMC meeting and political debate. In his speeches at a press conference following the Federal Reserve meeting and before the US Congress, Jerome Powell put a high barrier to changing the rate on federal funds. Its current level of 1.75% is considered by the central bank as comfortable, and reduction is possible only in two cases: with the escalation of the trade conflict in Washington and Beijing and with a significant and prolonged deterioration of US macroeconomic statistics. As a result, the derivatives market believes that before the fall of 2020, changes in the monetary policy of the Fed should not be expected. If the minutes of the October FOMC meeting confirms this, the US dollar may receive some preferences.

    Technically, the GBP/USD update of the October highs will increase the risks of continuing the upward campaign to the area of 1,322-1,327, where the Bat and AB = CD targets are located, as well as the Pivot levels. While sterling is trading above $1.2725-1.275, the situation is under the control of the bulls.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  4. #384
    Senior Member IFX Gertrude's Avatar
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    #USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 20, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

    Minuette operational scale (H4) Commodity currencies - Here's a comprehensive analysis of the options for the development of the movement #USDX vs AUD / USD vs NZD / USD vs USD / CAD for November 20, 2019 on the Minuette operational scale forks (H4 time frame)

    ____________________

    US dollar Index

    The dollar index continues to remain in the 1/2 Median Line channel (97.65 - 97.92 - 98.15) of the Minuette operational scale forks, respectively, the further development of the #USDX movement from November 20, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the above levels. The details of the development are shown on animated chart.

    The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 97.65) of the Minuette operational scale forks - continuation of the downward movement #USDX to the equilibrium zone (97.40 - 97.15 - 96.92) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 98.15), the movement of the dollar index can be continued towards the goals: control line UTL (98.27) of the Minuette operational scale forks

    - local maximum 98.45 - lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (98.50) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (98.87).

    The markup of #USDX movement options from November 20, 2019 is shown on the animated chart.



    ____________________

    Australian dollar vs US dollar

    The development of the movement of the Australian dollar AUD / USD from November 20, 2019 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6812 - 0.6825 - 0.6842) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details of the development of the boundaries of this channel are presented on the animated chart.

    The breakdown of the resistance level of 0.6842 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel is the continuation of the movement of the Australian dollar to the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6855) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the equilibrium zone (0.6865 - 0.6890 - 0.6915) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    However, in the event of a breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 0.6812) on the Minuette operational scale, it will be possible to continue the downward movement of AUD / USD to the targets: the initial SSL Minuette line (0.6785) - local minimum 0.6770 - LTL Minuette control line (0.6760) - upper boundary ISL38.2 (0.6745) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    From November 20, 2019, we look at the layout of the AUD / USD movement options on the animated chart.



    ____________________

    New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

    From November 20, 2019, the development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD / USD will be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

    resistance level of 0.6415 on the control line UTLof the Minuette operational scale forks;
    support level of 0.6395 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    The breakdown of the UTL control line (resistance level of 0.6415) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the continuation of the development of the upward movement of NZD / USD to the equilibrium zone (0.6450 - 0.6475 - 0.6500) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

    In contrast, the breakdown of support level of 0.6395 will cause the movement of the New Zealand dollar to continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6395 - 0.6380 - 0.6360) of the Minuette operational scale forks, and if the breakdown of the lower boundary (0.6360) of this channel takes place, then the downward movement of this currency instrument can continue goals: local minimums (0.6330 - 0.6318) - control line LTL Minuette (0.6300) - 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6275 - 0.6230 - 0.6185) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    From November 20, 2019, we look at the layout of the NZD / USD movement options on the animated chart.



    ____________________

    US dollar vs Canadian dollar

    Similarly, the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD / CAD from November 20, 2019 will also be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

    resistance level of 1.3210 at the lower boundary of ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
    support level of 1.3200 at the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    The breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 1.3200) will make the development of the Canadian dollar to continue in the equilibrium zone (1.3200 - 1.3180 - 1.3160) of the Minuette operational scale forks followed by the continuation thereof in the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.3160 - 1.3130 - 1.3100) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

    On the contrary, the breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (resistance level of 1.3210) - the development of the USD / CAD movement in the equilibrium zone (1.3210 - 1.3252 - 1.3295) of the Minuette operational scale forks, taking into account the development of the SSL initial line (1.3262) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the local maximum 1.3270.

    From November 20, 2019, we look at the markup of the USD / CAD movement options on the animated chart.



    ____________________

    The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders " sell " or " buy ")

    The formula for calculating the dollar index:

    USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
    where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
    Euro - 57.6%;
    Yen - 13.6%;
    Pound Sterling - 11.9%;
    Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
    Swedish Krona - 4.2%;
    Swiss franc - 3.6%.

    The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  5. #385
    Senior Member IFX Gertrude's Avatar
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    Trading idea for the AUD/USD pair

    Good evening, dear traders! The growth of AUD / USD is what is interesting today. As we remember, unemployment data was published in Australia last week on November 14, to which this instrument reacted negatively: the AUD/USD currency pair was declining throughout the whole day. An important detail is that during the fall, an important extreme at 0.6810 was updated. Thus, I believe that this was a culmination of the downward trend in November, and given the reaction of the Australian dollar to this week's news, I think that local growth is possible to the level of 0.6843, which is the news' high on Wednesday. Now, why exactly this level? It's simple - every seller who believes in a further fall of this instrument will clearly depend precisely on the news impulse on November 14, so the price can go there with a high degree of probability.

    [IMG]https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191121/analytics5dd5cf772d1f3.png
    [/IMG]

    Recommendation: try to buy in order to update the level of 0.6943. At the same time, losses can be limited to the lowest level of 0.6788 - there is no sense in holding purchases below, and in case of updating this minimum, the bullish scenario can be considered invalid.

    Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  6. #386
    Senior Member IFX Yvonne's Avatar
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    GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!


    Price is approaching our first support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.

    Entry: 1.28978

    38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

    Take Profit : 1.29731

    Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance





    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

  7. #387
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    GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!



    Price is approaching our first resistance a 1.28722 where we are expecting a drop to our first support level at 1.27697.

    Entry: 1.28722
    23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance
    Take Profit : 1.27697
    Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  8. #388
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    Developing USD/CAD pair and trading idea

    During the previous recommendation on Friday,it is advised to develop the pair at least on a false breakdown of the level of 1.3269. Actually, this is exactly the outcome we are observing - on the news, this level was falsely broken, and thus, the recommendation completely justified itself. The plan was this:



    Thus far, the intrigue of the instrument continues. False news breakdown of this level provides a good opportunity for the development of further medium-term upward trend. Since the end of October, there has been a prolonged upward trend on for this instrument, and the probability of its continuation is still high. For this reason, there is another recommendation for the same instrument today. I believe that the development will continue to a minimum to the level of 1.3326. Therefore, you can try to buy with a goal of updating it, limiting the risks at the price of 1.3254, since it makes no sense to keep purchases below the news last Friday. Updating Friday's minimum - the bullish scenario will be completely canceled.



    Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  9. #389
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    Take profit on AUD/USD pair

    Good evening, dear traders! Congratulations to those who took advantage of our trading idea for the AUD/USD pair, which was provided last November 25.

    Let me remind you that the idea was to develop the lower daily area in a downward trend:



    As you can see, the first goal is taken:



    The collapse did not follow, so I recommend taking profits.

    Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow morning!

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

  10. #390
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2019

    EUR/USD
    On Wednesday, US statistics continued to delight investors and markets swayed towards the dollar. The euro lost 22 points. GDP for the third quarter amounted to 2.1% against the expectation of 1.9%, the volume of orders for durable goods increased by 0.6% in October against the forecast of -0.5%,



    On the daily chart, the price went below the MACD indicator line. If today closes with a black candle, then the price will consolidate below it with the prospect of a medium-term decline. The immediate goal of this movement at 1.0925 is the lowest level of September 3 and 12. In the four-week period, the price of 1.0720/30 can be reached - the lower line of the blue price channel (visible on a very tight chart). The Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon in the negative trend zone, volatility is likely to be low in the thin market today.



    On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated under the blue line of MACD. The range between the levels of 1.0985-1.1026 is likely to be today (perhaps even tomorrow) a consolidation zone.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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