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IFX Gertrude
04-30-2021, 07:01 AM
AUSTRALIA PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT RISES 0.4% ON MONTH IN MARCH

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Private sector credit in Australia was up 0.4 percent on month in March, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Friday - after gaining 0.2 percent in February.

On a yearly basis, private sector credit climbed 1.0 percent after rising 1.6 percent in the previous month.

Housing credit was up 0.5 percent on month and 4.1 percent on year, while personal credit added 0.2 percent on month but tumbled 10.7 percent on year and business credit rose 0.3 percent on month and fell 2.6 percent on year.

Broad money was flat on month and jumped 9.6 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
05-03-2021, 05:14 AM
MYANMAR MANUFACTURING PMI IMPROVES TO 33.0 IN APRIL - MARKIT

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The manufacturing sector in Myanmar continued to contract in April, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Markit Economics revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 33.0.

That's up from 27.5 in March and it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

All five of the PMI components had positive directional influences on the headline figure in April, but four (the exception being suppliers' delivery times) remained well inside negative territory. Output and new orders both fell at the fifth-fastest rates in the survey history, while stocks of purchases and employment contracted at the third- and fourth-quickest rates on record, respectively.

Although firms expect output to rise by April 2022 on balance, overall expectations were the weakest in over two years.

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IFX Gertrude
05-04-2021, 06:35 AM
AUSSIE APPRECIATES AFTER RBA DECISION

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As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left benchmark lending rate and the 3-year Australian Government bond yield target unchanged at 10 basis points. Following the announcement, the aussie rose against its major rivals.

The aussie was trading at 84.62 against the yen, 1.5547 against the euro, 0.7743 against the greenback and 1.0782 against the kiwi around 12:35 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
05-05-2021, 05:24 AM
HONG KONG PRIVATE SECTOR PMI EBBS IN APRIL - MARKIT

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The private sector in Hong Kong continued to expand in April, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Markit Economics showed on Wednesday with a services PMI score of 50.3.

That's down from 50.5 in March although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

A reduced level of COVID-19 case numbers and the loosening of restrictions contributed to improving business conditions at the start of the second quarter of the year.

Total new orders had fallen for the same length of time but stabilized during April. While the situation regarding the pandemic had shown signs of improvement, a number of firms continued to be negatively impacted, preventing more pronounced expansions in output and new orders.

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IFX Gertrude
05-06-2021, 05:35 AM
NEW ZEALAND BUILDING PERMITS SURGE 17.9% IN MARCH

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The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand spiked a seasonally adjusted 17.9 percent on month in March, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - coming in at 4,218.

That follows the 19.3 percent monthly contraction in February.

Permits were issued for 2,438 stand-alone houses, 1,243 townhouses, flats and units, 276 retirement village units and 261 apartments.

In the year to March, building permits climbed 9.1 percent at 41,028.

The annual value of non-residential building work consented was NZ$7.5 billion, up 5.3 percent from the March 2020 year.

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IFX Gertrude
05-07-2021, 05:52 AM
PHILIPPINES MARCH TRADE DEFICIT $2.412 BILLION

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The Philippines posted a merchandise trade deficit of $2.412 billion in March, government data showed on Friday - following the $2.293 billion shortfall in February.

Exports surged 31.6 percent on year after slipping 2.3 percent in the previous month, while imports jumped an annual 16.6 percent after gaining 2.7 percent a month earlier.

The bureau also said that industrial production plummeted by 74.2 percent on year after sinking an upwardly revised 46.4 percent in February (originally down 46.5 percent).

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IFX Gertrude
05-10-2021, 05:27 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE DATA DUE

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Halifax house prices from the UK and investor confidence from euro area are due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway is scheduled to release consumer and producer price figures. Inflation is forecast to fall to 3 percent in April from 3.1 percent in March. In the meantime, foreign trade and consumer prices from Denmark are due.

At 3.30 am ET, UK Halifax house price data is due for April. Prices had increased 6.5 percent annually in three months to March.

At 4.30 am ET, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data is due. The investor sentiment index is forecast to rise moderately to 14.0 in May from 13.1 in April.

Half an hour later, Greece industrial production figures are due for March.

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IFX Gertrude
05-11-2021, 05:47 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY ZEW ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Economic confidence survey data from Germany is due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's wholesale prices for April. Prices had increased 4.4 percent annually in March.

At 3.00 am ET, consumer price figures are due from the Czech Republic and Hungary. The Czech inflation is forecast to rise to 2.7 percent in April from 2.3 percent in March.

Hungary's inflation is seen at 5 percent in April versus 3.7 percent in March.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's statistical office Istat is scheduled to release industrial production for March. Economists forecast output to grow 0.4 percent on month, following a 0.2 percent rise in February.

At 5.00 am ET, Germany's ZEW economic confidence survey data is due. The economic sentiment index is seen at 72 in May versus 70.7 in April.

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IFX Gertrude
05-12-2021, 06:10 AM
JAPAN LEADING INDEX DATA DUE ON WEDNESDAY

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Japan will on Wednesday release preliminary March figures for its leading and coincident economic indexes, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Their previous readings were 98.7 and 89.9, respectively.

South Korea will see April numbers for unemployment; in March, the jobless rate was 3.9 percent.

Australia will release March data for building permits, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 17.4 percent on month following the 20.1 percent jump in February.

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IFX Gertrude
05-13-2021, 06:30 AM
NEW ZEALAND FOOD PRICES JUMP 1.1% ON MONTH IN APRIL

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Food prices in New Zealand climbed an unadjusted 1.1 percent on month in April, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday; seasonally adjusted, food prices rose 0.7 percent.

Individually, fruit and vegetable prices rose 4.8 percent (up 3.4 percent after seasonal adjustment); meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 0.1 percent; grocery food prices rose 1.0 percent (up 1.0 percent after seasonal adjustment); non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 1.0 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 1.2 percent.

On a yearly basis, food prices gained 0.7 percent.

Individually, fruit and vegetable prices increased 6.0 percent; meat, poultry, and fish prices decreased 2.2 percent; grocery food prices decreased 1.3 percent; and non-alcoholic beverage prices decreased 3.4 percent.

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05-14-2021, 12:47 AM
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IFX Gertrude
05-14-2021, 05:44 AM
SOUTH KOREA EXPORT PRICES CLIMB 10.6% ON YEAR IN APRIL

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Export prices in South Korea were up 10.6 percent on year in April, the Bank of Korea said on Friday - after rising 5.9 percent in the previous month.

Import prices spiked an annual 15.0 percent in April after climbing 9.0 percent a month earlier.

Individually, export prices for agricultural and marine products fell 4.2 percent on year and manufactured products jumped 10.7 percent.

Import prices for raw materials skyrocketed an annual 51.3 percent, while intermediate goods prices jumped 11.3 percent, capital goods fell 5.4 percent and consumer goods were down 4.2 percent.

On a monthly basis, export prices rose 2.2 percent and import prices fell 0.5 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
05-17-2021, 06:22 AM
THAI GDP FALLS AT SLOWER PACE IN Q1

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Thailand's economy contracted at a slower pace in the first quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Council reported Monday.

Gross domestic product fell 2.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, following a 4.2 percent decrease in the fourth quarter. Economists had forecast an annual decline of 3.3 percent.

On a quarterly basis, growth eased sharply to 0.2 percent from 1.1 percent in the preceding quarter. However, the rate was better than the economists' forecast of -0.8 percent.

On the expenditure-side, private final consumption expenditure dropped 0.5 percent annually, while government spending grew 2.1 percent. Gross fixed capital formation increased sharply by 7.3 percent.

Goods and services balance recorded a deficit of THB 30.1 billion, comprising a surplus of THB 224.3 billion in trade balance and a deficit of THB 254.4 billion in service balance.

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IFX Gertrude
05-18-2021, 06:44 AM
JAPAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT -5.1% ANNUALIZED IN Q1

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Japan's gross domestic product contracted an annualized 5.1 percent in the first quarter of 2021, the Cabinet Office said in Tuesday's preliminary report.

That missed expectations for a decline of 4.6 percent following the downwardly revised 11.6 percent increase in the previous three months (originally 11.7 percent).

On a quarterly basis, GDP sank 1.3 percent - again missing expectations for a drop of 1.2 percent following the 2.8 percent increase in the three months prior.

Capital expenditure was down 1.4 percent on quarter, shy of expectations for a gain of 1.1 percent following the 4.3 percent jump in the previous quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
05-19-2021, 05:29 AM
AUSTRALIA WAGE PRICE INDEX CLIMBS 0.6% IN Q1

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The wage price index in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That exceeded expectations for 0.5 percent and was unchanged from the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, the WPI advanced 1.5 percent - beating forecasts for 1.4 percent, which would have been unchanged.

Wages in the private sector were up 0.6 percent on quarter and 1.4 percent on year, while public sector wages gained 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.5 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
05-20-2021, 05:52 AM
AUSTRALIA JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 5.5% IN APRIL

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The unemployment rate in Australia was a seasonally adjusted 5.5 percent in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was beneath expectation for 5.6 percent and down from the upwardly revised 5.7 percent in March (originally 5.6 percent).

The Australian economy lost 30,600 jobs last month, well shy of expectations for a gain of 15,000 jobs following the addition of 70,700 jobs in March.

The participation rate fell to 66.0 percent, missing forecasts for 66.3 - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
05-21-2021, 05:34 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE FLASH PMI DATA DUE

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Flash Purchasing Managers' survey results from euro area and the UK are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics publishes UK retail sales data for April. Sales are forecast to grow 4.5 percent on month, slower than the 5.4 percent increase in March.

At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit releases France flash PMI data for May. The composite output index is forecast to rise to 53.7 from 51.6 in the previous month. At 3.30 am ET, Germany's flash composite output survey results are due. The composite PMI is seen rising to 57.1 in May from 55.8 in the previous month.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is scheduled to publish Eurozone flash PMI data. The composite output index is expected to climb to 55.1 in May from 53.8 in the previous month.

In the meantime, Italy's industrial turnover data is due for March.

Half an hour later, UK Markit/CIPS flash composite PMI data is due. Economists forecast the composite index to remain unchanged at 60.0 in May.

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IFX Gertrude
05-24-2021, 05:39 AM
NEW ZEALAND RETAIL SALES CLIMB 2.5% ON QUARTER IN Q1

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The total volume of retail sales in New Zealand was up a seasonally adjusted 2.5 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2021, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday - following the upwardly revised 2.6 percent contraction in the three months prior (originally -2.7 percent).

By industry, the main movements were: electrical and electronic goods, up 8.4 percent; recreational goods, up 16 percent; hardware, building, and garden supplies, up 4.5 percent; and department stores, up 5.6 percent.

The total value of retail sales also was up 2.5 percent on quarter ($648 million).

On a yearly basis, sales rose 6.8 percent - accelerating from 4.8 percent in the three months prior.

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IFX Gertrude
05-25-2021, 05:44 AM
SINGAPORE GDP EXPANDS 1.3% ON YEAR IN Q1

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Singapore's gross domestic product gained 1.3 percent on year in the first three months of 2021, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Tuesday.

That beat expectations for an increase of 0.9 percent following the 2.4 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP rose 3.1 percent after climbing 3.8 percent in the three months prior.

Upon the release of the data, the MTI maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2021 at 4.0 to 6.0 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
05-26-2021, 06:25 AM
AUSTRALIA CONSTRUCTION WORK CLIMBS 2.4% IN Q1

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The value of total construction work done in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$51.975 billion.

That beat expectations for an increase of 2.2 percent following the upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in the three months prior (originally -0.9 percent).

Building construction was up 2.5 percent on quarter, while residential building gained 5.1 percent, non-residential building fell 1.6 percent and engineering rose 2.2 percent.

On a yearly basis, the value of total construction work fell 1.1 percent. Building construction was down 1.8 percent on year, while residential building gained 4.2 percent, non-residential building fell 10.4 percent and engineering eased 0.3 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
05-27-2021, 06:16 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Consumer confidence survey results from Germany and Italy are due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, German GfK consumer confidence survey results are due. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index is forecast to rise to -5.2 in June from -8.8 in May.

In the meantime, foreign trade figures for Switzerland are due.

At 3.00 am ET, the National Institute of Economic Research is slated to publish Sweden economic tendency survey data for May.

Half an hour later, Statistics Sweden is set to issue foreign trade figures for April. The trade surplus is seen at SEK 5.6 billion versus SEK 4.1 billion in March.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit releases Austria's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results.

In the meantime, business and consumer sentiment survey results are due from Italy. The consumer confidence indicator is seen rising to 104.4 in May from 102.3 in April. The business sentiment index is expected to climb to 106.4 from 105.4 a month ago.

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IFX Gertrude
05-28-2021, 05:46 AM
JAPAN JOBLESS RATE CLIMBS TO 2.8% IN APRIL

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The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in April, the Ministry of Communications and Internal Affairs said on Friday.

That was above expectations for 2.7 percent and was up from 2.6 percent in March.

The job-to-applicant ratio was 1.09 - again missing forecasts for 1.10, which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
05-31-2021, 05:33 AM
AUSTRALIA PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT GAINS 0.2% ON MONTH IN APRIL

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Private sector credit in Australia was up 0.2 percent on month in April, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Monday - slowing from the 1.0 percent gain in March.

On a yearly basis, credit gained 1.3 percent, accelerating from 0.4 percent in the previous month.

Housing credit was up 0.5 percent on month and 4.4 percent on year, while personal credit was flat on month and sank 7.8 percent on year and business credit fell 0.3 percent on month and 3.0 percent on year.

Broad money rose 0.2 percent on month and 6.8 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
06-01-2021, 05:56 AM
AUSSIE RETREATS AFTER RBA DECISION

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As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left benchmark lending rate and the 3-year Australian Government bond yield target unchanged at 10 basis points. Following the announcement, the aussie pulled back from its early highs against its major rivals.

The aussie was trading at 84.83 against the yen, 1.5781 against the euro, 0.7747 against the greenback and 1.0641 against the kiwi around 12:35 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
06-02-2021, 06:07 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY RETAIL SALES DATA DUE

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Retail sales from Germany and mortgage approvals from the UK are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's retail sales data for April. Economists forecast sales to fall 2 percent on month, following March's 7.7 percent increase.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's monthly unemployment data is due from labor ministry.

At 4.30 am ET, the Bank of England is set to issue UK mortgage approvals figures for April. Approvals are forecast to rise to 84,980 from 82,735 in the previous month.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat releases euro area producer prices for April. Producer price inflation is forecast to rise to 7.3 percent from 4.3 percent in March.

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IFX Gertrude
06-03-2021, 05:42 AM
SINGAPORE PMI PICKS UP STEAM IN MAY - MARKIT

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The private sector in Singapore continued to expand in May, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from Markit Economics showed on Thursday with a services PMI score of 54.4.

That's up from 51.8 in April and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Both manufacturing and services registered stronger performances in May, but the construction sector saw a sharp downturn. The finance and insurance sub-sector registered another rapid rate of expansion in activity.

The key domestic event that took place in May had been the reintroduction of Phase 2 restrictions mid-month. Some respondents noted an increase in output ahead of the setting of new restrictions contributing to the overall improvement of business activity. Foreign demand supported the increase in new orders, with renewed export growth in May following a marginal fall in April.

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IFX Gertrude
06-07-2021, 05:35 AM
AUSTRALIA PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX CLIMBS T0 61.2 IN MAY - AIG

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The services sector in Australia continues to expand in May, and at a slightly faster pace, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group revealed on Monday with a seasonally adjusted Performance of Services Index score of 61.2.

That's up from 61.0 in April, and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

This was the highest monthly result in the Australian PSI? since October 2003.

Four of the five activity indicators - sales, new orders, employment and deliveries - showed positive results in the month.

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IFX Gertrude
06-08-2021, 05:48 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT, ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE DUE

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Industrial production and economic confidence from Germany are due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's industrial production data for April. Economists forecast output to grow 0.5 percent on month, slower than the 2.5 percent increase in March.

At 2.45 am ET, foreign trade and current account figures are due from France.

At 3.00 am ET, industrial production from Hungary and retail sales from the Czech Republic are due. Economists forecast retail sales to grow 11.3 percent annually in April following a 6.6 percent rise in March.

Half an hour later, Statistics Sweden publishes industrial production and new orders data.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat releases retail sales for April. Sales had decreased 0.1 percent on month in March.

At 5.00 am ET, Germany ZEW economic confidence survey results are due. The economic confidence index is forecast to rise to 86.0 in June from 84.4 in May.

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IFX Gertrude
06-09-2021, 06:04 AM
MALAYSIA JOBLESS RATE FALLS IN APRIL

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Malaysia's unemployment rate fell marginally in April, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

The jobless rate fell to 4.6 percent in April from 4.7 percent in March.

The number of unemployed persons decreased to 742,700 in April from 753,200 in the previous month.

The number of employed rose by 0.1 percent monthly to 15.35 million in April from 15.33 million in the prior month.

The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 68.6 percent in April.

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IFX Gertrude
06-10-2021, 05:53 AM
JAPAN PRODUCER PRICES CLIMB 0.7% ON MONTH IN MAY

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.7 percent on month in May, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent and was down from 0.9 percent in April.

On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 4.9 percent - again beating forecasts for 4.5 percent and up from 3.6 percent in the previous month.

Export prices were up 1.0 percent on month and 11.0 percent on year last month, the bank said, while import prices rose 2.2 percent on month and surged 25.4 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
06-11-2021, 05:27 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK GDP DATA DUE

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Monthly GDP, industrial production and foreign trade figures are due from the UK on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK GDP data. The economy is forecast to grow 2.2 percent on month in April, following a 2.1 percent rise in March.

The visible trade deficit is seen at GBP 12.1 billion compared to -GBP 11.7 billion in March. Economists expect UK industrial output to grow 1.2 percent on month in April, slower than the 1.8 percent increase in the previous month. At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE publishes final consumer price data for May. In the meantime, industrial production and retail sales from Turkey are due.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat releases quarterly unemployment data.

At 6.30 am ET, Russia's central bank announces its interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to lift its key rate to 5.50 percent from 5.00 percent.

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IFX Yvonne
06-14-2021, 06:41 AM
NEW ZEALAND SERVICES INDEX SLIPS TO 56.1 IN MAY - BUSINESSNZ


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The services index in New Zealand continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from BusinessNZ showed on Monday with a Performance of Services Index of 56.1.

That's down from 61.2 in April, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Among the individual components of the survey, new orders (62.1), sales (58.7), employment (54.3) and stocks (51.6) all were in expansion territory, while supplier deliveries (45.1) contracted.

"While the current strength in the PSI and PMI says good things for economic growth over coming quarters, the obvious supply side stresses suggests significant upward pressure is building on inflation," said BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel.

IFX Yvonne
06-15-2021, 06:11 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK UNEMPLOYMENT DATA DUE


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Unemployment data from the UK and revised consumer price data from Germany are due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK unemployment data for April. The jobless rate is seen at 4.7 percent in three months to April versus 4.8 percent in three months to March.

In the meantime, Destatis is set to publish Germany's final consumer prices for May. According to flash estimate, consumer price rose to 2.5 percent in May from 2 percent in April.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office Insee is scheduled to release revised consumer price data. Inflation is seen at seen at 1.4 percent, in line with flash estimate, versus 1.2 percent in April.

At 3.00 am ET, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is slated to issue economic forecasts.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's revised consumer price data for May is due. The statistical office is expected to confirm 1.3 percent rise in consumer prices in May.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat publishes euro area foreign trade data for April. The trade surplus totaled EUR 15.8 billion in March.

IFX Yvonne
06-16-2021, 06:01 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK CONSUMER PRICE DATA DUE


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Consumer and producer prices from the UK are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK consumer and producer prices for May. Consumer price inflation is forecast to rise to 1.8 percent from 1.5 percent in April. Output price inflation is seen at 4.5 percent versus 3.9 percent in the previous month.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech producer price data for May is due. Producer price inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 4.6 percent.

At 4.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to issue UK house price data.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat releases euro area labor cost data for the first quarter.

IFX Yvonne
06-17-2021, 06:24 AM
SINGAPORE NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS DIP 0.1% IN MAY


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The value of Singapore's non-oil domestic exports were down a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on month in May, Enterprise Singapore said on Thursday - coming in at SGD15.4 billion.

That was well shy of expectations for an increase of 4.7 percent following the 8.8 percent decline in April.

On a yearly basis, NODX climbed 8.8 percent - missing forecasts for an increase of 16.0 percent following the 6.0 percent increase in the previous month.

NODX to the top 10 markets as a whole rose in May, mainly due to China, Hong Kong and Malaysia - although NODX to the United States, Japan and the EU 27 declined.

IFX Gertrude
06-18-2021, 06:47 AM
EURO LITTLE CHANGED FOLLOWING GERMAN PPI

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Germany's producer price data has been released at 2.00 am ET Friday. The euro changed little against its major counterparts after the data.

The euro was trading at 130.01 against the yen, 1.0927 against the franc, 0.8564 against the pound and 1.1903 against the greenback around 2:05 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
06-19-2021, 05:45 AM
DOLLAR EXTENDS GAINS AGAINST RIVALS

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The U.S. dollar turned in another fine performance, gaining significant ground against its major rivals on Friday, as it continued to benefit from a hawkish policy outlook from the Federal Reserve.

While announcing its monetary policy on Wednesday, the Fed signaled that it would raise interest rates by 2023, and also likely taper its bond-buying plan sometime sooner than expected.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated during his post meeting press conference on Wednesday that the members have started discussions about scaling back the bond purchase program given higher inflation and faster economic growth.

The dollar index rose to 92.41, its highest level since mid-April. Despite paring some gains subsequently, the index remains quite high up at 92.28, more than 0.4% up from the previous close.

Against the Euro, the dollar firmed to $1.1867, gaining about 0.35%. The euro area current account surplus totaled EUR 23 billion in April versus EUR 18 billion surplus in the previous month, the European Central Bank reported.

The Pound Sterling was down too, fetching $1.3808 a unit, compared to $1.3926 on Thursday. Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that retail sales in the UK dropped 1.4% month-on-month in May, reversing a 9.2% rise in April and confounding expectations for an increase of 1.6%.

On a yearly basis, the retail sales volume growth moderated to 24.6% in May from 42.4% a month ago. This was also slower than the expected expansion of 29%.

Against the Yen, the dollar was slightly weak at 110.19.

The dollar strengthened to 0.7490 against the Aussie, gaining from 0.7552 a unit.

Against Swiss franc the dollar gained, fetching CHF 0.9224 a unit, as against CHF 0.9175 Thursday evening.

The Loonie weakened to 1.2440 a dollar, declining from 1.2358.

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IFX Gertrude
06-21-2021, 06:54 AM
CHINA KEEPS BENCHMARK LENDING RATES UNCHANGED

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China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged, as widely expected, on Monday.

The one-year loan prime rate was maintained at 3.85 percent and the five-year loan prime rate was retained at 4.65 percent.

The one-year and five-year loan prime rates were last lowered in April 2020. The one-year loan prime rate was cut by 20 basis points and five-year rate by 10 basis points in April 2020.

As the People's Bank of China had kept the rate on its medium-term lending facility unchanged early this month, markets widely expected the rates to remain on hold today.

The loan prime rate is fixed monthly based on the submission of 18 banks, though Beijing has influence over the rate-setting. This lending rate replaced the central bank's traditional benchmark lending rate in August 2019. The PBoC has now fully reversed last year's credit acceleration using quantitative controls, Sheana Yue and Mark Williams, economists at Capital Economics, said. Accordingly, policy rate hikes that could prompt LPR increases are unlikely in the near future.

The key point for the economy is that the tighter credit conditions will act as a headwind over the coming quarters even in the absence of any rate changes, the economists added.

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IFX Gertrude
06-22-2021, 06:35 AM
FINLAND JOBLESS RATE FALLS IN MAY

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Finland's jobless rate decreased in May, figures from Statistics Finland showed on Tuesday.

The unemployment rate for the 15 to 74 age group fell to 9.6 percent in May from 10.9 percent in the same month last year. In April, jobless rate was 9.0 percent.

The number of unemployed persons decreased by 25,000 to 275,000 in May from 300,000 in the last year.

The employment rate rose to 73.0 percent in May from 69.1 percent in the same month last year.

The number of employed persons grew by 138,000 from a year ago to 2.58 million.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6 percent in May.

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IFX Yvonne
06-23-2021, 09:48 AM
POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER U.K. PMI DATA

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At 4.30 am ET Wednesday, UK IHS Markit/CIPS composite Purchasing Managers' survey results have been released. The pound changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The pound was trading at 154.93 against the yen, 1.3972 against the greenback, 0.8548 against the euro and 1.2823 against the franc around 4:35 am ET.

IFX Gertrude
06-24-2021, 06:53 AM
DUTCH Q1 GDP FALLS MORE THAN ESTIMATED

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The Dutch economy contracted more than initially estimated in the first quarter, revised data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday.

Gross domestic product declined 0.8 percent sequentially, bigger than the -0.5 percent estimated on May 18. GDP had remained flat in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The expenditure-side breakdown of GDP showed that household spending decreased 3.5 percent and government expenditure was down 2 percent. At the same time, gross investment in fixed assets advanced 3 percent.

Import of goods and services gained 0.8 percent and exports of goods and services grew 1.1 percent.

On a yearly basis, GDP contracted 2.4 percent annually, after falling 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter. The decline for the first quarter was revised from -2.8 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
06-25-2021, 06:09 AM
UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REMAINS STABLE IN JUNE: GFK

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UK consumer sentiment remained unchanged in June, survey results from market research group GfK showed on Friday.

The consumer confidence index held steady at -9.0 in June, while it was forecast to rise to -7.0.

"A repetition of last month's score doesn't mean confidence is about to nose-dive," Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said.

The upwards trajectory for the Index since the dark days at the start of the pandemic is currently still on track, Staton said. However, forecasts for rising retail price inflation could weaken consumer confidence quickly.

Four measures of the index were up in comparison to the previous month, while one measure was down.

The index measuring past changes in personal finances gained four points to zero. The forecast for personal finances over the next year rose only one point to +11.

The measure for the general economic situation over the last year edged up one point to -47, while the expectations for the general economic situation over the coming twelve months dropped by six points to -2.

The Major Purchase Index improved by two points to -5 and the Savings Index was down one point to +21 in June.

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IFX Gertrude
06-26-2021, 06:34 AM
DOLLAR RECOVERS AFTER MID SESSION SETBACK

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The U.S. dollar depreciated against its most major counterparts in the European session on Friday, as the nation's personal income slumped in May, easing fears over a faster tightening of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. .

The currency recovered from lows post noon and even managed to gain some ground against some of its rivals.

In economic news today, a report from the Commerce Department showed the annual rate of core consumer price growth in May matched economist estimates. The reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Fed showed the annual rate of core consumer price growth accelerated to 3.4% in May from 3.1% in April.

According to the data released by the Commerce Department, personal income slumped by 2% in May after plunging by 13.1% in April. Economists had expected personal income to tumble by 2.5%.

Meanwhile, the report showed personal spending was virtually unchanged in May after climbing by 0.9% in April. Personal spending was expected to rise by 0.4%.

A report from the University of Michigan said that its consumer sentiment reading for the US was revised lower to 85.5 in June from a preliminary reading of 86.4. Although market had expected to score to come in at 87.4, it still remained the second-highest since start of the pandemic.

The currency was further weighed by stimulus optimism, after President Joe Biden announced that the White House has reached an infrastructure deal with U.S. Senators worth $579 billion.

The agreement proposes spending to rebuild roads, bridges and other traditional infrastructure over the next five years.

The package is expected to generate "millions" of jobs and will be funded through unused coronavirus aid money and returned state jobless benefits.

The dollar index dropped to 91.53 around mid morning, but rallied to 91.88 later on in the day. It was last seen at 91.80, down slightly from the previous close.

Against the Euro, the dollar was slightly weak at $1.1937, after recovering from $1.1977.

Against Pound Sterling, the dollar firmed to $1.3879, gaining from $1.3922.

The Yen gained marginally at 110.79 a dollar.

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IFX Gertrude
06-28-2021, 06:42 AM
BOJ SUMMARY: INFLATION LIKELY TO RISE IN H2 2021

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Japan's inflation is likely to rise in the second half of 2021 as pent-up demand starts materializing, Bank of Japan policymakers said at the monetary policy meeting held on June 17 and 18.

According to the summary of opinions, inflation is set to be around zero percent in the short run.

Inflation is expected to increase gradually, mainly on the back of continued improvement in economic activity, a rise in energy prices, and a dissipation of the effects of a reduction in mobile phone charges.

Nonetheless, inflationary pressure is expected be only transitory due to an entrenched deflationary mindset.

As vaccinations have been progressing rapidly of late, Japan's economy is expected to recover to a certain extent in the short run, a member said.

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IFX Gertrude
06-29-2021, 06:01 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Economic confidence data from euro area and mortgage approvals from the UK are due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 1.30 am ET, the French statistical office Insee publishes unemployment data for the first quarter. The jobless rate is forecast to rise to 8.1 percent from 8 percent in the fourth quarter.

At 2.00 am ET, the UK Nationwide house price data is due. House prices are forecast to rise 13.7 percent on year in June, faster than the 10.9 percent increase in May.

At 2.45 am ET, the French statistical office Insee is scheduled to issue monthly consumer confidence survey results. The consumer sentiment index is forecast to rise to 100 in June from 97 in May.

At 3.00 am ET, Sweden's economic tendency survey data is due.

In the meantime, flash consumer prices and retail sales figures are due from Spain. EU harmonized inflation is seen unchanged at 2.4 percent in June.

At 4.30 am ET, the Bank of England is set to release mortgage approvals data for May. The number of mortgages approved in May is forecast to fall to 85,900 from 86,920 in April.

At 5.00 am ET, European Commission is slated to release euro area economic confidence survey data. The economic sentiment index is seen rising to 116.5 in June from 114.5 in May.

At 8.00 am ET, Germany's flash consumer price data is due. Consumer price inflation is forecast to ease to 2.3 percent in June from 2.5 percent in May.

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IFX Gertrude
06-30-2021, 06:01 AM
UK SHOP PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL IN JUNE: BRC

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UK shop prices continued to fall in June, data from the British Retail Consortium showed on Wednesday.

The shop price index slid 0.7 percent year-on-year in June, after easing 0.6 percent in May. Non-food prices were down 1 percent in June.

Non-food prices, particularly for fashion, remained deflationary as businesses tried to prolong the recent pickup in consumer spend, Helen Dickinson, chief executive at BRC, said.

Food prices also fell, which is a testament to supermarkets battling to keep prices low for their customers.

The fact that shop prices remain in negative territory despite the recent rise in CPI is indicative of the competitive retail landscape in the UK and keeping prices low for as long as possible is good news for shoppers, said Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ.

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IFX Gertrude
07-01-2021, 07:01 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE UNEMPLOYMENT, FACTORY PMI DATA DUE

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Unemployment and factory Purchasing Managers' survey results from euro area are due on Thursday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's retail sales data for May. Economists expect sales to climb 5 percent on month versus -5.5 percent in April.

Half an hour later, Swiss retail sales and consumer price figures are due. Inflation is seen rising to 0.7 percent in June from 0.6 percent in May.

At 3.00 am ET, Purchasing Managers' survey results are due from Poland and Turkey. Also, unemployment data is due from Austria.

At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit publishes Spain's manufacturing PMI survey results. Economists expect the index to fall marginally to 59.3 in June from 59.4 in May.

At 3.30 am ET, Sweden's central bank announces the result of the monetary policy meeting.

At 3.45 am ET, Italy's manufacturing PMI survey data is due. The factory PMI is seen at 62.2 in June versus 62.3 in the previous month.

Thereafter, final PMI survey reports are due from France and Germany at 3.50 and 3.55 am ET, respectively.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit publishes euro area final manufacturing PMI data. The reading is expected to match the flash estimate of 63.1 in June.

Also, Italy's Istat is scheduled to issue unemployment data for May.

At 4.30 am ET, UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI survey data is due. The score is seen falling to 64.2 in June, as initially estimated, from 65.6 in May.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to issue euro area unemployment data for May. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 8 percent in May.

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IFX Gertrude
07-02-2021, 06:53 AM
AUSTRALIA HOUSING LOAN COMMITMENTS RISE TO RECORD HIGH

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Australia's new housing loan commitments increased to a new high in May, data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Friday.

New housing loan commitments rose 4.9 percent in May to a new high of A$32.6 billion, driven by investor housing loan commitments.

The value of new loan commitments for investor housing rose 13.3 percent to A$9.1 billion, which was the highest level since June 2015.

New loan commitments for owner occupiers grew 1.9 percent to A$23.4 billion, the highest level since the series began.

However, for the third consecutive month there were falls in the value of loan commitments for residential land and the construction of new dwellings, ABS said.

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IFX Gertrude
07-05-2021, 05:38 AM
CHINA SERVICE SECTOR EXPANDS AT SLOWER PACE IN JUNE

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China's service sector expanded at a much slower pace in June as the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases and reduced travel dampened overall new business, survey results published by IHS Markit showed on Monday.

The Caixin services Purchasing Managers' Index fell notably to 50.3 in June from 55.1 in May. Nonetheless, the index has remained above the neutral 50 mark for the fourteenth successive month. The slower upturn in business activity coincided with a softer increase in overall new work. New work from abroad meanwhile increased only marginally.

Employment across the service sector fell for the first time in four months.

On the price front, the survey showed that input price inflation eased to the lowest since September 2020. Services companies lowered their average output charges for the first time in nearly a year in June.

Although services companies remained strongly upbeat regarding the year-ahead outlook for activity, the resurgence of the COVID-19 virus dampened overall optimism in June. Moreover, the degree of positive sentiment slipped to a nine-month low.

The composite output index that measures the overall performance of manufacturing and services, slipped to 50.6 in June from 53.8 in May. The rate of growth was the softest seen in the current 14-month period of expansion and only marginal.

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IFX Gertrude
07-06-2021, 05:59 AM
AUSSIE ADVANCES FURTHER AFTER RBA DECISION

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As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left benchmark lending rate and the 3-year Australian Government bond yield target unchanged at 10 basis points. Following the announcement, the aussie rose further against its major rivals.

The aussie was trading at 83.87 against the yen, 1.5696 against the euro, 0.7566 against the greenback and 1.0670 against the kiwi around 12:35 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
07-07-2021, 05:47 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DATA DUE

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Industrial production from Germany and house prices from the UK are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's industrial production data for May. Economists forecast industrial output to grow 0.5 percent on month, in contrast to a 1 percent fall in April.

At 2.45, foreign trade and current account figures are due from France.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is scheduled to issue industrial and construction output and foreign trade data. Industrial output is seen rising 32.7 percent annually in May.

Half an hour later, UK Halifax house price data is due. Economists forecast house prices to climb 1.2 percent on month in June, slower than the 1.3 percent rise in May.

In the meantime, Statistics Sweden is set to release industrial output and new orders data.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat publishes retail sales for May. Sales had decreased 0.4 percent in April.

At 5.00 am ET, EU economic forecast is due from the European Commission.

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IFX Gertrude
07-08-2021, 06:10 AM
FRANC LITTLE CHANGED AFTER SWISS JOBLESS RATE

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At 1.45 am ET Thursday, Swiss unemployment data has been released. The franc changed little against its major counterparts after the data.

The franc was trading at 0.9247 against the greenback, 119.26 against the yen, 1.0915 against the euro and 1.2750 against the pound around 1:50 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
07-09-2021, 06:34 AM
CHINA CPI SLOWS TO 1.1% ON YEAR IN JUNE

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Consumer prices in China were up 1.1 percent on year in June, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.3 percent, which would have been unchanged from the May reading.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.4 percent - again missing expectations for a flat reading following the 0.2 percent decline a month earlier.

The bureau also said that producer prices were up 8.8 percent on year - in line with expectations and slowing from 9.0 percent in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
07-12-2021, 06:17 AM
AUSTRALIA BUILDING PERMITS SINK 7.1% IN MAY

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The total number of building permits issued in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 7.1 percent on month in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - coming in at 20,163.

That matched expectations following the 5.7 percent decline in April.

On a yearly basis, building permits surged 52.7 percent.

Permits for private sector houses sank 10.3 percent on month but climbed 55.2 percent on year to 13,571. Permits for private sector dwellings excluding houses rose 1.2 percent on month and 53.6 percent on year to 6,374.

The value of total building rose 4.5 percent on month, while the value of total residential building fell 6.7 percent and the value of non-residential building rose 28.5 percent

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IFX Gertrude
07-13-2021, 05:48 AM
AUSTRALIA BUILDING PERMITS SINK 7.1% IN MAY

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Final consumer price figures are due from Germany and France on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news. At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's final consumer prices for June. Consumer price inflation is seen at 2.3 percent, unchanged from the flash estimate.

In the meantime, the Bank of England is slated to issue Financial Policy Committee Summary and Record.

At 2.30 am ET, producer price data is due from Switzerland.

At 2.45 am ET, the French statistical office Insee publishes final inflation figures for June. Economists forecast consumer price inflation to rise to 1.5 percent, as initially estimated, from 1.4 percent in May.

At 3.00 am ET, industrial production and retail sales from Turkey and consumer prices from the Czech Republic are due. The Czech inflation is seen at 2.7 percent in June versus 2.9 percent in May.

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IFX Gertrude
07-14-2021, 05:54 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK INFLATION DATA DUE

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Consumer and producer prices data from the UK is due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK consumer and producer prices for June. Inflation is seen rising to 2.2 percent from 2.1 percent in May. Factory gate inflation is forecast to rise to 4.8 percent from 4.6 percent a month ago.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's statistical office INE is scheduled to issue final consumer prices for June. The final CPI is forecast to climb 2.6 percent annually, in line with flash estimate.

Half an hour later, Statistics Sweden publishes consumer prices for June. Economists expect inflation to ease to 1.3 percent from 1.8 percent in May.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is set to publish monthly industrial production report. Eurozone industrial output is forecast to fall 0.2 percent on month, reversing a 0.8 percent rise in April.

At 7.00 am ET, Turkey central bank announces its monetary policy decision. The bank is expected to hold one-week repo rate at 19.00 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
07-15-2021, 06:42 AM
JAPAN TERTIARY ACTIVITY FALLS IN MAY

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Japan's tertiary activity declined for the second straight month in May, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Thursday.

The tertiary activity index fell 2.7 percent month-on-month in May, following a 0.8 percent decrease in April.

Among the individual components, medical, health care and welfare, living and amusement-related services, wholesale trade, information and communications, transport and postal activities, finance and insurance, retail trade, and goods rental and leasing declined in May.

Meanwhile, business-related services, real estate, flat industry, and electricity, gas, heat supply and water increased.

On a yearly basis, tertiary activity increased 10.3 percent in May, following a 9.9 percent rise in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
07-16-2021, 06:27 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE FINAL INFLATION DATA DUE

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Final consumer prices and foreign trade figures from the euro area are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association is set to release new car registrations data for June.

At 3.00 am ET, harmonized consumer price figures are due from Austria and Slovakia.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat publishes external trade data for May.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to issue euro area final consumer prices and foreign trade figures. According to flash estimate, inflation eased to 1.9 percent in June from 2 percent in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
07-19-2021, 06:02 AM
NEW ZEALAND SERVICES INDEX DATA DUE ON MONDAY

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New Zealand will on Monday see June results for the Performance of Services Index from BusinessNZ, highlighting an exceptionally light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In May, the index score was 56.1 - well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

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IFX Gertrude
07-20-2021, 06:08 AM
JAPAN OVERALL INFLATION CLIMBS 0.2% ON YEAR IN JUNE

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Overall consumer prices in Japan were up 0.2 percent on year in June, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday.

That was in line with expectations following the 0.1 percent decline in May.

Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, also gained an annual 0.2 percent. That too matched estimates following the 0.1 percent increase in the previous month.

Individually, prices were higher for food, housing, fuel, furniture, clothing, education and recreation; they were lower for medical care and transportation.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall inflation was up 0.3 percent and core consumer prices rose 0.1 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
07-21-2021, 05:19 AM
SOUTH KOREA PRODUCER PRICES JUMP 6.4% ON YEAR IN JUNE

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Producer prices in South Korea jumped 6.4 percent on year in June, the Bank of Korea said on Wednesday - slowing from 6.6 percent in May.

Individually, prices for agriculture, forestry and marine products rose 10.7 percent on year, while manufacturing products were up 10.8 percent, utilities fell 3.1 percent and services gained 2.3 percent.

On a monthly basis, producer prices added 0.4 percent - down from 0.5 percent in the previous month.

Individually, prices for agriculture, forestry and marine products rose 0.3 percent on month, while manufacturing products were up 0.6 percent, utilities rose 0.3 percent and services gained 0.2 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
07-22-2021, 05:08 AM
INDONESIA INTEREST RATE DECISION DUE ON THURSDAY

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The central bank in Indonesia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The central bank is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 3.50 percent, its deposit facility rate steady at 2.75 percent and its lending facility rate unchanged at 4.25 percent.

Taiwan will release June figures for unemployment; in May, the jobless rate was 4.14 percent

Hong Kong will see June numbers for consumer prices; in May, the annual inflation rate was 1.0 percent.

Thailand will provide June figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In May, imports were up 63.54 percent on year and exports jumped an annual 41.59 percent for a trade surplus of $0.8 billion.

Finally, the markets in Japan are closed Thursday (Marine Day) and Friday (Sports Day) and will re-open on Monday.

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IFX Gertrude
07-23-2021, 06:02 AM
UK CONSUMER SENTIMENT IMPROVES IN JULY: GFK

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UK consumer sentiment strengthened more-than-expected in July to reach ahead of its March 2020 pre-lockdown level, survey data from the market research group GfK showed on Friday.

The consumer sentiment index rose to -7 in July from -9 in the previous month. The expected reading was -8.

"This means it has now held firm or improved for six months in a row," Joe Staton, client strategy director GfK, said. "What happens across the remaining summer months will frame consumer confidence for the rest of 2021 and beyond," Staton added.

Among components of the consumer sentiment index, two measures were up in comparison to June, two measures were down and one stayed the same in July.

The assessment of the past personal financial situation fell to -1 from zero in June, while the outlook for the personal financial situation held steady at 11.

Consumers' view about the past general economic situation climbed to -43 from -47, while expectations for the general economic conditions worsened to -5 from -2.

At the same time, the major purchase index rose to +2 from -5 a month ago.

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IFX Gertrude
07-26-2021, 08:08 AM
TURKEY MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RISES IN JULY

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Turkey's manufacturing capacity utilization rate rose in July, figures from the Turkish central bank showed on Monday.

The capacity utilization rate rose to 76.7 percent in July from 76.6 percent in June.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the capacity utilization rate increased to 76.4 percent in July from 76.3 percent in the prior month.

Separate data from the central bank showed that the manufacturing confidence index rose to 114.8 in July from 113.0 in June.

The seasonally adjusted manufacturing confidence index increased to 112.1 in July from 109.8 in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
07-27-2021, 06:44 AM
SOUTH KOREA GDP CLIMBS 0.7% ON QUARTER IN Q2

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South Korea's gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2021, the Bank of Korea said in Tuesday's advance estimate.

That was in line with expectations following the 1.7 percent growth in the previous three months.

On an annualized basis, GDP was up 5.9 percent - just shy or forecasts for an increase of 6.0 percent but up from 1.9 percent in the three months prior.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased by 0.6 percent compared to the previous quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
07-28-2021, 05:41 AM
AUSTRALIA INFLATION DATA DUE ON WEDNESDAY

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Australia will on Wednesday see Q2 figures for consumer prices, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Overall inflation is expected to rise 0.7 percent on quarter and 3.8 percent on year after gaining 0.6 percent on quarter and 1.1 percent on year in the three months prior.

The RBA's trimmed mean is called higher by 0.5 percent on quarter and 1.6 percent on year, accelerating from 0.3 percent on quarter and 1.1 percent in year in Q1. The RBA's weighted median is tipped to rise 0.5 percent on quarter and 1.7 percent on year, up from 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.3 percent on year in Q1.

Japan will see final May results for its leading and coincident indexes; the previous readings were 103.8 and 95.3, respectively.

Thailand will provide June numbers for industrial production, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 18.75 percent following the 25.84 percent spike in May.

Finally, the markets in Thailand are closed on Wednesday in observance of King Maha's Birthday; they will re-open on Thursday.

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IFX Gertrude
07-29-2021, 05:43 AM
AUSTRALIA EXPORT PRICES SPIKE 13.2% ON QUARTER IN Q2

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Export prices in Australia were up 13.2 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - accelerating from 11.2 percent in the previous three months.

On a yearly basis, export prices surged 26.0 percent.

The main contributors to the rise were: metalliferous ores and metal scrap (+18.5 percent), driven by the demand for iron ore from China and constrained global supply; coal, coke and briquettes (+15.6 percent), reflecting the demand for thermal coal for household power production in Asia; and gas, natural and manufactured (+14.6 percent), due to the oil-linked contracts capturing the continued rise in oil prices in early 2021.

Import prices rose 1.9 percent on quarter and fell 2.5 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
07-30-2021, 05:43 AM
JAPAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT JUMPS 6.2% IN JUNE

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Industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 6.2 percent on month in June, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.

That beat expectations for an increase of 5.0 percent following the downwardly revised 6.5 percent contraction in May (originally -5.9 percent). On a yearly basis, industrial production spiked 22.6 percent - roughly in line with expectations following the 21.1 percent gain in the previous month.

Upon the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of industrial production, saying that it is picking up.

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IFX Gertrude
08-02-2021, 06:43 AM
JAPAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN 17 MONTHS

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Japan's consumer confidence rose to the highest level in seventeen months in July, data from the Cabinet Office showed on Monday.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the consumer confidence index increased to 37.5 in July from 37.4 in June.

The latest index was the highest since February last year, when it was 38.4.

Among the four sub-indexes of the consumer confidence index, the index for overall livelihood rose to 39.0 in July. The indicators measuring the income growth increased to 37.9 and employment grew to 35.1.

Meanwhile, the index reflecting households' willingness to buy durable consumer goods fell to 37.8.

The latest survey was conducted on July 15 among 8,400 households.

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IFX Gertrude
08-03-2021, 05:42 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: SPAIN UNEMPLOYMENT DATA DUE

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Unemployment from Spain and producer prices from euro area are due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's monthly unemployment data for July is due from the labor ministry. Unemployment declined by a record 166,911 in June.

In the meantime, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to issue quarterly consumer confidence survey results.

Also, consumer and producer prices are due from Turkey. Inflation is forecast to climb further to 18.50 percent in July from 17.53 percent in June.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is set to issue euro area producer prices for June. Economists expect producer price inflation to rise to 10.3 percent from 9.6 percent in May.

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IFX Gertrude
08-04-2021, 05:37 AM
HONG KONG PRIVATE SECTOR PMI EASES TO 51.3 - MARKIT

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The private sector in Hong Kong continued to expand in July, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from Markit Economics revealed on Wednesday with a PMI score of 51.3.

That's down from 51.4, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The Output and New Orders indices both expanded in July, signaling the fourth consecutive month of growth across both gauges. Rates of expansion also improved in July with panelists noting better economic and consumer confidence, given the control of the COVID-19 virus, driving the increase in activity.

Foreign demand for Hong Kong SAR private sector goods and services however eased for a second straight month and at a faster pace compared to June.

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IFX Gertrude
08-05-2021, 06:17 AM
00EURO MIXED AHEAD OF GERMAN FACTORY ORDERS

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At 2.00 am ET Thursday, Germany factory orders data is due from Destatis. Economists expect orders to grow 1.9 percent on month in June, reversing a 3.7 percent fall in May.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While it rose against the yen, it held steady against the rest of major rivals.

The euro was worth 129.79 against the yen, 1.0738 against the franc, 0.8519 against the pound and 1.1836 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
08-06-2021, 05:45 AM
EURO MIXED AHEAD OF GERMAN FACTORY ORDERS

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At 2.00 am ET Thursday, Germany factory orders data is due from Destatis. Economists expect orders to grow 1.9 percent on month in June, reversing a 3.7 percent fall in May.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While it rose against the yen, it held steady against the rest of major rivals.

The euro was worth 129.79 against the yen, 1.0738 against the franc, 0.8519 against the pound and 1.1836 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
08-09-2021, 06:03 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY FOREIGN TRADE DATA DUE

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Foreign trade data from Germany is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 1.45 am ET, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to publish unemployment data for July. The jobless rate is seen falling to a seasonally adjusted 3 percent from 3.1 percent in June.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's external trade data for June. Exports are forecast to grow 0.4 percent on month, following a 0.3 percent rise in May. Meanwhile, growth in imports is expected to ease to 0.5 percent from 3.4 percent.

In the meantime, industrial production data is due from Norway.

At 5.00 am ET, the Hellenic Statistical Authority is slated to publish Greece consumer prices and industrial production data.

At 6.00 am ET, Ireland's industrial production and unemployment figures are due.

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IFX Gertrude
08-10-2021, 05:42 AM
JAPAN HAS Y905.1 BILLION CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS IN JUNE

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Japan posted a current account surplus of 905.1 billion yen in June, the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for a surplus of 779.8 billion yen following the 1,979.7 billion yen surplus in May.

Exports were up 47.7 percent on year at 7,137 billion yen and imports rose an annual 33.8 percent to 6,488 billion yen for a trade surplus of 648.5 billion yen.

The capital account showed a deficit of 36.7 billion yen, while the financial account had a shortfall of 637.0 billion yen.

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IFX Gertrude
08-11-2021, 06:00 AM
SINGAPORE GDP JUMPS 14.7% ON YEAR IN Q2

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Singapore's gross domestic product climbed 14.7 percent on year in the second quarter of 2021, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in Wednesday's final report,

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 14.2 percent following the 1.3 percent gain in the previous three months.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, gross domestic product contracted 1.8 percent after rising 3.1 percent in the three months prior.

Upon the release of the data, the MTI upgraded its GDP forecast for 2021 to 6 to 7 percent - up from 4 to 6 percent previously.

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IFX Gertrude
08-12-2021, 05:41 AM
JAPAN PRODUCER PRICES SPIKE 5.6% ON YEAR IN JULY

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Producer prices in Japan were up 5.6 percent on year in July, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday - well above expectations for 5.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the June reading.

On a monthly basis, producer prices spiked 1.1 percent - again well above estimates for 0.5 percent and up from 0.6 percent in the previous month.

The export price index rose 0.5 percent on month in July, the bank said, while the import index climbed 1.8 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
08-13-2021, 06:02 AM
FRANCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS SLIGHTLY IN Q2

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French unemployment rate dropped marginally in the second quarter, data released by the statistical office Insee showed Friday.

The ILO jobless rate dropped to 8 percent in the second quarter from 8.1 percent in the first quarter. The rate was forecast to fall to 7.9 percent.

The number of unemployed people decreased 16,000 from the previous quarter to 2.4 million in the second quarter.

The unemployment rate among youth aged between 15 and 24 came in at 19.8 percent, down from 20.6 percent a quarter ago.

On average in the second quarter, the employment rate of people aged 15 to 64 increased by 0.3 points to 66.9 percent, after remaining stable at the beginning of 2021.

Employment returned to its pre-crisis level and stood at its highest level since INSEE began measuring it on a quarterly basis in 2003.

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IFX Gertrude
08-16-2021, 06:13 AM
JAPAN GDP JUMPS 1.3% ON YEAR IN Q2

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Japan's gross domestic product expanded an annualized 1.3 percent on year in the second quarter of 2021, the Cabinet Office said in Monday's preliminary report.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 0.7 percent following the 3.9 percent contraction in the first quarter.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent - again exceeding expectations for 0.2 percent following the 1.0 percent drop in the three months prior.

Capital expenditure gained 1.7 percent on quarter, matching expectations after sinking 1.2 percent in the previous three months.

External demand was down 0.3 percent on quarter versus forecasts for a fall of 0.1 percent after slipping 0.2 percent in Q1.

Private consumption climbed 0.8 percent on quarter, beating forecasts for a loss of 0.1 percent after sinking 1.5 percent in the previous three months.

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IFX Gertrude
08-17-2021, 05:46 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK UNEMPLOYMENT DATA DUE

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Unemployment data from the UK is due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK unemployment data. The jobless rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.8 percent in three months to June.

At 3.00 am ET, GDP data is due from Hungary. The economy is projected to grow 17.1 percent on year, reversing a 2.1 percent fall in the first quarter.

Half an hour later, GDP, consumer spending and foreign trade figures are due from the Netherlands.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is set to issue euro area revised GDP data and construction output figures. The economy is forecast to grow 2 percent sequentially in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous estimate.

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IFX Gertrude
08-18-2021, 06:56 AM
NEW ZEALAND PRODUCER PRICES INPUT RISES IN Q2

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New Zealand's producer prices input increased in the second quarter, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.

Producer prices input rose 3.0 percent sequentially in the second quarter.

Producer price outputs grew 2.6 percent on quarter.

"As we saw last quarter, low lake levels and gas supply constraints continue to push electricity and gas prices higher," business prices delivery manager, Bryan Downes said.

Farm expense prices were up 1.4 percent on quarter and capital goods prices gained 2.9 percent in the second quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
08-19-2021, 06:38 AM
FRANC LITTLE CHANGED AFTER SWISS TRADE DATA

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At 2.00 am ET Thursday, foreign trade figures for Switzerland have been released.

The franc changed little against its major rivals after the data. The franc was trading at 119.77 against the yen, 0.9193 against the greenback, 1.0731 against the euro and 1.2601 against the pound around 2:05 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
08-20-2021, 06:55 AM
NEW ZEALAND CREDIT CARD SPENDING DECLINES IN JULY

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New Zealand credit card spending declined for the second month in July, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Friday.

Credit card spending decreased 0.6 percent on a monthly basis in July, following a 1.0 percent decline in June. Spending declined for second straight month.

On a yearly basis, growth in credit card spending rose to 6.9 percent in July from 6.4 percent in the previous month.

Domestic card billing grew 1.9 percent on month after falling 3.7 percent a month ago.

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IFX Gertrude
08-23-2021, 06:24 AM
AUSTRALIA MANUFACTURING PMI SLOWS IN AUGUST - MARKIT

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The manufacturing sector in Australia continued to expand in August, albeit at a much slower rate, the latest survey from Markit Economics showed on Monday with a 14-month low manufacturing PMI score of 51.7.

That's down from 56.9 in July, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

New orders and output both fell into contraction territory, ending the 13-month growth streaks across both indices. While the lingering disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic affected both demand and production, firms also reported that supply issues had constrained output. Indeed, suppliers' delivery times continued to lengthen, and at the most severe pace since April 2020.

Price pressures eased slightly in August, though both input costs and output charges continued to increase at rates well above their respective survey averages. Firms were generally cautious with regards to their input inventories, which were broadly unchanged from July, but held a slightly more positive view towards output in the next 12 months.

The survey also showed that the services PMI fell from 44.2 in July to 43.3 in August, while the composite slipped from 45.2 in July to 43.5 this month.

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IFX Gertrude
08-24-2021, 06:27 AM
NEW ZEALAND RETAIL SALES RISE 3.3% IN Q2

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The total volume of retail sales in New Zealand was up a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2021, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - accelerating from 2.8 percent in the three months prior.

The total value of retail sales rose 4.0 percent on quarter (NZ$1.1 billion).

By industry, the largest movements were: electrical and electronic goods retailing - up 6.9 percent; food and beverage services - up 5.6 percent; motor vehicle and parts retailing - up 3.1 percent; pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing - up 7.5 percent; and accommodation - up 11.4 percent.

On a yearly basis, retail sales surged 33.3 percent after gaining 6.6 percent in the previous three months.

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IFX Gertrude
08-25-2021, 06:12 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Business confidence data from Germany is due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE publishes producer prices for July. Prices had increased 15.3 percent annually in June.

At 4.00 am ET, German ifo business confidence survey results are due. The business sentiment index is seen falling to 100.4 in August from 100.8 in the previous month. At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases monthly Distributive Trades survey results for August. The retail sales balance is seen falling to 20 from 23 in July.

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IFX Gertrude
08-26-2021, 06:18 AM
EURO MIXED AHEAD OF GERMAN GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

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At 2.00 am ET Thursday, Germany's Gfk consumer confidence survey results are due. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index is expected to fall to 0.7 in September from 0.3 in August.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While the currency rose against the pound, it held steady against the rest of major rivals.

The euro was worth 129.44 against the yen, 1.0759 against the franc, 0.8555 against the pound and 1.1769 against the greenback as of 1:55 am ET

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IFX Gertrude
08-27-2021, 06:50 AM
EURO LITTLE CHANGED AFTER GERMAN IMPORT PRICE INDEX

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At 2 am ET Friday, German import price index for July has been released. After the data, the euro changed little against its major rivals.

The euro was trading at 129.38 against the yen, 1.0780 against the franc, 0.8587 against the pound and 1.1764 against the greenback around 2:05 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
08-30-2021, 05:49 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Economic sentiment data from euro area and consumer prices from Germany are due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE releases flash consumer price data for August. EU harmonized inflation is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.9 percent.

In the meantime, Swiss KOF leading indicator is due. Economists forecast the index to fall to 125.0 in August from 129.8 in the previous month.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurozone economic confidence survey results are due. The economic confidence index is expected to fall to 117.9 in August from 119 in the previous month. At 8.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to release Germany's flash inflation data. Harmonized inflation is seen rising to 3.4 percent in August from 3.1 percent in July.

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IFX Gertrude
08-31-2021, 05:51 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT DATA DUE

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Unemployment from Germany and flash consumer prices from euro area are due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's import prices and unemployment reports. Economists forecast import prices to gain 13.6 percent annually in July after rising 12.9 percent in June.

At 2.45 am ET, France Insee publishes GDP, flash consumer prices and household spending data. Consumer price inflation is seen rising to 1.7 percent in August from 1.2 percent in July.

At 3.55 am ET, Germany's unemployment data is due. The jobless rate is forecast to fall to 5.6 percent in August from 5.7 percent in July.

At 4.00 am ET, GDP data is due from Italy and Poland. Italy's final GDP is expected to grow 2.7 percent sequentially in the second quarter.

Half an hour later, the Bank of England publishes mortgage approvals data for July. The number of mortgages approved in July is seen at 79,000 versus 81,340 in June.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat publishes euro area flash consumer prices. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.7 percent in August from 2.2 percent in July.

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IFX Gertrude
09-01-2021, 06:06 AM
PHILIPPINES MANUFACTURING SECTOR FALLS INTO CONTRACTION - MARKIT

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The manufacturing sector in the Philippines fell into contraction in August, the latest report from Markit Economics showed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 46.4.

That's down from 50.4 in July, and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The re-introduction of Enhanced Quarantine Measures (ECQ) in Metro Manilla forced factory and business closures in one of the Philippines largest manufacturing regions in August. Output and new orders fell sharply, although the rates of decline were not as severe as those seen during the first lockdown in March-May 2020.

Nevertheless, weak demand led to cost saving efforts and the consequent reduction in inventory levels and employment in August. Meanwhile, virus-related restrictions weighed heavily on lead times with port congestions and material shortages again a key theme in the latest survey period.

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IFX Gertrude
09-02-2021, 05:09 AM
AUSTRALIA HAS A$12.117 BILLION TRADE SURPLUS IN JULY

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Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$12.117 billion in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That beat forecasts for a surplus of A$10.2 billion and was up from A$10.496 billion in June.

Exports climbed A$2.090 billion or 5.0 percent on month to A$45.951 billion, up from 4.0 percent a month earlier.

Imports were up A$1.087 billion or 3.0 percent on month to A$33.834 billion, accelerating from 1 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
09-03-2021, 06:11 AM
AUSTRALIA RETAIL SALES SINK 2.7% IN JULY

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The total value of retail sales in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent on month in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Friday - coming in at A$29.778 billion.

That was in line with expectations following the 1.8 percent decline in June.

Individually, food retailing gained 2.3 percent on month, while household goods fell 2.2 percent, clothing tumbled 15.4 percent, department store sales dropped 11.4 percent and cafes and restaurants sank 12.3 percent.

Total online sales were A$3.724 billion in July, in seasonally adjusted terms. This was the highest level of monthly online sales in the history of this series.

On a yearly basis, retail sales fell 3.1 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
09-06-2021, 05:32 AM
THAI INFLATION DATA DUE ON MONDAY

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Thailand will on Monday release August figures for consumer prices, headlining a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In July, overall inflation was up 0.45 percent on year and core CPI rose an annual 0.14 percent.

New Zealand will see August results for job advertisements from ANZ; in July, job ads were down 0.5 percent on month.

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IFX Gertrude
09-07-2021, 06:27 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY ECONOMIC SENTIMENT, IP DATA DUE

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Economic confidence and industrial production reports from Germany are due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 1.45 am ET, Swiss unemployment data is due for August. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's industrial production data for July. Economists forecast output to grow 0.9 percent on month, in contrast to a 1.3 percent fall in June.

In the meantime, UK Halifax house price data is due. Monthly house price inflation is forecast to rise to 1.1 percent in August from 0.4 percent in July.

Also, foreign trade from Finland and industrial output from Norway are due.

At 3.00 am ET, retail sales from the Czech Republic and industrial production from Hungary are due. Sales are forecast to grow 4.9 percent on year in July, following June's 7.2 percent increase.

At 5.00 am ET, Germany ZEW economic confidence survey results are due. The economic sentiment index is forecast to fall to 30.0 in September from 40.4 in the previous month.

Also, Eurostat is slated to issue euro area revised quarterly GDP data. The statistical office is expected to confirm 2 percent sequential growth for the second quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
09-08-2021, 06:26 AM
JAPAN HAS Y1.910 TRILLION CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS

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Japan had a current account surplus of 1.910 trillion yen in July, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday - up 24.5 percent on year.

That was shy of expectations for a surplus of 2.30 trillion following the 905.1 billion yen surplus in June.

Exports were up 37.5 percent on year at 7.220 trillion yen, while imports jumped an annual 29.3 percent to 6.598 trillion yen for a trade surplus of 622.3 billion yen.

The capital account showed a deficit of 5.0 billion yen following the 36.7 billion yen shortfall a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
09-09-2021, 07:05 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: ECB MONETARY POLICY DECISION DUE

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The monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank is due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

The bank is expected to signal a gradual reduction in asset purchases and to keep its key interest rates unchanged. The monetary policy statement is due at 7.45 am ET.

ECB President Christine Lagarde holds her customary press conference at 8.30 am ET. The ECB staff macroeconomic projections is also due. The bank is widely expected to raise its inflation and growth forecasts for 2021.

Other economic reports due for the day are as follows:

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's foreign trade data for July. Economists forecast exports to grow 0.5 percent on month and imports to rise 0.2 percent. In the meantime, external trade figures are due from Romania and Lithuania.

At 5.00 am ET, unemployment data for June is due from Greece. The rate stood at 15.9 percent in May.

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IFX Gertrude
09-10-2021, 06:00 AM
NEW ZEALAND ELECTRONIC CARD SPENDING DATA DUE ON FRIDAY

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New Zealand will on Friday release August figures for electronic retail card spending, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Spending is expected to have risen 1.7 percent on month and 11.4 percent on year after gaining 0.6 percent on month and 4.7 percent on year in July.

Australia will see consumer inflation expectations for September; in August, the forecast suggested an increase of 3.3 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
09-13-2021, 06:07 AM
JAPAN LARGE COMPANIES' BUSINESS SENTIMENT TURNS POSITIVE

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Confidence among Japanese larger companies turned positive in the third quarter, survey data from the Ministry of Finance showed on Monday.

The Business Survey Index, or BSI, of larger companies climbed to +3.3 in the September quarter from -4.7 in the June quarter.

The confidence index for the fourth quarter is forecast to rise to 6.8.

The confidence index of manufacturers came in at 7.0 versus -1.4 a quarter ago. Likewise, sentiment among non-manufacturers improved to 1.5 from -6.2 in the third quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
09-14-2021, 06:16 AM
SOUTH KOREA EXPORT PRICES JUMP 18.6% ON YEAR

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Export prices in South Korea were up 18.6 percent on year in August, the Bank of Korea said on Tuesday - following the 17.4 percent increase in July.

Export prices for manufacturing products advanced 18.6 percent on year and export prices for agricultural, forestry and marine products gained 9.6 percent.

Import prices jumped an annual 21.6 percent, up from 19.5 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, export prices rose 1.0 percent and import prices gained 0.6 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
09-15-2021, 06:18 AM
POUND FIRMS AFTER U.K. CPI, PPI

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At 2.00 am ET Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics has published UK consumer and producer price data for August.

The pound rose further against its major counterparts after the data. The pound was trading at 1.3820 against the greenback, 151.43 against the yen, 1.2714 against the franc and 0.8544 against the euro around 2:02 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
09-16-2021, 06:35 AM
DUTCH JOBLESS RATE RISES IN AUGUST

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The Dutch jobless rate rose marginally in August, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday.

The ILO jobless rate for the 15-75 year old age group fell a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent in August from 3.1 percent in July.

The number of unemployed persons rose to 301,000 in August from 289,000 in the preceding month, the agency said.

The unemployment rate among youth aged between 15 and 24 years, increased to 7.4 percent in August from 7.3 percent in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
09-17-2021, 05:42 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK RETAIL SALES DATA DUE

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Retail sales data from the UK is due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to issue UK retail sales data for August. Sales are forecast to grow 0.5 percent from July, when the volume was down 2.5 percent.

At 3.00 am ET, August consumer price data is due from Austria. Consumer prices were up 2.9 percent annually in July.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank publishes euro area current account data for July. In the meantime, corporate sector wages data is due from Poland.

At 4.30 am ET, the Bank of England/Kantar Inflation Attitudes Survey results are due.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is set to release euro area final consumer price data. Inflation is seen at 3 percent in August, unchanged from the preliminary estimate, but up from 2.2 percent in July.

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IFX Gertrude
09-20-2021, 06:37 AM
NEW ZEALAND SERVICES INDEX DATA DUE ON MONDAY

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New Zealand will on Monday see August results for the Performance of Services Index from BusinessNZ, headlining a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In July, the index score was 57.9.

Hong Kong will release August figures for consumer prices; in July, inflation was up 3.7 percent on year.

Finally, the markets are closed on Monday in Japan (Respect for the Aged Day), South Korea (Chuseok Festival) and Taiwan and China (Mid-Autumn Festival). Japan returns to action on Tuesday, while Taiwan and China are back on Wednesday and South Korea returns on Thursday.

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IFX Gertrude
09-21-2021, 06:51 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE DATA DUE

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Public sector finances data from the UK is due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK public sector finance data for August. The budget deficit is seen at GBP 15.6 billion versus GBP 10.4 billion in July.

In the meantime, Swiss foreign trade data is due for August.

At 3.30 am ET, Riksbank is set to announce its interest rate decision. The bank is expected to hold its key rate at zero percent. Also, Sweden unemployment data is due. At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases UK Industrial Trends survey results. The order book balance is seen at 15 percent in September versus 18 percent in August.

At 8.00 am ET, Hungary's central bank announces its interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to hike its key rate to 1.75 percent from 1.50 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
09-22-2021, 06:28 AM
JAPAN INTEREST RATE DECISION DUE ON WEDNESDAY

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The Bank of Japan will wrap up its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at -0.1 percent, although other forms of stimulus may be introduced.

Australia will see August results for the leading economic index from Westpac Bank; in July, the index slipped 0.12 percent on month.

Taiwan will release unemployment data for August; in July, the jobless rate was 4.36 percent.

China will provide updated prime rates for its one-year and five-year loans; previously, they were 3.85 percent and 4.65 percent, respectively.

Finally, the markets in South Korea (Chuseok Festival) and Hong Kong (Mid-Autumn Festival) are closed on Wednesday; both return to action on Thursday.

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IFX Gertrude
09-24-2021, 07:16 AM
FINLAND PRODUCER PRICE INFLATION INCREASES IN AUGUST

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Finland's producer price inflation accelerated in August, data from Statistics Finland showed on Tuesday.

Producer prices increased 15.5 percent year-on-year in August, after a 14.8 percent rise in July.

The increase in the producer prices for manufactured products was particularly attributable to risen prices of oil products, basic metals and timber from August last year.

Import prices grew 15.7 percent annually in August and export prices rose by 17.3 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, producer prices rose 1.4 percent in August, after a 3.4 percent increase in the prior month.

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IFX Gertrude
09-27-2021, 06:23 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: EUROZONE MONETARY AGGREGATES DATA DUE

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Monetary aggregates data from the euro area is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Denmark is scheduled to issue retail sales data for August. Sales had increased 4.8 percent annually in July.

At 3.30 am ET, Sweden's household lending data is due for August. Lending had advanced 6.3 percent annually in July.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is slated to issue monetary aggregates for August. The euro area M3 money supply is forecast to climb 7.8 percent on year after rising 7.6 percent in July. In the meantime, Italy's non-EU trade data is due for August. The trade surplus totaled EUR 6.85 billion in July.

At 7.45 am ET, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to attend the hearing before the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

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IFX Gertrude
09-28-2021, 06:08 AM
DUTCH PRODUCER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES IN SEPTEMBER

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Dutch producer confidence improves in September, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday.

The producer sentiment index rose to 11.1 in September from 9.6 in August. This was above the average score of 0.5 seen over the past twenty years.

Producers opinions about the order position and stocks of finished goods remained hardly unchanged, the agency said.

There were more entrepreneurs who expected their production to increase in the coming three months, the agency said.

The producers in the textile and clothing industry were more positive in September.

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IFX Gertrude
09-29-2021, 07:15 AM
EURO LITTLE CHANGED AFTER GERMAN IMPORT PRICES

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At 2.00 am ET Wednesday, Destatis has released Germany's import prices for August. The euro changed little against its major rivals after the data. The euro was trading at 1.1680 against the greenback, 130.24 against the yen, 0.8624 against the pound and 1.0856 against the franc around 2:04 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
09-30-2021, 06:43 AM
POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER U.K. GDP DATA

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At 2.00 am ET Thursday, the Office for National Statistics has released UK final GDP data for the second quarter. After the data, the pound changed little against its major rivals.

The pound was trading at 1.3435 against the greenback, 150.34 against the yen, 1.2549 against the franc and 0.8630 against the euro around 2:02 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
10-01-2021, 06:06 AM
AUSTRALIA HOME LOANS SINK 6.6% IN AUGUST

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The value of owner-occupied home loans in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 6.6 percent on month in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Friday - coming in at A$21.26 billion.

That missed forecasts for a decline of 2.0 percent following the 0.4 percent drop in July.

Investment lending was up 1.5 percent on month at A$9.49 billion, slowing from 1.8 percent in the previous month. So overall lending was at A$30.76 billion, down 4.3 percent on month.

On a yearly basis, overall lending was up 47.4 percent, owner-occupied lending jumped 33.5 percent and investment lending skyrocketed 92.2 percent.

Fixed term loans were down 2.5 percent on month and up 38.9 percent on year at A$1.93 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
10-04-2021, 06:54 AM
FRANC LITTLE CHANGED AFTER SWISS CPI AND RETAIL SALES

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At 2.30 am ET Monday, the Federal Statistical Office has released Swiss consumer inflation and retail sales. The franc changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The franc was trading at 0.9303 against the greenback, 119.36 against the yen, 1.2606 against the pound and 1.0794 against the euro around 2:35 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
10-05-2021, 06:16 AM
AUSTRALIA CENTRAL BANK KEEPS POLICY UNCHANGED

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Australia's central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged on Tuesday, as widely expected.

The policy board of the Reserve Bank of Australia headed by Governor Philip Lowe decided to leave its cash rate unchanged at a record low of 0.10 percent.

The board maintained the target of 10 basis points for the April 2024 Australian Government bond. The board also voted to continue with the purchase of government securities at the rate of A$4 billion a week until at least mid February 2022.

The bank repeated that it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 percent target range. The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024.

Policymakers observed that housing credit growth has picked up due to stronger demand for credit by both owner-occupiers and investors. It is important that lending standards are maintained and that loan serviceability buffers are appropriate.

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IFX Gertrude
10-06-2021, 06:22 AM
EURO MIXED AHEAD OF GERMAN FACTORY ORDERS

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At 2.00 am ET Wednesday, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's factory orders data for August. Economists forecast orders to fall 2.1 percent on month, reversing a 3.4 percent rise in July.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While it fell against the greenback, it rose against the rest of major rivals.

The euro was worth 1.1583 against the greenback, 129.46 against the yen, 0.8514 against the pound and 1.0770 against the franc as of 4:55 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
10-07-2021, 06:15 AM
POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER U.K. HALIFAX HOUSE PRICE DATA

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UK Halifax house price data for September has been released at 2.00 am ET Thursday. The pound changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3577 against the greenback, 151.36 against the yen, 1.2598 against the franc and 0.8507 against the euro around 2:04 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
10-08-2021, 06:12 AM
EURO MIXED AHEAD OF GERMAN TRADE DATA

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At 2.00 am ET Friday, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's foreign trade data for August. Exports are forecast to grow 0.5 percent on month, the same rate as posted in July.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While it rose against the pound and the franc, it fell against the greenback. Against the yen, it held steady.

The euro was worth 1.1549 against the greenback, 129.22 against the yen, 0.8488 against the pound and 1.0738 against the franc at 1:55 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
10-11-2021, 06:26 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: ITALY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT DATA DUE

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Industrial production data from Italy is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway releases consumer and producer prices for September. Inflation is forecast to rise to 4 percent from 3.4 percent in August. In the meantime, foreign trade and GDP figures are due.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is scheduled to issue consumer prices for September. Economists expect inflation to advance to 4.5 percent from 4.1 percent in August.

In the meantime, unemployment and current account figures are due from Turkey.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat is slated to issue industrial production for August. Output is expected to fall 0.3 percent on month, in contrast to the 0.8 percent rise in July.

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IFX Gertrude
10-12-2021, 06:23 AM
POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER UK UNEMPLOYMENT DATA

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At 2.00 am ET Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics has released UK unemployment data. The pound changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3607 against the greenback, 154.12 against the yen, 1.2617 against the franc and 0.8497 against the euro around 2.05 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
10-13-2021, 06:16 AM
POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER U.K. GDP DATA

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At 2.00 am ET Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics has released UK GDP, industrial and construction output and foreign trade figures. The pound changed little against its major counterparts after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3608 against the greenback, 154.37 against the yen, 1.2649 against the franc and 0.8487 against the euro around 2:01 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
10-14-2021, 06:43 AM
AUSTRALIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CLIMBS TO 4.6% IN SEPTEMBER

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The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.6 percent in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was up from 4.5 percent in August, although it was shy of expectations for 4.8 percent.

The Australian economy lost 138,000 jobs last month, slightly worse than forecasts for the loss of 137,500 jobs following the loss of 146,300 jobs in August.

The participation rate tumbled to 64.5 percent, missing forecasts for 64.7 percent and down sharply from 65.2 percent in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
10-15-2021, 05:18 AM
NEW ZEALAND MANUFACTURING INDEX DUE ON FRIDAY

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New Zealand will on Friday see September results for the Performance of Manufacturing Index from BusinessNZ, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity, In August, the PMI score was 40.1.

Indonesia will release September numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. Imports are expected to surge 50 percent on year, down from 55.26 percent in August. Exports are called higher by an annual 51.57 percent, slowing from 64.1 percent in the previous month. The trade surplus is pegged at $3.84 billion, down from $4.74 billion a month earlier.

Japan will provide August figures for its tertiary industry index; in July, the index was down 0.6 percent on month.

China will see September numbers for foreign direct investment; in August, FDI jumped 22.3 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
10-18-2021, 07:10 AM
SINGAPORE NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS RISE JUST 1.2% IN SEPTEMBER

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The total value of Singapore's non-oil domestic exports was up a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent on month in September, the Singapore Department of Statistics said on Monday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 2.4 percent following the upwardly revised 3.5 percent decline in August (originally -3.6 percent).
On a yearly basis, non-oil domestic exports jumped 12.3 percent - exceeding forecasts for a gain of 9.6 percent following the 2.7 percent gain in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
10-19-2021, 07:10 AM
RBA MINUTES ON TAP FOR TUESDAY

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The Reserve Bank of Australia will on Tuesday release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting on October 5, headlining a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

At the meeting, the RBA kept its monetary policy unchanged, leaving its benchmark lending rate steady at the record low of 0.10 percent. The board also voted to continue with the purchase of government securities at the rate of A$4 billion a week until at least mid-February 2022.

The central bank in Indonesia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates; the central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 3.50 percent.

Finally, the markets in Malaysia and Indonesia are closed on Tuesday to honor the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad; they will return to action on Wednesday.

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IFX Gertrude
10-20-2021, 07:19 AM
ESTONIA PRODUCER PRICES RISE IN SEPTEMBER

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Estonia's producer prices increased in September, data from Statistics Estonia showed on Wednesday.

The producer price index grew 19.2 percent year-on-year in September.

On a month-on-month basis, producer prices rose 2.8 percent in September.

"Compared to August, the index was mostly affected by price increases in electricity production and in the manufacture of wood products," Eveli Sokman, leading analyst at Statistics Estonia, said.

Import prices rose 2.3 percent monthly in September and gained 17.8 percent from a year ago.

Export prices grew 1.8 percent monthly in September and increased 18.2 percent yearly.

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IFX Gertrude
10-21-2021, 07:11 AM
UK BUDGET LOGS SECOND BIGGEST SEPTEMBER DEFICIT ON RECORD

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The UK budget registered its second biggest deficit for the month of September since the records began in 1993, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday.

Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks was GBP 21.8 billion in September, the second-highest September borrowing since monthly records began in 1993. This was GBP 7.0 billion less than in September 2020.

In the financial year-to-September 2021, PSNB excluding banks totaled GBP 108.1 billion 2021. This was also the second largest financial year-to-September borrowing on record and was GBP 101.2 billion less than in the same period last year.

Further, data showed that public sector net debt excluding public sector banks came in at GBP 2.218 trillion at the end of September, or around 95.5 percent of gross domestic product, the highest ratio since the 98.3 percent recorded in March 1963.

The ONS said the extra funding required by government coronavirus support schemes, combined with reduced cash receipts and a fall in GDP, have all helped to push public sector net debt to the current level.

In September, central government receipts grew 11 percent annually and expenditure dropped 1.6 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
10-22-2021, 07:16 AM
POUND LITTLE CHANGED AFTER U.K. RETAIL SALES DATA

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At 2.00 am ET Friday, the Office for National Statistics has released UK retail sales data for September. The pound changed little against its major rivals after the data.

The pound was trading at 1.3795 against the greenback, 157.28 against the yen, 1.2663 against the franc and 0.8428 against the euro around 2:05 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
10-25-2021, 07:36 AM
FINLAND PRODUCER PRICE INFLATION ACCELERATES IN SEPTEMBER

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Finland's producer price inflation increased in September, data from Statistics Finland showed on Monday. Producer prices increased 19.1 percent year-on-year in September, after a 15.5 percent rise in August.

The increase in the producer prices for manufactured products was particularly attributable to risen prices of oil products, basic metals and timber from September last year.

Import prices grew 18.6 percent annually in September and export prices rose by 20.9 percent. On a month-on-month basis, producer prices rose 2.3 percent in September, following a 1.4 percent increase in the prior month.

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IFX Gertrude
10-26-2021, 07:42 AM
FINLAND JOBLESS RATE FALLS IN SEPTEMBER

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Finland's jobless rate decreased in September, figures from Statistics Finland showed on Tuesday.

The unemployment rate for the 15 to 74 age group fell to 7.0 percent in September from 7.5 percent in the same month last year. In August, jobless rate was 6.5 percent.

The number of unemployed persons decreased to 191,000 in September from 203,000 in the last year.

The employment rate rose to 71.7 percent in September from 71.3 percent in the same month last year. The number of employed persons grew by 17,000 from a year ago to 2.52 million.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent in September from 7.7 percent in August.

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IFX Gertrude
10-27-2021, 05:09 AM
AUSTRALIA INFLATION DATA DUE ON WEDNESDAY

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Australia will on Wednesday release Q3 numbers for consumer prices, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Inflation is tipped to rise 0.8 percent on quarter and 3.1 percent on year after gaining 0.8 percent on quarter and 3.8 percent on year in the three months prior.

Australia also will see October results for the business confidence index from ANZ; in September, the index score was -7.2.

New Zealand will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth NZ$6.49 billion and exports were at NZ$4.35 billion for a trade deficit of NZ$2.144 billion.

China will see September numbers for industrial profits; in August, profits surged 49.5 percent on year.

Thailand will release September data for industrial production; in August, production was down 4.15 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
10-28-2021, 02:28 AM
AUSTRALIA EXPORT PRICES CLIMB 6.2% ON QUARTER IN Q2

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Export prices in Australia were up 6.2 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - slowing from the 13.2 percent jump in Q2.

Import prices rose 5.4 percent on quarter, accelerating from 1.9 percent in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, export prices skyrocketed 41.0 percent and import prices jumped 6.4 percent.

The main contributors to the jump in export prices included coal, coke and briquettes; gas, natural and manufactured goods; non-ferrous metals; meat and meat preparations; and petroleum, petroleum products and related materials.

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IFX Gertrude
10-29-2021, 04:05 AM
AUSTRALIA PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT GAINS 0.6% IN SEPTEMBER

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Private sector credit in Australia was up 0.6 percent on month in September, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Friday - matching expectations and unchanged from the August reading.

On a yearly basis, credit jumped 5.3 percent - accelerating from 4.7 percent in the previous month.

Housing credit rose 0.6 percent on month and 6.5 percent on year, while personal credit fell 0.6 percent on month and 5.3 percent on year and business credit gained 0.7 percent on month and 4.6 percent on year.

Broad money gained 1.3 percent on month and 7.9 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
11-01-2021, 06:21 AM
AUSTRALIA NEW HOME LOANS SINK 2.7% IN SEPTEMBER

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The total value of owner-occupied home loans in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent on month in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - coming in at A$20.69 billion.

That missed expectations for a decline of 2.0 percent following the 6.6 percent plunge in August.

Investment lending was up 1.4 percent on month at A$9.62 billion and overall home loans fell 1.4 percent on month to A$30.31 billion.

On a yearly basis, owner-occupied home loans gained 20.8 percent, while investment lending skyrocketed 83.2 percent and overall home loans jumped 35.5 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
11-02-2021, 06:17 AM
SOUTH KOREA INFLATION RISES IN OCTOBER

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South Korea's consumer prices increased in October, figures from Statistics Korea showed on Tuesday.

The consumer price index rose 3.2 percent year-on-year in October, after a 2.5 percent increase in September. This was in line with economists' expectation.

Excluding food and energy, core consumer prices increased 2.4 percent in October, following a 1.5 percent rise in the preceding month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in October, after a 0.5 percent increase in the previous month.

The core CPI grew 0.3 percent monthly in October, after a 0.1 percent fall in the prior month.

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IFX Gertrude
11-04-2021, 06:27 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Is the Bank of England ready for a rate hike? What will happen to the pound

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The central event of the week, which will determine the further movement of the dollar in pairs with other major currencies, not only in the short term, but also in the long term, is the Federal Reserve meeting. If we talk about GBP/USD, then another important catalyst for the movement is the Bank of England meeting. The central bank will announce its verdict on further monetary policy on Thursday.

If the Fed initially said that the rate hike is still far away, then the British central bank is more determined here. There are suggestions that the BoE will become the first central bank from developed countries to tighten policy. Such forecasts are not taken out of thin air, but dictated by representatives of the central bank. So, how big are the chances of a rate hike by the BoE?

The main reason for the abrupt change in the tone of the head of the Bank of England and the signals for tightening policy that have appeared is, of course, accelerating inflation. The indicator exceeded the target almost twice. The goal is 2%, the actual value is 3.1%. At the same time, all economists' forecasts agree that this is far from the final result, the indicator will exceed 4%, and by the end of the year it will reach 4.4%.

Customs regulations due to Brexit, an energy crisis, a shortage of truck drivers are just some of the reasons that are causing inflation to accelerate in the country. Local authorities are adding fuel to the fire. The country's chief treasurer, Rishi Sunak, last week announced tax cuts for pubs and restaurants and an additional 75bn for infrastructure, skills development and support for the poor. Meanwhile, previous statements were about tax increases. This step had to be taken due to the correction of the assessment of economic growth and damage from the pandemic.

Pro-inflationary forces are looming over England and the government is increasing spending. This means that the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of this year increases significantly. Investors estimate this step at 85%. As soon as the BoE begins the process of tightening policy, the pound will receive an impetus for growth. It is possible that this will happen on November 4. If the tone of the minutes is soft, the pound will drop.

Since BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has already signaled to the markets about a possible tightening of policy, this will not come as a surprise and a big surprise. For a more tangible growth of the pound, it is necessary for the central bank to act more harshly than market players now assume.

Three high-ranking representatives of the central bank, apparently, are ready to vote for a rate hike. However, the volume of the quantitative easing program is likely to remain at the same level - 875 billion pounds. This means that there are no strong drivers for the growth of the British currency at the moment.

Technical picture

The growth of the GBP/USD pair has slowed down. As confirmation that bullish sentiment for the pound will prevail in Forex again, it will be possible to consider a breakdown of the mirror level of 1.3641. Further, the road to the levels of 1.3686, 1.3723 and 1.3758 will open for bulls.

Otherwise, the bears will have the initiative and the level of severity, pulling the pound to 1.3594, 1.3568 and 1.3546.

Scotiabank believes that the central bank at its November meeting will nevertheless leave its policy unchanged. A rate hike this year may still occur, but the BoE, analysts say, will want to limit expectations for next year's rate. It is rather difficult to do this at the same time as the rate hike.

A downward test of the GBP/USD pair at 1.3600 is possible, but it can act as a strong support, and the next one is located at 1.3585. The breakthrough will make it possible to retest the level of the end of September - 1.3450.

The pound will be completely under the influence of the dollar until the BoE meeting.

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IFX Gertrude
11-05-2021, 08:32 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold sharply surged and recovered all its losses yesterday

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Gold made a sharp reversal following the disappointing decline on Wednesday to a 3-week low on Thursday. It rapidly rose in price and approached the key level of $ 1,800.

After the Fed's monetary policy meeting ended on November 3, the market was getting ready for a hawkish statement from the regulator.

In view of this, gold prices sharply declined quickly, received an additional boost from strong US employment data. On Wednesday, quotes sank by 1.4%, falling to their lowest level since October 12.

The situation changed after the final speech of the Fed Chairman. Jerome Powell made it clear that there is absolutely no connection between the upcoming reduction in asset purchases and a potential increase in interest rates. Moreover, he stressed that the central bank is not considering raising them in the near future.

This dovish remark of the Fed Chairman, who took a less rigid than expected position, literally inspired gold. The metal left the red zone after the close of trading on Wednesday and moved to a steady rise, which continued on Thursday.

On November 4, the noble asset showed the strongest intraday growth in 3 weeks. The bullion rose by 1.7%, or $29.60 yesterday, closing the session at $1,793.50.

Meanwhile, silver's value has also noticeably increased. Quotes rose 2.9%, or 68 cents, ending trading at $23.911.

In addition to the comments of the Fed's head, the precious metals market was also helped by the Bank of England's statement yesterday to recover. The regulator announced that it will not rush to increase interest rates and keeps them at the same level of 0.1% for the time being.

The announcement surprised investors, as many were betting that the British regulator could become the first major central bank to raise rates after the pandemic.

The unexpected decision of the Bank of England provoked a decline in British bond yields. Along with the fall of US bonds, this provided strong support for gold, analyst Fawad Razaqzada commented on the situation.

The expert also added that for a more significant strengthening of the precious metal, it is now important for the US currency to weaken its position. However, it is still moving along an ascending route. Yesterday, the dollar index rose by 0.4% against its main competitors. Due to the less aggressive than expected tightening of the Federal Reserve policy, as well as the emerging increase in interest in risky assets such as stocks, Razaqzada predicted that the US dollar may begin to decline, and this should contribute to the positive dynamics of gold and silver.

Market strategist George Milling-Stanley also draws investors' attention to the records that American stock indexes continue to set. In his opinion, the market is overheated and is far ahead of economic indicators, and stock prices are significantly higher than their real value.

At the same time, the expert does not expect a serious correction in the stock markets. He believes that even a small downward trend will be enough to bring gold back to the forefront in portfolios.

J. Milling-Stanley emphasized that the precious metal is now more attractive as a protective instrument against risks than as a hedge against inflation. And although the growing inflationary pressure has a positive effect on gold quotes, the prospects for the metal in the current context are still uncertain.

In order for gold to return to an annual yield of 16% as a result of high inflation, which, for example, was observed during the period of increased price growth in the 1970s, the analyst concluded that inflation should be currently above the current level for at least 4 months.

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IFX Gertrude
11-08-2021, 07:34 AM
US dollar is worried about the current inflation

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The US dollar is worried about the unexpected turn in inflation after rising on the Fed's decision last week to start curtailing stimulus. In such a situation, analysts believe that the indicated currency runs the risk of seriously collapsing.

Currently, the US dollar is frozen in anticipation of inflationary surprises, which the American economy is rich in. Last Wednesday, the Fed kept the rate in the range of 0-0.25% and announced a reduction in the volume of asset purchases ($ 15 billion in November and December 2021). This is in line with market expectations, although many feared a tightening of the regulator's rhetoric. At the same time, the Fed still considers high inflation to be a temporary phenomenon.

According to Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, the existing inflation rate does not correspond to price stability. He explains this phenomenon not by the US labor market's overheating, which contributes to the transition of high inflation into a stable form, but with the uneven recovery of the national economy and with disruptions of global supply chains. In view of this, the timing of the normalization of the US economy remains uncertain.

Experts believe that the current situation slows down the dynamics of the US dollar. At the beginning of the new week, the USD shows stability but remains below the highs of last Friday. According to analysts, the prolonged presence of the US dollar near two-year peaks hinders its further growth. It should be noted that after a weekly reduction, market participants increased their long positions on the greenback.

Last Friday, the US dollar managed to reach a 15-month high of 1.1513 after the publication of strong data on the US labor market. However, the triumph turned out to be temporary. The US dollar stabilized at the level of 1.1566. On Monday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the level of 1.1562, trying to catch up, but without much success.

If American companies increase their prices, high inflation in the United States will last much longer than the Fed expects. Most organizations have to raise prices to protect their profits amid constant labor costs. If negative trends intensify, the central bank will have to raise federal funds rates, which will support the US dollar.

Experts think that the negative impact of inflation on the USD in the near future is unlikely. Market participants are confident that the Fed controls its level and is ready to maintain a soft monetary policy. Investors are wary of the regulator's uncertainty about the temporary nature of inflation and the timing of its return to the target 2%. Against this background, the risk of an error in MP increases. This will lead to a chain of incorrect economic calculations that can bring down the US dollar. However, the Fed may reconsider its attitude to inflation as a temporary factor in 2022. Previously, J. Powell emphasized that the existing monetary policy will be adjusted depending on current economic data.

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IFX Gertrude
11-09-2021, 06:43 AM
US dollar is trying to consolidate its position, leaving EUR/USD pair in a narrow range

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The US employment data, released at the end of the previous week, allowed the greenback to renew its annual highs at 94.60 points

The data published on Friday showed the highest US job growth by 531,000 in three months in October and a decline of the unemployment rate to its lowest level by 4.6% since March 2020.

This data contributed to the USD strengthening, pushing EUR/USD to a 15-month low at 1.1514.

However, the pair was able to recoup its losses rather quickly and recovered to 1.1570 amid a wide dollar rebound.

The major Wall Street indices stimulated bulls in EUR/USD, which gained 0.2-0.6% on average and closed the past five days at new record highs.

The decline of the dollar was intensified by a 10-year Treasuries yield dropping to a 5-week low by 1.4360%.

Moreover, the greenback had been strengthening since the beginning of the week and investors decided to take profits before the weekend.

The dollar started the week positively, taking advantage of some weakening risk and a rebound in 10-year Treasury yields to 1.50%. However, this momentum did not continue. After updating to local highs around 94.30 the US currency resumed its decrease.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is struggling to extend its recovery from its lowest levels since July 2020, trading in a narrow range on Monday.

The publication of significant EU and US macro statistics is not scheduled for today. Therefore the main currency pair is influenced by the greenback dynamics.

Besides, the fundamental picture is still favorable for the dollar compared to the single currency. It means that EUR/USD recovery attempts may be held back by technical levels.

Experts at Westpac believe that strong data on the US labor market, the Fed's decision to begin winding down the asset buyback program, as well as the approval of the US House of Representatives the infrastructure investment plan will support the dollar.

According to experts, the divergence in rates of the US and European Central Banks will also favor the greenback.

At last week's FOMC meeting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that it was not the suitable time to raise interest rates as the national labor market had not fully recovered. He added that according to forecasts, it would happen no earlier than mid-2022. Until then, the Fed will display patience.

The data expected on Wednesday will likely point to a 5.8% year-over-year rise in US consumer prices in October. This will be a new major test for the US Central Bank. Its management insists on not rushing to raise rates.

Goldman Sachs, which recently changed its expectation of the Fed rate hike from the third quarter of 2023 to July 2022, believes an earlier hike could provide support to the dollar.

So far, the US Central Bank has promised to keep borrowing costs low despite the acceleration of inflation in the country.

As for the ECB, last Wednesday its head Christine Lagarde said that the regulator had previously set out clear conditions for raising interest rates and they would not be fulfilled in 2022.

According to strategists at Scotiabank, the EUR/USD pair has probably entered the consolidation phase. However, the break of 1.1500 is ahead and the test of 1.1400 will follow quickly.

The strategists said that a sharp fall of the pair for the last two weeks had strengthened the probability of testing 1.1500 amid the downward pressure since the end of May. They noted that the next support was only at 1.1422, and then at 1.1400, and its break would target EUR/USD at 1.1100. The strategists added that resistance was at 1.1600 and 1.1650.

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IFX Gertrude
11-10-2021, 07:08 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: US stock indices finished trading lower

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average on the basis of trading on Tuesday fell by 112.24 points (0.31%) and amounted to 36319.98 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 fell by 16.45 points (0.35%) - to 4685.25 points.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 95.81 points (0.6%) to 15886.54 points.

Some investors saw the market pullback as a little respite after several days of continuous gains. Strong company reports for the third quarter support the stock market, despite continued investor concerns about rising inflation and supply chain problems.

Statistics released on Tuesday showed a slight increase in the rate of rise in producer prices in October compared to the previous month - to 0.6% from 0.5% in September. The acceleration in growth was largely due to the rise in gasoline prices (6.7%). On an annualized basis, US producer prices jumped at a record 8.6%, as in the previous month.

In addition, the National Federation of Independent Business reported that the small business optimism indicator dropped 0.8 percentage points in October, to 98.2 points, the lowest since March.

General Electric Co. rose 2.7% by the end of trading on Tuesday. The American concern announced that it will split operations into three independent public companies.

Tesla Inc. lost almost 12% in price.

The price of securities of the developer of the online video game platform Roblox Corp. soared by 42%.

Car rental Hertz Global Holdings Inc. plunged 9.8% on its Nasdaq debut.

Boeing shares fell 0.9%.

Cruise operator Royal Caribbean's share price fell 2.5% on news of the imminent resignation of the company's chief executive Richard Fane, who has held the post since 1988.

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IFX Gertrude
11-11-2021, 07:20 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Inflation release provoked a sharp growth in the US dollar

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The long-awaited report on consumer inflation in the United States provoked a rapid growth in the US dollar. The impressive macro data turned out to be great support of the US dollar, which took advantage of the situation.

On Wednesday evening, it became known that US inflation accelerated to a maximum in 31 years. According to preliminary forecasts, the growth of annual inflation in the country was expected by 5.8%, and in October, by 0.6%. However, US consumer prices came as a surprise: they soared up to 6.2% in annual terms, and by 0.9% in October. As a result, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States showed a record growth compared to the same period in 2020.

Analysts drew attention to a significant increase in the base CPI (by 4.6%), which does not include the cost of food and energy. In September, this indicator was 4%. Experts expected the overall CPI to grow by 5.9%, and the base CPI by 4.3%. However, both indicators showed a sharp increase. Economists emphasize that this is the most significant annual rise in inflation for 31 years.

It can be recalled that the target inflation rate set by the Fed does not exceed 2%. however, the current inflation is far from it. This raises the concerns of investors, who are concerned not only about the rate hike in 2022, but also about the specific timing and scale of this increase.

The US currency has benefited from the current situation. It has risen rapidly on the inflationary wave and is now trying to maintain its position. Experts believe that the main reason for the strengthening of the USD is the increase in market rates. The chain of events here is as follows: shocking inflation reports provoked an increase in the yield of treasuries and contributed to the further expansion of spreads between US and German government bonds. An additional factor in this issue was the recent statements by the ECB about the inexpediency of raising rates. The divergence of the rhetoric of the ECB and the Fed led to the expansion of government bond spreads, providing significant support to the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Euro currency has lost ground unlike the American one. And although it is trying to catch up, it will be difficult for it to surpass its rival. On Thursday morning, the EUR/USD pair traded at the level of 1.1477, leaving the previous range of 1.1500-1.1550.

According to analysts, the problems associated with the acceleration of inflation in the United States are shaking the national economy and the US dollar. The situation is heating up, as the economic difficulties provoked by the COVID-19 wave, especially the delta variant, remain in force. Experts pay attention to long-term problems with the supply of goods. The pandemic has turned global labor markets upside down, causing a total shortage of workers. This had a negative impact on production processes and the slowdown in global transportation. Supporting payments in the form of trillions of dollars received from the government stimulated demand for goods. This has led to an overload of supply chains and provoked additional problems in the global economy.

Despite the Fed's assurances about the "temporary nature of inflation," the situation is getting worse, and the market is less and less believing what has been said. At the same time, the prerequisites for further growth of the US dollar remain. The specified currency is supported by the reduction of the asset purchase program launched by the Federal Reserve. Experts said that this is the first step towards raising rates.

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IFX Gertrude
11-12-2021, 07:33 AM
US stock indices finished trading with multidirectional dynamics

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158.71 points (0.44%) to 35921.23 points. Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 2.56 points (0.06%), that is, to 4649.27 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 81.58 points (0.52%) and amounted to 15704.28 points. Tesla Inc. Stock Quote decreased by 0.4%.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk this week sold shares in the company for a total of about $ 5 billion. On Monday, he exercised options to buy more than 2 million Tesla shares, which he received as compensation, for a total of $ 2.5 billion. options amounted to about $ 13.4 million.

Lordstown Motors Corp. rose 23.2% after rising more than 20% in additional trading on Wednesday. The electric car maker has struck a deal to sell its plant to Foxconn for $ 230 million.

Twitter Inc. Papers decreased by 0.7%. The company is creating a team that will develop a strategy for the future use of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general within the social network.

Walt Disney Co. decreased by 7.1%. The world's largest entertainment and media company posted weaker-than-expected earnings and revenues in its fiscal fourth quarter and saw a significant slowdown in subscriber growth for its Disney + streaming service.

Beyond Meat shares fell 13.3%. The American manufacturer of plant-based meat substitutes increased its net loss 2.8 times, while its revenue was worse than forecast.

Yesterday, traders' attention was focused on the statistics published the day before, which indicated a significant acceleration of inflation in the US last month.

According to the Department of Labor, consumer prices in the United States in October rose by 6.2% compared with the same month last year - the highest rate in almost 31 years (since November 1990). A month earlier, inflation in the US was 5.4%, and experts expected it to accelerate in October to 5.8%.

The jump in energy prices in the United States last month amounted to 30% in annual terms, gasoline rose in price by 49.6%. The rate of growth in the cost of food, which amounted to 5.3%, was the highest since January 2009.

According to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, inflation remains steadily high, surprising many who expected prices to return to normal more quickly. He also added that it is impossible to close the $ 20 trillion economy and not feel obstacles in the process of opening it, but we hope that supply chain problems will be resolved in the coming months, and inflation will stabilize.

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IFX Gertrude
11-16-2021, 07:54 AM
US stock indices finished trading with multidirectional dynamics

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The European currency, finding itself behind the American one, seeks to increase its potential. However, these attempts have been so far unsuccessful. Nevertheless, experts believe that the situation.

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IFX Gertrude
11-17-2021, 07:50 AM
EUR/USD: US dollar is rising, but the euro is not

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It is increasingly difficult for the Euro currency to keep its position, pretending that its decline is an annoying misunderstanding. In the EUR/USD pair, the euro has to act at the limit of its capabilities in order not to collapse.

Analysts believe that the catalyst for the euro's collapse was the "dovish" statements of ECB President Christine Lagarde. Representatives of the European regulator still consider it inappropriate to raise the rate and tighten the monetary policy. At the same time, the ECB, along with the Fed, significantly reduced the volume of the asset repurchase program. However, the similarity with the strategies of the leading central banks ended there. With regard to the rate hike, the European regulator disagrees with the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. The ECB hed is confident that the tightening of the monetary policy will harm the European economy.

The response to Lagarde's stubbornness was a sharp plunge of the euro, which has lost its position, trying to consolidate at current levels. Meanwhile, the US currency continues to test the highs. According to experts, the US dollar received a new impetus after another statement by C. Lagarde regarding the "temporary" nature of inflation. The ECB believes that it will return to the target 2% in the near future.

It is possible that the European regulator repeats the mistake of the American one. Earlier, the Fed claimed that high inflation in the US is a temporary phenomenon, and now the ECB is "persuading" itself and the markets in a similar way. Experts consider this a dangerous misconception, for which they will have to pay with holes in the economy. Inflation is considered the main way to normalize the MP, and statements by central banks about its temporary nature increase price pressure.

In view of the euro's weakening, the US dollar felt a surge of strength and became the leader once again. The US currency was helped by inspiring data on US retail sales. According to reports, this indicator increased in October much faster than experts expected. In the medium term, this will force the Fed to accelerate the reduction of the asset purchase program due to persistently high inflation.

Analysts are concerned about the long-term downward trend of the EUR/USD pair, recorded since the summer of 2021. Currently, the pair has broken through the 200-week moving average and is headed lower. This is extremely negative for the European currency, which is now more vulnerable to inflation than the American one. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the level of 1.1301, hoping to win back a series of falls, but without much success.

Experts consider geopolitics to be another reason for the weakness of the euro, in particular the problems of the UK related to Brexit and Northern Ireland. Moreover, the expectation of the final estimate of annual inflation in the eurozone also exerts additional pressure on the euro. According to preliminary forecasts, consumer price growth increased to 4.1% in October. This is the maximum price turn in the last 13 years.

Analysts believe that the euro has currently no growth impulse. If the ECB does not change the current monetary strategy, the indicated currency will remain in the outsiders and test the bottom. At the same time, inflation fears contribute to the growth of the yield of treasuries, providing significant support for the US currency. In such a situation, the euro has a very low chance of recovery. However, possible changes in the ECB's policy will give a head start to the EUR. If the regulator considers the possibility of raising rates in 2022, the situation will change in favor of the euro.

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IFX Gertrude
11-18-2021, 08:28 AM
Demand for all types of metals dramatically exceeds supply

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The world's six most significant industrial metals are demonstrating supply shortages for the first time in more than a decade as logistical shocks and high demand cause anxiety among buyers.

Spot prices for base metals (from aluminum to zinc) on the London Metal Exchange are rapidly exceeding futures, a condition known as backwardation that has occurred for the first time since 2007. Buyers are paying a premium for access to metal amid a slump in inventory exchanges, delays in the supply chain, production disruptions and rising demand for industrial goods from construction to consumer electronics.

As for copper and tin, the magnitude of the reversal development reached record highs in recent months, provoking panic among industrial consumers, who have faced escalating supply problems since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Signs of tight physical supply in the metals market also act as a counterbalance to growing nervousness about the broader macroeconomic outlook for major industrialized countries and especially China, the largest consumer of commodities. Spreads have reduced considerably over the past month, regarding aluminum, despite prices having fallen from multi-year highs.

Oliver Nugent, a base metals analyst at Citigroup Inc. said that taking into account diverse use and supply dynamics of individual metals, the unusual synchronized tightness of the six major LME contracts was a sign of the logistical shocks and demand growth widely distribution since the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.

Nugent noted that this aspect was obvious. He said that consumers mostly faced logistic problems. Nugent highlighted that this fact indicated very robust demand.

Evidently, complete tightness may not last long. Backwardation in copper and lead markets is disappearing, even as aluminum and nickel spreads reduce. Nugent stated that one of the consequences of supply chain disorder was that price spreads on other global exchanges could reduce further, even as the LME market softened.

As for copper, for example, there is a growing backwardation of contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, despite LME spreads retreating from the record highs observed during last month's unprecedented supply contraction.

Copper futures fell 0.9% to $9,472 a tonne at 11:57 a.m. in London, with metal shipments to LME warehouses in the United States helping to partially dispel supply fears after the cuts.

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $2,594.50 a tonne on Wednesday, compared to a high above $3,200 last month.

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IFX Gertrude
11-19-2021, 06:36 AM
JAPAN OVERALL INFLATION RISES 0.1% ON YEAR IN OCTOBER

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Overall consumer prices in Japan were up 0.1 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday.

That was in line with expectations and down from 0.2 percent in September.

Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, also rose an annual 0.1 percent - unchanged and matching forecasts.

Individually, prices were up for food, housing, fuel, furniture, education and recreation; prices were down for clothing, medical care and communications.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall inflation slipped 0.3 percent and core CPI dipped 0.1 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
11-22-2021, 02:17 AM
HONG KONG INFLATION DATA DUE ON MONDAY

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Hong Kong will on Monday release October figures for consumer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In September, the annual inflation rate was 1.4 percent.

Taiwan will provide October numbers for export orders and unemployment. In September, export orders surged 25.7 percent on year, while the jobless rate was 3.92 percent.

China will release the prime rates for one-year and five-year loans; previously, they were 3.85 percent and 4.65 percent, respectively.

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IFX Gertrude
11-23-2021, 03:59 AM
SOUTH KOREA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IMPROVES TIO 107.6 - BOK

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Consumer confidence in South Korea picked up steam in November, the latest survey from the Bank of Korea showed on Tuesday with a sentiment index score of 107.6 - up from 106.8 in October.

Consumer sentiment regarding current living standards was unchanged at 92, while the outlook was one point lower than in the previous month at 97.

Consumer sentiment related to future household income was unchanged at 101, and the outlook was three points higher at 115.

Consumer sentiment concerning current domestic economic conditions was one point higher than in the previous month at 81, and the outlook was unchanged at 96.

The expected inflation rate for the following year was 2.7 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
11-24-2021, 06:08 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Business sentiment survey results from Germany and France are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office Insee publishes business sentiment survey results. The business confidence index is expected to drop to 106 in November from 107 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, business sentiment data is due from the Czech Republic.

At 4.00 am ET, Germany's ifo Institute is scheduled to issue business sentiment data. The confidence index is seen at 96.6 in November versus 97.7 in October.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Industrial Trends survey results. The order book balance is expected to improve to 13 in November from 9 in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
11-25-2021, 06:31 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY REVISED GDP, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DUE

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Revised quarterly national accounts and consumer sentiment survey results are due from Germany on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's GDP data for the third quarter. According to initial estimate, the economy had expanded 1.8 percent sequentially, after rising 1.9 percent in the second quarter.

In the meantime, the market research group Gfk is slated to issue Germany's consumer confidence survey results. The forward-looking sentiment index is seen at -0.5 in December versus +0.9 in November.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE is slated to issue producer prices data for October. Prices had advanced 23.6 percent annually in September.

Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank announces its monetary policy decision. In the meantime, Statistics Sweden issues producer prices and household lending data. At 4.00 am ET, Poland's unemployment data is due. The jobless rate is seen at 5.5 percent in October versus 5.6 percent in September.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Distributive Trades survey results.

At 7.30 am ET, the European Central Bank publishes the account of the monetary policy meeting of the governing council held on October 27 and 28.

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IFX Gertrude
11-26-2021, 06:40 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: SWISS GDP DATA DUE

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Quarterly national accounts data from Switzerland is due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's import prices for October. Import price inflation is expected to climb to 19.6 percent from 17.7 percent in September.

In the meantime, retail sales and household consumption figures are due from Norway.

At 2.45 am ET, France Insee is scheduled to issue consumer sentiment survey results. The confidence index is expected to fall marginally to 98 in November from 99 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, releases Swiss GDP data for the third quarter. Economists forecast the economy to grow 2 percent sequentially after rising 1.8 percent in the second quarter. In the meantime, economic tendency survey results are due from Sweden.

At 3.30 am ET, Statistics Sweden publishes retail sales for October. Sales had dropped 0.3 percent on month in September.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank releases monetary aggregates for October. M3 is forecast to grow 7.4 percent annually, the same rate as seen in September.

Also, business confidence from Italy and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results from Austria are due.

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IFX Gertrude
11-29-2021, 06:47 AM
DUTCH PRODUCER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES IN NOVEMBER

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Dutch producer confidence improves in November, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

The producer sentiment index rose to 12.7 in November from 12.3 in October. This was above the average score of 0.7 seen over the past twenty years.

The latest reading was the strongest since 1985.

Producers were particularly positive about the order position, while assessment of stocks of finished goods improved, the agency said.

There were more entrepreneurs who expected their production to increase in the coming three months, the agency said.

The producers in the electrical and machine industry were more positive in November.

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IFX Gertrude
11-30-2021, 07:28 AM
ESTONIA RETAIL SALES RISE IN OCTOBER

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Estonia retail sales increased in October, data from Statistics Estonia showed on Tuesday.

Retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motor cycles trade, rose 10.0 percent year-on-year in October.

"In October, turnover increased in grocery stores and in stores selling manufactured goods as well as in enterprises engaged in the retail sale of automotive fuel," Jaanika Tiigiste, leading analyst at Statistics Estonia, said.

The biggest increase was seen in stores selling manufacturing goods, by 16.0 percent and stores selling household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials rose 21.0 percent.

On a monthly basis, retail sales fell 2.0 percent in October.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales gained 1.0 percent monthly in October.

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IFX Gertrude
12-01-2021, 06:21 AM
CHINA MANUFACTURING SECTOR FALLS INTO CONTRACTION - CAIXIN

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The manufacturing sector in China slipped into contraction territory in November, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.9.

That's down from 50.6 in October and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Chinese manufacturing output rose for the first time since July during November, though the rate of expansion was only fractional. Panel members indicated that firmer market conditions and a relative improvement in energy supply had supported higher production. That said, subdued customer demand, rising costs and limited power supply at some firms dampened overall growth.

Total new work fell marginally in November, following two months of expansion. Some firms linked relatively muted demand conditions to the pandemic and high output prices. New work from abroad also fell, albeit at the softest rate for four months, amid reports of reduced foreign demand due to the ongoing pandemic and challenges in shipping items to clients.

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IFX Gertrude
12-02-2021, 04:20 AM
AUSTRALIA HOME LOANS SINK 4.1% IN OCTOBER

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The value of owner-occupied home loans in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 4.1 percent on month in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at A$19.84 billion.

That missed forecasts for an increase of 1.0 percent following the 2.7 percent decline in September.

Investment lending was up 1.1 percent to A$9.73 billion after gaining 1.4 percent in the previous month.

Overall home loans were worth A$29.57 billion, down 2.5 percent on month.

On a yearly basis, owner occupied loans were up 15.1 percent, investment lending skyrocketed 89.6 percent and overall lending surged 32.2 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
12-03-2021, 06:07 AM
FITCH LOWERS TURKEY'S SOVEREIGN RATING OUTLOOK

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Fitch Ratings downgraded the outlook on Turkey's sovereign ratings to Negative from Stable, citing various risks to macroeconomic and financial stability and potential external financing pressures.

The rating agency said the central bank's premature monetary policy easing cycle and the prospect of further rate cuts or additional economic stimulus ahead of the 2023 presidential election have led to a deterioration in domestic confidence, reflected in a sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira and rising inflation.

These developments create risks to macroeconomic and financial stability and could potentially re-ignite external financing pressures, Fitch noted.

Further, the agency viewed that the proximity of the 2023 electoral cycle will have an impact on policy direction and expectations of economic actors.

The sovereign ratings were affirmed at 'BB-'. The credit ratings reflect weak monetary policy credibility, high inflation, low external liquidity in the context of high financing requirements and geopolitical risks.

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IFX Gertrude
12-06-2021, 06:18 AM
AUSTRALIA DATA ON TAP FOR MONDAY

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Australia will on Monday see November figures for job ads and inflation, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In October, the job advertisement survey from ANZ was up 6.2 percent on month, while the inflation gauge from TD Securities was up 0.2 percent on month.

Also, the markets in Thailand are closed on Monday in observance of the late King Bhumibol's birthday; they'll re-open on Tuesday.

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IFX Gertrude
12-08-2021, 08:03 AM
EUR/USD: Euro believed in itself and pushed the US dollar aside

The European currency was under strong pressure at the beginning of this week, fluctuating on the verge of a serious collapse. However, it found balance and tried to rise, pulling the EUR/USD pair to a new level.

In view of a relatively volatile US dollar, the euro steadily fell, occasionally rising to an acceptable level. Experts did not give it a chance, because the ECB's "dovish" strategy was acting against it. It can be recalled that the European regulator adheres to the position of non-interference in the current monetary policy, refusing to curtail incentives and raise rates. It seems that the ECB is following the path of the Fed, which until recently insisted on the "temporary" nature of inflation. Now, its European colleague is doing this.

The US currency retains its basic strength against the European one. It is supported by market expectations about the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and the prospect of a rate hike in May next year. According to preliminary calculations, three rate increases are expected in 2022, starting from the last month of spring. This decision is facilitated by the revival of inflation expectations in the United States, which recovered after falling to the highs of November 2021.

Analysts explain the current strengthening of the indicator by the "hawkish" attitude of the Fed, whose representatives ignored weak data on the US labor market (nonfarm payrolls). The focus is on the upcoming report on US inflation, which may cover the negative impact of Nonfarm data. According to preliminary estimates, US consumer prices in November increased to 6.7% year-on-year.

At the moment, there is a situation in the market that is not too favorable for the US currency. Experts have recorded an increase in risk sentiment and a departure from the "safe haven" currencies, primarily from the USD. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1294. The euro managed to make an upturn and catch up a little. A day earlier, the Euro currency was trading in the range of 1.1263-1.1266.

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IFX Gertrude
12-09-2021, 06:23 AM
AUD/USD: Australian dollar is on upswing

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The Australian dollar is growing on increased risk appetite, pushing new highs. However, it could be a short-term rise, analysts warn.

AUD started the week on an uptrend and extended it on Tuesday, making the biggest gains in six weeks. AUD/USD added 0.6% on Tuesday and reached 0.7091. The rally was triggered by the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which left the key interest rate at the record low level of 0.10%. On Wednesday, the Australian currency reached the weekly high on increased risk appetite. AUD/USD slightly rebounded but remained on the upswing, hovering near 0.7135.

The Australian dollar rose on positive news regarding the new Omicron strain of COVID-19, which could be less severe than previously anticipated. According to Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the emergence of Omicron is "a new source of uncertainty", but it won't obstruct the economic recovery.

A preliminary outlook suggests that Australian economy would reach pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022. By downplaying Omicron risks, the regulator hinted at an earlier interest rate hike. Earlier, the RBA warned it would not raise the rate until 2023. The markets have already priced in a possible rate hike, as market players expect a change in monetary policy by July 2022.

Improving business sentiment in Asia and rising iron ore prices also gave support to the Aussie. AUD was also boosted by improved outlook of the Reserve Bank of Australia on economic recovery. According to Philip Lowe, household consumption and the labor market are expected to recover by the end of 2021, along with a further rise of salaries and increased investments. The high level of vaccination in Australia and the resulting collective immunity is the likely reason to Omicron's low impact on the Australian economy. As a result, the country could avoid new lockdowns and put its economy back on track.

Decreasing unemployment is another positive factor for Australia - in November, the amount of job vacancies exceeded the pre-pandemic level by 44%. An outlook by ANZ sees unemployment fall to 4% by the end of 2022, while wages growth would rise to 3%. Thanks to relaxed quarantine measures boosting the Australian economy, the amount of job vacancies soared by 7.4% in November, as companies actively increased their spending.

AUD has also found support in rising inflation expectations. The RBA expects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2023. Currently, the base inflation rate is near the lower end of the inflation target range of 2-3%. Given the current situation, the regulator is open to revising its bond buying program, as well as potentially cancelling it in February 2022. The end of QE stimulus and positive economic trends push the Australian dollar up.

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- - - Updated - - -

AUD/USD: Australian dollar is on upswing

The Australian dollar is growing on increased risk appetite, pushing new highs. However, it could be a short-term rise, analysts warn.

AUD started the week on an uptrend and extended it on Tuesday, making the biggest gains in six weeks. AUD/USD added 0.6% on Tuesday and reached 0.7091. The rally was triggered by the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which left the key interest rate at the record low level of 0.10%. On Wednesday, the Australian currency reached the weekly high on increased risk appetite. AUD/USD slightly rebounded but remained on the upswing, hovering near 0.7135.

The Australian dollar rose on positive news regarding the new Omicron strain of COVID-19, which could be less severe than previously anticipated. According to Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the emergence of Omicron is "a new source of uncertainty", but it won't obstruct the economic recovery.

A preliminary outlook suggests that Australian economy would reach pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022. By downplaying Omicron risks, the regulator hinted at an earlier interest rate hike. Earlier, the RBA warned it would not raise the rate until 2023. The markets have already priced in a possible rate hike, as market players expect a change in monetary policy by July 2022.

Improving business sentiment in Asia and rising iron ore prices also gave support to the Aussie. AUD was also boosted by improved outlook of the Reserve Bank of Australia on economic recovery. According to Philip Lowe, household consumption and the labor market are expected to recover by the end of 2021, along with a further rise of salaries and increased investments. The high level of vaccination in Australia and the resulting collective immunity is the likely reason to Omicron's low impact on the Australian economy. As a result, the country could avoid new lockdowns and put its economy back on track.

Decreasing unemployment is another positive factor for Australia - in November, the amount of job vacancies exceeded the pre-pandemic level by 44%. An outlook by ANZ sees unemployment fall to 4% by the end of 2022, while wages growth would rise to 3%. Thanks to relaxed quarantine measures boosting the Australian economy, the amount of job vacancies soared by 7.4% in November, as companies actively increased their spending.

AUD has also found support in rising inflation expectations. The RBA expects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2023. Currently, the base inflation rate is near the lower end of the inflation target range of 2-3%. Given the current situation, the regulator is open to revising its bond buying program, as well as potentially cancelling it in February 2022. The end of QE stimulus and positive economic trends push the Australian dollar up.

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IFX Gertrude
12-10-2021, 06:19 AM
Inflation, Fed and ECB meeting: Degree of nervousness is growing, steep voyage to dollar and euro is guaranteed

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We dreamed about the growth of the euro and that's enough. The harsh reality suggests that any bounce in the EUR/USD pair will be short-lived and insignificant. Bulls are left to put on a good face with a bad game.

In the markets, it is not difficult to notice a general cooling to risk. The optimistic mood that prevailed at the beginning of the week began to decline and, to some extent, even gave way to skepticism. Investors assess the situation with the new strain more soberly and try not to react to all messages in a row. Three doses of Pfizer's vaccine should protect against Omicron, but this is just initial laboratory testing and time will tell how it actually works under the new circumstances.

Convincing positive statements have not yet been reported; instead, a new variant of the virus has been detected in almost 60 countries around the world, and WHO is confident that the number will continue to grow. Such a background can quickly return stock markets to a bearish correction mode. Potentially high inflation data in the US, which will be published on Friday, also speaks in favor of this scenario. Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 6.8% in November, the highest since 1982.

Markets are preparing to evaluate this report and will gradually switch to meetings of the world's central banks (US, England, EU and Japan) next week. Another jump in US inflation will increase the chances of a more aggressive Fed tightening. At the end of the week, profit-taking will be justified, including on the eve of the FOMC meeting.

In this context, it will be most interesting to observe the EUR/USD pair. Given the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and the ECB's reluctance to respond to accelerating inflation, the downside risks for the euro are quite high. The stronger the contrast between the central bank, the deeper the quotes of the pair may sink.

This week, the euro tried to rebound from the lows, which somewhat encouraged bulls and even misled. Nevertheless, relying on the available information, the single currency has no chance of a victorious rise against the dollar.

Some market players stubbornly continue to admit the possibility of a change in the ECB's rhetoric. The leader of the financial flock - the Fed - has changed its attitude to inflation, now it is Europe's turn. At least this happens, if not always, then often. The ECB is basically copying the moves of the Fed. How will it be this time? The pandemic has changed everyone and everyone who knows what will happen next ...

Regarding the recent rise in EUR/USD above 1.1300, the euro could benefit from the sharp jump in the EUR/GBP rate. This dynamic was fueled by reports of new COVID-19 restrictions being introduced in the UK.

On Thursday, the euro sank again, in the American session the dollar increased after the publication of the weekly data on the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 43,000 compared with the revised figure of the previous week, to 184,000. The value was the lowest since September 1969.

The situation looks like the euro is likely to continue to decline to the 1.1200 area. The dynamics that we have seen this week can only be called volatility in the range of 1.1200-1.1350. Until the Fed and ECB meetings next week, the market just decided to wait out in a range.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b2811149a6d_source!.jpg

If you look at the technical picture, then it is more likely not sideways, but a converging triangle-pennant. In other words, the market deals with the continuation of the trend, that is, with the decline.

If the level of 1.1200 is broken at the end of the week, the EUR/USD pair will go to new lows to 1.1100 and below. In any case, until the quote breaks through the 1.1400 mark, it will be at least wrong to expect an upward trend.

Scotiabank and Nomura are still waiting for the euro to reach 1.1000. Analysts believe that the downside risk will diminish only if the 1.1434 level is broken.

News are provided by
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- - - Updated - - -

Inflation, Fed and ECB meeting: Degree of nervousness is growing, steep voyage to dollar and euro is guaranteed

We dreamed about the growth of the euro and that's enough. The harsh reality suggests that any bounce in the EUR/USD pair will be short-lived and insignificant. Bulls are left to put on a good face with a bad game.

In the markets, it is not difficult to notice a general cooling to risk. The optimistic mood that prevailed at the beginning of the week began to decline and, to some extent, even gave way to skepticism. Investors assess the situation with the new strain more soberly and try not to react to all messages in a row. Three doses of Pfizer's vaccine should protect against Omicron, but this is just initial laboratory testing and time will tell how it actually works under the new circumstances.

Convincing positive statements have not yet been reported; instead, a new variant of the virus has been detected in almost 60 countries around the world, and WHO is confident that the number will continue to grow. Such a background can quickly return stock markets to a bearish correction mode. Potentially high inflation data in the US, which will be published on Friday, also speaks in favor of this scenario. Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 6.8% in November, the highest since 1982.

Markets are preparing to evaluate this report and will gradually switch to meetings of the world's central banks (US, England, EU and Japan) next week. Another jump in US inflation will increase the chances of a more aggressive Fed tightening. At the end of the week, profit-taking will be justified, including on the eve of the FOMC meeting.

In this context, it will be most interesting to observe the EUR/USD pair. Given the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and the ECB's reluctance to respond to accelerating inflation, the downside risks for the euro are quite high. The stronger the contrast between the central bank, the deeper the quotes of the pair may sink.

This week, the euro tried to rebound from the lows, which somewhat encouraged bulls and even misled. Nevertheless, relying on the available information, the single currency has no chance of a victorious rise against the dollar.

Some market players stubbornly continue to admit the possibility of a change in the ECB's rhetoric. The leader of the financial flock - the Fed - has changed its attitude to inflation, now it is Europe's turn. At least this happens, if not always, then often. The ECB is basically copying the moves of the Fed. How will it be this time? The pandemic has changed everyone and everyone who knows what will happen next ...

Regarding the recent rise in EUR/USD above 1.1300, the euro could benefit from the sharp jump in the EUR/GBP rate. This dynamic was fueled by reports of new COVID-19 restrictions being introduced in the UK.

On Thursday, the euro sank again, in the American session the dollar increased after the publication of the weekly data on the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 43,000 compared with the revised figure of the previous week, to 184,000. The value was the lowest since September 1969.

The situation looks like the euro is likely to continue to decline to the 1.1200 area. The dynamics that we have seen this week can only be called volatility in the range of 1.1200-1.1350. Until the Fed and ECB meetings next week, the market just decided to wait out in a range.

If you look at the technical picture, then it is more likely not sideways, but a converging triangle-pennant. In other words, the market deals with the continuation of the trend, that is, with the decline.

If the level of 1.1200 is broken at the end of the week, the EUR/USD pair will go to new lows to 1.1100 and below. In any case, until the quote breaks through the 1.1400 mark, it will be at least wrong to expect an upward trend.

Scotiabank and Nomura are still waiting for the euro to reach 1.1000. Analysts believe that the downside risk will diminish only if the 1.1434 level is broken.

News are provided by InstaForex

IFX Gertrude
12-13-2021, 08:06 AM
The dollar is plagued with doubts: Will there be a pre-New Year rally?

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Judging by the latest data, the peak of inflation has not been passed, the rise in prices continues to eat into the economy. As predicted, U.S. annual inflation accelerated to a 40-year high, or 6.8%, in November. In theory, this should force the Central Bank to increase its efforts to combat it. It is believed that the new numbers will not have much of an impact on the Fed's

December monetary policy meeting. Despite the fact that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke about the occurrence of unpleasant surprises, if he does not accelerate the process of abandoning bond purchases, next week there may be a confrontation between the doves and the hawks of the Fed.

The former will look for signs of a short-term weakening in the growth of prices for goods sold. Gasoline prices, for example, have been declining for a month. The latter focuses on the penetration of inflation in such areas as rent. The CPI will also be taken into account with its important component inflation expectations.

In the meantime, the markets are laying down a high probability that the Fed will double the pace of curtailing incentives with the expectation of completing QE in March or April. Thus, the first-rate increase may occur in May. There is a 63% probability for such a scenario development. One increase by the end of 2022 is estimated at 98%, two at 89.5, and three - at 67%.

Yes, Powell has switched to the side of the hawks, investors' expectations look too optimistic somehow. What if inflation starts to slow down? After the crisis of 2008, inflation began to recover quite quickly, while economic growth remained unstable.

Perhaps America is already approaching an inflationary peak, given the growth of the dollar index by 8% in six months and a decrease in the intensity of logistical problems. Of course, there is no question of returning to the target of 2%. A temporary stop somewhere in the region of 4% would be quite a suitable option.

Otherwise, the Fed will have to move away from the zero interest rate policy. However, it is not a fact that the regulator will start acting from the series right now. The most reasonable thing, as economists like to say, is to leave the door open for a faster tightening of monetary policy.

Dollar forecast

As for the dollar, analysts predict that its direction will remain bullish in the coming days. There is no other way here yet: The Fed should accelerate the curtailment of QE, while other regulators, including the ECB and the Bank of Japan, take a much less hawkish position.

The fact that the U.S. currency index broke through and held above 94.65 indicates its long-term bullish positioning. The technical picture will remain on its side, even if it shows weakness at some point.

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Growth towards the upper limit of the 6-year range looks quite viable. The main target remains the level of 100.00, especially considering that the greenback failed to stay above it several times.

The outlook for the dollar will look very attractive, at least until other Central Banks are revived. Next week, the meetings of the Bank of England and the ECB are scheduled. They will not raise rates - it is not even discussed, but they will hint at the possibility of taking action in response to inflation. Even these words will be enough to lift their national currencies from their knees. The question is, will they do it?

It is important to understand that the dollar will not grow forever either. Given the expected tax hike and tighter monetary policy, the greenback could soon form a top.

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IFX Gertrude
12-14-2021, 07:38 AM
European equities closed lower

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Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.8%, Germany's DAX shed 0.01%, France's CAC 40 shed 0.7%, Spain's IBEX 35 shed 0.5% and Italy's FTSE MIB shed 0.6%. Air France-KLM shares lost 3.4%. The airline said it had paid the French authorities 500 million in debt repayment totaling 4 billion. In addition,

Air France-KLM agreed with the country's authorities to change the debt repayment schedule: if earlier it had to pay off the debt in full in May 2023, now it will be able to pay it off until May 2025.

Germany's Daimler Truck Holding AG, a truck maker, rose 10.7% in its second trading session after divesting from Daimler. JPMorgan analysts have set the target price for the company's shares at 48 euros per share, while Bank of America has set a different price, 40 euros. At the same time, Daimler AG's value fell 0.3% yesterday.

The capitalization of the German software developer SAP AG increased by 2.6% after analysts at UBS improved the recommendation on the stock of the company from neutral to buy.

Australian biopharmaceutical company CSL has confirmed that it is in talks to buy the Swiss drug manufacturer Vifor Pharma. Vifor Pharma shares jumped 18.5%.

Credit Suisse Group AG on Monday announced a structural reorganization and appointed new chief executives for its core divisions. The structure of the bank from next year will consist of 4 main business divisions and 4 regional divisions. Credit Suisse lost 1.8%.

Shares in British mining company Rio Tinto fell 0.1%. The company will write off $ 2.3 billion in debt from the Mongolian government to finally move forward with the expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi gold-copper project.

The market is awaiting meetings of the world's largest central banks scheduled for this week.

The Federal Reserve System (FRS) is holding a two-day meeting on December 14-15, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England will release their decisions on December 16, the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting on December 17.

The ECB is expected to discuss at the upcoming meeting the future prospects for its asset repurchase programs, while the Fed may decide to step up the pace of its quantitative easing (QE) program, which it launched in November.

The Bank of England is likely to keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, as the latest GDP data proved disappointing, and in addition, the country's authorities are introducing new restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19.

The UK National Statistical Office (ONS) on Friday reported a slowdown in the country's GDP growth in October to 4.6% on an annualized basis from 5.3% a month earlier.

The statistics released on Monday showed an acceleration in the growth of wholesale prices in Germany in November to a record 16.6% in annual terms. As noted by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), the growth of wholesale prices accelerated compared to 15.2% in October against the background of higher prices for raw materials and intermediate goods.

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IFX Gertrude
12-15-2021, 01:36 AM
Eurozone production rises - economic recovery pushes numbers up

According to the report, eurozone industrial production increased in October - the forecasts of economists came true. At the same time, the largest increase in comparison with the previous month was shown by the sector of production of consumer goods and durable goods, and the volume of production of short-term goods is even leading year-on-year.

Manufacturing in the eurozone is growing - the economic recovery pushes the numbers up

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The statistical office Eurostat reported that industrial production in 19 countries using the euro increased by 1.1% in October compared to the previous month. This is 3.3% more compared to the same period last year. Median estimates of economists predicted growth of 1.2% per month and 3.2% per year.

Eurostat reported that compared with September, the volume of industrial production of goods produced with the attraction of investments increased by 3.0% after falls in August and September. On an annualized basis, the production of such goods increased by 5.2%, which shows the volume of flows that hit the financial and production segments.

The output of durable goods also rose sharply, increasing by 1.7% for the month and 2.3% for the year, while the production of consumer goods for short-term use was 6.9% higher than a year earlier, continuing the general trend of strong growth in the previous months.

Of course, the economic recovery will not last forever. Some economists even believe that a sharp rise in demand, combined with supply disruptions and further quarantine measures, may over-stimulate inflation. Nevertheless, against the background of restrictions in energy resources, the recovery of the eurozone economy looks optimistic.

This is likely to push the euro up, especially against the background of sad news from the United States about the growth of consumer prices. March Euro Stoxx 50 futures have grown well after the release of the data.

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IFX Gertrude
12-16-2021, 06:44 AM
US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 1.08%

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At the close in New York, the Dow Jones gained 1.08%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.63% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.15%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Cisco Systems Inc, which rose in price by 2.16 points (3.74%), to close at 59.93. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 3.11% or 14.92 points to end at 494.38. Apple Inc rose 2.85% or 4.97 points to end at 179.30.

The biggest losers were Nike Inc, which fell 0.91% or 1.50 points to end the session at 163.90. JPMorgan Chase & Co is up 0.75% or 1.19 points to end at 157.94, while Chevron Corp is down 0.57% or 0.66 points to 115. , 56.

Eli Lilly and Company, which gained 10.39% to 275.28, and Advanced Micro Devices Inc, gained 8.04% to close at 146.50, were the top performers among the S&P 500 index components at the end of today's trading. and NVIDIA Corporation, which rose 7.49% to end the session at 304.59.

The biggest decline was led by Nucor Corp, which fell 8.61% to close at 108.22. Medtronic PLC shed 6.04% to end the session at 104.94. Newmont Goldcorp Corp was down 3.45% to 54.23.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were the shares of Theseus Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 34.12% to 12.58, CMC Materials Inc, which gained 33.93%, to close at 195.50, and also Biofrontera Inc, which rose 26.36% to end at 6.95.

The biggest losers were ATAI Life Sciences BV, which fell 31.94% to close at 6.82. Pulmatrix Inc shed 31.58% to trade at 0.4851. China Xiangtai Food Co Ltd was down 28.17% to 1.8100.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that gained in price (2,151) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (1109), while the quotations of 149 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,462 companies rose in price, 1,332 declined, and 218 remained at the level of the previous close.

Eli Lilly and Company rose to an all-time high, climbing 10.39%, 25.90 points, to close at 275.28. Medtronic PLC shares fell to a 52-week low, down 6.04%, 6.75 points to 104.94. Cisco Systems Inc rose to the all-time high, climbing 3.74%, 2.16 points to trade at 59.93. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose to an all-time high, gaining 3.11%, 14.92 points to trade at 494.38. ATAI Life Sciences BV shares fell to historic lows, shedding 31.94%, 3.20 points to end at 6.82. Pulmatrix Inc shares fell to historic lows, down 31.58%, 0.2239 points to trade at 0.4851.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 11.88% to trade at 19.29.

Gold Futures for February delivery was up 0.29% or 5.10 to $ 1,777.40 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for January delivery rose 1.05%, or 0.74, to $ 71.47 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for February delivery fell 0.01% or 0.01 to trade at $ 74.31 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.09% to hit 1.1295, while the USD / JPY was up 0.00% to hit 114.03.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.25% at 96.293.

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IFX Gertrude
12-20-2021, 07:50 AM
Fed's "hawkish" rhetoric last week supported the US dollar. Now, where will the complicated path of inflation take this currency?

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The US currency is in the hands of inflation but is trying to consolidate in an upward trend, and it did not succeed. The desire of this currency to benefit from a difficult situation provides it with leadership among other currencies.

According to analysts, inflation has a complicated path, so it is difficult to predict where it will lead the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish tactics, which the regulator showed last week, helped it. As a result, the US currency got stronger and continues to move in an upward spiral.

The US dollar rose after the Fed's meeting, against the background of statements by the regulator about the high probability of an early curtailment of incentives and an increase in interest rates in March 2022. On Monday morning, it was around the highest level recorded since July 2020. The EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1253, while the euro slightly lost its position, which it successfully gained last Friday.

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However, the off-the-scale inflation that is recorded not only in the United States but also in a number of other countries has worsened the situation in the financial markets. The "hawkish" turn in the Fed's strategy led to a mass flight of investors into safe-haven currencies, primarily the US dollar. In view of this, there was a strong rally in US Treasury bonds. Many analysts believe that the narrowing of the Fed's balance sheet and multiple rate hikes will lead to a sharp reduction in the share of borrowed funds. This may negatively affect the state of the real economy and the inflation rate, as well as further decisions of the regulator regarding rates. According to analysts at Saxo Bank, "the luxury that the Fed does not have now is the ability to ignore inflation, which will decrease under any easing scenario if asset markets do not collapse amid a sharp reduction in risk appetites."

Currently, the global bond market is seriously concerned about the fate of the US economy. Even if inflation slows down, that is, under a favorable scenario, it is too early to rejoice: the damage to the American economy has already been done, and prices are still quite high, despite the measures taken by the Fed. It can be recalled that in the late 1970s - early 1980s of the twentieth century, Former Fed Chairman P. Volcker increased the base rate of federal funds more than twice (from 9% to 20%) in the course of solving extremely high inflation, which reached 13%. As a result, the United States economy was in a severe crisis in 1982, but by the end of that year, inflation had fallen to 5%. At the same time, the base rate on federal funds has returned to 9%. However, the American authorities now are trying to prevent such a development. They seek to prevent possible negative consequences of accelerated inflation: mass unemployment, a significant drop in living standards, and stagnation of the national economy.

Regarding the future fate of the US dollar, experts agree on its weakening as a means of payment, which is used between countries outside the United States. However, as the main world currency, USD remains the undisputed leader. Most reserve currencies are less in demand than greenbacks. According to experts, non-dollar assets are still inferior to dollar assets, although the world's central banks diversify their currency portfolios in a timely manner, reducing the share of USD investments and increasing stocks of the euro, yuan, British pound, etc.

Currently, the US currency is rarely used in settlements in the countries of Southeast Asia: the yuan is used here, and the euro is used in Europe. At the same time, the US share in global GDP does not exceed 23%-24%, which negatively affects the dynamics of the US dollar. According to forecasts, it will decline to 20% by the end of this decade, and this will significantly weaken its position.

However, the temporary weakness of the US dollar does not mean that other currencies are strong enough to take the lead. Experts are sure that its weakness will not lead to its disappearance. In the third decade of the XXI century, it will retain its dominant position against the background of the lack of serious potential for other currencies. None of them can compete with the US dollar, not even the euro.

Analysts said that sustainable economic development will become a catalyst for the growth of the global stock market in 2022. At the same time, managers of a number of large companies consider the "hawkish rush" of central banks to be the biggest risk for most stocks. The US dollar will end this year at its highest recorded in the last 6 years. According to experts, the key factors behind the strengthening of the US currency are the upcoming rate hike and the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. In 2022, some currency strategists are forecasting four interest rate hikes instead of three. In this situation, experts recommend buying the US dollar and selling other currencies.

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IFX Gertrude
12-21-2021, 09:41 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on December 21, 2021

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The US dollar, which experienced victory recently, is forced to retreat under the pressure of the Fed's hawkish actions and investors' avoidance of risk. However, this currency does not intend to give up and plans to recover its current losses.

Investors' refusal to buy risky assets amid renewed fears about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain facilitated the pullback of the US currency. On Monday evening, some panic gripped the markets, so the US and European stock indices went into the negative zone. In this situation, risk aversion puts pressure on the yield of US Treasuries and limits the growth of the US dollar.

On the other hand, the price of the euro has increased correctively against the American one, and is now heading into an upward spiral. On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1280, trying to further rise. At the same time, the US dollar fell below current highs, losing its previous gains after hitting plans to implement an infrastructure plan initiated by US President Joe Biden.

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The news about the possible refusal of the US Senate to accept a large package of infrastructure spending (Build Back Better) shocked investors. Previously, its approval was taken for granted, but some representatives of the Democratic Party unexpectedly announced their readiness to vote against it. The reason lies in the significant burden on the American economy, which may not be able to withstand such costs.

Earlier, representatives of the largest bank Goldman Sachs excluded fiscal stimulus for the US economy from their baseline scenario and downgraded its growth forecast to 2% in the first quarter of 2022 (from the previous 3%), and to 3% in the second quarter (from the previously announced 3.5%) and up to 2.75% in the third quarter (from the previous 3%). Bank representatives also doubt that the first increase in the Fed's federal funds rate will occur in March 2022.

The current situation keeps the market participants thrilled. Many traders and investors believe that the failure to approve the infrastructure spending package will force the Fed to postpone the rate increase. As a result, their increase, planned for the first half of next year, as well as the easing of the stimulus package, may be postponed for a long time.

Regarding the prospects of the European currency, analysts do not have much hope. According to Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at BDSwiss, the euro in the EUR/USD pair will continue to weaken, despite the short-term current growth. Its further decline is possible if the ECB maintains its soft monetary policy. It can be recalled that last Thursday, the European regulator expectedly kept the interest rate on loans at zero, and the rate on deposits at -0.5%.

The ECB Governing Council believes that key rates will remain at current levels until inflation reaches the 2% target. At the same time, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, a representative of the Governing Council of the ECB and the Central Bank of Spain, announced yesterday an "unlikely" rate hike in 2022.

Experts assess the risks of a deterioration in the European economy as small, despite the worsening situation with the spread of new mutations of the coronavirus. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the tense situation with COVID-19 could negatively affect economic growth in the long term. According to her assessment, economic activity in the region slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2021, but at the beginning of next year, a moderate economic recovery will continue.

The absence of a traditional New Year rally added pessimism to the market. The reasons for this are the pressure on the US stock market amid problems related to the support program, and the uncertainty about the implementation of the Fed's decisions on raising rates and curtailing incentives Analysts emphasize that the tightening of monetary policy of the US regulator is currently under threat. This adds problems to the US dollar, whose dynamics are weak. Nevertheless, it has the strength for further recovery, which is not far off.

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IFX Gertrude
12-22-2021, 07:04 AM
US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 1.60%

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At the close in New York, the Dow Jones climbed 1.60%, the S&P 500 gained 1.78% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.40%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Nike Inc, which rose in price by 9.65 points (6.15%), to close at 166.63. Boeing Co rose 5.86% or 11.04 points to end at 199.52. American Express Company added 3.22% or 5.02 points to close at 160.91.

The biggest losers were Merck & Company Inc, which fell 1.14% or 0.87 points to end the session at 75.54. Verizon Communications Inc rose 0.58% or 0.31 points to end at 52.78, while Johnson & Johnson was down 0.32% or 0.54 points to 167. , 21.

The growth leaders among the S&P 500 index components at the end of today's trading were Citrix Systems Inc, which gained 13.63% to 95.05, Micron Technology Inc, which gained 10.54% to close at 90.68, and also Expedia Inc, which was up 9.14% to end at 177.27. The biggest losers were General Mills Inc, which fell 4.03% to close at 65.06. The Kroger Company shed 3.60% to end the session at 43.87. Pfizer Inc was down 3.39% to 58.95.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Reliance Global Group Inc, which rose in price by 78.69% to the level of 5.450, Biofrontera Inc, which gained 44.75%, to close at 11.03, as well as shares IsoPlexis Corp rose 40.82% to end at 6.90.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of shares that went up (2,671) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (604), while the quotes of 88 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2889 companies rose in price, 880 declined, and 215 remained at the level of the previous close.

Aldeyra The shares fell to a 52-week low, shedding 50.91%, 3.63 points to trade at 3.50. Biofrontera Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 44.75%, 3.41 points, to trade at 11.03. DBV Technologies shares fell to historic lows, down 48.52%, 1.310 points, and ended trading at 1.390. CytomX Therapeutics Inc fell to a 52-week low, down 40.00%, 2.580 points to trade at 3.870.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 8.13% to trade at 21.01.

Gold Futures for February delivery was down 0.28% or 5.05 to $ 1,789.55 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, WTI crude for February delivery rose 3.92%, or 2.69, to $ 71.30 a barrel. Futures contract for Brent oil for February delivery was flat 0.00%, or 0.00, to trade at $ 74.03 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.02% to hit 1.1286, while the USD / JPY was up 0.01% to hit 114.10.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.10% at 96.445.

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IFX Gertrude
12-23-2021, 05:41 AM
US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 0.74%

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At the close in New York, the Dow Jones gained 0.74%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.18%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Caterpillar Inc, which rose in price by 3.84 points (1.94%), to close at 202.15. Microsoft Corporation added 1.81% or 5.91 points to end trading at 333.20. Apple Inc rose 1.53% or 2.65 points to close at 175.64.

The biggest losers were Nike Inc, which fell 0.71% or 1.19 points to end the session at 165.44. The Travelers Companies Inc was up 0.53% or 0.83 points to end at 154.69 and 3M Company was down 0.16% or 0.28 points to 172. , 64.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Tesla Inc, which rose in price by 7.49% to the level of 1.008.87, Paychex Inc, which gained 5.52%, to close at 133.41, as well as shares CF Industries Holdings Inc, which rose 4.58% to end at 71.73.

The biggest losers were CarMax Inc, which fell 6.66% to close at 127.87. Moderna Inc shed 6.26% to trade at 251.36. Cintas Corporation was down 1.81% to 428.89.

BiondVax Pharmaceuticals Ltd ADR, which gained 97.30% to 2.920, and Society Pass Inc gained 53.43% to close at 16.31, and also Acasti Pharma Inc rose 52.25% to end 1.6900.

The biggest losers were Allakos Inc, which fell 89.87% to close at 8.55. AgileThought Inc shed 30.40% to end the session at 6.410. CalAmp Corp was down 25.78% to 7.34.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2,382) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (861), while the quotations of 138 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2294 companies rose in price, 1524 declined, and 220 remained at the level of the previous close.

Paychex Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 5.52%, 6.98 points to trade at 133.41. CF Industries Holdings Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 4.58%, 3.14 points to trade at 71.73. Allakos Inc shares fell to historic lows, falling 89.87%, 75.84 points to trade at 8.55. AgileThought Inc fell to historic lows, down 30.40%, 2,800 points to end at 6.410. CalAmp Corp fell to a 52-week low, down 25.78%, 2.55 points to trade at 7.34.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 11.33% to trade at 18.63.

Gold Futures for February delivery was up 0.89% or 15.95 to $ 1.804.65 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 2.64%, or 1.88, to $ 73.00 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for March delivery fell 0.03%, or 0.02, to trade at $ 75.58 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was flat 0.00% to hit 1.1324, while USD / JPY fell 0.01% to hit 114.10.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.42% at 96.085.

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IFX Gertrude
12-24-2021, 06:17 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 0.55%

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At the close in New York, the Dow Jones gained 0.55%, the S&P 500 rose 0.62% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.85%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Caterpillar Inc, which increased in price by 4.05 points (2.00%), to close at around 206.20. Dow Inc added 1.68% or 0.91 points to end trade at 55.14. Honeywell International Inc rose 1.67% or 3.38 points to close at 205.22.

The biggest losers were Visa Inc Class A, which fell 0.61% or 1.34 points to end the session at 216.62. Merck & Company Inc is up 0.56% or 0.43 points to end at 75.73 and Walmart Inc is 0.22% or 0.31 points down to 139. , 49.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 at the end of today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 5.76% to 1.067.00, ViacomCBS Inc, which gained 4.80% to close at 30.58, and shares Micron Technology Inc rose 4.52% to end the session at 94.42.

The biggest losers were Coterra Energy Inc, which fell 1.82% to close at 19.39. Hologic Inc shed 1.42% to end the session at 76.12. Pfizer Inc was down 1.41% to 58.71.

The growth leaders among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of 22nd Century Group Inc, which rose 38.64% to the level of 3.050, Oncology Institute Inc, which gained 38.46%, to close at 10.44, and Pasithea Therapeutics Corp rose 36.73% to trade at 2.01 at the close.

The biggest losers were InnovAge Holding Corp, which fell 35.64% to close at 5.31. Jupiter Wellness Inc shed 24.89% to trade at 0.954. American Virtual Cloud Technologies Inc was down 24.00% to 1,900.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that went up (2,289) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (971), while the quotations of 126 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2679 companies rose in price, 1163 declined, and 181 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.60% to 17.96, hitting a fresh monthly low.

Gold Futures for February delivery was up 0.42% or 7.65 to $ 1.809.85 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, WTI crude for February delivery rose 1.32%, or 0.96, to $ 73.72 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for March delivery rose 0.01%, or 0.01, to trade at $ 76.61 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.03% to hit 1.1331, while USD / JPY was up 0.04% to hit 114.41.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.02% at 96.035.

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IFX Gertrude
12-27-2021, 07:24 AM
Czech crown shows highs

The Czech koruna paired with the euro strengthened in holiday trading on Friday to its highest level since February 2020, adding weight after the central bank raised interest rates for the third time in a row this week.

Czech crown shows highs

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Recall that the local exchange is not working on the eve of Christmas.

The koruna is trading 0.4% higher at 25.00 against the euro at 14:36 GMT. The currency briefly broke through the psychological support level of 25 euros for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic hit the markets in early 2020.

The koruna was the most profitable currency in Central Europe in 2021 with an increase of 4.9%, which once again confirms the thesis about the benefits of the early introduction of rate hikes by the Central Bank.

The exchange rate rose 0.9% after the Czech National Bank surprised the markets on Wednesday by raising the rate by 100 basis points more than expected and said it was ready to strengthen its influence even more to contain the growth of inflation.

The bank's main discount rate now stands at 3.75%, the highest level since February 2008. This is 300 basis points higher than the rate just three months ago.

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IFX Gertrude
12-28-2021, 06:21 AM
European stock markets in Europe ended trading with growth

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Markets continue to be heavily influenced by the worldwide spread of the new COVID-19 strain omicron. Investors are closely monitoring the incidence rate in European countries and are worried that new surges could lead to a slowdown in economic activity.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.6% to 485.49 points. Nevertheless, the value of the index is still below the high of 489.95 points reached on November 17.

France's CAC 40 Index added 0.8%, Germany's DAX Index added 0.5%, while Spain's IBEX and Italy's FTSE MIB gained 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.

The leaders of growth among the components of Stoxx 600 on Monday came the shares of the Norwegian NEL ASA, working with renewable energy sources (+ 5.6%), the Swiss biopharmaceutical Idorsia Ltd. (+ 4.4%), as well as the Swedish online casino operator Evolution Gaming Group AB (+ 5%).

The stock quotes of the Swiss Roche Holding AG (+ 1.1%) also rose on the news that the US authorities approved the emergency use of the company's home tests for COVID-19, showing the result within 20 minutes.

CNH Industrial N.V., an international industrial group that announced the separation of its truck division Iveco Group, gained 2.7%. Iveco shares will begin trading on the Milan Stock Exchange on January 3.

In addition, shares of the main European technology companies completed trading in positive territory: ASML Holding (+ 1%), SAP (+ 0.7%), Nordic Semiconductor ASA (+ 3.5%) and Infineon Technologies (+ 2.4%) ...

The leaders of the fall in the Stoxx 600 were shares of the Swiss online pharmacy chain Zur Rose Group AG (-2.9%), the Danish energy Oersted A / S (-2.4%) and the operator of the food delivery service HelloFresh SE (-2.1 %).

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IFX Gertrude
12-29-2021, 05:55 AM
US stocks mixed at close of trade; Dow Jones up 0.26%

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At the close in New York, the Dow Jones rose 0.26% to a 1-month high, the S&P 500 lost 0.10% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.56%.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were the shares of Walt Disney Company, which rose 2.40 points (1.57%), to close at 155.20. Boeing Co added 1.46 points or 1.46% to end trades at 206.13. Walmart Inc rose 1.44% or 2.02 points to end at 142.78.

The biggest losers were Salesforce.com Inc, which fell 1.10% or 2.85 points to end the session at 255.45. Nike Inc is up 0.69% or 1.16 points to end at 166.42, while Apple Inc is down 0.58% or 1.04 points to 179.29. ... The top gainers among the components of the S&P 500 at the end of today's trading were Campbell Soup Company, which rose 2.80% to 43.36, Ball Corporation, which gained 2.59% to close at 94.30, and American Airlines Group shares rose 2.04% to end the session at 18.54.

The biggest losers were DexCom Inc, which fell 7.09% to close at 529.50. Etsy Inc shed 3.46% to end the session at 221.73. Penn National Gaming Inc was down 2.89% to 49.34. The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Insignia Systems Inc, which rose 64.82% to 19.020, ShiftPixy Inc, which gained 43.09% to close at 1.120, and Pop Culture Group Co Ltd, which were up 35.88% to end the session at 2.31.

The biggest losers were Biofrontera Inc, which fell 29.50% to close at 8.10. Powerbridge Technologies Co Ltd shed 25.45% to end the session at 0.6933. Sensus Healthcare Inc was down 22.67% to 6.310.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (1,725) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,531), while the quotations of 136 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2,494 companies fell in price, 1,330 increased, and 182 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.79% to 17.54, hitting a fresh monthly low.

Gold Futures for February delivery was down 0.12% or 2.20 to $ 1.806.60 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities, WTI crude for February delivery rose 0.60%, or 0.45, to $ 76.02 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for March delivery rose 0.08%, or 0.06, to trade at $ 78.84 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.04% to hit 1.1313, while USD / JPY was up 0.00% to hit 114.82.

The US Dollar Index Futures was up 0.08% at 96.165.

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IFX Gertrude
12-31-2021, 07:15 AM
2021 was the best year for the US dollar

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Experts agree that this year has been the best for the US dollar, which has not experienced such victory over the past seven years. This currency enters the upcoming 2022 with a reserve of optimism, which it will retain for a long time.

The US currency completed the current year with growth against most of the key currencies. The dollar index, which reflects the USD exchange rate against a basket of six leading currencies, increased 6.8% over the year. Such a sharp growth was shown only by the Canadian dollar due to the increase in oil prices by 50% over the year. According to Saxo Bank analysts, the sustained recovery of the US and Canadian economies will lead to an early rate hike from both central banks. Saxo Bank also believes that the consequence of the Fed's aggressive policy will be the tightening of conditions in the financial markets. If this scenario occurs, the US dollar will outperform other currencies as a safe haven asset.

Experts said that this year was the best for the US currency for the last seven years. The US dollar has shown high efficiency, often holding the leading positions. The surge in inflation, which has not been observed in the United States over the past 40 years, has become the driver of this growth.

At the same time, the US dollar was supported by record investments in it by large hedge funds. This contributed to the rapid growth of the US currency. Moreover, experts consider the doubling of the pace of curtailing the Federal Reserve's asset repurchase program to be the catalyst for the recovery of this currency. The high interest rates and the course for further tightening of the monetary policy provide invaluable support to the US currency.

Amid growing concerns about inflation, the regulator may raise the key rate four times instead of the planned three in 2022. According to experts, a 1% rate hike will start to significantly affect economic activity. Experts expect the first Fed rate increase in March, with a 54% probability. By the end of 2022, the probability of two rate hikes is 90%, and a threefold increase is 66%.

Analysts are sure that the inertia towards the strengthening of the US dollar will remain at the beginning of the new year. At the same time, the European currency will remain in the range of 1.1000-1.1500. The reasons for this are the Fed's curtailment of stimulus and the ECB's "dovish" strategy in relation to monetary policy. On Friday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1324, slightly losing its position. However, experts expect the euro's long-term downward trend to reverse by mid-2022.

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ING's currency strategists are more confident in the growth of the US dollar more than the euro. The bank believes that the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed will cause the US dollar to rise. However, this sharp appreciation is constrained by the fact that the markets have put two to three rate hikes in their value. At the same time, analysts remind us that a fourfold rise is not excluded. Morgan Stanley currency strategists believe that in the second half of 2022, the US currency will partially plunge. However, most experts adhere to positive forecasts regarding the US currency.

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IFX Gertrude
01-03-2022, 08:35 AM
Who will take the lead between the US dollar and Chinese yuan?

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The eternal rivals, the American and Chinese currencies, reasserted themselves at the beginning of the new year. Analysts said that they have rejoined the race to take control of the global financial market.

Experts believe that the yuan has quite high chances in relation to the US dollar. Many analysts view the Chinese currency as a successor of the American one, which can take the place of the global reserve means of payment. This gives confidence to the yuan and adds nervousness to the US dollar, although no one doubts the strength of the latter. It can be recalled that the US currency showed the best result in six years at the end of 2021, although it slightly lost its position at the close of the final trading day of the past year.

In the long term, experts admit that the US dollar's decline will be moderate, but not very loud. The value of the US dollar is declining against the background of the gradual recovery of the global economy after the curtailment of lockdowns caused by COVID-19. Other reasons for the potential decline will be increased political tensions between the United States and Europe, as well as the aggressive policy of the US towards China and Mexico. Experts also highlighted that the increased pressure from Washington on the above-mentioned trading partners with the use of anti-dumping measures and sanctions contributes to the devaluation of the USD.

Currently, the Chinese currency, which operates "quietly," will wait for its finest hour. By choosing the moment when the US dollar will weaken the most, the yuan will take advantage of the situation and press it out on the global financial market. Similar attempts were made last year, but they were unsuccessful. But at the end of 2021, the yuan was among the leaders among the currencies of emerging markets.

According to analysts, the US dollar's "protective function" in the world financial market over the past decade is gradually weakening. Its loss of the "safe haven" asset status will continue due to the transition of a number of countries to settlements in national currencies in international trade. The Fed's upcoming action to tighten monetary policy also adds pressure. Experts believe that this increases the risks of the devaluation of the US currency.

As for the Euro currency, this year can also bring disappointment amid the Fed's rate hike. The past year seemed extremely unfortunate for the euro, so the markets are worried that this might happen again as the ECB continues to adhere to soft monetary policy. According to the President of the regulator Christine Lagarde, tightening monetary policy is now unreasonable, since it interferes with economic recovery. The European regulator does not plan to raise interest rates this 2022.

The euro is currently inferior to the US dollar again, and the EUR/USD pair is capable of returning to the range of 1.0850-1.0900 and staying there for a long time. However, experts expect the pair to recover in the coming month, although they are not hoping for steady growth. On Monday morning, the EUR USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1338, attempting to keep its recovered positions.

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There may be no winners or losers in the global financial market this year. The US currency has impressive potential to maintain its strength, but the Chinese one is strong due to its wait-and-see strategy. At the same time, experts summarize that both currencies claiming leadership are capable of peacefully coexisting in the global financial space.

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IFX Gertrude
01-04-2022, 07:08 AM
EUR/USD: US dollar's victory is not an indication of the euro's decline

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The US dollar started the year on a positive note, pulling the European currency upward, which is on the verge of falling again. At the same time, it seems that the never-ending imbalance in the EUR/USD pair is not an annoying misunderstanding, but an important step towards its further development.

January 2022 started with sharp growth for the US currency amid expectations of an increase in the Fed's key rate and curtailment of stimulus. Market quotes have already incorporated the Fed's key measures the first rate hike by May and two more at the end of 2022. Later, the US dollar was expected to decline moderately, which did not affect the overall optimistic picture. At the same time, the dollar index has shown impressive daily gains for the last two months. A sharp rise in the yields of long-term US Treasury bonds, which increased by 12.5 points, reaching a record of 1.642%, primarily supported the US dollar. This is the highest figure since the end of November 2021.

On another note, the Euro currency has to defend its positions again in order not to be an outsider. European markets started the week with a moderate rise, gaining about 1%. On Tuesday morning, the euro traded around the level of 1.1306, exceeding the weekly low of 1.1279. The EUR/USD pair was moving around the range of 1.1303-1.1304, striving for new highs, but later lost its positions along the way.

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Analysts said that the EUR/USD pair temporarily found itself in a bear trap at the beginning of the week but managed to get out of it. However, there is still bearish pressure on Tuesday, leaving the pair vulnerable to market volatility. Based on preliminary calculations, the temporary resistance line in the EUR/USD pair is located near 1.1398 (55-day SMA), and the next resistance level is at 1.1430. Its breakdown will significantly weaken the bearish pressure. The implementation of such a scenario in the short term will help the pair to reach new peaks.

Barclays Bank analysts stated that the aggressive scenario of rate hikes in the US is strong support for the US currency. Currency strategists assess such a development as the most likely. An additional catalyst for such growth may be the minutes of the Fed's December meeting, which is expected to be published this week. According to experts, this will clarify the issue of raising rates by the Fed and the timing of stabilization of its balance sheet. On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released in the United States, demonstrating the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the country. Positive data will support the US dollar, which will pull up the euro again.

Many analysts are asking questions: is the current difficulties of the euro amid a winning US dollar a pattern? The situation is developing as it should, and so, will the periodic imbalances arising in the EUR/USD pair will not cause damage to the euro? The answer is yes at the moment. However, a moderately calm situation may completely change, and then the fragile balance in the EUR/USD pair will be disturbed.

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IFX Gertrude
01-05-2022, 07:59 AM
What kind of shocking surprise can gold present this year?

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Gold's price increased yesterday, despite the growth of the US dollar and the yield on US government bonds. Some experts believe that it will bring such pleasant surprises more than once in 2022.

On Tuesday, prices for the precious metal closed higher despite the above-mentioned reasons. The dollar index rose by 0.1% against its major competitors. The indicator reached 96.286 points.

The growth of the US dollar was facilitated by the rapid dynamics of US debt securities. Yesterday, the yield on 2-year government bonds reached its highest in 22 months and amounted to 0.796%. The strengthening of expectations of the Fed's more aggressive policy acted as support.

On January 4, the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said that the rate of growth in prices in the United States exceeded the forecast and that the acceleration of inflation was longer than economists expected. In this regard, the official believes that the Central Bank of America will raise interest rates this year twice, and not thrice.

The hawkish comments put some pressure on gold quotes. However, the yellow asset found strong support from economic data.

The Institute for Supply Management released a report on the level of business activity in the US manufacturing sector on Tuesday. According to statistics, the PMI in December fell to 58.7 from 61.1 recorded in the previous month. This is the lowest growth rate in almost a year. Economists had expected the indicator to be 60.

According to analysts, the slowdown in US business activity provoked a new strain of COVID-19. This is a very favorable factor for gold, which is traditionally perceived by investors as a safe haven asset. Meanwhile, Omicron infections continue to rise in America. Another record was reported at the beginning of the week: the figure was 1,083,948 new cases, Johns Hopkins University reported.

Coronavirus news remains a powerful trigger for this precious metal. Gold is growing as stricter restrictions are introduced in some countries due to the Omicron strain.

So, yesterday, February gold futures rose in price by 0.8%, or $ 14.50. At the close of the session, it traded at $ 1,814.60. Most experts believe that at this stage, the precious metal retains the potential to rise in the short term.

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There is also an opinion that gold will rise in the future. Analysts Byron Wien and Joe Zidle are confident that the yellow asset will begin to regain its status soon as the main hedge instrument against inflation. They stated this in the article "10 surprises of 2022".

Interestingly, the publication appeared after gold showed the worst annual figure in 6 years, falling by 3.6% in 2021.

An unexpected forecast for 2022 suggests that investors will seek protection from problematic and more persistent inflation in the yellow asset. This will allow gold to rally to a new all-time high, even though the metal will continue to compete with cryptocurrencies.

B. Wien and J. Zidle expect gold prices to rise by 20% over the course of the year. If their scenario comes true, gold will trade at $ 2,160. Experts themselves estimate the probability of their prediction being fulfilled at more than 50%.

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IFX Gertrude
01-06-2022, 07:31 AM
Fed's hawkish comments resulted in gold's decline

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Omicron continues to set records, rapidly spreading across the planet. Against this background, investors are looking for protection from gold. The value of the precious metal sharply increased on Wednesday.

Yesterday, the yellow asset continued its upward movement and rose for the second session in a row. Compared to its growth of 0.8% gold surged by 0.6% during the middle of the week. The increase in monetary terms was $ 10.50, and the final price was $ 1,825.10.

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The rise in quotes was facilitated by the decline in key US stock indices and the weakening of the US dollar. So, during trading, the NASDAQ Composite indicator plummeted by more than 1%, and the US dollar fell by 0.4% against its main competitors.

The increase in cases with the new strain of COVID-19 exerted pressure on the indicators. On the other hand, analyst Lukman Otunuga notes that the alarming coronavirus statistics accelerated the flight of investors to a safe place to the gold market.

Amid increased coronavirus risk, the precious metal showed impressive dynamics yesterday, but the celebration did not last long.

Following the close of trading, the minutes of the Fed's meeting on monetary policy issues in December was published. Hawkish comments by officials of the US central bank brought down gold prices to a 2-week low.

Fed officials noted that a strong economic recovery and high inflation in the US may require an earlier and faster-than-expected rate hike.

According to the updated data, the US regulator expects real GDP to increase by 4% over the next 12 months. The PCE inflation forecast was raised from 2.2% to 2.6% in 2022.

At the same time, the updated dot chart showed that amid record inflation, Fed officials intend to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a point this year.

According to analyst Brien Lundin, any hint that the first rate increase will happen earlier is actually not bearish, but bullish for gold.

The expert draws attention to the fact that the precious metal often rises when the Fed rates increase. Therefore, the initial rate hike in December 2015 ended a long bearish trend in the gold market. After that, the asset showed a confident positive trend for several months.

Now, investors are waiting for the Fed to comment on Omicron's impact on the economy. This could happen as early as next week, as Jerome Powell is due to address the US Senate Banking Committee in a meeting on his re-nomination as head of the central bank.

If the Fed chairman's excitement over a new strain of coronavirus turns out to be high, the price of the precious metal will soar. Otherwise, we are waiting for a further drop in quotes.

However, gold's movement in the short term may be affected by statistics from the US labor market. The US employment report will be published tomorrow. According to economists' forecasts, the number of new jobs in the US in December will amount to 422 thousand. This is almost 2 times more than in November. If the expectations are met, the yellow asset will most likely continue to decline.

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IFX Gertrude
01-07-2022, 08:07 AM
Gold has good prospects in the long-term

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Gold suddenly went out of the way after starting 2022 positively. However, experts consider the current fall short-term, expecting the yellow metal to rise in the long term. The current.

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IFX Gertrude
01-10-2022, 08:10 AM
Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar still dominates other major currencies

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Europe's single currency cannot outperform the US dollar. This was stated by Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank. One of the main reasons is that the European regulator is the most static central bank in the world. Thus, the European Union's benchmark interest rate has remained at zero for quite some time, i.e. has not changed since March 2016. Furthermore, ECB head Christine Lagarde sees no reason to raise interest rates in 2022.

According to Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation rose to 4.9% in November, the highest in 25 years. Jakobsen believes that the EU economy can grow faster than the economies of other countries or show a current account surplus. The surplus is falling due to obvious difficulties in the services sector. This also applies to Germany, the eurozone's largest economy.

As for the US dollar, according to the SWIFT, it was still able to hold onto its position as the main currency in the international settlement ranking in November. Thus, the US dollar gained 39.16%. That means it rose by 1.53% in 12 months. It has strengthened due to the widening interest rate gap as well as inflation dynamics in the US compared to other major markets such as Japan and Europe.

The euro was clearly underperforming. It gained 37.66%, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.22%. Among the leaders were the British pound, Japanese yen, and Chinese renminbi.

A monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, which is expected by analysts in March, will give the dollar the strongest support, making it extremely difficult for most currencies to rise against the US dollar in the coming months.

It is the interest rate differential, not the coronavirus, that will determine sentiment in the major currency markets in the near future. The vast majority of analysts polled by Reuters are confident that fluctuations in the currency markets will become noticeably greater over the next three months. Notably, this confidence applies not only to the currencies of the major markets but also to emerging market currencies.

After an interest rate hike already in the first month of spring, the US regulator is expected to start reducing its assets. The dollar could then feel superior to the other major currencies. By the way, financial markets expect at least three rate hikes in the US this year.

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IFX Gertrude
01-11-2022, 08:05 AM
Is the EUR/USD pair preparing for a new battle?

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Some analysts explain the short-term lull in the EUR/USD pair by grouping before a new surge. First of all, this concerns the US dollar, in the shadow of which the euro resides.

The US currency started the current year with a rise and is trying to consolidate in an upward trend. It already succeeds in this without huge efforts, contrary to the euro, which is still lying low. However, the US dollar remained inactive, weakly reacting to what was happening. On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1341. The pair is now dominated by a bullish mood, which can change anytime. The possible targets for the bulls are 1.1364, 1.1385, and 1.1442.

Currently, the US dollar is moving in the middle of the current range against major world currencies, as markets are waiting for the Fed's decisions on the timing and pace of normalization of monetary policy. The regulator keeps the markets in suspense, continuing the "hawkish" strategy launched at the end of December 2021. Experts are worried about the Fed's excessive enthusiasm, which is ready to use every fund to curb the powerful inflation.

Amid the Federal Reserve's high activity, the smoother actions of the ECB seem unnecessarily slow. Analysts fear that the European regulator will lose time to normalize the economic situation in the region. This development of events will seriously weaken the euro, which somewhat looks neglected right now. Experts consider Europe's sharp rise in gas prices to be an additional negative factor for the euro. The strengthening of this trend contributes to the further decline of the euro and the strengthening of its rival in the EUR/USD pair. After all, the US currency is given a head start in anticipation of a rate hike in March 2022 and an accelerated transition to cut stimulus.

The cycle of key rate hikes launched by the Fed in the middle of this year will clearly strengthen the US currency. According to experts, the main factors that support it are the tightening of monetary policy and the potential outflow of capital from emerging markets. It can be recalledd that the continued stimulus from the regulator and the negative US trade balance contribute to the weakening of the US dollar. Analysts said that the US dollar strengthening is impossible without tightening monetary policy.

The current instability in the world is pushing experts to negative forecasts. Many of them admit that currency battles will emerge in the near future. The implementation of such a scenario will lead to the devaluation of national currencies in relation to foreign ones. The "core" of such a war can be the US dollar, around which the entire financial world revolves. It is possible that this currency will take the victory again or share the throne with the euro. Moreover, excessive inflation could be the catalyst for the financial battle. According to analysts, the EUR/USD pair is highly likely to converge on the global markets.

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IFX Gertrude
01-12-2022, 07:51 AM
Did the Fed cause the US dollar to collapse?

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The US dollar dropped after the Fed's statements about the duration of the normalization of monetary policy. During this process, the indicated currency risks losing its advantages as the main safe-haven currency.

On Wednesday, the US currency collapsed to its lowest level since November 2021. The main reason for this was the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who allowed a gradual increase in interest rates amid the continuous high inflation in the United States. The regulator's management believes that it will take several months to make a decision to cut the central bank's balance sheet by $ 9 trillion.

In a similar situation, this currency found itself in a slight stupor state, trying to cope with the current losses. Powell's statements that the US economy "does not need aggressive monetary stimulus measures" exerted additional pressure. The central bank is ready to start normalizing monetary policy, but this process will take time. During the speech of the Fed chairman, the markets expected to find signals about the possible timing of the first rate hike. However, the situation remained unclear, as the head of the regulator stressed that the Fed did not focus on the timing of amendments to the monetary policy and did not make decisions on reducing the balance sheet.

The tension of the general background of the global financial market shocked the US dollar. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was in the range of 1.1373-1.1374. At the same time, the Euro currency has slightly risen since the close of the previous session, in which it was trading at the level of 1.1364.

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IFX Gertrude
01-13-2022, 07:21 AM
EUR/USD: Euro's gradual movements are more effective than the US dollar's surges

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The US currency, which has fallen again after some macro statistics, finds it difficult to maintain balance in the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, the euro is having a hard time keeping up with the US dollar, so it prefers to move slowly but surely towards achieving its goal.

Currently, the market is evaluating the US inflation data released yesterday. According to the report, consumer prices in the country in December 2021 increased by 0.5%, accelerating to 7% year-on-year. The key index gained 0.6% over the month, rising to 5.5% year-on-year. As for the prices excluding energy carriers and food, more than 1.7% was added in three months.

Based on the data obtained, economists concluded that high inflation penetrates into the very core of the economy. In this situation, the Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates in March 2022. The regulator fears not only soaring inflation but also the "overheated" US labor market. The Fed officials consider high inflation a significant threat to a full economic recovery, so they are ready to raise interest rates since there is no longer a need for emergency monetary support.

As a response to the published macro data, the US dollar sharply declined. It is worth noting that the EUR/USD pair passed through the upper border of the range 1.1200-1.1350 again before the release of the report. To date, the upward movement of the pair continues. The EUR/USD pair rose by 0.5% immediately after the release of inflation data, leaving the level of 1.1400 behind. On Thursday morning, it was trading at the level of 1.1444, trying to break new borders.

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IFX Gertrude
01-14-2022, 07:20 AM
US dollar is trying to resist the decline amid statistics and high inflation

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The US currency has to fight the collapse again at the end of the week, resisting the negative impact of several factors, including the problem of macro statistics. Nevertheless, experts are confident that it will recover without much loss.

For a long time, this currency remains hostage to high US inflation. It can be recalled that the December macro statistics showed the highest core inflation over the past 40 years. The recent US CPI excluding food and energy in annual terms was 5.5%, which is higher than November's 4.9%. Current macro reports have shown that the expectation of the Fed's decisive action has reached a peak. The current situation practically sharply affected the US dollar, which is trying to resist the impact of negative factors.

It has now suffered significant losses, including a key technical breakthrough in the EUR/USD pair. On Thursday, the classic pair broke the resistance line around 1.1386, which limited the actions of the EUR/USD pair since November 2021. The reason for this is the sharp weakening of the US currency, recorded after the release of the December CPI. On Friday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1477, trying to keep its won positions.

Experts consider the level of 1.1500 to be the next important resistance area for the pair. This is the previous low of the EUR/USD pair recorded before its massive collapse last November. The current situation is much the same. Today, the US dollar hit its biggest weekly drop in eight months. The reason for this is a sharp reduction in long positions on the USD and the markets taking into account several Fed rate hikes in its price.

According to analysts, expectations of decisive action from the Fed do not matter much for the US dollar. Earlier, the US currency collapsed amid a sharp rise in the price of a number of commodities. The only "trump card" it has now will be another search for a safe haven if risk sentiment changes dramatically. The dynamics of this currency are significantly affected by inflation, and most often negatively. The Fed keeps the need to outpace its growth, and this tension has a negative impact on the American currency.

However, many experts are optimistic about the US dollar's medium and long-term prospects. Specialists believe that it will systematically strengthen, alternating ups and downs. Analysts summarize that this is facilitated by the continued growth of commodities and the global asset market.

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IFX Gertrude
01-17-2022, 08:16 AM
Musk says Tesla to accept dogecoin

On Friday, Musk announced on Twitter that Tesla Inc would accept Dogecoin as payment for its products, such as the Giga Texas belt buckle and mini-model electric cars.

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The news sent the value of Dogecoin soaring more than 14%. The move comes a month after Musk said Tesla would test out the digital token as a payment option.

Musk had already hit Bitcoin prices hard in the spring of 2021 with the same announcement, promising that the company would accept Bitcoins to buy its cars. However, he later changed his mind. So, some analysts believe this is Elon Musk's way of covering up the slump after the postponement of Cydertrack.

Thus, production of Tesla's much-anticipated Cybertruck will start in the first quarter of 2023, pushing back plans to start production in late 2022.

However, Tesla products, including the recently launched Cyberwhistle and Cyberquad for Kids, have been in steady demand and typically sell out within hours of being put up for sale, even when paid for in regular currencies. But some analysts are predicting a new surge in popularity for Tesla merchandise once token payment is introduced.

Due to Musk's tweets about Dogecoin, the little-known digital currency, which began as a social media joke, has become one of the most recognizable and well-growing tokens. Its price has risen by around 4,000% in 2021.

Last year, Tesla said it had bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoins. Musk also mentioned that he had Bitcoins and Dogecoins. However, as early as May, it was revealed that Elon had gotten rid of many cryptocurrency assets. This information confuses investors.

This may be an attempt to put competitive pressure on rivals, as traditional carmakers such as Ford Motor Co, as well as start-ups including Rivian Automotive, are set to launch their electric cars this year.

However, it is not yet clear how this trade move will be received by lawmakers, who have recently become concerned about crypto regulation.

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IFX Gertrude
01-18-2022, 06:42 AM
Stock markets up as China lowers interest rate

On Monday, global stock indices posted robust growth on positive news form China. It was reported that the People's Bank of China lowered its key interest rate in an effort to support the country's struggling economy. Today, the US stock market is closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Therefore, trading activity in Europe and China was rather low. Despite this fact, major stock indices still managed to reach local highs and lows.

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Thus, China's stock market closed the session with notable gains: the Shanghai Composite Index jumped by 0.6% to 3,541.7.

Dalian Haosen Equipment Manufacturing Co Ltd and Beijing Baolande Software Corp. topped the list of best performing shares.

The shares of Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co Ltd and Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co Ltd. Were among the losing ones.

A confident rise in the SSE Composite Index is attributed to higher-than-expected growth of the country's economy in the last quarter of 2021. At the same time, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, its GDP in Q4 was the lowest since mid-2020 (+4%).

In the third quarter of 2021, China's economy expanded by 4.9% compared to the same period in 2020. This was the reason why the central bank of China has unexpectedly cut its interest rate. Market analysts expect that in 2022 the measures taken by the central bank will help protect the economy against a significant slowdown.

As a reminder, at the beginning of 2021, the Chinese economy showed a steady rise after the coronavirus crisis. Yet, falling consumption in the last quarter of 2021 limited the pace of recovery.

Meanwhile, European stock markets opened another trading week in positive territory. Again, the data from China served as the main growth catalyst.

At the time of writing, the STOXX Europe 600 index increased by 0.35% to 482.8, the French CAC 40 added 0.42%, the German DAX rose by 0.22%, and the British FTSE 100 Index gained 0.61 %.

The worst result was posted by the largest food manufacturer - Unilever: its shares lost 6.7%. Meanwhile, the Swiss financial conglomerate Credit Suisse Group AG also showed a noticeable decline in share prices (-2.1%).

Among the leaders were Spanish bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., with a rise of 0.5%, and European airline group Air France-KLM, whose shares added 0.8%.

According to analysts, the policy of China's central bank and its effect on the global economy will remain the main driver for markets this week.

Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to earnings reports from the largest US corporations. Goldman Sachs will publish its data on Tuesday, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble on Wednesday, and American Airlines and Netflix on Thursday.

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IFX Gertrude
01-19-2022, 07:07 AM
Will the euro sharply rise again?

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The Euro continues to compete with the US dollar, trying to leave the outsider levels. However, these attempts are most often unsuccessful. The euro's short-term growth does not have a significant impact on its overall pessimistic mood.

Over the past year, the price of the EUR/USD pair has declined by 6.9%. The weakest link of the pair, which is the Euro currency, got the most blow. Experts said that the euro should not count on major achievements this year. Its weakness contributes to the excessive caution of the European regulator.

Currently, the Fed and other central banks have expressed their readiness to normalize monetary policy as soon as possible. Experts stressed that this contrasts sharply with the ECB's inaction. This strategy of the European regulator contributes to the further decline of the euro and increased inflation.

Markets have high hopes for the upcoming changes in the Fed's strategy, which include cutting stimulus and raising the key rate. The currency market is now under pressure from the growth of the USD and the increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The US dollar's strengthening prevents the euro from rising, but the latter does not give up.

Moreover, the growth of the yield of US government bonds supports the US currency before the Fed meeting. On Wednesday, it strengthened its position after a sharp rise in the yield of US government bonds. Markets are waiting nervously for the Fed to raise interest rates, and this sends the EUR/USD pair to new frontiers.

In the current situation, the pair found itself under bearish pressure, while the US currency strengthened amid the rising treasury yields. On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair managed to reach the level of 1.1400, but further gains stalled. Experts said that the pair failed to develop an upward movement. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1331, trying to rise higher, but failed.

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IFX Gertrude
01-20-2022, 09:08 AM
Pound's growth contains a downward reversal

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Experts found signs of a downward movement in the dynamics of the British currency, which rapidly increased after the publication of economic data in the country. Analysts say that a potential reversal to low values will create a price fluctuation for the pound.

At the end of 2021, the pound rose intensely after the Bank of England's interest rate hike. This year, the British currency tried to stay in an upward trend, acting with varying success. Analysts are afraid of negative changes in the dynamics of the pound, which the British regulator is able to influence. The revision of the current monetary policy is possible after the release of disappointing macro data on the UK economy.

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IFX Yvonne
01-21-2022, 10:49 AM
Employment reports do not meet the expectations of the Fed and the markets

According to the reports, the total number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits exceeded a three-month maximum. Experts believe that the latest wave of COVID-19 infections is to blame, which has disrupted only the revived business activity, signs of revival of which are showing job growth.

Employment reports do not meet the expectations of the Fed and the markets.

Despite increased labor demand, initial jobless claims rose 55,000 to a seasonally adjusted 286,000 for the week ended January 15. This is the maximum since mid-October, which was reported on Thursday by representatives of the Ministry of Labor. The overall increase was the largest since July last year.

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"Even with the usual buzz in the numbers, they seem to reflect the record increase in COVID-19 cases from Omicron," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union of Virginia.

"Fortunately, Omicron is at its peak, and if past models persist, applications should decline rapidly in the next two to three weeks," he said.

In the meantime, economists are disappointed, as the median forecast fluctuated at the figure of 220,000 applications for the last week.

Unadjusted benefit applications declined last week. However, this decrease was less than expected (taking into account seasonal factors that the government uses to exclude seasonal fluctuations from the data).

Applications increased by 6,075 in California. But they fell by 14,011 in New York. There were also big drops in Missouri and Texas.

The United States reports an average of 732,245 new cases of omicron coronavirus infection per day, according to official government data. However, there are signs that in some regions, including hard-hit New York, the number of cases is beginning to decrease.

Applications may begin to decline as the number of cases of infection decreases.

And yet it may not just be a seasonal outbreak.

Thus, conditions in the labor market are tightening. Employers are in desperate need of workers: 10.6 million vacancies were opened at the end of November.

But what if some of these vacancies have unadjusted wages for inflation? It is known that wage growth always lags behind inflation. Taking into account the huge migration of employees noticed in December last year, it is possible that the most "delicious" vacancies were dismantled, leaving former employers with empty jobs. How competitive are these 10 million vacancies? This hidden factor does not allow us to estimate the actual capacity of the employment market.

Currently, the unemployment rate is at a 22-month low of 3.9%, which is a sign that the labor market is at or close to maximum employment. The question remains, where do 10 million vacancies come from if the real sector is going through hard times due to supply disruptions and the rise in the cost of components?

Recall that in December, the economy added 199,000 jobs, which is the lowest figure for the year. This shows that the economy has slowed down the recovery. At the same time, the last two years have "taken away" 2.2 million able-bodied residents from the United States. Given the weak reflation, it is not entirely clear why there is such a stir around the search for labor?

The application data covers the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the non-agricultural component of wages in the employment report for January. At first glance, applications significantly exceed their level in mid-December. However, the actual conditions may differ from those described in the application.

Along with this obvious discrepancy between the two indicators, experts note that the shortage of workers and disruptions caused by Omicron due to absenteeism, reduction of operations, or temporary closure of enterprises may lead to wage growth remaining moderate this month. If this happens, at the end of January, we will see a new surge in applications for unemployment benefits, which will offset the gains from the effect of the weakening of the coronavirus.

The report on secondary applications showed that the number of people receiving benefits after the first week of assistance increased from 84,000 to 1.635 million in the week ending January 8. These so-called continuing applications remained below 2 million for the eighth week in a row. However, the growth of extended benefits is impressive.

These figures suggest that the reports are lying: there are much fewer jobs that are competitive and ready to accept people today, otherwise, we would have seen an impressive increase in production and sales, which contradicts the data. My opinion remains the same: the government is wishful thinking to quickly introduce an upward regime of interest rates, putting a barrier to rampant inflation.

In the meantime, the latest reports on applications will hit the indices, although they are still growing. The yield of 10-year benchmark bonds is also rising, and the spot dollar rose by 0.03%. The euro/dollar pair is falling, the indices are also likely to turn around during the American session.

IFX Gertrude
01-24-2022, 06:37 AM
European stock markets ended trading on Friday in the red

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Stock indices of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region closed in the red on Friday, a similar trend has developed in the US stock market. Analysts attribute the fall in world markets to the prospects for a more aggressive than expected increase in rates by the Federal Reserve System.

Meanwhile, retail sales in the UK fell 3.7% in December from the previous month, showing the biggest drop since January, according to data from the National Statistics Office (ONS). Analysts on average had forecast a decline of just 0.6%. In annual terms, sales decreased by 0.9% instead of the expected growth of 3.4%.

Despite the decline in December, retail sales this month were up 2.6% compared to pre-pandemic February 2020. For 2021 as a whole, sales jumped 5.1%, the fastest pace since 2004.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the Stoxx Europe 600 region fell by 1.8% to 474.44 points as a result of trading. At the same time, all sectoral sub-indices declined, the financial and technology sectors the most.

Losses of the indicator for the entire past week amounted to 1.5% on fears of tightening the monetary policy of the world's central banks and increased tensions between Russia and the United States.

The German DAX index fell by 1.9% during the day, the French CAC 40 - by 1.75%, the British FTSE 100 - by 1.2%. Spain's IBEX 35 shed 1.4% and Italy's FTSE MIB shed 1.9%.

German Siemens Energy AG shares plunged 16.6% on Friday after Siemens Gamesa subsidiary Renewable Energy SA released preliminary financial results for the first quarter.

The price of Siemens Gamesa fell 14%. The company posted an adjusted EBIT loss of 309m against a profit of 121m in the same period a year earlier, while its revenue fell to 1.8bn from 2.3bn. Siemens Gamesa also downgraded its forecasts for the main financial indicators for the 2022 financial year.

The fall leader in the Stoxx Europe 600 index, in addition to Siemens and Siemens Gamesa, was the Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas Wind Systems A/S (-9%). Also, steel ThyssenKrupp AG (-7.2%) and e-commerce platform InPost S.A. (-8.6%).

The energy sector went into the red zone following the fall in oil prices, including the value of Royal Dutch Shell Plc decreased by 1.7% and BP Plc - by 1.8%.

TotalEnergies on Friday announced its decision to pull out of a natural gas project in Myanmar and stop doing business in the country, which suffered a military coup in February 2021. The company will not receive financial compensation, its share in the Yadana field and the MGTC gas pipeline will be distributed among project partners. Capitalization of TotalEnergies for the day fell by 2.1%.

In addition, securities of the semiconductor industry, including ASML Holding (-1.7%) and AMS (-3.6%), as well as software developer SAP (-1.2%), fell in price.

Meanwhile, the shares of the German developer of software for remote connection TeamViewer AG (+4.3%) and the Polish retailer Dino Polska (+3.6%) grew most significantly

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IFX Gertrude
01-25-2022, 09:16 AM
EUR/USD: the euro suffers from uncertainty about the Fed's future steps, and the dollar wonders when the central bank will present it with a gift in the form of an interest rate hike

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Less than two weeks ago, the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank's plans to raise interest rates would not lead to a slowdown in the growth of the national economy, allowed market participants to consider the issue of tightening monetary policy in the United States resolved.

Fears that the Fed could throw the stock market under the bus to eradicate high inflation led to the strongest weekly drop in the S&P 500 index since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020 (by 5.7%).

The shares suffered due to investors' concern for the fate of the corporate sector, which will lose cheap money during the deterioration of macro statistics in the country.

Thus, retail sales in the United States in December decreased by 1.9% compared to the previous month, although experts did not expect a change in the indicator.

Last month, the volume of industrial production in the country decreased by 0.1% with an expected growth of 0.3%.

The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in January sank to 68.8 points from 70.6 points recorded in December, which was the second lowest level in a decade.

The number of initial applications of Americans for unemployment benefits for the week ending January 15 increased by 55,000, reaching 286,000, which is the highest since mid-October.

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IFX Gertrude
01-26-2022, 09:05 AM
Most Asian stock markets are trading in the red

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The Federal Reserve may signal to markets that it is ready to start raising interest rates in March following its January meeting, which ends on Wednesday, analysts say. This will be the first rate hike since 2018.

The easing of monetary policy was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. But now the Fed may also say that it is considering other options for tightening monetary policy to combat rising inflation, CNBC notes.

A growing number of Fed officials and Wall Street economists see the possibility of more than three hikes in the base interest rate by the US Central Bank this year against the backdrop of a significant rise in consumer prices. They explain these forecasts as signals that inflation in the US, which is at a maximum for almost 40 years, affects all segments of the economy, while the labor market is growing rapidly.

The Japanese Nikkei fell by 0.4% by 8:36 GMT+2.

Among the components of the index, the shares of Idemitsu Kosan Co. are the leaders of decline. Ltd. (-8.8%), Shionogi & Co. Ltd. (-5.9%) and Ricoh Co. Ltd. (-4.9%).

Shares of the metallurgical company Japan Steel Works Ltd. lose 2.5%, shares of IT company Rakuten Group Inc. grow by 0.7%, investment SoftBank Group Corp. add 1.8%.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell by 0.1% by 8:45 GMT+2, while the Shanghai Shanghai Composite rose by 0.3%.

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd (-7.4%), Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. are the decline leaders in Hang Seng. (-6.5%) and Li Ning Co. Ltd.(-3.08%).

Shares of automaker Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are cheaper by 2.3%, technology company JD.com Inc. - grow by 1.4%.

South Korean Kospi lost 0.15% by 8:45 GMT+2.

Shares of automaker Kia Corp. (KS:000270) up 1.8%, shares of Hyundai Motor Co. decrease by 2.1%.

The cost of chip and electronics manufacturer Samsung Electronics Co. is down 0.8%, its rival LG Corp. grows by 0.1%.

Australian stock exchanges are closed due to the holiday (Australia Day).

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IFX Gertrude
01-27-2022, 08:11 AM
US stock indices ended trading without a single dynamics

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 129.64 points (0.38%) by the close of trading to 34,168.09 points.

The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 6.52 points (0.15%) to 4349.93 points.

The Nasdaq Composite increased 2.82 points (0.02%) to 13542.12.

The Fed kept the interest rate on federal funds (federal funds rate) in the range from 0% to 0.25% per annum. The decision coincided with the forecasts of economists and market participants.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed aims to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% in the long term. To support this goal, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0-0.25%.

At the same time, since inflation is well above 2% per annum with a strong labor market situation, committee members expect that it will soon be appropriate to raise the target rate range. At the same time, the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, during a press conference following the meeting, noted that FOMC members intend to raise interest rates already at the March meeting.

The American Central Bank also announced that it plans to continue reducing the volume of the asset buyback program and intends to curtail it in March.

Meanwhile, traders followed the ongoing reporting season of US companies.

Boeing Co. shares lost 4.8% in price on the news that the company's revenue fell by 3.3% and turned out to be worse than the market forecast, which was waiting for its growth.

Exchange operator Nasdaq Inc. in October-December increased profit by 16%, revenue - by 12%, and the latter figure and adjusted profit were higher than experts' expectations. Nasdaq shares fell 3.1%.

Telecommunications and media company AT&T Inc. returned to profitability last quarter, with adjusted earnings and revenue above forecasts. Capitalization of AT&T, however, decreased by 8.4%.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. share price fell by 3%, although the producer of copper and gold in the last quarter of 2021 increased its net profit by 57%, revenue by 37%.

Automatic Data Processing lost 9% despite the HR software and services provider posting better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the second quarter of fiscal 2022.

Consumer goods manufacturer Kimberly-Clark Corp. in October-December of the year reduced net profit by a third, despite the growth in revenue, due to increased costs. The value of the company fell by 3.4%.

Meanwhile, US new home sales jumped 11.9% in December from the previous month to 811,000 annualized, the country's Commerce Department said. According to the revised data, 725,000 houses were sold in November (an increase of 11.7% MoM), while previously the figure was 744,000 (a jump of 12.4%).

Analysts, on average, expected a 1.8% increase in new home sales last month from the previously announced November level to 757,000.

Stock quotes of large American construction companies Lennar Corp. and KB Home were down 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively.

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IFX Gertrude
01-28-2022, 08:15 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.02%

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At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.02% to a one-month low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.54%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 1.40%. Dow Inc was the top performer among the components of the

Dow Jones index today, up 2.96 points or 5.17% to close at 60.18. Chevron Corp rose 2.68 points or 2.02% to close at 135.37. Merck & Company Inc rose 1.44 points or 1.82% to close at 80.58.

The losers were shares of Intel Corporation, which lost 3.64 points or 7.04% to end the session at 48.05. Boeing Co was up 2.33% or 4.52 points to close at 189.75 while American Express Company was down 1.95% or 3.42 points to close at 171. 90.

Among the S&P 500 index components gainers today were ServiceNow Inc, which rose 9.14% to hit 528.69, Ball Corporation, which gained 8.57% to close at 93.99, and Seagate Technology PLC, which gained 7.65% to end the session at 103.68.

The biggest losers were Teradyne Inc, which shed 22.41% to close at 111.24. Shares of Tesla Inc lost 11.55% and ended the session at 829.10. Quotes of Advanced Micro Devices Inc decreased in price by 7.33% to 102.60.

The leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were National Security Group Inc, which rose 69.65% to 15.65, Sidus Space Inc, which gained 31.55% to close at 10.80. as well as shares of Galapagos NV ADR, which rose 22.47% to close the session at 65.30.

The biggest losers were Epizyme Inc, which shed 44.21% to close at 1.060. Shares of TG Therapeutics Inc shed 40.65% to end the session at 8.25. Quotes of Cyngn Inc decreased in price by 36.47% to 1.62.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2349) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (941), while quotes of 143 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,122 companies fell in price, 838 rose, and 174 remained at the level of the previous close.

Chevron Corp shares rose to an all-time high, up 2.02%, 2.68 points, to close at 135.37. Shares in National Security Group Inc surged to a 52-week high, up 69.65% or 6.43 points to close at 15.65. Epizyme Inc shares fell to all-time lows, down 44.21% or 0.840 to close at 1.060. TG Therapeutics Inc shares fell to a 52-week low, falling 40.65%, 5.65 points, to close at 8.25. Cyngn Inc shares tumbled to all-time lows, dropping 36.47% or 0.93 points to close at 1.62.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 4.60% to 30.49.

Gold futures for February delivery lost 1.81%, or 33.15, to $1,796.55 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery fell 0.08%, or 0.07, to $87.28 a barrel. Brent oil futures for April delivery rose 0.24%, or 0.21, to $88.90 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD fell 0.02% to hit 1.1141, while USD/JPY shed 0.01% to hit 115.32.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.87% to 97.235.

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IFX Gertrude
02-01-2022, 05:28 AM
US stock market closes higher, Dow Jones gains 1.17%

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At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones was up 1.17%, the S&P 500 was up 1.89% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 3.41%.

The leading gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today was Boeing Co, which gained 9.67 points or 5.07% to close at 200.24. Salesforce.com Inc rose 10.50 points or 4.73% to close at 232.63. The Walt Disney Company rose 4.34 points or 3.13% to close at 142.97.

The biggest losers were Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc, which shed 0.70 points or 1.39% to end the session at 49.76. Amgen Inc was up 0.87% or 2.00 points to close at 227.14, while Visa Inc Class A was down 0.80% or 1.83 points to close at 226. ,17.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Enphase Energy Inc, which rose 13.41% to 140.47, SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which gained 12.33% to close at 238.22, and also shares of Netflix Inc, which rose 11.13% to end the session at 427.14.

L3Harris Technologies Inc led the decline, shedding 4.29% to close at 209.29. Shares of Kellogg Company shed 3.46% to end the session at 63.00. Quotes of Citrix Systems Inc decreased in price by 3.42% to 101.94.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Calithera Biosciences Inc, which rose 55.65% to hit 0.650, Inspira Technologies Oxy BHN Ltd, which gained 36.52% to close at 3.14, and also shares of Vaccinex Inc, which rose 33.63% to close the session at 1.510.

The drop leaders were shares of Imperial Petroleum Inc, which lost 55.05% to close at 0.98. Shares of Appharvest Inc lost 12.06% to end the session at 2.99. Quotes of Vigil Neuroscience Inc decreased in price by 11.95% to 12.90.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2,680) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (574), while quotes of 106 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3323 companies rose in price, 582 fell, and 154 remained at the level of the previous close.

Imperial Petroleum Inc shares tumbled to historic lows, down 55.05% or 1.20 points to close at 0.98. Shares in Appharvest Inc plunged to all-time lows, shedding 12.06% or 0.41 points to close at 2.99.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 10.23% to 24.83.

Gold Futures for February delivery added 0.76%, or 13.60, to $1,798.50 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery rose 1.49%, or 1.29, to $88.11 a barrel. Brent oil futures for April delivery rose 0.07%, or 0.06, to $89.28 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, EUR/USD was down 0.00% to hit 1.1233, while USD/JPY was up 0.03% to hit 115.14.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.65% to 96.632.

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IFX Gertrude
02-02-2022, 11:11 AM
US dollar is torn between recession and attempts to rise

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This week has not been set for the US currency. It fell due to the probability of disappointing macro statistics and the short-term strengthening of the euro. However, it does not give up, trying to leave the price hole.

On Tuesday, the US dollar collapsed from a 19-week high. It is declining for the second session in a row, unsuccessfully trying to stay above. There are several reasons for the decline the expectation of the Fed's rate hike, increased cash flows at the end of January, due to which investors have to sell dollars and an increase in risk appetite. At the end of last month, the risk appetite in the markets increased significantly. The catalyst for this was the rebalancing of investors' portfolios and their move into protective assets.

American macro statistics provided temporary support for the US dollar. Last month, the index of business activity in the industry of the country declined to 57.6% from the previous 58.7% and analysts' expected fall of 57.5%. Currently, markets are waiting for signals from the European regulator, as the US has already did an action, marking the course for tougher monetary policy.

According to experts, the US dollar's decline was facilitated by market fears about a possible reduction in the gap between the ECB and the Fed. Some analysts suggest that the European regulator will raise rates before the American one. At the same time, the markets are not confident that the Fed will raise rates five times this year. It can be recalled that the US regulator has repeatedly had to change its plans. Nevertheless, the market is still counting on a five-fold increase in the Fed's rates, the first of which is expected in March. As for the ECB, it is still adhering to the ultra-soft monetary policy, refusing to raise rates this year.

The current situation helped the EUR/USD pair to rise, while the US currency remained under pressure. The strengthening of the euro became a powerful driver of trading, which was facilitated by Inspiring reports on consumer prices in Germany. Experts admit a reversal in the direction of 1.1300-1.1350. According to currency strategists, the next target of the EUR/USD pair will be the level of 1.1300. The formation of the bullish pattern "Morning Star", fixed on the chart on Tuesday, contributed to this. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was hovering around 1.1274, approaching the specified level.

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Currency strategists cite the flattening of the yield curve as among the reasons for the US dollar's current weakness. A flat curve is a sign of an impending recession, while an inverted curve indicates a recession in the economy. Economists estimate that the US yield curve is gradually flattening, while the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds is narrowing (to a minimum since October 2020). This worries experts who see an analogy with December 2018, when the Fed completed its cycle of raising rates, increasing the rate to 2.5%. At this time, the regulator began to reduce the balance sheet, and it now aims to take similar actions. However, the result may not meet market expectations.

According to analysts, the flattening yield curve indicates that the debt market is counting on a solution to supply chain problems. If the issue is resolved, the Fed will not need an aggressive series of rate hikes. However, the market is worried that the rate hike will not allow the Fed to contain price pressure. It is possible that the "hawkish" position of the US regulator, faced with a similar position to the European one, will strike a spark in their relationship. This week's positivity will be the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar, which market participants expect.

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IFX Gertrude
02-03-2022, 07:03 AM
Eurozone inflation hits record fueling bets ECB could raise interest rates

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The euro may continue its rally. On Wednesday, the currency broke through 1.1300. Despite the dovish ECB, macroeconomic data indicate a possible shift towards a more aggressive stance. Record inflation may force the European regulator and Christine Lagarde to consider tightening. Consumer prices in the eurozone continue to increase rapidly, in line with analysts' expectations.

The annual inflation rate in the eurozone edged higher to a fresh record high of 5.1% in January from 5% in December. The market had not expected such an outcome. Neither of Bloomberg's respondents had anticipated another inflation rike. On the contrary, investors had projected a 4.4% slowdown in the rate.

The data came out before the ECB's Governing Council meeting. Therefore, a disagreement may arise over the pace of QE tapering among the council members. There has been speculation that another unexpected inflation hike will be a kind of test for the European regulator.

The euro's reaction to the inflation report was brief. The currency is unlikely to rise solely on these data. However, if the ECB adopts a hawkish stance, the euro will show steady growth.

Market participants expect the regulator to announce the first rate hike by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the ECB fiercely denies such a possibility. Let's see what the regulator says on Thursday.

Anyway, activity in markets increased after the release of the inflation report and the euro's reaction to it. Analysts started to revise their forecasts for EUR/USD. Scotiabank assumes the quote will head towards 1.1400 and break above the mark.

The euro has potential for growth despite the current corrective move. If buyers show willingness to extend the uptrend, the target levels will stand at 1.1369 (the high of January 20) and 1.1430 where the 100-day EMA and the 4-month resistance line intersect.

Meanwhile, the long-term forecast is likely to remain bearish as long as the price trades below the key 200-day SMA.

Read More: Forex Analysis & Reviews: 03.02.2022 - Eurozone inflation hits... (https://www.instaforex.eu/forex_analysis/301657)

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IFX Gertrude
02-04-2022, 07:42 AM
Pound aims to reach new highs

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The pound gathered strength for the next breakthrough, which occurred after the results of the Bank of England's meeting on the rate was announced. Its nearest goals are to consolidate in the reached positions and conquer the next highs.

On Thursday, the Bank of England discussed the current monetary policy. The key issue was to raise the interest rate. The markets expect five rate hikes from the regulator this year, the cumulative increase of which will be 125 bps. Following the announcement of the results of the meeting, the pound noticeably declined against the US dollar. On Thursday evening, it was trading at the level of 1.3577 and then made a short-term breakthrough to 1.3628. However, it lacked the strength to hold on to the gained positions. On Friday morning, the GBP/USD pair was near the round level of 1.3600, trying not to further fall.

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Experts consider the Bank of England one of the most "hawkish" among the world's regulators. The actions of the monetary authority confirm this definition. It can be recalled that the British regulator is expected to increase the interest rate from 0.25% per annum to 0.5% while maintaining the volume of asset repurchases for 895 billion pounds. Along with this, the Bank of England revised the forecast of the country's economic growth downward to 3.75% from the previous 5% calculated in November 2021. The Central Bank of England considers a reduction in aggregate demand as the reason for the slow growth rates of the national economy. At the same time, the regulator raised the forecast for UK inflation for this year to 5.75% from the previous 3.5%.

The current situation had a vague effect on the pound's dynamics. On the one hand, the rate increase gave impulse to it, helping it to increase, but on the other hand, it keeps it in a state of uncertainty. This condition prevents the pound from reversing and it has to be content with short-term growth.

In relation to the Euro currency, the British currency also showed growth. Analysts noted that it surged to a 2-year high against the euro amid the interest rate hike by the Bank of England. The regulator expectedly raised the key rate to 0.5%, and this is not the limit. According to Jane Foley, Head of Foreign Exchange at Rabobank, the Bank of England will raise rates again in May 2022.

"Against the backdrop of falling household incomes due to rising energy and food prices, market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England are exaggerated. However, another rate hike is expected in May," J. Foley believes.

The British regulator has increased the interest rate to curb rampant price pressure. According to the estimates of the Central Bank of England, the inflation rate in the country will soon exceed 7%. The off-the-scale indicators not only concern inflation. According to BoE's representatives, consumer price growth in April 2022 will reach its peak values over the past 30 years and will amount to 7.25%. Based on the preliminary forecasts, the UK inflation will remain above 5% in a year. However, the ministry believes that inflation will be below 2% in three years and will amount to 1.6%. At the same time, the British regulator believes that investors have put too many rate increases in prices this year.

Because of this, the pound remains at risk but does not give up. It is slightly imbalanced against the US dollar due to a decline in global risk appetite and a drop in the stock market, but it strives to overcome price barriers, despite inflationary pressure and several negative economic factors.

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IFX Gertrude
02-07-2022, 08:55 AM
Euro and US dollar's main concern is to reach new highs

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The price highs that the euro reached last Friday are not the limit for it. It aims to break through new barriers. At the same time, the US dollar is set up in a similar way, which is waiting for the Fed's help.

The Euro currency started the new week with the high reached over the past three weeks, but there is one problem a small correction. Last Friday, the single currency approached a three-week high and is trying to hold on to its gained positions. The reason for the surge was a hawkish reversal in ECB policy. However, experts believe that the euro's further growth is unlikely amid the impending tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. In such a situation, the US dollar will take the lead. Analysts are sure that the US currency will need the Fed's tightening of monetary policy to further rise.

Experts believe that the EUR/USD pair is in for serious changes. The first step along this path was the change in ECB's monetary policy. Earlier, the European regulator confidently defended its position, planning to maintain the current interest rate until the end of 2022. However, the situation has changed dramatically now as the ECB revised its strategy during its last meeting. According to analysts, the regulator will update the previous inflation forecast and abandon the current dovish position at the March meeting. Experts allow similar actions by the ECB following the results of the June meeting.

The current situation contributed to the euro's sharp growth across the entire market. The US dollar followed suit, although its results were more modest. Against the backdrop of impressive US macroeconomic data, the market's expectations regarding the tightening of the monetary policy have intensified. Analysts said that the Fed can immediately raise the rate by 50 basis points (bp) next month. In such a situation, the US currency will get a head start and can bypass the euro.

The general upswing that swept the markets contributed to the growth of the EUR/USD pair. At the end of last week, the pair was steadily gaining momentum. Its vector is still directed up, despite the short-term decline. On Monday morning, the EUR/USD pair was around the level of 1.1432. Some instability was caused by the euro's downward correction, recorded after a 2% increase against the US dollar.

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The US currency is gaining momentum amid a noticeable strengthening of the US labor market and the upcoming Fed rate hike. The sharp rise in the euro did not prevent the dollar from strengthening its position and adding 0.4%. According to experts, the US dollar's growth will continue soon.

According to the US Department of Labor report, the US labor market has risen. The increase in jobs in the country last year amounted to 467 thousand against the projected 150 thousand. The data for December 2021 was also revised upwards. As a result, the increase in the number of employees amounted to 510 thousand against the previously forecasted 211 thousand.

The publication of impressive data contributed to the growth of market expectations regarding the Fed rate hike by 50 bps at once in March. In such a situation, the US dollar will sharply increase, although experts fear a negative impact on it from the debt market. It can be recalled that the EUR/USD pair collapsed to 1.1411 after the release of reports on the US labor market, and then returned to 1.1450. According to preliminary estimates, the pair will stabilize "sideways" from the range of 1.1400 - 1.1600 in the upcoming weeks.

The market's paradoxical reaction to the impressive US data confused experts. Experts explain this by the difficult situation that has developed in the American debt market. The increased expectation of tightening the monetary policy brought down the price of state bonds.
The untwisted spring of these expectations hit the yield of 10-year bonds. As a result, their cost soared to 1.93%, updating the high since December 2019. At the same time, analysts are sure that the US Treasury will not allow the collapse of the USD and the debt market. The agency needs to place an additional $350 billion to maintain the balance in the system and stabilize the US dollar.

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IFX Gertrude
02-08-2022, 08:35 AM
EUR/USD pair's new target is the level of 1.1500

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The American and European currencies are trying to reverse the previous trend in the EUR/USD pair, which mainly showed a downward trend. The new target of this classic pair was the level of 1.1500, which can be achieved with massive strength.

For several days, the EUR/USD pair has been trying to break through the upper border, but the level of 1.1500 was mesmerizing. When the situation develops favorably and there is the confidence that the desired level is about to be reached, luck slips away. The pair returns to the starting point, disappointing the markets.

The situation is repeating itself. The EUR/USD pair is marking time, although there are plenty of chances to increase. Among them, experts include the "hawkish" actions of the ECB and the Fed. The pair's growth is hampered by the euro's confusion, which cannot decide on the direction.

The multi-directional dynamics of the euro are confusing the market. It showed a steady rise on Monday, which was replaced by a gradual decline. The upward trend of the single currency slowed down amid expectations of US inflation data. According to analysts, positive macro-statistical reports will provoke an increase in the US dollar's price. Currently, the bulls are defending the level of 1.1400, not letting the bears to the level of 1.1500. On this wave, the pair retains temporary growth potential. On Tuesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1423, which is a noticeable decline from the previous day.

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There are not too many new reasons for the EUR/USD pair to grow soon. It may remain in the current range, waiting for a favorable moment. On a positive background, the pair can surge to the level of 1.1580, and then adjust again to 1.1400. If such a scenario is implemented, the EUR/USD pair will stabilize in the range of 1.1400 - 1.1600 by the end of February.

Positive reports on annual US inflation will be one of the catalysts for the growth of the US currency and, as a result, the classic pair. According to preliminary estimates, inflation accelerated to 7.3% in January compared to 7% in December. This is the highest level recorded since February 1982.

Information on US inflation is mainly important for the dynamics of the US currency since the Fed's further strategy depends on them. Summing up the results of the January meeting, the regulator drew attention to suitable conditions for an early increase in rates. This is due to the rapid growth of inflation and the strengthening of the labor market in the United States. The majority said that the decision to increase the rate will be made next month.

Currently, the euro looks restless, having difficulty choosing a further direction. The specialists believe that its short-term increase was not only due to changes in the ECB's policy but also due to the US dollar being overbought. The overvaluation of the USD played into the hands of the EUR. According to analysts' calculations, the fair exchange rate of the euro is 1.2200 based on the difference between two-year rates in the US and Germany. The revaluation in favor of the US dollar occurred amid a sharp increase in 2-year US government bonds.

Assessing the prospects of the European currency, experts believe that it will not stop when it reaches the level of 1.2200. Experts pay attention to the "overlap" effect recorded in its dynamics, due to which it can surge over 10 figures. The implementation of such a scenario in 2022 will lead the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.3000.

Markets are focusing on US inflation and the results of the Fed's January meeting. According to Credit Agricole's analysts, another round of inflation or "hawkish" signals from the Fed is needed to resume the dollar rally in the near future and sharp rise in the EUR/USD pair. The current attempts of the dollar to beat the euro are quite successful, but they lead to distortions in the pair or slow down the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair.

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IFX Gertrude
02-09-2022, 05:53 AM
Clash of the Titans: The dollar king goes backstage, shining gold on the main stage. Bull trap or sustainable trend?

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The markets are finding it difficult to decide due to the lack of a strong catalyst, the major currency pairs continue to trade within recent levels. The dollar never managed to regain its status as the king of growth, despite strong data on the labor market, the expected record inflation, the hawkish position of the Federal Reserve and the growth in the yield of treasuries. It would seem, well, what else is needed to return to the upward dynamics?

At the end of last week, the dollar index lost 1.8% of its value, now it continues to trade around the 95.60 mark.

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Nevertheless, economists and traders do not lose hope for the growth of the dollar, believing that it will still manifest itself. The current decline is just a correction that will be short-lived, market players comment on the situation.

At least the US currency has fundamental reasons for growth. Judging by the rhetoric, the Fed plans to overtake other major world central banks in tightening monetary policy. Moreover, the divergence of the curves reflecting the dynamics of monetary policies will begin to increase over time. This is one of the biggest factors in favor of further strengthening of the dollar, but with a caveat. As a result of these actions, the Fed needs to quickly cope with rising inflation.

There is another scenario. First, the Fed may eventually lag behind in the process of curbing accelerating inflation. Secondly, the central bank may set itself the task of not harming the recovery process of the US economy. The balance between economic growth and the cycle of monetary policy tightening will be disrupted, and the dollar will be under pressure again.

The USD/JPY pair feels quite comfortable now, climbing and staying above the 115.00 mark. The prospects for further short-term increases are supported by the fundamental background. Investors are considering the possibility of a 50bp rate hike in March. The pair's growth was also supported by the fact that there was demand for the dollar and a rally in the yield of treasuries.

Meanwhile, traders are reluctant to make trading decisions ahead of the publication of US inflation data on Thursday, and this affects the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair as well. So far, this is the only factor that can really limit the growth potential of the quote.

Analysts of Societe Generale demonstrate a confident bullish attitude towards USD/JPY, expecting a sharp increase in the quote in the coming weeks. The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is about to exceed 2%, which means that the pair will quickly approach the 116.00 mark. Then the path to 120.00 will be opened. However, such volatility is likely to be temporary.

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If not the dollar, then what? In which direction is it most profitable for the investor to direct their gaze? Experts advise to take a closer look at gold. Although the precious metal does not bring investment income, it is a popular protective asset, especially in conditions of record inflation.

Yes, gold is sensitive to the tightening of monetary policy, this puts pressure on prices. Much will depend on whether the inflation situation worsens and whether interest rates will rise faster. Here we also need to take into account the technical component. Judging by the charts, gold is not going to fall. At the moment, long positions on the XAU/USD pair look preferable. At the same time, the approach of the Fed's March meeting, at which a rate hike is expected, will increase fluctuations in gold and the dollar.

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The crucial area is $1,810 per ounce. Its penetration will send the price to $1825, and then to the area of $1830-$1832. A decisive breakdown of this barrier will be seen as a new trigger for bulls. The XAU/USD pair may accelerate growth towards the January peak of $1853.

A convincing breakdown below the $1810 mark will make gold vulnerable to further sales below $1800 dollars, testing support at $ 1790.

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IFX Gertrude
02-10-2022, 09:32 AM
EUR/USD: USD bears will take the lead if the US dollar fails to rise

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Many analysts believe that the expected US macro statistics will only slightly change the dynamics of the US dollar. There is growing confidence in the markets that the price of US currency will decline. In such a situation, USD "bears" will benefit.

This week, the US dollar resisted pressure from risk appetite and expectations of the upcoming Fed rate hike. On Wednesday evening, it entered a downward spiral. Its decline against the euro took place amid a reduction in the yield of US government bonds. At present, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 1.94% (from the previous 1.95%), while remaining at a high level for the last two years.

Currency markets are waiting for new reports on US annual inflation. According to preliminary forecasts, the inflationary spiral in January 2022 unwound to its maximum values (7.3%). It is worth noting that this has not been recorded since February 1982. Experts believe that the confirmation of these data will force the Fed to reconsider the current monetary policy. It is possible that the regulator will speed up the process of raising the key rate.

The current situation turned out to be in the hands of the dollar bears. According to experts, they may take the lead as the markets are not sure about the strengthening of the US dollar. Moreover, strengthening risk sentiment and instability in the Treasury bond market amid falling energy prices hinder the growth of the US dollar. Such a decline is facilitated by "marking time" on the Fed's part, as the market won back the upcoming rate hike. Further action by the Fed will determine US consumer price reports.

The current situation contributes to the slowdown in the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair. The pair is trading in the same range, stagnating while expecting the US macro statistics. On Thursday morning, the EUR/USD pair was near the level of 1.1425.

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Analysts said that the EUR/USD pair has hardly moved since the beginning of this week, remaining in a narrow range. At the same time, it corrected below the level of 1.1400, reaching 1.1397, and then returned to 1.1420-1.1425. This was facilitated by the US dollar's weakening, which experts believe will last for some time.

In addition to the Fed's intervention, the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair are influenced by the comments of the European regulator. ECB's "hawkish" statements may send the pair to the range of 1.1460-1.1480.

Many analysts expect the US dollar to further plunge against the euro and other world currencies this year. Specialists believe that the USD is overbought, so its price turned out to be "inflated" at the end of 2021. However, some market participants do not agree with this position and are waiting for the US dollar to grow amid the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, but a fourfold rate hike is unlikely to strengthen the US currency. The regulator will not increase the number of rate hikes (up to seven times, as previously reported) in 2022, as this will lead to a collapse in the US stock market.

The majority of analysts are betting on the euro's appreciation this year. However, there are pitfalls here. Economists predict the euro to decline by the end of 2022, although it is currently strengthening against the US dollar. An interest rate increase by the ECB does not cancel out the negative scenario for the euro, the further growth of which remains in question. The difference in approaches to the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed also adds pressure. Experts concluded that the current situation is in favor of the US dollar.

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IFX Gertrude
02-11-2022, 08:56 AM
USD soars following inflation data

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Many analysts note the strange behavior of the US dollar. After a sharp rise, it has slid into a short-term decline. Yet, the greenback will have to pick up a trajectory soon. '

There are two possible scenarios. It may resume a steady rise and enter a narrow range. At the same time, flat trading is unlikely to undermine the Us dollar's bullish bias. A short-term downward movement will also hardly last long. Currently, the greenback is trading without a clear-cut trend. Before that, it incurred significant losses. Economists assumed that the US currency would climb higher after the publication of US macro statistics.

The US dollar performed a dizzying rise after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and NFP reports. Annual inflation accelerated to 7.5% from the previous figure of 7%, notching the highest reading in four decades. As for the weekly number of initial jobless claims, the reading decreased by 16,000, amounting to 223,000. Analysts had expected the indicator to drop to 230,000.

So, it is not surprising that the US dollar has soared. However, it ran out of steam quite fast. As a result, it retreated. Some forex strategists believe that the greenback may resume a downward movement. Following the publication of the report, the euro was supposed to assert strength against the US currency, rising to 1.1100. However, it did not happen. Before the release of inflation data, the EUR/USD pair sank by 0.2% to 1.1406. Shortly after, it managed to stabilize. On Friday morning, February 11, the EUR/USD pair was trading in the range of 1.1386-1.1387. It rolled back from the target levels after the publication of inflation data.

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Analysts reckon that the euro failed to rally due to the aggressive behavior of large market players who increased their long positions on USD futures. Last week, the volume of long positions de3clined slightly. The price was hovering near two-year highs. The greenback is unable to advance now although it has made attempts to rise.

The US inflation report boosted the growth of the US dollar. At the same time, it triggered a drop in futures on the main stock indices. The Fed is sure to take notice of a new increase in inflation figures when making a monetary policy decision. US Treasury yields increased significantly. The Germany 2 Years / United States 2 Years Government Bond spread grew to 1.87%. This indicator tracks the short-term trend of the EUR/USD pair.

Apparently, it is getting really difficult for the central bank to curb soaring inflation. It was expected to slow down. However, those predictions turned out to be incorrect. So, the Fed is likely to resort to additional tools to cap inflation. The regulator plans to hike the key rate in March. According to Bank of America (BofA) analysts, the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rate 7 times this year thanks to steady wage growth. BofA also expects 4 rate hikes by 0.25% in 2023.

The revised inflation report could also facilitate the US's dollar rally. It is likely to gain momentum provided that inflation figures are high. It may also enable the Fed to raise the key rate immediately by 50 percentage points (pp). The current situation requires the regulator to take decisive action on monetary policy.

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IFX Gertrude
02-14-2022, 08:03 AM
If there is war tomorrow? Fear of an attack on Ukraine drove up the price of gold

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Every day the Russian-Ukrainian conflict flares up with greater force.

On Friday, the White House statement added fuel to the fire that Moscow could attack Ukraine any day On the evening of February 11, American officials recommended that US citizens urgently leave the territory of Ukraine. According to the West, there is now a high probability of Russia's invasion of the Black Sea Republic at any moment.

The alarming comment immediately raised the quotes of protective assets, including gold. Late on Friday evening, precious metal prices soared sharply, ramming through the key resistance at $1,850.

Bullion also met the new working week with steady growth. At the time of preparation of the material, gold futures were trading at $1,859. They rose 0.9% compared to Friday's close, when they rose 0.26%.

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In general, over the past week, the value of the precious metal has risen by 1.9%. Expectations of January inflation data in the United States contributed to the positive dynamics.

As for the beginning of the current seven-day period, the main price-forming factor in the gold market remains geopolitical risks.

On Sunday, the United States said that Russia could create an unexpected pretext for invading Ukraine. In turn, the Kremlin denied this possibility and accused the American side of hysteria.

Nevertheless, another escalation of the conflict led to strong volatility on the Asian stock market on Monday morning. The drop in demand for risky assets caused an increase in appetite for gold.

At the beginning of the day, the yellow asset approached the highest value for three months. Analyst Philip Nova believes that its further dynamics depends on two upcoming meetings.

Today, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will discuss the situation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, and his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled for tomorrow.

If, following the results of the meetings, the German politician does not signal a reduction in tension, this will serve as another impetus for the growth of prices for precious metals. According to the expert, in the near future, the quotes may jump to $1,900.

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IFX Gertrude
02-15-2022, 09:17 AM
Protected Gold protects. Investors are greedily buying gold in search of protection from geopolitical risks

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Gold rose sharply in price on Monday. This was facilitated by increased geopolitical tensions. The whole world is watching how the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved.

Last week, some Western media reported insider information that Moscow could launch an attack on February 16.

In response, yesterday the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky declared this date a day of unity. He called on Ukrainians to hang the country's flags on buildings on Wednesday and sing the national anthem together.

Many interpreted his statement as a bold hint. It seems that the head of Ukraine has been officially informed that February 16 will be the day of the invasion.

Also on Monday, a comment by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson added fuel to the fire. He called the situation in Ukraine "very, very dangerous."

All these factors led to panic and a major sell-off on the world stock markets. Yesterday, the shares of many companies fell sharply.

Now investors are moving away from risky instruments to protective assets. One of the best shelters is considered to be gold.

At the beginning of the new working week, bullion showed impressive dynamics. During the day, they rose by 1.5% (for comparison: over the past seven days, the quotes rose by 1.9%).

In monetary terms, the difference from the previous close was more than $27. Gold finished trading on Monday at the highest mark in three months at $1,869.40, and $1,872.80 became the daily high.

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Analyst David Russell believes that a close above $1,870 will stimulate gold bulls to reach a new goal faster. The next psychologically important mark for a yellow asset is $1,900.

The expert warns that in the near future, the movement of quotes will strongly depend on the news background. Even a slight heating up of the conflict and the growing uncertainty around the situation in Ukraine will contribute to an increase in prices for the precious metal.

At the same time, any sign of a thaw in relations between Russia and the West could trigger a fall in the yellow asset.

Yesterday, by the way, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on world leaders to step up diplomacy in order to calm the situation as soon as possible. He said he was deeply concerned about the "growing speculation" regarding the military conflict.

Another negative factor for gold now is the hawkish rate of the US Federal Reserve. On Monday, the central bank held an unscheduled meeting at which officials continued to argue about how aggressively to approach an interest rate hike in March.

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, who is entitled to vote at FOMC meetings this year, advocates speeding up the process. He intends to convince his colleagues to raise rates by 100 bps by the beginning of July.

Meanwhile, Commerzbank analysts consider this unrealistic. In their opinion, further escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will keep the Fed from raising interest rates by 50 bps in March, as this may cause excessive turmoil in financial markets.

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IFX Gertrude
02-16-2022, 08:55 AM
Wall Street trades draw US SEC attention

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is conducting an investigation into Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs launched by the US Department of Justice. The main issue is whether financial executives might have warned hedge funds about large stock sales ("block trades"), which violates the regulations.

The participants of the investigation give no comments.

Broker-dealers tend to act on behalf of clients or using a hedging strategy (a method of insuring assets against negative market trends). They buy and sell large blocks of shares, and this can affect the company's stock prices. This process is especially active during periods of volatility, when portfolios are being rebalanced.

If such valuable information is obtained in advance, it may have a great impact on the market. Companies should adjust processes preventing the misuse of nonpublic information. Otherwise, it could violate U.S. laws.

As the WSJ reports, the SEC has sent subpoenas to some hedge funds and banks requesting information about investors' interaction with bankers. It is also mentioned that investigations into block trades irregularities began in 2019.

It is being investigated if bankers revealed non-public information to some privileged clients. If such incidents become known, they will find out how this information may have affected some funds that are " liquidity providers" for Wall Street companies.

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IFX Gertrude
02-17-2022, 08:49 AM
Three main factors for USD growth: geopolitics, risk appetite, and macro statistics

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The US dollar's steady growth, observed from time to time, is due to the interaction of three main factors a decrease in risk appetite, inspiring US macro statistics, and the easing of geopolitical conflict. At the moment, the key "pillar" supporting the US dollar is American statistics.

Today, the US currency found it difficult to choose a direction, as markets assessed several factors affecting it. Its growth was facilitated by positive macroeconomic statistics from the US, which turned out to be better than forecasts. In particular, US retail sales soared 3.8% m/m in January 2022 against an expected rise of 2.1%. At the same time, the volume of industrial production in the country increased by 1.4%, while a growth rate of 0.4% was forecasted. Both indicators indicate favorable conditions for further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

The decline in risk appetite is also another factor stimulating the growth of the US dollar. In such a situation, investors go to protective assets, primarily gold and the US dollar. However, risk appetite has returned amid certainty over the Fed's new minutes, which is less hawkish than expected. This situation provoked the USD's temporary decline. At the same time, retail sales and the strengthening of the US labor market can improve global risk appetite.

Moreover, some weakening of the US dollar was facilitated by geopolitical tensions, namely, the alleged ceased of the military conflict around Ukraine. This provoked significant price dynamics for key trading instruments. As a result, the US currency turned to the downside. It was followed by gold and oil.

On Thursday morning, the EUR/USD pair was near the level of 1.1354. It is worth noting that the euro rose to the level of 1.1363 against the US dollar yesterday and managed to consolidate at this level a little later.

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The growing inflation continues to put pressure on the US dollar. The current situation requires the Fed to take decisive action to raise rates as soon as possible. The regulator cannot afford dovish rhetoric, otherwise, it will provoke serious economic shifts. ECB also made "hawkish" statements, which allows the key rate to be raised by the end of the year.

The US dollar is supported by the growth of retail sales in the country. The strong indicator neutralizes concerns about a possible recession in the American economy. Earlier, investors were worried that the upcoming Fed rate hike would negatively affect the US economy. It should be noted that the high probability of a recession poses a threat to further USD growth. However, experts believe that there are now no reasons to implement an unfavorable scenario.

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IFX Gertrude
02-18-2022, 08:27 AM
Is the pound's growth temporary?

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Many analysts are asking questions: how long will the pound's growth last? Or will it decline soon? Specialists are worried about sharp changes in the dynamics of the British currency, which can undermine its position.

The pound was growing steadily this week, impressing the markets. It is rising due to impressive UK macro statistics and expectations of positive changes in the interest rate. Experts assume that the Bank of England will raise the key rate following its leading counterparts, such as the Fed and the ECB.

A strong impulse for the pound's growth was the sudden acceleration of annual inflation in the UK. According to the reports of the Bureau for National Statistics, British inflation reached 5.5% last month, from the previous 5.4%. In the first month of 2022, consumer prices in the country fell by 0.1% after rising by 0.5% in December. Economists said that UK's inflation reached a 30-year high, slightly behind another world record US inflation, which spiraled to a 40-year increase.

A significant increase in UK consumer prices contributed to the strengthening of the national currency. Against this background, expectations of an early rate hike by the Bank of England have increased. The overall positive mood contributed to the rise of the pound, although experts fear that the upward trend will end soon.

The current situation helped the GBP/USD pair to rise. The pound took the opportunity and tried to consolidate its gained positions. According to UOB currency strategists, the pair needs to break through the resistance of 1.3645 for further growth. The probability of the pound rising above the level of 1.3645 is still insignificant, but the chances will increase if the pound does not go beyond the level of 1.3520 in the coming days. The UOB notes that the next resistance level for the GBP/USD pair is set around 1.3680.

Analysts' comments are right the pound is far from the indicated level of 1.3645. On Friday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading at 1.3610, trying to rise higher, but with mixed success. A day earlier, the pound increased by 0.25%, reporting to the level of 1.3616. Analysts say the pair will remain in the wide range of 1.3550-1.3650 in the near term, in which it is located after a significant deviation from the "bearish" trend in December 2021.

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The future economic prospects of the UK are as vague as the weather in the country, especially given the possible fiscal increase. The pound will remain in a fighting mood in the coming weeks, as market participants are confident in the upcoming tightening of the monetary policy by the Bank of England. It can be recalled that the regulator has raised interest rates twice since December 2021 (to 0.5% from the previous 0.1%). Now, the markets expect a further rise in the key rate in March up to 0.75% or immediately up to 1%.

Many analysts consider the pound undervalued by 10% relative to the US dollar. According to experts, this situation developed after the Brexit referendum in 2016 and continues to this day. Experts believe that this undervaluation hinders economic growth in the country. At the same time, the short-term prospects for the pound are quite optimistic and set investors in a positive mood.

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IFX Gertrude
02-21-2022, 08:37 AM
Dollar: a new rival and a "feedback loop"

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Experts positively assess the potential of the US currency. At the same time, the relative lull in the dynamics of USD worries the markets. Growing concerns are reinforced by geopolitical instability and the expectation of an early rise in the Fed's interest rate.

The escalation of the geopolitical situation at the end of last week put significant pressure on the greenback and the EUR/USD pair, which collapsed from a high near 1.1375 to 1.1320, but then recovered. Currently, the pair runs in a wide range of 1.1300-1.1400, which will remain in the near future.

The new week began for the dollar with a slight decline against the euro. The reason is a small respite in the difficult geopolitical situation around Ukraine. On the morning of Monday, February 21, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.1363. The European currency strengthened its position against the US one, taking advantage of the pause in the geopolitical confrontation.

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Many analysts are set to increase the price of the greenback, despite the tense external background. After a month-long reduction in positions for USD growth, investors and traders set a course to increase them. Over the past week, large investment funds have raised long positions on the greenback by 5%. The continuation of this trend contributes to the further growth of the US currency.

However, in the medium and long term prospects for the USD, not everything is as rosy as it seems at first glance. The dollar has a serious rival, experts warn. This is not the euro, but the British currency, which can compete with the US one.

Optimism about the pound is promoted by its slow but steady growth compared to the volatility of the greenback and the euro. Against the background of the upcoming tightening of the PREP by the leading central banks, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the Bank of England found itself in a more advantageous situation. The British central bank took care of the normalization of monetary policy in advance, increasing the interest rate twice: the first time - from 0.125% to 0.25%, and two weeks ago - from 0.25% to 0.5%. According to analysts, this has not happened since 2004.

Experts believe that against the background of galloping inflation in the United Kingdom, the central bank will increase the rate again. To this decision, the Bank of England is pushing another round of inflation (up to 5.5%), which has not been recorded since 1992. As a result, the pound, with the monetary support of the central bank, can compete with the dollar.

Experts consider the upcoming increase in the Fed's interest rate to be another factor of pressure on the greenback. Many analysts are arguing about the tightening of the PREP by the Federal Reserve, weighing the pros and cons for the dollar. At the same time, analysts find it difficult to give an unambiguous assessment of what is happening. They are afraid of the so-called "feedback loop" that keeps inflation at a high level. According to JPMorgan experts, a similar "loop" in the economy is formed between strong growth, price pressure and household actions. The effect of the "feedback loop" generates a colossal financial burden, characteristic of off-scale inflation. Currently, a similar situation is observed.

Against this background, the Fed is able to raise the interest rate nine times, according to JPMorgan. Currency strategists consider this a necessary measure to curb inflation in the US: "This year, the Fed will raise the rate by 25 basis points at each of the nine meetings." It is expected that such steps will support the greenback, which will retain its status as a global protective asset. The power of the US currency allows it to stay afloat and strengthen its position in times of crisis.

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IFX Gertrude
02-22-2022, 07:40 AM
Asia-Pacific stock exchanges fall by 1-3%

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The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognizing the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DNR and LNR). In addition, the president instructed the armed forces of the Russian Federation to carry out peacekeeping functions in the self-proclaimed republics. As eyewitnesses told Interfax, two columns of armored vehicles are on the territory of the DPR and follow to the north and west of the republic.

Western countries called Moscow's actions a violation of international law and announced their intention to impose sanctions, which could be announced as early as Tuesday.

The Japanese Nikkei fell by 1.8% by 8:12 GMT+2.

Shares of consumer electronics manufacturer Sharp Corp. are among the drop leaders among the components of the index. (-7.71%), which continue to fall in price after falling the day before. The company said it plans to buy loss-making display maker Sakai Display Products Corp.

Also, securities of the transport company Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. are falling sharply. (-6.7%) and video game developer NEXON Co. Ltd. (-6.2%).

Securities of the investment company SoftBank Group Corp. cheaper by 0.6%, automaker Toyota Motor Corp. - by 2.3%.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng by 8:18 GMT + 2 fell by 3.3%, the Shanghai Shanghai Composite - by 1.4%.

Among the decliners in Hong Kong are shares of gas pipeline operator ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. (-10.9%), Hang Seng Bank Ltd. (-6.6%) and internet giant Meituan (HK:3690) (-6.3%).

Securities of IT companies Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. drop by 3.7%, Tencent Holdings Ltd. - by 2.1%.

South Korean Kospi fell by 1.7% by 8:14 GMT+2.

The consumer confidence index in South Korea fell 1.3 points to 103.1 points in February, the lowest level since last August. A month earlier, the value of the indicator was 104.4 points.

Capitalization of chipmaker Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. declined by 1.8%, the value of shares of automakers Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd. (KS:005380) and Kia Corp. decreases by 2.2% and 1.9%.

The Australian S&P/ASX 200 fell 1%.

The world's largest mining companies BHP and Rio Tinto lost 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively.

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trfaantihtuh23
02-22-2022, 03:12 PM
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IFX Gertrude
02-23-2022, 08:58 AM
Crypto market update for February 23, 2022

Bitcoin has declined by $7,000 over the past six days. Thus, we have every reason to assume that the formation of the upward wave d is completed. If this assumption is correct, then now the instrument has moved on to building a new downward wave, which is wave e.

No one will deny that the news background sometimes has a strong impact on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Usually, this even applies only to negative news background. When all is quiet and calm and central banks are pumping money into their economies while keeping rates low, bitcoin tends to rise. But now it's a completely different matter. Rates are about to begin to rise, and in some places, they have already begun. Central banks no longer intend to print money, and the Fed is going to start reducing its balance sheet, which has ballooned to $9 trillion. Thus, now is an unfavorable time for bitcoin.

I believe that it is on this news and expectations of tightening monetary policy by the market that bitcoin has been declining for several months now. And over the next month, it may drop to $27,000, where wave e can be considered completed. However, geopolitics also intervened, and since bitcoin is a risky asset, it began a new decline along with the stock markets.

And again, geopolitics

So much has been said about geopolitics in recent weeks that I would not like to elaborate on this point. At the same time, this may continue to further reduce the demand for risky assets, which include all cryptocurrencies. Thus, any further escalation of the conflict in Donbass or Ukraine could lead to a wave of new bitcoin sales. In the coming weeks, the danger will be that the troops of the DNR and LNR may go on the offensive in order to capture all the territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. And Russian troops can help them in this, which immediately entered the Donbass as soon as Putin signed a decree recognizing the independence of the LPR and DPR.

The market is negative

Despite the fact that there are still quite a few investors and analysts in the market who continue to believe in bitcoin and its growth in 2022, the mood has changed dramatically to bearish in recent months. More and more experts say that this year there is no reason to expect a renewal of last year's peak. Moreover, some predict a "crypto winter" that will last until 2025.

American economist and writer Nassim Taleb criticized bitcoin, calling it "entertainment for losers." According to Taleb, bitcoin is not really a hedging tool for either inflation or geopolitical risks. Otherwise, why at this time, when inflation is off scale, and the geopolitical situation is at its highest degree, Bitcoin is declining, Taleb wonders. "Actually bitcoin is the exact opposite," said the bestselling author of The Black Swan. Previously, Taleb has repeatedly criticized bitcoin, while noting the positive aspects of blockchain technology.

The construction of the downward trend section continues. At this time, the current wave counting takes on a five-wave form and can continue its construction with targets located near $29,117 and $26,991, which equates to 0.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci within wave e. A successful attempt to break through the $41,470 mark, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci, indicates the market is ready for further sales. Thus, I expect another downward wave to be built. Considering what a difficult news background is now, this wave can be very long.

In many ways, everything will depend on how long the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine will last and how far everything will go. In the coming weeks, everything will really depend on geopolitics, and on March 15-16, the Fed will raise the rate. It's hard to come up with a worse news background for bitcoin.

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IFX Gertrude
02-24-2022, 09:20 AM
Things getting worse in Ukraine, so European market trading in red

European stock futures dropped this morning after reports that Russian troops fired missiles at a number of Ukrainian cities and landed troops on its coast. This caused a big wave of risk-off in the global market. Worries about increased inflation and the derailing of the economic recovery after the outbreak of the pandemic affected investors and resulted in German DAX index contracts down more than 5 %, EuroSTOXX futures dropped 5 % and FTSE futures down 2.8 %. While the European market is quite reliant on Russian energy products, the current political situation raised worries in other markets as well. Some Asian stocks, in particular, also fell, and U.S. index futures showed losses of around 2% later on Wall Street. Oil prices are up more than 5% and gold soared 2%.

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IFX Gertrude
02-25-2022, 08:57 AM
EUR/USD: euro explores a new reality without going to extremes, and the dollar, the mainstay of investors, gets a head start

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The sparks of the geopolitical conflict simmering around Ukraine have scattered across the global market and burned the euro. At the same time, the US currency got a chance to gain a foothold in the role of a reliable asset of a "safe haven", into which investors once again "dived" into.

Many European currencies, in particular the Swedish krona, the euro, the Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty, could not withstand the geopolitical tension and sank sharply. Investors rushed to safe currencies, primarily the US, as well as the Swiss franc and the yen. In the course of large-scale risk avoidance and the search for protective assets, the greenback gained 0.9%. According to analysts, risk aversion will dominate the market in the near future. This contributes to the further strengthening of the USD, as well as other safe havens the yen and the Swiss franc.

The massive "escape" of investors in the dollar was provoked by the intensity of the geopolitical conflict associated with the Ukrainian military operation. Market participants fear negative economic consequences and a significant tightening of sanctions rhetoric against Russian assets. Against this background, currency strategists predict a "well-coordinated movement in USD", which will continue.

The current situation has tripped up the euro, which has fallen under large-scale sales amid risk aversion. On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair was near 1.1250, but then it sank significantly. In the near future, the pair may feel bearish pressure if geopolitical tensions persist.

The euro tried to recover at the end of this week, but acted with varying success. The single currency hardly holds on to the positions it has won. A sharp geopolitical shift provoked the collapse of the EUR/USD pair from the level of 1.1300 to a new low of 1.1106, recorded in May 2020. Later, the pair slightly balanced its dynamics, rising to 1.1200. On the morning of Friday, February 25, the EUR/USD pair was trading near 1.1221, trying to get out of the downward spiral.

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An additional pressure factor for the euro may be an increase in energy prices. The implementation of such a scenario will send the EUR/USD pair to the critical level of 1.1100, Danske Bank believes. An increase in the cost of energy carriers is possible in the event of a decrease in the geopolitical intensity, and this is unlikely, the bank notes.

Risk aversion, which prevails in financial markets, gives the dollar a head start. As for the European currency, it seeks to adapt to the new reality and avoid prolonged subsidence. These attempts pass with varying success. According to experts, the fair exchange rate of the euro is 1.2000. Reaching this mark in the EUR/USD pair is possible after the current US government bond placement cycle. Analysts do not rule out EUR growth after the ECB meeting scheduled for March 10.

Geopolitical turmoil has dealt a significant blow to risk appetites, but key currencies have proved resilient. In the short-term planning horizon, experts expect the recovery trend to consolidate.

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IFX Gertrude
02-28-2022, 09:24 AM
EUR/USD: the euro is looking for a lifeline, and the dollar is confidently holding the steering wheel

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The US currency started the new week on the positive side, continuing the upward trend. Against the background of the steady growth of the greenback, the euro's positions are significantly shaken. The markets are afraid that the EUR will not only dive to the bottom, but will remain there indefinitely.

Earlier, experts considered an early interest rate hike by the European Central Bank to be a lifeline for the euro. The ECB was strongly advised to follow the path of the US one and raise the rate at almost every meeting. However, the escalation of the military conflict around Ukraine has made its own adjustments. At the moment, European leaders are engaged in the implementation of the next sanctions against Russia. Note that the international assets of the Bank of Russia came under attack.

The current situation has become a powerful driver of greenback growth and weakened the euro's position. On the morning of Monday, February 28, the US currency soared against the European one amid the global flight of investors from risk. The reasons are the complication of the geopolitical situation around Ukraine and the introduction of economic restrictions against Russia. The EUR/USD pair was near 1.1162, having significantly sank from the level of 1.1267 recorded at the close of the last session.

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According to analysts, the greenback's rally in relation to the euro is due not only to the widespread withdrawal of investors from risk, but also to the collapse of US stock futures. On the last day of February, futures on American securities fell along with the euro, while the safe haven currencies, the dollar and the yen, became market favorites in terms of demand.

The "black swan" of geopolitics has made significant adjustments to the expectations of the Federal Reserve and ECB rate hikes by the markets. At the moment, these measures have receded into the background, although the US central bank does not intend to reconsider the tightening of monetary policy due to the Ukrainian conflict. The changes in the monetary policy should help the growth of the greenback, but the simultaneous fall of the US stock market and the stock market will turn the situation 180 degrees. With the tightening of the monetary policy, investors will massively withdraw from long US debt securities, while the US stock market will stay afloat. Such an ambiguous situation can shake the USD positions.

Currently, the US currency is supported by fears of possible negative consequences of anti-Russian sanctions. Many analysts are alarmed by the potential difficulties for the global economy due to the introduction of restrictions. Bullish sentiment on the US currency prevails among the major market players, and large investment funds are increasing their positions on USD growth for the second consecutive week. Over the past week, funds have increased greenback purchases by 3%. The strengthening of this trend contributes to the further growth of the US currency, analysts believe.

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IFX Gertrude
03-01-2022, 06:50 AM
Second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine to be held in coming days. Dollar to stay in demand globally

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Demand for safe-haven assets is set to remain strong in the near future. Gold prices are on the rise. Nevertheless, the US dollar briefly retraced down on Monday, while market players were awaiting the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine talks. The talks are unlikely to resolve the conflict, but the willingness of the parties to negotiate has somewhat eased fears in the market. In the coming days, Russia and Ukraine are expected to hold the second round of talks. Officials from both sides returned to their capitals for further consultations.

"We have identified certain points from which we can predict general positions," Vladimir Medinsky, the delegate from Russia, said. A similar announcement was made by Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukraine's presidential advisor.

Meanwhile, the dollar rally is expected to extend. Global demand for the greenback, as well as other safe-have assets, remains strong due to both geopolitical risks and stressed dollar liquidity conditions.

"As such we will keep a close eye on the cross-currency basis swap market for any kinds of stress as well as seeing whether there is any increased demand for dollar liquidity at e.g. the ECB 7-day USD auction," economists at ING said.

DXY is heading back to the high at 97.70 and could break higher still.

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"Euro losses have been relatively well contained so far," according to ING. Russia, the United States, and the European Union are now waging an information war. They impose sanctions, threaten, and accuse each other.

Although Europe relies heavily on energy, there have already been some reports of it looking at quotas and limits on Russian energy. Clearly, Europe would have to pay a lot higher price for its energy under such a scenario, and growth forecasts would have to be downgraded.

On Monday, the euro/dollar pair retested the low of 1.1120. Barring any surprise breakthrough in Ukraine-Russia talks, EUR/USD might hit 1.1000 this week.

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This week promises to be full of not only political but also macroeconomic events. The eurozone CPI for February is scheduled for Wednesday. In France, the CPI came in higher unexpectedly. But given the events in the east, the ECB is likely to become more hawkish if the eurozone CPI comes in stronger. Bearish bias for EUR/USD continues.

Some analysts anticipate monetary policy tightening in the eurozone. The euro could strengthen on expectations of a rate hike by the ECB, Societe Generale said. The European regulator would raise rates by 25 basis points, experts forecast. The next ECB meeting is scheduled for March 10.

Data on US unemployment could somewhat affect EUR/USD by the close of the week. The figure is estimated to drop to 3.9% versus 4%, while Nonfarm Payrolls are seen to increase by 438K.

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IFX Gertrude
03-02-2022, 08:14 AM
EUR/USD: the dollar saves from risks, and the euro needs an energy "crutch"

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The current uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict around Ukraine has significantly shaken the EUR/USD pair. The weather vane of its dynamics deviated from the sharp drop caused by the collapse of the euro, but it is far from equilibrium.

On Wednesday, the European currency experienced serious pressure amid the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. The rise in oil prices added fuel to the fire, increasing investors' worries about an economic blow to the eurozone. The single currency slipped below the support level, reaching a 21-month low of 1.1090, but then recovered. The euro was in the 1.1130-1.1131 range at the beginning of trade. The EUR/USD pair was cruising near 1.1114 on Wednesday morning, March 2, trying to get out of the price hole.

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According to analysts, the prospects of the European currency are related to the energy security of Europe. A positive solution to the gas issue and the settlement of LNG supplies will help the euro to rise. If the euro fails, a thorny path is provided, analysts believe. According to analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the risk for EUR "lies in a steady movement below 1.1106 if market participants lower the economic prospects of the eurozone."

Geopolitical passions are boiling in the markets, but many are confident that they do not threaten the dynamics of the euro. Market participants fear disruptions in energy supplies, which worsen the economic situation of the eurozone. The current stability of the euro is ensured by the balanced approach of European leaders to the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions. According to experts, Europe will not impose restrictions that will block its access to Russian energy carriers. In addition, the "green" strategy of European leaders has seen a 180-degree turn. Many EU countries refuse to use "green" technologies in favor of LNG, and are also not ready to reduce coal consumption. Against this background, the impact of the Ukrainian conflict on the economic growth of the eurozone is minimal, experts believe.

Economists are seriously concerned about the intensification of the global humanitarian crisis. In conditions of economic uncertainty, the dollar comes on the scene. Experts attach key importance to the US currency when protecting investment portfolios. UBS currency strategists believe that the greenback as a safe haven currency has a number of advantages and high stability in times of crisis. At the same time, the greenback shows a tendency to rally at times of increased geopolitical uncertainty or risk-free sentiment in financial markets. UBS is confident that market expectations about a sevenfold rise in US interest rates will support USD in the coming months. The greenback is currently the most attractive tool for currency transactions.

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IFX Gertrude
03-03-2022, 07:37 AM
Crypto market rallies as other risk assets plunge

The world's most popular and largest cryptocurrency showed steady growth, trading bullish for the second session. The digital asset tested the February high of $45,000 and then tumbled along with US stock indices in the North American session.

Institutional investors and crypto whales have been recently buying out digital gold, seeking alternative instruments amid the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Last week, cryptocurrency funds saw an inflow of assets worth $36 million, up by $239 million, according to CoinShares.

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On Tuesday, BTC soared 5.3% to $43,900. Like the flagship cryptocurrency, popular altcoins were also on the rise with ether jumping 4.6%, Binance Coin and Avalanche adding 8%, and XRP rising 2.1%.

The crypto market capitalization has climbed 3.9% to $2.01 trillion over the past 24 hours, CoinGecko, the world's largest cryptocurrency data aggregator, reported.

Meanwhile, BTC dominance increased 0.5% to 41.4% as popular altcoins showed weaker growth. The bitcoin fear and greed index has swelled 31 points to 51 points over the past 24 hours.

New sanctions against Russia targeting the country's financial institutions are named as the main driving force of virtual assets.

On February 28, bitcoin gained more than 15% as the US Treasury imposed sanctions against Russia's Central Bank and froze its assets in the US. Many European states announced similar sanctions as well.

Crypto experts say isolation of Russia's financial system may cause a decrease in the correlation between cryptocurrencies and other risk assets observed since early 2022. Thus, digital gold has recently been bullish despite a fall in other risk assets.

Despite the tense geopolitical situation, this is a good time for the crypto market. To avoid financial losses, investors from Russia and Ukraine began to actively invest in decentralized currencies, in particular, bitcoin.

A fall in fiat currencies became another positive factor for bitcoin. According to Binance, the cryptocurrency exchange, trading volumes between the Russian ruble and BTC and USDT have significantly increased.

At the same time, US officials are increasingly worried Russia might use virtual assets to evade sanctions. They urged the leading cryptocurrency exchanges to block Russian users from their platforms amid concerns digital currencies are being used to mitigate tightening sanctions.

Binance, KuCoin, Kraken, and AAX responded by saying they did not intend to unilaterally block the funds of Russians. Meanwhile, the Kraken online service said that they would be forced to start the blocking process if the regulator said to. The statements by the world's largest crypto exchanges instilled optimism in the crypto market and contributed to the strengthening of BTC.

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IFX Gertrude
03-04-2022, 08:56 AM
Apocalypse now: The threat of a second Chernobyl has sharply raised the price of gold

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This morning, after a Russian attack, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is the largest in Europe, caught fire. Fear has reached a climax, causing the price of gold to soar again.

On Thursday, Russian troops captured Kherson, located in southern Ukraine, and continued to advance towards Zaporizhzhia. Early on Friday morning, disturbing news came from the region: a local nuclear power plant was on fire.

The fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was caused by shelling by Russian forces who were trying to take control of the facility.

Recall that earlier Russia had already seized the inactive Chernobyl station, located about 100 km north of Kyiv.

Unlike the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the Zaporizhzhia station is an important strategic facility. It is the largest in Europe and generates approximately 20% of the total volume of all Ukrainian electricity.

The news of the fire at the nuclear power plant raised great concerns about its safety. The threat of a second Chernobyl quickly sowed panic in the stock markets and increased the demand for safe-haven assets.

This morning, gold rose sharply by 0.6% to $1,948.60. However, later, when comments from the Ukrainian authorities about the real situation at the nuclear power plant appeared, the quotes also plummeted.

Ukraine informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that the fire did not affect the main equipment. It was also noted that the radiation background is not disturbed.

The severity of the incident was also assessed by US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm. She assured that all reactors at the Zaporizhzhia NPP are reliably protected and will be safely shut down in an emergency.

Despite the fact that the level of anxiety about the emergency at the nuclear power plant has already decreased, gold still maintains a confident upward trend. Now bullion is aiming to end the current week with an increase.

According to preliminary estimates, since Monday, the yellow asset has risen in price by more than 2%. This is the best weekly increase in the precious metal since May last year.

Geopolitics continues to be the key pricing factor in the gold market. Yesterday, waiting for the outcome of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, the cost of bullion rose to $1,935.90. The difference with the previous trade, when the quotes fell by 1.1%, amounted to 0.7%.

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Investors foresaw that the meeting of the two sides would not lead to a de-escalation of the conflict, and they were right. It seems that there is no point in hoping for a ceasefire anytime soon. The military operation will drag on for a long time, as a result of which the world economy may face a severe crisis.

Markets are already feeling the economic impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices are rising, fueling fears of accelerating inflation.

Wanting to protect their savings during a period of great uncertainty, many traders get rid of risky financial instruments and buy protective assets.

According to analyst Peter Grosskopf, gold currently has the biggest potential. The expert advises investors to ignore the daily price fluctuations that have been observed in recent days and focus on the larger upward trend of the precious metal.

Grosskopf expects that interest in gold will continue to grow, as there will be a lot of volatility in the stock markets. This is not about a major stock crash. In an environment where both geopolitical and inflationary risks are huge, the usual correction will be enough to scare traders and increase their interest in the precious metal.

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IFX Gertrude
03-08-2022, 08:07 AM
Swiss National Bank pledges to stem franc's rise

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The euro/franc exchange rate fell to 0.9910 in Asia overnight, as investors sought refuge in the Swiss currency. The valuation is the highest level for the franc since January 2015 when the Swiss central bank scrapped its peg to the euro. "The Swiss franc is currently sought after as a refuge currency, along with the US dollar and the yen," the central bank said in a statement.

"The Swiss franc continues to be highly valued," it added. "The SNB remains prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary."

The verbal intervention is an unusual move by the central bank, which last gave a separate statement indicating its concerns about the franc's appreciation after Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016.

"While the SNB has been rather relaxed about the appreciation of the Swiss franc in the last months ... a drop below parity could change its attitude because parity is also a psychologically important threshold," UBS economist Alessandro Bee said.

The SNB said the increased valuation of the franc, which is a danger for Switzerland's export-dominated economy, also recognized the inflation differentials between Switzerland and other countries.

Consumer price inflation in Switzerland rose to a higher-than-expected 2.2% in February, the highest level since 2008, but well below the 5.8% level in the neighboring eurozone, Switzerland's biggest export market.

The SNB on Monday said it looked at the overall currency situation rather than individual currency pairs.

Sight deposit data, a proxy for the SNB's foreign currency purchases, showed a rise of just 500 million francs last week, indicating a small amount of intervention. Obviously, the bank is hoping with the announcement of its measures to achieve some outflow on the foreign exchange market.

"I expect the SNB to fight this appreciation only moderately because it cannot change the environment for investors that just seek safety," J. Safra Sarasin economist Karsten Junius said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a "special operation" has introduced uncertainties as the global economy looks to move towards monetary policy normalization, SNB Governing Board Member Andrea Maechler said in an interview published on Saturday.

Her comments pointed out that the crisis had delayed the SNB's plans to retreat from the negative interest rates and foreign exchange purchases, which had been the basis of its expansive approach.

The Swiss central bank gives its next monetary policy update on March 24. Obviously, if cash inflows continue, the institution will be forced to lower the franc exchange rate, otherwise exports and imports will cost the Swiss too much.

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IFX Gertrude
03-09-2022, 05:54 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.56%

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At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.56% to a 6-month low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.73%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.28%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 13.30 points or 6.76% to close at 210.00. Chevron Corp rose 8.49 points or 5.24% to close at 170.53. Boeing Co rose 4.63 points or 2.74% to close at 173.80.

Shares of Coca-Cola Co were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 2.42 points (3.96%), ending the session at 58.66. Procter & Gamble Company rose 3.96% or 6.05 points to close at 146.79 while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shed 2.75% or 13.41 points to close at 473.46.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Enphase Energy Inc, which rose 10.82% to 175.99, SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which gained 10.41% to close at 328.91, and also shares of Quanta Services Inc, which rose 8.17% to close the session at 116.83.

The biggest losers were Seagate Technology PLC, which shed 9.51% to close at 90.57. Shares of ConAgra Foods Inc shed 8.22% to end the session at 30.93. Quotes of Intuitive Surgical Inc decreased in price by 7.98% to 269.32.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 203.31% to 1.00, Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 88.49% to close at 1.15. as well as shares of Westport Fuel Systems Inc, which rose 52.63% to end the session at 2.03.

The drop leaders were shares of Imperial Petroleum Inc, which fell 43.33% to close at 4.25. Shares of Inspirato Inc lost 42.78% to end the session at 15.25. Quotes of Digital Brands Group Inc decreased in price by 30.61% to 1.36.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1694) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1502), while quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2069 companies rose in price, 1727 fell, and 265 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.62% to 35.13.

Gold futures for April delivery added 3.12%, or 62.35, to $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for April delivery rose 4.44%, or 5.30, to $124.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.06%, or 0.08, to $129.27 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.00% to 1.09, while USD/JPY edged up 0.01% to hit 115.67.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.17% to 99.12.

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IFX Gertrude
03-10-2022, 10:49 AM
Reviews: European stock markets rise sharply ahead of the big day

In Wednesday's trading, key European indices showed strong gains. The German DAX is up by 5.32% after a permanent four-day decline. By the way, the DAX fell by more than 8% over the past week.

The STOXX Europe 600 index of Europe's leading companies rose by 2.5% to 425.66 points. The British FTSE 100 gained 2.1% to settle at 7,112.6 points, while the French CAC 40 jumped by 5.01% to 6,283.33 points.

The main reason for the spectacular rise in key European indices was the strong rally in the banking sector on the back of a stronger euro against the dollar. On Wednesday, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank shares soared by 8.3%, 7.97%, and 5.56% respectively.

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In Wednesday's trading, key European indices showed strong gains. The German DAX is up by 5.32% after a permanent four-day decline. By the way, the DAX fell by more than 8% over the past week.

The STOXX Europe 600 index of Europe's leading companies rose by 2.5% to 425.66 points. The British FTSE 100 gained 2.1% to settle at 7,112.6 points, while the French CAC 40 jumped by 5.01% to 6,283.33 points.

The main reason for the spectacular rise in key European indices was the strong rally in the banking sector on the back of a stronger euro against the dollar. On Wednesday, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank shares soared by 8.3%, 7.97%, and 5.56% respectively.

The securities of the German sportswear manufacturer Adidas climbed by more than 8%. The company's revenues rose by 15.2% to 21.23bn euros in the year to date. In addition, management of Adidas announced a 10% increase in dividend payments to 3.3 per share and projected sales growth of 11-13% in 2022.

Shares in German tyre and automotive components maker Continental jumped 4% following the release of the company's financial report. According to the latest figures, Continental posted a net profit last year and resumed paying dividends to shareholders.

The UK's Prudential Plc gained 6.8%. The insurance company increased its operating profit by 16% year-on-year in 2021. The main driver behind Prudential Plc's spectacular results was the strengthening of its business in the Asian region.

The capitalization of Russian miner Polymetal soared by 33%. The company's management reported smooth production processes in Russia and Kazakhstan despite Western countries' sanctions.

Shares in German postal and logistics company Deutsche Post AG rose 5.7% on a report of a 14% increase in net profit in the fourth quarter last year. In addition, the day before, the company announced the launch of a new 2bn buyback programme.

Another important upside factor for Europe's leading indicators was the steadily rising oil prices, which exceeded $130 a barrel on Wednesday morning. The day before US President Joe Biden announced that the White House had banned energy imports from the Russian Federation. The UK authorities have also announced their intention to move away from Russian oil by the end of 2022. In the meantime, the European Union plans to reduce the bloc's energy dependence on energy supplies from the Russian Federation.

On this news, the price of black gold instantly hit its highest levels since July 2008. In addition, decisive measures by Western countries carry the risks of further increases in the global cost of oil and a deterioration of the industry's supply chains.

At the same time, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, said the IEA was ready to bring more oil to market by releasing additional stocks.

In recent days, the increase in world oil prices has been partly held back by news that US black gold inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels over the week. At the same time, market analysts predicted a steady decline in the indicator. Experts believe that this state of affairs was the result of consumers' negative reaction to higher prices at petrol stations and, as a consequence, a refusal to travel.

This week's investor focus is on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting scheduled for Thursday. Market participants will be keeping a close eye on how the ECB will deal with the persistently rising inflation rate and the multiple difficulties caused by the military conflict in Ukraine.

In addition, the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers are scheduled to meet on March 10 in Turkey, which the world markets are expecting with great positivity and hope.

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IFX Gertrude
03-11-2022, 05:31 AM
US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.34%

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At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.43%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.95%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.55 points or 2.74% to close at 170.82. Walmart Inc rose 3.17 points (2.27%) to close at 142.63. Dow Inc rose 0.83 points or 1.39% to close at 60.63.

Shares of Apple Inc became the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 4.43 points (2.72%), ending the session at 158.52. Procter & Gamble Company was up 2.57% or 3.83 points to close at 144.94, while Cisco Systems Inc was down 2.16% or 1.21 points to close at 54.71.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Halliburton Company, which rose 8.93% to hit 37.95, Baker Hughes Co, which gained 8.67% to close at 36.74, and Mosaic Co, which rose 7.74% to end the session at 62.19.

Etsy Inc was the biggest loser, shedding 5.35% to close at 136.98. Shares of EPAM Systems Inc lost 4.86% to end the session at 188.76. Quotes of MSCI Inc decreased in price by 4.69% to 465.26.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 138.10% to hit 1.50, AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd, which gained 102.37% to close at 3.42 , as well as shares of Hoth Therapeutics Inc, which rose 38.79% to close the session at 0.80.

The biggest losers were Trean Insurance Group Inc, which shed 51.70% to close at 3.40. Shares of Fossil Group Inc lost 37.51% and ended the session at 9.08. Quotes TherapeuticsMD Inc fell in price by 27.50% to 0.29.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1836) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1367), and quotes of 128 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,282 companies fell in price, 1,463 rose, and 253 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 6.84% to 30.23.

Gold futures for April delivery added 0.68% or 13.60 to hit $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures fell 2.64%, or 2.87, to $105.83 a barrel. Futures for Brent oil for May delivery fell 0.04%, or 0.04, to $109.15 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.05% to 1.10, while USD/JPY rallied 0.00% to hit 116.14.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.58% to 98.53.

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IFX Gertrude
03-14-2022, 05:56 AM
Asia-Pacific stocks are generally down

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As of 07:28 GMT+2, the Shanghai Composite Index is down 1.3% to 3266.73 points, the Shenzhen Composite Exchange is down 1.47% to 2141.27 points, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is by 3.75%, up to 19783.61 points. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 is up 1.12% to 7142.4 points, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 is up 1.09% to 25429.5 points. South Korean KOSPI is down 0.73% to 2641.85 points.

Asian stock markets are mostly negative on Monday as investors watch the developments around Chinese companies listed in the US. Earlier, the US Securities and Exchange Commission presented a list of five companies that may be delisted.

According to Daily FX analysts quoted by the Wall Street Journal, the quotes of Chinese technology giants listed on US stock exchanges have been falling for the second day in a row due to fears of delisting them.

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IFX Gertrude
03-15-2022, 05:42 AM
AUSTRALIA HOUSE PRICES JUMP 4.7% ON QUARTER IN Q4

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House prices in Australia were up 4.7 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for a gain of 3.9 percent and was down from the 5.0 percent increase in the third quarter.

On a yearly basis, house prices jumped 23.7 percent, up from 21.7 percent.

The total value of residential dwellings in Australia rose A$512.6 billion to A$9,901.6 billion in Q4, and the mean price of residential dwellings rose A$44,000 to A$920,100.

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IFX Gertrude
03-16-2022, 06:05 AM
SOUTH KOREA JOBLESS RATE FALLS IN FEBRUARY

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South Korea's unemployment rate declined in February, data from Statistics Korea showed on Wednesday.

The jobless rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent in February from 3.6 percent in January. In the same month last year, the unemployment rate was 3.9 percent.

On an unadjusted basis, the unemployment rate declined to 3.4 percent in February from 4.1 percent in the previous month.

The number of unemployed decreased to 954,000 in February from 1.143 million in the preceding month. Compared to a year ago, the figure decreased by 399,000 persons.

The number of employed persons increased by 1.037 million year-on-year to 27.402 million in February.

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IFX Gertrude
03-17-2022, 05:54 AM
SINGAPORE NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS SINK 2.8% IN FEBRUARY

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The value of non-oil domestic exports in Singapore was down a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent on month in February, Statistics Singapore said on Thursday/

That missed expectations for a decline of 0.3 percent following the 5.0 percent increase in January.

On a yearly basis, non-oil domestic exports climbed 9.5 percent - again missing forecasts for an increase or 15.7 percent and down from 17.6 percent in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
03-18-2022, 05:15 AM
JAPAN CONSUMER PRICES JUMP 0.9% ON YEAR IN FEBRUARY

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Consumer prices in Japan were up 0.9 percent on year in February, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday.

That exceeded forecasts for an increase of 0.7 percent and accelerated from 0.5 percent in January.

On a monthly basis, inflation added 0.4 percent following the flat reading in the previous month.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, rose 0.6 percent on year after gaining 0.2 percent a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
03-21-2022, 05:23 AM
NEW ZEALAND HAS NZ$385 MILLION TRADE SHORTFALL IN FEBRUARY

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Japan posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade deficit of NZ$385 million in February, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday. That follows the downwardly revised NZ$1,126 million deficit in January (originally a trade deficit of NZ$1.082 billion).

Exports were worth NZ$5.49 billion last month, up from the downwardly revised NZ$4.8 billion a month earlier (originally NZ$4.86 billion).

Imports were at NZ$5.88 billion, down from the downwardly revised NZ$5.92 billion in the previous month (originally NZ$5.94 billion).

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IFX Gertrude
03-22-2022, 12:28 AM
JAPAN LEADING INDEX DATA DUE ON TUESDAY

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Japan will on Tuesday release final January figures for its leading and coincident indexes, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In December, the leading index had a score of 104.7, while the coincident was at 92.7.

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IFX Gertrude
03-23-2022, 12:11 AM
SOUTH KOREA PRODUCER PRICES RISE 8.4% ON YEAR IN FEBRUARY

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Producer prices in South Korea were up 8.4 percent on year in February, the Bank of Korea said on Wednesday - slowing from 8.9 percent in January.

Individually, prices for agricultural, forestry and marine products fell 6.6 percent on year, while manufacturing products jumped 14.0 percent, utilities climbed 12.0 percent and services rose 2.5 percent.

On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 0.4 percent, down from 1.1 percent in the previous month.

Individually, prices for agricultural, forestry and marine products fell 5.1 percent on month, while manufacturing products added 1.1 percent, utilities eased 0.1 percent and services were flat.

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IFX Gertrude
03-24-2022, 05:12 AM
BOJ MINUTES: JAPAN ECONOMY CONTINUES TO RECOVER

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Members of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Board said that Japan's economic recovery is continuing at a satisfactory pace in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, minutes from the bank's January 17-18 meeting revealed on Thursday.

Corporate profits and business sentiment continue to improve, the minutes showed, although employment and income remain weak.

To that end, the board said it finds it appropriate to maintain its current monetary easing and support stability in the financial markets.

At the meeting, the BoJ voted 8-1 to maintain its monetary policy stimulus unchanged at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the central bank. It also lifted its inflation forecast for the next fiscal year, citing a rise in commodity prices.

The bank also said it will continue to purchase a necessary amount of Japanese government bonds without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent.

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IFX Gertrude
03-25-2022, 12:53 AM
TOKYO INFLATION DATA DUE ON FRIDAY

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Japan will on Friday release March figures for consumer prices in the Tokyo region, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In February, overall inflation was up 1.0 percent on year and core CPI rose an annual 0.5 percent.

Singapore will release February numbers for industrial production, with forecasts suggesting a decline of 0.9 percent on month and an increase of 6.3 percent on year. That follows the 10.7 percent monthly drop and the 2.0 percent yearly gain in January.

Taiwan will see March results for its consumer confidence index; in February, the index score was 73.19.

China will provide final Q4 figures for current account; in the three months prior, the current account surplus was $73.6 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
03-28-2022, 06:58 AM
HONG KONG TRADE DATA DUE ON MONDAY

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Hong Kong will on Monday release February figures for imports, exports and trade balance, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In January, imports were up 9.6 percent on year and exports jumped an annual 18.4 percent, resulting in a HKD6.6 billion trade surplus.

Taiwan will see March results for its consumer confidence index; in February, the index score was 73.19.

The Philippines also will provide Q1 results for its consumer confidence index; the reading in the three months prior was -24.0.

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IFX Gertrude
03-29-2022, 04:21 AM
AUSTRALIA RETAIL SALES JUMP 1.8% IN FEBRUARY

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The total value of retail sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 1.8 percent on month in February, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - coming in at A$33.085 billion.

That beat expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent following the downwardly revised 1.6 percent increase in January (originally 1.8 percent).

Individually, sales were up for household goods, clothing, department stores and restaurants; sales were down for food retailing and other retailing.

On a yearly basis, retail sales climbed 9.1 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
03-30-2022, 02:07 AM
JAPAN RETAIL SALES SINK 0.8% IN FEBRUARY

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The total value of retail sales in Japan was down 0.8 percent on year in February, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Wednesday - coming in at 11.537 trillion yen.

That missed expectations for a loss of 0.3 percent following the downwardly revised 1.1 percent increase in January (originally 1.6 percent).

On a monthly basis, retail sales were again down 0.8 percent after slipping 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Commercial sales were down 0.2 percent on month and up 6.2 percent on year to 44.732 trillion yen, while wholesale sales dropped 1.5 percent on month and gained 8.8 percent on year to 33.196 trillion yen.

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IFX Gertrude
03-31-2022, 02:35 AM
AUSTRALIA PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT GAINS 0.6% ON MONTH IN FEBRUARY

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Private sector credit in Australia was up 0.6 percent on month in February, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Thursday - unchanged from the January reading.

Housing credit also rose 0.6 percent on month, while personal credit was flat and business credit gained 0.8 percent.

On a yearly basis, overall credit jumped 7.9 percent - accelerating from 7.6 percent in the previous month.

Housing credit gained an annual 7.8 percent, while personal credit fell 3.0 percent and business credit jumped 98 percent.

Broad money was up 0.3 percent on month and 8.8 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
04-01-2022, 12:39 AM
BOJ TANKAN: LARGE MANUFACTURERS INDEX SLIPS TO +14

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Large manufacturing in Japan weakened in the first quarter of 2022, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan Survey of business sentiment showed on Friday with a diffusion index score of +14.

That beat forecasts for a reading of +12 and was down from +18 three months ago.

The outlook came in at +9, missing expectations for +10 and down from +13 in the previous quarter.

Large all industry capex is now seen higher by 2.2 percent, missing forecasts for a gain of 5.0 percent and down from 9.3 percent in the previous three months.

The large non-manufacturers index came in at +9, beating forecasts for +5 and unchanged from the previous month. The outlook was +7, missing forecasts for +8, which would have been unchanged.

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IFX Gertrude
04-04-2022, 06:33 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY FOREIGN TRADE DATA DUE

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Foreign trade from Germany and investor confidence survey results from eurozone are due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is slated to issue Germany's foreign trade data for February. Exports are forecast to climb 1.5 percent on month, reversing a 2.8 percent fall in January. Economists expect imports to grow 1.4 percent, in contrast to the 4.2 percent decline a month ago.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's unemployment data is due.

In the meantime, consumer and producer prices are due from Turkey. Economists expect inflation to surge to 61.6 percent in March from 54.4 percent in February.

At 4.30 am ET, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence survey results are due. The sentiment index is forecast to fall to -9.2 in April from -7.0 in March.

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IFX Gertrude
04-05-2022, 12:57 AM
JAPAN SERVICES PMI IMPROVES TO 49.4 IN MARCH - JIBUN

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The services sector in Japan continued to contract in March, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Tuesday with a services PMI score of 49.4.

That's up from 44.2 in February, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

While firms were still impacted by high case numbers, others reported that the easing of restrictions had boosted customer numbers. New business inflows returned to expansion territory for the first time in three months during March. The rise was only marginal, as panelists noted that domestic demand strengthened as COVID-19 restrictions were lifted. However, new export orders saw the rate of decline accelerate to the fastest since January 2021 as a result of renewed restrictions across China and uncertainty due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

The survey also said its composite index moved into expansion at 50.3 in March, up from 45.8 in February.

Growth was driven by a renewed rise in manufacturing output while services firms noted a much softer decline. Aggregate new orders also rose modestly for the fifth time in six months, and at the strongest since last December. Service providers noted the first upturn for three months while growth continued at manufacturers.

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IFX Gertrude
04-06-2022, 05:43 AM
CHINA SERVICE SECTOR CONTRACTS SHARPLY AS VIRUS CONTAINMENT STEPS TIGHTEN

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China's service sector contracted notably in March as the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and restrictions to limit the spread of the virus led to a marked drop in activity, survey results from S&P Global showed on Wednesday.

The Caixin services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 42.0 in March from 50.2 in February. This was the steepest fall since the initial onset of the pandemic in February 2020. Total new work decreased at the fastest pace since March 2020.

Pandemic-related restrictions, notably those on mobility, were frequently attributed to lower customer numbers and softer demand conditions.

Staffing levels fell in March but the pace of reduction was only fractional. At the same time, disruption to business operations led to a further increase in the level of outstanding business.

There was a stronger rise in input costs faced by services companies. The rate of inflation was solid overall and quicker than the series average.

Although fees charged by services companies rose slightly, the rate of increase was the softest seen in the current seven-month period of inflation.

When assessing the 12-month outlook for business activity, Chinese services companies were generally upbeat that output would expand over the next year. However, the degree of optimism slipped to its lowest for 19 months.

China's overall private sector activity shrank the most since the initial onset of the pandemic in February 2020.

The composite output index fell to 43.9 in March from 50.1 in the previous month. The reading reflected renewed falls in both manufacturing and services activity, with the latter noting the faster rate of decline.

"At present, China is facing the most severe wave of outbreaks since the beginning of 2020, Wang Zhe, a senior economist at Caixin Insight Group said. Uncertainty also increased abroad.

The outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the commodity market has convulsed, Wang added. Several factors have aggravated the downward pressure on China's economy and underscore the risk of stagflation.

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IFX Gertrude
04-07-2022, 06:03 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DATA DUE

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Industrial production from Germany and house prices from the UK are due Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's industrial production data for February. Economists forecast output to fall 0.2 percent on a monthly basis, in contrast to the 2.7 percent increase posted in January.

In the meantime, UK Halifax house price data is due for March. House prices had climbed 10.8 percent annually in February.

Also, industrial production data from Norway is due at 2.00 am ET.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat releases eurozone retail sales data for February. Sales are expected to grow at a faster pace of 0.6 percent on month after rising 0.2 percent in January.

At 6.00 am ET, consumer price data is due from Ireland.

At 7.30 am ET, the European Central Bank publishes the account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council held on March 9 and 10.

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IFX Gertrude
04-08-2022, 05:57 AM
INDIA CENTRAL BANK KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED

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India's central bank left its key interest rate unchanged, as widely expected, and maintained its accommodative stance.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India, led by Governor Shaktikanta Das, unanimously decided to retain the policy repo rate at 4.00 percent. The reverse repo rate was left unchanged at 3.35 percent.

The marginal standing facility rate and the bank rate remained unchanged at 4.25 percent.

The central bank today downgraded its growth outlook for the fiscal year 2022-23 to 7.2 percent from 7.8 percent.

At the same time, the bank raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 5.7 percent from 4.5 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
04-11-2022, 05:46 AM
EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: UK GDP DATA DUE

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Monthly GDP data from the UK is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK GDP, industrial production and foreign trade data for February. The UK economy is forecast grow 0.3 percent month-on-month, after rising 0.8 percent in January.

The UK visible trade deficit is seen narrowing to GBP 20 billion in February from GBP 26.5 billion in January.

In the meantime, Statistics Norway issues consumer and producer prices for March. Inflation is expected to rise to 5.0 percent from 3.7 percent in February.

At 3.00 am ET, consumer price data is due from the Czech Republic. Economists forecast inflation to advance to 12.4 percent in March from 11.1 percent in February. Also, unemployment and current account figures are due from Turkey.

At 8.00 am ET, the UK NIESR monthly GDP tracker is due for March.

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