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IFX Gertrude
04-25-2019, 03:13 AM
South Korea GDP Slips 0.3% In Q1

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South Korea's gross domestic product contracted a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2019, the Bank of Korea said in Thursday's advanced estimate.

That follows the 1.0 percent increase in the three months prior.

On an annualized yearly basis, GDP climbed 1.8 percent, slowing from the 2.7 percent increase in the previous three months.

Real gross domestic income picked up 0.2 percent on quarter because of an improvement in terms of trade, the bank said.

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IFX Gertrude
04-26-2019, 04:34 AM
Japan Retail Sales Add 0.2% On Month In March

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Retail sales in Japan were up a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on month in March, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.

That beat expectations for a flat reading and was down from the 0.4 percent increase in February.

On a yearly basis, retail sales climbed 1.0 percent - also beating forecasts for a gain of 0.8 percent and up from 0.6 percent in the previous month.

Large retailer sales were up an annual 0.6 percent, beating forecasts for a drop of 1.8 percent - which would have been unchanged.

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IFX Yvonne
04-29-2019, 08:14 AM
Finland Consumer Confidence Slows In April

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Finland's consumer confidence slowed in April after rising in the previous month, survey data from Statistics Finland showed on Monday.

The consumer confidence index rose to 15.7 from 16.1 in March. The reading remained above its long-term average of 12.7.

The survey was conducted among 1,143 persons in Finland between April 1 and 17.

Among the four sub-indexes, only consumers' expectations concerning Finland's economy improved slightly in April. Households' personal finance expectations eased, while they were less pessimistic regarding the situation in Finland's economy.

Elsewhere, survey data from the Confederation of Finnish Industries showed that the manufacturing confidence index dropped to -1 in April from 1 in March.

Morale deteriorated in construction, while it improved in services and retail trade.

IFX Gertrude
05-02-2019, 01:55 AM
Rising oil prices pose a problem for the global economy - Morgan Stanley

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According to analysts of the largest bank Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, the markets underestimate the risks associated with rising oil prices. Investors are careless over this fact, although they should purchase low-cost energy stocks to hedge their portfolios so as not to lose.

At the beginning of this week, the situation on the stock markets developed favorably, which is why investors have lost their vigilance, bank experts say. On Monday, April 29, the S&P 500 index updated its record high. The main catalyst for its growth were US data. By the end of March 2019, consumer spending in America rose substantially, and the base rate of inflation, which the Fed carefully monitors, fell to an annual low. This can affect the decision of the regulator about the interest rate, analysts believe. The positive dynamics of the S&P 500 index suggests that investors are satisfied with oil prices, which is not very good, Morgan Stanley believes.

Experts advise market participants not to rest on their laurels, noting that the current rise in oil prices could be a problem for the global economy. If the cost of oil remains at the current level until the end of this year, the consumer price index may exceed 3%, creating a problem for the Fed. At the same time, the purchasing power of the population will significantly decrease, putting pressure on corporate profits and slowing economic growth in China and in emerging markets, Morgan Stanley believes.

Recall that the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil have recently reached their highest level in the last six months. On Tuesday, April 30, Brent crude rose by 1.10% to $ 72.74 per barrel. According to experts, the price of black gold will remain high or continue to grow, if OPEC and its allies extend the term of the agreement on the restriction of raw materials supply. It is possible that a decision will be taken at the next meeting in June of this year.

In the current situation, bank analysts recommend buying cheap oil stocks to hedge their portfolio, especially if so-called "growth stocks" prevail. These include papers purchased for the cyclical recovery of the economy. This will help lower the risks in the future, according to Morgan Stanley.

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IFX Yvonne
05-03-2019, 06:43 AM
Franc Falls Ahead Of Swiss CPI

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At 2:30 am ET Friday, Swiss CPI for April is due. Ahead of the data, the franc dropped against its major counterparts.

The franc was worth 109.28 against the yen, 1.0202 against the greenback, 1.1394 against the euro and 1.3295 against the pound at 2:25 am ET.

IFX Yvonne
05-06-2019, 07:45 AM
Sweden Services Growth Slows For Second Month

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Sweden's services sector growth slowed for a second month in a row in April, but has stabilized in recent months, suggesting a bottom in the cycle, survey results from the Swedbank and the logistics business lobby Silf showed on Monday.

The Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, for the services sector fell to 54 from 55.1 in March. A reading above 50 suggests growth in the sector.

The next few months will be decisive to determine the direction of the services cycle, Jorgen Kennemar, the economist responsible for analysis for PMI at Swedbank, said.

Overall private sector growth also slowed for the second consecutive month with the Composite PMI falling to 53.2 in April from 54.4 in March.

That means weaker activity in the business sector, but also suggests a stabilization, Kennemar said.

IFX Gertrude
05-07-2019, 05:00 AM
Aussie Steady Ahead Of RBA Decision

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At 12:30 am ET Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision on interest rates. The RBA is widely expected to cut its benchmark lending rate by 25 bps to 1.25 percent.

Ahead of the announcement, the aussie held steady against its major rivals.

The aussie was worth 77.44 against the yen, 1.6012 against the euro, 0.6999 against the greenback and 1.0592 against the kiwi as of 12:25 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
05-08-2019, 02:08 AM
What was Trump really up to?

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It's no secret that Donald Trump likes to intimidate the markets; this is his favorite weapon. It is equally safe to say that all these threats cannot be taken at face value. If Washington actually introduces new duties, which Trump tweeted, then the tariff barrier between the US and China will be higher than in many developing countries.

All these emotional outbursts are more like a continuation of the game "who blinks first," rather than a change in the course of trade negotiations. In this case, a logical question arises: what did Trump actually plan?

There are suggestions that China has nothing to do with it, and Trump's tweets are part of a certain president's game with the Fed. Earlier, the pressure was on the central bank to strengthen the position of the economy, which could bear the consequences of a trade war without complications. Perhaps now Trump is trying to drive the Fed into a corner. If trade uncertainty exists, the regulator will be forced to lower rates and ensure an economic boom before the 2020 elections. By the way, expectations for a reduction in the rate have now increased, whereas a few days ago they were declining.

It is unlikely that the head of the White House plays a strategic game, but in general, events confirm this. In addition, he has to reckon with what is happening in the foreign exchange market. The Chinese yuan, most of the post-crisis era, became cheaper following the slow growth of the country's economy. Companies that are subject to Chinese risk lagged behind other stocks, the exchange rate increased the competitiveness of the state. That all changed a little over a year ago, in part because of concerns about a trade dispute with the United States. On Monday, Chinese stocks plummeted, and the yuan fell to its lowest level in more than three years.

The authorities of China continue to carefully monitor the national currency, so it will not be easy for Donald Trump to increase the competitiveness of the US economy. More precisely it is impossible. We need the Fed to lower the rate.

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IFX Gertrude
05-09-2019, 03:08 AM
Dollar Up Slightly As Trade War Concerns Linger

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The U.S. dollar was mostly subdued slightly above the unchanged line on Wednesday with traders weighing political and economic news from across the globe for direction.

The ongoing trade spat between the U.S. and China threatens to significantly impact global economic growth.

Earlier this week, the markets were reacting to news that the U.S. administration will hike tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% from the existing 10% from this Friday.

U.S. President Donald Trump noted in a post on Twitter that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will be a part of the talks, claiming the high-ranking official is "coming to the U.S. to make a deal."

"We'll see, but I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers...great for U.S., not good for China!" Trump tweeted.

Trump also claimed China is attempting to renegotiate terms of a trade deal in order to strike a new deal with a Democratic president that continues to rip off the U.S.

The U.S. dollar index, which 97.68, was last seen hovering around 97.60, up 0.06% from previous close.

Against the Euro, the dollar was $1.1192, after moving between $1.1183 and $1.1215.

The British Pound Sterling weakened to $1.3009, losing more than 0.5% against the dollar.

The Chinese yuan was down 0.2% against the greenback, extending losses to a third straight day, due to rising concerns over U.S.-China trade war.

The Aussie and loonie were lower by 0.37% and 0.04%, respectively, against the greenback. The Swiss franc was down as well, with the dollar-franc pair trading at 1.0208.

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IFX Gertrude
05-10-2019, 02:54 AM
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Edge Lower In March

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A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday unexpectedly showed a modest decrease in U.S. wholesale inventories in the month of March.

The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories edged down by 0.1 percent in March after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.4 percent in February. Economists had expected inventories to come in unchanged.

The slight drop in wholesale inventories came as inventories of non-durable goods slid by 0.6 percent amid a sharp pullback in inventories of drugs.

On the other hand, the report said inventories of durable goods rose by 0.3 percent, reflecting notable increases in inventories of machinery and metals.

The Commerce Department also said wholesale sales surged up by 2.3 percent in March after rising by 0.3 percent in February.

Sales of durable goods jumped by 1.4 percent amid sharp increases in sales of electrical equipment and miscellaneous durable goods.

A spike in sales of petroleum products also contributed to a 3.1 percent leap in sales of non-durable goods.

With inventories falling and sales soaring, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers dropped to 1.32 in March from 1.35 in February.

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IFX Gertrude
05-14-2019, 04:54 AM
Japan Has 2,847.9 Billion Current Account Surp

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Japan posted a current account surplus of 2,847.9 billion yen in March, the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday - down 10.6 percent on year.

That missed forecasts for a surplus of 3,007.2 billion but was still up from 2,676.8 billion in February.

The trade balance showed a surplus of 700.1 billion yen, also missing expectations for 838.9 billion yen and up from 489.2 billion yen in the previous month.

Exports fell 5.2 percent on year to 7.058 trillion yen, while imports added an annual 1.5 percent to 6.358 trillion yen.

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IFX Gertrude
05-15-2019, 04:23 AM
China's Industrial Output Growth Slows

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China's industrial production and retail sales growth eased in April, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.

Industrial production advanced 5.4 percent year-on-year in April, following March's 8.5 percent increase. The growth rate was forecast to slow moderately to 6.5 percent.

Likewise, annual growth in retail sales eased to 7.2 percent from 8.7 percent a month ago. Sales were forecast to expand 8.6 percent.

Data showed that fixed asset investment climbed 6.1 percent during January to April period compared to the 6.3 percent expansion logged in January to March period. Economists had forecast 6.4 percent growth.

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IFX Gertrude
05-16-2019, 04:34 AM
Australia Jobless Rate Rises To 5.2% In April

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The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was above forecasts for 5.0 percent and up from the upwardly revised 5.1 percent in March (originally 5.0 percent).

The Australian economy added 28,400 jobs last month - exceeding expectations for an increase of 15,000 following the gain of 25,700 a month earlier.

The participation rate ticked up to 65.8 percent, beating forecasts for 65.7 percent - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
05-20-2019, 03:46 AM
New Zealand Performance Of Service Index Slows In April

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The services sector in New Zealand continued to expand in April, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from BusinessNZ revealed on Monday with a Performance of Services Index score of 51.8.

That's down from 52.3 in March, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The April reading was the third straight monthly decline and the lowest index reading since September 2012.

Individually, sales, supplier deliveries and new orders expanded, while stocks and employment were in contraction.

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IFX Gertrude
05-21-2019, 05:32 AM
Singapore Lowers 2019 Growth Outlook

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Singapore's economic growth outlook for this year was lowered as the manufacturing sector is set to log a sharp slowdown on weak global demand.

The city-state economy is forecast to grow 1.5 to 2.5 percent in 2019 compared to previous projection of 1.5 to 3.5 percent, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said Tuesday.

The ministry said the global growth outlook remains clouded by uncertainties and downside risks. The manufacturing sector is expected to face strong headwinds on account of a sharper-than-expected downturn in the global electronics cycle, as well as uncertainties arising from the ongoing trade conflicts.

Elsewhere, Enterprise Singapore maintained its total trade growth projection for 2019 at 0 to 2 percent, while non-oil domestic exports growth forecast was downgraded to -2 to 0 percent.

In the first quarter, gross domestic product climbed 1.2 percent year-on-year, following the 1.3 percent expansion seen in the previous quarter, the MTI reported. Meanwhile, on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, the economy expanded 3.8 percent, a reversal from the 0.8 percent contraction in the preceding quarter.

The manufacturing sector shrank 0.5 percent as global demand for semiconductor equipment weakened. On the other hand, construction expanded 2.9 percent, a turnaround from the 1.2 percent decline in the previous three months.

The wholesale and retail trade sector shrank 1.8 percent, while the transportation and storage sector posted 0.8 percent growth. The accommodation & food services sector grew 1.8 percent.

Data showed that the information and communications sector expanded by 6.6 percent and the finance & insurance sector by 3.2 percent. Growth in the business services sector eased to 2.3 percent. The "other services industries" grew at a faster pace of 2.2 percent.

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IFX Yvonne
05-22-2019, 06:55 AM
Japan Supermarket Sales Decline In April

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Japan's supermarket sales declined in April, data from the Chain Store Association showed Wednesday.

Supermarket sales dropped 1 percent year-on-year in April, reversing a 0.5 percent rise in March.

The annual drop was largely driven by clothing sales, which fell 7 percent. Meanwhile, services and household goods sales expanded from last year.

Before adjustment, sales grew 0.2 percent but slower than the 2 percent increase seen a month ago.

On a monthly basis, supermarket sales declined 1.6 percent in April.

IFX Gertrude
05-27-2019, 04:54 AM
China Industrial Profits Decline In April

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China's industrial profits decreased in April, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday.

In April, profits of large industrial firms declined 3.7 percent on year in contrast to an increase of 13.9 percent growth in March.

Industrial profits fell 3.4 percent in the first four months of 2019 from the same period of last year compared to a decrease of 3.3 percent in three months to March.

Zhu Hong of the statistics bureau said the decline in profits in April was driven by the timing of Value Added Tax cut.

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IFX Gertrude
05-28-2019, 05:26 AM
Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.9% On Year In April

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.9 percent on year in April, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.1 percent on year, which would have been unchanged from the March reading.

On a monthly basis, producer prices slipped 0.2 percent after advancing 0.7 percent a month earlier.

Individually, prices were up for leading and office space rental - while they were lower for transportation, employment agencies, software development, engineering, communications and advertising.

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IFX Gertrude
05-29-2019, 04:55 AM
UK Shop Price Inflation Accelerates In May

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UK shop price inflation increased notably in May on non-food prices, the British Retail Consortium reported Wednesday. Shop prices inflation doubled to 0.8 percent in May from 0.4 percent in April.

Food prices climbed 1.8 percent annually and non-food prices gained 0.2 percent. Food inflation continued to slow but it remained above the 12-month average. At the same time, non-food categories such as furniture and health and beauty follow years of deep discounting.

Shop price growth in May was the second highest inflation rate seen in the last six years, though it remains well below headline inflation, Helen Dickinson, chief executive at BRC said.

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IFX Gertrude
05-30-2019, 04:46 AM
New Zealand 2019 Budget Lifts Spending

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New Zealand government plans to raise spending over the forecast period and lowered its economic growth projection.

"In this first Wellbeing Budget our priorities are focused on tackling the long-term challenges facing New Zealand," Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in his budget speech on Thursday.

"The Government has delivered the critical investments needed to help address the long-term challenges facing New Zealand, while remaining in line with our self-imposed Budget Responsibility Rules," Robertson said.

The annual operating allowance in Budget 2019 was raised to NZ$3.8 billion from NZ$2.4 billion. The operating allowance for Budget 2020 has also increased to NZ$3.0 billion from NZ$2.4 billion.

The economy is forecast to grow at 2.6 percent on average over the next five years. Gross domestic product is expected to expand 3.2 percent next year from an estimated 2.1 percent this year. The projection for 2019 was lowered from 2.9 percent.

The budget forecast an operating surplus of NZ$3.5 billion for the year ending June. Government debt is expected to fall to 19.9 percent in 2022.

The unemployment currently at 4.2 percent is set to remain at around 4 percent across the forecast period, he said.

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IFX Gertrude
05-31-2019, 04:07 AM
China Manufacturing PMI Falls Into Contraction

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The manufacturing sector in China turned to contraction in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.4.

That was shy of expectations for 49.9 and down from 50.1 in April. It also fell below the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.3 - unchanged from the previous month and in line with expectations.

The composite index had a score of 53.3, down fractionally from 53.4 a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
06-03-2019, 02:53 AM
Myanmar Manufacturing Sector Accelerates In May - Nikkei

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The manufacturing sector in Myanmar continued to contract in May, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 54.2.

That's up from 53.7 in April, and it moves farther above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, operating conditions improved at a solid rate, while there was faster growth in output and new orders. Employment expansion was the quickest in series history.

At the same time, input costs increased further in May, with the rate of inflation picking up to a six-month high

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IFX Gertrude
06-04-2019, 04:40 AM
South Korea Inflation Rises 0.2% In May

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Consumer prices in South Korea were up 0.2 percent on month in May, Statistics Korea said on Tuesday - following the 0.2 percent decline in April.

On a yearly basis, inflation advanced 0.7 percent - accelerating from 0.4 percent in the previous month.

Core CPI - which excludes volatile food prices - sank 0.2 percent on month and added0.6 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
06-07-2019, 01:11 AM
New Zealand Q1 Volume Of Building Soars 6.2%

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The overall volume of building in New Zealand climbed a seasonally adjusted 6.2 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 1.1 percent and was up sharply from the upwardly revised 3.4 percent gain in the three months prior (originally 2.7 percent).

Non-residential building volume rose a seasonally adjusted 9.0 percent, the bureau said, while residential building volume rose a seasonally adjusted 4.3 percent.

The actual value of total building work was NZ$6.1 billion in the March 2019 quarter - up 16 percent from the March 2018 quarter.

By region, the actual value of total building work in the March 2019 quarter (compared with the March 2018 quarter) was: NZ$2.5 billion in Auckland - up 26 percent; NZ$595 million in Waikato - up 30 percent; NZ$474 million in Wellington - up 1.5 percent; NZ$950 million in rest of North Island - up 13 percent; NZ$931 million in Canterbury - down 1.0 percent; and NZ$618 million in rest of South Island - up 12 percent. In the year ended March 2019, the national value of residential building work rose NZ$1.1 billion (7.9 percent) when compared with the previous March year - driven by an NZ$861 million (16 percent) increase in Auckland.

In the year ended March 2019, the national value of non-residential building work rose NZ$923 million (12 percent) when compared with the previous year - driven by a NZ$672 million (25 percent) increase in Auckland.

The non-residential building types with most growth in the year ended March 2019 (compared with the March 2018 year) were: shops, restaurants, and bars (shops) - up NZ$337 million (41 percent) nationally; hotels, motels, boarding houses, and prisons (accommodation) - up NZ$248 million (40 percent) nationally; and storage buildings - up NZ$199 million (26 percent) nationally.


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IFX Yvonne
06-10-2019, 06:54 AM
Ireland Construction Activity Growth Slows In May

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Ireland's construction activity growth eased to the lowest in four months in May, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Monday.

The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 54.9 in May from 56.6 in April. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

The housing sub-category rose at the fastest pace in three monitored sub-sectors for the fifth straight month in May. The corresponding PMI slid slightly to 58.3 from 60.5 a month ago.

Commercial activity increased at the slowest pace since August 2013. The commercial activity index came in 53.1 versus 54.6 in the previous month.

Civil engineering activity fell for the ninth month in a row. The civil engineering activity PMI dropped to 46.3 from 46.4 in April.

"New business and employment levels continued to rise at healthy rates in May, albeit in line with overall trends, both indices eased last month," Simon Barry, chief economist Republic of Ireland at Ulster Bank, said.

"Survey respondents remain optimistic about the sector's prospects over the year ahead, with expectations of stronger customer demand cited as an important source of support."

IFX Gertrude
06-11-2019, 04:53 AM
European Economics Preview: UK Labor Market Data Due

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Unemployment from the UK and investor confidence from euro area are due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway publishes consumer price data. Economists forecast inflation to remain unchanged at 2.9 percent in May.

At 2.30 am ET, Bank of France business sentiment survey data is due. The business confidence index is forecast to rise slightly to 100 in May from 99 in April.

Half an hour later, the Czech inflation data is due. Inflation is expected to slow slightly to 2.7 percent in May from 2.8 percent in April.

At 4.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK unemployment data. The ILO jobless rate is seen unchanged at 3.8 percent in three months to April.

In the meantime, Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data is due. Economists forecast the investor sentiment index to drop to 2.5 in June from 5.3 in May.

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IFX Gertrude
06-13-2019, 04:43 AM
Australia Jobless Rate Steady At 5.2% In May

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The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - unchanged from the April reading but missing forecasts for 5.1 percent.

The Australian economy added 42,300 jobs last month - blowing past expectations for an increase of 16,000 following the increase of 28,400 in the previous month.

The participation rate was 66.0 percent, surpassing forecasts for 65.8 percent and up from the upwardly 65.9 percent a month earlier (originally 65.8 percent).

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IFX Gertrude
06-14-2019, 05:08 AM
New Zealand Manufacturing Growth Near Stagnation

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New Zealand manufacturing sector was close to stagnation in May, the latest BNZ survey showed Friday.

The BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index fell 2.5 points to 50.2 in May. This was the lowest score since December 2012.

The production sub-index declined to 46.4 in May from 50.1 a month ago. This was the lowest since April 2012. A score below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

As a growth risk indicator it may not be flashing bright red just yet, but it is moving in that direction in taking on a darker shade of amber, Doug Steel, a senior economist at BNZ Research said.

The PMI sends a warning signal for near term growth via its mix of falling production, near flat new orders, and rising inventory, Steel added. Next week's first quarter GDP should be reasonable, but beyond this downside risks are accumulating.

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IFX Gertrude
06-17-2019, 04:54 AM
BCC Trims UK Growth Outlook

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The British Chambers of Commerce downgraded its growth outlook for next year as unwinding of historically-high inventory levels amid weak business investment weigh on economic activity.

In the latest economic forecast, released Monday, the growth projection for 2020 was lowered to 1 percent from 1.3 percent and that for 2021 to 1.2 percent from 1.4 percent.

However, the growth outlook for 2019 was lifted marginally to 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent, citing the exceptionally rapid stock-building ahead of the original Brexit deadline in March.

Gross domestic product was forecast to remain flat in the second quarter of 2019 after expanding 0.5 percent in the first quarter.

Over the near-term, the lobby expect that the ongoing Brexit impasse, together with the high upfront cost of doing business in the UK and the running down of excess stock to suffocate investment activity.

Business investment was expected to decline 1.3 percent this year versus prior forecast of 1 percent drop. Further, the lobby projected 0.4 percent growth next year, before improving to 1.1 percent in 2021.

Further, trade was set to make a negative contribution as exchange rate volatility, Brexit uncertainty and a subdued global economy, weaken trading conditions for British exporters.

Export growth was seen at 1.6 percent this year and next and 1.7 percent in 2021, compared to import growth of 4.3 percent in 2019, 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2.2 percent in 2021.

Nonetheless, consumer spending was forecast to remain resilient on low unemployment and earnings growth to stay above inflation. Household consumption growth outlook was lifted to 1.4 percent for 2019 and to 1.4 percent in 2020.

The forecast was based on the assumption that the UK avoids a messy and disorderly Brexit.

"Businesses are putting resources into contingency plans, such as stockpiling, rather than investing in ventures that would positively contribute to long-term economic growth," Adam Marshall, Director General of the BCC, said. "This is simply not sustainable."

Business communities expect the next Prime Minister to quickly find a sensible and pragmatic way forward to avoid a messy and disorderly Brexit, Marshall added.

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IFX Gertrude
06-18-2019, 04:22 AM
New Zealand Consumer Confidence Drops In Q

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New Zealand's consumer sentiment weakened slightly in the second quarter as households remained downbeat about the economic backdrop, survey data from Westpac showed Tuesday.

The Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index dropped 0.3 points to 103.5 in June.

Among sub-components, the indicator for present situation fell to 106.6 from 107.6 a quarter ago. Meanwhile, the expected conditions index rose marginally to 101.4 from 101.3.

The index measuring current financial situation improved to -4.7 in the second quarter from -8.3. Likewise, the expected financial situation indicator climbed to -3.2 from -6.5.

The 1-year ahead economic outlook rose slightly to -4.6 from -5.1. At the same time, the 5-year economic outlook dropped to 11.9 from 15.4 in the previous quarter.

The 'good time to buy' index declined to 17.9 in the second quarter from 23.4 in the preceding period.

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IFX Gertrude
06-19-2019, 04:53 AM
Japan May Trade Deficit Y967.1 Billion

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Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 967.1 billion yen in May, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday - up 67.5 percent on year.

That exceeded expectations for a shortfall of 1,207.0 billion yen following the 110.9 billion yen deficit in April.

Exports were down 7.8 percent on year to 5.835 trillion yen, also beating forecasts for a drop of 8.4 percent following the 2.4 percent decline in the previous month.

Exports to Asia were down 12.1 percent on year to 3.120 trillion yen, while exports to China alone fell 9.7 percent to 1.148 trillion yen.

Exports to the United States rose an annual 3.3 percent, while exports to the European Union sank 7.1 percent to 647.475 billion yen.

Imports sank an annual 1.5 percent to 6.802 trillion yen versus expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent after soaring 6.5 percent a month earlier.

Imports from Asia fell 3.3 percent on year to 3.100 trillion yen, while imports from China alone eased 0.9 percent to 1.540 trillion yen.

Imports from the United States dipped an annual 1.6 percent to 792.795 billion yen, while imports from the European Union climbed 8.7 percent to 898.979 billion yen.

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IFX Gertrude
06-20-2019, 04:07 AM
New Zealand GDP Expands 0.6% On Quarter In Q1

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New Zealand's gross domestic product grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday - matching forecasts and unchanged from the previous quarter.

On an annualized yearly basis, GDP was up 2.5 percent - exceeding forecasts for an increase of 2.3 percent, which would have been unchanged.

Activity in the goods-producing industries rose 2.0 percent in the March 2019 quarter. The growth was mainly driven by increased activity in the construction industry (up 3.7 percent), its largest increase since the September 2017 quarter. The rise in construction was reflected in investment in non-residential building (up 9.9 percent) and residential buildings (up 2.7 percent).

Manufacturing activity rose 1.4 percent in the March 2019 quarter, after a 0.4 percent decline in the December 2018 quarter. Increased food, beverage, and tobacco manufacturing contributed strongly to the rise this quarter. There were also increases in metal product manufacturing; non-metallic mineral manufacturing; and petroleum, chemical, polymer, and rubber product manufacturing.

Activity in the service industries rose 0.2 percent in the March 2019 quarter, the slowest growth rate since the September 2012 quarter. Of the 11 service industries, seven recorded growth.

The main drivers of this quarter's growth were health care and social assistance (up 1.7 percent) and transport, postal, and warehousing (up 1.2 percent). Retail, accommodation, and restaurants fell 0.5 percent. Lower activity in accommodation and restaurants reflected a dip in visitor arrivals to New Zealand in February and March.

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing production fell 2.3 percent in the March 2019 quarter, after a 0.3 percent fall in the December 2018 quarter. The fall in the latest quarter was due to unfavorable weather conditions. Agriculture (down 2.3 percent), forestry and logging (down 1.2 percent), and fishing (down 0.4 percent) all declined. This was offset by a rise in mining (up 9.6 percent), due to higher exploration activity along with an increase in oil and gas extraction.

Household spending grew 0.5 percent in the March 2019 quarter, after a 1.0 percent rise in the December 2018 quarter. Growth was subdued this quarter due to lower spending on services (up 0.3 percent). This was the weakest growth in services expenditure since the December 2014 quarter. Spending on durable and non-durable goods increased 1.4 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Investment in fixed assets was up 2.4 percent in the March 2019 quarter. Higher construction activity was reflected in higher construction-related investment expenditure. Business investment (all investment less residential buildings) rose 1.9 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
06-21-2019, 06:51 AM
European Economics Preview: Eurozone Flash PMI Data Due

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Flash Purchasing Managers' survey from euro area and public sector finance from the UK are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit releases France's flash composite PMI data. Economists forecast the index to rise marginally to 51.3 in June from 51.2 in May. At 3.30 am ET, Germany's composite PMI data is due. The composite index is seen at 52.5 in June versus 52.6 a month ago.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is slated to release PMI survey results for euro area. The composite PMI is forecast to rise to 52.0 in June from 51.8 in May.

In the meantime, industrial output and producer price reports are due from Poland. Industrial production is seen rising 7.5 percent annually in May, following a 9.2 percent rise in April. Producer price inflation is expected to ease to 1.6 percent in May from 2.6 percent a month ago.

At 4.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK public sector finance data. The budget deficit is expected to narrow to GBP 4.1 billion in May from GBP 5.8 billion in April.

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IFX Gertrude
06-24-2019, 04:21 AM
European Economics Preview: Germany Ifo Business Confidence Data Due

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Business sentiment data from Germany is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 1.00 am ET, Statistics Finland releases producer prices for May. Prices had increased 0.1 percent on month in April.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech business confidence survey data is due for June. The business sentiment index had fallen to 12.7 in May from 15.1 in April.

At 4.00 am ET, Germany's Ifo business sentiment survey results are due. Economists forecast the business confidence index to fall to 97.5 in June from 97.9 in May.

The ifo current conditions index is seen at 100.8 versus 100.6 in May. Meanwhile, the expectations index is forecast to fall to 95.1 in June from 95.3 in May.

In the meantime, retail sales data from Poland is due. Sales are forecast to expand 8.5 percent annually, following a 13.6 percent rise in April.

At 5.00 am ET, Statistics Iceland is scheduled to issue monthly wage data for May.

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IFX Gertrude
06-25-2019, 04:25 AM
Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.8% On Year In May

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Business sentiment data from Germany is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

Producer prices in Japan were up 0.8 percent on year in May, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent and down from the upwardly revised 1.0 percent gain in April (originally 0.9 percent).

On a monthly basis, producer prices dipped 0.3 percent after easing 0.1 percent in the previous month.

Individually, prices were down for communications, transportation, advertising and maintenance, while prices were up for real estate. Finance was roughly flat.

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IFX Gertrude
06-26-2019, 05:01 AM
European Economics Preview: Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment Data Due

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Consumer confidence from Germany is due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Germany's GfK consumer confidence survey results are due. The forward-looking consumer confidence index is seen falling slightly to 10.0 in July from 10.1 in June.

In the meantime, Norway labor force survey data is due. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 3.5 percent in April.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office Insee publishes consumer confidence survey data. The index is expected to rise marginally to 100 in June from 99 in May.

At 4.00 am ET, unemployment data is due from Poland. The jobless rate is expected to fall to 5.4 percent in May from 5.6 percent in April.

At 5.00 am ET, Statistics Iceland releases consumer price inflation data for June.

At 5.15 am ET, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, policymakers Jon Cunliffe, Silvana Tenreyro and Michael Saunders are set to answer questions at the Treasury Select Committee.

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IFX Gertrude
06-27-2019, 02:41 AM
Japan Retail Sales Rise 0.3% In May

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Retail sales in Japan were up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in May, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Thursday - shy of expectations for a gain of 0.6 percent following the downwardly revised 0.1 percent drop in April (originally flat).

On a yearly basis, retail sales were up 1.2 percent - in line with expectations and up from the downwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in the previous month (originally 0.5 percent).

Large retailer sales were down 0.5 percent on year, missing forecasts for a gain of 0.2 percent following the 1.8 percent drop a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
06-28-2019, 04:45 AM
New Zealand Consumer Sentiment Strengthens In June

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New Zealand consumer confidence strengthened in June after falling a month ago, survey data from ANZ-Roy Morgan showed on Friday.

The consumer confidence index rose to 122.6 in June from 119.3 in May. The score rose to a bit above its historical average.

The current conditions index rose 2 points to 128, and the future conditions index gained 4 points to 119.

Consumers' perceptions of their current financial situation lifted 5 points to a net 15 percent assessing financially better off than a year ago. A net 29 percent of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, which was up 6 points. However, the proportion of households who think it's a good time to buy a major household item fell 3 points to 40 percent.

Perceptions regarding the next year's economic outlook lifted 5 points to 12 percent and the five-year outlook rose 2 points to +16 percent. Inflation expectations among consumers advanced to 4.0 percent in June from 3.6 percent in May.

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IFX Gertrude
07-02-2019, 12:53 AM
Japan Monetary Base Jumps 4.0% In June

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The monetary base in Japan was up 4.0 percent on year in June, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - coming in at 512.991 trillion yen.

That follows the 3.6 percent increase in May.

Banknotes in circulation were up an annual 3.1 percent, while coins in circulation advanced 2.3 percent. Current account balances climbed 4.2 percent, including a 3.8 percent increase in reserve balances.

The adjusted monetary base jumped an annual 7.2 percent to 510.159 trillion yen.

For the second quarter of 2019, the monetary base was up 3.6 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
07-03-2019, 05:36 AM
China's Private Sector Expands Marginally In June

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China's private sector expanded marginally in June despite contraction in manufacturing, survey data from IHS Markit showed Wednesday.

The Caixin composite output index fell to 50.6 in June from 51.5 in May. However, a score above 50 indicates expansion. The reading signaled the weakest growth since last October.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index dropped more-than-expected to 52.0 in June from 52.7 in the previous month. The expected reading was 52.6.

"The conflict between China and the U.S. impacted business confidence rather heavily," Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group said. "Although its impact on exports hasn't been fully reflected in the short-run, the longerterm situation doesn't look optimistic. Future government policies to stabilize economic growth are likely to focus on new types of infrastructure, consumption and high-quality manufacturing."

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IFX Gertrude
07-04-2019, 03:48 AM
The pressure of easy politics is too heavy; Swedish krona as an exception

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More and more currencies fall under the pressure of the "dovish" tone of the world central banks, although the Swedish krona stands out against this background, having strengthened to a 2.5 month high against the euro after the local central bank announced that it plans to tighten the policy by early 2020. However, the focus remains on another currency - the pound - which fell on Tuesday along with the yields of British government bonds. The yield on 10-year securities fell below the main discount rate of the Bank of England for the first time since the 2008 crisis, after the markets interpreted the comments of the Bank of England CEO Mark Carney as dovish. The sterling lost 0.2%, updating its two-week low.

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"The two main driving forces today are the yen, which is considered a safe haven, and it has returned to growth, and the pound, which continues to decline," said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho. The yen rose by 0.23% against the dollar and is trading at 107.6 yen, as investors are more skeptical about the possibility of an early end to the trade war, especially given the comments of US President Donald Trump that any transaction should be in favor of the US. Currencies will continue to contain signs that more and more central banks are adjusting to easing monetary policy in order to combat a slowdown in economic growth. The dovish tone of central banks reduces profitability across the board.

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The latest figures show that weakness in the manufacturing sector is beginning to spread to the service sector, it is alarming, and it gives the green light to central banks to soften policies. And so far only the Swedish central bank has adhered to a policy of tightening policy by the end of this year or the beginning of next year amid steady inflation and good economic prospects. The Swedish krona has updated a 2.5-month high against the euro and is growing against the dollar.

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IFX Gertrude
07-05-2019, 03:52 AM
Philippines Inflation Lowest Since 2017

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Philippines inflation reached its lowest level in nearly two years in June, the Philippine Statistics Authority showed Friday.

Consumer price inflation eased to 2.7 percent from 3.2 percent in May. In the same period last year, the rate was 5.2 percent. Inflation was forecast to slow moderately to 2.8 percent.

The June inflation was the weakest since September 2017.

Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation came in at 3.3 percent in June versus 3.5 percent a month ago.

Food prices advanced at a slower pace of 2.6 percent annually and education cost declined 4.5 percent. Meanwhile, higher rate were registered in the indices of health, recreation and culture, by 3.7 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

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IFX Gertrude
07-08-2019, 04:44 AM
China's Forex Reserves Increase In June

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China's foreign exchange reserves increased marginally in June, data from the People's Bank of China showed on Monday.

Foreign exchange reserves rose by $18.2 billion to $3.119 trillion at the end of June from $3.101 trillion at the end of May. The forex reserves stayed slightly above the expected level of $3.110 trillion.

The increase was driven by currency conversion rates and higher international financial asset prices in June, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said after the central bank released data.

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IFX Gertrude
07-09-2019, 04:36 AM
Japan M2 Money Stock Rises 2.3% On Year In June

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The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.3 percent on year in June, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - coming in at 1,029.6 trillion yen.

That was shy of expectations for a gain of 2.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the May reading following a downward revision from 2.7 percent.

The M3 money stock was up an annual 2.0 percent to 1,362.4 trillion yen - again missing forecasts for 2.3 percent, which also would have been unchanged from the previous month.

The L money stock gained an annual 1.7 percent to 1,807.7 trillion yen, slowing from 1.8 percent a month earlier.

For the second quarter of 2019, M2 was up 2.5 percent on year, M3 rose 2.1 percent and L was up 1.8 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
07-10-2019, 04:12 AM
China CPI Steady At 2.7% On Year In June

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Consumer prices in China were up 2.7 percent on year in June, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - in line with expectations and unchanged from the May reading.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were down 0.1 percent following the flat reading a month earlier.

The bureau also said that producer prices were flat on year in June. That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent and down from 0.6 percent in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
07-11-2019, 02:22 AM
The market is waiting for gold at $1500

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Gold is now trading near a six-year peak of $1,439 a week ago. A return to $1,400 is unlikely to be a problem, investors are most interested in whether quotes will manage to get to their favorite level of $1,500 and move on. This, in particular, will depend on what the Fed's main figures will say this week. It all starts with Jerome Powell's two-day speech.

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Market participants have reduced their appetite for the pace of rate hikes in the United States after the release of strong data on employment, but still believe in a symbolic easing policy. In Powell's words, they will scrupulously look for hints of the prospects for lower rates this month.

The publication of the minutes of the June Fed meeting is significant for gold traders. This document will help them better understand why the officials then decided to postpone the rate cut.

In June, officials removed the word "patience" from their statement, and Powell recently used the phrase "prevention is better than treatment". This suggests that the US central bank is leaning toward preventive policy easing in order to avoid a possible slowdown in the economy.

Judging by the past meetings, the US regulator is known for its discretion. Therefore, it may not postpone the rate cut by 25 bp, which the market relies on so much to follow the situation in the country's economy. It is worth noting that there are traders expecting a decline of 50 bp, but such units.

This week, there will be a whole group of Fed officials and the most interesting one for investors will be the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard. At the June meeting, he was the only one who did not agree with the decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Bullard compared with other members of the Fed committee holds the most dovish stance.

Analyst opinions on gold

Gold will reach $1,500 and move higher, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. However, strategists are worried about short-term risks. "The market overestimated the likelihood that the US central bank will lower rates," and if policy easing is postponed, for example, "due to the constructive results of the G20 summit," this will cause a drop in precious metal prices.

The same opinion is shared by UBS. However, they are waiting, gold will end the current year below $1,400, the next one will be close to $1,450, and only then will investors see the coveted mark of $ 1,500.

The National Australia Bank raised its forecast for the price of the yellow metal in 2019 to $1,400 per ounce. Earlier it was about $ 1,380 per ounce.

"We are still expecting two reductions in the US Federal Reserve rates - in July and September. This will support the precious metal," analysts wrote.

Gold is expected to become more attractive in the event of a further decrease in the yield of G7 countries. The demand for precious metals will grow from both long-term investors and short-term speculators. The world's central banks will also show an increased interest in gold.

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IFX Gertrude
07-12-2019, 04:47 AM
What does Powell bring to the dollar?

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It seems that the head of the Fed finally convinced the market of a rate cut in the near future. Under the influence of the regulator's dovish mood, the dollar index fell from three-week highs, which it held in recent days. The "minutes" of the Fed were ignored by the market, although it followed that not all central bank officials were ready for policy easing.

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Traders preferred to listen to the words of Jerome Powell, who, in their opinion, gave a clear signal for aggressive policy easing. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, also played a role here, stating that a quarter-percent reduction in rates is necessary to keep the US economy from slowing down due to a trade war and amid steadily low inflation.

However, today the United States published a report according to which consumer prices in the country unexpectedly rose in June by 0.1%. Economists were counting zero dynamics of the indicator.

Powell is set to hold another speech on Thursday. It is unlikely that he will add something fundamentally new to what he said yesterday regarding the prospects for policy easing, but anything can happen. If, for example, he more accurately speaks about an immediate rate cut by 0.50%, then the dollar can repeat yesterday's scenario.

The EUR/USD pair will get every chance to go towards the 1.1400 mark. Under other circumstances, there is a risk that quotes would reverse dowards.

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The trigger to pull down the main pair could be the publication of the minutes from the ECB's June meeting. However, this did not happen, the euro did not pay attention to the fact that members of the ECB almost unanimously recognized the need to prepare for easing monetary policy in the region.

It seems that Forex is entering a new phase of currency wars. Traders perceive that the US central bank's reduction in rates is a preventive measure modeled on 1995 and 1998, when the regulator acted on the lead and saved the country from recession. The central bank also weakened the policy in 2001 and 2007, when the negative had already begun to show its first sprouts, but in fact everything turned into a recession. The desire to prevent a possible recession is commendable, but not only Fed officials are thinking about it. The European regulator is also ready to cut rates and revive the quantitative easing program. It is worth saying that, perhaps, there are more reasons for the ECB than the Fed. Take, for example, the worsening estimates of GDP and inflation for 2020 and statements by German politicians that the EU needs to seriously tune in to a trade war with the US.

The euro and the dollar are weak and their condition is supported by central banks. Thus, the EUR/USD pair will continue to stay within the consolidation range of 1.12-1.14 indicated at the beginning of July.

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IFX Gertrude
07-16-2019, 02:22 AM
The ECB and the Fed are going to cut rates, while the Bank of England is not yet ready for this, and this could support the pound

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The single European currency fails to demonstrate a steady upward trend, despite expectations that the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will cut interest rates for the first time in ten years.

Derivatives market expects the US central bank to lower the rate in July and September. This is a negative point for the dollar. Why then the euro can not benefit from this?

The fact is that the ECB also does not exclude the possibility of easing monetary policy to stimulate the European economy and inflation in the region.

UBS analysts believe that the regulator will lower the deposit rate twice before the end of this year.

"Most likely, this will happen in September and December, and each time the step size will be 10 basis points. In addition, the ECB may resort to QE, if the outlook for the economy and inflation in the eurozone worsens, downside risks associated with trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty materialize, or the Fed has a weaker monetary policy than expected. We think that at the meeting next week, the ECB will make adjustments to its statements of intent to prepare the markets for the coming changes," they noted.

Thus, it turns into a "vicious circle": both the American and European central banks want to cut rates and lower the rate of their currency. Who will lose: euro or dollar? It is possible that this week will be a draw and the next winner will be the greenback.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England, it seems, is not yet ready to lower interest rates. Moreover, some members of the BoE Monetary Policy Committee are considering the possibility of raising rates in the fall, if after Brexit there is a high increase in consumer prices.

According to a number of analysts, since the ECB and the Fed are setting investors to lower rates, the pound can show good growth in quotes.

"The pound is already trading at crisis levels and will resist further decline. High inflation expectations and inflation, which is close to the Bank of England target, should for the time being keep the central bank from deciding to soften the policy," say Nomura analysts.

"Great Britain's exit from the EU without a deal is a risk, and it will certainly lead to the formation of new lows in sterling, but this will happen only in a few months, and we don't expect the market to lay a high premium for a hard Brexit until Parliament returns to work in September after the summer break," they added.

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IFX Gertrude
07-17-2019, 03:52 AM
GBP/USD: the chances for a "soft" Brexit are rapidly decreasing, the pound has fallen to two-year lows

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TheGBP/USD pair slipped to the lowest level since 2017 (to the level of 1.2420).

Several factors are playing against the British currency at once: this is a high probability of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit, and a moderate economic growth in the country, and the fact that the monetary policy of the Bank of England can move to a more "soft" course.

On the eve of the two candidates for prime minister, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, stated that even substantial concessions on the part of the European Union on the regulation of the Irish border may not be enough to ratify the "divorce" agreement. This heightened concerns that the new British government's stance on Brexit would be more rigid, which could lead to the breakdown of the London-Brussels talks and the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU on October 31 without a deal.

According to analysts, the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair reflects the general mood of the market in relation to the pound.

In this regard, it is noteworthy that the British currency was unable to use even the positive statistics on the country's labor market today.

According to the National Statistical Office (ONS), the average salary (including premiums) increased by 3.4%, in March-May with an expected growth of 3.1%. At the same time, unemployment remained at the lowest from October-December 1974 - 3.8%.

The employment sector in the country remains one of the few that remains stable despite the constant stress caused by Brexit.

The futures market is already expecting a 50% chance of lowering interest rates by the Bank of England in 2019 due to the risk of Great Britain's chaotic exit from the EU, as the policy outweighed stronger than expected labor market data.

This month, the pound sterling hit a two-year low against the US dollar.

Analysts polled recently by Bloomberg report that the situation may worsen next month. Moreover, this is an established trend: the fall of the pound against the dollar in August has been noted over the past five years.

"In any case, we will have enough cause for concern in August, with the arrival of the new prime minister of Great Britain, as we are approaching October 31," the currency strategists of Royal Bank of Canada believe.

"Since the British Parliament has gone on summer vacation, the deadline for the UK's withdrawal from the EU is inexorably expiring," said MUFG analyst Lee Hardman.

ING Group believes that B. Johnson will become a leader who will not succeed in concluding a new agreement with Brussels. This will increase the likelihood that Great Britain will leave without a deal.

The main message of B. Johnson during the Brexit campaign was that this event would not have a negative impact on the British economy. However, the irony is that the ex-foreign minister may become the prime minister of the country just at the moment when the national economy will fully experience all the Brexit.

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IFX Gertrude
07-18-2019, 02:41 AM
The decrease in USD rates is decided, but what do they think on Wall Street

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The response of the market to the strong US retail sales was negligible; traders preferred to focus on the next comments of the Fed. Therefore, on Wednesday, the dollar was only able to fix the growth of the previous session just above the level of 97.

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Speaking in Paris, Jerome Powell intervened in market expectations again, hinting at the risks of lowering inflation expectations, which requires a more flexible policy adjustment from officials. At the same time, the Federal Reserve persists in ignoring traditional fundamental data, showing its concern with leading indicators. After Powell's speech on Tuesday, the odds of a 50 bps rate cut increased to 31%. At the same time, the head of the Central Bank was able to convince the market that the Central Bank would be able to stimulate inflation, since the market metrics of inflationary expectations turned into growth from the end of June.

Thus, pressure on the American economy comes from trade relations with partners. Inflation expectations declined after the announcement of an increase in tariffs for Chinese goods. Powell has pointed out on this for more than once. It cannot be ruled out that the reaction of inflation expectations to the bottom was a "foresight" of the new cycle of mitigation of policy in response to the escalation of tariff tension. In this case, the Central Bank is led, as it responds to a false signal and ignores strong economic reports.

Be that as it may, it is difficult to consider a reduction in the rate of half a percent at once as a reasonable precautionary measure. The labor market and retail volume are growing quite confidently.

Next week, the ECB is expected to give a strong stimulus signal, which will reduce the risks of a further slowdown in growth abroad. This is one of the reasons for the Fed's concerns, along with the trade war. Friday's report on US GDP may contain a positive surprise, at least there are prerequisites for this. In this scenario, traders are unlikely to sell dollars.

Estimates and expectations of the world's largest banks about the Fed rate cut

The Goldman Sachs are waiting for the reduction of 25 basis points in July and another by the same amount until the end of this year. A similar opinion is shared by experts JPMorgan.

Everyone understands that the Fed is set to soften the policy in July, they write. The situation in the world remains alarming, business sentiment continues to deteriorate, and deflation signals from a slowdown in producer price pressure put pressure on corporate profits. The combination of these factors has a negative effect on the increase in capital expenditures in the world.

Representatives of Morgan Stanley and UBS predict an aggressive policy easing - immediately by 50 basis points without an additional reduction before the end of the year. In their opinion, the current situation requires decisive action. Over the past 12 months, the global economy has noticeably slowed down, aided by trade conflicts. US GDP also risks slowing growth.

Citigroup, on the other hand, forecasts a quarter percent decline in July and the same in September. According to them, a decrease of 25 basis points is a kind of compromise on the committee. Although, it is possible that some officials will vote to reduce by 50 basis points.

There is a consensus in Bank of America and Barclays. Jerome Powell made it clear that at the next meeting, the rate will be reduced regardless of statistics, they comment. The cost of lending will decline by at least 0.25% in July and another 0.5% by the end of the year.

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IFX Gertrude
07-22-2019, 04:28 AM
CBI Urges Next UK PM To Act Fast To Get Economy Back On Track

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The next UK Prime Minister should restore confidence and take action to bring the economy back on track, the Confederation of British Industry said in its Business Manifesto published Monday. Carolyn Fairbairn, the CBI's Director General called for a clear direction for the UK and to build a long-term vision that drives in investment and back business as a foundation of a growing, inclusive economy.

Brexit has stalled progress on the UK economy for three years. A Brexit deal remains a top priority for business, but a broader vision is needed, the lobby noted.

"Early signals matter. The UK is a fantastic place to do business but we must be honest - the reputation of our country has taken a dent in recent times," Fairbairn said.

"Our new Prime Minister has a real chance to inject a new lease of life into the UK economy and show the world we are open for investment."

The manifesto also called for fast action to show world that the UK remains a trusted place to do business and to build a compelling economic vision for the UK of the future.

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IFX Gertrude
07-23-2019, 04:51 AM
BoJ Closely Examining Heightened Global Uncertainties, Says Kuroda

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The Bank of Japan is carefully monitoring heightened uncertainties regarding the global economy as some nervousness has been seen in global financial markets, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Tuesday.

"We will carefully examine various risk factors, in addition to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions, and weigh the benefits and costs of the policy effects," Kuroda said in a speech at the International Monetary Fund.

He said Japan's economy is no longer in deflation as the central bank continued its powerful monetary easing.

"The positive annual CPI inflation has taken hold, and the economy is no longer in deflation in the sense of a sustained decline in prices," Kuroda added.

Inflation is in the range of 0.5-1.0 percent. The banker reiterated that the BoJ will persistently continue with easing in order to maintain the momentum toward achieving 2 percent inflation target.

However, Kuroda said it is not easy to continue with such powerful quantitative and qualitative monetary easing for a long time.

Further, he said the bank adopted yield curve control in 2016, aiming to control both short-and long-term interest rates of bonds.

"In exerting monetary easing effects stably for a long time, the Bank judges that yield curve control is a better framework in terms of both controllability and sustainability," Kuroda added.

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IFX Gertrude
07-24-2019, 03:53 AM
Gold in anticipation of the Fed rate cut

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Surprisingly, but a fact: amid the strengthening greenback, gold renews its perennial highs.

Since 2013, the precious metal has been trading in the range of $1050-1385 per ounce, and only recently strengthened expectations regarding easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States allowed quotes to come out.

The main obstacle in the path of "bulls" on XAU/USD is traditionally considered to be a strong dollar, but even now its position does not seem to be hopeless. What then is the matter?

If in 2014-2018, the US currency showed growth due to the tightening of the monetary rate of the Fed, then at present it remains stable primarily due to the weakness of competitors.

The Fed is signaling its intention to carry out monetary expansion for preventive purposes. The Bank of England in front of the "hawk" turns into a "dove". The ECB is also ready to ease monetary policy.

In conditions when it is difficult to find a strong currency, investors switch to other assets.

Promotions?

The historical highs of the S&P 500 index are undoubtedly impressive, but the higher it grows, the stronger the impression that this is a "bubble". The only driver of the rally is investor confidence in aggressively lowering the Fed rate. If the US central bank does not go in the wake of the market, the fall of the S&P 500 will be guaranteed. Bonds?

Under normal conditions, bonds act as an alternative to gold and take advantage of it in the form of interest income. However, when the volume of negative-yield bonds traded on the global market increases by leaps and bounds, and currently exceeds $13 trillion, investors start looking at the yellow precious metal in a completely different way. Buying gold seems to be the best choice for them. In fact, which is preferable: not having interest income or paying extra for the fact that you own bonds?

Is it any wonder, then, that in the conditions of only a formally strong dollar, the increasing risks of lowering the S&P 500 and the growing number of traded bonds with negative yields, investors prefer gold? Gold ETF reserves have already exceeded 74 million ounces - less than 18 million below the record high of 92 million ounces recorded in 2011.

"The vector of the monetary policy of key central banks seems to have changed, so we are optimistic about the prospects for the yellow precious metal," said experts from Citigroup. "

We expect the Fed to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points at the July meeting. At the same time, we do not exclude that the regulator can reduce it immediately by 50 basis points. The beginning of the decline in interest rates in the United States will be a positive event for the bulls on gold," they added.

According to Citigroup's forecast, in the third quarter the price of gold will average $1,425 per ounce, and in the fourth quarter - $1,450.

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IFX Gertrude
07-25-2019, 02:40 AM
Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.7% On Year In June

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.7 percent on year in June, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday - shy of expectations for 0.8 percent and down from the upwardly revised 0.9 percent gain in May (originally 0.8 percent).

On a monthly basis, producer prices eased 0.1 percent after sliding 0.2 percent in the previous month.

Individually, prices were up for transportation, real estate, advertising and leasing. Prices were steady at financial services and down for communication and information services.

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IFX Gertrude
07-26-2019, 04:32 AM
JPMorgan predicts the decline of the dollar era

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The position of the greenback in the foreseeable future may falter, and it even runs the risk of losing the status of the main global reserve currency, analysts at JPMorgan Chase warn.

"The dollar has been the main global reserve currency for almost 100 years. During this time, many investors, including those outside the United States, have become accustomed to the fact that dollar assets occupy a "higher than market" share in their portfolios. However, we believe that the US currency may lose its unique status due to structural and cyclical reasons, which will lead to a decline in its rate," representatives of the financial institute said.

"After the end of World War II, the United States became the largest global economy, accounting for a quarter of global GDP. If we add the countries of Western Europe, then this value will increase to 40%. Since then, fast-growing Asia, in the heart of which China is located, has consistently won back the share of the world market from the West, "they added.

According to experts, as the Asian region develops, the share of transactions in currencies other than the dollar will inevitably grow.

"In addition, the current US administration has questioned agreements with all major US trading partners - from Mexico and Canada to China and the EU, and also left the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Such unfriendly actions on the part of Washington can induce these states to reduce the share of the dollar in trade calculations," noted JPMorgan experts.

They believe that the permanent fiscal and trade deficits of the United States can trigger a decline in the dollar against a basket of currencies and gold, and advise investors to diversify their portfolios so that they prefer other currencies in developed markets and in Asia, as well as precious metals.

However, according to analysts, selling the dollar immediately is also not worth it, because shifts in preferences in financial markets take a very long time, so those who are counting on a quick weakening of the US currency should have extraordinary patience.

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IFX Yvonne
07-29-2019, 06:38 AM
UK Private Sector Activity Continues To Contract: CBI

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The UK private sector activity continued to fall in three months to July but at a slightly slower pace, the monthly growth indicator from the Confederation of British Industry showed Sunday.

The balance of firms posting growth came in at -9 percent. This was the ninth straight rolling quarter of either flat or falling volumes.

Services activity logged a slower decline amid a marked decrease in both distribution and manufacturing volumes.

Nonetheless, private sector growth is forecast to pick up, with a balance of 9 percent expecting an improvement in the three months to October.

The growth indicator suggested a subdued start to the third quarter, following other recent data which indicated economic growth slowed noticeably in the second quarter of 2019.

"A new Prime Minister marks a fresh start and early signals matter," Annie Gascoyne, CBI director of economic policy, said. "Business is looking for a Brexit deal that unlocks confidence; clear signals the UK remains open to the world; and a willingness to work together with business on issues ranging from climate change to digital connectivity."

IFX Gertrude
07-30-2019, 02:45 AM
Japan Industrial Production Slides 3.6% In June

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Industrial output in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 3.6 percent on month in June, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tuesday's preliminary reading.

That missed forecasts for a decline of 1.8 percent following the 2.0 percent gain in May.

On a yearly basis, industrial production sank 4.1 percent - again missing expectations for a drop of 2.0 percent after sliding 2.1 percent in the previous month.

Upon the release of the data, the METI maintained its assessment of industrial production, saying that it continues to fluctuate indecisively.

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IFX Yvonne
07-31-2019, 07:02 AM
European Economics Preview: Eurozone GDP Data Due

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Quarterly national accounts, flash inflation and unemployment figures from the euro area are due on Wednesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Nationwide Building Society is slated to issue UK house price data for July. Economists forecast house prices to rise 0.1 percent annually after climbing 0.5 percent in June.

In the meantime, retail sales and unemployment reports are due from Germany. Economists forecast retail sales to grow 0.6 percent on year in June, slower than the 4 percent increase in May.

At 2.45 am ET, France's Insee releases flash inflation data for July. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 1.2 percent.

At 3.00 am ET, GDP from Spain and foreign trade from Turkey are due.

At 3.55 am ET, the Federal Labor Agency is scheduled to issue Germany's unemployment figures. The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 5 percent in July.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's unemployment figures are due. The jobless rate is expected to rise slightly to 10 percent in June from 9.9 percent in May.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat publishes Eurozone GDP, inflation and unemployment figures for the second quarter. The economy is forecast to grow 0.2 percent on quarter, slower than the 0.4 percent expansion in the first quarter.

Flash inflation is expected to ease slightly to 1.1 percent in July from 1.2 percent in June. Economists forecast euro area jobless rate to remain unchanged at 7.5 percent in June.

At 6.00 am ET, Italy's Istat releases GDP data for the second quarter. GDP is expected to drop 0.1 percent on quarter, reversing a 0.1 percent rise in the first quarter.

IFX Gertrude
08-01-2019, 02:56 AM
Philippines Manufacturing Sector Picks Up Steam In July - Market

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The manufacturing sector in the Philippines continued to expand in July, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from Markit Economics revealed on Thursday with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.1.

That's up from 51.3 in June, and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, new order growth was at its strongest in six months, while employment rose for the first time since February.

Output price inflation was at a two-year low.

With output and sales growth remaining strong, businesses remained optimistic regarding future activity.

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IFX Gertrude
08-02-2019, 04:39 AM
European Economics Preview: Eurozone Retail Sales Data Due

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Retail sales and producer prices from Eurozone are due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.30 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is scheduled to issue Swiss inflation figures. Inflation is seen easing to 0.5 percent in July from 0.6 percent in June.

At 3.00 am ET, retail sales data is due from Hungary. Economists expect sales to grow 6 percent on year in June, after rising 2.6 percent in May.

At 4.00 am ET, Italy's Istat publishes industrial production data for June. Economists forecast output to drop 0.3 percent on month, in contrast to a 0.9 percent rise in May.

At 4.30 am ET, IHS Markit releases UK construction Purchasing Managers' survey data for July. The construction PMI is forecast to rise to 46.0 in July from 43.1 in June.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat releases euro area retail sales and producer price data. Sales are forecast to grow 0.2 percent on month in June, reversing a 0.3 percent drop in May.

Economists expect producer prices to climb 0.8 percent annually in June after rising 1.6 percent a month ago.

In the meantime, Italy's retail sales data is due for June. Sales had decreased 0.7 percent on month in May.

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IFX Gertrude
08-05-2019, 05:04 AM
Australia's Service Sector Growth Moderates In July

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Australia's service sector growth momentum slowed at the start of the third quarter driven by a weakening trend in new business inflows, data from IHS Markit showed Monday.

The Commonwealth Bank of services business activity index fell to 52.3 in July from 52.6 in June.

The overall sales growth moderated in July as domestic demand conditions softened despite a solid increase in new export business. Further, service related jobs fell at the steepest pace in the series history.

On the price front, data showed that input price inflation was the fastest for nine months driven by greater energy costs. Meanwhile, output price inflation remained moderate in July.

Service providers remained upbeat about longer-term prospects as sentiment towards the year-ahead outlook stayed in positive territory. Reflecting softer expansions in manufacturing and services, the composite output index declined to 52.1 in July from 52.5 in June.

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IFX Gertrude
08-06-2019, 02:47 AM
Australia Has A$8.036 Billion Trade Surplus In June

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Australia posted a merchandise trade surplus of A$8.036 billion in June, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That beat expectations for a surplus of A$6.0 billion and was up from the upwardly revised A$6.173 billion surplus in May (originally A$5.745 billion).

Exports rose A$576 million (1 percent) to A$42,378 million. Non-rural goods rose A$758 million (3 percent). Rural goods fell A$170 million (4 percent) and non-monetary gold fell A$37 million (2 percent). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at A$18 million. Services credits rose A$26 million.

Imports fell A$1,287 million (4 percent) to A$34,342 million. Capital goods fell A$600 million (9 percent), consumption goods fell A$450 million (5 percent) and intermediate and other merchandise goods fell A$366 million (3 percent). Non-monetary gold rose A$132 million (28 percent). Services debits fell A$2 million.

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IFX Gertrude
08-07-2019, 04:20 AM
The greenback receives a "black mark" from Trump

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Last week, the United States announced the introduction of new tariffs on Chinese imports, in response to which China has allowed its national currency to fall to record lows.

Washington's reaction was not slow. The US administration has officially recognized China as a currency manipulator.

"The goal of China's devaluation of the national currency is to gain an unfair competitive advantage in international trade," the US Treasury said.

China has rejected all the accusations against it.

"This stigma is completely inconsistent with the criteria set by the US Treasury for countries engaged in manipulating the exchange rate. Action from the United States is a one-sided and protectionist act that seriously violates international standards. This will have a serious impact on the global economy," according to a statement from the People's Bank of China.

According to analysts, the decision of the US Ministry of Finance to classify China as currency manipulators could lead to the outbreak of a currency war between the two countries.

"The implications of China's recognition of the currency manipulator could be colossal. The United States may use this decision as a pretext for introducing additional unilateral prohibitive duties. This will lead to the closure of all imports from China, " warns professor of Cornell University Esvar Prasad.

It is assumed that if Donald Trump feels that the US economy will slow down against the backdrop of current events, the possibility of conducting currency interventions with the aim of weakening the dollar will again be on the agenda.

Serious pressure on the greenback is currently being exerted by recent expectations that the Fed will aggressively weaken monetary policy.

The probability of a federal funds rate cut by 25 basis points at the September meeting is now estimated at more than 75%. It is noteworthy that a week ago the chances of an additional round of rate cuts were only 60%.

"The US central bank seems to be held hostage by markets for which the expectation of cheap money is the only argument in favor of growth," Raiffeisenbank analysts said.

"There is another important factor - the pressure from the US president, who desperately needs economic growth to be re-elected for a second term and who has been raining tweets on the Fed for more than a year, calling the leadership of the US central bank incompetent and demanding a weaker dollar to win the trade war with China," said MUFG economist Chris Rupkey.

Citigroup believes that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in an attempt to smooth out the impact of the global GDP slowdown on the US economy, the monetary policy created by protectionism will not solve the problems.

According to Judy Shelton, who was recently nominated by D. Trump as an official of the FOMC, monetary stimulation is more effective for manipulating currencies than for accelerating economic growth. This is again an argument in favor of the fact that by increasing tariffs on Chinese imports, the owner of the White House provokes an escalation of not only trade, but also currency war.

Apparently, the head of the US administration decided to raise rates at the same time both in discussions with the Federal Reserve and with Beijing.

However, for strong EUR/USD growth, just wanting to weaken the greenback is clearly not enough, and buying the euro should be considered only in the event of breaking resistance at 1.133 and 1.137, while a return to support at 1.1175 and 1.112 will create the prerequisites for opening shorts.


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IFX Gertrude
08-08-2019, 04:31 AM
European Economics Preview: France Business Confidence Data Due

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Business confidence from France is due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway releases industrial output data for June. Economists forecast production to grow 0.3 percent on month, the same rate as seen in May.

At 2.30 am ET, Bank of France is scheduled to issue business sentiment survey results. The confidence index is forecast to rise to 96 in July from 95 in June. The survey also shows GDP estimate.

At 3.00 am ET, consumer prices and foreign trade figures are due from Hungary. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4 percent in July.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is slated to issue monthly economic bulletin.

At 5.00 am ET, consumer prices and labor force survey results are due from Greece.

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IFX Yvonne
08-09-2019, 05:01 AM
European Economics Preview: UK GDP Data Due

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Quarterly national accounts from the UK and foreign trade from Germany are due on Friday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 1.45 am ET, the Swiss jobless data is due from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.3 percent in July.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's foreign trade data. Exports are forecast to drop 0.1 percent on month in June, in contrast to a 1.1 percent rise in May.

In the meantime, consumer and producer prices are due from Norway. Consumer price inflation is expected to ease marginally to 1.8 percent in July from 1.9 percent in June.

At 2.45 am ET, France's Insee publishes manufacturing output figures for June. Economists expect manufacturing output to fall 1.3 percent on month in June, after rising 1.6 percent in May.

At 4.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK GDP, industrial production and foreign trade data. The economy is forecast to remain flat on quarter in the second quarter, after expanding 0.5 percent in the preceding period.

IFX Gertrude
08-13-2019, 04:59 AM
Australia NAB Business Conditions Weaken; Sentiment Improves

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Australia's business conditions weakened in July reflecting the decrease across most industries, while confidence edged higher, survey data from the National Australia Bank showed Tuesday.

The business conditions index fell 2 points to +2 in July driven by a decline in the employment sub-indicator.

Meanwhile, the business confidence index rose to +4 from +2 a month ago, driven by an improvement across industries. Sentiment remained highest in mining.

The NAB said the business sector has lost significant momentum since early 2018 and forward looking indicators do not point to an improvement in the near term. The lift in confidence following the election appears to have faded with little impact on actual conditions.

According to NAB, both the cut to interest rates and boost to tax rebates is yet to feed into the business sector and that the weakness in the second quarter has persisted into the third quarter.

"With a significant loss of momentum in activity, and inflation indicators remaining weak, the survey points to the need to the need for further stimulus in the economy," Alan Oster, NAB Group chief economist, said.

"Indeed, we expect a further easing in interest rates from the RBA and think that some greater fiscal support will be needed from the government to kickstart growth," Oster added.

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IFX Gertrude
08-14-2019, 04:09 AM
China's Industrial Output, Retail Sales Growth Slows

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China's industrial production and retail sales grew at weaker pace in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.

Industrial output growth eased to 4.8 percent in July from 6.3 percent in June. Output was forecast to expand 6 percent.

Likewise, growth in retail sales slowed to 7.6 percent from 9.8 percent a month ago. This was the weakest growth in three months. The expected pace of growth was 8.6 percent.

During January to July period, fixed asset investment logged an annual growth of 5.7 percent compared to 5.8 percent increase in January to June. The rate was forecast to remain unchanged at 5.8 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
08-15-2019, 02:33 AM
Australia Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 5.2% In July

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The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5,2 percent in July, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - unchanged from the previous month and in line with expectations.

The Australian economy added 41,100 jobs last month, far surpassing expectations for a gain of 14,000 jobs following the increase of 500 jobs in June.

The participation rate was 66.1 percent, exceeding estimates for 66.0 - which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

Unemployment increased 800 to 712,900 persons.

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IFX Yvonne
08-16-2019, 05:56 AM
Malaysia's Growth Accelerates In Q2

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Malaysia's economic growth accelerated in the second quarter on domestic demand, data from the Bank Negara Malaysia showed Friday.

Gross domestic product grew 4.9 percent year-on-year, faster than the 4.5 percent expansion seen in the first quarter. The rate was forecast to improve to 4.7 percent.

On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 1 percent versus 1.1 percent increase in the preceding period. Data showed that domestic demand advanced underpinned by household spending and higher private investment.

The current account surplus of the balance of payment remained sizeable at MYR 14.3 billion or 3.9 percent of GNI in the second quarter.

In the second quarter, headline inflation increased 0.6 percent mainly reflecting the lapse in the impact of the GST zerorisation, data showed.

IFX Gertrude
08-19-2019, 04:10 AM
Japan Has Y249.6 Billion Trade Deficit In July

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Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 249.6 billion yen in July, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday.

That missed expectations for a shortfall of 194.5 billion yen following the 589.5 billion yen deficit in June.

Exports were down 1.6 percent on year, topping forecasts for a decline of 2.3 percent following the upwardly revised 6.6 percent drop in the previous month (originally -6.7 percent).

Imports dipped an annual 1.2 percent versus forecasts for a decline of 2.3 percent following the 5.2 percent fall a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
08-20-2019, 03:58 AM
The euro will continue to focus on falling

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Last week, the EUR/USD pair was a step away from updating its annual low and found a local trough at 1.1065.

A decrease in the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan to its lowest level over the past seven months somewhat cooled the outburst of the "bears" in EUR/USD. However, this did not force them to abandon their plans.

The weakness of the European economy, the focus of the European Central Bank (ECB) on easing monetary policy, as well as increasing political risks in the region make the euro currency vulnerable. You should not be surprised then at the increase in the chances of its decline by the end of this month to $1.1. A week ago, the derivatives market estimated the likelihood of such a scenario to be realized at more than 16%, while now these chances are 49%.

Obviously, the policy of American protectionism has a more devastating effect on China and the eurozone than on the United States. This is evidenced by the fact that an industry from the eurozone had plummet into an abyss, and the fall of 0.1% of German GDP in the second quarter. Bloomberg analysts predict a further decline in German purchasing managers' indices in August, which increases the risks of a technical recession in the largest currency bloc economy. The divergence of economic growth between the EU and the US is well traced in the dynamics of such an indicator as the index of economic surprises. This fact does not allow the bulls to sleep peacefully for the euro.

If last year investors still had hope that the eurozone would get on its feet and begin to accelerate, then this year it seems that they will be disappointed. The United States still looks like an island of stability in the ocean of world recession.

The "bearish" factor for the euro is also the deterioration of the political landscape in the EU. In Italy, a split in the ruling coalition allowed the country's deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, to initiate a motion of no confidence in the head of government, Giuseppe Conte. Early Parliamentary elections loomed on the horizon, and the flight of investors from the Italian debt market was reflected in the increase in the differential yield of local and German government bonds.

On the contrary, the greenback is doing well. Of course, the USD index rally complicates the life of US exporters and helps reduce corporate profits, but this is an objective process. When rates on government bonds in the United States are higher than in other countries, and the US economy looks better, the dollar, it would seem, is doomed to strengthen.

However, there is a fly in the ointment - US President Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's actions and, as a result, a possible reduction in the rate of federal funds by the end of this year from 2.25% to 1.75%. However, it is unlikely that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, will want to signal a cut in interest rates by 50 basis points at once in September. As for the minutes of the July meeting, it can show the arguments of dissenters who opposed for the FOMC members to ease monetary policy. It is assumed that this will support the EUR/USD bears. In such conditions, the continuation of the fall of the main currency pair seems quite logical.

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IFX Gertrude
08-22-2019, 02:00 AM
Gold at the crossroads: there are plenty of reasons for a correction, but no less in favor of growth

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Gold froze at a crossroads. Apparently, speculators who push prices higher, and consumers who want to buy cheaper metals, decided to take a break.

Since the beginning of this year, gold has risen by almost 19% in price, breaking the psychologically important mark of $1,500 per ounce. The last time this level was observed was in April 2013.

The main reason for the growth of quotes was the fear of investors about the global recession, which forces them to shift capital to safe haven assets. It is assumed that if the concerns of market participants begin to be confirmed, the rally of precious metals will continue.

"Rising prices to a six-year high is primarily due to bonds, and it is extremely important for investors to monitor changes in their yield in order to understand what will be the dynamics," said Oax Hansen of Saxo Bank.

The decrease in bond yields in the world has already led to the fact that sovereign bonds with a total volume of almost $16 trillion give a negative percentage.

The jump in the cost of precious metals was also caused by expectations that the Fed, the ECB and other central banks would stimulate economic growth in various ways. The easing of monetary policy tends to lower interest rates and increase the investment attractiveness of gold.

A sharp rise in prices carries the risks of an equally sharp decline, analysts warn.

"The aggregate gold volume in ETFs is steadily growing and has reached 77.4 million ounces, which is the highest for six years. Previous similar bursts of speculative demand caused a serious correction of quotations," O. Hansen said.

In addition, fears of a global recession may also be exaggerated: now markets are most likely driven by emotions. Recent macroeconomic data for the United States were positive and the reduction of interest rates by the world central bank is aimed at maintaining economic growth.

Reducing tensions in Washington and Beijing's trade relations could also serve as a reason for a short, albeit sharp, price correction.

Another negative point for gold may be the expected decline in demand for jewelry in India due to an increase in import duties in the country from 10% to 12.5%, as well as a change in ETF positions, which will respond to the sale of precious metals in response to a restoration of risk appetite .

In case the Fed comes with a surprise - not to continue to lower the interest rate - a correction in gold prices is also possible.

"We expect the Fed to disappoint the market without lowering interest rates in the coming months, and profit taking will ultimately trigger the end of the gold rally. In the event of a pullback, the $1,350 mark per ounce is likely to become a new level of support," representatives of the Fitch rating agency said.

However, there are plenty of factors in favor of the growth of quotes.

According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the main drivers of gold price growth will be real interest rates, stock risk premium, US dollar, as well as purchases of precious metals by central banks.

According to the forecast of Deutsche Bank, the price of gold will be $1,575 per ounce in the next year and a half, and under certain conditions it can reach $1,700.

"Gold is an extremely profitable investment amid the easing of monetary policy by the leading central banks of the world," said Mark Mebius, founder of the Mobius Capital Partners investment fund.

"The long-term prospect of gold up, up and only up, because the money supply in the world will grow, grow and grow again. Therefore, I believe that gold should be bought at any price," he said.

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IFX Gertrude
08-23-2019, 02:24 AM
The pound believed in Brexit with a deal. How long?

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On Thursday, the British currency jumped sharply up. Such a change of mood was facilitated by the statements of the German Chancellor. According to Angela Merkel, Britain still has time to make a deal with the European Union. These comments were perceived by the market as the willpower of politicians aimed at breaking the impasse of Brexit.

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Such a violent reaction of market participants can be understood. Due to difficulties with Brexit, pound positioning is too skewed towards sales. Therefore, a small, or even controversial, positive regarding the possible conclusion of an agreement with Brussels sets sterling in motion.

After an unexpectedly strong increase in the British currency, strategists began to think about the correction of the market.

"There is probably the potential for the development of a correction," wrote Credit Agricole SA.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will soon meet with various EU leaders to discuss the possibility of a deal. Not the fact that everyone will be as friendly as Germany.

Although French President Emmanuel Macron softened the rhetoric after Angela Merkel, there were still notes of disagreement in his comments. Macron opposed the demands of the UK to reconsider the country's exit from the EU, saying that this is "not an option."

Some strategists drew attention to the fact that the French leader, speaking about the prospects for resolving the border issue with Northern Ireland, noted that in 30 days the parties would not be able to agree on a deal that would be fundamentally different from Theresa May's deal. Macron also made clear that a border decision should ensure that Northern Ireland remains in a single market with the European Union.

Pound buyers have revived, but there is no guarantee that a compromise will be found. The chances of London and Brussels to reach a "workable solution" on the Irish miserable border, which should prevent the growth of the pound.

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IFX Gertrude
08-27-2019, 04:25 AM
Japan Producer Prices Add 0.1% In July

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.1 percent on month in July, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - in line with expectations following the 0.1 percent decline in June.

On a yearly basis, producer prices gained 0.5 percent - shy of expectations for an increase of 0.6 percent and down from 0.7 percent in the previous month.

Individually, prices were up on an annual basis for real estate services, leasing, advertising and transportation.

Prices were down for hotels, rentals and ocean freight transportation.

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IFX Gertrude
08-28-2019, 03:07 AM
USD/JPY: sell the dollar on growth

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Whoever said anything about Donald Trump's tweets, but the White House owner still managed to bring the markets out of balance. High volatility was observed in the USD/JPY pair. In a short time, quotes managed to go back and forth. Demand for the defensive yen is increasing on Tuesday, as it is difficult for investors and traders to believe in the words of the US president, who announced that there was a call from China. Beijing aggressively calls him to the negotiating table. In addition, the facts indicate the opposite. A spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry said he did not know what Trump was talking about. If the fact of the call is not confirmed and China does not make concessions (which is unlikely), one should not hope for a recovery of USD/JPY.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch calls attempts to raise the dollar in conjunction with the yen an opportunity to sell. According to the forecasts of currency strategists, the pair will stay in the region of 105 until the end of the current quarter, and by the end of the year it will fall to the level of 101.

American statistics now look good, but do not flatter yourself about its invulnerability and impenetrable immunity. The global trends, from which the negative blows, will do their job. Banking analysts estimate the chance of a recession in the United States before the end of this year 1 to 3. At the same time, the BAML analytical model signals that the likelihood of such a scenario has increased to 20%.

The recession in the global economy is becoming increasingly apparent. New statistical data is expected to continue to support fears about the consequences of a trade war, the end and edge of which is not visible. It is worth noting that Trump regularly plays with the emotions of market participants and with China, included. The analyst community believes that Beijing is ready to tolerate and wait for the US presidential election in 2020 in the hope that Trump will not win.

Decrease in the USD/JPY quotes should ensure the Fed rate cut and preservation of soft rhetoric. An additional driver promises to be the stock market. In the second half of the year, the peak on it will finally form, and control will pass to the "bears". According to banking analysts, in the context of a trade war and a global recession, easing the Fed's policy is unlikely to ensure a steady increase in risk appetite

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IFX Gertrude
08-29-2019, 02:51 AM
EUR/USD: Should the Fed soften the blow or refuse to play along with Trump?


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The EUR/USD pair is still stuck in the range of 1.1050-1.11150 and so far has not found a reason to exit this side trend.

The day before, former head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley voiced what many probably thought, but did not dare to say out loud.

"If the re-election of Donald Trump in 2020 poses a threat to the US economy, then the Fed should stop being apolitical and indulge the head of the White House," said the former vice president of FOMC.

One of the reasons for the slowdown in US GDP, indeed, is the trade war between Washington and Beijing, which adversely affects investment and exports. Tariffs are a heavy burden on US citizens. The question is, why then should the Fed follow the lead of a person who is pushing the country to the abyss?

According to W. Dudley, attempts by the regulator to protect the US economy from the negative effects of a trade war may not only be ineffective, but will worsen the situation even more.

"What if easing monetary policy would only provoke the US president, allowing him to further escalate the trade conflict and increase the risk of recession?" he said.

D. Trump raises old and introduces new tariffs, putting pressure on the Fed, urging it to cut the interest rate by 1% and to revive the quantitative easing (QE) program. He does all this in order to win the trade war, which harms the US economy. This is the truth that people refuse to listen. However, as you know, he will not get away from it. Another round of escalation of trade tension has led to a decrease in the differential yield of ten- and two-year US government bonds to -5.3 basis points for the first time since March 2007. At the same time, the spread between ten-year and three-month bonds fell to -51.4 basis points. Thus, the chances of a recession in the United States are growing by leaps and bounds, and there is no need to look for the culprit.

Most of all, Trump' statement at the G7 summit on a phone call from the representatives of China regarding the resumption of trade negotiations seems to have surprised the Chinese themselves. So far, Beijing has not given any confirmation of the conversation. The trade war continues, the risks of a slowdown and recession in the US economy increases, and the USD index is growing.

The reasons for the greenback's strengthening primarily lies in the weaknesses of its main competitors. At the same time, Washington's fears of currency interventions with the aim of weakening the US currency are holding back EUR/USD bears from taking action. Neither the deterioration of the political situation in Italy, nor the decrease in German GDP by 0.1% in April-June in quarterly terms led to a breakthrough of support at 1.1050-1.1065 for the EUR/USD pair. It is possible that market participants decided to wait for the release of data on US GDP for the second quarter, as well as the August release on European inflation, which will be released this week.

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IFX Gertrude
09-02-2019, 05:06 AM
European Economics Preview: Eurozone Final PMI Data Due

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Final Purchasing Managers' survey data from euro area is due on Monday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, Purchasing Managers' survey results are due from Norway, Poland and Turkey. Poland's factory PMI is forecast to rise to 47.7 in August from 47.4 in July.

In the meantime, Turkey's GDP data is due. The economy is forecast to contract 2 percent on year in the second quarter, following a 2.6 percent fall in the first quarter.

At 3.45 am ET, IHS Markit is scheduled to issue Italy's manufacturing PMI data. The PMI is expected to rise slightly to 48.6 in August from 48.5 in July.

Thereafter, final PMI figures are due from France and Germany at 3.50 am and 3.55 am ET, respectively.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is set to release euro area factory PMI data. The final reading is forecast to match the flash estimate of 47.0 in August.

Half an hour later, UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI figures are due. The PMI is seen at 48.8 in August versus 48.0 in July.

At 5.00 am ET, Italy's Istat releases July retail sales data. Sales had increased 1.9 percent on month in June.

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IFX Gertrude
09-03-2019, 12:29 AM
EUR/USD: if there is a rebound, it will be short-lived, the decline will continue

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After a slight rebound, the EUR/USD pair may resume falling, as the trend is still in a downward direction. Resistance is expected at a psychologically significant level of 1.1000, followed by 1.1027, then 1.050, at which EUR/USD held in mid-August. A potential rebound, if any, will be temporary. Although the situation in the German political arena encourages the euro's growth, Italy has not yet formed a government, and in Germany, the key parties have agreed only on fundamental principles and still need to agree on many details. Moreover, the economic situation in the eurozone remains alarming. Markit purchasing managers' final indices for the manufacturing sector show that prospects remain bleak.

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How low can the euro go? This question after the Friday crash worries many traders. Most likely, the market will see a temporary recovery. The chancellor of the ruling CDU party, Angela Merkel, won the local elections in Saxony. In other regions, fears of the victory of extremists from the Alternative German State (AfD) also did not materialize. These results will help stabilize the shaky coalition and strengthen the role of Merkel as a guarantor of stability on the continent. There is another reason for the rebound. US President Donald Trump, although he introduced new duties, recalled that high-level talks should be held at the end of this month in Washington. Until recently, the relative lull in the trade war stimulated the growth of the dollar, now the dollar will experience downward pressure. In addition, the escalation of the trade war means better prospects for German manufacturers, which depend on exports to China.

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IFX Yvonne
09-04-2019, 06:24 AM
Ireland Services Activity Growth Weakest Since January

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Ireland's services activity grew at the slowest pace since January on weak new orders and employment, survey results from IHS Markit showed Wednesday.

The AIB services Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 54.6 in August from 55.0 in July. The score signaled the slowest rise since January. However, a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.

Inflows of overall new business expanded at the slowest pace in four months, amid reports from some firms of Brexit uncertainty negatively affecting orders from the UK.

Irish service providers recorded the weakest payroll expansion since May 2013. On the price front, data showed that while the rate of input cost inflation eased, companies increased their output charges at a faster pace in August.

Meanwhile, sentiment towards activity over the coming year dropped to the lowest since December 2011 as Brexit weighed on optimism.

The composite output index held steady at 51.8 in August despite the manufacturing sector continued to contract.

IFX Gertrude
09-05-2019, 02:46 AM
Golden cosmos

Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.

The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.

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On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.

I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.

The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.

Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.

I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!

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IFX Gertrude
09-05-2019, 05:10 AM
European Economics Preview: Germany Factory Orders Data Due

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Factory orders from Germany and quarterly national accounts from Switzerland are due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 1.45 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to release Swiss GDP data. The economy is forecast to grow 0.2 percent sequentially in the second quarter after expanding 0.6 percent in the first quarter.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to publish Germany's factory orders data for July. Orders are forecast to shrink 1.5 percent on month, in contrast to June's 2.5 percent increase.

At 3.00 am ET, retail sales data is due from the Czech Republic. Economists expect sales to climb 5.9 percent on year in July, following a 0.2 percent rise in June.

Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank is set to announce its rate decision. The bank is forecast to leave its key rate unchanged at -0.25 percent.

In the meantime, IHS Markit is scheduled to issue Germany's construction PMI data for August.

At 5.00 am ET, Greece unemployment data is due for June.

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IFX Gertrude
09-06-2019, 04:26 AM
Euro drops to new lows against the pound, but the joy will be short-lived

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EUR/GBP fell below a critical level of 0.90. The positive attitude towards the British pound makes the EUR/GBP pair forget about further growth and break through the critical support level of 0.90 in order to move lower to new two-month lows. The euro weakened amid optimism over Brexit and is falling for the third consecutive session in response to an obvious change in sentiment against the British pound. The currency is recovering amid growing optimism, especially after British lawmakers voted to postpone Brexit's deadline and the government did not approve a bill calling for a general election on October 15. Nevertheless, the scenario of a "hard" Brexit without a deal is still under consideration, which means that soon political instability will return to the UK.

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What to expect from GBP? The renewed growth momentum is pushing the currency to new heights in the light of recent political events in the UK. Nevertheless, according to forecasts, sterling will remain under pressure, as political uncertainty has not disappeared, and the likelihood of general elections is also high, and this is only a matter of time. On the other hand, the Bank of England remains "silent" in relation to Brexit and its potential consequences. It is worth recalling that at its last meeting, the central bank refused to include the likelihood of a "hard divorce" scenario in its forecasts.

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IFX Yvonne
09-10-2019, 05:06 AM
Australia Business Confidence Weakens In August: NAB

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Australia's business confidence and conditions deteriorated in August, survey results from the National Australia Bank showed Tuesday.

The business confidence index fell to +1 from +4 in July. Likewise, the business conditions index declined to +1 from +3 a month ago.

Business confidence and other forward looking indicators suggest there is unlikely to be an imminent turnaround in business conditions, NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said.

The business survey for August was a disappointment on the headline figures, and consistent with domestic demand growth remaining significantly below potential, Tom Kennedy, an economist at J.P. Morgan said.

IFX Gertrude
09-11-2019, 01:36 AM
AUD/USD paused, awaits news after a five-day rally

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After a sharp rally during the previous five trading days and adding almost 150 pips over this period, the AUD/USD pair entered the consolidation phase and fluctuates in a narrow range near 0.6850. Earlier, the National Australia Bank reported that the business confidence index fell to 1 point in August from 4 points in July, and the business conditions index fell to 1 point from 2 points, in such conditions it is difficult for the aussie to continue to press the dollar. In addition, the producer price index in China fell to -0.8% in August year-on-year, which further inhibits growth.

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On the other hand, the lack of significant macroeconomic data from the United States did not make it possible for the US dollar index to strengthen and limited losses in the pair. At the moment, the US dollar index shows a small daily gain of 98.38 points. It seems that investors are likely to stand aside and watch, waiting for new events around the trade conflict between the US and China. Earlier today, the White House trade adviser said that "patience is needed regarding trade negotiations between the US and China," but he has not made any statements hinting at progress in the negotiations.

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IFX Gertrude
09-12-2019, 02:14 AM
Japan Core Machine Orders Sink 6.6% In July

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Core machine orders in Japan were down a seasonally adjusted 6.6 percent on month in July, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 896.9 billion yen.

That beat expectations for a fall of 8.1 percent following the 13.9 percent surge in June.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders rose 0.3 percent - again exceeding expectations for a fall of 4.3 percent following the 12.5 percent gain in the previous month.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by 0.1 percent in July.

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IFX Gertrude
09-13-2019, 01:40 AM
EUR/GBP returns to growth, pound lacks good news

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A Scottish court ruled that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful and the uncertainty exacerbated the GBP. The EUR/GBP pair returns to the level of 0.8940 after three consecutive sessions of decline. Returning to the political situation in the UK, one should take into account the forecasts, which set out several worst-case scenarios in the event of the hard version of Brexit at the end of October. Analysts emphasize the high likelihood of riots, rising food prices and shortages of medical supplies. On the other hand, the euro also cannot find support. The German Consumer Price Growth Index is likely to fall by 0.2 percent in August compared with July and grow by 1.4 percent year on year. Additional data indicate a decrease in industrial production in the eurozone in July by 0.4 percent compared with the previous month and by two percent year on year, which is below market expectations.

The sale of the British pound also caused a slight downward correction after recent positive results. Sterling will remain under scrutiny, as political pressure has not subsided, and the issue with Brexit has not been resolved. Now everyone is looking at the events taking place in the political arena of Great Britain during the period of "inaction" of the Parliament, which will begin its work in mid-October, it is expected that the queen will personally deliver a speech. At the same time, we remember that the Bank of England recently ruled out "negative interest rates" and expressed its opinion about the "likelihood of a recession in the country."


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IFX Yvonne
09-16-2019, 08:42 AM
Denmark Producer Prices Fall In August

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Denmark's producer prices declined further in August, figures from Statistics Denmark showed on Monday.

The producer prices fell 3.1 percent year-on-year in August, following a 2.2 percent decline in July.

Domestic market prices decreased 4.4 percent annually in July and foreign market prices declined 1.4 percent.

Import prices fell 1.0 percent annually in August and decreased 0.3 percent from the previous month.

On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.3 percent in August, after a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month.

IFX Gertrude
09-17-2019, 03:25 AM
Australia House Prices Sink 0.7% In Q2

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House prices in Australia were down 0.7 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 1.1 percent following the 3.0 percent drop in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, house prices fell 7.4 percent - unchanged from Q1 but again beating forecasts for a fall of 7.7 percent.

The total value of residential dwellings in Australia fell A$17,611.6m to A$6,610,590.1m this quarter. The mean price of residential dwellings fell A$4,400 to A$638,900. The number of residential dwellings rose by 43,100 to 10,347,200.

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IFX Gertrude
09-18-2019, 02:30 AM
Japan Has Y136.3 Billion Deficit In August

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Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 136.329 billion yen in August, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.

That beat forecasts for a shortfall of 365.4 billion yen following the 250.7 billion yen deficit in July.

Exports were down 8.2 percent on year to 6.140 trillion yen, also topping expectations for a decline of 10.9 percent following the 1.5 percent annual drop in the previous month.

Imports sank an annual 12.0 percent versus forecasts for a decline of 11.0 percent after easing 1.2 percent a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
09-19-2019, 04:39 AM
Bank Of Japan Keeps Policy Unchanged

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The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged as widely expected on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve resorted to further easing.

The Policy Board of the BoJ voted 7-2 to maintain interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the bank.

The bank said it will purchase government bonds so that the yield of 10-year JGBs will remain at around zero percent.

Further, the bank will purchase JGBs in a flexible manner so that their outstanding amount will increase at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion.

The bank said it will reexamine economic and price developments at the next monetary policy meeting in October, when it updates the outlook for economic activity and prices. The bank repeated that it will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if needed.

It is worth recalling that the Bank made similar pledges in 2016 amid concerns over China's economy, but never followed through on them, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Since then, concerns over the impact of looser policy on the health of banks have intensified. As such, the BoJ will keep its interest rate targets unchanged over the coming year, the economist noted.

Regarding economic outlook, the BoJ said Japan's economy is likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend, despite being affected by the slowdown in overseas economies for the time being.

Further, the bank said it is necessary to pay closer attention to the possibility of losing momentum towards achieving the price stability target.

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IFX Gertrude
09-20-2019, 03:00 AM
The dollar is trying to unravel the Fed's plans

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The central event of this week - the next meeting of the Federal Reserve - did not bring clarity. Analysts continue to wonder what to expect from the regulator in the future.

However, unlike US President Donald Trump, who called Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "a terrible communicator," financial markets seem to have clearly understood the hints of the latter. The Federal Reserve chief's statement that the central bank is ready to aggressively reduce the interest rate in the event of a deterioration in the well-being of the US economy, caused the S&P 500 to grow most rapidly over the past six weeks. Prior to that, the index dipped under the influence of the regulator's rate forecasts: 7 out of 17 FOMC members believe that it should be reduced by 25 basis points by the end of the year, 5 believe that it will remain unchanged, and 5 would like to see not one, but two acts of monetary expansion. Apparently, investors were frightened not by the easing of the Fed's monetary policy (of which I have been certain for a long time already), but by the fact that the rate on federal funds is likely to remain at 1.75% until the end of next year.

Of course, you can talk for a long time about what affected the split in the ranks of the FOMC (3 out of 10 Committee members voted against lowering the interest rate from 2.25% to 2%), but when so much uncertainty is observed on the market, pluralism of opinions is inevitable. Experts call the current situation as "Powell's puzzle": the Fed is forced to balance between strong macro statistics in the United States, which allowed it to increase the country's GDP for the current year from 2.1% to 2.2%, and international threats, including trade conflicts and Brexit.

The mixed reaction of the markets and the lack of a clear signal from the Fed about the weakening of monetary policy in 2019 caused another bout of anger from the head of the White House, Donald Trump.

"Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No "guts", no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!", D. Trump wrote on Twitter.

Although the Fed chairman prefers to ignore such attacks against him, this time he commented on the idea of negative interest rates called for by the US president. According to J. Powell, if the situation begins to deteriorate, then the central bank will revive QE rather than lower the federal funds rate below zero.

The day before, the greenback slightly strengthened across the entire spectrum following the results of the September FOMC meeting, but today it is gradually losing ground, since the Fed still does not have a consensus on further actions to adjust the monetary rate.

The market is not completely sure how the US central bank will behave. Most analysts expect the regulator to further trim the rate on federal funds this year, but only one reduction is laid.

Probably, investors will wait for some new signals. In recent days, the trade war between the US and China has left the information field. If another escalation of the conflict occurs, the market may perceive this as a signal for more active easing of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

"It is obvious that the Fed does not have a consensus on what to do next: on the one hand, D. Trump presses, blaming the central bank leadership for incompetence and demanding an urgent interest rate cut to zero or lower, on the other, there are no formal reasons for this," he said ING chief economist James Niley.

Valentin Marinov, Head of Currency Research at Credit Agricole, calls the FOMC decision to trim rates as "hawkish" cuts, believing that such a move is positive for the greenback.

"I believe that currencies that are more closely correlated with investor sentiment regarding risky assets will be more vulnerable to the dollar than the euro, yen and gold," he said.

"I think the Fed will succeed if it can slightly weaken the dollar's position, and make the curve of its fall rate a little steeper. Markets have already shown the expectation of another cut in the base interest rate in December, "said Jim Caron of Morgan Stanley.

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IFX Gertrude
09-23-2019, 06:15 AM
European Economics Preview: Eurozone Flash PMI Data Due

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Flash Purchasing Managers' survey data from euro area is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit is slated to issue France flash PMI data for September. The composite output index is forecast to drop to 52.5 from 52.9 in August.

At 3.30 am ET, Germany's flash PMI data is due. Economists forecast the composite PMI to rise to 52.0 in September from 51.7 in August.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is scheduled to publish euro area final PMI results. The composite PMI is seen at 52.0 in September versus 51.9 in August. At 4.30 am ET, UK household finance data is due from IHS Markit.

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IFX Gertrude
09-24-2019, 04:15 AM
Pound at a loss, but does not lose optimism

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Hopes of the British pound to rise gradually fade, but the probability of growth still remains, analysts say. The currency of the United Kingdom slightly grew on the positive news last week, but this effect was short-lived.

Recall, last Friday, analysts marked a rally of the pound, which has risen in price on the wave of new optimism regarding a possible deal on Brexit. This rise was triggered by the comments of Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, who stated the likelihood of Britain leaving the EU with an agreement. However, the official did not disclose the details of this decision, in connection with which experts considered the position of the pound to be rather unstable.

The experts were right in many respects: on Monday, September 23, the British currency tried to break through strong option levels on the news about alternative solutions to the problem of the Irish border, proposed by the government of Boris Johnson. Some of them even won the approval of Brexit's main opponents without a deal, the Northern Ireland Democratic Union Party (DUP). Many representatives of the EU leadership, including Juncker, softened the general rhetoric, but the signal that the EU was ready to amend the agreement and approve the deal turned out to be false. As a result, the last chance to retain Britain as part of the EU was lost.

The unstable political situation shook the British currency. It still clings to its former optimism, but it is fading before our eyes. At the same time, the GBP/USD currency pair is traded in the structure of the first impulse of decline. The goal is the level of 1.2444, and then a correction to 1.2515 is expected. In the future, analysts do not rule out a fall to the level of 1.2444 and lower, to 1.2360.

On Friday, it became clear that no real breakthrough regarding Brexit is expected. Boris Johnson is quite happy with the country's exit from the EU without a deal, and an attempt to organize new negotiations is unlikely to drastically change the current state of affairs.

In this situation, not only the pound and the entire British economy will suffer, but also the eurozone economy, analysts at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are certain. They confirmed the negative scenario in the event of a "hard" Brexit, which would hit the eurozone GDP, reducing it by 0.5 percentage points (pp), while UK GDP would fall by 2 pp.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair is trying to "hold face" and not slide to the lows, however, analysts are at a loss to answer how long the pound will last. Like a true English gentleman, it seeks to remain steadfast and a good face in any game.

In the short term, the British currency can test the range of 1.2700-1.2720, analysts said. However, the market still hopes for growth, although the priority in terms of volume remains with deferred sales. Moreover, even a slight negative signal against the GBP/USD pair will throw it into a strong resistance zone to the level of 1.2250, analysts said.

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IFX Yvonne
09-25-2019, 07:05 AM
BoJ's Masai Says Ready To Ease Policy Further If Required

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The Bank of Japan is ready to take additional easing measures if the momentum towards achieving the inflation target is lost, Board Member Takako Masai said Wednesday.

The bank will thoroughly examine risks to overseas economies and carefully assess how those risks affect Japan's economic activity and prices, Masai told business leaders in Mie.

The banker expressed concerns about developments in overseas economies namely, fast approaching Brexit deadline and trade issues between the United States and China.

Masai said she intends to continue to conduct monetary policy appropriately toward achieving the price stability target while considering all conceivable adverse effects and positive effects from every angle.

IFX Gertrude
09-26-2019, 04:15 AM
UK Car Production Rises For First Time In 15 Months

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UK car production increased for the first time in 15 months in August, data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed on Thursday.

Car production grew 3.3 percent on a yearly basis in August as factories kept production lines rolling throughout the month after they brought forward planned summer shutdowns to April in preparation for the original Brexit deadline.

The increase in August couldn't offset the substantial losses posted in April. Only 2,903 more cars were produced in August 2019 than in the same month last year, the agency noted.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said, "While growth is always welcome, today's figures mask the underlying downward trend and strengthening global headwinds facing the sector, including international trade tensions, massive technological upheaval and, in the UK, political and economic uncertainty."

Production for the domestic market advanced 15.2 percent in August. Meanwhile, output for exports grew marginally by 0.6 percent.

This disguised ongoing weakness in major global markets with production for China down 43.8 percent, exports to the US falling 9.1 percent and those to the EU dropped 13.7 percent in the first eight months.

The year-to-date production plunged 17 percent. Output failed to reach one million units by August for the first time in five years, the lobby noted.

The SMMT repeatedly called for Brexit deal to maintain competitiveness and safeguard jobs.

SMMT Chief Executive Hawes said the mere threat of no deal has undermined investment and the potential imposition of tariffs, border delays and additional administrative burdens would damage competitiveness.

"We now need parliament and government to redouble efforts to get a deal that maintains free and frictionless trade," said Hawes.

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IFX Gertrude
09-27-2019, 04:20 AM
UK Consumer Confidence Improves In September

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UK consumer confidence improved in September, survey results from the market research group GfK showed Friday.

The consumer confidence index rose to -12 in September from -14 in August. "Since the Brexit referendum we have witnessed a long succession of negative Overall Index scores with the overall trend downwards," Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said. "This month, British consumers appear to be treading water during this wait-and-see run-up to October 31st."

The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last 12 months climbed three points to +2. Likewise, the forecast for personal finances over the coming year gained two points to +4.

The measure for the general economic situation over the last year also increased two points, to -32. At the same time, expectations for the general economic situation rose three points to -35.

Further, the major purchase index improved two points to +3. The savings index also rose two points to +23.

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IFX Yvonne
09-30-2019, 06:28 AM
China Manufacturing Sector Expands Most Since Early 2018

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China's manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace since early 2018 in September despite ongoing trade disputes with the United States, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Monday.

The Caixin factory Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.4 in September from 50.4 in August. Any score above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. This was the highest score since February 2018.

The official data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the factory sector continued to contract in September. However, the manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.8 from 49.5 a month ago.

New orders increased at the fastest rate since March 2018, while new export orders decreased slightly in September, IHS Markit reported. Companies said that the ongoing China-US trade dispute had continued to dampen foreign sales.

Employment level remained unchanged for the second month in September. Outstanding business increased amid stagnant payrolls and rise in orders.

Higher volumes of total new work led firms to expand production again in September. The rate of growth was the fastest seen since August 2018.

Input buying rose for the third month in a row and stocks of purchased items expanded slightly.

Input costs increased at the end of the third quarter and the output cost remained broadly unchanged compared to the previous month.

Nonetheless, goods producers continued to express a relatively subdued level of confidence towards future output, as worries persisted over the outcome of the ongoing China-US trade negotiations.

"Growth in manufacturing demand was mainly driven by the domestic market as China-U.S. trade conflicts still restrained overseas demand," Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, said.

IFX Yvonne
10-01-2019, 06:26 AM
Australia Cuts Key Rate By 25 bps

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Australia's central bank reduced as much as possible, on Tuesday.

Bank of Australia, governed by Philip Lowe, decided to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent.

The bank had a lower rate in June and July. The back-to-back rate cut in July was the first since mid-2012.

In Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target, "the bank said in a statement.

"The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labor market, and seek to achieve sustainable growth in the economy," the bank said.

IFX Gertrude
10-02-2019, 06:33 AM
Japan Corporate Inflation Expectations Remain Stable

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Japanese firms' inflation expectations held steady in the third quarter, the Tankan summary of "Inflation Outlook of Enterprises" from Bank of Japan showed Wednesday.

Companies expect annual inflation of 0.9 percent in the year ahead, unchanged from the previous outlook.

Similarly, the three-year ahead inflation is seen at 1 percent, the same rate as estimated in June. The projection for next five years was retained at 1.1 percent.

The central bank aims at achieving price stability of 2 percent since 2013. Although the bank unveiled various quantitative and qualitative easing, inflation still remains well below the target.

The Tankan survey results published on Tuesday showed that the business conditions for large manufacturers declined moderately to 5 in the third quarter from 7 in the second quarter.

Likewise, the business conditions index for non-manufactures dropped to 21 from 23.

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IFX Gertrude
10-03-2019, 03:13 AM
Japan Services PMI Falls To 52.8 In September - Jibun

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Japanese firms' inflation expectations held steady in the third quarter, the Tankan The services sector in Japan continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Friday with a PMI score of 52.8.

That's down from the 22-month high of 53.3 in August, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, output was up solidly in September, although new orders grew at a pace below trend for 2019. Selling charges increased only fractionally.

The survey also showed that the composite index came in at 51.5, down from 51.9 in August.

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IFX Gertrude
10-04-2019, 05:45 AM
UK Economic Conditions Deteriorate On Weak Manufacturing Activity: BCC

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The UK economic conditions weakened in the third quarter reflecting a marked deterioration in manufacturing sector activity, survey results from the British Chambers of Commerce showed Friday.

According to Quarterly?Economic?Survey, manufacturing firms reporting increased domestic sales fell to zero. The domestic order balance entered negative territory for the first time in seven years, to -7 in the third quarter. Both are at their weakest since the fourth quarter of 2011.

The balance of manufacturing firms reporting increased export sales dropped to +3, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2015 and the balance for export orders went negative and came in at its weakest level since the third quarter of 2009.

The dominant services sector reported a decrease in the balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales and orders, and export orders, the survey showed. The domestic sales balance of service providers slid to 15 and the balance for domestic orders dropped marginally to 9 in the third quarter.

Manufacturers' cashflow position - a key indicator of the financial health of a business, deteriorated. In the services sector, cashflow held steady at a low level.

"A stuttering services sector coupled with a worrying downturn in manufacturing activity indicates that any bounce back in UK GDP growth from the contraction in the second quarter is likely to be underwhelming at best," Suren?Thiru, Head of Economics at the BCC, said.

"This is a reality check, not scaremongering or politicking. These are some of the worst figures we've seen in a decade - and jobs, businesses, and the future success of our communities are on the line," Adam Marshall, Director General of the BCC, said.

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IFX Gertrude
10-07-2019, 04:40 AM
China's Forex Reserves Decline In September

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China's foreign exchange reserves declined in September, figures from the People's Bank of China showed over the weekend.

Forex reserves totaled $3.092 trillion at the end of September compared to $3.107 trillion in August. The expected level was $3.105 trillion.

The currency exchange rate and changes in asset prices affected the level of foreign exchange reserves.

Martin Lynge Rasmussen, an economist at Capital Economics, said the central bank relied on state banks during August to contain forex volatility, but the latest forex reserves figures suggests that last month this may have been either replaced with, or supplemented by, direct forex sales by the PBoC.

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IFX Gertrude
10-08-2019, 02:38 AM
At a breakneck height: recession as a "lift" for gold

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Statements by a number of economists about the risk of a recession in the US economy are gaining momentum. Experts analyzed how the implementation of such a scenario will affect the price of gold, and concluded that the precious metal will appreciably rise in price.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs, the largest US bank, are confident that in the fourth quarter of this year, the cost of the yellow metal will rise to $1,600 per ounce. The reason for this, analysts believe a high probability of a recession in the US economy. Analysts of the leading analytical company Independent Strategy agree with them. They claim that in 2020, the price of gold may increase by 30% from the current key value of $1,500. Accordingly, it can reach $2000 per ounce, according to the Independent Strategy.

The appreciation of precious metals will be facilitated by the desire of market participants to maintain their capital. It is known that gold is best suited for this purpose, and the increased demand for yellow metal pushes its value up. Analysts are very optimistic about the future prospects of the gold market. They are confident that the precious metal will receive support for growth amid fear of a recession in the US economy. Note that the main threats to financial markets are weak data on the US labor market and a slowdown in economic growth.

Currently, the XAU/USD pair is trading near the levels of 1502-1503. According to analysts, the price of gold has generated two signals over the past month, one of which shows a direction to increase, the other - to decline. After the breakdown of the support level of 1487.70, the price of the precious metal may fall to the target level of 1418.25. In the case of a positive scenario and an update of the level of 1557.20, gold can reach the target level of 1595.00, analysts said. In the long run, due to increasing instability in the global economy, analysts recommend opening long positions in precious metals.

At the moment, the yellow metal is trading in the range of $1,505 $1,507 per ounce, completing the correction phase. Gold prices recovered the lion's share of the previous loss in relation to major currencies, as global stock markets fell after the US due to the weakest data on production in the US. At the moment, the score is 1:0 in favor of the precious metal, which plays into the hands of the high probability of monetary policy easing by regulators of Australia and Japan.

In the short term, the yellow metal could quickly return to local resistance at $1,530 per ounce, analysts warn. For further take-off to multi-year highs, powerful geopolitical or economic triggers will be required, the main of which may be the risk of a recession in the United States. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that the long-term forecast for the cost of precious metals is highly dependent on economic growth in the United States. Analysts recall the growing risk of a recession in the US economy, which is increasing annually. Goldman Sachs believes that the recession in the United States will become a kind of "lift" for gold, capable of pushing the precious metal to the next price peaks.

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IFX Gertrude
10-09-2019, 03:57 AM
#USDX vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY vs GBP / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from October 09, 2019 APLs & ZUP analysis

We would like to bring to your attention a comprehensive analysis of the development options for the movement of the cross-instruments EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY , as well as the dollar index #USDX and the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY currency from October 09, 2019.
Minuette (H4 timeframe)
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US dollar Index
The development of the USDX dollar index movement will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (99.15 - 98.95 - 98.75) Minuette operational scale fork. The details are shown in the animated chart.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level 99.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the development of the #USDX movement will continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (99.25 - 99.40 - 99.55) with the prospect of reaching the equilibrium zone (99.60 - 99.75 - 99.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, if the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level 98.75), equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork is broken, the downward movement of the dollar index can continue to the local minimum 98.64 - the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (98.45) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191008/analytics5d9cb15008db0.jpg

____________________ US dollar vs Japanese yen

The currency of the "country of the rising sun" in the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, respectively, further development of the USD / JPY movement from October 9, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of boundaries (107.00 - 106.80 - 106.55) of this equilibrium zones. The movement markup is shown in the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 107.00), of the Minuette operational scale fork, then the upward movement USD / JPY will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (107.55 - 107.72 - 107.90) and the UTL control line (108.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of support level 106.55 on the lower boundary of ISL61.8 of the Minuette operational scale fork together with support level of 106.45 will determine the development of the currency of the country of the rising sun inside the 1/2 Median Line channel (106.45 - 105.90 - 105.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the USD / JPY movement, depending on the breakdown direction of the above equilibrium zone, are shown in the animated chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191008/analytics5d9cb168965ed.jpg

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Euro vs Japanese yen

The development of the cross-instrument movement EUR / JPY from October 9, 2019 will continue in the equilibrium zone (117.95 - 117.30 - 116.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The markup of this movement is shown in the animated chart..

The breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 116.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork will direct the EUR / JPY movement to the local minimum 115.84 and the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (115.10 - 114.70 - 114.30).

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 117.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the upward movement of this cross-instrument will continue to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (118.65 - 119.10 - 119.55) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the EUR / JPY movement depending on the development of the Minuette equilibrium zone are presented in the animated chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191008/analytics5d9cb1829943a.jpg

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Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen

Meanwhile, the development of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument movement from October 9, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range :

resistance level of 130.90 (lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork); support level of 129.97 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of support level of 129.97 will confirm that further movement of the cross-instrument will be developed inside the 1/2 Median Line channel (129.97 - 128.50 - 127.00) and the equilibrium zones (128.75 - 127.00 - 125.40) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

If you return above ISL61.8 Minuette (resistance level of 130.90), the development of the GBP / JPY movement will begin to occur again in the equilibrium zone (130.90 - 131.95 - 133.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL (133.85) and control UTL (134.50) lines of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The movement options, depending on the breakdown direction of the above range, are shown in the animated chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191008/analytics5d9cb19f8c457.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;
Yen - 13.6% ;
Pound Sterling - 11.9%;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish Krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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IFX Gertrude
10-09-2019, 05:06 AM
Australia Consumer Sentiment Weakest Since Mid-2015

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/analysts/big_preview/australia/1.jpg

Australia's consumer confidence weakened to the lowest level in more than four years in October despite interest rate reductions, survey results from Westpac showed Wednesday.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 92.8 in October from 98.2 in September. This was the lowest score since July 2015.

Typically, an interest rate cut boosts confidence particularly around consumers' expectations for and assessments of their own finances.

However, in this survey the indicator measuring assessment of current family finances dropped 4.9 percent to 80.2 and that for future family finances slid 3.7 percent to a five-year low of 93.3.

Despite the rate cut, assessment for the economy for the next year plunged by 6 percent to 87.1 and the five-year outlook declined 9.1 percent to 88.9.

Consumer attitudes towards spending also deteriorated in October. The 'time to buy a major household item' sub-index declined 4.2 percent to 114.5.

Global events also contributed to the weak result in October with the deterioration in US-China trade relations weighing on the global economy amid speculation of a recession in the US, Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, said.

Evans noted that the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to take some time to assess the impact of the three rate cuts before deciding to move again.

Westpac expects that next move will be a further cut in the cash rate to 0.5 percent in February next year.

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IFX Gertrude
10-10-2019, 02:55 AM
Australia Home Loans Climb 3.2% In August

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The total number of home loans in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent on month in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at 33,468.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 2.3 percent following the upwardly revised 4.3 percent increase in July (originally 4.2 percent).

Personal finance commitments fell 2.2 percent in August following a 3.8 percent fall in July and was down 12.9 percent on August 2018.

The value of new lending commitments for owner occupier dwellings rose 1.9 per cent nationally in August, with rises in all states and territories apart from the Northern Territory.

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IFX Gertrude
10-11-2019, 04:00 AM
Sri Lanka Central Bank Keeps Rates Unchanged

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Sri Lanka's central bank left its key interest rates unchanged despite weak economic growth and higher inflation.

The monetary board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka decided to keep the Standing Deposit Facility Rate and the Standing Lending Facility Rate steady at 7.00 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively, the bank said in a statement on Friday.

The bank had reduced the rate by 50 basis points each in May and August.

The economic growth eased to 1.6 percent in the second quarter as the Easter Sunday attacks weighed heavily on the service sector activity. The central bank forecast economic growth to remain subdued this year but a gradual recovery is expected over the medium term.

Further, the bank expects inflation to stabilize well within the desired range of 4-6 percent with transitory supply side price pressures easing.

The vulnerability of the currency is likely to be a key barrier to looser policy in the near term, Alex Holmes, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Global sentiment should start to improve around the middle of next year, and this could allow the central bank to cut interest rates further, Holmes noted. The economist expects a 50 basis point reduction in the second half of next year.

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IFX Gertrude
10-14-2019, 01:38 AM
New Zealand Services Sector Slows In September - BusinessNZ

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The services sector in New Zealand continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from BusinessNZ showed on Monday with a Performance of Services Index score of 54.4.

That's down from 54.6 in August, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Among the individual components of the survey, sales (54.4), supplier deliveries (50.5), stocks (51.8), employment (52.7) and new orders (59.3) all continued to expand last month.

"The fact that new orders/business (59.3) improved to its highest result since January should assist with general business activity going forward. However, looking more broadly the gap in performance between the services and manufacturing sectors persists. With other key economic data showing a general trend decline, the question becomes to what degree will the services sector be affected by slowing influences elsewhere in the months ahead," BusinessNZ chief executive Kirk Hope said.

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IFX Gertrude
10-15-2019, 03:10 AM
China Consumer Prices Climb 3.0% On Year In September

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Consumer prices in China were up 3.0 percent on year in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for 2.9 percent and was up from 2.8 percent in August.

On a monthly basis, inflation rose 0.9 percent - accelerating from 0.7 percent in the previous month.

The bureau also said that producer prices contracted 1.2 percent on year, matching expectations following the 0.8 percent decline a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
10-16-2019, 01:07 AM
New Zealand CPI Climbs 0.7% In Q3

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Consumer prices in New Zealand were up 0.7 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - surpassing expectations for an increase of 0.6 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous three months.

Housing and household utilities rose 1.2 percent on quarter, influenced by higher prices for property rates and related services (up 4.9 percent).

Food prices rose 1.3 percent, influenced by higher prices for meat, poultry, and fish (up 3.4 percent).

On a yearly basis, consumer prices advanced 1.5 percent - again exceeding expectations for 1.4 percent and down from 1.7 percent in the three months prior.

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IFX Gertrude
10-17-2019, 12:27 AM
Australia Unemployment Data Due On Thursday

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Australia will on Thursday release jobless numbers for September, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3 percent, with the addition of 15,000 jobs following the gain of 34,700 jobs in August. The participation rate is called unchanged at 66.2 percent.

Singapore will provide September numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth SGD41.00 billion and exports were at SGD45.18 billion for a trade surplus of SGD4.18 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
10-18-2019, 01:01 AM
Chinese Data Due On Friday

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China is scheduled to release a raft of data on Friday, headlining a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. On tap are Q3 numbers for gross domestic product and September figures for industrial production, retail sale, fixed asset investment and unemployment.

GDP is expected to rise 1.5 percent on quarter and 6.1 percent on year, slowing from 1.6 percent on quarter and 6.2 percent on year in the three months prior.

Industrial production is tipped to add 5.0 percent on year, up from 4.4 percent in August. Retail sales are expected to add an annual 7.8 percent, up from 7.5 percent in the previous month.

Fixed asset investment is called steady at 5.5 percent, while the jobless rate is predicted to be unchanged at 5.2 percent.

Japan will see September data for nationwide consumer prices, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 0.2 percent on year - slowing from 0.3 percent in August. Core CPI is pegged at an annual 0.3 percent, down from 0.5 percent in the previous month.

Hong Kong will release unemployment numbers for September; in August, the jobless rate was 2.9 percent.

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IFX Yvonne
10-21-2019, 06:58 AM
New Zealand Credit Card Spending Falls In September

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New Zealand's credit card spending declined in September after rising in the previous month, figures from Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed on Monday.

Credit card spending fell to 0.1 percent month-on-month in September, after a 2.5 percent increase in August. In July, credit card spending declined 1.6 percent.

Domestic billing dropped 0.2 percent monthly to NZ$3.43 billion and overseas billings rose 0.3 percent to NZ$586 million.

On a year-on-year basis, overall credit card spending grew to 4.8 percent in September, but slower than 6.0 percent growth logged in the previous month.

IFX Gertrude
10-22-2019, 12:48 AM
Hong Kong Inflation Data Due On Tuesday

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Hong Kong is on Tuesday scheduled to release September figures for consumer prices, highlighting an extremely light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In August, inflation was up 3.5 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
10-23-2019, 03:21 AM
New Zealand Trade Deficit NZ$1.242 Billion In September

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New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$1.242 billion in September, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.

That exceeded expectations for a shortfall of NZ$1.375 billion following the NZ$1.565 billion deficit in August.

Exports were up 5.1 percent on year to NZ$4.47 billion, beating forecasts for NZ$4.30 billion and up from NZ$4.13 billion in the previous month.

Imports fell an annual 2.1 percent to NZ$5.71 billion versus expectations for NZ$5.70 billion and up from NZ$5.69 billion a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
10-25-2019, 02:15 AM
Japan Machine Tool Order Data Due On Friday

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Japan will on Friday see final September numbers for machine tool orders, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The previous reading suggested a decline of 35.5 percent on year.

Singapore will release September numbers for industrial production; in August, industrial production was down 7.5 percent on month and 8.0 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
10-28-2019, 02:21 AM
Japan Producer Prices Hold Steady At 0.5%

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.5 percent on year in September, the Bank of Japan said on Monday - in line with expectations and unchanged from the August reading following a downward revision from 0.6 percent.

On a monthly basis, producer prices were flat following the 0.1 percent decline in the previous month.

Excluding international transportation, producer prices were up an annual 0.6 percent after gaining 0.5 percent a month earlier.

Among the individual components, prices were up for transportation, communications and leasing and rental. Prices were down for advertising and architectural services.

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IFX Gertrude
10-29-2019, 04:08 AM
Tokyo Overall Inflation Steady At 0.4% On Year

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Overall consumer prices in the Tokyo region of Japan were up 0.4 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Tuesday.

That was unchanged from the September reading, although it was well shy of forecasts for an increase of 0.7 percent.

Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, rose an annual 0.5 percent. That also was unchanged and shy of expect6ations for an increase of 0.7 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall Tokyo inflation was flat and core CPI was up 0.2 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
10-30-2019, 01:51 AM
Australia Consumer Prices Rise 1.7% On Year In Q3

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Consumer prices in Australia were up 1.7 percent on year in the third quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - in line with expectations and up from 1.6 percent in the previous three months.

On a quarterly basis, inflation was up 0.5 percent - again matching expectations and down from 0.6 percent in the three months prior.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean came in at 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.6 percent on year - both unchanged and as expected.

The RBA's weighted median was at 0.3 percent on quarter and 1.2 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
10-31-2019, 01:14 AM
Dollar Loses Ground Against Rivals As Fed Cuts Interest Rate

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The U.S. dollar was weak against most major currencies on Wednesday, weighed down by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.

The dollar index, which was moving along the flat line for much of the session till the Federal Reserve came out with its rate call, initially climbed higher after the Fed cut rates and signaled a pause in easing cycle.

However, the dollar retreated subsequently, falling from 98.00 to 97.50, netting a loss of 0.2%.

The Fed announced its widely expected to decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.5% to 1.75%.

The quarter point rate cut follows two matching moves at the Fed's meetings in September and July, which marked the first rate cuts in over a decade.

However, the Fed's accompanying statement removed a key line indicating the central bank would continue to "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion."

The line was included in each of the Fed's three previous statements and was seen as pointing toward a near-term rate cut.

The Fed said it would continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.

Against the euro, the dollar was quoting at 1.1147, compared to previous close of 1.1111.

Eurozone economic confidence eased to a near five-year low in October suggesting that the single currency bloc entered the fourth quarter on a weak footing.

The economic sentiment index dropped to 100.8 in October from 101.7 in the previous month, survey results from the European Commission showed.

The pound sterling was up at $1.2903, from Tuesday's close of $1.2868.

Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar was down slightly with a unit fetching 108.84 yen. On Tuesday, the Japanese currency had settled at 108.88 a dollar.

The Aussie was gaining nearly 0.5% at 0.6898

The dollar was down notably against Swiss franc and loonie as well. The dollar-franc pair was at 0.9895.

The dollar was quoting at 1.3163 against the loonie after the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged and downgraded its growth forecast for next two years amid worsening global economic conditions.

The BoC kept its key rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected.

The bank said that economic growth is likely to slow in the second half of this year, reflecting trade uncertainty, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter.

News are provided by
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IFX Gertrude
10-31-2019, 01:15 AM
Dollar Loses Ground Against Rivals As Fed Cuts Interest Rate

The U.S. dollar was weak against most major currencies on Wednesday, weighed down by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.

The dollar index, which was moving along the flat line for much of the session till the Federal Reserve came out with its rate call, initially climbed higher after the Fed cut rates and signaled a pause in easing cycle.

However, the dollar retreated subsequently, falling from 98.00 to 97.50, netting a loss of 0.2%.

The Fed announced its widely expected to decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.5% to 1.75%.

The quarter point rate cut follows two matching moves at the Fed's meetings in September and July, which marked the first rate cuts in over a decade.

However, the Fed's accompanying statement removed a key line indicating the central bank would continue to "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion."

The line was included in each of the Fed's three previous statements and was seen as pointing toward a near-term rate cut.

The Fed said it would continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.

Against the euro, the dollar was quoting at 1.1147, compared to previous close of 1.1111.

Eurozone economic confidence eased to a near five-year low in October suggesting that the single currency bloc entered the fourth quarter on a weak footing.

The economic sentiment index dropped to 100.8 in October from 101.7 in the previous month, survey results from the European Commission showed.

The pound sterling was up at $1.2903, from Tuesday's close of $1.2868.

Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar was down slightly with a unit fetching 108.84 yen. On Tuesday, the Japanese currency had settled at 108.88 a dollar.

The Aussie was gaining nearly 0.5% at 0.6898

The dollar was down notably against Swiss franc and loonie as well. The dollar-franc pair was at 0.9895.

The dollar was quoting at 1.3163 against the loonie after the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged and downgraded its growth forecast for next two years amid worsening global economic conditions.

The BoC kept its key rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected.

The bank said that economic growth is likely to slow in the second half of this year, reflecting trade uncertainty, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter.

News are provided by InstaForex

IFX Gertrude
11-04-2019, 05:31 AM
Australia Retail Sales Data On Tap For Monday

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Australia will on Monday release September figures for retail sales, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent on month, unchanged from the August ready. For the third quarter of 2019, sales are called higher by 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent in Q2.

Australia also will see October data for the job ads monitor from ANZ and the inflation forecast from TD Securities. In September, job ads were up 0.3 percent on month, while inflation was predicted to be higher by 0.1 percent on month and 1.5 percent on year.

Malaysia will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth 70.43 billion ringgit and exports were at 81.36 billion ringgit for a trade surplus of 10.92 billion ringgit.

Thailand will release October figure for consumer and producer prices. In September, overall inflation was up 0.1 percent on month and 0.3 percent on year, while core CPI rose 0.1 percent on month and 0.4 percent on year. Producer prices were flat on month and down 1.9 percent on year.

Finally, the markets in Japan are closed on Monday for Culture Day and will re-open on Tuesday.

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IFX Gertrude
11-05-2019, 03:57 AM
Dollar resists pressure, EUR/USD tends to rise

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The current week has begun quite calmly for the main world currency. The ISM report on the US manufacturing sector only caused a slight drawback. However, experts are confident in the stability of the US currency and the strengthening of its position. The ISM report, demonstrating the state of the manufacturing sector of the US economy, presented a real picture of what was happening, which did not please the experts too much. Although the ISM index was higher than the September 2019 indicator, it did not reach the expectations of analysts, remaining close to a ten-year low. According to statistics, US production, like imports, fell to 2009 lows. According to experts, these indicators indicate a high probability of further easing of the Federal Reserve policy. Many experts expected a stronger market reaction to the publication of a key US employment report. According to data presented last Friday, job growth slowed down a bit, but remained at an acceptable level (128 thousand instead of the forecasted 8590 thousand), while the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6%. Analysts also recorded an increase in average hourly wages of 0.2% instead of the expected 0.3%. Current data has confirmed a slowdown in the US economy, which is under severe pressure from prolonged trade wars. An additional confirmation of this fact was the fall in business activity in the manufacturing sector (ISM index) below the critical level of 50. The US dollar did not avoid the negative impact. In the chain of "American economy - US currency", it is a key link that accounts for the main blows. The greenback is actively opposing them, but remains under pressure, which intensifies with optimism in the markets. Note that trade disputes have always spurred the growth of the greenback, so the weakening of trade tension will contribute to the demand for other assets to the detriment of the US dollar. The U.S. administration is currently seeking to soften rhetoric, declaring optimism regarding negotiations between America and China. The White House is talking about a possible cancellation of tariffs for European cars. In such a situation, the EUR/USD pair may begin to sag. On the morning of Monday, November 4, it already showed a similar trend, trading near 1.11511.1152 marks.

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The downward trend caused concern among market participants, as a day earlier the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.11691.1170, the highs of August 2019.

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According to analysts, the pair is one step away from the key level of 1.1200. Overcoming this milestone, as in the case of the dollar index (DXY), is assessed by the market as a prerequisite for further growth. If this level is overcome, the EUR/USD pair will occupy high positions and maintain them until the end of 2019, experts said. The implementation of such a scenario will raise the pair almost to an unattainable height - up to 1.1400 and above. On Monday, before starting to rise, the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.11571.1158. Now the pair has slightly increased to 1,11591,1160.

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Experts rate high chances that the pair will continue the rally. To implement this scenario, a relatively calm external background is needed, that is, the absence of a hard Brexit, an escalation of the conflict between the US and the EU, as well as the stabilization of Washington-Beijing relations. In this case, the EUR/USD pair, having overcome the key barrier of 1,1200, may begin to move to 1.12601.1270. For this, the "bulls" will need to break through the resistance at the levels of 1.11751.1190. As for the current sentiment, analysts are confident that market players will seek to close long positions in the dollar. Long-term observations show that the US currency can withstand even the most unfavorable factors. Apart from market volatility and an unstable external background, these include mixed economic data on the US economy and the Fed's attempts to weaken the national currency. Nevertheless, the greenback can cope with the situation. Its strength allows it not to sag under the pressure of negative circumstances, experts conclude.

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At the time, the EUR / USD pair reached the level of 1.11651.1166, trying to exceed what was achieved.

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IFX Gertrude
11-06-2019, 04:36 AM
Bank Of Japan Minutes On Tap For Wednesday

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The Bank of Japan will on Wednesday release the minutes from its September 19 monetary policy meeting, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

At the meeting, the Policy Board of the BoJ voted 7-2 to maintain interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the bank. The bank said it will purchase government bonds so that the yield of 10-year JGBs will remain at around zero percent.

Japan also will see final October numbers for the services and composite PMIs from Jibun Bank; the previous scores were 50.3 and 49.8, respectively.

The central bank in Thailand will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates; the bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 1.50 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
11-07-2019, 03:16 AM
Australia Has A$7.180 Billion Trade Surplus In September

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Australia had a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$7.180 billion in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That handily exceeded forecasts for a surplus of A$5.050 billion following the upwardly revised A$6.617 billion surplus in the previous month (originally A$5.926 billion).

Exports were up A$1.452 billion or 3.0 percent on month to A$43.215 billion, while imports gained A$889 million or 3.0 percent on month to A$36.034 billion.

Net exports of goods under merchanting remained roughly steady at A$15 million.

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IFX Gertrude
11-08-2019, 01:55 AM
Japan Household Spending Jumps 9.5% On Year In September

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The average of household spending in Japan was up 9.5 percent on year in real terms in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - coming in at 300,609 yen.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 7.0 percent following the 1.0 percent gain in August.

The average of monthly income per household stood at 457,427 yen, down an annual 0.4 percent.

Individually, spending was up for food, housing, fuel, furniture, clothing, medical care, transportation and recreation.

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IFX Gertrude
11-11-2019, 04:27 AM
Japan Core Machinery Orders Fall Unexpectedly

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Japan core machinery orders declined unexpectedly in September, data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday.

Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of private capital investment, declined 2.9 percent month-on-month, following a 2.4 percent drop in August.

This was the third consecutive fall in orders. Orders were forecast to expand 0.9 percent.

By sector, orders in manufacturing declined 5.2 percent, while that in non-manufacturing grew 2.6 percent.

In the fourth quarter, core orders are forecast to grow 3.5 percent.

The continued fall in machinery orders suggests that the recent strength in capital goods shipments won't last, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The economist forecasts a 0.7 percent sequential drop in business investment in the fourth quarter. Investment growth is set to slow to 1.0 percent in 2020 from 1.8 percent this year.

On a yearly basis, core orders rose 5.1 percent, in contrast to August's 14.5 percent decrease and slower than the 8.1 percent increase in August.

The third quarter GDP data is due on November 14. The economy is forecast to grow 0.9 percent after rising 1.3 percent in the second quarter.

Elsewhere, data from Bank of Japan showed that bank lending grew at a steady pace of 2 percent in October.

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IFX Gertrude
11-12-2019, 03:38 AM
Dollar Exhibits Weakness Against Rivals

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The U.S. dollar exhibited weakness against most major currencies on Monday as traders looked for further developments on the trade front.

After some positive news on the U.S.-China trade front during the earlier part of the previous week, there was a setback of sorts on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump remarked that he had not made a decision on reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods.

Trump said over the weekend that China moved more slowly than he would have liked and that China very much wants to make a deal.

The dollar index declined to a low of 98.13 in early trades but edged up a bit to 98.22 as the session progressed. Still, it was trailing its previous close by about 0.14%.

Against the euro, the dollar shed about 0.12% at 1.1032 a euro.

Germany's wholesale prices declined at the fastest pace in more than three years in October, falling 2.3% year-on-year, after dropping by 1.9% a month earlier.

On a monthly basis, wholesale prices slid 0.1%, but slower than the 0.4% decrease logged in September. This was the fifth consecutive decrease.

Against pound sterling, the dollar weakened to 1.2853, from $1.2775 a unit of sterling on Friday evening.

U.K.'s Gross domestic product grew 0.3% sequentially in the third quarter after contracting 0.2% in the previous three months. However, this was weaker than the consensus of 0.4%. The Bank of England had projected a 0.4% growth for the third quarter.

On a yearly basis, GDP advanced 1%, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2010.

The Japanese Yen recovered to 109.05 a dollar, after having dropped to 109.29 yen a dollar earlier in the day.

The yen's earlier weakness was due to the Cabinet Office's data showing Japanese core machinery orders declining unexpectedly in September.

Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of private capital investment, declined 2.9% month-on-month, following a 2.4% drop in August. This was the third consecutive fall in orders. Orders were forecast to expand 0.9%.

The dollar was up against the Aussie with the Aussie-Dollar pair at 0.6851.

Against the loonie, the dollar was down slightly at 1.3226. Against Swiss franc, the dollar weakened to 0.9934, giving up about 0.4% from previous close.

Traders were reluctant to make significant moves as they looked ahead to President Donald Trump's speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday as well as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday.

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IFX Gertrude
11-13-2019, 12:41 AM
Dollar Edges Up Against Most Major Currencies

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The U.S. dollar held above the flat line right through the session on Tuesday. The focus was on President Donald Trump's speech at The Economic Club of New York.

The dollar index opened flat at 98.21 and edged higher gradually to 98.42 a little before noon, and spent the rest of the day moving around 98.30. Trump's speech provided no significant details on the state of trade talks between the U.S. and China. The President spent the bulk of his remarks touting the strength of the U.S. economy, crediting his policies cutting taxes and regulation for the strong growth seen in recent years.

Trump attacked the Federal Reserve and claimed the economy and the markets would be even stronger if the central bank would take his advice and slash interest rates further.

"But we all make mistakes, don't we?" Trump said in an apparent reference to his decision to nominate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump also briefly discussed the trade talks with China, claiming the Chinese are "dying to make a deal" and an agreement is "close."

The president said a significant phase one trade deal with China "could happen soon" but stressed that he would only accept an agreement that is good for U.S. companies and workers.

Trump later denied that his trade war with China is hurting industry or causing uncertainty and threatened further increases in tariffs if a deal is not reached.

Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to 1.1011, gaining 0.22%.

The Pound Sterling was down slightly against the dollar with a unit of sterling fetching $1.2848, compared to Monday's close of $1.2853.

The UK labor market remained weak in the third quarter as employment and vacancies declined notably ahead of general election.

The employment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 76% in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday. The ILO unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in the third quarter from 3.9% in the preceding period.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was slightly weak at 108.98 yen.

The Aussie shed ground against the dollar. The Aussie-Dollar pair was last seen hovering around 0.6840.

The loonie and Swiss franc were also weak against the greenback, with the respective pairs quoting at 1.3239 and 0.9929, respectively.

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IFX Gertrude
11-14-2019, 01:26 AM
Dollar Exhibits Mixed Trend Against Major Currencies

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The U.S. dollar turned in a mixed performance against major currencies on Wednesday, although the dollar index spent much of the session in positive territory, aided by positive comments about the state of the economy by the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Testifying before Congress, Powell reiterated that the central bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold in the near future.

Powell told members of the Joint Economic Committee that the Fed would leave rates at their current level unless there is a material change in the economic outlook.

"We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective," Powell said.

"Of course, if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly," he added. "Policy is not on a preset course."

The Fed chief noted that noteworthy risks to the outlook remain, citing sluggish growth abroad and uncertainty about trade amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

The dollar index was last seen at 98.37, up from previous close of 98.31. The dollar moved in a very narrow band between 98.29 and 98.45.

Against the Euro, the dollar was down slightly at 1.1003, recovering from a low of 1.1022.

The Pound Sterling was up marginally against the dollar, at $1.2847, after moving between $1.2822 and $1.2863.

Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar was down at 108.84 yen, compared to 108.84 yen on Tuesday.

The dollar was up against the aussie with the AUD-USD pair at 0.6837.

Against the loonie, the dollar was gaining at 1.3254, and against Swiss franc it was down notably at 0.9903.

According to the data released by the Labor Department, U.S. consumer prices rose by slightly more than anticipated in the month of October.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.4% in October after coming in unchanged in September. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3%.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices edged up by 0.2% in October after a 0.1% uptick in September. The uptick in core prices matched economist estimates.

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IFX Yvonne
11-15-2019, 06:31 AM
Japan Industrial Production Rises In September

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Japan's industrial production grew more than initially estimated in September, final data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Friday.

Industrial production rose 1.7 percent month-on-month in September. According to the initial estimate, production had increased 1.4 percent.

On a monthly basis, shipments gained 1.5 percent in September instead of 1.3 percent initially estimated.

Meanwhile, inventory dropped 1.4 percent compared to the initial estimate of 1.6 percent decrease and the inventory ratio fell 1.9 percent versus prior estimate of 2.4 percent drop.

On a year-on-year basis, industrial production grew 1.3 percent in September. The initial estimate showed an annual growth of 1.1 percent.

Further, data showed that capacity utilization rose 1.0 percent on month and rose 0.2 percent from a year ago.

IFX Gertrude
11-18-2019, 02:43 AM
Japan Housing Loan Data Due On Monday

Japan is on Monday scheduled to release Q3 numbers for housing loans, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In the three months prior, housing loans were up 2.2 percent on year.

Japan also will see October figures for condominium sales; in September, sales plummeted 30.0 percent on year.

Indonesia will release October figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In September, imports were worth $14.26 billion and exports were at $14.10 billion for a trade deficit of $160.5 million.

Singapore will provide October trade data; in September, imports were worth SGD39.48 billion and exports were at SGD43.51 billion for a trade surplus of SGD4.03 billion.

Thailand will release Q3 numbers for gross domestic product; in the three months prior, GDP was up 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.3 percent on year.

Hong Kong sill see October figures for unemployment; in September, the jobless rate was 2.9 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
11-19-2019, 02:20 AM
New Zealand Producer Price Outputs +1.0% On Quarter

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Producer price outputs in New Zealand were up 1.0 percent on quarter and 1.8 percent on year in the third quarter of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday.

Input prices rose 0.9 percent on quarter and 2.1 percent on year, while capital goods prices advanced 0.8 percent on quarter and 2.7 percent on year.

Prices paid by farmers gained 0.9 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year, while salaries and wages rose 0.8 percent on quarter and 2.4 percent on year.

Prices paid by consumers were up 0.7 percent on quarter and 1.5 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
11-20-2019, 12:57 AM
Japan Trade Data On Tap For Wednesday

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Japan will on Wednesday release October figures for imports, exports and trade balance, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Imports are expected to plummet 15.4 percent on year after dipping 1.5 percent in September. Exports are called lower by an annual 7.5 percent after falling 5.2 percent in the previous month. The trade balance is tipped to show a surplus of 301.0 billion yen following the 123.0 billion yen shortfall a month earlier.

Australia will see October results for skilled vacancies and for the leading economic index from Westpac. In September, vacancies fell 0.7 percent on month and the economic index eased 0.08 percent on month.

China will release prime rate numbers for its one-year and five-year loans. The one-year is called steady at 4.2 percent, while the five-year is expected to rise to 4.9 percent from 4.85 percent previously.

Malaysia will provide October numbers for producer prices; in September, inflation was flat on month and up 1.1 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
11-21-2019, 12:56 AM
New Zealand Credit Card Spending Data Due On Thursday

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New Zealand will on Thursday release October numbers for credit card spending, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In September, electronic spending was down 0.1 percent on month and up 4.8 percent on year.

Japan will see September results for its all industry activity index and October figures for supermarket sales and machine tool orders.

The all industry activity index is expected to rise 1.5 percent on month following the flat reading in August. Supermarket sales were up 2.8 percent on year in September and machine tool orders plummeted an annual 37.4 percent.

The central bank in Indonesia is scheduled to wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates. The bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 5.00 percent.

Hong Kong will release October numbers for consumer prices; in September, overall inflation was up 3.2 percent on year.

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IFX Yvonne
11-22-2019, 08:14 AM
Yen Off Lows Against Some Majors

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The Japanese yen came off its early lows against some of its major counterparts in late Asian deals on Friday.

The yen rose to a 2-day high 109.31 against the franc, from an early low of 109.42.

The yen recovered to 108.61 against the greenback and 81.74 against the loonie, from its early 2-day low of 108.71 and a 3-day low of 81.90, respectively. Reversing from an early low of 73.86 against the aussie, the yen bounced off to 73.70.

The next possible resistance for the yen is around 108.00 against the greenback, 107.00 against the franc, 80.00 against the loonie and 70.5 against the aussie.

IFX Gertrude
11-25-2019, 01:20 AM
Singapore Inflation Data Due On Monday

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Singapore is on Monday scheduled to release October figures for consumer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In September, consumer prices were flat on month and up 0.5 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
11-26-2019, 01:40 AM
New Zealand Retail Sales Data Due On Tuesday

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New Zealand will on Tuesday release Q3 numbers for retail sales, setting the pace for a modest day in Asia-Pacific economic activity. Sales are expected to add 0.5 percent on quarter after rising 0.2 percent in the three months prior.

Japan will see October figures for producer prices, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 1.8 percent on year - up from 0.5 percent in September.

Hong Kong will release October numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. In September, imports were worth HKD379.33 billion and exports were at HKD347.69 billion for a trade deficit of HKD31.64 billion.

Singapore will provide October figures for industrial production; in September, production was up 3.7 percent on month and 0.1 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
11-27-2019, 03:17 AM
New Zealand Has NZ$1.0 Billion Trade Deficit In October

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New Zealand had a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$1.0 billion in October, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.

That was in line with expectations following the NZ$1.242 billion shortfall in September.

Imports were down 1.4 percent on year to NZ$6.0 billion - again matching forecasts after showing NZ$5.71 billion in the previous month.

Exports climbed an annual 4.3 percent to NZ$5.0 billion, in line with expectations and up from NZ$4.47 billion a month earlier.

The annual trade deficit was NZ$5.0 billion in October 2019, down from NZ$5.8 billion in the year ended October 2018.

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IFX Gertrude
11-28-2019, 02:23 AM
Australia Capex Slips 0.2% In Q3

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Private capital expenditure in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - worth A$29.413 billion.

That missed expectations for a flat reading following the 0.6 percent drop in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, capex sank 1.3 percent.

Capex for buildings and structures rose 2.7 percent on quarter and fell 0.3 percent on year to A$15.853 billion, while capex for equipment, plant and machinery sank 3.5 percent on quarter and 2.4 percent on year to A$13.560 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
11-29-2019, 05:21 AM
UK GfK Consumer Confidence Remains Stable In November

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UK consumer sentiment remained unchanged in November, survey results from the market research group GfK showed Friday.

The consumer sentiment index held steady at -14. The score matched economists' expectations.

"In the face of Brexit and election uncertainty, consumers are clearly in a 'wait-and-see' mode," Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said.

"The general election is potentially an opportunity to move us out of the doldrums - but for this to happen there must be a clear result," Staton added. "A hung parliament could be very damaging for consumer confidence and would surely deepen the obvious malaise that we see month after month."

Among sub-indices, the index measuring changes in personal finances over the last twelve months decreased one point to zero. The forecast for personal finances was unchanged at +1 in November.

The measure for the past general economic situation of the country fell one point to -34. Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months gained three points to -34.

The major purchase index dropped one point to zero in November. Likewise, the savings index decreased three points to +18.

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IFX Yvonne
12-02-2019, 07:36 AM
Ireland Manufacturing Sector Deteriorates In November

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Ireland's manufacturing sector contracted in November, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Monday.

The seasonally adjusted AIB factory Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 49.7 in November from 50.7 in October. However, any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

Inflows of total new business increased in November but the rate of expansion eased slightly from the previous month, while export sales declined further.

Employment fell for the first time since September 2016 and stocks of finished goods increased for the sixth month in a row.

Purchasing activity fell in November for the sixth time in the past seven months amid a decline in per-production inventories.

Backlogs decreased further in November, with the rate of backlog depletion quickened from October.

Input price inflation was the sharpest in seven months, while the rate of output charge inflation eased in November.

Sentiment among manufacturers improved to the highest level in five months in November, the survey showed.

IFX Gertrude
12-03-2019, 04:09 AM
Australia Rate Decision On Tap For Tuesday

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The Reserve Bank of Australia will on Tuesday wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at the record low 0.75 percent.

Australia also will see Q3 numbers for current account; in the three months prior, the current account surplus was A$5.9 billion.

Japan will provide November numbers for monetary base; in October, the base was up 3.1 percent on year.

Thailand will release November numbers for consumer and producer prices. In October, overall consumer prices were down 0.16 percent on month and up 0.7 percent on year, while core CPI rose 0.04 percent on month and 0.4 percent on year. Producer prices fell 0.4 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year.

News are provided by
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IFX Gertrude
12-04-2019, 01:25 AM
Hong Kong PMI Continues To Tumble - IHH

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Hong Kong's private sector continued to contract in November, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from IHH revealed on Wednesday with a 16-year low PMI score of 38.5.

That's down from 39.3 in October and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line that separates expansion from contraction.

The November reading saw the sharpest decline in business activity in survey history, while the fall in new business was the sharpest since 2008. Business confidence remained close to a record low.

Political unrest continued to disrupt the functioning of businesses, according to survey respondents.

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IFX Gertrude
12-05-2019, 04:12 AM
Australia Trade Balance Data Due On Thursday

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Australia will on Thursday release October numbers for trade balance and retail sales, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The trade balance is expected to show a surplus of A$6.50 billion, down from A$7.180 billion in September. Retail sales are called higher by 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent in the previous month.

New Zealand will provide Q3 numbers for the volume of all building, with forecasts suggested to show an increase of 1.0 percent on quarter following the 1.5 percent contraction in the three months prior. South Korea will see October results for current account; in September, the surplus was $66.89 billion.

The Philippines will release November numbers for consumer prices and Q3 data for unemployment. In October, inflation was up 0.2 percent on month and 0.8 percent on year, while core CPI was up 2.6 percent on year. The jobless rate in Q2 was 5.4 percent, with a participation rate of 62.1 percent.

Finally, the markets in Thailand are closed on Thursday in observance of late king Bhumibol's birthday and will re-open on Friday.

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IFX Gertrude
12-06-2019, 12:33 AM
Dollar Exhibits Weakness Against Most Rivals


The U.S. dollar was mostly subdued against major currencies on Thursday, amid a slew of economic data from across the globe and as traders awaited the outcome of the OPEC meet in Vienna.

Conflicting reports on U.S.-China trade front weighed as well on the U.S. currency.

Data from the Commerce Department showed U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $47.2 billion in October from a revised $51.1 billion in September. Economists had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $48.7 billion from the $52.5 billion originally reported for the previous month.

The lower deficit was due to a 1.7% drop in imports at $254.3 billion. Exports were down 0.2% to $207.1 billion in October.

Another report from the Commerce Department said new orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased in line with economist estimates in the month of October, rising by 0.3% after falling by a revised 0.8% in September.

Economists had expected orders to rise by 0.3% compared to the 0.6% drop originally reported for the previous month.

Orders for durable goods climbed by 0.5% compared to the previously reported 0.6% increase, while orders for non-durable goods came in unchanged.

Data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims slipped to 203,000 in the week ended November 30th, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 213,000. The drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 215,000.

The dollar index opened at 97.59 and eased to a low of 97.36 a little past noon. It edged up to 97.44 subsequently but dropped to 97.39 later on, losing about 0.28%.

Against the Euro, the dollar was down at $1.1106, retreating from $1.1078.

The Eurozone economy grew as initially estimated in the third quarter, revised data from Eurostat showed. Gross domestic product grew 0.2% from the second quarter, when the economy expanded at the same rate.

On a yearly basis, GDP growth came in at 1.2%, in line with the previous estimate and the second quarter growth.

The pound sterling was stronger by more than 0.4% with a unit of sterling fetching $1.3163, as against $1.3098 earlier in the session.

Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar was stronger at 108.79, compared to previous close of 108.65 yen a dollar.

The loonie was up notably with the dollar-loonie pair at 1.3175. Canada's trade deficit narrowed to C$1.08 billion in October 2019 from an upwardly revised C$ 1.23 billion in September. Economists had expected a trade deficit of C$1.37 billion.

Against the Aussie, the dollar was gaining in strength with the pair trading at 0.6835.

The Swiss franc was up 0.1% against the dollar, with the dollar-franc pair at 0.9875.

Traders were also reacting to news that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has asked the chairmen of the House committees investigating President Donald Trump to proceed with articles of impeachment.

Pelosi accused Trump of abusing his power for his own benefit by withholding military aid from Ukraine in exchange for an announcement of an investigation into his political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.

On the trade front, a Wall Street Journal report indicates the U.S. and China are at odds over the size of Chinese agricultural purchases.


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IFX Yvonne
12-09-2019, 07:30 AM
Japan GDP Revised To 1.8% In Q3


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Japan's gross domestic product was bumped all the way up to a seasonally adjusted annualized 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2019, the Cabinet Office said in Monday's revision.

That was a sharp upward move from the 0.2 percent gain originally reported last month for Q3.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP was moved up to 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent in the preliminary reading.

Nominal GDP was knocked up to 0.6 percent on quarter from 0.3 percent, while the GDP deflator was unrevised at 0.6 percent.

IFX Gertrude
12-10-2019, 02:44 AM
Australia House Prices Climb 2.4% In Q3

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Residential property prices in Australia were up 2.4 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That beat expectations for an increase of 1.5 percent following the 0.7 percent decline in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, house prices fell 3.7 percent - again topping forecasts for a decline of 4.6 percent following the 7.4 percent tumble in the three months prior.

House prices were up in Sydney (+3.6 percent), Melbourne (+3.6 percent), Brisbane (+0.7 percent) and Hobart (+1.3 percent), and fell in Perth (-1.2 percent), Adelaide (-0.3 percent), Canberra (-0.5 percent) and Darwin (-1.2 percent) this quarter.

Prices fell in Darwin (-5.4 percent), Sydney (-4.6 percent), Perth (-4.6 percent), Melbourne (-3.5 percent), Brisbane (-2.6 percent), Canberra (-1.4 percent) and Adelaide (-1.0 percent), and rose in Hobart (+2.1 percent) over the last twelve months.

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IFX Gertrude
12-11-2019, 02:06 AM
Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.2% On Month In November

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.2 percent on month in November, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday.

That beat expectations for an increase of 0.1 percent following the 1.1 percent drop in October.

On a yearly basis, producer prices added 0.1 percent - again exceeding expectations for a flat reading following the 0.4 percent decline in the previous month.

Export prices were up 0.2 percent on month and down 5.9 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices rose 0.2 percent on month and tumbled 11.2 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
12-12-2019, 01:29 AM
Japan Core Machine Orders Tumble 6.0% In October

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The total value of core machine orders in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 6.0 percent on month in October, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 798.8 billion yen.

That missed forecasts for an increase of 0.7 percent following the 2.9 percent decline in September.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders sank 6.1 percent - again missing expectations for a drop of 1.9 percent following the 5.1 percent jump in the previous month.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by 5.2 percent on month in October.

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IFX Gertrude
12-13-2019, 01:05 AM
BoJ Tankan Survey On Tap For Friday

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The Bank of Japan will on Friday see Q4 results for its quarterly Tankan Survey of business sentiment, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The large manufacturers index is expected to see a score of +3, down from +5 in Q3. The outlook is expected to rise to +4 from +2. All industry capex is expected to add 6.0 percent in Q4, slowing from 6.6 percent in the previous three months.

Japan also will see final October figures for industrial production, with the previous reading suggesting a decline of 4.2 percent on month and 7.4 percent on year.

Hong Kong will release Q3 figures for industrial production; in Q2, production was down 0.7 percent on quarter and up 0.4 percent on year.

Malaysia will provide September numbers for unemployment; in August, the jobless rate was 3.3 percent and the participation rate was 68.7 percent.

News are provided by
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IFX Gertrude
12-16-2019, 02:04 AM
China Data On Tap For Monday

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China will release a raft of data on Monday, setting the pace for a busy day in Asia-Pacific economic activity. On tap are November numbers for industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, unemployment and new home prices.

Industrial production is expected to add 5.0 percent on year, up from 4.7 percent in October. Retail sales are tipped to gain an annual 7.6 percent, up from 7.2 percent in the previous month. FAI is called steady at 5.2 percent. The jobless rate in October was 5.1 percent, while home prices rose an annual 0.5 percent.

Japan will see October figures for its tertiary industry index and preliminary December readings for the manufacturing, services and composite PMIs from Nikkei and Jibun Bank.

The tertiary industry index is tipped to slid 3.6 percent on month after rising 1.8 percent in September. The manufacturing PMI had a score of 48.9 in November, while the services index was at 50.3 and the composite was at 49.8.

New Zealand will provide November numbers for its Performance of Services Index; in October, the index score was 55.4.

Indonesia will release November data for imports, exports and trade balance. In October, imports were worth $14.77 billion and exports were at $14.93 billion for a trade surplus of $161.3 million

News are provided by
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IFX Gertrude
12-17-2019, 02:17 AM
Australia Home Loans Rise 2.0% In October

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The total number of home loans issued in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 2.0 percent on month in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday - worth A$18.21 billion.

Loans for owner occupied housing rose 2.2 percent to A$13.11 billion, while investment loans gained 1.4 percent to A$5.10 billion.

On a yearly basis, overall loans gained 0.9 percent, while owner occupied loans jumped 5.7 percent and investment loans dropped 9.7 percent. Personal fixed term loans were up 3.1 percent on month and down 9.4 percent on year to A$1.73 billion.

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IFX Yvonne
12-18-2019, 07:42 AM
Euro Mixed Following German PPI


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After the release of German producer price index at 2.00 am ET Wednesday, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While the euro fell against the pound, it changed little against the rest of major counterparts.

The euro was trading at 1.1138 against the greenback, 121.90 against the yen, 1.0926 against the franc and 0.8490 against the pound around 2:02 am ET.

IFX Gertrude
12-19-2019, 12:59 AM
Australia Jobless Rate Falls To 5.2% In November

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The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was beneath expectations for 5.3 percent, which would have been unchanged from the October reading.

The Australian economy added 39,900 jobs last month to 12,954,400, blowing away expectations for an increase of 15,000 jobs following the loss of 19,000 jobs a month earlier.

Full-time employment increased by 4,200 to 8,837,300 people and part-time employment increased by 35,700 to 4,117,200 people.

The participation rate remained steady at 66.0 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
12-20-2019, 01:03 AM
Dollar Stays Subdued Amid Impeachment News, Mixed Economic Data

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The U.S. dollar recovered well after a weak start on Thursday, but swung between gains and losses till the end of the day as traders looked ahead to the crucial GDP data, due on Friday. The economic data released today turned out to be a mixed bag.

The impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump made an impact as well on the currency.

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump on grounds of misusing his powers and obstructing the congressional probe into his dealings with Ukraine.

Donald Trump becomes the third US president to be impeached by the House of Representatives, after the impeachments of Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson.

Trump will now face a Senate trial next month.

Republicans currently hold a 53 to 45 majority in the Senate, with two Democratic-leaning independents, and removing Trump from office would require a two-thirds vote in favor.

Several Senate Republicans have already indicated they will not vote to remove Trump from office even before the Senate holds its trial on the House charges.

In economic news, the Labor Department's data showed initial jobless claims pulled back in the week ended December 14th. The report said initial jobless claims fell to 234,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 252,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 225,000.

A report from the Federal Reserve said Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity was nearly flat in the month of December, with the bank's diffusion index for current general activity tumbling to 0.3 in December from 10.4 in November. Economists had expected the index to dip to 8.0.

With the much bigger than expected decrease, the Philly Fed Index slumped to its lowest reading in six months.

A report released by the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales tumbled by 1.7% to an annual rate of 5.35 million in November after jumping by 1.5% to a revised 5.44 million in October.

Economists had expected existing home sales to dip by 0.4% to a rate of 5.44 million from the 5.46 million originally reported for the previous month.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index was unchanged in November after dipping by 0.2% in both September and October. Economists had expected the index to inch up by 0.1%.

The dollar index, which declined to 97.22 early on in the day, rose to 97.49 by late morning, but retreated to 97.40 later on in the day, turning flat.

Against the Euro, the dollar was at $1.1122 at close, and edged down a bit to $1.1126 subsequently.

The Pound Sterling settled at $1.3010, after trading about $1.3100 earlier in the day.

The Japanese Yen strengthened to around 109.20 a dollar, from a low of 109.60 a dollar, and later eased a bit to 109.30 yen, but still held in positive territory.

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IFX Yvonne
12-23-2019, 04:35 AM
Australia Private Sector Credit Gains 0.1% In November

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Private sector credit in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on month in November, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Monday.

That was unchanged from the October reading but misses forecasts for an increase of 0.2 percent.

On a yearly basis, credit rose 2.3 percent - also shy of estimates for 2.4 percent and down from 2.5 percent in the previous month.

Housing credit was up 0.2 percent on month and 2.9 percent on year, while personal credit fell 0.5 percent on month and 4.9 percent on year and business credit rose 0.2 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year.

Broad money gained 0.3 percent on month and 4.4 percent on year.

IFX Yvonne
12-26-2019, 09:14 AM
Turkish Manufacturing Confidence Improves For Third Month

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Turkey's manufacturing confidence improved for a third straight month in December to its strongest level in eight months, while capacity utilization eased slightly, survey data from the central bank showed on Thursday.

The manufacturing confidence index rose to 103.6 from 102 in November. The reading was the highest since April, when the score was 105.5.

A confidence reading above 100 suggests that business leaders remain optimistic regarding the outlook for the economy. Factories were optimistic regarding production, order book levels, and employment over the next three months.

Separate data from the central bank showed that the manufacturing capacity utilization rate eased to 77 percent in December from 77.2 percent in November. In October, the rate was 76.4 percent.


*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

IFX Yvonne
12-27-2019, 07:35 AM
Japan Retail Sales Rise 4.5% In November

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Retail sales in Japan were up a seasonally adjusted 4.5 percent on month in November, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Friday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 5.0 percent following the 14.2 percent plunge in October.

On a yearly basis, retail sales sank 2.1 percent - again missing forecasts for a drop of 1.7 percent following the 7.0 percent slide in the previous month.

Sales from large retailers fell an annual 1.8 percent, beating expectations for a drop of 1.9 percent following the 8.2 percent drop a month earlier.

IFX Gertrude
01-06-2020, 01:57 AM
Singapore PMI Improves To 51.0 In December

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The private sector in Singapore continued to expand in December, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from HIS Healthcare showed on Monday with a PMI score of 51.0.

That's up from 50.4 in November, and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, firmer demand drove output higher for the first time since July - although weakness persisted across international markets as experts fell.

Business confidence slid to a three-year low.

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IFX Gertrude
01-07-2020, 02:01 AM
Japan Monetary Base +3.2% On Year In December

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The monetary base in Japan was up 3.2 percent on year in December, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - coming in at 512.776 trillion yen.

That's down from 3.3 percent in November.

Banknotes in circulation rose an annual 2.1 percent, while coins in circulation gained 2.2 percent. Current account balances advanced 3.5 percent, including a 3.0 percent increase in reserve balances.

The adjusted monetary base fell 2.7 percent on year to 517.386 trillion yen.

For the fourth quarter of 2019, the monetary base was up 3.2 percent, unchanged from the three months prior.

For all of 2019, the base gained 3.6 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
01-08-2020, 01:48 AM
Australia Construction Sector Sinks Deeper Into Contraction

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The construction sector in Australia continued to contract in December, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group revealed on Wednesday with a six-and-a-half-year low PMI score of 38.9.

That's down from 40 in November and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Overall activity, new orders and supplier deliveries all grew substantially weaker to fuel the overall index decline.

"Australia's construction sector ended 2019 on a low note with activity, employment and new orders all falling in December. The performance of the engineering construction sector slumped further, declining at the most precipitous rate in more than a decade. Commercial construction and apartment building activity also ended the year heading lower," Ai Group Head of Policy Peter Burn said.

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IFX Gertrude
01-09-2020, 02:34 AM
China Inflation Data Due On Thursday

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China will on Thursday release December numbers for consumer and producer prices, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Consumer prices are expected to rise 4.7 percent on year, up from 4.5 percent in November. Producer prices are called lower by an annual 0.4 percent after sliding 1.4 percent in the previous month.

China also will see new loan data for December, with forecasts suggesting a total of 1,250 billion yuan - down from 1,390.0 billion in November.

Australia will provide November numbers for trade balance, with forecasts suggesting a surplus of A$4.10 billion - down from A$4.502 billion in October. Imports were worth A$36.25 billion and exports were at A$40.75 billion in October.

New Zealand will see December figures for the commodity price index from ANZ; in November, the index was up 4.3 percent.

The Philippines will provide November numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. In October, imports were worth $9.57 billion and exports were at $6.32 billion for a trade deficit of $3.25 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
01-10-2020, 03:54 AM
Japan Leading Index Data Due On Friday

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Japan will on Friday see preliminary November numbers for its leading and coincident indexes, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The leading index is tipped to show a score of 90.9, down from 91.6 in October. The coincident is pegged at 95.2, down barely from 92.3 in the previous month.

Japan also will see November figures for household spending, with forecasts suggesting a decline of 2.0 percent on year following the 5.1 percent decline a month earlier.

Australia will provide November numbers for retail sales, with forecasts calling for a gain of 0.4 percent on month following the flat reading in October.

Malaysia will release November data for industrial and manufacturing production; in October, they were up an annual 0.3 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

Singapore will provide November numbers for retail sales; in October, sales were down 2.2 percent on month and 4.3 percent on year.

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IFX Yvonne
01-13-2020, 07:16 AM
Malaysia Jobless Rate Steady In November

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Malaysia's unemployment rate remained stable in November, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Monday.

The jobless rate was 3.2 percent in November, the same as seen in October. In the same period last year, the unemployment rate was 3.3 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, jobless rate rose marginally to 3.3 percent in November from 3.2 percent in October.

The number of unemployed increased to 513,900 in November from 512,100 in the previous month.

The number of employed increased to 15.31 million in November from 15.26 million in the prior month.

IFX Gertrude
01-14-2020, 02:53 AM
New Zealand Building Permits Sink 8.5% In November

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The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand tumbled a seasonally adjusted 8.5 percent on month in November, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - standing at 3,204.

That followed the downwardly revised 1.3 percent decline in October (originally -1.1 percent).

Individually, permits were issued for 1,980 stand-alone houses, 722 townhouses, 291 apartments and 211 retirement village units.

In the year ended November 2019, the actual number of new dwellings consented was 37,010, up 13 percent from the November 2018 year.

The annual value of non-residential building work consented was NZ$7.4 billion, up 4.9 percent from the November 2018 year.

By region, the numbers of new dwellings consented in the year ended November 2019 (compared with the November 2018 year) were: 14,866 in Auckland - up 16 percent; 4,176 in Waikato - up 13 percent; 3,036 in Wellington - up 11 percent; 5,849 in rest of North Island - up 6.9 percent; 5,310 in Canterbury - up 14 percent; and 3,772 in rest of South Island - up 10 percent.

In the year ended November 2019, non-residential building consents totaled NZ$7.4 billion, up 4.9 percent from the November 2018 year.

In the November 2019 year, the non-residential building types with the highest values were: education buildings - NZ$1.0 billion (down 1.5 percent); shops, restaurants, and bars - NZ$1.0 billion (down 5.4 percent); and offices, administration, and public transport buildings - NZ$981 million (up 6.3 percent).

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IFX Gertrude
01-15-2020, 03:25 AM
Japan M2 Money Stock Steady At 2.7% In December

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The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.7 percent on year in December, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday - coming in at 1,041.6 trillion yen.

That follows the 2.7 percent increase in November.

The M3 money stock was up an annual 2.3 percent at 1,374.5 trillion yen following the 2.2 percent gain in the previous month.

The L money stock climbed 2.7 percent at 1,833.6 trillion yen, accelerating from the 2.4 percent gain a month earlier.

For the fourth quarter of 2019, M2 was up 2.6 percent, M3 was up 2.2 percent and L also rose 2.3 percent.

For all of 2019, M2 gained 2.4 percent, M3 added 2.1 percent and L rose 1.9 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
01-16-2020, 01:51 AM
Japan Core Machine Orders Surge 18.0% In November

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Core machine orders in Japan jumped a seasonally adjusted 18.0 percent on month, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 942.7 billion yen.

That blew past expectations for an increase of 2.9 percent following the 6.0 percent slide in October.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders climbed 5.3 percent - again exceeding expectations for a decline of 5.3 percent following the 6.1 percent fall in the previous month.

Manufacturing orders rose 0.6 percent on month and lost 12.8 percent on year, while non-manufacturing orders surged 27.8 percent on month and 22.5 percent on year. Government orders dropped 8.7 percent on month and gained 0.2 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
01-17-2020, 01:15 AM
New Zealand Manufacturing PMI Slips Into Contraction

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The manufacturing sector in New Zealand fell into contraction ion December, the latest survey from BuzinessNZ showed on Friday with a PMI score of 49.3.

That's down from the downwardly revised 51.2 reading in November (originally 51.4) and it slips beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

This was a second consecutive decrease in activity, and the lowest result since September.

Among the individual components, production and employment continued to contract, while new orders and deliveries remained in expansion but at a slower pace. Only finished stocks picked up steam.

"The December result was disappointing," BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said. "After a couple of months flirting with positivity, the PMI dipped back just below the breakeven line again."

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IFX Gertrude
01-20-2020, 01:16 AM
Japan Rate Decision On Tap For Monday

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The Bank of Japan will on Monday wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The BoJ is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at -0.1 percent, although it may introduce other means of stimulus.

Japan also will see final November numbers for industrial production; the previous reading suggested a decline of 0.9 percent on month and 8.1 percent on year, while capacity utilization also fell 4.5 percent on month.

China will announce January numbers for loan prime rates. The one-year loan prime rate is called at 4.1 percent, down from 4.2 percent in December. The five-year loan prime rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.8 percent.

The central bank in Indonesia will conclude its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates. The bank is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 5.00 percent.

Hong Kong will see December data for unemployment; in November, the jobless rate was 3.2 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
01-21-2020, 02:10 AM
Gold: entering new frontiers postponed, but not canceled

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According to Credit Suisse experts, gold has good prospects for growth in 2020.

"Despite the positive sentiment among investors amid rising stock markets, there is still uncertainty over the trade conflict between the US and China. Brexit also brings confusion. The global economy is on the verge. The situation may change in a negative direction at any moment," they said.

Berenberg Bank has adjusted its forecast for the gold exchange rate for 2020 in the direction of its increase.

According to the bank's calculations, the average cost of precious metals this year will be $1,525 per ounce, which is slightly lower than the current level - $ 1,560, but almost 3% higher than the previous forecast of the financial institute ($1,482 per ounce).

Analysts at Berenberg Bank point to the volatile geopolitical situation in the world, which is the main driver of the growth of the gold exchange rate. This includes trade negotiations between the United States and China, Britain's secession from the European Union, as well as tensions between Washington and Tehran.

The bank believes that rising inflation in the United States could create conditions for a further reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and this, in turn, will support gold.

"Ultimately, inflation in the United States will begin to grow amid an increase in the state budget deficit and the country's trade balance, which can happen very quickly or in ten years. But in any case, it is only a matter of time. If you look at the geopolitical struggle, how many companies want to accumulate dollars? Gold in this case becomes a favorite," Saxo Bank said.

TD Securities experts believe that the price of gold will no longer fall below $1,550 per ounce, even if the military-political conflict between the US and Iran weakens, and investors are again interested in risky assets.

"We expect that in the near future precious metals will be traded in a narrow range. The mark of $1,600 per ounce is also becoming real, as the fundamental drivers remain valid. They will push the cost of precious metals up. The closer the US presidential election, the more expensive gold will become," they said.

According to bank estimates, by the end of this year, an ounce of precious metal will cost $1,650.

The hedge fund Bridgewater Associates predicts that gold will be able to gain a foothold above the level of $1,540 per ounce, and in case of escalation of political conflicts, the cost of precious metal may even exceed $2,000 per ounce.

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IFX Gertrude
01-22-2020, 01:55 AM
South Korea GDP Accelerates 1.2% In Q4

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South Korea's gross domestic product climbed a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2019, the Bank of Korea said in Wednesday's preliminary reading.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 1.0 percent and accelerated from the 0.4 percent gain in the three months prior.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased by 0.5 percent compared to the previous quarter.

On the expenditure side, private consumption was up by 0.7 percent, as expenditures on durable goods (e.g. motor vehicles) and services (e.g. food, recreation and culture) increased.

Government consumption rose by 2.6 percent, with increased expenditures on goods and health care benefits.

Construction investment expanded by 6.3 percent, as building construction and civil engineering increased.

Facilities investment grew by 1.5 percent, led by the growth of investment in machinery (e.g. semiconductor manufacturing equipment).

Exports fell by 0.1 percent, due to a decrease in transportation service despite an increase in machinery. Imports remained the same compared to the previous quarter, owing to decreased expenditure of resident households abroad despite increased imports of motor vehicles.

On the production side, agriculture, forestry and fishing increased by 2.2 percent, mainly due to increased crop yields and fishery production. Manufacturing rose by 1.6 percent, mainly due to an increase in machinery and equipment.

Electricity, gas and water supply rose by 3.9 percent, due to an increase in electricity.

Construction expanded by 4.9 percent, owing to increases in building construction and civil engineering.

Services grew by 0.7 percent, led by wholesale & retail trade, accommodation and food services, and human health and social work.

On a yearly basis, GDP advanced 2.2 percent in Q4, exceeding expectations for 2.0 percent - which would have been unchanged from the previous three months.

For all of 2019, South Korea's GDP was up 2.0 percent on year.

On the expenditure side, while the growth of government consumption expanded, construction and facilities investment contracted as private consumption expenditure and export growth slowed.

On the production side, the growth of manufacturing and services slowed down and construction continued to decline. Real GDI fell by 0.4 percent. As the terms of trade worsened due to factors such as a decrease in semiconductor prices, real GDI fell short of real GDP.

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IFX Gertrude
01-23-2020, 01:43 AM
Australia Unemployment Data On Tap For Thursday

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Australia will on Thursday release December data for unemployment, highlighting a busy day in Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The Australian economy is expected to add 11,000 jobs following the addition of 39,900 jobs in November, while the jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 5.2 percent. The participation rate is called unchanged at 66.0 percent.

Australia also will see the inflation forecast for January; in December, the forecast suggest an increase of 4.0 percent on year.

Japan will provide December numbers for import, exports and trade balance. Imports are tipped to slide 2.6 percent on year after plummeting 15.7 percent in November. Exports are called lower by an annual 4.2 percent after sinking 7.9 percent in the previous month. The trade balance is expected to show a deficit of 170.0 billion yen following the 82.1 billion yen shortfall a month earlier.

Japan also will see November numbers for its all industry activity index and for its leading and coincident indexes.

The all industry index is tipped to add 0.4 percent on month after sliding 4.3 percent in October. The previous reading for the leading index was 90.9, while the coincident was at 95.1.

The central bank in Indonesia will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates. The bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 5.00 percent.

Singapore will provide December figures for consumer prices; in November, inflation was up 0.3 percent on month and 0.6 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
01-24-2020, 02:52 AM
Dollar Exhibits Strength Against Peers

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The U.S. dollar gained against most major currencies on Thursday amid continued optimism about growth in the world's largest economy.

The outbreak of the coronavirus in China and the European Central Bank's decision to hold its key rates and asset purchasing program unchanged supported dollar's rise.

The dollar index started off on a subdued note, but gained in strength and rose to 97.80 in late morning trades before paring some gains subsequently. Still, at 97.67, the index was up 0.15% around late afternoon.

The Euro dropped to $1.1037 after the ECB held its key interest rates, asset purchases and forward guidance unchanged and announced the launch of a review of its monetary policy strategy.

The bank said that risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside.

In her post meeting press conference, Lagarde said, "The review will have to do with how we deliver, how we measure, how we communicate when it comes to decision making, publication, outreach."

"We cannot operate as we did back in 2003, which doesn't mean to say that we have to change this, that and the other, but we have to look comprehensively at the effectiveness of our monetary policy," she added.

The dollar is up by about 0.15% against Pound Sterling, at $1.3123.

The yen was in demand on safe-haven appeal amid mounting worries about the impact of the coronavirus.

The yen, which strengthened to 109.27 a dollar, was trading at 109.47 a dollar late afternoon.

The dollar was up against Swiss franc at 0.9692 and marginally down against the loonie at 1.3127.

Against the Aussie, the dollar was little changed with the pair trading at 1.3127.

In U.S. economic news, data from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose to 211,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level of 205,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to climb to 215,000 from the 204,000 originally reported for the previous week.

The Conference Board released a report showing a slightly bigger than expected decrease by its index of leading U.S. economic indicators.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index fell by 0.3% in December after inching up by a revised 0.1% in November.

Economists had expected the leading economic index to dip by 0.2% compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.

Traders were also tracking news about the coronavirus outbreak in China that has spread from Wuhan to several Chinese provinces.

According to reports, deaths from the virus rose to 17 on Wednesday, with nearly 600 cases confirmed. Market participants remain worried about the contagion as the week-long Lunar New Year holidays starts on Friday, when millions of Chinese travel domestically and abroad.

The World Health Organization said today that it is still too early to declare the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern has somewhat eased worries about the virus a bit.

"Make no mistake, this is an emergency in China. But it has not yet become a global health emergency," said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

"At this time, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission outside China, but that doesn't mean it won't happen," Tedros said.

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IFX Gertrude
01-27-2020, 03:31 AM
Economic Calendar Is A Blank Slate On Monday[B]

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There's no economic data on the slate for Monday, with most countries in the Asia-Pacific region celebrating the lunar New Year holiday.

Most of the regional stock are also closed for the holiday, including South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong and Indonesia, among others.

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IFX Gertrude
01-28-2020, 01:46 AM
Japan Producer Prices Hold Steady At 2.1% In December

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Producer prices in Japan were up 2.1 percent on year in December, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.

Producer prices were flat on month after adding 0.2 percent in November.

Among the individual components, prices were up for transportation, communications, finance and insurance. Prices were down for advertising and security services.

For all of 2019, producer prices were up 1.1 percent on year - slowing slightly from the 1.2 percent annual increase in 2018.

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IFX Yvonne
01-29-2020, 08:50 AM
Turkey Economic Confidence Rises For Fourth Month

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Turkey's economic confidence rose for the fourth month in a row in January, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Wednesday.

The economic confidence index increased to 97.1 in January from 96.5 in December.

The latest reading is the highest seen in at least a year.

The latest improvement was led by stronger morale in the services, retail and construction sectors.

The consumer confidence index remained unchanged at 58.8 in January.

The measure of manufacturing industry morale fell to 106.4 in January, while the confidence index for services increased to 95.2.

The confidence measures for retail trade and construction sectors increased to 105.0 and 78.9, respectively, in January.

IFX Gertrude
01-30-2020, 04:37 AM
Australia Q4 Export Prices Slide 5.2% On Quarter

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Export prices in Australia were down 5.2 percent on quarter but rose 4.1 percent on year in the fourth quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

Main contributors to the fall included Metalliferous ores and metal scrap (-9.1 percent); coal, coke and briquettes (-14.7 percent); and gas, natural and manufactured (-2.3 percent). Those offset rises in meat and meat preparations (+6.9 percent).

Import prices were up 0.7 percent on quarter and 1.4 percent on year in Q4.

Main positive contributors included petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+3.8 percent); machinery specialized for particular industries (+1.6 percent); and road vehicles (including air-cushion vehicles) (+0.4 percent).

Those offset falls in fertilizers (excluding crude) (-6.5 percent); and plastics in non-primary forms (-5.5 percent).

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IFX Gertrude
01-31-2020, 01:59 AM
China Manufacturing PMI 50.0 In January

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The manufacturing sector in China fell into stagnation in January, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday - posting a manufacturing PMI score of 50.0.

That's down from 50.2 in December, and it now sits right on the line that separates expansion from contraction. It matched expectations.

The bureau also said its non-manufacturing index came in with a score of 54.1, beating forecasts for 53.0 and up from 53.5 in the previous month.

The bureau's composite index now sits at 53.0, down from 53.4 a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
02-03-2020, 01:41 AM
Australia Building Approvals Sink 0.2% In December

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The total number of building approvals in Australia issued in December was down a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on month in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday - coming in at 14,752.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 5.0 percent following the 10.9 percent jump in November.

On a yearly basis, building approvals advanced 2.7 percent - exceeding expectations for a drop of 1.4 percent following the .8 percent slide in the previous month.

Consents for private sector houses fell 0.1 percent on month and 7.1 percent on year to 8,486 - while consents for private sector dwellings excluding houses eased 0.1 percent on month and surged 19.4 percent on year to 6,087.

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IFX Gertrude
02-04-2020, 12:15 AM
New Zealand Building Permits Surge 9.9% In December

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The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand was up a seasonally adjusted 9.9 percent on month in December, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - coming in at 2,910.

That follows the upwardly revised 8.4 percent drop in November (originally -8.5 percent).

On a yearly basis, building permits spiked 14.0 percent to 37,538.

The annual value of non-residential building work consented was NZ$7.5 billion, up 5.2 percent from the December 2018 year.

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IFX Gertrude
02-05-2020, 04:23 AM
Japan Services PMI Ebbs In January - Jibun Bank

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The services sector in Japan continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Wednesday with a PMI score of 51.0.

That's down from 52.1 in December, although it remain further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, business activity growth was at a four-month high, although business confidence fell to a 29-month low.

Demand conditions improved somewhat, and employment rose further.

Also, the bank's composite index came in at 50.1 - down from 51.1 in the previous month.

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IFX Yvonne
02-06-2020, 07:18 AM
Euro Mixed Ahead Of German Factory Orders

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At 2.00 am ET Thursday, Destatis is scheduled to issue Germany's factory orders for December. Orders are forecast to climb 0.6 percent on month, reversing a 1.3 percent drop in November.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While the euro rose against the franc, it held steady against the rest of major rivals. The euro was worth 1.1000 against the greenback, 120.90 against the yen, 1.0713 against the franc and 0.8471 against the pound as of 1:55 am ET.

IFX Gertrude
02-07-2020, 01:16 AM
Japan Leading Index Data Due On Friday

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Japan is on Friday scheduled to release preliminary December figures for its leading and coincident indexes, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The leading index is tipped to show a score of 91.3, up from 90.8 in November. The coincident is called steady at 94.7.

Japan also will see December figures for household spending and labor cash earnings. Household spending is tipped to fall 1.6 percent on year after sliding 2.0 percent in November. Labor cash earnings are called lower by an annual 0.1 percent after easing 0.2 percent a month earlier.

Australia will see January results for the Performance of Service Index from the Australian Industry Group; in December, the index score was 48.7.

Malaysia will release December numbers for industrial and manufacturing production; in November, they were up an annual 2.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.

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IFX Yvonne
02-10-2020, 07:20 AM
Japan Eco Watchers Current Condition Increases; Outlook Falls

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A measure of the public assessment of the Japanese economy improved for the third month in a row in January, survey data from the Cabinet Office showed on Monday.

The current conditions index of the Economy Watchers' Survey, which measures the current situation of the economy, increased to 41.9 in January from 39.7 in December. Economists had forecast a reading of 39.1.

However, the outlook index that signals future activity fell to a four-month low of 41.8 in January from 45.5 in the previous month. Economists had expected a score of 43.8.

IFX Gertrude
02-11-2020, 02:53 AM
Australia Home Loan Data Due On Tuesday

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Australia will on Tuesday release December numbers for new home loans, setting the pace for a modest day in Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Loans are expected to rise 1.6 percent on month, slowing from 1.8 percent in November. Investment lending is also seen higher by 1.6 percent on month, down from 2.2 percent in the previous month.

Australia also will see January results for the indexes of business confidence and conditions from NAB; in December, their scores were -2 and +3, respectively.

Finally, the markets in Japan are closed on Tuesday in observance of National Day and will reopen on Wednesday.

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IFX Gertrude
02-12-2020, 12:46 AM
New Zealand January Overall Credit Card Spending Rises 0.3%

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The total value of credit card spending in New Zealand added a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.

That was in line with expectations following the 0.6 percent decline in December.

Retail credit card spending fell 0.1 percent on month, missing expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent following the 0.8 percent drop in the previous month.

"Retail card spending has slowed over the last couple of months on the back of a very strong November month," retail statistics manager Sue Chapman said. "The industries that fell this month compared with December had falls that were quite small, with values only falling by NZ$11 million or less."

Spending in the core retail industries (which excludes automotive industries) was down 0.2 percent.

The non-retail (excluding services) category was up NZ$37 million (2.1 percent), and the services category fell NZ$0.8 million (0.3 percent) in January 2020.

By industry, the movements were: fuel, up NZ$8.7 million (1.5 percent); durables, up NZ$4.1 million (0.3 percent); motor vehicles (excluding fuel), up NZ$1.1 million (0.6 percent); apparel, down NZ$1.0 million (0.3 percent); consumables, down NZ$6.9 million (0.3 percent); and hospitality, down NZ$11 million (1.0 percent).

In actual terms, cardholders made 158 million transactions across all industries in January 2020, with an average value of NZ$50 per transaction. The total amount spent using electronic cards was NZ$8.0 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
02-13-2020, 01:36 AM
Japan Producer Prices Rise 0.2% In January

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Producer prices in Japan were up 0.2 percent on month in January, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for a flat reading following the 0.1 percent increase in December.

On a yearly basis, producer prices jumped 1.7 percent - again beating forecasts for 1.5 percent and up sharply from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Export prices were up 0.3 percent on month and down 1.4 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices gained 0.7 percent on month and fell 0.7 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
02-14-2020, 01:14 AM
New Zealand Food Prices Rise 0.6% On Month In January

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Food prices in New Zealand were up a seasonally adjusted 0.6 percent on month in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.

Unadjusted, food prices gained 2.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, fruit and vegetable prices rose 3.7 percent (down 0.3 percent after seasonal adjustment); while meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 2.3 percent; grocery food prices rose 2.4 percent (up 1.3 percent after seasonal adjustment); non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 3.9 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.2 percent.

On a yearly basis, food prices were up 3.56 percent in January.

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IFX Gertrude
02-17-2020, 02:35 AM
Japan GDP Falls 6.3% On Year In Q4

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Japan's gross domestic product was down an annualized 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019, the Cabinet Office said in Monday's preliminary report.

That was well shy of expectations for a decline 3.8 percent following the 0.5 percent increase in the three months prior.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP sank 1.6 percent - again missing forecasts for a decline of 1.0 percent following the 0.1 percent gain in the third quarter.

Nominal GDP was down 1.2 percent on quarter, missing expectations for a drop of 0.6 percent after gaining 0.6 percent in the previous three months.

The GDP deflator was up 1.3 percent on year in Q4, the Cabinet Office said - exceeding expectations for an increase of 1.1 percent and up from 0.6 percent in the three months prior.

Business spending skidded 3.7 percent on quarter, missing forecasts for a decline of 1.6 percent following the 0.5 percent increase in the third quarter.

Private consumption sank 2.9 percent on quarter, missing forecasts for a drop of 2.0 percent following the 0.5 percent gain in the previous three months.

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IFX Gertrude
02-18-2020, 04:49 AM
EUR/USD: dollar continues to show strength, but its position does not look so unwaverable

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Unlike its main competitor - the US dollar, which showed the best start since 2015, the euro seriously upset its fans. The greenback is favored by factors such as increased demand for defensive assets due to the coronavirus epidemic, strong statistics on the United States and more preferred (compared to peers) rates on the US debt market. The euro is being pulled to the bottom by unresolved issues on Brexit, the deterioration of the political landscape in the EU, disappointing macro statistics on the eurozone and the threat of a trade conflict between Washington and Brussels.

European GDP expanded by a modest 0.1% in the fourth quarter, while the German figure did not show growth at all. Experts recently interviewed by Reuters believe that by 2022, eurozone GDP will increase on average quarterly by 0.2-0.3, and by the end of 2019 it will accelerate by 0.9%. Given that the largest countries in the eurozone - France and Germany - receive about 40% of their income from foreign trade, there is reason to believe that in the near future the economy of the currency bloc may face even greater difficulties amid a slowdown in the growth of Chinese GDP associated with the epidemic coronavirus.

The successors to Angela Merkel as German Chancellor intend to fight for power in the country. The United Kingdom and the EU can not yet find common ground on a trade deal, which increases uncertainty and contributes to the outflow of capital from the EU. The ECB's ultra-soft monetary policy has made it unprofitable for both Europeans and banks to keep funds "at home" because of negative rates in the region.

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Last weekend, the US trade mission reported that in March, Washington will increase the duty on aircraft imported from the EU from 10% to 15%. Apparently, these are just flowers. Over the past ten to twelve years, America has had a huge deficit in foreign trade with the EU. According to the head of the White House, Donald Trump, European duties on American goods are too high. Therefore, it is not surprising that the data on European trade balance published last Friday aroused the anger of the owner of the Oval Office. The trade surplus of the eurozone with the United States increased by 11% in 2019, to 152.6 billion. Obviously, after reaching a trade deal with Beijing, the White House intends to use all leverage to conclude an agreement with the EU.

The weakness of the eurozone economy, increased political risks in the region and concerns about a trade war between Washington and Brussels are forcing investors to get rid of the single European currency. The EUR/USD pair sank to its lowest level since April 2017.

Investment banks have already begun to actively reduce forecasts for the main currency pair. In particular, Credit Agricole analysts believe that at the end of 2020 EUR/USD will be trading near 1.13, and not at 1.16, as previously assumed. Danske Bank specialists went even further: they expect to see the euro fall in December not to $1.15, but to $1.08.

However, it should be recognized that the positions of the greenback do not look so unshakable. Data on US retail sales for November December were revised downward, while industrial production in the country decreased for the fourth time in the last five months. This allowed Goldman Sachs and Barclays to lower forecasts for US GDP growth in the first quarter from 1.7% to 1.4% and from 1.5% to 1.1%, respectively. Therefore, one should not be surprised that the minutes of the January meetings of the Fed and the ECB will be used by speculators in order to take profit on shorts in EUR/USD. In this regard, the breakthrough of the bulls of resistance at 1.0870 will increase the likelihood of a pullback.

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IFX Gertrude
02-19-2020, 02:15 AM
Japan Data On Tap For Wednesday

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Japan is scheduled to release December numbers for core machine orders and January trade data, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Machine orders are expected to fall 8.9 percent on month and 1.3 percent on year after jumping 18.0 percent on month and 5.3 percent on year in November.

Imports are tipped to fall 2.0 percent on year after sinking 4.9 percent in December. Exports are called lower by an annual 7.0 percent after sliding 6.3 percent in the previous month. The trade deficit is pegged at 1,684.8 billion yen following the 152.5 billion yen shortfall a month earlier.

Australia will see January results for the Westpac leading index and for skilled vacancies, as well as Q4 numbers for wage prices.

In December, the leading index added 0.1 percent on month and vacancies rose 0.6 percent on month. Wage prices are called steady at 0.5 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
02-20-2020, 02:12 AM
Australia January Unemployment Rate Rises To 5.3%

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The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.3 percent in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for 5.2 percent and was up from 5.1 percent in December.

The Australian economy added 13.500 jobs last month to 12,995,400 people, again surpassing forecasts for a gain of 10,000 jobs following the gain of 28,900 jobs in the previous month.

Full-time employment increased by 46,200 to 8,882,200 people and part-time employment decreased by 32,700 to 4,113,300 people.

Unemployment increased by 31,000 to 725,900 people.

The participation rate was 66.1 percent, exceeding expectations for 66.0 percent - which would have been unchanged from the month prior.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased by 8.1 million hours to 1,781.8 million hours.

The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate increased by 0.3 pts to 8.6 percent. The monthly underutilization rate increased by 0.5 pts to 13.9 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
02-21-2020, 12:55 AM
Japan Inflation Data On Tap For Friday

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Japan is on Friday scheduled to release January figures for consumer prices, headlining a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Overall inflation is expected to gain 0.7 percent on year, slowing from 0.8 percent in December. Core CPI is tipped to gain an annual 0.8 percent, up from 0.7 percent in the previous month.

Japan also will see February readings for the manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank and the services and composite PMIs from Nikkei. In January, the manufacturing PMI had a score of 48.8, while the services PMI was at 51.0 and the composite came in at 50.1.

Japan also will see December data for the all industry activity index, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 0.3 percent on month - slowing from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

Malaysia will see January figures for consumer prices; in December, inflation was up 0.2 percent on month and 1.0 percent on year.

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IFX Yvonne
02-24-2020, 09:58 AM
German Business Confidence Improves In February

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Germany's business confidence improved in February, reports said citing survey data from the ifo institute on Monday.

The business climate index rose to 96.1 in February from 96.0 in the previous month. The score was above the forecast of 95.3.

The assessment of current situation weakened from last month, while expectations improved in February.

The current conditions index came in at 98.9 in February versus consensus of 98.6. At the same time, the expectations index rose to 93.4 compared to economists' forecast of 92.1.

IFX Gertrude
02-26-2020, 01:01 AM
Australia Construction Work Data Due On Wednesday

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Australia will on Wednesday release Q4 numbers for construction work done, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Construction work is expected to fall 1.0 percent on quarter after losing 0.4 percent in the three months prior.

Japan will provide January figures for supermarket sales; in December, sales were down 3.3 percent on year.

Singapore will see January data for industrial production; in December, industrial production was up 4.1 percent on month and down 0.7 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
02-27-2020, 03:44 AM
New Zealand Trade Deficit NZ$340 Million In January

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New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$340 million in January, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday.

That beat expectations for a shortfall of NZ$549 million following the NZ$547 million surplus in December.

Exports climbed an annual 8.8 percent or NZ$382 million in January to NZ$4.73 billion, exceeding forecasts for NZ$4.44 billion after coming in at NZ$5.54 billion a month earlier.

The leading contributor to the rise was exports of meat and edible offal, up NZ$187 million (31 percent) to NZ$800 million. Milk powder, butter, and cheese rose NZ$115 million (7.7 percent) to NZ$1.6 billion.

Exports to China were up NZ$302 million (31 percent) to NZ$1.3 billion, led by a rise in milk powder, butter, and cheese (up NZ$143 million); beef (up NZ$77 million); and logs, wood, and wood articles (up NZ$32 million).

Exports to the United States were up NZ$69 million (16 percent) to NZ$489 million. The rise was led by casein and caseinates (up NZ$23 million) and beef (up NZ$24 million).

Imports were down 4.0 percent on year or NZ$212 million to NZ$5.07 billion versus expectations for NZ$5.00 billion, which would have been roughly unchanged from the previous month.

This fall was led by vehicles, parts, and accessories, down NZ$116 million (17 percent) to NZ$591 million. Fertilizers also fell NZ$51 million (48 percent) to NZ$57 million.

On an annual basis, goods exports rose NZ$3.0 billion (5.2 percent) to NZ$60.3 billion, marking the first time it has reached NZ$60 billion. Goods imports rose NZ$400 million (0.6 percent) to NZ$64.2 billion. The annual trade balance was a deficit of NZ$3.9 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
02-28-2020, 03:19 AM
Australia Private Sector Credit Gains 0.3% In January

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Private sector credit in Australia was up 0.3 percent on month in January, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Friday - exceeding forecasts for 0.2 percent, which would have been unchanged from the previous month.

On a yearly basis, private sector credit was up 2.5 percent - again topping expectations for 2.4 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading.

Housing credit was up 0.3 percent on month and 3.1 percent on year, while personal credit lost 0.6 percent on month and 5.0 percent on year and business credit gained 0.5 percent on month and 2.8 percent on year.

Broad money was up 0.4 percent on month and 4.2 percent on year.

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IFX Yvonne
03-02-2020, 07:33 AM
BoJ Chief Vows To Ensure Stability In Financial Markets

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Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday said the bank will ensure stability in the financial markets via asset purchases.

"The Bank of Japan will closely monitor future developments, and will strive to provide ample liquidity and ensure stability in financial markets through appropriate market operations and asset purchases," he said in a statement.

He noted that global financial and capital markets have been unstable with rising uncertainties about the outlook for economic activity due to the spread of the novel coronavirus.

IFX Gertrude
03-03-2020, 02:41 AM
Japan Monetary Base Jumps 3.6% In February

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The monetary base in Japan was up 3.6 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - coming in at 510.631 trillion yen.

That follows the 2.9 percent increase in January.

Banknotes in circulation were up 2.0 percent on year, while coins in circulation gained 2.1 percent.

Current account balances gained 4.0 percent, including a 3.1 percent jump in reserve balances.

The adjusted monetary base surged an annual 12.4 percent to 521.104 trillion yen.

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IFX Gertrude
03-04-2020, 02:29 AM
Australia GDP On Tap For Wednesday

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Australia is on Wednesday scheduled to release Q4 numbers for gross domestic product, highlighting a busy day in Asia-Pacific economic activity. GDP is expected to gain 0.4 percent on quarter and 2.0 percent on year after rising 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.7 percent on year in the previous three months.

Australia also will see February data for the Performance of Construction Index from AiG; in January, the index score was 41.3.

China will see February results for the services and composite indexes from Caixin; in January, their scores were 51.8 and 51.9, respectively.

Japan will see final February numbers for the services and composite indexes from Jibun Bank; their previous scores were 46.7 and 47.0, respectively.

New Zealand will provide January figures for building permits; in December, permits were up 9.9 percent.

Malaysia will provide January data for imports, exports and trade balance. In December, imports were worth 73.82 billion ringgit and exports were at 86.40 billion ringgit for a trade surplus of 12.58 billion ringgit.

The Philippines will release February figures for consumer prices; in January, overall inflation was up 0.6 percent on month and 2.9 percent on year, while core CPI gained an annual 3.3 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
03-05-2020, 02:17 AM
Australia Trade Surplus A$5.210 Billion In January

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Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$5.210 billion in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - down 3.0 percent on month.

That exceeded expectations for a surplus of A$4.80 billion following the A$5.223 billion surplus in the previous month.

Exports were down 3.0 percent on month to A$40.122 billion,

Non-monetary gold fell A$735 million (34 percent), non-rural goods fell A$714 million (3 percent) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell A$8 million. Rural goods rose A$236 million (6 percent). Services credits rose A$54 million (1 percent).

Imports sank 3.0 percent on month to A$34.911 billion.

Capital goods fell A$640 million (10 percent), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell A$466 million (4 percent) and consumption goods fell A$19 million. Non-monetary gold rose A$225 million (60 percent). Services debits fell A$101 million (1 percent).

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IFX Gertrude
03-06-2020, 01:48 AM
Japan Household Spending Sinks 3.9% On Year In January

The average of household spending in Japan was down 3.9 percent on year in January, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - coming in at 287,173 yen.

That was in line with expectations following the 4.8 percent decline in December.

The average of monthly income per household stood at 484,697 yen, up an annual 2.1 percent.

Individually, spending was down for food, housing, fuel, furniture, clothing, medical care, communication, education and recreation.

Disposable income was up 2.3 percent and consumption expenditures fell 4.9 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
03-09-2020, 02:42 AM
Japan Has Y612.3 Billion Current Account Surplus

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Japan had a current account surplus of 612.3 billion yen in January, the ministry of Finance said on Monday - up 6.6 percent on year.

That was shy of expectations for 623.5 billion yen and up from 524.0 billion yen in December.

The trade balance reflected a deficit of 985.1 billion yen - also missing forecasts for a shortfall of 962.0 billion yen following the 120.7 billion yen surplus in the previous month.

The adjusted current account saw a surplus of 1,626.8 billion yen, shy of forecasts for 1,664.1 billion yen and down from 1,852.0 billion yen a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
03-10-2020, 02:49 AM
Japan M2 Money Stock Climbs 3.0% On Year In February

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The M2 money stock in Japan was up 3.0 percent on year in February, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday - coming in at 1,039.8 trillion yen.

That follows the 2.8 percent increase in January.

The M3 money stock gained an annual 2.5 percent to 1,375.4 trillion yen following the 2.3 percent gain in the previous month. Included in M3, the M1 stock jumped an annual 6.0 percent.

The L money stock climbed 2.7 percent on year to 1,839.2 trillion yen - roughly steady from a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
03-11-2020, 01:33 AM
New Zealand February Overall Credit Card Spending Unchanged In February

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New Zealand's overall credit card spending was flat on month, seasonally adjusted, in February, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - just shy of forecasts for 0.1 percent following the 0.3 percent gain in January.

Retail credit card spending gained 0.6 percent on month - beating forecasts for a decline of 0.3 percent following the 0.1 percent drop in the previous month.

Spending in the core retail industries (which excludes the vehicle-related industries) gained 0.8 percent on month.

By industry, the movements were: consumables, up NZ$51 million (2.4 percent); durables, up NZ$12 million (0.8 percent); motor vehicles (excluding fuel), up NZ$0.6 million (0.3 percent); fuel, down NZ$1.4 million (0.2 percent); apparel, down NZ$1.8 million (0.6 percent); and hospitality, down NZ$8.5 million (0.8 percent).

The total value of electronic card spending, including the two non-retail categories (services and other non-retail), was up by NZ$1.9 million (relatively flat) in February 2020. This follows a 0.2 percent increase in the previous month.

The non-retail (excluding services) category was down NZ$15 million (0.8 percent), and the services category fell NZ$3.4 million (1.1 percent) in February 2020.

Retail spending using electronic cards was NZ$5.7 billion, up 8.6 percent (NZ$452 million) from February 2019.

In actual terms, cardholders made 159 million transactions across all industries in February, with an average value of NZ$49 per transaction. The total amount spent using electronic cards was NZ$7.8 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
03-12-2020, 03:40 AM
Japan Producer Prices Sink 0.4% In February

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Producer prices in Japan were down 0.4 percent on month in February, the Bank of Japan said on Thursday.

That was shy of expectations for a decline of 0.3 percent following the 0.2 percent increase in January.

On a yearly basis, producer prices advanced 0.8 percent - again missing forecasts for a gain of 1.1 percent after climbing 1.7 percent in the previous month.

Export prices gained 0.3 percent on month and fell 2.1 percent on year, the bank said, while import prices added 0.1 percent on month and dropped 1.5 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
03-12-2020, 11:40 PM
New Zealand Manufacturing PMI Climbs To 53.2 - BusinessNZ

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The manufacturing sector in New Zealand turned to expansion for the first time in three months, the latest survey from BusinessNZ revealed on Friday with a manufacturing PMI score of 53.2.

That's up from 49.8 in January, and it moves above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, production, deliveries, finished stocks, employment and new orders all were in expansion territory - although the main focus will be on the coming months and the effect of Covid-19.

"Looking at comments from respondents, there was a noticeable increase in Covid-19 being mentioned, either directly or through the impact on shipping from China," said Catherine Beard, BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing. "Even those who made positive comments tempered it with concerns about the months ahead."

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IFX Gertrude
03-18-2020, 09:46 AM
Italy Industrial Orders Rise For Second Month

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Italy's industrial orders rose for the second straight month in January, figures from Istat showed on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted industrial orders rose 1.2 percent in January, slower than 1.3 percent in December.

Orders from the domestic market rose 3.7 percent and those from the foreign market increase 9.1 percent.

On an annual basis, industrial orders fell 1.8 percent in January, after a 5.7 percent rise in the preceding month.

Data also showed that the industrial sales grew 5.3 percent month-on-month in January, after a 2.8 percent fall in the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.1 percent decline.

On a year-on-year basis, industrial sales rose 3.8 percent in January, after a 1.5 percent decrease in the prior month. Economists had expected a 0.9 percent fall.

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IFX Gertrude
03-19-2020, 05:07 AM
RBA Cuts Rates; To Buy Government Bonds

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Reserve Bank of Australia decided to lower its key interest rates further to a record low and also to purchase government bonds, as the spread of covid-19 disrupts economic activity.

At the meeting on Thursday, the Reserve Bank Board headed by Philip Lowe, decided to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.25 percent.

The bank will purchase government bonds in the secondary market and keep the yield on 3-year bonds at around 0.25 percent.

In order to support credit supply to small and medium-sized businesses, the RBA will provide a three-year funding facility to authorized deposit-taking institutions at a fixed rate of 0.25 percent.

Further, exchange settlement balances at the Reserve Bank will be remunerated at 10 basis points, rather than zero.

The bank will also continue its one-month and three-month repo operations in its daily market operations until further notice. In addition, the RBA will conduct longer-term repo operations of six-month maturity or longer at least weekly, as long as market conditions warrant.

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IFX Gertrude
03-20-2020, 05:10 AM
New Zealand Credit Card Spending Falls In February

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New Zealand's credit card spending declined in February after rising in the previous month, figures from Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed on Friday.

Credit card spending fell 0.6 percent month-on-month in February, after a 1.2 percent increase in January. In December, credit card spending had fallen 0.9 percent.

Domestic billing decrease 0.3 percent monthly to NZ$3.296 billion and overseas billings rose 4.0 percent to NZ$398 million.

On a year-on-year basis, overall credit card spending increased 2.5 percent in November, following a 3.7 percent rise in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
03-23-2020, 04:45 AM
New Zealand Ramps Up Stimulus To Combat Covid-19 Impact

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The New Zealand government on Monday announced further support for the economy as the country prepares for the Alert Level 4 in the fight against covid-19.

The central bank has decided to implement NZ$30 billion asset purchase programme as the negative economic implications of the coronavirus outbreak continued to intensify.

The cabinet agreed to remove the cap on the wage subsidy scheme, which will inject a further NZ$4 billion into the economy over the next eleven weeks.

The changes mean the forecast cost of the wage subsidy scheme is being lifted to NZ$9.3 billion Finance Minister Grant Robertson, said. This assumes 50 percent of businesses access the scheme.

The government, central bank and retail banks have agreed in principle to significant temporary support for mortgage holders and a business finance guarantee scheme for those impacted by COVID-19.

The cabinet agreed to freeze all rent increases and to look to extend no-cause terminations to protect people during this difficult time.

"Like the rest of the world, we are facing the potential for devastating impacts from this virus," Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, said. "But, through decisive action, and through working together, we have a small window to get ahead of it."

The monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to implement a Large Scale Asset Purchase programme (LSAP) of government bonds.

The central bank will buy up to NZ$30 billion of government bonds in the secondary market over the next twelve months.

The bank said it will monitor the effectiveness of the programme and make adjustments and additions if needed.

Last week, the central bank had cut its interest rate by 75 basis points to 0.25 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
03-24-2020, 06:03 AM
Japan Manufacturing Sinks To 44.8 In March - Nikkei

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The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Tuesday with a preliminary manufacturing PMI score of 44.8.

That's down from 47.8 in February, and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The services PMI from Jibun Bank was even more troubling as it plummeted all the way down to 32.7 in March from 46.8 in February - largely reflecting the chaos wrought by the global COVID-19 pandemic.

That dragged the composite PMI down to 35.8 from 47.0 a month earlier.

Among the individual components, output, new orders, new export orders, backlogs, stocks of purchases and quantities of purchases all saw stronger rates of decline. Employment fell into contraction after expanding in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
03-25-2020, 05:42 AM
Malaysia Inflation Slows In February

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Malaysia's consumer price inflation slowed in February, figures from the Department of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

The consumer price index rose 1.3 percent year-on-year in February, after a 1.6 percent increase in January. Economists had expected a 1.4 percent rise.

Among the main groups, prices for miscellaneous goods and services grew 2.5 percent annually in February. Prices for transport rose 2.4 percent and those of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, and communication increased 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices remained unchanged in February.

The core CPI rose 1.3 percent annually in February.

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IFX Gertrude
03-26-2020, 05:27 AM
European Economics Preview: Bank Of England Rate Decision Due

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The interest rate announcement from the Bank of England is due on Thursday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 3.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK retail sales data for February. Economists forecast sales to grow 0.2 percent on month, following a 0.9 percent increase in January.

Also, Germany Gfk consumer confidence survey data is due. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index is seen at 7.1 in April versus 9.8 in March.

At 4.00 am ET, the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research is set to issue economic tendency survey data.

Half an hour later, Sweden foreign trade data is due from Statistics Sweden.

At 5.00 am ET, the European Central Bank is set to issue economic bulletin and money supply data. Economists forecast euro area M3 growth to remain unchanged at 5.2 percent in February.

At 8.00 am ET, the Bank of England publishes the outcome of the monetary policy meeting. Economists expect the bank to retain its record low interest rate and to expand asset purchase programme to GBP 635 billion from GBP 435 billion.

In the meantime, the Czech National bank announces its monetary policy decision. The two-week repo rate is likely to be lowered to 1.25 percent from 1.75 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
03-27-2020, 04:45 AM
Tokyo Overall Inflation Gains 0.4% On Year In March

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Overall consumer prices in the Tokyo region of Japan were up 0.4 percent on year in March, the Ministry of Communications and Internal Affairs said on Friday.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.3 percent and was unchanged from the February reading.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, also advanced an annual 0.4 percent. That was in line with expectations and down from 0.5 percent in the previous month.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall inflation was up 0.1 percent and core CPI was unchanged.

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IFX Yvonne
03-30-2020, 10:27 AM
Dollar: no longer a winner, but not yet defeated

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According to analysts, the past week has become a period of test for the greenback. It survived the worst week since the 2008 financial crisis and experts believe that in the future, the greenback will have to fight to regain its rightful place under the financial sun.

Earlier, a positive outlook for the dollar was the fact that many investors ran to it as a defensive asset. However, in this current situation, this outlook is slowly being debunked. The greenback has experienced the worst week in the last 10 years, and experts are sure that the worst is yet to come.

This month, the greenback grew amid active purchases by investors seeking to maintain their capital in the most liquid currency in the world. The fall of the US dollar was promoted by the impressive measures taken by the American monetary authorities. Recall that the White House initiated a $2.2 trillion government spending package to curb the collapse in global markets provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar decisions were made by many European central banks. Thanks to their coordinated efforts to increase the supply of dollars, other currencies were able to stay afloat.

The most important indicator for the American economy as well as for the economy of other countries is the effect of the COVID-19. This was demonstrated by the report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States last Friday. The explosive growth of this indicator significantly weakened the greenback, almost instantly turning it from a triumphant currency into a defeated one.

However, experts expect that the macroeconomic report, which is expected this Friday, April 3, will correct the situation a little. It will feature Non-farm payrolls that reflect the state of the US economy during the rampant COVID-19 pandemic. Note that this indicator has always provoked high volatility in the EUR/USD pair, and now it can turn out to be off-scale.

According to preliminary forecasts, almost all components of the non-farm can go into a deep minus. It is expected that the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector will decrease by 80,000, while 120,000 in the private sector, and by 10 thousand in the production sector. Experts expect a sharp decrease in the share of the economically active population and hourly wages. The current situation may be in the hands of the USD bulls, which cannot be said about the bears. Experts said that the latter non-farms can be very disappointing.

Morning of March 30, volatility in the EUR / USD pair remains relatively high, but not unlimited. The classic tandem cruised near the marks of 1.10731.1075, trying to get out of the current cycle. In the future, the EUR / USD pair managed to overcome this barrier and reach the levels of 1.10791.1080.

IFX Gertrude
03-31-2020, 05:59 AM
China Manufacturing PMI 52.0 In March

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The manufacturing sector in China moved back into expansion in March, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.0 - beating forecasts for 45.0.

That's up sharply from 35.7 in February, and it moves back above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The non-manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3, also exceeding expectations for 42.0 and up from 29.6 in the previous month.

The composite PMI posted a score of 53.0, up from 28.9 a month prior.

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IFX Gertrude
04-01-2020, 05:31 AM
Contraction Accelerates For Vietnam Manufacturing Sector

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The manufacturing sector in Vietnam continued to contract in March, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from IHS Markit revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 41.9.

That's down from 49.0 in February and it slips further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, last month saw the sharpest declines in output, new orders and employment in survey history. Business confidence tumbled, while firms scaled back purchasing and inventory holdings.

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IFX Gertrude
04-02-2020, 05:23 AM
South Korea Inflation Data Due On Thursday

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South Korea will on Thursday release March numbers for consumer prices, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In February, overall inflation was flat on month and up 1.1 percent on year, while core CPI added 0.1 percent on month and gained 0.5 percent on year.

Japan will provide March figures for monetary base; in February, the monetary base climbed 3.6 percent on year.

Australia will see February figures for job vacancies; in January, vacancies were up 1.6 percent on month.

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IFX Gertrude
04-03-2020, 05:55 AM
Singapore Retail Sales Decrease In February

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Singapore retail sales decline at the fastest pace in February, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Friday.

Retail sales declined 8.6 percent year-on-year in February, following a 5.3 percent fall in January.

Motor vehicle sales rose 1.3 percent annually in February, following a 33.6 percent fall in the previous month.

Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales decreased 10.2 percent in February, after a 0.6 percent increase in the preceding month.

Sales of wearing apparel and footwear declined the most by 41.0 percent in February and those of food and alcohol, and department stores decreased 40.5 percent and 36.3 percent, respectively.

On a monthly basis, retail sales dropped 8.9 percent in February, after a 0.2 percent rise in the prior month.

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IFX Gertrude
04-06-2020, 02:39 AM
Australia Inflation Forecast Due On Monday

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Australia will on Monday see the March inflation forecast from TD Securities, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In February, the forecast suggested a decline of 0.1 percent on month and an increase of 1.6 percent on year.

Australia also will see March data on job advertisements from ANZ; in February, job ads were up 0.7 percent on month.

New Zealand will see March figures for commodity prices from ANZ; in February, prices were down 2.1 percent on month.

Finally the markets in China and Thailand are closed on Monday for the Qingming Festival and Chakri Day, respectively; they will re-open on Tuesday.

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IFX Gertrude
04-07-2020, 05:55 AM
Estonia Inflation Eases In March

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Estonia's consumer price inflation eased in March, data from Statistics Estonia showed on Monday.

The consumer price index rose 0.9 percent year-on-year in March, after a 2.0 percent increase in February. In January, inflation was 1.6 percent.

Inflation was mainly affected the most by more expensive food and non-alcoholic beverages. Electricity were cheaper, while petrol and diesel fuel were more expensive, the agency reported.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.7 percent in March, after a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
04-08-2020, 05:37 AM
S&P Lowers Australia's Rating Outlook To Negative

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S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on Australia's rating outlook to negative from stable as coronavirus, or COVID-19, outbreak weakened its fiscal outlook.

The rating agency said the negative outlook reflects a substantial deterioration of Australia's fiscal headroom at the 'AAA' rating level.

The outbreak of coronavirus has posed a severe economic and fiscal shock. The Australian economy is set to plunge into recession for the first time in almost 30 years, causing a substantial deterioration of the government's fiscal headroom at the 'AAA' rating level.

Nonetheless, the ratings were affirmed at 'AAA'. S&P observed that the triple A rating on Australia benefit from the country's strong institutional settings, its wealthy economy, and monetary policy flexibility.

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IFX Gertrude
04-09-2020, 05:12 AM
BoK Rate Decision On Tap For Thursday

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The Bank of Korea will wrap up its monetary policy meeting on Thursday and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The BoK is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at the record low of 0.75 percent after the central bank's emergency cut last month of 50 basis points to deal with the Covid-19 crisis.

Japan will see March results for its consumer confidence index, with forecasts suggesting a score of 35.0 - down from 38.4 in February.

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IFX Gertrude
04-10-2020, 04:03 AM
Japan Overall Bank Lending Rises 2.0% In March

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Overall bank lending in Japan was up 2.0 percent on year in March, the Bank of Japan said on Friday - coming in at 546.248 trillion yen.

That follows the 2.1 percent yearly increase in February.

Excluding trusts, bank lending rose an annual 2.2 percent to 476.139 trillion yen after gaining 2.2 percent in the previous month.

Lending from trusts was steady at 1.0 percent, worth 70.109 trillion yen, while lending from foreign banks skyrocketed an annual 28.5 percent to 3.655 trillion yen.

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IFX Gertrude
04-13-2020, 05:31 AM
Malaysia Industrial Production Rises In February

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Malaysia's industrial production grew at a faster-than-expected pace in February, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Monday.

Industrial production rose 5.8 percent year-on-year in February, following a 0.6 percent increase in January. Economists had expected a 0.7 percent rise.

Manufacturing output grew 5.6 percent in February, following a 2.2 percent rise in the previous month.

Among other sectors, mining and quarrying output increased 6.1 percent and electricity output rose 6.8 percent.

Sales of textile, wearing apparels, leather and footwear gained 6.7 percent and those of petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic, and wood, furniture, paper products and printing grew by 6.3 percent, each.

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IFX Gertrude
04-14-2020, 05:32 AM
Malaysia Jobless Rate Rises In February

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Malaysia's unemployment rate rose in February, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Tuesday.

The jobless rate rose to 3.3 percent in February from 3.2 percent in January. A similar rate of unemployment was seen in the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, jobless rate rose marginally to 3.3 percent in February from 3.2 percent in the previous month.

The number of unemployed increased to 525,200 in February from 511,700 in the previous month.

The number of employed increased to 15.34 million in February from 15.31 million in the prior month.

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IFX Gertrude
04-15-2020, 05:33 AM
Australia Consumer Sentiment Logs Record Fall

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Australia's consumer confidence declined the most on record in April after the coronavirus outbreak evolved from serious concern to full-blown pandemic, survey data from Westpac showed on Wednesday.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment plunged 17.7 percent to 75.6 in April from 91.9 in March.

This was the biggest monthly decrease in forty seven year history of the survey, taking the indicator beyond the global financial crisis lows.

The survey reflects the large shocks to jobs and spending. Moreover, there was a collapse in confidence in the housing market.

All five component sub-indexes fell in April. The biggest falls were in the near term outlook for the economy and in attitudes towards spending - reflecting the immediate effects of the shut-down, Westpac noted.

The indicator measuring past family finances decreased 14.8 percent to an eight-year low of 70.4 and the outlook for family finances slid 6.6 percent to 90.9.

The 'economy, next 12 months' sub-index logged a record fall of 31 percent to 53.7 in April. At the same time, the index measuring the outlook for long-term, say five years, dropped moderately by 3.8 percent to 87.0 in April.

Further, the 'time to buy a major household item' plunged 31.6 percent to 76.2 in April. This was the lowest reading since the record low of 71 set in October 2008.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index jumped 8.2 percent in April following the sharp 8.5 percent increase in March. At 158.1, the index was at a five year high. RSS feed

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IFX Gertrude
04-16-2020, 04:48 AM
UK Retail Sales Decline At Record Pace: BRC

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British retail sales declined at a record pace in March due to measures taken to fight the spread of coronavirus, data from the British Retail Consortium, or BRC, showed Thursday. According to BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor, retail sales decreased 4.3 percent on a yearly basis in March, the sharpest fall since records began in 1995.

At the same time, like-for-like sales declined 3.5 percent from the same period last year.

"The headline figure masked even more dramatic swings: food and essentials faced an unprecedented surge in demand in the early part of March, only to drop significantly into negative growth after the lockdown and introduction of social distancing in stores," Helen Dickinson, chief executive at BRC, said.

The closure of non-essential shops led to deserted high streets and high double-digit declines in sales, which even a rise in online shopping could not compensate for, Dickinson added.

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IFX Gertrude
04-17-2020, 04:59 AM
China GDP Contracts 9.8% In Q21

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China's gross domestic product was down a seasonally adjusted 9.8 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

That was in line with expectations following the 1.5 percent gain in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, GDP sank 6.8 percent - missing expectations for a drop of 6.0 percent following the 6.0 percent increase in the previous three months.

The bureau also said that fixed asset investment tumbled an annual 16.1 percent in March, shy of forecasts for a decline of 15.0 percent following the 24.5 percent plunge in February.

Industrial production dipped 1.1 percent on year, beating forecasts for a fall of 5.8 percent after dropping 13.5 percent in the previous month.

Retail sales plunged 15.8 percent on year, missing forecasts for a fall of 10.0 percent after skidding 20.5 percent a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
04-20-2020, 05:34 AM
China Cuts Benchmark Lending Rates

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China's central bank on Monday reduced its benchmark lending rates, as widely expected, as the economy contracted for the first time at least since 1992 amid coronavirus outbreak.

The one-year loan prime rate was lowered by 20 basis points to 3.85 percent and the five-year loan prime rate was cut by 10 basis points to 4.65 percent.

The loan prime rate is fixed monthly based on the submission of 18 banks, though Beijing has influence over the rate-setting. This new lending rate replaced the central bank's traditional benchmark lending rate in August 2019.

The People's Bank of China last week reduced its one-year medium-term lending facility, or MLF, rate to 2.95 percent from 3.15 percent and injected CNY 100 billion through the MLF operation.

In March, the PBoC had reduced the reserve requirement ratio for qualified banks and the reverse repo rate.

September should mark the point when the PBoC hits the "ultra-low" interest rate level, Iris Pang, an ING economist said.

After that, the PBoC may need to rely more on reserve requirement ratio cuts than rate cuts. The PBoC may use RRR cuts more than rate cuts before September to delay its policy rates touching ultra-low levels, the economist noted.

The economy shrank 6.8 percent on a yearly basis in the first quarter, which was the first decline since the nation began reporting quarterly data in 1992. The economy had expanded 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019.

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IFX Gertrude
04-21-2020, 05:27 AM
European Economics Preview: German ZEW Economic Confidence Due

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Corrected first para
Economic confidence survey results from Germany and labor market statistics from the UK are due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics releases UK unemployment data. The jobless rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.9 percent in three months to February.

In the meantime, foreign trade from Switzerland and wholesale prices from Germany are due.

At 3.00 am ET, the Czech Statistical Office is set to release producer price data for March. Economists forecast prices to rise at a slower pace of 0.2 percent after climbing 1.4 percent in February.

Half an hour later, Statistics Sweden issues unemployment data for March. The jobless rate stood at 8.2 percent in February.

At 4.00 am ET, industrial production and producer price figures are due from Poland. Industrial production is forecast to fall 2.1 percent on year in March, reversing a 4.9 percent rise in January.

At 5.00 am ET, Germany's ZEW economic confidence survey results are due. Economists forecast the economic confidence index to rise to -42.3 in April from -49.5 in March.

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IFX Gertrude
04-22-2020, 05:42 AM
Malaysia Consumer Prices Drop In March

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Malaysia's consumer prices dropped in March, figures from the Department of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

The consumer price index declined 0.2 percent year-on-year in March, after a 1.3 percent increase in February. Economists had expected a 0.1 percent fall.

Among the main groups, prices for transport declined 8.9 percent annually in March and clothing and footwear prices decreased by 1.3 percent.

Meanwhile, cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose at a faster pace of 1.2 percent following a 0.8 percent rise in February.

At the same time, prices for miscellaneous goods and services grew 2.6 percent and those of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and communication increased 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices fell 1.2 percent in March.

The core CPI rose 1.3 percent annually in March.

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IFX Gertrude
04-23-2020, 05:31 AM
New Zealand Credit Card Spending Declines In March

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New Zealand's credit card spending declined at the fastest rate in March, figures from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed on Thursday.

Credit card spending fell 9.1 percent month-on-month in March, following a 0.7 percent decrease in February. Credit card spending fell for the second straight month.

Domestic billing decreased 7.2 percent monthly to NZ$3.35 billion and overseas billings declined 24.9 percent to NZ$338 million.

On a year-on-year basis, overall credit card spending dropped 8.2 percent in March, after a 2.2 percent rise in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
04-24-2020, 03:39 AM
Japan Inflation Steady At 0.4% In March

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Consumer prices in Japan were up 0.4 percent on year in March, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - in line with expectations and unchanged from the February reading.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, also was up an annual 0.4 percent. That also matched expectations and was down from the 0.6 percent gain in the previous month.

Individually, prices were up for food, housing, furniture, clothing, medical care, communications and recreation. They were down for fuel and education.

On a monthly basis, overall inflation was flat, while core inflation was down 0.1 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
04-24-2020, 05:42 AM
Dollar Mostly Subdued Against Peers

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The U.S. dollar recovered after a mid-session setback and traded slightly higher against some of its peers on Thursday, with traders digesting economic data from across the globe and tracking news about the virus pandemic and geopolitical issues.

The dollar index, which dropped to 100.04 around mid morning, recovered gradually and was last seen hovering around 100.50, up 0.12% from previous close.

Against the Euro, the U.S. dollar firmed up to $1.0794 from Wednesday's close of $1.0823. The euro area private sector suffered its steepest falls in business activity and employment due to the measures taken to contain the spread of coronavirus, flash survey data from IHS Markit showed.

The flash IHS Markit composite output index plummeted to an all-time low of 13.5 in April, down from a prior record low of 29.7 in March. This was the largest monthly collapse in output recorded in over two decades of survey data collection.

The services Purchasing Managers' Index plunged to a record low 11.7 from 26.4 in March, while the manufacturing PMI came in at 33.6, down from 44.5 in the previous month.

Against Pound Sterling, the dollar edged down to $1.2340.

The Japanese Yen gained against the dollar, trading at 107.64 a dollar, compared to 107.75 a dollar Wednesday evening.

The Aussie gained against the dollar, rising to $0.6358 from its previous close of $0.6323.

The Swiss franc eased to CHF 0.9739 from CHF 0.9713, while the Loonie firmed up to 1.4124 a dollar, from $1.4161, thanks to another jump in crude oil prices.

In U.S. economic news, more than 4 million people filed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended April 18th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday. That reflects a continued decline from the nearly 7 million people that filed first-time claims in the last week of March.

The Labor Department said initial jobless claims dropped to 4.427 million, a decrease of 810,000 from the previous week's revised level of 5.237 million. Economists had expected jobless claims to slump to 4.200 million from the 5.245 million originally reported for the previous week.

A report released by the Commerce Department showed new home sales plunged by 15.4% to an annual rate of 627,000 in March after tumbling by 4.6% to a revised rate of 741,000 in February. With the steep drop, new home sales pulled back further off the more than twelve-year high of 777,000 set in January.

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IFX Gertrude
04-27-2020, 05:37 AM
Japan Rate Decision On Tap For Monday

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The Bank of Japan will warp up its monetary policy meeting on Monday and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at -0.10 percent, although it may introduce other means of stimulus to combat the economic woes brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic.

China will see March figures for industrial profits; in February, profits plummeted 38.3 percent on year.

Hong Kong will release March numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. In February, imports were worth 277.11 billion HKD and exports were at 238.56 billion HKD for a trade deficit of 38.55 billion HKD.

Finally, the markets in New Zealand are closed on Monday for ANZAC Day and will reopen on Tuesday.

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IFX Gertrude
04-28-2020, 05:35 AM
European Economics Preview: French Consumer Confidence Data Due

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Consumer confidence survey data from France is due on Tuesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.45 am ET, France's Insee is set to issue monthly consumer confidence survey results. The confidence index is forecast to fall sharply to 83 in April from 103 in March.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's quarterly unemployment data is due from the statistical office INE. The jobless rate is expected to rise to 15.6 percent in the first quarter from 13.78 percent in the previous quarter.

At 3.30 am ET, Sweden's central bank is set to release its monetary policy report. In the meantime, retail sales and foreign trade figures are due from Statistics Sweden.

Half an hour later, IHS Markit releases Austria's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results for April.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Distributive Trades survey results. The UK retail sales balance is seen at -40 percent in April versus -3 percent in March.

At 8.00 am ET, Hungary's central bank interest rate decision is due. The bank is expected to hold its key rate at 0.90 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
04-29-2020, 05:33 AM
Australia Inflation Rises 0.3% In Q1

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Overall consumer prices in Australia were up 0.3 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2020, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. That exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent and was down from 0.7 percent in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, inflation climbed 2.2 percent - again topping forecasts for 2.0 percent and up from 1.8 percent in Q4.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean was up 0.5 percent on quarter and 1.8 percent on year following the 0.4 percent quarterly increase and the 1.6 percent yearly gain in the previous three months.

The RBA's weighted median was up 0.5 percent on quarter and 1.7 percent on year after adding 0.4 percent on quarter and 1.3 percent on year in the fourth quarter.

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IFX Gertrude
04-30-2020, 05:43 AM
Australia Private Sector Credit Climbs 1.1% In March

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Private sector credit in Australia was up 1.1 percent on month in March, the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Thursday - accelerating from 0.4 percent in February.

On a yearly basis, credit jumped 3.6 percent - slowing from 3.9 percent in the previous month.

Housing credit was up 3.0 percent on month and 3.1 percent on year, while personal credit fell 1.4 percent on month and 6.5 percent on year and business credit advanced 2.9 percent on month and 6.3 percent on year.

Broad money was up 2.7 percent on month and 6.3 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
05-04-2020, 03:48 AM
Vietnam Manufacturing PMI Falls To 32.7 In April - IHS Marketing

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The Vietnam manufacturing sector continued to contract in April, and at a faster rate because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the latest survey from IHS Marketing revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 32.7.

That's down from 41.9 in March and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, there were severe declines in output and new orders, while employment was also down at a record pace.

Firms were pessimistic regarding the 12-month outlook.

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IFX Gertrude
05-05-2020, 05:54 AM
Aussie Slightly Down After RBA Decision

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The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark lending rate at 0.25 percent, as expected. Following the announcement, the aussie fell slightly against its major rivals.

The aussie was trading at 68.67 against the yen, 1.6925 against the euro, 0.6440 against the greenback and 1.0627 against the kiwi around 12:34 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
05-06-2020, 05:50 AM
European Economics Preview: Germany Factory Orders Data Due

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Factory orders from Germany and final composite Purchasing Managers' survey from euro area are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is set to release Germany's factory orders for March. Economists forecast orders to fall 10 percent on month after falling 1.4 percent in February.

At 3.00 am ET, retail sales figures are due from Hungary and the Czech Republic. The Czech retail sales are expected to fall 9 percent annually, following February's 7.4 percent increase.

At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit releases Spain's services PMI data. The PMI is seen at 10.0 in April versus 23.0 in March.

At 3.45 am ET, Italy's services PMI data is due. Economists expect the index to decline to 9.0 in April from 17.4 in March. Thereafter, final PMI survey data is due from France and Germany at 3.50 and 3.55 am ET, respectively.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit publishes euro area final composite PMI data. Economists expect the index to drop to 13.5 in April, as initially estimated, from 29.7 in March.

Half an hour later, UK IHS Markit/CIPS construction PMI survey data is due. The construction PMI is forecast to drop to 22.0 in April from 39.3 in March.

At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat releases euro area retail sales data. Sales are forecast to decline 10.5 percent on month in March, reversing a 0.9 percent rise in February.

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IFX Gertrude
05-07-2020, 05:36 AM
China Services PMI Rises To 44.4 In April - Caixin

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The services sector in China continued to contract in April, albeit at a slightly slower pace, the latest survey from Caixin showed on Thursday with a Services PMI score of 44.4.

That's up from 43.0 in March, although it remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, total new work fell at a modest rate, although export sales tumbled at a near-record pace. Companies trimmed their staffa numbers for the third month in a row.

The survey also showed that the composite index ticked up to 47.6 in April from 46.7 in March.

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IFX Gertrude
05-08-2020, 06:03 AM
Malaysia Jobless Rate Rises In March

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Malaysia's unemployment rate rose in March, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Friday.

The jobless rate rose to 3.9 percent in March from 3.3 percent in February. In the same month last year, the unemployment rate was 3.4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, jobless rate rose to 3.9 percent in March from 3.3 percent in the previous month.

The number of unemployed increased to 610,500 in March from 525,200 in the previous month.

The number of employed decreased to 15.23 million in March from 15.34 million in the prior month.

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IFX Gertrude
05-11-2020, 05:36 AM
New Zealand Electronic Card Spending Plummets In April

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The total value of overall electronic spending in New Zealand was down a seasonally adjusted 48 percent or NZ$3.5 billion in April, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday - following the 8.6 percent drop in March.

Spending in the retail industries fell 47 percent (NZ$2.6 billion), while spending in the core retail industries - which excludes the automobile-related industries) fell 44 percent (NZ$2.2 billion).

The non-retail (excluding services) category was down NZ$686 million (47 percent), and the services category fell NZ$200 million (84 percent) in April 2020.

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IFX Gertrude
05-12-2020, 05:47 AM
China Inflation Slows To 3.3% In April

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Consumer prices in China were up 3.3 percent on year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That was beneath expectations for an annual increase of 3.7 percent and down from 4.3 percent in March.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices sank 0.9 percent - again missing forecasts for a decline of 0.5 percent after sliding 1.2 percent in the previous month.

The stats bureau also reported that producer prices tumbled 3.1 percent on year - well shy of expectations for a drop of 2.6 percent and down sharply from the 1.5 percent decline a month

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IFX Gertrude
05-13-2020, 05:49 AM
Japan Overall Bank Lending Jumps 3.0% On Year

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Overall bank lending in Japan was up 3.0 percent on year in April, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday - coming in at 553.486 trillion yen.

That's up sharply from the 2.0 percent annual increase in March.

Excluding trusts, bank lending gained 3.1 percent on year to 482.863trillion yen - up from 2.2 percent a month earlier.

Lending from trusts rose 1.7 percent to 70.622 trillion yen- up from 1.0 percent in the previous month. Lending from foreign banks surged 25.7 percent to 3.506 trillion yen.

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IFX Gertrude
05-14-2020, 05:52 AM
Australia Unemployment Rate Rises To 6.2% In April

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The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 6.2 percent in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. That was up from 5.2 percent in March but was well beneath expectations for 8.3 percent.

The Australian economy lost 594,300 jobs last month to 12,418,700 - missing forecasts for a decline of 575,000 following the increase of 5,900 jobs in the previous month.

Full-time employment decreased 220,500 to 8,656,900 people and part-time employment decreased 373,800 to 3,761,800 people.

Unemployment increased 104,500 to 823,300 people. Underutilization rate increased 5.9 pts to 19.9 percent.

The participation rate was 63.5 percent in April, well shy of expectations for 65.2 percent and down from 66.0 percent a month earlier.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 163.9 million hours to 1,625.8 million hours.

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