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IFX Gertrude
04-12-2022, 07:44 AM
UK UNEMPLOYMENT DECLINES; JOB VACANCIES AT RECORD HIGH

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The UK unemployment declined in three months to February and job vacancies rose to a new record high, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday.

The jobless rate fell 0.2 percent points from the previous quarter to 3.8 percent in three months to February. The rate came in line with expectations.

At the same time, the employment rate was largely unchanged at 75.5 percent, but remained below the pre-pandemic level.

The number of job vacancies rose to a new record 1,288,000 in January to March period. However, the rate of growth in vacancies continued to slow down.

In March, payrolled employment showed a small monthly growth of 35,000 to a record 29.6 million, data showed.

Average earnings including bonuses, grew 5.4 percent annually in three months to February. Excluding bonus, average earnings was up 4.0 percent. Both rates matched economists' expectations.

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IFX Gertrude
04-13-2022, 05:55 AM
FRANCE TRADE GAP WIDENS IN FEBRUARY

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France's trade deficit increased in February on falling exports, data from the customs office showed on Tuesday.

Another official data showed that the current account deficit narrowed in February.

The trade deficit widened to EUR 10.3 billion from EUR 7.96 billion in January. In the same period last year, the shortfall was EUR 5.35 billion.

Exports dropped 3.9 percent on month, while imports grew 0.8 percent.

On a yearly basis, exports and imports were up 18.1 percent and 27.9 percent, respectively.

The current account deficit narrowed to EUR 1.1 billion in February from EUR 1.3 billion in January, the Bank of France reported.

The deficit on trade in goods increased slightly to EUR 6.8 billion, while the surplus on trade in services rose marginally to EUR 4.9 billion.

The financial account showed net capital inflows of EUR 18.6 billion in February.

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IFX Gertrude
04-14-2022, 06:10 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.01%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.01%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.12%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 2.03%.

The leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Boeing Co, which gained 6.59 points or 3.74% to close at 182.87. Walmart Inc rose 3.99 points or 2.60% to close at 157.22. American Express Company rose 4.05 points or 2.31% to close at 179.59.

The biggest losers were JPMorgan Chase & Co, which shed 4.24 points or 3.22% to end the session at 127.30. The Travelers Companies Inc rose 1.23 points (0.67%) to close at 183.71, while 3M Company gained 0.08 points (0.05%) to close at 148. .66. Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were American Airlines Group, which rose 10.62% to 18.95, Gap Inc, which gained 8.23% to close at 14.46, and shares of Host Hotels & Resorts Inc, which rose 8.12% to end the session at 19.70.

The biggest losers were AbbVie Inc, which shed 4.19% to close at 158.95. PayPal Holdings Inc fell 2.85% to 105.17.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Kaleido Biosciences Inc, which rose 75.06% to hit 0.30, Antares Pharma Inc, which gained 49.20% to close at 5.58, and also shares of Veru Inc, which rose 42.86% to close the session at 14.30.

The drop leaders were NanoString Technologies Inc, which shed 33.63% to close at 21.87. Shares of Polarityte Inc lost 30.84% and ended the session at 0.27. Quotes Crown Electrokinetics Corp. decreased in price by 19.63% to 1.31.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2463) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (778), while quotes of 110 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,913 companies rose in price, 955 fell, and 226 remained at the level of the previous close.

Shares of Antares Pharma Inc surged to a high of 49.20% or 1.84 points to close at 5.58. Veru Inc surged to a 52-week high, up 42.86% or 4.29 points to close at 14.30.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 10.06% to 21.82.

Gold futures for June delivery added 0.10%, or 1.90, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for May delivery rose 3.72%, or 3.74, to $104.34 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for June delivery rose 4.09%, or 4.28, to $108.92 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.58% to hit 1.09, while USD/JPY edged up 0.24% to hit 125.64.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.39% to 99.90.

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IFX Gertrude
04-15-2022, 05:31 AM
CHINA HOUSE PRICE DATA DUE ON FRIDAY

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China will on Friday release March figures for its house price index, headlining a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In February, house prices were up 2.0 percent on year.

Finally, several of the regional markets are closed for Good Friday, including Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong and Indonesia - while Thailand remains shuttered for the Songkran Festival.

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IFX Gertrude
04-18-2022, 07:44 AM
Bitcoin (BTC) will not fall below $24,500

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Bitcoin is declining for the second week in a row under the influence of the negative dynamics of the stock market. The main decline in BTC last week occurred on Monday against the backdrop of a noticeable drawdown in US stock indices.

The leaders of the world's largest crypto exchanges, interviewed by CNBC, said that they have recently noticed signs of a "crypto thaw", expressed in a changing attitude towards cryptocurrencies from governments.

The Central Bank of Portugal granted the bank the country's first license to work with crypto assets. Bison Bank has become the first bank in Portugal to offer custody and trading services for cryptocurrencies for large clients.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said recently that he intends to buy Twitter. Cardano founder Hoskinson suggested that Musk join forces to create a decentralized social network if Twitter refuses the deal.

The 12th DOGE cryptocurrency will become the most used cryptocurrency for online payments, said Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev. However, to do this, developers must increase the speed of transaction processing.

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation finalized the draft law on mining and circulation of digital assets. The government of the Russian Federation submitted to the State Duma a draft law on the taxation of digital assets by three types of taxes.

The creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB believes that bitcoin will no longer fall to $24,500. His optimism regarding the asset remains unchanged. According to PlanB, BTC could reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

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IFX Gertrude
04-20-2022, 02:22 AM
Digital Yuan: checkmate for USD in the next 50 years

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The cryptosphere is invading most sectors of the global economy, primarily financial. Virtual money is being developed in a number of countries. China has become the leader in this issue, where the crypto yuan is being tested. At the moment, China's digital money is looking for ways to compete with American ones.

Currently, China's virtual currency, known as the digital yuan (e-CYN or e-yuan), is under development. The electronic means of payment is issued by the People's Bank of China (PBC). Now the digital version of China's fiat currency is being tested in 20 cities of the country. This year, China's electronic money became available for use by foreigners for the first time.

The development of the innovative currency of the People's Republic of China did not attract much attention, because "it was in the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," said Kyle Bass, manager of the hedge fund Hayman Capital Management. According to the analyst, the release and introduction of crypto yuan is "the biggest threat to the West over the past 50 years." Bass urges markets not to ignore this fact, but, if possible, to create a similar financial instrument capable of reflecting the negative impact of e-CYN.

According to the investor, the full-fledged introduction of Chinese digital money outside the country will lead to the collapse of the world economy. In such a situation, Beijing will be able to attract certain groups of foreigners and convince them to use e-CYN. These include citizens who are experiencing financial difficulties and are prone to corruption. "This gives China the opportunity to bribe everyone and everyone in the world who succumbs to corruption. Such a development threatens national security and leads to digital authoritarianism," says Bass.

The current situation worries American lawmakers who are developing regulatory documents limiting the influence of the digital yuan. In May 2021, members of the American Congress introduced the "Law on Dollars of the XXI century". According to this document, the US Treasury Department should include in the report to Congress any risks to the USD associated with the digital yuan.

This year, this issue has not lost its relevance. In March 2022, Senator Marsha Blackburn and representatives of the Republican Party introduced the "Say No to the Silk Road" law. If it is adopted, the US Department of Commerce will need to report on all transactions with the electronic yuan. The bill also provides for notifying citizens traveling to China "about the dangers of the digital yuan."

The US authorities are concerned about the potential competition of e-yuan with the digital dollar. Against this background, the role of innovative developments of virtual currency has grown dramatically. According to the Atlantic Council think tank, more than 80 countries, including the United States, are planning to issue state-controlled digital assets (CBDC). Earlier, US President Joe Biden stated the exceptional importance of research and development in the field of CBDC. The release of innovative means of payment "meets the national interests," the head of the White House stressed.

According to Bass, the goal of China's global deployment of the electronic yuan is to reduce dependence on the US currency. "The majority of global transactions (87%) carried out by China are conducted in dollars," the investor notes. Against this background, the Chinese authorities have set a course for de-dollarization. One of the ways to overcome it is the introduction of a digital means of payment. Another variant of the antidollar strategy is the use of China's fiat currency in trade settlements with some countries, in particular with Russia. Such actions cause serious damage to the USD hegemony, experts believe. However, the full triumph of digital e-CYN is still far away, although the first steps in this direction have already been taken.

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IFX Gertrude
04-20-2022, 06:30 AM
Bitcoin has risen sharply in price after a loud fall the day before

At the auction on Tuesday, the value of the first cryptocurrency shows a steady growth of 6%. At one point digital gold has jumped the $41,400 mark.

Throughout the day, the virtual asset market was recovering after a spectacular decline the day before. Yesterday, bitcoin collapsed to $38,500, updating the local low in mid-March, but today the coin has easily won back the fall.

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According to Binance, the largest exchange in terms of trading volume of virtual assets, over the past 24 hours BTC has gained 5.83% in value and is trading at $41,480. % - up to $41,504.

Since the beginning of April, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency have been below market forecasts amid negative events in world markets, as well as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. So, during the current month, bitcoin has already fallen in price by almost 9%.

According to the results of the first quarter of 2022, the cost of digital gold lost 1.5%. At the same time, the past March was a rather favorable period for the asset, as a result of which it reported growth by 10%, having strengthened for the second consecutive month.

Recall that bitcoin lost more than 16% in January, and its price increased by 12% in February.

The BTC updated its historical record in November 2021, soaring above $69,000. Since then, the cryptocurrency has moved into a steady decline.

According to the results of the past year, the cost of bitcoin increased 1.6 times - to $46,200 from $28,900.

Experts call the Russian-Ukrainian conflict the main downward factor for the digital currency market today. Analysts are confident that the sooner the tense geopolitical situation begins to stabilize, the more confident the digital asset market will feel in the short term. After reaching peace agreements, the economy will need to be restored, which will require a lot of money. One of the components of this tangible amount of funds will be cryptocurrency. In this case, the digital asset market will receive a spectacular impetus and rush to growth.

On Tuesday, the leading altcoins from the top 10 by capitalization willingly adopted the trend of the main virtual asset and also began to effectively increase in price. As a result, over the past 24 hours, the Ethereum token has grown by 4.5%, Solana by 6%, and Terra by 14%.

According to the world's largest virtual asset data aggregator CoinGecko, over the past day, the total capitalization of the crypto market has grown by 4.5% to $1.89 trillion.

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IFX Gertrude
04-21-2022, 09:09 AM
USD/CAD: Loonie is confused by ups and downs and looks to the downside, then to the upside

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The Canadian dollar started the week on the rise, and ends it in some confusion. After disappointing macro statistics and another round of inflation, the loonie significantly fell. However, the loonie is trying to "keep face" and is looking for ways out of this situation.

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar in the middle of the week, reaching 1.2584. However, after four days of growth, the USD/CAD pair showed a downward momentum, retreating from the local high at 1.2644. To date, the pair is struggling to hold its positions, but is determined to catch up. On Thursday, April 21, the USD/CAD pair traded at 1.2480, leaning to the downside and upside from time to time.

The "loonie" was tripped up by the growing inflation recorded in Canada. According to current data, consumer inflation in the country accelerated to 6.7% in March, exceeding forecasts. Recall that this figure was 5.7% in February. Against this background, the Bank of Canada is interested in raising interest rates above current levels. The central bank's immediate goals are to curb inflation without provoking a recession in the economy.

The pressure on the USD/CAD pair is exerted by the growing US currency. According to analysts, the resistance to the dollar is draining the loonies. In the future, the loonie will sink even more in relation to the greenback, however, it will strengthen against the euro.

The Canadian currency was supported by the increase in the key rate by the Bank of Canada (by 50 bp) recorded last week. In addition, the central bank announced the start of quantitative tightening in response to accelerating inflation.

The Canadian economy got a head start thanks to rising prices for commodities and energy. This contributes to the decisive actions of the Bank of Canada, aimed at normalizing monetary policy. The country's economy is on the winning side compared to other states that are importers of energy and hydrocarbons. In such a situation, the CAD receives tripartite support: from a significant influx of money into the country, from the growth of business activity and the potential tightening of the central bank's monetary policy.

According to experts, galloping inflation is a weighty argument for further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada. The implementation of such a scenario will strengthen the position of the Canadian dollar in the medium term. In such a situation, experts recommend holding short positions on the USD/CAD pair with a target of 1.2450.

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IFX Gertrude
04-22-2022, 08:26 AM
Dollar remains a financial shield, and the euro is afraid of collapse, not wanting to be overboard

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The European currency, the greenback's rival for the EUR/USD pair, is still in limbo.

The dollar has had an impressive rally this month, which is now gradually slowing down. The catalyst for this was the decline in the yield of 10-year treasuries, the growth of which stalled near 3%. To date, long-term US Treasuries have tested zero for the first time since 2020.

The American currency is supported by two powerful drivers - the expectation of an early rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Earlier, Mary Daly, the head of the San Francisco Fed, confirmed the central bank's plans to bring the rate to 2.5% by the end of 2022. According to the FOMC representative, an increase in interest rates by 50 bps is possible "at several Fed meetings." James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, agrees with this opinion. The politician allows the central bank to raise the rate by 75 bp at once. Recall that the head of the Fed of St. Louis is in the forefront of the Fed in the issue of aggressively raising rates in order to curb inflation.

Despite the local weakening of the US currency, it retains a strong potential for growth. In addition to expectations of an early rise in the Fed rate and the launch of a quantitative tightening program, the USD is supported by the risk aversion of traders. Experts attribute the decline in risk appetite to the sliding of the global economy into recession.

The greenback shows caution against this background, maintaining its strength, but not demonstrating it. The greenback rose slightly against the euro on Thursday evening, April 21, reaching 1.0847. The EUR/USD pair was cruising near 1.0815 on the morning of Friday, April 22, trying not to slide to the bottom.


According to experts, the current mood in the currency markets is positive for the US currency, which cannot be said about the European one. According to the calculations of Nordea economists, at the end of 2022, the EUR/USD pair will be near 1.1000, and over the next three months it will test the 1.0500 mark.

The catalyst for the recent rally of the EUR/USD pair was the hawkish comments of the European Central Bank leaders. According to Martins Kazaks, a representative of the central bank, an increase in the key rate is possible in July. The policy was supported by Luis de Guindos, vice-president of the ECB, who expects the QE program to be curtailed in the specified month.

The current vulnerability of the euro is fueled by the prolonged Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The tension in relations between Europe and Russia increases uncertainty in the dynamics of the euro and calls into question the economic prospects of the eurozone.

As for the dynamics of the dollar, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, on the contrary, played into the hands of the latter. At the same time, experts are confident that the current geopolitical confrontation will affect the European economy more than the American one. Against this background, on the wave of growth, the greenback returned to pre-pandemic levels, maintaining the status of a reliable protective asset.

The USD was strengthened by the expectation of an economic recovery in the United States, capable of outstripping that in other countries. The implementation of such a scenario will allow the Fed to begin the cycle of monetary tightening faster. However, there are pitfalls here, the main one of which is the high risk of recession in the US economy. A sharp drop in the purchasing power of American households can slow down economic growth in the United States. Adding fuel to the fire is the likelihood of an aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

As for the prospects of the European economy and the euro, they will improve only if the geopolitical conflict is offset. However, this is still far away, as the euro is in a situation in which something bad could happen to it at any time and it is seriously worrying the markets. According to Thomas Mayer, former chief economist at Deutsche Bank, the euro is rapidly losing stability. According to the analyst, the European Union is threatened by prolonged inflation, the result of which will be the "destruction of the euro." At the same time, the ECB continues to print banknotes, but does nothing to normalize the economy, Mayer believes. According to the expert, strong inflation in the eurozone threatens negative long-term economic and social consequences.

Earlier, Alexandre del Valle, a French political scientist and economist, announced the possible collapse of the euro. The analyst paid special attention to anti-Russian sanctions that could push the single currency and the eurobloc economy into the abyss. Del Valle accused the White House of pushing the European Union to tighten sanctions and abandon Russian energy carriers, stressing that these measures would lead "to the collapse of the euro and an explosion in prices." At the same time, the United States imposes its shale gas on the Europeans, which is more expensive than Russian LNG.

The current situation is undermining the positions of the EUR/USD pair. However, experts are counting on the relative stability of the pair in the medium term. According to ING bank economists, in the coming months the EUR/USD pair will consolidate in a wide range of 1.0500-1.1000. In 2023, the existing monetary trends will not lose relevance. The Fed is expected to approach the peak of monetary tightening, and the ECB will continue its hawkish monetary cycle, albeit at a slower pace. The implementation of such a scenario will allow the EUR/USD pair to strengthen to 1.1600 and remain in this range during 2023, Nordea Bank believes.

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IFX Gertrude
04-25-2022, 06:00 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Business confidence survey data from Germany is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, the Turkish Statistical Office releases manufacturing confidence survey data for April. In the meantime, Spain producer prices data is due for March. Prices had increased 40.7 percent year-on-year in February.

At 4.00 am ET, the ifo Institute is scheduled to issue Germany's business climate survey report for April. Economists expect the sentiment index to fall to 89.1 from 90.8 in the previous month.

At 5.00 am ET, eurozone construction output is due from Eurostat.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry publishes Industrial Trends survey results. The order book balance is seen at 21 in April versus 26 in March.

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IFX Gertrude
04-26-2022, 05:12 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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South Korea's gross domestic product was up a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2022, the Bank of Korea said in Tuesday's advance estimate.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.6 percent following the 1.2 percent expansion in the previous three months.

On a yearly basis, GDP rose 3.1 percent - again beating forecasts for 2.8 percent and down from 4.2 percent in the three months prior.

Real gross domestic income increased 0.6 percent on quarter and 0.1 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
04-27-2022, 05:31 AM
AUSTRALIA INFLATION JUMPS 5.1% ON YEAR IN Q1

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Consumer prices in Australia climbed 5.1 percent on year in the first quarter of 2022, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - beating forecasts for an increase of 4.6 percent and accelerating from 3.5 percent in the previous three months.

On a quarterly basis, inflation jumped 2.1 percent - again exceeding expectations for a gain of 1.7 percent and up from 1.3 percent in the three months prior.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean came in at 1.4 percent on quarter and 3.7 percent on year, up from 1.0 percent on quarter and 2.6 percent on year in the previous quarter.

The RBA's weighted median was up 1.0 percent on quarter and 3.2 percent on year after rising 0.9 percent on quarter and 2.7 percent on year three months earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
04-28-2022, 05:58 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY FLASH INFLATION DATA DUE

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Flash inflation from Germany and economic confidence survey results from eurozone are due on Thursday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Sweden releases quarterly GDP data and retail sales figures for the first quarter. The economy is expected to shrink 0.5 percent sequentially, in contrast to the 1.1 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE is scheduled to issue flash consumer prices and unemployment data. EU harmonized inflation is expected to ease to 9 percent in April from 9.8 percent in March.

In the meantime, economic confidence survey data from Sweden and Turkey are due.

Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank announces its monetary policy decision. The bank is expected to hold its repo rate at zero percent.

At 4.00 am ET, business and consumer confidence survey results are due from Italy.

At 5.00 am ET, the European Commission is scheduled to issue Euro area economic confidence survey data for April. The economic sentiment index is forecast to fall to 108.0 from 108.5 in March.

At 8.00 am ET, Destatis publishes Germany's flash consumer and harmonized inflation data for April. Consumer price inflation is expected to ease marginally to 7.2 percent from a record 7.3 percent in March.

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IFX Gertrude
04-29-2022, 06:07 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE GDP DATA DUE

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First quarter national accounts for the euro currency bloc as well as from several member states including Germany, France, Spain and Italy are due on Friday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 1.30 am ET, the French statistical office Insee releases GDP data and consumer spending for March. The economy is forecast to grow 0.3 percent in the first quarter, slower than the 0.7 percent expansion seen in the preceding period.

At 2.00 am ET, import prices data from Germany is due. Import price inflation is seen at 28.6 percent in March versus 26.3 percent in February.

At 2.45 am ET, France statistical office Insee publishes consumer and producer prices. Consumer price inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.5 percent in April.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE releases quarterly GDP and retail sales data. Economists expect the economic growth to slow to 0.5 percent in the first quarter from 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021.

At 4.00 am ET, quarterly national accounts data from Germany and Italy are due. The largest eurozone economy is forecast to grow 0.1 percent in the first quarter, reversing a 0.3 percent fall a quarter ago. Italy's GDP is expected to fall 0.2 percent after an expansion of 0.6 percent.

Also, monetary aggregates data is due from the European Central Bank.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is set to release flash GDP and inflation figures. The eurozone is expected to log a steady growth of 0.3 percent in the first quarter. Inflation is expected to climb further to another record 7.5 percent in April from 7.4 percent in March.

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IFX Gertrude
05-02-2022, 06:16 AM
JAPAN MANUFACTURING SECTOR SLOWS IN APRIL - JIBUN

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The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in April, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank showed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 53.5.

That's down from 54.1 in March although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The lower reading of the headline index was partly the result of a softer rise in new orders. Sales increased for the seventh month running, though growth eased to a milder pace overall. Firms commented that growth was held back by delivery delays and the Russia-Ukraine war. Geopolitical tensions and rising COVID-19 cases in China continued to weigh heavily on export orders, which fell solidly for the second month running.

Production levels increased for the second successive month in April, with the rate of growth little-changed from March. Firms linked the expansion to rising new orders, though difficulty securing inputs had prevented an acceleration in growth.

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IFX Gertrude
05-03-2022, 02:31 AM
SOUTH KOREA INFLATION JUMPS 4.8% ON YEAR IN APRIL

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Consumer prices in South Korea were up 4.8 percent on year in April, Statistics Korea said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 4.4 percent and was up from 4.1 percent in March.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.7 percent - again topping forecasts for an increase of 0.4 percent and unchanged from the previous month's reading.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile costs of food, was up 0.4 percent on month and 3.1 percent on year - accelerating from 0.1 percent on month and 2.9 percent on year a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
05-04-2022, 05:31 AM
VIETNAM MANUFACTURING PMI UNCHANGED AT 51.7 IN APRIL - S&P

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The manufacturing sector in Vietnam continued to expand in April at a steady pace, the latest survey from S&P Global showed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.7.

That's unchanged from the March reading remains above the boom-or-bust line.

Both output and employment returned to growth in April, after having dropped during March. In both cases, firms benefited from falls in COVID-19 case numbers following the peak of the latest wave in March. The improved pandemic situation enabled employees to return to work, while there were also widespread reports of recruitment. In fact, the rate of job creation was the fastest for a year.

Rising capacity helped firms to expand output and take advantage of strengthening customer demand. Output increased for the sixth time in the past seven months.

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IFX Gertrude
05-05-2022, 03:07 AM
AUSTRALIA MARCH TRADE SURPLUS A$9.314 BILLION

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Australia posted a merchandise trade surplus of A$9.314 billion in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That topped expectations for a surplus of A$8.5 billion and was up from A$7.457 billion in February.

Imports fell A$1.949 billion or 5.0 percent A$40.139 billion, driven by decreases in imports of processed industrial supplies.

Exports fell A$72 million (0 percent) to A$49.453 billion, driven by falls in exports of non-monetary gold and cereal grains and cereal preparations.

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IFX Gertrude
05-09-2022, 06:07 AM
JAPAN SERVICES SECTOR EXPANDS IN APRIL - JIBUN BANK

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The services sector in Japan swung into expansion territory in April, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Monday with a services PMI score of 50.7.

That's up from 49.4 in March and it moves above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

While the lifting of remaining restrictions aided the recovery in activity, stronger growth was held back by uncertainty linked to the Ukraine war, however. Total new business, meanwhile, fell for the third time in four months in April, albeit only marginally.

Service providers commonly attributed this to weaker domestic orders amid concerns about the outbreak of war and potential spill-over effects of rising COVID-19 cases in China. Growth in markets outside Asia however, contributed to the first rise in foreign demand for the first time since last December, and at the quickest rate for two-and-a-half years.

The survey also showed that the composite index improved to 51.1 in April from 50.3 in March.

The positive reading was the second in successive months and the strongest recorded since last December. Services firms reported a renewed rise in activity, while manufacturers signaled an unchanged, moderate rate of expansion.

Aggregate new orders stagnated in April, however, amid a renewed fall at service providers and softer growth at manufacturers. As a result, weaker new business inflows eased pressure on private sector capacity and allowed firms to work through outstanding business which fell for the third time in four months.

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IFX Gertrude
05-10-2022, 05:43 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY ZEW ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Economic sentiment survey data from Germany is due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway releases consumer and producer prices for April. Inflation is expected to rise to 4.7 percent from 4.5 percent in March.

At 3.00 am ET, consumer prices and retail sales figures are due from the Czech Republic. Economists expect inflation to climb to 13.2 percent in April from 12.7 percent in March.

Also, unemployment from Turkey and consumer prices from Hungary are due.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat publishes industrial output figures for March. Production is forecast to fall 1.9 percent on month, reversing a 4.0 percent rise in February.

At 5.00 am ET, Germany's ZEW economic confidence survey results are due. The economic sentiment index is seen at -42.0 in May versus -41.0 in April. In the meantime, the Hellenic Statistical Authority releases Greece consumer price figures for May.

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IFX Gertrude
05-11-2022, 03:30 AM
CHINA CONSUMER PRICES CLIMB 2.1% ON YEAR IN APRIL

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Consumer prices in China were up 2.1 percent on year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 1.8 percent and was up from 1.5 percent in March.

On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.4 percent - again beating forecasts for a gain of 0.2 percent following the flat reading from the previous month.

The bureau also said that producer prices spiked 8.0 percent on year, beating expectations for a gain of 7.7 percent but slowing from the 8.3 percent increase a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
05-12-2022, 04:19 AM
AUSTRALIA BUILDING APPROVALS SINK 18.5% IN MARCH

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The total number of building permits issued in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 185 percent on month in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at 15,183.

That was in line with expectations following the 42.0 percent surge in February.

On a yearly basis, permits were down 35.6 percent.

Permits for private sector houses shed 3.0 percent on month and 32.2 percent on year to 9,932, while permits issued for dwellings excluding houses tumbled 29.9 percent on month and 41.0 on year to 5,004.

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IFX Gertrude
05-13-2022, 06:06 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DUE

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Industrial production data from eurozone is due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway releases GDP data for the first quarter. Mainland-Norway is expected to contract 0.5 percent sequentially, reversing the 1.4 percent rise in the fourth quarter.

At 2.45 am ET, France final consumer and harmonized prices figures are due. The statistical office is expected to confirm 4.8 percent inflation for April.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE releases revised CPI & HICP data. According to flash estimate, consumer price inflation eased to 8.4 percent in April from 9.8 percent in March.

In the meantime, retail sales and industrial production data from Turkey and industrial output from Hungary are due. At 4.00 am ET, consumer price data is due from Poland.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to issue Euro area industrial production data for March. Economists forecast output to fall 2.0 percent on month, in contrast to the 0.7 percent rise in February.

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IFX Gertrude
05-16-2022, 06:50 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EU SPRING ECONOMIC FORECAST DUE

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Economic forecast from the EU is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's wholesale prices for April. Wholesale prices had increased 22.6 percent annually in March.

In the meantime, Statistics Norway publishes foreign trade data for April.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is scheduled to release producer prices for April. Economists forecast producer price inflation to rise to 25.5 percent from 24.7 percent in March.

At 5.00 am ET, the European Commission releases 2022 Spring forecast.

Also, Eurostat releases euro area foreign trade data for March. The deficit totaled EUR 7.6 billion in February.

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IFX Gertrude
05-17-2022, 05:41 AM
SINGAPORE EXPORTS RISE 6.4% ON YEAR IN APRIL

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Singapore's non-oil domestic exports were up 6.4 percent on year in April, Enterprise Singapore said on Tuesday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 6.7 percent and down from 7.7 percent in March.

On a monthly basis, exports slipped 3.3 percent - also missing forecasts for a decline of 1.3 percent after falling 2.3 percent in the previous month.

NODX to Singapore's top 10 markets as a whole rose in April, mainly due to Taiwan, Malaysia and the US; though NODX to China, Hong Kong and South Korea declined.

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IFX Gertrude
05-18-2022, 05:59 AM
JAPAN GDP SLIPS LESS THAN EXPECTED IN Q1

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Japan's gross domestic product contracted an annualized 1.0 percent in the first quarter of 2022, the Cabinet Office said in Wednesday's preliminary reading.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 1.8 percent following the downwardly revised 3.8 percent increase in the previous three months (originally 5.4 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP slipped 0.2 percent - but that also beat forecasts for a fall of 0.4 percent following the downwardly revised 0.9 percent gain in the three months prior.

Capital expenditure rose 0.5 percent on quarter, missing forecasts for an increase of 0.7 percent but still up from 0.4 percent in the previous quarter. External demand was down 0.4 percent on quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
05-19-2022, 01:28 AM
JAPAN CORE MACHINE ORDERS JUMP 7.6% ON YEAR IN MARCH

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The value of core machine orders in Japan was up 7.6 percent on year in March, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 869.5 billion yen.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 3.7 percent and was up from 4.3 percent in February.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, core machine orders climbed 7.1 percent - also exceeding expectations for 3.7 percent following the 9.8 percent contraction in the previous month.

For the first quarter of 2022, core machine orders fell 3.6 percent on quarter and gained 6.1 percent on year after advancing 5.1 percent on quarter and 6.4 percent on year in the three months prior.

For the second quarter of 2022, core machine orders are seen lower by 8.1 percent on quarter and 5.6 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
05-20-2022, 05:11 AM
JAPAN CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.5% ON YEAR IN APRIL

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Consumer prices in Japan were up 2.5 percent on year in April, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 2.4 percent and was up sharply from 1.2 percent in March.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, was up 2.1 percent on year - in line with expectations and up from 0.8 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, overall inflation rose 0.4 percent - unchanged from the March reading.

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IFX Gertrude
05-23-2022, 08:20 AM
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR CLIMBS AFTER LABOR VICTORY IN FEDERAL ELECTION

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The Australian dollar appreciated against its most major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday, after the country's Labor Party won the federal election held over the weekend, defeating the ruling party for the first time since 2013.

Labor Party leader Anthony Albanese was sworn in as the new Prime Minister and is set to form a majority government.

"Australians have voted for change. My government intends to implement that change in an orderly way," Albanese said in his first press conference.

Outgoing PM Scott Morrison admitted the defeat on Saturday and said that he would step down as leader of his conservative Liberal Party.

Investors cheered the election result that delivered a clear winner, helping lift the Australian stock market and the domestic currency.

Asian shares were mixed as investors focused on a rise in Covid cases in China's capital Beijing and the outlook for the global economy.

The aussie showed mixed performance against its major rivals on Friday. While it rose against the euro, it held steady against the greenback and the yen. Versus the kiwi, it fell.

The aussie was up by 1.2 percent against the greenback, touching over a 2-week high of 0.7126. The pair had finished Friday's deals at 0.7041. The aussie may face resistance around the 0.73 region, if it gains again.

The aussie added 1.1 percent to touch a 5-day high of 91.04 against the yen. The pair was valued at 90.09 when it ended trading on Friday. Further rally in the currency may challenge resistance around the 93.00 level.

The aussie firmed to over a 2-week high of 1.4885 against the euro, gaining 0.6 percent from Friday's close of 1.4980. Next near term resistance for the aussie is likely seen around the 1.45 level.

The aussie registered a gain of 0.8 percent against the loonie, reaching nearly a 2-week high of 0.9109. At Friday's close, the pair was worth 0.9040. Should the aussie strengthens further, it is likely to test resistance around the 0.92 region.

The aussie, however, dropped to nearly a 3-week low of 1.0973 against the NZ currency from last week's closing value of 1.0987. The aussie is seen facing support around the 1.075 area.

Looking ahead, German Ifo business sentiment index for May will be released in the European session.

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IFX Gertrude
05-24-2022, 06:27 AM
JAPAN MANUFACTURING PMI SLIPS TO 53.2 IN MAY - JIBUN BANK

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The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Jibun Bank showed on Tuesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 53.2.

That's down from 53.5 in April, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Both output and new order growth slowed to a marginal pace that was the weakest for three months. Manufacturers commonly noted heightened supply chain pressures, as delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since the earthquake and tsunami in April 2011, exacerbated by material shortages and renewed lockdown restrictions in China. This contributed to the third-strongest increase in input prices in the survey history.

The survey also showed that the services PMI improved to 51.7 in May from 50.7 in April, while the composite PMI rose to 51.4 from 51.1.

The easing of pandemic-related restrictions and the diminishing impact of the virus were cited as key reasons for the uplift, notably in the tourism sector. Concurrently, the level of new business received returned to expansion territory, and at the quickest rate since last December. That said, firms continued to face sharp rises in input prices, with the latest increase the steepest in the survey history.

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IFX Gertrude
05-25-2022, 06:24 AM
NEW ZEALAND RATE DECISION ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will wrap up its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The RBNZ is widely expected to boost its Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points, from 1.50 percent to 2.00 percent.

Singapore will release final Q1 figures for gross domestic product, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 0.8 percent on quarter and 3.7 percent on year - slowing from 2.3 percent on quarter and 6.1 percent on year in the previous three months. Singapore also will see Q1 data for current account; in the previous three months, the surplus was SGD25.72 billion.

Australia will provide Q1 numbers for construction work done, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 1.0 percent on quarter following the 0.4 percent contraction in the previous three months.

Japan will see final March figures for its leading and coincident economic indexes; in February, their scores were 100.1 and 96.8, respectively.

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IFX Gertrude
06-29-2022, 01:43 AM
US stock indexes fall on Monday

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Main US stock indexes closed in negative territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones shedding 0.2%, the S&P 500 losing 0.3%, and the NASDAQ declining by 0.72%.

Equities were negatively affected by the preliminary US GDP data for January-March 2022. Economists expect the US economy to shrink by 1.5% quarter-over-quarter.

Market players also assess the state of the global economy amid soaring inflation and the resulting policy measures by central banks. Some investors are concerned an aggressive monetary tightening cycle could lead to a recession.

On the Dow Jones, the best-performing stocks were United Health Group, Inc. (2.02%), Chevron, Corp. (1.93%), and Merck & Co., Inc. (1.37%), as well as Nike, Inc., (2.13%).

The worst-performing stocks were Salesforce, Inc. (-2.48%) and Boeing, Co. (-1.99%).

On the S&P 500, the best-performing stocks were Valero Energy, Corp. (8%), Devon Energy, Corp. (7.48%), and Hess, Corp. (5.18%).

The worst performing stocks on the S&P 500 were Etsy, Inc. (-3.55%), Electronic Arts, Inc. (-3.53%), and Autodesk, Inc. (-3.43%).

On the NASDAQ, the biggest gainers were Evofem Biosciences, Inc. (187.71%), Acutus Medical, Inc., (87.59%), and Epizyme, Inc., (55.14%).

The biggest losers were Powerbridge Technologies, Co., Ltd. (-34.95%), Borqs Technologies, Inc. (-24,38%), and Enochian Biosciences, Inc. (-21,92%).

Shares of Coinbase Global dived by 9.3% after Goldman Sachs downgraded it to a sell rating.

Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the New York Stock Exchange by 1,756 to 1,418. On the NASDAQ Stock Exchange, 1,959 rose and 1,850 declined.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 options, decreased by 1.03% to 26.95.

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IFX Gertrude
06-29-2022, 09:33 AM
The cost of bitcoin is falling, but many experts give positive forecasts

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Bitcoin started Tuesday morning with a decline. At one point, the coin traded at $21,141. According to the website for tracking the value of digital assets CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, the lowest price of bitcoin reached $20,577, and the highest $21,478.

Bitcoin has demonstrated confident positive dynamics until Tuesday, since June 18.

Altcoin Market B
itcoin's main competitor, the Ethereum altcoin, also started Tuesday's trading session with a drop and at one point it had reached the $1,182 mark.

As for cryptocurrencies from the top 10 by capitalization, over the past 24 hours, all virtual assets, with the exception of a few stablecoins, have been declining in value. At the same time, Dogecoin (-6.77%) recorded the sharpest drop. According to the results of the past week, this cryptocurrency, on the contrary, showed the best results, soaring by 15.81%.

According to the world's largest aggregator of data on virtual assets CoinGecko, over the past day in the top 100 most capitalized digital assets, the Chiliz coin topped the list of leaders (+15.2%), and the first place in the drop list went to Synthetix Network Token (-13.0%).

Assessment of the market situation

Experts believe that the main reason for such a spectacular collapse of the crypto market in June is the loss of investors' appetite for risks. The weekly trading volumes of bitcoin and Ethereum fell below the levels of 2021.

At the same time, since the beginning of this year, the trading activity of the main altcoin has decreased significantly more than the indicators of the BTC. So, since January 2022, amid extreme market conditions, the outflow of users from the Ethereum network has increased by 28%.

Many analysts believe that it is not worth waiting for the recovery of the activity indicators of the leading cryptocurrencies in the near future, because the current bear market has become the most painful and protracted for the digital asset market in the entire history of their trading. At the same time, the key factors that led to such a deplorable state of cryptocurrencies, experts call a record increase in inflation and the tight monetary policy of the world's central banks.

For comparison, back in November 2021, the total capitalization of the virtual coin market exceeded the $3 trillion mark. Now this indicator balances at the level of $1 trillion.

An equally important proof of the seriousness of current market conditions was the decrease in the spot value of bitcoin below the selling price by 11.3%. Now traders are forced to sell their cryptocurrency at a significant loss. This situation in the virtual asset market is observed only for the fifth time since the launch of bitcoin in 2009.

What awaits bitcoin in the future?

The prolonged agony of the virtual asset market forces experts to make the most unexpected predictions about its future. Recently, analysts from Arcane Research suggested that the potential for reducing the value of bitcoin remains at $10,350.

Earlier, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine investment company, said that bitcoin could soon collapse to the $10,000 mark after a series of recent falls that made investors seriously doubt the stability of the cryptocurrency markets.

At the same time, some crypto experts continue to believe in the bright future of the first cryptocurrency. So, recently, a popular analyst and microblog presenter under the nickname Crypto Rover suggested that bitcoin has not yet completed growth and ahead of it is the fifth, final wave of positive movement.

A similar opinion is shared by the CEO of the software company XOR Strategy. So, recently, Aurelien Ohayon said that the BTC has reached a cyclical bottom and will soon make a rebound from the lows, starting a new growth cycle. If his assumption becomes a reality, Ohayon believes, by the end of June, the MTC can easily reach the level of $30,000.

Previously, well-known trader Peter Brandt predicted the return of bitcoin to a bullish trend when the BTC market dominance index will surely recover above 50%. At the moment, this indicator is balancing at 43.4%. It fell below the 40% level back in January 2022 and has not crossed the 50% mark since then.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of virtual asset management company Galaxy Digital, is also confident that the worst time for bitcoin is over. The analyst suggested that the main reason for the current sales in the crypto market was the liquidation, and not the deliberate refusal of traders from digital assets. According to Novogratz, the record volatility of cryptocurrencies eliminated too many orders, which triggered the recent collapse of the BTC below $18,000.

Despite all his optimism about the future of digital coins, Novogratz admits that a large-scale recession is coming to the crypto market, which will significantly hit the global economy.

Novogratz believes that bitcoin will be able to confidently turn to a bullish trend when the US Federal Reserve stops its tight monetary policy and a permanent increase in the key interest rate. According to the expert's calculations, the virtual asset market will remain in a state of recession for about 18 months.

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IFX Gertrude
06-30-2022, 10:18 AM
The euro is looking for a bottom

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Inflation statistics for Germany misled the markets at the moment. Judging by the slowdown in the indicator in the locomotive of the European economy, some players began to anticipate a possible peak in inflation. A similar report from Spain somewhat grounded the markets, as inflation in this country was higher than expected.

Inflation Rate in Germany (M/M)
Market players will now look for clues on how the European Central Bank will behave at the upcoming meeting in July. Will the central bank take into account the fact that the worst of the current spikes in inflation may have passed and it will be possible to apply a less aggressive approach to raising rates.

At the moment, the ECB is ready to raise rates in July and then in September. The size and number of upcoming increases matter for the euro. If the meeting talks about 50 bp, it will be seen as a strong commitment to normalizing policy and potentially support the single currency.

The softening of inflation indicators may be a good reason for a symbolic rate hike by only 25 bps. This will disappoint the players, as they are already set up for a more aggressive approach by the ECB. Lower inflation data may also mean a reduction in the frequency of rate hikes. In other words, the tightening will not happen monthly, as investors think.

Prior to the release of inflation data, the markets predicted a rate hike of at least 30 bps. The main scenario, after all, was an increase of 50 bp, besides, this figure increasingly surfaced in analytical and financial reviews.

It is worth noting that on June 13, the market expected the ECB deposit rate to peak at 2.48%, but since then it has fallen and as of June 27 was at 2.04%. There is reason to believe that this value will become even lower further.

Holding back expectations of a rate hike will trigger a mechanical reaction of the euro's decline, as was seen at midweek trading. Consequently, the summer consolidation of the EUR/USD pair may be limited to 1.0350-1.0642, and not 1.0350-1.0800.

Be that as it may, the euro does not look completely hopeless. Annual CPI in Spain for May was 10.2%, which is higher than expected 9% and 8.7% for the previous period. It is too early to talk about the stabilization of the inflationary situation in the euro area as a whole, so the ECB is likely to maintain its current rate.

Bank of America Forecast
The euro's weakness is due to the softness of the ECB and the periphery.

When it comes to a raise, it will be difficult for the central bank to keep up with other major central banks tightening policy. The policy divergence between the major central banks will be a key driver of the exchange rate in the coming months, according to Bank of America.

The ECB was left with the lowest interest rate in the G-10. While the majority is starting a quantitative tightening (reversal of easing) program, the ECB is only now about to complete its quantitative easing.

Analysts are convinced that Europe will not begin quantitative tightening until at least the end of 2024. The rate is likely to be increased by 25 bp in July.

The ECB will remain dovish compared to other members of the Big 10 until it eliminates the risks of fragmentation. In this regard, market players will pay more attention to how the ECB solves the issue of curbing the yield of Italian and Greek bonds.

Failure to solve this problem is highly likely to destabilize the eurozone and, therefore, is a key risk for the prospects of the euro.

However, ECB representatives have recently started talking about tools to ensure that the difference in bond yields between different countries remains stable, thereby containing risks. The information was once again reiterated by ECB President Christine Lagarde during her speech at the annual ECB forum.

In the near future, there will be a plan according to which the central bank will continue to buy bonds of vulnerable countries, which will limit the yield that these bonds pay, and therefore limit the cost of borrowing.

To compensate for the stimulus, the bank will pump out liquidity from other parts of the system, potentially offering banks attractive interest rates to hold cash with the ECB, Reuters reports. This is known as the "sterilization" program.

Bank of America has little faith in promises. If we are talking about the development of an instrument, this means that it is not in the ECB.

Bank of America's medium-term forecasts for the euro remain pessimistic until the end of this year. In the long term, a gradual return to equilibrium is expected.

"We maintain our forecast for EUR/USD for this year at 1.0500, which is still below the consensus forecast of 1.1000," analysts write.

In 2023, the quote is expected to be at the level of 1.1500, increasing to 1.2000 in 2024. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains high for these years as well.

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IFX Gertrude
07-04-2022, 11:26 AM
Dollar moving away from the decline, and the sliding euro is far from slowing down

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The US currency is firmly in the leading positions, once again confirming its strength. At the same time, experts fear that the fall of the euro in the EUR/USD pair, which began last week, will continue.

At the end of the past week, the greenback demonstrated a reduction in price in relation to the euro, which continued to weaken. Disappointing reports on the US industrial sector turned out to be the driver of the USD decline. According to current data, the index of business activity in the American industry (ISM Manufacturing) fell to 53% in June from 56.1% in May.

Against this background, the European currency sank significantly against the American one. The catalyst for the fall of the EUR was a large-scale acceleration of annual inflation in 19 eurozone countries. According to reports, inflation made a dizzying turn in June, rising to 8.6% from the previous 8.1%. According to experts, this is another record rise, which increases the likelihood of a tightening of the monetary policy by the European Central Bank.

Many market participants are confident that the ECB may raise the rate again at the July meeting. The reason is the prolonged acceleration of inflation and the risk of its increase. In the current situation, the ECB is ready to revise its forecast of economic growth downward. Against this background, fears about stagflation in the eurozone are growing.

Earlier, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed concerns about the recession, but hoped for a favorable outcome for the eurozone economy.

However, a number of negative factors, such as galloping inflation, low economic growth and a prolonged energy crisis, increase the central bank's concern about a significant downturn in the European economy.

Against this background, the greenback has noticeably strengthened, once again "stepping on the heels" of the euro. On the morning of Monday, July 4, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0433, approaching 1.0349 a five-year low reached in May. According to analysts, such actions mean a flight to the dollar on the part of investors.

Some market participants prefer to invest in USD amid unfavorable prospects for the global economy. At the same time, experts record a number of alarming signs indicating a weakening of the US economy. It should be noted that personal spending in the United States decreased to 0.3% in June from the previous 0.6%. At the same time, the inflation rate is gradually decreasing, and the labor market in the United States is showing steady growth. And so the markets expect the Federal Reserve to continue fighting high inflation and tightening monetary policy.

At the beginning of this week, risky currencies were trading near multi-year lows against the greenback, while the euro remained under pressure. Investors prefer safe haven assets, primarily the dollar. Powerful financial injections supported the latter, allowing it to strengthen against the currencies of exporting countries. Additional support for the USD was provided by the deterioration of the prospects for the global economy. Currently, the greenback is held at high levels, and the dollar index has consolidated near 105,100, approaching the high in the last 20 years. The growth of the US currency was not prevented by the doubts of market participants about the next rise in interest rates in the United States.

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IFX Gertrude
07-05-2022, 08:19 AM
World stock indices received support from the recovery in oil prices

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The European equity markets index rose 0.8%, while the UK FTSE index climbed more than 1%, helped by gains in oil and gas stocks.

Oil fell $1 a barrel earlier on Monday on worries about the global economic outlook, but declines in production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia outweighed those concerns.

Ecuador's oil production has been hit lately by civil unrest, and a strike in Norway could cut supplies this week.

Steven Brennock, a spokesman for oil broker PVM, said the growing supply disruption was exacerbated by a possible shortage of spare capacity from Middle Eastern oil producers. Prices will continue to rise unless new oil hits the markets soon.

A survey of analysts on Friday showed that production of 10 OPEC countries in June fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 28.52 million barrels per day. In the meantime, they promised to increase it by about 275,000 barrels.

Brent crude rose 1.25% to $113.02, while WTI rose 1.2% to $109.76 a barrel.

The MSCI World Markets Index rose 0.38%, while it lost 2.3% last week.

In June, global equity markets hit 18-month lows amid worries about rising inflation and higher interest rates, but have rallied slightly since then.

The broadest MSCI index for Asia-Pacific countries excluding Japan rose by 0.34%.

The Chinese Blue Chip Index finished the day up 0.7% on the back of a 4.65% gain in the sub-index of medical stocks. Cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 restrictions on Sunday amid new coronavirus outbreaks.

The Japanese Nikkei added 0.84%.

US S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures shed 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, as recent weak US data suggests a weaker data in the June jobs report due on Friday. American stock markets are closed today.

The Atlanta Fed's long-awaited Q2 GDP outlook has dropped to -2.1% year-on-year, meaning the country is already in a technical recession.

The jobs report is forecast to point to a slowdown in June job growth to 270,000, with median wage growth declining to 5.0%.

The minutes of the Fed's June meeting, which will be released on Wednesday, are expected to indicate the central bank's inclination to decisively tighten policy. Earlier, the Open Market Committee decided to raise rates by 75 basis points.

The likelihood of another 75 basis point rate hike this month and a rate hike to 3.25%-3.5% by the end of the year is estimated by the market at about 85%.

The US Treasury market is closed today, but their futures market is open and continued to rise. Judging by it, the yield of 10-year bonds is kept at the level of 2.88%; it has fallen 61 basis points since its June peak.

The yield on German 10-year government bonds, the eurozone benchmark, rose 10 basis points to 1.328%. Last week it was falling as investors began to buy protective bonds.

The US dollar slipped 0.06% to 104.99 against a basket of currencies, rebounding from recent 20-year highs driven by its defensive-currency status.

The euro rose 0.13% to 1.0442, off a recent five-year low of 1.0349. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade, and the euro could be supported if the central bank decides to raise it by half a point at once.

The Japanese yen also attracted defence-currency buyers late last week, pushing the dollar back to 135.48 yen from a 24-year high of 137.01, though it still gained 0.3% on the day.

A strong dollar and rising interest rates weigh on gold, which traded down 0.15% to $1,808 an ounce. It hit a six-month low of $1,784 last week.

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IFX Gertrude
07-06-2022, 10:53 AM
Zimbabwe's gold standard.

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At the end of this month, to try to tame inflation, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe will begin selling gold coins, thus providing a store of value for the country's declining currency and an alternative to the US dollar for the public.

The gold coin weighing 22 carats in one troy ounce will be called Mosi-oa-Tunya and will already be available from July 25.

Each coin will be assigned a serial number. After the purchase, the buyer takes possession of the coin and receives a certificate of ownership to the bearer. The buyer or the holder of the coin can transfer it to the bankers of his/her choice for safekeeping, and in this case a certificate of safe storage or a receipt will be issued.

According to the governor of the central bank, John Mangudya, gold coins can be bought for local currency, the US dollar and other foreign currencies.

The price will be set based on the international gold price and production costs.

Owners of gold coins will be able to exchange them for cash. Gold coins can also be used for transactional purposes and as collateral for loans.

According to the press release, the coins will be sold by Fidelity Gold Refinery, Aurex and local banks.

Rising inflation and currency devaluation have made life difficult for the Zimbabwean population. Annual inflation in the country was almost 192% in June.

The central bank of Zimbabwe was forced to more than double the discount rate from 80% to 200%, which was a new record.

Zimbabwe also announced plans to adopt the US dollar as legal tender for the next five years to stabilize the country's exchange rate. This is the second time in more than a decade that Zimbabwe has legalized the US dollar as legal tender.

According to the country's Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube: the government has announced its intention to maintain a multi-currency system based on the dual use of the US dollar and the Zimbabwean dollar.

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IFX Yvonne
07-07-2022, 01:07 PM
China and the USA

The confrontation between countries with the first and second economies of the world lasts for years and runs along a variety of lines from trade to intellectual property rights. Now Western sanctions against Russia have been added here, and Washington has directly warned Beijing about the consequences if they are violated. The United States has already blacklisted five Chinese companies last week, accusing them of supporting the Russian military-industrial base. However, at the same time, the American authorities say that China generally complies with the sanctions restrictions. The situation is quite slippery, especially amid statements about US President Joe Biden's plans to lift some restrictions on trade with China (introduced under Donald Trump). In addition, Beijing itself may fall under sanctions for aggression against fr. Taiwan, which China considers its territory. The relevant bill has already been submitted to the US Senate.

China and Investment

For more than four months, global markets have been operating in a changed reality and new standards. As the history of the last hundred days has shown, geopolitical events can become a threat to investments and indices, and very quickly. By the way, China has faced negative market movements and capital outflows before. In total (according to the Institute of International Finance, IIF), from January to March 2022, investors have already withdrawn more than $30 billion from China.

The main reasons for the outflow of capital were:
lockdowns due to COVID-19;
problems in the Chinese real estate sector;
rising yields on US Treasury bonds.

Moreover, according to the same IIF, there is "a perceived risk of investing in countries whose relations with the West are difficult." How much are investors willing to invest in stocks that may not be able to get out quickly if necessary?

China and COVID

In addition to fears of becoming a pariah of world markets in the event of political conflicts, the Chinese market is also under pressure from a zero tolerance policy for COVID. Lockdowns, testing and other restrictive measures have been introduced in Shanghai for several months now (after a new outbreak of the disease) and then in Beijing. As a result, many production processes and the operation of the world's largest port have slowed down. The real estate market is still depressed, consumer spending is weak, and businesses do not want to hire employees and invest because of COVID.

The quarantine also affected the work of shopping and entertainment centers, restaurants, etc. Last week, some breaks were introduced for residents and tourists, but on Tuesday Beijing again announced mass testing of most of its residents after an outbreak in a karaoke hall. Chinese President Xi Jinping said that it is better to bear the "temporary" economic costs of the "wartime" state than to "harm people's lives and health".

China and the world market

Meanwhile, many market experts believe that even in the event of political negativity, sanctions against China will be unlikely. The fact is that the size of its economy and markets is so large that it will cause much more harm to the West than, for example, the restrictions imposed on Russia.

For comparison:
China accounts for 40% of emerging market stock indices;
Before February 24, Russia accounted for 6.1% of benchmark debt.

The impact of sanctions against China on global financial markets will also be much greater.

China and economic growth

And although analysts believe that a precedent has already been set for restrictive and punitive sanctions, such a move against China looks more far-fetched than realistically feasible. However, even this risk deters investors. But not everyone. Last month alone, net inflows into China-listed equities totaled $11 billion. "Playing" on the side of China:

the size of its economy;

a huge amount of foreign money invested in Chinese enterprises.

Particularly contrasting amid recession fears in the West is that China is the only major economy in the world that promises a recovery in growth this year. In addition, according to some sources, to revive its economy, China is preparing to create a state infrastructure fund worth $74.69 billion in the third quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
07-09-2022, 05:07 AM
USD/JPY: Japanese yen shaken by assassination of Shinzo Abe

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The Japanese yen moved upwards slightly following first reports of an assassination attempt against former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. JPY reversed downwards almost immediately, but Abe's death could have some effect on the Japanese yen's performance.The yen spiked by 0.5% against the dollar at one point. US Treasury bonds also increased, as investors sought safe-haven assets.Analysts and economists have made a number of outlooks on JPY. Some claim a shift in BoJ's policy is likely, while others expect the event to have only a short-term effect on the markets. On Sunday, elections to the upper house of the Japanese parliament will be held.

What are the implications?
Former PM Abe was a well-known figure, very popular abroad and respected by investors. Abe pulled the strings of the Japanese economy from behind-the-scenes - he was the creator of the "Abenomics" economic policy. Abe's death might give an impression that the Bank of Japan could adopt a different monetary policy. If the BoJ abandons its stance on monetary easing, it would disappoint market players."Abe had been supporting Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda. The bank's policy could change as they would lose that backing," Tomoichiro Kubota, senior market analyst at Matsui Securities said."This may have an impact in the medium to long-term, and the markets will see a considerable appreciation of the yen and a decline in stock prices," he added.The yen has shown a safe haven bid today, as political risks had an additional premium ahead of the weekend election. There may be sympathetic support for the Liberal Democratic Party at the election. Given the lack of details, JGB market players are likely to take a wait-and-see stance.At this point, it is unclear whether the yen would extend its upside momentum or not. The fact that Abe was a former PM could prove key, limiting the market reaction.JPY remained in the trend channel in the run-up to the release of US non-farm payrolls. The US payroll data could seriously affect the yen's performance.

Will non-farm payrolls shake up JPY?
Previously, US non-farm payroll data was one of the most anticipated data releases, However, market reaction to this data could not be as strong as before, as the Fed focuses on fighting inflation.Nevertheless, the NFP report could be a market driver, as investors still see it as a benchmark for the US economy. Economists expected the US economy to create 275,000 jobs in June, down from 390,000 in May. Investors could interpret weak NFP data as a signal of an economic slowdown, putting pressure on USD/JPY.

What will save the yen?
Up until this point, the Bank of Japan continued to stand by its monetary easing policy. Due to interest rate hikes in the US and around the world, JPY lost 15% against USD this year. The Japanese currency also retreated against a wider basket of currencies, falling to the lowest levels since the 1970s.Many traders think the monetary policy divergence was the main reason for JPY's slump. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda claims Japan does not have to hike interest rates to the extent shown by the Fed, thanks to low inflation in the country.

There is a lot of speculation on whether traders should take advantage of the slump and go long on JPY. Unforeseen global developments could at some point seriously drive up the yen's defensive bid. As market players give contrasting recommendations, some even question JPY's weakness and whether it needs support or not. There are reasons to believe that it is necessary.

So what can push the yen upwards?
JPY has been sliding down due to fundamental factors and not market speculation. A reassessment of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan would increase the yield of Japanese government bonds, decreasing the gap between Japanese and American interest rates. This would boost the yen in the short term amid US Treasury yields approaching their peak. Lifting travel restrictions for foreign tourists would add additional support for JPY.

Currently, USD/JPY is likely to be highly volatile in the future. A steady upward trend for JPY would require fundamental changes of trade flow patterns, as well as significant policy adjustments that would go beyond economic aspects.

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IFX Gertrude
07-12-2022, 01:36 AM
Major European stocks rise mostly by 0.10-1.34%

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Major European stocks rose mostly by 0.10-1.34%. Only the Spanish IBEX 35 declined by 0.27%. All other indices increased. The British FTSE 100 gained the least. It went up only 0.1%. Germany's DAX is the top gainer, adding 1.34%. France's CAC 40 advanced by 0.44% and Italy's FTSE MIB rose by 1%. The STOXX Europe 600 index was up 0.51%, ending positive for the third consecutive session.

Strong data on US unemployment partly contributed to investors' positive sentiment. According to this data, the US economy is on the verge of recession. It added 372,000 jobs in June. Meanwhile, analysts forecasted that the number of jobs would grow by 265,000-268,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6% compared to May.

European stock indices advanced despite traders' growing concerns about a possible economic downturn due to severe measures of global central banks to combat inflation.

Nevertheless, the latest statistical data show that the EU economic situation is deteriorating. The key reason for it is a sharp increase in energy prices, gas in particular, due to the reduction in Russia's energy supplies.

An economic slowdown is most likely amid the ECB's plans to raise interest rates. Moreover, the economic slowdown may last for several months.

Next week, US and EU companies will publish their corporate reports for the second quarter of 2022. However, many economists predict that they will worsen their outlook on major indexes.

Shares of Commerzbank AG (+ 7.9%), Societe Generale (+ 2.4%), Deutsche Bank (+ 2.7%), as well as Credit Agricole (+2.1%) and BNP Paribas (+2%) were among the major gainers of the STOXX Europe 600 index.

Volkswagen AG announced that it would plan to invest more than 20 billion euros in a new program to manufacture batteries for electric cars by 2030. Later, its shares rose by 5.1%. Porsche Automobil Holding SE stocks also went up, gaining 6.1%.

Shares of Electricite de France SA added 5.6% after the announcement of the company's nationalization and the suitable candidate for the position of CEO.

The major reason why Uniper shares rose by 0.6% was the company's call for aid to the German government.

Moreover, shares of oil and gas companies gained: OMV AG added 6.6% and Orron Energy AB went up 6.4%.

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IFX Gertrude
07-13-2022, 01:39 AM
The euro is in a deep depression. Is it a dead end?

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The European currency is frantically looking for a way out of the current situation, when the decline persists, and parity with the dollar looms on the horizon. At the same time, the US currency remains in an upward trend, fueled by the interest of investors seeking to withdraw into the USD amid the possible onset of a recession.

At the beginning of trading on Tuesday, July 12, the euro was balancing near a 20-year low, steadily approaching parity with the dollar. Experts believe that the main reason for this phenomenon is the growing fears about the energy crisis, which can plunge Europe into recession. Against this background, the actions of the Federal Reserve, which continues to aggressively tighten the monetary policy in order to curb inflation, contrast sharply with the indecisiveness of the European Central Bank.

According to Trading Economics analysts, the euro has updated its low against the greenback over the past 20 years. The single currency lost about 1.2% on Monday, July 11, dropping to 1.0067. In the future, the fall continued. On the morning of Tuesday, July 12, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0011, breaking another anti-record.

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The euro reached new lows on Monday, remaining under pressure against the dollar. According to preliminary estimates, the strengthening of the euro is unlikely in the second half of 2022, since the European economy may suffer a technical recession. According to analysts of the National Bank of Canada, in the near future, the euro will remain "at a level close to the bottom."

The improvement of the situation for EUR is possible with the stabilization of energy prices, experts are certain. Currently, the single currency is suffering from a sharp rise in energy prices. The situation is complicated by the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe and rising inflation in the eurozone. These factors are steadily pushing the euro to parity with the dollar, that is, to the level of 1.0100.

The second half of 2022 does not imply the formation of conditions suitable for strengthening the euro. According to experts, the European economy is closer than ever to a burst of technical recession. In the near future, the EUR will remain at a low level, analysts summarize.

Against this background, the US currency is strengthening its position, overtaking its rival in the EUR/USD pair and bringing the probability of parity closer. On Wednesday, July 13, the markets are expecting reports for June on inflation in the US and Germany. According to analysts, annual inflation in Germany slowed to 7.6% in June (from the previous 7.9%). As for the preliminary calculations about the United States, last month consumer prices increased by 8.8% year-on-year. Recall that this figure was 8.6% in May.

Confirmation of this scenario means that inflation in the US remains at the highest level in the last 40 years. At the same time, a weaker consumer price index will slow down the potential fall of the EUR/USD pair to parity. However, a postponement is possible only until the European Central Bank decides on the rate, that is, until the meeting next Thursday, July 21.

Most analysts agree that further acceleration of inflation contributes to an increase in the key rate in the United States (by another 75 bps). At the same time, decisive action is also likely from the ECB, which is prone to procrastination in this matter. The course of tightening monetary policy taken by the Fed will provide additional support to the greenback and increase pressure on the euro.

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IFX Gertrude
07-14-2022, 01:22 AM
Asian markets advance slightly on Wednesday

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Asian stock indexes increased slightly on Wednesday. The S&P/ASX 200 edged up by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Composite rose by 0.95%. The Shanghai Composite and the Nikkei 225 gained 0.36% and 0.41% respectively. The Hang Seng Index advanced by 0.71%, while the KOSPI increased by 0.73%.

Indexes in the Asia-Pacific region entered a slight correction following an earlier slump triggered by fears of a new wave of COVID-19 in the region. China has re-imposed quarantine measures, while South Korea reports an increase in coronavirus infections.

New lockdowns could weigh down on Asia-Pacific economic growth.

Traders also noted policy decisions by the main central banks, which are striving to bring soaring inflation under control. The Bank of Korea has increased the interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.25% from 1.75%, matching market expectations. Economists see the South Korean regulator hike the rate further in the near future.

South Korean stocks increased slightly, with LG Electronics, Inc. and Samsung Electronics, Co. gaining 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.

On the S&P/ASX 200, the best performing stock was Megaport, Ltd, which jumped by 6.5%. St. Barbara, Ltd. rose by 4.7%, while Pointsbet Holdings, Ltd. increased by 5%.

Investors also awaited the release of US CPI data. Inflation in the US was projected to increase to 8.8% in June, up from 8.6% in May.

Rising inflation would boost expectations of further monetary tightening by the Fed. However, it can also indicate that inflation has peaked amid falling crude oil prices. Market players are wary of higher interest rates weighing down on the global economy.

According to the latest statistic data, China's exports increased by 13.2% year-on-year over the past 6 months. Imports rose by 4.8%.

On the Hang Seng Index, Haidilao International Holding, Ltd. increased by 6%, while JD.com, Inc. and Sands China, Ltd. rose by 4.6% and 3.8% respectively. Shares of Tianqi Lithium, Corp. dived by 10% in their market debut.

On the Nikkei 225, the best-performing stock was Toho, Co., which climbed by 6.1%. The movie theater company's net revenue surged by 72% in the first quarter thanks to a rise in theater visitors.

Tokyo Electric Power Co Holdings Inc. increased by 5.6%, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. gained 2.9%, Honda Motor Co., Ltd. rose by 2.6%, and SoftBank Group, Corp. advanced by 2.4%.

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IFX Gertrude
07-15-2022, 02:02 AM
Dollar: fireworks of growth and inflationary confrontation

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The US currency once again took advantage of rising inflation, soaring after the release of the consumer data index (CPI) in the US. However, "skimming the cream" after an inflationary turn, the dollar risks sinking in the medium and long-term planning horizons.

According to reports from the US Department of Labor, the inflation rate measured by the consumer price index (CPI) has soared to the highest in four decades. By the end of June, it reached 9.1% year-on-year, demonstrating the most significant increase since 1981. Recall that this indicator did not exceed 8.6% in May. At the same time, the expanded inflation indicator in the United States increased by 1.3%, which is the highest level since 2005. This indicator reflects the increase in prices for gasoline, housing and food.

Against this background, the US currency showed an incredible rise, sharply overtaking the euro in the EUR/USD pair. In the current situation, the euro sank by 0.3%, reaching 1.0004. As a result, the dollar, having tested another high, returned to parity with the euro after a short-term breakthrough. On Wednesday, July 13, the single currency fell to the level of 0.9998 for the first time since December 2002. Then the euro fell by 0.39% on the morning of Thursday, July 14, reaching 1.0020. Later, the EUR/USD pair traded at 0.0023, unsuccessfully trying to get out of the price hole.

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The sharp spurt of the dollar amid the rise in consumer prices was accompanied by a violation of parity on the part of the euro. After the release of US inflation data, the euro slipped below the parity level in the EUR/USD pair. According to analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the parity of both currencies, settled at 0.9900, remains the lower limit for the EUR/USD pair. In the future, currency strategists expect consolidation to come in tandem.

Movements in the EUR/USD pair are taking place amid rapidly growing inflation, which has accelerated significantly after reaching a high over the past 40 years. Further strengthening of inflation increases the risk of an aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve. According to analysts, this will trigger a recession in the near future. At the same time, concerns about the recession provide significant support to the greenback.

According to Rafael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, extremely high inflation leaves the US central bank no choice in raising interest rates, which is likely to be resolved positively. This statement was supplemented by Wells Fargo analysts, explaining that the Fed will need several monthly inflation indicators to make a final decision on the rate. Regarding the June consumer price index (CPI), experts expected that it "will be hot, but this report just burns." Recall that consumer price inflation in the United States outstripped already inflated expectations, soaring by 1.3%. In annual terms, prices rose by 9.1%, which is a new cyclical high.

According to experts, a steady increase in prices for basic goods, recorded for two months, is extremely undesirable for the Fed. The central bank seeks to weaken core inflation in the consumer goods segment amid a rapid rise in the cost of food and energy. However, progress in this matter is minimal so far.

In such a situation, the greenback was the winner, drawing strength from the unwinding of the inflationary spiral. However, there is a walk on thin ice here: in the long term, the USD risks to sink significantly. At the moment, the dollar feels confident, demonstrating its importance to the world. The recent aggressive USD rally indicates that the US currency acted as a shield for the population of the United States suffering from extremely high inflation.

In the current situation, the purchasing power of American imports is increasing. Note that a strong dollar provides protection from inflation in the form of cheaper imports. However, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the strengthening USD adds risks for the Fed, as a strong national currency makes it difficult for the central bank to cool demand. Such a situation provokes further tightening of the monetary policy or leads to stagflation. Recall that with stagflation, high inflation persists, but economic growth slows down significantly.

Another important factor undermining the strength of the dollar in the EUR/USD pair remains the cardinal difference in the monetary strategies of the Fed and the European Central Bank. This year, the US central bank has raised rates by 1.50%, and the European one is still in thought, although inflation in the eurozone is also breaking records. The gap between the Fed and ECB rates will grow after the June consumer price index in the United States showed a new 40-year high. At the same time, experts do not rule out that this month the ECB will begin its rate hike cycle, but with a smaller step 0.25%.

In the long term, the strengthening of the greenback will contribute to further tightening of financial conditions. Against this background, the Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, Morgan Stanley emphasizes. As a result, a strong dollar increases the risk of a recession in the United States, which many investors consider inevitable.

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IFX Gertrude
07-15-2022, 09:23 AM
Gold cannot withstand the onslaught of a strong dollar

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Gold is falling in price on Thursday amid a rising dollar. Judging by the rise in US currency quotes, investors reacted with enthusiasm to record inflation data in the US.

So, in the morning hours of the European trading session, the price of the August gold futures on the New York Comex exchange fell by 0.52% to $1,726.45 per troy ounce. By 14:50 GMT, the quotes had already fallen by 2.23% to $1,696.85. Silver by this time managed to decline by 5.61%, to $18,117.

At one point the August gold futures were at $1,704.28.

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The dollar index, or its exchange rate against a basket of six other currencies, rose 0.96% today, reaching 109.03 points. A stronger dollar makes gold less affordable when buying in a different currency. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is 2.982%. The yield curve of 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds remains inverted and the most inverted over the past 22 years. This indicates an approaching economic recession.

In addition, another inflation report was published on Thursday, which made a lot of noise and caused a storm of emotions among traders. According to the data, in June, annual inflation in the United States rose to 9.1% in annual terms (it was at the level of 8.6% in May). This June figure was the highest in the United States since November 1981.

Obviously, in this scenario, the Federal Reserve is forced to keep its finger on the pulse of aggressive tightening of monetary policy. According to the CME Group, almost 82% of analysts are confident that at the July Fed meeting the discount rate will be significantly increased immediately by 100 basis points, that is, to the level of 2.5-2.75%. By the way, before these data were released, about 91% predicted a rate increase of only 75 basis points. It just so happened that the increase in the US rate (and even expectations of its increase) has a very beneficial effect on the exchange rate of the US national currency, but for the demand for gold, this news can be called negative.

A significant difference in interest rates in large countries (they are higher in the US) leads to the spread of the so-called Carry Trade, when international traders and institutions exchange their own currencies for possession of the US dollar. As history shows, this phenomenon can persist for quite a long time, which once again will only strengthen the dollar.

The strong drop in crude oil futures prices this week is also a factor reducing the prospects for gold. NYMEX futures dropped overnight to the lowest level in the last three months $93.24 per barrel. January crude oil futures are trading at $84 per barrel. This indicates that the market is confident that crude oil prices will decline in the coming months. The fall in the cost of crude oil contributes to a decrease in the value of assets in other commodity markets. Such a noticeable weakening of the commodity sector is an important early sign that inflationary pressure has already reached its peak.

So, we are seeing an increase in bond yields, a rise in the dollar, while a noticeable drop in crude oil prices. Obviously, these are all clearly bearish elements that are working against bulls in the metals market today. In addition, investors' fears about the recession in the United States are growing stronger and there is a decline in consumer and commercial demand for metals.

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IFX Gertrude
07-19-2022, 01:49 AM
Asian markets close higher on Monday

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Asia-Pacific markets broadly advanced on Monday. The S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.80%, while other indexes gained 1.50% or more. The Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite increased by 1.49% and 1.48%, respectively. The KOSPI went up by 1.65%, while the Hang Seng Index climbed by 2.64%. Japanese stock exchanges were closed today, however the Nikkei 225 edged up by 0.54% on Friday.Asian markets followed US indexes, which finished Friday in positive territory. American stock indexes gained about 2% on Friday thanks to strong statistic data which eased recession fears among market players. However, there is still a possibility of a 100 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.The upsurge of COVID-19 infections in China is putting pressure on the upside potential of Asian indexes. New quarantine measures threaten to affect economic recovery, increasing the possibility of a recession in China.However, the markets found support in statements by Chinese officials that the country has enough financial resources and options to maintain economic stability in the country. The People's Bank of China has injected 12 billion yuan into the financial system via a seven-day reverse repurchase agreement.On the Hang Seng Index, the best performing stocks were Country Garden Services Holdings, Co., Ltd. (+7.2%), Meitua (+6.4%), and Country Garden Holdings, Co., Ltd., (+6.3%).Chinese oil stocks also went up, with CNOOC, Ltd. increasing by 4.5% and China Petroleum & Chemical, Corp. advancing by 4.1%. Shares of Alibaba Group Holding edged up by 0.8%.On the KOSPI, Samsung Electronics, Co. rose by 2.7%, while LG Electronics, Inc. increased by 1.6%.On the S&P/ASX 200, BHP Group, Ltd. and Rio Tinto, Ltd. gained 1.8% and 1.9% respectively. Shares of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, Ltd. declined by 1.3% after the company announced it was set to buy Suncorp Bank for 4.9 billion Australian dollars or $3.3 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
07-19-2022, 06:11 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD for July 19, 2022

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220719/analytics62d64701cdc70_source!.jpg

EUR/USD tested the channel support line at 0.9952 which was just above our ideal target at 0.9902. This could be enough to fulfil the target of wave C and 2 and set the stage for wave 3 higher. The expected impulsive rally in wave 3 should ultimately break above the peak of wave 1 at 1.6038.

To confirm that wave 2 has indeed completed and wave 3 is in motion, we will need a break above minor resistance at 1.0220 and more importantly above resistance at 1.0615.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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IFX Gertrude
07-20-2022, 12:03 AM
Bitcoin steadily rises, but experts see downsurge ahead

Bitcoin went into an upward correction early on Tuesday, reaching $21,793 at the time of writing.

According to CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours BTC reached an intraday low of $21,190 and an intraday high of $22,795.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220719/analytics62d678d050669_source!.jpg

During the trading session, bitcoin rallied and jumped 7.5% to $22,306 in several hours, surpassing $22,000 for the first time since June 8.

However, despite the strong upward movement of the past two days, the bear market still continues for bitcoin, analysts note. The leading currency needs to break above $30,000 to end its downtrend.

Altcoin market
Ethereum, the leading competitor to BTC, has also advanced. At the time of writing, ETH gained 8.12% over the past day and rose to $1,527.

Last week, Ethereum climbed by 20%. ETH has jumped by 47% since the beginning of July, but remains below its all-time high of November 2021 by 71%.

At the end of last week, ETH surged upwards by 12% to $1,300 following an announcement by one of the project's developers that the transition to the proof-of-stake algorithm could occur as early as mid-September.

Out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, most coins advanced yesterday, except for XRP and several stablecoins.

The best-performing cryptocurrencies were Avalanche (+12.07%), Dogecoin (+5.19%), and Binance Coin (+4.4%).

According to CoinGecko, the best performing coin out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap was Ethereum Classic, which jumped by 22.8%. The worst performing currency was Lido DAO, which tumbled by 15.4%.

Contrasting outlooks by crypto experts

According to CryptoQuant, a BTC sell-off by miners in the future could push bitcoin's price down significantly.

CryptoQuant's analysts noted that June's downward correction forced miners to dump their BTC holdings to minimize losses and lower the overall risks. The analysts stated that miners are now in a distribution phase and warned that growing pressure caused by the miners' capitulation could push the price well below the $20,000 mark in the near future.

Matthew Kimmell, digital asset analyst at CoinShares, also stated that troubles plaguing the crypto mining sector could cause a downturn for leading digital assets. As mining companies go bankrupt, the prices of mining rigs could also slump, putting extra pressure on crypto assets.

An analysis by Glassnode said the capitulation in the crypto market would likely continue amid ongoing severe financial stress. Rising pressure in the digital asset market would send bitcoin below $20,000.Some experts, such as Nassim Nicholas Taleb, former trader and author of "Black Swan", refused to give any predictions on when the bear market would end. "The journalistic expression 'crypto winter' is highly deceiving; it implies seasonality and, perhaps worse, a reversion to some trend. No, your winter may not be transitory, and what you call winter may degrade into a permanent & inescapable ice age fraught with extinctions," Taleb claimed.

An outlook by Grayscale Investments was more bullish on crypto and bitcoin and particular.

The investment company's analysts claimed the bear market could last for another 250 days, citing their estimates of trend cycles in the crypto market. Grayscale stated the downtrend was a regular market event that repeats every several years, and that it presented a good buying opportunity.

Investment advisor Edward Dowd said bitcoin could soon become an integral part of any investment portfolio, despite the repeated turmoil in the market. Dowd added that BTC could also surpass gold thanks to its decentralized nature and transparency.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, claimed bitcoin would rise swiftly after touching the bottom. Hayes sees the Federal Reserve begin printing trillions of dollars in the future, which would then push BTC up.

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IFX Gertrude
07-21-2022, 12:15 AM
EUR/USD. Trapped in inflated expectations: ECB July meeting preview

The European Central Bank will sum up the results of its next - July - meeting on Thursday. This is by no means a "passing" meeting: for the first time in the last 11 years, the ECB will raise interest rates.

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By itself, the fact that there will be an increase in the rate has already been resolved, the intrigue remains regarding the magnitude of this increase. In addition, traders are interested in further prospects for tightening monetary policy amid existing risks for the debt market. In other words, the results of tomorrow's meeting will surely provoke strong volatility for the EUR/USD pair. The only question is, on whose mill will the water be poured. If the central bank surprises with an ultra-hawkish tone, the pair could not only test the 1.0300 resistance level, but also consolidate in the area of the 3rd figure. Otherwise, the euro will again be under pressure throughout the market. In my opinion, current market expectations are somewhat overstated, so there is a possibility that the ECB will not live up to its hopes on Thursday.

It is worth noting that a few weeks before the July meeting, traders actually resigned themselves to the fact that the ECB would gradually and measuredly tighten monetary policy. Representatives of the ECB have repeatedly said that it is impossible to sharply raise the rate to curb inflation - primarily because of the risks for the debt market. Just last week, a member of the Board of Governors of the central bank, Olli Rehn, announced that at the July meeting the rate would be increased by 25 basis points. Similar forecasts have been voiced by ECB President Christine Lagarde and some other members of the Board of Governors.


With such a wide-ranging and unequivocal preview, the market has grown accustomed to the idea of a 25-point advance in July. All attention was focused mainly on the prospects for further steps by the ECB, primarily in the context of the September meeting.

However, the day before yesterday, the market was stirred up by journalists from the news agency Reuters. Referring to their anonymous sources in the ECB, they said that the option of a 50-point rate hike is still on the agenda. At the same time, agency reporters quite recently (July 15) interviewed more than 60 economists about the possible outcomes of the July meeting. 62 out of 63 experts surveyed unanimously stated that the central bank will increase the rate by 25 points. In this case, economists reflected market expectations, which until recently prevailed among traders. However, insider information from Reuters, as they say, mixed all the cards.

Amid these hawkish rumors, the euro has significantly strengthened its position against the dollar. Bulls were able to move away from the parity level by more than 200 points, updating a two-week price high on Wednesday, rising to 1.0274. But, in my opinion, this is a Pyrrhic victory for the EUR/USD bulls, which could have negative consequences for the euro.

In fact, EUR/USD bulls are repeating the mistake of the dollar bulls, who were inspired last week by rumors that the Federal Reserve could raise rates by 100 points at once following the results of the July meeting. Such a hawkish scenario was supported by Fed spokeswoman Mary Daly, who, however, does not have a vote in the Committee this year. Nevertheless, the hawkish rumors did their job: the EUR/USD pair again renewed the 20-year price low, plunging below the parity level, to the level of 0.9953. But as soon as other Fed officials (primarily those with voting rights) criticized the idea of a 100-point increase, the greenback weakened across the market. The dollar literally slipped out of the blue and allowed opponents to seize the initiative.

EUR/USD bulls may find themselves in a similar situation on Thursday. After all, now a 25-point increase in the rate is no longer the base scenario, but a "conditional dove" scenario, the implementation of which will put pressure on the euro. To strengthen the single currency, the ECB needs to either raise the rate by 50 points on Thursday or announce such a step in the context of the September meeting in plain text. Any doubts of the central bank will be interpreted against the euro.

Also on the ECB's agenda is the issue of a possible uncontrolled expansion of spreads between the yields of government bonds of the EU core countries and the southern states of the bloc. Back in June, the ECB announced the development of a new tool to limit fragmentation in the eurozone. According to Bloomberg, at its July meeting, the central bank will present an unlimited bond buying tool that will help markets "adjust to sharper and faster interest rate hikes than previously thought." However, if the representatives of the ECB show excessive caution in tightening monetary policy, this fundamental factor will be ignored by the market.

Thus, the single currency found itself in a kind of trap of inflated expectations ahead of the ECB meeting. In my opinion, it will be difficult for ECB members to realize the expected hawkish scenario, even despite a record increase in headline inflation. It is also necessary to take into account that the core consumer price index in the eurozone (excluding volatile energy and food prices) unexpectedly slowed down its growth on an annualized basis, reaching 3.7% instead of the planned growth of 3.9%. And German inflation last month showed the first signs of a slowdown. All these factors reduce the likelihood that the ECB will decide on a 50-point rate hike.

Consequently, EUR/USD bulls are forced to rely only on an unexpected "hawkish impulse" of the ECB. To put it bluntly, this is an unlikely scenario.

In anticipation of such important events of a fundamental nature, it is advisable to stay out of the market. Amid a general weakening of the US currency and a (possible) weakening of the euro, it is reasonable to wait for the results of the ECB's July meeting: the pendulum will swing in one direction on Thursday, determining the further vector of movement for EUR/USD.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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IFX Gertrude
07-22-2022, 12:00 AM
Asian indicators show different directions

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220721/analytics62d925de54cfa_source!.jpg

The main indices of the Asia-Pacific region show different directions. Some indices are declining, among them the Chinese Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite, which lost 0.42% and 0.06% respectively, as well as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, which decreased by 1.35%. At the same time, other indices show a slight increase: the Australian S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.08%, the Japanese Nikkei 225 at 0.22%, and the Korean KOSPI at 0.71%.

A number of different reasons contributed to this ambiguous behavior of the Asia-Pacific indices: the deterioration of the situation with COVID-19 in China and the concerns about the possible economic recovery as a result.

Market participants reacted positively to the Bank of Japan's decision to leave the rate unchanged at -0.1%. However, the central bank's forecasts regarding the increase in GDP worsened somewhat: to 2.4% from 2.9% announced in April. As for the increase in inflation, expectations, on the contrary, increased to 2.3% from 1.9%.

At the same time, the country has seen an increase in imports of goods by 46.1%, which turned out to be higher than analysts' forecasts, who expected an increase in imports by 45.7%. Exports also increased (by 19.4%), which also exceeded expectations of 17.5%.

Of the companies included in the calculation of the Nikkei 225 index, Nikon, Corp. (+2.5%), GS Yuasa, Corp. (+2.4%), as well as Fujitsu, Ltd. (+2%) noted an increase in the value of securities.

Some support for the Asia-Pacific indices was provided by US indicators, which closed the day before with an increase of up to 1.5%. The growth of US indicators is primarily due to the good results of quarterly reporting of companies, especially among the technology sector.

Of the components of the Hang Seng Index, Country Garden Services Holdings, Co., Ltd. (-6.4%), Longfor Group Holdings, Ltd., (-5.3%), China Resources Land, Ltd. (-4.4%), as well as Haidilao International Holding, Ltd. (-2.2%) were marked by a drop in quotes.

The companies that form the basis of the calculation of the Korean KOSPI, on the contrary, showed an increase in the share price. Thus, Samsung Electronics, Co. securities gained 1.5%, and Kia Corp. at 0.5%.

The largest companies from Australia show a drop in quotes: BHP Group, Ltd. securities fell by 1.7%, and Rio Tinto. Ltd. by 2.8%.

While the price of Zip Co. shares rose by 13% after the announcement of the company's plans to optimize its operations in the international market for profit.

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IFX Gertrude
07-25-2022, 09:24 AM
The dollar remains the first violin in the EUR/USD pair, and the euro is afraid to make a mistake

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220725/analytics62de3fac69adf_source!.jpg

The beginning of this week once again gave the dollar confidence in its strength, which cannot be said about the euro. The latter expects to bounce back after a series of losses, but fears a new decline. Many experts believe that the euro has no room for error.

Currently, the greenback continues the difficult path to strengthening. On Monday, July 25, market participants are preparing for a sharp increase in interest rates in the US (by 75 bp to 2.25-2.5% per annum). This is expected to take place on Wednesday, July 27th. In the current situation, the market is dominated by the risks of a decline in economic growth, so investors once again go to safe assets, in particular, gold and the dollar.

The current economic situation is characterized by the greenback's rise against key world currencies, primarily the euro. On the morning of Monday, July 25, the latter sank a bit in anticipation of information about the business climate in Germany. According to preliminary calculations, this indicator fell to 90.5 points from the previous 92.3 points. Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0200, retreating from the previous session's closing level of 1.0210.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220725/analytics62de3fc15aff1_source!.jpg

The current situation negatively affects the exchange rate of the single currency. Last week, the European Central Bank raised its base deposit rate by 50 bp after eight years of negative interest rates. At the same time, the consensus forecast suggested an increase of only 25 bp. According to experts, the ECB's decision is due to concerns about further acceleration of inflation. Against this background, the risk of a possible recession, which was previously relevant, fades.

A further rate hike is planned by the ECB on September 8 this year. At the same time, the pace of monetary tightening by the ECB is very different from those of the Federal Reserve. According to analysts, this figure is significantly behind the results shown by other global central banks. Recall that last month the Fed raised the rate by 75 basis points and is now ready for similar actions.

According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, such a decision is explained by the need to combat galloping inflation, primarily with a large-scale increase in food and energy prices. We note that the target inflation rate is likely to exceed 2%, as inflation in 19 eurozone countries is approaching double digits. In the event of a serious shortage of gas in winter, a further increase in energy prices is possible, experts emphasize.

The ECB officials also agreed on additional assistance to major eurozone debtor countries, including Italy, and introduced a new bond purchase scheme (TPI). Its goal is to prevent an increase in the cost of borrowing for EU member states in the course of tightening the monetary policy of the central bank. When launching this tool, the ECB focuses on public sector bonds with maturities of 1-10 years.

In this situation, the ECB does not rule out a slight devaluation of the European currency. The bank believes that moderation will not hurt the euro. We note that this process is proceeding smoothly, despite the weak economic outlook for the eurozone amid dependence on energy imports.

The strengthening of the dollar contrasts sharply with the fluctuations of its opponent in the EUR/USD pair. According to analysts, the strengthening of the greenback is a pro-inflationary factor for the global economy. However, now a strong USD is not beneficial even to the American authorities, who are actively fighting inflation, which has exceeded 9%. At the same time, only the US authorities can stop the dollar's growth, experts are sure.

A strong US currency negatively affects the ability of developing countries to service their external debts, a large part of which is denominated in USD. In such a situation, their maintenance requires a large number of national currencies. A weak greenback allows the countries of emerging markets to repay their debts in time and in full and increase trade.

The current cycles of strengthening and weakening the dollar are confusing market participants. At the moment, the growth of the USD exchange rate is working to reduce inflation and cool the economy, following the current Fed strategy. In addition, the current situation works for the authority of the greenback, strengthening its position.

In the coming months, the dollar's growth will be uneven, with occasional technical rollbacks. However, the US authorities can stop it at any time. This is possible in the event of a sharp reversal of the current cycle of tightening monetary policy. However, the Fed is unlikely to take such measures amid raging inflation, experts believe.

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07-25-2022, 02:33 PM
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IFX Gertrude
07-26-2022, 08:25 AM
The euro raises its head, trying to knock the crown off the dollar

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The euro is looking for ways out of the price impasse, into which it has been driven by economic instability and recent parity with the American one. At the same time, the greenback remains the winner in the EUR/ USD pair, despite a short-term subsidence. The US currency was near multi-year highs on Tuesday, July 26, amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Recall that the central bank will hold a meeting on Wednesday, July 27, at which it is highly likely to increase the interest rate by 75 bp. This measure is necessary to curb the ever-growing inflation. If the Fed leaves the greenback in limbo after the meeting, then this will be the best option for the euro. However, such a scenario is unlikely, experts warn. One of the euro's trump cards against the dollar is the risk of an approaching recession in the United States, Rabobank currency strategists believe. The bank's specialists have revised the current forecasts for the EUR/USD pair downwards. Analysts believe that by the end of the summer, the single currency may fall to 0.9500 relative to the greenback. As for the planning horizon in the next six months, Rabobank expects the pair to recover to the level of 1.0500. The EUR/USD pair was cruising near 1.0227 on Tuesday, July 26,, recouping previous losses. According to preliminary calculations, another wave of weakening of the greenback is possible at the beginning of next year.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220726/analytics62df92f11202a_source!.jpg

Investors prefer safe assets in the current situation, primarily gold and USD. As a result, the latter is steadily rising in price. According to analysts, in anticipation of a downturn in the global economy, the demand for safe-haven assets is going through the roof. This provides impressive support for the dollar and reduces the euro's chances for further strengthening.

It is difficult for the euro to hold the gained positions amid the steadily growing greenback. The pain point for the euro, as well as for its rival in the EUR/USD pair, is galloping inflation. Recall that since the beginning of 2022, the single currency has dipped in relation to the greenback by 12%. At the same time, inflation in the euro area updated records for eight months: in June, price growth in the EU amounted to 8.6% year on year.

Some experts believe that the weakening of the euro is not an economic, but a political problem, due to the desire of the United States to dominate the world market. In this scenario, there is no place for a strong and independent Europe, whose currency is able to successfully compete with the dollar. "There is an exciting power play behind the current devaluation of the euro," said Feng Xiaohu, a columnist for the Chinese edition of Huanqiu Shibao. According to the expert, the euro's decline is due not only to economic factors. The political ambitions of the United States is in first place, since the euro is the main obstacle for the greenback, which prevents American authorities from "making profit from all over the world."

At the beginning of the week, experts recorded investors' flight from risk in the markets amid concerns about the onset of a global recession. Many analysts believe that the recession is the Fed's payment for curbing inflation, which has already accelerated to 9%. At the same time, market participants believe that the Fed will be able to take control of it. According to experts, there are signs of an impending recession in the US economy. However, they will not prevent the central bank from bringing the federal funds rate to a neutral level.

Many experts warn against misinterpretation of the coming recession in the United States, warning of its destructive power. According to Nouriel Roubini, one of the leading economists who predicted the financial crisis of 2008-2009, one should not count on a mild recession in the American economy. According to the analyst, it will be deep "amid a serious drop in GDP and debt and financial crises."

The growth of the key rate and the huge debts of the American economy, which have reached peak values, add fuel to the fire. At the same time, the debt burden of developed countries is growing, increasing the risks of stagflation, Roubini emphasizes. Recall that stagflation is a combination of an economic downturn with rising prices.

The current tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed and other central banks has a negative impact on the value of assets around the world. Most stock markets are experiencing a downturn, pulling the crypto industry with them. In such a situation, the US currency is the winner, justifying its status as a safe asset. According to the calculations of analysts at Standard Chartered Bank, almost 45% of the strength of the greenback is due to its status as a safe haven currency.

Despite the high probability of further strengthening, USD may decline in the coming weeks due to the Fed's current strategy regarding rates. In the current situation, the market has taken into account the entire cycle of tightening of the monetary policy in prices, but the major players continue to aggressively bet on the greenback's succeeding growth.

At the same time, representatives of the Fed note that they do not plan to raise the rate to 1.00%. The Fed intends to limit itself to an increase of 0.75%, which is fully taken into account in market prices. A potential rate hike of 1.00% will be a surprise for the market and will support the dollar, but such a scenario is unlikely. At the same time, the euro will try to maintain its recent upward momentum, not counting on a further decline in the greenback.

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IFX Gertrude
07-27-2022, 07:31 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.71%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220727/analytics62e0cee6df32c_source!.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.71%, the S&P 500 index fell 1.15%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 1.87%.

3M Company was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 6.63 points or 4.94% to close at 140.75. Quotes of McDonald's Corporation rose by 6.71 points (2.68%), closing trading at 257.09. Coca-Cola Co rose 1.02 points or 1.64% to close at 63.21. The biggest losers were Walmart Inc, which shed 10.04 points or 7.60% to end the session at 121.98.

Salesforce.com Inc was up 3.85% or 6.83 points to close at 170.46 while Nike Inc was down 3.73% or 4.08 points to close at 105. ,twenty.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were 3M Company, which rose 4.94% to 140.75, General Electric Company, which gained 4.61% to close at 71.51, and shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, which rose 4.36% to end the session at 78.92.

The biggest losers were Fortinet Inc, which shed 7.77% to close at 56.26. Shares of Walmart Inc lost 7.60% to end the session at 121.98. Quotes of Carnival Corporation decreased in price by 7.41% to 8.50.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 94.25% to hit 1.69, Pagaya, which gained 73.11% to close at 16.74, and Freight Technologies Inc, which rose 67.57% to end the session at 2.48.

The biggest losers were Revelation Biosciences Inc, which shed 51.39% to close at 0.49. Shares of Luokung Technology Corp lost 41.19% to end the session at 0.24. Quotes of Exela Technologies Inc decreased in price by 36.43% to 1.85.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of depreciated securities (1938) exceeded the number of closed in positive territory (1172), and quotes of 122 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,320 companies fell in price, 1,412 rose, and 242 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.69% to 24.69.

Gold futures for August delivery lost 0.21%, or 3.55, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI September futures fell 1.48%, or 1.43, to $95.27 a barrel. Brent oil futures for October delivery fell 0.71%, or 0.71, to $99.48 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.99% to hit 1.01, while USD/JPY edged up 0.15% to hit 136.87.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.67% to 107.07.

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IFX Gertrude
07-28-2022, 06:40 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.37%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220728/analytics62e1feb110da1_source!.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.37% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 rose 2.62% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 4.06%.

Shares of Microsoft Corporation led the way among the components of the Dow Jones index in today's trading, which gained 16.84 points (6.69%) to close at 268.74. Salesforce.com Inc rose 9.84 points or 5.77% to close at 180.30. Walmart Inc rose 4.61 points or 3.78% to close at 126.59.

The biggest losers were 3M Company, which shed 1.89 points or 1.34% to end the session at 138.86. The Travelers Companies Inc was up 1.90 points or 1.18% to close at 158.96, while Visa Inc Class A was down 2.02 points or 0.95% to close at mark 210.47.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Enphase Energy Inc, which rose 17.89% to hit 254.77, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc, which gained 14.70% to close at 1.00. as well as PayPal Holdings Inc, which rose 12.18% to end the session at 86.42.

The biggest losers were Sherwin-Williams Co, which shed 8.78% to close at 231.97. Shares of Garmin Ltd lost 8.72% to end the session at 93.56. Quotes of Teledyne Technologies Incorporated decreased in price by 7.01% to 372.01.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Blue Water Vaccines Inc, which rose 53.17% to 3.14, Cryptyde Inc, which gained 43.70% to close at 1.27, and also shares of QualTek Services Inc, which rose 37.78% to end the session at 1.35.

The biggest losers were ObsEva SA, which shed 75.40% to close at 0.40. Kalera PLC lost 20.77% to end the session at 2.48. Quotes Burcon NutraScience Corp fell in price by 18.06% to 0.59.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2573) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (519), while quotations of 108 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,854 companies rose in price, 916 fell, and 174 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 5.87% to 23.24.

Gold futures for August delivery added 0.86%, or 14.70, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for September delivery rose 3.35%, or 3.18, to $98.16 a barrel. Brent oil futures for October delivery rose 3.00%, or 2.98, to $102.44 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.84% to hit 1.02, while USD/JPY shed 0.30% to hit 136.51.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.68% to 106.31.

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IFX Gertrude
07-29-2022, 08:11 AM
USD tactics and strategy: we need to retreat in order to put the euro's vigilance to sleep

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220729/analytics62e37fbe15214_source!.jpg

At the end of this week, the US currency partially lost its position, giving way to the European one. However, some analysts believe that this is a clever tactical move on the dollar's part. The latter has to use a withdrawal strategy to distract the attention of the euro and give it a false sense of superiority.

According to experts, the greenback can afford to retreat, since its position in the global financial arena is quite strong. A short-term redistribution of forces in favor of the euro will not prevent the USD from reaching new heights. Currently, the greenback has sunk a bit, but soon financial fortune will smile on it, experts believe.

A short-term pullback of the US currency occurred after the Federal Reserve meeting, following which the central bank increased the interest rate by 75 bps, to 2.25-2.50% per annum. This decision coincided with market expectations, although some feared aggressive steps on the part of the Fed, namely raising the rate by 100 bps. However, the central bank prefers to move gradually, believing that in this way it will be able to control inflation.

At a press conference that took place after the central bank meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed readiness to further raise the rate if circumstances require it. According to Powell, the scale of the next hikes may be reduced in the event of a slowdown in inflation. According to Powell, as the monetary policy is further tightened and inflation is curbed, it is advisable to slow down the pace of the rate hike.

Market participants reacted positively to this information, considering that the central bank will limit itself to raising the rate by 50 bps at the September meeting. Note that the Fed currently adheres to the toughest strategy of raising rates over the past 40 years. Earlier, after the global financial crisis of 2008, the American economy was much harder to bear even a slight increase in rates. Now the situation has improved, despite its decline by 0.9% year-on-year and the decline in US GDP.

Against this background, the EUR/USD pair remained stable and was trading near 1.0220 on Thursday, July 28. The pair managed to maintain an upward momentum for a long time, which was occasionally interrupted. The EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0242 on Friday morning, July 29, significantly strengthening its positions. According to analysts, the pair is currently in a consolidation phase, and in the next few weeks it will remain in a wide range of 1.0100-1.0285.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220729/analytics62e37fd40e02b_source!.jpg

The euro made a sharp turn after the Fed meeting, taking advantage of the weakening of the greenback. This was due to the central bank's actions, which led to an increase in demand for high-yield assets, while politicians focused on curbing inflation. However, the euphoria in the markets did not last long, especially among euro bulls. Economic problems in the European Union, primarily related to gas supplies, put serious pressure on the euro. The cherry on the cake was the fall of the EU economic sentiment indicator. It should be noted that this indicator fell to 99 points in July, which is worse than the predicted 102 points. At the same time, the level of consumer confidence in the eurozone decreased to -27 from the previous -23.8.

An additional factor of pressure on the euro was the preliminary assessment of the German harmonized consumer price index. In July, this indicator showed an increase of 8.5% Y/Y, which is higher than the previous value of 8.2%. At the same time, the annual CPI of the eurozone was 7.5%. Against this background, the EUR/USD pair fell to a threatening low of 1.0113 ahead of the release of macro data from the US, but later managed to recover.

The US monetary authorities just published the first estimate of GDP for the second quarter, which did not meet market expectations. The reason is the contraction of the American economy by 0.9% in annual terms. According to current reports, US GDP has been declining for the second consecutive month. In such a situation, experts declare the onset of a technical recession.

Many economists are sure that at the moment the US economy is gripped by this kind of recession. However, the volume of decline in the American economy (by 0.6% over the past two quarters) is not so frightening compared to the European one. According to analysts, this failure is the result of budget cuts, not a consequence of higher rates. Recall that changes in monetary policy are not immediately noticeable, but their effect manifests itself in about six months. According to the results of the fourth quarter of 2022, you can see the results of current decisions, experts summarize.

In such a situation, the Fed is able to sharply slow down the pace of rate hikes and quickly move to easing the monetary policy. However, this is unlikely now. High inflation, which the central bank is struggling with, requires a tight monetary policy. If negative trends increase in the first quarter of 2023, the US economy may plunge into recession, analysts warn.

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IFX Gertrude
08-01-2022, 05:42 AM
Oil rises in price at the close of the trading session on Friday

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220801/analytics62e749d0c84a3_source!.jpg

As of 20:09 GMT+3, the price of September futures for Brent crude grew by 2.73% to $110.06, October futures - by 2.24% - to $104.11 per barrel, September futures for WTI by 2.82%, to $99.14. September Brent crude is trading above $110 a barrel for the first time since July 5.

Pressure on quotes is exerted by fears of a recession in the global economy and, accordingly, a decrease in demand for energy resources. At the same time, experts warn that the supply of oil on the market may be insufficient.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst, noted that oil prices are rising again amid reports that OPEC+ will leave production targets unchanged next month when they meet on Wednesday.

At the same time, since the beginning of the month, quotes have decreased by 4.5% for Brent and 6.6% for WTI. Demand concerns intensified in the markets amid recession risks.

Earlier Friday, Baker Hughes, an American oil and gas service company, released weekly data on the number of operating oil rigs in the US. In the week to July 29, their number increased by six units compared to the previous week and amounted to 605 units.

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IFX Yvonne
08-02-2022, 12:21 PM
Fiery yen: USD/JPY pair continues to inexorably fly into the abyss

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220802/analytics62e8be6f62044_source!.jpg

The US dollar reached another low against the Japanese yen at the beginning of Tuesday. It seems that the worst is yet to come: the technical picture is not in favor of the bulls for the USD/JPY pair.
These days, the Japanese currency is showing the longest growth against the dollar in six months. The rally of the JPY continues for the fifth consecutive session. During this time, the yen rebounded by more than 6% from the 24-year low, which was reached against the dollar in mid-July. The greenback fell against the yen by 0.5% at the beginning of today's trading, to the level of 130.595. This is the lowest level in almost two months.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220802/analytics62e8bf42492a9_source!.jpg

One of the catalysts for the yen is the news about the possible visit of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the island of Taiwan. Official Beijing said that this visit, which poses a threat to China's independence, could undermine the already tense relations between America and China. Concerns about the consequences of the upcoming visit of a member of the US Congress to Taiwan put pressure on Asian currencies (Chinese yuan and Taiwanese dollar), which led to an influx of funds into the safe yen. Also, the Japanese currency continues to strengthen on the general weakness of the dollar. The greenback index dropped to 105.03 points on Tuesday morning, which is a monthly low. The greenback lost its growth momentum last week when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 bps for the second time in a row. Strong pressure on the dollar was exerted by the reduction in expectations of aggressive rates of interest rate hikes by the Fed. The situation was aggravated by weak US GDP data published last week. Investors fear that the contraction of the US economy for the second quarter in a row will force the Fed to slow down the pace of tightening its monetary policy. The reassessment of expectations of a Fed rate hike led to a sharp drop in the yield of 10-year US government bonds. So, at the beginning of Tuesday, the indicator plunged to the lowest level since April of 2.53%. Meanwhile, the spread between the real yield of 10-year US bonds and their Japanese equivalents has decreased to 0.80% from more than 1.5% in mid-June. Recall that the yield gap that formed this year between the United States and Japan due to monetary divergence contributed to the rapid fall of the Japanese currency. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has fallen by about 13% against the dollar and remains the worst among the Group of 10 currencies so far. Nevertheless, many analysts are confident in the yen's further ascent against the US dollar. The continuation of the bearish trend of the USD/JPY pair is indicated by the technical picture. Now the asset is sharply declining after the breakdown of the ascending wedge on the daily scale. This usually indicates a loss of momentum in a bullish trend. In addition, for the first time in 11 months, the pair fell to almost a 100-day exponential moving average at 130.29, and the 20-EMA at 135.26 turned downward. All this reinforces expectations of a fall in the dollar against the yen. The relative strength index (RSI), which has settled in the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, also indicates a further decline in the USD/JPY pair.

IFX Gertrude
08-03-2022, 05:46 AM
American stock indices fell during trading

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220803/analytics62e9ed759454f_source!.jpg

Investors are also evaluating a new batch of quarterly reports from major US companies. The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 16:45 GMT+3 fell by 0.93% - to 32493.3 points.

The leader of the decline in the index, in addition to Caterpillar, are papers Boeing Co., falling by 2.6%. Only 5 out of 30 companies included in the indicator calculation are trading in positive territory, including Amgen Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc.

Standard & Poor''s 500 has dropped 0.57% since the market opened to 4095.17 points.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4% to 12,319.41 points.

Shares of Uber Technologies jumped 13.7%. The taxi and food delivery company posted a loss again in the second quarter of 2022, although its revenue more than doubled, beating analysts' forecasts.

Papers Activision Blizzard rise in price by 0.2%. The American video game developer in April-June reduced revenue for the third quarter in a row, but the figure was higher than the market forecast.

Quotes of papers Marriott International increase by 0.5%. The operator of the world's largest hotel chain posted a 61% increase in net income in the second quarter on the back of a recovery in the travel industry, with adjusted figures and revenue well above expectations.

Shares of Cowen Inc. rise in price by 7.6%. Canadian Toronto-Dominion Bank has agreed to acquire a US investment bank in a $1.3 billion deal as it continues to expand its presence in the US market.

Capitalization of Caterpillar falls by 5.2%, the company is the leader of decline in the Dow Jones index. The manufacturer of equipment for road construction and mining in the second quarter increased its net profit by 18.4%, but the revenue was slightly worse than experts' expectations.

Market value of KKR & Co Inc. decreases by 4.7%. The American investment firm posted a net loss in the second quarter of 2022 and cut its distributable earnings (cash that can go towards paying dividends) by about 9%.

DuPont de Nemours Inc. fell 1.7%. The American chemical company posted a sharp increase in its second-quarter net income and a 7% increase in revenue, but its third-quarter guidance disappointed investors.

The price of Arconic securities decreases by 7.4%. The American producer of aluminum products in the second quarter of 2022 received a net profit and increased revenue better than market expectations, but worsened its forecast for the year.

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IFX Gertrude
08-04-2022, 08:57 AM
Pound signed the death warrant. And the policy of the Bank of England has nothing to do with it.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220804/analytics62eb6f093e072_source!.jpg

The main topic of the day is the increase in interest rates in the UK. If the Bank of England goes on the biggest rise since 1995, the pound will skyrocket. However, its euphoria will be short-lived. Why?

BoE is not omnipotent

Today, the British central bank once again intends to raise interest rates. This will be the sixth increase since December last year.

Recall that at each of its previous meetings on monetary policy, the BoE made a minimum step of 25 bps.

The market is now expecting more hawkish action from the BoE as UK inflation continues to break records. In June, it accelerated to a 40-year high of 9.4%, and so far there is no sign of a peak.

The situation is also aggravated by gloomy forecasts for further price hikes. Many economists are predicting inflation to rise to double digits this year.

In June, the BoE said it would act more decisively if inflationary pressures in the country become more sustainable.

According to analysts, now the BoE has no choice but to fulfill its promise, especially since its colleagues are not dragging their feet.

Since the beginning of the year, the US Federal Reserve has already raised rates four times, and twice - by 75 bps at once.

The European Central Bank only started tightening last month, but its first step was to raise the rate by half a percentage point.

Compared to other central banks, the BoE's policy looks more dovish now. This weakens the pound, as a result of which the cost of living in the country continues to increase.

In order to prevent inflation from taking root in the British economy, the BoE is likely to be forced to go for the largest rate hike in 27 years.

According to many currency strategists, a rise of 50 bps to 1.75% could significantly strengthen the pound's position against the dollar.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220804/analytics62eb6f6d5da96_source!.jpg

GBP/USD is expected to rise above 1.2170 today after the BoE meeting. However, the pound's rise will be short-lived.

The BoE, which launched the tightening mechanism much earlier than other central banks, delayed the process too much, and this allowed the inflation monster to become very strong.

Now, to defeat the monster, a 50 bps increase won't be enough. Inflation will not start to disappear, as if by magic, and BoE can no longer afford a larger increase in the current situation, when the country's economy is on the verge of a recession.

Far from beautiful

The threat of a recession that hangs over the UK economy is the main argument that the BoE will not risk raising rates by 50 bps at today's meeting.

Some experts expect the BoE to continue to act cautiously, as it has been extremely pessimistic in its latest economic growth forecasts. Recall that the central bank does not expect the UK economy to recover until 2025.

If the central bank does indeed raise rates by just 25 bps this month, despite rising inflation, that would further weaken the pound in the near term.

As for the pound's dynamics in the long term, it does not depend at all on what pace of tightening British officials choose now, UBS is certain.

Swiss bank analysts believe that the future of the pound is already predetermined, and it is not at all rosy. According to their forecasts, this year the GBP will fall to historical lows amid an exacerbation of the gas crisis.

According to UBS, Russia will continue to use energy exports as the main means of pressure on the West. The reduction in the supply of Russian blue fuel will cause huge and irreparable damage to the economies of Europe and the UK.

Electricity bills on the peninsula are expected to rise even more by mid-autumn, leading to another surge in inflation in the country and exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis.

In addition, the pound's growth will be limited by the uncertain political environment in the UK.Recall that Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned in early July, and now the Conservative Party faces a long search for a successor.

Considering all the negative background that will put strong pressure on the British currency in the next few months, UBS sharply lowered its forecast for the GBP/USD pair.

Analysts expect the pound to fall against the dollar to 1.15 in the fourth quarter. The pound was trading at about this level two years ago when the COVID-19 pandemic shook global markets.

The Swiss bank's forecast is rather surprising, as most other experts believe that the currency will stay at 1.22 until the end of the year as the BoE raises interest rates sharply.

UBS also believes that even the biggest increase in almost three decades this month will not give the pound a solid boost and, moreover, will not serve as a long-term driver for it.

Analysts predict that the pound will be able to recover against the dollar only next year. So, the GBP/USD pair will still be trading at the level of 1.18 in the first quarter, and by June it will be able to rise to the level of 1.20.

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IFX Gertrude
08-05-2022, 05:38 AM
American stock indices rise during trading

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220805/analytics62ec8fc157de0_source!.jpg

The number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits increased by 6 thousand last week and reached 260 thousand people, according to a report from the US Department of Labor. Analysts, on average, also expected a rise to 260k from the previous week's previously announced level.

For clear guidance, investors should also wait for US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data for July, expected to reach 250K, up from 372K earlier. It is also important to monitor the global reaction to China's strong military exercises near Taiwan.

The US trade deficit fell by 6.2% in June to $79.6 billion, according to the country's Department of Commerce. According to the revised data, in May, the negative trade balance amounted to $84.9 billion, and not $85.5 billion, as previously reported. Experts on average expected a decline to $80.1 billion.

The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 16:47 GMT+3 rose by 0.03% - up to 32821.17 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 added 0.1% to 4159.39 points.

The Nasdaq Composite increased 0.4% to 12,719.37 points.

U.S. health insurance and services company Cigna Corp. posted a 6% increase in net income in the second quarter and improved its guidance for the full year of 2022. Its shares are up 3.7%.

eBay Inc. stocks cheaper by 4.9%. The world's largest online auction recorded a net loss in the second quarter of 2022 and reduced revenue. However, the latter figure, along with adjusted earnings, beat market expectations.

Papers of Booking Holdings Inc. drop by 4%, although the company that owns various travel planning services returned to profitable levels in the second quarter of 2022 as the market recovered from the coronavirus pandemic.

American oil company ConocoPhillips increased its net profit by 2.5 times in the second quarter due to rising oil prices and increased production and announced its intention to increase payments to shareholders by $5 billion, that is, up to $15 billion. Meanwhile, its shares are depreciating by 1.1%.

Share price of WeWork Inc. decreases by 4.8%. The American co-working service reduced its net loss in the second quarter of 2022 and increased revenue by more than a third, but the figures fell short of analysts' expectations.

Papa John's International is down 1.7%, although the pizza chain owner returned to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal 2022 with a modest increase in revenue and an increase in annual dividends.

Shares of Shake Shack Inc. fall by 13.8%. The American fast food chain again suffered a loss in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, and the company's revenue increased weaker than expected.

Walmart Inc. shares are down 0.3%. The nation's largest retailer is laying off hundreds of corporate management employees as part of a plan to restructure operations.

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IFX Gertrude
08-08-2022, 08:30 AM
EUR/USD: dollar maintains momentum, euro difficult to recover

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220808/analytics62f0a19883357.jpg

The US currency started the week quite cheerfully, trying to maintain the positive momentum received after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls data. At the same time, the euro cannot boast of similar dynamics, demonstrating pendulum dynamics.

The euro is once again teetering on the brink of falling, while trying to settle in the positions it has won. However, these actions are not always successful as the USD continues to dominate the market. At the same time, according to reports on the dollar index (USDX), investors are showing bearish sentiment against the US currency. Over the past two weeks, market participants have reduced their positions on USD growth after a long build-up. A continuation of the current trend can lead to a short-term drawdown of the greenback.

Currently, the greenback is trying to gain a foothold in the upward trend, and not without success. Its rise was catalyzed by impressive US employment data. Against this backdrop, markets expect more decisive action from the Federal Reserve in terms of tightening monetary policy. Recall that, according to reports, 528,000 jobs appeared last month in the US economy, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.

According to economists, positive data on US employment revived the hopes of traders and investors about a significant increase in the key rate (by 75 bps) at the Fed's September meeting. Note that strong data on employment growth in America came as a surprise to the markets. Most experts expected opposite results, referring to recent studies on the onset of a recession in the US economy and to a slowdown in economic growth in the country.

For the time being, however, fortune favors the greenback. After the release of Nonfarm Payrolls, the dollar confidently overtook the euro. The EUR/USD was trading near 1.0186 on Monday morning, August 8, trying to return to last week's highs near 1.0200.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220808/analytics62f0a1aeaa48f.jpg

Note that after the release of the US employment report, the EUR/USD pair plunged sharply to the critical 1.0170, but later managed to recover. Against this background, some experts are optimistic about the immediate prospects for the euro. According to preliminary calculations, in the coming months, the euro may be in an upward trend, despite the threat of a recession in the European economy. The reason is the increased risk appetite in global markets. Against this background, experts believe that the fair rate of the EUR/USD pair is close to 1.1400. Analysts' conclusions are based on the difference in rates in the US and Germany. At the same time, experts do not exclude another fall of the euro to parity with the dollar.

This week, investors are focusing on US inflation data. The release of the July consumer price index is scheduled (the preliminary forecast provides for an increase of 0.2% in monthly terms) on Wednesday, August 10. The markets will get acquainted with the US producer price index on Thursday, August 11. This indicator is crucial for the further dynamics of the interest rate. Recall that the positive report on employment in the US opened the way for the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy.

According to experts, having received confirmation of the strengthening of the US economy, investors will return to long positions on the dollar. This will give an additional impetus to the latter and set up traders for an extreme tightening of monetary policy by the Fed.

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IFX Gertrude
08-09-2022, 06:04 AM
US stock market closed mixed, Dow Jones up 0.09%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220809/analytics62f1d62d7645e.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.09%, the S&P 500 fell 0.12%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.10%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Walt Disney Company, which gained 2.48 points or 2.33% to close at 109.11. Quotes Dow Inc rose by 0.66 points (1.28%), ending trading at 52.15. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 0.49 points or 1.26% to close at 39.48.

The biggest losers were JPMorgan Chase & Co, which shed 1.41 points or 1.22% to end the session at 114.35. Visa Inc Class A was up 2.55 points (1.18%) to close at 213.32, while McDonald's Corporation was down 2.43 points (0.94%) to close at 256. .80.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Penn National Gaming Inc, which rose 5.56% to hit 36.05, Gap Inc, which gained 5.44% to close at 10.27, and also shares of General Motors Company, which rose 4.16% to close the session at 37.56.

The biggest losers were Tyson Foods Inc, which shed 8.40% to close at 80.10. Shares of NVIDIA Corporation lost 6.30% and ended the session at 177.93. Enphase Energy Inc lost 4.38% to 287.74.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Helbiz Inc, which rose 114.64% to 1.61, TOP Financial Group Ltd, which gained 102.66% to close at 20.57, and also shares of Karuna Therapeutics Inc, which rose 71.84% to end the session at 241.19.

Shares of Reata Pharmaceuticals Inc became the leaders of the decline, which decreased in price by 32.61%, closing at 24.06. Shares of Uniqure NV lost 27.02% to end the session at 18.64. Quotes of Nuzee Inc decreased in price by 24.32% to 0.84.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2119) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1018), while quotes of 123 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2399 companies rose in price, 1436 fell, and 229 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.66% to 21.29.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.79%, or 14.15, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI September futures rose 1.51%, or 1.34, to $90.35 a barrel. Brent oil futures for October delivery rose 1.37%, or 1.30, to $96.22 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.13% to 1.02, while USD/JPY advanced 0.05% to hit 135.04.
Futures on the USD index fell 0.20% to 106.28.

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IFX Gertrude
08-10-2022, 10:05 AM
Tailwind: the pound seeks to sail away from the political and economic turmoil

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220810/analytics62f358120129d.jpg

The British currency remains relatively calm this week, expecting, along with the US, a report on the consumer price index in America. An additional factor of pressure for the pound was the thunderclouds on the political horizon of the UK, due to the election of the prime minister.

Markets are focused on the election race in the UK, the favorite of which is Liz Truss, the foreign secretary. She claims the place of Boris Johnson, who was forced by the Conservative Party to resign as prime minister and its leader. The important points of the election program of Truss were the rejection of family benefits and tax cuts for citizens. In addition, the Minister of Foreign Affairs proposed to limit the influence of the Bank of England on the country's economy.

Many analysts assess the current political situation in the UK as a crisis, which is exacerbated by economic turmoil. Recall that last week, the BoE raised interest rates by 50%, but this had little effect on inflation in the country. It should be noted that the central bank began the fight against inflation in December 2021 and since then has systematically raised rates at each of the subsequent six meetings. As a result, by the beginning of the summer, inflation in the UK amounted to 9.4%. According to the BoE's forecasts, it will peak in October, soaring to 13.3%. Against this background, by the end of 2022, the UK economy will enter a recession that will last five quarters.

However, many experts disagree with this view. Currency strategists at Oxford Economics assess the risks of a recession as small, despite the current instability. According to economists, in 2023 the key rate cut by the BoE is more likely. At the same time, the central bank's actions aimed at reducing rates are slowing down economic activity in the UK. Against this backdrop, the GBP is under tremendous pressure, risking to collapse, currency strategists at Societe Generale believe.

At the end of July, the British currency showed growth, waiting for the Federal Reserve to abandon the overly aggressive tightening of the monetary policy. However, this did not happen. On the contrary, the US central bank is quite resolute, and it is supported by the hawkish mood of US officials. Against this background, the pound's recovery was interrupted, releasing the latter into free swimming on the waves of the financial market. The pound has slipped 10% against the dollar since the beginning of this year, placing it in the top three worst currencies among the G-10. The reason is the low pace of rate hikes by the BoE compared to the Fed's anticipatory actions.

According to analysts at Societe Generale, in the near future, the pound will fall to its lowest level since the collapse at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additional pressure on the pound is created by the BoE's recent announcement about a possible recession and growing expectations of another rise in interest rates in the US (by 75 bps). In such a situation, the pound may sink to 1.2000 and below. If the bearish trend for the pound continues, the GBP/USD pair will fall to 1.1400-1.2000, according to Societe Generale.

The pair was close to 1.2100 on Tuesday, August 9 and even peaked at 1.2130, but failed to consolidate on these positions. The GBP/USD pair was trading in the range of 1.2069-1.2070 on Wednesday morning, August 10. At the same time, the greenback showed mixed dynamics, as market participants expect July reports on the US consumer price index.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220810/analytics62f358365ca8d.jpg

According to updated forecasts for the British currency, in the short term it will maintain support against the US. However, the high likelihood of interest rate cuts by the BoE in 2023 is putting downward pressure on the pound. At the same time, according to analysts at Oxford Economics, in the near future the central bank will raise interest rates amid galloping inflation, thereby contributing to the pound's growth. However, in the long term, the BoE may revise the current monetary strategy, according to Oxford Economics.

UK GDP data for the second quarter of 2022 will be released this Friday, August 12. According to preliminary estimates, this indicator is expected to slow down to 2.8% in annual terms. Against this background, pessimism dominates the markets. In addition, on a quarterly basis, GDP is projected at -0.2%. Earlier, an increase of 0.8% was recorded in the first quarter of 2022. If the current GDP turns out to be weaker than expected, then the pound's decline is inevitable.

The pound may be supported by the dollar's retreat across the entire spectrum of the market. In such a situation, the pound is able to stay afloat. According to preliminary forecasts, in the third quarter of 2022, the GBP/USD pair will remain close to 1.2000 and may reach 1.2200, and by the first quarter of 2023 it will rise to 1.2300.

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IFX Gertrude
08-11-2022, 06:20 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.63%

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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.63% to a 3-month high, the S&P 500 rose 2.13% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.89%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Walt Disney Company, which gained 4.30 points or 3.98% to close at 112.43. Salesforce.com Inc rose 6.37 points or 3.50% to close at 188.61. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 11.29 points or 3.35% to close at 347.91.

The losers were Merck & Company Inc, which shed 0.33 points (0.37%) to end the session at 89.19. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was down 0.46 points (0.09%) to close at 537.72, while Walmart Inc was up 0.27 points (0.21%) to close at 129. fourteen.

Among the gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, which rose 11.82% to 13.53, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, which gained 9.74% to close at 41. 67, as well as shares of Carnival Corporation, which rose 9.19% to end the session at 10.34.

The biggest losers were CME Group Inc, which shed 2.24% to close at 198.40. Shares of Dollar Tree Inc shed 1.76% to end the session at 165.97. Quotes Ralph Lauren Corp Class A fell in price by 1.29% to 95.52.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Bioatla Inc, which rose 83.10% to hit 6.61, Amyris Inc, which gained 41.92% to close at 3.25, and Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 39.19% to end the session at 1.03.

The biggest losers were Redbox Entertainment Inc, which shed 52.86% to close at 1.65. Shares of OPTIMIZERx Corp lost 30.02% and ended the session at 15.57. Quotes of IsoPlexis Corp fell in price by 30.00% to 2.10.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2685) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (468), while quotations of 102 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2934 stocks rose in price, 819 fell, and 241 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 9.32% to 19.74, hitting a new 3-month low.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.28%, or 5.15, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for September delivery rose 1.14%, or 1.03, to $91.53 a barrel. Brent oil futures for October delivery rose 0.74%, or 0.71, to $97.02 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.88% to hit 1.03, while USD/JPY shed 1.63% to hit 132.93.

Futures on the USD index fell 1.09% to 105.10.

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IFX Gertrude
08-12-2022, 08:59 AM
The music did not play for long, the yen danced for a short time

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220812/analytics62f604e9de983.jpg

The dollar is getting up from its knees after a crushing fall on Wednesday. The yen is currently feeling the greatest pressure from the greenback, which showed the strongest growth on the US inflation data the day before.

The market freaked out

By the end of the week, investors continue to digest the July statistics on US inflation. Recall that the data turned out to be cooler than forecasts, which caused a large-scale sell-off of the dollar.

Last month, annual inflation in the US fell from the previous value of 9.1% to 8.5%, although economists had expected the CPI to fall to 8.7%.

A significant easing of inflationary pressures has increased fears that the Federal Reserve may reduce the degree of its aggressiveness with respect to interest rates already at the September meeting.

The reaction of the market was lightning-fast and very emotional: the yield of US government bonds fell sharply, followed by a plunge in the dollar. The DXY index sank 1.5% to a low of 104.646 on Wednesday.

The dollar's weakness provided support to all major currencies, but the yen gained the most in this situation. The yen soared by more than 1.6% against its US counterpart, to a mark of 135.

The dollar is gaining momentum

After a loud fall on Wednesday, the yield of 10-year US government bonds turned towards growth yesterday. It rose by 3.41% during the day and reached a new high of 2.902%.

The sharp increase in the indicator again widened the gap between the yields of US treasury bonds and their Japanese counterparts.

The yen, which is very sensitive to this difference, could not resist the pressure and moved to decline.

The USD/JPY pair managed to recover by 0.12% to 133.19 on Thursday. It was also supported by the general strengthening of the dollar.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220812/analytics62f604f820465.jpg

The greenback grew by 0.1% against its main competitors. Its index remained almost unchanged and stayed at 105.2 during the day.

Yesterday's comments by Federal Reserve members contributed to the reversal of the yield of US government bonds and the dollar. Despite the slowdown in inflation in July, the tone of officials still remains hawkish.

Neil Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that the latest CPI data did not change his expectations about the Fed's future course.

In addition, he stressed that the central bank is still very far from declaring victory over inflation.

The head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, was in solidarity with her colleague. She also does not rule out the continuation of the Fed's hawkish policy, unless, of course, the next portions of macro data will favor such a sharp increase.

Recall that the key Fed's goal is to bring interest rates from the current level of 2.252.5% to 4% by the end of the year.

Some analysts believe that the central bank will try to solve this problem as soon as possible, and predict another rate increase of 75 bps at a meeting in September.

Why does the yen have no chance?

This year the dollar index rose by 10%. The greenback received such a solid increase thanks to the aggressive policy of the Fed.

Since March, the US central bank has raised interest rates by 225 bps. This makes it the undisputed leader: none of the major central banks can compete with the Fed in the pace of tightening.

But the biggest divergence in monetary policy right now is between the US and Japan. Despite the global increase in rates, the Bank of Japan is still bending its line and continues to keep the rate at a low level.

The priority for the Japanese central bank is not to fight inflation, but to restore the economy, which has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unlike the US and EU, which have already managed to get out of the crisis caused by the coronavirus, the Japanese economy is just beginning to show signs of recovery.

According to preliminary estimates, in the second quarter, Japan's annual GDP could show growth of 2.7%, which is in line with pre-pandemic indicators.

Statistics on the gross domestic product will be published on Monday. But even if the data turns out to be positive, it most likely will not affect the policies of BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in any way.

Many experts are inclined to believe that the head of the BOJ will not give up his commitment to a super-soft monetary rate. The main argument in its favor now will be the low wages remaining in the country.

At this stage, salaries in Japan are far behind the rate of inflation, which undermines the purchasing power of citizens.

Another big reason to keep rates low is the coronavirus statistics. Japan is at the epicenter of a new COVID-19 outbreak, posing a major threat to the world's third largest economy.

According to economists at the Japan Research Institute, the BOJ's position can be changed to hawkish only after Kuroda leaves his post.

Given that he is due to retire no earlier than April 2023, one can estimate how long the downward trend promises to be for the yen.

Analysts at the Finnish bank Nordea predict that the USD/JPY pair will continue to strengthen on the tight policy of the Fed and reach the level of 140 in the foreseeable future.

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IFX Gertrude
08-15-2022, 06:52 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 1.27%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220815/analytics62f9ca51ee7d9.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.27% to a 3-month high, the S&P 500 rose 1.73% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.09%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Walt Disney Company, which gained 3.88 points or 3.30% to close at 121.57. Merck & Company Inc rose 2.09 points or 2.35% to close at 91.02. Apple Inc rose 2.15% or 3.63 points to close at 172.12.

The biggest losers were Johnson & Johnson, which shed 1.84 points or 1.10% to end the session at 165.30. Amgen Inc was down 0.04 points (0.02%) to close at 248.39, while Visa Inc Class A was up 0.25 points (0.12%) to close at 211. .33.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc, which rose 7.93% to hit 183.19, Albemarle Corp, which gained 5.98% to close at 281.60, and also shares of Penn National Gaming Inc, which rose 5.90% to close the session at 37.70.

The biggest losers were Illumina Inc, which shed 8.40% to close at 208.32. Shares of PerkinElmer Inc lost 1.89% to end the session at 157.91. Quotes of Organon & Co decreased in price by 1.34% to 30.99.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Embark Technology Inc, which rose 84.80% to hit 1.07, Twin Vee Powercats Co, which gained 77.50% to close at 7.10. as well as AN2 Therapeutics Inc, which rose 64.66% to close the session at 19.38.

The drop leaders were Performance Shipping Inc, which shed 44.88% to close at 0.34. Shares of PLx Pharma Inc shed 36.68% to end the session at 1.64. Quotes of Imac Holdings Inc decreased in price by 33.36% to 0.63.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2517) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (588), while quotes of 123 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,762 companies rose in price, 988 fell, and 200 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.32% to 19.53, hitting a new 3-month low.

The consumer sentiment index of the University of Michigan, which reflects the degree of household confidence in the US economy, according to preliminary estimates, rose to 55.1 points in August from 51.5 points in July, with an expected increase to 52.5 points.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.53%, or 9.55, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for September delivery fell 2.63%, or 2.48, to $91.86 a barrel. Brent oil futures for October delivery fell 1.69%, or 1.68, to $97.92 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.57% to 1.03, while USD/JPY edged up 0.39% to hit 133.52.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.54% to 105.56.

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IFX Gertrude
08-16-2022, 09:01 AM
Dollar took revenge after the euro rose. Will the EUR/USD pair get stuck in a bearish swamp?

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220816/analytics62fb35bd7daff.jpg

The US currency is full of energy, which it has shown during the rise in the EUR/USD pair. However, experts do not exclude that the European currency will be able to outperform its competitor, but only in a short run. According to experts, at the moment the greenback is one of the most reliable assets that have confirmed the status of a safe-haven currency. The US currency was near a weekly high on Tuesday, August 16, while many key currencies remained under pressure. The reason is the deterioration of global economic data, which increased the risks of a recession.

Against this backdrop, the euro rate against the dollar reached six-week highs, exceeding the psychologically important milestone of 1.0200. The euro traded above the indicated level at the beginning of this week, but then fell to the critical 1.0157. The EUR/USD pair showed the effects of a collapse on Tuesday morning, August 16, hovering near 1.0160 amid strong USD buying pressure.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220816/analytics62fb35f8118a7.jpg

According to analysts, in the near future the single currency will be supported by the weakening of the greenback and the easing of China's monetary policy. Earlier, the euro strengthened to its highest level in the last month, soaring after the release of data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The reason is the likelihood of lower inflationary pressures.

However, many experts are pessimistic about the medium and long-term prospects for the euro. Currency strategists are sure that the trend towards the weakening of the single currency will last until the end of 2022 - the beginning of 2023. Fueling the fire are fears of a recession as Germany's energy crisis deepens. The specialists expect a long downward trend in EUR due to energy problems and economic disunity in the euro bloc countries. According to forecasts, in the short term, the EUR/USD pair will head towards 0.9600. Experts also allow the euro to stagnate against other world currencies.

However, the single currency's chances to win back will increase if the European Central Bank raises the key rate by 50 bps at the September meeting. In such a situation, a short-term rise in the euro in the range of 1.0400-1.0500 is possible. The euro will be supported by the reduction of interest rates by the People's Bank of China (PBOC). This measure will be aimed at strengthening the national economy, experts emphasize. Recall that on Monday, August 15, the market faced disappointing statistics on business activity in China, which included industrial production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets. Against this background, investors preferred to invest in the dollar, saving their capital due to increased concerns about the growth of the global economy.

The mass exodus of markets in USD is also due to the expectation of the release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, August 17th. According to analysts, the document may contain information demonstrating the Federal Reserve's intentions regarding future rate hikes. This minutes is able to influence the market assessment of the September Fed rate hike, which will ultimately affect the greenback's dynamics.

In a recent Fed speech, it was noted that "a significant change in interest rate policy" is still far away. However, such changes are not far off, Barclays economists believe. The bank's specialists adhere to the current forecast for the interest rate, which provides that the central bank will increase it by 50 bps in September, and in November and December 2022 it will be reduced to 25 bps. The current minutes of the Fed's meeting, due out on Wednesday, will be a turning point for determining the near-term outlook for the market amid uncertainty about monetary policy and how to fight inflation further.

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IFX Gertrude
08-17-2022, 06:32 AM
American stock indices change weakly and in different directions

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220817/analytics62fc5dcf219b2.jpg

As it became known from the report of the US Department of Commerce, the number of houses, the construction of which was started in the country in July, decreased by 9.6% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.446 million in annual terms. The figure was the lowest since February last year. According to the revised data, in June the number of new buildings amounted to 1.599 million, and not 1.559 million, as previously reported. Experts predicted a decline to 1.54 million from the previously announced level in June.

US industrial output rose 0.6% month-on-month in July, doubling the 0.3% rise expected by analysts. According to the revised data, industrial production did not change in June, while a decrease of 0.2% was previously reported.

Production in the processing industry increased by 0.7% compared to June, while experts expected a more moderate growth of 0.2%. A month earlier, the indicator fell by 0.4%, and not by 0.5%, as previously reported. In addition, investors are waiting for the publication of the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the report on retail sales in the US on Friday. Also this week, many leading US retailers publish quarterly reports.

AJ Bell financial analyst Danny Hewson noted that many US investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude, hoping to get new information from the Fed's minutes and retailers' reports, on the basis of which it is possible to understand what exactly consumers are saving on during a period of high inflation.

The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 16:47 GMT+3 increased by 0.05% - up to 33930.76 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 has fallen 0.11% since the market opened to 4292.49 points.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.35% to 13,081.46.

Shares of Walmart Inc. jumped by 5.5%, being the leader of growth in the Dow Jones index. The largest US retailer posted a strong quarterly report and improved its full-year outlook. Walmart's adjusted earnings for the fiscal quarter ended July 31 were $1.77 per share, above analysts' forecast of $1.62 per share. Revenue increased by 8.4% and reached $152.86 billion, while experts on average predicted the figure at $150.99 billion.

Quotes Home Depot Inc. increase by 1.4%. The US-leading home improvement chain posted record revenues and net income in the quarter, even though the number of purchases at its stores fell by 3%.

Target and Lowe's will report on Wednesday, while department store chain Kohl's will report on Thursday.

World Wrestling Entertainment's share price is up 3.2% after the wrestling tournament organizer increased net profit and revenue slightly more than market expectations in the second quarter of 2022.

Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery shed 0.3% on rumors of new cost-cutting measures. In particular, the staff of the subsidiary streaming service HBO will be reduced by about 14%.

Zoom Video Communications' capitalization fell 5.6% after Citi analysts downgraded the recommendation for the company's shares to "sell" from "neutral" levels.

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IFX Gertrude
08-18-2022, 08:34 AM
Wall Street stocks closed lower

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220818/analytics62fdb3cb42800.jpg

The minutes also indicated that Fed officials saw no convincing evidence of easing inflationary pressures in July, suggesting inflation could take longer than expected to slow down.

In an effort to curb inflation, the Fed has already raised its key interest rate by 225 basis points this year. After the release of the protocols, traders in futures linked to the Fed rate estimated its increase by 50 basis points as more likely.

Before the release of protocols, the market was already trading with a significant decline. Growth indices were under pressure due to the weak results of Target's retail chain.

As a result of trading on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 33980.32 points, the S&P 500 - 0.72% to 4274.04, and the Nasdaq Composite - 1.25% to 12938.12 points.

Target Corp. stock quotes. decrease by 2.2%. The company, which owns the second-largest discount store chain in the US, posted a nearly 10-fold drop in net income in the second financial quarter due to forced markdowns that hurt its margins.

Shares of TJX Cos. rise in price by 0.4%. The American chain of discount stores in the 2nd quarter of fiscal 2023 increased its net profit by 3%, but revenue fell short of expectations.

Price of Lowe's Cos. grows by 2.1%. The company, which owns the second-largest home improvement store chain in the US, saw a 1% drop in net income in the second quarter of fiscal 2022, but the per-share figure was better than market expectations.

Papers Krispy Kreme Inc. cheaper by 11.9%. The American chain of coffee shops, known for its donuts, cut its net loss in the 2nd fiscal quarter by 4.5 times, increasing revenue by 7.5%. Meanwhile, the company noted that consumers faced unique economic pressures in the past quarter and downgraded its forecasts for the current fiscal year.

The share price of Endo International Plc increases by 0.8%. An international pharmaceutical company has filed for bankruptcy in a US court to deal with its debt load due to litigation related to the so-called "opioid case".

Published by the US Department of Commerce, statistical data indicated that retail sales in the United States in July did not change in monthly terms.

Analysts polled on average predicted an increase of 0.1%.

Sales rose 0.8% in June, up from the 1% previously announced, according to revised data.

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IFX Gertrude
08-19-2022, 09:12 AM
Yen - cover: the dollar broke the chain

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220819/analytics62ff3bb1dbe56.jpg

Yesterday, the greenback showed a parabolic growth against the yen. The USD rocket rise continues on Friday morning. Dollar aims to renew monthly peak against Japanese currency.

Hawk fuel for USD

The greenback showed convincing growth on all fronts on Thursday. Its index rose by 0.12% and reached the highest value for the month - a mark of 107.6.

The Federal Reserve minutes, which were published on Wednesday, served as a powerful driver for the dollar.

The minutes of the July meeting of the FOMC showed that at this stage the majority of the members of the US central bank are in favor of continuing the aggressive monetary course.

The greenback received even greater impetus yesterday after an interview with the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly.

The official told CNN reporters that it is still too early to declare a victory over inflation and it would be appropriate to raise the interest rate by 50 or even 75 bps in September.

Recall that after the release of the minutes, futures markets took into account the fears of FOMC members about the impending recession and reduced the likelihood of raising rates by 75 bps next month up to 40%.

However, Daly's comment stirred up the water again. For many, it has become obvious that we should not completely rule out the possibility of a third consecutive increase in rates by 75 bps.

Despite the risk of a slowdown in economic growth and an easing of inflationary pressures in July, the Fed may once again deliver a hawkish surprise. Such a scenario is very fertile ground for the dollar.

Increasing pressure on the JPY

The discrepancy between the US Fed's aggressive stance and the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan has led to a serious drop in the yen this year.

The JPY has fallen 15% against the dollar since January. This is the strongest decline of the Japanese currency against the USD since 2013.

Despite the recent recovery, the yen is still struggling to come off a 24-year low. And apparently, in the near future it will not shine.

Strengthening hawkish sentiment on the Fed's future strategy pushed USD/JPY yesterday to a 3-week high of 136.38.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220819/analytics62ff3bf4f0372.jpg

This morning, the asset continues to move steadily upward to a monthly peak of 137, as additional pressure on the yen comes from the release of inflation statistics in Japan.

As the report showed, inflation in the country continues to remain above the BOJ target, which is 2%. In July, the core consumer price index on an annualized basis jumped to 2.4% against the June value of 2.2%.

This is the highest figure since the end of 2014. The inflation rate in Japan has risen for the past four months in a row.

Despite the fact that price pressure continues to increase, this is unlikely to force the BOJ to change its rhetoric.

Today, the Japanese central bank is the only one among the major central banks that still adheres to dovish tactics.

While its peers are actively fighting inflation by raising interest rates, the BOJ keeps the figure at an ultra-low level of 0.1%.

The head of the Japanese central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, has repeatedly stated that the current inflation is due to rising commodity prices, which indicates its temporary nature.

In addition, inflation in Japan remains relatively low compared to other major countries. For this reason, Tokyo is in no hurry to raise interest rates so as not to harm its already fragile economy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fighting inflation Japan is now helping government measures to limit price increases. Through this, and through planned wage increases, the authorities hope to generate robust consumer demand that should help the economy recover.

Nevertheless, experts believe that wage growth, no matter how strong it may be, will not be able to catch up with inflation, which risks accelerating to 3% by the end of the year.

Japan is forecast to see further depreciation of the yen, an increase in the cost of living and a significant reduction in consumer spending until the BOJ begins to take really effective measures to combat inflation.

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IFX Gertrude
08-22-2022, 07:27 AM
US stock markets opened 0.5-1% lower

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220822/analytics6302f568af3ce.jpg

In the absence of important statistics, investors are looking at quarterly reports and other corporate news, as well as statements from Fed officials.

The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 16:54 GMT+3 fell by 0.71% - to 33758.39 points. Among the leaders of the decline in the index are the shares of Boeing Co., Walt Disney Co. and Salesforce Inc., depreciating more than 2%. Merck & Co. papers are the growth leader, rising in price by 1%.

Standard & Poor's 500 has fallen 1.03% since the market opened to 4239.44 points. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.58% to 12,760.13 points.

Shares of Deere & Co. fell by 2.9% after the world's largest manufacturer of agricultural machinery and equipment reported a net profit growth in the 3rd financial quarter, weaker than market expectations and worsened its full-year forecast.

Quotes from US sportswear and footwear retailer Foot Locker Inc. soared by 22%. The company published a strong statement for the past financial quarter and announced the resignation of the chief executive officer.

The market value of General Motors Co. rises 2.1% on news that the company will resume paying quarterly dividends, suspended in April 2020 due to uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bed Bath & Beyond plunged 42% after reports that prominent billionaire investor Ryan Cohen sold his entire stake in the retailer for a profit of more than $58 million.

Capitalization of Home Depot Inc. declined 0.6% despite the fact that the board of directors of the home improvement chain has approved the launch of a $15 billion share buyback program.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Ballard, said on Thursday that he could support another rate hike by 75 basis points at the September meeting of the US Central Bank. At the same time, he added that, in his opinion, the economy has not yet overcome the peak of inflation.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed colleague Mary Daly said that to curb inflation, the rate needs to be raised to just above 3% by the end of the year, but opposed an aggressive tightening next year.

The market is still waiting for a 50 basis points rate in September, however, there are growing fears that the rate will be raised by 75 basis points.

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IFX Gertrude
08-23-2022, 05:34 AM
US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.91%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220823/analytics630444704a6ea.jpg

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.91%, the S&P 500 fell 2.14%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.55%.

Procter & Gamble Company was the leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, shedding 0.40 points (0.27%) to close at 149.33. Quotes Johnson & Johnson fell by 0.59 points (0.35%), ending trading at 167.59. Chevron Corp lost 0.79 points or 0.50% to close at 156.90.

The losers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 1.54 points or 4.35% to end the session at 33.84. Salesforce.com Inc. shares rose 3.69% or 6.79 points to close at 176.98, while Walt Disney Company shed 3.50% or 4.20 points to close at 115.94.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were The Mosaic Company, which rose 3.44% to hit 55.36, Albemarle Corp, which gained 2.12% to close at 275.75, and shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 2.07% to close the session at 105.64.

The biggest losers were Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which shed 7.43% to close at 12.71. Shares of Aptiv PLC lost 7.28% to end the session at 96.22. Quotes of CarMax Inc decreased in price by 6.66% to 89.86.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Bright Minds Biosciences Inc, which rose 72.80% to 2.16, Anpac Bio Medical Science Co Ltd, which gained 66.01% to close at 0 .36, as well as Summit Therapeutics PLC, which rose 48.18% to close the session at 1.63.

The biggest losers were Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc, which shed 39.78% to close at 3.86. Shares of Pharvaris BV lost 34.07% and ended the session at 12.14. Quotes of Golden Sun Education Group Ltd decreased in price by 29.18% to 36.01.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2581) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (554), while quotes of 112 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,905 stocks fell, 867 rose, and 206 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 15.53% to 23.80.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.84%, or 14.75, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 0.06%, or 0.05, to $90.49 a barrel. Brent oil futures for October delivery fell 0.07%, or 0.07, to $96.65 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.90% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY was up 0.42% to hit 137.50.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.72% to 108.88.

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IFX Gertrude
08-24-2022, 06:02 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.47%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220824/analytics630598745778b.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.47%, the S&P 500 fell 0.22%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.03%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 5.09 points or 3.24% to close at 161.99. Quotes of Caterpillar Inc rose by 5.45 points (2.84%), closing the session at 197.21. Dow Inc rose 1.21 points or 2.22% to close at 55.62.

The biggest losers were Procter & Gamble Company, which shed 2.88 points or 1.93% to end the session at 146.45. Home Depot Inc climbed 1.70% or 5.31 points to close at 306.90 while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shed 1.61% or 8.77 points to close at 535 .80.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Halliburton Company, which rose 6.95% to hit 31.22, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, which gained 6.90% to close at 73.79, and shares of Schlumberger NV, which rose 6.61% to close the session at 39.36.

The biggest losers were shares of Twitter Inc, which shed 7.32% to close at 39.86. Shares of Pool Corporation shed 3.72% to end the session at 360.63. Quotes Healthpeak Properties Inc fell in price by 3.16% to 26.93.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc., which rose 53.04% to 1.49, Windtree Therapeutics Inc, which gained 52.21% to close at 0. 70, as well as shares of China Index Holdings Ltd., which rose 42.86% to close the session at 1.00.

The drop leaders were WeTrade Group Inc, which shed 39.02% to close at 3.22. Shares of Golden Sun Education Group Ltd lost 38.06% and ended the session at 21.99. Quotes of Bright Minds Biosciences Inc decreased in price by 38.43% to 1.33.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,552) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,531), while quotes of 123 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1897 companies rose in price, 1846 fell, and 197 remained at the level of the previous close.

Shares in Occidental Petroleum Corporation surged to a 3-year high, rising 6.90% or 4.76 points to close at 73.79.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 1.30% to 24.11.

Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.71%, or 12.35, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 3.62%, or 3.27, to $93.63 a barrel. Brent futures for October delivery rose 3.81%, or 3.68, to $100.16 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.28% to 1.00, while USD/JPY fell 0.51% to hit 136.76.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.47% to 108.47.

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IFX Gertrude
08-25-2022, 09:28 AM
GBP/USD: "Disappointing" pound at the peak of undervaluation

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220825/analytics63071f1da044f.jpg

There is a paradoxical situation in the dynamics of the British currency. The pound, which is teetering on the brink of failure and periodically tests low levels, is considered by many experts to be undervalued. This factor helps the pound "float" out of the deepest price drops.

This week, the British currency was actively declining against the USD, trying to develop a bearish rally. As a result, the pound traded near two-year lows, stepping over the 1.1700 support level from time to time. GBP/USD managed to move towards consolidation later this week, breaking a four-day streak of declines and climbing above 1.1800. However, in the short term, pound bears will lose out due to lack of appetite for risk. At the same time, many investors prefer selling GBP, fearing the strengthening of energy problems in the country.

After the release of reports on inflation in the UK, short positions on the British currency intensified. According to reports for July, the consumer price index in the country reached 10.1%, being the highest since 1982. Citi Bank analysts estimate that inflation in the UK will soar to a record 18.6% in January 2023. The reason is a significant increase in prices for blue fuel. According to experts, British inflation will be the highest since the 1979 oil crisis, when its level corresponded to 17.8%. Under such a scenario, the purchasing power of the population will drop sharply. This will trigger a further economic downturn, hurting household finances in the UK.

However, many experts believe that Citi Bank's forecast is extreme, and even the intensification of the energy crisis in the country is unlikely to lead to a sharp round of inflation. This scenario is at odds with the baseline consensus forecast, which assumes inflation to rise to 11.9%, and the Bank of England's estimate (which assumes inflation to rise to 13%). The latter option is quite possible if the new British prime minister introduces another fiscal stimulus.

The current situation has a negative impact on the pound's dynamics, which remains under pressure. The GBP/USD pair cruised near 1.1835 on the morning of Thursday, August 25, gaining momentum. The pound is looking to recoup previous losses with varying degrees of success.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220825/analytics63071f369c186.jpg

Additional pressure on the dynamics of the GBP has increased fears about the onset of a recession in the UK in the third quarter of this year. In such a scenario, the BoE will have to revise its current monetary policy and slow down the key rate hike. Analysts estimate that the pound is now negatively correlated with interest rates, as the risk of a recession is more important than the potential tightening of monetary policy by the BoE.

On the side of the bears of the British currency - a long-term strengthening of the greenback, which is fueled by the confidence of market players in the further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In addition, investors are convinced that the central bank is set for a significant rate hike in September (by 50-75 bps). The Fed's hawkish stance on this issue will send the dollar to new highs. However, risky assets, including the British currency, will come under pressure. Against this background, experts recommend holding short positions on the GBP/USD pair with 1.1500 as the target.

Currency strategists at the investment bank JPMorgan also adhere to the downward trend against the pound. Analysts expect the pound to fall against the dollar to its lowest level in two years. The reasons are the strengthening of the recession in the UK and the aggravation of the energy crisis due to problems with gas supplies. Against this background, the pound risks falling to 1.1400, the level that was recorded in March 2020.

According to JPMorgan economists, in 2022 the British currency fell by 12% against the US, and this is not the limit. The current situation has made the pound one of the worst G10 currencies in terms of spot returns. However, JP Morgan does not rule out a further recovery of the pound in 2023.

According to experts, risk appetite, the decline in the role of the USD and a fair assessment of the pound stand out among the catalysts for the potential growth of the GBP. Many analysts believe that the pound's undervaluation is a key factor that can prevent its further fall. Over the past 15 years, the deviation of the GBP/USD pair from fair value did not exceed 20%. Currently, the pound is at the peak of undervaluation (by 19.3%). According to experts, the pound may fall even more and remain underestimated for a long time.

According to analysts, the pound retains the potential for further decline, which is possible in the short and medium term planning horizons. The pound may be supported by increased risk appetite and the withdrawal of the greenback from its leading position. However, in light of the strengthening USD, this is unlikely. The pound's appeal for investors is possible amid falling real rates in the US, but now this is unattainable. At current levels, assets denominated in GBP look very cheap for foreign investors, experts conclude.

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IFX Gertrude
08-26-2022, 08:53 AM
Powell vs dollar: will he support or let it float freely?

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220826/analytics6308717bbcf01.jpg

At the start of the symposium in Jackson Hole, the intrigue about the succeeding dynamics of the dollar increases. Market participants are tensely waiting for what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will say and how his speech will affect the current monetary policy and the prospects of the greenback.

At previous symposiums, Powell paid attention to very important issues. In 2020, he announced monetary stimulus for the American economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Last year, the key moment was the statement about the temporary nature of inflation and the curtailment of incentives. Powell's mistake. His stance on inflation has cost the world and American economies dearly, although this situation is fixable.

In 2022, the theme of the event is a reassessment of the current constraints in the economy, namely a large-scale price increase and ways to combat off-scale inflation. Experts are considering two scenarios of Powell's speeches:

1) Basic
The head of the Fed will once again pay attention to extremely high inflation, stressing that the monetary authorities will fight it. The US central bank will do everything possible to maintain economic growth in the United States.

2) Negative
Powell will confirm that the Fed is following the chosen course and is ready to aggressively raise rates to combat inflation. Against this background, the US economy will experience strong pressure. In addition, there may be an increase in yields and a correction in the markets. However, there are no prerequisites for the implementation of the second scenario.

According to experts, Powell's actions will determine the further dynamics of the greenback. Market participants expect that Powell's speech will clarify the immediate prospects of monetary policy. According to analysts, Powell "will try to manage market expectations" while maintaining the hawkish position of the Fed. On Thursday, August 25, at the symposium that began in Jackson Hole, representatives of the Fed confirmed their intention to raise rates and keep them at a high level until inflation weakens. At the same time, investors remain optimistic about the US currency and cautious with a negative bias towards the European one.

The dollar showed confidence this week, gaining momentum after the release of positive macroeconomic data. As a result, in the second quarter of 2022, the US GDP growth rate was revised upward (from -0.9% to -0.6%). At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased more than expected. After the statistics were released, profitability in the US peaked, but then retreated slightly from high levels.

Experts have recorded a steady growth of the greenback over the current year (by 13.5% against a basket of key currencies). The US currency has risen to its highest level in 20 years, while the euro has fallen by about 12% to below parity, which has not been the case for two decades. At the moment, there are many USD bulls on the market betting on its rise. Traders and investors are confident that the dollar has the strength to continue growing thanks to the hawkish attitude of the Fed and inspiring economic indicators in the United States.

Against this background, the European currency is noticeably losing to its American competitor. The energy crisis in Europe and the European Central Bank's unstable stance on raising rates add fuel to the fire. At the same time, most representatives of the central bank support an interest rate hike by 50 bps. However, many investors are deterred by the deteriorating economic prospects of the eurozone and constantly rising inflation. Against this background, the inflationary situation in the United States looks much more stable than on the other side of the ocean.

According to analysts, double-digit inflation in the eurozone is due to the long-term Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which provoked the energy crisis. Economists fear that the euro bloc countries will fall into the so-called "downward spiral of wage and price growth", from which it is difficult to get out. Against this background, long positions on the euro sharply plunged, which was under pressure.

The failures of the European currency play into the hands of the American one, experts emphasize. According to JPMorgan analysts, the greenback was supported not only by "encouraging economic data" on inflation and employment in the United States, but also by the "growing vulnerability" of the European economy. Recall that in July, the consumer price index in the United States rose by 8.5% in annual terms. At the same time, the unexpected increase in the number of jobs reduced market fears about the onset of a recession.

The US currency has received strong support thanks to the Fed's aggressive rate hike. According to investment analysts at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, this trend will continue in the near future. Against this background, the EUR/USD pair maintains a bearish trend, and the euro still looks vulnerable. Experts note the growing downside risks in relation to the euro.

In the short term, the EUR/USD pair is able to test the parity level again. The euro is still showing weakening, having failed to hold the 1.0000 mark. According to experts, the recovery above the level of 1.0030 will support the single currency. However, now it is rapidly sinking. The EUR/USD pair was near 0.9963 on the morning of Friday, August 26. Currently, experts consider the 0.9950 mark to be the support line, the breakdown of which will pull the pair to the low level of 0.9900.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220826/analytics63087198c9748.jpg

Earlier, currency strategists at Capital Economics announced a prolonged period of the euro's weakness amid deteriorating economic conditions in the eurozone. Against this background, the dollar has every chance of rising, as markets expect the Fed to raise rates again in September. The implementation of such a scenario will increase pressure on the euro. However, any signals from the head of the central bank that the Fed recognizes the stabilization of the inflation rate will allow the markets to interpret what has been said in favor of easing the monetary policy. Misinterpretation of Powell's statements can shake the dollar's position and help the short-term recovery of the EUR/USD pair, experts believe.

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IFX Gertrude
08-29-2022, 08:59 AM
JPY is not a tenant. Powell and Kuroda signed the yen's death sentence

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220829/analytics630c624df359f.jpg

The Japanese currency is flying down at the start of the new week. The reason for the next peak of the JPY is still the same the divergence in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which intensified after Jackson Hole.

The main event of last week was the annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, and its climax was the speech of the chairman of the US central bank.

As expected, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed his firm intention to fight inflation by further raising interest rates.

The restoration of price stability will take some time and will require the "decisive" use of the central bank's tools, the official said during his speech at the forum.

The market interpreted this comment as hawkish, which provoked a sharp jump in the yield of US government bonds and, as a result, a large-scale rally of the dollar.

The DXY index updated its 20-year high on Monday morning, jumping to the level of 109.4.

The Japanese currency suffered the most from the strong greenback. In just a couple of hours, the Japanese fell by almost 0.6% and reached a 5-week low of 138.60.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220829/analytics630c627310cdd.jpg

The current weakness of the JPY is also dictated by the dovish tone of the head of the BOJ. Like his American counterpart, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda did not present any surprise at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Earlier, Kuroda repeatedly stated that the normalization of monetary policy could cause serious damage to the Japanese economy, which has not yet recovered after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last Saturday, Kuroda again made it clear that he remains faithful to the ultra-soft course and will continue to adhere to it until "wages and prices will not grow in a stable and sustainable manner."

According to experts, this comment by the head of the BOJ was the last nail in the coffin of the Japanese currency.

In the near future, the yen will not only continue to fall, but also, most likely, will reach another record low against the dollar.

At the time of release, the USD/JPY pair rose above the 139 level and was aimed at the psychologically important 140 mark.

Most currency strategists believe that in the short term, the asset will be able to cross the key barrier that proved impregnable last month.

The probability of such a scenario developing is now very high. In the light of recent speeches by Powell. The markets expect that the wide difference in interest rates between Japan and the United States will remain longer than predicted.

This significantly strengthens the bulls' positions on the USD/JPY pair. According to experts, the upward trend of the asset will continue until at least one of the central banks signals a change in its current monetary rate.

We also draw your attention to the fact that this week the US dollar may receive another strong growth momentum. On Friday, traders expect the release of the US employment report for August.

We also draw your attention to the fact that this week the US dollar may receive another strong growth momentum. On Friday, traders expect the release of the US employment report for August.

If the data from the labor market turns out to be strong, it will push the greenback to new heights and send the yen even deeper to the bottom.

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IFX Gertrude
08-30-2022, 06:23 AM
US stock indicators continue to decline on the statements of the head of the Fed

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220830/analytics630d74fd5cb88.jpg

The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 17:01 GMT + 3 decreased by 0.7% - to 32064.03 points. Standard & Poor's 500 by this time fell by 0.6% - to 4032.75 points. The Nasdaq Composite index has lost 0.7% since the market opened and amounted to 12057.94 points.

On Friday, the fall of the Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded 1,000 points and became the highest percentage since May 18. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted their sharpest declines since June. Powell's remarks, speaking at the annual economics symposium at Jackson Hole on Friday, were more reactive than market participants expected.

Among the 30 components of Dow Jones, only three stocks show an increase in quotations at the beginning of trading: Chevron Corp. - by 1.5%, Boeing Co. - by 0.5% and Verizon Communications Inc. - less than 0.1%.

The drop leaders were Dow Inc., which shed 1.6%, and Travelers Cos. - by 1.5%.

The cost of Apple Inc. down 1%, Microsoft Corp. - by 0.9%, Tesla - by 1.8%.

Sportswear maker Lululemon Athletica tumbled 0.6% after Jefferies downgraded its recommendation to a sell.

Shares of GameStop Corp., the owner of a chain of video game and game electronics stores, are up 0.5%. For 8 previous trades, the value of the company collapsed by 26.7%, it was the longest drop in almost 5 years.

Important for the market this week will be fresh data from the US labor market, the publication of which is scheduled for Friday. According to the average forecast of analysts, unemployment remained at 3.5% in August, while the number of jobs in the country's economy grew by only 300 thousand (after an increase of 528 thousand a month earlier), according to Trading Economics.

The price of bitcoin, which previously fell below the psychologically important mark of $20,000, has again risen above this threshold, which contributes to the increase in stock prices of companies associated with cryptocurrencies. Thus, Coinbase Global papers rise in price by 2.8%, Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. - by 7.3%, Riot Blockchain Inc. - by 4.7%, MicroStrategy Inc. - by 1.9%.

Chinese trading platform Pinduoduo posted a 3.7-fold increase in net income in the second quarter, with adjusted per-share and revenue well above forecasts. The price of the company's American depository shares (ADS) jumped more than 18% on the Nasdaq stock exchange on this news.

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IFX Gertrude
08-31-2022, 06:01 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.96%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220831/analytics630ecf4e08ddc.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.96% to a one-month low, the S&P 500 fell 1.10% and the NASDAQ Composite index shed 1.12%.

The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading was American Express Company, which gained 0.12 points (0.08%) to close at 154.66. Quotes JPMorgan Chase & Co rose by 0.02 points (0.02%), ending trading at 114.41. Nike Inc lost 0.02 points (0.02%) to close at 107.86.

The biggest losers were Dow Inc, which shed 1.49 points or 2.82% to end the session at 51.38. Caterpillar Inc was up 2.52% or 4.84 points to close at 186.94, while Chevron Corp was down 2.44% or 4.01 points to close at 160.62. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were EPAM Systems Inc, which rose 2.09% to 424.71, Gap Inc, which gained 2.00% to close at 9.67, and Paycom Soft, which rose 1.74% to end the session at 357.29.

The biggest losers were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which shed 6.48% to close at 106.00. Shares of Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc shed 5.52% to end the session at 29.76. Quotes of The Mosaic Company decreased in price by 4.97% to 57.34.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Mobile Global Esports Inc, which rose 103.85% to hit 5.30, Newage Inc, which gained 74.20% to close at 0.36, and also shares of In8bio Inc, which rose 39.39% to end the session at 2.76.

The biggest losers were Amesite Operating Co, which shed 51.45% to close at 0.40. Shares of Baudax Bio Inc lost 43.07% and ended the session at 0.31. Quotes Clarus Therapeutics Holdings Inc fell in price by 36.94% to 0.10.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2481) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (647), while quotes of 124 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,587 companies fell in price, 1,138 rose, and 248 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was flat at 0.00% at 26.21, hitting a new monthly high.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.81%, or 14.25, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures fell 4.93%, or 4.78, to $92.23 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery fell 4.36%, or 4.49, to $98.44 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.25% to 1.00, while USD/JPY was up 0.08% to hit 138.80.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.03% to 108.75.

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IFX Gertrude
09-01-2022, 08:59 AM
Hard-working" dollar: strengthening on the euro downturn and in anticipation of positive data on employment in the US

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220901/analytics63105685840bc.jpg

The US currency is in tension before the release of the US labor market report, despite the advantage over the European one. At the same time, EUR does not leave attempts to rise and catch up.

Currently, the downward trend prevails on the markets, plunging the American and European currencies into pessimism. According to economists at Commerzbank, a long-term strengthening of the US labor market provides significant support to the greenback. Experts put an equal sign between a strong labor market and a growing dollar.

According to preliminary estimates, the positive trend in the USD will continue as long as the Federal Reserve adheres to a tight monetary policy. This situation is favorable for the US currency, but undermines the position of the European one. The EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0012 on the morning of Thursday, September 1, trying to get out of the current range. At the same time, analysts pay attention to the high probability of the pair moving towards parity.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220901/analytics6310569be9c8c.jpg

The greenback plunged a bit on Wednesday evening, August 31, after the release of macro statistics on the US labor market, but later won back short-term losses. U.S. private-sector jobs increased by 132,000 last month, according to Automatic Data Processing (ADP), an analyst firm. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. surged to 248,000 on Friday, according to preliminary forecasts. Data on unemployment in the country will be released on September 2. Experts expect this indicator to remain at the level of July (3.5%) and to increase the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the country.

Many currency strategists rely on strong US employment data and falling unemployment. They consider these indicators the most important for the Fed and its future monetary policy. However, some experts argue that the key indicator for the central bank is the level of salaries. Recall that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members of the FOMC are counting on the "cooling" of the national labor market. Representatives of the Fed are trying to avoid a situation in which wage growth provokes another round of inflation. In such a situation, the increase in the number of vacancies recorded in August is a negative signal for the central bank.

Against this background, the European currency seeks to maintain balance and get out of the price hole. However, its efforts are rewarded with rare bursts of recovery, and then a decline. Adding fuel to the fire is uncertainty about the European Central Bank's next steps on the rate. According to Nordea economists, next week the central bank will raise the rate by 75 basis points. The bank believes that even negative forecasts for economic growth in the region will not interfere with this.

At present, the inflation rate in the eurozone remains stably high. According to current reports, inflation in EU countries reached an impressive 9.1% in August. Previously, this figure was 8.9%. The current situation undermines the euro's position, which is hardly kept afloat. According to analysts, the weakening of the euro against the dollar is due to the active tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. At the same time, the current parity between currencies may disappear when a compromise is reached in the EU on tightening the monetary policy or when inflation in the United States returns to the target of 2%. However, both situations are unlikely, experts say.

According to experts, the 1:1 ratio between the dollar and the euro will remain until the EU countries begin to tighten monetary policy following the example of the United States. However, there are many pitfalls here, as the ECB needs to find a compromise between all the countries of the euro bloc.

Many experts believe that by the end of 2022 the balance of power in the EUR/USD pair will change, due to which the topic of parity will be removed. Experts allow changes in the ECB's actions regarding monetary policy. The same is possible with regard to the Fed, which is worried about labor market problems and galloping inflation. According to analysts, the pair will tend to the usual ratio of 1.0500-1.1000. "In the event of a sharp turnaround, the EU economy will receive a solid bonus for the growth of exports and the economy at the expense of the US and China," the experts emphasize.

Market participants are concerned about the questions: will the Fed take a decisive approach to monetary policy? Will the ECB follow suit? Many traders and investors are skeptical about the immediate prospects for the dollar and the euro. At the same time, analysts expect a reduction in key rates in the second half of 2023. The implementation of such a scenario will weaken the greenback and limit the potential for its strengthening.

In the current situation, some experts believe that the markets are wishful thinking, expecting less rigidity from the Fed in the process of forming monetary policy. In this matter, much depends on the level of unemployment in the country. Excessive strengthening of the labor market in the US is pushing the central bank to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible.

Fed officials are stepping up the pace of this tightening, emphasizing that they are ready to temporarily sacrifice the economy for the sake of curbing inflation. However, a few months ago they said they would try to avoid a recession. However, despite the economic upheavals, the US currency remains strong and remains competitive in the global market.

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IFX Gertrude
09-02-2022, 06:52 AM
EUR/USD. Something is wrong in the Forex kingdom, although the euro's problems are still countless, it, as if distraught, craves revenge, and the dollar, not wanting to give up the crown, weaves its insidious network

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220901/analytics63111763966ad.jpg

The dollar starts September with a combative mood, trading near 20-year highs and benefiting from flows to safe havens.

Fears for the fate of the global economy and the drumbeat of leading central banks are rattling traders' nerves.

The greenback is also popular with investors, as they need to buy USD to maintain their margin positions in the face of declining stock indices.

Players' nervousness is compounded by the fact that stocks are entering a historically weak period for the market.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 0.5% in September.

This year, everything speaks in favor of repeating historical trends.

Over the past two months, the volume of a net short position against S&P 500 futures has grown significantly and reached its highest value in two years.

The index just ended the month with its fourth consecutive daily decline on Wednesday.

Investors are still under the impression after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statement last Friday that the central bank's key rate should be raised to a level that will allow inflation to be controlled, despite the risks of recession. The S&P 500 index since last Thursday, the last day before Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, lost more than 5%.

"The market has received a message that the Federal Reserve is going to fight inflation at any cost. We don't think we've seen a bottom this year," strategists at Optimal Capital Advisors said.

On Wednesday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, continued this topic. She said that the US central bank needs to raise the base rate from the current target range of 2.25%-2.5% above 4% by the beginning of next year and leave it at this level for some time to reduce inflation.

Against this background, the yield of two-year US Treasury bonds, which changes in accordance with expectations regarding interest rates, reached the highest level since the end of 2007 yesterday, rising above 3.5%.

The higher yield of treasuries pushes up the dollar as investors sell debt denominated in other currencies to get a higher premium on US treasuries.

"It doesn't look like they can actually offer decent resistance to the dollar, given such a gloomy global outlook," Rabobank strategists said, referring to other major currencies. "If you sell the dollar, what will you buy?" they said.

The greenback has been growing for three consecutive months, while the euro fell by 6.5% over the same period.

The greenback's growth against the single currency reflects concerns that a sharp jump in energy prices in the eurozone, caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, will lead to higher inflation and push the European economy into recession.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220901/analytics6311198c77261.jpg

"High inflation and gas supplies are still serious problems in the euro area. We think this will continue to put downward pressure on the single currency," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts said.

As data released on Wednesday showed, inflation in the eurozone rose to a record high of 9.1% in August. This strengthened the case for further significant rate hikes by the ECB to tame it.

"Before the start of the Jackson Hole symposium, the market expected the ECB to raise the rate by 1 bps by the October meeting, and since then these expectations have only increased. However, a rate hike is unlikely to strongly support the euro against the greenback, given that investors are likely to remain focused on the risks of stagflation in the eurozone and given the safe haven function for the dollar," Rabobank analysts said.

"We maintain our EUR/USD target at 0.9500 for one month and still expect the widespread strengthening of the US dollar to persist over the next six months or so," they added.

Another unexpected rise in inflation increases speculation about a 75 bps ECB rate hike at next week's meeting. However, MUFG Bank economists do not believe that the euro will benefit from this sharp tightening.

"Market participants currently estimate a 71 bps rate hike by the ECB policy meeting on September 8, as well as the fact that it will continue to raise rates to 1.50% by the end of the year. Market expectations of a sharper tightening of policy were supported by the hawkish comments of ECB policy makers after Jackson Hole and the recent announcement of another unexpected increase in inflation in the eurozone. However, we are not convinced that a sharp tightening of the ECB's policy will support the steady growth of the euro, as the risks of recession in the eurozone remain elevated," they said.

The eurozone, in case of termination of pipeline gas supplies from Russia, may face a recession in the second half of 2022, analysts at Fitch Ratings believe.

"The onset of recession in the eurozone is likely in the second half of 2022, and in 2023, Germany and Italy will experience an annual decline in GDP. Economic vulnerability in the event of termination of pipeline gas supplies remains high, despite recent active efforts to diversify import sources, in particular LNG," Fitch said.

With the passing of the summer heat, as well as news that European countries are filling their storage facilities at a faster pace than expected, energy prices in the eurozone have decreased from peak values.

However, the European economy, and especially Germany, remain vulnerable to the onset of winter if Russia stops supplying gas, given that storage facilities cover only 25-30% of winter consumption.

"It is very difficult to predict how the situation with gas will develop in the European Union in winter, since much will depend, among other things, on the weather and the volume of gas coming from alternative sources to Russia," said the deputy head of the Directorate of the European Commission for Energy in the relevant committee of the European Parliament.

The European Commission expects gas prices in Europe to remain at an elevated level in the coming winter and fall in 2024-2025.

"We expect that prices will remain at an elevated level in the coming winter, they will fall again in 2024-2025. But they are subject to some fluctuations," EC spokesman Tim McPhie said.

Gas prices and sentiment in Europe are now undergoing a serious stress test, as the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline closed on August 31 for maintenance. All this warns against excessive enthusiasm for the recovery of the European currency at this stage, ING strategists note.

The EUR/USD pair ended Wednesday's session with an increase of 0.3%, near 1.0057, having reached a weekly high at 1.0080 during yesterday's trading. At the same time, the USD index fell by 0.1% to 108.65 points.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220901/analytics63111a0ac39e2.jpg

The euro was supported by expectations that the ECB will raise the interest rate by 75 basis points next week.Meanwhile, dollar shorts were mainly caused by the rebalancing of portfolios at the end of the month, turning into consolidation.

The EUR/USD pair lost its bullish momentum on Thursday and plunged by almost 150 points from Wednesday's closing levels. At the same time, the USD index rose to the highest levels since June 2002, coming close to 110.

The Fed's tough stance is still working in favor of the greenback, and the energy crisis in Europe is against the euro, which has not gone away with the correction of gas prices over the past three days.

"Even after reaching new records, the dollar has room for further growth, which is facilitated by the prospects of a global recession and, in particular, the energy crisis in Europe," Generali analysts said.

Fears related to the global recession were exacerbated by China, which announced that Chengdu, a city with a population of about 21 million people, was put on lockdown due to coronavirus.

Reflecting investors' unwillingness to take risks, key Wall Street indexes mostly declined on Thursday.

Friday's US employment report for August carries risks for stocks, because if it is strong, it will increase the prospects for further Fed rate hikes.

The Fed's determination is beyond doubt, since it once led the movement among major central banks to aggressively tighten monetary policy.

As for the ECB, it has yet to prove that it is really ready to act, and not just talk.

"The ECB has yet to convince the markets with its comments to prove that it is willing to endure economic pain in order to effectively combat price risks. Only at this point will the euro be able to really benefit from the ECB's monetary policy on a more sustainable basis," noted the strategists of Commerzbank.

"In a crisis, the market is likely to sell the euro as an initial reaction due to fears of a recession. The ECB's determination to fight inflation is likely to have a positive impact on the single currency only at a later stage if at that time the ECB really sticks to its approach. This means that euro bulls will probably have to be patient for some time," they added.

"The markets are now putting in quotes an increase in the ECB rate by 167 bps in total by the end of the year.

However, the recent narrowing of spreads on two-year swaps between the euro and the dollar may have already ended, and a reversal if the ECB does not meet the new hawkish expectations embedded in prices could send EUR/USD to new lows next week," ING analysts said.

They predict that the EUR/USD pair will remain under pressure in the range of 0.9900-1.0100.

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IFX Gertrude
09-05-2022, 08:25 AM
US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.07%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220905/analytics631564f264acf.jpg

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.07% to a one-month low, the S&P 500 fell 1.07%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.31%.

Chevron Corp was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 2.31 points or 1.49% to close at 157.85. Salesforce.com Inc rose 0.16 points or 0.10% to close at 153.69. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 0.01 points or 0.03% to close at 35.27.

The losers were 3M Company shares, which lost 3.98 points or 3.17% to end the session at 121.65. Honeywell International Inc. shares rose 2.01% or 3.84 points to close at 186.89, while Procter & Gamble Company shed 1.78% or 2.48 points to close at 137.16.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 4.34% to hit 106.86, Hess Corporation, which gained 3.83% to close at 120.91, and also shares of The Mosaic Company, which rose 3.79% to end the session at 54.84.

The biggest losers were DISH Network Corporation, which shed 4.49% to close at 17.01. Shares of Generac Holdings Inc shed 4.13% to end the session at 223.39. Quotes of Zebra Technologies Corporation decreased in price by 3.92% to 297.60.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Venus Concept Inc, which rose 54.87% to hit 0.54, Sunrise New Energy Co Ltd, which gained 31.46% to close at 2.80. , as well as shares of Advanced Human Imaging Ltd ADR, which rose 29.90% to close the session at 1.26.

The drop leaders were PolyPid, which fell 73.47% to close at 1.43. Shares of Shuttle Pharmaceuticals Inc lost 71.56% to end the session at 14.90. Quotes of ShiftPixy Inc decreased in price by 33.92% to 13.60.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,797) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,297), while quotes of 136 shares remained virtually unchanged.

On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,338 companies fell in price, 1,371 rose, and 257 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.35% to 25.47.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.70%, or 12.05, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 0.59%, or 0.51, to $87.12 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 1.02%, or 0.94, to $93.30 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.17% to 1.00, while USD/JPY fell 0.02% to hit 140.18.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.12% to 109.55.

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IFX Gertrude
09-06-2022, 09:43 AM
Euro, move forward: the dollar has slowed down! EUR/USD ineptly puts pressure on gas

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220906/analytics6316ea79ca592.jpg

The euro seeks to wrap itself in favor of the gas problems faced by the countries of the eurozone. Most often, the EUR loses, but now there is a small chance for its short-term recovery amid a slowing USD rally.

The greenback took a breather on the morning of Tuesday, September 6, to recover from a heady rally. This strategy has led to some decline from all-time highs against the euro, but it is still too early to draw conclusions. The threat of a recession looms over both currencies. Adding fuel to the fire is the high likelihood of a sharp rise in US interest rates.

A short-term slowdown in the growth of the USD against key currencies and a slight subsidence against the European one was caused by expectations of statistical data on the index of business activity in the US services sector (ISM). According to preliminary estimates, this figure fell to 55.1% in August from 56.7% in July. Significant support for the US currency is provided by expectations about the rate hike by the Federal Reserve. According to analysts, the central bank is "at a low start" in this matter. At the same time, 62% of specialists include in prices its increase by an additional 0.75 percentage points, up to 3-3.25% per annum.

In such a situation, the dynamics of the euro, which has to withstand the gas crisis in the eurozone, is in distress. At the beginning of this week, the euro fell by 0.7% to 0.9880. According to experts, this is the lowest figure in the last 20 years. The current energy crisis has seriously shaken the euro's position. The driver of this fall was the actions of the Russian authorities, who announced a complete suspension of the supply of natural gas through the Nord Stream pipeline. According to analysts, this will increase the economic problems of European businesses and households.

Against this background, mass short positions on the European and British currencies were recorded. Experts fear that this trend will strengthen. According to currency strategists at ING Bank, "gas pressures sent the EUR/USD pair to new lows this year." Recall that earlier this week, the pair fell below 0.9900 for the first time since October 2002.

According to ING economists, in the near future the EUR/USD pair will continue to fall to a new support level in the range of 0.9600-0.9650. However, this is an extremely low level for a pair, which threatens the existence of the single currency. The EUR/USD pair cruised near 0.9963 on the morning of Tuesday, September 6, winning back previous losses. However, experts warn against euphoria, as the dollar is ready to brace itself and continue its rally, displacing the euro.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220906/analytics6316ead1e21fb.jpg

In such a situation, many analysts see a way out in a further increase in the key rate by the European Central Bank. However, ING economists do not agree with this, who consider it excessive to raise the rate by the central bank by 75 bps at once. According to experts, this will not solve the current problems of the eurozone. ING bank believes that the rate hike by 75 bps at the next meeting, scheduled for Thursday, September 8, is "too big a step for the ECB, which will not help the euro." You should expect it to increase by 50 bps, analysts conclude.

Expectations about a sharp rate hike by the ECB (by 75 bps) are fueled by growing inflation in the euro area, the threat of a recession and disappointing macroeconomic data for the region. The icing on the cake was the deepening of the energy crisis in Europe. This undermines the demand for a single currency, experts emphasize. According to current reports, in July, retail sales in the euro area fell by 0.9% in annual terms. At the same time, markets expected a decline of 0.7%. In addition, the Sentix investor confidence index fell to -31.8 points in September from -25.2 points in August. Against this backdrop, Sentix analysts noted a "clear deterioration" in the economic situation in the eurozone, stressing that this is the lowest rate since May 2020.

The US currency continues to benefit from the current situation, despite a short-term subsidence. Many experts agree on the long-term upward trend of the dollar, which has been observed since mid-2021. Experts believe that a significant divergence in the monetary strategies of central banks is a significant driver of the growth of the USD against the euro. It is noted that the ECB is still "two steps behind the Fed" in terms of raising rates. The situation was not saved even by its increase by 50 points in July. However, the ECB may revise its strategy and raise the rate at the next meeting by 50-75 bps.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220906/analytics6316eab65cf3f.jpg

Another important factor in the greenback's growth is the stability of the US economy. According to analysts, the US is relatively easy to survive the gas crisis, while selling energy to Europe. In the long term, this state of affairs plays against the ECB and the countries of the European bloc, but it plays into the hands of the Federal Reserve. In such a situation, it is difficult for the ECB not only to raise, but also to keep rates at a high level, unlike the Fed. Under such a scenario, a deep economic downturn in the eurozone is possible, experts warn.

The current market environment creates a bullish outlook for the dollar index (USDX). Currently, the bulls on the dollar are in a strong position, pushing the bears. However, the situation may change at any time. In the short and medium term, analysts allow it to rise to an impressive 120 points, that is, an increase of 9%. In a favorable scenario, USDX will head towards the peaks of 2001-2002. However, experts consider this option extreme, although they allow its implementation until the end of 2022.

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IFX Gertrude
09-07-2022, 08:35 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.55%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220907/analytics63180a461a2cf.jpg

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.55% to a one-month low, the S&P 500 fell 0.41%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.74%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Visa Inc Class A, which gained 0.88 points (0.45%) to close at 198.64. Boeing Co rose 0.57 points (0.38%) to close at 152.39. Johnson & Johnson rose 0.44 points or 0.27% to close at 163.18.

The losers were 3M Company, which shed 5.05 points or 4.15% to end the session at 116.60. Intel Corporation was up 2.75% or 0.86 points to close at 30.36, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc was down 1.51% or 4.99 points to close at 326. .49.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Rollins Inc, which rose 6.05% to 35.78, Enphase Energy Inc, which gained 4.93% to close at 292.82, and SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which rose 4.22% to end the session at 278.38.

The biggest losers were Moderna Inc, which shed 6.13% to close at 130.08. Shares of Church & Dwight Company Inc shed 4.69% to end the session at 80.23.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Shuttle Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 91.28% to hit 28.50, IVERIC bio Inc, which gained 66.31% to close at 15.70, and also shares of HyreCar Inc, which rose 58.12% to end the session at 1.27. Shares of Creatd Inc were the biggest losers, losing 48.11% to close at 0.19.

Shares of Addentax Group Corp lost 39.52% and ended the session at 5.80. Quotes of Rigetti Computing Inc decreased in price by 37.09% to 2.29.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2121) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1009), while quotes of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,468 companies fell in price, 1,299 rose, and 194 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 3.54% to 26.91, hitting a new monthly high.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.62%, or 10.75, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures fell 0.14%, or 0.12, to $86.75 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery fell 3.19%, or 3.05, to $92.69 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.24% to 0.99, while USD/JPY edged up 1.58% to hit 142.80.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.66% to 110.24.

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IFX Gertrude
09-08-2022, 07:00 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.40%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220908/analytics63195de3126e8.jpg

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.40%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.83%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 2.14%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was 3M Company, which gained 3.95 points or 3.39% to close at 120.55. Nike Inc rose 3.33 points or 3.17% to close at 108.48. Home Depot Inc rose 2.74% or 7.93 points to close at 297.47.

The biggest losers were Chevron Corp, which shed 2.01 points or 1.28% to end the session at 155.11. Verizon Communications Inc was up 0.02 points (0.05%) to close at 41.08, while Caterpillar Inc was up 0.20 points (0.11%) to close at 180. 86.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which rose 11.85% to 311.36, Enphase Energy Inc, which gained 8.02% to close at 316.31, and also shares of DexCom Inc, which rose 7.73% to end the session at 88.37.

The biggest losers were APA Corporation, which shed 3.04% to close at 36.67. Shares of Old Dominion Freight Line Inc shed 2.95% to end the session at 263.98. Quotes of Halliburton Company decreased in price by 2.85% to 28.68.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Imara Inc, which rose 71.79% to hit 2.01, Shuttle Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 27.72% to close at 36.40, and shares of Spero Therapeutics Inc, which rose 26.55% to end the session at 1.43.

The biggest losers were Cleantech Acquisition Corp, which shed 28.36% to close at 6.77. Shares of Newage Inc lost 25.20% and ended the session at 0.09. First Wave BioPharma Inc (NASDAQ:FWBI) was down 23.22% to 3.24.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2,400) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (723), while quotes of 131 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2715 companies rose in price, 1027 fell, and 217 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 8.44% to 24.64.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.92%, or 15.70, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures fell 5.96%, or 5.18, to $81.70 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery fell 5.70%, or 5.29, to $87.54 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 1.08% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY edged up 0.72% to hit 143.82.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.62% to 109.52.

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IFX Gertrude
09-09-2022, 08:11 AM
US stocks close higher, Dow Jones gains 0.61%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220909/analytics631aaff3efb84.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.61%, the S&P 500 rose 0.66% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.60%.

Salesforce.com Inc was the leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 3.62 points or 2.36% to close at 156.90. JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 2.70 points or 2.33% to close at 118.60. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 4.82 points or 1.46% to close at 335.38.

The losers were 3M Company shares, which lost 1.28 points or 1.06% to end the session at 119.27. Apple Inc was up 1.51 points (0.97%) to close at 154.45, while Honeywell International Inc was down 1.27 points (0.67%) to close at 187. 82.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 18.85% to 708.85, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which gained 7.89% to close at 30 .62, as well as shares of Invesco Plc, which rose 4.77% to close the session at 17.36.

The biggest losers were McCormick & Company Incorporated, which shed 6.71% to close at 79.30. Shares of Kraft Heinz Co lost 3.38% to end the session at 36.06. Quotes Campbell Soup Company fell in price by 2.98% to 47.84.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were ShiftPixy Inc, which rose 176.54% to 31.00, Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 51.01% to close at 27.03, and shares of Rubius Therapeutics Inc, which rose 48.58% to close the session at 1.29.

The drop leaders were Troika Media Group Inc, which shed 26.83% to close at 0.48. Shares of Ensysce Biosciences Inc shed 17.71% to end the session at 0.33. Quotes of Biophytis fell in price by 17.67% to 0.91.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,743) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,342), and quotes of 154 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2274 companies rose in price, 1485 fell, and 268 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 4.18% to 23.61.

Gold Futures for December delivery lost 0.47%, or 8.20, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 0.99%, or 0.81, to $82.75 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 0.59%, or 0.52, to $88.52 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged, 0.01% to 1.00, while USD/JPY was up 0.25% to hit 144.05.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.17% to 109.65.

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IFX Gertrude
09-12-2022, 08:59 AM
EUR/USD: price tug of war continues

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220912/analytics631ed0e27ca76.jpg

The US and European currencies remain in the stage of confrontation, intensely competing with each other. However, the euro often loses in this race, periodically losing to the stronger dollar. Against this background, analysts expect parity in the EUR/USD pair to be maintained in the short and medium term planning horizons.

The euro jumped at the beginning of the new week, rising slightly thanks to the European Central Bank's hawkish signals. The euro reached a three-week high against the US currency, as representatives of the ECB decided to stick to an aggressive tightening of monetary policy.

Recall that following the results of the next meeting, the ECB raised its key rate to a record 75 bps. These are quite decisive actions taken after the July rate hike by 50 bps, etc. Such a move was included in the debt market quotes, so it did not come as a surprise. According to analysts, the hawkish tone of the central bank provided significant support to the single currency, although this did not save it from another fall below the parity level. The EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0088 on Monday morning, September 12, partly recouping previous losses.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220912/analytics631ed0f228ffc.jpg

According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, "a weak euro spurs inflation." Against this background, more drastic steps in the process of raising the rate are acceptable in the near future. Representatives of the central bank also noted that its next rises are possible at the next five meetings. In addition, the next two official events will end with an increase in rates, according to the department.

Against this background, the US currency plunged slightly against the European one in anticipation of reports on the US inflation rate (CPI). On Tuesday, September 13, markets will focus on data on annual US inflation. According to preliminary forecasts, in August, the growth of consumer prices in the United States will show a slowdown for the second consecutive month (from the current 8.5% to 8.1%). At the same time, investors and traders expect that in September the Federal Reserve will raise the discount rate by another 75 bps. This opinion is held by 90% of analysts, and the remaining 10% expect a rate increase to 50 bps.

Some experts consider the deterioration of the August CPI indicators in the United States to be one of the potential risks of a decline in the greenback. According to analysts, another weak macroeconomic report casts doubt on market expectations for a third consecutive rate hike of 75 bps. However, some experts are optimistic. Wells Fargo currency strategists believe that despite the aggressive pace of tightening of the monetary policy by a number of central banks, the Fed will remain the leader in this matter. Against this background, it is quite possible to strengthen the USD until the end of 2022, analysts say.

A similar position is held by Larry Summers, a former US Treasury Secretary and current professor at Harvard University. He believes that the greenback has excellent chances for further strengthening. At the same time, the specialist takes into account a number of fundamental factors contributing to the growth of the latter. According to Summers, America has a "huge advantage": it does not depend on "extremely expensive foreign energy carriers." An additional advantage is the fact that the Fed is moving towards tightening monetary policy faster than other central banks. "This allows the dollar to remain a safe haven currency, and the United States - a Mecca for capital. As a result, all the financial resources of the world flow into USD," Summers sums up. In such a situation, many experts expect the greenback to strengthen in the medium and long term.

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IFX Gertrude
09-13-2022, 08:16 AM
US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.71%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220913/analytics631ff58fca682.jpg

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.71%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.06%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 1.27%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Apple Inc, which gained 6.06 points or 3.85% to close at 163.43. Quotes of American Express Company rose by 4.01 points (2.53%), closing the session at 162.45. Salesforce Inc rose 3.04 points or 1.87% to close at 165.63.

The biggest losers were Amgen Inc, which shed 10.07 points or 4.07% to end the session at 237.62. Home Depot Inc was up 2.23 points (0.74%) to close at 297.54, while Johnson & Johnson was down 0.07 points (0.04%) to end at 165. .64.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were DXC Technology Co, which rose 5.98% to hit 28.36, APA Corporation, which gained 5.01% to close at 40.00, and shares of Fortinet Inc, which rose 4.20% to end the session at 55.84.

The biggest losers were The Mosaic Company, which shed 6.76% to close at 52.44. Shares of Amgen Inc lost 4.07% to end the session at 237.62. Quotes of CF Industries Holdings Inc decreased in price by 4.05% to 99.48.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Neurobo Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 101.30% to hit 0.56, InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 70.42% to close at 18.78, and also shares of Ventyx Biosciences Inc, which rose 64.98% to end the session at 38.11.

The biggest losers were Tuesday Morning Corp, which shed 31.19% to close at 0.19. Shares of WeTrade Group Inc lost 30.19% and ended the session at 1.11. Akari Therapeutics PLC was down 27.88% to 0.75.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2,360) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (764), while quotes of 160 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2431 companies rose in price, 1384 fell, and 259 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 4.74% to 23.87.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.43%, or 7.45, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for October delivery rose 1.36%, or 1.18, to $87.97 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 1.44%, or 1.34, to $94.18 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.81% to hit 1.01, while USD/JPY edged up 0.21% to hit 142.82.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.60% to 108.08.

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IFX Gertrude
09-14-2022, 05:26 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 3.94%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220914/analytics63214708126bf.jpg

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 3.94% to a one-month low, the S&P 500 fell 4.32%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 5.16%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, losing 3.09 points or 1.90% to close at 159.41. Quotes of The Travelers Companies Inc fell by 3.11 points (1.88%) to end trading at 162.22. Walmart Inc lost 2.85 points or 2.06% to close at 135.22.

The losers were Boeing Co shares, which lost 11.41 points or 7.19% to end the session at 147.31. Intel Corporation was up 2.27 points (7.19%) to close at 29.29, while Home Depot Inc was down 19.61 points (6.59%) to close at 277. 93.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Corteva Inc, which rose 0.87% to hit 62.65, Twitter Inc, which gained 0.70% to close at 41.70, and shares CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 0.67% to end the session at 100.15.

The biggest losers were Eastman Chemical Company, which shed 11.34% to close at 84.11. Shares of NVIDIA Corporation lost 9.47% and ended the session at 131.31. Quotes of Meta Platforms Inc decreased in price by 9.37% to 153.13.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Akero Therapeutics Inc, which rose 136.76% to hit 29.05, Aditx Therapeutics Inc, which gained 113.75% to close at 0.37, and also shares of Comera Life Sciences Holdings Inc, which rose 100.00% to end the session at 3.86.

The biggest losers were Cardiff Oncology Inc, which shed 41.12% to close at 1.89. Shares of Rent the Runway Inc shed 38.74% to end the session at 3.02. Quotes of InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 35.73% to 12.07.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2827) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (354), while quotes of 82 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,015 stocks fell, 811 rose, and 188 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 14.24% to 27.27, hitting a new monthly high.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 1.64%, or 28.50, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures fell 0.26%, or 0.23, to $87.55 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery fell 0.67%, or 0.63, to $93.37 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 1.44% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY edged up 1.23% to hit 144.59.

Futures on the USD index rose 1.37% to 109.58.

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IFX Gertrude
09-15-2022, 06:25 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 0.10%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220915/analytics632299858f49d.jpg

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.10%, the S&P 500 rose 0.34%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.74%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 3.86 points or 2.42% to close at 163.27. Quotes Johnson & Johnson rose by 3.33 points (2.06%), ending trading at 164.66. Merck & Company Inc rose 1.36 points or 1.59% to close at 86.95.

The losers were shares of Honeywell International Inc, which lost 5.01 points or 2.71% to end the session at 179.97. 3M Company was up 2.44% or 2.94 points to close at 117.53, while Dow Inc was down 1.67% or 0.80 points to close at 47.07. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 components in today's trading were Coterra Energy Inc, which rose 7.22% to hit 32.23, APA Corporation, which gained 6.72% to close at 41.74, and shares of Moderna Inc, which rose 6.17% to end the session at 139.40.

The biggest losers were Nucor Corp, which shed 11.31% to close at 120.71. Shares of Centene Corp lost 6.79% to end the session at 83.92. Quotes of DISH Network Corporation decreased in price by 6.27% to 17.18.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 53.87% to hit 0.36, Aileron Therapeutics Inc, which gained 38.49% to close at 0.27, and also shares of Dawson Geophysical Company, which rose 41.44% to close the session at 1.57.

The biggest losers were Neurobo Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 43.61% to close at 16.86. Shares of Vintage Wine Estates Inc shed 40.33% to end the session at 3.30. Quotes of Aditx Therapeutics Inc decreased in price by 38.22% to 11.43.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,578) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,506), while quotes of 124 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,956 stocks fell, 1,770 rose, and 254 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 4.07% to 26.16.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.63%, or 10.90, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 1.68%, or 1.47, to $88.78 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 1.23%, or 1.15, to $94.32 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.08% to 1.00, while USD/JPY fell 0.97% to hit 143.15.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.15% to 109.36.

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IFX Gertrude
09-16-2022, 06:07 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.56%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220916/analytics6323e9441be02.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.56% to a one-month low, the S&P 500 fell 1.13% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.43%.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was the top performer in the Dow Jones Index today, up 13.14 points or 2.58% to close at 522.91. JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 1.75 points or 1.51% to close at 117.87. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 4.36 points or 1.33% to close at 331.62.

The losers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 5.50 points or 3.43% to end the session at 154.78. Microsoft Corporation was up 2.71% or 6.84 points to close at 245.38, while Visa Inc Class A was down 2.03% or 4.04 points to close at 195. .37.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Humana Inc, which rose 8.37% to 497.24, Wynn Resorts Limited, which gained 7.48% to close at 65.23, and shares of Paramount Global Class B, which rose 5.16% to close the session at 23.05.

The losers were Adobe Systems Incorporated, which shed 16.79% to close at 309.13. Shares of Albemarle Corp shed 6.49% to end the session at 286.75. West Pharmaceutical Services Inc lost 5.91% to 273.63.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Heartbeam Inc, which rose 85.60% to hit 2.32, Neurobo Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 47.21% to close at 24.82, and shares of Nabriva Therapeutics AG, which rose 40.65% to end the session at 0.27.

The drop leaders were Shuttle Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 55.65% to close at 16.63. Shares of Eloxx Pharmaceuticals Inc lost 40.97% to end the session at 0.22. Quotes Color Star Technology Co Ltd fell in price by 39.54% to 0.07.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2188) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (909), and quotes of 125 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1991 stocks fell, 1759 rose, and 265 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.42% to 26.27.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 2.08%, or 35.55, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures fell 3.84%, or 3.40, to $85.08 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery fell 3.56%, or 3.35, to $90.75 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.20% to 1.00, while USD/JPY was up 0.23% to hit 143.48.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.06% to 109.44.

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IFX Gertrude
09-19-2022, 05:40 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.45%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220919/analytics6327e1684d934.jpg

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.45% to hit a monthly low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.72%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.90%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Home Depot Inc, which gained 4.43 points (1.63%) to close at 275.97. Amgen Inc rose 3.48 points or 1.53% to close at 231.14. Johnson & Johnson rose 2.52 points or 1.53% to close at 167.60.

The losers were Boeing Co shares, which fell 5.49 points or 3.67% to end the session at 144.29. Chevron Corp was up 2.60% or 4.17 points to close at 156.45, while Walt Disney Company was down 2.28% or 2.52 points to close at 108. 25.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Iron Mountain Incorporated, which rose 3.35% to hit 55.29, Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which gained 3.09% to close at 43.71, and also Dollar Tree Inc, which rose 2.89% to end the session at 141.92.

The biggest losers were FedEx Corporation, which shed 21.40% to close at 161.02. Shares of WestRock Co lost 11.48% to end the session at 34.15. Quotes of International Paper fell in price by 11.21% to 35.23.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Panbela Therapeutics Inc, which rose 53.06% to hit 0.58, Applied Opt, which gained 50.40% to close at 3.76, and shares of Axcella Health Inc, which rose 29.57% to end the session at 2.41.

The biggest losers were Aditx Therapeutics Inc, which shed 58.52% to close at 4.31. Shares of Esports Entertainment Group Inc lost 46.15% and ended the session at 0.18. Shuttle Pharmaceuticals Inc lost 45.94% to 8.99.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2294) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (816), and quotes of 121 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,586 stocks fell, 1,158 rose, and 233 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.11% to 26.30.

Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.38%, or 6.35, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI October futures rose 0.29%, or 0.25, to $85.35 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 0.81%, or 0.74, to $91.58 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.10% to 1.00, while USD/JPY fell 0.40% to hit 142.95.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.02% to 109.43.

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IFX Gertrude
09-20-2022, 10:04 AM
Wave your hand to the yen: the dollar is preparing to take off

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220920/analytics632972de12605.jpg

This week, traders' nerves are stretched to the limit. Everyone is waiting for the Fed's verdict on interest rates and the next jump in the dollar. According to forecasts, it will grow the most against the yen. The divergence in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan was the main reason for the weakening of the yen this year.

Due to the large difference in interest rates, the JPY has fallen by more than 20% against the dollar since January. This is the strongest annual decline in the Japanese currency in the entire history of observations.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220920/analytics632972ea88e4d.jpg

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that the yen has not yet reached the bottom. Since everything now points to a further increase in monetary divergence, new anti-records are predicted for the yen.

According to experts, the JPY may test another 24-year low against the dollar in the coming days. Two factors will contribute to the sharp fall of the yen.

Firstly, this is the fifth increase in interest rates in America this year. And secondly, the BOJ's confirmation of its depth of strategy.

The degree of nervousness is increased by the fact that the Fed and the BOJ will announce their decisions on interest rates with a difference of only a few hours.

In light of the latest US inflation data, which turned out to be worse than forecasts, the market expects the Fed to raise the indicator by 75 or 100 bps.

Such a hawkish scenario can provide a powerful momentum for the dollar and a strong tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. And the speech of the head of the BOJ will disperse the asset even more.

Goldman Sachs analysts are confident that this week BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will again leave all the parameters of the monetary policy unchanged: yield curve control, asset purchase program and interest rate recommendations.

According to experts, the BOJ is unlikely to get off its dovish route, even despite signs of increased price pressure.

Statistics on inflation in Japan for August were released this morning. As the report showed, the core consumer price index exceeded the growth forecast on an annualized basis and reached 2.8%.

Thus, inflation in the country exceeded the BOJ's target, which is at the level of 2%, for the past five consecutive months.

This significantly increases concerns that the price pressure may last much longer than the BOJ expects. But it is not worth speculating about the possible capitulation of the BOJ yet.

The news about the acceleration of inflation on the eve of the next meeting of the Japanese central bank really puts Kuroda in a difficult position.

He will have to try hard to give a logical explanation for the need to continue monetary incentives when price growth has significantly overtaken the 2% target.

However, it is unlikely that the current inflation, which remains relatively low compared to other countries, will force the head of the BOJ to change shoes abruptly.

Earlier, Kuroda has repeatedly stated that the central bank will keep interest rates at extremely low levels until solid wage growth makes inflation more stable.

The firm determination of Japanese politicians to adhere to the dovish strategy is also evidenced by today's decision of the government.

On Tuesday, Japan's finance ministry said it would spend 3.48 trillion yen ($24 billion) from budget reserves to cope with the continued price increases.

The decision was made at a meeting of the cabinet of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose approval rating has recently dropped significantly.

In order to regain the favor of the Japanese suffering from the rising cost of living, the official is ready to provide a new package of financial assistance, i.e. to eliminate the symptom, not the cause of the disease.

As you can see, Japan is not going to deploy an anti-inflationary company yet, as other countries do. However, the status of an outsider does not bode well for its national currency.

The US Fed is not the only one who is going to raise interest rates this week, but also the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. This will further aggravate the situation of the yen, analysts believe.

But the main beneficiary of the isolated BOJ position will still be the USD/JPY pair. According to forecasts, it will break through the key threshold of 145 if the Fed's actions turn out to be even more hawkish this time.

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IFX Gertrude
09-21-2022, 05:19 AM
US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.01%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220921/analytics632a82e1bb176.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.01% to a one-month low, the S&P 500 index fell 1.13%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.95%. The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Apple Inc, which gained 2.42 points (1.57%) to close at 156.90. Quotes Boeing Co rose by 1.06 points (0.73%), ending trading at 145.94. 3M Company lost 0.12 points or 0.10% to close at 116.52.

The biggest losers were Nike Inc, which shed 4.79 points or 4.47% to end the session at 102.42. Caterpillar Inc was up 2.26% or 4.12 points to close at 177.99, while Home Depot Inc was down 2.23% or 6.25 points to close at 274. 17.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Wynn Resorts Limited, which rose 2.90% to hit 67.80, Valero Energy Corporation, which gained 2.63% to close at 107.42, and also shares of Expedia Inc, which rose 2.09% to end the session at 104.63.

The fallers were shares of Ford Motor Company, which fell 12.32% to close at 13.09. Shares of Iron Mountain Incorporated shed 9.84% to end the session at 50.65. Quotes of Generac Holdings Inc decreased in price by 6.99% to 183.49.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Sobr Safe Inc, which rose 234.98% to 3.05, Powerbridge Technologies Co Ltd, which gained 60.62% to close at 2.20. as well as Neurobo Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 42.40% to end the session at 20.79.

The biggest losers were Virios Therapeutics Llc, which shed 75.50% to close at 0.49. Pagaya shares shed 67.24% to end the session at 2.29. Quotes of Integrated Media Technology Ltd decreased in price by 46.07% to 1.03.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2599) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (546), while quotes of 129 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,705 companies fell in price, 1,091 rose, and 227 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.43% to 27.16.

Gold futures for December delivery shed 0.29% or 4.80 to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 1.19%, or 1.02, to $84.34 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery fell 1.14%, or 1.05, to $90.95 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was flat at 0.49% at 1.00, while USD/JPY edged up 0.35% to hit 143.71.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.39% to 109.89.

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IFX Gertrude
09-22-2022, 06:00 AM
BTC quotes unexpectedly turned to growth

Bitcoin began to rise on Wednesday morning, when this article was written, its price had reached $19,123.

According to virtual asset price tracking website CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, the highest value of bitcoin reached $19,548, and the lowest was $18,813.

As a result of the past 24 hours, the price of bitcoin rose by 2.8% and closed the session at about $19,000.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220921/analytics632b184fa23c4.jpg

Over the past seven days, bitcoin has fallen in price by 16%. The main reason for the confident decline of the first cryptocurrency in recent days, experts call a protracted fall in key US stock indices, as well as fresh data from the US Department of Labor, according to which the August inflation rate in the country decreased to only 8.3% from 8.5% in July.

The results of the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve on the next increase in the key interest rate will be made public on Wednesday. During this meeting, the central bank carefully assessed the final inflation rate. Analysts are sure that amid a slight decrease in the consumer price index, the US central bank will not refuse another rate hike by 75 basis points. So, last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced the central bank's readiness to "act decisively" in order to combat record levels of consumer prices in the country.

To date, approximately 82% of the market is confident that the Fed will increase the base interest rate by 75 basis points. At the same time, 18% is set aside for a possible rate increase of 100 basis points. As a result, the central bank's interest rate could rise to 300-325 bps or 325-350 bps, respectively.

Recall that in March 2022, the US central bank already raised its key rate by 25 basis points, in May - by 50, and in June - by 75.

By the way, recently experts from the analytical company Kaiko reported that the volatility of BTC significantly depends on the results of the meetings of the Fed.

According to analysts from Kaiko, a high correlation of bitcoin with the decisions of the Fed was recorded in the summer of 2021, which indicates that the cryptocurrency market has long been influenced by key macroeconomic indicators.

So, when in May 2022 the Fed increased the rate range to 0.75-1% per annum, the cost of the first cryptocurrency sharply overcame the level of $40,000, but on the same day it fell below $36,000, starting the process of a protracted correction.

In June this year, when the US central bank raised its key rate to 1.5-1.75%, bitcoin immediately reacted with spectacular growth.

Experts are confident that in the coming months, the digital asset market will respond even more strongly to the speeches of world central banks, because often, an increase in the interest rate dramatically reduces the ability of investors to invest in risky assets such as virtual currency.

The weak results of the last trading session on the US stock market also became an important factor in pressure on the BTC on Wednesday. So, on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.01%, the S&P 500 plunged 1.13%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.95%.

Since the beginning of 2022, analysts have increasingly begun to emphasize the high level of correlation between the US securities market and virtual assets amid intense anticipation by both of the consequences of the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe and further steps by the Fed.

Earlier, experts from the investment company Arcane Research have already stated that the correlation of BTC and technology securities has reached its peak since July 2020.

The current situation looks rather ironic, because since the advent of cryptocurrency, it has been positioned as the main tool for protecting against inflation and price volatility in traditional markets. However, in recent months, digital assets have been increasingly correlated with stock markets, which casts doubt on the success of virtual coins.

Altcoin Market

Ethereum, the main competitor of bitcoin, also started the trading session on Wednesday with a rise and by the time of this writing it has reached $1,343.

Over the past seven days, the value of the altcoin has fallen by 17%. At the same time, the key reason for such a sharp drop in ETH was the most long-awaited event of the current year for cryptocurrency fans.

So, on the morning of September 15, the Ethereum network successfully migrated from the Proof-of-Work (PoW) algorithm to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), which does not require mining. The migration happened as part of a major update to The Merge.

At first, the quotes of bitcoin's main competitor reacted to positive news with growth, but later fell sharply by 8.2%.

As for cryptocurrencies from the top 10 by capitalization, within the past 24 hours, the best results were recorded by XRP (+8.05%), and the worst by BTC (-2.8%).

According to the results of the past week, in the top ten of the strongest digital assets, the fall list was headed by the Ethereum cryptocurrency (-15.60%), and the highest results were recorded by XRP (+22.06%).

According to CoinGecko, the world's largest virtual asset data aggregator, Cosmos (-9.87%) took the first place in the drop list among the top 100 most capitalized digital assets over the past 24 hours (-9.87%).

According to the results of the past week, the digital asset Ravencoin (-39.14%) showed the worst results among the top hundred strongest digital assets.

In the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has dropped to $920 billion, according to CoinGecko.

Since last November, when this figure exceeded the $3 trillion mark, it has more than tripled.

Crypto Expert Predictions

The unpredictable behavior of the digital coin market forces analysts to make the most unexpected predictions about its future. The CEO of Dogifox Nicholas Merten said that BTC is waiting for a collapse to $14,000.

The crypto expert came to this conclusion due to technical and macroeconomic factors. So, Merten is sure, the recent exchange rate movement of digital gold may signal the end of a 10-year bullish cycle, after which the coin will cease to be a key asset compared to other commodities and stocks.

An important macroeconomic incentive to reduce the cost of the first cryptocurrency, the crypto expert believes, may also be the Fed's decision. Despite the potential dangers for the global economy, the US central bank is likely to continue raising interest rates until the record inflation is completely defeated.

The combination of all the above technical and macroeconomic factors, the Dogifox CEO believes, will soon push bitcoin to the price bottom at $14,000. If the coin collapses to these values, its correction will be 80% of the historical record of $69,000.

As for the near future of bitcoin's main competitor, the altcoin Ethereum, Merten suggests that the cryptocurrency will retest the $800-$1,000 range, and in the worst case, quotes will fall even lower.

However, there are those who hold more positive views regarding the future of key players in the cryptocurrency market. So, recently the former top manager of the financial conglomerate Goldman Sachs, and now the CEO of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, said that digital assets will grow steadily in the coming year.

The analyst explains his optimism about the cryptocurrency market in the long term by the global economic crisis and the merger of Ethereum.

So, Pal is sure that against the background of ETH migration to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm, miners who sell altcoins every day will leave the market. As a result, there will be a decrease in the volume of offers and $6 billion in Ethereum will disappear from monthly sales. In this case, the main competitor of bitcoin will be less prone to inflation.

In addition, the CEO of Real Vision believes that, thanks to the constantly growing demand, the decrease in the supply of ETH and the environmental problems of BTC, 2023 can be very successful for Ethereum.

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IFX Gertrude
09-23-2022, 04:10 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.35%

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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.35% to a 3-month low, the S&P 500 fell 0.84%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.37%.

Merck & Company Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 2.98 points or 3.53% to close at 87.51. Quotes Johnson & Johnson rose by 2.90 points (1.78%), ending trading at 166.18. Salesforce Inc rose 2.52 points or 1.71% to close at 150.15.

Shares of American Express Company were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 5.68 points (3.82%), ending the session at 143.03. Boeing Co was up 3.20% or 4.58 points to close at 138.71, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc was down 2.43% or 7.79 points to close at 312. .92.

Among the S&P 500 index components gainers today were Eli Lilly and Company, which rose 4.85% to 310.87, Merck & Company Inc, which gained 3.53% to close at 87.51. , as well as shares of Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, which rose 2.63% to end the session at 71.29.

The biggest losers were Caesars Entertainment Corporation, which shed 9.44% to close at 37.62. Shares of Ball Corporation lost 8.66% to end the session at 49.23. FactSet Research Systems Inc dropped 8.29% to 394.75.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Spero Therapeutics Inc, which rose 167.74% to hit 2.20, Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which gained 105.90% to close at 0.44, and also shares of Panbela Therapeutics Inc, which rose 46.39% to end the session at 0.35.

Top Ships Inc. was the biggest loser, shedding 44.06% to close at 0.12. Shares of Ecmoho Ltd lost 42.72% and ended the session at 0.10. Quotes of Pintec Technology Holdings Ltd decreased in price by 28.80% to 0.42.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2596) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (546), while quotes of 120 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,011 stocks fell, 765 rose, and 257 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.29% to 27.35.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.24%, or 4.00, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 0.54%, or 0.45, to $83.39 a barrel. Brent oil futures for November delivery rose 0.50%, or 0.45, to $90.28 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.04% to 0.98, while USD/JPY fell 1.14% to hit 142.40.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.65% to 111.07.

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IFX Gertrude
09-26-2022, 07:12 AM
GBP/USD. The pound is on the path of a great crisis. Will there be parity?

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220925/analytics6330c7afd4e65.jpg

How low can the exchange rate fall? Will the Bank of England take measures to support the pound? At the end of last week, bearish positions on the British pound sharply intensified. Traders seem to have tried to resist such a powerful downward movement until the last moment, but it did not work out. Events are developing in such a way that the pound in the future can not only update distant historical lows, but also risks setting a new anti-record. The BoE's decision on the rate and the announcement of the interim budget, to put it mildly, did not impress the markets. The central bank raised the rate by only 50 bps, accumulating a backlog from the Federal Reserve. The new economic plan failed to allay investors' concerns about the approaching recession in the country. The collapsed economic indicators were also another reason for short positions. The GfK consumer confidence indicator plunged to -49 from -41, updating the historical record. The last time such figures could be seen was in 1974. The CBI retail activity indicator fell to -20 in September from 37 in August. Preliminary PMI estimates could not act as a kind of reassurance for the market. The composite index fell to 48.4 from 49.6 due to the deterioration in the service sector, where the corresponding indicator fell to 49.2 from 50.9. At first, the GBP/USD pair fell to the area of 1.1020, which is the low since 1985. Then shorts intensified and the quote easily broke down the 1.0900 mark.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220925/analytics6330c83bc8fee.jpg

Since the beginning of the year, GBP/USD has lost approximately 20%. Given inflation of 10%, nervousness should be not only among market players, but primarily among the government and the BoE. If officials do step up their efforts to maintain the pound, volatility in the foreign exchange market risks being prohibitive or getting out of control.

What's Wrong with Government Measures?

The pound was mostly brought down by new government measures. The authorities have announced significant tax cuts since 1972 in an attempt to push the country's economic growth to 2.5%.

At least some, but actions and in theory, and even according to the government's plan, it was supposed to support the mood. However, investors have their own vision of the situation and they did not believe that the British authorities, led by Liz Truss, would be able to finance these measures without hindrance.

Radical changes to the tax code imply a reduction in the basic income tax rate from 20p to 19p from April 2023. The highest income tax rate has been reduced from 45p to 40p, while the increase in national insurance contributions this year will be canceled in November.

In addition, the planned increase in corporate tax has been postponed indefinitely. At the same time, Brits buying housing for the first time will be able to see a noticeable weakening of the state fee. The cost of all the announced tax cuts, according to the authorities, is 45 billion pounds.

At the same time, the government's decision to limit electricity bills will cost much more, approximately 130 billion pounds.

In general, this means that the British government will need to borrow more, increasing the supply of gold on the market.

What will Happen to the Pound?

The panic selling of the pound made many think about the future prospects of the British currency. What is it: a temporary turbidity and an excessively strong and completely unreasonable reaction of worried investors, or is the pound really on the path of a great crisis? Will there be parity with the dollar for the first time in history?

Indeed, the pound is now under the strongest pressure, including due to the incessant advance of the dollar. The fall of the pound coincides with the time when there was a significant sell-off on world markets. Even in normal times, this creates obstacles for the national currency of Britain.

Parity with the dollar is considered by analysts as an extreme measure, which is still far from reality. At the same time, new record lows are quite possible.

It is unlikely that government measures will lead to a collapse of the pound or create problems when selling gold coins.

"Given that the economy is flirting with recession, tax cuts supporting demand are not necessarily a bad idea. But this tax cut should be permanent, not temporary," Oxford Economics believes.

The pound is expected to continue to decline to about 1.0500 against the dollar in the short term. Meanwhile, the BoE will have no choice but to raise the size of the rate hike. At the November meeting, the central bank should increase the rate by 75 bps. Thus, the markets will raise the forecast for the maximum bank rate from 3% to 4%.

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IFX Gertrude
09-27-2022, 05:57 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.11%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220927/analytics63326ca20ff7b.jpg

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.11% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 1.03%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.60%.

Walmart Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 1.25 points (0.96%) to close at 131.31. Apple Inc rose 0.34 points (0.23%) to close at 150.77. Procter & Gamble Company rose 0.13 points or 0.10% to close at 135.71.

The biggest losers were The Travelers Companies Inc, which shed 4.88 points or 3.14% to end the session at 150.60. Boeing Co was up 2.99% or 3.92 points to close at 127.34, while Chevron Corp was down 2.63% or 3.81 points to close at 140.96. .

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Wynn Resorts Limited, which rose 11.99% to 66.80, Las Vegas Sands Corp, which gained 11.81% to close at 39.66. as well as Costco Wholesale Corp, which rose 2.98% to end the session at 480.30.

The losers were DISH Network Corporation, which shed 6.12% to close at 14.27. Shares of The AES Corporation shed 5.48% to end the session at 22.96. Quotes of Halliburton Company decreased in price by 5.17% to 23.31.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were LAVA Therapeutics NV, which rose 97.50% to 4.74, DIRTT Environmental Solutions Ltd, which gained 42.87% to close at 0.45. as well as shares of Panbela Therapeutics Inc, which rose 25.96% to close the session at 0.34.

The biggest losers were Powerbridge Technologies Co Ltd, which shed 68.57% to close at 0.50. Shares of Scienjoy Holding Corp lost 43.77% to end the session at 1.67. Quotes of Snow Lake Resources Ltd fell in price by 40.88% to 1.88.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2652) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (536), while quotes of 132 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,592 stocks fell, 1,248 rose, and 275 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 7.82% to 32.26, hitting a new 3-month high.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 1.56%, or 25.90, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 2.82%, or 2.22, to $76.52 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.81%, or 2.39, to $82.64 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.84% to hit 0.96, while USD/JPY edged up 0.94% to hit 144.66.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.98% to 114.07.

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IFX Gertrude
09-28-2022, 07:02 AM
US stock market closed mixed, Dow Jones down 0.43%

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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.43% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.21%, and the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.25%.

The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components today was Salesforce Inc, which gained 2.57 points or 1.76% to close at 148.89. Quotes Dow Inc rose by 0.40 points (0.92%), ending trading at 43.79. Home Depot Inc rose 0.79% or 2.11 points to close at 268.69.

The losers were shares of McDonald's Corporation, which lost 7.06 points or 2.90% to end the session at 236.70. Procter & Gamble Company was up 2.75% or 3.73 points to close at 131.98 while Coca-Cola Co was down 2.57% or 1.49 points to close at mark 56.38.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 6.10% to hit 95.87, Mosaic Company, which gained 4.15% to close at 48.44, and also shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, which rose 3.88% to end the session at 45.75.

The biggest losers were Digital Realty Trust Inc, which shed 3.98% to close at 97.73. Shares of Organon & Co shed 3.54% to end the session at 24.26. Quotes of Global Payments Inc decreased in price by 3.39% to 108.02.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 106.25% to hit 7.26, Scienjoy Holding Corp, which gained 47.90% to close at 2.47, and also shares of X4 Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 40.18% to close the session at 1.25.

The drop leaders were NLS Pharmaceutics AG, which shed 25.07% to close at 0.72. Shares of Midatech Pharma PLC ADR lost 20.77% and ended the session at 2.06. Quotes of Fednat Holding Co decreased in price by 18.22% to 0.18.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1634) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1527), while quotes of 136 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2048 companies rose in price, 1751 fell, and 295 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 1.05% to 32.60, hitting a new 3-month high.

Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.18%, or 2.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 2.29%, or 1.76, to $78.47 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 2.35%, or 1.95, to $84.81 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.14% to 0.96, while USD/JPY rose 0.06% to hit 144.84.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.09% to 114.12.

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IFX Gertrude
09-29-2022, 09:12 AM
USD/JPY: When will Groundhog Day end?

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220929/analytics63354ef7d48b5.jpg

The USD/JPY pair continues to tread in the 144-145 range, in which it has been stuck since the beginning of the week. Consolidation is pretty boring for both bulls and bears, but there is no trigger on the horizon yet.

This year, the Japanese currency has fallen in price relative to its American counterpart by more than 20%. The reason for the weakening of the yen was the strong monetary divergence between the US and Japan.

Last week, the dollar-yen pair set another high-profile record. After the Federal Reserve raised rates again, and the Bank of Japan left the indicator unchanged, the quote jumped to a new 24-year high at 145.90.

The sharp fall of the yen forced the Japanese government to intervene in support of its national currency for the first time since 1998. As a result of the intervention, the USD/JPY pair went into a steep peak. However, the asset did not stay as a loser for long. It only took a couple of days for it to get back on track leading to the main goal for today level 145.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20220929/analytics63354fa447b61.jpg

Since the beginning of this week, the dollar-yen pair has already come close to the cherished mark several times, but each time it rolled back.

According to analysts, the main deterrent for dollar bulls at the moment is the risk of repeated currency intervention.

Given the huge number of warnings from the Japanese authorities, traders still prefer not to get into trouble. However, the situation may change dramatically if a particularly powerful trump card in favor of the dollar appears on the market.

You may ask: isn't it here now? Indeed, the dollar received strong support from the Fed last week. The US central bank not only raised rates, but also made it clear that it intends to tighten its monetary policy in the future.

This week, American politicians have further intensified hawkish rhetoric, which contributed to the explosive growth of the dollar. The greenback has reached a new 20-year high, showing impressive dynamics in almost all directions, but not paired with the yen.

The psychologically important 145 barrier still remains impregnable for the USD/JPY asset. This suggests that the market has already taken into account the further growth of discrepancies in the monetary policy of the Fed and the BOJ.

Now traders need specifics: how big the gap in US and Japanese interest rates can become.

If in the near future American officials again talk about raising the indicator by 100 bps, perhaps this will be the very impetus for the dollar, which will move it from the dead point.

Of course, the Japanese Ministry of Finance is aware of the current vulnerability of the yen. Probably, the authorities will continue to intimidate traders with interventions to deter speculators, Rabobank analysts warn. Nevertheless, we are still guided in our 3-month forecast for the USD/JPY pair to the level of 147.

As for the short-term dynamics of the asset, do not expect miracles in the coming days. Most experts believe that the dollar-yen pair will remain in the zone of broad consolidation.

The technical picture for the USD/JPY

200-day exponential moving average at 141.20 scales higher. This indicates that the long-term trend is still stable.

At the same time, the relative strength index (RSI) fluctuates in the range of 40.00-60.00, which indicates that the movement continues within the current range.

For a decisive bearish reversal, the asset needs to fall below the previous week's low at around 140.35.

Dollar bulls may push the pair higher after overcoming the previous week's high at 145.90.

This may lead the quote to the August 1998 high at 147.67. And its breakthrough will send the dollar even further upward to psychological resistance in the area of 150.00.

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IFX Gertrude
09-30-2022, 05:41 AM
US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.54%

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At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.54%, the S&P 500 fell 2.11% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.84%.

The leading gainers among the components of the Dow Jones index today were The Travelers Companies Inc, which gained 1.76 points (1.15%) to close at 154.68. Visa Inc Class A rose 0.88 points or 0.49% to close at 180.06. Merck & Company Inc shed 0.14 points or 0.16% to close at 86.64.

The losers were Boeing Co shares, which lost 8.11 points or 6.08% to end the session at 125.33. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 4.97% or 1.65 points to close at 31.55 while Apple Inc was down 4.91% or 7.36 points to end at 142. .48.

Among the S&P 500 index components gainers in today's trading were Everest Re Group Ltd, which rose 3.07% to 267.41, STERIS plc, which gained 2.76% to close at 167.29, and also shares of W. R. Berkley Corp, which rose 2.73% to end the session at 65.18.

The biggest losers were CarMax Inc, which shed 24.60% to close at 65.16. Shares of SolarEdge Technologies Inc lost 8.27% to end the session at 235.56. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 7.91% to 43.64.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Senti Biosciences Inc, which rose 50.71% to hit 2.11, Avalon Globocare Corp, which gained 25.85% to close at 0.70, and also shares of TuanChe ADR, which rose 25.31% to close the session at 3.07.

The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 54.82% to close at 33.95. Shares of Lion Group Holding Ltd lost 49.25% and ended the session at 1.01. Quotes of Twin Vee Powercats Co decreased in price by 29.01% to 2.52.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2631) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (530), while quotes of 112 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,842 stocks fell, 956 rose, and 224 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.50% to 31.84.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.07%, or 1.20, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 0.55%, or 0.45, to $81.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 0.55%, or 0.48, to $87.57 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.70% to hit 0.98, while USD/JPY edged up 0.21% to hit 144.46.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.36% to 112.11.

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IFX Gertrude
10-03-2022, 05:43 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.71%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221003/analytics633a54c73a7b0.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.71% to hit a 52-week low, the S&P 500 fell 1.51% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.51%.

Shares of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated were among the leaders of gains among the components of the Dow Jones index today, which lost 3.79 points (0.74%) to close at 505.04. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc fell 0.15 points or 0.48% to close at 31.40. Dow Inc shed 0.23 points or 0.52% to close at 43.93.

The drop leaders were Nike Inc shares, which lost 12.21 points or 12.81% to end the session at 83.12. Boeing Co was up 3.39% or 4.25 points to close at 121.08, while Walt Disney Company was down 3.20% or 3.12 points to close at 94. 33.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Charles River Laboratories, which rose 3.57% to hit 196.80, Weyerhaeuser Company, which gained 2.92% to close at 28.56, and shares of Twitter Inc, which rose 2.74% to end the session at 43.91.

The losers were shares of Carnival Corporation, which fell 23.31% to close at 7.03. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd lost 18.11% to end the session at 11.35. Quotes of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd decreased in price by 13.14% to 37.91.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were FingerMotion Inc, which rose 82.16% to hit 3.37, SAITECH Global Corp, which gained 43.36% to close at 3.24, and shares of Avenue Therapeutics Inc, which rose 39.03% to end the session at 10.08.

The biggest losers were Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc, which shed 39.91% to close at 20.40. Shares of Aterian Inc lost 37.06% and ended the session at 1.24. Quotes of Edesa Biotech Inc decreased in price by 34.66% to 0.92.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,758) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,354), while quotations of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,139 companies fell in price, 1,583 rose, and 228 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.69% to 31.62.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.11%, or 1.80, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 1.87%, or 1.52, to $79.71 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.13%, or 1.86, to $85.32 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.08% to 0.98, while USD/JPY advanced 0.23% to hit 144.77.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.09% to 112.10.

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IFX Gertrude
10-04-2022, 09:06 AM
USD/JPY: May the force be with you!

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Yesterday, bulls again pushed the USD/JPY pair above the key 145 mark, but failed to gain a foothold there. The yen turned out to be a tough nut to crack, which is still too tough for the dollar bulls.

For a penny of ammunition, for a fragment of ambition

Trampling the USD/JPY pair, which lasted all last week, unexpectedly gave way to a decisive upward movement on Monday morning.

Lacking a new fundamental catalyst, the dollar miraculously managed to hit the 145 peak it tested in September again.

Recall that the last time this barrier was captured turned out to be a disaster for the greenback. In response to the strong fall of the yen, the Japanese authorities carried out the first intervention in 24 years to support their national currency.

Having touched a potentially dangerous line, this time the greenback was more cautious and without intervening in the market, it bounced back as if scalded.

This served as yet another confirmation that USD/JPY bulls are still wary of intervention and do not want to draw fire on themselves.

Of course, the dollar still has a strong amulet in its pocket that will almost save it from a steep plunge. We are talking about the growing monetary divergence between the US and Japan.

But the market is well aware that this is no longer enough for the USD to rise. With the Japanese government continuing to threaten to intervene again, the dollar needs a big boost in the form of strong economic data.

A strong US economy will definitely allow the Federal Reserve to satisfy all its hawkish ambitions, and weak macroeconomic statistics, on the contrary, will prevent this.

Recall that at the September meeting, the US central bank raised interest rates by 75 bps and reaffirmed its willingness to raise the rate more aggressively if inflation continues to be high.

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that the 75 bps step is the ceiling for the Fed. The US central bank is unlikely to decide on anything more, given the uneven economic data.

This opinion was supported by the latest index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The ISM reported a reading of 50.9 in September, lower than its forecast of 52.2.

After the release of pessimistic statistics, the yield on 10-year US bonds fell by 14 basis points to 3.66%, and the dollar significantly fell.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221004/analytics633bde50e0f82.jpg

Flat may drag on

Today's portion of US economic data is also unlikely to please the USD/JPY bulls. Tuesday's key report will be the release of the index of business activity in the services sector from ISM.

Economists forecast a decline in September to 56 compared to the previous value of 56.9.

The data on the index of new orders for the last month may also turn out to be weak. The indicator is expected to fall to 58.9 against 61.8 recorded in August.

Preliminary estimates are putting significant pressure on the dollar-yen this morning as it struggles to break out of the consolidation phase to try again to break through the defenses at the psychologically important 145 mark.

At the time of release, the quote jumped almost 0.2% and traded around 144.80.

The trigger for the asset was a dovish statement by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The day before, the official said that the government will continue to stimulate the economy, while trying to make the most of the weak yen.

The geopolitical factor also provided significant support to the dollar - the escalation of tension between Japan and North Korea.

At the beginning of the day, it was reported that Pyongyang, which had already tested an unprecedented number of missiles this year, had fired another short-range ballistic projectile.

This time, the target of the North Korean military appeared to be the Hokkaido area, which is considered the second largest Japanese island.

In response to the missile launch over Japan, the Hokkaido authorities issued an air raid alert and urged the people of the region to take shelter.

Meanwhile, Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada has signaled that Tokyo is considering all options for strengthening its defenses, including a counterattack.

If the conflict between the countries continues to escalate, the Japanese yen may weaken even more. In this case, bulls on the USD/JPY pair will finally have a real chance to settle above the 145 level.

However, we recommend that traders do not force things yet and be patient, especially since most forecasts for the USD/JPY pair point to further movement in the flat.

Most likely, in the coming days, the dollar and the yen will continue to pull the price rope in the 144-145 range.

Technical picture for the USD/JPY pair

The short-term trend is neutral, but has a tendency to the downside. As the quote fell below the 20-, 50- and 100-EMAs yesterday, this could spell further losses.

If the bears manage to take the asset below 144, this will open a fast route to 143.90.

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IFX Gertrude
10-05-2022, 10:19 PM
European stocks decline after previous sharp rise

On Wednesday, key European stock indices declined dramatically amid the release of fresh statistics on the EU countries. At the same time, stock indexes have been actively rising over the last three sessions and closed Tuesday's trading with a record six-month gain.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221005/analytics633daf15a0f88.jpg

By the time of writing, the STOXX Europe 600 index of Europe's leading companies had dropped by 0.9% to 399.40 points.

Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 fell by 0.73%, the German DAX lost 0.79%, and the British FTSE 100 declined by 1.15%.

Top gainers and losers

The stock price of Britain's largest grocery retailer Tesco Plc rose 2.5% despite a 2.8-fold decline in pre-tax profits in the January-June 2023 fiscal year. In addition, the day before, the company worsened its full-year outlook due to changing consumer behavior and continued uncertainty in the trading environment amid record inflation.

The Finnish airline Finnair rose 1.2%. Earlier the company reported that it carried 890,500 passengers last month, 1.1% more than in August. At the same time, in September 2021, the number of Finnair passengers was only 298.2 thousand.

The market capitalization of the Danish manufacturer of audio systems and other electronics Bang & Olufsen A/S fell by 2.6%. The company's revenue fell by 8.2% in the first fiscal quarter.

Share price of the Swedish Avanza Bank Holding dropped by 6.4%.

The stock price of French auto parts supplier Faurecia SE dropped 6.2%.

Swedish cloud technology provider Sinch AB soared by 9.7%.

Meanwhile, the market capitalization of the Swedish airline SAS AB is steadily increasing. Earlier, the company's management announced about the changes in the contracts with 10 lessors providing 36 aircraft. According to the preliminary expectations of the SAS AB management, it will help to save about $700 million a year by 2026. Market sentiment

The focus of European investors on Wednesday is fresh statistics on the region. So, according to the final estimation of experts, in September the business activity composite index (PMI) in industry and services of 19 Eurozone countries was 48.1 points down from 48.9 points in August. Meanwhile, earlier the market forecasted the decrease of the index down to 48.2 points only.

The final September PMI was the lowest in two years and eight months. Traditionally the value of business activity composite index in industry and services above 50 points indicates an increase in economic activity, below its decline.

In addition, on Wednesday morning S&P Global reported that the euro region's services purchasing managers' index was 48.8 points for the month, compared to August's 49.8 points. The September total was the lowest since February 2021. At the same time analysts predicted a less noticeable decrease in the index - down to 48.9 points. By the way, the fall of purchasing managers indicator in the services sector below 50 points traditionally indicates a decrease in business activity in the sector.

Meanwhile, in Italy PMI in the service sector fell to 48.8 points in September from 50.5 points in August, in Germany - to 45 points from 47.7 points. Meanwhile, in France the index rose last month to 52.9 points from August's 51.2 points.

Germany's foreign trade surplus decreased to 1.2 billion euros in August from 13.7 billion euros registered a year before and 3.4 billion euros in July. This tangible reduction in the country's trade surplus was a striking signal of a slowdown in external demand for goods produced by Germany's key manufacturing sector.

The volume of German exports in September, adjusted for calendar and seasonal factors, rose by 1.6% (EUR 133.1 billion) compared to August.

Meanwhile, imports rose 3.4% to 131.9 billion. Meanwhile, industrial production in France soared 2.4% in August compared to July's drop of 1.6%. At the same time the August figure was the highest since January 2021.

Previous trading results

On Tuesday, European stock indices closed in the green zone, gaining within 4%.

Thus, the composite indicator of Europe's leading companies STOXX Europe 600 rose by 2.01% to 403.03 points. By the way, the index exceeded 400 points for the first time since September 22.

The French CAC 40 advanced by 4.24%, the German DAX gained 3.78% and the British FTSE 100 added 2.57%.

The value of shares of the German automobile concern Volkswagen rose by more than 1%. The day before, the head of Volkswagen Oliver Blumet told local media that he plans to lead all subsidiaries to an IPO after the success of the initial public offering of Porsche.

Quotes of the Swiss banking group Credit Suisse Group AG soared by 8.9%, recovering from a 9% plunge the day before. The key pressure factor for the shares of Credit Suisse on Monday was the announcement of the bank's management that it is considering cutting 1,000 jobs over the next few years as part of a new anti-crisis program. The business reorganization plan will be unveiled at the end of October.

The market capitalization of the British insurance company Legal & General Group rose by 5.9% on the report of further support for pension fund clients affected by the sharp rise in interest rates.

The share price of British bakery chain Greggs PLC strengthened 10% on total sales, which rose 14.6% year-over-year during the past quarter.

Swiss vacuum equipment maker VAT Group AG gained 6.9 percent.

Quotes of the French IT company Atos SE rose by 6.8%.

The market capitalization of Made.Com, an online furniture retailer, soared more than 20% on news that its management had begun negotiations with "a number of interested parties" about selling the company.

The share price of Swiss chemical group Sika AG soared 6% on the back of an improvement in its revenue forecast for 2022.

The value of securities of Spanish banks Santander, BBVA and Caixabank rose by more than 7%.

Quotes of the British marketing company S4 Capital increased by 10%.

Market capitalization of Norwegian fish company SalMar ASA dropped by 10.3%.

The main factor of growth for the European stock exchanges on Tuesday was a strong outcome of the last trading session on the U.S. stock market. Thus, The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.7% in the first trading session of the fourth quarter, reaching a February high. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index gained 2.59% and the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.27%.

In addition, Asian indices were up significantly the day before, as the Hong Kong stock exchange opened after a holiday.

Experts attribute the surge of optimism in the European stock markets the previous day to the weakening of investors' concerns over the further aggressive monetary policy of world central banks. The high recession risks for the global economy, analysts say, may force the regulators to follow a softer course.

According to the statistics published on Monday, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the United States in September fell to its lowest level of May 2020. This state of affairs was perceived by investors as confirmation that monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve is beginning to suppress economic activity.

Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing index fell to 50.9 points last month from August's 52.8 points, according to data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). At the same time, the market on average expected the index to fall only to 52.2 points.

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IFX Gertrude
10-06-2022, 04:10 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.14%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221006/analytics633e405e0bce9.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.14%, the S&P 500 fell 0.20%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.25%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Nike Inc, which gained 2.46 points or 2.78% to close at 91.10. Visa Inc Class A rose 2.02 points or 1.09% to close at 187.67. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 3.90 points or 0.75% to close at 527.07.

The biggest losers were Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which shed 5.87 points or 1.86% to end the session at 309.00. Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 1.38 points (1.23%) to close at 110.39, while Dow Inc shed 0.56 points (1.20%) to close at 46 .06.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 components in today's trading were Illumina Inc, which rose 6.56% to hit 218.52, Schlumberger NV, which gained 6.26% to close at 41.57, and Gap Inc, which rose 5.19% to end the session at 9.72.

The biggest losers were Lumen Technologies Inc, which shed 9.45% to close at 7.28. Shares of Enphase Energy Inc shed 9.25% to end the session at 261.60. Quotes Vornado Realty Trust fell in price by 6.38% to 22.47.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Chardan Nextech Acquisition 2 Corp, which rose 102.63% to hit 21.54, Nauticus Robotics Inc, which gained 96.27% to close at 6.32. , as well as shares of Pineapple Holdings Inc, which rose 93.01% to end the session at 2.76.

The biggest losers were Bit Brother Ltd, which shed 42.97% to close at 0.18. Shares of Avenue Therapeutics Inc shed 41.59% to end the session at 8.47. Quotes Scienjoy Holding Corp fell in price by 36.99% to 1.38.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2102) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (991), while quotes of 107 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,313 companies fell in price, 1,443 rose, and 198 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 1.79% to 28.55.

Gold futures for December delivery shed 0.28%, or 4.90, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery rose 1.76%, or 1.52, to $88.04 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 2.07%, or 1.90, to $93.70 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.96% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY edged up 0.35% to hit 144.60.

Futures on the USD index rose 1.00% to 111.08.

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IFX Yvonne
10-07-2022, 05:36 AM
EUR/USD. Bearish cocktail for the euro

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221006/analytics633f39d5687df.jpg

The contradictory dynamics of the euro is somewhat alarming. Despite the unfavorable picture of the eurozone with pessimistic data and forecasts, where the cherry on the cake is the energy crisis, the single currency looks quite stable. Should we wait for lows at the level of 1.9000?

The German authorities reported unpleasant economic forecasts. A recession is expected in the country next year. The GDP of the European economy, according to the preliminary autumn estimates of the government, will decrease by 0.4% in 2023.
In addition, the growth forecast for 2022 was lowered to 1.4%. Inflation will be 7.9% this year and will reach 8% in 2023. The figures are not final, adjustments may be made next week, the government said in a statement.

Retail sales in the eurozone sank by 0.3% on a monthly basis in August against the expected 0.4%. On an annualized basis, the indicator fell by 2%, which is higher than the forecast value of 1.7%.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221006/analytics633f38c6703a8.jpg

Both macroeconomic factors did not cause an immediate reaction in the euro, which continued to trade with small losses on Thursday. The decline of the EUR/USD pair intensified only in the US session amid a growing dollar index.

What is the reason for the paradoxical stability of the euro?

At the beginning of the week, there was a clear rebound from the lows as a result of the emerging risk appetite. Bulls on EUR/USD aiming to break through the parity upward. Everything seems to be logical, but... At this point, other currencies such as the Canadian, Australian, New Zealand dollars and even the Swiss franc could not recoup, that is, they almost did not rise against the dollar.
It turns out this way: when the dollar rose, the euro fell slower than other currencies, and when the dollar adjusted down, the euro grew most vigorously. Although the same Canadian dollar had a good factor for recovery in the form of a sharp rise in oil prices.

The behavior is strange, however, it does not change the overall picture for the euro. From the point of view of the trade balance, budget stability, the level of public debt to GDP and taking into account the high risks of recession, the euro still looks weaker than other currencies of developed countries.
If, as a result, the recovery in the markets resumes, the euro should not be ahead of everyone, but behind. The future of the bloc does not bode well for the single currency a recession and a debt crisis are on the horizon.
Yes, the euro has recently received support due to harsh statements by representatives of the European Central Bank, but this phenomenon is temporary. It is not a fact that the central bank will decide to raise the rate by 75 bps at the October meeting. Maybe it will cost a step of only 50 bps.

If inflation does push the ECB to tighten policy more aggressively, then the question will arise about government debt yields. The national debt of Italy, as you know, is a time bomb that will explode according to the Greek scenario. Last week, yields on Italy's 10-year debt tested the peaks since 2013 at 4.8%. Then they rolled back, then went up again. The moral is that as a result it will be possible to see at least 5%.

If we turn to history, the euro's fall amid the debt crises has always been significant. Economists, analysts and strategists each time started talking about the possible collapse of the euro bloc. This was the case during the Greek crisis, when the euro collapsed from the area of 1.4000 to 1.2000.

Now everything starts in a new circle of the current Italian scenario. It is possible that once again they will begin to "bury" the eurozone, especially since Italian problems are much more dangerous than Greek or Spanish ones and occur at such a difficult time for the world as a whole.

Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is highly likely to test the 0.9500 level, and even the growth of risk appetite is not an ally here.

The eurozone is on the verge of recession, the deepest recession is expected in the winter months, so the EUR/USD pair may well aim for the level of 0.9000.

"Three-quarters of negative growth and the still hawkish position of the Fed is a strong bearish cocktail for EUR/USD," according to ING economists, who also adhere to the scenario of a drop in the quote in the area of 0.9000.

"The increase in gas prices this winter will put pressure on the trade balance of the eurozone. This could lead to the euro falling to the lower limit of the 0.9000-0.9500 range over the next three or six months," ING predicts.

A potential reversal is possible in 2023 if the Federal Reserve starts to stick to dovish rhetoric, and the eurozone comes out of recession.

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IFX Gertrude
10-10-2022, 05:42 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for GBP/USD on October 10, 2022

On Friday, the British pound opened and closed below the technical level of 1.1170. Now the 1.0828 target is available. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator also looks fixed below the zero line, in the downward trend zone. Consolidation under 1.0828 will open the second target at 1.0535.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221010/analytics63438a926e2b1.jpg

A factor that could postpone the pound's decline is tomorrow's employment data in the UK, which, with the expected maintenance of the unemployment rate at 3.6%, may show an improvement in the employment structure, including wage growth.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221010/analytics63438a8353e17.jpg

The price reached the MACD line and stayed there on the four-hour timescale. The technical price level (1.1170) is pressing on the price from above, so the lateral price movement is unlikely to be long. With the departure of the quote under Friday's low at 1.1055, the movement to 1.0828 will begin.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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IFX Gertrude
10-10-2022, 08:45 AM
The pound does not hold back despair amid a strong dollar and sad forecasts

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221007/analytics63404b7e061a2.jpg

An important report on the labor market in the United States turned out to be quite strong, because experts' expectations of a weekly loss of the pound against the dollar and euro were being fully realized on Friday.

By the end of the trading day on Friday, the GBP/USD pair was trading at around 1.1103, declining in value by 0.51% under considerable pressure from various factors.

There are no important events in the domestic economic calendar of the UK yet that can give sterling another strong support. Events such as the Bank of England's next interest rate decision and the announcement of the government's budget plan will hit investors only in November. Therefore, the pound's movements on Friday and probably for some time to come will depend entirely on the subtle moods of investors.

According to the released data, the unemployment rate in the United States fell from 3.7% in August to 3.5% in September, and job growth was slightly higher than expected. And this is despite all of the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow down demand. The number of vacancies at the end of last month increased by 263,000, although most analysts predicted an increase of 250,000.

Apparently, the labor market in the world's largest economy is still tense, which means that the Fed has not had any good reasons to move away from its policy of a sharp rate hike. Although many experts fear that such a decisive position of the Fed will not just "cool" the country's economy, but also plunge the US into a deep recession. Nevertheless, the probability that in November the US central bank will implement another rate hike by 0.75 percentage points is all 83%.

Amid all these expectations, the pound found no reason to hold positions and was noticeably weakening against major world currencies. Not having had time to really recover from the extreme volatility caused by the mini-budget of Kwasi Kwarteng, sterling continues to sink under the dominance of the dollar.

The dollar index, which tracks its exchange rate against a basket of six key currencies, was almost invariably trading at 112.34 by 16:00 London time.

In addition to the strong dollar, sterling is under considerable pressure due to data that showed a clear slowdown in the UK economy.

The pound also had to face the first warning from National Grid. The company warns that in the coming winter it will most likely have to introduce rolling power outages in the UK. If Russian gas supplies to the country do not resume, and the temperature begins to fall below the usual level, then the threat from National Grid will become a terrible reality for the United Kingdom.

In addition, the international rating agency Fitch has changed the outlook for the UK's long-term rating to the status of "negative", although the country previously had the status of "stable". Actually, it's not surprising, given the rather risky plans of the government to reduce taxes. It is already obvious that such a plan of the authorities will lead to an increase in public debt. At the same time, the rating itself was confirmed at the "AA" level.

According to experts at Fitch, in the absence of compensating measures, the UK government budget deficit will amount to 7.8% of GDP by the end of this year. And next year this deficit will grow to 8.8%. At the same time, the average budget deficit for countries with an AA rating is about 2% of GDP.

It is expected that inflation in the UK at the end of 2022 will be 8.9%, and then will gradually decline and by the end of 2024 will reach the level of 3.5%. But even in this case, the inflation rate will be higher than the target of 2%.

Earlier this week, S&P Global Ratings also changed the outlook for the UK's long-term rating to the status of "negative", thereby confirming the country's rating at the level of "AA".

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IFX Gertrude
10-11-2022, 06:01 AM
European stock market falls after the collapse of Asian stock exchanges

On Monday, the leading stock indicators of Western Europe show a decline against the background of the negative dynamics of stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific region. The general pessimism on the world markets was also provoked by investors' concern about further tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve in the context of permanently rising inflation. In addition, the tense situation in Ukraine has returned to the agenda.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221010/analytics63445e1865f16.jpg

Thus, at the time of writing, the composite index of the leading companies in Europe STOXX Europe 600 sank by 0.68% - to 389.21 points, reaching a weekly low.

Meanwhile, the French CAC 40 shed 0.53%, the German DAX rose a symbolic 0.05% and the UK FTSE 100 shed 0.45%.

Rising and falling leaders

The value of securities of the French oil and gas company TotalEnergies SE sank by 1.5%. On the eve of the company's management proposed to organize annual negotiations on employee salaries with trade unions in France ahead of the scheduled date, provided that strikes at refineries are completed

The quotes of the British online retailer THG PLC fell by 7.8%.

The market capitalization of the German energy company Uniper SE decreased by 7.5%.

The share price of the Austrian manufacturer of sensors, semiconductor components and lighting equipment ams-OSRAM AG fell by 6.7%.

The value of the securities of the French automotive corporation Renault SA sank by 3.1% after the company's management confirmed that it was negotiating an alliance with Japanese Nissan about future investments in Renault's new electric vehicle business.

Quotes of the French bank Societe Generale SA rose by 0.8% on the news that the company's chief operating officer, Gall Olivier, will leave his post at the end of 2022 due to management reshuffles.

Market sentiment

The focus of attention of participants in the European stock market on Monday is concerns about the consequences of rocket attacks in Ukraine over the weekend. In addition, investors continue to worry about the decisive steps of the world's central banks in the field of monetary policy.

So, this morning it became known that the Bank of England will increase the maximum volume of daily auctions for the redemption of government bonds under the temporary program. The British central bank announced the start of the program on September 28.

At the same time, the British central bank plans to fully complete the repurchase of government securities on Friday, October 14. Since the launch of the program, the BoE has held 8 auctions. In total, the central bank bought bonds for $ 5.5 billion, although it had previously stated that it was ready to buy securities for 40 billion pounds.

Last Friday, a stronger-than-expected labor market report was published in the United States. As a result, the September figures from the US Department of Labor increased investors' concern that the Fed will continue to increase the interest rate in an attempt to cope with record inflation.

On Monday, world media reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to meet with representatives of the Security Council after the attack on a major bridge between Russia and Crimea.

Following the results of Monday's trading, the stock exchanges of the Asia-Pacific region collapsed sharply. At the same time, trading volumes were insignificant due to the holidays in Japan and South Korea. Thus, the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 stock indicator sank by 2.21%, and the Shanghai Composite lost 1.66%.

The main factor of pressure on the Asia-Pacific exchanges on Monday was the securities of chip manufacturers. Thus, the quotes of Anji Microelectronics Tech and Chengdu Xuguang Electronics companies fell by 20% and 10%, respectively, after the White House introduced export control measures. Under the new rules, Chinese companies will no longer have access to some semiconductor materials produced on United States equipment.

Such a decisive step by the American authorities, experts suggest, could provoke a tangible deterioration in trade relations between the United States and China and have serious economic consequences if the PRC takes retaliatory measures.

Another factor of pressure on Asian stock markets was the release of fresh data that by the end of September, the country's services sector declined amid permanent disruptions related to the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

This week, European traders will be waiting for the publication of statistical data on consumer prices in the United States. According to preliminary forecasts of experts, by the end of September, annual inflation in America slowed to 8.1% from August's 8.3%.

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IFX Gertrude
10-12-2022, 09:03 AM
Apocalypse today: the yen has collapsed again

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221012/analytics63466221e1716.jpg

On Wednesday morning, the Japanese currency was covered by a strong tsunami caused by the USD. Paired with the dollar, the yen crossed the red line at 145.90 and collapsed to a new 24-year low. The dollar has dispersed

Today's culminating event in the foreign exchange market should be the release of the minutes of the September FOMC meeting.

Recall that last month, as part of the current tightening cycle, the US central bank raised the interest rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time and signaled the continuation of an aggressive course in order to curb inflation faster.

Now traders hope that the Federal Reserve's minutes will shed light on the central bank's future plans regarding rates. If the report turns out to be more hawkish, it will strengthen expectations for another increase in the indicator by 75 bps.

This development is an excellent driver for the yield of 10-year US government bonds. Ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes, the indicator soared to a 14-year high at 4.006%.

The jump in yields contributed to the dollar's growth in all directions. At the start of Wednesday, the DXY index rose by 0.16% and tested a 2-week high at 113.54.

At the same time, the greenback showed the best dynamics against the yen, which is absolutely logical. Among all the currencies of the Group of 10, the JPY is particularly sensitive to the growth of long-term US bond yields, since the same Japanese indicator is still near zero.

The growing monetary divergence of Japan and the United States has led to the fact that this year the yen has sunk against the dollar by more than 20%. And this morning, the yen set another anti-record.

The USD/JPY pair jumped by more than 0.3% and touched the level of 146.35. The last time the quote was traded at this level was in August 1998.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221012/analytics63466261e8f06.jpg

Is the intervention close?

Of course, the fact that dollar bulls crossed the red line again further increased the risk of repeated currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Recall that the Japanese government intervened in the market for the first time in 24 years three weeks ago, when the USD/JPY pair reached the level of 145.90.

Now, when the quote turned out to be much higher than this level, many traders are afraid of a repeat of the September scenario in the near future.

However, this time Japanese politicians will most likely not focus on any particular red line.

At this stage, the more important indicator will be the rate of change in the exchange rate. This was announced this morning by Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki.

"If the yen falls rapidly, it will force the Japanese government to push the red button again," Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joseph Capurso shared his opinion.

Meanwhile, many analysts warn that in the short term, the dollar's growth may accelerate significantly on all fronts, including against the yen.

Today's FOMC minutes is far from the only obvious driver for the dollar. The real rocket fuel for the USD may be tomorrow's release of statistics on inflation in the United States for September.

If the market sees that consumer price growth is still steady, it is likely to reignite a wave of speculation about an even sharper rate hike in America.

In this case, the dollar may demonstrate another parabolic growth. Then Japan will simply have no other choice but to re-intervene.

The yen is doomed anyway

According to Kapurso, the Japanese government will intervene in the market by the end of this week. However, as in September, the effect of the intervention will be short-lived.

Any fluctuations caused by the intervention of the USD/JPY pair will stop within a few weeks, the analyst is certain.

The quote will be able to recover fairly quickly, since the dollar now has very strong support: the Fed's November meeting is ahead, which means the next round of rate hikes.

The asset has excellent growth potential in the longer term. Even if in the future the Fed starts to slow down the pace of tightening its monetary rate a bit, the Bank of Japan policy will still remain ultra-soft. This should support the US currency.

We expect that the dollar will remain strong at least until next spring, and we maintain our 3-month forecast for the USD/JPY pair at 147.00, Rabobank analysts said.

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IFX Gertrude
10-13-2022, 06:39 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.10%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221013/analytics63478229a6d12.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.10%, the S&P 500 was down 0.33% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.09%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was JPMorgan Chase & Co, which gained 1.65 points (1.62%) to close at 103.61. Quotes of Coca-Cola Co rose by 0.66 points (1.21%), closing trading at 55.14. Intel Corporation rose 0.29 points or 1.16% to close at 25.33.

The biggest losers were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which shed 0.67 points or 2.05% to end the session at 31.94. Walmart Inc was up 1.13% or 1.50 points to close at 131.17, while Boeing Co was down 0.87% or 1.15 points to close at 130.42..

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, which rose 11.48% to 45.36, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, which gained 11.61% to close at 12. 98, as well as shares of Carnival Corporation, which rose 9.79% to close the session at 7.29.

The biggest losers were Albemarle Corp, which shed 7.89% to close at 251.45. Shares of T. Rowe Price Group Inc lost 5.14% to end the session at 98.07. Quotes of Entergy Corporation decreased in price by 4.52% to 96.58.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Pintec Technology Holdings Ltd, which rose 191.16% to hit 0.91, Agrify Corp, which gained 88.02% to close at 0.95, and also shares of 9F Inc, which rose 83.42% to close the session at 0.35.

The biggest losers were Fednat Holding Co, which shed 33.87% to close at 0.22. Shares of T2 Biosystms Inc lost 30.00% and ended the session at 0.06. Kinnate Biopharma Inc lost 26.65% to 8.12.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1818) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1274), while quotes of 132 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,902 stocks fell, 1,820 rose, and 278 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.18% to 33.57.

Gold futures for December delivery shed 0.33%, or 5.50, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 2.70%, or 2.41, to $86.94 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.13%, or 2.01, to $92.28 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.03% to 0.97, while USD/JPY edged up 0.70% to hit 146.88.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.06% to 113.19.

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IFX Gertrude
10-14-2022, 08:36 AM
USD/JPY: simply the best

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221014/analytics634908c7158e0.jpg

Yesterday, the foreign exchange market experienced a strong storm. At first, the dollar took off like a rocket in all directions, and then it also sharply sprung back. But it still looks good against the yen.

The bouncing dollar

On Wednesday, the US currency showed another parabolic growth against all its major competitors. The springboard for the greenback was the shocking data on inflation in the United States.

Statistics for September showed that consumer prices in America rose more than expected. On a monthly basis, the indicator rose by 0.4% against the forecast of 0.2%.

As for the annual dynamics, inflation also exceeded the preliminary estimate of economists and amounted to 8.2%. This is only 0.1% lower than the value recorded in August.

The market saw that the growth of consumer prices in the United States is still stable, despite the aggressive anti-inflationary campaign launched by the Federal Reserve this year.

This significantly increased traders' expectations about the continuation of the hawkish course in America and the next increase in the interest rate by 75 bps.

Moreover, the hot inflation data again provoked a wave of speculation about a possible rise in the indicator in November by a full percentage point. The probability of such a scenario has increased to 13.4%.

Optimism about a more aggressive tightening served as an excellent springboard for the dollar. Literally overnight, the DXY index jumped by more than 0.5%.

One of the most productive majors was the USD/JPY pair. The quote soared by 0.7% and set another record at 147.665.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221014/analytics634908d754a4c.jpg

The last time the dollar traded against the yen at this level was in 1990. However, the USD/JPY pair did not stay at the 32-year high for long.

Shortly after the release of the consumer price index, the large-scale triumph of the greenback was replaced by an epic failure of the same power.

Analysts explain this by the fact that the market has already fully embedded in the value of the dollar expectations about sustained inflation and its impact on the future course of the Fed. Now a new trigger is needed for the USD to grow steadily, and we will get it soon. Now everyone's focus is switching to the Fed's monetary policy meeting next month.

As we approach the moment X, the dollar will grow on strong US economic data.

The yen is an obvious loser

Despite its recent rebound, the USD/JPY pair still maintains a strong upward mood. This morning, the asset is staying near the 32-year peak reached a day earlier.

Even the growing risk of currency intervention cannot weaken the grip of dollar bulls. At the start of Friday, the Japanese government again threatened to intervene in the market if there is a rapid fall in the yen.

Recall that last month, for the first time since 1998, Japan intervened in support of its national currency, when it fell against the dollar below the level of 145.90.

Given the recent statements of Japanese officials regarding the intervention, it can be assumed that now they will not protect any specific levels.

The other day, the Japanese Finance Minister and the head of the Bank of Japan stressed that at this stage the focus is shifted to the rate of change in the exchange rate.

According to analysts, this approach can keep dollar bulls only from sudden movements, but in general USD/JPY will remain in a bullish trend.

In the future, the asset will move to new price highs quietly for several weeks. Perhaps at some point it will get bogged down in consolidation again, but the upcoming rate hike in the US will not allow it to go into suspended animation for a long time.

The monetary divergence of America and Japan, which has already collapsed the yen against the dollar by almost 28% since the beginning of the year, will continue to intensify and put pressure on the JPY.

This week, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda once again reaffirmed his commitment to a dovish monetary exchange rate.

He again stressed that he does not consider the current inflation a reason to raise rates, especially since the Japanese economy has not yet recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and still needs incentives.

Kuroda's comment further aggravated the divergence in the policy of the BOJ and the Fed, especially amid the fact that the market is now expecting further tightening in America.

This suggests that the yen's downward trend against the dollar will not change in the near future, even if the threat of further interventions will contribute to slowing the growth of the USD/JPY pair.

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IFX Gertrude
10-17-2022, 05:00 AM
US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.34%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221017/analytics634cc98901109.jpg

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.37%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 3.08%.

The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components today was JPMorgan Chase & Co, which gained 1.82 points or 1.66% to close at 111.19. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 3.22 points or 0.63% to close at 513.13. Boeing Co rose 0.75 points or 0.57% to close at 133.15.

The losers were shares of American Express Company, which lost 4.74 points or 3.35% to end the session at 136.81. Apple Inc was up 3.21% or 4.59 points to close at 138.40, while Chevron Corp was down 3.11% or 5.14 points to close at 160.14. .

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index following the results of today's trading were shares of U.S. Bancorp, which rose 3.36% to 42.76, Delta Air Lines Inc, which gained 2.30% to close at 31.08, and Wells Fargo & Company, which rose 1.86%, ending the session at 43.17.

The losers were First Republic Bank, which shed 16.45% to close at 112.57. Shares of The Mosaic Company shed 9.88% to end the session at 46.86. Quotes of CF Industries Holdings Inc decreased in price by 8.40% to 98.04.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Agrify Corp, which rose 53.75% to hit 1.45, Fednat Holding Co, which gained 48.02% to close at 0.52, and shares of Imara Inc, which rose 46.90% to end the session at 3.79.

The drop leaders were shares of TOP Financial Group Ltd, which fell in price by 73.47%, closing at 5.49. Shares of Alfi Inc lost 69.90% and ended the session at 0.25. Quotes of Novo Integrated Sciences Inc decreased in price by 61.94% to 0.29.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of depreciated securities (2506) exceeded the number of closed in positive territory (579), and quotes of 85 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,720 stocks fell, 1,005 rose, and 229 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.25% to 32.02.

Gold futures for December delivery shed 1.67%, or 28.05, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for November delivery fell 3.75%, or 3.34, to $85.77 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 2.93%, or 2.77, to $91.80 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.51% to hit 0.97, while USD/JPY was up 1.00% to hit 148.68.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.82% to 113.18.

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IFX Gertrude
10-19-2022, 06:02 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.12%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221019/analytics634f6bfda7e5d.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was up 1.12%, the S&P 500 was up 1.14% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.90%.

Salesforce Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 6.35 points or 4.31% to close at 153.53. Quotes of American Express Company rose by 4.45 points (3.14%), closing the session at 145.99. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) rose 2.98 points or 2.57% to close at 118.84.

The losers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 0.55 points or 2.08% to end the session at 25.87. Johnson & Johnson was up 0.58 points (0.35%) to close at 166.01, while Nike Inc was down 0.29 points (0.32%) to end at 89. 68.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Carnival Corporation, which rose 11.28% to 8.09, Lockheed Martin Corporation, which gained 8.69% to close at 431.84, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NYSE:NCLH), which rose 8.57% to close at 14.31.

The biggest losers were Moderna Inc, which shed 3.71% to close at 134.09. Shares of Hasbro Inc lost 2.88% to end the session at 65.76. Quotes of DexCom Inc decreased in price by 2.81% to 96.93.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were COMSovereign Holding Corp, which rose 170.14% to hit 0.12, Akouos Inc, which gained 88.16% to close at 13.19, and shares of Helbiz Inc, which rose by 58.07%, ending the session at around 0.42.

The biggest losers were Agrify Corp, which shed 58.60% to close at 4.43. Shares of Cosmos Holdings Inc lost 47.33% and ended the session at 0.08. Quotes of Salarius Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 45.18% to 2.74.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2293) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (825), while quotes of 115 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2441 companies rose in price, 1295 fell, and 277 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.77% to 30.50.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.43%, or 7.10, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 2.33%, or 1.97, to $82.56 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery fell 1.43%, or 1.31, to $90.31 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.20% to 0.99, while USD/JPY edged up 0.12% to hit 149.21.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.02% to 111.88.

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IFX Gertrude
10-20-2022, 08:56 AM
GBP/USD. A feast during the plague

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221020/analytics6350f1d69fe3a.jpg

Deputies quarrel, ministers are leaving, Truss' chair is shaking, inflation is rising.

The pound has started a black streak again, although the presence of a white one can be questioned. The burden of problems hangs over the British currency and it does not get better, on the contrary, there are new reasons to think about the potential achievement of parity for the GBP/USD pair.

The dollar gaining strength, the equally rapidly growing inflation in the UK, which the Bank of England continues to ignore, the specter of a recession. All this is happening during a possible change of power in Britain. The new prime minister has not had time to settle in the chair, as MPs want to send her after Boris Johnson. The government's twists and turns are not at the right time, but apparently there is no other way out.

Inflation

The pound fell for a moment after the release of inflation data. The new indicator turned out to be disappointing, the price index in the UK continued to accelerate, reflecting, among other things, the passivity of the local central bank.

In September, inflation moved to double digits, increasing from 9.9% to 10.1% against the consensus of economists of 10%. More importantly, the core inflation rate rose just as quickly, amounting to 6.5% compared to 6.3% in the previous month.

The highest figure in four decades, but succeeding figures are expected to be higher.

"The overall inflation rate will rise to almost 11% in October, primarily due to a 27% increase in energy prices. But in the first quarter, the overall figure should decrease to 9%, since the peak of growth in food and motor fuel prices has probably been reached," Pantheon Macroeconomics economists comment.

High inflation could be made an argument for strengthening the pound due to the aggressive rhetoric of the BoE, which, in theory, should have followed after another record price increase. Now nothing is keeping the central bank from raising the rate sharply at the November meeting, which was raised to 2.25% in September and is expected to rise to about 4% by the first months of the new year. In practice, things may be different.

However, some economists say this may now be less likely after recent scenes in the government. Most of the September budget plan was canceled this week in favor of a return to "austerity."

This leaves the economy on the path to a barely mitigated recession, which, according to the August monetary policy report, could last for about a quarter.

Everything is too complicated, and the authors of this confusion are British politicians.

Downing Street

The inflationary picture in the UK has been erased by reports of new layoffs in the ranks of high-ranking political officials. Following the sudden departure of former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, who was forced to resign on October 14, Interior Minister Sewelluella Braverman left her post.

The pound tried to grow amid large-scale losses on Wednesday. This movement, apparently, was a reaction to the departure of another high-ranking member of the government, followed by a decline in the yield of UK government bonds, which did not correspond to the internal inflationary picture.

Braverman was replaced by Grant Shapps, whom the prime minister had previously pushed to the back of the government.

Who's next? What other reshuffles are waiting for Britain and will this save the country from collapse?

Anyway, the pound likes what is happening with the change of the main characters.

The drop in yields on Wednesday did not correspond to the global background against which US bond yields were pushing other countries higher.

Dollar

Government reshuffles have a short-term impact on the pound. The reality is that the British currency lags behind not only the strong dollar, but also the weak euro.

The pound continued its downward trend, despite extremely high inflation and the rates of the financial markets on the increase in US bond yields after even more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve representatives.

The pound's illogical reaction to the consumer price index data highlights that the currency is "trading in a structural, not cyclical way. In a cyclical world, higher inflation will be accompanied by higher yields and a stronger currency," HSBC noted.

When markets are most concerned about structural risks, "higher inflation and higher yields are seen as symptoms of a broader problem," the economists explain.

The pound is likely to continue trading structurally until the country's authorities make more efforts to contain the domestic budget deficit or until inflation reaches a peak. In this case, stabilization of the bond market and the pound is possible. In the meantime, the downward trend is the main one. Sterling is waiting for a difficult few months, during which the GBP/USD exchange rate risks falling to 1.0800 and below.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221020/analytics6350ea0262e2d.jpg

The dollar rally, fueled by even more aggressive Fed rhetoric, will put more pressure on the lifeless pound.

Traders are revisiting US interest rate hikes closer to 5%. In November, the rate can be raised immediately by 100 bps.

The dollar rally in the middle of the week followed statements from Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari. The official signaled that he had "very little confidence in what inflation will be in six months" and argued that the central bank should keep raising rates until there was "convincing evidence" that the inflationary peak had passed.

As for rates, September forecasts suggested an upper limit of 4.5% by the end of the year. Concerns were also raised about a rise to 4.75% early next year.

Core inflation rose from 6.3% to 6.6% y/y in September, while the official or headline inflation rate remained stubbornly elevated at 8.2%.

After the reversal of the dollar index, expectations about reaching new highs again became more active. The current range is 112.00-114.00. These notes will remain relevant until the next FOMC meeting. If bulls manage to break above 114.00, gains will accelerate to a 2022 peak at 114.80.

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IFX Gertrude
10-21-2022, 04:28 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.30%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221021/analytics63520bdfce9f5.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.30%, the S&P 500 was down 0.80% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.61%.

The leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was International Business Machines, which gained 5.79 points (4.73%) to close at 128.30. Salesforce Inc rose 3.83 points or 2.49% to close at 157.50. Verizon Communications Inc rose 0.43 points or 1.18% to close at 37.00.

The biggest losers were Home Depot Inc, which shed 6.03 points or 2.19% to end the session at 269.46. Caterpillar Inc was up 2.10% or 3.87 points to close at 180.54 while Nike Inc was down 1.96% or 1.74 points to end at 86.83. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 components in today's trading were Lam Research Corp, which rose 7.81% to 355.87, AT&T Inc, which gained 7.72% to close at 16.74, and shares of Quest Diagnostics Incorporated, which rose 6.32% to close the session at 134.66.

The biggest losers were Allstate Corp, which shed 12.90% to close at 117.71. Shares of Union Pacific Corporation shed 6.80% to end the session at 186.45. Quotes of Tesla Inc decreased in price by 6.65% to 207.28.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Nextplay Technologies Inc, which rose 107.31% to hit 0.41, Cabaletta Bio Inc, which gained 50.77% to close at 1.96, and also shares of Save Foods Inc, which rose 31.33% to end the session at 1.97.

The biggest losers were Talaris Therapeutics Inc, which shed 43.39% to close at 1.37. Shares of LMF Acquisition Opportunities Inc shed 34.55% to end the session at 6.82. Quotes of Gaucho Group Holdings Inc decreased in price by 30.40% to 0.21.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2067) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1018), while quotes of 114 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2037 stocks fell, 1694 rose, and 240 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.54% to 29.98.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.17%, or 2.85, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 0.50%, or 0.42, to $84.94 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 0.25%, or 0.23, to $92.64 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.12% to 0.98, while USD/JPY rallied 0.19% to hit 150.18.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.07% to 112.81.

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IFX Gertrude
10-24-2022, 05:47 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 2.47%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221024/analytics6355fc1ef10ff.jpg

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 2.47% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 rose 2.37% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.31%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 10.88 points or 6.07% to close at 190.22. JPMorgan Chase & Co rose 6.10 points or 5.25% to close at 122.23. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 14.29 points or 4.60% to close at 325.10.

The losers were shares of Verizon Communications Inc, which shed 1.65 points or 4.46% to end the session at 35.35. American Express Company rose 1.67% or 2.38 points to close at 140.04, while Procter & Gamble Company rose 1.25% or 1.59 points to close at 128.58.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Schlumberger NV, which rose 10.33% to 50.41, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which gained 9.99% to close at 32. 03, as well as Huntington Bancshares Incorporated, which rose 9.47% to end the session at 14.45.

The drop leaders were SVB Financial Group shares, which lost 23.95% to close at 230.03. Shares of Robert Half International Inc lost 8.55% and ended the session at 73.01. Quotes of HCA Holdings Inc decreased in price by 5.69% to 196.74.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Huadi International Group Co Ltd, which rose 89.27% to hit 58.92, Altamira Therapeutics Ltd, which gained 58.64% to close at 0.52 , as well as shares of Missfresh Ltd ADR, which rose by 57.50%, ending the session at around 2.52.

The drop leaders were shares of Immunic Inc, which fell 77.39% to close at 2.08. Shares of Nextplay Technologies Inc lost 33.23% and ended the session at 0.28. Quotes of Kalera PLC decreased in price by 35.61% to 0.28.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2282) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (835), while quotes of 104 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2503 companies rose in price, 1265 fell, and 238 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.97% to 29.69.

Gold futures for December delivery added 1.40%, or 22.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 0.73%, or 0.62, to $85.13 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.24%, or 1.15, to $93.53 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.80% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY shed 1.75% to hit 147.51.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.90% to 111.80.

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IFX Gertrude
10-25-2022, 06:38 AM
US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 1.34%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221025/analytics6357552a19d11.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.34% to a one-month high, the S&P 500 was up 1.19% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.86%.

Amgen Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 9.38 points or 3.72% to close at 261.32. Quotes Coca-Cola Co rose by 1.61 points (2.88%), ending trading at 57.57. Home Depot Inc rose 7.73 points or 2.81% to close at 283.26.

The least gainers were Nike Inc, which lost 0.49 points or 0.55% to end the session at 88.01. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) was up 0.32 points or 0.31% to close at 101.72, while Chevron Corp was down 0.06 points or 0.03% to end the trading at 173.13.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were HCA Holdings Inc, which rose 7.02% to hit 210.47, Tractor Supply Company, which gained 5.30% to close at 207.83, and also shares of Regions Financial Corporation, which rose 5.28% to close the session at 20.55.

The least gainers were Las Vegas Sands Corp, which shed 10.29% to close at 35.05. Shares of Starbucks Corporation shed 5.47% to end the session at 83.76. Quotes of Wynn Resorts Limited decreased in price by 3.86% to 56.53.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Applied Genetic, which rose 62.43% to hit 0.39, Vaxcyte Inc (NASDAQ:PCVX), which gained 60.35% to close at 33. 00, as well as shares of Mullen Automotive Inc, which rose 32.94% to close the session at 0.50.

The least gainers were Tricida Inc, which shed 94.48% to close at 0.60. Shares of Alfi Inc lost 54.32% and ended the session at 0.11. Quotes of Huadi International Group Co Ltd decreased in price by 43.99% to 33.00.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1,751) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1,344), while quotes of 124 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1925 companies rose in price, 1828 fell, and 253 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.54% to 29.85.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.15%, or 2.55, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for December delivery fell 0.26%, or 0.22, to $84.83 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 0.13%, or 0.12, to $91.46 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.14% to 0.99, while USD/JPY edged up 0.98% to hit 149.09.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.04% to 111.93.

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IFX Gertrude
10-27-2022, 06:28 AM
Gold still attractive for buyers

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The price of gold dropped in the short term after reaching the 1,675 level. Now, it is traded at 1,664 at the time of writing. XAU/USD slipped lower as the DXY tried to rebound. Still, Gold could try to develop a new bullish momentum as the Dollar Index is under downside pressure.

Today, the fundamentals will drive the price, so you have to be careful. The ECB is expected to increase the Main Refinancing Rate from 1.25% to 2.00%. The Monetary Policy Statement and the ECB Press Conference could really shake the markets.

Also, the US Advance GDP is expected to register a 2.3% growth, Advance GDP Price Index may report a 5.3% growth, Unemployment Claims could be reported at 219K, Durable Goods Orders could register a 0.6% growth, while Core Durable Goods Orders may report a 0.2% growth.

As you can see on the H1 chart, XAU/USD found resistance at 1,668. The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the uptrend line. Technically, after its strong growth, a temporary drop was natural.

Staying near the 1,668 resistance may signal an imminent breakout. Temporary consolidation could bring more bullish energy and attract more buyers.

XAU/USD Forecast!

Staying above the minor uptrend line and making a valid breakout above 1,675 could confirm further growth. A new higher high is seen as a buying opportunity. The 1,700 psychological level and the R2 (1,699) represent upside targets.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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IFX Gertrude
10-28-2022, 09:33 AM
The Bank of Japan pushes the yen into a loop again

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Today, the Bank of Japan has once again confirmed its status as an outsider among global central banks. Despite the global tightening trend, the BOJ has decided to maintain ultra-low interest rates.

No changes on the Japanese front

At the end of the week, traders on the USD/JPY pair are focused on the BOJ meeting. At the start of Friday, the central bank issued its verdict on the further monetary exchange rate.

As expected, the BOJ did not present a hawkish surprise.

The central bank has maintained its policy guidelines: it left interest rates at -0.1% and promised to keep the yield of 10-year bonds at around 0%.

The BOJ continues to follow the dovish route, even despite the next jump in consumer prices. The report published today showed that in October, annual inflation in the country increased at the highest rate since 1989.

This month, the core CPI jumped to 3.4%, which is significantly higher than the BOJ target, which is at 2%. Nevertheless, the BOJ still considers the acceleration of inflation unsustainable.

The central bank expects consumer price growth to slow down to 1.6% over the next 12 months, although it has raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year.

According to BOJ estimates, the CPI will remain around 2.9% until March 2023, which is significantly higher than the previous estimate of 2.3%.

Another argument in favor of maintaining a soft monetary policy of the BOJ is the slow recovery of the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Now the central bank is concerned that a total increase in interest rates in the world could trigger a global recession, which would negatively affect the state of the already fragile Japanese economy.

Given this risk, the BOJ sharply lowered its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year. Now the central bank expects GDP to rise not by 2.4%, as before, but by only 2%, followed by a slowdown to 1.9%.

Such gloomy prospects are the BOJ's main obstacle on the way to normalizing its monetary policy. It forces the BOJ to take a marginal dovish position, which condemns the yen to further depreciation.

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What is happening with JPY now?

This year, the yen is experiencing the worst drawdown in almost all directions in history, but most of all against the dollar. Since January, due to the strong monetary divergence of Japan and the United States, the JPY rate has fallen against the USD by more than 20%.

Unlike the BOJ, the Federal Reserve has embarked on a hawkish track this year and has significantly outpaced other central banks in terms of rate hikes.

In order to curb record high inflation in the country, American politicians have already raised interest rates five times during the year and are preparing to hold another round of hikes next week.

Now the markets expect that in November the Fed will again increase the indicator by 75 bps, which is an excellent driver for the dollar, especially when paired with the yen.

However, at the same time, most traders believe that by December, the US central bank may slow down the rate of tightening to 50 bps, as the American economy begins to show signs of slowing down.

The emergence of speculation about the Fed's less hawkish policy caused the greenback to sharply weaken on all fronts this seven-day period, including against the yen.

Recall that last week the dollar reached a new 32-year high relative to the yen, approaching the 152 mark. Since then, the USD/JPY pair has fallen by almost 4%.

In part, the greenback's position was undermined by two cycles of interventions, which Japan is supposed to have conducted in support of the yen. But the main pressure on the dollar was still exerted by increased expectations of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes in America.

Now that the USD/JPY pair has received another powerful boost from the BOJ, analysts expect it to return to growth.

At the time of preparation of the material, the yen really moved into the red zone and fell against the dollar by 0.35%. According to experts, in the short term, the yen's decline may accelerate significantly.

Memories of last month are still vivid in the minds of many, when the dovish comments of BOJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda caused a sharp weakening of the yen. And just half an hour after Kuroda finished his speech, the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted the first currency intervention in 24 years.

Some analysts do not rule out that in the near future the market may catch deja vu.

If the dollar bulls break loose again, the Japanese government will most likely not hesitate for a long time and press the red button.

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IFX Gertrude
11-01-2022, 02:04 AM
De-dollarization or de-eurozation? Analysts consider both scenarios possible

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Analysts have been discussing the possible ditch of the US dollar in foreign settlements for a long time. However, now, they do not exclude a similar scenario for the euro. Analysts are mulling over what could lead to such outcomes. They fear that in the near future the European currency will face the same challenges as the Us dollar. Currently, many countries are trying to replace the US dollar in mutual settlements.

Analysts pinpoint that the euro has more disadvantages than advantages. Settlements in the euro and its support are getting more expensive. According to the Eurobarometer, the euro is popular with 60% of the population. However, now many EU citizens are skeptical about the future of the euro. Some economists reckon that some EU states may leave the eurozone and ditch the euro.

Earlier, economists suggested a possible replacement of the US currency by many countries. However, the euro is now facing such a risk as well. De-eurozation looks quite feasible. However, the situation in the global financial market is unlikely to change in the near future, economists believe.

Currently, the authorities of many countries are trying to diversify their foreign exchange reserves to reduce dependence on the greenback. However, a sharp decline in the dollar share of international reserves looks unlikely as roughly 40% of the world's transactions are done in dollars.

The use of national currencies in international settlements spurs their demand and reduces dependence on the Fed's monetary policy. At the same time, the current geopolitical turmoil is fueling a rally of the US dollar as many countries prefer to keep the US currency in their reserves.

At the start of the week, the euro was trading almost at the same levels. On October 31, the EUR/USD pair was fluctuating near 0.9952, slightly below the previous pivot level of 0.9963.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the euro area's important macroeconomic report, namely GDP for the third quarter of 2022. According to preliminary estimates, from July to September, the economy declined slightly to 2.1%. In the second quarter of 2022, this figure totaled 4.1%.

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The greenback has been rising for some time thanks to the Fed's hawkish stance. On November 2, the Bank of England and the Fed will hold their meetings. The Fed is widely expected to raise the key rate by 75 basis points to the range of 3.75-4%.

The Fed's key rate decision may significantly impact market sentiment. Some analysts believe that the regulator could switch to less aggressive tightening despite a 75 basis point rate hike. However, other analysts are certain that the regulator will hike the rate by 75 basis points at the next meeting scheduled for December 14.

At the February meeting in 2023, the watchdog is expected to increase the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%. Analysts suppose that three will be more 25 basis point rate increases next year. Such a scenario is bearish for the US dollar. The euro is also unable to regain long-term rise. Thus, it is recommended to buy the EUR/USD pair with a long-term target level above 1.0500.

Many economists are afraid that sentiment will become more bearish on the US currency. Last week, large traders initiated a sell-off of the greenback. As a result, the number of short positions during the week increased by 21%. If there are no positive fundamental favors, the greenback may drop lower.

Nevertheless, the US dollar remains the most popular currency, with close to 90% of all currency trades having the dollar as one leg of the transaction. It has been rallying for some time amid the Fed's aggressive tightening. In the last few months, the US dollar has reached multi-year highs against the euro, the pound sterling, the yen, and the yuan. It also took advantage of a recession in the eurozone as investors got rid of the euro in favor of the US dollar.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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IFX Gertrude
11-01-2022, 05:49 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.39%

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At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.39%, the S&P 500 fell 0.75% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.03%.

The leading gainers among the components of the Dow Jones index today were The Travelers Companies Inc, which gained 2.59 points (1.42%) to close at 184.55. Quotes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose by 3.03 points (0.89%), ending trading at 344.85. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 4.11 points or 0.75% to close at 555.35.

The losers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 0.64 points or 2.20% to end the session at 28.43. Microsoft Corporation was up 1.59% or 3.74 points to close at 232.13, while Dow Inc was down 1.58% or 0.75 points to close at 46.73 .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Wynn Resorts Limited, which rose 9.61% to hit 63.90, Coterra Energy Inc, which gained 3.49% to close at 31.15, and also shares of DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc, which rose 3.47% to end the session at 72.99.

The biggest losers were Global Payments Inc, which shed 8.83% to close at 114.25. Shares of Newell Brands Inc shed 8.24% to end the session at 13.81. Quotes of Meta Platforms Inc decreased in price by 6.09% to 93.16.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Sonnet Biotherapeutics Holdings Inc, which rose 66.38% to 1.93, Acorda Therapeutics Inc, which gained 63.36% to close at 1.07. as well as shares of Shineco Inc, which rose 37.96% to close the session at 1.09.

The biggest loser was Y mAbs Therapeutics, which shed 59.80% to close at 3.61. Shares of Tusimple Holdings Inc lost 45.64% to end the session at 3.43. Quotes Bull Horn Holdings Corp. decreased in price by 45.61% to 6.50.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1604) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1472), while quotes of 118 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, papers of 2004 companies fell, 1753 rose, and 165 remained at the level of the previous closing.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 0.50% to 25.88.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.53%, or 8.65, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 1.95%, or 1.71, to $86.19 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 1.32%, or 1.24, to $92.53 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.80% to hit 0.99, while USD/JPY was up 0.87% to hit 148.74.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.77% to 111.45.

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IFX Gertrude
11-02-2022, 06:28 AM
The U.S. stock market closed lower, the Dow Jones fell 0.24%

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At closing time on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.24%, the S&P 500 was down 0.41% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.89%.

The leaders among Dow Jones index components in today's trading were shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. which gained 2.28p (1.81%) to close at 128.16. Nike Inc rose 1.09 pct (1.18%) to close at 93.77. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 3.94p (1.14%) to close at 348.45.

The least gainers were shares of Apple Inc, which fell 2.69p (1.75%) to close the session at 150.65. Salesforce Inc shares rose 2.79p (1.72%) to close at 159.80, while Microsoft Corporation dropped 3.96p (1.71%) to close at 228.17.

The top gainers among S&P 500 index components in today's trading were ABIOMED Inc which gained 49.88% to 377.82, IDEXX Laboratories Inc which gained 9.80% to close at 394.93, and Hologic Inc which gained 9.34% to end the session at 74.13.

Catalent Inc shares were the fallers, down 24.62% to close at 49.55. Shares of Zebra Technologies Corporation lost 15.86% and ended the session at 238.30. Ecolab Inc dropped 8.98% to 142.96.

The gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index in today's trading were shares of ABIOMED Inc. which gained 49.88% to 377.82, Sonnet Biotherapeutics Holdings Inc. which gained 46.63% to close at 2.83 and shares of NLS Pharmaceutics AG which gained 44.00% to close the session at 0.74.

Varonis Systems shares were the fallers, dropping 35.49% to close at 17.27. Shares of China Liberal Education Holdings lost 27.39% to end the session at 1.14. Acorda Therapeutics Inc. was down 25.22% to 0.80.

On the NYSE, 1,960 securities gained more than 1,172 which closed negative and 95 were flat. On NASDAQ, 2,101 stocks gained in value, 1,680 declined, and 194 remained flat.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on the S&P 500 options trade, fell 0.27% to 25.81.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.55%, or 8.95, to $1.00 per troy ounce. In other commodities, December WTI crude oil futures rose 2.02%, or 1.75, to $88.28 a barrel. January Brent crude futures traded up 1.83%, or 1.70, to $94.51 per barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD remained unchanged 0.08% to 0.99, while USD/JPY dropped 0.33% to 148.23.

The USD index futures rose 0.02% to 111.44.

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IFX Gertrude
11-03-2022, 11:49 PM
Asian stock indices decline after robust rally

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Today, Asian indices declined by up to 3%. In general, they showed slight declines. The Korean KOSPI decreased by 0.29%, and the Chinese Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite indices dropped by 0.63% and 0.59% respectively. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index were among the top losers, plummeting by 1.77% and 2.9% respectively. Japan's stock exchanges are closed today because of the holiday but yesterday Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped by 0.06%.

Asian indicators traditionally follow the US indices, which showed a decline of up to 3.3%. This was due to the release of the US Federal Reserve's decision to raise the rate by 0.75%, to 3.75-4%.

Although the increase coincided with experts' forecasts, investors fear an economic downturn, as the rate reached a record high for 14 years. In addition, the Fed chairman's statement warned them that the central regulator had no plans to reduce the pace of rate hikes so far. Thus, the risk of a recession is getting higher but the Fed is going to continue its policy in order to bring inflation under control. Softer monetary policy, according to the head of the Fed, will be discussed either at the next meeting in December or as early as next year.

According to the fresh data, China's PMI declined last month to 48.3 points from September's level of 48.5 points. If this indicator falls below 50 points, it indicates a decrease in business activity. Experts note that such a value was due to the country's strict policy against the spread of the coronavirus.

Due to the fact that Lenovo Group managed to increase its net profit by 6% in the second quarter of the fiscal year, while its revenue decreased by 4%, its share price declined by 0.8%.

CanSino Biologics, Inc.'s stock price plummeted by 26.5% after the company announced that it was not expected to increase profits from sales of China's first inhalation vaccine against coronavirus due to the high level of competition and an overall decline in demand.

Following this statement, other representatives of the pharmaceutical industry also showed declines. Securities of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, Ltd. fell by 10.1%, and Sino Biopharmaceutical, Ltd. dropped by 5.9%.

Also among the components of the Hong Kong Hang Seng index, Netease, Inc. slipped by 6.7%, Sands China, Ltd. lost 6.1% as well as Alibaba Group Holding, Ltd. fell by 6%.

Among the components of the Korean KOSPI, Samsung Electronics dropped by 0.8%, as well as Hyundai Motor lost 2.1%.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index also showed declines. BHP lost 3.1% and Rio Tinto declined by 2.3%.

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IFX Gertrude
11-04-2022, 09:23 AM
Where is the USD/JPY ceiling?

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The dollar is back on horseback and aims to continue the rally on all fronts, including against the yen. But how far can USD/JPY go if there are intervention barriers on its way?

The dollar is sprinting

The US central bank once again raised interest rates by 75 bps, but signaled that it may be approaching a tipping point in its aggressive anti-inflationary campaign.

Such a dovish remark literally undermined the dollar's position in all directions. However, a little later, the mood in the market changed: dollar bulls received a calming pill from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The official dispelled traders' concerns about a possible slowdown in the pace of tightening. He categorically stated that it was too early to discuss a slowdown and hinted at higher final interest rates in America.

In light of Powell's latest comments, the market has revised its forecast for the US interest rate upwards. Investors now expect the figure to peak at 5.15% by June next year.

Strengthening hawkish sentiment has served as a great driver for the yield of 10-year US government bonds. Yesterday, the figure jumped to 4.16%, which contributed to a sharp rise in the dollar.

On Friday night, the DXY index rose 0.8% and tested the highest level in almost two weeks at 113.15.

This put the greenback on track for a weekly gain. Since Monday, the dollar has already strengthened by 2% against its main competitors. This trend has not been seen since September.

Last night, the USD showed a parabolic gain against the pound (+2%), and also performed well against the euro, Australian and New Zealand dollars, rising against all currencies by 0.7%.

As for the yen, the greenback grew the least against it - by 0.2%. Its rise was limited by the heightened risk of intervention by the Japanese government.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221104/analytics6364bb6d1b1d6.jpg

Forecast for USD/JPY

On Friday morning, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again repeated his warning to currency speculators. He stated that the authorities would not put up with a sharp weakening of the yen and would take all necessary measures in the event of a new attack on the JPY.

The increased threat of intervention from the Ministry of Finance of Japan did not come as a surprise to traders. Many anticipated this development, given the current fundamental picture, which points to a further increase in monetary divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Fed.

Recall that at the last seven-day period, the BOJ again confirmed its commitment to ultra-soft policy and left interest rates in negative territory.

This was the first negative signal for the yen. The second already came this week, when Powell made it clear that the final level of interest rates in the US could be higher than previously expected.

Double pressure leaves no chance for the JPY, so the Japanese government has no choice but to be fully armed.

Of course, bulls are well aware that the effect of future interventions is likely to be as short-lived as the previous ones. Despite this, they still do not dare to play with fire.

According to some analysts, this situation may drag on. Fear of intervention will keep the USD/JPY pair in deep consolidation for at least a few more days until some compelling trigger appears on the horizon.

It is probably not worth hoping that the major will receive a strong impetus from the US economic data. Most likely, fresh statistics on inflation will inspire dollar bulls to new exploits.

If the market does not see signs of a slowdown in consumer price growth in November, this will be another argument for the Fed in favor of further aggressive tightening.

"Sustained inflation may indeed force the Fed to raise the final level of rates significantly higher than the initial estimate up to 5% and even more," MUFG Bank strategists argue. In this case, we expect USD/JPY to rise from its current level of 148 to 155, which, apparently, will be its ceiling.

Experts are also considering a more optimistic scenario, in which the quote may rise to the highest level since April 1990 at 160.35. This will only happen if there is talk of an even higher US final rate range of 5.5% to 6%.

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IFX Gertrude
11-07-2022, 08:05 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.26%

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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 rose 1.36%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.28%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Nike Inc, which gained 5.43 points (6.01%) to close at 95.83. Quotes Dow Inc rose by 2.52 points (5.41%), ending trading at 49.01. Caterpillar Inc rose 4.37% or 9.58 points to close at 228.84.

The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 6.54 points or 4.47% to end the session at 139.79. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 5.46 points (1.00%) to close at 538.15, while Apple Inc shed 0.27 points (0.19%) to end at 138. 38.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which rose 11.53% to 35.20, Estee Lauder Companies Inc, which gained 8.69% to close at 210.62, as well as Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which rose 8.55% to end the session at 41.02.

The least gainers were Warner Bros Discovery Inc, which shed 12.87% to close at 10.43. Shares of Live Nation Entertainment Inc shed 7.25% to end the session at 70.88. ServiceNow Inc lost 6.12% to 361.95.

Among the components of the NASDAQ Composite Index today, the leaders of growth were Huadi International Group Co Ltd, which rose 70.26% to 180.00, Sentage Holdings Inc, which gained 34.54% to close at 4.09 , as well as shares of Digimarc Corporation, which rose 29.35% to close the session at 18.95.

The least gainers were Pulmonx Corp, which shed 60.94% to close at 4.82. Shares of Funko Inc lost 59.38% and ended the session at 7.92. Quotes of Sensus Healthcare Inc decreased in price by 51.23% to 6.34.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2275) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (839), while quotes of 85 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2070 companies rose in price, 1658 fell, and 202 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.96% to 24.55, hitting a new monthly low.

Gold futures for December delivery added 3.30%, or 53.90, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 5.08%, or 4.48, to $92.65 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 4.24%, or 4.01, to $98.68 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 2.16% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY shed 1.12% to hit 146.60.

Futures on the USD index fell 1.91% to 110.65.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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IFX Gertrude
11-08-2022, 09:01 AM
The dollar is building muscle, but fears a loss in the long run

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In the short and medium-term planning horizons, the US currency will remain afloat, although from time to time it shows a decline. However, traders and analysts are worried about the long-term prospects of USD, as the greenback is losing its position in the global financial market.

The dollar fell at the beginning of this week, remaining weak on Tuesday, November 8, amid the strengthening of the European and Chinese currencies. Later, the greenback "built up its muscles" and partially won back its positions, rising in price against the euro and the yen. Recall that last Friday, November 4, the dollar index (USDX) lost over 2%. This is one of the largest intraday declines in the last 20 years, experts emphasize. In a similar situation, dollar bulls capitulated, failing to give momentum to the US currency.

However, the greenback does not give up, trying to bypass the euro and other competitors of the financial market. On the morning of Tuesday, November 8, the key EUR/USD currency pair began with the consolidation of parity and headed above the 50-day moving average. According to analysts, the upward trend in the EUR/USD pair remains in force, while the pair has reached 1.0001.

The EUR/USD pair started the current week with steady growth, but further recovery is questionable. According to experts, in the short term, the EUR/USD pair can test a three-month high of 1.0200. The pair has currently restored the bullish dynamics and is cruising near parity.

Analysts pay attention to how the euro's dynamics are unstable compared to the dollar. This is facilitated by the growth of negative sentiment about the possible onset of recession in the eurozone. A decrease or slowdown in a number of fundamental indicators that affect the EUR in the long term adds fuel to the fire.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221108/analytics6369f96d64041.jpg

According to analysts, the euro's movements depend on the dollar's dynamics, geopolitical news and divergence between the strategies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The US central bank's recent decision to raise rates and the likelihood of a prolonged tightening of the monetary policy on its part is the main obstacle to a steady recovery of the EUR/USD pair. According to economists, the inflation rate in the US fell slightly in October, but any unscheduled rate hike will have negative consequences for the euro. The prerequisites for such a forecast were the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that the current macro data justify a significant rise in interest rates for the next year.

This week, market participants expect annual inflation in the US to slow down to 8%. Recall that in September, this figure was 8.2%. To date, inflation has retreated from the peak value of 9.1%, but remained above the Fed's target level of 2%. Against this background, experts are confident that the Fed will raise the interest rate again in December, but only by 0.5 percentage points.

According to previous forecasts, by the end of 2022, interest rates in the United States could reach 4.5%, and by the beginning of 2023 4.75%. However, Powell's recent speech forced the financial markets to reconsider these decisions. According to preliminary calculations, the possible peak of the federal funds rate in the United States will be 5%. This will allow the greenback to strengthen, but weaken the euro, experts are certain.

The US currency currently remains under pressure, as market participants continue to evaluate the Fed's recent statements, which indicate difficulties in the process of normalization of monetary policy. According to Scotiabank's currency strategists, USD will remain stable in the short term, but in the long term it is expected to undergo a "significant correction". According to experts, the current dollar rally has been "unnecessarily prolonged", and this may provoke its collapse. However, the USD will not fall until the Fed's tightening cycle ends, analysts believe. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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IFX Gertrude
11-09-2022, 06:45 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.02%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.02% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index grew 0.56%, the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 0.49%.

Amgen Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 15.37 points or 5.55% to close at 292.39. Quotes Boeing Co jumped by 4.71 points (2.86%), closing at 169.62. American Express Company rose 2.19% or 3.22 points to close at 150.20.

The worst performers were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which shed 0.30 points or 0.78% to end the session at 38.29. The Walt Disney Company was up 0.53 points (0.53%) to close at 99.90, while Chevron Corp was down 0.27 points (0.15%) to close at 185. 34.

The top performers in the S&P 500 index today were SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which surged 19.13% to 251.73, Expeditors International of Washington Inc, which gained 9.06% to close at 104.40, as well as Welltower Inc, which increased by 8.22% to end the session at 66.51.

The least gainers were Take-Two Interactive Software Inc, which shed 13.68% to close at 93.57. Shares of Medtronic PLC lost 6.25% to end the session at 80.19. Quotes of International Flavors & Fragrances Inc decreased in price by 4.96% to 91.41.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Taskus Inc, which rose 37.22% to hit 22.01, GrowGeneration Corp, which gained 35.05% to close at 4.47, and Skywater Technology Inc, which rose 31.60% to end the session at 11.37.

The least gainers were Bioventus Inc, which shed 57.51% to close at 3.00. Shares of R1 RCM Inc lost 49.76% and ended the session at 7.41. Quotes of Athersys Inc decreased in price by 43.36% to 1.28.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1834) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1256), while quotes of 125 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,894 stocks fell, 1,771 rose, and 259 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 4.89% to 25.54.

Gold futures for December delivery added 2.15%, or 36.20, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 2.83%, or 2.60, to $89.19 a barrel. Brent futures for January delivery fell 2.39%, or 2.34, to $95.58 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD climbed 0.56% to hit 1.01, while USD/JPY fell 0.73% to hit 145.55.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.46% to 109.49.

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IFX Gertrude
11-10-2022, 05:41 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.95%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221110/analytics636c63a1a21db.jpg

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.95%, the S&P 500 fell 2.08%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 2.48%.

Merck & Company Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 0.09 points (0.09%) to close at 101.59. Quotes of McDonald's Corporation fell by 0.61 points (0.22%) to end trading at 277.79. Procter & Gamble Company lost 0.33 points or 0.24% to close at 136.48.

The least gainers were Walt Disney Company, which fell 13.15 points or 13.16% to end the session at 86.75. Chevron Corp was up 4.00% or 7.41 points to close at 177.93 while Dow Inc was down 3.97% or 1.97 points to close at 47.68. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Akamai Technologies Inc, which rose 6.19% to hit 89.08, Gen Digital Inc, which gained 6.01% to close at 22.92, and also shares of Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc, which rose 5.67% to end the session at 403.49.

The least gainer was Walt Disney Company, which shed 13.16% to close at 86.75. Shares of Occidental Petroleum Corporation shed 9.22% to end the session at 67.93. Quotes Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd fell in price by 8.74% to 15.77.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Merrimack Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 212.75% to 12.51, Outset Medical Inc, which gained 29.90% to close at 14.90, and also shares of Neurobo Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 29.60% to close the session at 1.62.

The least gainers were Clovis Oncology Inc, which shed 71.62% to close at 0.28. Shares of Telos Corp lost 68.84% and ended the session at 3.44. Quotes of Athersys Inc decreased in price by 56.45% to 0.56.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2539) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (564), while quotes of 97 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,848 stocks fell, 900 rose, and 221 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 2.15% to 9/26.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.44% or 7.60 to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 3.77%, or 3.35, to $85.56 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.15%, or 3.00, to $92.36 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.62% to hit 1.00, while USD/JPY was up 0.52% to hit 146.41.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.75% to 110.37.

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IFX Gertrude
11-11-2022, 09:45 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 3.70%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221111/analytics636dafbc29c04.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 3.70% to a one-month high, the S&P 500 rose 5.54% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 7.35%.

Salesforce Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, up 14.24 points or 10.02% to close at 156.30. Quotes of Apple Inc rose by 12.00 points (8.90%), ending trading at 146.87. Home Depot Inc rose 24.95 points or 8.70% to close at 311.70.

Shares of McDonald's Corporation led the decline, losing 1.91 points (0.69%) to end the session at 275.88. Merck & Company Inc was down 0.30 points (0.30%) to close at 101.89 while Amgen Inc was up 0.47% or 1.36 points to close at 291. .01.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Invesco Plc, which rose 17.85% to hit 18.75, Caesars Entertainment Corporation, which gained 17.83% to close at 50.62, and shares of T. Rowe Price Group Inc, which rose 16.36% to close the session at 124.65.

The least gainers were McKesson Corporation, which shed 4.12% to close at 370.32. Shares of Cardinal Health Inc shed 2.79% to end the session at 77.93. Quotes of Altria Group decreased in price by 2.19% to 44.22.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Fast Radius Inc, which rose 156.19% to hit 0.26, SHF Holdings Inc, which gained 85.78% to close at 3.79, and also shares of EpicQuest Education Group International Ltd, which rose 73.79% to close the session at 1.79.

The least gainers were Apyx Medical Inc, which shed 60.45% to close at 1.74. Shares of Veru Inc lost 53.56% and ended the session at 6.97. Quotes of AGBA Acquisition Ltd decreased in price by 50.89% to 5.50.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2830) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (347), while quotes of 80 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,100 companies rose in price, 694 fell, and 216 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 9.81% to 23.53, hitting a new monthly low.

Gold futures for December delivery added 2.68%, or 45.95, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery rose 0.55%, or 0.47, to $86.30 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 0.90%, or 0.83, to $93.48 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 2.03% to 1.02, while USD/JPY shed 3.97% to hit 140.62.

Futures on the USD index fell 2.55% to 107.65.

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IFX Gertrude
11-15-2022, 01:50 AM
Gas in Europe jumped in price by 20%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221114/analytics63728602c244b.jpg

The exchange price of gas on the ICE Futures platform soared above $1,150 per thousand cubic meters on Monday. The cost of the December futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose by 10% and by 11:32 London time reached $1168. Already in the evening, the cost of gas in Europe soared by 20%, by 18:46 London time they reached the level of $1250.

But prices in the spot market are much lower. The value of the contract with the delivery "day ahead" (November 14) was $716.6. The average price of spot contracts in November is even lower - $605.8.

The rise in prices occurred amid a sharp cooling in some European regions. Temperatures are expected to drop significantly over the weekend and early next week in parts of Northern Europe and Germany, down to freezing temperatures. This Maxar Technologies forecast suggests that winter is coming and that the commodity market is entering a strong phase.

But in addition to the forecasts, sad for European inhabitants, energy prices are also supported by the prospect of limiting supplies from Norway, one of the largest gas suppliers to Europe. The fact is that work at the Asgard field was stopped in some places due to identified technological problems. The message about these problems came to the world media from the Norwegian international energy company Equinor, which is the owner of Asgard. Last Sunday, a fire broke out in the platform's transformer, due to which production on it was stopped, and the personnel were evacuated. For this reason, daily nominations have decreased by about 7%. aggravated by the fact that there is no talk about the timing of recovery in the media.

On top of that, on Monday at a large gas processing plant in Norway (gas is being prepared there for deliveries to the UK), personnel were evacuated and even the police came. Details of what happened there have not yet been received. The operator of the Norwegian GTS only said that this unpleasant incident did not disrupt the planned flow of gas to Europe, although it clearly increased the anxiety of buyers.

Recall that due to fears of a ban on the import of Russian energy resources in March, stock gas quotes updated their historical highs for four consecutive days. The price record was reached on March 7 at $3892. In the period April-May, the cost of gas began to fall, but rose again in the summer months. In August, the average settlement price began to exceed $2,450, and this was a new record for the entire history of the operation of gas hubs in Europe, that is, since 1996.

This autumn, gas quotes finally began to decline. The average settlement price of the nearest futures in September was at the level of $2093, and in October it was already $1377. This is probably due to the high level of occupancy of gas storage facilities in Europe. By the way, the total level of blue fuel in underground storage facilities in Germany is already 99.89%. In any case, this is what the German Federal Network Agency said. And at the same time, they noted that it is still impossible to exclude the worsening of the situation.

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IFX Gertrude
11-15-2022, 06:29 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.63%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221115/analytics6372fbe3e307b.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.63%, the S&P 500 fell 0.89%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 1.12%.

Merck & Company Inc was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 2.39 points or 2.44% to close at 100.35. Quotes of Johnson & Johnson rose by 2.66 points (1.57%), ending trading at 171.91. Visa Inc Class A rose 1.86 points or 0.91% to close at 206.86.

The least gainers were Walmart Inc, which shed 4.19 points or 2.94% to end the session at 138.39. Home Depot Inc was up 2.55% or 8.02 points to close at 306.92 while Dow Inc was down 2.24% or 1.19 points to close at 51. 95.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 5.21% to hit 107.76, PENN Entertainment Inc, which gained 4.59% to close at 37.63. as well as Moderna Inc, which rose 4.57% to close the session at 179.03.

The least gainers were Hasbro Inc, which shed 9.86% to close at 57.16. Shares of Bath & Body Works Inc. lost 8.17% and ended the session at 33.06. Quotes of SVB Financial Group decreased in price by 6.73% to 219.76.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Opiant Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 111.58% to hit 20.10, Freight Technologies Inc, which gained 113.15% to close at 0.44, and also shares of Toughbuilt Industries Inc, which rose 72.27% to end the session at 3.79.

The least gainers were Satsuma Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 83.22% to close at 0.68. Shares of Sellas Life Sciences Group Inc lost 43.96% to end the session at 2.55. Quotes of Nuwellis Inc decreased in price by 40.00% to 0.12.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2188) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (956), while quotes of 111 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,257 companies fell in price, 1,538 rose, and 202 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 5.37% to 23.73.

Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.30%, or 5.30, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 4.24%, or 3.77, to $85.19 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.57%, or 3.43, to $92.56 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.21% to 1.03, while USD/JPY advanced 0.77% to hit 139.86.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.53% to 106.73.

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IFX Gertrude
11-16-2022, 09:57 AM
USD/JPY: the dollar maneuvered and fished

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221116/analytics637490b0a411a.jpg

A storm hit the foreign exchange market on Tuesday. Strong volatility was observed in all dollar majors, including the USD/JPY pair. However, in the end, the US currency got away with it.

Yen under dovish pressure

Yesterday turned out to be very eventful in terms of information and therefore pretty exhausted traders. The main weather vane of the foreign exchange market, the dollar, reacted extremely sharply to all events and changed its direction literally after every news.

The biggest price fluctuations on Tuesday were observed on the USD/JPY chart. At the start of the day, the dollar gained a confident upper hand over the yen, as it was under pressure from weak Japanese economic data.

The GDP statistics published yesterday for the third quarter showed a sharp decline in the indicator. On an annualized basis, the country's economy shrank by 1.2%, while growth of 1.1% was expected.

Such a serious drop in the pound further convinced the market that in the near future the Bank of Japan will not retreat from its dovish strategy.

To support the fragile economy, the central bank will continue to implement its unprecedented stimulus programs and keep interest rates in negative territory.

This means that the monetary divergence between Japan and America, where further rate hikes are expected, will continue to grow. This scenario is negative for the yen.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221116/analytics637490e8c0959.jpg

USD's hawkish foundation is bursting at the seams

As for the positive factors for the Japanese currency, the most important catalyst remains the slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening in the United States. The growth of speculation on this topic last week helped the JPY to strengthen significantly against the greenback.

Yesterday, yen bulls received another argument in favor of the fact that the Federal Reserve's transition to less hawkish actions is more real than it seems.

After unexpectedly soft data on consumer inflation in the US, which came out last week, the same weak report on producer prices followed.

Last month, the PPI indicator grew by 8% in annual terms. This is less than the forecast estimate (8.3%) and lower than the value recorded in September (8.4%).

It is quite obvious that the overall price pressure in America is moving downward, and the Fed will most likely decide to slow down, said currency strategist Karl Schamotta.

Another weakening of the hawkish expectations of the market again hurt the dollar. Immediately after the release of the producer price index, greenback tested a new 3-month low at 105.35.

The dollar fell in all directions, but most of all against the yen. Literally overnight, the USD/JPY pair plunged by more than 150 points, to the level of 137.62.

An unexpected driver for the dollar

However, the dollar-yen asset did not have to be a loser for long. It recovered its losses fairly quickly, springing back up to the area of 139.50.

The greenback was supported by the Empire State index of industrial activity from the Fed Bank of New York. It turned out that in November the indicator increased from -9.1 to 4.5, exceeding economists' expectations.

Also, the greenback was strengthened by comments from members of the Fed. Several officials stressed yesterday that the central bank's work to reduce inflation is still far from being completed.

But the US currency received the strongest impetus from the growth of geopolitical tensions. On Tuesday evening, Western media reported the fall of Russian missiles on the territory of Poland, resulting in the death of two people. At the same time, Moscow denied its involvement in the incident.

Now the markets are afraid that a blow to Poland, which is a member of NATO, could lead to another escalation of the conflict between the West and Russia. Against this background, the dollar, which is considered the best safe haven currency, is showing growth in all directions.

On Wednesday morning, the dollar index rose 0.19% to 106.63. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair jumped by 0.4% and was trading near the 140 level.

Analysts draw attention to the fact that in the short term, the further dynamics of the major will depend on the news headlines around the emergency in Poland.

Also, its rate may be affected by the release of data on the volume of retail sales in the United States and the speeches of the Fed speakers.

The technical picture for the USD/JPY pair

Despite the fluctuations of the DXY index, the dollar-yen pair formed a double bottom figure on the chart, which led to a bullish reversal of the asset.

The major rose above the 20th and 50th EMA by 139.55 and 139.90, respectively. This significantly enhances the upward filters.

Also, at the moment, the relative strength index of the RSI is trying to move into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. In case of successful completion of this scenario, dollar bulls will feel even greater strength.

If bulls manage to break above Monday's high of 140.80, this could lead to a breakout of the double bottom and significantly fuel the dollar. Then traders will focus on the 142.49 mark.

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IFX Gertrude
11-17-2022, 06:24 AM
US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.12%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221117/analytics6375a0f0efc2a.jpg

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was down 0.12%, the S&P 500 was down 0.83% and the NASDAQ Composite was down 1.54%.

McDonald's Corporation was the leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.67 points or 1.74% to close at 272.51. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 8.51 points or 1.69% to close at 511.52. Home Depot Inc rose 0.96% or 2.98 points to close at 314.91.

The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 6.95 points or 4.29% to end the session at 155.12. Intel Corporation was up 3.84% or 1.18 points to close at 29.53, while Dow Inc was down 2.11% or 1.09 points to close at 50.51. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were TJX Companies Inc, which rose 5.19% to hit 79.02, Campbell Soup Company, which gained 3.89% to close at 50.71, and also shares of W. R. Berkley Corp, which rose 3.83% to end the session at 71.76.

The least gainers were Advance Auto Parts Inc, which shed 15.06% to close at 156.24. Shares of Carnival Corporation shed 13.71% to end the session at 9.63. Quotes of Target Corporation decreased in price by 13.14% to 155.47.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Fast Radius Inc, which rose 106.29% to hit 0.21, Qurate Retail Inc Series B, which gained 45.90% to close at 10.41 , as well as shares of InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 36.33% to close the session at 3.79.

The least gainers were shares of Dlocal Ltd, which lost 50.71% to close at 10.46. Shares of Brainsway Ltd lost 31.56% and ended the session at 2.19. Quotes of Cuentas Inc decreased in price by 28.00% to 0.25.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2104) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1012), while quotes of 119 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,616 companies fell in price, 1,142 rose, and 236 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 1.75% to 11/24.

Gold Futures for December delivery added 0.04%, or 0.65, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for December delivery fell 1.83%, or 1.59, to $85.33 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 1.29%, or 1.21, to $92.65 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.43% to 1.04, while USD/JPY advanced 0.15% to hit 139.49.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.13% to 106.15.

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IFX Gertrude
11-18-2022, 06:20 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.02%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20221118/analytics6376f0a02508f.jpg

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.02%, the S&P 500 fell 0.31%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.35%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Cisco Systems Inc, which gained 2.20 points or 4.96% to close at 46.59. Merck & Company Inc rose 2.38 points or 2.38% to close at 102.31. Apple Inc rose 1.93 points or 1.30% to close at 150.72.

The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 5.43 points or 3.50% to end the session at 149.69. The Walt Disney Company rose 2.66% or 2.50 points to close at 91.45 while American Express Company shed 1.27% or 1.93 points to close at 150. .64.

Among the S&P 500 index components gainers in today's trading were Bath & Body Works Inc., which rose 25.18% to 38.97, Gap Inc, which gained 5.56% to close at 12.71., as well as shares of Qorvo Inc, which rose 5.25% to close the session at 97.70.

The least gainers were West Pharmaceutical Services Inc, which shed 7.57% to close at 221.93. Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd shed 6.77% to end the session at 16.40. Paycom Soft quotes fell 5.73% to 318.34.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Ardelyx Inc, which rose 40.98% to hit 1.72, CytomX Therapeutics Inc, which gained 32.23% to close at 1.60, and shares of Cuentas Inc, which rose 28.00% to end the session at 0.32.

The least gainers were shares of Inotiv Inc, which fell 56.97% to close at 6.82. Shares of Golden Sun Education Group Ltd lost 46.28% and closed the session at 2.31. Quotes Singularity Future Technology Ltd fell in price by 45.93% to 1.13.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1996) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1109), and the quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,280 companies fell in price, 1,467 rose, and 258 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.75% to 23.93.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.70%, or 12.40, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery dropped 4.23%, or 3.62, to $81.97 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 3.08%, or 2.86, to $90.00 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.23% to 1.04, while USD/JPY rose 0.46% to hit 140.18.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.37% to 106.55.

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IFX Gertrude
11-21-2022, 08:15 AM
US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.59%

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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.59%, the S&P 500 rose 0.48% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.01%.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was the top performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading, up 14.69 points or 2.85% to close at 530.00. Quotes of Cisco Systems Inc rose by 1.20 points (2.58%), closing the session at 47.79. Merck & Company Inc rose 1.92 points or 1.88% to close at 104.23.

The least gainers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 1.65 points or 1.10% to end the session at 148.04. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 0.95% or 0.38 points to close at 39.75 while Chevron Corp was down 0.60% or 1.10 points to close at 182. .99.

Among the S&P 500 index components gainers today were Ross Stores Inc, which rose 9.86% to hit 107.59, Gap Inc, which gained 7.55% to close at 13.67, and shares of Lincoln National Corporation, which rose 4.37% to close the session at 37.73.

The least gainers were Live Nation Entertainment Inc, which shed 7.85% to close at 66.21. Shares of Fortinet Inc lost 3.66% to end the session at 52.16. Diamondback Energy Inc lost 3.44% to 156.22.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were AGBA Acquisition Ltd, which rose 50.67% to hit 6.78, Paxmedica Inc, which gained 37.42% to close at 2.13, and shares of Mercurity Fintech Holding Inc ADR, which rose by 32.91%, ending the session at around 1.05.

Shares of Kiora Pharmaceuticals Inc were the biggest losers, losing 35.85% to close at 3.83. Shares of Bit Origin Ltd lost 29.80% and ended the session at 0.15. Quotes of InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 28.13% to 2.76.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1884) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1211), while quotes of 138 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1985 companies rose in price, 1772 fell, and 237 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.38% to 12/23.

Gold futures for December delivery lost 0.66%, or 11.65, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for December delivery fell 1.73%, or 1.41, to $80.23 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery fell 2.17%, or 1.95, to $87.83 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.36% to 1.03, while USD/JPY rose 0.13% to hit 140.37.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.25% to 106.86.

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IFX Gertrude
11-23-2022, 12:13 AM
Cryptocurrency market continues to fall

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Bitcoin started Tuesday morning by moving sideways, as the coin traded at $16,134.

According to cryptocurrency price tracking website CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, bitcoin's highest price was $16,246, while its lowest was $15,599.

At the same time, on Monday, bearish sentiment prevailed in the cryptocurrency market and BTC updated weekly lows below $16,000.

Experts believe that bitcoin fell mainly due to the decline in U.S. stock indices on Monday. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.39%, the NASDAQ Composite fell by 1.09%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.13%.

Since the beginning of 2022 analysts increasingly began to emphasize the high level of correlation between the U.S. securities market and virtual assets amid tense expectations of both of the consequences of the geopolitical conflict in eastern Europe and the further steps of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Earlier, Arcane Research analysts already stated that bitcoin's correlation to tech stocks has climbed to highs not seen since July 2020.

In addition, economists of analytical platform TradingView said that the correlation of the cryptocurrency market with the U.S. stock market in the past quarter reached 70%.

Altcoin market
Ethereum, bitcoin's main competitor, also started Tuesday with sideways movement. The coin was trading at $1,128.

As for cryptocurrencies from the top 10 by capitalization, Polygon (+2.32%) had the best results, while Ethereum (-1.43%) had the worst.

According to last week's results, Polygon coin (-13.99%) topped the list of the top ten strongest digital assets.

According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of data on virtual assets, in the last 24 hours the Huobi Token (+11.13%) was in first place among the top 100 most capitalized digital assets in terms of growth, while the UNUS SED LEO (-13.91%) coin had the worst results.

According to the results of the past week, the digital asset NEAR Protocol (-21.46%) showed the worst results among the top hundred of the strongest digital assets, while Litecoin (+7.63%) showed the best results.

According to CoinGecko, as of Tuesday morning, the global cryptocurrency market cap failed to settle above the important key level of $850 billion and stands at $834.845 billion.

Since November 2021, when the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies exceeded the $3 trillion level, it has more than tripled.

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IFX Gertrude
11-23-2022, 05:52 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.18%

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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.18% to a 3-month high, the S&P 500 rose 1.36% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.36%.

The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components in today's trading was Intel Corporation, which gained 0.88 points or 3.04% to close at 29.82. Salesforce Inc rose 4.40 points or 3.04% to close at 149.25. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc rose 1.20 points or 2.96% to close at 41.79.

The least gainer was Walt Disney Company, which shed 1.37 points or 1.40% to end the session at 96.21. Amgen Inc was up 1.11 points (0.39%) to close at 287.05, while Boeing Co was down 0.44 points (0.25%) to close at 172.50. .

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Best Buy Co Inc, which rose 12.78% to 79.88, Agilent Technologies Inc, which gained 8.08% to close at 156.86. as well as shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 6.72% to close the session at 109.68.

The least gainers were Dollar Tree Inc, which shed 7.79% to close at 152.37. Shares of Rollins Inc lost 6.14% to end the session at 39.53. Quotes of Medtronic PLC decreased in price by 5.30% to 77.93.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Cosmos Holdings Inc, which rose 86.93% to hit 0.33, Palisade Bio Inc, which gained 81.08% to close at 4.02, and also shares of Motorsport Gaming Us LLC, which rose 51.11% to close the session at 6.80.

The least gainers were Eqonex Ltd shares, which lost 32.81% to close at 0.14. Shares of WiSA Technologies Inc lost 21.56% and ended the session at 0.20. Quotes of AGBA Acquisition Ltd decreased in price by 22.94% to 4.87.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2345) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (761), while quotes of 110 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2259 companies rose in price, 1542 fell, and 236 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 4.79% to 21.29, hitting a new 3-month low.

Gold futures for December delivery added 0.07%, or 1.15, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for January delivery rose 1.41%, or 1.13, to $81.17 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for January delivery rose 1.22%, or 1.07, to $88.52 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.62% to hit 1.03, while USD/JPY shed 0.65% to hit 141.20.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.63% to 107.05.

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IFX Gertrude
11-24-2022, 09:21 AM
Fed considers decelerating rate hike pace. Will US dollar slow down?

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The European currency managed to outperform the US dollar by the end of the week. Following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, USD significantly declined. Meanwhile, the euro managed to get a head start and use the situation to consolidate its positions.

On Thursday, November 24, the US dollar fell considerably against other major currencies, especially against the euro. The decline was caused by increased risk appetite in the markets, which followed the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for November. In this situation, the euro rallied strongly, trying to recoup its earlier losses. Early on Thursday, EUR/USD was trading near 1.0435, advancing from its previous level of 1.0395.

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On Wednesday, November 23, the Fed published the minutes of its November policy meeting, which indicated that the regulator plans to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in the near future. This year, the Fed increased its benchmark rate six times. Most analysts (76%) expect the Fed to raise its interest rate again in December to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% from the current 3.75%-4%. This rate hike is expected to be smaller than the previous ones.

As a result, the US currency has lost some of its gains. Disappointing macroeconomic data from the US also contributed to the drop of USD. The US dollar has come under strong bearish pressure after these reports. According to November data, the S&P Global Services PMI in the declined stronger than expected. At the same time business activity in the US service sector fell at an accelerated pace, with the S&P Global Services PMI dropping to 46.1 from 47.8 a month ago. The drop was attributed to weakening consumer demand and decreased volume of new orders, which hit the lowest level since May 2020.

Furthermore, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slid down below 50 points in November. Analysts recorded a significant drop in business activity in the US manufacturing sector, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropping to 47.6 points from the previous 50.4 points. Falling output in the US exacerbated the decline. "In this environment, inflationary pressures should continue to cool in the months ahead, potentially markedly, but the economy meanwhile continues to head deeper into a likely recession," Chris Williamson, lead economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said.

Fed policymakers are concerned about the weaker US labor market. The regulator considers the situation in the US labor market to be a key policy gauge, along with inflation, and uses it when deciding on its monetary policy. A decline in the US labor market is a signal to the Fed that it is time to reduce the pace of rate hikes. Over the past week, the number of jobless claims in the US increased to 240,000. This trend has persisted since the end of September 2022, analysts say.

The number of initial claims in the US hit the highest level since August 2022, well above the 225,000 claims forecasted earlier. At the same time the number of continuing claims rose to the highest point since March 2022 and stood at 1,551,000.

Analysts have noted that the US labor market has begun to reverse, which would give strong support to EUR/USD. Such a situation is favorable for the stock market, but detrimental for the US dollar, as it implies the Fed would soften its hawkish stance.

In the current situation the US dollar, which briefly retreated, took a pause, just like the Fed, which plans to reduce the pace of rate hikes. Analysts believe that USD will gather its strength and test its highs again in the near future. The US currency is likely to be successful in this scenario.

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IFX Gertrude
11-25-2022, 06:09 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY GDP, GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DUE

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Quarterly national accounts and consumer sentiment survey results from Germany are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Germany's statistical office Destatis is slated to issue detailed GDP data for the third quarter. According to preliminary estimate, the economy had expanded 0.3 percent sequentially.

In the meantime, the market research group GfK is set to release Germany's consumer sentiment survey results. The consumer sentiment index is forecast to rise to -39.6 in December from -41.9 in November.

At 2.30 am ET, employment data is due from Switzerland.

At 2.45 am ET, the French statistical office INSEE publishes consumer sentiment survey results. The consumer sentiment index is seen at 83 in November versus 82 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, October producer prices figures are due from Spain. Also, unemployment data is due from Hungary.

At 4.00 am ET, business and consumer sentiment survey results are due from Italy. The business confidence index is forecast to fall to 99.6 in November from 100.4 in October. Meanwhile, the consumer sentiment index is seen at 91.0 versus 90.1 a month ago.

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IFX Gertrude
11-28-2022, 06:02 AM
American stock indices are changing in different directions

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There are no statistical releases scheduled for Friday. In this case, the session will be shortened and will end at 21:00 GMT+2. In this regard, trading activity is likely to be lower than usual, experts say. On Thursday, the exchanges did not work because of the public holiday - Thanksgiving Day.

Meanwhile, a number of important indicators will be published in the near future, including revised data on changes in US GDP in the third quarter, as well as data on the state of the labor market in November. In addition, the country begins the season of active shopping before the holidays.

Dow Jones Industrial Average by 18:02 GMT+2 increased by 0.4% and reached 34333.97 points.

Among the components of the index, the top gainers were Home Depot Inc, up 1.8%, UnitedHealth Group up 1.4% and 3M Co. - by 1.2%.

The value of the Standard & Poor's 500 by this time increased by 0.06% - up to 4029.69 points.

At the same time, the Nasdaq Composite index fell by 0.39% since the market opened and amounted to 11241.63 points.

Stock quotes for retailers Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. decrease respectively by 0.2% and 0.8% at the beginning of trading.

Amazon.com Inc. price fell 1.1% on reports that employees at the online retailer's warehouses around the world, including the US, Germany and France, are planning protests on Friday demanding higher wages.

Shares of Ford Motor fell 0.3% on news that the company is recalling more than 634,000 SUVs worldwide due to malfunctions.

Tesla's value fell 1.2%. The company announced that it is recalling about 80,000 electric vehicles in China due to problems with software and seat belts.

In addition, Apple Inc. papers are getting cheaper. - by 1.6%, Nike Inc. - by 0.6%, Intel Corp. - by 0.5%.

At the same time, the share price of Chevron Corp. grows by 0.3%. According to media reports, the United States is preparing to grant this company a license to produce oil in Venezuela. Chevron will regain partial control of oil production in Venezuelan fields, in which the company has retained stakes through joint ventures with state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA.

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IFX Gertrude
11-29-2022, 11:21 AM
GOLD REBOUNDS ON DOLLAR PULLBACK

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Gold rebounded on Tuesday, after having fallen around 1 percent in the previous session in the wake of hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

Spot gold climbed 0.8 percent to $1,754.76 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were up 0.8 percent at $1,753.40.

The dollar fell against its rivals today as optimism surrounding China's reopening offset rate-hike fears.

U.S. Treasury yields pulled back despite U.S. Fed officials James Bullard and John Williams reiterating their hawkish stance on further rate hikes.

Euro zone government bond yields fell broadly after inflation in Spain and in Germany's most populous state came in below expectations.

Financial markets ae excited about some sort of reopening in China, apparently to quell public anger against COVID-19 curbs.

China reported a slight dip in new COVID-19 infections and also stepped-up support for the country's property sector, further aiding risk sentiment.

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IFX Gertrude
11-30-2022, 05:40 AM
CHINA MANUFACTURING PMI FALLS TO 48.0 IN NOVEMBER - NBS

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The manufacturing sector in China continued to contract in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 48.0. That missed expectations for a reading of 49.0 and was down from 49.2 in October. It also moved further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. The report also showed that the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 46.7 from 48.7 in October, while the general PMI dropped to 47.1 from 49.0.

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IFX Gertrude
12-01-2022, 02:57 AM
JAPAN MANUFACTURING SECTOR CLIPS INTO CONTRACTION - JIBUN

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The manufacturing sector in Japan fell into contraction in November, the latest survey from Jibun Bank showed on Thursday with a manufacturing PMI core of 49.0.

That's down from 50.7 in October, and it moves beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Contributing to the sub-50.0 PMI reading was a sharper contraction in output levels at Japanese manufacturing companies. The downturn was the strongest since August 2020 and reportedly resulted from weak customer demand. Reflective of the trends in output was a further contraction in order books. The decline was the fastest since August 2020 amid reports of cooling market demand and ongoing price pressures.

Foreign demand also declined and at a pace that was the sharpest since July 2020. Panel members suggested that overseas clients were looking to downwardly adjust inventory levels.

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IFX Gertrude
12-02-2022, 05:45 AM
AUSTRALIA HOME LOANS DROP 2.9% IN OCTOBER

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The value of owner-occupied home loans issued in Australia in October was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month, coming in at A$17.16 billion.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 4.5 percent following the 9.3 percent drop in September.

On a yearly basis, home loans stumbled 17.2 percent.

Investment lending fell 2.2 percent on month and 17/0 percent on year to A$8.62 billion.

Overall lending shed 2.7 percent on month and 17.1 percent on year to A$25.79 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
12-05-2022, 06:08 AM
SINGAPORE PRIVATE SECTOR SLOWS IN NOVEMBER - S&P GLOBAL

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The private sector in Singapore continued to expand in November, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from S&P Global revealed on Monday with a PMI score of 56.2.

That's down from 57.7 in October, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Private sector activity continued to expand at a robust pace midway into the final quarter of 2022 but saw the rate of expansion moderate from October's high. Survey respondents remarked that virus-related disruptions underpinned the slowdown. Indeed, lead times lengthened at a substantial rate in November amid reports of COVID-19 related delays and manpower constraints.

Overall demand, including external demand, meanwhile remained a key driver behind the growth in activity but likewise saw the rate of expansion slow in November.

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IFX Gertrude
12-06-2022, 05:44 AM
AUSTRALIA CENTRAL BANK LIFTS RATE BY 25 BPS

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Australia's central bank raised its key interest rate by a quarter point again on Tuesday, as widely expected.

The policy board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, headed by Governor Philip Lowe, decided to lift the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.10 percent.

The board reiterated that it expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead, but it is not on a pre-set course.

The size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by the incoming data and the Board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labor market, the bank repeated.

Policymakers observed that that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of the increase in interest rates is yet to be felt in mortgage payments. Household spending is likely to slow although the timing and extent of this slowdown is uncertain.

"The path to achieving the needed decline in inflation and achieving a soft landing for the economy remains a narrow one," Governor Philip Lowe said.

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IFX Gertrude
12-07-2022, 05:35 AM
AUSTRALIA GDP CLIMBS 5.9% ON YEAR IN Q3

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Australia's gross domestic product expanded 5.9 percent on year in the third quarter of 2022, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 6.2 percent and up from 3.6 percent in the three months prior.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP picked up 0.6 percent - again missing forecasts and slowing from 0.9 percent in the previous three months.

Capital expenditure was down 0.2 percent on quarter after rising 0.2 percent in Q2, while the GDP deflator added 0.2 percent on quarter after jumping 3.3 percent in the second quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
12-08-2022, 08:54 AM
The US stock market closed mixed, Dow Jones did not rise in price

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At the close of the day on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones did not rise in price, the S&P 500 index fell 0.19%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.51%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was 3M Company, which gained 1.77 points (1.42%) to close at 126.35. Merck & Company Inc rose 1.16 points or 1.06% to close at 110.09. Amgen Inc rose 0.87% or 2.47 points to close at 285.76.

The biggest losers were Salesforce Inc, which shed 2.79 points or 2.09% to end the session at 130.48. Apple Inc. shares rose 1.97 points (1.38%) to close at 140.94, while Boeing Co was down 1.93 points (1.08%) to close at 176.50. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were State Street Corp, which rose 8.19% to hit 80.45, Campbell Soup Company, which gained 6.02% to close at 56.18, and also shares of Bank of New York Mellon, which rose 4.13% to close the session at 44.61.

The biggest losers were M&T Bank Corp, which shed 7.72% to close at 147.97. Shares of Brown Forman lost 7.30% to end the session at 68.27. Expedia Inc (NASDAQ:EXPE) dropped 6.32% to 90.79.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Prometheus Biosciences Inc, which rose 165.67% to hit 95.80, Transcode Therapeutics Inc, which gained 133.44% to close at 0.98, and also shares of Vor Biopharma Inc, which rose 41.86% to end the session at 6.10.

The biggest losers were Ensysce Biosciences Inc, which shed 53.36% to close at 1.04. Shares of Versus Systems Inc lost 46.98% and ended the session at 0.79. Bruush Oral Care Inc Unit fell 46.95% to 0.50.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1608) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1466), while quotes of 134 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,196 companies fell in price, 1,487 rose, and 198 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 2.30% to 22.68.

Gold futures for February delivery added 0.91%, or 16.30, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI futures for January delivery fell 2.40%, or 1.78, to $72.47 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for February delivery fell 2.28%, or 1.81, to $77.54 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.38% to 1.05, while USD/JPY fell 0.38% to hit 136.52.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.40% to 105.12.

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IFX Gertrude
12-09-2022, 09:05 AM
CHINA INFLATION CLIMBS 1.6% ON YEAR IN NOVEMBER

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Consumer prices in China were up 1.6 percent on year in November, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

That was in line with expectations and down from 2.1 percent in October.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2 percent - again matching forecasts following the 0.1 percent increase in the previous month.

The bureau also said that producer prices dropped 1.3 percent on year versus expectations for a decline of 1.4 percent after slipping 1.3 percent a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
12-12-2022, 06:09 AM
JAPAN LARGE MANUFACTURERS' SENTIMENT DETERIORATES SHARPLY IN Q4

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Japan large manufacturers' sentiment deteriorated notably in the fourth quarter, the business outlook survey published by the Ministry of Finance showed on Monday. At -3.6, the business survey index of large manufacturers turned negative in the fourth quarter, down from +1.7 in the third quarter. The index is forecast to rise to +1.4 in the next quarter. Meanwhile, for large non-manufacturers, the business survey index rose to 2.7 from -0.2 in the third quarter. But the score is forecast to weaken to 1.9 in the first quarter of 2023. Consequently, the overall BSI for overall large industries stood at +0.7 versus +0.4 a quarter ago. For the coming quarter, the score is seen at 1.8.

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IFX Gertrude
12-13-2022, 08:57 AM
FRANCE Q3 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT RISES MORE THAN ESTIMATED

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France's payroll employment increased slightly more than initially estimated in the third quarter, latest data from the statistical office INSEE showed on Tuesday.

Payroll employment, which includes the private and public sectors, fell 0.4 percent or 103,200 from the previous quarter. Employment had increased 0.3 percent in the second quarter and 0.4 percent in the first quarter.

In the flash report, the rate of increase for the third quarter was 0.3 percent. Private sector payroll employment climbed 0.6 percent, or 119,100 jobs, in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, revised from a 0.4 percent rise initially estimated on November 8. On the other hand, employment in the public sector showed a decrease of 0.3 percent, or by 15,900 jobs.

Among sectors, industrial employment gained 0.5 percent, and job creation in construction grew 0.2 percent.

Data showed that jobs in market services rose 0.8 percent, while those in non-market services dropped 0.2 percent. The agricultural sector also witnessed a 1.0 percent decrease in jobs.

After two consecutive quarters of decrease, temporary employment gained 1.9 percent or 18,700. In the flash estimate, the rate of increase was 2.3 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
12-14-2022, 11:00 AM
JAPAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 3.2%

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Japan's industrial production declined more than initially estimated in October, revised data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Wednesday.

Industrial production decreased by a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent monthly in October, which was worse than the 2.6 percent fall estimated initially.

Shipments fell by 1.7 percent monthly in October and the inventories declined by 0.5 percent. The inventory ratio decreased 4.5 percent.

On a yearly basis, industrial production rose 3.0 percent in September. According to the initial estimate, the rate of growth was 3.7 percent.

The capacity utilization grew 2.2 percent month-on-month in October and rose 6.6 percent from a year ago.

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IFX Gertrude
12-15-2022, 05:56 AM
CHINA RETAIL SALES SINK 5.9% ON YEAR IN NOVEMBER

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The total value of retail sales in China was down 5.9 percent on year in November, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - shy of expectations for a decline of 3.7 percent following the 0.5 percent drop in October.

The bureau also said that fixed asset investment rose an annual 5.3 percent - also missing forecasts for 5.6 percent and down from 5.8 percent in the previous month.

Industrial production added 2.2 percent on year, missing expectations for an increase of 3.6 percent and down from 5.0 percent a month earlier.

The November jobless rate crept up to 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent in October, while the house price index was steady at an annual -1.6 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
12-16-2022, 07:32 AM
SINGAPORE EXPORTS FALL MORE THAN FORECAST ON WEAKER DEMAND

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Singapore's non-oil exports declined for the second straight month in November, and at a faster-than-expected pace, amid falls in both shipments of electronic and non-electronic goods, data from Enterprise Singapore showed on Friday.

Non-oil domestic exports decreased 14.6 percent year-on-year in November, which was worse than the 6.1 percent fall in October. Economists had expected a 7.4 percent drop.

Electronic exports plunged 20.2 percent, while non-electronic NODX dropped 12.8 percent.

On a monthly basis, the NODX declined 9.2 percent in November, after a 4.2 percent fall in the previous month. That was also above the 3.0 percent decrease expected by economists.

In November, non-oil domestic exports to the top 10 markets as a whole decreased, primarily as a result of China, Hong Kong, and Malaysia, while those to the EU 27, Japan, and the US increased.

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IFX Gertrude
12-19-2022, 07:44 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Business sentiment data from Germany is the top economic news due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is set to publish Germany's producer price data for November. Producer price inflation is expected to ease to 30.6 percent from 34.5 percent in October. In the meantime, foreign trade figures are due from Switzerland.

At 4.00 am ET, the ifo Institute is scheduled to issue Germany's business confidence survey results for December. The sentiment index is forecast to rise to 87.4 from 86.3 in the previous month.

Also, the European Central Bank releases euro area current account data for October. The trade deficit totaled seasonally adjusted EUR 8.1 billion in September.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat publishes euro area construction output for October and labor cost figures for the third quarter.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Industrial Trends survey results for December. The order book balance is forecast to fall to -9 from -5 in November.

At 8.00 am ET, Hungary's central bank announces its interest rate decision. The bank is widely forecast to hold its key deposit rate at 12.5 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
12-20-2022, 04:28 AM
BANK OF JAPAN EXPANDS YIELD TARGET BAND

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The Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged and expanded its 10-year Japanese government bond yield target band on Tuesday.

The policy board of the BoJ unanimously decided to maintain a negative interest rate of -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the central bank.

The bank will also continue to purchase a necessary amount of JGBs without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent.

However, they decided to expand the range of 10-year JGB yield fluctuations to around plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from around plus and minus 0.25 percentage points. The bank said it is willing to take additional easing measures, if needed.

The bank also expects short and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their current or lower levels.

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IFX Gertrude
12-21-2022, 05:55 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS NEWS PREVIEW: UK PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE DATA DUE

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Public sector finances from the UK and consumer sentiment survey results from Germany are the top economic news due on Wednesday.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK public sector finances data for November. Excluding banks, the budget deficit is seen falling to GBP 13 billion from GBP 13.5 billion in October.

In the meantime, the market research group GfK publishes consumer sentiment survey results. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index is forecast to fall to -38 in January from -40.2 in December.

At 3.00 am ET, the National Institute of Economic Research is slated to issue Sweden economic tendency survey results.

At 4.00 am ET, retail sales figures are due from Poland. Sales are forecast to grow 0.3 percent annually in November, slower than the 0.7 percent rise in October.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry publishes Distributive Trades survey results. The retail sales balance is forecast to fall to -23 percent in December from -19 percent in November.

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IFX Gertrude
12-22-2022, 06:00 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS NEWS PREVIEW: UK REVISED GDP DATA DUE

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Quarterly national accounts data from the UK is the top economic news due on Thursday.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK final GDP data for the third quarter. The preliminary estimates showed that the economy contracted 0.2 percent sequentially, offsetting the 0.2 percent increase a quarter ago. The statistical office is set to confirm the preliminary estimate.

In the meantime, Statistics Sweden is set to publish producer prices and retail sales for November. Sales had decreased 1.3 percent on month in October.

At 3.00 am ET, final foreign trade data is due from Hungary.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat is scheduled to issue industrial turnover data for October. Sales had declined 1.2 percent on month in September.

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IFX Gertrude
12-23-2022, 08:00 AM
SINGAPORE INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT CONTRACTS FURTHER

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Singapore's industrial production declined for the second straight month in November, and at a faster-than-expected pace, data from the Economic Development Board revealed on Friday.

Industrial production dropped 3.2 percent year-on-year in November, faster than the 0.9 percent fall in October. Economists had expected a fall of 1.1 percent.

Excluding biomedical manufacturing, industrial production decreased 4.8 percent annually in November, reversing a 2.2 percent gain in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, industrial production decreased 1.2 percent in November, reversing a 0.6 percent increase in the prior month.

Among major clusters, electronics output plunged 12.4 percent in November, and the chemical cluster logged a decline in output of 11.3 percent.

Meanwhile, transport engineering output advanced 18.8 percent yearly in November, and that of general manufacturing also showed a double-digit growth of 10.3 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
12-26-2022, 05:40 AM
US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.53%

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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.53%, the S&P 500 rose 0.59%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.21%.

Chevron Corp was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 5.32 points or 3.09% to close at 177.40. The Walt Disney Company rose 1.34 points or 1.55% to close at 88.01. The Travelers Companies Inc rose 2.28 points or 1.22% to close at 189.48.

The least gainers were 3M Company, which shed 1.45 points or 1.19% to end the session at 120.14. Amgen Inc was up 1.34 points (0.51%) to close at 263.92, while Apple Inc was down 0.37 points (0.28%) to close at 131.86. .

The leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were APA Corporation, which rose 5.73% to 47.25, CarMax Inc, which gained 5.17% to close at 60.16, and Hess Corporation, which rose 4.72% to end the session at 141.68.

The least gainers were Moderna Inc, which shed 4.44% to close at 199.08. Shares of Illumina Inc lost 2.32% to end the session at 191.24. Quotes of DexCom Inc decreased in price by 1.97% to 111.44.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Expion360 Inc, which rose 139.19% to hit 2.35, Akso Health Group DRC, which gained 1.57% to close at 0.40, and also shares of Elys Game Technology Corp, which rose 47.09% to end the session at 0.17.

The least gainers were Applied Molecular Transport Inc, which shed 57.77% to close at 0.44. E-Home Household Service Holdings Ltd lost 52.59% to end the session at 0.64. Quotes Mingzhu Logistics Holdings Ltd fell in price by 50.84% to 1.75.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2099) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (959), while quotes of 96 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1909 companies rose in price, 1754 fell, and 216 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 5.01% to 20.87.

Gold futures for February delivery added 0.57%, or 10.20, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 2.80%, or 2.17, to $79.66 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for February delivery rose 4.40%, or 3.56, to $84.54 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.23% to 1.06, while USD/JPY was up 0.38% to hit 132.84.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.12% to 104.01.

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IFX Gertrude
12-28-2022, 05:27 AM
US stock market closed mixed, Dow Jones up 0.11%

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At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.11%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.41% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.38%.

The gainers among Dow Jones index components in today's trading were shares of Verizon Communications Inc. which gained 0.84p (2.19%) to close at 39.25. Caterpillar Inc. gained 3.27p (1.36%) to close at 243.14. Chevron Corp. gained 2.23 pct (1.26%) to close at 179.63.

Shares of the Walt Disney Company were the least gainers, with their price dropping 1.64p (1.86%), ending the session at 86.37. Shares of Apple Inc soared 1.83p (1.39%) to close at 130.03, Goldman Sachs Group Inc dropped 3.54p (1.02%) and closed the session at 341.97.

The top gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were shares of Wynn Resorts Limited, which gained 4.47% to 84.33, VF Corporation, which gained 4.18% to close at 27.16, and Las Vegas Sands Corp, which gained 4.17% to close the session at 48.46.

Shares of Tesla Inc were the least gainers, down 11.41% to close at 109.10. Moderna Inc shares lost 9.50% and closed the session at 180.17. NVIDIA Corporation shares were down 7.14% to 141.21.

The top gainers among NASDAQ Composite index components in today's trading were shares of Elys Game Technology Corp, which gained 111.91% to 0.37, Lightjump Acquisition Corp, which gained 100.00% to close at 19.00, and shares of Quotient Ltd, which gained 94.74% to close the session at 0.37.

The least gainers were shares of Tuesday Morning Corp, which fell 46.12% to close at 0.83. Shares of Mingzhu Logistics Holdings Ltd lost 44.57% and closed the session at 0.97. Lion Group Holding Ltd. was down 36.45 percent to 0.68.

On NYSE the number of securities, which fell in price (1697) exceeded the number of securities, which closed on the plus side (1401). On NASDAQ, 2,517 stocks were down, 1,251 were up, and 139 remained flat.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 3.74% to 21.65.

Gold futures for February delivery added 0.98%, or 17.65, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 0.16%, or 0.13, to $79.69 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 0.43%, or 0.36, to $84.86 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair was unchanged 0.05% to 1.06, while USD/JPY was up 0.49% to hit 133.51.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.12% to 103.89.

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IFX Gertrude
12-29-2022, 03:57 AM
SOUTH KOREA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CLIMBS 0.4% IN NOVEMBER

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/industrial_production/5.jpg

Industrial output in South Korea rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on month in November, Statistics Korea said on Thursday.

That beat forecasts for a decline of 0.8 percent following the 3.5 percent contraction in October.

On a yearly basis, industrial output sank 3.7 percent - also topping expectations for a drop of 4.0 percent following the downwardly revised 1.2 percent contraction in the previous month (originally -1.1 percent).

The index of all industry production was up 0.1 percent on month and 0.6 percent on year in November.

The Manufacturing Production Index added 0.5 percent on month but fell 3.8 percent on year. The Manufacturing Shipment Index lost 2.4 percent on month and 4.2 percent on year. The Manufacturing Inventory Index increased by 1.4 percent on month and 6.1 percent on year.

The Production Capacity Index was flat on month and down 0.8 percent on year. The Index of Capacity Utilization Rate rose 0.9 percent on month but shed 2.5 percent on year. The Manufacturing Average Capacity Utilization Rate was 73.1 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

The Index of Services fell 0.6 percent on month but climbed 2.6 percent on year. The Retail Sales Index sank 1.8 percent on month and 2.2 percent on year.

The Equipment Investment Index added 1.0 percent on month and 11.0 percent on year. The Domestic Machinery Shipment Index surged an annual 10.9 percent. The value of Domestic Machinery Orders Received soared 15.3 percent on year. The value of Construction Completed at constant prices increased by 1.4 percent on month and 10.2 percent on year.

The value of Construction Orders Received at current prices tumbled 11.1 percent on year.

The Composite Coincident Index eased 0.5 percent on month. The Cyclical Component of Composite Coincident Index, which reflects current economic situations, fell 0.7 points from the previous month.

The Composite Leading Index rose 0.1 percent on month. The Cyclical Component of Composite Leading Index, which predicts the turning point in business cycle, dipped 0.2 points from the previous month.

Also on Thursday, Statistics Korea said that the value of retail sales in South Korea was down a seasonally adjusted 1.8 percent on month in November.

That missed expectations for a decline of 1.0 percent following the 0.2 percent contraction in October.

On a yearly basis, retail sales were down 2.2 percent - again missing forecasts for a decline of 1.5 percent following the 0.7 percent drop in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
12-30-2022, 08:37 AM
SOUTH KOREA INFLATION STEADY AT 5.0%

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South Korea's consumer price inflation remained unchanged in December, figures from Statistics Korea showed on Friday.

Consumer prices rose 5.0 percent year-on-year in December, same as seen in November. This was in line with economists' expectations.

Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices rose 4.1 percent annually in December, after a 4.3 percent increase in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.2 percent in December, following a 0.1 percent drop in November.

Compared to the previous month, the core CPI remained unchanged at 0.3 percent in December.

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IFX Gertrude
01-04-2023, 06:02 AM
USD/JPY: the dollar has lost control

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230103/analytics63b3d86c9392d.jpg

At the beginning of the new year, the USD/JPY pair is still in a bearish trend. Every day the quote is going deeper to the south, hitting one after another multi-month lows. However, analysts believe it is still far from the bottom. This morning, the dollar-yen asset showed another resounding drop. The major lost about 160 points in just a couple of hours, bringing it to its lowest level since June at 129.79. The sharp drop to the 6-month low was due to growing expectations regarding the possible pivot of the Bank of Japan.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230103/analytics63b3db14cf2e5.jpg

Another surge of speculation on the subject came after Japan's Nikkei reported Saturday that the BOJ might revise its inflation forecast upward in January.

If the BOJ does indeed raise its consumer price growth forecast for 2023, it would further bolster traders' view that the central bank may soon be on a hawkish track.

Recall that the BOJ is the only major central bank in the world that still maintains an ultra-loose policy and keeps interest rates ultra-low.

In contrast to the BOJ, last year the US Federal Reserve took a sharp course towards tightening. This led to strong monetary divergence between the central banks, which weighed heavily on the JPY.

In October 2022, the JPY fell against the dollar to a 32-year low of 151.95. However, since then the Japanese currency has strengthened against its U.S. counterpart by more than 16%.

In November, USD/JPY was down 8.5% as traders had concerns about the slowdown in interest rate hikes in the US.

Last month, the yen gained more than 5% against the dollar. The main driver of its growth was the BOJ's surprise tweak to its bond yield control.

The BOJ's decision to allow 10-year bond yields to fluctuate by plus or minus 0.5 percentage points of its 0% target level was acknowledged by the market as the central bank's first step towards its monetary-policy normalization.

As we can see, now the fundamental picture, which favored the dollar's growth in 2022, is starting to change gradually in favor of the yen.

The Fed has already slowed the pace of its tightening, when it delivered a smaller rate hike of just 50 bps in December following four straight 75 bps hikes. At this stage, most traders tend to further reduce the degree of aggressiveness.

Meanwhile, the market is expecting hawkish actions from the BOJ. Many investors believe that BOJ will abandon its soft course in the second quarter of the year, after the current head of the central bank Haruhiko Kuroda will leave his post in April.

"I would expect an end to negative rates by April. This further removes obstacles for the yen to strengthen more," said Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management.

According to the expert, at the moment the Japanese currency is significantly undervalued compared to its fair levels, which indicates its high growth potential.

Recall that recently former Japanese Vice-Minister of Finance Eisuke Sakakibara, known as "Mr. Yen", said in an interview last month that the yen may appreciate to 120 per dollar this year.

Generali Investments and Jupiter Investment Management have also flagged the same level as the next potential bearish target.

As for the near-term outlook, this week the quote is likely to keep its downtrend, unless, of course, the dollar bulls get some super-powerful trigger.

One of the catalysts for the pair may be tomorrow's release of the minutes of the Fed's December meeting. Traders hope the FOMC minutes will shed light on the future trajectory of interest rates in the US.

If the market views the Fed's rhetoric as hawkish, it will help the dollar recover its recent losses against the yen. Otherwise, the USD/JPY pair risks to collapse even more.

Also, this week investors will focus on the US jobs report, which will be released on Friday.

Positive data might push up the dollar in all directions, including the USD/JPY pair, whereas negative data will push the greenback even higher, which will raise the demand for the yen.

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IFX Gertrude
01-05-2023, 02:13 AM
OIL FUTURES SETTLE SHARPLY LOWER ON RECESSION FEARS

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/oil/12.jpg

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, extending recent losses, as worries about energy demand amid rising fears of a global recession continued to weigh on the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for February ended down $4.09 or about 5.3% at $72.84 a barrel, the lowest settlement in more than three weeks.

Brent crude futures were down $4.10 or almost 5% at $78.00 a barrel a little while ago.

China's decision to increase export of refined oil products has fueled concerns of weaker demand in the country.

Meanwhile, Japan has announced that it would tighten borders controls for travelers from China, in response to a surge in Covid cases among visitors.

Traders also took note of comments from former New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley, who said a recession in the U.S. is likely because of what the Fed has to do.

Traders are looking ahead to weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The API's report is due later today, while EIA's inventory data will be out Thursday morning.

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IFX Gertrude
01-05-2023, 06:23 AM
CHINA SERVICES ACTIVITY LOGS FOURTH CONSECUTIVE CONTRACTION

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/share/5.jpg

China's service sector shrank for the fourth consecutive month in December as the ongoing measures to contain the Covid-19 disrupted operations and hampered demand.

At 48.0, the Caixin services Purchasing Managers' Index rose from a six-month low of 46.7 in November, survey results from S&P Global showed Thursday. But a reading below 50.0 suggests the sector remains in the contraction zone.

The Covid-19 containment measures, including temporary business closures dampened production.

Further, due to pandemic related restrictions, outstanding business increased for the fifth consecutive month as firms were unable to work through backlogs of work.

Cost reduction policies together with voluntary leavers drove another fall in service sector employment. The pace of job shedding was quicker than seen on average in 2022.

On the price front, the survey showed that input cost inflation slowed to a six-month low. Consequently, firms raised their own charges at the softest pace since August. Another reason for the easing in output price inflation was stiff competition.

Optimism among service providers was the strongest since July 2021. Companies that foresee higher output expect the pandemic situation to improve, restrictions to ease, and operations and demand to recover.

The overall private sector that combines manufacturing and services shrank for the fourth straight month in December. But the rate of contraction eased with softer falls in output across manufacturing and services.

The composite output index picked up to 48.3 in December from 47.0 in November.

Infections are expected to explode in the short run, which will disrupt production and everyday life, Wang Zhe, a senior economist at Caixin Insight Group said. "How to effectively coordinate Covid controls with economic and social development has once again become a crucial question."

In order to prop up domestic consumption, various policies are needed that work in tandem with stabilizing the job market and effectively increasing the disposable incomes of residents, said Zhe.

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IFX Gertrude
01-06-2023, 05:42 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY FACTORY ORDERS, RETAIL SALES DATA DUE

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/obwii_obzor_rinok/5.jpg

Factory orders and retail sales from Germany and flash consumer prices, retail sales and economic confidence from the euro area are the top economic news due on Friday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to release Germany's manufacturing orders and retail sales figures for November. Economists forecast factory orders to fall 0.5 percent on month, reversing a 0.8 percent rise in October. Similarly, retail sales are seen rising 1.0 percent after falling 2.8 percent a month ago. In the meantime, UK Halifax house price data is due for December. Also, industrial output data is due from Statistics Norway.

At 2.45 am ET, France's Insee publishes consumer spending data for November. Economists forecast consumer spending to grow 1.0 percent month-on-month, in contrast to the 2.8 percent fall in October. At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is set to issue industrial and construction output and foreign trade reports.

At 4.30 am ET, UK S&P/CIPS construction Purchasing Managers' survey results are due. The construction index is expected to fall to 49.6 in December from 50.4 in the prior month.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurozone flash inflation, retail sales and economic confidence are due. Inflation is seen easing to 9.7 percent in December from 10.1 percent in November. Economists expect retail sales to grow 0.5 percent on month, reversing a 1.8 percent fall in October.

The euro area economic confidence index is seen at 94.7 in December versus 93.7 a month ago.

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IFX Gertrude
01-09-2023, 05:28 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DATA DUE

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/obwii_obzor_rinok/6.jpg

Industrial production from Germany and unemployment from the euro area are the top economic news due on Monday.

At 1.45 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is scheduled to issue Swiss unemployment data for December. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 2.1 percent from 2.0 percent in November.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is set to publish Germany industrial production for November. Economists forecast industrial output to grow marginally by 0.1 percent from October, when output was down 0.1 percent.

At 2.45 am ET, foreign trade and current account figures are due. The trade deficit is seen narrowing to EUR 11.3 billion in November from EUR 12.2 billion in October.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat publishes unemployment data for November. Economists expect the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 7.8 percent.

Half an hour later, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence survey results are due. The investor sentiment index is forecast to rise to -18.0 in January from -21.0 in December.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to issue euro area unemployment for November. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 6.5 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
01-10-2023, 04:21 AM
US stock market closed mixed, Dow Jones down 0.34%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230110/analytics63bccc0c06a46.jpg

On Thursday this week, investors will be waiting for the publication of data on consumer prices in the US. Analysts believe that annual inflation in the country slowed down to 6.5% in December from 7.1% per annum recorded in November.

The statistics may give traders a hint as to what to do next with the US Federal Reserve, whose next two-day meeting will take place on January 31 and February 1. About 77% of analysts expect the regulator's discount rate to increase by 25 basis points to 4.5-4.75%.

In addition, as early as this Friday, the largest US banks will report on their financial results for the previous year.

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.08%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.63%.

The leading performer among the Dow Jones index components today was Salesforce Inc, which gained 6.59 points or 4.69% to close at 147.10. Quotes of Intel Corporation rose by 0.58 points (2.02%), closing trading at 29.31. Goldman Sachs Group Inc rose 4.92 points or 1.41% to close at 353.00.

The least gainers were Merck & Company Inc, which shed 4.46 points or 3.88% to end the session at 110.38. Johnson & Johnson rose 2.59% or 4.67 points to close at 175.58 while The Travelers Companies Inc shed 2.45% or 4.75 points to close at 189.12.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 5.93% to 119.77, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd, which gained 5.90% to close at 13.81. as well as shares of NVIDIA Corporation, which rose 5.18% to close the session at 156.28.

The least gainers were Baxter International Inc, which shed 7.74% to close at 44.70. Shares of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc shed 7.69% to end the session at 680.49. Quotes of Northrop Grumman Corporation decreased in price by 4.99% to 495.41.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were CinCor Pharma Inc, which rose 143.97% to 28.74, Amryt Pharma Holdings Ltd, which gained 107.29% to close at 14.51. as well as Albireo Pharma Inc, which rose 92.16% to end the session at 43.85.

The least gainers were shares of Calithera Biosciences Inc, which shed 81.77% to close at 0.66. Shares of Peak Bio Inc shed 27.27% to end the session at 2.56. Quotes of Cerus Corporation decreased in price by 28.04% to 2.72.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1868) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1202), while quotes of 102 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2192 companies rose in price, 1561 fell, and 172 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 3.98% to 21.97.

Gold futures for February delivery added 0.33%, or 6.10, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude futures for February delivery rose 1.42%, or 1.05, to $74.82 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 1.46%, or 1.15, to $79.72 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.82% to 1.07, while USD/JPY shed 0.19% to hit 131.82.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.68% to 102.94.

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IFX Gertrude
01-11-2023, 06:33 AM
JAPAN LEADING INDEX AT 23-MONTH LOW

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/japan/3.jpg

Japan's leading index decreased in November to the lowest level in nearly two years, preliminary figures of a survey by the Cabinet Office showed on Wednesday.

The leading index, which measures future economic activity, dropped to 97.6 in November from 98.6 in the previous month.

Further, this was the lowest score since December 2020, when it was 96.5.

The coincident index, which measures the current economic situation, also weakened to a 6-month low of 99.1 in November from 99.6 in the previous month.

At the same time, the lagging index improved to 100.9 in November from 99.2 in the preceding month.

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IFX Gertrude
01-12-2023, 04:47 AM
CHINA CONSUMER PRICES UNCHANGED IN DECEMBER

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/china/2.jpg

Consumer prices in China were flat on month in December, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That beat expectations for a decline of 0.1 percent following the 0.2 percent drop in November.

On a yearly basis, inflation rose 1.8 percent - in line with expectations and up from 1.6 percent in the previous month.

The bureau also said that producer prices sank 0.7 percent on year versus expectations for a fall 0.1 percent after slipping 1.3 percent a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
01-13-2023, 10:50 AM
US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.64%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230113/analytics63c0c5aae01ed.jpg

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.64% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index rose 0.34%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.64%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Walt Disney Company, which gained 3.48 points or 3.61% to close at 99.81. Salesforce Inc rose 4.70 points or 3.24% to close at 149.60. Boeing Co rose 6.29 points or 3.02% to close at 214.32.

Shares of Coca-Cola Co were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 0.80 points (1.29%), ending the session at 61.21. Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc was up 1.24% or 0.46 points to close at 36.66, while Walmart Inc was down 0.90% or 1.32 points to close at 144. .81.

The top gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were American Airlines Group, which gained 9.71% to 16.83, United Airlines Holdings Inc, which gained 7.52% to close at 51.30, and Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp Class A shares, which gained 5.85% to close the session at 65.10.

The least gainers were Charles River Laboratories, which shed 5.95% to close at 232.25. Bio-Techne Corp lost 5.14% to end the session at 82.17. Quotes of Illumina Inc decreased in price by 5.05% to 193.75.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Arrival Vault USA Inc, which rose 100.00% to hit 0.54, Akerna Corp, which gained 66.67% to close at 1.65, and also shares of Moxian Inc, which rose by 73.32%, ending the session at around 1.04.

The leading gainers were Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 76.46% to close at 2.54. Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc lost 35.32% to end the session at 6.52. Quotes of Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 25.30% to 0.90.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2353) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (733), while quotes of 91 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2633 companies rose in price, 1063 fell, and 181 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 10.72% to 18.83, hitting a new 6-month low.

Gold futures for February delivery added 1.17%, or 22.05, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 1.20%, or 0.93, to $78.34 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 1.50%, or 1.24, to $83.91 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.91% to 1.09, while USD/JPY shed 2.43% to hit 129.24.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.94% to 101.96.

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IFX Gertrude
01-16-2023, 05:34 AM
US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.33%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230116/analytics63c4b46431d32.jpg

Also on Friday, the largest US banks published their financial results for the fourth quarter and all of last year. The net profit of all four banking giants decreased in 2022. In this regard, shares of Wells Fargo are depreciating by 3.8%, Bank of America - by 2.8%, JP Morgan - by 1.3%, Citigroup - by 0.8%.

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.33% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index rose 0.40%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 0.71%.

The leading performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was JPMorgan Chase & Co, which gained 3.52 points or 2.52% to close at 143.01. Quotes of Caterpillar Inc rose by 3.39 points (1.33%), closing the session at 258.46. Apple Inc rose 1.33 points or 1.00% to close at 134.74.

The least gainers were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH), which shed 6.10 points or 1.23% to end the session at 489.57. Shares of Intel Corporation rose 0.18 points (0.59%) to close at 30.11, while Walt Disney Company shed 0.41 points (0.41%) to close at 99. 40.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Illumina Inc, which rose 3.80% to 201.11, Wells Fargo & Company, which gained 3.25% to close at 44.22, and also shares of Stanley Black & Decker Inc, which rose 3.06% to end the session at 88.91.

The least gainers were Northrop Grumman Corporation, which shed 5.44% to close at 461.43. Shares of Ford Motor Company lost 5.29% to end the session at 12.72. Quotes of General Motors Company decreased in price by 4.75% to 36.51.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were iPower Inc, which rose 50.42% to hit 0.77, Moxian Inc, which gained 45.21% to close at 1.51, and shares SmileDirectClub Inc, which rose 46.77% to end the session at 0.70.

The least gainers were Catalyst Biosciences Inc, which shed 32.69% to close at 0.26. Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc shed 30.15% to end the session at 3.66. Quotes of AGBA Acquisition Ltd decreased in price by 21.52% to 4.12.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1848) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1178), while quotes of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2343 companies rose in price, 1320 fell, and 185 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 2.55% to 18.35, hitting a new 52-week low.

Gold futures for February delivery added 1.25%, or 23.75, to $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 2.03%, or 1.59, to $79.98 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 1.64%, or 1.38, to $85.41 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.12% to 1.08, while USD/JPY fell 1.06% to hit 127.85.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.10% to 101.89.

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IFX Gertrude
01-17-2023, 06:34 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: UK LABOR MARKET DATA DUE

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/stock_market/7.jpg

Labor market statistics from the UK and economic sentiment from Germany are the top economic news due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK unemployment data. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 3.7 percent in three months to November.

In the meantime, Destatis publishes Germany's final consumer and harmonized prices for December. The flash estimates showed that consumer price inflation eased to 8.6 percent from 10.0 percent in November.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat is scheduled to issue consumer and harmonized prices for December. Inflation is seen at 11.6 percent, unchanged from the flash estimate and down from 11.8 percent in November.

At 5.00 am ET, Germany ZEW economic confidence survey results are due. Economists forecast the economic sentiment index to improve to -15 in January from -23.3 in December.

At 6.00 am ET, consumer prices data from Ireland and producer prices from Portugal are due.

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IFX Gertrude
01-18-2023, 05:12 AM
BANK OF JAPAN KEEPS RATE, YIELD CURVE CONTROL UNCHANGED

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/japan/4.jpg

The Bank of Japan kept its interest rates as well as yield curve control unchanged and modified some of its lending programs.

The Policy Board of the BoJ unanimously decided to maintain a negative interest rate of -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the central bank.

The bank will also continue to purchase a necessary amount of JGBs without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent.

After unexpectedly expanding the tolerance band of 10-year JGB yields in December, the bank today maintained the stance that it will allow yields to fluctuate in the range of plus and minus 0.5 percentage points from the target level.

The board also decided to extend by one year the deadline for loan disbursement under the Fund-Provisioning Measure to Stimulate Bank Lending and to expand the range of eligible counterparties for the Funds-Supplying Operations to Support Financing for Climate Change Responses.

In the latest Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, released Wednesday, the central bank raised its inflation outlook for the fiscal 2022 to 3.0 percent from 2.9 percent and maintained the forecast for the fiscal 2023 at 1.6 percent.

For the fiscal 2024, inflation is seen at 1.8 percent, up from 1.6 percent estimated in October.

The bank lowered its fiscal 2022 growth outlook to 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent. Similarly, the growth projection for the fiscal 2023 was trimmed to 1.7 percent from 1.9 percent.

In the fiscal 2024, real growth is forecast to slow to 1.1 percent, which was down from the previous outlook of 1.5 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
01-19-2023, 11:54 PM
The pound is experiencing its finest hour. The main thing is not to let the fervor of the GBP die down

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230119/analytics63c8e778e0567.jpg

By the end of this week, the British currency was in high spirits, confidently moving to the next highs. This time the pound was a winner, although experts warn against excessive euphoria, as they fear further downward movement in the short term.

On Wednesday, January 19, the British currency edged up against the US dollar, as data showed British consumer price inflation dropped to a 3-month low of 10.5% in December but remains near 40-year highs. Analysts observed that prices for basic services rose to 6.8% from the previous 6.4%.

The current macro data may force the Bank of England to reconsider its monetary strategy and vote in February to raise its key rate by 50 bps. Against this backdrop, the pound continues to rise against the euro and the dollar. At the same time, the markets believe that the unexpected core inflation will force the Boe to hike the rate (by 50 basis points). According to analysts, the fate of the rate hike will be decided at the central bank's next meeting in February.

Current British inflation data was within consensus forecasts. This gave a small respite to both the BoE and households, which are now experiencing a cost of living crisis. The recent rise in the pound was recorded after impressive data on the UK labor market. Note that the country's wage indicator hit a record level, which is consistent with long-term inflationary pressures. According to economists, if there are no signs of a decline in service sector inflation in the near future, the BoE will remain aggressive.

According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped to 10.5% y/y in December from 10.7% in November. The CPI continues to retreat from its impressive peaks of December 1981, according to observers. As for the monthly UK Consumer Price Index, it was 0.4%. According to the ONS, core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 6.3% in December, falling short of projections of 6.6%.

According to analysts, growing market expectations concerning the peak of the key rate will provide ample support to the pound. The current macro data from Great Britain is of no small importance in this matter.
According to economists, the December inflation reports showed a slowdown in price growth. However, current data suggests that core inflation remains at a high level, which is far from the target 2%.

According to currency strategists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, inflation in the UK will fall to 9% in March this year, while core inflation will return to the 2% target by the end of 2023. The implementation of this scenario will allow the BoE to cut rates at the beginning of 2024, experts believe.

In this situation the pound was rising steadily, taking advantage of a short-term weakness of the dollar and the macro data. On Wednesday, January 18, GBP/USD remained above 1.2300 as a reaction to the release of the British CPI data. Over the previous day, the pair gained 0.15% and remained in an uptrend. On Thursday, January 19, GBP/USD was trading at 1.2343, continuing its upward spiral.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230119/analytics63c8e7b8ef2dd.jpg

However, some currency strategists are pessimistic about sterling's medium-term prospects. Many analysts expect it to fall to 1.1000 in the long term. The reason is the imbalance in the UK economy caused by the negative effects of the mini-budget. Most of these problems are still unresolved, experts emphasize.

The pound, which approached 6-month highs, was also supported by US macro data. According to analysts, the current economic situation in the US shows that a recession is coming. Against this backdrop, the exchange rate of GBP against the dollar reached its peak since June 2022. Note that the current macro data from the US demonstrated the deterioration of the national economy and opened the way for further easing of inflationary pressures. Disappointing macro data suggest that the Federal Reserve's efforts to get inflation back to the 2% target are paying off. However, a sharp decline in inflation could trigger a prolonged recession, economists warn.

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IFX Gertrude
01-20-2023, 10:50 AM
Dollar weakens as US debt rises. Interest rates could go higher than 5%

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230120/analytics63ca6311f0d8e.jpg

Growing uncertainty has caused US equities to fall, with all three major indices down a full percentage point. Meanwhile, gold rose strongly and almost gained as much as 1.5%.

The move came after reports emerged that the US already reached the debt ceiling set by the Congress. According to the data, it now exceeds $ 31 trillion, which is likely to force Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take "extraordinary measures", such as not paying all of the country's bills. It will also prompt Yellen to send a letter to the Congressional leadership, following the one she already sent last January 13, when she urged the Congress to act immediately in order to protect the full faith and credit of the United States.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230120/analytics63ca634661c9d.jpg

Despite this, Fed officials continue to highlight the need for further rate hikes as it is a key tool to address and lower the current rate of inflation. The bank has announced its plan to raise the benchmark rate above 5% even though recent data indicates that inflationary pressures may have peaked.

Markets are becoming increasingly concerned because previously, the political administration has been slow to act, either postponing a solution or only proposing to raise the debt ceiling. Persistently high inflation can only make the problem worse.

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IFX Gertrude
01-24-2023, 12:51 AM
The Fed representatives disagree on how to proceed with their positions.

The US stock market is committed to maintaining its highs from this year. There are those, including the governor of the Federal Reserve System, Christopher Waller, who advocate raising the interest rate by only a quarter of a percentage point at the next meeting in February of this year, despite the pessimistic tone of some Federal Reserve System representatives, including its head, Jerome Powell. Waller believes there is no purpose in quickly hiking interest rates higher and pushing the economy into recession while he awaits more evidence that inflation is dropping and going in the correct direction.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230123/analytics63ce88997e874.jpg

He compared the monetary policy to an aircraft that quickly took off and is now prepared for a steady drop, but he also stressed that it is not yet time to declare victory over inflation. In light of this reasoning and the evidence at hand, Waller stated, "I am now in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month." There appears to be some volatility ahead. He did not say how high he expected the rates to be.

Other officials, like Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, favored a rate increase of merely 0.25 percentage points at the meeting on January 31February 1, as I said above. The value of the US stock market will rise as Fed officials' statements become more subdued.

Premarket

A semiconductor manufacturer, AMD, saw its shares rise about 3% in premarket trading after Barclays upgraded them from "hold" to "buy," noting that it expects growth potential owing to generative AI.

After JPMorgan upgraded its rating of online retailer Wayfair from "sell" to "buy," the company's shares increased by more than 12%. The Wall Street business claimed better managerial awareness of cost control and improved trends in acquiring market share.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20230123/analytics63ce88d8565a5.jpg

On hearing that activist investor Elliott Management had purchased a multibillion-dollar investment in the leading cloud computing company, Salesforce shares increased more than 5% in premarket trade.

Shopify. The stock of the e-commerce company Shopify increased by over 5% after Deutsche Bank raised its rating from "hold" to "buy," noting that more and more businesses are expressing interest in Shopify.

After the Wall Street Journal reported that major banks are collaborating to develop their digital wallets, PayPal shares dropped more than 1% in premarket trade. The wallet will take on PayPal and Apple Pay as competitors.

Following the disclosure that negotiations to merge Western Digital and Kioxia Holdings are still ongoing, shares of Western Digital increased by 4%.

Regarding the S&P 500's technical picture, the scenario is still favorable to buyers. The index may continue to rise, but to do so, the support level of 3,961 must be maintained. Returning $3,983 under control will be the bulls' equally important responsibility. Only after that can we anticipate a more assured upward move on the assumption that the trading instrument will strengthen by $4,010. A little higher is the level of $4,038; it will be challenging to surpass it. Buyers are only required to declare themselves in the vicinity of $3,923 in the event of a downward movement and a lack of support at $3,960. Its breakdown will cause the trading instrument to drop to $3,891 rapidly.

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IFX Gertrude
01-24-2023, 06:58 AM
US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.76%

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At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.76%, the S&P 500 rose 1.19%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.01%.

Shares of Intel Corporation led the way among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 1.05 points or 3.59% to close at 30.27. Salesforce Inc rose 4.62 points or 3.05% to close at 155.87. Apple Inc rose 2.35% or 3.24 points to close at 141.11.

The least gainers were Procter & Gamble Company, which shed 1.92 points or 1.34% to end the session at 141.05. Verizon Communications Inc was up 0.93% or 0.37 points to close at 39.63 while Amgen Inc was down 0.86% or 2.27 points to close at 260. 97.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Advanced Micro Devices Inc, which rose 9.22% to hit 76.53, Western Digital Corporation, which gained 8.66% to close at 41.79. as well as shares of Tesla Inc, which rose 7.74% to end the session at 143.75.

The least gainers were Xylem Inc, which shed 7.95% to close at 101.42. Shares of SBA Communications Corp shed 3.55% to end the session at 286.27. Schlumberger NV fell 2.60% to 55.86.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Gbs, which rose 293.13% to hit 1.03, Helbiz Inc, which gained 109.13% to close at 0.43, and VERB TECHNOLOGY COMPANY INC, which rose 69.65% to end the session at 0.39.

The least gainers were Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 29.04% to close at 14.76. Shares of Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc shed 25.11% to end the session at 3.40. Quotes of Ontrak Inc decreased in price by 21.23% to 0.83.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2196) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (841), while quotes of 122 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2362 companies rose in price, 1346 fell, and 201 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.20% to 19.81.

Gold futures for February delivery added 0.23%, or 4.35, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery rose 0.01%, or 0.01, to $81.65 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 0.57%, or 0.50, to $88.13 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.15% to 1.09, while USD/JPY rose 0.84% to hit 130.65.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.01% to 101.79.

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IFX Gertrude
01-25-2023, 05:25 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DUE

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Business sentiment from Germany and producer prices from the UK are the top economic news due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to issue UK producer prices for December. Output price inflation is forecast to rise to 16.4 percent from 14.8 percent in November. Input price inflation is seen at 18.0 percent versus 19.2 percent in the previous month.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain producer price figures are due. In the meantime, Italy's Istat publishes non-EU foreign trade data.

At 4.00 am ET, Germany's ifo Institute publishes monthly business confidence survey results for January. The business sentiment index is seen at 90.2, up from 88.6 in December.

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IFX Gertrude
01-26-2023, 05:13 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Silver Commodity Asset, Thursday January 26, 2023

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On the 4-hour chart of the Silver commodity asset, it appears that a hidden deviation has emerged between the price movement of Silver which is in a bearish channel and the Awesome Oscillator indicator which confirms that in the near future Silver has the potential to fall down to the 23,598-area level. 23,413 as the main target and level 23,165 as the next target to be tested but if on the way to the targets of these levels suddenly Silver is corrected upwards significantly breaking above level 24,105 then all the setups previously described will become invalid and automatically cancel by itself.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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IFX Gertrude
01-26-2023, 07:04 AM
UK CAR PRODUCTION FALLS 9.8% IN 2022, ELECTRIC VEHICLE OUTPUT AT RECORD

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Car production in the United Kingdom declined sharply in the year 2022, as global chip shortages and structural changes hampered output along with weaker exports, while electric vehicle production hit a record high, data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, or SMMT, showed on Thursday.

Total car production fell 9.8 percent on an annual basis. There were 775,014 units produced in 2022, down from 859,575 in 2021.

Demand from the domestic market increased 9.4 percent, while that from the foreign market plunged 14.0 percent in 2022.

Despite facing global challenges, UK factories produced a record number of electrical vehicles in 2022, totalling 234,066 units. This shows a 4.5 percent rise annually to represent almost a third of all car production.

In December, UK car production slumped 17

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IFX Gertrude
01-27-2023, 05:28 AM
Oil prices edge up, and Russia transfers record volumes on high seas

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Oil is steadily rising in trading on Thursday amid expectations of increased demand. The easing of some quarantine restrictions in China promises the market a recovery in consumption this year, which supports the general optimism in the commodity sector.

Brent crude for March delivery was at $87.31 per barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange by 17:39 London time, up 1.38% on the previous trading day.

The West Texas Intermediate for March delivery was at $81.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, i.e., 1.33% above the final value of the previous trading session.

Oil prices were also supported by the report on crude oil stocks in the US, which was published on Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the country's commercial crude oil inventories rose by 0.5 million barrels during the week ending Jan. 20. Analysts had expected reserves to grow by 0.97 million barrels.

Distillate inventories continued to fall by 0.51 million, reflecting the cold weather in the country. Demand for refined products in the US declined slightly over the week, but still remained at quite comfortable levels for current prices - 19.5 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Russia has transshipped record volumes of Urals oil at sea. According to the agency, a total of 19 million barrels of crude oil are likely to be transshipped in January and December. The report said that volume of such crude is expected to hit a record 14 million barrels in January alone.

Recall that at the beginning of December, the European Union prohibited the maritime transport of Russian crude oil and petroleum products. In addition to that, following the G7 plan, EU countries agreed to cap the maritime trade of Russian oil at $60 per barrel. Such a sanction measure led to the fact that the cost of freight began to grow rapidly. Vessels that transship crude at $60 and below are obliged to use insurance under the current conditions.

Bloomberg reported that sources said a fifth supertanker, or very large crude carrier (VLCC), are involved in transshipment of Urals. Three vessels have already departed for Asia, and two more are waiting for departure at the Spanish transshipment point.

The EU, among other sanctions measures, is also studying the possibility of imposing a price limit of $100 per barrel on Russian diesel fuel.

The EU is also studying the possibility of setting a price ceiling on oil products from Russia that are traded at a discount, such as fuel oil, at $45.

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