Forex News from InstaForex

[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Manufacturing PMI Sinks Into Contraction - Nikkei

The manufacturing sector in Japan fell into contraction in May, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Thursday in its preliminary report - posting a manufacturing PMI score of 49.6.

That's down from 50.2 in April and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line if 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, output and new orders fell for the fifth straight month, while the business outlook reflected pessimism for the first time more than six years.

New export orders, backlogs, stocks and quantities of purchases also were in contraction.

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[InstaForex Matthias]

Australian Dollar Declines Amid China Manufacturing PMI

The Australian dollar fell against other major currencies in the early Asian session on Monday after the release of weaker-than-expected China manufacturing PMI for March.

Data from China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing said that China's manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace than expected in March.

The PMI came in at 50.9 percent, compared to expectations of 51.2. The PMI reading for prior month was 50.1.

The aussie fell to 1.0388 against the greenback, its lowest since March 21. The aussie may seek support around 1.03 level.

The aussie slipped to a 2-week low of 97.69 against the yen, off its early 4-day high of 98.28. If the aussie extends decline, it may break 97.00 level.

After touching a 4-day high of 1.0613 against the loonie in early deals, the aussie reversed direction and reached a 4-day low of 1.0575.

The aussie that declined to session's low of 1.2432 against the NZ dollar earlier rebounded but failed to hold gains.

The pair is worth 1.2441. The aussie dropped to 1.2317 against the euro around 9:10 pm ET. On the downside, 1.24 is seen as the next target level for the aussie.

The U.S. construction spending for February and ISM manufacturing index for March are due in the New York session.

[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Steady Ahead Of German Retail Sales


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German retail sales figures for August are due at 2:00 am ET Monday. The euro showed choppy trading against other major currencies before the data.
The euro was trading at 1.3498 against the greenback, 132.12 against the yen, 0.8350 against the pound and 1.2224 against the franc at 1:55 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Abe Says Japan Will Increase Sales Tax From April 2014


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Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tuesday that his government will hike the sales tax as planned from April next year to reduce the country's huge debt load.
The government will increase the sales tax to 8 percent from April 2014 from the current 5 percent. At the same time, Abe is expected to announce an economic stimulus package to cushion the impact that the tax hike could have on the economy.
At around 230 percent of gross domestic product, Japan's has the largest debt pile among advanced economies.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Canadian Dollar Extends Slide To 5-week Low Against Euro


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The Canadian dollar extended its early slide against the euro in European deals on Wednesday.
The loonie touched 1.4010 against the euro for the first time since August 28. The loonie may possibly find support around the 1.41 area. At Tuesday's close, the pair was worth 1.3964.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Canadian Dollar Extends Slide To 5-week Low Against Euro


https://forex-images.instaforex.com/analysts/big_preview/can_dollar/3.jpg

The Canadian dollar extended its early slide against the euro in European deals on Wednesday.
The loonie touched 1.4010 against the euro for the first time since August 28. The loonie may possibly find support around the 1.41 area. At Tuesday's close, the pair was worth 1.3964.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China Non-Manufacturing PMI Rises In September


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China's official non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index increased in September, a survey by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing revealed Thursday. The PMI rose to 55.4 in September from 53.9 in August. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector.
The new orders index rose to 53.4 in September from 50.9. New export orders also increased during the month.

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[IFX Gertrude]

BoJ Keeps Monetary Easing Plan Unchanged


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The Bank of Japan on Friday retained its monetary easing plan unchanged and said the economy is recovering moderately.
At the end of a two-day meeting of the nine-member Policy Board, led by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the central bank said it will keep the target of the monetary base expansion at an annual pace of JPY 60-70 trillion.
The Board said that the economy is recovering moderately and the year-on-year change in the core consumer price index is now in the range of 0.5-1 percent. The BoJ expects the economy to continue moderate recovery going forward while the annual rate of change in CPI is seen rising gradually.

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[IFX Gertrude]

World Bank Cuts Developing East Asia Growth Outlook


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The World Bank on Monday lowered its growth projections for developing East Asia, citing slowing growth in China and other economies in the region.
The lender now forecasts 7.1 percent growth for the region in 2013, less than 7.8 percent growth it predicted in April. Growth in 2014 is seen at 7.2 percent.
The World Bank expects the Chinese economy to expand 7.5 percent this year and 7.7 percent in 2014.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Off Highs Against Majors


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The Japanese yen retraced early gains against other major currencies in Asian deals on Tuesday.
The yen is worth 91.51 against the aussie, 80.63 against the kiwi, 97.11 against the greenback, 107.28 against the franc, 156.07 against the pound, 131.66 against the euro and 94.01 against the loonie, down from an early high of 91.05, multi-day high of 80.05, near 2-month high of 96.57, multi-week highs of 106.90, 155.40, 131.14 and 93.63, respectively.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Singapore Dollar Declines To 8-day Low Against U.S. Dollar


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The Singapore dollar fell against the U.S. dollar in Asian deals on Thursday.
The Singapore currency hit 1.2542 against the greenback, a level unseen since October 2. The Singapore dollar may possibly test support at the 1.26 level. At yesterday's close, the pair was worth 1.2498.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Kuroda Reiterates BoJ Committed To Fight Deflation


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The Bank of Japan will do whatever necessary to overcome deflation, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Thursday.
Bond buying plan has been exerting its intended effects and Japan has been steadily moving toward overcoming deflation, Kuroda said at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
As the economy mired in deflation for the last 15 years, people's deflationary expectations became entrenched, he noted. Persistent deflation encouraged behavior to stay status quo, and this deprived Japan's economy of vitality.
Kuroda said the economy is on track and it would be premature to say anything about what additional measures the central bank could take if the economy falter.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Swiss Producer & Import Prices Remain Unchanged In September


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Switzerland's producer and import price index remained unchanged in September compared with a year earlier, data from the Federal Statistical Office revealed Monday.
The price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products increased 0.1 percent on a month-on-month basis.
There was a notable increase in domestic and import prices of petroleum products in September from a month earlier, according to the statistical office.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Research: Daily Outlook for Eur/usd


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Quotes from UniCredit Research:
-EUR-USD fell below 1.35 for most part of yesterday due to some further position adjustments ahead of the US debt ceiling deadline. We still see more seesawing in the 1.3450-1.3550 band for today, with EMU CPI data unlikely to impact.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Research: leveraged Funds Should Sell Usd-Cny 12m Ndf


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Quotes from Standard Chartered:
-We recommend that leveraged funds sell USD-CNY 12M NDF. Real-money funds should maintain strategic Overweights on the CNY, KRW, TWD and THB; Underweight on HKD; and Neutral on other AXJ markets.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Climbs To 2-day High Against NZ Dollar


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The Australian dollar extended its overnight gains against its Tasman rival on Friday morning in Asia.
The aussie jumped to a 2-day high of 1.1378 against the New Zealand dollar, up from Thursday's NY session close of 1.1356.
Further bullish extension could lead the pair challenging the 1.14 resistance level in the near-term.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Research: US Rates Review


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Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:
-US: 10y swaps near Friday's close of 2.73%. Fed tapering delay and clouded US macro data on shutdown has led to a sharp 21bps correction lower in 10y rates from 2.88% last Wednesday. Will strong nfp tomorrow cause curve steepening to resume?

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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysian Ringgit At 8-day Low Against U.S. Dollar


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The Malaysian Ringgit lost ground against the U.S. dollar in Asian deals on Tuesday.
The ringgit slipped to 3.1850 against the greenback, a level unseen since October 14. The next downside target for the ringgit is seen around the 3.2 zone. At Monday's close, the pair was worth 3.1685.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Declines Against Most Majors


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Reversing direction, the Australian dollar fell against most major currencies in Asia on Wednesday.
The aussie slipped to a 6-day low of 94.07 against the yen and an 8-day low of 1.4267 against the euro, down from an early high of 95.66 and more than 3-month high of 1.4126, respectively.
The aussie was worth 0.9667 against the greenback and 0.9954 against the loonie around 12:25 am ET, retreating from early multi-month highs of 0.9757 and 1.0035, respectively.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China Manufacturing PMI 50.9 In October - HSBC


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An index measuring manufacturing activity in China came in with a score of 50.9 in October, the latest survey from HSBC and Markit Economics revealed on Thursday.
That topped forecasts for a score of 50.4 and was up from the 50.2 reading in September.
The survey said that new orders were at a seven-month high.
A score above 50 indicates expansion in a sector, while a score below 50 signals contraction.

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[IFX Gertrude]

South Korea GDP +1.1% On Quarter In Q3


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South Korea's gross domestic product added a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Bank of Korea said in Friday's advance estimate.
That beat forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent and was unchanged from the rate of increase in the second quarter.
On a yearly basis, GDP jumped 3.3 percent - also topping forecasts for an increase of 2.8 percent and up from 2.3 percent in the previous three months.
Real gross domestic income was up 0.4 percent on quarter and 4.2 percent on year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Aud underpinned by Strong Stocks


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The Aussie inched up to $0.9600, from a trough of $0.9572 on Friday, underpinned by a 1 percent increase in stock markets in Japan and Australia.
But it was still a fair way off a five-month peak of $0.9758 set last week on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will extend its cheap money policies into next year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Falls Against Most Majors


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The New Zealand dollar slipped against most major rivals in Asian trading on Tuesday.
The kiwi declined to 80.51 against the yen, its lowest level in nearly 3 weeks. Against the euro, the kiwi fell to a 4-day low of 1.6683.
On the downside, the kiwi may test support around 79.5 against the yen and 1.68 against the euro.
The kiwi hit 0.8258 against the greenback, a level not seen since October 10. Further downtrend may lead the kiwi to face support around the 0.815 area.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Falls Against Canadian Dollar


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The Australian dollar weakened against the Canadian dollar in early Asian deals on Wednesday.
The aussie slipped to 0.9901 against the loonie, not far from Tuesday's lowest level of 0.9897 in 11 days. The next probable support for the aussie-loonie pair is seen around the 0.98 level. The pair finished yesterday's deals at 0.9924.

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[IFX Gertrude]

U.S. Dollar Rises Against European Majors


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The U.S. dollar edged up against European major counterparts in Asian deals on Thursday.
The greenback reached as high as 0.9014 against the franc, 1.3709 against the euro and 1.6013 against the pound around 11:40 pm ET.
The next probable resistance for the greenback is seen around 0.91 against the franc, 1.365 against the euro and 1.595 against the pound.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Krw Decline capped by Demand from Exporters -Dealers


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KRW was quoted at 1,062.0 against the dollar as of 0205 GMT, compared with Friday's domestic closing level of 1,060.7.
Exporters continue to sell dollars to convert their contract payments into the local currency, offering firm support for the won. Investors are also reluctant to place aggressive bets before the release of the U.S. October employment report and third-quarter gross domestic product data later this week.

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[IFX Gertrude]

U.S. Dollar Advances To 4-day High Against Canadian Dollar


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The U.S. dollar strengthened against its Canadian unit in Asian deals on Tuesday.
The greenback hit a 4-day high of 1.0431 against the loonie, up from an early low of 1.0416. The next possible resistance for the greenback-loonie pair lies around the 1.05 zone. At yesterday's close, the pair was worth 1.0423.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Has A$284 Million Trade Deficit


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Australia saw a merchandise trade deficit of A$284 million in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
That beat forecasts for a shortfall of A$500 million following the revised 693 million deficit in August (originally A$815 million).
Exports were roughly flat on month at A$27.309 billion, up marginally from A$27.185 billion in the previous month.
Imports dipped 1.0 percent to A$27.593 billion, down from A$27.878 billion a month earlier.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Ticks Up After China Trade Data


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The Australian dollar inched higher against its major counterparts after a report showed that China's trade balance nearly doubled to reach $31.1 billion in September from $15.1 billion surplus in the previous month. Economists had expected a $24.8 billion surplus.
The Australian dollar was trading at 1.1362 against the New Zealand dollar and 1.4146 against the euro immediately following the report, up from previous lows of 1.1331 and 1.4216, respectively. The aussie also climbed to 93.11 against the yen and 0.9481 against the greenback from previous lows of 92.60 and 0.9431, respectively.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Swiss Franc At 4-day Lows Against Euro, Pound


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The Swiss franc slipped against the euro and the British pound in Asian deals on Monday.
The franc fell to 4-day lows of 1.4776 against the pound and 1.2323 against the euro, compared to last week's closing quotes of 1.4752 and 1.2313, respectively. The next probable downside target for the franc is seen around 1.49 against the pound and 1.24 against the euro.

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[IFX Gertrude]

South Korea Export Prices -1.9% In October


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South Korea's export price index was down 1.9 percent in October compared to the previous month, the Bank of Korea said on Tuesday. That follows the 2.4 percent contraction in September.
On a yearly basis, export prices dropped 4.6 percent after shedding 4.7 percent in the previous month.
Import prices dropped 2.4 percent on month and 7.3 percent on year after losing 2.3 percent on month and 8.1 percent on year in September.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Weakens Ahead Of Japan Final Industrial Production


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Japan's final industrial production data for September is due on Thursday's Asian session at 11:30 pm ET. Ahead of the data, the yen slipped against other major currencies.
The yen traded at 99.67 against the greenback, 159.78 against the pound, 108.91 against the franc and 134.23 against the euro around at 11:25 pm ET.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Kiwi up 0.5 Pct


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The New Zealand dollar caught its breath at $0.8283 after a volatile week saw it as low as $0.8166 and as high as $0.8355. It was still on course for a 0.5 percent gain since Monday.
Support was seen at $0.8230 and then $0.8200 with resistance at $0.8300 before $0.8360.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Speculators Add Long Dollar Bets in Latest Week, Hit Two-Month High


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Speculative bets favored the U.S. dollar in the latest week, posting their highest long position in two months, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
The value of the dollar's net longs totaled $14.46 billion in the week ended Nov. 12, up from a long position of $7.02 billion in the week ended Nov. 5. Speculators were long for a second straight week and the latest week showed the contract total at its largest since the week of Sept. 10.


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[IFX Gertrude]

China House Prices Rise In October


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House prices in all Chinese cities except Wenzhou increased in October as the government abstained from initiating new property curbs.
House prices rose in 69 out of 70 cities tracked by the government, data published by the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday.
On a yearly basis, prices surged 20.2 percent in Shenzhen and 17.8 percent in Shanghai. And it gained 16.4 percent in Beijing.
Month-on-month, house prices increased in 65 cities in October. Prices remained unchanged in three cities and declined in two.


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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Declines To 4-day Low Versus Euro


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The New Zealand dollar fell against the European currency in Asian deals on Tuesday.
The kiwi hit a 4-day low of 1.6252 against the euro, compared to Monday's closing value of 1.6199. The kiwi may seek support around the 1.635 level.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Bernanke Making more Dovish Comments, Fiscal Plug Needed


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Recommends less restrictive fiscal stance, focus on longer-term issues.
Reiterates Fed will remain easy for longer, till good economic evidence.
Efforts to up jobs being made, must reduce inequalities.
Fed bond buys have benefited Wall Street but no necessarily Main Street.


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[IFX Gertrude]

China HSBC Manufacturing Index Slides To 50.4

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An index measuring manufacturing activity in China came in with a score of 50.4 in November, flash survey results from HSBC and Markit Economics revealed on Thursday.
That was well shy of forecasts for 50.8 and down from 50.9 in October.
A score above 50 means expansion in a sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.
The data also showed that the flash China Manufacturing Output Index came in 51.3 in November, up from 51.1 in October.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Pound At New 2-week High Against Franc

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The British currency climbed against the Swiss franc in early Asian deals on Friday.
The pound spiked up to 1.4800 against the franc, its highest since November 7. At yesterday's close, the pair was worth 1.4786. The next upside target for the pound-franc pair lies around the 1.49 area.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Canadian Dollar Hits Near 4-week Low Versus Euro

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The Canadian dollar drifted lower against the European currency in early Asian trading on Monday.
The loonie touched 1.4303 against the euro, its lowest level since October 31. On the downside, the loonie may eye support around the 1.45 area. The pair was worth 1.4260 at Friday's close.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippine Imports Surge 7.2% In September

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The Philippines imported goods worth $5.711 billion in September, an increase of 7.2 percent from a year earlier, data from the National Statistics Office showed Tuesday.
Total external trade in goods reached $10.756 billion during the month, representing a 6.1 percent increase from last year. Exports grew 4.9 percent annually.
Thus, the balance of trade in goods for the country registered a deficit of $666 million, higher than $516 million deficit in the same period last year.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Falls To 3-month Low Against Euro

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The Australian dollar slipped against the euro in early Asian deals on Wednesday.
The aussie hit 1.4901 against the euro, a level last seen on August 29. The next possible support for the aussie is seen around the 1.50 level. The pair was worth 1.4863 at yesterday's close.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Seoul Shares on Track for a Fourth Straight Winning Session

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The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) gained 0.7 percent to 2,042.60 points as of 0200 GMT after touching an intraday high of 2,046.27, its highest since , fuelled by a strong U.S. consumer confidence survey that boded well for South Korean exporters' sales to their second largest market.

"In the past 10 years KOSPI had mirrored the U.S. year-end consumption season to rise 4 percent on average, and with consumer confidence picking up, the outlook seemd quite rosy for this year as well," said Chung Seung-jae, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities.


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[IFX Gertrude]

South Korea Industrial Production Rebounds In October

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Industrial production in South Korea rebounded in October, the latest figures from Statistics Korea revealed Friday.
After adjusting to seasonal variations, industrial production expanded 1.8 percent month-on-month in October, partly recovering from a 2.3 percent slump in September. Manufacturing output grew 2 percent after a 2.5 percent decline a month earlier.
On an unadjusted basis, industrial output rose 3 percent month-on-month following a 3.9 percent drop in September. Manufacturing was also up 3 percent from a month earlier in unadjusted terms.
On an annual basis, manufacturing production grew 3 percent after a 4 percent contraction in September.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Canadian Dollar Falls To 4-day Low Against Yen

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The Canadian dollar drifted lower against the Japanese yen in early Asian deals on Monday.
The loonie touched a 4-day low of 96.29 against the yen, down from last week's closing quote of 96.42. The loonie is likely to face support at the 95.00 area.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Edges Up Against Canadian Dollar

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The Australian dollar ticked up against the Canadian dollar in early Asian deals on Thursday.
The aussie rose to 0.9653 against the loonie, bouncing off from an early low of 0.9624. The next possible upside target for the aussie-loonie pair lies around the 0.975 mark.


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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Off 2-day High Against US Dollar

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The New Zealand dollar that advanced to a 2-day high of 0.8234 against the US dollar at the beginning of Friday's Asian session erased some of its gains subsequently.
Near-term downside target for the kiwi-greenback pair is seen around the 0.8170 level, its horizontal channel trend-line area and the likelihood of a bullish resumption could help breaking the 0.8260 resistance.

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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Trades Higher Against Majors

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The New Zealand dollar firmed against its major rivals in Asian deals on Monday.
The kiwi reached a 5-day high of 1.6473 against the euro and near a 3-week high of 0.8322 against the greenback.
The kiwi approached 1.0963 against the aussie for the first time since November 2008. Against the yen, the kiwi advanced to near an 8-month high of 85.75.
The next possible upside target for the kiwi is seen around 0.84 against the greenback, 87.00 against the yen, 1.08 against the aussie and 1.635 against the euro.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippine Export Growth Accelerates In October

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Philippine export growth quickened in October, data released by the National Statistics Office revealed Monday.
Exports grew 14 percent year-on-year in October following a 5.1 percent gain in September. Economists had forecast an 8.3 percent increase.
However, shipments fell 0.6 percent month-on-month. This followed a solid 10.4 percent growth in September.
Exports of electronic products, accounting for 42.9 percent of the total exports revenue in October, grew 13.4 percent from a year earlier. On a monthly basis, electronic shipments rose 0.4 percent.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Canadian Dollar Hits 2-day High Against Euro

https://forex-images.instaforex.com/analysts/big_preview/can_dollar/5.jpg

The Canadian dollar climbed against the European currency in early Asian deals on Wednesday.
The loonie hit a 2-day high of 1.4583 against the euro, after having reached lowest level of 1.4646 in near 5 years on Tuesday. The next possible upside target for the loonie lies around the 1.44 zone.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Inflationary Expectations Rise Slightly


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Inflation expectations among Australian consumers increased slightly in December, a monthly survey by the Melbourne Institute revealed Thursday.
The expected inflation rate rose to 2.1 percent in December from 1.9 percent in November. It is now just above the lower bound of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target band of 2-3 percent.
The survey also included quarterly information on past and future pay growth. Actual pay growth over the 12 months to December rose to 3.3 percent from 2.1 percent in the 12 months to September.
Expected pay growth in the coming 12 months rose to 3.2 percent from 2.7 percent in September.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysian Ringgit Drops To 2-week Low Against US Dollar

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The Malaysian ringgit extended its 2-day losing streak against its US counterpart in early Asian trading on Friday, falling to a 2-week low of 3.2392, down from 3.2305 hit late New York Thursday.
The near-term support for the ringgit is seen around the 3.24 area, a level last seen in early October.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysian Ringgit Drops To 2-week Low Against US Dollar

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The Malaysian ringgit extended its 2-day losing streak against its US counterpart in early Asian trading on Friday, falling to a 2-week low of 3.2392, down from 3.2305 hit late New York Thursday.
The near-term support for the ringgit is seen around the 3.24 area, a level last seen in early October.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Strengthens Against Majors

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The Japanese yen climbed against other major currencies in Asia on Monday.
The yen reached a 10-day high of 167.34 against the pound, 5-day high of 141.21 against the euro, 4-day highs of 102.64 against the greenback and 115.53 against the franc.
The yen is likely to face upside target around 101.6 against the greenback, 114.00 against the franc, 166.00 against the pound and 140.00 against the euro.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Climbs Against U.S. Dollar

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The Japanese yen advanced against the U.S. dollar in Asian trading on Tuesday.
The yen rose to 102.91 against the greenback, up from an early low of 103.10. The next possible resistance for the yen is seen around the 102.00 zone.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysian Ringgit Declines To 2-1/2-month Low Against U.S. Dollar

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The Malaysian Ringgit fell sharply against the U.S. dollar in Asia on Wednesday as traders await the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary policy due later in the day.

The ringgit hit 3.2560 against the greenback for the first time since October 4. If the ringgit slides further, it may face support at the 3.28 zone. The pair finished trading at 3.2485 yesterday.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Pound Hits 2-week High Against Euro

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The pound gained ground against the euro in Asian deals on Thursday.
The pound reached 0.8339 against the euro, its highest since December 5. The pound is poised to seek resistance around the 0.827 mark. The pair was worth 0.8355 at yesterday's close.


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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand's Credit Card Spending Rises In November

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New Zealand's credit card spending increased sharply in November, the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed Friday.
Card spending rose 3.5 percent month-on-month in November following a 0.5 percent fall in the preceding month. Year-on-year, spending grew 6.9 percent.
Domestic billings on New Zealand issued cards rose 3.9 percent on a monthly basis and overseas billings on domestically issued cards increased 4.1 percent.


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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Declines Against Australian Dollar

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The New Zealand dollar slipped against the Australian dollar in Asian deals on Monday.
The kiwi fell to 1.0897 against the aussie, compared to last week's closing quote of 1.0859. Further downtrend may lead the kiwi to seek support at the 1.097 area.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Indian Rupee Falls To 2-day Low Against U.S. Dollar

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The Indian rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar in morning deals on Thursday.
The rupee fell to a 2-day low of 61.915 against the greenback. Further weakness could help the rupee to find support at the 62.6 area.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan November Unemployment Rate 4.0%

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The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent in November, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - unchanged from the previous month but missing forecasts for 3.9 percent.

The job-to-applicant ratio was 1.00, topping expectations for 0.99 and up from 0.98 in October.

The total number of employed persons in November was 63.71 million, an increase of 740,000 or 1.2 percent on year.

The total number of unemployed persons in November was 2.49 million, a decrease of 110,000.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Swiss Franc Trades Lower Against Majors

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The Swiss franc drifted lower against its major opponents in the Asian session on Thursday.
The franc reached a 6-day low of 0.8937 against the greenback and 2-day low of 117.83 against the yen, off an early high of 0.8909 and a 2-day high of 118.24, respectively.
The franc declined to 1.4822 against the pound, its lowest level since December 4. Against the euro, the franc reached a new 4-week low of 1.2287.
The franc is likely to face support around 116.00 against the yen, 1.49 against the pound, 1.235 against the euro and 0.905 against the greenback.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Usd/krw to Open Around 1054.00 on Higher Ndfs

https://forex-images.instaforex.com/analysts/big_preview/dollar/5.jpg

JPY/KRW reversed abv 10.0 on profit taking, last 10.0200
Resistance at 1060 to remain strong on exporters sales


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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Trades At 5-week Low Against Canadian Dollar

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The euro lost ground against the Canadian dollar in Asian trading on Monday.
The euro depreciated to 1.4416 per loonie, a level not seen since December 3. This is lower by 0.2 percent from Friday's closing quote of 1.4451. The euro may face support at the 1.43 zone.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Drops To 4-day Low Against Yen

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The Australian dollar declined against the Japanese yen in early Asian deals on Tuesday.
The aussie touched a 4-day low of 93.19 against the yen, down by 0.3 percent from Monday's closing value of 93.44. If the aussie extends slide, it may break support at the 92.00 zone.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Drops To 4-day Low Against Yen

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The total number of job vacancies in Australia dropped 14.9 percent on year in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, falling to 140,000.
Compared to the previous three months, total job vacancies eased 0.3 percent after rising 3.1 percent in the three months to October.
Private sector job vacancies dipped 0.1 percent in the past three months and 15.1 percent on year, falling to 129,500. Public sector job vacancies dropped 3.6 percent in the last three months and 12.8 percent on year, falling to 10,500.


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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Drops To 1-week Low Against Euro

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Extending its overnight downtrend, the New Zealand dollar reached a weekly low of 1.6522 against the euro on Friday morning in Asia.
With the pair staying above its key simple moving average levels, the next likely support for the kiwi is seen around the 1.6565 area.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Pound At 2-day High Against Euro


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The pound strengthened against the euro in Asia on Wednesday. The pound hit a 2-day high of 0.8305 against the euro, up from yesterday's closing quote of 0.8319. Further uptrend could help the pound to face resistance around the 0.82 zone.



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[orni308]

USDJPY got an upward movement, if making a long trades the pair is still good to hold on to...

[IFX Gertrude]

UK House Price Balance Dips To 56% - RICS


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An index monitoring house prices in the United Kingdom came in with a score of 56 percent in December, the latest survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors revealed on Thursday.

That was shy of forecasts for 60 percent, and down from the reading of 58 percent in November - although the index remained above 50 percent for the fourth consecutive month.

Among the individual components of the survey, expectations for an increase in house prices climbed to 61 percent from 59 percent in the previous month.

Also, the sales-to-stock ratio climbed to 35.2 percent from 34.6 percent a month earlier.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Govt. Upgrades Economic Assessment


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The Japanese government on Friday revised up its assessment of the economy for the first time in four months, as recovery picked up on the back of improvement in household income and business investment.
"The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace," the Cabinet Office said in its monthly report.
The report noted that the economy may continue to recover as household income and business investment increase.
It also noted that exports were in a weak tone recently. However, industrial production is increasing at a moderate pace, according to the Cabinet Office.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Little Changed Following Japan Industrial Production Data


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After the release of Japan's final industrial production data for November in Asian deals on Monday at 11:30 pm ET, the yen changed little against other major currencies.
The yen was trading at 104.05 against the greenback, 170.76 against the pound, 140.76 against the euro and 114.13 against the franc around 11:33 pm ET.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Hong Kong CPI On Tap For Tuesday


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Hong Kong will on Tuesday release December figures for inflation, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Overall inflation is expected to ease to 4.2 percent on year from 4.3 percent in November. Japan will see December numbers for condominium sales and supermarket sales; in November, they were up 22.3 percent and 0.7 percent on year, respectively.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Rises After BOJ Rate Decision


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The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold in its decision in Asian deals on Wednesday. Following the announcement, the yen edged up against other major currencies.
The yen was trading at 104.23 against the greenback, 171.82 against the pound, 114.59 against the franc and 141.51 against the euro around 10:30 pm ET.


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[IFX Gertrude]

U.S. Dollar Advances Against Most Majors


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The U.S. dollar strengthened against most major opponents in early Asian deals on Thursday.
The greenback rose to 104.84 against the yen for the first time since January 16.
The greenback advanced to 2-day highs of 0.9135 against the franc and 1.3530 against the euro, compared to yesterday's closing quotes of 0.9114 and 1.3547, respectively.
The next possible resistance for the greenback is seen around 0.92 against the franc, 1.345 against the euro and 105.6 against the yen.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysian Ringgit Hits 3-1/2-year Low Against U.S. Dollar


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The Malaysian Ringgit drifted lower against the U.S. dollar in Asian deals on Monday. The ringgit touched 3.3465 against the greenback, a level unseen since June 2010. The ringgit may find support at the 3.36 mark. At last week's close, the pair was worth 3.3345.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Chinese Industrial Profit Rise In 2013


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China's industrial profits increased 12.2 percent in 2013 from the previous year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.
Profits were up 13.2 percent during eleven months ended November.
In December alone, combined profits of industrial firms grew 6 percent to CNY 942.5 billion. But it was slower than the 9.7 percent growth posted in November.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Swiss Franc Slides To 5-day Low Against Euro


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Retracing early gains, the Swiss franc slipped against the euro in Asian trading on Wednesday.
The franc declined to a 5-day low of 1.2295 per euro, off an early high of 1.2261. The franc is likely to face support at the 1.235 mark. The pair traded at 1.2270 at yesterday's close.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippine GDP Growth Slows In Q4


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The Philippine economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter, data from the National Statistical Coordination Board showed Thursday.
Gross domestic product rose 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter from last year, down from the revised 6.9 percent expansion registered in the previous quarter. Nonetheless, the rate exceeded the 6 percent consensus.
From the third quarter, seasonally adjusted GDP increased 1.5 percent, data showed. For 2013 as a whole, the economy grew 7.2 percent from the previous year.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Day ahead in the Fx Market


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TUESDAY, FEB. 4 (GMT):
0330 - AUSTRALIA RBA CASH RATE FOR FEBRUARY Reserved Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate for February is expected to have remain at 2.50 percent. 2145 - NEW ZEALAND HLFS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR Q4 Jobless rate for Q4 is expected to rise 6.0 percent compared with a rise of 6.2 percent in Q3.
2145 - NEW ZEALAND HLFS JOB GROWTH FOR Q4 Job growth for Q4 is expected to rise 0.6 percent compared with a rise of 1.2 percent in Q3.
2145 - NEW ZEALAND LABOUR COST INDEX FOR Q4 Fourth quarter labour cost index data is expected to rise 1.7 percent from a year earlier, compared with a rise of 1.6 percent in Q3. Labour cost index for Q4 is expected to rise 0.6 percent, quarter-to-quarter, compared with a rise of 0.4 percent in previous quarter.
2145 - NEW ZEALAND HLFS PARTICIPATION RATE FOR Q4 Participation rate for Q4 is expected to have remain at 68.6 percent.


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[arif]

i like forex service and i am a forex martater.

[IFX Gertrude]

BoJ To Maintain Easy Policy Until Inflation Steadies At 2%, Says Iwata


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The Bank of Japan will maintain its loose monetary policy until 2 percent inflation target is achieved in a stable manner, Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata said Thursday.
"Even if the CPI reached 2 percent year-on-year, unless the Bank projects that inflation is likely to remain at around 2 percent in a stable manner, it will not simply end monetary easing," Iwata told business leaders in Miyazaki.
"What is most important at this juncture is that the Bank steadily make progress under the current policy framework," he added.
The negative impact from sales tax hike on households' income will be mitigated by the economic measures taken by the government. Moreover, the tax hikes seem to have already been factored in substantially among households, he noted.
"In sum, the consumption tax hike will temporarily generate a swing in the economy's growth rates and negatively affect disposable income," Iwata said.
But the virtuous cycle that has already been working in Japan's economy will continue and the economy is likely to continue growing at a pace above its potential, as a trend, he said.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Fed's Rosengren: fED Balance Sheet Would Shrink Quickly Without Sales


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"Our intention is to get back to a more normal size balance sheet," Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said at a Florida conference, acknowledging the risk that interest rates are likely to rise in the future, leading to possible losses on the balance sheet that is now worth $4 trillion and growing.
"If we stopped purchasing mortgage backed securities, that part of the balance sheet comes down actually relatively quickly," he said.
As for the purchases of longer-term Treasury bonds, Rosengren said that side of the balance sheet also declines "surprisingly quickly by just not doing any purchases and not reinvesting."


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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysia's Manufacturing Sales Continue To Rise


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Malaysia's manufacturing sales continued to increase in December, the Department of Statistics said Monday. The sales value of the manufacturing sector rose 5.4 percent, after posting 4.7 percent growth in November. Compared with the preceding month, the sales value advanced 4 percent in December. Further, data showed that total employees engaged in the manufacturing sector in December totaled 1.03 million, an increase of 0.3 percent from November. Likewise, sales and wages grew 11.1 percent month-on-month in December. At the same time, productivity increased 3.6 percent from November and by 4.1 percent from December 2012.


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[IFX Gertrude]

China Money Markets on Edge


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Short-term rates likely to rise with PBOC skipping open market operations Maturing reverse repos to drain CNY450 billion this week
Rates have been creeping up since markets reopened on Friday
PBOC inaction could fuel tightening fears


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[IFX Gertrude]

China January Exports and Imports Well Above Forecasts


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China's exports beat expectations in January, rising 10.6 percent from a year earlier, while imports jumped 10 percent, leaving the country with a trade surplus of $31.9 billion for the month, the Customs Administration said on Wednesday.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia's Inflation Expectations Remain Unchanged In February


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The expected inflation rate amongst Australian consumers remained unchanged and stayed well within the central bank's target band of 2 percent-3 percent, a monthly survey by the Melbourne Institute revealed Thursday.
Consumers forecast a 2.3 percent inflation over the coming twelve months, the same rate as estimated in January.
Viet Nguyen, a research fellow at the Melbourne Institute, said, "The moderate upticks in consumer inflationary expectations since September 2013 reflect, to a certain extent, expectations of moderate upticks in economic activity in the coming months."
This provides support for the Reserve Bank of Australia's current 'wait and see' stance, said Nguyen.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Extends Rally After China CPI, PPI Data


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Inflation in China rose 2.5 percent year-over-year in January, unchanged from last year and slightly higher than the 2.4 percent increase expected by economists. Producer price index dropped to 1.6 percent, in line with estimates following previous month's 1.4 percent drop.
The Australian dollar extended its uptrend against its major rivals following the report. As of 8:35 pm ET Thursday, the aussie was trading at 92.26 against the yen, 1.5172 against the euro, 1.0784 against the NZ dollar and 0.9020 against the US dollar.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan December Industrial Output Growth Revised Down To 7.1%


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Japan's industrial production increased at a weaker pace in December than estimated earlier, revised figures from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry revealed Monday.
Industrial production grew 7.1 percent in December from the corresponding month of last year, which is slightly weaker than the 7.3 percent gain the government had estimated on January 30. However, the December outcome was better than November's 4.8 percent rise.
Seasonally adjusted industrial production moved up 0.9 percent compared to November, after dropping by 0.1 percent in November. The flash estimates were for a bigger growth of 1.1 percent at the end of last year.
Data showed that Capacity utilization in Japanese companies climbed 2.2 percent sequentially in December, marking a sharp improvement from the 0.5 percent contraction estimated earlier.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Declines As BoJ Keeps Monetary Policy Unchanged


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The Japanese yen slipped against other major currencies on Tuesday's Asian deals after the Bank of Japan retained its monetary policy intact and said the economy is recovering moderately.
The Bank decided to expand monetary base at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen.
The BOJ planned to double the scale of Stimulating Bank Lending and Growth-Supporting Funding facilities and extend the period of these facilities by an year.
The yen slipped to a 5-day low of 102.44 against the greenback, off early high of 101.76. Against the franc, euro and the pound, the yen declined to near 3-week lows of 114.84, 140.45 and 171.34, easing from early highs of 114.13, 139.50 and 170.23, respectively.
The yen fell to near a 4-week low of 93.48 against the loonie and a 6-day low of 92.86 against the aussie from its previous highs of 92.89 and 92.08, respectively.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Online Job Vacancies Rise 1.4% In January


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Australia's online job vacancies increased for the fifth successive month in January, with strong rises recorded across all categories, data released by the Department of Employment showed Wednesday.
The number of job vacancies advertised on the internet, on an unadjusted basis, increased 1.4 percent month-on-month in January, marking the fifth consecutive increase.
The increase mainly reflected recovering business confidence, strong rise in building approvals, and improvement in retail spending, the agency said.
With a 2.9 percent sequential growth, vacancies of sales workers recorded the biggest increase in January, followed by vacancies of technicians and trades workers, which gained 2 percent.
On an year-on-year basis, unadjusted online vacancies decreased 3.8 percent at the beginning of the year, data showed.


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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Consumer Confidence Retracts From 7-Year High


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New Zealand's consumer confidence dropped modestly in February from January's seven-year high, but remained well above the trend, data from a survey showed Thursday. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index dropped to 133 in February from 135.8 in January, which was the highest score in seven years. Confidence is spreading to all parts of the country. The current conditions sub-index eased 3 points to 127 during February. The future conditions index also shed 3 points and reached a score of 137.1 "It's now well flagged that interest rates are set to move up - a typical bug-bear for sentiment," ANZ said. However, rising asset prices, improving labor market conditions and reasonable income growth will continue to bode well for consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted estimate showed that consumer sentiment increased modestly in February, and reached the highest level in seven years.


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[IFX Gertrude]

UK's House Price Sentiment Improves To Record High: Markit


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Confidence among British residents regarding the value of their homes increased to the record high in February, data from a survey by Knight Frank and Markit Economics revealed Friday.
The headline house price sentiment index, which measures households' views of the current value of their houses, climbed to 60.7 in February, hitting the highest level since the survey began. The index has now stayed above the no-change 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction, for the eleventh successive month.
Property owners in every region of the UK perceived that the value of their home rose in February, led by London, data showed.
At the same time, the outlook component of the survey jumped to an all-time high of 74.9 in February from 72.3 in January, indicating that prices are expected to rise at the strongest rate since the index began in 2009.
The survey showed that households in every region expect that the value of their home will rise over the next twelve months.
"The recovery in the housing market reflects the increasing economic confidence in the country - which recently resulted in an upgrade to economic growth forecasts - coupled with the assurance that interest rates will remain low until next year at least," Gr?inne Gilmore, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Rises Against Majors


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The Japanese yen gained against its major rivals in Asian morning deals on Monday.
The yen advanced to 102.36 against the greenback, 115.34 against the franc, 140.61 against the euro, 91.92 against the loonie and 170.25 against the pound.
The yen climbed to 4-day highs of 91.63 against the aussie and 84.63 against the kiwi.
The yen may eye resistance around 101.5 against the greenback, 169.00 against the pound, 114.2 against the franc, 139.00 against the euro, 90.00 against the loonie, 90.00 against the aussie and 83.5 against the kiwi.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan January Corporate Service Prices Rise 0.8%


https://forex-images.instaforex.com/analysts/big_preview/japan/7.jpg

An index measuring corporate service prices in Japan was up 0.8 percent on year in January, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday, coming in at 96.3.
That was shy of forecasts for an increase of 1.2 percent following the downwardly revised gain of 1.1 percent in December (originally 1.3 percent).
On a monthly basis, corporate service prices dropped 0.6 percent after adding 0.2 percent in December.
Among the individual components, prices moved lower for transportation, communications and advertising; prices were up for leasing and other services.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Taiwan's January Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.07%


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Taiwan's unemployment rate eased for the second straight month in January, data published by the Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) revealed Wednesday.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 4.07 percent in January from 4.14 percent in December.
In January 2013, the jobless rate was 4.2 percent. Economists were looking for a jobless rate of 4.1 percent for January.
There were about 462,000 unemployed persons in Taiwan at the end of January, down by 1.45 percent than at the end of 2013. Compared to January 2013, unemployment dropped by 2.7 percent.
DGBAS noted that the number of unemployed persons increased by around 7,000 month-on-month to around 11.04 million in January. Year-on-year, employment advanced by 101,000. The labor force participation rate dropped modestly by 0.03 percentage points sequentially to 58.52 percent.
On an unadjusted base, 4.02 percent of the labor force was without a job in January, which was lower than December's rate of 4.08 percent.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Private Capital Expenditure Falls 5.2% In Q4


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Private capital expenditure in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at A$38.291 billion.
That was well shy of forecasts for a decline of 1.3 percent following the downwardly revised 2.6 percent contraction in the third quarter (originally 3.6 percent).
Capex for buildings and structures dropped 3.5 percent to A$26.098 billion, while capex for equipment, plants and machinery plunged 8.6 percent to A$12.192 billion.
On year, private capex dropped 5.7 percent as spending on buildings added 0.3 percent but spending on machinery plummeted 16.3 percent.


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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Strengthens As ANZ Business Confidence Improves In February


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The New Zealand dollar edged higher against its major counterparts in early Asian trading on Friday after the release of a survey results showed that the business confidence in New Zealand improved well in the month of February.
Results of a survey conducted by the ANZ Bank New Zealand showed that its business confidence rose to 70.8 in February from 64.1 in the previous month. ANZ activity outlook improved to 58.5 in the month from 53.5 in January. Both readings touched their highest levels since 1994.
The New Zealand dollar edged sharply higher to 0.8396 against the US dollar, its strongest level since January 14. The NZ dollar also rose to 1.6327 against the euro from previous low of 1.6398. The kiwi climbed to 1.0680 against the NZ dollar and 85.68 against the yen from previous lows of 1.0719 and 85.36, respectively.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Indonesia's Manufacturing Sector Expands For Sixth Month


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The Indonesian manufacturing sector expanded for the sixth successive month in February, but at a slightly weaker pace than in the beginning of the year, data published by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank revealed Monday.
The seasonally adjusted manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.5 in February. The index has now stayed above the no-change 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction, for the sixth month in a row. The February reading was, however, slightly lower than January's score of 51.
Production at Indonesian factories rebounded in February, following a contraction in January, but the rate of growth was fractional. The output recovery was driven by a further increase in new business, which has now recorded growth for the fifth month in a row.
Input costs faced by goods producers rose further in February amid food, metals, chemicals, plastics, paper and textiles prices. Subsequently, average output prices were raised further.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Current Account Deficit A$10.1 Billion


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Australia saw a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of A$10.139 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.
That missed forecasts for a shortfall of A$10.0 billion following the upwardly revised A$12.5 billion deficit in the third quarter (originally a deficit of A$12.7 billion).
The primary income deficit climbed A$536 million or 6 percent to A$9.898 billion.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Taiwan's Consumer Prices Drop Slightly In February


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Taiwan's consumer prices decreased modestly in February from last year, data released by the National Statistics revealed Wednesday.
The consumer price index edged down 0.05 percent in February from the corresponding month of last year.
The decline mainly reflected a 2.07 percent fall in transportation and communication costs, and a 0.64 percent decrease in clothing expenses. These were partially offset by a 2.54 percent gain in food prices, and a 0.7 percent growth in housing costs.
Month-on-month, the consumer price index recorded a 0.4 percent decrease during February, the agency said.
Separately, the agency said Taiwan's wholesale prices decreased 0.48 percent year-on-year in February. Sequentially, wholesale prices rose by 0.4 percent.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Retail Sales Jump 1.2% In January


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Retail sales in Australia climbed a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent on month in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - worth A$22.924 billion.
That blew away forecasts for an increase of 0.4 percent following the upwardly revised 0.7 percent gain in December (originally 0.5 percent).
Among the individual components, food retailing was up 0.8 percent, along with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.4 percent), household goods retailing (0.4 percent), other retailing (0.4 percent), department stores (0.7 percent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.3 percent).


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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysia January Exports Rise More Than Expected


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Malaysia's merchandise exports increased at a faster-than-expected pace in January, latest data revealed Friday. Goods exports increased 12.2 percent on an annual basis to MYR63.97 billion in January, the Department of Statistics said. The growth rate was bigger than the 7.9 percent economists had forecast. Major export products in January were electrical and electronic products; refined petroleum products; liquefied natural gas; chemicals and chemical products; and palm oil. At the same time, imports grew 7.2 percent year-on-year to MYR57.62 billion. Economists were looking for a 2.6 percent decrease. The three main categories of imports by end use were intermediate goods, capital goods and consumption goods. January's overall foreign trade resulted in a surplus of MYR6.36 billion, which was notably lower than than the MYR9.05 billion surplus economists had forecast, data showed.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan January Current Account Deficit Y1,589.0 Billion


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Japan saw a current account deficit of 1,589.0 billion yen in January, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.
That missed forecasts for a shortfall of 1,411.8 billion yen following the 638.6 billion yen deficit in December.
The trade balance reflected a deficit of 2,345.4 billion yen - which actually beat expectations for 2,589.6 billion yen. That follows the upwardly revised deficit of 1,047.4 billion yen in December (originally 1,212.6 billion yen.
Exports climbed 16.7 percent on year, while imports surged an annual 30.3 percent.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippine Export Growth Eases For Second Month


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Philippines merchandise exports logged strong growth in in January, but the rate of increase weakened for the second successive month and missed expectations, latest data revealed Tuesday.
Goods exports advanced 9.3 percent on an annual basis to $4.382 billion in January, after gaining 15.8 percent and 18.9 percent respectively in December and November, the National Statistics Office said. Economists had forecast a 10.6 percent growth for January.
Sales were led by a 22.1 percent rise in shipments of electronic products, which followed a 26.2 percent gain in December.
January exports were also influenced by improvement in sales of other manufactured products; metal components; articles of apparel and clothing accessories; machinery and transport equipment; and wood-crafts and furniture, data showed.
Month-on-month, overall exports decreased 4.7 percent in January, with dispatches of electronic products falling 6 percent.


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[IFX Gertrude]

South Korea Unemployment Rate Rises To Three-Year High


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South Korea's unemployment rate grew sharply in February to the highest level in nearly three years, data published by Statistics Korea revealed Wednesday.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate advanced to 3.9 percent in February from 3.2 percent in January. In February 2013, the jobless rate was 3.4 percent. The February figure was the highest since March 2011. On an unadjusted basis, there were around 1.18 million jobless persons in the country at the end of February, which was higher by 19.1 percent than in the same month of last year.
Data showed that the number of employed persons increased 3.5 percent year-on-year to about 24.82 million during February. At the same time, the labor force participation rate advanced 1.8 percent annually to 61.4 percent.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Dollar Declines To 2-day Low Against Pound


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The U.S. dollar edged down against the pound in Asian deals on Thursday.
The greenback slipped to a 2-day low of 1.6641 against the pound at 12:20 am ET from an early high of 1.6606. The next possible support for the greenback is seen around the 1.68 zone.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Rises Against Majors


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The Japanese yen gained against other major currencies in the Asian session on Friday. The yen ticked up to 116.04 against the franc, 140.79 against the euro, 168.81 against the pound and 101.60 against the greenback. The yen may face resistance around 115.00 against the franc, 139.00 against the euro, 167.00 against the pound and 101.00 against the greenback. The yen rose back to 91.64 against the aussie, while against the kiwi, the yen rebounded from an early low of 87.11 and gained to 86.70. The yen hit 91.58 against the loonie, highest level since March 4. If the yen extends gain, it may find resistance around 90.00 against the aussie, 86.00 against the kiwi and 90.00 against the loonie.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Vietnam Central Bank To Lower Key Rates


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Vietnam's central bank will lower its key rates to help the government to meet its 5.8 percent growth target this year.
The State Bank of Vietnam will cut its refinancing rate to 6.5 percent from 7 percent, reports said Monday. Also, the interest-rate cap for dong deposits will be lowered to 6 percent from 7 percent, effective March 18.
The International Monetary Fund forecast only 5.4 percent growth for Vietnam this year, but slightly faster than the 5.3 percent rise estimated last year.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippine January Wholesale Price Inflation Weakens


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Philippines' wholesale price inflation weakened in January after picking up in each of the preceding four months, data published by the National Statistics Office revealed Tuesday.
The wholesale price index advanced 4.8 percent on an annual basis in January, which was slower than the 5.3 percent gain recorded in December. In November, prices grew by 4.1 percent.
The movement of the index was influenced slower growth rates of 32.4 percent for crude materials, inedible except fuels; and 6.2 percent for chemicals including animal and vegetable oils and fats.
However, higher annual increments were observed in mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, at 6.5 percent; manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials index, at 1.6 percent; and machinery and transport equipment, at 1.8 percent, data showed.
On a monthly basis, wholesale prices moved up 0.3 percent in the beginning of the year, after growing 1 percent in December, data showed.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Has Y800.3 Billion Trade Deficit


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Japan saw a merchandise trade deficit of 800.309 billion yen in February, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday. That missed forecasts for a shortfall of 600.9 billion yen following the downwardly revised deficit of 2,791.7 billion yen in January (originally 2,789.97 billion yen). Exports were up 9.8 percent on year - also shy of expectations for 12.5 percent following the 9.5 percent increase in the previous month. Imports added an annual 9.0 percent versus forecasts for 7.2 percent following the 25.1 percent spike a month earlier.


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[IFX Gertrude]

U.K. Household Finance Sentiment Drops Slightly From Record High: Markit


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Confidence among British households regarding their personal finances eased modestly in March, but hovered near February's record high signaling that the squeeze on finances remained less marked than seen over the past five years, survey data published by Markit Economics revealed Thursday.
The seasonally adjusted household finance index, which measures the overall perception of financial well-being, dropped to 41.9 in March from 42.1 in February, which was the highest score in the history of the survey. Index readings below 50 suggest weakness in confidence.
Confidence was supported by a fourth consecutive growth in income from employment. Also, households' perception of the current inflation situation dropped during March to the lowest level since December 2009.
At the same time, spending increased for the first time so far this year, helped by stronger economic conditions as highlighted by a robust rise in workplace activity.
The outlook component of the survey, which measures financial well-being over the next 12 months, dropped to 49 in March from a survey-record high of 50.5 in February. However, the latest reading was the second-highest since the series began in February 2009.
"Overall, the survey suggests that the UK economy has remained on a solid recovery path during the first quarter of 2014,"Markit Economist Tim Moore said.


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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Credit Card Spending +5.9% On Year


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Total credit card spending in New Zealand was up 5.9 percent on year in February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Friday, coming in at NZ$2.879 billion.
That's down from the upwardly revised 9.4 percent increase in January (originally 9.2 percent) to NZ$2.960 billion.
On a monthly basis, credit card spending was up 0.2 percent - slowing from the upwardly revised 1.2 percent increase in January (originally 1.0 percent).


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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Rises Further To 4-day High Against Franc


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The euro continued its uptrend against the Swiss franc in Asia on Monday. The euro that closed Friday's deals at 1.2167 against the franc reached a 4-day high of 1.2189. On the upside, 1.225 is seen as the next upside target level for the euro.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for March 24, 2014


http://forex-images.instaforex.com/userfiles/20140324/gbpjpy_24-3.png


Overview
In the today's H4 chart, we can notice that the pair opened this week below the Resistance level of 169.20 that would give the pair a good opportunity to start its bearish move. Actually, as shown, the pair took a slightly downward move and currently is trading above the support level of 168.50 and below the resistance level of 169.20 directly. More bearish signals are still expected as long as the pair is trading below the resistance level, so we can consider our first target few pips above the support level of 167.75, then it is preferred to wait for breaking this support level and closing 4H below to continue the bearish move.
Resistance and support levels: R3 (170.50), R2 (169.75), R1 (169.20), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3 (167.00).


More analysis - at instaforex.com

[IFX Gertrude]

Philippine Imports Rise Fore Third Month


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Philippines' merchandise imports increased for the third successive month in January, and at a significantly faster pace than in December, data published by the National Statistics Office showed Tuesday. The growth rate also far exceeded economists' expectations.
The value of imports climbed 21.8 percent on an annual basis to US$5.76 billion in January, which followed a 2.1 percent gain in December. Economists were looking for an 8.5 percent rise for January.
While nine of the top ten major commodities recorded growth during the month, the strong pick up was driven by an 11.1 percent rise in imports of electronic products. In December, the category had logged a 2.5 percent decline.
On a monthly basis, overall external purchases recorded a 6.4 percent growth in the beginning of the year, following December's 3.4 percent increase. Arrivals of electronics goods rose by 1.7 percent.
January's international trade resulted in a deficit of US$1.38 billion, which was notably higher than the US$716 million deficit recorded in the same month of last year. Expectations were for a lower shortfall of US$850 million.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Corporate Service Prices Rise 0.7%


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An index monitoring corporate service prices in Japan was up 0.7 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday, standing at 96.5.
That was unchanged from the January reading following a downward revision from 0.8 percent.
On a monthly basis, corporate service prices were up 0.3 percent following the 0.6 percent contraction in the previous month.
Among the individual components of the survey, prices were higher for civil engineering and software development - while they were lower for transportation, leasing and rental.

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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Climbs To Multi-month High Against Euro


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The New Zealand dollar strengthened against the euro and the US dollar in the Asian session on Thursday.
The NZ dollar rose to a multi-month high of 1.5973 against the euro and an 8-day high of 0.8631 against the US dollar, compared to yesterday's closing quotes of 1.6042 and 0.8591, respectively.
If the kiwi continues its uptrend, it may find target levels around 1.5920 against the euro and 0.8640 against the greenback.


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[IFX Gertrude]

UK Consumer Confidence Index Rises To -5


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An index measuring consumer confidence in the United Kingdom came in at -5 in March, the latest survey from GfK revealed on Friday.
That beat expectations for -6 and is up from -7 in February. It also marks the highest score since August 2007.
The index is also 22 points higher than it was a year earlier.
"People are now on balance more positive than negative about their own financial prospects over the next year," said Nick Moon, managing director for GfK's social research division. "It is unlikely that anything announced in the recent budget will reverse this."


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Auto Production Continues To Expand


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Japan's automobile production increased for the sixth consecutive month in February, data from the Japan Automobile Manufacturers' Association showed Monday.
Driven by huge domestic demand, auto production rose 7.1 percent or 57,186 units from a year ago to 863,397 units in February. Domestic sales surged 18.4 percent on a yearly basis, while exports declined 6 percent. At the same time, motorcycle production gained 9.6 percent annually to 56,348 units. This was the sixth consecutive rise in output. Domestic sales of motorcycle advanced 26.3 percent and exports climbed 21.1 percent.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Leaves Key Rate Unchanged At 2.5%


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The Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate unchanged on Tuesday as widely expected by economists. Policymakers led by Governor Glenn Stevens decided to maintain the cash rate at 2.50 percent. Members assessed the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates, the central bank said in a statement. The bank expects inflation to be consistent with the 2-3 percent target over the next two years. In the Board's judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. Looking ahead, the bank said continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand, and help growth to strengthen over time.


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[IFX Gertrude]

BoJ Tankan: Inflation Forecast 1.1% For Next Year


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The expectation for inflation over the next year in Japan is 1.1 percent, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday in the second half of its quarterly Tankan survey of consumer sentiment.
According to the all enterprise component, the inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.8 percent over the next three years, and then to 2.1 percent in five years.
However, among large manufacturers, inflation is expected to add just 0.2 percent over the next year, be flat in three years and then fall 0.3 percent in five years.
Among large non-manufacturers, inflation is called at 0.9 percent in the next year, 1.3 percent in three years and 1.5 percent in five years.
The first portion of the Tankan was released on Tuesday.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Swiss Franc Slides Against Most Majors


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The Swiss franc weakened against most major currencies in the Asian session on Thursday. The Swiss franc fell to an 8-day low of 1.2210 against the euro and a 4-day low of 1.4777 against the pound, from yesterday's closing quotes of 1.2204 and 1.4733, respectively. Against the U.S dollar, the franc touched 0.8873, heading to pierce yesterday's multi-day low of 0.8874. If the Swiss franc continues its downtrend, it is likely to find support around the 1.23 against the euro, 1.48 against the pound and 0.89 against the greenback.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysia's Export Growth Tops Expectations


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Malaysia's exports grew more than expected in February, while imports rose less than estimated, data showed Friday.
Exports registered a double-digit growth of 12.3 percent in February from the prior year, the Department of Statistics reported. Shipments were expected to rise 11.9 percent.
Exports of manufactured goods accounted for 66.4 percent of total exports. The increase in demand was contributed mainly by higher exports of electrical and electronic products.
Meanwhile, imports rose 9.5 percent from last year, slower than the expected 14.4 percent increase.
The trade surplus surged 27.2 percent to MYR 10.44 billion in February, which was bigger than a MYR 8.45 billion expected surplus.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Contraction Slows For Australia Construction Sector


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An index monitoring activity in Australia's construction sector saw a seasonally adjusted score of 46.2 in March, the Australian Industry Group and Housing Industry Association said on Monday in their Performance of Construction Index - up from 44.2 in February. Construction activity contracted for the third straight month, the survey showed, as a score below 50 signals decline and a score above 50 means expansion.
"As is the case with the broader economy, the rebalancing of the construction sector as mining-related activity slows still has a considerable way to go," said AiG Director of Public Policy Peter Burn in a release accompanying the data.
Among the individual components of the survey, the new orders sub-index saw its contraction slow dramatically, jumping from 39.5 in February to 48.3 in March.
The employment sub-index continued to weaken, falling from 46.0 in February to 42.7. The sub-index for construction climbed from 45.3 in February to 48.3 in March. House building dipped from 52.2 in the previous month to 50.8, while apartment building fell from 46.6 to 45.6.
Commercial construction tumbled from 59.9 to 56.5 points, and engineering construction surged from 39.7 to 45.5.
"What the sector and broader economy needs, however, is a sustained recovery in new home building commensurate with average construction levels being considerably higher over coming decades than those achieved over the past 20 years," said HIA chief economist Harley Dale.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Ticks Down After Bank Of Japan Monetary Policy Decision


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As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its monetary easing program unchanged in the Asian session on Tuesday. Following the announcement, the yen inched down against other major currencies. The yen was trading at 102.93 against the greenback, 141.46 against the euro, 115.94 against the franc and 171.01 against the pound around 11:01 pm ET.


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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Strengthens Against Most Majors


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The New Zealand dollar drifted higher against most major rivals in early Asian deals on Wednesday.
The kiwi spiked up to 1.5835 against the euro, a level not seen since March 28. Against the greenback, the kiwi approached 0.8707 for the first time since August 2011.
The kiwi rose to 88.72 against the yen from Tuesday's closing quote of 88.25.
If the kiwi extends gain, it may face resistance around 0.875 against the greenback, 1.56 against the euro and 89.8 against the yen.


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[IFX Gertrude]

China Has $7.71 Billion Trade Surplus In March


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China posted a merchandise trade surplus of $7.71 billion in March, the customs office said on Thursday.
That topped forecasts for a surplus of $0.9 billion following the $23.0 billion shortfall - largely due to the Lunar New Year holiday - in the previous month.
Exports were down 6.6 percent on year, missing expectations for an increase of 4.0 percent following the 18.1 percent contraction in February. Imports tumbled an annual 11.3 percent versus forecasts for a gain of 2.4 percent following the 10.1 percent increase a month earlier.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Rises To 8- Day High Against Pound


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The European currency strengthened against the pound in the early Asian session on Friday. The euro advanced to an 8-day high of 0.8287 against the British currency, up almost 0.2 percent from yesterday's closing quote of 0.8273. If the euro continues its uptrend, it may find the resistance around the 0.83 area.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Weakens Against Most Majors


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The Japanese yen declined against most major currencies in Asian deals on Wednesday. The yen slipped to 102.19 against the greenback, a level not seen since April 8. The yen hit 5-day lows of 141.15 against the euro, 116.05 against the franc and 93.04 against the loonie, compared to Tuesday's closing values of 140.79, 115.80 and 92.83, respectively. The next possible downside target for the yen lies around 103.00 against the greenback, 142.00 against the euro, 117.00 against the franc and 94.00 against the loonie.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 16, 2014


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British inflation fell to its lowest in over four years in March, easing pressure on living standards and raising the prospect that prices may now be rising less than wages for the first time in years. Tuesday's data showed that consumer price inflation dropped to 1.6 percent in March from February's 1.7 percent - the lowest level since October 2009, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Wage numbers are due today, they are forecast to show average earnings growth picking up to 1.8 percent from 1.4 percent - which if true, would be the first time that wages have outpaced inflation since April 2010. British wages typically rose by around 4-5 percent a year before the financial crisis, but since mid-2008 have mostly risen by less than inflation.
The pair has been in a down trend from 1.6820 levels. The pair is taking support at 1.67 levels and facing resistance at 1.6750. Currently, it is trading between 1.67-1.6750 levels. Break out either side will give a room to further levels. If the pair breaks the upper band at 1.6750, it will fly up to 1.6787 and 1.6820. On the down side the pair has support at 1.67, 1.666 and 1.6640. The level at 1.6640 is very crucial for bulls, if it breaks, it will breaks 1.6570 and 1.6550.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales Dip 0.3%


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The total number of new motor vehicle sales in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, coming in at 92,168.
That follows the 0.1 percent increase in February.
By category, sales of passenger and other vehicles decreased 3.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, while sales of sports utility vehicles climbed 4.9 percent.
By region, the Northern Territory recorded the largest percentage decrease (3.0 percent) followed by Tasmania (2.7 percent) and the Australian Capital Territory (2.1 percent).
On a yearly basis, new car sales were down 2.8 percent after falling 3.5 percent in the previous month.



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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Drops Against Majors


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Reversing direction, the New Zealand dollar slipped against other major currencies in Asian deals on Monday.
The kiwi fell to 0.8557 against the greenback, its lowest since April 4. This may be compared to an early 4-day high of 0.8600.
Pulling away from an early 4-day high of 1.6056 against the euro, the kiwi slipped to near a 3-week low of 1.6133.
The kiwi has come off from an early high of 1.0849 against the aussie, declining to a 4-day low of 1.0891.
The kiwi fell back slightly against the yen and was trading around 87.87, compared to an early 4-day high of 88.13.
If the kiwi extends decline, it is likely to seek downside target around 0.85 against the greenback, 1.62 against the euro, 1.095 against the aussie and 87.00 against the yen.



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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Leading Index Rises 0.3% In February - Conference Board


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A leading economic index for Australia was up 0.3 percent on month in February, the Conference Board said on Tuesday - rising for the 17th consecutive month.
That follows the 0.2 percent gain in January.
The coincident index climbed 0.4 percent in February following the 0.2 percent increase in the previous month.



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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Credit Card Spending Jumps 1.3%


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Total credit card spending in New Zealand was up a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent on month in March, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Wednesday - coming in at NZ$3.062 billion.
That was up sharply from the upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in February )(originally 0.3 percent).
On a yearly basis, total credit card spending surged 8.1 percent - up from the upwardly revised 6.0 percent in the previous month (originally 5.9 percent).


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[IFX Gertrude]

China Leading Economic Index +1.2% In March


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China's leading economic index was up 1.2 percent on month in March, the Conference Board said on Thursday. That's up from the 0.9 percent increase in February and the 0.3 percent gain in January. The coincident index added 1.1 percent in March - up from the flat reading in February and the 1.3 percent decline in January.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Retail Sales Spike 11.0% On Year In March

Retail sales in Japan surged 11.0 percent on year in March, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday, worth 13.731 trillion yen.
That was in line with forecasts following the 3.6 percent gain in February.
Sales from large retailers surged an annual 16.1 percent - topping expectations for 13.8 percent following the 1.3 percent increase in the previous month.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales climbed 6.3 percent - beating forecasts for 6.0 percent and up sharply from 0.3 percent a month prior.

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[IFX Gertrude]

South Korea Current Account Surplus $7.35 Billion


South Korea saw an unadjusted current account surplus of $7.35 billion in March, the Bank of Korea said on Tuesday.That's up from the $4.52 billion surplus on February and the $3.61 billion surplus in January.
The financial account recorded a net outflow of 5.78 billion dollars, down from 6.92 billion dollars the previous month.
Seasonally adjusted, the current account surplus was $6.65 billion - down from $7.57 billion in February.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Advances Against Majors

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The Japanese yen climbed against other major currencies in early Asian deals on Wednesday.
The yen rose to 172.39 against the pound, 115.96 against the franc, 102.49 against the greenback and 93.59 against the loonie.
The yen climbed to a 2-day high of 141.52 versus the euro, compared to yesterday's closing quote of 141.59.
If the yen extends gain, it is likely to face resistance around 101.00 against the greenback, 115.00 against the franc, 140.00 against the euro, 171.5 against the pound and 92.00 against the loonie.



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[IFX Gertrude]

China Manufacturing PMI 48.1 In April - HSBC

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China's manufacturing sector continued to contract in April, the latest survey from HSBC and Markit Economics revealed on Monday - with a final purchasing managers' index score of 48.1.
That was down from last month's flash estimate of 48.3, although it was up from the final March reading of 48.0.
A reading above 50 signals expansion in a sector, while a score below means contraction.
In all, the index shows that China's manufacturing sector has been in contraction for four straight months.
Among the individual components of the survey, output and new orders contract at slower rates, while staff numbers were cut for the sixth month in a row. There was also a solid reduction in both input and output prices.


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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Climbs Against Majors

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The New Zealand dollar drifted higher against other major currencies in Asian deals on Tuesday. The kiwi strengthened to 0.8705 against the greenback for the first time since April 11. The kiwi advanced to near a 4-week high of 88.90 against yen and a 3-week high of 1.5937 against the euro. The kiwi spiked up to 1.0670 against the aussie, a level not seen since April 1. The next possible upside target for the kiwi is seen around 0.879 against the greenback, 89.5 against the yen, 1.58 against the euro and 1.06 against the aussie

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Retail Sales Add 0.1% In March

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Total retail sales in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on month in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$23.149 billion. That was shy of forecasts for a gain of 0.4 percent following the upwardly revised gain of 0.3 percent in February (originally 0.2 percent). For the first quarter of 2014, retail sales climbed 1.2 percent on quarter to A$67.519 billion - in line with expectations, but missing forecasts for 1.6 percent after gaining 1.1 percent in the three months prior.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Pound Declines Against Most Majors

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The pound slipped against most major currencies in Asian deals on Thursday. The pound dropped to a 2-day low of 1.6943 against the greenback, compared to Wednesday's closing quote of 1.6949. The pound edged down to 1.4843 against the franc and 0.8211 against the euro. If the pound continues its downtrend, it is likely to find support around 1.68 against the greenback, 1.475 against the franc and 0.83 against the euro.

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[IFX Gertrude]

U.S. Dollar Advances Against Majors

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The U.S. dollar strengthened against its major rivals in Asian deals on Friday.
The greenback climbed to 0.8811 against franc, its highest since May 2. Against the euro and the pound, the greenback hit a weekly high of 1.3831 and a 3-day high of 1.6919, respectively.
Rebounding from an early low of 101.54 against the yen, the greenback edged up to 101.75.
The greenback may possibly face resistance around 102.5 against the yen, 0.89 against the franc, 1.375 against the euro and 1.68 against the pound.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro At Near 3-month Low Against Pound

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The euro drifted lower against the pound in Asian deals on Monday. The euro slipped to 0.8158 against the pound, a level unseen since February 17. If the euro extends slide, it may face support around the 0.81 area. The pair was worth 0.8165 at Friday's close.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Home Loans Dip 0.9% In March

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he total number of home loans in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on month in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday, standing at 52,013. That was well shy of forecasts for an increase of 1.0 percent following the 2.3 percent gain in February. The value of housing loans was down 1.1 percent on month to A$27.346 billion. The number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments surged 12.6 percent on month in March.

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[IFX Gertrude]

South Korea Export Prices Dip 2.5% In April

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Export prices in South Korea were down 2.5 percent on month in April, the Bank of Korea said on Wednesday, after easing 0.4 percent in March. On a yearly basis, export prices dropped 7.3 percent after shedding 4.3 percent in the previous month. Import prices also were down 2.5 percent on month following the 0.5 percent fall in the previous month. On a yearly basis, prices tumbled 7.0 percent after shedding 4.5 percent a month earlier.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yuan Rises To 8-day High Against U.S Dollar

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The yuan strengthened against the U.S dollar in the early Asian session on Thursday. Against the greenback, the yuan rose to an 8-day high of 6.2250, up from yesterday's closing quote of 6.2292. The next possible upside target of the yuan is seen at 6.21. The People Bank of China set today's central parity rate for yuan at 6.1653. per dollar, compared to Friday's reference rate of 6.1640. The central bank sets the reference rate every morning and allows the currency to move upto 2 percent from that level.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Little Changed Following Japan Industrial Production Data

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Japan's final industrial production data for March was released at 12:30 am ET Friday. Following the data, the Yen little changed against other major currencies. As of 12:32 am ET, the Yen was trading at 139.20 against the Euro, 170.38 against the Pound, 113.98 against the Swiss franc and 101.48 against the U.S dollar.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Falls Against Most Majors

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The Australian dollar weakened against the most major currencies in the late Asian session on Monday. The Australian dollar fell to a 4-day low of 1.0160 against the Canadian dollar. The pair closed last week's deals at 1.0169. Against the yen, the Australian dollar slipped to 94.86, from early multi-day high of 95.20. The pair closed last week's deals at 95.04. The Australian dollar fell to 1.4652 against the euro and 0.9352 against the U.S dollar, from early multi-day highs of 1.4607 and 0.9376, respectively. The aussie closed last week's deals at 1.4625 against the euro and 0.9364 against the greenback. If the Australian dollar extends its fall, it is likely to find support around 1.00 against the Canadian dollar, 94.54 against the yen, 1.48 against the euro and 0.92 against the greenback.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Slides Against Majors

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The Japanese yen weakened against the other major currencies in early Asian deals on Tuesday. The yen slipped to 113.88 against the franc, 170.81 against the pound and a session's low of 101.59 against the greenback. The yen hit 139.30 against the euro, its lowest since May 16. The yen fell to 93.41 against the loonie, compared to yesterday's closing quote of 93.29. If the yen extends slide, it may face support around 102.00 against the greenback, 172.00 against the pound, 140.00 against the euro, 114.6 against the franc and 93.6 against the loonie.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Bank Of Japan Maintains Monetary Policy Unchanged

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Following the conclusion of a 2-day monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan maintained status quo position with respect to its monetary policy. The Monetary Policy Board led by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda opted to persist with its policy of increasing the monetary base at an annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen despite cautioning of a reduction in demand and risk to economic growth due to the sales tax hike that came into effect in April.
The decision was adopted by an unanimous vote. The central bank continued to hold its economic assessment by repeating that the domestic economy is continuing to recover moderately as trend. At the same time, the bank indicated that demand has been hurt by the front-loaded increase before the tax hike. Among the changes observed in the commentary on growth was on public investment, which was termed as having leveled off at a high level.
The inflation commentary was also maintained unchanged. Going forward, the central bank expects the economy to continue a moderate recovery, as a trend, and the annual inflation, excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike, to be around 1.25 percent for some time. There was a dissension with respect to the time frame for the quantitative and qualitative easing, with the majority of the view that the measures have to be persisted as long as the 2 percent price stability target is maintained in a stable manner. Meanwhile, board member Takahide Kiuchi, who dissented, called for a time frame of about 2 years for the easing measures.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Canadian Dollar Strengthens Against Most Majors

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The Canadian dollar advanced against most major opponents in Asian deals on Thursday. The loonie hit a 2-day high of 93.12 against the yen, following a multi-week low of 92.47 touched on Wednesday. The loonie edged up to 1.0904 against the greenback and 1.4915 against the euro. If the loonie extends gain, it may seek resistance around 1.08 against the greenback, 94.00 against the yen and 1.48 against the euro.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China Leading Index Slows In April - Conference Board

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China's leading economic index, measuring the future economic conditions, continued to rise in April though at a slower rate, a report from the Conference Board showed Friday. The leading index, at 288.1, was up 0.9 percent month-over-month in April following a 1.1 percent increase in March. The coincident index that measures the current economic situation rose 0.4 percent in April after rising 1.3 percent in March. The slower rate of increase of the leading index was driven by a decrease in total industrial activity and retail sales, said the report. "Its overall expansion remains weaker than the latter half of 2013 and underlying volatility in the economy has increased. Subdued LEI growth, combined with growth rates in industrial activity and retail sales running at their lowest since 2004, suggest that the slower trend of economic growth will continue into the third quarter at least," said Andrew Polk, Conference Board economist.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysian Ringgit Rises To 4-day High Against U.S. Dollar

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The Malaysian ringgit strengthened against the U.S. dollar in the Asian session on Monday. Against the greenback, the ringgit rose to a 4-day high of 3.2069, from last week's closing quote of 3.2120. If the ringgit extends it rise, it is likely to find resistance around the 3.19 area.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Indian Rupee Falls To 11-day Low Against U.S. Dollar

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The Indian rupee weakened against the U.S. dollar in the morning deals on Tuesday. Against the greenback, the rupee fell to an 11-day low of 58.9705, from yesterday's closing quote of 58.7350. If the rupee extends its slide, it is likely to find support around the 59.57 zone. The rupee is seeing a pullback after its recent rally, triggered by the election of Narendra Modi as India's 15th Prime Minister. Modi was sworn in as the country's executive head yesterday and the swearing in ceremony was attended by heads of neighboring countries, industrialist and celebrities among others.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Indian Rupee Slips To Nearly 2-week Low Against U.S. Dollar

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The Indian rupee dropped against the U.S. dollar in the morning deals on Wednesday. Against the greenback, the rupee fell to nearly a 2-week low of 59.2100, down from yesterday's closing quote of 58.9800. If the rupee extends its downtrend, it is likely to find support around the 59.70 area.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippine Q1 GDP Growth Slows; Trails Expectations

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The Philippine economy grew at a slower-than-expected rate in the first quarter of 2014, figures from the National Statistical Coordination Board showed Thursday.

Gross domestic product for the first quarter rose 5.7 percent year-over-year, trailing expectations of a 6.4 percent increase. This follows the revised 6.3 percent rise in the previous quarter.

The industry sector, one of the three major sectors contributing to the GDP, grew at a year-over-year rate of 5.5 percent in the first quarter, lower by 11.3 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year and 7.6 percent compared to the previous quarter.

The services sector contributed 3.8 percentage points to the GDP growth, followed by the industry sector and the agriculture sector contributing 1.8 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.

The gross national income grew by 7.6 percent owing to an increase of 17.3 percent in the net primary income from the rest of the world.

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[IFX Gertrude]

UK Consumer Confidence Hits Nine-Year High

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An index measuring consumer sentiment in the United Kingdom came in with a score of 0 in May, polling company GfK said on Friday.

That beat forecasts for a score of -2 and was up from -3 in April. The May reading represents a nine-year high score for the index.

Also on Friday, property tracking website Hometrack said that house prices in the UK were up 0.5 percent on month and 6.1 percent on year.

That follows the 0.6 percent monthly increase and the 6.0 percent yearly gain in April.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Singapore Dollar Off Multi-week Low Against U.S. Dollar

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The Singapore dollar trimmed its early losses against the U.S. dollar in Asian deals on Tuesday. The Singapore dollar that fell to a multi-week low of 1.2571 against the greenback in early deals reversed direction with pair trading around 1.2556. The pair was worth 1.2569 at yesterday's close.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Malaysian Ringgit Falls To Near 3-week Low Against U.S. Dollar

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The Malaysian Ringgit lost ground against the U.S. dollar in Asian deals on Wednesday. The ringgit fell to 3.2370 against the greenback, its weakest since May 14. On the downside, the ringgit may find support around the 3.24 zone. At yesterday's close, the pair was quoted at 3.2305.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippines Producer Prices Rise For Second Month

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Philippine producer prices increased for the second straight month in April, led by the higher uptick of petroleum products, figures from the National Statistical Office showed Thursday. The producer price index rose 0.1 percent year-on-year in April, slower than March's revised 0.3 percent increase. In February , prices fell 0.6 percent. Prices of petroleum products jumped 13.6 percent annually in April. Cost of food manufacturing and electrical machinery also grew by 4.5 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively. At the same time, prices of furniture and fixtures logged a sharp decline of 27.9 percent. On a monthly basis, producer prices dropped 0.5 percent in April, in contrast to the 0.2 percent growth in the previous month.

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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand House Prices Continue To Rise In May

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House prices in New Zealand continued to rise for the second consecutive month in May while sales volume declined, figures from Quotable Value, QV, showed Friday. The QV Residential Price Movement Index rose 8.2 percent year-over-year in May. The index stood 13.9 percent higher than the previous market peak of 2007. After adjusting for inflation, house prices fell 6.6 percent year-over-year and remained 2.2 percent below the 2007 peak. "Sales volumes around the country are 10 to 15 percent lower than they were this time last year which could be a normal winter seasonal effect but it could also be a precursor to values dropping," said QV National Spokesperson Andrea Rush. "The LVR lending restrictions continue to have an effect in many of the regions with activity significantly slower at the entry level end of the market."

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australian Dollar Climbs Against Most Majors

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The Australian dollar advanced against most major currencies in early Asian deals on Monday. The aussie hit 95.91 against the yen for the first time since May 14. The aussie that closed Friday's deals at 0.9327 against the greenback and 1.0196 against the loonie rose to 0.9350 and 1.0224, respectively. The aussie edged up to 1.4590 against the euro, compared to last week's closing quote of 1.4606. If the aussie extends gain, it may face resistance around 0.94 against the greenback, 97.4 against the yen, 1.45 against the euro and 1.035 against the loonie.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippine Export Growth Weakens Sharply In April

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Philippines merchandise export growth weakened considerably in April, defying expectations for a strong increase , preliminary figures from the Philippine Statistical Authority showed Tuesday.

Total exports of the country advanced 0.8 percent year-on-year in April, after a 12.4 percent climb in the previous month, well below economists' forecast for 10.0 percent of growth.

Shipments of electronic products dropped 2.5 percent annually in April. A year ago, exports of this category of goods had risen 12.2 percent. Exports of other manufactured products also declined by 12.2 percent. Meanwhile, exports of processed food and beverages jumped 110.1 percent in April and that of other mineral products by 30.9 percent.

In the first four month period, total merchandise exports expanded 5.4 percent to $ 18.859 billion from $17.894 billion in the same period last year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Advances Against Majors

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The Japanese yen strengthened against its major counterparts in Asia on Wednesday. The yen bounced back to 102.29 against the greenback, from an early low of 102.38. The yen climbed to 138.33 against the euro, its strongest since May 30, and a 9-day high of 113.56 against the franc. The yen hit 171.23 against the pound, its strongest since June 2. The next possible upside target level for the yen is seen around 101.5 against the greenback, 170.5 against the pound, 113.00 against the franc and 137.4 against the euro.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Unemployment Rate Stable In May

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The unemployment rate Australia remained stable for the third consecutive month in May, a report from the Australian Bureau Of Statistics showed Thursday.

The unemployment rate came in at 5.8 percent in May, the same rate as in April and March. Compared to a year ago, the unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points in May.

The number of unemployed people rose by 3,200 over the month to 717,100 in May. Out of the total, the number of unemployed looking for full-time work rose 9,000 to 529,700 and for part-time it decreased 5,900 to 187,400.

The number of employed people fell 4,800 over the month to 11,564,600. The number of full-time employees rose 22,200 while number of part-time employees fell 27,000 in May.

However, the participation rate fell to 64.6 in May from 64.7 in April.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yuan Strengthens To 2-month High Against U.S. Dollar

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The Yuan strengthened against the U.S. dollar in the Asian session on Friday. Against the greenback, the yuan rose to a 2-month high of 6.2066. At yesterday's close, the yuan was trading at 6.2180. If the yuan extends its gain, it is likely to find resistance around the 6.19 area. The People Bank of China set today's central parity rate for yuan at 6.1503 per dollar, compared to Thursday's reference rate of 6.1516. The central bank sets the reference rate every morning and allows the currency to move upto 2 percent from that level. Traders focus on China's industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data for May due shortly.

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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Growth To Accelerate In FY 2015 - NZ Institute For Economic Research

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The consensus forecast for New Zealand is optimistic for 2015, data from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research showed Monday. According to consensus forecasts, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.8 percent in the year ending March 2015 from 3.1 percent in the previous year. Broad based growth across household spending, investment and exports is forecast. Economic growth is likely to moderate to 2.8 percent and 2.1 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Residential construction surge is estimated to continue for the upcoming five years and exports are expected to rebound after remaining almost flat in the past year. An improvement in the labour market is forecast, with the unemployment rate likely to fall to an average of 5 percent from the historically high levels of 5.9 percent. Wages are expected to increase, growing 3.1 percent on an average over the upcoming 3 years, and supporting household spending. Consumer price inflation is expected to flatten over the next two years.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Declines Against Majors

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The Japanese yen lost ground against its key counterparts in Asian deals on Tuesday. The yen fell to 4-day lows of 138.45 against the euro, 113.64 against the franc and 94.02 against the loonie. The yen dropped to 173.13 against the pound and 102.06 against the greenback, compared to yesterday's closing values of 172.88 and 101.82, respectively. If the yen declines further, it may find support around 102.5 against the greenback, 114.00 against the franc, 174.00 against the pound, 139.5 against the euro and 94.7 against the loonie.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China House Prices Growth Continues To Slow

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House prices in China rose at a slower rate in May, figures from Reuters based on a National Bureau of Statistics report showed on Wednesday.

New house prices in the major cities of China increased 5.6 percent year-over-year in May compared with a 6.7 percent rise in April. The growth in house prices has been slow since late 2013 due to the effect of a sustained campaign to keep a check on speculative investment and easy credit, the bureau said.

The slower rate of growth in the housing market, accounting for 20 percent of China's GDP, dragged the first quarter GDP to 7.4 percent year-over-year.


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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Service Sector Activity Contracts In June

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Japan's service sector activity declined further in June, results of a survey by Markit Economics showed Thursday.

The Markit Japan Services PMI edged down to 49.0 in June from 49.3 in May, signaling contraction for the third consecutive month. The decrease in service sector output was driven by the recent increase in sales tax, the survey showed.

Staffing levels declined for the first time since December 2013 in May. Input costs, which have been on the rise since November 2012, continued to increase and output prices grew for the fifth successive month in May, marking the longest stretch of inflation in survey history for both.

In contrast to the decreasing trend, new orders increased for the first time in three months in May.

Perceptions on business activity for the upcoming year were more positive than in the current year.

The composite output index, a combined measure of manufacturing activity and service sector activity, came in at 50 in May, indicating stagnation. In April, the index posted 49.2.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Yen Falls Slightly After BOJ Rate Decision

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As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained target for monetary base expansion at an annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen. Following the announcement, the yen fell slightly against other major currencies. The yen was trading at 101.61 against the greenback, 138.36 against the euro, 173.57 against the pound and 113.88 against the franc around 11.10.

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[IFX Yvonne]

Australian Dollar Rises Ahead Of Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech

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The Australian dollar strengthened against the other major currencies in the Asian session on Friday ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The two-day Economic Symposium that began on Thursday in the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world in the New York session. The meetings are closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. Yellen will speak on the labor market at the summit. Traders look ahead to the speech for further cues on the monetary policy outlook. European Central Bank's governor Mario Draghi and Bank of Japan's governor Haruhiko Kuroda are also due to deliver some potential market moving headlines. The Asian policymakers are closely monitoring to get some clues from the discussion of setting next week's labor market dynamics from Yellen's speech. Traders are more concerned of any sign of rising global rates will spark a new wave of outflows. The Australian dollar rose to a 14-month high of 96.76 against the yen, from an early low of 96.56. If the aussie extends its uptrend, it is likely to find resistance around the 96.90 area. Against the euro, the aussie rallied to a 1-month high of 1.4248 from an early low of 1.4279. The aussie may test resistance near the 1.41 area. The aussie, which closed yesterday's deals at 0.9301 against the U.S. dollar, firmed to a 3-day high of 0.9318. This may be compared to an early low of 0.9299 against the greenback. On the upside, 0.937 is seen as next resistance level for the aussie. Moving away from an early low of 1.0174 against the Canadian dollar, the aussie advanced to a 2-day high of 1.0193. Continuation of bullish trend may lead the aussie to a resistance around the 1.02 mark. Against the NZ dollar, the aussie edged up to 1.1092 from an early low of 1.1062. At yesterday's close, the aussie was trading at 1.1062 against the kiwi. The aussie is likely to find resistance around the 1.11 area. Looking ahead, Canada CPI for July and retail sales data for June are due to be released in the New York session.


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[fxapex]

Last week USD has been strong against most of the currencies and did provide with good returns, there are chances of it continuing in the coming month too.

[IFX Yvonne]

Gold Stable amid U.S. Government Shutdown Worries

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Gold prices were on a steady footing on Monday amid a weaker dollar as the U.S. government shutdown due to a spending-bill impasse affected investor sentiment.

Spot fold was almost trading flat at $1, 331.57 per ounce. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1, 331.30. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trump increased 0.70 percent to 846.67 tonnes.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges to greenback versus a basket of currencies declined by as much as 0.5 percent to 90.155.

Funds for federal government agencies have run dry at midnight on Friday and was not replenished immediately amid a dispute between U.S. President Donald Trump and Democrats over the issue of immigration. Leaders of the Republican and Democratic senators held talks on Sunday as they look to break a deadlock that has kept the U.S. government shut down for two days. However, it was vague if an agreement could be reached to reopen federal agencies by the beginning of the workweek.

Another factor contributing to the bullishness of the gold was data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which showed that hedged funds and money managers had increased their net long position in COMEX gold contracts in the week ending January 16.

Spot silver traded up 0.1 percent to$17.01. Platinum declined 0.1 percent to $1,011.65 after hitting its highest since September 8 at $1, 015.20 on Friday.

[IFX Gertrude]

Turkey Retail Sales Fall For First Time In 19 Months



Turkey's retail sales volume declined for the first time in over one-and-a-half years in September, preliminary data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday.

The retail sales volume dropped a calendar adjusted 3.4 percent year-on-year following a 1.5 percent increase in August. The latest decline was the first since February 2017, when sales decreased 1 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, retail sales fell a seasonally-and-calendar adjusted 4.6 percent in September after a 0.2 percent gain in August. The latest drop was the first since February this year, when sales decreased 1 percent.

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[IFX Gertrude]

RBA Minutes: Domestic Economy Improved More Than Expected

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Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board said that the country's economy has continued to pick up steam, and at a slightly faster rate than expected, minutes from the central bank's November 6 meeting revealed on Tuesday.

At the meeting, the RBA kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low of 1.50 percent for the 26th consecutive meeting. The interest rate has been at the current level since August 2016.

"Members judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the minutes said.

The appreciating U.S. dollar and its effect on the Australian currency has helped to boost domestic growth, the minutes said. They added that the inflation rate remained low and stable beneath the midpoint of the target range, as expected.

They further added that while a change to the rate is not imminent, it's likely to be an increase - not a decrease, owing to the improvements in the economy.

"There was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy. Rather, members assessed that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady and for the Bank to be a source of stability and confidence while this progress unfolds," the minutes said.

Although policymakers expect further progress in the reduction of unemployment and inflation returning to target, this progress is likely to be gradual, the bank noted.

The Australian economy was performing well with the GDP growing by 3.4 percent and the unemployment rate declining to five percent over the past year, the RBA said.

The bank revised up its economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019. Economic growth is expected to be around 3.5 percent over these two years, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources.

"Taking account of the available information on current economic and financial conditions, as well as the latest forecasts, members assessed that the current stance of monetary policy would continue to support economic growth and allow for further gradual progress to be made in reducing the unemployment rate and returning inflation towards the midpoint of the target," the minutes said.

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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Advances Against Majors

The New Zealand dollar climbed against its major counterparts in late Asian deals on Wednesday.

The kiwi advanced to 0.6813 against the greenback, from an early weekly low of 0.6782.

The kiwi climbed to 76.92 against the yen and 1.6700 against the euro, off its previous 8-day low of 76.44 and a 2-day low of 1.6760, respectively.

The kiwi rose back to 1.0614 against the aussie, after falling to 1.0649 at 9:15 pm ET.

If the kiwi rises further, it may find resistance around 0.69 against the greenback, 78.00 against the yen, 1.65 against the euro and 1.05 against the aussie.

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[IFX Gertrude]

The Ifo business climate index in Germany fell to 102 in November

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According to the Ifo Institute, the mood in German companies continued to decline in November, worsening their business forecasts for the next six months. The business climate index in November, calculated by the institute, fell from the October mark of 102.9 to 102.0. Experts predicted that the figure will be 102.3.

Thus, we can conclude that the German economy is showing signs of cooling, notes Ifo's president, Clemens Fuest. Manufacturing companies are unhappy with the current situation in the country and fear that the prospects for the success of their business are in doubt. However, according to Ifo, the number of companies willing to raise prices has increased.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Brexit could cut UK GDP by 5.5% by 2030

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According to a study by the London School of Economics and King's College, UK GDP could be reduced by 5.5% by 2030 compared to what the United Kingdom could be in the European Union. Moreover, in the absence of a transaction, the growth of the British economy can be from 3.5% to 8.7%.

By making such assumptions, the authors of the study paid attention to the likelihood of the emergence of trade barriers after Britain's withdrawal from the EU and the decline in immigration flow. At the same time, the study was carried out taking into account the preservation of Great Britain in the customs union, but exclusion from the single market.

Experts also believe that Brexit will entail an increase in regulatory barriers to trade not only in goods but also in services. Also, the deal will mean a restriction of freedom of movement between countries, which will lead to a reduction in both skilled and unskilled workers from other countries.

Together, all these factors will lead to the fact that the growth rate of the British economy will be lower than 1.9-5.5% , if the country remained in the EU.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Company Operating Profits Rise 1.9% In Q3

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Company operating profits in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

That missed expectations for an increase of 2.8 percent and was down from 2.0 percent in the three months prior.

Inventories were flat on quarter, missing forecasts for an increase of 0.4 percent and down from 0.6 percent in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, company profits were up 13.5 percent and inventories gained 1.6 percent. Wages and salaries were up 0.9 percent on quarter and 4.3 percent on year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

RBA Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged At Record Low

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The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday decided to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low citing sluggish wage growth and low inflation.

The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, governed by Philip Lowe, voted to maintain the cash rate at 1.50 percent. The interest rate has remained at the current level since August 2016.

"Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the bank said in a statement.

Policymakers observed that the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Policymakers expect further progress in the reduction of unemployment and inflation returning to target, but this progress is likely to be gradual.

The Australian economy is performing well with the GDP growth expected to average around 3.5 percent for this year and next, the bank said.

Inflation is forecast to pick up in the coming years, with the growth likely to be gradual. The central scenario is for inflation to be 2.25 percent in 2019 and a bit higher in the following year.

Labour market remained strong with the unemployment rate declining to five percent over the past year. As the economy is expected to continue to grow above trend, a further reduction in the unemployment rate is likely, the bank noted.

Concerning property market, the RBA said conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued to ease and nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low.

The outlook for household consumption remained as a source of uncertainty for the economy, the bank cautioned.

Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased, while the demand by investors has slowed noticeably due to changing dynamics of the housing market, it added.

The RBA statement sounded a little cautious by assessing external conditions to be less favorable, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Thieliant suggested that the Bank seemed to be getting a bit more worried about the downturn in the housing market.

Given dovish outlook for the economy and prices, the economist believe that rates will not rise until late in 2020.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China Services PMI Surges In November - Caixin

The services sector in China continued to expand in November, and at a greatly accelerated rate, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Wednesday with a PMI score of 53.8.

That beat expectations for 50.8, which would have been unchanged from the October reading. It also moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Also, the composite index jumped to 51.9 in November, up from 50.5 a month earlier.

Individually, November marked the steepest increase in services activity in five months, while manufacturing production remained stable.

Composite new businesses climbed at their quickest pace since June, while inflationary pressures cooled.

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[IFX Gertrude]

The European Commission presented a plan to reduce dependence on the US dollar

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The European Commission (EC) on Wednesday, December 5, published a plan to strengthen the global role of the euro in world markets.

EC Vice President for the Euro and Social Dialogue Valdis Dombrovskis said that Brussels intends to make the euro a more attractive currency for international payments than the US dollar. In addition, it is planned to use the euro more for calculations on the global oil and gas markets, as well as in strategic sectors of the economy.

According to officials, the euro must comply with the political, economic and financial level of the eurozone in order to act as a tool for legal regulation of the international political and economic order.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Q3 House Price Index Drops 1.5%

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House prices in Australia fell 1.5 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 1.6 percent following the 0.7 percent drop in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, house prices skidded 1.9 percent - again exceeding forecasts for a fall of 2.0 percent following the 0.6 percent decline in the previous three months.

The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Melbourne (-2.6 percent), Sydney (-1.9 percent), Perth (-0.6 percent) and Darwin (-0.9 percent), and rose in Brisbane (+0.6 percent), Adelaide (+0.6 percent), Hobart (+1.3 percent) and Canberra (+0.5 percent).

Annually, residential property prices fell in Sydney (-4.4 percent), Darwin (-4.4 percent), Melbourne (-1.5 percent), Perth (-0.5 percent) and rose in Hobart (+13.0 percent), Canberra (+3.7 percent), Adelaide (+2.0 percent) and Brisbane (+1.7 percent).

The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was A$6.847 trillion at the end of the September quarter 2018, falling $70.148 billion over the quarter.

The mean price of residential dwellings fell A$9,700 to A$675,000 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 40,900 to 10,143,700 in the September quarter 2018.

Also on Tuesday, the business confidence index from NAB came in with a score of +3 in November - down from +4 in October. The index for business conditions slipped to +11 from +12 a month earlier.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Singapore Retail Sales Growth Slows Sharply In October

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Singapore's retail sales grew for a second straight month in October, but the pace of increased slowed sharply, amid weaker sales in department stores and supermarkets.

Retail sales at current prices edged up 0.1 percent year-on-year after a 1.9 percent gain in September. In August, sales fell 0.4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales dropped 0.4 percent month-on-month in October, same as in September.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew 0.5 percent yearly after a 1.7 percent gain in September. Compared to the previous month, sales fell 2.1 percent in October following a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month

Year-on-year, department store sales fell 3.6 percent, while sales at supermarkets and hypermarkets dropped 2.9 percent. Motor vehicles sales decreased 2 percent.

Sales at petrol service stations logged the biggest increase of 11.4 percent, followed by medical goods and toiletries with a 3.4 percent rise.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Mixed Ahead Of German CPI

At 2:00 am ET Thursday, Destatis will release German final inflation data for November.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro held steady against the yen and the franc, it rose against the pound and the greenback.

The euro was worth 1.1372 against the greenback, 129.00 against the yen, 1.1297 against the franc and 0.9009 against the pound as of 1:55 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Mixed Ahead Of German WPI

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Destatis will release German wholesale prices for November at 2:00 am ET Friday. Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While the euro fell against the greenback and the yen, it rose against the pound. Against the franc, it held steady.

The euro was worth 1.1348 against the greenback, 128.89 against the yen, 1.1290 against the franc and 0.9001 against the pound as of 1:55 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Turkey Jobless Rate At 19-month High

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Turkey's unemployment rate grew for a fifth straight month to its highest level in over one-and-a-half years, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday.

The jobless rate climbed to 11.4 percent from 11.1 percent in August. The latest figure was the highest since March 2017, when the rate was 11.7 percent.

The number of unemployed grew to 3.75 million persons from 3.67 million in the previous month. Employment fell to 29.01 million from 29.32 million.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 11.3 percent from 11.2 percent.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Franc Mixed Ahead Of SECO Economic Forecasts

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Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to publish its quarterly economic forecasts at 1:45 am ET Tuesday. Ahead of the data, the franc traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the franc held steady against the yen, it fell against the greenback and the pound. Against the euro, it rose.

The franc was worth 113.37 against the yen, 1.1268 against the euro, 1.2541 against the pound and 0.9933 against the greenback as of 1:40 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Little Changed After German PPI

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Following the release of German producer prices for November at 2:00 am ET Wednesday, the euro changed little against its major counterparts.

The euro was trading at 127.99 against the yen, 1.1299 against the franc, 0.8995 against the pound and 1.1385 against the greenback around 2:03 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Unemployment Rate Climbs To 5.1% In November

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The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.1 percent in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for 5.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the October reading.

The Australian economy added 37,000 jobs to 12,694,300 last month - blowing away expectations for an increase of 20,000 jobs following the gain of 32,800 in the previous month.

Full-time employment decreased 6,400 to 8,684,600 and part-time employment increased 43,400 to 4,009,600.

Unemployment increased 12,500 to 683,100. Male unemployment increased 11,500 persons and female unemployment increased 1,000 persons.

The participation rate was 65.7 percent, beating forecasts for 65.6 percent - which would have been unchanged from a month earlier.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 3.3 million hours to 1,759.5 million hours.

The monthly trend underemployment rate increased less than 0.1 pts to 8.4 percent.

The monthly trend underutilization rate remained steady at 13.5 percent. The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate increased 0.2 pts to 8.5 percent.

The monthly seasonally adjusted underutilization rate increased 0.2 pts to 13.6 percent.

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[John Mason]

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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand December Food Prices Rise Seasonally Adjusted 0.5%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/new-zealand/5.jpg

Food prices in New Zealand advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in December, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday.

Unadjusted, food prices were down 0.2 percent last month.

In December, fruit and vegetable prices fell 1.1 percent (down 0.6 percent after seasonal adjustment) on month; meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 0.2 percent; grocery food prices rose 0.1 percent (up 0.5 percent after seasonal adjustment); non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 2.6 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.2 percent.

On a yearly basis, food prices were up 1.0 percent in December.

In December, fruit and vegetable prices decreased 6.1 percent on year; meat, poultry, and fish prices increased 3.8 percent; grocery food prices increased 1.4 percent; non-alcoholic beverage prices decreased 0.2 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices increased 2.9 percent.

"Overall, getting your five-plus a day servings of fruit and vegetables was cheaper in 2018," consumer prices manager Geraldine Duoba said. "Bad weather in 2017 reduced the supply of many vegetables, pushing up their prices. Growing conditions were mostly more favorable during 2018, boosting supply and lowering prices."

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[IFX Gertrude]

Dutch Retail Sales Growth At 7-Month High

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Dutch retail sales grew the most in seven months during November, mainly driven by non-food sales, figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday.

Retail sales rose a working-day adjusted 4.1 percent year-on-year following a 3.3 percent increase in October.

The pace of growth was the fastest since April, when sales rose 5.8 percent.

Food sales rose 2.5 percent and non-food sales increased 3.8 percent, largely led by increased demand for consumer electronics, shoes and leather goods.

Online sales surged nearly 20 percent in November.

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[IFX Gertrude]

British authorities hold power, Nomura sells EUR / GBP

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There is a possibility that British Prime Minister Theresa May will resign within a few days after a devastating vote. Still, Nomura does not believe in tough Brexit, waiting for the stabilization of the political situation in the country and the growth rate of sterling. Thus, currency strategists explained the opening of a short position in EUR / GBP pair from 0.8880.

London representatives of the bank reported that the position of British Prime Minister Theresa May looks quite constructive. Her desire to lengthen the term of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and the intention to begin inter-party negotiations on the country's withdrawal from the group will most likely allow the British government to retain power.

If a vote of no confidence is announced to the government, the pound may drop by 3%.

The bank estimates that next week traders will focus on what Ms. May can offer as a backup plan.

Many political analysts believe that the British Prime Minister will once again "stand on his feet." May lost in the House of Commons, but "there is no immediate threat to her position." Theresa May will remain in power, as the Democratic Unionist Party and the Conservatives, who voted against her unpopular EU exit deal, will support her.

Note that Ms. May herself contacted, saying that the British government is already busy searching for an acceptable Brexit plan, which would receive the support of parliamentarians.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Oil reserves in the US for the week decreased by 0.6%, stronger than forecast

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/DimB8EyoDsDbi_XHg2-tm2TSfM3Tpm6fxajADV5tQsJ-Jdwm93eGtRfko7Rd8T1A1RSo3foZf8RpL65kxcPv7BCMcBsTS6 KVuA6mbyO26tIvILpB0WqE02N0q4tjavwX9svaYdgE

According to the Energy Information Administration of the Ministry of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the US (excluding strategic reserves) declined by 2.7 million barrels, or 0.6%, to 437.1 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in stocks of only 1.32 million barrels, to 438.38 million barrels.

Oil production in the United States increased by 200 thousand barrels up to 11.9 million barrels per day.

Oil reserves at the country's largest terminal in Cushing decreased by 0.8 million barrels to 41.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also showed an increase of 3% (+7.5 million barrels), to 255.6 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 2.1% (+3 million barrels), to 143 million barrels.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China's growth will slow in 2019 and threatens the financial world

China's economy is expected to continue to slow down this year particularly on domestic demand and exports affected by US tariffs. Beijing will most likely have to deploy additional incentive measures.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/EeuyHwQfkOSucJC9PSw5K7-72NcK07kT7GBed8mIA86VrkjroNKLvy56XttqG1svzpioLRIsU YPdSFJGjNXC8OGYyN9JVEh1Hwwk9ge6lJp7S3RoPHssvQVX8Vq 5IUFsGvLdnHHC

According to forecasts, China's economic growth will slow to 6.3 percent this year and will be the weakest in 29 years. A significant slowdown in growth in China has already been observed. The resumption of negotiations between the United States and China has increased optimism that Washington may agree to suspend the planned tariff increase, which was originally scheduled to take effect this month. However, a comprehensive agreement to end the dispute seems unlikely, given the number of highly controversial and politically sensitive issues. Even if both sides can conclude a long-term trade deal, it will provide only minor relief to the Chinese economy if Beijing cannot increase domestic investment and demand.

Sources said that China plans to lower its target for economic growth between 6 to 6.5 percent this year. Weak industrial growth and lower consumer spending reduce company profits. Moreover, it also discourages new investment and increases the risk of high job losses. Since earlier growth measures had little impact, we expect Beijing to deploy more incentives in the coming months to prevent a sharp slowdown. More large-scale tax cuts are expected, along with measures to increase consumer demand for products such as household appliances and cars. Both fiscal and monetary policies eased over the past few months and this should begin to spread to the real economy by the second half of this year.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/oCjTNK8Ju8uclFRIhOuBRdYUIQcC2Zol8uPbiHqtR50XhITtAH _I7Lamp277nuBmULttHNgoZPMI_4Rd6UfjbFoqTxEfcfrm_pF5 3hclJYFqrjSnA3bTC6gb_rhMjQ6oLC8nT8P3

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro may strengthen against the dollar to $ 1.22 - CIBC

China's economy is expected to continue to slow down this year particularly on domestic demand and exports affected by US tariffs. Beijing will most likely have to deploy additional incentive measures.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190121/analytics5c45cd375c707.jpg

Despite weak eurozone statistics, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) analysts remain bullish on the euro.

"Eurozone statistics for the third quarter turned out to be the weakest over the past four years, which apparently explains the uncertain behavior of the single European currency. It is assumed that external trade pressure, as well as political uncertainty in Italy and France, will continue, causing a further slowdown in the pace of recovery in eurozone GDP," representatives of the financial institution said.

"Meanwhile, the situation in the European labor market remains favorable, which ensures a high level of consumer spending, and hence GDP growth. In the third quarter, wages increased by a record value in almost 10 years. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell below 8% for the first time in the last decade," they added.

"Despite the fact that the balance of risks has probably shifted to the negative side, the ECB continues to consider the economic outlook for the eurozone to be rather positive, which will further allow the regulator to carry out, albeit careful, but still raising interest rates. It is possible that this will happen in the second half of the year against the backdrop of consistently high inflation expectations," the experts noted.

According to the CIBC forecast, by the end of this year, the euro against the dollar may rise to $ 1.22.

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[IFX Gertrude]

IMF lowers global growth forecasts, what to expect financial markets

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The International Monetary Fund has reduced its forecasts for global economic growth for 2019 and 2020 due to weakness in Europe and in some emerging markets, and said that trade tensions could destabilize the world economy even more. This is the second decline in three months. The lender also called a more serious than expected slowdown in the Chinese economy and the possible "problem" Brexit risks that could cause turbulence in financial markets. The IMF expects the growth of the world economy in 2019 to be 3.5 percent, and in 2020, 3.6 percent, which is lower by 0.2 and 0.1 percent, respectively, from forecasts in October last year.

"The trend of global growth is shifting downward. Escalating trade tensions beyond that already included in the forecast remains a key source of risk. Trade policy uncertainties and concerns about escalation and retaliation will lead to a decrease in industrial investment, disruption of supply chains and a slowdown in productivity growth. As a result, worsening corporate profitability prospects may affect financial market sentiment and further weaken economic growth," the IMF said in a statement.

The IMF said that growth in the eurozone will be moderate, falling from 1.8 percent in 2018 to 1.6 percent in 2019, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than predicted three months ago. The IMF also lowered its growth forecast in 2019 for developing countries to 4.5 percent, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous forecast and 4.7 percent in 2018. But it kept its growth forecasts for the USA, 2.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2020, indicating continued growth in domestic demand.

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[IFX Gertrude]

EUR/USD pair continues to drift south in anticipation of the ECB meeting

In anticipation of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held this Thursday, the euro will remain under pressure.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/nlR4evhQkwrs-GKlDqpuOIM1jDZyuIc8OHXh3tMcD2pxHR9WPWe_tSjOMY5PkP0 yN9U8EKZL4nF_hitURnHrrotIPk2bpQNOOzI6QxUh9_7GlXY4r iDvlf4DmJOfuGpEAuqoqids

Concerns about the slowdown in the global economy, expectations of the dovish sentiment of the ECB, as well as high demand for safe-haven assets, allowed the "bears" on EUR/USD to continue the attack.

For the second time in three months, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has worsened the forecast for global GDP growth over the next two years.

In particular, the assessment of the dynamics of Germany's GDP for 2019 was reduced from 1.9% to 1.3% and Italy from 1% to 0.6%. At the same time, the forecast for the US economy remained unchanged, which, apparently, played into the hands of the greenback.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD bulls are waiting for another test this week. On January 24, the ECB will hold its first meeting this year.

The main intrigue is how "dovish" will be the statements of its chairman, Mario Draghi, at a press conference on Thursday. This time, the ECB will most likely keep its key interest rate at the same level, whether the Finnish Institute refuses to raise the rate in 2019 or even announce the pumping of the banking system with liquidity is not yet clear.

If the comments of the ECB management on the results of the next meeting will have cautious optimism, sales of the euro in anticipation of an important event may turn into purchases based on facts.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Bank of Japan will continue large-scale incentives

In anticipation of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held this Thursday, the euro will remain under pressure.

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The Bank of Japan has reduced its inflation forecasts and retained a large-scale incentive program amid growing risks for the economy in the form of trade protectionism and weakening global demand. The trade war between the United States and China, Japan's largest trading partners, is increasing pressure on the third largest economy in the world and undermining politicians' many years of efforts to promote sustainable growth.

As expected, the Bank of Japan has cut its inflation forecasts, reinforcing the view that it will have to continue unprecedented economic support for some time. The regulator noted that despite growing risks such as trade disputes and Brexit, Japan's economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace. However, a recent survey of economists has shown that external factors have increased Japan's chances for a downturn in the fiscal year starting in April, making it harder for the Bank of Japan to achieve a 2 percent inflation target.

The Bank of Japan confirmed its intention to continue buying Japanese government bonds and left the short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1 percent. Many economists believe that the next step of the Bank of Japan will be the normalization of policy. Most expect it to happen in 2020 or later.

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[IFX Gertrude]

S & P: The US economy has lost at least $ 6 billion due to the shutter

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Analysts at rating agency Standard & Poor's estimate that the US economy lost at least $ 6 billion during the suspension of government work.

S & P Global Rating experts believe that as a result of the shutdown, the US budget lost $ 1.2 billion a week since the suspension of government departments led to a decrease in productivity and a low level of business economic activity.

The shutdown was caused by the reluctance of the US Congress to allocate $ 5.7 billion for primary funding for the construction of a wall between Mexico and the US, while negative consequences, according to S & P experts, have already exceeded the amount requested by President Donald Trump.

Analysts also noted that, despite the resumption of government agencies, the negative effect of the shutdown is likely to affect financial markets and business confidence in the future of the country's economy.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China's manufacturing sector alarms currency markets

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China's manufacturing sector activity in January was likely to shrink for the second month in a row, heightening concerns about the risks associated with a slowdown in China and a threat to the global economy.

Industrial leader Caterpillar has become another major international company that warned of declining demand in China, followed by chip makers and Apple. According to the average forecast of 33 economists, the official index of purchasing managers in China (PMI) in January will drop to 49.3 points from 49.4 points in December. January figures may be the weakest since February 2016. In addition, in front of the big New Year holidays and many businesses just close. Some are closing even earlier than usual, because the protracted trade war with the United States has a negative effect on orders. If Washington and Beijing do not reach a compromise that will ease the pressure on tariffs, many businesses are likely to close down forever.

In any case, weak PMI data increases the likelihood that Beijing can accelerate and intensify policy mitigation and stimulation efforts this year. Nevertheless, there remains a high probability that in the coming months business conditions in China may deteriorate, growth may fall below 6 percent in the first half of the year from 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and stabilize only at the end of the year. This is confirmed by sources in the government, who report that the authorities are planning to reduce the growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year from 6.5 percent in 2018.

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[IFX Gertrude]

The pound will continue to try to gain a foothold, and the dollar is waiting for the Fed report

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190130/analytics5c51bc8ac9db1.jpg

The pound will continue to attempt to strengthen its position after fears of the "problematic" Brexit have declined, and the dollar will weaken on the eve of the Fed meeting.

Last week, the pound reached $ 1.3218, the highest since mid-October, in the hope that London will be able to make a deal with the EU. The deadline set for Brexit, March 29, is likely to be extended, and the main question for the pound is when and how the renewal decision will be made. As for the dollar, the focus is now shifting back to key events that threaten the dollar with more serious consequences, such as the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, US-China trade negotiations, and the US jobs report. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

Markets are waiting for signals about the future of the Fed's policy after recent official comments made it clear that rates of rate hikes this year will be reduced amid growing uncertainty about the state of the US economy, the global economy and fragile financial markets. Experts estimate the likelihood of a rate hike in 2019 as very low, although some still expect two approaches in the second and fourth quarters. The dollar may face pressure if the Fed decides to highlight the negative effects of the closure of the US government in its report.

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[IFX Gertrude]

The dollar clings to any opportunity for growth, like its Australian colleague

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/bqWiKG13Z_VZGGJh2VlrGqXDPAjglRUYcT5VEytN9cqBCPc3X9 sp8C6rJuRWveDBG8Vq7nfjSfHPwbyWA-x4dUQApliXNPN2YNdFMjVV3eAmk0hJ4QSfpafPeWEs6xIBhuSH uuTI

The dollar continued to increase on the eve of the speech of US President Donald Trump, which, according to investors, may indicate progress in trade negotiations between the US and China. In general, a modest recovery in investor risk appetite led to a sharp rise in US government bond yields, but trading in foreign exchange markets was rather weak, as many Asian markets were closed for the New Year holidays. The Australian dollar gained by recovering its recent losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates at a record low.

Now all the attention is focused on the appeal of Trump, which was postponed due to the closure of the US government. Markets do not rule out more optimistic comments on US trade policy, after the closure of the Trump government is likely to seek political victories. This should be positive for the current risk-friendly environment (reliable US data, but cautious by the Fed) and can support the currencies of developing countries against the dollar.

The Aussie strengthened by 0.3 percent, to $0.7247. The currency was trading in negative territory for most of the session, after weak retail sales data in December, but it moved up after the RBA kept rates on hold. It will be difficult for the Australian dollar to overcome the dollar mark of 0.7300, given the outlook for market rates, which are still priced with a high probability of weakening this year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Bank of England downgraded forecasts for economic growth due to Brexit

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/vtn9e3YftFJFAYE8duzAlzrcRZaWRI58iJX_4FONhspld8epVd GVuim4OFZBwxsVATFXr1d5OnFmf8E-P02jmcShRWcCNsJ8RIfrgQdiMnzB8Wa1r37dH94akmMzvkFWV5 nHQ0Zw

The management of the Bank of England at a meeting on Thursday, February 7, unanimously voted to keep the key rate at 0.75. Regulatory officials said the UK economy slowed down late last year and early this year.

Representatives of the Bank of England said that the country's economy in 2019 could show the slowest GDP growth in 10 years due to the uncertainty around Brexit, as well as a slowdown in global growth.

At the same time, representatives of the regulator said that they would return to raising interest rates in the event of the implementation of a soft scenario of a country's exit from the EU.

In addition, the Bank of England downgraded the growth forecast for the country's economy in 2019 from 1.7% to 1.2%. The growth forecast for 2020 was also lowered - from 1.7% to 1.5%.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Oil trades in different directions on conflicting factors

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/GFRI-oV4o2hRGcpoEyZYXnIPX_JgyeIqb8ST7cz6tmyXSRTgvjpv0W5 OC7HBy4l5CtAuERLuiI4eGh-jZ0fmOSNAhW_XHClFD_bdtsLIeDnypqwVoZnJwx5AxOa7TQ7Nh eAA8QUi

The price of Brent crude is showing mixed trends at the beginning of a new trading week. Quotes of the asset vary over a wide range of $61.30-62.30 per barrel. Market participants regain data on the growth in the number of drilling rigs in the United States and follow the news on trade negotiations between the United States and China.

Markets are awaiting the outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, the next round of which is scheduled for February 14-15. Doubts that trade disputes will finally be resolved put pressure on the course of oil. An additional negative came from the report of oil and gas service company Baker Hughes, which reflected an increase in the number of active drilling rigs by 7– to 854 units.

At the same time, oil received some support following the words of OPEC President and the Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Suhail Al-Mazrui that the oil market will be balanced in the first quarter of this year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Holds Official Cash Rate Steady At 1.75%

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday kept its Official Cash Rate at the record low of 1.75 percent for the 15th straight meeting.

The decision was in line with expectations following a 0.25 percent rate cut in November 2016.

The central bank has pared a collective 0.50 percent from its benchmark in the last 25 months, lowering the rate in six of the last 22 meetings after six straight sessions with no change.

GDP growth is expected to pick up through 2019 and the OCR is expected to be unchanged through this year and into 2020, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted.

"Trading-partner growth is expected to further moderate in 2019 and global commodity prices have already softened, reducing the tailwind that New Zealand economic activity has benefited from," Orr said. "The risk of a sharper downturn in trading-partner growth has also heightened over recent months."

Core consumer prices are expected to gradually rise to the mid-point of the central bank's target range at 2 percent - although inflation could rise faster if cost increases are passed on.

"There are upside and downside risks to this outlook," Orr said. "A more pronounced global downturn could weigh on domestic demand, but inflation could rise faster if firms pass on cost increases to prices to a greater extent."

He added that the direction of the next move could be up or down.

"We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximizing sustainable employment and maintaining low and stable inflation," Orr said.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Rises Following German GDP Data

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Destatis has published German preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter and wholesale price index for January at 2:00 am ET Thursday.

After these data, the euro rose against its major rivals.

The euro was trading at 125.39 against the yen, 1.1381 against the franc, 1.1294 against the greenback and 0.8768 against the pound around 2:01 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China CPI Slows To 1.7% On Year In January

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Consumer prices in China were up 1.7 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.9 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.5 percent following the flat reading in December.

Producer prices were up 0.1 percent on year, shy of expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent and down from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

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[IFX Gertrude]

U.S. Dollar Falls On Trade Talk Hopes

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The U.S. dollar depreciated against its most major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday, as investors awaited trade talks between the U.S. and China beginning this week, after making some progress in talks held last week.

A statement from the White House said high level U.S.-China trade talks this week led to "progress between the two parties", but noted "much work remains."

Trump said that the meetings were very productive and he is ready to extend the March 1 deadline and hold off a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are due on Wednesday, with investors awaiting more clues on its rate hike path for this year.

The greenback declined to a 5-day low of 1.2920 against the pound, down from a 5-day high of 1.2899 hit at 5:45 pm ET. The greenback is seen finding support around the 1.32 level.

The greenback slipped to a weekly low of 1.0029 against the franc, following a high of 1.0055 seen at 5:15 pm ET. The next likely support for the greenback is seen around the 0.99 level.

Pulling away from an early high of 1.1289 against the euro, the greenback fell to a 5-day low of 1.1325. On the downside, 1.15 is possibly seen as the next support level for the greenback.

The greenback dropped to a 5-day low of 1.3225 against the loonie, near 2-week lows of 0.6893 against the kiwi and 0.7159 against the aussie, from its early highs of 1.3255, 0.6855 and 0.7133, respectively. The greenback is poised to challenge support around 1.29 against the loonie, 0.70 against the kiwi and 0.74 against the aussie.

On the flip side, the greenback held steady against the yen, after having advanced to 110.58 at 6:55 pm ET. The pair was valued at 110.46 at Friday's close.

Data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan core machine orders fell 0.1 percent on month in December - beating expectations for a decline of 1.0 percent following the flat reading in November.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders were up 0.9 percent - shy of forecasts for an increase of 3.4 percent following the 0.8 percent increase in the previous month.

The U.S. markets remain closed for Presidents Day holiday.

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[IFX Gertrude]

EUR/USD: real weakness of the greenback or vain hopes for progress in the negotiations?

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/xWA-XXu_89aIORLQLvudcRXkf9Qod2-1R2DjIrHH_j2FCfviAHSSKtehyTpi2ym4FJpdH-ov1WWJw64OHL4AMCLBSBVrsnbtuml2viTcRsvDJceK2J3fKIIr XzpZl_d0yZv_NzG9

In recent weeks, the greenback has shown quite an impressive rally. However, an ambiguous statistical data from the United States, and then positive news about the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, then forced it to switch to defense mode against most of the currencies from the G10.

Against the background of improving global risk appetite, the EUR/USD pair fell to the bottom of the level of 1.1250, recovered above the level of 1.1300 and today is trying to gain a foothold above this mark.

Last week, the dollar received the main blow from the internal statistics, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast values. In particular, in December, retail sales in the United States declined at the fastest rate in almost a decade, which has led to renewed talk about preparing for a slowdown in the US economy and the best times for the greenback are over.

It is assumed that this week a weak report on retail sales will continue to put pressure on the dollar, especially since the minutes of the Fed's January meeting, which will be published this Wednesday, are likely to confirm the regulator's intention to maintain a wait-and-see position in March.

At the same time, the main negative factor for the single European currency is the fact that the ECB and the European Commission have recently revised downward forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the region, which in turn postpones the ECB interest rate hike to a later date. In addition, there is still tension on the political scene: the UK's uncontrolled exit from the EU is still on the agenda. Investors are not optimistic about the possibility of introducing trade duties on European cars from the United States.

Currently, positive market expectations regarding the course of trade negotiations between the US and China are the main factor supporting the euro.

Last Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced significant progress in this direction.

It should be noted that previously something similar could already be observed. One can only hope that the White House's comments on the "good pace" of the talks (which, by the way, only two weeks are left) are a sign of a real breakthrough, not false promises.

Thus, to some extent, the further growth of the EUR/USD pair will depend on whether the parties enter into a trade agreement or the United States will extend the deadline for signing it.

However, according to experts, the "bulls" on the euro are not particularly counting on anything, since only a breakthrough above the mark of 1.15 will be a sign of upward dynamics.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Wage Prices Gain 0.5% On Quarter In Q4

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Wage prices in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.6 percent, which would have been unchanged.

On a yearly basis, wage prices advanced 2.3 percent - unchanged and matching forecasts.

Private sector wages were up 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.3 percent on year, while public sector wages rose 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.5 percent on year.

The highest index rise at an industry level was in financial and insurance services (0.9 percent) and the lowest in accommodation and food services (0.1 percent).

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 5.0% In January

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The jobless rate in Australia was a seasonally adjusted 5.0 percent in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - unchanged and in line with expectations.

The Australian economy added 31,900 jobs last month - blowing away forecasts for an increase of 15,000 jobs following the gain of 16,900 jobs in December.

Full-time employed persons increased 65,400 to 8,743,100 and part-time employed persons decreased 26,300 to 4,008,700.

Unemployed persons increased 6,600 to 673,500.

The seasonally adjusted underemployment rate fell 0.2 pts to 8.1 percent, while the monthly underutilization rate fell 0.1 pts to 13.2 percent.

The participation rate was 65.7 percent, exceeding expectations for 65.6 percent - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.6 million hours to 1766.4 million hours.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Mixed Ahead Of German GDP Data

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At 2:00 am ET Friday, Destatis will release German final GDP data for the fourth quarter. Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro rose against the greenback and the yen, it held steady against the franc and the pound.

The euro was worth 125.64 against the yen, 1.1351 against the franc, 0.8698 against the pound and 1.1341 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

EUR / USD: Greenback's remarkable resilience and euro's ghostly hopes for growth

1639

Against the backdrop of expectations on the possible occurrence of a three -year cycle tightening the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) and its nearing completion, traders began to rely on the weakening of the US currency by the end of last year. However, after the decline in December-January, the greenback was able to get managed in February not only to restore the lost positions, but also to strengthen by almost 1%.

This year, the stability of the dollar came as a surprise to many. However, it is hardly surprising, given the fact that the same factors that limit the Fed in actions (slowing global growth and tightening financial conditions), force other central banks to take a more cautious position, "BlackRock representatives said.

"It is possible that in the future the market will have to adapt not only to mitigate the Fed's policy, but also to show a more" dovish "attitude of the ECB. It is assumed that in the coming months, the difference in interest rates in Europe and the United States will play in favor of the greenback, "noted JP Morgan Asset Management experts.

"Despite the easing of the Fed's rhetoric, the single European currency finally lost its appeal, as well as, the support of those drivers who provided the upward momentum of EUR / USD in 2016-2018. We expect a shift in trade from the range of 1.12-1.15 to 1.10-1.14, "analysts at Barclays said.

"The euro against the dollar stuck in the area of 1.12-1.16. We believe that cyclical factors will support the demand for the American currency in the near future, "said strategists at Danske Bank.

According to the experts, in the event of a settlement of trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, it will be possible to count on accelerating US economic growth, which is why the Fed will return to a tighter monetary policy to support the greenback.

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[IFX Gertrude]

The dollar could be preparing for a new rally

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Following the active growth observed in mid-February, the US currency came under pressure against the background of a softening of the Fed's rhetoric and positive expectations about making progress in the United States and China trade negotiations.

Does this mean that the strengthening of the greenback, which began in February last year, is nearing completion?

Investors expect the Federal Reserve to refrain from hiking interest rates in the current year, and are inclined to believe that the next step for the regulator may be to reduce the cost of borrowing, at least this is indicated by the futures quotations for the federal financing rate.

Meanwhile, the minutes of the last meeting of the US central bank show that it may not be such a "dove" as the markets believe. In any case, the prevailing views among FOMC members proceed from the fact that the regulator may have not yet completed the rate hiking process, but simply paused it.

In particular, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, believes that the Fed may raise the federal funds rate by 0.25% this year and by the same amount next year.

As for the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, the transaction may not take place at all, which will be one of the drivers for strengthening the greenback.

Here we should also add America's trade war against Europe, as well as the growing US public debt. In addition, one should not forget about the securities market, which may be on the "bearish" territory after the longest "bullish" cycle in history, which will again push global investors to US government bonds and the dollar.

Thus, based on the above, most likely, we should expect the next USD rally, within which the highest levels of November-February (around the mark of 97.50) will be tested.

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[IFX Gertrude]

China Manufacturing PMI Slides To 49.2 In February

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The manufacturing sector in China continued to contract in February, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed on Thursday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.2.

That missed expectations for a score of 49.5, which would have been unchanged from the previous month. It also moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The bureau also said that its non-manufacturing PMI came in with a score of 54.3 in February - again shy of expectations for 54.5 and down from 54.7 in the previous month.

The composite index posted a score of 52.4, down from 53.2 a month earlier.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Philippines Manufacturing Sector Slows In February - Nikkei

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The manufacturing sector in the Philippines continued to expand in February, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.9.

That's down from 52.3 in January, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, new order growth was at its weakest in seven months but export orders rose for the first time since August.

Output and employment both increased at manufacturers, although stocks of finished goods fell for the first time in eight months during February.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia January Building Approvals Advance 2.5%

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The total number of building approvals consented in Australia climbed a seasonally adjusted 2.5 percent on month in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - standing at 14,395.

That exceeded expectations for a gain of 1.5 percent following the 8.4 percent slide in December.

On a yearly basis, approvals plummeted 28.6 percent - which actually beat forecasts for a fall of 28.9 percent following the 22.5 percent drop in the previous month.

The number of consents issued for private sector houses was up 2.1 percent on month and down 6.6 percent on year at 9,423. The number of private sector dwellings excluding houses was up 2.7 percent on month and down 51.0 percent on year at 4,800.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 1.3 percent in January. The value of residential building fell 2.0 percent, while the value of non-residential building rose 6.4 percent.

Also on Monday, the ABS said that company operating profits in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018.

That was well shy of expectations for a gain of 3.0 percent following the 1.9 percent increase in the three months prior. They were up 10.5 percent on year. Inventories fell 0.2 percent on quarter, missing forecasts for a gain of 0.3 percent following the 0.1 percent drop in Q3. They were up 1.0 percent on year. Wages and salaries were up 0.8 percent on quarter and 4.1 percent on year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Has A$7.2 Billion Current Account Deficit In Q4

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Australia had a seasonally adjusted current account deficit of A$7.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for a shortfall of A$9.1 billion following the A$10.7 billion deficit in the three months prior.

The surplus on goods and services fell A$781 million from A$2.022 billion in the third quarter to A$1.241 billion in the fourth quarter.

Net exports of gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent versus expectations for a fall of 0.1 percent following the 0.4 percent gain in Q3.

Australia's net IIP liability position was A$975.7 billion at 31 December 2018, an increase of A$36.5 billion on the revised 30 September 2018 position of A$939.1 billion.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Q4 GDP Advances 0.2% On Quarter

1643

Australia's gross domestic product added a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent following the 0.3 percent gain in the three months prior.

On an annualized basis, GSP was up 2.3 percent - again missing forecasts for 2.6 percent and down from 2.8 percent in the previous quarter.

"Growth in the economy was subdued, reflecting soft household spending and a decline in dwelling investment," ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said. "The approvals for dwelling construction indicate that the decline in dwelling investment will continue."

Household spending grew 0.4 percent, reflecting a continuation of modest spending in recent quarters. Investment in dwellings fell 3.4 percent.

Falls in private investment dampened growth in the quarter. This was consistent with the decline in construction industry value added, falling 1.9 percent. Services industries supporting construction activity detracted from growth with professional scientific and technical services industry value added declining for the first time in three years.

Mining investment fell in the quarter as significant projects transitioned from the construction to the production phase. This is reflected in oil and gas production, which grew 7.7 percent.

Public demand sustained growth in the quarter. Public investment remained at high levels with State and Local government growth of 6.3 per cent reflecting continued work on a number of large infrastructure projects.

Government final consumption expenditure grew 1.8 percent, with ongoing expenditure in health, aged care and disability services. This investment translates to ongoing strength from the healthcare industry, which remains the largest contributor to economic growth.

Terms of trade rose 3.1 percent.

"As the economy transitions out of the mining boom, investment has remained strong with major public works driving growth around Australia," Hockman said.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia January Trade Surplus A$4.549 Billion

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Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$4.549 billion in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for a surplus of A$2.90 billion and was up A$780 million from the upwardly revised A$3.769 billion surplus in December (originally A$3.681 billion).

Exports were up 5.0 percent on month or A$1.901 billion to A$39.937 billion in January from A$38.036 billion in the previous month.

Non-monetary gold rose A$1.373 billion, while non-rural goods rose A$396 million (2 percent) and rural goods rose A$97 million (2 percent).

Net exports of goods under merchanting fell A$12 million (33 percent) and services credits rose A$46 million (1 percent).

Imports picked up 3.0 percent or A$1.121 billion to A$35.388 billion from A$34.267 billion a month earlier.

Capital goods rose A$737 million (12 percent), while consumption goods rose A$483 million (6 percent) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose A$157 million (1 percent).

Non-monetary gold fell $65 million (13 percent) and services debits fell A$191 million (2 percent).

Also on Thursday: .

The ABS said that the total value of retail sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on month in January, coming in at A$27.018 billion. That was shy of expectations for a gain of 0.3 percent following the 0.4 percent decline in December.

Individually, there were gains in food retailing (0.3 percent), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.2 percent), and clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing (0.1 percent). Other retailing (0.0 percent) was relatively unchanged, while household goods retailing (-0.2 percent), and department stores (-0.4 percent) fell in January. .

The construction sector in Australia continued to contract in February, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group revealed on Thursday with a Performance of Construction Index score of 43.8.

That's up from 43.1 in January, although it remains well beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

In all, the sector has been in contraction for six straight months.

Individually, activity, employment, new orders, supplier deliveries and selling prices were all firmly in contraction. Input prices and average wages continued to expand, although at a slower rate.

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[IFX Gertrude]

ECB maintains super-soft monetary policy

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The European Central Bank (ECB) has postponed the interest rate hike for an indefinite period, which means that the slowdown in economic growth in the eurozone has surpassed the calculations of experts.

According to the ECB, the interest rate will remain unchanged until the end of 2019, the previous forecast assumed it would maintain the current rate until September 2019. Since March 2016, the ECB's key refinancing rate is zero.

The ECB's previous forecast assumed an interest rate increase at any time from September 2019. However, after the publication of the economic indicators of Germany and Italy for the fourth quarter of 2018 and weak results at the beginning of the current year, tightening monetary policy seems to be a premature measure.

The problem is that the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi is trying to complete the program of ultra-soft monetary policy, which for the last ten years has supported the project of the single European currency. On the other hand, the European regulator needs to take measures to resume the region's slowing economic growth.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan M2 Money Stock Climbs 2.4% On Year In February

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The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.4 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Monday - coming in at 1,010.1 trillion yen.

That was in line with expectations and up from the downwardly revised 2.3 percent in January (originally 2.4 percent).

The M3 money stock was up an annual 2.1 percent for the fourth straight month, matching expectations at 1,343.1 trillion yen.

The L money stock was up 2.1 percent on year at 1,789.5 trillion yen, accelerating from the 1.9 percent gain in the previous month.

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[IFX Gertrude]

What is waiting for the dollar this week, and what data should be considered carefully

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This week, the dollar started, almost came close to a three-month high, as investors continued to give preference to the greenback amid fears of global growth. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies grew by 0.1 percent, to 97.412 points, just this year the figure rose 1.3 percent. There is no good news for the euro. Last week, the euro currency fell to its weakest level since June 2017, after officials at the European Central Bank changed their hawkish tone to dovish. After the bank significantly reduced its forecast for growth in the eurozone, and also because of weaker-than-expected Chinese export and import data, concerns about the weakness of the global economy are resuming. This instantly puts pressure on the euro and other currencies, except the dollar, which is relatively strong as long as the US economy maintains its pace.

However, there are also alarming signals: employment growth almost stopped in February, as the world's largest economy created only 20,000 jobs, which is much less than what analysts expected. But traders also found positive news, the employment rate in the US fell below 4 percent, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.4 percent, which will help reduce the dollar's loss.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan January Core Machine Orders Plunge 5.4%

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The total value of core machine orders in Japan dropped a seasonally adjusted 5.4 percent in January, the Cabinet Office said on Wednesday - coming in at 822.3 billion yen.

That missed expectations for a decline of 1.5 percent following the downwardly revised 0.3 percent fall in December (originally -0.1 percent).

On a yearly basis, core machine orders sank 2.9 percent - again shy of expectations for a fall of 2.1 percent following the 0.9 percent gain in the previous month.

Manufacturing orders fell 1.9 percent on month and 7.5 percent on year, while non-manufacturing orders tumbled 8.0 percent on month and added 1.0 percent on year.

Government orders rose 2.7 percent on month and 6.2 percent on year, while orders from overseas plummeted 18.1 percent on month and 22.7 percent on year and orders through agencies fell 1.3 percent on month and gained 6.5 percent on year.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan tumbled 7.9 percent on month.

Also on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan said that producer prices in Japan were up 0.2 percent on month in February. That exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.1 percent following the 0.6 percent decline in January.

On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 0.8 percent - again exceeding expectations for a gain of 0.7 percent and up from 0.6 percent in the previous month.

Export prices were up 0.6 percent on month and down 1.7 percent on year in February, the bank said, while import prices gained 1.1 percent on month and fell 0.7 percent on year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

When is May's resignation and what is the Bank of England's opinion?

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The pound continues to be the most dynamic asset of the foreign exchange market. Moreover, now traders are preparing for the growth of currency fluctuations before the next stages of Brexit. So, it is unlikely that anyone expected the British MPs to support Theresa May's deal on Tuesday. Today, few expect that the Parliament will decide to leave the European Union without a deal. The third round of voting is still on Thursday. The question of whether to extend Article 50 will be considered, and it seems very likely that there is no alternative to this solution.

It is peculiar what the MPs expect after postponing the deadline for the exit. European officials have clearly expressed their position: there will be no more concessions - neither on the Irish back-stop, nor on any other issues. Many hope that, faced with such a defeat, England will reject the idea of withdrawing from the union or hold a repeated referendum.

By the way, Theresa May even created the prerequisites for this. Here's how she commented on the disastrous vote on Tuesday:

"The European Union will want to know why we want to postpone the deadline. The House will have to answer this question: do we want to suspend the operation of Article 50, to hold a second referendum, or to conclude a deal different from the current one".

Despite May's next fiasco, ther sterling was able to stay afloat and did not sink to the bottom. After a short fall, it remained above $1.30. It seems that market participants expect to get more time, even if it has to prepare an exit without a deal.

However, the question regarding the British prime minister's ability to provide for the country's exit conditions, under which it will retain access to the single European market and customs union, is again a big question. Therefore, in the coming days, the general political uncertainty may be aggravated by the possibility, but real, resignation of Theresa May. In this regard, investors will look to selling the GBPUSD pair.

Bank of England Position

The Bank of England ordered financial companies to accumulate excess liquidity and launched a mechanism for mutual exchange of currencies to provide access to foreign currency if the need arises. A very prudent step, and precisely for this reason, members of a committee of the Bank of England made it clear that they could vote for lower rates if the country exited the EU without a deal. Thus, they intend to give the economy an opportunity to cope with the crisis.

The official position of the central bank is that the rates can not only decrease, but also rise with the rigid performance of Brexit. However, a more likely scenario, according to Mark Carney, would be a decline. He also warned that a "hard divorce" with the EU would have a strong inflationary impact due to the potential collapse of the sterling.

Artificial Intelligence Opinion
Investors are now hoping and betting quotes for the pound, a scenario of prolongation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, while they underestimate the risk of a "hard" Brexit. According to forecasts of a hedge fund created by former JPMorgan traders and using artificial intelligence, the pound is waiting for a deep fall due to an exit without a deal. According to the base scenario of traders, the sterling will first collapse and then begin to recover.

Britain will withdraw from the EU without a "default" deal, since "neither side will be able to agree on something," the fund representatives wrote.

"The longer the government postpones its decision, the more hope for the possibility of holding another referendum will increase among market players, reinforcing the view that Brexit can be canceled," the forecast also says.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia House Price Index Sinks 2.4% In Q4

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House prices in Australia were down 2.4 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - coming in at A$6.677 trillion.

That missed expectations for a fall of 2.0 percent following the 1.5 percent decline in the three months prior.

The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Sydney (-3.7 percent), Melbourne (-2.4 percent), Brisbane (-1.1 percent), Perth (-1.0 percent), Canberra (-0.2 percent) and Darwin (-0.6 percent) and rose in Hobart (+0.7 percent) and Adelaide (+0.1 percent) on a quarterly basis.

On a yearly basis, house prices sank 5.1 percent - again missing forecasts for a drop of 5.0 percent following the 1.9 percent contraction in the previous three months.

Annually, residential property prices fell in Sydney (-7.8 percent), Melbourne (-6.4 percent), Darwin (-3.5 percent), Perth (-2.5 percent) and Brisbane (-0.3 percent) and rose in Hobart (+9.6 percent), Canberra (+1.8 percent) and Adelaide (+1.5 percent).

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Mixed Ahead Of German PPI

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Destatis will release German producer prices for February at 3:00 am ET Wednesday.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro held steady against the greenback and the yen, it rose against the pound. Against the franc, it fell.

The euro was worth 126.61 against the yen, 1.1342 against the franc, 0.8560 against the pound and 1.1347 against the greenback as of 2:55 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Jobless Rate Sinks To 4.9% In February

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The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.9 percent in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - beneath expectations for 5.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the January reading.

The Australian economy added 4,600 jobs in February, shy of forecasts for the addition of 15,000 jobs following the gain of 38,300 jobs in the previous month.

The participation rate was 65.6 percent, below expectations for 65.7 - which would have been unchanged from a month prior.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Manufacturing PMI Unchanged At 48.9 In March - Nikkei

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The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract at a steady pace, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 48.9.

That's unchanged from the February reading and it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, there were further production cutbacks amid weaker new order inflows, while business confidence remained below the long-term average.

"Further struggles for Japanese manufacturers were apparent at the end of Q1, with latest flash PMI data showing a sustained downturn. Slack demand from domestic and international markets prompted the sharpest cutback in output volumes for almost three years," said IHS Economist Joe Hayes.

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[IFX Gertrude]

The yen got wings, next stop $ 108.5

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The fall of the yield curve below zero for the first time since 2007 stirred up the financial markets. The indicator, showing the difference between 10 and 3-year treasuries, is a reliable harbinger of a recession with a time lag of 12-18 months. Its inversion pushed players to active sales of shares. The losses of the S & P 500 amounted to 1.5%, and two new topics appeared on the market, fueling traders' interest in protective assets, such as the yen.

The sharp change in the rate of the Federal Reserve at the beginning of the year contributed to the rapid rally of US stock indices. The stock market prepared to close the quarter with the best result in nearly 30 years. However, it looks unnatural when macroeconomic statistics deteriorate and stocks rise. The growth of the US economy in the first quarter, will slowdown to less than 1% according to estimates of the leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed. hus, Morgan Stanley suspects that October-December GDP may be adjusted from 2.6% to 1.8% in quarterly terms. Divergence between economic reports and stock indicators cannot last forever.

The situation is similar throughout the world. Thus, the index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector of China, Japan, and the eurozone is below the critical level - 50, which indicates a slowdown in global GDP growth. Meanwhile, European stocks are ahead of their American counterparts, and the global MSCI is increasing. The naked eye can see that the market is overheated, which means it's time to pay attention to the safe haven assets. A 1.5% increase in the Japanese yen last week is a further evidence of this.

The national currency of Japan was under the "press" for quite some time. Its growth was hindered by such factors as high risk appetite, low rates of the world debt market and volatility. Inversion of the US yield curve provoked carry-traders to close positions, increased demand for funding currencies, and also caused the USDJPY rate to depreciate.

Among the most obvious fears of the market is the excessively "soft" position of the Fed. There was a too sharp change of tone. In December, the regulator allowed three series of rate increases, and now it does not plan any policy tightening. Perhaps, officials of the regulator do not agree on something, for example, a speedy recession. That is why the yield curve and went into the red zone.

Safe haven assets, as well as the yen, will be supported by the growing risks of the subsequent correction of the S & P 500 and increased volatility. The situation is heightened by rumors about Theresa May's resignation and the possible escalation of trade conflicts. Thus, the USDJPY pair may well move to the level of $ 108.5.

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[IFX Gertrude]

New Zealand Keeps Official Cash Rate Unchanged At 1.75%

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday kept its Official Cash Rate at the record low of 1.75 percent for the 16th straight meeting.

The decision was in line with expectations following a 0.25 percent rate cut in November 2016.

The central bank has pared a collective 0.50 percent from its benchmark in the last 25 months, lowering the rate in six of the last 22 meetings after six straight sessions with no change.

Given the weaker global economic outlook and reduced momentum in domestic spending, the likely direction of the next OCR move is down, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted.

Employment is near its maximum sustainable level, the bank said. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 percent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy.

The global economic outlook has continued to weaken, in particular key trading partners including Australia, Europe, and China. This weaker outlook has prompted central banks to ease their expected monetary policy stances, placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

Domestic growth slowed in 2018, with softness in the housing market and weak business investment contributing.

"We expect ongoing low interest rates, and increased government spending and investment, to support economic growth over 2019. Low interest rates, and continued employment growth, should support household spending and business investment. Government spending on infrastructure, housing, and transfer payments also supports domestic demand," Orr said.

As capacity pressures build, consumer price inflation is expected to rise to around the mid-point of our target range at 2 percent.

The balance of risks to this outlook has shifted to the downside, the bank said. The risk of a more pronounced global downturn has increased and low business sentiment continues to weigh on domestic spending. On the upside, inflation could rise faster if firms pass on cost increases to prices to a greater extent.

"We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximizing sustainable employment and maintaining low and stable inflation," Orr said.

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[IFX Gertrude]

May will leave in exchange for support of her Brexit proposal

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-1vn6eims9SHlE942Y5-1boLo2sbyGl_LkRH_okAqvfaaR-hvseo4aOo35tzy687CxCwnYVruf3LNhsKOf96K17u0XPrLeXrB bPRXnzboqZ3LwxwQzXF5kXe_yuXAfPiMoeXaBZC

The British Parliament, taking control of the Brexit process, hopes to find a way out of the impasse. On Wednesday, lawmakers will explore alternatives to the prime mnister's project through a series of so-called "demonstrative" votes. The Theresa May Agreement is still a promising option. In addition, there were rumors that she would leave her position as prime minister in exchange for support of her Brexit proposal.

Voting will begin at 19:00, the results are expected by 21:00 London time. It is possible that the ministers will need more time to choose an option they prefer. In this case, the meeting will continue on Monday. Voting may not provide the result that MPs are counting on, but the fact that they have united and challenged the government is already a huge breakthrough.

Meanwhile, the pound, which won back losses against the background of traders' belief in a positive outcome of Brexit, is waiting for the results of a new vote.

Here is what leading strategists wrote:
Credit Agricole CIB
"Despite the fact that political uncertainty is likely to continue, our long-term view remains constructive - the pound will rise to $1.39 by September."
Newton Asset Management
"There is a possibility that MPs will not come to any of the final options, which will further confuse the situation."

European Council President Donald Tusk, who spoke on Wednesday at the European Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg, said that the British should retain the right to revise Brexit plans and be given the time to do so, that is, agree to a lengthy delay. This means that the UK will participate in European elections.

Results that may follow a series of votes:
Theresa May's proposal that already failed twice will unlikely be passed. Nevertheless, some who oppose the prime minister's unpopular deal and supporters of the "hard" scenario, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, said that they could change their mind and vote in favor. In this scenario, the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit will decrease, which contributes to the sterling's immediate strengthening against both the dollar and the euro. Although the "hard" Brexit was eliminated twice, legally it remains as the "default" scenario if no agreement is reached by April 12.

The UK remains in the customs union. This will allow the country to conduct free trade, while a single market will be closed. It may also mean that Britain will have to maintain some form of freedom of movement of citizens throughout the eurozone.

One of the versions of Theresa May's proposal is the Malthouse deal. Here, the Irish "backstop" is replaced by "technical solutions", which are currently not defined.

The idea of a second referendum remains.

The simplest option is to abolish Article 50. It is unlikely for it to receive a greater support in the House of Commons. Deputies fear that in this way they will ignore the will of the British, expressed in a referendum in 2016.

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[IFX Gertrude]

EUR/CAD approaching resistance, potential drop!

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190401/analytics5ca16fecbb83d.png

EURCAD is approaching our first resistance at 1.5033 (horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension , 23.6% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong drop might occur to our major resistance at support at 1.4925 (horizontal swing low support). RSI (34) is also approaching resistance and ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Building Approvals Surge 19.1% In February

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The total number of building approvals in Australia jumped a seasonally adjusted 19.1 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - coming in at 17,074.

That was way above forecasts for a fall of 1.8 percent following the 2.5 percent gain in January.

On a yearly basis, building approvals sank 12.5 percent - but that also beat expectations for a fall of 27.0 percent after tumbling 28.6 percent in the previous month.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 3.6 percent in February, while private sector dwellings excluding houses surged 64.6 percent. The value of total building approved rose 15.4 percent in February.

The value of residential building rose 24.7 percent, while the value of non-residential building rose 2.1 percent.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Australia Has A$4.801 Billion Trade Surplus

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/australia/5.jpg

Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$4.801 billion in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That beat expectations for a surplus of A$3.70 billion and was up from A$4.549 billion in January.

Exports were flat on month at A$39.833 billion. Non-rural goods rose A$127 million, while non-monetary gold fell A$142 million (7 percent) and rural goods fell A$44 million (1 percent). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at A$10 million. Services credits rose A$136 million (2 percent).

Imports fell 1.0 percent to A$35.032 billion.

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[IFX Gertrude]

The players believed in the euro, but the signal was "bearish"

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/Nr2kbxBpDgIZ-OMfOhfzxfLZpkdJrUPoXiIWGO5hA34If9U0sxtJEsfczeUddT9 C0_RSlNbQSZAhpWEzcvXVsdJY9jXKT_yFVHtjmX7V44035iMtr 6paCSAoFPLDUmFFkYpfrV3H

The euro stopped a six-day decline and increased due to the fact that market participants believed in it. Improving the mood for risky assets is supported by optimism about the deal between the US and China and strong data for China and the eurozone. The euro is rising, while German bonds are falling, and the 10-year yield has risen briefly above zero.

Imports fell 1.0 percent to A$35.032 billion.

The dollar missed the initiative, the EUR/USD pair added 0.45% at $ 1.1252 on Wednesday. The ability to stay above the March lows led to triggering trailing stops, with a huge number being placed above $1.1250. This information was shared with Bloomberg by two traders from Europe.

Purchasing manager indices for the services sector in March surpassed all four major economies in the region. In this regard, some concerns over the decline in production have softened.

Bear slope

Meanwhile, strategists who write for Bloomberg, warned that the general signal for the euro remains bearish for the long term.

It is worth recalling the deeply negative real yield, the high level of debt and the stubbornly slow growth of the region's economy. Factors that could protect the euro, are frankly little, so the currency will weaken in the coming months.

The exception is that the euro will be used as a safe-haven in times of stress due to the region's current account surplus and relatively low currency volatility. However, the current account surplus slightly decreases.

Additional pressure on the single currency will come from parliamentary elections in the European Union in May and early elections in Spain. Political tensions in France and Italy will also add pressure on the euro.

Brexit consequences for Europe

Now they are actively discussing the possible consequences of an exit without a deal. This is dangerous not only for Britain itself, but also for Europe and the world economy as a whole. Investors are forced to admit that the "hard" scenario next week is not only not excluded, but also quite possible.

Goldman Sachs tried to describe the economic effect of Brexit 2.5 years after the referendum. The picture turned out, to put it mildly, alarming.

So, during the week after the referendum, the UK economy lost 2.4% of GDP, or about 600 million pounds. Most of these losses relate to business investment, so the bank is inclined to believe that experts underestimated the effect of political uncertainty.

Brexit every 2.5 years is a major stimulant for the UK markets and investments. In the first quarter of this year, growing uncertainty reduced investment growth by 5% in quarterly terms.

Major investments (airplanes, trains, and equipment) and services (hotels and restaurants) are most severely affected, heightening the threat of recession in the European industrial sector.

Another shock

As noted by the bank, risky assets in the world markets were affected by the referendum's results, especially in Europe. Since an exit without a deal would be another shock, then this situation may happen again.

The "soft" scenario next week will support the UK economy. With a random exit, the European economy will suffer negative consequences for several years.

The strengths of the ECB are not limitless

Of course, the regulator is able to remove the painful symptoms of the initial shock in the financial market. In this case, it will resume buying bonds and reduce the profitability of Italian securities. However, the ECB is unlikely to cope with a third recession over the past 10 years.

Worst of all, the central bank is already backing down, retreating from its plans to tighten policies and promising that it would keep low rates until the end of this year. It turns out that the regulator has a limited arsenal of tools to mitigate the consequences of a negative scenario.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Euro Mixed Ahead Of German Industrial Production

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Destatis will publish German industrial production for February at 2:00 am ET Friday. Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro fell against the yen, it held steady against the rest of major counterparts.

The euro was worth 125.39 against the yen, 1.1227 against the franc, 0.8564 against the pound and 1.1229 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Has Y2,676.8 Billion Current Account Surplus

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/japan/5.jpg

Japan had current account surplus of 2,676.8 billion yen in February, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

That exceeded expectations for a surplus of 2,633.5 billion yen following the 600.4 billion yen surplus in January.

Exports were down 1.9 percent on year to 6,307.0 billion yen, while imports skidded an annual 6.6 percent to 5,817.8 billion yen.

The trade surplus came in at 489.2 billion yen, shy of expectations for 591.3 billion yen but up from the 964.8 billion yen deficit in the previous month.

The adjusted current account showed a surplus of 1,957.6 billion, beating forecasts for 1,920.9 billion yen and up from 1,833.0 billion yen a month earlier.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan Producer Prices Add 0.3% In March

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/japan/2.jpg

Producer prices in Japan were up 0.3 percent on month in March, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday - exceeding expectations for 0.2 percent and unchanged from the February reading.

On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 1.3 percent - again topping forecasts for 1.0 percent and up from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Export prices added 0.8 percent on month and 0.2 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices jumped 1.6 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Japan M2 Money Stock Gains 2.4% On Year In March

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The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.4 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday - coming in at 1,012.7 trillion yen.

That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month's reading.

The M3 money stock climbed an annual 2.1 percent to 1,344.7 trillion yen - also unchanged from a month earlier and matching forecasts.

The L money stock advanced 2.4 percent on year to 1,794.0 trillion yen, up from the 2.1 percent increase in February.

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[IFX Gertrude]

What is the main driver for the dollar/yen pair today?

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/bfMGf1IBB5PAlym2pECjgzq0ELn1fZ5YmH7qpJKssrYRwvqARo MWE6XjLNA0jQirzhsAeBiqkeYZNsLUCV0fL9a5g5RQc4xtubts dvPhpzduvjp6cTa0nf4OX35e2QXXDh_CVzDr

After closing in negative territory for three consecutive days and dropping to a low in April, the USDJPY pair changed direction and rose to its highest point of 111.35

The strong dollar seems to be supporting the pair's recovery today. Against the background of positive statistics, the US dollar index rises above the level of 97.00 today, erasing the losses of yesterday.

According to the results of the weekly report of the US Secretary of Labor, it became known that initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to a low from 1969, by 196 thousand in the week to April 5. In addition, the producer price index rose 0.6% for the month and 2.2% for the year. Both figures were higher than market expectations.

Also, by 0.75%, the yield on 10-year treasurers rises, which serves as an additional impetus for the dollar/yen pair.

Today, the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard is expected, the main topic of which will be the assessment of the market value of the dollar, which is likely to become the main driver for the USDJPY pair.

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[IFX Gertrude]

NZ Dollar Climbs Amid Rising Risk Appetite On Trade Deal Hopes

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/trade/3.jpg

The New Zealand dollar strengthened against its major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday amid rising risk appetite, as investors welcomed progress in trade talks between U.S. and China, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that trade deal would go "way beyond" previous efforts to open China's markets to U.S. companies.

Speaking on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund this weekend, Mnuchin said that U.S-China trade talks are "close to the final round of concluding issues".

Mnuchin said that the two sides have consented that "the enforcement mechanism works in both directions."

Data from BusinessNZ showed that New Zealand services sector continued to expand in March, albeit at a slower rate, with a Performance of Services Index score of 52.9.

That's down from 53.6 in February, and it marks the lowest index score since 2012.

The kiwi advanced to an 11-day high of 0.6783 against the greenback, from a low of 0.6760 seen at 5:00 pm ET. The next possible resistance for the kiwi is seen around the 0.69 level.

The kiwi that closed last week's trading at 75.72 against the yen firmed to a 2-week high of 75.96. The kiwi is poised to find resistance around the 77.00 level.

The kiwi appreciated to a 4-day high of 1.6677 against the euro, compared to 1.6700 hit late New York Friday. If the kiwi rises further, 1.64 is possibly seen as its next resistance level.

The NZ currency edged up to 1.0582 against the aussie, following a low of 1.0614 touched at 5:00 pm ET. The kiwi is seen finding resistance around the 1.04 level.

Looking ahead, Swiss producer and import prices for March are due at 2:30 am ET.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will deliver a speech in a television appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box at 8:30 am ET.

In the New York session, New York Fed's empire manufacturing survey for April and Canada existing home sales for March are slated for release.

At 1:00 pm ET, Evans will speak about the economy and monetary policy at the New York Association for Business Economics luncheon.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Carry trade is back in fashion

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/kEEoq8cDxeQdVAVrGfKL5LzofeKhzSY-OCds1vLtZmkHbcAPJc-yzl46l3190f0mvzLO2ZKjUyJRcd-2QCgvJKD_fyOWQ60yrcBNAOYKrzLEu2R5LoNjjCohUqHORCQ3_ ZrFWhKf

In conditions of low volatility, traders once again resort to the help of a carry-trade strategy. Last week, a Bloomberg currency index that measures carry-trade returns from eight emerging markets has increased for the second week in a row. Such dynamics is recorded for the first time in more than two months. At the same time, expected fluctuations in currencies dropped for a second week, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co volatility indicator.

The lack of volatility in the foreign exchange markets suggests that investors need evidence to accelerate the growth of the global economy. Only then will they begin to enter long positions in EM-assets. Buyers' confidence in improving the state of the Chinese economy seems to be increasing every day. But the data on Wednesday, most likely, will show that the growth rate of the second largest economy in the world in Q1 stalled to 6.3%.

Investors continue to worry about country risks. In India, Indonesia and South Africa, elections are scheduled, Brazil is still trying to implement pension reforms, and Turkey cannot stop the economic decline and high inflation.

Upcoming events

On Wednesday, Indonesians will decide whether to give the current president, Joko Widodo a mandate for a second five-year term or to choose another leader. The official count may take several days. Last month, the rupee became the best in Asia after the Philippine peso.

In Brazil, traders' attention will be directed to the first congressional vote on the pension reform bill. Any postponement of a political event scheduled for Wednesday will be perceived negatively. Markets will focus on the number of votes that supported the bill. The situation with the speaker of the lower house, Rodrigo Maya, will also be in sight, after local media accused him of bribery.

Senior representatives of the Bank of Korea on Thursday will discuss the possibility of a rate cut later this year after an unexpected slowdown in inflation in March. Market participants are already evaluating potential monetary easing. The yields on 3-year government bonds for the first time since 2016 fell below the rate at the end of March.

China is in focus

Along with the GDP report for Q1, China will publish monthly data on retail sales and industrial production. Investors are waiting for growth rates. In addition, on Wednesday comes the first maturity of the medium-term credit line in the amount of 367.5 billion yuan, or $ 55 billion. According to Chinese analysts, this gives the ideal time to adjust the reserve indicators of banks in case of disappointment with the growth statistics. China's securities should benefit from easing trade tensions with the US.

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[IFX Gertrude]

This April is going to be idle again for the pound

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/jwdEQb0cfxNYHxDtiFtQZUtFg1yzvyUC-DiC36ELTYFonCqBzXqt0UTkyDs9EIWUp_yEWtF0pbAdEdXb1Nu GnbY6MtuNnX4kDG6bT6TXzTsxTW0tfXez4Y_ey2GuyAZTWZ9An 1Lu

For the second year in a row, the British currency is missing the once-solid seasonal April rally associated with dividend flows. Blame it on the long-suffering Brexit and the risk of participating in European elections. Earlier for more than a decade, the sterling rose in price against the dollar every April. It was a kind of tradition.

The reasons for the pound's growth at this time of year were simple. Local companies repatriated "home" dividends. Most firms are transnational. Not surprisingly, after receiving dividends abroad, they converted them to pounds. This model was absolutely workable and even withstood a powerful shock in the form of the 2008 crisis.

While the pound rose 0.4% in tandem with the US dollar since the end of March, over the past 13 years to 2017, the average sterling grew by 2.3% in April. Last April, the pound approached the peak after the 2016 Brexit, when a referendum was held before turning down. As a result, the GBPUSD pair ended April with a fall of 1.8%.

London has achieved the extension of the country's exit date from the European Union, market concerns about the chaotic "divorce" process have decreased, but this does not mean that the worst is over. Now investors will have to face political risks, such as the upcoming local elections in the UK, and the Brexit deadlock is only delayed. Alarming moods are likely to return and would put even more pressure on the pound. In late April, the British currency may start a new wave of decline.

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[IFX Gertrude]

Fasten your seat belts: after a lull in the market, a surge of "turbulence" is expected

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/pNfmjyX439ZNZ2bKFI6CtwzOC_wDiOUGNhfq7qhSXspGBZjvfq LhJVnQue1Gb_lC4aXZ4tfEcHXi23JC6WwDaOjSsg_2PybhumIs I4tOZlPqhMvjYM78gKk13uTwEWeWeeKwKe2J

Despite the global lull in the Forex market, traders do not seem to relax. The bottom, where JP Morgan's world currency volatility index turned out to be, may portend strong fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate - this has happened three times in the past 25 years. Some currency strategists warn that they should prepare for a surge in market "turbulence."

In the meantime, in the face of declining volatility of key currencies, investors are forced to search every corner of the market in search of profit.

"The lack of serious movement in developed markets means that currency traders should try their luck in the darker corners of the liquid currencies of developing countries," said Peter Rosensstraich of Swissquote Bank.

"Hedge funds have begun to redefine the weight of emerging markets against the dollar," said Philip Ferreira, senior mixed assets strategist at Lyxor Asset Management.

According to Keith Jax, a Societe Generale specialist, using the yen as a funding currency to buy Indian rupee, Chinese yuan or the Philippine peso could bring substantial profits.

Carry trading also looks attractive in a low volatile environment.

"At the beginning of the year, we opened longs for the USD/ZAR pair, since it managed to rally, which took place in February-March. We received about 6% profit on this jump, and I am very pleased with it, "said Allianz investment manager Casper Brzezniak.

"The pound sterling is trading in an even narrower range than its counterparts, since Brexit was postponed until October, and the volatility of the British currency fell sharply. To make money in these conditions, you need to have time to take advantage of short periods of volatility on the news. This strategy can bear fruit if you choose the right range. Timing is also very important," said Scott Thiel of BlackRock Inc.

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