Daily Market News by Xtreamforex.com

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EUR / USD

The EUR declined 0.32% against the USD on Friday and closed at 1.1157.

The Euro was under pressure early in the prior week as sentiment surged towards the USD following some comments from the Fed?s Janet Yellen which suggested that the requirements for a rate hike had almost been met. Subsequently, it is salient to take a quick look at what occurred last week and what is potentially on the horizon for the pair.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1172 and fall through could take it to the next support level 1.1169

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1180 and arise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1185

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FOREX – Market Morning Briefing

The expectation of a rate hike next week turned lower with some disappointing US data released yesterday. Volatility and some choppy movement are possible in the currency pairs before the FOMC.

The US Dollar Index (95.289) is likely to remain choppy in the 95.67-94.70 region before the FOMC next week.

The Euro (1.1241) is choppy and may trade sideways for a few sessions. The currency could be trapped between immediate resistance and support levels near 1.13 and 1.120 respectively.

Dollar Yen (102.049) is trading along the resistance near 103 (revised from 103.50-104) and is trapped in the 101-103 region for now. Scope of a fall towards 100.00-99.55 is possible while 103 holds but that may come in only in the latter half of next week. Else continuous re-testing of the upper resistance could lead to an eventual breakout on the upside in the longer term. As mentioned yesterday the broad 100-105 region could hold on for several days.

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EUR/USD – Daily Market News BY XtreamForex (https://www.xtreamforex.com/)

The EUR declined 0.21% against the USD and closed at 1.1200. The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Germany’s producer price index unexpectedly dropped by 0.1% on a monthly basis in August, compared to market expectations for a flat reading and following a rise of 0.2% in the prior month.

Macroeconomic data released in the US indicated that housing starts dropped more-than-expected by 5.8% on a monthly basis in August, to an annual rate of 1142.0K, dampening optimism over the health of the nation’s housing sector. Markets were anticipating housing starts to ease to a level of 1190.0K, compared to a revised level of 1212.0K in the previous month. Additionally, the nation’s building permits surprisingly fell by 0.4% MoM in August, to an annual rate of 1139.0K, compared to a revised reading of 1144.0K in the previous month.

During Asian session the pair was trading at 1.1154, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1128, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1101.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1197, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1239.

All investors attention to the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be held later today.

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FOREX – Market Morning Briefing By xtreamForex

The Major currencies gained against the Dollar last night even as Equities fell globally. But, most of them are back near levels seen yesterday morning and could cede some more ground to the Dollar. The really big gainer is the Aussie (0.7658) which has moved up from a low of 0.7610, as it seems to be benefitting from strength in Commodities in general. As suggested yesterday, a rise towards 0.7710-45 is possible.

Crucial Support at 100 is holding on Dollar-Yen (100.68) so far and a test of 101.90 may be possible. But there will be a sharp decline in case the Support at 100 breaks. Euro (1.1240) has found Resistance near 1.1280 last night and could dip towards 1.1200-1150.

The Pound (1.2973) is appearing increasingly vulnerable to a fall towards 1.2825-2785, which could accelarate into a deeper decline later. It is already losing against the Euro (EURGBP = 0.8665) and Yen (GBPJPY = 130.66). However, like Dollar-Yen, the Pound-Yen might not break below 129.00 easily.

Asian currencies, especially the Malaysian Ringgitt (4.1246),are relatively weak. On the other hand, the BRIC currencies, in general, remain strong at the moment, but could give back their gains in the coming weeks.

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EUR/USD
Technical Overview:
Prev. Close 1.1211
Open 1.1211
Day’s Range 1.1205 - 1.1216
52 wk Range 1.0538 - 1.1616
1-Year Return - 0.04%
Support and Resistance:
Daily Camarilla Technical analysis shows that, the EUR/USD pair may finds the immediate support at 1.1207 below which 1.1203 and 1.1199 could be tested. On the other side the immediate resistance 1.1215 and may go for further test 1.1219. A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.1223.
Technical Indication: Strong Sell

GBP/USD
Technical Overview:
Prev. Close 1.2836
Open 1.2836
Day’s Range 1.2829 - 1.286
52 wk Range 1.2796 - 1.5513
1-Year Return - 15.4%
Support and Resistance:
Daily Camarilla Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD pair finds the immediate support is placed at 1.2831 below which 1.2819 and 1.2806 could be tested. On the other side the immediate resistance 1.2855. A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.2867 and from there to 1.2880.
Technical Indication: Strong Sell

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EUR/USD
Technical Overview:
Prev. Close 1.1054
Open 1.1054
Day?s Range 1.1042 - 1.1068
52 wk Range 1.0538 - 1.1616
1-Year Return - 2.75%
Support and Resistance:
Daily Camarilla Technical analysis shows that, the EUR/USD pair may finds the immediate support at 1.1050 below which 1.1041 and 1.1033 could be tested. On the other side the immediate resistance 1.1066. If market breaks the immediate resistance then door will open for a test of 1.1075 and from there to 1.1083.
Market Trending: Down

GBP/USD
Technical Overview:
Prev. Close 1.2124
Open 1.2124
Day?s Range 1.2106 - 1.2319
52 wk Range 1.1450 - 1.5513
1-Year Return -20.09
Support and Resistance:
Daily Camarilla Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD pair finds the immediate support is at 1.2096 below which 1.2070 and 1.2043 could be tested. On the other side the immediate resistance 1.2150. If market breaks the immediate resistance then door will open for a test of 1.2176 and from there to 1.2203.
Market Trending: Down

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Daily Forex Technical Analysis by XtreamForex



EUR/USD
Technical Analysis Overview:
Prev. Close 1.0986
Open 1.0991
Day’s Range 1.0961 - 1.0991
52 wk Range 1.0538 - 1.1616
1-Year Return - 0.32%

Support and Resistance:
Daily Camarilla Forex Technical analysis shows that, the EUR/USD pair may find the immediate support at 1.0982 below which 1.0980 and 1.0979 could be tested. On the other side the immediate resistance 1.0984 and may go for further test 1.0986. A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0987

Upcoming Economic News:
1. EUR - German Retail Sales m/m at 10.00 AM
2. EUR - CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 01.00 PM
3. EUR - Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 01.00 PM
4. EUR - Prelim Flash GDP q/q at 01.00 PM
5. EUR - Italian Prelim CPI m/m at 01.00 PM


GBP/USD
Technical Overview:
Prev. Close 1.2192
Open 1.2187
Day’s Range 1.2176 - 1.2215
52 wk Range 1.1450 - 1.5498
1-Year Return - 21.01%

Support and Resistance:
Daily Camarilla Forex Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD pair may find the immediate support at 1.2204 below which 1.2200 and 1.2197 could be tested. On the other side the immediate resistance 1.2210. A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.2214 and from there to 1.2217.

Upcoming Economic News:
1. GBP - Net Lending to Individuals m/m at 12.30 PM
2. GBP - M4 Money Supply m/m at 12.30 PM
3. GBP - Mortgage Approvals at 12.30 PM

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USD/JPY
Technical Overview:
Prev. Close 104.14
Open 104.14
Day’s Range 103.67 - 104.17
52 wk Range 99.08 - 123.69
1-Year Return - 13.81%

Support and Resistance:
Daily Camarilla Technical analysis shows USD/JPY pair may find the immediate support at 103.69 below which 103.67 and 103.65 could be tested. On the other side the immediate resistance 103.73. A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 103.75 and from there to 103.77.
Upcoming Important Economic News:
1. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 03.15 PM
2. USD - Crude Oil Inventories at 05.30 PM
3. USD - FOMC Statement at 09.00 PM
4. USD - Federal Funds Rate at 09.00 PM


USD/CAD
Technical Overview:
Prev. Close 1.3390
Open 1.3390
Day’s Range 1.3384 - 1.3402
52 wk Range 1.2458 - 1.4692
1-Year Return +2.24%

Support and Resistance:
Daily Camarilla Forex Technical analysis shows USD/CAD pair may find the immediate support at 1.3383 below which 1.3376 and 1.3369 could be tested. On the other side the immediate resistance 1.3397. A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1 1.3404 and from there to 1.3411.
Upcoming Economic News:
1. CAD - Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks at 08.30 PM

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EUR USD Forecast for the Week 07 to 11 November,2016

EUR/USD recovered at the beginning of November. EUR/USD had a highly productive time last week as it climbed to its highs over the last 3 weeks. It was largely helped by the weakness in the USD across the board as global risks continued to dominate the headlines. Euro-zone inflation remains subdued. Despite a rise in the headline CPI, core inflation did not budge, causing a headache for the ECB. GDP growth was OK as 0.3%, but also failed to excite. In the US, the FED and the NFP had their word ahead of the elections. Clinton remains in the lead, albeit a narrower one, due to the FBI Effect. The US Non-Farm Payrolls were quite upbeat, with the biggest gain in wages since 2009, but markets focus on the elections.

EUR USD Technical Forecast:
Previous week close 1.1138
Current Week Open: 1.1061
Today’s Market Range: 1.1055 - 1.1141
52 wk Range: 1.0538 - 1.1616

Support and Resistance Forecast:
S 1: 1.1119
S 2: 1.1099
S 3: 1.1080

R 1: 1.1157
R 2: 1.1177
R 3: 1.1196

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EUR USD Market News

Today forex technical market news shows EUR market decreased -0.99% against the USD yesterday. EUR USD market closed at 1.0910. Today market will range 1.0909 – 1.0953.

Today the EUR / USD started at 1.0910 in Asia, down from yesterday close. The EUR USD is trading now at 1.0945, which is 0.30% up from today’s opening price.
EUR/USD retreated 0.83% to 1.0935, off a two-month peak of 1.1300 hit overnight.
The dollar initially plunged after Trump was declared the 45th U.S. President, confounding expectations for a Democratic victory.

Trump received a call from his opponent Hillary Clinton to concede the presidency, after he clinched victories in the key battleground states of Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

Following the market news, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said the ECB is ready to intervene in markets in an emergency.

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EUR USD Technical Analysis 23rd November, 2016
Technical Analysis Overview:

Prev. Close 1.0625
Open 1.0625
Day’s Range 1.0622 – 1.0635
52 wk Range 1.0538 – 1.1616
1-Year Return – 0.01%

Technical Support and Resistance

In terms of EUR USD Technical analysis the EUR/USD pair will find its immediate support at 1.0619. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 1.0612 and 1.0604. On the other side the market has immediate resistance 1.0633. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, market will go for the new resistance level 1.0640 and 1.0648.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0622 supports and 1.0635 resistances.

Along with technical analysis following economic event is very important to analyze the financial market properly.

Upcoming Important Economic News in EUROPE: (GMT +2)

1. French Flash Manufacturing PMI at 10am
2. French Flash Services PMI at 10am
3. German Flash Manufacturing PMI at 10.30am
4. German Flash Services PMI at 10.30am
5. Flash Manufacturing PMI at 11am
6. Flash Services PMI at 11am
7. German 10-y Bond Auction ( all day long)

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Daily USD JPY Technical Analysis 25th November, 2016

Technical Analysis Overview:

Prev. Close 113.36
Open 113.36
Day’s Range 113.20 - 113.90
52 wk Range 99.08 - 123.67
1-Year Return - 7.31%

Technical Support and Resistance:

Daily USD JPY Technical analysis shows USD JPY pair may find the immediate support at 113.23. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 113.11 and 113.00. On the other side the market has immediate resistance 113.84. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, market will go for the new resistance level 114.33 and 115.08.
Expected trading range for today is between 113.20 supports and 113.90 resistance.

Along with technical analysis following economic event are very important to analyze the financial market properly.


Important Economic Events In Japany: (GMT +2)

1. Tokyo Core CPI y/y
2. National Core CPI y/y
3. SPPI y/y
4. BOJ Core CPI y/y

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EUR USD Forecast for the Week 21st November, 2016

The EUR/USD had a strong negative candle. Market is testing the 1.05 level almost immediately. If we break down below there, as per the EUR USD forecast the Euro will very easily reach the parity level over the next several weeks.

The US yields continued to rise on Friday as well. as it has been the case over the past couple of weeks and this has enabled the USD to continue to gain strength. No currency has been able to survive this onslaught and it has all been one way traffic for the past couple of weeks. This has hit the euro very hard especially as the QE continues to take its toll on the euro. Neither Draghi, nor the ECB has not yet signaled any kind of tapering or stopping of the QE as yet and this, along with the USD strength, has caused the EURUSD pair to crash through 1.0800 during the last week and it also crashed through 1.0600 and sits at a tough support region at around 1.0580 to end the week.
The region between 1.0500 and 1.0600 has been known to be a tough support region but it all depends on the yield.

Upcoming economic events to the coming week, we have Draghi making a speech on Monday but we will not be looking forward too much to it as he does not have the habit of addressing monetary policy unless absolutely necessary. So far, no one in the ECB has expressed concern about the value of the euro and so we do not expect him to say much. We also have the FOMC statement on Wednesday where the market would expect further hints, signs and confirmation of a rate hike in December. If this happens, we can expect the dollar strength to continue.

EUR USD Technical Forecast:

Previous week close: 1.0607
Current Week Open: 1.0582
Today’s Market Range: 1.0579 – 1.0614
52 wk Range: 1.0538 – 1.1616

Support and Resistance Weekly Forecast:

S 1: 1.0486
S 2: 1.0384
S 3: 1.0201

R 1: 1.0771
R 2: 1.0954
R 3: 1.1056

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Daily GBP USD Technical Analysis 29th November, 2016

Technical Analysis Overview:

Prev. Close 1.2415
Open 1.2415
Day’s Range 1.2389 - 1.242
52 wk Range 1.1450 - 1.5240
1-Year Return -17.54%

Technical Support and Resistance:

In the end of every month we see lots of selling of GBP. Yesterday GBP market was weak against USD, and the pair finished its day near 1.2415. Which is 0.48% lower than the yesterday opening. Expected market range for today is 1.2389 - 1.242.

Daily GBP USD Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD pair may find the immediate support at 1.2353. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 1.2292 and 1.2202. On the other side the market has immediate resistance at 1.2504. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, market will go for the new resistance level 1.2594 and 1.2655.

This morning has seen some serious GBP weakening against USD.

Today, we do not have any major news from the UK for today while we have the advance GDP that will be released from the US and we can expect some more volatility today as well as we approach the month end and the month end flows are likely to continue today and tomorrow as well. Expect some consolidation with a bearish bias.

Along with technical analysis following economic event are very important to analyze the financial market properly.


GBP USD Important Economic Events: (GMT +2)
1. GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
2. GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
3. GBP Mortgage Approvals
4. GBP Nationwide HPI m/m

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AUD/USD Forecast | Daily Technical Analysis for January 5, 2017 By XtreamForex

AUD/USD Technical Forecast Overview

Yesterday Close 0.7282
Today Open 0.7282
Day’s Range 0.7273 - 0.7315
52 wk Range 0.6824 - 0.7836
1-Year Return 1.93%

AUD/USD Technical Support and Resistance Forecast


AUD/USD forecast: aud usd pair possibly will find the immediate support at 0.7228. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 0.7208 and 0.7177.

On the other side the market has immediate resistance at 0.7290. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, market will go for the new resistance level 0.7310 and 0.7341.

Possible trading range for today 0.7273 - 0.7315

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis

The AUD/USD pair rallied on Wednesday, as we continue to see bullish pressure in the Australian dollar after the base that seems to be trying to form near the 0.7150 level. However, I think that this rally is simply a matter of the market being oversold, and that we will find sellers above. My suspicion is that they are waiting somewhere near the 0.73 level, perhaps the 0.7350 handle. Gold markets are very bearish overall, so sooner rather than later I think the bearish pressure will return to the Australian dollar. I have no interest in buying.

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EURUSD Forecast | Daily Technical Analysis for January 13, 2017


EURUSD pair possibly will find its immediate support at 1.0578. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 1.0551 and 1.0506.

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EUR USD Technical Overview
Yesterday Closed 1.0630
Today Open 1.0630
Day’s Range 1.0622 – 1.0642
52 wk Range 1.0339 – 1.1616
1-Year Return – 2.6%

EUR USD Technical Support and Resistance
EUR USD Forecast: EUR USD pair possibly will find the immediate support at 1.0622. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 1.0600 and 1.0565.
On the other side, the market has immediate resistance 1.0692. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, market will go for the new resistance level 1.0714 and 1.0749.

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USD/CAD Forecast | Daily Technical Forecast for January 20, 2017

USD/CAD Technical Support and Resistance

USD/CAD pair possibly will find the immediate support at 1.3268. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test.
Followingsupports are 1.3244 and 1.3204.
On the other side the market has immediate resistance 1.3348. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, market will go for the new resistance level 1.3372
and 1.3412.Looking ahead to today, we have the retail sales and CPI data from Canada that will be released towards the NY session and any sort of weakness in any of these data should confirm the weakness in the Canadian economy that the BOC seems to fear and we could then see the pair pushing above 1.3400 and towards 1.3500.

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GBP/USD Forecast | Daily Technical Forecast for January 20, 2017

GBP/USD Technical Support and Resistance
GBP/USD pair possibly will find the immediate support at 1.2276. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test.
Following supports are 1.2255 and 1.2958
On the other side the market has immediate resistance 1.2348. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then,
market will go for the new resistance level 1.2369 and 1.2405.Looking ahead to today,
we have the retail sales data from the UK which will be released during the London session and we believe that the data would continue the trend of strong data coming out of the UK in recent months. If this does happen, we could see the pair challenging 1.2400 again.

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EUR/USD Forecast | Daily Technical Forecast for January 20, 2017

EUR/USD Technical Support and Resistance

EUR/USD pair possibly will find the immediate support at 1.0609. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test.
Following supports are 1.0587 and 1.0553.
On the other side the market has immediate resistance 1.0677. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then,
market will go for the new resistance level 1.0699 and 1.0733.
Looking ahead to today, we do not have any major news from the eurozone or the US region and as said above,
we can expect some more consolidation at the highs in this pair for today.

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Possible trading range for today 1.0745 - 1.0772
The EURUSD pair continues to trade strongly as the dollar weakness continues across the board. When the new year began, everyone expected the dollar strength to return.
EUR/USD pair possibly will find its immediate support at 1.0705. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 1.0684 and 1.0649.
On the other side, we found immediate resistance at 1.0775 from our EUR/USD technical analysis. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, for sure market will go for the new resistance level 1.0796 and 1.0831.

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GBPUSD Technical Forecast Overview

Yesterday Closed 1.2521
Today Open 1.2521
Day’s Range 1.2513 - 1.2542
52 wk Range 1.1450 - 1.5020
1-Year Return - 12.04%

GBPUSD Technical Support and Resistance

Possible trading range for today 1.2513 - 1.2542
GBPUSD pair possibly will find the immediate support at 1.2442. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 1.2363 and 1.2311.
On the other side the market has immediate resistance at 1.2573. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, market will go for the new resistance level 1.2625 and 1.2704.

GBPUSD Fundamental Analysis

We had mentioned the same thing in our forecast yesterday where we had said that the ruling was expected to uphold the earlier decision which made the Parliament approval mandatory. We had also mentioned that though this would be good for the pound overall, there was a likelihood of a buy the rumor, sell the fact kind of move and this is what we saw yesterday as well as the pair crashed through 1.2500 and went as low as 1.2420 following the ruling but then it spent the rest of the day recovering. As of this morning, it has managed to recover its entire loss and sits below 1.2550 and we believe that this move in the pound has the legs to carry it as far as 1.27 or 1.28. This ruling is positive for the pound in the short term but its long term effects and the subsequent delays could place a lot of pressure on the pound in the medium term.
We do not have any major news from the UK but we have the oil inventory data from the US later on in the day which has the capacity to bring in risk into the markets. We believe that the GBPUSD pair will consolidate through the day with a bullish bias.


EURUSD Forecast | Daily Technical Analysis for January 25, 2017

EURUSD Technical Overview

Yesterday Close 1.0731
Today Open 1.0731
Day’s Range 1.0722 - 1.0738
52 wk Range 1.0339 - 1.1616
1-Year Change - 1.09%

EURUSD Technical Support and Resistance

Our Possible trading range for today 1.0722 - 1.0738
EURUSD pair possibly will find its immediate support at 1.0707. If, market breaks the first support then it will go for the following support to test. Following supports are 1.0683 and 1.0649.
On the other side, we found immediate resistance at 1.0765 from our EURUSD technical analysis. If, market breaks the primary resistance level then, for sure market will go for the new resistance level 1.0799 and 1.0823.
EURUSD Fundamental Analysis
We had mentioned in our forecast yesterday that the EURUSD pair was at a crucial region of resistance which it would find hard to break through soon and that’s what we have been seeing over the past 24 hours as the pair consolidates just below that region, unable to find a way through. And with the twitter happy President of the USA also choosing to remain silent for a day, contrary to his character, the dollar also got a little breather and it managed to hold its own against all the currencies and this was another reason for the consolidation and ranging in the EURUSD pair.
We have the German IFO business climate which is expected to continue to show up the strong German economy and we also have the oil inventory data from the US and any drop in that should be able to increase the oil prices and increase the risk around the markets.

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The USDJPY had a volatile week in terms of changes in direction. As far as the price action is concerned

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GBP USD Technical Overview

Yesterday Closed 1.2660
Today Open 1.2660
Day’s Range 1.2654 – 1.2680
52 wk Range 1.1450 – 1.5020
1-Year Return – 12.01%

GBPUSD Technical Support and Resistance

Possible trading range for today 1.2654 – 1.2680

GBP USD Fundamental Analysis

The GBP USD pair had a pretty strong day yesterday as the pound is only one of the very few currencies that seems to be capable of holding on by itself whenever there is dollar strength. There seems to be some intrinsic strength built within the pound and the reason for that could be the continuing good economic data from the UK. This has been holding up the pound and that is the reason why the corrections have been shallow and have been met with some quick bounces.
Today is going to be a key day for the GBP USD pair as we have the BOE rate announcement and the policy meeting minutes and we also have the quarterly inflation report from the UK as well. The rate is expected to be kept on hold but the BOE will have to act out a tough balancing act as it needs to take care of the economy and also ensure that the impact of the Brexit doesn’t hit the economy too hard. With the government, yet unclear on how exactly the whole Brexit process is going to pan out, the markets would be expecting the BOE to help out and do the needful in a strong manner to give out some confidence to the market in the pound. It remains to be seen whether that is addressed in the statement and the inflation report. The pair is in a key area now and these data would be valuable in determining the short-term direction of the pound.

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EUR USD Technical Overview

Yesterday Close 1.0759
Today Open 1.0759
Day’s Range 1.0745 – 1.0772
52 wk Range 1.0339 – 1.1616
1-Year Change – 3.08%
EUR USD Technical Forecast

Our Possible trading range for today 1.0745 – 1.0772

EUR USD Fundamental Analysis

It’s been a very untidy past 24 hours for the EURUSD with the pair not knowing where to go and how to go about in a specific direction. It has been trying for a week or so to break through the glass ceiling at around the 1.0800 region and the best attempt at that region was made yesterday when it went as high as 1.0828 but it had to beat a hasty retreat as large scale selling started at that point and it fell back below 1.0800 and it trades just above 1.0760 as of this writing.
Its the NFP day today, probably one of the most important days in every month where a huge amount of volatility is bound to be witnessed. The last few employment reports have become especially important as the Fed has made it clear that if the incoming data continues to be good,
Apart from the NFP today, we have the average wage earnings data as well and the non-manufacturing PMI data from the US. We still believe that the dollar will ultimately strengthen and we do believe that the employment report today would come out strong to help support the dollar.

Read More: https://www.xtreamforex.com/Education/eur-usd-forecast-for-february-3-2017/

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Australia: Week ahead - TDS
Australia: Week ahead - TDS
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Analysts at TDS offer fresh insights on the key macro events due on the cards from Australia in the week ahead

Read More:https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-week-ahead

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GBP/USD – Inverted Hammer awaits bullish follow through
Wednesday’s inverted hammer candle on the GBP/USD chart offers a ray of hope for GBP bulls, although the strong US data releases and the heightened odds of the Fed rate hike in December could play spoil sport.

ReadMore:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/05/gbpusd-inverted-hammer-awaits-bullish-follow-through

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AUD/USD revisits session lows on RBA rate cut talk
AUD/USD fell back to a session low of 0.7772 after a Wall Street Journal report said that RBA board member Ian Harper sees scope for a rate cut if consumption across the economy loses momentum entirely.

ReadMore:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/06/audusd-revisits-session-lows-on-rba-rate-cut-talk

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GBP/JPY breaks the falling channel on BOE rate hike talk
GBP/JPY breached the falling channel to the upside and clocked a high of 149.07 as investors ignore political uncertainty in the UK and focus on increasing

ReadMore:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/12/gbpjpy-breaks-the-falling-channel-on-boe-rate-hike-talk

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EUR/USD: Further downside in play ahead of Catalan independence outcome
The EUR/USD pair breached the 1.1800 leaves for the first in three days on Monday, set-off the week on the defensive, as political uncertainty surrounding Catalonia’s independence vote remains the key focus

ReadMore:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/16/eurusd-further-downside-in-play-ahead-of-catalan-independence-outcome

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USD/JPY- Investors hedge against Japanese election risk
USD/JPY one-week risk reversals fell to -3.41 yesterday, its lowest level since May 1 while the one-week at-the-money option volatility rose to a 11-day high of 8.05

ReadMore:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/17/usdjpy-investors-hedge-against-japanese-election-risk

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China’s Xi: Will let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation
More comments flowing in from China’s President Xi, as he continues to speak at the opening of the 19th National Party Congress.

ReadMore:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/18/chinas-xi-will-let-the-market-play-a-decisive-role-in-resource-allocation

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USD/JPY clocks 2-week high of 113.19 as T-yields rise on the US tax reform news
The bid tone around the greenback strengthened, pushing the USD/JPY pair to a two-week high of 113.19 after news hit the wires that the US Senate has adopted a budget resolution

ReadMore:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/20/usdjpy-clocks-2-week-high-of-113-19-as-t-yields-rise-on-the-us-tax-reform-news

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UK retailers cut jobs in the third quarter at the fastest rate since 2008
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said today that its members cut jobs over the past three months at the fastest rate since 2008 due to technological changes and rising employment costs

Read More:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/26/uk-retailers-cut-jobs-in-the-third-quarter-at-the-fastest-rate-since-2008

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EU is preparing for no deal Brexit, says senior official
Stefaan De Rynck, an adviser to EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, said the European Union (EU) does not want a “no deal” scenario but is preparing for one

Read More:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/27/eu-is-preparing-for-no-deal-brexit-says-senior-official

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Germany to confirm size of expected budget surplus on Nov 9
Germany’s acting Finance Minister Peter Altmaier told broadcaster ARD on Sunday, Germany expects a budget surplus in 2017, but will not know its full extent until Nov. 9 when the finance ministry gets a new assessment of expected tax revenues, Reuters reports

ReadMore:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/2017/10/30/germany-to-confirm-size-of-expected-budget-surplus-on-nov-9

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2017: A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT FOR CENTRAL BANKS – RABOBANK

2017 may have been extraordinary in terms of the political influences on G10 FX markets, but central banks have stolen a fair share of market attention, according to Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“In total the Fed hiked rates 3 times in 2017 bringing the total to 5 policy moves since the end of 2015. Other central banks in the G10 have been warming up this year in preparation of a period of less policy accommodation. The pace of moves, or in some cases perhaps a lack of policy action, will be a dominating theme for G10 FX markets into 2018 and beyond.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/2017-changing-environment-central-banks-rabobank/


#forex #news #Trading #xtreamforex #forcast #forexsignal #makemoney #moneyfromhome

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FOREX TODAY: AUSSIE – A BIG MOVER IN ASIA, A LIGHT CALENDAR AHEAD

An eventless Asian session kicked-off yet another holiday-thinned week, as slowing volumes and irregular volatility persisted heading into the New Year break. There were no major macro news reported, excepted for the Chinese industrial profits and China’s Beige Book Survey, which had little impact on the fx space.

The Aussie emerged the top performer, gaining the most amid a broadly subdued USD and the recent strength in commodities’ prices. The Kiwi also followed suit while the Yen traded on the back foot, as yesterday’s comments from BOJ Kuroda offset a string of upbeat Japanese economic data.

Among other related markets, the Asian stocks traded mostly mixed, while gold prices hold near 3-week tops of $ 1288.40. WTI eased-off multi-year tops to trade below the $ 60 mark.

Main topics in Asia

BoJ’s Kuroda: Will patiently maintain powerful monetary easing

Reuters came out with the latest comments from the BoJ Governor Kuroda, delivered yesterday at the Keindanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo.

Gold reaches 3-week high amid thin trading

Gold has built on recent gains, currently trading at $1,282.00, following a resurgence in demand amid thin liquidity conditions.

China’s November industrial profit growth slowest since April

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/forex-today-aussie-big-mover-asia-light-calendar-ahead/

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EUR/USD SUPPORTED AT 1.2000 AHEAD OF EZ PMIS

DXY in doldrums
2017 highs of 1.2092 still in sight.
Manufacturing PMIs to dominate.
The EUR/USD pair extends its upside consolidative mode into Asia, now looking to retest three-month tops of 1.2030 levels ahead of the Euro area final manufacturing PMI releases.

EUR/USD: Bullish bias intact

Stepping into the New Year, the EUR/USD pair keeps its recent bullish momentum intact, as the US dollar remains broadly undermined on weaker Treasury yields, in the wake of expectations of the monetary policy convergence. Markets believe that the Fed could under-deliver on its rate hike expectations while the ECB could turn hawkish amid improving Eurozone economic prospects.

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at wrote, “The EUR/USD pair is not far from its 2017 multi-year high of 1.2092, and from a technical point of view, seems poised to extend its gains, despite these levels are highly uncomfortable for the ECB that fears a stronger currency will delay the progress towards their inflation target.”

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/eur-usd-supported-1-2000-ahead-ez-pmis/

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GBP/USD EYES SEPT 2017 HIGHS AHEAD OF UK CONSTRUCTION PMI

Strongest since mid-Sept 2017.
Further bullishness ahead.
The UK construction PMI – Up next.
The bulls weakened their grip in mid-Asia, allowing a brief phase of consolidation in the GBP/USD pair near four-month tops of 1.3605, as investors gear up for the UK construction PMI release.

GBP/USD: USD still remains the key driver

Amid risk-on trades seen in the Asian equities and positive oil prices, the spot remains better bid, largely unperturbed by a tepid broad-based US dollar recovery. Markets switch their positions and prefer to hold the US currency heading into the key FOMC Dec meeting minutes.

Meanwhile, the pair appears to gather pace for a test of September 2017 highs reached at 1.3657, having surpassed the Dec tops of 1.3552 in the US last session. The recent upsurge in Cable was mainly driven by broad USD weakness while a lack of Brexit headlines (mostly seen as bad) also added to the upside risks in the pound.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-eyes-sept-2017-highs-ahead-uk-construction-pmi/

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USD/JPY AIMS TO RETEST 113.0 AFTER FOMC MINUTES

Encouraging data out of the US, FOMC minutes lifts USD/JPY
USD/JPY technicals still suggests limited buying interest
USD/JPY has reached new session highs at the open of business in Tokyo, testing offers at 112.70 after the FOMC minutes/upbeat US data-induced rebound from Wednesday.

USD/JPY fueled by upbeat US data, FOMC minutes

As Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at notes: “The USD/JPY pair advanced up to 112.57 this Thursday, as stronger-than-expected US data lifted the greenback against its Japanese rival, later fueled by the release of FOMC Minutes. Not that the document surprised investors, but after the release, US Treasury yields recovered the ground lost earlier on the day, helping the pair to extend its daily gains. ”

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-aims-retest-113-0-fomc-minutes/

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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC CONTINUES STRONGLY, ETH ROCKETS THROUGH $1000

The BTC prices have slowed down considerably over the last month or so as the focus shifts to the ETH market
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The controlled nature of the moves in the bitcoin market are there for everyone to see. Ever since the introduction of the bitcoin futures around a month back, we have seen a large scale correction followed by some consolidation and now we are see some controlled uptrend, all signs of a mature market that is seeing the entry and playing of some large traders and investors. Ever since the futures were introduced, we had said that this was a seismic event in the growth of bitcoins and that it could change the way bitcoins are traded, forever. While it gave some additional credentials to the bitcoin industry, it also helped to draw in bigger players who would ensure that the market is kept under control.

Suggested Articles

Why Bitcoin Cash is Better than Bitcoin?
How to Buy Bitcoin Cash?
How to Short Bitcoin?

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-forecast/bitcoin-ethereum-price-forecast-btc-continues-strongly-eth-rockets-1000/

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GBP/USD DAILY FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST – JANUARY 9, 2018

The pound continues to trade between the 1.35 and 1.36 region and unless and until there is a breakout on either side, it is better for the traders to stay out
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The pair has been trading within a tight range over the last 24 hours as a period of consolidation has set in in the markets.The dollar has been holding steady and with yesterday being the first trading day of the week, there was more of trade positioning and watching of the price action by the traders and this limited the action in the markets.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-forecast/gbp-usd-daily-fundamental-forecast-january-9-2018/

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GBP/USD – 1.39 ON THE CARDS?


GBP/USD chewed through a key resistance zone on Friday.
CME data show max additions in 1.39 strike call option.
Technicals favor further upside.
Having defended 1.35 levels since the beginning of the year, the GBP/USDchewed through strong resistance in the 1.3659-1.3710 area on Friday and closed above 1.37 for the first time since June 2016.

The strong move upwards seems to have revived interest in the GBP/USDcalls. The CME data for GBP/USD February expiry options shows the open interest/open positions in call options rose by 1526 contracts on Friday. Meanwhile, the open interest in put options increased by a mere 408 contracts.

What’s more interesting is that open interest at 1.39 strike call went up by 754 contracts. Also, additions were seen in 1.3950 call, 1.40 call and 1.4050 call. The numbers indicate the investors could be betting on a further upside in the pair, possibly towards 1.39 levels.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-1-39-cards/

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NZD/USD ON A CORRECTIVE SLIDE NEAR 0.7300 AHEAD OF NZ GDT

DXY rebound caps the upside.
A stronger Yuan fix underpins.
Eyes on NZ GDT price index
The NZD/USD pair kicked-off Tuesday on a bearish note, correcting a part of yesterday’s rally to fresh 4-month tops of 0.7315, as the bulls take a breather ahead of the key NZ GDT price index release.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.7285

The spot failed to sustain above the 0.73 handle and corrected briefly before finding fresh bids near 0.7285 region, after the PBOC set the Yuan reference rate for today at 6.4372, the strongest since Dec-mid 2015. The NZD is used as a liquid proxy for bets on China, as China is New Zealand’s top trading partner.

However, the Kiwi keeps losses as the US dollar stages a minor rebound against its major peers after it fell to more-than three-year lows of 90.05 a day before. Increased expectations of higher global interests rates, suggests that the Fed is not the only central bank to move towards policy normalization this year, which in turn weighed heavily on the buck.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-corrective-slide-near-0-7300-ahead-nz-gdt/

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GBP/USD REJECTED AT 1.3835, SURRENDERS 1.3800

Closely tracks DXY price-action.
Brexit headlines will continue to weigh.
Focus shifts to the US industrial figures.
The GBP/USD pair failed once again to sustain above the 1.38 handle, now accelerating the corrective slide from fresh post-Brexit vote highs reached at 1.3836.

GBP/USD back to test 5-DMA at 1.3768

The spot ran into the key resistance zone located near 1.3835, as the US dollaris seen recovering early losses versus its main peers, having dipped to the lowest levels since Dec 2014 at 89.98. The USD index looks to stabilize near 90.25 levels, as attention now turns towards the US industrial production data due later on Wednesday.

The AceTrader Team explained, “although the greenback snapped its recent losing streak initially on Tuesday and staged a rebound against the majority of its peers on short-covering, the intra-day decline in U.S. stocks where the Dow tumbled from record highs of 26086 triggered renewed broad-based USD selling in late New York trade.”

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-rejected-1-3835-surrenders-1-3800/

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AUD/JPY – OFFERED ABOVE KEY FIB, TURNS NEGATIVE AFTER AUSSIE JOBS DATA

AUD/JPY offered near 89.00 levels.
Fails to hold above 88.690 – 76.4% Fib R of Sep-Nov drop.
Aussie Dec employment change beats estimates, jobless rate rises.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported better-than-expected December employment change figures, but the Aussie dollar is not impressed.

The AUD/JPY ran into offers 88.97 and hit a session low of 88.41 even though the ABS data showed more than 34K jobs were created across Australia last month, beating the estimated growth of 9K by a big margin. Also, the previous month’s print was revised higher to 63.6K from 61.6K.

Further, full-time employment change came in at 15.1k versus the upwardly revised 43.6k in November. However, the jobless rate ticked higher to 5.5 percent from 5.4 percent as expected.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-offered-key-fib-turns-negative-aussie-jobs-data/

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NZD/USD STUCK AT 0.73 FOR A FIFTH CONSECUTIVE SESSION

Kiwi struggles to cut through offers around 0.76.
Overbought technical conditions at play?
Focus on US-NZ yield spread and US government shutdown.
The NZD/USD is struggling to rise above 0.76 in a convincing manner for the fifth straight session.

Having rallied 7.67 percent from the November low of 0.6780, the pair looks overbought as per daily RSI. Still, the downside has been capped near 0.7230 this week, courtesy of broad-based US dollar weakness.

The story has not changed much this Friday. The US 10-year treasury yield rose above 2.63 percent; the highest level since December 2016. Still, the USD has failed to catch a bid. Also, keeping USD no the back foot are fears of a US government shutdown.

Earlier today, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to fund government operations through Feb. 16. However, the bill still needs an approval by the Senate, where it faces an uncertain future.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-stuck-0-73-fifth-consecutive-session/

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USD/JPY: BEARISH BELOW 100-D SMA AHEAD OF BOJ THIS WEEK

USD/JPY Bulls unable to get above 100-D SMA.
USD/JPY traders turn to BoJ this week.
In a day of no data in Asia, the market is quiet and USD/JPY is stationary in Tokyo around the closing prices for Friday. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 110.63 with a high of 11.85 and a low of 110.51.

Contained by the 10-D SMA, USD/JPY is consolidating the recent losses that occurred last week from 111.48 to aforementioned lows today despite strong US Treasury yields that climbed to their highest since September 2014. The 10-year yields finished up on Friday at 2.64% having ranged between 2.61% and 2.66%. Also, the US government shutdown was a thorn in the Bull’s hooves while we await the outcome of this week’s BoJ.

Special update: US Government officially shut down

BoJ on the cards this week

“The Bank of Japan also meets this week and under current term, this will be Kuroda’s last quarterly ‘outlook’ meeting. The BoJ Governor is likely to send a message that official interest rates are going nowhere just yet. With neither central bank likely to signal policy changes this week, further US$ weakness may be averted,” explained analysts at Westpac.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-bearish-100-d-sma-ahead-boj-week/

[xtreamforex.com]

GBP/USD RISES ABOVE 1.40 FOR THE FIRST SINCE POST-BREXIT VOTE

Cable peeps above 1.40 in Asia.
Defies weak UK data and rising treasury yields.
Will it hold above 1.40?
GBP/USD clocked a new post-Brexit vote high of 1.4003 and was last seen trading at 1.3990 levels.

As discussed yesterday, the rally looks unjustified if we take into account the widening 10-year UK-US yield spread. Also, the RSI has diverged on 1-hour and 4-hour time frame (has not made news highs along with price), signaling the potential for a pullback. Further, a false upside break would be confirmed if the spot closes below 1.3945 (Jan 19. high).

That said, the macro data out of UK has not been encouraging either. As Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management says, consumer price growth slowed year over year and retail sales nosedived in the month of December. Excluding auto purchases, retail sales experienced its largest decline in 7 months.

Hence, GBP bulls may find it hard to keep the pair above 1.40 unless the labor data due tomorrow shows a sharp rise in the wage growth figures.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-rises-1-40-first-since-post-brexit-vote/

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AUD/USD RALLIES HARD TO TEST 0.8100 ON AGGRESSIVE USD SELLING

DXY keeps falling.
Aussie nears Sept 2017 tops.
Focus shifts to the US data.
The offered tone around the US dollar keeps growing bigger, now pushing the AUD/USD pair sharply higher in a bid to regain 0.81 handle.

AUD/USD: Further upside still in play?

The Aussie extends its renewed upside into a second day this Friday, as the bulls continue to take advantage of the persistent weakness seen in the US dollar against its major rivals amid a change of stance by the US authorities on the US dollar exchange rate. The US dollar index came under aggressive selling pressure after the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that a weaker USD is good for trade opportunities.

Moreover, an extension of the weakness in Treasury yields combined with rising oil prices boosts the demand for the AUD as a higher-yielding currency while the rebound staged by its OZ counterpart, the NZD, following a big miss on the CPI figures, also provided extra legs to the ongoing rally in the spot.

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at, writes, “The strong momentum in commodities, with US oil above $65.00 a barrel and gold prices firmly above $1350.00 a troy ounce, fueled the rally. The pair is not far below 2017 high of 0.8124 achieved last September, a possible bullish target for the upcoming sessions.”

Markets now look forward to the US jobless claims, goods trade balance, and new home sales data for fresh trading opportunities in the day ahead.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-rallies-hard-test-0-8100-aggressive-usd-selling/

[xtreamforex.com]

USD/JPY BACK IN NO MAN’S LAND AFTER A TURBULENT NY SESSION

USD/JPY to crumble again or…?
USD/JPY not quite out of the woods yet.
After a day caught between the ECB surprise and the Trump comments sending the dollar all over the place overnight, currently, USD/JPY is trading at 109.60, up 0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 109.79 and low at 109.19.

USD/JPY rallied on the Trump comments around the dollar when he was speaking in a CNBC interview, saying that he wants a ‘strong dollar’, and reiterating the comments that he had made in Davos earlier when he said that Mnuchin comments were taken out of context. He said that the dollar was going to get “stronger and stronger”.

The dollar’s reversal

The dollar reversed to make a high of 89.5800 and a big figure higher than the lows of the day, closing near to the opening price of 89.2830 to end near enough flat on the day. US yields were in a range of between 2.61%-2.67% -0.97% on the day closing at 2.62%. USD/JPY collapsed to 108.49 before the Trump rally and a close of 109.40 after a high of 109.70 that was faded.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-back-no-mans-land-turbulent-ny-session/

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NZD/USD – CORRECTIVE MOVE ON CARDS?


USD due for a technical correction.
Upbeat US core PCE could yield boost USD.
The NZD/USD chart looks toppy.
“Technically, the dollar is due for a bounce, but on a fundamental basis, there needs to be a catalyst”, says Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management.

As Analysts at ANZ writes, “the focus this week will be the FOMC, non-farm payrolls, end-month flows and continued trade/political talks, such as NAFTA developments.”

That said, the NZD/USD might witness a healthy correction even on the back of upbeat US core personal consumption expenditure (due at 13:30 GMT), given the last week’s toppy price action after dismal NZ Q4 CPI reading.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-corrective-move-cards/

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GBP/USD – LOW ODDS OF FURTHER NEAR-TERM GBP GAINS?


Risk reversals indicate falling demand for GBP calls.
Theresa May is now odds-on to resign in 2018, most options will hurt sterling.
GBP/USD options activity indicates a near-term top could be in place at 1.4345 (Jan. 25 high).

The implied volatility premium for GBP calls over GBP puts has quickly faded, as indicated by the risk reversals, suggesting investors are less concerned about a further near-term rally in GBP.

GBP/USD One-week 25 delta risk reversals are paid at 0.22 GBP puts today from a 0.17 GBP call bias two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the benchmark 1-month 25 delta risk reversals are 0.03 GBP calls from 0.375 GBP calls last week (also the long-term high).

PM May’s resignation could hurt Pound

Speculation is on the rise that “window is closing” on PM May’s leadership after recent complaints about her lack of vision and rows about the direction of Brexit. That said, May’s exit could be bad for the British Pound.

Reuters report says, “of the eight shortest priced names-in-the-frame quoted by bookmaker

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-low-odds-near-term-gbp-gains/

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NZD/USD OFF 0.7365 SESSION HIGHS FOLLOWING CHINESE PMI DISAPPOINTMENT

Kiwi slips on bad China PMI.
USD gains mild intraday strength on Donald Trump comments during SOTU address
NZD/USD currently trading into the 0.7350 handle, slipping from Asia session highs of 0.7368 following the release of worse-than-expected PMI data from China.

Chinese PMI data(including manufacturing) for the month of January dipped lower to 51.3, falling slightly from 51.6 in the previous month. While contraction isn’t positive, the PMI is still comfortably above the 50-point mark, which acts as the waterline for growth or contraction.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-off-0-7365-session-highs-following-chinese-pmi-disappointment/

[xtreamforex.com]

AUD/JPY – RANGE TRADING CONTINUES

AUD/JPY mildly bid above 88.00.
AUD relatively resilient against USD.
But 88.50-87.70 range still intact.
Currently, AUD/JPY is up 0.14 percent at $88.07, largely due to an uptick in the USD/JPY pair and a flat AUD/USD pair.

The USD/JPY pair is up 0.13 percent seemingly due to the Fed’s upward revision of the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar is relatively resilient, despite a big drop in the building permits (reported earlier today). Thus, the AUD / JPY cross is mildly bid in Asia.

That said, the trading range of 88.50-87.70 is still intact. Considering the double top formation around 89.00, the pair will likely end the trading range with a downside break.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-range-trading-continues/

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AUD/USD HITS FRESH 3.5 WEEK LOW ON DISMAL AUSSIE DATA

AUD hit 3.5 week low of 0.7863.
Aussie Dec retail sales dropped more than expected.
Trade balance record a deficit in Dec.
There appears to be no relief in sight for the Aussie dollar as the currency received negative news on the domestic front amid risk aversion across global financial markets.

Australia retail sales dropped 0.5% in December
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a 0.5 percent drop in retail sales in December, suggesting consumption remained weak in the all-important festive season. Markets were expecting a 0.2 percent drop. Also, the previous month’s reading was revised higher from 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent.

Further, the trade balance recorded a deficit of AUD 1.36 billion in December compared to the AUD 0.2 billion surplus.

The Aussie dollar, which was already on the back foot, extended the losses to hit a fresh 3.5 week low of 0.7863. The AUD/USD pair was last seen trading at 0.7874 levels. The currency pair could remain flat-lined on account of caution ahead of the RBA rate decision.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-hits-fresh-3-5-week-low-dismal-aussie-data/

[xtreamforex.com]

NZD/USD DRIFTING IN TOKYO AFTER JOBS DATA BEAT, TRADING NEAR 0.7330

Kiwi slowly leaking back gains from positive data during a quiet Asia session.
Recent risk aversion sparked temporary Dollar popularity, Greenback selling set to continue.
NZD/USD trading doftly down in Asia, near 0.7330 after a good jump minutes before the NY close on a jobs data beat. The Kiwi has appreciated against the US Dollar the past two months as market confidence evaporated for the Greenback, but the recent bout of risk aversion seen in markets has sent the Dollar back up the charts, albeit briefly.

New Zealand’s RBNZ will be publishing their interest rate decision and monetary policy statement today at 20:00, and while the bank is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates for the time being, an overly hawkish tone from the RBNZ could send the Kiwi back up the charts.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-drifting-tokyo-jobs-data-beat-trading-near-0-7330/

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AUD/USD IS NOT IMPRESSED BY A RISE IN CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS

China iron ore imports increased by 15.7 million tonnes in January.
Yuan-denominated trade surplus narrowed to 135.8 billion.
AUD/USD pays no heed to China data release.
China imported 100 million tonnes of iron ore in January, compared to 84.3 million tonnes in December, customs data show. Arrivals were 94.54 million tonnes in November.

However, the Aussie dollar is not impressed. As of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7825 – levels seen before the release of China trade data. Iron ore along with copper is one of Australia’s top exports.

A drop in China’s overall trade surplus could be keeping the AUD bulls at bay. Also worth noting is the slight decline in China’s copper imports. The world’s largest consumer of commodities imported 440,000 tonnes of unwrought copper in January, compared to 450,000 tonnes in December.

Looking ahead – the pair could be influenced by the action in the AU-US 10-year bond yield spread. The Aussie dollar could drop below 0.78 if the spread turns negative inversion) and equities see sharp losses.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-not-impressed-rise-chinas-iron-ore-imports/

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GBP/USD – FOCUS ON UK MANUFACTURING AND TRADE DATA


BOE’s hawkish tilt favors upside Pound.
Cable could revisit 1.4067 on better-than-expected UK data.
Bank of England’s hawkish tilt pushed the GBP/USD higher to 1.4067 yesterday, however, the risk aversion played a spoilsport and cable fell back to 1.3920.

That said, the British Pound could still put on a stellar performance if the UK data due today betters estimates and the global equity markets regain poise.

The UK manufacturing production is seen rising 0.3 percent m/m in December vs. 0.4 percent in November, while the industrial production is expected to have dropped 0.9 percent m/m. Further, the UK Office for National Statistics will likely report a small drop in the December trade deficit.

Yesterday, the BOE suggested the interest rates could be raised faster than previously indicated. An upbeat UK data would boost expectations of faster rate hikes (as suggested by the BOE) and push GBP/USD back to 1.4067 (previous day’s high).

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-focus-uk-manufacturing-trade-data/

[xtreamforex.com]

GBP/USD POISED TO CONTINUE BULL-RUN AFTER DECLINING INTO LONG-TERM SUPPORT


GBP/USD may be poised to continue pushing higher following a couple of weeks of declines. Sterling is currently trading up softly on thin markets to kick off the new weeks, treading into the 1.3840 region ahead of European markets.

Sterling has suffered at the hands of market sentiment as of late, with pullbacks in equities and spikes in bond yields to multi-year highs sending traders head-first into safe havens at the expense of risk assets such as the British Pound.

Despite recent selling pressure on the Queen’s currency, fundamentals are beginning to look good for the UK, with Prime Minister Theresa May experiencing a bump in polling along with Brexit fears seeming to tame somewhat, even as the British Parliament and leaders within the EU continue to trade barbs back and forth. The Bank of England (BoE) is also upbeat, with a positive outlook on the UK’s economy as economic growth begins to build on itself, causing the BoE to begin hinting at interest rates in the near future.

The Kingdom has a slew of economic data on the docket for Tuesday this week, most notably being CPI data for January at 09:30 GMT. A positive uptick here will only further cement the BoE on a path towards interest rates, with some market forecasts already calling for a May rate increase.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-poised-continue-bull-run-declining-long-term-support-2/

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GBP/JPY LACKING DIRECTION, UK CPI DATA ON THE DOCKET FOR TODAY


GBP/JPY indecisive in Tokyo trading.
UK CPI data due at 09:30 GMT today.
GBP/JPY is stepping lightly in Asia markets, fidgeting around 150.42 following a flat Monday.

The pair has had a rough go of things lately, closing lower or flat for six of the last seven trading days. With the threat of interest rate increases looming on the horizon, traders have been flighty and prone to fits of risk aversion, dumping equities and risk assets in order to pile into safe havens. With the UK showing steady upticks in economic growth and the Bank of England (BoE) preparing to begin tightening their monetary policy, the era of easy money for global markets is set to end, leaving risk appetite in a precarious position.

The UK will be dropping their CPI data today at 09:30 GMT; a slight contraction in price growth is anticipated by market forecasts, with analysts calling for a 2.9% reading compared to the previous 3.0%.

Adding to the pair’s woes is the Yen’s relentless strength recently; as the Yen continues to be the market’s safe haven of choice, despite relentless soothing from figures at the Bank of Japan, reminding markets that the BoJ is not inclined to begin raising reates anytime soon in an attempt to keep the Yen weighted down while Japan’s economy struggles to continue adding to its inflation numbers.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-jpy-lacking-direction-uk-cpi-data-docket-today/

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Tracks Nikkei 225, DXY lower.
Profit-taking ahead of the US CPI?
The bears regained control after a brief recovery seen in the USD/JPY pair, now pushing the rates southwards in a bid to print the lowest levels since November 2016.

USD/JPY headed to 107.00

The spot is seen replicating the moves witnessed in Asia a day before, as risk-aversion seeps back into markets, with the Asian equities crumbling again alongside oil prices. Japan’s benchmark index, the Nikkei 225 sinks nearly 0.90% to 21,053 points while Treasury yields dive across the curve, in turn adding to the downslide.

The major also faces a double whammy from broad-based US dollar weakness, as the buck tracks Treasury yields lower amid a sense of caution ahead of the key US CPI figures, which are likely to shape up the Fed’s rate hike outlook this year.

Meanwhile, the JPY markets appear to have shrugged off the disappointment in the details of the Japanese Q4 GDP report, which showed that the preliminary Q4 GDP arrived at 0.1% q/q vs. 0.2% expected.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-drops-tandem-nikkei-weakest-since-nov-2016/

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USD/JPY – ASO’S COMMENTS KILL THE TECHNICAL RECOVERY


Yen regains bid after Aso talks down need for FX intervention.
USD/JPY drops 30 pips from 106.89.
The technical recovery in the USD/JPY pair fell apart at 106.89 as the Japanese Yen picked up a bid after Japanese Finance Minister Aso played down the need for FX intervention.

Speculation has been gathering pace that Yen appreciation may not go down well with the authorities in Tokyo. However, Aso’s comments indicate the policymakers are comfortable with the recent appreciation of the Japanese Yen.

So, for the time being, the JPY bulls have little reason to fear. That said, the technical charts show oversold conditions. The daily RSI has hit the oversold territory. Further, risk reversals have diverged from the spot, indicating a drop in the premium claimed by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts (bearish bets).

Also, the 10-year treasury yield continues to rise and more importantly the US stock market has remained resilient. Hence, caution is the name of the game for the JPY bulls.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-asos-comments-kill-technical-recovery/

[xtreamforex.com]

AUD/USD BIDDING HIGHER IN ASIA TRADING, PUSHING INTO 0.7955


AUD/USD up on USD selling in Tokyo.
RBA Gov Lowe doesn’t see a rate increase any time soon.
AUD/USD is continuing to climb on thin trading volumes, testing into 0.7955 as of writing.

The pair experienced a choppy Thursday following Wednesday’s Greenback plunge as inflation within the US economy begins to heat up, with month-over-month CPI data beating both previous the previous reading and median market forecasts. The Aussie’s growth in recent days, closing higher against the US Dollar in four of the last five consecutive trading days, owes itself largely to the broad-market selling of the USD rather than any internalities from Australia.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor, Philip Lowe, appeared before parliament’s Standing Committee on Economics where he reiterated the RBA’s holding pattern in the face of sluggish economic growth and mixed data. With inflation struggling to make a decisive appearance, the RBA has no choice but to hold steady on their monetary easing policies, even as major global competitors are racing to begin tightening their belts and raise interest rates.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-bidding-higher-asia-trading-pushing-0-7955/

[xtreamforex.com]

USD/JPY – STUCK IN A 40-PIPS RANGE

Stuck in 106.00-106.40 range.
Risk reversals retrace JPY call bias.
USD/JPY has been restricted to a narrow range of 106.00-106.40 since Friday’s late NY trading and the risk reversals indicate the range could be breached on the higher side.

As of writing, the spot is trading at 106.23, having clocked a high of 106.37 and a low of 106.10. The pair hit a low of 105.55 on Friday before moving back above 106.00 on chart factors (oversold conditions). Also, the options market indicates the premium held by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts has dropped over the last few days.

The one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at JPY 2.025 calls vs. JPY 2.425 calls on Feb. 12. Also, weekly risk reversals are being paid at JPY 1.53 calls vs. JPY 2.50 calls. The decline in demand for JPY calls (as highlighted by the drop in premium) could be an indication the investors are expecting a corrective rally in the USD/JPY spot.

So, the 40-pip trading range could end with an upside break. That said, the fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China could keep Yen losses under the check.

[xtreamforex.com]

AUD/USD FALLS BACK DOWN FOLLOWING CONSTRUCTION DATA DISAPPOINTMENT

AUD/USD retreats on construction miss.
USD getting a push from bond yields.
AUD/USD has dropped lower again following a pick up in early Tokyo trading, and the pair is currently back down below 0.7880.

The Aussie slipped against the Greenback after a disappointment in the Construction Work Done figures for the 4th quarter of 2017, coming in at a 19.4 contraction, widely missing the median market forecast of a 10% decline, and a deep correction from the previous reading of 16.6%. While Wage Price Index data posted a mild beat over forecasts with year-on-year posting 2.1% versus the anticipated 2%, mixed economic data points for Australia continues to pigeonhole the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in wait-and-see mode. Headline growth figures for Australia continue to lag behind global trends, and the RBA is left in a holding pattern, unlikely to raise key rates into 2020 while central banks around the world prepare to begin tightening their respective easy fiscal policies and prepare to fight inflation.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-usd-falls-back-following-construction-data-disappointment/

[xtreamforex.com]

NZD/USD CLAIMS THE 0.73 HANDLE IN TOKYO

The Kiwi breaking upwards in early trading.
Little data for the Kiwi leaves the door open for knock-on volatility.
The NZD/USD is trading up in the Tokyo markets, breaking passed the 0.7300 handle as of writing.

With the NZD slated for a light showing data-wise this week, the NZD/USD’s focus will be driven largely by market sentiment, with the Kiwi currently spiking thanks to knock-on Yen buying to mark the beginning of the week.

Key economic data points for New Zealand were recently revised upwards, but weak points remain within the Kiwi’s economy, and with growth lagging behind global trends, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to stand pat on rates well into 2020.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-claims-0-73-handle-tokyo/

[xtreamforex.com]

USD/JPY FLIRTS WITH 107.00 HANDLE, RISK REVERSALS SHED JPY CALL BIAS

Risk reversals show demand for JPY calls (bullish bets) is falling.
Eyes Powell testimony
The USD/JPY pair’s recovery from 106.38 yesterday has left a higher low on the daily chart, indicating a short-term bottom has been made at 105.55 (Feb. 16 low).

Further, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) gauge indicates falling demand for JPY calls (buy Yen). As of writing, the risk reversals are being paid at 1.4 JPY calls vs. 2.4 JPY calls seen on Feb. 12. The drop in the JPY volatility premium (from 2.4 to 1.4) indicates JPY bullish bias has weakened.

The technical setup and the activity in the options market clearly indicate the investors believe the new Fed chair Jerome Powell will remain measured in his first testimony (due later today).

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-flirts-107-00-handle-risk-reversals-shed-jpy-call-bias/

[xtreamforex.com]

AUD/JPY STUMBLES TO 83.50 ON CHINA PMI MISS

The AUD/JPY is dumping on China PMI miss.
Bearish pressure continuing to mount on pair as Aussie loses grip.
The Aussie has fallen against the Yen, giving up the overnight session’s gains and the pair is now trading near the 83.50 handle and still moving jumpy.

A wide miss for Chinese PMI data has sent the Aussie tumbling in Asia markets; Manufacturing and Services PMIs both failed to match up with analyst expectations, and the market saw Manufacturing PMI come in at 50.3 versus the previous 51.3 and Services PMI drop to 54.4 following the previously reported figure of 55.3. The sudden decline in Manufacturing PMI sees the indicator barely holding onto positive territory, which doesn’t bode well for Australia’s largest trading partner, and traders have responded to the weakness by dumping the Aussie.

Australia doesn’t need the help from China right now, as economic data for the island country continues to middle in the face of unsustainable levels of household debt and restrained wage growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is stuck in a holding pattern on interest rates, awaiting any signs of improving economic growth, and the RBA has had to leave the door open for the possibility of future easing if things don’t begin to improve.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-stumbles-83-50-china-pmi-miss/

[xtreamforex.com]

NZD/USD RE-ATTEMPTS 0.7200 POST-UPBEAT CHINA PMI


Weighed by rising DXY, at five-week tops.
Losses capped by upbeat Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI?
Focus shifts to US data and Powell’s testimony.
The NZD/USD pair extended its bearish momentum for the third straight session and went to hit fresh three-week lows at 0.7187 levels amid strengthening demand for the US dollar across the board.

NZD/USD: Supported well above 200-DMA at 0.7167

The spot is seen making minor recovery attempts and looks to regain the 0.72 handle, as the bulls were offered some respite from the unexpected improvement seen in the Chinese manufacturing sector activity, as reported by Caixin earlier today.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI surprises positively in Feb

However, it remains to be seen if the major can sustain the recovery mode, as risk-off sentiment seen across the Asian markets continue to weigh negatively on the higher-yielding currency, the NZD. Meanwhile, the Kiwi tracks the declines in its OZ neighbor, the Aussie, after the Aus capex data disappointing markets.

From a broader perspective, the divergent monetary policy outlooks continue to remain in the favor of the greenback, given the recent hawkish surprise delivered by the new Fed Chair Powell while the RBNZ is expected to remain on hold in the coming months, despite reasonable NZ fundamentals.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-re-attempts-0-7200-post-upbeat-china-pmi/

[xtreamforex.com]

AUD/JPY IS MILDLY BID, BUT COULD REGISTER A 6TH STRAIGHT WEEKLY LOSS


The oversold AUD/JPY is witnessing a minor relief rally in Asia.
Growing trade war concerns and risk aversion in stocks favor the downside in the pair.
The pair is on track for the sixth straight weekly loss.
AUD/JPY, the regional risk barometer, is mildly bid in Asia despite the growing fears of a full-blown global trade war and risk aversion in equities.

As of writing, the cross is trading at 82.46 – up 0.40 percent from the overnight low of 82.16. The minor recovery could be associated with oversold conditions showed by the daily relative strength index (RSI).

Still, the pair look set to end lower for the sixth straight week, given it is trading at least 120 pips below the last week’s close of 83.75. Moreover, a 120 pip rally is easier said than done as Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, escalating tensions with China and other trading partners and rising prospects of higher inflation could keep the equities under pressure.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-mildly-bid-register-6th-straight-weekly-loss/

[xtreamforex.com]

NZD/USD SAGS AS CAIXIN PMI SLIPS, NZ TREASURY HIGHLIGHTS SPARE CAPACITY

The Kiwi is weakening on softer Asia data.
A thin macro schedule for the week heading into NFP Friday.
The Kiwi is subdued in Monday trading, testing closer to Friday’s low of 0.7218.

The NZD/USD pair heads into the new week fighting the slide, with the Chinese Caixin Services PMI slipping to 54.2, missing the forecast 54.3 after the previous period’s 54.7.

Adding to the Kiwi’s woes is the New Zealand Treasury’s Monthly Economic Indicators (MEI); while the data is mainly positive, several caveats were underlined that hamper any real breakout potential for the NZD/USD pair. The Treasury noted that despite unemployment continuing to drop (down to 4.5% in December) and consumption spending ticking upwards, under-employment remains stable and wage growth remains restrained, highlighting the spare capacity still running through the New Zealand economy.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-sags-caixin-pmi-slips-nz-treasury-highlights-spare-capacity/

[xtreamforex.com]

GBP/USD INCHING TOWARDS 1.39, BOE’S HALDANE TO SET THE TONE LATER


The Sterling is still trying to correct a slowly-sinking ship.
The BOE’s Haldane to speak later today; a bullish tone is expected.
The GBP/USD pair is middling ahead of the London markets, reaching an overnight session high of 1.3862 before giving up Asia’s gains to trade back near 1.3845.

The Sterling has drifted lower against the US Dollar for most of February, and the GBP is geared up to put an end to that with the pair bouncing upwards recently after digging in its heels from the swing low of 1.3712 on March 1st. Sterling data is spread thin today, featuring a low-tier 30-year bond auction taking place and a potentially market-moving speech from the Bank of England’s (BOE) Chief Economist, Andy Haldane. Haldane will be speaking at the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures, and Commerce beginning at 18:15 GMT, and although it’s highly unlikely that Haldane will be providing anything new in the way of forward guidance for Sterling traders, a hawkish tone and upbeat outlook from the Monetary Policy Committee member will give the Sterling the boost it needs to start climbing back up the charts.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-inching-towards-1-39-boes-haldane-set-tone-later/

[xtreamforex.com]

NZD/USD – RESILIENT TO RISK-OFF IN EARLY ASIA, YIELD DIFFERENTIAL RISES IN NZD-POSTIVE MANNER


Kiwi stuck in a 25-pip range of 0.73-0.7775 in Asia, despite risk-off.
10Y NZ-US yield spread rises in the NZD-positive manner.
Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn’s resignation boosted trade war fears and weighed over risk assets in early Asia. The S&P 500 futures fell almost 1.5 percent and the Japanese Yen rose across the board.

Also, the dairy product prices fell at the GlobalDairyTrade auction, with whole milk powder declining amid an increase in supply.

Still, the NZD remained relatively resilient, possibly due to favorable yield spread. The 10-year NZ-US yield spread rose to 16 basis points (bps) yesterday from 10 basis points. As of writing, the spread stands at 18 basis points, while the Kiwi is trading marginally weak at 0.7285.

The currency pair rose from 0.7221 to 0.7311 yesterday after news hit the wires that North Korea is willing to hold talks with the US over its nuclear weapons programme.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-resilient-risk-off-early-asia-yield-differential-rises-nzd-postive-manner/

[xtreamforex.com]

USD/JPY SEES LITTLE ACTION AFTER BOJ MAINTAINED STATUS QUO


BOJ kept rates unchanged as expected.
Upgraded assessment of overseas economies
USD/JPY sees little action, remains bid on fading N.Korea risks.
Focus of Kuroda speech.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept the interest unchanged as expected, stuck to its upbeat view on the economy and upgraded the assessment of overseas economies. Also, the central bank kept yield curve control target at zero percent. As per Reuters report, “the decision was made by an 8-1 vote with board member Goushi Kataoka dissenting on the view that the BOJ should speed up bond buying to further push down longer-term yields.”

However. the USD/JPY is not impressed. The pair continues to trade at 106.70 – the level seen before the BOJ rate decision. As of writing, the upside is likely being capped due to BOJ’s weak comments on housing investment.

The spot hit a high of 106.94 earlier today as fading North Korea risks triggered much-awaited correction in the overbought Japanese Yen.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-sees-little-action-boj-maintained-status-quo/

[xtreamforex.com]

Bitcoin Cash managed to close out Monday in positive territory, gaining 3.37% to end the day at $662.9, partially reversing Sunday’s 5.98% slide, while bringing to an end 7 consecutive days of losses.

The day was relatively less choppy than in recent weeks, with Bitcoin Cash seeing few sell-offs during the day and more importantly avoided an end of day pullback.

While there will have been some relief from Monday’s gains, Bitcoin Cash failed to touch $700 levels for the first time since the December rally, with an intraday high $686.2 falling short of the day’s first major resistance level of $688.2 and 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $730.27.

Monday’s gains were certainly not impressive enough to suggest a reversal to the extended bearish trend formed back on 21st March, while an intraday low $636.4 managed to avoid testing the first major support level of $608.4.

Following Monday’s gains, Bitcoin Cash was up 3.58% to $683.9, with investors brushing off an early morning $657 low, as sentiment across the cryptomarket continued to improve off the back of Monday’s gains.

A morning $695 high tested the day’s first major resistance level of $687.27 early, with resistance at the psychological $700 level pinning back any move through to the day’s 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $730.27.

For the day ahead, a move back through to the morning high $695 would be needed to support a run at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, with such a move likely to begin signalling a short-term bullish trend formation that would draw in side lined investors looking to ride out the bearish trend formed on 21st March.

Failure to break through to $700 levels could test investor appetite later in the day and lead to a pullback to this morning’s lows, though we would expect support levels to remain untested today, the key milestone for Bitcoin Cash being to move through to and hold on to $700 levels by the end of the day.

Click Here To Read LITECOIN AND RIPPLE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-forecast/bitcoin-cash-litecoin-ripple-daily-analysis-03-04-18/)

[xtreamforex.com]

The prices have stalled near the $7400 region as expected
The BTC prices have rebounded as expected but they now seem to have hit a wall and again, this is something that we have been forecasting. The region around $7400 was a strong support and the break through this region had led the prices to slide towards the lows of the range below $7000. Now the prices are back in this region but have been finding it difficult to get a way through this region due to the strong selling that we have been seeing. The prices are likely to continue to face some strong resistance for the time being and this is going to be the biggest challenge for the bulls in the short term.

Prices Stall
The bulls need to show purpose and momentum and prove to the rest of the market that the momentum is on their side for them to get convinced and join them. Else, it is likely that the BTC market would be hit with a lot of selling in the short term which would then push the prices lower. If and when the bulls do manage to break through, more traders are likely to join their side and this snowballing effect would help to make the passage to the $7800 region smooth and quick as well. It remains to be seen whether they would be able to make the breakthrough today.

Read More Technical Analysis: Click Here (http://www.xtreamforex.com/)

[xtreamforex.com]

The pair gathered extra traction on increasing USD-selling.
USD plummets to fresh lows in the 90.20 region tracked by DXY.
Rising US-China concerns revived the risk-off trade, hurting the buck.
EUR/USD has found fresh buying interest and is now flirting with daily highs in the 1.2270/80 band.




EUR/USD bid on risk aversion

The selling pressure around the greenback is now intensifying after President Trump’s Advisor L.Kudlow stressed there is no timetable regarding US-China tarde negotiations, adding at the same time that the Chinese reaction to US measures has been so far unsatisfactory.

Kudlow’s comments triggered a bout of risk aversion that accelerated the inflows into the safe haven assets, particularly the Japanese Yen, motivating a quick drop in USD/JPY with the resulting USD sell off.

In addition, recent Non-farm payrolls seem to have given extra oxygen to the view of a more gradual interest rate path by the Federal Reserve in the next months (at least not as aggressive as previously estimated by market participants), all weighing down on the buck.

Despite the ongoing squeeze higher, spot keeps the bearish note intact this week, retreating for the second week in a row to levels last seen in late February. The down move motivates once again the 1.2200 handle and the 1.2165/55 band to emerge on the investors’ horizon.


EUR/USD levels to consider

At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.20% at 1.2266 and a break above 1.2312 (10-day sma) would target 1.22346 (high Apr.2) en route to 1.2478 (high Mar.27). On the other hand, immediate support aligns at 1.2216 (low Apr.6) seconded by 1.2206 (low Feb.9) and then 1.2165 (low Jan.18).

[xtreamforex.com]

• The Aussie is struggling to maintain bullish momentum as risk appetite sours and Aussie data falters.
• The macro calendar is clear for the Aussie for the rest of the week and market sentiment is getting dragged down by the ongoing Syrian crisis.

The AUD/USD is tripping back into the 0.7750 zone after the Aussie lifted into 0.7770 in the overnight session to challenge yesterday’s highs, but the move has been hobbled and the AUD/USD is backing away from the high on disappointing macro figures.
Further reading – Australia inflationary expectations fell slightly in April
Australia inflation expectations declined slightly to 3.6 percent from the previous 3.7 percent today, and after that Investment Lending for Homes only lifted by 0.5 percent, a decline from the previous 1.1 percent. Home Loans data beat the expected -0.6 percent forecast to print at -0.2 percent. The figure is an improvement over the previous reading of -1.1 percent, but still a declining number.
The Aussie has rallied lately after China appeared willing to meet the US at the negotiation table based on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s words at the Boao Forum, but the market risk appetite is evaporating as Middle East tensions over Syria threaten to spill over in the UN.

AUD/USD Levels to watch
The pair is going to start challenging support if the decline continues, and as FXStreet’s own Flavio Tosti noted earlier, “the AUD/USD has rebounded from its 200-period simple moving average and is currently trading in the 0.7740-0.7773 range. Support lies at 0.7728, previous swing and at 0.7691 demand level. Resistance is seen at 0.7770 which is the high made on Tuesday and further up at 0.7845 swing low on March 13.”

Read More: Online Forex Trading - True ECN Broker | XtreamForex (http://www.xtreamforex.com/)

[xtreamforex.com]

GBP/USD PINNED TO 1.33 ON FRESH BREXIT CONCERNS, TECHNICAL CORRECTION ALREADY RUNNING OUT OF STEAM
The GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3300 major handle ahead of Tuesday’s London session after declining in Monday’s action.

The Sterling knocked lower on Monday after the UK Construction PMI for May came in unchanged, piling on in a week that has already seen Brexit concerns swing back to the forefront, with little resolution seen on the current Ireland border issues, post-Brexit trade conditions, and a Brexit withdrawal bill due in the House of Commons on June 12th. The GBP has managed to hit the brakes on the decline, and has steadied out near the 1.3300 major level after clocking in a daily high just beneath 1.3400 in Monday’s trading.

Tuesday brings the UK’s Markit Services PMI for May, expected at 53.0 compared to the previous reading of 52.8. The BRC Like-For-Like Retails Sales indicator dropped some positive figures in the late Monday session, printing at 2.8% compared to the expected 0.8% drawdown and the previous contraction of -4.2%.

GBP/USD levels to watch

FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik on the Sterling’s technical stanceheading into Tuesday’s London markets: “the GBP/USD pair 4 hours’ chart presents a neutral stance heading into the Asian session, as the pair is now struggling around a flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators have pulled back from near overbought readings, the Momentum now heading nowhere around its 100 level, but the RSI maintaining the downward slope at 46, leaning the scale toward the downside for the upcoming sessions.”

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EUR/USD PRICE FORECAST – EURO LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE
The pair has been trying to form a base over the last couple of days.
The EURUSD pair has been trying to form a base over the last couple of days as the hit that it had taken due to the hawkish stance of the ECB with regard to the tapering and ending of the QE seems to continue to have a large impact on the markets over the last few days. This is expected to continue in the short term though we believe that the region around 1.15 should offer some decent support for now.

EUR/USD Finds Support
The region around 1.15 is not only a region where there is a lot of buying, it is also a round figure and hence likely to attract a lot of buying. We have also seen that this region has been the target of many of the bears over the last few weeks and hence the achievement of this target, with ample help from the ECB, should help the bears take profit and this should alleviate the selling for now.
We believe that the pair would continue to consolidate and range between the 1.15 and the 1.18 regions for the short term as we watch the ECB very closely on its moves over the next few weeks with regard to the tapering. The ending of the QE has been pushed still far ahead and this should lead to ample supply of euros in the market and though this is likely to help the stock markets, this is not good news for the euro and that is why we have seen the large fall.

We are also likely to see the Fed continue its hawkish stance with regard to the rate hikes and this is only going to add even more pressure on the euro in the coming months as the Fed decides to hike a couple of more times in the rest of the year. Looking ahead to the day, we expect the consolidation to continue with it being the first day of the week.
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Bitcoin and ethereum price forecast btc prices in range
The prices have been in a tight range and consolidating.
There hasn’t been much happening in the crypto markets over the weekend which is something unusual for a market that has been used to a lot of volatility as compared to the other ones. We have been seeing the $6600 region acting as the resistance overhead and this is something that we have been pointing out over the last few days.It is expected that thi consolidation and ranging would continue for the short term as well. There hasn’t been much happening by way of fundamentals or economic data and this is also one of the reasons for the slow moves that we have been seeing in the markets over the last few days.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES ABOVE $6600

The prices have moved higher and likely to remain buoyant.

The BTC prices received a boost over the last 24 hours and now we see the prices peeking above the $6600 region as of this writing. This is likely to keep the demand for BTC high as more and more traders and investors are likely to be enticed into the market in the hope of the next bull run happening in due course of time. We expect a lot of selling to happen in this region and so it would be better to wait and see the price action before jumping into the trades. So far, the moves have been quiet and steady and there have not been any major signs of a breakout as yet and hence it is important that the price action is closely watched.

BTC Prices Buoyant
Much of the move has happened over the last few hours which shows that the demand from Asia, especially from countries like South Korea and Japan have been high over the last few hours. There have not been any major fundamentals to rock the markets are yet except for the news that the South Korean authorities are likely to go slow on regularisation as they do not want to give credence and legality to the cryptos just as yet. It is clear that as more and more countries begin to regulate the crypto markets, it would only mean that more and more legitimate investors and traders are likely to enter the markets in due course of time.
The ETH market has also received a boost from the overall bullish nature of the crypto markets over the last 24 hours and it now trades comfortably above the $500 region as of this writing after spending a lot of time at the lows of the range near $450. It is expected to remain buoyant in the short term.

Forecast
The moves over the last few days have shown that there is a lot of buying support in the region around $6300 for the BTC market and this is likely to keep the prices well supported for today. The traders would be watching the price action very closely for more clues on the resumption of the bull trend.
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The USD/JPY fell to an eight-day low of 109.85 in Asia, possibly due to fast-moving US-China trade war and the signs of risk aversion in the financial markets.

The JPY picked up a strong bid in early Asia, pushing the USD/JPY below its 200-day MA of 110.22 after Trump asked US Treasury asked the US Treasury to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent.

On Friday, the US announced tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. In response, China slapped a 25 percent tariff on 545 American imports.

Clearly, world’s two-biggest economies appear increasingly headed towards a long, griding trade war.

Hence, the risk assets are under pressure. For instance, the S&P 500 futures are down 0.76 percent. Consequently, the anti-risk JPY is on the offensive.

As of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 108.90 and looks set to extend losses further.
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AUD/USD CLOCKS SESSION HIGH AS RBA MINUTES SOUND MORE UPBEAT ON GROWTH

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) June meeting minutes sounded more upbeat on growth, pushing the AUD/USD to a session high of 0.7427.

The minutes said, “the recent data is consistent with forecast acceleration in GDP growth to above 3 percent”, but warned that protectionist policies, political uncertainty in Italy and EM instability are a downside risk to the global outlook.

As of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7417. The upside is likely being capped by the fact that despite upbeat take on the economy, the policymakers are in no hurry to hike rates. Meanwhile, the Fed signaled faster rate hikes last week.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Resistance: 0.7443 (50-hour moving average), 0.7468 (5-day moving average), 0.7540 (10-day moving average).

Support: 0.7412 (May 9 low), 0.7394 (session low), (0.7328 (May 2016 low).
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USD/JPY BACK IN PLAY NEAR 110.00 AFTER RECOVERING FROM TUESDAY’S DIP

The USD/JPY is trading close to the 110.00 handle in early Wednesday action following Tuesday’s drop-and-bounce as broader markets roiled following a notable ramp-up in the trade war rhetoric between the US and China.

Another round of tariffs from the US targeting $200 billion more in Chinese goods is expected to make its way into headlines soon, pending a write up by the US Treasury Department, and market risk appetite evaporated yesterday as traders balk at the prospect of US President Donald Trump bringing a trade war one step closer.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released their latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and little of note came out of the report, with the BoJ noting that it is currently “appropriate” for the central bank to abandon their timeframe for achieving their inflation target of 2%, a goal that has remained far out of reach for the Japanese economy despite record-setting easy monetary policy.

The rest of the week has little of consequence for the Yen, until National CPI figures late Thursday at 23:30 GMT, though the effect will be muted as Tokyo CPI, which releases several weeks earlier, is an accurate bellwether of inflation within Japan.

USD/JPY levels to watch

As noted by FXStreet’s own Valeria Bednarik, “technically, the pair has broken below a key Fibonacci level, the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily slump at 110.15, now the immediate resistance, but holds above the 50% retracement of the same decline. In the 4 hours chart, the price is battling to regain ground above its 100 and 200 SMA, both converging a few pips below the current level, while technical indicators have bounced modestly from oversold readings, but present limited upward strength, suggesting that bulls are losing the grip. The immediate support is the daily low at 109.54, followed by 109.19, the low set last week. Below this last, bulls will probably give up and the pair could enter sell-off mode.”

Support levels: 109.55 109.20 108.70

Resistance levels: 110.15 110.45 110.80
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USD/CAD TRADES NEAR YEARLY HIGHS ABOVE MID-1.32S AS WTI STAYS BELOW $65

Earlier today, boosted by a combination of a weaker loonie and a stronger greenback, the USD/CAD pair reached its highest level in a year at 1.3290. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3265, adding 0.5% on the day.

Ahead of the critical OPEC summit in Vienna at the end of this week, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate dropped below the $65 mark. Commenting on expectations from the OPEC meeting, Kuwait’s oil minister said that there were no specific scenarios for raising or lowering the production ceiling and added that they will be discussing production levels rather than price. At the moment, the barrel of WTI is losing a little over $1, or 1.6%, on the day at $64.65.

In the meantime, the greenback continues to outperform its rivals as the quiet macroeconomic calendar allows investors to price the diverging monetary policies between the Fed and the rest of the major central banks. Nonetheless, the US Dollar Index encountered a resistance just ahead of the 95 mark earlier in the session and has been moving sideways since. Near 94.70, the DXY stays on track to end the day more than 0.3% higher.

Technical outlook

The RSI indicator on the daily chart stays above the 70 mark, suggesting that the pair may need to make a technical correction before extending higher. On the upside, resistances could be seen at 1.3290 (daily high), 1.3340 (Jun. 21, 2017, high) and 1.3400 (psychological level). On the downside, supports align at 1.3200 (daily low/psychological level), 1.3115 (Jun. 15 low) and 1.3020 (20-DMA).
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AUD/USD SWINGS HIGHER TO 0.7380 ON AUSSIE TAX CUTS HOPES
The AUD/USD pair staged a sharp V-shaped reversal last hour, bouncing-off two-day lows of 0.7356 in a bid to take-out the 0.7398/40 resistances amid risk-on market profile and expectations of the Australian tax cuts.

AUD/USD: A Doji on daily sticks

The Aussie paused its five-day losing streak and rebounded this Thursday, now forming a Doji candle on the daily sticks, which suggests indecision heading into the Australian parliament’s approval of the proposed tax cuts in the Budget this year.

However, the sentiment around the spot remains supported by the risk-on rally in the Asian equities, especially with the Australian ASX 200 index rallying +1.20%. More so, the USD bulls continue to run into resistance near 95.20 levels, adding to the positive tone around the Aussie.

All eyes remain on the Aussie tax cuts approval for fresh direction on the pair ahead of the US datasets due later in the NA session.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

Resistance 1: 0.7382 (daily pivot), Resistance 2: 0.7398/0.7400 (5-DMA/ round number), Resistance 3 0.7468 (10-DMA).

Support1: 0.7347 (2018 lows), Support2: 0.7312 (classic S3), Support 3: 0.7250 (psychological levels).
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GBP/USD STRUGGLING TO LIFT AWAY FROM 1.3150 AHEAD OF BOE RATE CALL FOR THURSDAY

The GBP/USD is continuing to slump in Wednesday’s lows near 1.3150 as the US Dollar gets supported by rebounded US Treasury yields.

Thursday’s big event is the Bank of England’s (BoE) rate call, due at 11:00 GMT, and the central bank is widely expected to remain on hold on rates.

The BoE was knocked off their hawkish stance recently as a slump in economic figures for the UK’s economy that was expected in the first quarter threatens to slip into the second half of the year.

Market hopes for a rate hike to come in the third quarter have begun to evaporate lately, but as analysts at TD Securities noted, “We expect the MPC to keep policy on hold and shy away from comments about market expectations of future rate hikes. But in reaffirming its view that the 2018 Q1 growth slowdown was temporary, markets might interpret that as a signal that an August hike is more likely.”

GBP/USD levels to watch

Bearish pressure remains high on the Sterling heading into Thursday’s London market session, and as FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik pointed out, “as in the 4 hours chart, the pair retreated after testing a strongly bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators remain within negative levels, the Momentum having already lost upward strength and the RSI at 40. The pair set a fresh 2018 low at the beginning of the day at 1.3146, with a downward acceleration through the level opening doors for a steeper slide toward the 1.3000 figure.”

Support levels: 1.3145 1.3110 1.3070

Resistance levels: 1.3215 1.3250 1.3280
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STELLAR’S LUMEN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – BACK IN THE BEAR TRAP
It’s back in the red for Stellar’s Lumen and the broader market, with a failure to recover through the day raising the prospects of sub-$0.20 levels before any rebound in the coming weeks.
Key Highlights
Stellar’s Lumen gained 1.09% on Tuesday, following Monday’s 1.83% rise, to end the day at $0.23412.
A morning pullback to an intraday low $0.22986 saw Stellar’s Lumen hold well above the day’s first major support level at $0.2212.
An afternoon rally saw Stellar’s Lumen move through to an intraday high $0.24236 to test the first major resistance level at $0.2431 before easing back to $0.23 levels by the day’s end.
In spite of the gains, Stellar’s Lumen continued to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.2648, supporting the extended bearish trend.
Stellar’s Lumen Price Support
Stellar’s Lumen gained 1.09% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 1.83% rise, to end the day at $0.23412.

Following the broader market, Stellar’s Lumen fell to an intraday low $0.22986 in the early part of the day, the morning’s low holding well above the first major support at $0.2212.

A late morning recovery saw Stellar’s Lumen rally through to an intraday high $0.24236 to test the day’s first major resistance level at $0.2431 before pulling back to sub-$0.23 levels by the day’s end, the failure to break through the first major resistance level to take a run at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.2648 continuing to support the extended bearish trend formed at late April’s swing hi $0.46547.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down 2.82% to $0.22772, with Stellar’s Lumen pulling back from a start of the day $0.23657 high to a morning $0.22206 low, in what’s been a relatively choppy start to the day, Stellar’s Lumen falling through the first major support level at $0.2285 and second major support level of $0.2229 before a partial recovery through the morning.

For the day ahead, a move through to $0.2354 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $0.2410, though with the broader market sitting deep in the red at the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen will likely struggle to break through to $0.24 levels through the day, the early pullback to sub-$0.23 levels continuing to point to a possible near-term sub-$0.20 low before any meaningful recovery.

Failure to break back through to $0.23 levels would likely see Stellar’s Lumen take a bigger hit later in the day, with the second major support level at $0.2229 in back in play through the afternoon before any recovery.
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MARKET MORNING BRIEFING: POUND SAW A HIGH NEAR 1.3315 ON FRIDAY
STOCKS

Dow (24580.89, +0.49%) could get some decent support near 24250 but overall there could be chances of a fall towards 24000 in the medium term. Near to medium term looks bearish towards 24000 with some short corrective upmoves.

12700 is the earlier support turned resistance and could hold in the near term keeping Dax (12579.72, +0.54%) in the 12400-12700 region for some time. Some ranged and stable movement is possible in the next few sessions.

Although Nikkei (22409.10, -0.48%) got some support at 22000, the resistance near 22800 seems to be holding well and is important. While the index trades below 22800, medium term looks bearish with scope of testing 21500 on the weekly candles.

Shanghai (2884.76, -0.17%) could trade sideways in the 2800-2950 region just now. An immediate rise towards 2950 is possible from where the index could come off towards 2800 or lower in the longer run.

Sensex (35689.60, +0.73%) and Nifty (10821.85, +0.75%) are trading in a narrow region of 35250-35750 and 10650-10850 respectively. This could continue for a couple of more sessions, before the indices break on either side of the said range. Till then , medium term direction is unclear.
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AUD/USD TO CONTINUE TO TRADE DEFENSIVELY IN THE WEEK AHEAD – ANZ

Analysts at ANZ are out with their view on the AUD/USD pair for the coming week, as cited in their weekly FX Strategy report.

Key Quotes:

“The data calendar is light, but we’ll keep an eye on auction clearance rates – as weakness in the housing sector is a key downside risk for the AUD

The AUD is likely to remain caught in the cross-fire of US trade policy for now.

We could be less bearish on the outlook if there were strong domestic data to latch onto, but the data flow remains uninspiring from an RBA rate hike perspective, and risks around the housing market may also weigh.

Favorable terms-of-trade have helped so far, but this channel seems to be steadying.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES FALL
The prices have become very volatile over the weekend.
The BTC prices have been very volatile during the weekend as the situation begins to get tense for the bulls who are clearly on the backfoot over this period. The region around $6600 served to be a resistance once again and we have seen the prices fall below the $600 region over the weekend. But what should encourage the bulls for the short term is the fact that the prices have since managed to rebound pretty quickly over the last few hours and it is now back above the $6000 region as of this writing. This shows the amount if buying that is available in the $5800 region which should now serve as strong support for the short term.
BTC Prices Fall Below $6000 Briefly
It has indeed been tough times for the BTC bulls as the prices continue to fall despite the growing size and depth of the market. The incoming regulations and the larger investors seem to have had a negative impact on the prices so far though we continue to believe that this would be the case for the short term and that in the medium term, this would only add value to the market and push the prices higher in a slow and steady manner. But it is important for the weaker traders to hold on and it remains to be seen how long they would be able to do so as the prices continue to remain weak and continue to fall during the short term.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES BUOYANT
The BTC prices continue to remain well supported over the last 24 hours as the price have managed to rebound from below the $6000 region and have been trading above that region during the last 24 hours. It is likely that the prices would continue to trade in a buoyant manner in the short term though the strong selling region at $6600 continues to loom just ahead and this should cap the prices for now. Yesterday, we also saw reports that said that the exchange Bitfinex had released an additional 200 million worth of Tether (USDT) and that was the main news during the short term.

BTC Prices Above $6000
It has to be noted that the last time that such an action of issuing addition tether happened, the BTC prices jumped and this time, the investors and the traders expect a similar kind of action and this could be one of the reasons for the strong rebound in the prices and for the fact that the prices continue to be well bid over the last 24 hours. Of course, there has not been anything official too connect the dots between the USDT issuance and the price hike in BTC but these are the straws that the traders try to hold on to. Also, the fact that this issuance has come about when the BTC prices are below the $6000 region has led to the prospect that there would be some buying of BTC worth the tether that has been issued and this is the fundamentals that the traders are banking upon for their bullish view on the BTC prices in the short term.
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PRICE OF GOLD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY FORECAST – COULD BE UNDERPINNED BY WEAK DOLLAR, FALLING TREASURY YIELDS

Gold is likely to continue to be influenced by the U.S. Dollar this week and its reaction to commodity-linked currencies. Gold could be underpinned if rising crude oil prices drive up the Loonie, Aussie and Kiwi against the Greenback. However, gains could be limited if Treasury yields stabilize or rise.
Gold futures closed at their lowest level since the week-ending December 15 as investors continued to react the strengthening U.S. Dollar and expectations of rising U.S. interest rates. Investors showed almost no reaction to simmering fears of an escalating trade war between the United States and China.

August Comex Gold futures settled at $1270.70, down $7.80 or -0.61%.

While gold was testing a 6-month low, the U.S. Dollar was surging to an 11-month high against a basket of currencies early last week. Dollar investors reacted to geopolitical events such as the escalating tensions over trade between the United States and China, U.S. economic data and weaker Treasury yields due to a mixed performance in U.S. equity markets.

The dollar rose sharply and gold weakened on June 19 after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened more tariffs on China in an escalating trade dispute investors fear could hurt global growth. Trump threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods, prompting a swift warning from Beijing of retaliation.
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MARKET MORNING BRIEFING: GOLD HAS COME OFF INSTEAD OF TRYING TO MOVE UP TOWARDS 1280
STOCKS

Dow (24252.80, -1.33%) and Dax (12270.33, -2.46%) both came off sharply yesterday. Dow may test immediate daily support near 24000 from where a corrective bounce back to 24750-25000 is possible. A break below 24000, if seen could take the index down to 23200 as seen on the 3-day candles.

Dax is likely to test weekly trend support near 12100 which if holds could push the index back to higher levels. A break below 12100, if seen would be vulnerable for a fall towards 11800.

Nikkei (22221.33, -0.52%) seems to be gradually coming down from 22800 levels and looks bearish towards 21800-21400 levels on the 3-day candles. There is enough room on the downside just now and if the 22800 level holds strong, near to medium term is likely to be bearish.

Shanghai (2846.62, -0.44%) opened with a gap down today and has lost immediate hopes of any corrective upmove towards 2950. The current fall seems very sharp and may take the index further down towards 2750.

Sensex (35470.35, -0.61%) and Nifty (10762.45, -0.55%) is likely in the last leg of the narrow range-trade and may break out on either side within the next 2-sessions. A break on either side would determine the direction for movements at least the next one week.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 28/06/18

The crypto majors are back in the red as investors lock in Wednesday’s gains, cutting back any hopes of a near-term extended rally to reverse the continued bearish trend.
Bitcoin Back in Reverse
Bitcoin Cash gained 2.78% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesday’s 7.96% loss, to end the day at $713.6.

A start of the day fall to an intraday low $685.1 saw Bitcoin Cash hold above the first major support level at $671.43, before a late morning bounce led Bitcoin Cash back through to $700 levels, with a morning high $721.9.

An upward trend through the rest of the day saw Bitcoin Cash strike an intraday high $724.1 that came up short of the first major resistance level at $737.43, before easing back at the end of the day.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 0.86% to $707.3, with Bitcoin Cash hitting a morning high $724.8 at the start of the day before pulling back to a morning low $701, the moves through the early part of the day leaving the first major resistance level at $730.1 and first major support level at $691.1 untested early on.

For the day ahead, a move through to $710 levels would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $730.1, though for a move through to $730 levels, sentiment across the market will need to improve, investors locking in Wednesday’s gains in the early hours.

Failure to move back through $710 to take a run at $730 could see Bitcoin Cash take a bigger hit later in the day, sub-$700 support levels in play, with the extended bearish trend firmly intact.
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AUD/USD AND NZD/USD FUNDAMENTAL DAILY FORECAST – RBNZ COULD PUSH RATE HIKE FURTHER INTO FUTURE, OR CUT RATES

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. Traders are saying they knew that rates would stay the same, but they were surprised by the grim tone of Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr’s comments. Based on his comments, traders are now saying that a rate hike is a long way off, but the chances of a rate cut cannot be eliminated

The New Zealand Dollar is trading slightly lower early Thursday after a steep sell-off the previous session. At 0545, GMT the NZD/USD is trading .6776, down 0.0019 or -0.27%. The AUD/USD is at .7352, up 0.0012 or +0.16%.

Earlier in the session, in a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. The tone, however, of the RBNZ rate statement suggested the central bank looks to be leaning towards a more “dovish” stance in response to weaker-than-expected growth numbers.

Traders are saying they knew that rates would stay the same, but they were surprised by the grim tone of Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr’s comments. Based on his comments, traders are now saying that a rate hike is a long way off, but the chances of a rate cut cannot be eliminated.

Orr, in his statement, kept the door open, saying the central bank was well-positioned to manage change in either direction –up or down – as necessary. He also said the outlook for the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the bank’s May statement policy statement, remained intact.
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STELLAR’S LUMEN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – BUCKS THE TREND EARLY

Key Highlights
Stellar’s Lumen gained 4.09% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesday’s 7.73% slide, to end the day at $0.19099.
An intraday low $0.18015 hit in the early afternoon held above the day’s first major support level at $0.1771.
A mid-afternoon rally led Stellar’s Lumen to a late in the day intraday high $0.19327, coming within reach of the day’s first major resistance level at $0.1941 before easing to the day’s ending $0.19099.
Stellar’s Lumen Price Support
Stellar’s Lumen gained 4.09% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesday’s 7.73% slide, to end the day at $0.19099.

In a relatively choppy day, Stellar’s Lumen was under pressure through the morning, while finding support at $0.18 levels to avoid a pullback to $0.17 levels.

Failed attempts at a breakout in the late morning to $0.19 levels saw Stellar’s Lumen slide to an intraday low $0.18015 that held well above the day’s first major support level at $0.1771, leading to a second half of the day rally that saw Stellar’s Lumen move through to an intraday high $0.19327, testing the day’s first major resistance level at $0.1941 before easing back to an end of day $0.19099.

The continued failure to break out from major resistance levels and the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level at $0.2442 has left the extended bearish trend formed at late April’s swing hi $0.46457 firmly intact, with no signs of a bearish trend reversal in sight.

At the time of writing, Stellar’s Lumen was down 0.06% to $0.19087 in what’s been a range bound start to the day by Stellar Lumen standards.

An early morning $0.19243 high came up short of the day’s first major resistance level at $0.1961, with a mid-morning $0.18807 low managing to steer clear of the day’s first major support level at $0.1830 in spite of the broad based market sell-off, with Stellar’s Lumen having bucked the trend earlier in the morning with minor gains.

For the day ahead, a move through the morning’s high $0.19243 high would support a run at the first major resistance level a $0.1961 to bring $0.20 levels into play, though with sentiment across the broader market negative through the early part of the day, $0.20 levels will be some way off, leaving the extended bearish trend intact.

Failure to move back through the morning’s $0.19243 high could see Stellar’s Lumen catch up with the broader market through the afternoon, with the first major support level at $1830 in play, though we would expect Stellar’s Lumen to avoid bringing sub-$0.18 support levels into range barring particularly dire crypto news hitting the wires through the day.
Read more:Crypto News Archives - XtreamForex (http://www.xtreamacademy.com/cryptocurrency-news)

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E-MINI S&P 500 INDEX (ES) FUTURES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Based on the early trade, the direction of the index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 2695.75.
September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open lower based on the pre-market trade. Lingering concerns over the deteriorating trade relations between the United States and its trading partners, China and the European Union, continue to weigh on prices. Investors are also reacting to U.S. GDP data that came in below expectations.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 2679.25 will change the main trend is down.

The index is also down 11 sessions from the last main top at 2796.00 so it is in the window of time for a potential closing price reversal bottom.

The price action is also being influenced by a series of retracement levels.

The main range is 2595.75 to 2796.00. Its retracement zone at 2695.75 to 2672.25 is the primary downside target. The index is currently testing the upper or 50% level of this range at 2795.75.

On the upside, potential resistance levels are lined up at 2714.00, 2724.00, 2737.75 and 2755.25.
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MARKET MORNING BRIEFING: DOLLAR INDEX COULD PROBABLY SEE A DIP TO 95.00-94.75 LEVELS

STOCKS

Worries of trade tariff between US and its major trading partners seems to be taking the stocks lower. Imposition of 20% tariffs on EU vehicles as stated by Trump took down the automobile stocks on the Dax this week, while the EU posed retailitory tariffs of about 25% on $3.3bln of US goods in response to the US tariffs on EU steel and aluminium imports.

Dax (12177.23, -1.39%) looks bearish in the near term towards 11800.

Dow (24216.05, +0.41%) bounced a bit from levels just above 24000. While the daily trend support holds, there could be some upmove in Dow towards 24750. Else failure to remains above 24000 may take it lower to 23600 next week.

22000 is an important levels for Nikkei (22194.21, -0.34%). In case it breaks lower, it could be vulnerable to fall towards 21500 over the next couple of weeks. Watch price action near 22000.

Shanghai (2813.61, +0.96%) is likely to break below 2800 and head towards 2750 next week. The index looks bullish with some possibility of a bounce towards 2850.

Nifty (10589.10, -0.77%) finally broke below our expected 10650 levels and while the index trades lower, it could target 10400 in the near term. The index is bearish for the coming week.

COMMODITIES

Brent (77.39) may head towards 80 while above support near 76. Near term looks bullish. On the other hand, WTI (73.25) has resistance at 74 which if holds could bring in a small dip towards 72. 74-76 is a resistance zone for WTI which could prevent an immediate rise above current levels.

Gold (1249.70) is fast headed towards 1240 and may pause there. A short bounce from 1240 is possible before the price attempts to fall further. Overall Gold looks bearish for a few more sessions.

Copper (2.9730) could hold above immediate support near 2.95 and while that holds, the price could trade sideways in the 2.95-3.05 region.
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USD/JPY FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY FORECAST – U.S. BANK HOLIDAY COULD AFFECT PRICE ACTION, VOLUME

Lingering concerns over a possible trade war will continue to drive the price action, but investors also have to deal with a few major reports from the U.S. and minor reports from Japan. Traders will be particularly interested in the Fed Minutes which could reveal the central bank’s thoughts on the impact of a trade war on U.S. economic growth. Traders will also be looking for information on the possibility the Fed will allow inflation to overshoot its 2-percent target. Wednesday is a U.S. bank holiday.
The Dollar/Yen rebounded from early weakness last week to challenge its highest level since May 23. The Forex pair was underpinned by flight-to-safety buying into the U.S. Dollar and a hawkish outlook for U.S. interest rates.

For the week, the USD/JPY finished 110.687, up 0.701 or +0.64%.

The catalysts driving the Dollar/Yen higher ranged from lingering concerns over a trade war between the United States and its major trading partners, China and the European Union to U.S. economic data to Fed member comments.

After opening the week under pressure, the USD/JPY rallied as lingering global trade tensions prompted traders to ditch most high-yielding currencies and investors focused on expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan released its latest Summary of Opinions. Policymakers said the central bank should “patiently continue” its powerful monetary easing but attention must be paid to the potential side effects of prolonged easy policy. Some board members said the central bank needs to keep monetary easing from severely distorting economic and financial conditions, and to make current policy sustainable.

Overall, it appears that while the BOJ is expected to ride the current economic momentum towards its price target of 2 percent inflation, policymaker opinions have become clearly divided.

In U.S. economic news, the Commerce Department said Wednesday durable goods orders dropped 0.6 percent last month. That followed a steeper drop of 1 percent in April.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. first-quarter growth slowed more than estimated. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the January-March period, instead of the 2.2 percent pace it reported last month.

Consumer confidence fell well below economists’ expectations in June, fueled by a bleak outlook for U.S. economic conditions. The Confidence Board’s index dropped to 126.4 from a revised 128.8 in May. The index was expected to hit 128.1.

Additionally, Dallas Fed Bank President Robert Kaplan said he believes the U.S. central bank’s monetary policy is still accommodative and suggested the Fed could raise rates at least two more times before it stops being accommodative. However, Federal Open Market Committee member Raphael Bostic said he may rule out a fourth rate hike this year if trade issues start to negatively affect the economy.
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MARKET MORNING BRIEFING: DOLLAR YEN HAS BROKEN ABOVE CRUCIAL RESISTANCE LEVEL NEAR 110.75

STOCKS

Dow (24271.41, +0.23%) has risen and while the daily trend support near 24000 holds, the index could move up towards 25000. Near term looks bullish.

Dax (12306, +1.06%) is stable and is stuck in the broad 12400-12100 region just now. Break below 12100 support could take it lower towards weekly support near 11800 as mentioned last week. Watch price action near 12100.

Nikkei (22288.67, -0.071%) is stable while above 22000 and could gradually try to move back towards 22600-22800 levels. Overall broad movement in the 22000-22800 region looks likely in the medium term.

Shanghai (2823.43, -0.84%) bounced back to trade slightly higher. While above 2750, there is chance that the index could trade sideways for sometime within 2750-2850 levels. But a break below 2750 in the medium term could open up further downside of 2700 in the longer run.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS

The majors consolidated Friday’s gains on Saturday, but the sea of red returned in the early hours of the day to test investor resolve ahead of Monday, the majors needing to reverse the morning’s gains to go into the week on a high note.

Bitcoin Consolidates
Bitcoin Cash gained 4.35% on Saturday, following Friday’s 9.08% recovery, to end the day at $747.7, taking Bitcoin Cash into positive territory for the week, up 0.08%.

Friday’s late rally continued into the early hours of Saturday, with Bitcoin Cash breaking through the day’s first major resistance level at $756.37 to a morning high $787.4, before easing back to $750 levels through the morning.

An afternoon pullback saw Bitcoin Cash fall to an intraday low $722.3, holding above the first major support level at $717.53, before recovering late in the day to consolidate Friday’s gains with interest.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 2.69% to $727.8, with the late Saturday recovery reversing in the early hours, Bitcoin Cash pulling back from a start of the day $753.2 high to a morning low $727.7, the morning’s moves leaving major support and resistance levels untested.

For the day ahead a move back through $752.47 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $782.63, though following two consecutive days’ of gains, some profit taking would be expected going into Monday, the extended bearish trend still intact in spite of the recent gains.

Failure to move back through $752.47 to take a run at $780 levels could see Bitcoin Cash pullback through the day to test the first major support level at $717.53, with sentiment across the broader market to dictate whether sub-700 support levels would be tested before any recovery.
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PRICE OF GOLD FUNDAMENTAL WEEKLY FORECAST – LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK STILL BEARISH AS MARKET NEARS 1-YEAR LOW

The longer-term outlook for gold is bearish, however, over the short-term, we could see some profit-taking or short-covering due to technically oversold conditions. The shorts are still in control and the momentum is to the downside. Additionally, safe haven demand is driving money into the dollar and U.S. Treasurys.

Investors continued to shed long positions in gold last week with the precious metal hitting its lowest level since July 12, 2017. The price action has been primarily driven by a stronger U.S. Dollar and expectations for additional rate hikes by the Fed later this year.

Since gold is a dollar-denominated asset, foreign demand for gold tends to decrease when the U.S. Dollar strengthens. Furthermore, since gold doesn’t pay interest or a divided, it becomes a less attractive investment during a rising interest rate environment.

Last week, August Comex Gold settled at $1254.50, down $16.20 or -1.27%. Since December 31, 2017, gold has lost $59.50 or -4.53%.

The U.S. Dollar continued to be supported last week by the divergence in monetary policy between the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and other less-hawkish and dovish central banks. Other catalysts driving the price action in the U.S. Dollar ranged from lingering concerns over a trade war between the United States and its major trading partners, China and the European Union to U.S. economic data to Fed member comments.

At one point last week, gold fell and the dollar rose as lingering global trade tensions prompted traders to ditch most high-yielding currencies and investors focused on expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates.

In economic news, orders for long-lasting U.S. factory goods declined for the second straight month in May, as demand for cars, metal products and aircraft fell. The Commerce Department said Wednesday durable goods orders dropped 0.6 percent last month. That followed a steeper drop of 1 percent in April.
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EURUSD REFUSES TREND DESPITE $300 BILLION TRADE THREAT AND GERMAN BREAKTHROUGH

TALKING POINTS:
Trade wars escalated over the weekend with the EU warning the tab with the US could surge to $300 billion on autos tariffs
Despite the multifaceted and extremely high cost trade war, risk trends were uneven to start the week with US indices green
Aside from trade wars, the Dollar dealt with an IMF diversification update while the Euro and Pound dealt with political risks.

RISK TRENDS START THE WEEK/MONTH/QUARTER ON AN UNEVEN FOOTING

Monday’s session has brought us into a new month and quarter – with the typical speculative and procedural rebalancing that we would expect in these rollover periods. Considering how the market traded through this opening session, there is serious uncertainty plaguing investors across regions and asset classes. Considering the most pressing and systemic financial threat of the time – trade wars – was further escalated over the weekend, it would have been fair to see a more substantial and progressive a decline than what we registered. The open clearly reflected concern. Global equities all opened significantly lower through either a gap or the opening hours of trade on their respective sessions. However, by the close of New York trade, the benchmark indices had clawed back the losses registered on steep bearish opening gaps. Yet, not all that was risk aligned was able to recover the zombie like complacency that has worked so hard to keep asset prices buoyant. Both the HYG junk bond and EEM Emerging Market ETFs gaped sharply lower to open the day and failed to recover most of the ground lost before the first price was even registered for the session. This is perhaps a poor signal for what the rest of this week will offer in risk terms. We have a US market holiday Wednesday which will present a temporary break. Furthermore, the fundamentals risks that hang over these markets are both severe in their capacity for reach and turn trend with little forewarning.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES PUSH THROUGH $6600

The prices are likely to remain buoyant in the short term.
The BTC prices pushed higher over the last 24 hours as the bulls return to try and take grip of the market during this period. It is a new month and though we feel that the crypto market is not out of the woods as yet, we believe that the market would be buoyant in the coming days and the bulls have made a statement for that in the first full trading day of the month yesterday. The prices shot through the $6600 region which in itself is a big achievement for the bulls. The key would be the region around the price of $6800 and this is where we are likely to witness a lot of selling and we are likely to see the bulls slip up once again.

BTC Prices Continue Rebound
This has been the region of battle between the bulls and the bears and the bulls have been unable to surmount the selling in this region so far. It remains to be seen whether they would launching another attack on this region in a day or 2 and if they do, it would be interesting to see the price action this time. There have not been specific fundamentals to drive the prices higher but we have seen that some of the funds get diverted into the BTC markets whenever there is risk and there is a fall in the stock markets and yesterday could have been more proof of this same phenomenon which only time will tell.
Read more:Crypto News Archives - XtreamForex (http://www.xtreamacademy.com/cryptocurrency-news)

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GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – GOLD TEST SUPPORT FOLLOWING ROBUST U.S. PMI DATA

Gold prices are trading under pressure on the first trading session of the Q3, following a stronger than expected U.S. ISM manufacturing report, which buoyed the greenback paving the way for lower gold prices. U.S. construction spending also increased following a sharp climb in April which also helped generated headwinds for the yellow metal. EU unemployment held steady in May, which was in line with expectations.

Gold prices are testing last weeks lows near 1,247 and a break of this level would lead to a test of target support near the December 2017 lows at 1,236. Resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,260. Momentum is negative but decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 6, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction in gold prices.

U.S. ISM manufacturing index increased More than Expected

U.S. ISM manufacturing index increased 1.5 points to 60.2 in June, better than expected, after rising 1.4 points to 58.7 in May. Expectation wre This number is just off the 60.8 from February which a 14-year high. The employment component dipped to 56.0 from 56.3. And new orders slipped to 63.5 from 63.7. New export orders rose to 56.3 from 55.6. Prices paid fell to 76.8 from 79.5 as some pressures slowed.
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MARKET MORNING BRIEFING: POUND HAS BREACHED THE IMMEDIATE RESISTANCE NEAR 1.3175

STOCKS

Important level of 24000 has not broken yet on the Dow (24174.82, -0.54%). Although 3-day chart show further room on the downside, while 24000 holds, the index could trade sideways in the 24000-24800 region for some time.

Dax (12349.14, +0.91%) bounced back taking support from the weekly candles and the trend support visible on the line charts. While the support holds, the index could move up towards 12600-12700 in the next few sessions.

Nikkei (21654.32, -0.60%) was stable below 21800 and looks bearish for the coming sessions. As mentioned yesterday, the downside target for Nikkei could be 21400-21200 just now. Need to see if the 3-day candle support holds there and produces a bounce.

Shanghai (2781.04, -0.21%) is in a pause mode below 2800. Failure to bounce back to levels above 2800 could take it lower towards 2750-2700 in the medium term. Near to medium term looks bearish.

Clarity on movement in Nifty (10699.90, +0.40%) persists while the index trades in the 10600-10800 region. Another 4-5 sessions could be spent in the mentioned region before a break out on either side is seen.
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US DOLLAR PRICE ACTION SETUPS: EUR/USD REVERSAL PROSPECTS IN Q3

In this webinar, we looked across FX setups in the US Dollar using price action to dig into the various scenarios facing traders as we move into the second-half of 2018. US Dollar strength came back in a very big way in Q2; but after EUR/USD has tried and failed to set a fresh low for a month, might the move have a retracement in its future? Relevant to EUR/USD is what happened last October/November, when a stimulus extension in October was offset a couple of weeks later by a red-hot German GDP report, bringing buyers back into the pair before EUR/USD eventually challenged the 1.2500 level. Of recent, European inflation has been growing, and this came-in at the ECB’s target of 2% in the month of June; producing a backdrop that could create a redux of the October/November scenario from last year.

US DOLLAR HOLDS STRENGTH AS Q3, 2H 2018 BEGINS
The biggest take-away from last quarter was the shift into US Dollar strength. The Dollar was bearish for over a year as more than -15% of its value was taken out from the January, 2017 high down to the February, 2018 low. While this was happening, the Fed was one of the few hawkish Central Banks and the US was continuing to show decent economic fundamentals, thereby keeping the door open for more rate hikes. But markets seemed to care little as the selling just continued in the US Dollar. We’d previously suggested that this selling was being driven by a larger fiscal theme, and that remains as a possibility.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS
Monday’s rally continued through this morning, suggesting a possible bearish trend reversal beginning, in spite of regulators and governments having yet to roll out new regs. It’s now down to whether investors can hold back from hitting the sell-button to lock in profits.

Bitcoin Cash Bounces
Bitcoin Cash gained 4.34% on Monday, reversing Sunday’s 1.47% fall, to end the day at $781.1, while also pulling Bitcoin Cash into positive territory at the start of the 3rd quarter.

A relatively range bound first half of the day saw Bitcoin Cash pullback to an intraday low $721.2 by mid-morning, Bitcoin Cash managing to steer clear of testing the day’s first major support level at $717.47 before a mid-day bounce.

Following the broader market, Bitcoin Cash jumped from $735.8 to an intraday high $797.6 in the early afternoon, with Bitcoin Cash breaking through the first major resistance level at $755.47 and second major resistance level at $773.33 to an intraday high $797.6 before pulling back to $780 levels by the day’s end.

For the bulls, Bitcoin Cash came within reach of $800 levels for the first time since sitting at $800 levels back on 23rd June.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 4.42% to $815.5, with the latest move seeing Bitcoin Cash beginning to form a near-term bullish trend from 29th June’s swing lo $645.5, while the extended bearish trend remains intact, with Bitcoin Cash needing to break through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $930 to begin a bearish trend reversal.

For the day ahead, a move back through a morning high $831.3 would support a run at the day’s second major resistance level at $843.03 to bring $900 levels into play, with Bitcoin Cash having moved through and held above the first major resistance level at $812.07 earlier in the day.

Failure to take a run at $840 levels could see investors look to lock in profits from Monday and this morning’s gains, which could see Bitcoin Cash slide back through the morning’s $779 low to bring the first major support level at $735.67 into play before any recovery, sub-$700 support levels likely to be left untested barring materially negative news hitting the wires.
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GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – GOLD SURGES FORMING OUTSIDE DAY REVERSAL

Gold prices rebounded sharply on Tuesday, as trade concerns and Trump tweets roiled the capital markets. European PPI accelerated more than expected which could push the ECB into action more quickly than expected paving the way for higher gold prices. Gold prices surged generating an outside day, which is a higher high, a lower low and a higher close which is generally considered a reversal pattern pointing to higher prices. Support is seen near the June lows at 1,237. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,257. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal.

Trump said he hopes the WTO changes its ways
Trump said he hopes the WTO changes its ways and if they don’t treat us properly, we will be doing something. He plans to be meeting with the EU about trade soon as well. He just spoke with the president-elect of Mexico about border security, trade, NAFTA and possibly a separate trade agreement. Trump thinks the president-elect will help with the border. He is also continuing to meet over the Supreme Court candidates and expects to make a decision in the next few days.

U.S. chain store sales rose
U.S. chain store sales rose 0.3% in the week ended June 30, according to The Retail Economist data, after jumping 3.0% in the prior week. The 12-month pace remained firm and accelerated slightly to a 3.6% year over year clip versus 3.4% year over year previously. Dollar stores, traditional grocery, and online-only retailers have been the consistent leaders in recent weeks. On the other hand, department stores and wholesale clubs have struggled. With 98% of retailers reporting, sales are up 3.0% year over year for the first fiscal quarter of 2018, the best since the 3.4% year over year rate in the first fiscal quarter of 2012.

Eurozone PPI inflation accelerated to 3.0% year over year in May, from 1.9% year over year in the previous month. Prices were up 0.8% m/m, after stagnating in April, as energy prices jumped 2.6% m/m higher
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GOLD PRICE FORECAST – GOLD MARKETS SLIGHTLY BULLISH IN THIN TRADING ON WEDNESDAY

Gold markets rose slightly during the trading session on Wednesday yet remain very choppy as the geopolitical situation continues to move markets in general. Beyond that, the US dollar has been very noisy as of late as traders try to get a grasp on what is happening around the world as far as trade is concerned.

Gold markets went back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, rallying slightly as the Americans were away celebrating the Independence Day holiday. This made for a thin market, so I would not take too much to heart with the move to the upside, but I think we are essentially in a situation where we should be waiting for signs of exhaustion that we can start selling. This is because Gold has recently broken below a major uptrend line, and of course the US dollar continues to strengthen overall. However, in the Forex world the US dollar has given back a little bit of the gains, as it may have gotten a bit overbought and was due for a correction.

I believe that the market will eventually go looking towards the $1200 level, and at this point I’m waiting for some type of exhaustive set up to take advantage of the US dollar being offered “on the cheap.” Overall, I think that the market is one that you need to be patient with, and therefore I think the old axiom of “we get paid to wait as traders” certainly applies to this market.

Overall this will continue to be very noisy market, but I think that the patient and prudent trader will find plenty of opportunities in this longer-term downtrend. However, if we were to break above the $1275 level should send this market looking towards the $1285 level.
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EURO GAINS AS ECB INCREASES RATE HIKE BETS, EUR/USD MAY RISE NEXT

EURO TALKING POINTS:
Euro prices rose as some ECB members fret over late-2019 rate hike bets
Upcoming commentary from Yves Mersch could reveal more details next
EUR/USD’s recent consolidation is met with fading downside momentum.
During illiquid trading conditions given the US Independence Day holiday, the Euro suddenly spiked higher against its major counterparts. Around 16:20 GMT, reports crossed the wires that some ECB members are seeing a rate hike around the end of 2019 as ‘too late’. In the aftermath of this development, EUR/USDmanaged to nearly pare most of its losses when the US Dollar gained as expected.

To give a little bit of context, back in June the European Central Banksent the Euro tumbling despite confirmation of its QE programme coming to an end by the end of this year. What really drove the currency lower was President Mario Draghi’s patience in terms of waiting to raise rates thereafter. This was reiterated at an ECB Forum in Portugal on June 19th.

With that said, any signs to the contrary are likely to have bullish impacts on the Euro. In fact, German front-end government bond yields rose as today’s update crossed the wires. This indicates increasing hawkish ECB monetary policy expectations. Some ECB members were also said today to be a bit uneasy that September/October 2019 policy bets are underpriced.
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S&P 500 PRICE FORECAST – S&P 500 CLOSED FOR HOLIDAY

The US stock markets were of course close during the trading session on Wednesday as it was Independence Day. However, the CFD markets were open, so we did get a little bit of action.

The S&P 500 has gone slightly higher in the CFD markets, but at this point we are essentially continued to consolidate in general with the 2700 level underneath being massive support, while the 2740 level has been resistive. I think that the market should continue to go back and forth, and I believe that the market will continue to be one that you will have to be very cautious with and perhaps trade in small bits and pieces and I believe that the market should continue to be beholden to tweets and headlines coming across the newswires when it comes to the US and Chinese trade tariffs.

Overall, I think that the 2700 level is crucial on longer-term charts, so it makes sense that we continue to see buyers jump in based upon value in that area. If we can ever get some type of good news out of the stock markets as far as earnings are concerned, or at least a calming down of trade tensions, this market could break out to the upside. A move above the 2750 level should send this market towards the 2800 level next. Otherwise, if we do break down I think that the market will go looking towards the 2650 level, followed by the 2600 level after that. Overall, this is a market that continues to be very noisy and I think that the most important thing you can do is keep your position size small enough so that if you get a sudden headline moving against you, you don’t lose too much. I believe sideways action continues to be the way going forward based upon the couple of lines that I have on the chart.
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GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – GOLD RALLIES FOLLOWING SOFT U.S. JOBS DATA

Gold prices continued to rise following the softer than expected jobs data reported on Thursday, ahead of Friday’s U.S. unemployment report. ADP, U.S. Challenger and the Jobless Claims report all came in weaker than expected. This generated headwinds for the dollar and paved the way for higher gold prices. Gold pushed above former resistance now support near the 10-day moving average at 1,255. Resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,290. Momentum will turn positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is poised to generate a crossover buy signal. The fast stochastic surged from oversold territory which reflects accelerating positive momentum.
ADP Private Payrolls Missed Expectations
U.S. ADP reported private payrolls increased 177k in June, below expectations, following May’s 189k gain which was revised from 178k. Employment in the goods producing sector rose 29k, manufacturing up 12k and construction up 13k. Jobs in the service providing sector were up 148k, with education/health adding 46k, leisure/hospitality 33k, and trade/transport 24k higher.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES STAGNANT

The market continues to have ranging as the name of the game.
The BTC prices continued to trade within a tight range and consolidate, something which we had pointed to in our forecast yesterday. We do not expect much action in the crypto markets in the day ahead as the prices seem to be caught within a range as the market begins to mature and the market begins to get more regulated. Many of the large investors and traders are still waiting on the sidelines to see how the regulations are going to change in due course of time and whether those would be favourable for the market during the short and medium term. Only after all this is done and dusted, they would be in a position to move into trades in due course of time.
BTC Prices Consolidate and Range
The day traders and the short term traders are having a frustrating time as the moves and the volatility in the market has been pretty low over the last few weeks. This is something that we had anticipated and with the region around $6800 capping the prices as far as BTC is concerned, we are seeing some tight trading though the prices have been moving freely below this region. It is going to take some more weeks for the traders and the investors to come to terms with the regulation and the associated price action and till that happens, the other traders do not have much of a choice but to wait and see how things pan out.
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MARKET MORNING BRIEFING: POUND IS TRADING CLOSE TO RESISTANCE ON DAILY CANDLES NEAR 1.33

STOCKS

Dow (24456.48, +0.41%) moved up while support near 24000 holds just now. Some sideways trade in the 24000-24750 region is possible in the coming sessions before the index moves up further. Near term looks bullish.

Dax (12496.17, +0.26%) has also moved up and looks bullish for the coming sessions targeting 12800-13000.

Nikkei (22063.74, +1.26%) has broken above 22000 level and if the index sustains above 22000, it could target higher levels of 22400-22600 in the medium term.

Shanghai (2789.08, +1.52%) has room on the downside towards 2700-2650. We do not expect a fall below 2650 in the longer run. The fall is likely in its last phase of the fall and would soon start rising back towards 2800+ levels to move higher in the longer run.

Important level to watch in Nifty (10772.65, +0.21%) is 10800. While the index trades below 10800, bearishness could persist. A sustained break above 10800 would trigger some medium term bullishness. Watch price action near 10800.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS

The majors were the beneficiary of some favourable news from the South Korean government on Saturday, with the moves through the early part of today to decide whether a bearish trend reversal is about to kick in.
Bitcoin Cash in Recovery

Bitcoin Cash gained 5.81% on Saturday, reversing Thursday and Friday’s declines to end the day at $776.2, with the gains pulling Bitcoin Cash back into positive territory for the week, up 5.26% through to the end of Saturday.

The day’s gains came off the back of a late in the day rally from an intraday low $707.7 through the first major resistance level at $751.33 and second major resistance level at $769.57 to an intraday high $781.7 before easing back to $770 levels, the first major support level at $706.73 left untested through the day.

Saturday’s broad based market rally came off the back of news that the South Korean government will loosen its rules on cryptocurrencies in order to align with the G20’s planned roll out of unified global regulations by the end of July deadline.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 0.69% to $769, with Bitcoin Cash pulling back from a start of the day $783.3 to a morning low $762.2 before recovering.

For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high $783.3 would support a run at $800 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $802.7. In the event of another rally through the day, in the wake of the latest news from South Korea, we would expect Bitcoin Cash to break out from the second major resistance level at $829.2 to bring $900 levels into play before any reversal.

Failure to move through to $800 levels could see Bitcoin Cash pullback through the afternoon to test support at the first major support level of $728.7 before any recovery.
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GOLD PRICE FUTURES (GC) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – TRADER REACTION TO RETRACEMENT ZONE AT $1256.60 TO $1260.80 SHOULD SET THE TONE TODAY

Based on Friday’s close at $1255.80, the direction of the August Comex Gold market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1256.60.
Gold futures are trading steady early Monday. Today, investors will be taking their cues from the movement of Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar. Lower yields should help make the dollar a less-desirable investment while driving up demand for dollar-denominated gold.

At 2232 GMT, August Comex Gold is trading $1256.50, up $0.70 or +0.05%.

The price action the first two days of the week should tell us if last week’s daily/weekly closing price reversal bottom chart pattern was real or just a few traders taking advantage of the below-average volume trading conditions.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum shifted to the upside with the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on July 3 and the subsequent confirmation on July 5.

A trade through $1262.40 will indicate the upside momentum is getting stronger. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1274.40. A trade through $1238.80 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could drive the market into a series of bottoms at $1230.70, $1228.20 and $1217.20.

The main range is $1274.40 to $1238.80. Its retracement zone at $1256.60 to $1260.80 is currently being tested. Since the trend is down, sellers are coming in on a test of this zone. Overcoming it could drive the market into the next retracement zone at $1275.90 to $1284.70.

The short-term range is $1238.80 to $1262.40. The key area to watch is its 50% level or pivot at $1250.60. Aggressive counter-trend buyers may step in on a test of this level in an effort to produce a secondary higher bottom.
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AUD/USD PRICE FORECAST – AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RALLIES TO START THE WEEK

The Australian dollar rallied to start the week, reaching towards the 0.75 level which of course is always going to be psychologically important. Beyond that, there is structural support and resistance at that level, so I think that it’s likely that we will continue to see this area cause a bit of a reaction.

The Australian dollar rallied significantly during the day on Monday as traders came back from the weekend, but the 0.75 level continues to be major resistance. I think it’s going take a significant amount of bullish momentum to finally break above that level, and I don’t consider it broken until we break above the 0.75 level on a daily close. Until then, I think that short-term traders will continue to push and try to break out to the upside, but if we were to turn around and break below the 0.7450 level, it’s likely that the Australian dollar will rollover and go looking towards the 0.74 level.

The Australian dollar is highly levered to the Asian economy, which of course is highly levered to the trade wars are going on right now. So far, they haven’t been overly destructive, but one has to question how long it’s going take for the market to freak out over these headlines? I think we will continue to see a lot of choppy and violent trading in the Australian dollar, but I would be much more confident longer-term if we can finally clear the 0.75 level. If we don’t, we could drop as far as 0.7350 and not change much in the overall attitude of this market. Pay attention to gold, it has its usual influence as well, just as the Chinese stock markets will to a lesser extent.
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NZD/USD FOCUSES ON RISK TRENDS AFTER CREDIT SPENDING DATA

TALKING POINTS:
New Zealand Dollar rose after local credit card spending beat
NZD mirrored market sentiment as global stocks posted gains
The currency pair eyes risk trends and CPI data for next move
The New Zealand Dollar appreciated against its US counterpart ahead of Tuesday’s Asia Pacific trading session. Its upside momentum was accelerated in the aftermath of better than expected local monthly retail credit card spending data.

Purchases increased 0.8% versus +0.5% estimated and May’s 0.6% increase. However, the data had a limited impact on RBNZ monetary policy bets, as local two-year government bond yields were largely unchanged. Keep in mind, the reserve bank is awaiting stable 2% inflation as it contemplates a rate change in either direction.

New Zealand’s currency appeared to be more interested in developments in risk trends, rather. S&P 500futures rose heading into Tuesday’s Asia Pacific trading session, following positive worldwide stock performance. Due to NZD’s relatively higher associated yield in the major FX spectrum, the currency tends to closely follow market sentiment.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 10/07/18

It’s been a bearish start to the day, with Monday’s late sell-off continuing into the early hours of this morning to test investor resolve. Some recovery is to be expected, though whether resistance levels can be tested remains to be seen.

Bitcoin Cash in the Hands of the Bears
Bitcoin Cash fell by 2.68% on Monday, following on from Sunday’s 3.31% slide, to end the day at $729.

Upward momentum through the first half of the day saw Bitcoin Cash move through to $750 levels, following an early dip to sub-$740 levels, before pulling back through the second half of the day, with Bitcoin Cash falling through the first major support level at $730.1 to an intraday low $725.7 late in the day.

A spike ahead of the day’s low saw Bitcoin Cash briefly strike $760 levels with an intraday high $761.9 that fell short of the day’s first major resistance level at $774.1 and saw Bitcoin Cash fail to hit $800 levels for a 5thconsecutive day.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 0.92% to $722.3, with a spill over from Monday’s late in the day sell-off continuing through the early hours, taking Bitcoin Cash to a morning low $720 before steadying. The early moves left the day’s first major support and resistance levels untested.

For the day ahead, a move through to $740 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $752.03, though for Bitcoin Cash to find support and begin reversing the morning’s losses, sentiment across the broader market will need to shift.

Failure to move through $740 levels to take a run at $750 could see Bitcoin Cash slide through the first major support level at $715.83 to bring the second major support level at $702.67 into play and a possible visit to sub-$700 levels before any recovery should sentiment not shift through the early afternoon.
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US AM DIGEST: EUR DIPS ON ZEW SURVEY, GBP HAMPERED BY SOFT OUTPUT DATA

Major Headlines

German ZEW Survey hits 6 year low on trade war concerns
UK Monthly GDP prints in line with expectations, output data disappoints.
EUR: Among the underperforming currencies amid the bounce back in the USD index. Alongside this, German ZEW survey plunged to its lowest level in 6 years, consequently exacerbating the selling seen in EURUSD, which in turn led to a break below the 1.1700 handle. Elsewhere, Italy’s Savona, stated that it may depend on others whether Italy stays in the Euro, as such this saw Italian bond yields spiked higher, while the FTSE MIB retraced some of its earlier gains.
GBP: The UK economy continued to pick up in May after the slowdown seen in Q1 amid the boost in service sector growth, while manufacturing and industrial activity data disappointed. The first look at the new monthly GDP report printed in line with expectations at 0.3%, while the yearly rate beat consensus at 1.5% (Exp. 1.4%). However, the soft industrial and manufacturing data prompted the selloff in the Pound, while domestic political uncertainty continues to keep GBP on the back foot.

TRY: Once President Erdogan’s executive presidential system came into effect, the President no time in utilising his new powers. Firstly, Erdogan changed the Turkish Central Bank law, allowing him to appoint who he wants as deputy governors without the consent of the governor. Most notably Erdogan appointed his son-in-law as the new finance minister and removed the market friendly, Simsek and Al Babacan which prompted a sell-off in the Turkish Lira. As such, Erdogan has tightened his control over crucial policy areas without the involvement of qualified domain experts.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES SLIDE

The prices have come under pressure, though for no specific fundamental reason, and this continues the range and consolidation in this market.
The BTC prices fell back into range and as we have been saying many times over the last few days, this is likely to continue in the short and medium term as well. We do not find any reason for the prices to make a breakout on either side of the range and hence the prices are only going to consolidate in the coming days. The prices are back below the $6500 region and though there might be a temptation to find a reason for the fall, we would advise our readers to not to try and look at it too much as this has been the case over the past several weeks. The market has become settled more or less over the last few weeks and we are seeing increasing signs of maturity, unlike the same time last year where even little bits of news were met with the prices moving up very quickly or moving down very quickly as well.

BTC Prices Correct Lower
With the market maturing, we are seeing that the volatility is also dying down along with it and this is a good sign for the near future for the crypto markets. This is what is likely to attract the more saner traders and investors and this welcome sign is only going to attract more and more investors in due course of time. So the traders have to sit tight in these quiet times and hope that things begin to change and become more volatile and there is a breakout in the near future which would make the trading attractive for the day traders.
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S&P 500 PRICE FORECAST – S&P 500 CONTINUES TO BUILD UPWARD PRESSURE

The S&P 500 market has drifted a bit higher during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching towards the 2800 level above. I think that the market is trying to build up enough momentum to finally break out above there, but it’s going to take quite a bit of bullish pressure to do so.

The S&P 500 has gone a little higher during the trading session on Tuesday, as it looks like we are ready to reach towards the 2800 level. I think that if we can break above that level, it’s likely that we are going to continue to go higher. Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, and with that being the case it’s likely that the 2770 level underneath will offer support, and most certainly the 2750 level will as well.

If we do break above the 2800 level, the market is very likely to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the 2850 level over the longer-term. The S&P 500 will of course offer buying opportunities on these dips as the market certainly favors the upside overall. That’s not to say that it will be easy, but I think eventually we will go higher. Ultimately, the S&P 500 is a great barometer on the global market risk appetite, which seems to be doing a bit better over the last several days. The jobs number last week of course helped, so I think that the S&P 500 will continue to find plenty of value hunters on dips.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES CONTINUE TO SLIDE
The prices continued to move lower for another trend as the bearish trend in the markets continue to keep the prices under pressure.
The BTC prices are well and truly back in range as the prices fall further towards the support regions and now we are seeing the prices trade in the $6300 region as of this writing. We would not be surprised if the correction continues and the prices move lower as the risks around the world recede and so we are seeing some of the funds being pulled out of the crypto market and being dumped into other markets which give better returns in due course of time. This is one of the reasons why we are seeing the prices move lower over the last couple of days after threatening to break through the $6800 region of resistance at the start of the week.
BTC Prices Correct Further
We had mentioned at that time that this would be the region that is likely to witness a battle between the bulls and the bears and as long as the prices continue below this region, the bears are firmly in control. This is what we are seeing now as the prices have since tumbled lower and the market continues to trade in a weak manner. We are seeing support coming in at the $6200 region and we can also see a lot of buying coming in at the $5800 region from where the prices have rebounded over the last couple of times. So, as of now, the market seems to be locked in a large range of around $1000 and this is set to be the case for the rest of the month.
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AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TICKS LOWER AS INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DO TOO

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, TALKING POINTS:
Australian consumer inflation expectations slid in July
Persistently low consumer price acceleration is among the Reserve Bank of Australia’s biggest headaches
The Australian Dollar remains pressures
The Australian Dollar slipped just a little on Thursday as official data found consumers even less concerned about inflation than they had been in the previous month.

Consumer inflation expectations came in at 3.9% on the year for July, below the 4.2% seen in June. This probably will not please interest rate setters at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Low inflation is one of their key concerns at present and shoppers’ expectations of further price rises are a key component of policy.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS



While it’s a positive start to the day, it’s going to need to be a spectacular end to the weekend for the majors to see their losses from the week reversed. Uncertainty over what lies ahead from a regulatory standpoint remains the key issue for the market.

Bitcoin Cash Back at $700 Levels
Bitcoin Cash gained 1.4% on Saturday, following Friday’s 0.77% rise, to end the day at $701.9.

Friday’s late reversal continued through the morning, with Bitcoin Cash falling to an intraday low $685.5 before moving back through to $700 levels, the day’s first major support level at $679.97 left untested on the day.

An afternoon recovery saw Bitcoin Cash break through the first major resistance level at $709.07 with an intraday high $713 before easing back, Bitcoin Cash managing to hold on to $700 levels, though plenty of resistance pinned Bitcoin Cash back from an early weekend rally.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 0.25% to $703.3, with Bitcoin Cash recovering from an early dip to a morning $697.6 low, which held above the day’s first major support level at $687.27, to a morning high $704.8.

For the day ahead a move, through to $705 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level a $714.77, with the second major resistance level at $727.63 in play should market sentiment improve through the morning.

Failure to take a run at the first major resistance level could see Bitcoin Cash reverse later in the day, with the day’s first major support level at $687.27 very much in play in the event of a sell-off that would leave Bitcoin Cash at sub-$700 levels by the end of the weekend.
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AUD FALLS ON CHINA GDP AS NBS SEES EXTERNAL UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD

TALKING POINTS:
Australian Dollar depreciates despite solid Chinese second quarter GDP
Weaker industrial production amidst US Chinese import tariffs hurt AUD
China’s NBS does see more external uncertainties for the economy ahead
The Australian Dollar depreciated against its major counterparts despite some relatively solid Chinese second quarter growth statistics. China’s economy expanded 6.7% y/y which was in line with expectations and slower than the 6.8% growth seen in the first quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, China’s GDP was 1.8%. This was better than the +1.6% estimate and up from 1.4% prior.

Overall, these economic growth statistics were largely as expected and nothing extraordinary out of the realm of possibilities. Yet, what could have caused some weakness in the Aussie Dollar? And for that matter, the New Zealand Dollar as well? Look no further more than the industrial production figures which also crossed the wires simultaneously with the GDP data.

In June, Chinese industrial production increased only 6.0% y/y versus 6.5% anticipated and 6.8% in May. That was the weakest outcome since March and continues a trend of slowing expansion since April. Perhaps the tariffs US applied on China could be having some effects here. In fact, accompanying the slew of data were some comments from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
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USD/JPY FUNDAMENTAL DAILY FORECAST – U.S. RETAIL SALES EXPECTED TO RISE 0.4%

On Monday, the USD/JPY is going to continue to be sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields and appetite for risk. The Forex pair could continue to climb if tensions rise due to increasing concerns over the trade dispute between the United States and China. This is because investors are treating the dollar like a safe haven asset. Trading is light early Monday because of a bank holiday in Japan. At 1230 GMT, the U.S. is scheduled to release reports on Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index. At 1400 GMT, Look for a report on Business Inventories.

The Dollar/Yen is trading slightly lower early Monday. Traders are reacting to firm demand for higher risk assets and slightly higher U.S. Treasury yields. On Friday, the yen recovered from a six-month low against the Greenback.

At 0047 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 112.429, up 0.080 or +0.07%.

Last week, the Dollar/Yen was driven higher in reaction to robust U.S. producer and consumer inflation data that supported the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates at least two more times in 2018. Upbeat comments on the U.S. economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also stoked demand for the dollar.

Last Thursday, Fed chief Powell said in a Marketplace radio interview he believes the U.S. economy remains in a “good place,” with recent government tax and spending programs likely to boost growth for perhaps three years.

On Friday, the Fed released its semiannual report on monetary policy before Powell’s scheduled testimony to Congress this week on Tuesday and Wednesday. The report showed solid U.S. economic growth and the Fed expecting to keep raising rates gradually.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES SURGE

The prices have surged higher due to support from some large investors and the improvement of fundamentals in the market.
The BTC prices have got a boost over the last 24 hours and now the bulls are beginning to look quite threatening. The prices have been buoyant over the last week or so when compared to the previous weeks and over the last week, we have seen the prices make a move to push through the $6800 region a couple of times as well. They have been rejected so far but the point to note here is that the correction following the rejection has been pretty slow and shallow and the rebound has been quick and strong which shows that the bulls are slowly beginning to take control of the market. But the prices are still below the important resistance region of $6800 and this region is going to witness a huge battle between the bulls and the bears for control.
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FX WEEK AHEAD: CAD, GBP, JPY, AND NZD INFLATION; AND AUSSIE JOBS

Talking Points:

– Data releases are thinning on the calendar this week, with speeches from central bank policymakers making up three of the remaining eight ‘high’ rated events through Friday.

– Inflation data in focus this week with New Zealand (Monday), British (Wednesday), Japanese (Thursday), and Canadian (Friday) CPI reports due out in the coming days.

– The June Australian labor market report (Thursday) is the only non-inflation ‘high’ rated data release due the rest of the week.

New Zealand is due to see a meaningful rise in Q2’18 inflation figures, lifted by the base effect from higheroil prices as well as a weaker trade-weighted New Zealand Dollar year-over-year. As a result, we’re looking for the Q2’18 New Zealand CPI figure to come in at +1.6% from +1.1% (y/y), the first rebound in three quarters. Nevertheless, inflation is due to remain below the RBNZ’s medium-term target of +2%,leaving little opportunity for 2018 rate hike expectations to rebound in a meaningful way. Currently, rates markets are not pricing in any RBNZ policy tightening in 2018; instead, a 10% chance of a 25-bps rate cut is priced-in for December 2018.

A consensus forecasts are calling to see inflation having increased by +0.2% from +0.4% (m/m) and by +2.6% from +2.4% (y/y). Core CPI is expected to have stayed on holdat +2.1% unch (y/y). The report is expected to show the first tick higher in headline inflation since November 2017 (when it moved from +3.0% to +3.1% (y/y)). Now that Bank of England policymakers are embracing the point of view that the Q1’18 growth slowdown was transitory, signs are pointing to a 25-bps rate hike in August. According to overnight index swaps, rates markets are pricing-in 91% chance of a hike next month. As such, given the limited upside in pricing in a hike, a miss could leave a bigger impact on GBP-crosses than a beat.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES SURGE

The prices have surged higher due to support from some large investors and the improvement of fundamentals in the market.
The BTC prices have got a boost over the last 24 hours and now the bulls are beginning to look quite threatening. The prices have been buoyant over the last week or so when compared to the previous weeks and over the last week, we have seen the prices make a move to push through the $6800 region a couple of times as well. They have been rejected so far but the point to note here is that the correction following the rejection has been pretty slow and shallow and the rebound has been quick and strong which shows that the bulls are slowly beginning to take control of the market. But the prices are still below the important resistance region of $6800 and this region is going to witness a huge battle between the bulls and the bears for control.
BTC Prices Looking to Break Range
The push higher has come due to some strong buying from some large investors and also with the reports of the entry of some large investors into the crypto market. We also saw that the tie taken for mining between 2 blocks of BTC took almost an hour and this has led to a slowdown in the mining and with the supply getting limited, the natural consequence of that is the fact that the prices have to move up and this is what we saw yesterday. But though the prices have risen, as long as there is no breakout from the range, the bears continue to be in control and the bulls have to do a lot more to take control but we are going to see soe interesting price action ahead.
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GOLD PRICES MAY FALL FURTHER AFTER HITTING ONE-YEAR LOW

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices hit 1-year low after hawkish comments from Fed’s Powell
Day 2 of Powell testimony, Fed Beige Book may sustain down move
Crude oil prices may extend drop if EIA inventory data echoes API print
Gold prices sank as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed the US Dollar higher (as expected), undermining the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. He argued that despite recent worries about trade tensions, the economy remains in good shape and the best path forward continues to be a gradual increase in interest rates.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to edge lower following Monday’s sharp selloff. That move came amid reports that Saudi Arabia was planning to increase exports to Asia while speculation that President Trump might release some of the US’ strategic reserves continued.

The latest round of weakness comes after legislation allowing the US government to sue OPEC for “price-fixing” was introduced in the Senate. Separately, the weekly set of inventory flow figures from API showed stockpiles added 629k barrels last week.
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BITCOIN – THE BULLS ARE BACK!

Bitcoin gives up early gains as investors lock in profits, though the losses are not large enough to pin back any hopes of further gains later in the day.
Bitcoin rallied 5.59% on Monday, following on from the weekend gains, to end the day at $6,702.3.

A particularly range bound start to the day saw Bitcoin’s intraday low $6,327.1 hold well above the day’s first major support level at $6,255.33, the early moves a consolidation of the weekend’s gains, before a mid-morning broad based cryptomarket rally saw Bitcoin surge through the day’s major resistance levels to an intraday high $6,750 before easing back late in the day.

Following 6-consecutive’s of falling well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, selling pressure was tested late in the day, with Bitcoin’s day end hold at $6,700 levels for only 3rd time this month providing some hope for the Bitcoin bulls of a bearish trend reversal forming.

Holding above the day’s major resistance levels was also a positive sign for Bitcoin and the broader markets, with the daylong rally coming off the back of news that Warren Buffet’s Blackrock was taking a closer look at a possible move into the crypto space, Blackrock’s crypto team needing to look closer as more institutional money heads for the cryptomarket.
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GBP/USD PRICE FORECAST – BRITISH POUND FALLS THROUGH SUPPORT

The British pound fell during the trading session on Tuesday, due to suggestions that perhaps the UK was going to leave the EU customs union without a deal. At this point, it looks as if the market is trying to find whether there is enough support just below the 1.32 level to continue the recent bullishness.
The British pound fell mid-day on Tuesday, slicing through the 1.32 level to show signs of weakness again. However, I think there’s even more support at the 1.31 level underneath to keep the market afloat. Overall, I think that the market continues to be very noisy, mainly because we are still not very sure how the whole Brexit thing is going to play out. Because of this, keep in mind that there will be headlines occasionally that will cause issues going forward. I do think that eventually the British pound turns around, but right now we are obviously in the throes of overreaction to every little rumor, so therefore the British pound is one of the most difficult currencies trade right now.

If we can turn around and break above the 1.32 level, I think that we would probably rally back towards the 1.33 level again. However, I would be cautious about buying this market until we break above that level on a daily close. Alternately, if we do continue to grind lower I think it would be very difficult to write down below the 1.31 handle, which of course is massive support. I think that would be a nice buying opportunity based upon value, unless things deteriorate rapidly. Obviously, the US dollar is one of the strongest currencies in the world, but I think playing these couple of levels makes the most sense as things are so erratic in cable.
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EUR/USD PRICE FORECAST – EURO FALLS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY

The Euro fell hard to kick off the Wednesday session, reaching down to the 1.16 level as the US dollar continues to strengthen overall. With a general “risk off” attitude, the market is testing significant support in the form of a large come around, psychologically significant number as I record this.
Looking at the charts, you can see that we have most certainly seen a lot of selling pressure as of late. However, I do see some demand around the 1.16 level, so bounce could be coming. Otherwise, if we break down below the 1.1580 level, it’s likely that we will go lower from here to test the 1.15 level, an area that is much more supportive. Right now, it certainly looks bearish but there is reason to think that there should be significant interest in this region. If that’s going to be the case, abounds cannot be ruled out.
I think the one thing you can count on is volatility, which seems to be picking up overall. I think that if we break down below the 1.15 level, the Euro could fall apart rather rapidly. While the interest rate differential does favor the US dollar, eventually value hunters will come into play, and pick this pair up again. I do not think that we will break down below the 1.15 level, but if we did, at that point you would have to become aggressively short of a currency that was breaking down drastically. At that point in time, I would anticipate a move to the 1.13 handle, and then possibly even the 1.10 level, an area that was inconceivable just two weeks ago. Rallies at this point will struggle near the 1.1650 handle. A break above there opens the door to the 1.1745 level.
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AUD/USD SOARS AFTER JOBS DATA EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS, EYES CPI NEXT

TALKING POINTS FOR AUD/USD TRADING:
Australian Dollar strengthened against US Dollar after positive employment data
2-Year bond yields rose, but the RBA may still keep rates at their all-time low
Sentiment-linked AUD remains vulnerable in the wake of possible US auto tariffs.
The Australian Dollar appreciated against its US counterpart following the release of high-performing local jobs and employment data. The Australian economy added 50.9k jobs, a significant increase from economists’ forecasts of an additional 16.5k jobs and May’s 12.0k jobs. Meanwhile, June’s unemployment rate held in line with prior and estimate reports at 5.4% and the participation rate increased slightly to 65.7% from both prior and estimate values of 65.5%.
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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST – BTC PRICES STEADY

The prices have been consolidating and ranging but the bulls should be encouraged by the gains that have been ade over the last few days.
The BTC prices continued to consolidate and range below the $7500 region which is something that was expected considering the breakout that we had seen during the middle of the week. Generally a breakout is followed by consolidation and then a correction back towards the highs of the range that had a breakout and we now await and see whether the correction happens. So far, it has not happened and it remains to be seen whether the correction would happen or whether the prices would continue to move higher after the consolidation phase is over. The bulls have established control and they should be happy now that they have been able to hold on to their gains over the past 2 days.
BTC Prices Holds on to Gains
This means that the breakout could be here to stay and it in turn would give a lot of confidence for those traders and the investors who are on the sidelines. It should also make the short sellers think twice before trying to short the market again and all this points to the continued bullishness in the markets over the short and medium term as well. The big investors, funds and the banks continue to queue up to enter the crypto market and also use the underlying blockchain technology to improve their infrastructure and the way that they do the transactions and all this points to a strong market in the future.
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JAPANESE YEN STEADY AFTER CPI DATA, LOOKS NEXT TO TRADE WAR RISK

TALKING POINTS:
Japanese Yen looks past mostly in-line local inflation data in favor of sentiment
National CPI is still well under the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target
Yen may rise as trade war tensions may increase risk aversion
The Japanese Yen started Friday’s trading session only slightly affected by the release of local inflation data, holding steady against its US counterpart as anticipated. June’s national CPI was 0.7%, lower than economists’ forecasts of 0.8% and in line with May’s result. The gauge excluding fresh food matched forecasts, clocking in at 0.8%, a slight uptick from the prior 0.7%. The one further excluding energy was 0.2%, lower than both the 0.4% expected and 0.3%prior.
Despite the narrow disappointment, the Yen barely moved as the Bank of Japan is unlikely to see the data as a reason to consider a change in monetary policy. Japanese inflation has been consistently below the central bank’s “sustainable two-percent inflation” target. In addition, the BOJ is currently engaged in a large-scale quantitative and qualitative easing program in order to nudge CPI up.
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BITCOIN – THE BULLS ARE IN CONTROL, AS BITCOIN EXTENDS ITS GAINS

Another positive move by Bitcoin on Saturday saw weekly gains extended, as the bulls look to round off a solid week.
Bitcoin gained 0.96% on Saturday, partially reversing the week’s only loss on Friday, to end the day at $7,403.4, with Bitcoin up 16.64% for the current week.

A start of the day slide to an intraday low $7,221 saw Bitcoin call on support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,230 to avoid heavier losses and a resumption of the extended bearish trend that had been formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.

Bitcoin recovered through to a mid-morning $7,356.2 high that fell short of the first major resistance level at $7,587.63, before pulling back to test support at $7,300 through the late morning.

An afternoon rally saw Bitcoin break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level once more, easing immediate concerns of a tumble and a reversal of the near-term bullish trend, formed back at 24th June’s swing lo $5,755.

Bitcoin stuck an intraday high $7,459 in the late afternoon and, while Bitcoin fell short of testing the day’s first major resistance level at $7,587.63, moving back through to $7,400 levels was key for the Bitcoin bulls, a pullback through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,230 likely to see Bitcoin back at sub-$7,000 levels.

There was no particularly material news driving Bitcoin and the broader market on Saturday, with the moves in recent days giving investors some comfort with the knowledge that support levels are playing a role in Bitcoin’s recovery, which is in contrast to some of the majors that have pulled back below key levels hit in the early part of the week.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.15% to $7,392.5 in what’s been a choppy start to the day, Bitcoin pulling back to a start of the day low $7,329.1 before a bounce back to an early morning $7,486.9 high, the early morning moves leaving the first major support level at $7,263.27 and first major resistance level at $7,501.27 untested through the early hours.
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GOLD PRICE FUTURES (GC) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – TRADING ON WEAK SIDE OF LONG-TERM FIB LEVEL AT $1250.00

Based on last week’s close at $1240.40, the direction of the December Comex Gold this week will be determined by trader reaction to the long-term, uptrending Gann angle at $1245.00.
Gold futures finished lower last week after hitting its lowest level since the week-ending January 13, 2017.

December Comex Gold futures settled at $1240.40, down $11.50 or -0.92%.

The price action was primarily driven by the movement in the U.S. Dollar. The Greenback was pushed higher by hawkish testimony before Congress by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday then driven lower on Thursday and Friday when President Trump criticized the Fed for raising interest rates.

This news helped drive gold in two directions at times last week.
Weekly Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed when sellers took out the bottom at $1233.80. A trade through $1221.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend with the next major target coming in at $1162.00.

The main range is $1162.00 to $1392.30. Its retracement zone at $1250.00 to $1277.20 is controlling the direction of the gold market.
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BITCOIN – THE BULLS ARE GETTING HUNGRY FOR MORE

Bitcoin is on the move early, following last week’s double digit gains, with the bulls now targeting $8,000 levels. We’ve been here before…
Bitcoin slipped by just 0.09% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 0.96% gain, to end the week up 16.54% to $7,396.8.

It was a choppy start to the day, Bitcoin pulling back to a start of the day intraday low $7,329.1 before a move through to a morning high $7,486.9 in the early hours, with a more extended run kicking off in the late morning.

Off the back of a slide back to $7,300 levels, the late morning recovery saw Bitcoin break through the first major resistance level at $7,501.27 to a late in the day intraday high $7,575, before a broad based market sell-off saw Bitcoin pullback to sub-$7,400 levels by the day’s end.

In spite of the choppy day that left Bitcoin in the red, the near-term bullish trend remained intact, with the week’s gains seeing Bitcoin avoiding a slide through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,230 to resume the extended bearish trend, formed back at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.
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GOLD PRICE FORECAST – QUITE SESSION TO START THE WEEK

Gold markets did very little during the trading session on Monday, hanging about the $1228 level. This is an area that has a lot of interest attached to it, so it makes sense that we will see a lot of volatility. However, recently we have broken above a minor resistance area, so expect a lot of back and forth trading as we try to work things out.
The Gold markets drifted a bit lower during the trading session on Monday, looking at the $1228 level for support. There is plenty of resistance around the $1225 level that has recently been broken, so it should now, at least in theory, offer a bit of support. However, if we break down below that level we could continue to go much lower. At this point, even if we rally from here, I suspect that there is a lot of supply near the $1240 level, so I think it will be difficult to break above that. We have been in a downtrend, and it’s likely that we could continue to see that as the overall attitude.Above there, I think that the $1250 level is even more resistance, and I think that if we were to go looking towards that level, you can probably count on a lot of selling pressure. Longer-term, I do think that investors are looking to pick up gold at these low levels, but that’s probably best to be thought of in physical terms, as the leverage could be very dangerous to hang onto. Shorter-term traders are looking for reasons to sell, but as I stated previously, the area just below could offer a bit of a bounce, giving us an opportunity to sell at higher levels if you are patient enough.
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AUD/USD OUTLOOK HINGES ON AUSTRALIA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS
AUD/USD may face range-bound conditions over the remainder of the month amid the failed attempt to break the July-low (0.7311), but fresh data prints coming out Australia may shift the near-term outlook for the exchange rate as the headline reading for inflation is expected to pick up in the second-quarter of 2018.
Exchange rate as the headline reading for inflation is expected to pick up in the second-quarter of 2018.

AUD/USD OUTLOOK HINGES ON AUSTRALIA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)
Updates to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may boost the appeal of the Australian dollar as the headline reading is expected to approach the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target of 2-3%, and signs of heightening price pressures may put pressure on the central bank to lift the official cash rate (OCR) off of the record-low as ‘recent data on the Australian economy continue to be consistent with the Bank’s central forecast for GDP growth to average a bit above 3 per cent in 2018 and 2019.’
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BITCOIN HITS $8000 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TWO MONTH

Over the last 24 hours, BTC added more than 4% and overcame an important psychological level of $8,000, which sets optimists on the proximity of the new milestone of $10,000.
Cryptomarket actively replaces altcoins in portfolios with the Bitcoin. Over the last 24 hours, BTC added more than 4% and overcame an important psychological level of $8,000, which sets optimists on the proximity of the new milestone of $10,000. Bitcoin was trading at $8189 at the time of writing.
The top 10 coins for capitalizations show either a decrease or a slight increase from + 1.5% for Ethereum (ETH) to -52% for the Bitcoin Diamond (BCD), according to CoinMarketCap.
The increase in the demand for the Bitcoin (BTC) coincides with the boost for daily volumes traded by 60% from $3.5 billion on Monday to $5.6 billion today. Investors bet for the market warming up with institutional money, as well as for the creation of investment products that would lead the demand for the Bitcoin (BTC) to a new mainstream level.
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STRONG AUSTRALIA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) TO FUEL AUD/USD REBOUND

TRADING THE NEWS: AUSTRALIA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)
Updates to Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may fuel the recent rebound in AUD/USD as the headline reading for inflation is projected to increase to 2.2% from 1.9% per annum in the first-quarter of 2018.
The Australian dollar may exhibit a more bullish behavior over the remainder of the month should the data prints put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy, and the central bank may start to change its tune in the second-half of the year as inflation approaches the central bank’s target of 2-3%.
In turn, Governor Philip Lowe & Co. may prepare Australian households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs at the next meeting on August 7, but another below-forecast CPI print may drag on the Australian dollar as it encourages the RBA to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low throughout 2018.Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady a 1.9% for the second straight quarter, while the core rate of inflation unexpectedly climbed to 1.9% from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017. With price growth still holding below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target of 2-3%, signs of subdued price growth may encourage the central bank to retain the record-low cash rate throughout 2018 as ‘inflation is low and is likely to remain so for some time, reflecting low growth in labour costs and strong competition in retailing.’
The initial dip in the Australian dollar was short-lived, with AUD/USD climbing back above the 0.7600 handle to end the day at 0.7603.
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USD/JPY PRICE FORECAST – DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST YEN

The US dollar fell a bit during the trading session on Tuesday against the Japanese yen, reaching towards the ¥111 level. The market has a significant uptrend line just below though, so I think it’s only a matter time before the buyers come in to pick up a bit of value.
The US dollar started out the day soft on Tuesday, reaching down towards the ¥111 level where the buyers were found. There is also an uptrend line underneath that should offer support, so I think it’s only a matter time before we get some type of rally. This will be especially true if we get more of a “risk on” move, which I think is coming. Obviously, the pair has been sold off rather drastically recently, but I think it’s been overdone. At the very least I would anticipate some type of bounce.
The US dollar has taken a bit of a beating against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday, but I think it’s only a matter time before things turn around and rally again due to the uptrend line underneath than the psychological importance of the ¥111 region. Because of that, I think that the ¥111.50 level will be targeted initially, which was the most recent high. If we can break above there, then the market will more than likely go looking towards the ¥112 level, and then the ¥112.50 level.
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USD/JPY PRICE FORECAST – US DOLLAR TRYING TO FIND BASE AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

The US dollar drifted a bit lower to open the Wednesday session, as we are looking at support below based upon an uptrend line, and of course the psychologically important ¥111 level. I believe at this point we are starting to see value hunters come back into the marketplace, offering an opportunity to pick up the US dollar “on the cheap.”
The US dollar has dropped a bit to start out the session on Wednesday but has an uptrend line just below to offer a significant amount of support. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the ¥112 level. Overall, I believe that the market could perhaps go looking towards the ¥113 level after that. If we break down below the uptrend line, then we are probably looking at a move towards the ¥110 level.The US dollar has been punished a bit due to the currency war, but quite frankly in the end I think that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the US dollar as the Federal Reserve is known to have a handful of interest rate hikes on the table, while the Bank of Japan is on the sidelines, and nowhere near tightening monetary policy.
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BITCOIN – $8,000 TICK, NEXT!

A choppy start to the day, but with Bitcoin avoiding an early sell-off, it’s a day of consolidation at worst.
Bitcoin jumped by 8.52% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 4.33% gain and last week’s 16.5% rally, to end the day at $8,376.2.
It was onwards and upwards throughout the day, with barely any red on the chart, as Bitcoin moved from a start of a day intraday low $7,690 through the day’s first major resistance level at $7,901.2 and second major resistance level at $8,083.6 to a late in the day intraday high and new swing hi $8,506.7, coming within reach of the third major resistance level at $8,529.6 before easing back to $8,300 levels.
The moves through the day left little doubt of Bitcoin’s bearish trend reversal, with the near-term bullish trend having been formed at 24th June’s swing lo $5,755
For the Bitcoin Bulls, the first part of the recovery mission is complete, with Bitcoin gaining strong momentum in the run through to $8,000 levels, side lined investors jumping in on hopes of a move back through to $10,000, while investors exposed to altcoins also moved back into Bitcoin that has outperformed the likes of Bitcoin Cash and left Litecoin and Ripple’s XRP in the dust, the Bitcoin dominance reflecting the shift in sentiment since May’s dip.
On the news wires, talk of the SEC bringing the Bitcoin ETF debate back to the table provided support through the start of the week, while last week’s talk of the cryptomarket posing no threat to global financial stability, as outlined by the FSB and regulators, eased market fears of a heavy handed set of new rules and regs that could cripple the market, which had kicked off the Bitcoin rebound that led to Bitcoin’s 16.5% gain last week.
While the SEC is bringing the ETF decision back to the table, there’s no guarantee that any progress will be made, which does leave Bitcoin exposed and then there are the G20 rules and regs to consider once they roll out, which are expected to be market friendly, but could be quite the opposite.
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CRUDE OIL, GOLD PRICES MAY RETREAT AS DOVISH ECB BOOSTS US DOLLAR

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:
Crude oil prices rise as EIA reports dramatic inventory drawdown
Gold prices swing to range top courtesy of Trump/Junker meeting
Dovish ECB might boost US Dollar, weighing on commodity prices
Crude oil prices shot higher as EIA inventory data showed stockpiles shed 6.15 million barrels last week, an outflow nearly three times larger than the projected 2.23 barrel draw. The outcome likewise dwarfed the larger 3.16 million barrel decrease signaled in a private-sector estimate from API.

Gold prices swung higher as the US Dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the standby anti-fiat alternative. The greenback drifted lower as traders reduced exposure ahead of the closely watched meeting between US and European Commission presidents Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Junker, respectively.
COMMODITIES MAY FALL AS DOVISH ECB BOOSTS US DOLLAR

Looking ahead, the knock-on influence of the ECB monetary policy announcement may emerge as defining for near-term price action. The central bank has already put the path of QE asset purchases on autopilot through year-end but traders will want guidance on when rates will begin to rise thereafter.
ECB President Mario Draghi will almost certainly face a barrage of questions to this end at the press conference following the announcement. Earlier messaging suggested a hike won’t come at least until the end of summer 2019. As of now, market pricing has written off an increase until the fourth quarter.
Eurozone economic news-flow has cautiously improved in recent weeks, producing a cautious hawkish shift in expectations. The likelihood of an October hike has increased from 58.7 to 80 percent since mid-June. A call for restraint from the ever-cautious Mr Draghi might cool such optimism however.
If this proves to be the case, the bellwether EUR/USD exchange rate might drop. Its unrivaled liquidity might mean that such a move echoes as broader-based US Dollar strength. Most commodity prices would face de-facto selling pressure in such a scenario because they are priced in terms of the US unit on global markets.
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GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – GOLD SLIPS FOLLOWING ECB DECISION

Gold prices edged lower after running into resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,230, following the ECB meeting where the central bank left rates unchanged and said stimulus is still needed. The ECB was slightly more confident on growth and inflation and is poised to end its quantitative easing program in December and hold rates steady until the summer of 2019. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the July lows at 1,211 and then the July 2017 lows at 1,204. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. Softer than expected U.S. Durable goods data helped capped the greenback, which has placed a floor under gold prices.
ECB left policy rates on hold and confirmed the guidance on QE
ECB left policy rates on hold and confirmed the guidance on QE, with net asset purchases expected to be reduced from October and phased out at the end of December this year. Rates are still expected to remain unchanged at least through the summer of 2019, so at least in the initial statement no clarification on whether that means until the end of September next year.
ECB slightly more confident on growth, inflation. Draghi said the economy is proceeding along a solid, broad based growth path, even though uncertainties, especially related to trade, remain prominent. Significant monetary stimulus remains necessary and this will be provided by the remaining net asset purchases and re-investments and the ECB remains ready to adjust all instruments if needed. Latest data stabilized according to Draghi and point to ongoing growth, with the ECB’s policy continuing to underpin domestic demand.
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BITCOIN – A BIG FEW DAYS FOR THE BULLS TO GET THROUGH

Sub-$8,200 support has kept Bitcoin at bay, but another pullback to $8,100 levels could see the week’s gains at risk. It’s a key part of the week.
Bitcoin fell by 2.46% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesday’s 8.52% gain, to end the day at $8,183.1.
In a relatively choppy start to the day, Bitcoin moved through to a start of the day intraday high $8,488.1, coming up short of the first major resistance level at $8,691.93 and Tuesday’s $8,506.7 high, before a mid-morning reversal saw Bitcoin slide through to a mid-afternoon intraday low $8,073.
A late in the day recovery saved Bitcoin from heavier losses on the day, which would have seen Bitcoin slide back to sub-$8,000 levels to bring the first major support level at 7,857.23 and, more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 into play.
For the Bitcoin bulls, Wednesday’s pullback was more of a consolidation than a shift in sentiment, with Bitcoin finding the necessary support through the day to avoid sub-$8,000 levels.
In spite of the day’s loss, the near-term bullish trend formed at 24th June’s swing lo $5,755 remained intact, with Bitcoin managing to steer clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857, though Bitcoin will need to break back through Tuesday’s swing hi $8,506.7 to avoid another reversal similar to the one seen back in early May, where a bullish trend had seen Bitcoin climb to $9,999 before an extended bearish trend formed and continued through to late June.
There was no particularly negative news hitting the news wires to pin Bitcoin back on the day, with investors continuing to lock in profits, though news of the SEC delaying its Bitcoin ETF review to late September will have dampened market spirits, investors now having to wait to discover whether the anticipated influx of capital will materialise and with a wait of almost 2-months, a lot can happen between now and then in the world of Bitcoin.
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GOLD PRICES MAY DROP AS US GDP BOOSTS FED OUTLOOK, DOLLAR

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices fall as dovish ECB translates into stronger US Dollar
Crude oil prices edge up on inventory data, Saudi shipment halt
US GDP data might keep gold under pressure, oil impact unclear
Gold prices turned lower as the US Dollar returned to the offensive, tarnishing the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. An early retracement of the prior day’s downswing was compounded by a dovish ECB policy announcement, which sank EUR/USD and echoed as broader support for the greenback (as expected).
Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to edge higher, finding continued support in an impressive set of EIA inventory figures. News that Saudi Arabia suspended shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Houthi attacks on two of its tankers probably helped as well.
GOLD PRICES VULNERABLE AS US GDP DATA BOOSTS DOLLAR
The spotlight now turns to US GDP data. Economists expect to see that the annualized growth rate ticked up to 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the highest in almost four years. A strong result may boost bets on a fourth Fed rate hike in 2018. Its probability is now priced in at 57.8 percent.
The US Dollar is likely to extend gains in this scenario, weighing on gold prices. The likely response from crude oil is clouded however. A pickup in growth bodes well for cycle-sensitive commodities but USDstrength applies de-facto downside pressure. Time will tell which catalyst proves to be more potent.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices remain locked in a narrow range above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1217.29. A daily close below this boundary exposes the 50% levelat 1202.28. Alternatively, a move above support-turned-resistance at 1236.66 targets the 1260.80-66.44 area.
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EUR/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – LOOKING FOR LOW VOLUME, RANGEBOUND TRADE

Based on the early trade at 1.1651, the direction of the EUR/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1663. If volume drops ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday, we could see a rangebound trade for a couple of days between 1.1680 and 1.1617.
The Euro is treading water against the U.S. Dollar early Monday in what could become a theme this week until the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy statement on Wednesday. There are no major economic reports this week from the Euro Zone. On Tuesday, investors will get the opportunity to react to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, before the Fed announcement, the U.S. will release data from ADP on private sector jobs and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. The clash between the major and minor trends is what is helping to give the EUR/USD a sideways look.
A trade through 1.1751 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 1.1575 will change the main trend to down.
The minor trend is down. Today’s earlier rally helped make 1.1621 a new minor bottom.
Based on the current price at 1.1651, support is a minor Fib level at 1.1642 and a major Fib level at 1.1617. Resistance is a minor 50% level at 1.1663, and a major 50% level at 1.1680.
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BITCOIN FACES DIFFICULTIES WITH GROWTH OVER 8K

This week, many market players have been betting that the market has passed the bottom and is moving towards highs at $20K in anticipation of new projects, the launch of ETF’s and institutional money. But it may well be that the increase observed in July is all that the cryptomarket could demonstrate in the upcoming months.
The Bitcoin course (BTC) fell below $8.000 on the news that the US SEC had rejected the second Winklevoss twins’ attempt to launch Bitcoin ETF, which negatively affected the prospects of all similar projects. The expectation that the regulator would allow ETF launches have been the main growth driver in recent weeks, and now the market can face a serious rollback.
As of Sunday morning, the benchmark cryptocurrency lost 0.37%% trades slightly above $8100 after a drop below $8000 on Thursday and Friday. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell from $302 bln. to $296 bln. The record number of bitcoin contracts on CME makes cryptocurrency vulnerable if traders start to wind down their positions.
This week, many market players have been betting that the market has passed the bottom and is moving towards highs at $20K in anticipation of new projects, the launch of ETF’s and institutional money. But it may well be that the increase observed in July is all that the cryptomarket could demonstrate in the upcoming months.
In addition to the difficulties of regulation, security of the sector remains the Achilles heel. On the first working day of the decentralized crypto exchange DEX Waves the hackers carried out a successful attack, the funds were not stolen, but users data could leak. Such hackers attacks inhibit the positive evaluation of the regulators, although, in the end, most of the problems in the code will be eliminated, and then it will be possible to expect that crypto assets could become a real mainstream.
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JAPANESE YEN LOOKS PAST RETAIL TRADE DATA, BOJ AND FED IN FOCUS

TALKING POINTS – BOJ, YEN, FED, FOMC:
Yen did not significantly react to local retail sales data
Fed rate hikes may be a key factor altering BOJ monetary policy
FOMC meeting on August 1 likely to signal hawkish stance
The Japanese Yen did not have any significant price volatility against its US counterpart as local Retail Trade data showed sales rose 1.8 percent year-on-year in June, softly exceeding the 1.7 percent forecast. The market’s response to the new data indicates that other economic factors may play a more significant role in influencing the Yen’s price movement.
The markets are now eyeing the upcomingannouncements by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that will include their Outlook Report, rate decision, Monetary Policy Statement, and 10-year bond yield target. Additionally, the FOMC is scheduled for a rate decision on August 1st.
The Bank of Japan may signal an upcoming change in policy as commercial bank profitability becomes a concern, and the Fed may dial up hawkish rhetoric in response to jawboning from US President Trump. If that boosts future rate hike bets, it mayput further pressure on the BOJ to reform its policy stance.
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NZD/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – MOVE OVER .6833 COULD FUEL RALLY INTO .6851

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at .6833 and the 50% level at .6805. The main range is .6922 to .6688. Its retracement zone at .6805 to .6833 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.
The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower early Tuesday. Traders are reacting to weaker-than-expected domestic data and a disappointing manufacturing report from China.
In New Zealand, Building Consents fell 7.6% versus a 6.9% previous report. ANZ Business Confidence was -44.9. Last month the report was -39.0.
In China, factory activity was slightly lower than expected in July, with the official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) coming in at 51.2. The Chinese manufacturing PMI had been forecast to fall to 51.3 in July from 51.5 in June, according to a poll of economists by Reuters. China’s official services PMI also fell in July. The report showed a reading of 54.0 from 55.0 in June.
New Zealand Dollar traders are now waiting for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at .6851 on July 26. A trade through .6851 will negate the reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.
The minor trend is down. This move also turned momentum down. The minor trend will reverse back to up on a trade through .6851. A trade through .6762 will signal the return of sellers.
The main range is .6922 to .6688. Its retracement zone at .6805 to .6833 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.
The intermediate range is .6688 to .6859. Its 50% level at .6773 is support.
The short-term range is .6713 to .6851. Its Fibonacci level at .6766 is also support.
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BITCOIN BACK IN THE RED, WITH VOLATILITY TESTING THE BULLS

It’s another poor start to the day, with Bitcoin managing to steer clear of support levels early. Holding on to $8,100 levels will be key.
Bitcoin fell by 0.63% on Monday, following on from Sunday’s 0.17% loss, to end the day at $8,168.7.
A choppy start to the day saw Bitcoin recover from a fall through the first major support level at $8,125.57 to a morning low $8,065.1, bouncing back to an early intraday high $8,301.7, just short of the first major resistance level at $8,315.87.
Negative sentiment across the market weighed through the late morning and early afternoon, with Bitcoin sliding back through the first major support level at $8,125.57 and second major support level at $8,029.13 to an intraday low $7,861.2 before a late afternoon recovery.
The break back through the major support levels by the day’s end was certainly a positive, with Bitcoin also managing to steer clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 on the day, the moves affirming the near-term bullish trend that was formed back at 24th June’s swing lo $5,755.
While the 2nd half of the day recovery saved Bitcoin and the broader market from some quite heavy losses, Bitcoin’s recent string of weekly gains have come in spite of some choppy moves and the start of the week will raise some concerns over what lies ahead, with $8,200 continuing to be a key level, though the positive for the Bitcoin bulls was the level of support at sub-$8,000 levels.
On the news front, there was no particularly negative news to cause the slide to sub-$8,000 levels, with investors continuing to fret over whether the SEC will approve any Bitcoin ETFs to support the much needed inflow of institutional money.
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BITCOIN’S RALLY STALLED BELOW $8000, CRYPTOS ARE BACK IN RED

In the middle of the previous week the rally got stuck near $8300 level and since then the Bitcoin’s price has slowly decreased.
Last week it became obvious that the Bitcoin had big difficulties with further growth above $8000. During the weekend, it held above $8,200 mark, but yesterday it suddenly fell below $7900. Most likely, it was “a belated reaction” on SEC refusal to launch the Bitcoin ETF. Nevertheless, shortly after this rollback new buyers entered the market. As a result, trading volumes increased by 22% and the price went back to the latest levels. Market participants evaluated this movement as a large investors’ attempt to prevent the market from the deeper correction.
After a recovery in the past week, the crypto market is back in the red with Ethereum, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple and Dash fall more than 5%.
At the moment technical analysis is not on a bull side. In the middle of the previous week the rally got stuck near $8300 level and since then the Bitcoin’s price has slowly decreased. RSI indicates sell signals due to its coming back again to the levels below 70 after its peaks a week earlier. This is a bear signal, which could be reinforced in case if the price drops below $7850, recent lows. Then, it might be a sell-off signal not only for the technical analysis fans but also for ordinary investors.
The desperate desire of the enthusiasts to see a new rally outweighs the fundamental basis for the growth. It is very likely that this desire is heated by Tether and Bitfinex exchange speculations. Taking into account the absence of positive drivers, the market is under the threat of correction.
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DOLLAR HIGHER AFTER TRUMP ADMINISTRATION REOPENS TALKS WITH CHINA

The US dollar rose on Tuesday after American inflation data was in line with expectations and consumer confidence came out higher than forecasted. The U.S. Federal Reserve wraps up its two day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday at 2:00 pm EDT. The market is not anticipating a major change from the language on the rate statement or the interest rate itself. The September Fed meeting has been priced in for another rate hike as the Fed continues its path toward monetary policy normalization. The private payrolls report from the ADP is expected to show a gain of more than 180,000 jobs and serve as the preamble to the biggest indicator release in the market the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday.
Dollar Rebounds Ahead of FOMC
The EUR/USD fell on Tuesday. The single currency is trading at 1.1689 after breaking above the 1.17 price level on positive European indicator releases during the European session. The USD started gaining traction with the release of inflation data and higher consumer confidence numbers but it was the reports that the US and China are trying to meet to discuss trade that boosted the currency. Private conversation are said to be ongoing with a goal of having ministerial meetings that have been on hold since the trade war rhetoric escalated.monetary policy on Wednesday and without a press conference the focus will be on the language changes in the statement. The Fed has already hiked twice in 2018 and policy members have talked about two more interest rates lift if the economy continues on its current growth path. President Trump has already commented that he is not a fan of the Fed’s decision to keep driving interest rates higher. Chair Powell has so far avoided commenting outside of the central bank’s mandate and this week there won’t be a chance for the financial press to seek his opinion on the matter of the Fed’s independence.
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USD/JPY STRENGTH SPUTTERS AS FED KEEPS KEY INTEREST RATE ON HOLD

JAPANESE YEN TALKING POINTS
The recent advance in USD/JPY sputters as the Federal Reserve keeps the benchmark interest rate on hold, but the fresh string of higher highs & lows may fuel the recent advance in the exchange rate as it breaks out of a narrow range.
The July-high (113.18) remains on the radar following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda & Co. lower the inflation forecast, and the dovish forward-guidance for monetary policy may keep USD/JPY afloat as the central bank remains in no rush to abandon the Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control.In turn, market participants appear to be gearings up for four rate-hikes in 2018 as Fed Fund Futures continue to reflect expectations for a move in September and December, and the FOMC’s hiking-cycle may keep the U.S. dollar bid over the coming months especially as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.
With that said, recent price action fosters a constructive outlook for USD/JPY as it carves a series of higher highs & lows after breaking out of a narrow range, and the exchange rate may make a more meaningful attempt to test the July-high (113.18) going into the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as the economy is anticipated to add 192K jobs in July.
The Federal Reserve on the other hand appears to be on track to implement higher borrowing-costs even though the central bank keeps the benchmark interest rate on hold in August, and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for a less-accommodative stance as ‘the Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.’
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BITCOIN – THE BEARS ARE COMING TO TOWN

Bitcoin’s hit on Tuesday raises the possibility of a resumption to the bearish trend that saw Bitcoin down at $5,000 levels. Regulatory risk is the key.
Bitcoin tumbled by 5.35% on Tuesday, following a 0.63% fall on Monday, to end the day at $7,741.1.
Playing catch up, following two days of minor losses relative to the broader market, Bitcoin slid from a start of the day intraday high $8,178.9 through the first major support level at $7,919.37 to an early afternoon intraday low $7,664.9, calling on support at the day’s second major support level at $7,670.03 before recovering to $7,700 levels by the day’s end.
While the near-term bullish trend remained intact, with Bitcoin managing to steer clear of the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,456, the pullback through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 and failure to break back through to $8,000 levels has raised the prospects of a resumption to the bearish trend formed back at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.
An anticipated roll out of rules and regulations across key jurisdictions continue to drive volatility across Bitcoin and the broader market, with the latest news being of the South Korean government clear intent to pass law as quickly as possible to beef up anti-money laundering policies and to introduce minimum standards on the security side that exchanges would need to meet in order to minimise the risk of theft.A delay to the G20 unified rules and regs to October will likely have led to the South Korean government’s sense of urgency, which raises the question on whether other jurisdictions will follow.
While it may be considered a positive for crypto exchanges to be forced to improve security levels and to also improve on KYC and anti-money laundering processes, the ability of the exchanges to meet the demands of governments and regulators continues to be a key issue, with increased scrutiny at the verification process another issue that the broader market continues to balk at.
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GOLD PRICES RISK FRESH 2018 LOWS AS RSI FLIRTS WITH OVERSOLD TERRITORY

GOLD TALKING POINTS
The recent rebound in gold continues to unravel, with prices for bullion at risk for fresh yearly lows as the bearish momentum from earlier this year appears to be reasserting itself.
GOLD PRICES RISK FRESH 2018 LOWS AS RSI FLIRTS WITH OVERSOLD TERRITORY
The price for bullion quickly approaches the July-low ($1211) following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the weakness may persist over the near-term as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. appear to be on track to deliver a rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in September.
Moreover, Fed Fund Futures suggest market participants are gearing up for four rate-hikes in 2018 as market participants anticipate a move in September and December, and the FOMC’s hiking-cycle may continue to dampen the appeal of gold as the ‘Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.’
At the same time, retail sentiment remains stretched as the IG Client Sentiment Report shows 87.3% of traders are still net-long gold even as the precious metal approaches the yearly low. The number of traders net-long is 4.7% higher than yesterday and 2.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.4% higher than yesterday and 12.2% lower from last week.
The persistent skew in retail positioning offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment especially as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserve the bearish trends from earlier this year, and the precious metal may now make a run at the July 2017-low ($1207) as the momentum indicator flirts with oversold territory.
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BITCOIN TURNING BEARISH, WITH THE BEARS EYEING SUB-$7,000

It’s getting bearish for Bitcoin, with the morning slide bringing sub-$7,000 levels into play should sentiment not shift through the early afternoon.
Bitcoin fell by 1.05% on Thursday, following on from Wednesday’s 1.7% decline, to end the day at 7,527, the moves through the day marking a 5th consecutive day in the red.
A choppy start to the day saw Bitcoin move through to an early morning intraday high $7,713 before pulling back to $7,600 levels, the day’s high falling short of the day’s first major resistance level at $7,761.73 and more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857.
Following a relatively range bound morning, Bitcoin finding support while the broader market saw red, a late morning reversal saw Bitcoin fall to a mid-afternoon intraday low $7,450, calling on support at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,456 before recovering to $7,500 levels late in the day, the day’s low steering clear of the first major support level at $7,445.83.
Bitcoin’s continued support at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,456 kept the near-term bullish trend intact through the week, though pressure has continued to build, with Bitcoin’s downward trend on the intraday highs reflected with a 2nd consecutive day of falling short of $8,000 levels.
Market sentiment towards an expected shift in the regulatory landscape continued to be the key driver on Thursday, with the SEC’s delay in a decision on Bitcoin ETFs to September and the G20’s delay in rolling out unified rule and regulations for the broader cryptomarket doing few favours in the week.
We can expect key jurisdictions to revisit existing rules and regulations and introduce interim measures as a stop gap to protect investor interests, with the cryptomarket unlikely to be a key priority for the G20 when considering the ongoing U.S – China trade war and other geo-political headwinds influencing the global economic outlook and the global financial markets.
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USD/CAD SOARS AFTER SAUDI ARABIA FREEZES TRADE WITH CANADA

TALKING POINTS FOR USD/CAD:
Canadian Dollar fell against its US counterpart early into Monday’s trading session
Hawkish BoC and increasing inflation helped the Loonie pare its losses
Housing and employment data releases later in the week may fuel downside momentum
The Canadian Dollar started Monday’s trading session sharply lower against its US counterpart after news of Saudi Arabia expelling the Canadian ambassador crossed wires. The Saudi Press Agency, the nation’s official news outlet, also announced that the country would freeze all new trade and investment deals with Canada. This move comes after Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland urged Saudi authorities over Twitter to release human rights activists from prison.
However, the currency pair’s upside momentum reversed throughout the Asia/Pacific trading hours. Negative impacts of the Saudi Arabian investment and trade embargo may be overshadowed by Canada’s higher inflation and better than expected economic growth. The BoC, which recently raised rates to 1.5% at their July meeting, has been increasingly hawkish and alluded to more increases this year.Looking ahead, the Loonie faces the release of important housing and employment data later this week. Although local unemployment rate is forecasted to decrease to 5.9% from the previous 6.0%, July’s net change in employment is expected to lower to 19.0k as opposed to June’s 31.8k. Monthly building permits are also expected to decrease by 1.2%, falling from 4.7% prior. These tempered expectations of Canadian economic growth, combined with economists’ forecasts of 2.9% for July’s y/y US CPI, could cause USD/CAD to surge in the coming days.
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AUD/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – AUGUST 6, 2018 FORECAST

Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% levels at .7397 and .7391. The AUD/USD will strengthen on a sustained move over .7397 and weaken on a sustained move under .7391.
The Australian Dollar is trading slightly lower early Monday. Volume is low because of the bank holiday in Australia. Later today, investors will get the opportunity to react to the MI Inflation Gauge and the ANZ Job Advertisements report. Early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its latest interest rate decision.
At 2330 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7395, down 0.0003 or -0.04%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A move through .7465 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through .7318 will change the main trend to down.
The minor trend is down. This trend indicator is controlling the momentum. A trade through .7442 will change the minor trend to up and shift momentum to the upside. A trade through .7348 will indicate the counter-trend selling is getting stronger.
The major 50% level at .7397 is controlling the longer-term direction of the AUD/USD.
The short-term range is .7318 to .7465. Its retracement zone is .7391 to .7373. This zone is support today.
Combining the two retracement zones makes .7397 to .7391 the key area to watch today.
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GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – GOLD CONSOLIDATES JUST ABOVE KEY SUPPORT

Gold prices continued to trade sideways, edging lower on Monday, as the dollar gained traction. This comes despite Friday’s weaker than expected U.S. employment report that disappointed on the headline number coming out at 157K as opposed to the markets estimate of 190K. Traders will now turn their attention to Friday’s U.S. CPI report which is expected to show an up tick to 2.7%. This coincides with Friday’s hourly earnings report, which shows wage inflation which also increased by 2.7% year over year. With oil prices on the move higher, headline inflation could continue to move higher during the balance of the summer due to increasing gasoline prices. The Chinese Yuan continued to decline versus the dollar closing near a 1-year low, making gold in Yuan more expensive. This could also continue to weigh on prices of the yellow metal. Geopolitical risk is also keeping gold buoyed, ahead of sanction on Iran which begin this week.
Gold is Consolidating Just Above Critical Support
Gold prices are poised to test trend line support which is a horizontal trend line that connects the lows in July 2017 to the lows in July 2018 and comes in near 1,204. A break of this level would generate a quick test of the March 2017 lows at 1,198. Target support after this would be the December 2016 lows at 1,120. Resistance on gold prices is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,219. Prices are oversold and could rebound. The fast stochastic, is printing a reading of 13, which is well below the oversold trigger level of 20 and could foreshadow a correction. The fast stochastic is also generating a crossover buy signal in oversold territory which is generally considered a buy signal. Momentum as reflected by the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is neutral as the index is printing near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation.
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BITCOIN HOLDS ON TO $7,000

Bitcoin’s on the move early, with $7,200 levels in play should Bitcoin avoid a pullback to sub-$7,000 levels in the first half of the day.
Bitcoin gained just 0.15% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 5.48% tumble, to end the week down 14.55% to $7,023.9.
Moves through the early part of the day saw Bitcoin continue to call on support at sub-$7,000 levels, with Bitcoin falling through the first major support level at $6,912.6 to an early morning intraday low $6,890 before recovering to $7,000 levels through the late morning.
The afternoon failed to deliver a weekend rally for the Bitcoin bulls, with a recovery from a second slide through the first major support level to an afternoon low $6,896.1 leaving Bitcoin relatively flat for the day and trailing the majors, not just on the day, but for the week.
While Bitcoin managed to hold above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 and hold on to $7,000, the extended bearish trend formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999 remained intact, the latest pullback from $8,000 levels seeing Bitcoin’s bullish trend reverse through the last week.On the day, the news wires were on the quieter side, providing much needed support to Bitcoin and the broader markets, though Sunday’s moves reflected investor sentiment and concerns over what lies ahead for the broader cryptomarket.
News of yet another fraudulent ICO in South Korea did little damage to sentiment across the broader market on Sunday, with the recent slide across the cryptos coming off the back of an expectation that the South Korean government will go ahead and roll out policies ahead of the G20’s delayed unified rules and regulations later in the year.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.84% to $7,084.8, upward momentum from Sunday afternoon continuing into the early hours of this morning, with Bitcoin moving through the first major resistance level at $7,112.6 to an intraday high $7,153.6 before easing back to sub-$7,100 levels.
A start of a day $7,020 low saw Bitcoin steer clear of the first major support level at $6,912.6 and more importantly continue to hold above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757.
For the day ahead, a move back through to $7,100 levels would bring the day’s first major resistance level at $7,112.6 and second major resistance level at $7,201.3 into play, though for Bitcoin to find strong support through the afternoon, a pullback to sub-$7,000 levels will need to be avoided.
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AUD/USD COULD YET RISE ON RBNZ WITH LOWE AND CHINA TRADE PASSED

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS: RBA, PHILIP LOWE, CHINA TRADE, RBNZ
Australian Dollar edged cautiously higher on Philip Lowe speech and Chinese trade
Ahead, a relatively dovish RBNZ monetary policy announcement could boost Aussie
AUD/USD remains in consolidation after recent push higher, eyeing February line.
The Australian Dollar edged cautiously higher as RBA’s Governor Philip Lowespoke. Just yesterday, the central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.50% as expected which marked the 2-year anniversary if its last adjustment. There, the Reserve Bank of Australiadowngraded near-term inflation expectations while simultaneously upgrading more outward looking estimates.
Mr. Lowe noted that we should expect inflation to rise and be close to 2.5% by 2020. He also reiterated that the next rate move would be up if the outlook ‘stays favorable’. But before RBA hawks could get excited, Lowe added that he still sees no strong case for a near-term monetary policy adjustment. With that in mind, rate hike bets seemed unaltered as Australian front-end government bond yields remained unchanged.
Even so, the Australian Dollar may have benefited from Chinese trade balance statistics which were released at the time of Lowe’s speech. In Dollar terms, net exports clocked in at $28.05b in July versus $38.92b expected. Meanwhile, imports rose 27.3% y/y versus 16.5% anticipated. Exports climbed 12.2% versus 10.0% seen. Keep in mind that this was the first month in which the US imposed tariffs on China imports.
The surge in imports could have positive knock-on effects for Australia’s economy given that China is their largest trading partner. Even so, the RBA remains patient before adjusting rates. Ahead, the Australian Dollar could benefit from Wednesday’s RBNZ monetary policy announcement. There, a relatively dovish central bank could hurt the New Zealand Dollar and boost AUD given that the latter is a substitute for it from a yield perspective.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 08/08/18

The cryptos are in free fall once more and if the ship doesn’t steady by late morning, there may well be more pain ahead.
Bitcoin Cash Slumps to mid-$600s
Bitcoin Cash tumbled by 4.92% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 2.61% fall, to end the day at $657.
A mid-morning rally saw Bitcoin Cash move back through to $700 levels, with an intraday high $713 before easing back, with the day’s first major resistance level at $712.5 pinning Bitcoin Cash back from any breakout in the early afternoon.
Bitcoin Cash slid through the late afternoon, a broad based news driven market sell-off pulling Bitcoin Cash through the first major support level at $673.7 and second major support level at $656.4 to an intraday low and new swing lo $645.6 before a partial recovery to $650 levels.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 4.51% as Tuesday’s late sell-off spilled into the early hours of this morning.
Bitcoin fell from a start of a day $657 high, through the first major support level at $630.07, to a new swing lo and morning low $626, the morning slide being seen across the broader market.
For the day ahead, a move back through the first major support level to $670 levels would support a recovery and bring the day’s first major resistance level at $698.47 into play, though with the negative sentiment weighing, we will expect major resistance levels to be left untested.
Failure to move back through $630 to $670 levels by the early afternoon could see Bitcoin Cash taken another hit later in the day, the day’s second major support level at $603.13 in play, with any pullback to sub-$610 levels bringing sub-$600 levels into play.
Litecoin Hit Hard
Litecoin slumped by 8.52% on Tuesday, following Monday’s more modest 1.22% decline, to end the day at $67.34.
Tracking the broader market, a mid-morning rally saw Litecoin move through to an early afternoon intraday high $75.5 before easing back to $74 levels, the day high falling short of the first major resistance level at $76.22.
The late in the day sell-off saw Litecoin slide through the first major support level at $71.89 and second major support level at $70.03 to an intraday low and new swing lo $66.6 before recovering to $67 levels, the day’s moves reaffirming the extended bearish trend formed in early May.
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AUD/USD AND NZD/USD FUNDAMENTAL DAILY FORECAST – RBNZ CALLS FOR LOWER GROWTH UNTIL END OF YEAR

The early weakness suggests investors were caught by surprise by the negative reaction from the RBNZ since May. Although economic growth had slowed since then, some economists don’t think that it will remain as soft over the rest of this year as the Reserve Bank expects. They base this assessment on strong economic data in June.
The New Zealand and Australian Dollars are trading lower early Thursday with the Kiwi leading the way due to a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
At 0134 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6712, down 0.0036 or -0.54% and the AUD/USD is at .7431, down 0.0003 or -0.03%.
The New Zealand Dollar is under pressure early Thursday after the Reserve Bank signaled it will leave the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged until at least 2020, as concerns around the economy build.
The RBNZ left its benchmark interest rate unchanged as widely expected by economists and traders, however, it was the bank’s guidance calling for low rates for considerably longer than most forecasters were predicting, that is driving the Kiwi lower.
“We expect to keep the OCR at this through 2019 and into 2020, lower than we projected in our May Statement,” Governor Adrian Orr said in the opening lines of the statement.
“The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down.”
Orr also commented that the economy was expected to pick up pace before the end of the year, but there were risks that this may not happen. In the Reserve Bank’s latest forecasts, the economy is expected to grow by about 2.8 percent over the coming year, 0.5 percentage points lower than it expected at its last major update in May.
The RBNZ forecasts also call for lower growth in the next nine months before forecasting the economy will pick up in 2019.
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BITCOIN FALLS SHARPLY AS SEC DELAYS ETF DECISION UNTIL SEPTEMBER

Bitcoin takes an early hit as the broader market continues to slide following the SEC’s latest delay, the bears firmly in control early on.
Bitcoin slid by 6.96% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 1.16% fall, to end the day at $6,714. Bitcoin falls after the Securities exchange and commission postponed the approval of Bitcoin’s ETF until September.
Yesterday, a bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin move through to an early afternoon intraday high $7,150, Bitcoin breaking through the first major resistance level at $7,116.07, before easing back, while holding on to $7,000 levels through the afternoon.
Late in the day, a broad-based market sell-off saw Bitcoin slide through the day’s first major support level at $6,809.47 to call on support at the second major support level at $6,674.93, with an intraday low $6,677 before recovering to $6,700 levels by the day’s end.
Of greater significance on the day was Bitcoin’s pullback through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, a further reaffirmation of a resumption to the extended bearish trend formed back at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.
News of yet another postponement by the SEC on approving a Bitcoin ETF did the damage on Tuesday, the continued delay in approvals suggesting that there is more to the postponing than meets the eye, with the markets all too aware of the delayed release of unified rules and regulations by the G20.
With Bitcoin and the broader market suffering at the hands of the crypto bears, the sensitivity to any news has weighed significantly, in spite of a delay being quite different to a decline.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 6.96% to $6,537.8, with Tuesday’s late sell-off continuing into the early hours of the morning, investors unable to shake off the jitters following the SEC’s latest decision to delay.
The early morning slide saw Bitcoin pullback from an opening $6,718.7, through the first major support level at $6,544 and the second major support level at $6,374, to a morning low $6,360.5, before finding much need support to recover to $6,500 levels.
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GOLD PRICE CHART HINTS AT BOTTOMING AFTER US 10-YEAR BOND AUCTION

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices rise as US bond yields, Dollar fall after record debt sale
Crude oil prices drop, talked down by officials from China and Iran
Chart setups hint gold may be set to bounce as crude oil suffers losses
Gold prices rose yesterday as the US Dollar retreated alongside Treasury bond yields after hitting a 13-month high intraday. That helped the yellow metal leverage its appeal as an anti-fiat and non-interest bearing alternative. The move came after demand held impressively steady despite a record-setting offering of $26 billion in 10-year notes.
The bid-to-cover ratio registered at 2.55, only a hair lower than the 2.57 reading recorded at the prior sale of comparable paper. Investors seemed to interpret the outcome to mean that the oncoming flood of new issuance needed to finance the widening budget deficit will find healthy take-up. That sent US debt prices higher, trimming baseline borrowing costs.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices edged above trend line resistance set from mid-June, hinting an upswing may be in the works. The appearance of a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and positive RSI divergence reinforce the case for a rebound. A break above range floor support-turned-resistance at 1221.25 opens the door for a test of the 1236.6-40.86 area. Immediate support is at 1204.59, the August 3 low.
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BITCOIN FALLS SHARPLY AS SEC DELAYS ETF DECISION UNTIL SEPTEMBER

Bitcoin takes an early hit as the broader market continues to slide following the SEC’s latest delay, the bears firmly in control early on.
Bitcoin slid by 6.96% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 1.16% fall, to end the day at $6,714. Bitcoin falls after the Securities exchange and commission postponed the approval of Bitcoin’s ETF until September.
Yesterday, a bullish start to the day saw Bitcoin move through to an early afternoon intraday high $7,150, Bitcoin breaking through the first major resistance level at $7,116.07, before easing back, while holding on to $7,000 levels through the afternoon.
Late in the day, a broad-based market sell-off saw Bitcoin slide through the day’s first major support level at $6,809.47 to call on support at the second major support level at $6,674.93, with an intraday low $6,677 before recovering to $6,700 levels by the day’s end.
Of greater significance on the day was Bitcoin’s pullback through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, a further reaffirmation of a resumption to the extended bearish trend formed back at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.
News of yet another postponement by the SEC on approving a Bitcoin ETF did the damage on Tuesday, the continued delay in approvals suggesting that there is more to the postponing than meets the eye, with the markets all too aware of the delayed release of unified rules and regulations by the G20.
With Bitcoin and the broader market suffering at the hands of the crypto bears, the sensitivity to any news has weighed significantly, in spite of a delay being quite different to a decline.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 6.96% to $6,537.8, with Tuesday’s late sell-off continuing into the early hours of the morning, investors unable to shake off the jitters following the SEC’s latest decision to delay.
The early morning slide saw Bitcoin pullback from an opening $6,718.7, through the first major support level at $6,544 and the second major support level at $6,374, to a morning low $6,360.5, before finding much need support to recover to $6,500 levels.
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BITCOIN – DOMINANCE BEGINS TO RISE AS OTHERS FALTER

Bitcoin on the rise early, though holding on to $6,300 levels will be key in the early part of the day to avoid a pullback later in the day.
Bitcoin gained 1.24% on Sunday, following on from Saturday’s trend bucking 1.5% rise, to end the week down 10.2% at $6,310.1.
A late Saturday reversal continued into the early hours of Sunday morning, with Bitcoin pulling back to a start of a day intraday low $6,162 before recovering to $6,300 levels, the day’s low steering clear of the first major support level at $5,998.23 and more importantly sub-$6,000 levels.
Through a choppy afternoon, Bitcoin broke through to $6,400 levels, with an intraday high $6,499 seeing Bitcoin test the day’s first major resistance level at $6,489.63 before pulling back to $6,300 levels.
While there was no major weekend rally to speak of, the gains over the weekend cut the deficit for the week and of greater significance was the clear level of support at sub-$6,300 levels, any pullbacks to $6,100 levels being short lived, leading to recoveries to $6,300 levels on each occasion.
In spite of the support, Bitcoin continued to fall well short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 and $7,000 levels needed to begin a near-term bullish trend formation, with the markets yet to fully dust off the recent negative news to hit the wires.
For the broader market, it was a particularly tough week, Bitcoin’s dominance rising from a start of a week 47.3% through to 51% at the time of writing, with the cryptomarket total market cap sliding from $259.99bn to a low of $206.97bn before recovering to $214bn levels.
The Bitcoin bulls will be fully aware of the rise in Bitcoin dominance over the week, reflected in the minor losses relative to the broader market, the support for Bitcoin certainly evident over the weekend.
On the news wires, there was no materially negative news over the weekend, supporting Sunday’s gains though we can expect the regulatory chatter to return following a couple of weeks of relative silence.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.59% to $6,351, some early support seeing Bitcoin recover from a start of a day $6,306.8 low to an early morning $6,380 high, before easing back, the early moves leaving the major support and resistance levels untested.
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AUD/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – TREND DOWN, BUT RIPE FOR COUNTER-TREND REVERSAL

Since today’s session begins with the AUD/USD in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom, the key level to watch today will be yesterday’s close at .7272. We’re looking at three possible scenarios: Rally, Break or Closing Price Reversal Bottom.
The Australian Dollar is trading slightly higher early Tuesday, but inside yesterday’s range. This tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. We’re probably looking at some short-covering amid easing tensions in Turkey. Traders are also digesting the series of weaker-than-expected economic reports from China.
At 0404 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7277, up 0.0004 or +0.07%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7256 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The Aussie is in no position to change the trend to up, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, it is in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern will indicate the buying is greater than the selling, at least temporarily. This could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction.
A short-term range may be forming between .7453 and .7256. Its retracement zone at .7354 to .7378 is a potential upside target. Since the trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.
The longer-term target is the December 23, 2016 main bottom at .7159.Daily Technical forecast
Since today’s session begins with the AUD/USD in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom, the key level to watch today will be yesterday’s close at .7272. We’re looking at three possible scenarios.
Firstly, buyers come in from the opening and defend .7272 all session. This could trigger weak buy stops over yesterday’s high at .7300. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a possible rally into the nearest downtrending Gann angle at .7333.
Secondly, sellers come in from the opening and take out .7256, triggering a resumption of the downtrend. The daily chart shows there is plenty of room to the downside with .7159 the next major target.
The third possibility is the closing price reversal bottom. In this case, sellers take out yesterday’s low at .7256 then turn higher for the session. This will indicate weak selling and strong short-covering. It could trigger a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally with .7355 the minimum upside target.
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CRYPTOCURRENCIES CRASH CONTINUES; BITCOIN’S BULLETPROOF BOTTOM AT $6000?

The leading cryptocurrencies show a two-digits sell-off on Tuesday: Ethereum (ETH) has lost more than 17%, XRP fell by 14.5%, and Cardano (ADA) has plummeted more than any other major cryptocurrency by almost 20%. Bitcoin dropped 6% to trade near $6000.
The cryptocurrency market has started the current week with an impressive decline. The total market cap fell by 12% to $ 192 billion a day, which is less than 25% of the peak market volume at the beginning of the year. The Bitcoin once again came to the threshold level at $6000 losing more than 6% in the past 24 hours.
The leading altcoins show a two-digits sell-off: Ethereum (ETH) has lost more than 17%, XRP fell by 14.5%, Cardano (ADA) and IOTA (IOT) have plummeted more than any other major cryptocurrency by almost 20%.
As we take a look at the BTC chart for this year, we can see that the cryptocurrency showed lower lows and lower highs until the BTC level reached the current mark somewhat below $6000, which seems a strong support level.
$6000 mark could become the solid support with possible reverse
From a technical analysis perspective, the situation looks ambiguous. The Bitcoin returned to the area of its lows where it received support in February, March-April, and June. Another rebound from this area could start a significant rally, having established as a bulletproof bottom.
The RSI index also came out of the oversold levels, which often increases the chances for a rebound. Despite the weakness of the market, this scenario looks the most plausible at the moment.
Alternatively, the drawdown lower than the previous levels near $5800 could give an impulse for a new sell-off wave. In this case, BTC would expect a decline to $3300 level due to a significant liquidation of long positions.
Volatility in the traditional markets does not cause the demand for cryptocurrencies, as it was a year ago, despite the twofold increase in trade volumes on the Turkish exchanges. In general, the world becomes a witness of a massive diminishing of the interest in cryptocurrencies.
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EUR/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – HOVERING ABOVE 13-MONTH LOW AT 1.1312

Early Wednesday, the EUR/USD is trading flat. We’re looking at the possibility of three developments today. Firstly, we could see a steady opening, followed by a higher trade. This will indicate that buyers are coming in to defend yesterday’s low at 1.1331. Secondly, sellers could return, taking out 1.1331 in the process and continuing the downtrend. Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, we could see a third development. This would involve taking out yesterday’s low at 1.1331 then closing back above yesterday’s close at 1.1343.
The Euro hit a 13-month low early in the session on Tuesday as investors continued to express concerns over the exposure of European banks to the financial turmoil in Turkey. Worries have lingered about European banks’ loans to Turkey, stoking selling of regional stocks and the single currency.
The EUR/USD settled at 1.1343, down 0.0067 or -0.59%.
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1331 will continue the downtrend.
The EUR/USD is in no position to change the main trend to up, but it is in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern can fuel the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.
Daily Technical Forecast
Early Wednesday, the EUR/USD is trading flat. We’re looking at the possibility of three developments today.
Firstly, we could see a steady opening, followed by a higher trade. This will indicate that buyers are coming in to defend yesterday’s low at 1.1331. This could generate enough momentum to fuel a short-covering rally into a steep downtrending Gann angle at 1.1428.
The Gann angle at 1.1428 forms a resistance cluster with yesterday’s high at 1.1430. Taking out this area will indicate the buying is getting stronger and make 1.1331 a new minor bottom.
Secondly, sellers could return, taking out 1.1331 in the process and continuing the downtrend. This could lead to a quick test of the July 5, 2017 main bottom at 1.1312. If this bottom fails then look for the selling to extend into the steep downtrending Gann angle at 1.1228. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the EUR/USD in a bearish position.
Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, we could see a third development. This would involve taking out yesterday’s low at 1.1331 then closing back above yesterday’s close at 1.1343. This closing price reversal bottom will not change the trend, but it will indicate the buying may be greater than the selling at current price levels, at least temporarily. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.
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GOLD PRICE FUTURES (GC) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – MORE VOLATILITY COMING WITH $1166.60 NEXT DOWNSIDE TARGET

Based on the current price at $1184.50, the direction of the December Comex Gold market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the former bottom at $1184.00. Now that we’ve tested $1184.00, volatility is expected to pick up since there is plenty of room in both directions with $1210.70 a potential upside target and $1166.60 the next downside target.
Gold futures hit an 18-month low early Wednesday as investors continued to dump the dollar-denominated asset as the U.S. Dollar moved towards its highest level in over a year. Fear of global market contagion drove the greenback higher as sellers continued to express concerns over emerging markets.Daily Technical Analysis
Gold has been in a freefall since Monday after it breached the August 3 bottom at $1212.50. The move, however, came as no surprise since the daily chart indicated plenty of room to the downside with the January 3, 2017 main bottom at $1184.00 the next major downside target.
Due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the only chart pattern that can safe this market from breaking further is a closing price reversal bottom. And that’s not likely to happen unless the market finishes over yesterday’s close at $1200.70.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the current price at $1184.50, the direction of the December Comex Gold market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the former bottom at $1184.00.
A sustained move over $1184.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. It will also suggest that today’s sell-off was exhaustion.
A sustained move under $1184.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a drive into the steep downtrending Gann angle at $1176.70.
Crossing to the weak side of this angle will confirm the bearish tone and set up the market for a further drive into the December 22, 2016 main bottom at $1166.60. This is followed closely by the December 16, 2016 main bottom at $1162.00.
Now that we’ve tested $1184.00, volatility is expected to pick up since there is plenty of room in both directions with $1210.70 a potential upside target and $1166.60 the next downside target.
At 1845 GMT, December Comex Gold is trading $1184.50, down $16.20 or -1.35%.
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BITCOIN – RECOVERS FROM SUB-$6,000 WOES, BUT MORE VOL TO COME

Bitcoin’s on the move as the Bulls recover from the shock of hitting sub-$6,000 levels, though market volatility is unlikely to abate any time soon.
Bitcoin fell by 0.99% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 0.99% fall, to end the day at $6,190.
While the day’s loss was a relatively minor one, it was a particularly choppy day, with Bitcoin sliding through the first major support level at $6,071.57 and second major support level at $5,899.23 to an intraday low $5,858.6.
Bitcoin managed to avoid striking a new swing lo, while the visit to sub-$6,000 levels was the first since a 29th June $5,780.
In spite of the broad based market sell-off and negative sentiment lingering in the wake of the SEC postponement to decisions on the future of a number of Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin managed to fund support to recover back through to $6,000 levels in the late morning, with a broad based market rally seeing Bitcoin test $6,200 ahead of the day’s end.
A start of a day $6,251.9 high left the day’s first major resistance level at $6,482.27 untested, with Bitcoin continuing to fall short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, leaving the extended bearish trend, formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999, intact.
The sell-off seen in recent weeks that accelerated on Monday through Tuesday certainly had the feeling of a bubble bursting, with no real justification for an end to the slide other than speculative trading, with side lined investors likely to have been looking at valuations with the knowledge that the Bitcoin whales were unlikely to be jumping ship anytime soon.
Either way, the bulls stemmed the tide and, in spite of Bitcoin’s visit to sub-$6,000 levels, Bitcoin continued to hold on to its recent rise in dominance, currently sitting at 53.1%, the slide in the early hours of Tuesday having seen Bitcoin’s dominance rise to 54.62 before easing back, more material sell-offs across the other crypto majors supporting Bitcoin dominance with its less sizeable daily moves.
On the news wires, there was no particular news that supported the recovery late in the day, with investors needing to be mindful of whether any start of a day rally on Wednesday is just a spill over from late Tuesday’s bounce or a shift in market sentiment that would support a more sustained rally through the day.
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EUR/USD DAILY PRICE FORECAST – EUR/USD REBOUNDS POST HITTING 13-MONTH LOWS ON US-CHINA TRADE TALKS

EUR/USD rebounds from 13-month lows as major global currencies including EURO got a bullish boost in Asian market hours on news of Sino-US Trade talks.
Riskier assets and the EUR scored gains in Asian market hours due to the news that Chinese officials will be traveling to the United States for trade talks in late August. As of writing this article, the EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1384 up 0.33% on the day, after hitting 13 month Low at 1.13009 during yesterday’s trading session. A Reuters report released earlier today quoted China’s Ministry of Commerce as saying that a Chinese delegation led by Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen will hold talks with US representatives led by Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs David Malpass later this month. The announcement seems to have boosted risk assets. For instance, the AUD/USD is up 0.40 percent and the USD/JPY is reporting marginal gains despite the BOJ rate hike talk. As a result, the EUR turned higher in Asia and could extend gains further in the European and US session if the equities react positively to the news of US/China trade talks.
News of Sino-US Talks Has Curbed Selling Activity Surrounding Chinese Yuan

Trade war fears had morphed into an opportunity for speculators, who had been selling the Yuan and other currencies against the dollar. The news that pointed to a possible easing of U.S.-China trade tensions appears to have curbed such activity. But there is no guarantee that the trade discussions will end successfully. As such, the trade news may have stopped the speculators’ selling but perhaps only for the time being. The greenback had drawn strength after a tough week for emerging market currencies, initially led by the rout in the Turkish lira. The currency plunged to an all-time low at the start of the week as tensions between Ankara and Washington flared and worries over President Tayyip Erdogan’s economic policies increased. The lira has since recovered to 5.9725 per dollar after slumping to a record low of 7.24 on Monday.
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THE BITCOIN BULLS EYE $6,700 LEVELS TO TAKE SUB-$6,000 OUT OF PLAY

Bitcoin is on the move early and holding on to $6,300 levels would support a return to $6,600 levels later in the day, the markets settling.
Bitcoin gained 1.11% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 0.99% loss, to end the day at $6,258.

Tuesday’s late in the day upward moves continued into the early hours of Wednesday, with Bitcoin moving through the day’s first major resistance level at $6,341.73 to a morning high $6,483 before easing back.
Holding on to $6,200 levels through the middle part of the day and avoiding another visit to sub-$6,000 levels to test the day’s first major support level at $5,948.43, supported a break back through the first major resistance level at $6,341.73 and a break through the second major resistance level at $6,493.47 to an intraday high $6,647.6.
A late sell-off saw Bitcoin pullback to $6,200 levels by the day’s end, with investor fears of another sell-off seeing intraday gains locked in early, pinning back any major recovery as the market looks ahead to the SEC Bitcoin ETF decisions and the G20 rule and regs, which are the two key drivers for Bitcoin and the broader market near-term.
For the Bitcoin bulls, holding on to $6,200 levels through the day was key, though Bitcoin continued to fall short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 needed to support the formation of a near-term bullish trend. The good news was Bitcoin’s break through to $6,600 levels, though Bitcoin will need to be taking a run at $6,700 levels in the coming days to avoid any sell-off.
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EUR/USD Rate Eyes August-High as Bearish Trends Start to Unravel

EURO TALKING POINTS
EUR/USD appears to be on track to test the August-high (1.1700) following the Fed Economic Symposium, and recent price action raises the risk for a more meaningful recovery in the exchange rate as bothprice and Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the bearish trends from earlier this year.
EUR/USD RATE EYES AUGUST-HIGH AS BEARISH TRENDS START TO UNRAVEL

Despite the limited reaction to Germany’s IFO Business Climate survey, EUR/USD extends the advance from the 2018-low (1.1301) amid the less-hawkish tone from Chairman Jerome Powell, and the exchange rate may continue to appreciate over the near-term as the recent rhetoric casts doubts for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may opt for a dovish rate-hike in September despite the risk for above-target inflation as ‘there does not seem to be an elevated risk of overheating,’ and a growing number of central bank officials may adopt a less-hawkish tone amid the ongoing shift in U.S. trade policy.Keep in mind, Fed Fund Futures still show bets for four rate-hikes this year, with market participants gearing up for a move in September and December, but it seems as though the central bank is in no rush to extend the hiking-cycle as ‘members agreed that the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would depend on their assessments of realized and expected economic conditions relative to the Committee’s objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.’
With that said, Chairman Powell & Co. may continue to project a neutral Fed Funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00%, and the central bank may stick to the current script throughout the remainder of the year as ‘most expressed the view that an escalation in international trade disputes was a potentially consequential downside risk for real activity.’ Easing bets for a an extended hiking-cycle may keep the dollar under pressure, with EUR/USD at risk of staging a more meaningful recovery as bothprice and Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the bearish trends from earlier this year. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.
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Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets continue to grind higher

Gold markets rallied significantly over the last couple of days, but the Tuesday session was a bit more tepid. However, we continue to grind higher, and I think we will go looking towards the $1225 level eventually. The market continues to be very resilient.
Gold markets continue to be very positive overall, grinding higher and towards the $1225 level. I believe that the market will probably continue to be somewhat resilient, but at this point I think we may need to take a bit of a breather as the $1225 level is a major round figure. There is a lot of attention at that level historically, so I think it’s only a matter of time before we will have some significant resistance. However, if we can clear that level, I think the market will then end up being very bullish and should continue to go even higher. The reality of the situation is that the market is probably paying more attention to the US dollar at this point than anything else, so if it continues to be somewhat tepid, that should help Gold markets overall. I think gold got a little oversold, but it wouldn’t take much to have people spooked right back into the greenback, and that of course could cause major issues. Overall, I believe that the attitude of gold should remain positive long term, but we will of course have major pullbacks as there is still plenty of fear out there just waiting to be launched.
The $1200 level continues to be psychologically important, so keep that in mind. If we were to break down below it, then I think that could accelerate the selling. If we break above the $1225 level, then I think the next target is probably $1250 after that.
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Venezuela Can Shake-Up the Cryptocurrency World

A new partnership was announced in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, where the economic situation is critical and the official currency bolivar costs almost nothing. Poor economic conditions give a lot of opportunities to cryptocurrencies expansion instead of traditional fiat money.
The cryptomarket has started Tuesday in a green zone: Bitcoin has added 4.5% coming closer to $7,050. Altcoins shows the similar dynamics: Top-10 cryptocurrencies added from 4% (ETH) to 20% (IOTA). The total cryptomarket cap has increased by more than 12% to $228 bln within a week. It could be considered as evidence that a timid demand appears on the market after a long period of stagnation.
A sharp rate increase showed the DASH coin adding 26% in the latest 24 hours due to the new partnership with Kripto Mobile. According to it, Latin America’s users will get an access to financial transfers via cell phones.
A new partnership was announced in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, where the economic situation is critical and the official currency bolivar costs almost nothing. Poor economic conditions give a lot of opportunities to cryptocurrencies expansion instead of traditional fiat money.
Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro orders banks to adopt the Petro cryptocurrencies in respond to the country economic crisis.
It means that the revolution could be driven not by a few hundreds of the cryptocurrencies whales, but hundreds of millions people from the third world countries who may create an enormous inflow of liquidity to any cryptocurrency allowing it to become one of the TOP-3. Such a “peoples’” cryptocurrency has definitely all the chances to get the throne back from the Bitcoin.
From the analysis side, according to the stock market rules, the bulls market happens when an asset adds 20% of its lowest level. In case of the Bitcoin, which decreased to $5880 mark, the bulls market will start from the levels near $7055 that is almost reached.
Earlier, we’ve already written that going beyond the limits of the corridor 6000-6600 is able to cause an increase in the activity of the market participants and it looks like this gain we saw yesterday. The growth above $7000 can become an additional support factor for the bulls.
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NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Testing Key Uptrending Gann Angles at .6661 and .6654

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6664, the direction of the NZD/USD throughout the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of uptrending Gann angles at .6661 and .6654.
The New Zealand Dollar is under pressure early Thursday after the latest ANZ Outlook survey showed business confidence fell further in August.
“In August, ANZ Business Outlook Survey headline business confidence dropped a further 5 points to a net 50 percent of respondents reporting they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead,” said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner.
“It is rare for this series to be negative. If this weakness is sustained, it will not bode well for GDP growth heading into the end of the year.”
Daily Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, the lack of follow-through to the upside and trader reaction to a test of key retracement levels suggests that sellers may still be in control.
A trade through .6727 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .6621 will change the main trend to down.
The main range is .6851 to .6544. Its retracement zone at .6698 to .6734 is resistance. Inside this zone is a major Fibonacci level at .6723. This levels stopped the rally on Tuesday, helping to contribute to today’s weakness.
The short-term range is .6544 to .6727. If the selling pressure continues then look for the move to extend into its retracement zone at .6635 to .6614. Inside this retracement zone is the last main bottom at .6621.
Daily Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6664, the direction of the NZD/USD throughout the day is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of uptrending Gann angles at .6661 and .6654.
Holding at .6661 will signal the presence of buyers and that the worst of the selling is over. This could trigger an intraday short-covering rally with the best upside target the main 50% level at .6698.
A failure to hold .6654 will signal that the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a further decline into the short-term 50% level at .6635, followed by the main bottom at .6621 and the 61.8% level at .6614.
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Gold Price Prediction – Gold Retreats as Tariff News Hits the Tape

Gold prices moved lower as the Euro lost ground, generating headwinds for the yellow metal. The dollar was mixed, losing ground against the Yen, as yields pulled back despite a stronger than expected Personal Spending and Income report. International Trade news again focused on Tariff that are scheduled to be issued on China by the United States, also weighed on gold prices.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices moved lower on Thursday but held above support levels near the 20-day moving average at 1,198. Resistance on the yellow metal is seen near the August highs at 1,219. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal just below overbought territory which could foreshadow a correction. Gold prices reached oversold level earlier in the week. Positive momentum on gold prices is decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.
The Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge Hit 2%
The US commerce department on Thursday reported that core personal income expenditures, which is the Feds favored gauge of inflation, hit 2% for the 3rd time in 2018. This level would mean interest rates would need to climb to 2% to create a neutral policy. The year over year rate was 1.9% in June which means inflation is accelerating. While gold prices rise to offset rising inflation, current inflation outside of the US is relatively subdued. This means that higher US inflation will likely be met with a rising dollar, which would generate headwinds for gold prices. Separately, personal spending came in at 0.4% in July which match the June figures. Personal income came in at 0.3% declining from 0.4% in June. Wages increased by 6.7% which was down slightly from the June figures. The savings rate also decline, which makes sense given the uptick in spending.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Trade Disputes, RBA Decisions, Domestic Data Main Price Drivers

This week, the emphasis will once again be on the U.S. Dollar and its function as a safe-haven asset. The Aussie and Kiwi could face extended selling pressure if the greenback is supported by trade dispute jitters or robust U.S. economic data. Additional trade volatility could be provided by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate and monetary policy decision as well as fresh data on Australian GDP and Trade Balance.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars posted a two-sided trade last week, rallying early after the announcement of a new trade deal between the United States and Mexico drove investors out of the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, then plunging late in the week on concerns over a possible escalation of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
Last week, the AUD/USD settled at .7193, down 0.0134 or -1.83% and the NZD/USD closed at .6620, down 0.0070 or -1.05%.
There was economic data last week from Australia, New Zealand and the United States, but the primary focus for investors was on trade issues. As far as the economic data is concerned, there were no significant major events to change the central bank or interest rate outlook. The Fed is still hawkish and likely to raise rates at least 2 more times in 2018, and the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are still dovish.
The widening interest rate differential is what’s driving the long-term downtrends in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The trade news is driving the volatility.
Short-term, the Forex pairs are being primarily influenced by fresh trade news.
On factor that drove the action late in the week was the news that the United States and Canada ended their trade talks without a deal. Although there was some upside retracement after the U.S. said talks would resume with Canada next week, traders feel that given the downside momentum throughout the session, the currencies should continue to trade weaker on Monday.
The main driver of the selling pressure, however, late in the week was the possibility that new tariffs by the United States against China would be announced as early as this week.
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Euro Holds Monthly Support But Deeper Losses Likely Ahead

TECHNICAL FORECAST FOR THE EURO: BEARISH
Euro finished August narrowly avoiding monthly support break
Shorter-term chart setup argues for renewed downside pressure
Added further to short EUR/USD trade initiated near 1.24 mark.
The Euro narrowly avoided a break below monthly support near the 1.15 figure. Still, the decade-long down trend against the US Dollar remains very much intact as September gets underway. What’s more, nearer-term positioning suggests it may be just a matter of time before a breach opens the door for deeper losses.
The daily chart shows prices recoiling from resistance capping the upside since early June, paving the way for another challenge of support in the 1.1530-54 area. A daily close below that puts the August swing low back in the crosshairs.
Zooming in to the four-hour chart offers further confirmation and a greater sense of urgency as prices pierce below counter-trend support guiding the upswing from August lows and breach a secondary barrier marked by former resistance. That seems to set the stage for another challenge of the 1.15 threshold.
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Bitcoin – $7,300 the Line in the Sand for the Bulls

Bitcoin recovered from early losses this morning, while strong resistance at $7,300 continues to be a struggle for the Bitcoin bulls.
Bitcoin slipped by just 0.47% on Monday, partially reversing Sunday’s 1.43% gain, to end the day at $7,265.7, the trend of Monday losses resuming after having managed to kick off the previous week on the front foot.
In line with the broader market, Bitcoin slipped from a start of a day morning high $7,324.8 to an early morning intraday low $7,200 before finding support, the early reversal seeing Bitcoin steer clear of the day’s first major support level at $7,147.27.
Support through the late morning and early afternoon led Bitcoin through to an intraday high $7,369, the day’s high coming within reach of the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376 before pulling back.
Selling pressure at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level continues to pin Bitcoin back from more material gains, with a late in the day reversal seeing Bitcoin slide back to $7,200 levels to leave the extended bearish trend intact.
The lack of a major move through the day left the broader market on the defensive, in spite of the news wires being relatively quiet on the regulatory front, investors locking in profits at the start of the week in anticipation of more regulatory chatter through the month.
While the news wires were on the quieter side, the latest CFTC Commodity of Traders report showed that there was a reversal in the previous week’s rise in long positions, with long positions falling from 2,160 to 1,974, to give the bears a stronger grip, short positions rising from 3,426 to 3,446 according to the latest available report released on 31st August for data as at 28th August.
We can expect Bitcoin and the broader market to respond to the month end numbers once released, with any bounce back in the longs supporting another run at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376 and the beginnings of a near-term bullish trend.
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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 06/09/18

While Ripple’s XRP bucks the trend in the early hours, Wednesday’s sell-off continues to resonate, with some of the majors deep in the red early on.
Bitcoin Cash Tanks
Bitcoin Cash tumbled by 15.93% on Wednesday, following a 0.37% fall on Tuesday, to end the day at $526.8, the start of September proving to be dire for the majors, Bitcoin Cash in the red on each of the first three days of this month.
Bitcoin Cash had a relatively range bound start to the day, rising to an early morning intraday high $633 before easing back to $620 levels, the first major resistance level at $645.87 left untested on the day.
A late morning broad based market sell-off saw Bitcoin Cash slide through the major support levels to a morning low $553.5 before getting hit by a second wave late in the day, falling to an intraday low $523.1 before steadying.
The slide in Bitcoin Cash and the broader market was attributed to news of Goldman Sachs putting its planned opening of a cryptocurrency trading desk on hold, suggesting that there may be less institutional money on its way into the cryptomarket than previously assumed, negative news doing the damage on the day.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 2.98% to $511, with Wednesday’s sell-off spilling into the early hours, Bitcoin Cash falling from a start of a day morning high $526.8 to a morning low $487.8 before moving back to $500 levels, support at day’s first major support level at $488.93 kicking in.
For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high to $560 levels would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $598.83 to bring $600 levels into play, though we will expect Bitcoin Cash to face plenty of resistance on any attempts to break out from $560.
Failure to move back through the morning high to $560 levels could see Bitcoin Cash take another hit later in the day, with a pullback to sub-$500 levels to call on support at the first major support level at $488.93 for a second time in play should sentiment fail to improve later in the day.
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AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Could Regain Strength Over .7159, Weakens Under .7145

Early Friday, the AUD/USD is testing a previous bottom at .7159. If it fails then the Forex pair is likely to continue into the May 24, 2016 bottom and this week’s low at .7145. A trade through .7145 could create the downside momentum needed to challenge the February 29, 2016 main bottom at .7107.
The Australian Dollar is trading lower early Friday amid fears of additional tariffs from the U.S. on its largest trading partner China. Traders are also paring positions ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, due to be released at 1230 GMT.
At 0337 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7158, down 0.0039 or -0.56%.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7145 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7235 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.
On September 5, the AUD/USD formed a closing price reversal bottom at .7145. However, it hasn’t been confirmed. A trade through .7218 will confirm the chart pattern.
The main range is .7363 to .7145. Its retracement zone at .7254 to .7280 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this area.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Early Friday, the AUD/USD is testing a previous bottom at .7159. If it fails then the Forex pair is likely to continue into the May 24, 2016 bottom and this week’s low at .7145.
A trade through .7145 could create the downside momentum needed to challenge the February 29, 2016 main bottom at .7107.
Aggressive counter-trend buyers may be trying to build a support base between .7159 and .7145. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then buyers may make a run at .7218, followed by the minor top at .7235. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into .7254 to .7280.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Sustained Aussie Break Under .7100 Could Lead to Move into Upper 60’s

I expect the bears to remain in control so any rallies are likely to be shorting opportunities. The Australian Dollar could drop into the 60’s. This may have to happen in order to potentially boost the competitiveness of exporters and import-competing industries. The RBA may be hoping this occurs and that it leads to increased hiring that would help drive up wages.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollar were whacked last week for a loss of over 1 percent. The selling was fueled by a number of factors including trade concerns, a dovish central bank, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and widening interest rate differentials.
The Aussie and Kiwi were pressured and the U.S. Dollar underpinned on escalating U.S.-Sino trade tensions. Traders are on edge because a public consultation period for proposed U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion for Chinese imports ended at 0400 GMT on Friday and the Trump administration can impose those tariffs at any moment, though there is no clear timetable. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
For the week, the AUD/USD finished at .7106, down 0.0087 or -1.21% and the NZD/USD settled at .6534, down 0.0087 or -1.31%.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates at a record low, as it has for the past two years. As expected, RBA Government Philip Lowe left the cash rate at 1.5 percent, a stance he expects would eventually tighten the labor market and spur enough wage growth to speed up inflation.
While the weakness in the Australian Dollar could help speed up the recovery, there is also risk that rising mortgage rates and falling property prices could encourage households to stop spending.
“One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption,” Lowe said in a statement after the decision. “Household income has been growing slowly and debt levels are high,”
Other than the RBA’s gloomy outlook, the economic data wasn’t bad. Australian Retail Sales were flat, missing the forecast, but quarterly GDP was up 0.9%, better than the 0.7% forecast. The previous report was revised upward to 1.1%.
Rising Treasury yields also weighed on the Aussie and Kiwi. The yield on the benchmark two-year Treasury note jumped to its highest level in more than 10 years Friday after the economy added more jobs than expected in August and wages posted their biggest increase of the post-recession period. This helped widen the interest rate differential between U.S. Government bond yields and Australian and New Zealand government debt.
According to the Labor Department, nonfarm payrolls grew by 201,000 in August while average hourly earnings rose 2.9 percent for the month on an annualized basis. On a monthly basis, wages jumped 10 cents or 0.4 percent. Economists had expected payrolls to increase 191,000 and wages to increase 0.2%. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%. The news likely offered ammunition to hawkish Federal Reserve officials who are eager to curb burgeoning signs of inflation.
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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 10/09/18

It was a positive start to the day, but holding on to key levels through the morning will be key to avoid a reversal later in the day.
Bitcoin Cash Steadies
Bitcoin Cash gained 1.65% on Sunday, partially reversing Saturday’s 4.79% slide, to end the day at $481.5. The day’s gain brought to an end 6 consecutive days in the red that left Bitcoin Cash down 26.1% for the week.
An early pullback to an intraday low $463 saw Bitcoin Cash steer clear of the day’s first major support level at $455.33, with a late morning rally leading Bitcoin through to an early afternoon intraday high $495 before easing back to $480 levels. The first major resistance level at $498.93 was left untested on the day to leave the extended bearish trend firmly intact following Saturday’s low and new swing lo $463.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 0.98% to $484.1 in what’s been a relatively choppy start to the day, Bitcoin Cash moving from a morning low $477.1 to an early high $488.7 before pulling back, the day’s major support and resistance levels left untested.
For the day ahead, holding on to $480 levels through the morning would support another run at $490 levels to bring the day’s first major resistance level at $496.67 and $500 levels into play, though the weekend news could pin Bitcoin Cash back ahead of Thursday’s EU Finance Ministers’ meeting.
Failure to hold on to $480 levels through the morning could see Bitcoin Cash give up the early gains, with a pullback through the morning low $477.1 bringing sub-$470 levels and the day’s first major support level at $464.47 into play, with any slide to sub-$460 levels dependent upon market sentiment later in the day.
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Bitcoin – Bears Eye sub-$6,000 Levels as Bulls Try to Steady the Ship

A steadier stats to the day, following another sell-off on Saturday, will give the bulls some relief, but there may be more pain ahead.
Bitcoin slid by 3.32% on Saturday, following a 1.78% fall on Friday, to end the day at $6,184.9.
A 4th consecutive day in the red and 5 losses in 6 days left Bitcoin down 15.3% for the current week, with Bitcoin and the broader market unable to shake off a run of negative news hitting the wires last week.
A positive start to the day saw Bitcoin move through to a late morning intraday high $6,475.5 before easing back, Bitcoin falling well short of the day’s first major resistance level at $6,525, with the prospect of EU specific rules and regulations for the cryptomarket weighing ahead of next week’s EU Finance Minister gathering.
Tracking the broader market, a late afternoon sell-off saw Bitcoin slide through the day’s first major support level at $6,298.5 and second major support level at $6,197.3 to an intraday low $6,119.5 before steadying, the day’s reversal reaffirming the extended bearish trend formed at early May’s swing hi $9,999.
While Bitcoin managed to avoid a slide back to sub-$6,000 levels, last hit back on 14th August, the failure to recover back through the day’s first and second major support levels by the day’s end suggests more pain to come for Bitcoin and the broader market, with the bullish talk of $20,000 coming to an abrupt.
The reversal across the broader market has seen Bitcoin’s dominance rise to 56%, its highest level of the year, reflective of the bearish sentiment across the broader market, with the cryptomarket’s total market capitalization now sitting at $191.35bn, its lowest level since November of last year.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.15% to $6,175.5, Bitcoin moving through to $6,200 levels, with a morning high $6,208.4 before pulling back to a morning low $6,140.5, the moves through the early part of the day leaving the day’s major support and resistance levels untested.
For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high $6,208.4 to $6,250 would raise the prospects of a late weekend relief rally to bring $6,300 levels into play, while Bitcoin will likely struggle to take a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $6,400, barring particularly positive news hitting the wires.
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Gold Price Prediction – Gold Forms Doji Day withing Bear Flag Pattern

Gold prices whipsawed and initially moved lower but rebounded into the close of the trading session. The dollar was firmer against the yen and slightly stronger against the euro which weighed on yellow metal prices. Interest rates moved higher following a robust US Job openings and layoffs report. Stronger yields spilled over into the greenback as the US 10-year moved toward the 3% level.
Technical Analysis

Gold prices whipsawed forming a doji day where the open and the close were near the same level reflecting indecision. Prices are forming a bear flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes lower. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,214. Support is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,195. Momentum is neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation.
The Dollar Rises on Robust JOLTS
July JOLTS hit new high at 6.939 million job openings. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.5 million, respectively. the quits rate was little changed at 2.4% and the layoffs and discharges rate were unchanged at 1.1%. An elevated quit rate combine with a high openings level lifted US yields.
UK Data is Solid
UK data is coming out strong. The robust PMI services and growth figures and solid weekly earnings helped to lift sterling which helped buoy the yellow metal. When you include the bonus payments the weekly wages figures increased by nearly 3% in the current quarter ending July on a year over year basis which was stronger than expected and match the highs for 2018 seen in March. The claimant count increased by 8.7k after an upward revision to 10.2k in July. It has risen by an average of 10.2k this year after being virtually flat in the same 2018 period. Employment growth has also slowed, but remain at elevated levels.
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USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar falls against yen

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen during trading on Wednesday as several headlines came across the wires that got people nervous in general. The Japanese yen is the ultimate “safety currency”, so it makes sense that we saw this type of reaction.
James Bullard suggested that a yield curve inversion would kick off another recession during the day, and even though this is well known to most Wall Street strategists, this seemed to have caused some type of weird panic in the market. Beyond that, the Mexicans have stated that there is a high likelihood of a deal between the United States and Canada, so somehow that tank the stock market. I think what we have here is another case of “bots gone wild”, meaning that machines are trading the headlines and people are all but absent. Because of that, I think we are going to continue to see erratic moves like this.
However, looking at the chart I see there is a significant amount of support near the ¥111.10 level, that extends down to the round figure at the ¥110 level. Because of this, I’m looking for an opportunity to pick up this pair “on the cheap” and think that we will see a turnaround eventually. This is a market that continues to be very noisy in general, but that makes sense as we have so much in the way of trade disputes and of course emerging market problems. The US dollar has enjoyed a lot of strength as of late, and I think it will again. However, the Japanese yen is probably the one currency that will outperform it in a negative environment. This pullback should be thought of as a nice buying opportunity, let the market settle down and then take advantage of it.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Downtrend Intact Amid Consolidation

EUR/USD TECHNICAL STRATEGY: NET SHORT AT 1.2153
Euro locked in familiar congestion area capped near 1.17 figure
Dominant trend trajectory continues to favor broadly bearish bias
EUR/USD short trade in play, looking for downtrend resumption
The Euro remains locked in a choppy consolidation range after a rebound from support near the 1.13 figure stalled below resistance capping gains since early June. In fact – a brief swoon in mid-August notwithstanding – the pair has barely budged from the same congestion area since late May.
Breaking above the outer layer of that barrier – now at 1.1702 – is needed to neutralize the near-term bearish bias. If that were to happen, the next resistance threshold would emerge in the 1.1840-52 area. Alternatively, a reversal back below support in the 1.1530-54 zone opens the door for descent back toward 1.13.
Pulling back from near-term price action to size up longer-term positioning on the monthly chart, it seems clear enough that the dominant downtrend stretching back over a decade is intact. Furthermore, the most recent leg of that move – launched in April of this year – shows no apparent signs of having ended.With that in mind, the EUR/USD short position initially triggered at 1.2407 and subsequently scaled up, first near 1.19 and then once again at 1.1660, remains in play. A stop-loss will be activated on a discretionary basis, although a daily close above 1.1702 seems like a compelling reason for an exit.
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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 17/09/18

It’s been a mixed start to the day, the majors giving up gains from earlier in the day, key levels needed to be held on to in support of an afternoon rally.
Bitcoin Cash Steadies

Bitcoin Cash gained 0.6% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 0.29% rise, to end the day at $450.7, with the weekend’s minor recovery leaving Bitcoin Cash down 6.4% for the week.
A particularly choppy day saw Bitcoin Cash take a tumble through the day’s first major support level at $440.03 and second major support level at $431.77 to an intraday low $425.1 before bouncing back to $440 levels. A boost late in the day saw Bitcoin Cash move through to an intraday high $452, coming up short of the day’s first major resistance level at $459.53 before easing back to $450.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 1.8% to $458.7, with Bitcoin Cash rallying at the start of the day to a morning high $463.4 before easing back. The moves through the early part of the day saw Bitcoin Cash test the first major resistance level at $460.1, while leaving the first major support level at $433.2 left untested.
For the day ahead, holding on to $450 levels would support another run at $460 levels and the day’s first major resistance, with a breakout to test the second major resistance level at $469.5 in play should Bitcoin Cash avoid a late in the day reversal.
Failure to hold on to $450 levels could see Bitcoin Cash fall pullback to $440 levels, while we would expect the day’s first major support level at $433.2 to be left untested barring materially negative news hitting the wires,
Litecoin Up for a 4th Consecutive Day

Litecoin gained 0.87% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 0.57% rise, to end the day at $56.84, the weekend moves giving Litecoin a 3.53% gain for the week.
Tracking the broader market, Litecoin fell through the day’s first major support level at $55.22 to an early morning intraday low $54.45 before recovering. Support through the rest of the day saw Litecoin move to a late in the day intraday high $57.45 before easing back to $56 levels, the day’s high falling short of the first major resistance level at $58.4.
At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 0.11% to $56.84, with an early move to a morning high $57.85 hitting reverse, Litecoin sitting just above a start of a day $56.8 low, the moves through the early hours leaving the major resistance and support levels untested.
For the day ahead, a move back through to $57 levels would support another run at the day’s first major resistance level at $58.04, while we would expect Litecoin to fall short of $59 levels and the second major resistance level at $59.25, resistance expected to materially build on any moves through $58 levels.
Failure to move back through to $57 levels and the morning high could see Litecoin hit reverse later in the day, with any pullback through $56.25 bringing sub-$56 levels and the day’s first major support level at $55.04 into play, more material declines dependent upon the news wires on the day.
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AUD/USD Rallies After Release of House Prices Data, RBA Minutes

TALKING POINTS – AUD/USD, RBA, EQUITIES, TRADE WARS
AUD/USD pares losses after mostly in-line housing inflation data, September RBA minutes
However, AUD/USD is still engaged in downside momentum near Dec 2016 support levels
US-China tariffs, equities’ performances, and Fed rate decision in the spotlight next two weeks
The Australian Dollar strengthened against its US namesake after local economic data crossed the wires early into Tuesday’s Asia Pacific trading session. Second quarter year-on-year housing inflation came in at -0.6%, a slight uptick from economists’ forecasts of -0.7% and a decrease from the 2.0% prior. The gauge measured quarterly was -0.7% in line with both the estimate and previous figure of -0.7%. AUD/USD’s ascent helped pare losses sustained earlier in response to the Trump administration announcement of 10% tariffs on $200B worth of Chinese goods, rising to 25% in 2019.
The rise in Aussie Dollar was further compounded by the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September 4th meeting minutes. The central bank noted that while there was no strong case for near-term adjustment in policy, the next move in the cash rate is more likely to be an increase. The monetary authority also stated that while risks remain from uncertainty abroad and low wages growth, the modest decline in the Australian Dollar has been helpful for domestic growth.
As the RBA highlighted, the sentiment-linked unit has been steadily weakening against the US Dollar for the majority of 2018. Recently, the pair broke May/December 2016 support levels near the 0.716 figure, but slightly reversed its bearish momentum. AUD/USD traders should look to signs of possible RSI divergence and confirmation by breaking the downtrend channel before next moves.
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EUR/USD Back to Key Resistance as the Nikkei Breaks Out Ahead of BoJ

Talking Points:
– Global equities remain on the move and the Nikkei has broken out from a big level of resistance over the past few trading days, adding a bit of resolution to an ascending triangle formation that’s been building over the past few months. Later tonight/early-Wednesday brings a Bank of Japan rate decision with very few expectations for anything new. Will the BoJ provide any hints or clues towards future changes towards their QE policy that just so happens to buy ETF’s of the very same indices that have been breaking out ahead of the meeting?
– In FX-land, the week started with haste but has since calmed, as both EUR/USD and the US Dollar are holding at key areas on the chart. In EUR/USD, prices have returned to the big resistance zone that we’ve been following that runs from 1.1709-1.1750. Bulls don’t look to soon let up, so at this stage a resistance break is starting to feel more likely. In the US Dollar, on the other hand, prices have built into a descending triangle formation as the Dollar continues to sit on support.
EUR/USD BACK TO CONFLUENT RESISTANCE: WILL BULLS FINALLY BREAK FREE?

At this point the primary hope is that EUR/USD is earning frequent flyer miles for all of these trips back to resistance, as we’re now seeing the third such visit to this zone over the past three weeks. We’ve been following the resistance area in EUR/USD that runs from 1.1709-1.1750; looking for a topside break to re-open the door to longer-term themes of continuation.
This area had helped to hold the highs in the latter-portion of July, but it also contains multiple Fibonacci levels in the same range. This is a confluent area as there are multiple reasons for sellers to come-in and respond, and that’s largely what we’ve been seeing over the past few weeks. But following each response, we’ve seen an increasingly strong response from bulls as buyers have started to come-in at higher-lows. On the chart below, we’ve added a blue bullish trend-line underneath the higher-lows that have printed over the past week, following last week’s support test at the 1.1530 level
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Gold Price Prediction – Gold Edges HIgher but Cannot Break Out

Gold prices moved higher on Thursday, buoyed by a drop in the dollar, as yields pulled back. US 2-year yields hit a decade old high on Wednesday and appear to have pulled back despite robust economic data. The dollar tumbled through support levels giving a boost to commodities like gold that are priced in US dollars.
Technical Analysis

Jobless Claims Drop Following Hurricane Florence
The commerce department reported that US Initial jobless claims, fell by 3,000 to 201,000 in the week ended Sept. 15. Expectations were for claims to rise by 4,000. This marks the lowest level since 1969. Continuing claims also declined by 55,000 to 1.65 million. They have fallen to the lowest level since 1973. The drop in jobless claims was mostly attributed to the disruption caused by Hurricane Florence. Since those without jobs were unable to file a claim or pick up checks, the numbers dropped more than expected. The numbers show that the jobs market remains tight and wages are on the rise. This continues to point to the Fed increasing interest rates when they meet later this month.Gold prices edged higher but were unable to push through resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,307. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,200. Prices are trading sideways which has pushed the Bollinger band width to the lowest levels seen since June which reflects declining volatility. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast-stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.
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Dow Leads an Indisputable Risk Advance; Dollar, Pound and Kiwi Top FX Movers

Talking Points:
There was little missing the risk advance this past session with the Dow notching its first record high since January
Is the Dollar following its safe haven role, trade wars or something else with its critical technical breakdown Thursday?
Brexit talk doesn’t deflate the Pound, Kiwi earns a few key breaks on GDP data, Oil drops after Trump calls out OPEC
There was an unmistakable advance in risk assets this past session. Where the previous bouts of enthusiasm were concentrated on certain assets or regions, what we’ve seen develop this week seems to span all assets with a sentiment connection. US indices took up their lead again with the S&P 500 jumping to a fresh record high while the Nasdaq’s own bullish gap fell short of a new historical milestone. The most impressive showing in this group however was earned by the Dow. The ‘blue chip’ index marked its first fresh peak since January on its most remarkable three-day run in a month. The enthusiasm didn’t stop at the borders of the US equity market. European and Asian shares earned substantial gains of their own without the same US milestones. Emerging market contagion fears have clearly faded into the backdrop with the EEM advancing into trendline resistance. The HYG junk bond ETF, the Dow Jones commodity index, US 10-year Treasury yield and Yen crosses (as carry) all pulled higher. Seeing such a wide array of assets climb in tandem is a strong sign that risk appetite is responsible. However, such a cue does not guarantee follow through. What is motivating this advance beyond loose, after-the-fact justification and FOMO (fear of missing out)? It isn’t about the break, it’s the follow through that stages profit.
DOLLAR POSTS A KEY BEARISH BREAK WITH A QUESTIONABLE FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
If we were applying the most facile interpretation of fundamental motivations, the Dollar’s drop this past session would make sense. We have long labeled this currency a ‘safe haven’, and that is still a position it occupies today. However, the Greenback is more earnestly a ‘haven of last resort’ with its sensitivity to investor appetites significantly muted at present. If anything, the benchmark currency would rise alongside risk trends. The Fed is the only major central bank that has raised its interest rate consistently (even if gradually) since before the Great Financial Crisis. Further, the Fed is expected to hike its benchmark rate again as soon as next Wednesday. So if that is written off, where is the pressure behind the USD that could lead it into a sustainable bear trend? Thematically, trade wars were waning and real rates were slowly painting a more favorable picture. On the data side, the disappointment in existing home sales was moderate but the climb in net household wealth furthered the confidence that only comes with a cash buffer. Motivation is likely arising from a collective improvement in critical counterparts, but that is a hit-or-miss driver. In short, I am a medium-term Dollar bear; but I don’t presume conviction and run from the market just because it aligns to my own beliefs.
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Dollar Support Kicks in as Market Risk Appetite Sinks

Trade war jitters return, weighing on the equity markets and commodity currencies, Trump’s 2nd general assembly speech tomorrow of little comfort.
Earlier in the Day:
There were no material stats released through the Asian session this morning, with China and Japan on holiday, leaving the markets to consider geo-political headwinds and key events and stats scheduled for the week, along with the rollout of tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods later today.
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was flat at ¥112.59, pinned back by a stronger U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar also in the red, risk aversion at the start of the week hitting the pair as trade war jitters return to the markets ahead of Trump’s address to the General Assembly at the UN on Tuesday.
In the equity markets, the ASX200 was down 0.27%, with over half of the 200 listed in the red in at the start of the week, sliding mining and metals stocks doing the damage early on, an rally in crude oil prices providing little support. Things were not much better for the Hang Seng that opened down 1.07%, the shift in sentiment hitting the tech sector once more, with Tencent down 1.5% at the open, with bank stocks also seeing heavy losses early on.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR, key stats scheduled for release are limited to August business sentiment numbers out of Germany. The Ifo Business Climate Index is forecasted to soften, with both the Business Expectations and Current Assessment numbers also forecasted to be on the softer side, which would be in line with recent stats out of Germany that have disappointed.
Outside of the numbers, ECB President Draghi is scheduled to speak this afternoon that could influence direction should any references be made to policy, Draghi having skirted the subject in speeches following the latest ECB press conference.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.03% to $1.1745, with today’s stats and Draghi to provide some direction, while risk sentiment will likely be the key driver through the day.
For the Pound, it’s a quiet day on the data front, with stats limited to CBI Industrial Trend Order figures for September that are forecasted to be Sterling negative. While we can expect a reaction to the numbers, stats are likely to continue to be overshadowed by market sentiment towards Brexit, the British Prime Minister meeting the cabinet later today for the first time since last week’s Austrian debacle.
Outside of the stats the BoE Financial Stability Report due out later this morning will also provide some direction, as the FCP identifies key risks to the global and UK economies, with the prospects of a no-deal exit from the EU likely to be a key component of the report released by the FCP. With BoE Governor Carney amongst the Committee members, it may not be pleasant reading if his last session with Cabinet ministers is anything to go by…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.08% to $1.3083 with Brexit and the BoE’s Financial Stability Report the key drivers for the day.
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US Dollar Presses Recent Low But Lacks the Punch

US Dollar tests recent lows just below 94, but cannot punch through with force. The Elliott Wave counts are mixed so be mindful of a rally.
The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from September 24, 2018. We focused on the Elliott Wave and patterns for Dollar Index, EURUSD, NZDUSD, Gold, and Silver. The patterns may subdivide into complex corrections though we are anticipating another round of round of dollar weakness over the medium term.
DOLLAR INDEX TESTS 3 WEEK LOW
US Dollar Index keeps probing its recent lows. The jury is still out as to whether this is circle wave ‘c’ lower or a complex circle wave ‘b’ that will shoot higher to finalize. With DXY yet to meaningfully break 93.63, we need to respect the potential for circle wave ‘b’ to continue higher and retest 95.25 and possibly 96. Otherwise, a meaningful break below 93.63 opens the door to 93.26 and possibly 91.72.
The bearish view is valid so long as dollar index holds below 96.98.
EURUSD ELLIOTT WAVE CHART POINTS TO MULTI-MONTH RALLY

The EURUSD chart is the opposite of DXY. The upper key level is 1.1862. Until a meaningful break of this level occurs, we are considering the move higher as a ‘b’ wave. This suggests a correction lower in a ‘c’ wave to 1.1550 and possibly 1.1450.
Since August 20, we have been anticipating a multi-month rally in EURUSD as the Elliott Wave from February 2018 concludes. If EURUSD does drop to 1.1550, then we will be looking for bullish symptoms as an ensuring rally may drive it above 1.18 towards 1.20-1.22.
Sentiment has certainly fed a movement higher in EURUSD as traders dropped from being 41% long to 37% long earlier today. This is not a meaningful move either way to offer clarity to the patterns.
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EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro softens ahead of FOMC

The Euro fell a bit against the US dollar were to kick off Wednesday, as we awaited the FOMC statement. Quite frankly, I don’t think there’s going to be much in the way of surprises, but this always causes a bit of volatility and concern. Perhaps there was a bit of profit taking ahead of the announcement.
The Euro fell towards the 1.1725 region ahead of the FOMC statement, which isn’t much of a surprise, and unfortunately you can’t read too much into, as a lot of traders would have chosen to be on the sidelines heading into that announcement. Long gone are the days of news trading, especially on the retail side as it has proven itself to be almost impossible competing against the computers. However, longer-term decisions could be made after this announcement, and I think it will show itself in the form of whether we are above the 1.18 level are not at the end of the session. If we are, then I think the market breaks out and reaches towards the 1.20 level above.
If we were to break down below the 1.17 handle, then I think will probably go to the 1.16 level, and then eventually the 1.15 level after that. Expect a lot of volatility, but I do think that over the longer-term we are probably looking towards a breakout given enough time. That doesn’t mean that is going to be easy, and there is also the possibility that we stay within the longer-term consolidation area, but we have seen so much in the way of bullish pressure as of late that I think eventually the breakout is a foregone conclusion. That could send this market towards the 1.0 level next, which is an area that has been important in the past.
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Gold Price Prediction – Prices Drop as The Dollar Rallies

Gold prices tumbled on Thursday, as traders buoyed the dollar following Wednesday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. What was clear from the Fed decision is that looking forward the Fed will continue to raise rates until 2020. When rates hit 3.375%, the Fed believes they will have hit neutrality. As the yield differential moved in favor of the greenback, the dollar rose weighing on the yellow metal. Since gold is priced in dollars, a strong dollar makes gold less attractive in other currencies. US pending home sales disappointed as supplies rose but not where demand is available.
Technical Analysis

Gold prices dropped on Thursday hitting a fresh monthly low, as the dollar gained traction. Target support on the yellow metal is seen near the August lows at 1,160. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,198. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.
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U.S. Dollar Boosted by Fed, Solid Economic Data, Weaker Euro

The U.S. Federal Reserve increased the target for the bank’s benchmark by 0.25%, to a range of 2%-2.25%. FOMC members led by Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy is strong enough that aggressive stimulus is no longer necessary. This confidence was shown by the Fed ending its description of its policy as “accommodative”. The divergence between the monetary policies of the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Bank of Japan helped drive the Dollar/Yen to its highest level since December 21. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate at a record low of 1.75 percent.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher last week, helped by expectations of rising interest rates, political turmoil in the Euro Zone and better-than-expected U.S. economic data.
U.S. Federal Reserve Raised Rates Again
On September 26, the U.S. Federal Reserve increased the target for the bank’s benchmark by 0.25%, to a range of 2%-2.25%. A majority of Federal Open Market Committee members also said they expect another rise before the end of the year. This was also the bank’s eighth rate hike since 2015, continuing its policy of gradual rate hikes.
FOMC members led by Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy is strong enough that aggressive stimulus is no longer necessary. This confidence was shown by the Fed ending its description of its policy as “accommodative”.
Powell also said the rate hike reflected the Fed’s confidence in the U.S. economy, describing it as a “particularly bright moment”. Powell also warned that a permanent shift to a “more protectionist world” would hurt the U.S. and global economies, but added that for now, he expects the overall economic impact to remain relatively modest. “We don’t see it in the numbers,” he said at a press conference in Washington after the meeting.
Fed Predictions

Fed officials now expect the U.S. economy to grow by 3.1% this year, faster than the 2.8% forecast in March, according to the projections released after the meeting. Their predictions for inflation remained unchanged at around 2%.
The FOMC forecasts showed Fed officials expect about three rate hikes in 2019 and one more in 2020, which would lift the central bank’s important Fed funds rate to about 3.4% that year.
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Euro May Fall Further as Italy Clashes With EU on Budget

TALKING POINTS – EURO, SWISS FRANC, EUROPEAN UNION, ITALY, BUDGET

Euro declining as budget talks between Italy and EU Commission approach
Spread between German and Italian 2-year bond yields notably increasing
Friction between Italy and EU laws likely to increase political risk in region
Italy’s economic nationalism has caused significant volatility in the Euro and regional bond markets. Italy’s recently released 2019 budget deficit target of 2.4% sent the single currency down, while the spread between German and Italian bond yields widened.
Italy is set to present its proposal to the EU Commission on October 20th. The regional bloc’s executive, is likely to reject their proposal however due to the regulations surrounding member states’ debt-to-GDP ratios and deficit limitations, all of which Italy is currently violating.
Because of Italy’s massive debt, they are required to follow a specific set of regulations known as the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). This requires that they commit to a target that will bring deficits and debts back to statutory levels. If they cannot propose a fiscal plan within regulatory parameters, they face the possibility of economic sanctions.
Friction between Italy’s anti-establishment government and EU technocrats is likely to continue weighing down on the Euro. The increased political risk may cause a rise in demand for regional alternatives such as the Swiss Franc and British Pound. If broader risk aversion follows, the Yen may also rise.
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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 02/10/18

It’s positive start to the day, while Ripple’s XRP gives up some ground early, investors locking in profits from the September rally.
Bitcoin Cash Sees an Early Rally
Bitcoin Cash gained 0.83% on Monday, partially reversing Sunday’s 1.32% fall, to end the day at $535.7.
An early move through to an intraday high $544 was the only bullish move of the day, the day’s high coming up short of the first major resistance level at $550.7, before easing back. Holding on to $530 levels through the rest of the morning, Bitcoin Cash was hit by an early afternoon sell-off that saw Bitcoin Cash fall to an intraday low $519 before recovering to $530 levels, the day’s low steering clear of the first major support level at $514.6.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 2.68% to $547.5, a bullish start to the day seeing Bitcoin Cash rally through the first major resistance level at $550.7 to an early morning high $554.2 before easing back.
For the day ahead, a move back through to $550 levels would support a run at the day’s second major resistance level at $557.9 to bring $560 levels into play, though for any break through the second major resistance level, the news wires will need to be crypto friendly.
Failure to move back through to $550 levels could see Bitcoin Cash hit reverse later in the day, a fall through $533 bringing a morning low $528.7 into play, while we would expect Bitcoin Cash to steer clear of the first major support level at $521.8 barring materially negative news hitting the wires.
Litecoin on the Move

Litecoin fell by 1.39% on Monday, following on from Sunday’s 0.6% loss, to end the day at $60.2, the fall marking a 4th consecutive day in the red and 8 days in the red out of the last 10.
Tracking the broader market, Litecoin fell from a start of a day intraday high $61.8 to an early afternoon intraday low $59.22 before finding support at the day’s first major support level at $59.57, Litecoin managing to break back through to $60 levels by the day’s end.
At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 1.36% to $61.04, with Litecoin recovering from an early morning low $59.91 to a morning high $61.3, the early moves leaving the major support and resistance levels untested.
For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high would bring the first major resistance level at $61.59 into play, with a hold on to $61 levels through to the early afternoon raising the prospects of a break back through to $62 levels later in the day before any pullback.Failure to hold on to $61 levels through the morning could see Litecoin give up the morning gains, a move back through $60.4 likely to bring sub-$60 levels and the day’s first major support level at $59.01 into play, any more material decline in the hands of the news wires on the day.
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Bitcoin – Bulls Fail to Deliver as the Bears Eye $6,300

Bitcoin kicks off the day in the red, with sub-$6,400 levels on the cards should a move back through to $6,500 levels not materialize by late morning.
Bitcoin fell by 1.2% on Tuesday, following Monday’s 0.34% decline, to end the day at $6,522.9, with the day’s decline marking it a 4th day in the red out of the last 5.
A positive start to the day saw Bitcoin come within reach of the first major resistance level at $6,673, with an intraday high $6,644.7 before succumbing to pressure from a broader market reversal that saw Bitcoin slide through the morning and early afternoon to an intraday low $6,467.9.
Falling through the day’s first major support level at $6,513 to come within range of the second major support level at $6,426.5, Bitcoin managed to bounce back to an afternoon high $6,589.2 before being hit by a late in the day pullback to leave Bitcoin with its heaviest lost since 25th September’s 2.15% slide.
In spite of the day’s reversal, Bitcoin’s dominance picked up to 51.9%, with some of the crypto majors seeing more material losses through the day, leading to the cryptomarket cap falling back to $218.08bn.
News of market manipulation by the WSJ would not have done Bitcoin and the broader market any favours, investors well aware that the SEC’s main concern over approving Bitcoin ETFs revolves around price manipulation.
Other negative news through the day included reports of New Zealand passing new laws that allows customs to gain access to traveller passwords for electronic devices or impose a fine. While the news is less related to traveller’s investment holdings and more to do with data storage, the wires took this as a potential threat to the privacy enjoyed by cryptocurrency investors.
Of greater concern will be the continued reports of price manipulation, which may pin back the hopes of Bitcoin ETF approvals near-term, the SEC’s position on Bitcoin ETFs considered a key driver for Bitcoin and the broader market, alongside sentiment towards the regulatory landscape.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.17% to $6,451.1, Tuesday’s late reversal continuing into the early hours of this morning. Bitcoin has fallen from a start of a day high $6,545.1 to a morning low $6,424.6, sliding through the first major support level at $6,445.63 before finding support.
For the day ahead, a move back through to $6,500 levels would signal a possible afternoon rebound, with Bitcoin needing to move through the morning high $6,545.1 to bring $6,600 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $6,622.43 into play, though we can expect Bitcoin to face plenty of resistance on any run at $6,600 levels later in the day.
Failure to move back through to $6,500 levels could see Bitcoin take a bigger hit later in the day, a pullback through the morning low $6,424.6 likely to bring $6,300 levels and the day’s first second major support level at $6,368.37 into play before any recovery, with the news wires certainly capable of delivering a more material decline.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Increased Demand for Risk

AUD/USD and NZD/USD price action early in the session suggests traders may have found support. The lack of follow-through to the downside may be indicating that bearish traders are becoming reluctant to sell weakness at current price levels and after a steep decline. The AUD/USD is trying to establish support inside a retracement zone at .7200 to .7172. The key area for the NZD/USD is .6600 to .6576.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading slightly lower early Wednesday, but threatening to turn higher for the session. Technical factors may be contributing to the early strength as well as safe haven buying. The longer-term fundamentals are still bearish, however, due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the currencies may be ripe for a short-covering rally.
At 0240 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7185, down 0.0001 or -0.01% and the NZD/USD is at .6588, down 0.0005 or -0.07%.
Increased demand for higher-yielding assets may also be contributing to the gains. The Euro is trading higher after several days of weakness tied to escalating financial issues between Italy and Euro Zone officials. This may be fueling today’s short-covering rally. U.S. equity markets are also firming in pre-market trading.
In economic news, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sees the U.S. economy generating highly optimistic expectations, with the unusual combination of low unemployment and inflation fueling hopes for an extended expansion.
Early Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. Although it expressed concerns over the weakening housing market, it still showed confidence in economic and job growth.
New Zealand business confidence came in much lower than expected, raising concerns that the next major move by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would be a rate cut.
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Aussie Record Trade Surplus Does Little to Slow the Greenback

The Dollar’s on a tear, only the Japanese Yen managing to hold on in the early hours, with a record trade surplus out of Australia doing little for the AUD.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was limited to trade August figures out of Australia
For the Aussie Dollar, Australia’s trade surplus jumped from a revised A$1.548bn to A$1.604bn in August according to the ABS.
Imports were flat for the month, while exports rose by 1%, month-on-month.
The increase in exports was attributed to a 13% (A$229m) rise in the export of non-monetary gold and a 3% (A$134m) rise in the export of rural goods that were partially offset by a 1% (A$222m) fall in the export of non-rural goods.
On the import front, the import of capital goods rose by 9% (A$569m), which was offset by a 41% (A$289m) slide in the import of non-monetary gold and a 2% (A$264m) fall in the import of intermediate and other merchandise goods.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70945 to $0.70994 upon release of the figures, before easing to $0.7093 at the time of writing, down 0.14% for the session, the jump in U.S Treasury yields offsetting any material upside from this morning’s stats.
Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen, was up by 0.17% to ¥114.33 against the U.S Dollar at the time of writing, the Yen finding some support to partially recover from the overnight slide that came off the back of yet more impressive stats out of the U.S. For the Kiwi Dollar, a jump in U.S Treasury yields weighed, the Kiwi down 0.29% to $0.6495 at the time of writing.
In the equity markets, the Nikkei was in the red, reversing early gains, down 0.22% at the time of writing, the index finding little support from the Yen’s slide to ¥114 levels against the Dollar and the overnight gains in the U.S equity markets, while the ASX200 also in positive territory, up 0.66% at the time of writing. For the Hang Seng, the slide continued early, the Hang Seng down 1.06%, with investors having nowhere to hide early on, trade war jitters continuing to weigh.
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Gold Price Prediction – Gold Consolidates Following Robust US Data

Gold prices failed to move higher and continue to trade in a tight range. The dollar continued to gain traction against most major currencies following better than expected jobs and services data released in the US on Wednesday. Yields surged placing an underlying bid under the dollar, which weighed on gold prices.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices attempted to move higher but ran into resistance near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,208. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,196 and then an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,181. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index recently generated a crossover buy signal. This occur as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).
The Dollar is Buoyed By Strong US Data
The dollar gained traction which capped the upside for the yellow metal. ADP reported that private companies added 230k more jobs in September which was the higher gains since February. Expectations were for the US to add 185K jobs this past month. There were strong gains in construction which grew by 34K as goods-producing industries overall contributed 46K to the final count. Job gains were spread across industries, as services led with 184,000. Manufacturing added just 7,000, its weakest reading in a year. Most of the job gains were in small to mid-size companies which added 99K jobs. Large businesses added 75,000. The August private payrolls count was revised up by 5,000.
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NFP and Wage Growth Figures to Put the USD in the Spotlight

Consumer spending in both Australia and Japan improved but not by enough to shift sentiment as focus shifts to U.S labour market stats.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data released through the Asian session this morning included August household spending figures out of Japan and August retail sales figures out of Australia.
For the Japanese Yen, August household spending impressed, with spending surging by 3.5%, month-on-month, coming in ahead of a forecasted 0.4% rise, whilst more than reversing July’s 1.1% slide. Year-on-year, spending jumped by 2.8%, which was better than a forecasted stall, following a 0.1% rise in July.
The year-on-year increase in spending was attributed to a rise in spending on:
Education (+25%); transportation & communication (+15.1%); medical care (+7.1%) and housing (+6.4%), with increased spending also seen on clothing & footwear and furniture & household utensils.
Dragging on spending, year-on-year, included a fall in spending on:
Culture & recreation (-4.1%); fuel, light & water charges (-1.8%) and food (-1.5%).
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥113.866 to ¥113.884 against the Dollar upon release of the figures, before easing to ¥114.01 at the time of writing, down 0.08% for the session.
For the Aussie Dollar, retail sales rose by 0.3% in August, which was in line with forecasts, whilst improving on July’s stall, according to figures released by the ABS.
5 of the 6 retail industries recorded a rise in sales, with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.7%) leading the way.
A rise in sales was also reported for clothing, footwear & personal retailing (0.8%); other retailing (0.4%), department stores (0.9%) and household goods retailing (0.2%).
Food retailing was reported to be relatively unchanged.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70680 to $0.70754 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.7076 at the time of writing, flat for the session.
Elsewhere, the Kiwi Dollar continued to struggle, down 0.05% at $0.6476.
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GBP Up, AUD/USD Price May Fall with Stocks. Brazil Election Eyed

ASIA PACIFIC MARKET OPEN – GBP/USD, BREXIT, BRAZIL ELECTION, AUD/USD, NIKKEI 225
British Pound prices soared amidst Brexit latest as USD gains took a breather for now
Emerging markets, local stocks eye outcome of first round of Brazil’s presidential vote
AUD/USD may fall with stocks in APAC trade while pro-risk Japanese Yen appreciates.
On Friday, the British Pound extended pronounced gains against its major counterparts for a second day in a row. Initially, Sterling was buoyed by reports that a Brexit deal is ‘very close’ amidst an offer from the EU for a free-trade deal. The details of the proposal will be presented by EU Chief Negotiator Michael Barnier this Wednesday.
Additional GBP’s gain could be attributed to a pullback in the US Dollar on a rather mixed jobs report as unemployment fell but total hires missed expectations. Adding more downside pressure to the US Dollar, relatively speaking, was a somewhat solid jobs report out of Canada. The country added 63.3k employees in September which was the most this year so far and since December 2017.
The Canadian Dollar popped on these statistics but gains were somewhat restrained in the aftermath. While the nation surprised markets with total job increases, hourly earnings for permanent employees only ‘clocked in’ at 2.2% y/y. This was the weakest pace of growth in one year exactly. Sentiment-linked currency were generally under pressure Friday, and for that matter the majority of last week.
The S&P 500 dropped as much as 0.97% over the course of the past five days, marking its worst performance in a month. Developing nations fared even worse. The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF dropped a whopping 4.84%, marking its worst decline since early February. Simultaneously, US government bond yields soared to multiyear highs, reflecting prospects of tightening global credit conditions.
As we get started with a new week, the markets will be eyeing who will be the remaining two candidates from the first round of Brazil’s presidential election that takes place on Sunday. There may be some positivity from local stock markets and the BRL initially should Jair Bolsonaro, of the Social Liberal Party,win.
Keep a close eye on how Asia Pacific benchmark indexes react to weaknesses in European and US stocks from Friday’s session. Declines in the Nikkei 225 could bolster the anti-risk Japanese Yen as it did previously. Meanwhile pro-risk currencies such as the Australian Dollar could keep suffering. Both AUD/USD and GBP/AUD are eyeing new levels after breaking critical barriers last week.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bullish Traders Need Higher PPI to Justify Recent Price Surge

Today’s U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report is expected to move the USD/JPY. It is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.2%, up from the previously reported -0.1%. Core PPI is also expected to show a rise of 0.2%, also up from -0.1%.
The Dollar/Yen continues to trade sideways for a third session on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields dipped from yesterday’s multi-year highs, and on dampened appetite for risk. Domestic data is influencing the price action. Additionally, investors are keeping an eye on today’s U.S. economic reports as well as Thursday’s U.S. Treasury’s currency report.
At 0356 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 113.025, up 0.066 or +0.06%.
On Tuesday, U.S. government debt investors continued to ride the wave fueled by last week’s hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Traders returned from Monday’s Columbus Day holiday by driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note above 3.25 percent in early trading, returning to its highest level since 2011. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose above 3.43 percent, its highest level since 2014. The 10-year finished the session at 3.21 percent and the 30-year at 3.375.
U.S. equity indexes finished mostly lower on Tuesday after posting a volatile two-sided session. Investors were mostly worried about rapidly rising interest rates ahead of the start of third quarter earnings season. Investor uncertainty helped the major indexes swing between positive and negative territory several times throughout the session.
In economic news, it was another light day on Tuesday with the NFIB Small Business Index coming in at 107.9, below the 108.9 forecast. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism reading was 57.8, well above the 54.6 estimate.
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Bitcoin – Are the Bulls Over Optimistic about the SEC and Bitcoin ETFs?

It’s back in the red for Bitcoin, with $6,600 once again a line in the sand for the bulls and the bears for the day.Bitcoin fell by 0.15% on Tuesday, partially reversing Monday’s 0.99% rise, to end the day at $6,663.It was a bearish first half of the day, with Bitcoin pulling back from a start of a day intraday high $6,682 to an early afternoon intraday low $6,605, Bitcoin relying on support at $6,600 to steer clear of sub-$6,600 levels for the first time since 23rd September. The early morning high came up well short of $6,700 levels and the first major resistance level at $6,741.23 and more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, red across the cryptomarket board pinning the Bitcoin bulls back on the day.The cryptomarket reversal through the day saw Bitcoin’s dominance creep back up to 52.3%, while the total market cap for the cryptomarket eased back to sub-$220bn.On the news front, the IMF weighed in on the cryptomarket on Tuesday, warning of the rapid rise in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market and their possible adverse effects on the global financial system.The IMF added that the continued cyber-attacks and security breaches posed an additional threat, particularly with blockchain tech being used to facilitate cross border transactions. While the comments from the IMF are nothing new, the timing is of greater significance, as the G20 and others look to introduce a regulatory framework for the cryptomarket. Regulators and governments are certainly mindful of the jurisdictional issues, the virtual nature of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies enabling investors to flout rules and regulations, which ultimately led to the G20 to explore and introduce a unified framework.Judging by Bitcoin’s failure to recover losses for the year, Bitcoin having been sitting at $17,000 levels in early January, a lack of positive news, uncertainty over what lies ahead from a regulatory stand point and pending SEC decisions on the Bitcoin ETF applications are all working against Bitcoin and the broader market, in spite of the more bullish taking a more optimistic view on the SEC’s pending decisions.
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Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets continue to consolidate

Gold markets pulled back initially during the day on Wednesday but reached higher after bouncing from the $1188 level. This is a market that continues to be sideways as we have seen over the last several days, and I think it makes sense that we continue more of the same as there is massive support just below.
Gold markets have been sideways for several days, and it appears that the markets are simply waiting for some type of catalyst to go higher. I think that the gold market continues to grind sideways in the meantime, offer a nice range bound trading opportunities. If we can break above the $1195 level, the market should continue to go much higher. Overall, I think that the market will then go looking towards the $1200 level, and that’s an area that I would expect to be a juicy target for buyers. We need to see the US dollar calm down a bit, as it has been a bit overbought.
I think the $1185 level is crucial, and if we can break down below there, then we could go much lower. The $1180 level underneath would be the next target, and then perhaps $1175. That would only be on a move higher in the value of the US dollar, something that I think is going to be difficult as the EUR/USD pair is close to so many important support level. I think that given enough time, Gold will pick up value, so I am more bullish than bearish but I also recognize that it’s going to take a bit of momentum to finally break out of the short term consolidation. Buying dips has worked over the last couple of days, so I will continue to do that going forward.
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AUD/USD Extends Bullish Series Ahead RBA Financial Stability Review

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS
AUD/USD is little changed despite the below-forecast print for the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), but recent price action raises the risk for larger rebound in the exchange rate as aussie-dollar extends the bullish sequence from earlier this week.
AUD/USD EXTENDS BULLISH SERIES AHEAD RBA FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
Fresh developments coming out of the U.S. economy may do little to alter the near-term outlook for AUD/USD as updates to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are anticipated to show the headline reading for inflation slipping to 2.4% from 2.7% per annum in August, and another batch of lackluster data prints may fuel a larger rebound in aussie-dollar as it limits the Federal Reserve’s scope to extend the hiking-cycle.
Keep in mind, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on a preset course in 2018 as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. are widely anticipated to deliver another 25bp rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in December, and Fed officials may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the central bank achieves its dual mandate for monetary policy.
However, the narrowing threat for above-target price growth may force the FOMC to soften its hawkish forward-guidance for monetary policy as ‘both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent,’ and Fed officials may continue to project a longer-run neutral rate of 2.75% to 3.00% especially as the shift in U.S. trade policy clouds the economic outlook.
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Bears Drag S&P 500 Below 200-Day Average, Risk Aversion Dangerously Broad

Talking Points:
Despite disparate performances Thursday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trade below their 200-day moving averages
The intensity of risk aversion across assets despends on their starting point, but there is no mistaking the risk aversion
While capital markets are sliding, the safe haven Dollar has dropped, Euro is ignoring Italian pressures and Pound eyes Brexit
RISK AVERSION PERSISTS AND THE THREAT OF TREND GROWS
We have closed out a second day of unmistakable risk aversion for the broader financial markets. In the progression of reversing course from a decade-long bull trend, we have checked off yet another box. With fundamental measures of value long ago deteriorating underneath high-flying asset prices, the real speculative traction began some months ago when we started to register a divergence in the performance of the seemingly unflappable US equity indices and many other speculative assets (global equities, emerging market assets, junk bonds, carry trade, etc.) that were starting to take on water. When the S&P 500 and its peers started to sink these past few week, it would raise concern over a contagion that set the stage for concerted selling. That is what we are currently registering. While the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 losses this past session were not as intense as Wednesday’ 3-4 percent tumble, they were nevertheless an unwelcome consistency of pain. The S&P 500 has slid below its 200-day moving average for the first time in months (only the second time since June 2016) and now all three stand at the cusp of overturning the leg of the long bull run that found traction after the US election. It is worth noting the disparity in performance between the likes of the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq. The latter is a more concentrated representative of the top performing tech sector, yet was holding up relatively well – though it is already on pace for its worst month since the height of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. In the contrast between US indices and other risk assets, it is tempting to find comfort in the more reserved losses. However, the months of losses preceding this bout of intensity means they have less premium to shed quickly. It should not be relied upon as a signal that risk trends are going to imminently stick a landing.
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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 12/10/18

It’s a positive start to the day, as the bulls go in search of a relief rally, though there are still plenty of reasons for early gains to reverse.
Bitcoin Cash Tanks
The reversal continued on Thursday, with Bitcoin Cash tumbling by 16.02%, off the back of Wednesday’s 0.85% fall, to end the day at $433.4.
A broad based market sell-off at the start of the day did most of the damage, Bitcoin Cash tumbling from a day high $516.1 to an early afternoon low $438.6, before finding some support. Things didn’t improve through the latter part of the day, the downward trend continuing from an early afternoon high $455.8, with Bitcoin Cash sliding to a late in the day intraday low $428.3 before recovering to $430 levels.
The day’s major resistance levels were left untested, whilst Bitcoin Cash slid through the day’s major support levels to leave the extended bearish trend firmly intact.
Declines through the day for Bitcoin Cash and the broader market were news driven, with a U.S Senate hearing and an FSB review of the cryptocurrency market doing the damage on the day.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 1.05% to $438.4, with Bitcoin Cash managing to recover from an early morning low $427.8 to a morning high $438.8, the early pullback an extension of Thursday’s sell-off. The moves through the early morning left the day’s major support and resistance levels untested.
For the day ahead, a move through to $460 levels would support a run at the first major resistance level at $490.23 to bring $500 levels into play, though we can expect Bitcoin Cash to face plenty of resistance on any run at $490 levels, to limit the upside on the day
Failure to move through to $460 levels could see Bitcoin Cash hit reverse later in the day, a pullback through the morning low $427.8 likely to see Bitcoin Cash at sub-$410 levels before any recovery, the day’s first major support level at $402.43 unlikely to be tested barring materially negative news hitting the wires.
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Risk Aversion Hits ahead of Italy’s Showdown in Brussels

Brexit jitters hit the Pound, with Italy’s budget delivery to the EU later today weighing on the EUR, as risk aversion returns to the markets.
Earlier in the Day:
Economic data scheduled for release through the latter part of the Asian session are on the lighter side this morning, with key stats limited to new loan growth numbers out of China and finalized August industrial production figures out of Japan.
Out of China, expectations are that September will see a rise in new loans, an easing in lending standards anticipated to offset the negative effects of the ongoing trade war between the U.S and China. While loan growth will be considered a positive, there will be some concern over any rise in China’s corporate debt levels, particularly following the IMF’s latest downward revision to economic growth forecasts.
For the Japanese Yen, industrial production is forecasted to rise by 0.7% in August, which would be in line with prelim figures, whilst reversing July’s 0.2% decline. We would expect the stats to have a muted effect on the Yen however, with market risk aversion at the start of the week overshadowing the numbers.
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up 0.12% to ¥112.08 against the U.S Dollar, risk aversion driving demand for the safe haven at the start of the week. Elsewhere, the shift in risk appetite left the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar in the red, the Aussie Dollar down 0.13% at $0.7105 and the Kiwi Dollar down 0.08% at $0.6502.
In the equity markets, the sell-off resumed in earnest, with the Nikkei and ASX200 sliding by 1.59% and by 1.07% respectively at the time of writing, with the Hang Seng and CSI300 down 1.15% and 0.82% respectively, the losses coming in spite of Friday’s gains in the U.S, with the U.S futures pointing to a return to the red.
Concerns over the state of the global economy weighed at the start of the week, with negative sentiment over the weekend influencing risk appetite through the session, an IMF-World Bank meeting over the weekend ending with a call for countries to be prepared for risks ahead, stemming from rising geo-political tensions and the ongoing trade war between the U.S and China.
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AUD/USD Xtreamforex Technical Forex Forecast-October 16,2018

Based on the early price motion, the course of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is in all likelihood to be determined by trader reaction to the up trending gain perspective at 0.7112. this attitude has been guiding the marketplace higher considering that October 5.
the Australian dollar is buying and selling almost flat and inside the day gone by’s range. this suggests investor indecision and coming near near volatility. in advance in the session, the reserve financial institution of Australia launched its present day financial coverage minutes.
based totally at the early charge movement, the direction of the AUD /USD the rest of the consultation is in all likelihood to be determined by dealer response to the up trending gain attitude at .7112. this perspective has been guiding the marketplace higher on the grounds that October 5.
holding the attitude at .7112 will indicate the presence of buyers. if this creates enough upside momentum then search for consumers to take out .7149. this must lead to a take a look at of the down trending gain perspective at .7174, accompanied carefully by means of the 50% level at .7178.
USD/JPY -Forex Technical Analysis -October 16,2018
The USD/JPY based on the current price at 111.990, the rest of the session direction of the USD/JPY is likely to be determined by the short term Fibonacci level at 111.984 by trader reactions .The USD/JPY is buying and selling higher early Tuesday. The foreign exchange pair is being supported with the aid of accelerated call for the better danger assets more impregnable US treasury yields and a slightly higher US Dollar on Monday, a weaker inventory marketplace ,a dip in US treasury yields and the weaker than anticipated US-retail income helped make the Japanese yen a extra desirable currency.
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UK inflation and Brexit conversation put the GBP in the center ,with one on EUR

The GBP and EUR today,we can expect some focus on the FOMC minutes because of that the EUR putting focus Brexit and Italy. Moreover, in early part of the day the geo-political risk and leaving market risk sentiment provide direction of the majors and there is no material stats released via Asian session in early morning .The economic data for the EUR schedule is released according to the European session in September Inflation the inflation headline the EUR rise in the line with month on month forecasts and the annual rate of inflation is continue to sit well below ECB’s target .
GBP/USD Buyers attempting to keep the wheels upright in front of significant EU summit UK CPI
The GBP/USD is exchanging towards the drawbacks in early Wednesday activity testing into 1.3170 in front of the London market session.an endless barrage of Brexit headlines is sent by sterling traders drift the comments as well from EU and UK leaders .In yesterday’s session the UK wages data is reported helped to bolster the GBP somewhat the overall mood of market run up in Wednesday and EU leadership summit that day where Brexit will be the top billing for the day.According to the Xtreamforex anticipation a break through could be mentioned by 1.3257 level its all about Brexit the market changes a deal will be perceives.
USD/JPY Nomura raises with estimate to 115.00 at the end of the year
Nomura raises its USD/JPY forecast at the end of the year .The dollar yen pairing hits 115.00 on the December end .According to expectations of xtreamforex the nomura calling for the USD/JPY to go up and reach to 118.00 by march 2019 and with the end of the year 2019 it will call of 120.00,and revised upward from 110.00.
Gold is at cross-streets while beneath R1 $1,234.58/oz
Gold is gotten the idle capital that speculators removed values following a week ago’s defeat on wall street and had gained by the shortcoming of the greenback that has been trying the bull’s responsibilities at 95 figure in the DXY. According to the bulls are looking for a break and holding above 1233 ahead of the 252127.2% .However a break of the 95 handle the drawback will be unquestionably be an or more for gold and products certainly be a plus for gold commodities in general.
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EUR/USD endeavoring to hit the brakes almost 1.1500 in the past FOMC result

The EUR/USD trading price find itself on the downside .European market session handle heading into majors testing in just south of the 1.1500 on Thursday on another round of the EU’s ECOF in meetings .The EUR saw decreases in yesterday’s exchanging slipping consistently from the day’s high of 1.1580 and the merchant picked up energy heading through Wednesday US session after the US FOMC created a headily hawkish minute report,loaning some additional power behind the greenback to bring the fiber down into 1.1500 key specialized figure ,a key level that the EUR/USD has wound up exchanging into decent piece . On yesterday’s meetings the ideas of two sides reaching on inter mostly wash and was largely dominated by the expectations of Brexit .According to Xtreamforex the economic calendar is fairly going narrow for the EUR with the German wholesale price index.
GBP/USD Focus on UK retail deals and conversion of half Fib and 100-day MA
The GBP/USD pair having lower high at 1.3236 on Monday with the defensive in Asia .All the more critically ,the pullback from the October 12 high of 1.3258 has killed the bullish standpoint set forward by the bull signal breakout affirmed on October 5.Anticipation of Xtreamforex for September retail sales to predict at 0.4 average on these month with the rising value of 0.3 in August.A bullish breakout would be confirmed by a big margin the pound may pickup a bid for the retail sales and it will goes above 1.3258 high.Still the pair manage and trying to defend the key support at 1.3090.
GBP/JPY retail sales tests rising trend line in 2 months
The GBP/JPY rising trend line support in Asia by holding the key crossing the flashing red in Asia .The trend line bolster is holding ground regardless of the hazard avoidance in the Asia stocks and the subsequent interest for the counter hazard JPY. As of composing ,China shanghai composite its revealing a 1.4 percent drop and the stocks in Australia are down 0.20 percent .Moreover ,the EU and UK mediators keep on batting for a leap forward on key issues ,basically the Irish outskirt issue holding the GBP.
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EUR/USD: Downside uncovered as Italy yield spreads spike ,US-DE spreads keep on rising

The EUR/USD dropped to 1.1449 yesterday the least level since October 9 and looks set to drop further to 1.14 as different yields spreads are ascending in the EUR negative way.For instance the spread between the 10-years Italian authorities security yield its German counterparts rose to 3.25 percent yesterday ,the most abnormal amount since 2013 and could rise further to new multiyear highs today as the European Union(EU) isn’t content with the Italy arranged spending deficiency.Moreover ,the two year US -German yield differential rose to crisp multi-decade high of 353 premise guides yesterday and looks set towards rise further as the fed minutes discharged not long ago uncovered a developing agreement among the authorities on the requirement for above non-partisan rates.The last but not the least the support 1.1432 could be breached soon.
GBP/USD is moving towards two-month rising trend line on Brexit impasse
The GBP/USD pair is follow the downward trends to 1.3015 and could goes to the further to key trend line support Brexit impose today .At present day the money match is exchanging at 1.3021 and the help of the trend line interfacing the Aug 15 low and to October 4 low is situated at 1.30 Strikingly ,1.30 is additionally the 76.4 percent Fib retracement level of the rally from 1.2921/1.3258 .The Irish border solves the problems and the key issues of the UK and EU negotiators to extending the transition to allow more time UK Theresa may signaled yesterday .Thus, a bounce assuming any ,in the GBP/USD will probably be fleeting .Should the combine close underneath 1.30 ,a more profound auction to 1.2905(61.8% Fib R of Aug 15 low/Sep 20 High) could be in the offing.
USD/JPY bulls going up against the bears and assaulting trend line opposition
USD/JPY is tracking trend line obstructions .USD/JPY is tracking up the offer again yet stays overwhelming at the obstructions line the underneath the key levels where supply is noted. Furthermore, USD/JPY is as of now exchanging at 112.30 having recapped from a low of 111.95 on the way to the 21 hrs SMA situated at 112.86.In any case, US stocks didn’t care for the resonations from around the globe as for the possibility that the Fed could be on course to go past the nonpartisan rate, (3%) following Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. The match slid vigorously from that point to a low of 111.95 with supply coming in around the Tenkan and Kijun lines at 112.79 and 112.87 – So it is currently evident that the yen remains the main asylum money – (USD/CHF mobilizes to drift highs).
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EUR/USD: Recovery rally to double base neck area likely if Italy-German spread dips under 300 bps

The EUR/USD combine made a bullish outside-day at the key help of 1.1432 on Friday,flagging the pullback from the October 16 high of 1.1622 has likely finished. After the acceptance 1.1622 above found and it will only confirmed on double bottom bullish reversal. Moreover, If EUR/USD pair goes above 1.1535 with prospects of rally to 1.1622 with high bullish outside day candle o Friday. On Friday, the evaluations office moody’s minimized Italy’s credit rank from Baa2 to Baa3 yet kept up stable viewpoint .The speculators were stressed that Moody’s may cut the country beneath venture review.Essentially ,Italian markets moody’s decision fell short of investors goes on worst expectations today. According to the Xtreamforex expectations the spread between 10 years Italy and German yield will likely goes down and the reached below 300 basis points which are lifting EUR/USD on peak.
AUD/USD back more than 0.7100 after brief Monday plunge
The AUD/USD brought a fast execution down to 0.7087 in Monday volume compelled early exchanging session before re -coupling back over the 0.7100 handle, and the match is currently exchanging barely short of 0.7110 as more extensive markets impulse start driving requests over the table.The US-China trade war to Saudi-Arabia is continued geo-political tensions slaying of the journalist critical of the royal family to the US impending rampage are all collecting at the top of the barrel keeping the major Fx pairs in holding patterns as the new trading weeks get underway. Australia residential economy keeps on adjusting on a blade edge ,with developing unease at potential aftermath from the US exchange war ,which undermines to keep hampering development prospects for the Chinese economy.
USD/JPY Recovers misfortunes as S&P 500 prospects trim losses
The USD/JPY combine has re- coupled from intraday lows and could transcend key obstructions of of 112.73 if the S&P 500 fates twin positive and European report gains.Earlier today, the USD/JPY pair trading largely unchanged on the day at 112.57 or having hit low of 112.35. The decay saw in early Asia was likely connected with the 0.55% drop in the S&P 500 prospects and the subsequent ascent popular for the counter hazard JPY. BE that as it may, the list fates are presently exchanging level to the positive pivot may have helped USD/JPY recover balance.
Gold administered by the DXY with bulls looking at the break on the 96 handle
Gold was balancing out on the 21-4 hrs SMA on Friday and stays in a bullish area there are still with the DXY losing its balance by 0.3% finishing a week ago at 95.68 after an attractive 0.6% keep running for the long stretch of the October up until now.The greenback is still up multiyear to date and stays troublesome to the gold bulls considering the Fed’s way of fixing underscored in the most recent FOMC minutes.However, Be that as it may, there are lot of dangers out there which urging financial specialists to pull capital from worldwide values search for the sanctuary status that gold offers and bids to the speculators.
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Xtreamforex USD/JPY Price forecasts- US dollar separates against Japanese yen in hazard off move

The US dollars are starting to see more risk averse trading and broke down during trading session on Tuesday.The market looks extremely unsafe at this level ,yet this combine has a lot of help underneath , so underneath so its probably that we will keep on discovering purchaser in the long run.The US dollars breaking towards the 112 levels it does goes down significantly during the Tuesday session. Its obvious by our expectations that we are starting to wind up exceptionally touch in global markets generally speaking ,the USD/JPY combine will be a channel with regards to the outflow of this.
Gold Price Forecasts – Gold markets rally against amid Tuesday sessions
The God markets show extreme agitation in general and continues to attract safe haven flows as the markets. Gold market looks prepared to reach towards the $1250 level , however we have given back a touch of the auditions late in the day.Gold markets have unmistakably broken over the multi day moving normal, and now look liable to keep on going higher dependent on the bullish activity that we have seen. As of right now, I trust that the market will presumably reach towards the $1250 level, a zone that has pulled in the two purchasers and venders previously. As of now, on the every day diagram it looks as though we are endeavoring to skip around between $25 levels, and I think with the multi day EMA swinging to the upside, clearly Gold is prepared to make a genuine endeavor at a breakout. In any case, I would search for here and now pullbacks with the end goal to get somewhat of an esteem play and obviously show signs of improvement passage point.
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Forex today: chance wobbles on exchange war strains, dollar for the most part higher near YTD highs

Forex today was about value costs where Wall Street moved over and made for a session of two parts, finishing off with support of the bears. The greenback was for the most part higher while vulnerabilities kept on constraining the euro – The DXY exchanged near YTD highs. Along these lines, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 245.05, or 0.99%, to 24,443.26, the S&P 500 dropped 17.43 points, or 0.66%, to 2,641.26 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 116.92 points, or 1.63%, to 7,050.29. The USD was for the most part more grounded against the G10. US treasury yields lifted over the bend with 10-year up 2 bps. EUR/USD is treading bearish waters without a real existence ring with cost gathering at the highest point of the bearish channel and just beneath the 4hr 21-SMA.

Xtreamforex – EUR/USD levels to watch

Support levels: (1.1350) (1.1328) (1.1294)

Resistance levels: (1.1406) (1.1440) (1.1462)
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EUR/USD has dissolved here and now falling trend line in front of US NFP and wage development discharge

The EUR/USD cleared a key falling trend line jump yesterday, opening entryways for a more grounded restorative rally. Non farm payrolls presumably bounced back by 190,000 employments in October and normal hourly procuring likely expanded by 0.2 percent on the month. The EUR/USD match moved over 1.14 yesterday not surprisingly, affirming an upside break of the trend line associating the Oct. 16 high and Oct. 22 high. The upside break of the corner to corner opposition has opened the ways to a more grounded recuperation rally toward the following obstruction of 1.1463 (Oct. 4 low).The US dollar, be that as it may, will probably get a solid offer if the US information features a get in wage-value expansion, adding confidence to the Fed’s view that financing cost arrangement would need to turn prohibitive for quite a while.
Xtreamforex – EUR/USD levels to watch
Support levels: (1.1335) (1.1259) (1.1215)
Resistance levels: (1.1455) (1.1499) (1.1575)

GBP/USD hoping to cling to 1.3000 with US NFP in the barrel
The GBP/USD is exchanging firmly close to the 1.3000 noteworthy handle after Thursday’s rally on revived Brexit trusts, and the Cable heads into Friday’s activity in front of another guard US NFP appearing.The Sterling saw some truly necessary lift yesterday after features broke that some advancement may at long last be being made on EU-UK Brexit arrangements; yesterday observed EU pioneers in Brussels calm monetary markets with the declaration that European merchants will keep up access to basic UK subsidiaries settling components in case of a muddled Brexit, yet the features were adequate for Pound bulls to start a concise rally. Weight on the US Dollar in the more extensive forex markets cape sent the Greenback bring down no matter how you look at it, and the GBP/USD is appreciating a relief from typical offering.
Xtreamforex – GBP/USD levels to watch
Support levels: (1.2825) (1.2651) (1.2551)
Resistance levels: (1.3099) (1.3199) (1.3373)
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EUR/USD: Trapped in a falling wedge in front of the US midterm races

The EUR/USD has graphed a falling wedge design on the day by day diagram. The US midterm races are required to create a part congress. Falling wedge breakout likely on Democrat triumph in the two houses. Caught in a falling wedge design, the EUR/USD is at present exchanging at 1.1384.The cash combine was emphatically offered Friday and watched set to take out the upper edge of the wedge, before a superior than-anticipated non-cultivate payrolls number and the disarray encompassing the US-China exchange bargain put an offer under the greenback. On the other hand, a Democrat triumph in the two chambers may hurt the USD and could yield a falling wedge breakout in the EUR/USD (a bear-to-bull incline change). This is on account of Democrats need to raise the corporate expense rate to support social projects.
Xtreamforex – EUR/USD levels to watch

Support levels – (1.1354) (1.1321) (1.1269)

Resistance levels – (1.1439) (1.1491) (1.1524)
GBP/USD falls back underneath 1.30 on clashing Brexit reports
The British Pound is feeling the draw of gravity on Telegraph report. The GBP/USD is back underneath 1.30, having hit a high of 1.3023 prior today. The British Pound is seeing a strong two-path business in Asia. The cash combine discovered offers in early Asian in light of a Sunday Times report expressing that Prime Minister May has arranged an all-UK traditions manage the EU, which would resolve the Irish outskirt issue. These clashing reports are entangling matters for the GBP dealers. At press time, the money combine is exchanging at 1.2990, having timed a high and low of 1.3023 and 1.2986, separately. The mental level of 1.30 has been put to test since Thursday, however a persuading close over that level has so far stayed subtle.
Xtreamforex – GBP/USD levels to watch

Support levels – (1.2932) (1.2896) (1.2842)
Resistance levels – (1.3022) (1.3076) (1.3112)
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EUR/USD broadens increases above 1.1400 in front of US mid-term races

The EUR/USD match broke to the upside amid the American session and achieved a new every day high at 1.1423. Close to the finish of the session was merging increases, close to the best and 70 pips over the low, in front of the US mid-term races. The ongoing move higher occurred in the midst of a slide of the US dollar in all cases. The DXY dropped to 96.26 and it was going to post the most reduced close since October 23 as US yields pulled back. US decisions on Tuesday could impact on the US dollar relying upon the outcomes that are probably going to begin turning out amid Wednesday’s Asian session. Likewise on Wednesday, the FOMC will begin its 2-day meeting. No adjustment in rates is normal and the effect on business sectors could be minor thinking about that there won’t be a question and answer session.
Xtreamforex EUR/USD levels to watch
Support levels – (1.1368.)( 1.1328) ( 1.1300)
Resistance levels – (1.1436) (1.1464) (1.1504)
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Technical Overview of EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF Currency Pairs

EUR USD

The EUR traded Higher against the USD and closed at 1.122.

The New Home Sales indicator reflects sales of newly constructed residences in the United States in the specified month. It measures new single-family home sales.

The indicator is used for measuring the US housing market conditions. Index growth may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

According to the Analysis, Four hour chart shows that the pair is expected to find support at 1.12023, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11848. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12492, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12786.

Previous Day range was 46.9 and Current Day Range is 16.3.

GBP USD

The GBP traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.304.

United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product q/q is the key indicator of the national economy growth. The index shows changes in the market value of goods and services produced in the country in the given quarter compared to the previous quarter. The GDP is calculated using statistical information (using national economic indicators), forecast models and expert evaluations.

GDP growth can be seen as positive for the pound sterling.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.29794, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.29186. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.31551, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.32700.

GBP USD previous Day range was 175.7 and Current Day Range is 34.8.

USD CHF

The USD traded higher against CHF and closed at 0.9956.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.99365, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.99169. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.99744, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.99927.

USD CHF previous day range was 37.9 and current day range is 15.7.

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Technical Overview of AUD/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD Currency Pairs

AUD USD

The AUD traded lower against the USD and closed at 0.7111.

Decisions regarding this interest rate are made by the Reserve Bank Board, and are explained in a media release which announces the decision at 2.30 pm after each Board meeting.

RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.70994, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.70874. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.71275, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.71436.

Previous Day range was 28.1 and Current Day Range is 47.5.

USD JPY

The USD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 111.342.

The Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for capital goods (capital goods are durable goods used in the production of goods or services), which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the defense and aircraft sectors. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.967, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.593. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.577, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.813.

USD JPY previous Day range was 6100 and Current Day Range is 1640.

NZD USD

The NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6805.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.67931, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.67815. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.68267, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.68487.

NZD USD previous day range was 33.6 and current day range is 27.5.

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Weekly Forecast of Crude Oil (USOil.x)

Oil ignores the bearish API inventory report released day before yesterday and hit five-month highs a few minutes before press time.
OPEC's output hit a four-year low in March. The Energy Information Administration is expected to show the US oil inventories dropped last week.

US crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 3 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Oil prices, however, have shrugged off the bearish inventory report, and continue to cheer the OPEC-led supply cuts.

According to the analysis, USOil.x pair is expected to find support at 61.91, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 61.21. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 63.02, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 63.43.

USOil.x previous day range was 11100 and current day range is 4300.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) data due later today is expected to show the US crude inventories dropped 100,000 barrels last week. A bigger drawdown could end up pushing WTI higher to $63.59 (resistance of the June 2018 low as per the weekly chart).
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1652

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pairs

EUR USD

The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.122.

Nonfarm Payrolls present the number of new jobs created during the given month, in all non-agricultural sectors of the U.S.

The indicator growth can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.12015, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11832. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12427, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12656.

Previous Day range was 41.2 and Current Day Range is 11.6.

NZD USD

The NZD traded higher against the USD and closed at 0.6752.

The Average Hourly Earnings released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.67336, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.67150. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.67850, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.68178.

NZD USD previous Day range was 51.4 and Current Day Range is 15.1.

GBP USD

The GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3071.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.30236, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.29759. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.31539, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.32365.

GBP USD previous day range was 130.3 and current day range is 23.5.

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Technical Overview of USD/JPY,EUR/USD and AUD/USD Currency Pairs

USD JPY

The USD traded lower against the JPY and closed at 111.709.

BOJ Governor Speech is an event having the greatest impact on JPY among all public statements made by the Japanese regulator. The Governor's rhetoric reflects the official position of the Bank of Japan.

If some hints at tightening the monetary policy by the Bank of Japan are detected in the Governor speech, it may affect JPY positively.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 111.594, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.479. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.820, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.931.

Previous Day range was 2260 and Current Day Range is 3820.


EUR USD

The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.1216.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.12035, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11908. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12355, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12548.

EUR USD previous Day range was 32 and Current Day Range is 21.3.

AUD USD

The AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.7106.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.70880, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.70704. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.71274, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.71492.

AUD USD previous day range was 39.4 and current day range is 21.1.

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Technical Overview of GBP/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/CAD Currency Pairs

GBP USD

The GBP traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.3048.

The European Council is set to meet in Brussels to discuss Brexit one day ahead of the deadline, trying to come to an agreement on an extension or the UK withdrawal from the EU. This meeting involves the Heads of State and Government of European Union member states.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.30122, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.29763. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.31008, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31535.

Previous Day range was 88.6 and Current Day Range is 19.2.


NZD USD

The NZD traded higher against the USD and closed at 0.674.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

The pair is expected to find support at 0.67315, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.67232. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.67531, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.67664.

NZD USD previous Day range was 21.6 and Current Day Range is 14.6.

AUD USD

The AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7121.

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.71092, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.70973. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.71425, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.71639.

AUD USD previous day range was 33.3 and current day range is 33.1.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD,
GBP/USD and AUD/USD Currency Pairs

EUR USD

The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.1298.

The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.12584, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.12189. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.13304, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.13629.

Previous Day range was 72 and Current Day Range is 15.

GBP USD

The GBP traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.3071.

The Average Earing Excluding Bonus released by the National Statistics is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. It can be seen as a measure of growth in "basic pay". Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the U.K. labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the U.K. economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is negative.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.30368, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.30023. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.31180, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31647.

GBP USD previous Day range was 81.2 and Current Day Range is 32.2.

AUD USD

The AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7171.

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.71273, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.70835. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.72035, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.72359.

AUD USD previous day range was 76.2 and current day range is 15.9.
Technical Overview of EUR/USD,GBP/USD and AUD/USD Currency Pairs (https://xtreamforex.com/academy/technical-overview-of-eur-usd-gbp-usd-and-aud-usd-currency-pairs/)

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Technical Overview of NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF Currency Pairs

NZD USD

The NZD traded lower against the USD and closed at 0.6762.

Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.67471, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.67326. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.67794, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.67972.

Previous Day range was 32.3 and Current Day Range is 27.5.

USD JPY

The USD traded lower against the JPY and closed at 112.033.

Eric Rosengren has been President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston since July 2007. Previously he headed the Bank’s supervision, regulation, and credit group, and was active in domestic and international regulatory policy.

Tertiary Industry Index released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry indicates the domestic service sector in Japan such as information and communication, electricity, gas heat and water, services, transport, wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance ,and welfare. As the Japanese economy relies upon its exports, this event is expected to generate low volatility for the JPY. Generally, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

The pair is expected to find support at 111.918, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.803. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.120, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.207.

USD JPY previous Day range was 2020 and Current Day Range is 1520.

USD CHF

The USD traded lower against CHF and closed at 1.0039.
According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.00169, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.99944. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.00539, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.00684.

USD CHF previous day range was 37 and current day range is 14.3.
Technical Overview of NZD/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF Currency Pairs - Forex Educations & Market Research (https://xtreamforex.com/academy/technical-overview-of-nzd-usd-usd-jpy-and-usd-chf-currency-pairs/)

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Technical Overview of USD/CAD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pairs

USD CAD

The USD traded lower against the CAD and closed at 1.335.

Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.33294, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.33094. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.33861, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.34228.

Previous Day range was 56.7 and Current Day Range is 44.2.

GBP USD

The GBP traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.3043.

Mark Carney is Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee and the Board of the Prudential Regulation Authority. His appointment as Governor was approved by Her Majesty the Queen on 26 November 2012. The Governor joined the Bank on 1 July 2013.

The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

The pair is expected to find support at 1.30231, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.30031. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.30812, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31193.

GBP USD previous Day range was 58.1 and Current Day Range is 34.7.

USD JPY

The USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 112.012.

James Bullard is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Dr. Bullard took office on April 1, 2008, as the twelfth chief executive of the Eighth District Federal Reserve Bank, at St. Louis. He is currently serving a full term that began March 1, 2011. In 2013, he serves as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 111.892, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.772. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.087, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.162.

USD JPY previous day range was 1950 and current day range is 2410.

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Technical Overview of CHF/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/USD Currency Pairs

CHF JPY

1655
The CHF traded lower against the JPY and closed at 109.923.

CHFJPY has formed a MB/IB on D1. It is in confluence with Yearly and Quarter Pivot.
Keep in mind that both the currencies may share equal strength in short term due to weakness in USD( Yet to come).

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 109.592, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.261. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.127, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.331.

Previous Day range was 5350 and Current Day Range is 3170.

USD CHF

1656
The USD traded higher against the CHF and closed at 1.0200.

The pair has already stretched above 2618 %. Now it has formed MB/IB and is in confluence with the Quarter/Year Pivot Levels. A breakout towards up or down may eventually change the trend.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.01727, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.01453. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.02234, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.02467.

USD CHF previous Day range was 50.7 and Current Day Range is 16.5.

EUR USD

1657
The EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1154.

The Pair formed a No Demand No Supply. VPOC level, 61% retracement & Quarter Pivot is in confluence at the market zone. A retracement may lead to further selling or alternatively it may make a new Impulse leg.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.11210, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.10882. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12063, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12588.

EUR USD previous day range was 85.3 and current day range is 15.5.

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Technical Overview of USD/CAD,USD/CHF, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY Currency Pairs

USD CAD

The USD traded lower against the CAD and closed at 1.3485.

The pair stalls at the Quarter Pivot and Monthly Pivot. It also made a Bullish Climax at the Resistance Level. Keep in mind that Pair had also completed Bullish AB=CD Pattern.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.34719, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.34591. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.35070, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.35293.

Previous Day range was 35.1 and Current Day Range is 18.2.

USD CHF

The USD traded lower against the CHF and closed at 1.0202.

The pair stalls at the Quarter Pivot and Monthly Pivot. It’s in a Mother bar In side bar Formation
The daily Moving Average presents a Bullish Momentum( after the resistances are broken)
Or else there shall be a successful close below the daily Moving Average to go further down.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.01873, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.01728. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.02219, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.02420.

USD CHF previous Day range was 34.6 and Current Day Range is 9.9.

EUR GBP

The EUR traded higher against GBP and closed at 0.8628.

The pair stalls at the Quarter Pivot and Monthly Pivot. It also made a Double Top,
Iy closed below the D1 Moving Average. As we know the weakness in EURO is present so, this pair can follow the Classic Double Top Pattern.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.86182, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.86080. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.86462, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.86640.

EUR GBP previous day range was 28 and current day range is 8.9.

USD JPY

The USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 111.603.

The pair stalls at the Quarter Pivot and Monthly Pivot. It’s in a range now. But pair started to move. Best option is to wait for pivot breakouts...

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 111.235, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.866. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.105, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.606.

USD JPY previous day range was 8700 and current day range is 3360.

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Technical Overview of EUR/CHF,NZD/USD and GBP/CHF Currency Pairs

EUR CHF

1661
The EUR traded higher against the CHF and closed at 1.1392.

1- Mother bar @ Middle Quarter Resistance 2
2-The top is the 786 Level retracement
3- The D1 Trend line has also broken. Indicating a Bearish Movement

Scenario 1: If there is a bearish breakout of Mother bar followed by a test with low volume then we may see an AB= CD pattern, With D point in confluence with the Middle Quarter Resistance 1.

Scenario 2: If there is a bullish breakout above the yearly Pivot with a low volume retest then we may see a new Impulse leg which then extend or make a Double Top.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.13750, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.13577. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14244, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14565.

Previous Day range was 49.4 and Current Day Range is 23.9.

NZD USD

1662
The NZD traded higher against the USD and closed at 0.662.

1- H4 Mother bar @MSup1Q1
2-The 61% Level retracement

Scenario 1: If there is a bearish breakout of Mother bar followed by a test with low volume then we may see an AB= CD pattern, With D point in confluence with the Msup1Y1 & Msup1Q1

Scenario 2: If there is a bullish breakout above the yearly Pivot with a low volume retest then we may see a new Impulse leg which then extend or make a Double Top.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.65978, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.65754. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.66608, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.67014.

NZD USD previous Day range was 63 and Current Day Range is 27.5.

GBP CHF

1663
The GBP traded higher against CHF and closed at 1.3278.

1- An Effort candle followed by climax candle.
2- Formed candles @ the previous month resistance
3- Followed by no demand no supply
4- Followed by vpoc with low volume

Scenario1: If the pair retraces to the no demand no supply area with low volume then we may see a downward movement.
Scenario 2: If we see a bullish breakout then we will need further conformations to go long.

According to the analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.32556, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.32332. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.33018, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.33256.

GBP CHF previous day range was 46.2 and current day range is 50.1.
Technical Overview of EUR/CHF, NZD/USD and GBP/CHF Currency Pairs (https://xtreamforex.com/academy/technical-overview-of-eur-chf-nzd-usd-and-gbp-chf-currency-pairs/)

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Technical Overview of GBP/JPY and AUD/NZD Currency Pairs

GBP JPY

The GBP traded higher against the JPY and closed at 146.344.

GBPJPY @ a very strong resistance
Reasons
1- The Long Blue candle Represents Climax candle (indicating that smart money may be interested in selling).
2- Abcd formed @ 127Extension.
3- 127 level in confluence with trendline of Pivot Candles.
4- Price approaching the Middle Resistance 1 of 1st Quarter.
5- RSI H4 & D1 Already in Over Bought level.
6- High of Previous Daily & Weekly Candle also Broken.
So Scenarios
If we see A Low Volume Test (two bullish candles followed by a bearish one with low volume then we can expect selling).
If we break above the 161 Level with 2 bearish candles followed by 1 bullish low volume candle may resume uptrend.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 145.254, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 144.164. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 146.951, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 147.558.

GBP JPY Previous Day range was 16970 and Current Day Range is 9510.

AUD NZD

The AUD traded higher against the NZD and closed at 1.0572.

The Pair Formed
1- Mother bar in side bar @ the Quarterly Resistance, Previous Month Resistance and Monthly Pivot Levels. It’s in a range for now.
2- 55 and 21 Period Moving average has a downward slope.
3- Pair has made a series of LH and LL and the Trendline from the PIVOT CANDLES has been formed.

Scenarios

1- A break below the Low of Mother bar may continue the trend.
Or
2- A break above the Mother bar High may have a change in bias towards the up side.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.05557, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.05396. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.05833, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.05948.

AUD NZD previous Day range was 27.6 and Current Day Range is 32.4.
Technical Overview of GBP/JPY and AUD/NZD Currency Pairs (https://xtreamforex.com/academy/technical-overview-of-gbp-jpy-and-aud-nzd-currency-pairs/)

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Technical Overview of AUD/CHF and EUR/AUD Currency Pair

AUD CHF

The AUD traded lower against the CHF and closed at 0.7128.

It’s an interesting pair; let’s see what it has for us today. The same Directions apply to almost all of the AUD pairs.

1-It formed A daily Motherboard Inside bar
2- It’s in confluence with Yearly Pivots
3- It’s in confluence with Quarter Pivots
4- It’s in confluence with Month Pivots
5- The Pair has been making a series of LL and LH.
6- The Pivotal Trend line has broken to the upside.
7- The Trendline has been Tested

Scenario 1-If we get a break above the 0.7160 -0.7175 Zone of Year/Quarter & Month Pivot then we may Expect to move UP
Scenario 2- If we break the lows of Mother bar Inside bar then we may go Down

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.71082, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.70884. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.71540, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.71800.

AUD CHF Previous Day range was 45.8 and Current Day Range is 26.7.

EUR AUD

The EUR traded higher against the AUD and closed at 1.6011.

Pair has formed

1 - It formed a daily Mother bar Inside bar.
2 - It’s in confluence with Yearly Pivots.
3 - It’s in confluence with Quarter Pivots.
4 - Range of Quarter and Year Pivots.
5 - The Pair has been making a series of HH and HL.
6 - Break Above or below the 127 Extension may lead pair to the short term trend.

According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.59644, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.59184. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.60376, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.60648.

EUR AUD Previous Day range was 73.2 and Current Day Range is 62.
Technical Overview of AUD/CHF and EUR/AUD Currency Pair (https://xtreamforex.com/academy/technical-overview-of-aud-chf-currency-pair/)